A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Employment

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
We are continually being told that more of us are employed than ever before.
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe points out (correctly) that a <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/cd2f4ebe-8e89-48fc-9d73-511ad37ff580/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2020_02_07_7481.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22committees/commrep/cd2f4ebe-8e89-48fc-9d73-511ad37ff580/0000%22">higher proportion</a> of us are in jobs than at any other time. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says an extra <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-national-press-club">1.5 million</a> Australians have found jobs since the Coalition took office, 260,000 of them in the past year.
Yet in many ways the job market is weak, as unusually low wage growth and an uncommon reluctance to change jobs make clear.
A deeper look into the statistics provides clues as to why.
First, many of the extra jobs created have been part-time.
Part-time work, service industries
Over the life of the Coalition government between 2013 and 2019, total employment grew at an annual rate of 2% but the total hours worked increased at an annual rate of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">only 1.1%</a> – that’s about half the rate of 1.9% that hours grew during the Hawke/Keating Labor era.
It means the underemployment rate hasn’t come down as much as the unemployment rate.
In fact, it has risen. The proportion of workers who are underemployed – who would like to work more hours than they do – has climbed from 7.9% to 9.1% during the life of the Coalition government.
Over the same period the unemployment rate has fallen only a few points, from 5.7 to 5.3%.
The few industries in which hours worked have increased faster than the average have been <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/880/Employment_changing_patterns_table_1.pdf?1582611535">mainly service industries</a>, more likely than others to employ women.
The change in the distribution of industries has also been reflected in the a change in the distribution of occupations.
For both men and women, the proportion in blue collar, clerical and sales jobs has <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/881/Employment_changing_patterns_Table_2.pdf?1582611657">fallen over time</a>.
<hr>
Type of occupation by share of employment, men
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316995/original/file-20200225-24690-1uovak0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316995/original/file-20200225-24690-1uovak0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Shares of community &amp; personal service and sales are each under 10%) <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/fair-share-hardback">Source: Bell &amp; Keating, Fair Share, ABS 6291.0.55.003</a>
<hr>
The share of jobs that do not require a university degree has consequently fallen. The share that require higher skills has risen.
By and large, these changes in the distribution of jobs by industry and occupation and the growth of part-time opportunities has tended to favour women.
<hr>
Type of occupation by share of employment, women
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316999/original/file-20200225-24701-1hwlv97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316999/original/file-20200225-24701-1hwlv97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Blue collar includes technicians and trades, machinery operators and drivers and labourers. <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/fair-share-hardback">Source: Bell &amp; Keating, Fair Share, ABS 6291.0.55.003</a>
<hr>
Many men now find themselves in jobs that don’t have good growth prospects.
It means that their job security is less than in the past and their bargaining power for higher wages is less than in the past.
In sum, the skewed distribution in where the jobs are being created suggests that many Australians, particularly men, are missing out. Highly educated men (and women) can still get good jobs, but in most industries and occupations, prospects are stagnating.
Risk averse workers
A likely consequence is that workers, and perhaps especially male workers, have become less keen to take risks, including the risk of asking to be paid more.
Another risk is attempting to change jobs. Job-switching typically leads to higher pay – not only for those who switch, but also, to a lesser extent, for those who stay as higher pay flows through.
Recent treasury research found that job-switching rates fell by about <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/2019-04_wage_growth_in_australia_lessons_from_longitudinal_microdata.pdf">2 percentage points</a> between 2003 and 2015 (the end-date of its data). It is very likely to have fallen since.
The treasury research found that each 1 percentage point decline in job-switching was associated with a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/s2019-396067">½ percentage point decline</a> in average annual wage growth – meaning the decline of 2 percentage points or more would account for a substantial part of the recent decline.
<hr>
Wage growth, annual
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317041/original/file-20200225-24664-54xsfn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317041/original/file-20200225-24664-54xsfn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Annual change in total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0">Source: ABS 6345.0</a>
<hr>
Broad implications
The less fluid and less dynamic labour market might also be impacting the transmission of technological change and productivity growth.
Adoption of new technologies accelerates when workers switch to the most productive firms.
The treasury finds that the difference in employment growth between high and low productivity firms has fallen by <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/2019-04_wage_growth_in_australia_lessons_from_longitudinal_microdata.pdf">1½ percentage points</a> since 2012, the point at which productivity growth began to slow.
And declining confidence about job prospects might also be affecting political attitudes.
Today, the Labor Party no longer has the exclusive loyalty of workers. Instead, ever since John Howard targeted and gained the support of “tradies”, the Coalition has increasingly sought support from workers who feel less secure, both about their own jobs and also about the future more broadly.
Often these people respond to what they see as a loss of security and status by attaching themselves to strong leaders. They can become loyal to inherited values, and can be hostile to outsiders or change, viewing them as challenges to inherited values. They can mistrust experts, especially when the advice of those experts clashes with their inherited beliefs and what they see as their traditional way of life.
It is possible that Morrison won the last election because (like Trump) he appealed to people who felt they have lost security and status, and opposed change. He offered reassurance, partly because of his style, but also because of his resistance to change.
If Labor is to become competitive, it needs to develop policies that will restore confidence among workers that they have a good future. It isn’t an impossible task.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132249/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-keating-528224">Michael Keating</a>, Visiting Fellow, College of Business &amp; Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jobs-market-is-nowhere-near-as-good-as-youve-heard-and-its-changing-us-132249">original article</a>.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The Australian jobs market is nowhere near as good as you've heard: Michael Keating

