<p>Leeka Group has gone down the path of bringing a heightened level of wellness to its recently unveiled Melbourne apartment development, Comme Prahran.</p>

<p>It isn't in the form of a suite of amenities, given the building is more boutique in nature with just 32 apartments, but with clever inclusions designed to uplift their residents lifestyle.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/comme-prahran-182-194-commercial-road-prahran-vic-3181">Comme</a>, directly opposition the iconic Prahran Market on Commercial Road, has been designed by renowned architecture studio <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> and&nbsp;will introduce the first-of-its-kind multi-dimensional wellness offering, where physical, mental, social, environmental, and cultural well-being are embedded throughout.</p>

<p>“Prahran has long been a destination for culture, community and quality of life, and Comme builds on that in a deeply intentional way,” says Leeka Director, Chek Ming Cheng.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This project introduces a new kind of urban sanctuary, one that adapts to individual definitions of wellness, whether that’s through nutrition, rest, movement, design or connection. Every space has been thoughtfully shaped to support the diverse rhythms of modern life."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353544]</p>

<p>There will be a rooftop with a&nbsp;Zen garden designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/plume-studio">Plume Landscape Architects</a>, offering&nbsp;a sensory experience that activates all five senses, an edible herb wall to taste, calming botanicals to smell, reflexology paths to feel, lush plantings to see and the gentle sounds of water and birdsong to hear.</p>

<p>Inside each residence, wellness is deeply personal, and Comme embraces this individuality with a suite of customisation options designed to enhance both health and lifestyle. Residents can tailor their homes with circadian lighting automation, supported by research linking it to improved well-being, better rest, and even longevity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353546]</p>

<p>Other add-ons residents can opt for include real-time air monitoring and purification systems, ensuring a cleaner, healthier environment, while blackout blinds help optimise sleep quality. Additionally, the option to include integrated smart home technologies and security measures with multiple controlled access points offers ease, convenience, and peace of mind, supporting day-to-day living and contributing to overall mental well-being.</p>

<p>Kitchens can be fitted with healthy cooking appliances such as steam ovens and taps for instant filtered, sparkling or hot water, while ensuites can be transformed into spa-style sanctuaries complete with steam showers, heated floors, rain heads, smart toilets, and sensor night lights to support restful sleep cycles. In the penthouse residence, further options include an outdoor spa for enhanced recovery and indulgence.</p>

<p>“Comme isn’t just about design, it’s about how space can support your day-to-day life," Chek added.</p>

<p>"Whether you like a steam shower, checking your indoor air quality, simply enjoying a quiet moment in the rooftop garden, or reflecting on the artworks in the building, wellness is part of your everyday routine, not an afterthought."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353543]</p>

<p>The residences will feature open-plan layouts compliant with Better Apartment Design Standards (BADS), with floor-to-ceiling windows that maximise ventilation, natural light and thermal comfort. Finishes such as natural stones, timber flooring and low-VOC paints are complemented by facade design that filters dappled light and aids in thermal comfort.</p>

<p>Cera Stribley, Co-Founder, Domenic Cerantonio, said the first thing you notice is the light.</p>

<p>"Natural light floods the living spaces, casting a soft glow that instantly lifts your spirits. It's as if the outside world melts away, and you're cocooned in a peaceful oasis."</p>

<p>The gallery-style residential lobby will feature circadian-inspired lighting and artwork, while the ground-floor will offer retail and hospitality spaces.</p>

<p>The building’s mixed-use design fosters connection, with ground-floor retail and hospitality creating a vibrant, welcoming destination. These spaces are thoughtfully designed to enhance the precinct and bring it to life.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353545]</p>

<p>Sustainability and environmental responsibility are integral to Comme Prahran’s DNA. All homes are gas-free and designed to a 7-star energy average, with double glazing, WELS-rated plumbing, and EV charging capabilities available. A light-coloured exterior has been chosen to minimise heat absorption, supporting thermal efficiency and reducing reliance on artificial cooling.</p>

<p>Honouring the cultural richness of Prahran, the project reimagines an Edwardian-era landmark, integrating its historic character into a contemporary architectural form. Art experiences will activate the residential and retail lobbies, and a dedicated artwork on the external eastern facade will enrich the building’s street presence, embedding it into the creative fabric of the neighbourhood.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108413]</p>