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
It's a challenging times for policymakers.
I don't know of a single obsever who believes that the unemployment rate is going to fall to below 5 per cent this year, let alone towards full employment, however low that might prove to be.
There was another soft result from SEEK's job ads series, down by 7 per cent over the year to January, and the labour force update for January was also distinctly underwhelming.
Employment increased by +13,500, as the annual growth in employment to decelerated further to +1.94 per cent.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z-pr9FnAlWM/Xk5YTURc8RI/AAAAAAAA0WE/ZbHyF76etN4mz4xvZnYBnk1g8cdbUJ3MACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1446">
Part-time employment growth (+2.8 per cent) has continued to outstrip the growth in full-time positions (+1.7 per cent).
Employment growth remained solid in Victoria, to be up +91,000 over the year, with Queensland next up at +67,000, but New South Wales (+43,000) has clearly come off the boil, and there's all but nothing meaningful to speak of elsewhere.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kygDR0HIlSI/Xk5YUQYmqXI/AAAAAAAA0WM/nz14Z7lF1pMhBY4Fma_lhsaYOfklLGFaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1361">
With the participation rate ticking back up a notch, the unemployment rate jumped from 5.09 per cent back up to 5.28 per cent in January, which was disappointing, if unsurprising. \
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NkUsoIMfAIQ/Xk5YTNm-O9I/AAAAAAAA0WA/Zu5CMyJdwJobSntPPkRgM23mRXrz3OArACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1396">
The disruption to the economy in January saw the unemployment rate in Victoria saw spike quickly to 5.4 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms, suggesting that far too much slack remains.
The smoother trend figures plotted below show only New South Wales (4½ per cent) as remotely sitting in the right postcode. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wZogq354els/Xk5YTQBPNTI/AAAAAAAA0WI/ZG9AIxfIEmQVF4jjjIFIBE17u6KVJSIXgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1382">
Finally, the trend result for monthly hours worked was just +1.3 per cent higher year-on-year, which is also a lacklustre read and well below the rate of employment growth.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zrshZf9Zwv4/Xk5YUePWn4I/AAAAAAAA0WQ/aLBqw0rk3gIKEf3QeyEFahyorw5Co8y0QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1388">
Overall, it wasn't a terrible report, but the widely predicted increase in spare capacity does appear to be playing out, with more of the same likely to be in the post as the Chinese travel ban persists throughout February and beyond. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Employment growth remains a challenge for policy makers: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia’s job market remained resilient at the turn of the year, despite the bushfire crisis impacting large swathes of the country. In January, ANZ’s job ads measure rose by almost 4 per cent – the biggest gain since June 2019. The pick-up follows the creation of 67,000 new jobs in November and December, pushing the jobless rate back down to 5.1 per cent – near 8-year lows.
Aussie unleaded petrol prices fell to 5-month lows last week. Pump prices are averaging a smidgen over $1.40 a litre across the nation. In the more competitive retail fuel markets on the east coast, prices at the bowser are currently averaging around $1.30 a litre – at the lowest levels since September 2019.
So why are petrol prices so low? The retail petrol price discounting cycle is keeping a lid on prices in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. But motorists should fill up now. Pump prices are close to the bottom of the cycle - now 20 days old – and will begin lifting by the weekend.
Concerns about China’s oil demand due to the coronavirus impact on economic activity are another factor pushing down Aussie petrol prices. In fact, the US Nymex crude oil price plummeted by 16 per cent in January – its worst start to a year since 1991. And the Singapore benchmark gasoline price - the largest component of fuel prices paid by motorists - fell to 8-month lows of US$66.25 a barrel last week. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $2.90 or 2.9 per cent to $98.53 a barrel or 61.97 cents a litre – also an 8-month low.
What do the figures show? Petrol prices