Joel Robinson

Comme Prahran launches opposite Prahran Market

<p>Apartment developer Third.i has seen "overwhelming interest" in its recently unveiled new harbourside apartment project, The Rushcutters.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-rushcutters-51-57-bayswater-road-rushcutters-bay-nsw-2011">The Rushcutters</a>, which is being delivered in partnership with James Packer's NPACT, will comprise just 13 luxury two- and three-bedroom apartments.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Demand is predominantly coming from local downsizers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144646 project_image_fid=351903]</p>

<p>“We’ve been absolutely blown away by the level of interest in The Rushcutters,” said Luke Berry, Director and Co-founder Third.i Group.</p>

<p>“It’s clear that buyers are seeking more than just a place to live, they’re looking for a lifestyle upgrade. The ability to amalgamate apartments into expansive, whole-floor homes is a game-changer for downsizers who want space without the maintenance of a traditional house.”</p>

<p>The Rubinstein Group is marketing the project alongside Hume Residential and JLL.</p>

<p>“It’s no surprise that if you’re downsizing from a five-bedroom house in Bellevue Hill, for example, you want to maintain that sense of space and luxury when looking for your next home, "&nbsp;Gavin Rubinstein, Founder of The Rubinstein Group, said.</p>

<p>“The Rushcutters is a great fit. Amalgamating apartments to create a bespoke, whole-floor home is a natural progression for buyers who aren’t willing to compromise on size and/or quality.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144646 project_image_fid=351901]</p>

<p>Amalgamating apartments has become a common theme among high-end buyers across Third.i's portfolio including Muse in Potts Point, and Elevate Hume Place in Crows Nest, which set a Lower North Shore apartment record with the $15.1 million sale of an amalgamation of a penthouse and sub-penthouse.</p>

<p>“We’re witnessing a clear shift towards more amalgamations in a number of our projects across Sydney,” said Jason Fraser, Principal at Woods Bagot.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144646 project_image_fid=351899]</p>

<p>“The ability to combine apartments is enabling buyers to create truly unique, house-sized residences with high-end finishes, and proximity to vibrant urban precincts. The desire to amalgamate apartments to bespoke, house-sized residences is becoming a defining feature of Sydney’s evolving luxury apartment market."</p>

<p>Due to the City of Sydney’s no net dwelling loss policy, Thirdi is only able to offer one level for amalgamation at The Rushcutters, combining two apartments into a single, expansive residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144646]</p>


The Rushcutters a "great fit" for downsizers

<p>Lower North Shore developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen-group">Abadeen</a> has secured development approval for its ultra-luxury residential project on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/34-burran-avenue-mosman-nsw-2088">dress circle Burran Avenue</a>.</p>

<p>The project, just&nbsp;50 metres from Balmoral Beach within Mosman’s prestigious Golden Triangle, will commence construction in early 2026,&nbsp;following the successful completion of its nearby Hampden Mosman project.</p>

<p>Lodged in April 2025 and approved in September 2025, the development will comprise three whole-floor residences, each designed to capture panoramic harbour views through Sydney Heads.</p>

<p><img alt="34 Burran Avenue, Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f4c7816-0ac8-4ef7-be0a-8ef23b693b68" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/BURRAN%20EV01%20R04%20option%201%20%281%29.jpg?VersionId=gVzI8pT6_K59Nhzaz0FLEvY6Kj9Kc8Fg" /></p>

<p>Set on an elevated 550 sqm corner site at the junction of Burran Avenue and Stanton Road, the building has been designed to sit within Balmoral’s natural slope. The façade mixes stone and metal cladding with angular forms, while oversized terraces and full-height sliding doors create a connection between interior living spaces and outdoor entertaining areas.</p>

<p>The delivery team from Abadeen’s Hampden Mosman project, which includes construction company Reform Projects and interiors company Mathieson, has been retained to bring the same level of execution and craftsmanship to Burran Avenue.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/platform-architects">Platform Architects</a> has been appointed project architect, bringing extensive experience from recent luxury residential projects in Manly, Fairlight and Freshwater.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Justin Brown, Executive Chairman and Founder of Abadeen, said sites of this calibre, this close to Balmoral, are incredibly rare.</p>

<p>“Burran Avenue is an extraordinary site; its location, its scale and its outlook make it truly one of a kind. Receiving DA approval marks an exciting milestone for Abadeen."</p>

<p>"We’re proud to be moving forward with an exceptional team to deliver a project that will set a new standard for ultra-luxury living on Sydney’s Lower North Shore. Construction is planned to commence in early 2026, and interest is already strong from discerning local buyers who recognise the uniqueness of this address."</p>