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol fell by 8.3 cents to 140.3 cents a litre last week. The metropolitan price fell by 12.0 cents to 137.0 cents a litre and the regional price fell by 1.1 cents to 146.8 cents a litre.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 14.0 cents to 133.1 c/l), Melbourne (down by 12.9 cents to 138.5 c/l), Brisbane (down by 12.6 cents to 135.1 c/l), Adelaide (down by 22.2 cents to 138.2 c/l), Perth (down by 1.9 cents to 140.0 c/l), Darwin (down by 1.1 cents to 138.7 c/l), Canberra (down by 0.2 cents to 146.4 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.2 cents to 155.5 c/l).
The smoothed gross retail margin (2-month rolling average) for unleaded petrol rose from 15.06 cents a litre to a 7½-month high of 15.29 cents a litre (24-month average: 13.2 cents a litre).
The national average diesel petrol price fell by 0.4 cents to 149.8 cents a litre over the past week. The metropolitan price fell by 0.4 cents to 148.4 cents a litre and the regional price was down by 0.4 cents to 151.0 cents a litre.
Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 127.5 cents a litre, down 2.9 cents over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 131.5 cents a litre, down by 3.5 cents over the past week.
MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for unleaded fuel in capital cities today: Sydney 129.5c; Melbourne 132.0c; Brisbane 130.4c; Adelaide 146.7c; Perth 129.6c; Canberra 146.3c; Darwin 138.4c; Hobart 155.3c.
The key Singapore gasoline price fell by US$3.20 or 4.6 per cent last week to 8-month lows of US$66.25 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $2.90 or 2.9 per cent to $98.53 a barrel or 61.97 cents a litre – also an 8-month low.
Building Approvals - December
Council approvals to build new homes fell by 0.2 per cent in December to 14,752 units. But approvals are up by 2.7 per cent from a year ago – the strongest annual growth rate in 19 months.
House approvals fell by 0.1 per cent and apartment approvals were down by 0.3 per cent.
In trend terms, overall approvals rose by 2.1 per cent in December – the biggest increase in over 2 years.
Over the past year 172,510 new homes were approved, below the decade average of 196,675 units.
Dwelling approvals across states/territories: NSW (down 30.5 per cent); Victoria (up 34.0 per cent); Queensland (down 5.7 per cent); South Australia (down 20.1 per cent); Western Australia (up 5.4 per cent); Tasmania (down 8.9 per cent). In trend terms: Northern Territory (up 4.7 per cent); ACT (up 1.0 per cent).
The value of all commercial and residential building approvals rose by 13.4 per cent in December. Residential approvals rose by 2.6 per cent with new building up by 3.2 per cent, but alterations &amp; additions were down by 1.8 per cent. And commercial building rose by 30.9 per cent.
Over the year to December, building approvals totalled $115.4 billion, 15.5 per cent above the decade average.
Job advertisements - January
ANZ job advertisements rose by 3.8 per cent in January - the biggest lift in 7 months. But ads were still down by 11.8 per cent over the year to 149,544 in seasonally adjusted terms.
Inflation gauge - January
The Melbourne Institute monthly headline inflation gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in January. The annual growth rate lifted from 1.4 per cent in December to 1.8 per cent in January. The smoothed 12-month annual average of the gauge is at 1.67 per cent in October – just above the slowest growth rate in 2½ years.
The trimmed mean gauge lifted by 0.4 per cent in January to be up 1.6 per cent from a year ago – below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent underlying inflation target.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Aussie residential building activity is showing more evidence of stabilising. In fact, building approvals in trend terms rose by 2.1 per cent in December – the biggest monthly gain since September 2017. Apartment projects are driving volatile outcomes in NSW and Victoria. But the strong rebound in Sydney and Melbourne home prices, record-low borrowing costs and still-solid population growth could underpin demand and the eventual bottoming-out in the construction sector by late 2020.
Reserve Bank policymakers will be heartened that multiple interest rate cuts supported jobs growth in late 2019. While the impact of bushfires on the labour market is still unknown, ANZ’s leading indicator of jobs growth made a promising start to 2020.
Commonwealth Bank Group economists continue to expect another interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank in the coming months to support the economy.
RYAN FELSMAN is a Senior Economist CommSec
</body></html>

Australia's job market remains resilient despite bushfires: Ryan Felsman

<html><body>
Higher participation rates in Australia's labour market come from those with mortgages over $300,000, the RBA have found.
The RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle spoke on employment and wage growth at the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) National Conference 2019 in Canberra today.
Debelle noted that in recent decades female participation has grown, and the RBA believe this is due to the increase in level of mortgage debt of home owners.
"The rise in debt levels has broadly coincided with the increase in the participation rate of females," Debelle advised, however suggested it was difficult to establish which way causality is going.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/26/Labour%20Force%20RBA.jpg" alt="">
Debelle then posed three questions.
"Are debt levels higher because more households have two incomes and can afford to borrow more?
"Or does the need to borrow more to afford housing drive the decision to participate more?
"Or is it the case that the low level of income growth in recent years has meant that households have more debt than they anticipated and need to work longer to pay it down?" 
There's around 95 per cent of labour participation from males who have mortgage debts of over $300,000, while females have grown to over 80 per cent.
To read the full speech, <a href="/news/strong-employment-not-leading-to-improved-unemployment-or-wage-growth-rbas-guy-debelle">click here</a>.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
</body></html>

wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Highest labour participation to those with mortgages over $300,000

<html><body>
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has risen to 5.3 per cent over October, according to statistics from the ABS released today.
The RBA may have been forgiven to be upbeat after last month where the unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.3 per cent, however the latest batch of figures will no doubt play on their minds heading in to the last official interest rate meeting of the year next month.
Unemployment is now at its highest rate since July last year. The RBA are targeting an unemployment rate at 4.5 per cent.
The employment rate fell by some 19,000 jobs over the month, mainly due to the fact participation rate (people looking for jobs), ticked down to 66 per cent.
Under employment rose 0.2 per cent to 8.5 per cent.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/14/unemployment%20rate.jpg" alt="">
Source: Twitter @JFosterFM
Callam Pickering, APAC economist at Indeed Australia, noted the youth unemployment problem.
"Australia's youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) back above 12%. Australia has a big youth unemployment problem and we don't talk about it enough," he tweeted.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/14/unemployment%20age.jpg" alt="">
Michael Tull, assistant national secretary community &amp; public sector union, tweeted his thoughts on the overall state of the economy.
"Retail terrible, wages awful and now unemployment up...but hey there’s apparently a budget surplus so everything must be great."<a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1n1174f r-1loqt21 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/auspol?src=hashtag_click" data-focusable="true"> </a>
 
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Unemployment edges higher in October

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Both the Reserve Bank and Federal Treasury refer to the “strength” of the job market. And while the jobless rate has only eased gently to 5.2 per cent, the reading is historically low. The workforce participation rate is near record highs. And jobs have increased for a record 36 months. Simply, more people are looking for work and finding it, meaning that spending power has continued to lift.
But there is marked polarisation between job ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’. And this gap won’t close with more rate cuts – it will require action by Federal, State/Territory and Local Governments to create jobs outside of NSW and Victoria. That is, policy that is more micro rather than macro.
Of the 87 SA4 regions, 33 have a jobless rate either at or below the Reserve Bank’s 4.5 per cent ‘target level’. Rate cuts would probably only be successful in driving Sydney and Melbourne property prices higher than drive jobless rates lower.
What do the figures show?
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/5/Jobless.png" alt="">
Regional unemployment
Unemployment rates were assessed across the 87 SA4 regions where data is available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Data is available up to September and rolling annual averages were used for assessment to adjust for seasonality.
In the year to September the highest unemployment rate could be found in the Queensland Outback (13.3 per cent), followed by Moreton Bay North (Qld 8.9 per cent) and Logan-Beaudesert (Qld) and Adelaide North (both 8.0 per cent).
Lowest unemployment rates can be found in Sydney: Sutherland and Inner West (2.2 per cent). The Warrnambool and South West region in Victoria follows (2.7 per cent).
If the latest unemployment rates are compared with ‘normal’ levels (decade averages), encouragingly 62 regions have jobless rates that are below ‘normal – or better than the ‘average’ experience. Again, NSW and Victorian regions dominate the list but the average jobless rate in Cairns for the year to September was 4.7 per cent – almost 37 per cent lower than the decade average of 7.5 per cent.
At the other end of the scale, the 13.3 per cent jobless rate in Queensland-Outback was almost 41 per cent above the decade-average of 9.4 per cent.
Warrnambool, Bendigo, Cairns, Richmond-Tweed and the NSW New England and North West are areas showing what is possible with job creation.
Detailed workforce data
In the year to September a record 58.53 per cent of people aged 60-64 years were in the job market as well as a record 14.58 per cent of people aged 65 years plus. Workforce participation of those aged 15-19 years hit a 12-month low of 54.88 per cent.
In the year to September, 3.56 million people weren’t in jobs or were looking for work – the lowest level in seven years.
Purchasing manager’s survey
The Commonwealth Bank/Markit ‘flash’ purchasing manager survey for manufacturing fell from 50.3 to 50.1 in October. The services index fell from 52.4 to 51.8. And the composite reading eased from 52.0 to 50.7. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion of activity.
“Although business activity increased for the second month running in October, the rate of expansion softened and was only marginal. This reflected a weaker rise in services activity, as manufacturing production stabilised following a fall in September.”
“New orders rose at the weakest pace for six months. As with activity, service providers saw growth of new business soften in October. Meanwhile, manufacturing new orders decreased for the first time in the three-and a-half year survey history. This was despite a marginal increase in manufacturing new export orders.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/5/Jobless%202.png" alt="">
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides detailed labour market figures one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment &amp; unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy.
The Commonwealth Bank Purchasing Manager indexes (PMIs) for services and manufacturing are released each month. The Australian PMIs are the local equivalents of similar indexes released for other countries. The PMIs are amongst timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMIs are useful not just in showing how the sectors are performing but in providing some sense about where they are heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
In many parts of the country – in fact around 40 per cent of regional Australia – the jobless rate is below the Reserve Bank full employment target of 4.5 per cent. Many parts of Sydney claim a jobless rate of 2-3 per cent. The question is how much further these jobless rates can fall with more rate cuts. The Reserve Bank may disagree, but the benefit of future rate cuts is questionable.
Federal, State and Local governments need to focus on skill gaps and education and training needs as well as taking a more regional focus for job creation.
How close is Australia from a peak in workforce participation? The answer lies with senior Australians and the number who now re-think permanent retirement. More people in work serves to boost spending power.
Commonwealth Bank Group economists tip a rate cut on February 4 2020.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
</body></html>

cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Rate cuts won't strengthen regional job markets: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Employment increased by a stronger than expected 41,100 jobs in July recovering from a loss of -2,300 jobs (revised) in June.
Annual employment growth slightly increased to 2.6%, from 2.4% the month prior.
Full time employment rose by 34,500 building on a gain of 21,100 in June. Part-time employment rose by 6,700 after being preceded by a loss of 23,300 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% retaining an uptrend from a low of 4.9% in February. The participation rate increased marginally to 66.1%.
Hours worked were up 0.5% after being flat last month and annual growth has recovered to 2.0%.
Underemployment in the labour market rose slightly to 8.4% compared to 8.2% in June, and remains very high.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/job%20growth%20vs%20unemployment%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/15/job%20growth%20vs%20unemployment%201.png" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
Jobs growth improved strongly in July, albeit after last month’s glacial pace of additions was revised to a net loss of jobs. 
However, a rise in the participation rate prevented the unemployment rate from falling.
 Meanwhile, despite a modest improvement in the last few months our Jobs Leading Indicator continues to point to slower jobs growth ahead on the back of a slowing trend in jobs ads, job vacancies and hiring plans, so we still see a further slowdown in jobs growth over the next six months as the housing construction downturn flows through the economy. 
This is likely to see trend jobs growth continue to fall well below the roughly 19,000 new jobs needed each month to absorb new entrants to the labour force. 
As a result we continue to see unemployment drifting up to 5.5% by the end of the year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/employment%20.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/15/employment%20.png" alt="">
 
Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital
 
Labour market underutilisation ticked up to 13.6% in July from 13.4% in June as underemployment rose indicating that “spare capacity” in the labour market remains very high.
 The comparable measure in the US is just 7% and it fell last month! With jobs growth expected to slow in Australia, labour market underutilisation is likely to remain high and this in turn will prevent much if any pick up in still weak wages growth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/labour%20marekt.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/15/labour%20marekt.png" alt="">
Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital
Implications
The rise in unemployment from 4.9% earlier this year and continuing high underemployment indicates that significant “spare capacity” remains in the labour market and in the economy.
The rebound in employment growth seen in July may provide the RBA with some encouragement and breathing space.
However, while the RBA’s back-to-back rate cuts, tax refunds for low and middle income earners and strong infrastructure investment should help limit the rise in unemployment to around 5.5%, they are unlikely to be enough get unemployment down to the 4.5% or less needed to see stronger wages growth and higher inflation.
And in the meantime the risks of even slower global growth on the back of the escalating US/China trade war are rising as indicated by falling share markets and bond yields racing to zero and below.
As a result we remain of the view that the RBA will have to cut rates further and see the next 0.25% cut coming next month followed by another cut in November ultimately taking the cash rate down to 0.5%.  
Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
</body></html>

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

RBA on track to cut to 0.5% by year end: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Employment rose for the eighth straight month, up by 25,700 in March after a revised 10,700 increase in jobs in February (previously reported as a 4,600 increase in jobs). Full-time jobs rose by 48,300, but part-time jobs fell by 22,600. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 15,000.
Hours worked rose by 0.7 per cent in the month to be up 3.0 per cent over the year.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.9 per cent to 5.0 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms the jobless rate remained steady at a 10-year low of 5.0 per cent.
Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 65.6 per cent to 65.7 per cent. In trend terms the 65.6 per cent participation rate remained at record highs.
Unemployment across states in March: NSW 4.3 per cent (February 4.3 per cent); Victoria 4.6 per cent (4.7 per cent); Queensland 6.1 per cent (5.4 per cent); South Australia 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Western Australia 6.0 per cent (5.9 per cent); Tasmania 6.7 per cent (6.5 per cent). In trend terms, Northern Territory 4.4 per cent (4.5 per cent); ACT 3.6 per cent (3.5 per cent).
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending. Amongst stocks affected are Fairfax, West Australian Newspapers, Seek Limited, McMillan Shakespeare and Skilled Group.
What does it all mean?
Given the recent softening reported by a raft of business surveys, many analysts had been braced  for a weaker job result in March. But they needn’t have feared. Yet another month where more people were looking for jobs with more people finding work. The jobless rate ticked up from 4.9 per cent to 5 per cent. But that is part of the normal monthly volatility. In trend terms the jobless rate remains locked at a decade low of 5 per cent. Get used to seeing a jobless rate around 5 per cent – there isn’t sufficient positive or negative economic momentum to drive the jobless rate away from 5 per cent.
It is worth noting that the proportion of people in jobs or looking for work (participation rate) is at all-time highs in trend terms with the jobless rate at decade lows.
There was good news for Queensland with the trend jobless rate at 5½-year lows. And the West Australian trend jobless rate is at 15-month lows.
The Reserve Bank expects further tightening of the job market to lead to higher wages and higher prices. That expectation remains on track with SEEK today reporting that national wage growth had ticked up to 2.6 per cent.
Yet another bad month for the ‘gloomsters’. More people are finding work and more are people feeling secure in their positions. In turn, this will lead to stronger spending growth, boosting the outlook for consumer and housing-dependent businesses.
The Reserve Bank can rest easy for another month. Rate cuts are not on the near-term horizon, neither are rate hikes. The Reserve Bank believes the best contribution it could provide is to leave the cash rate steady at record lows. And we heartily agree.
The Aussie dollar rose from US71.70 cents to US71.93 cents before settling back near US71.75 cents. Currency markets are comfortable with the economic state of play.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist of CommSec
</body></html>

Yet another solid month of job gains: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
White collar has driven employment gains but the surge in construction broke a 20yr downtrend for metal manufacturing employment.
<ul>
<li>In the year to February 2019, total employment grew 284k or 2.3% which is explained by the expansion of white collar employment and the lion share of this occurred in NSW and Victoria. Of the remaining sectors, the loss of employment in construction and manufacturing sectors was offset by modest gains in leisure &amp; hospitality with some help from smaller gains in retail, education and health.</li>
<li>White collar employment was boosted by solid gains in public administration &amp; safety (118.2k) and professional, scientific &amp; technical services (93.4k). The gains in leisure &amp; hospitality sectors was split between accommodation &amp; food services (+29.7k) and other household services (+43k).</li>
<li>Flat employment in education &amp; health hides losses of –36k in NSW and –31.5k in WA which were offset by growth in Victoria (44.5k) and Queensland (30.9k).</li>
<li>Goods production sector employment declined 41.6k due to a collapse in manufacturing employment (-63.7k) only partly offset by gains in mining (+16.7k) and agriculture (+10.5k).  </li>
<li>Construction had been a significant positive for employment with its share of total employment hitting a record high of 9.6% in 2018 Q1. But through the year it eased to 9.0% with the decline in construction employment making a –0.4ppt drag on annual total employment growth (total ex-construction was +2.7ppt contribution/total 2.3%yr).</li>
<li>The correction in construction has been focused in NSW and WA with most job losses occurring in construction services. At this stage, building and heavy engineering appear to be peaking, rather than correcting, but these sectors tend to lag the services involved with establishing a construction project.</li>
<li>Manufacturing dependent on construction expanded employment in 2018, breaking a longer-term down trend. While public infrastructure should support steel demand, at least for the near term, growth is likely to be somewhat less than it has been.</li>
</ul>
In the year to February, white collar employment explained just about all of the 282k growth in employment. We define white collar employment as those employees in finance, real estate &amp; hiring services, professional, scientific &amp; technical services, other business services and government services.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%201.jpg">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
Household services (accommodation &amp; food services, education &amp; training, health care &amp; social assistance and arts &amp; recreation) has been the powerhouse of employment growth for some time (see chart over) but in the last year there has been a shift of focus with households services employment slowing to 1.7%yr contributing just 0.6ppt to the annual pace of total employment growth.
Meanwhile, business services (information, media and telecommunications, finance &amp; insurance services, rental, hiring &amp; real estate, professional, scientific &amp; technical and administrative support services) employment growth accelerated to 5.2%yr contributing 1.0ppt to annual total employment growth but the big surge came from the 23.5%yr lift in government employment contributing 1.3ppt to the 2.3%yr pace in total employment.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac 
Looking at the state data highlights where the big swings have occurred. In NSW employment gains were driven by leisure &amp; hospitality and white collar while education &amp; health plus construction were the main drags on employment. There was surge in employment from public administration &amp; safety (+83.5k in the year) and professional, scientific &amp; technical services added 58.9k; both of these are white collar and business services sectors.
Accommodation &amp; food services (household services) added a healthy 40.6k but from there it was a drop to +26.7k from agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing (production sector). Leading the decline in NSW employment was –33.5k from construction (production sector) and education &amp; training surprised with a 30.4k decline (household services) and manufacturing shed 19.9k (production sector).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%203.jpg">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%203.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Westpac
Contrast this with Victoria where education &amp; health plus white collar employment drove the gains. In the year to February total employment grew more in Victoria than NSW (132.7k vs. 120.3k in the year) and at the same time the distribution amongst the sectors was a bit more even. Public administration &amp; safety led the charge in Victoria but the 39.7k gain was somewhat smaller than the gain by this sector in NSW (+83.5k).
Victorian healthcare &amp; social assistance (household sector) added 35k employees where as it contracted –4.2k in NSW, professional, scientific &amp; technical employment lifted 23.1k in Victoria and while public administration surged in NSW it grew a more modest 21.8k in Victoria.
Leading the decline in Victoria was the –23.0k in accommodation &amp; food services employment while manufacturing shed 14.3k employees and retail trade (household sector) was not much better at –12.7k. Victorian construction employment was a bit better than NSW at –9.2k (vs. –33.5k in NSW) full-time construction employment rose 6.4k in Victoria compared to –31.8k in NSW suggesting NSW appears to have entered a more protracted construction downturn as hours worked there appear to be more tightly managed.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%204.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
For Queensland, just about all of the gains in employment can be put down to household services and, in particular, government employment or sectors funded by governments. Education &amp; training made the largest contribution (+17.6k) but public administration &amp; safety almost matched its contribution (+17.2k) while healthcare &amp; social assistance was not far behind (+14.7k) and information, media &amp; telecommunications made a healthy contribution (12.8k). The key drag in the year was manufacturing (–35.0k), retail trade (–23.3k) and administration &amp; support services (–12.9k). All up white collar employment was positive (+19.5k) adding to the 30.9k gain in education &amp; health and a sound 17.4k contribution from leisure &amp; hospitality more than offsetting the contraction in production employment (–25.7k) and retail &amp; distribution (–26.8k).
WA saw a mix in the sectors driving employment with retail &amp; wholesale gaining 30.8k while white collar employment lifted 29.5k in the year (+16.9k professional, scientific &amp; technology, +15.3 public administration &amp; safety and +9.5k other services more than offsetting the 12.6k loss in arts &amp; recreation and –4.9k in financial services). Mining was also positive (+8.1k) but declines in manufacturing and agriculture (–1.8k and –7.7k respectively) led to a small decline in production manufacturing. In the year to February, education &amp; health swung to being a significant drag in WA shedding 31.5k employees while construction shed 18.2k workers over the same period of time. Manufacturing was basically flat printing +1.8k.
Looking deeper into the sectors sheds some light onto what has been driving employment growth and where the risk to the employment outlook lies.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%205.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac 
Construction was an important driver of employment through 2017 with gains peaking at +103.8k /9.8%yr in the year to November 2017. This represented a 0.9ppt contribution to the 3.3%yr pace in total employment growth at that time. Construction's share of total employment peaked a quarter later at 9.5% in February 2018 which was a record high for this series going back to the start of the data in late 1984.
Since then construction employment has fallen 49.2k in the year to February 2019 representing a drag of –0.4ppt on total employment growth (which printed 2.3%yr). The last time construction employment represented a meaningful drag on employment growth was back in 2012 when it contracted –61.6k in the year to August 2012 generating a drag of –0.6ppt on total employment (which printed 1.2%yr).
Given that the starting point of construction's share of total employment is now larger than it was in 2012 (the peak back then was 9.1% in August 2011) construction has the potential to have a larger drag on employment this time should the construction downturn continue to deepen and broaden out of NSW and WA where it is currently focused.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%206.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac 
Looking at the breakdown of the sub-sectors behind the correction in construction employment suggests the current correction could have further to run. In the year to February 2019, all of the decline in construction employment can be explained by the –66k decline in construction services. The level of employment in this sector peaked at +777.6k in February 2018 having grown 86.1k, or 12.5%, in the previous two years.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%207.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
Construction services includes land development &amp; site preparation services, building structure services, building installation services, building completion services and other construction services (which we suspect includes construction contractors). A fair proportion of these services are involved with project and site preparation before construction activity starts. We would expect to see some lift from heavy, civil engineering as public works projects continue but the down turn in dwelling construction activity is going to weigh on building construction employment through 2019 and it is likely to be sometime before construction services find a base to grow from.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%208.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%208.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
The impact of construction activity on employment is broader than direct construction employment. Westpac has long compiled an aggregate of sectors in manufacturing that would have a strong linkage with construction – wood products, non-metallic minerals, metal products and furniture – which represents a bit more than 30% of manufacturing employment.
Employment in these sectors had been in a trend decline since the late 1990s, as are most manufacturing sectors. During the downtrend there have been some short-run up cycles but from the August 2016 low in employment these sectors grew 29.9k to February 2019, the first sustained uptrend in employment in almost two decades. November 2016 was the recent low in construction employment share of total employment which then rose to a peak in February 2018. Manufacturing employment linked to construction activity peaked in November 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%209.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/3/WESTPAC%209.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
In the last year all of the gains in manufacturing employment has been from metal products (+19.1k); all the other sectors were either flat or declining. Employment metal productions totalled 172.1k in February and if you exclude the recent run-up, employment in metal products is back to a level not seen since early 2014. Not even the mining investment boom produced a comparable lift in steel manufacturing employment indicative of just how significant the recent lift in construction activity has been for broader employment gains. By contrast transport &amp; machinery equipment employment declined 24.9k in the year to February while petroleum, chemical &amp; coal shed 21.0k workers and food, beverage &amp; tobacco has retrenched 16.7k.
Looking forward we don't expect public construction activity to peak until well into 2020 but nevertheless the pace of growth will be somewhat less than it has been. As such steel manufacturing employment should be supported but is very unlikely to be a significant contributor to employment growth going forward and as we head into 2020, it is likely to become a drag on employment.
Looking at the states, Queensland saw the biggest decline in manufacturing employment losing –18.8k employees in the year while NSW shed –7.2k, Vic lost –5.0k and WA lost –2.2k. SA added 9.6k and Tasmania gained 16.6k.
JUSTIN SMIRK is a ‎senior economist for Westpac Group
</body></html>

Australian employment gains have been in white collar industries: Justin Smirk

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s electricity sector has begun to transition away from coal, with coal’s contribution to our electricity mix falling from around four-fifths 13 years ago to around three-fifths today.
Twelve coal-fired power stations closed between 2012 and 2017.
There are clear upsides to the transition, among them an ongoing <a href="/news">decline</a> in carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector.
For local economies, however, the closure of a coal-fired power station can create economic challenges, including higher unemployment.
We’ve quantified the effects of 12 closures
In a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12289" target="_blank">new paper</a> in the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, we use detailed Statistical Area Level 4 (<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1270.0.55.001%7EJuly%202016%7EMain%20Features%7EStatistical%20Area%20Level%204%20(SA4)%7E10016" target="_blank">SA4</a>) data to quantify the extent to which local unemployment rates have increased following the closures of twelve coal-fired power stations across Victoria, NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.
There are 87 SA4 regions in Australia, each with an average population of around 290,000 people. We found that on average the regional unemployment rate climbs by around 0.7 percentage points after a station closes.
The effect remains observable for year or two, although it varies from region to region.
Clearly, labour mobility and the creation of new jobs do not fully make up for the impact of such closures.
This means there is scope and need for strategies to smooth the labour market transition as we move towards a lower-carbon energy system.
What we found
A simple look at the data indicates that local unemployment rates tend to rise after closures, both in absolute terms and relative to what is happening at the state level.
We find that this effect remains when controlling for the impacts of other key factors, such as macroeconomic shocks and the coal export price.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266292/original/file-20190328-139364-g9g1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266292/original/file-20190328-139364-g9g1jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12289" target="_blank">Burke, Best, Jotzo, 2019</a>
<hr>
Typically the increase in the first year is around 0.7 percentage points – for example, from 6.0% prior to a closure to 6.7% afterwards. It is a sizeable effect. For males the increase is 0.9 percentage points.
The Latrobe Valley in Victoria faces one of the biggest structural adjustment challenges. It has seen two closures of coal-fired power stations in recent years: Morwell in 2014 and Hazelwood in 2017.
As the graph below indicates, the average unemployment rate in the Latrobe-Gippsland SA4 region climbed well above the Victorian average after the first closure, before turning down.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266330/original/file-20190328-139371-9lm7bd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266330/original/file-20190328-139371-9lm7bd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/PrimaryMainFeatures/6291.0.55.001" target="_blank">ABS Labour Force, detailed</a>
<hr>
A multitude of local transition efforts are underway, coordinated by the <a href="https://lva.vic.gov.au/" target="_blank">Latrobe Valley Authority</a>. These have included a <a href="https://lva.vic.gov.au/worker-transfer-scheme/" target="_blank">worker transfer scheme</a> that has found places for displaced employees at other power stations.
At the even finer-grained level SA2 level, the unemployment rate in the town of Morwell remaines stuck at around <a href="https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/sa2-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets-september-quarter-2018" target="_blank">17%</a>, one of the highest rates in Victoria, years after the closure. Before the closure it was around 13%.
The region’s remaining power stations – Yallourn W, Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B – are ageing. Yallourn W is the oldest, at 45 years.
We need to prepare
Structural change is an ever-present feature of a healthy economy. But, especially where rapid structural change happens due to closures of large plants in regional areas, it is important to have measures in place to ease the transition.
The Labor party has promised a national <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-policy-can-smooth-the-energy-transition-but-much-more-will-be-needed-to-tackle-emissions-107565" target="_blank">Just Transition Authority</a> to plan for and manage the transition process as coal-fired power stations close. Whether it can help mitigate rises in local unemployment after plant closures remains to be seen.
Many of Australia’s remaining coal-fired power stations are likely to close over the next decade or two as renewable energy becomes more cost competitive and the pressure increases to meet emissions targets. The next cab off the rank is likely to be the Liddell power station in the NSW Hunter Valley, which is due to cease coal-fired operations <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-tells-shareholders-it-will-close-liddell-power-plant-in-2022-20180926-p50633" target="_blank">in 2022</a>.
And then there’s the larger question of the transition away from coal mining. Export demand for coal <a href="https://coaltransitions.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/coaltransitions_finalreport_australia_20181.pdf" target="_blank">is set to fall over time</a>, winding back a large export industry in New South Wales and Queensland.
The <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-policy-can-smooth-the-energy-transition-but-much-more-will-be-needed-to-tackle-emissions-107565" target="_blank">Just Transition Authority</a> will have its work cut out.
<hr>
This research was supported by the Coal Transitions Project and the Australian-German Energy Transition Hub. An open access version of the research paper is available <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/ccep-working-paper/12998/closures-coal-fired-power-stations-australia-local-unemployment">here</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113369/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Paul Burke, Associate Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Rohan Best, Lecturer in Economics, Macquarie University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-news-closing-coal-fired-power-stations-costs-jobs-we-need-to-prepare-113369" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

Employment

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Employment

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News