<p>Brown anticipates prices will set new Mosman benchmarks above $20 million. Sales are expected to launch in March 2026.</p>


Abadeen approved for Mosman's priciest apartments

<p>Lifestyle developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gurner">GURNER™ Group</a>, in partnership with Costa Property Group, has announced plans to reimagine Cunningham Pier in Geelong, one of Victoria's most recognisable heritage landmarks.</p>

<p>The announcement follows the City of Greater Geelong’s release of its Draft Geelong Waterfront Master Plan, which seeks to revitalise the waterfront with new energy, tourism, and investment. GURNER and Costa Property Group’s vision aligns with the Council’s ambitions to create a vibrant, connected, and economically powerful precinct for the community.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The future of Cunningham Pier will draw inspiration from Sydney Harbour’s luxury waterfront residences through to Dubai’s sculptural pier-edge towers, blending architectural excellence with &nbsp;resort-style living, hospitality, and public amenity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The concept, described as “Saint Moritz on the Sea”, is envisioned to include:&nbsp;</p>

<ul>
	<li>Six-star hotel accommodation and services&nbsp;</li>
	<li>World-class restaurants, bars, and public spaces&nbsp;</li>
	<li>High-end residential offerings&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Entertainment and cultural venues&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Potential cruise ship port facilities, integrating Geelong into the global travel network&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

<p>The transformative project aims to become a magnet for tourism, investment, and innovation, while &nbsp;ensuring continued public access and connection to Corio Bay’s pristine waterfront.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Cunningham Pier has been operated by Costa Property Group for more than 15 years, with the City of Greater Geelong expressing strong support for strategic commercial partnerships that unlock &nbsp;tourism-led economic development for the region’s fast-growing population.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Tim Gurner, Founder &amp; Executive Chairman, GURNER™ Group, said the project is a "once-in-a-generation opportunity to put Geelong on the global map," adding that their version will be of what icons like the Opera House, Story Bridge or Empire State Building have done for other great cities.</p>

<p>“We’ll be working hand-in-hand with the Mayor, Council, the local community, and State Government to deliver something truly iconic that positions Geelong on the world stage. This project brings together everything we’ve built our brand on – world-class design, hospitality, &nbsp;lifestyle, and experience – all in one place. From six-star hotels and restaurants to the possibility of a &nbsp;new cruise ship terminal and luxury residences, the vision is extraordinary.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>City of Greater Geelong&nbsp;Mayor Stretch Kontelj said he welcomes the "bold and inspiring vision reimagining our beloved Cunnigham Pier as a global destination."</p>

<p>"This ambitious plan and the opening of Nyaal Banyul Geelong Convention and Event Centre next year have the potential to take our already world-class waterfront to even greater heights.”</p>


Sydney Harbour, Dubai pier towers, to influence Gurner's Cunningham Pier, Geelong development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a> is one of Melbourne's longest standing architecture firms.</p>

<p data-end="421" data-start="0">Founded in Melbourne in 1853 by Joseph Reed, the firm began as Reed &amp; Barnes and has evolved through various partnerships before adopting the Bates Smart name in the 20th century. With a continuous presence spanning more than 170 years, the practice has played a pivotal role in shaping Melbourne’s architectural identity.</p>

<p data-end="826" data-start="423">In the 19th century, Bates Smart designed several of Melbourne’s enduring landmarks, including the Royal Exhibition Building (1880), a UNESCO World Heritage site, and the Melbourne Town Hall. The firm’s influence continued into the 20th century with notable works such as Ici House (1958), considered Melbourne’s first modern skyscraper and a milestone in post-war Australian architecture.</p>

<p data-end="1220" data-start="828">One of their landmark designs was&nbsp;The First Church of Christ, Scientist, at 336-340 St Kilda Road. The building, which is listed on the Victorian Heritage Register, was designed by Bates, Peeble and Smart with construction completed in 1922. Architecturally, the building is significant as a rare example of early twentieth century classicism applied to a religious building. Historically, the building is significant as the first church of the Christian Science movement.</p>

<p data-end="1220" data-start="828">Melbourne developer Time &amp; Place decided to bring Bates Smart back to the area to design their next residential apartment project, Park Modern.</p>

<p data-end="1220" data-start="828">[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2138]</p>

<p data-end="1220" data-start="828"><a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/park-modern-south-melbourne-1-middleton-lane-south-melbourne-vic-3205">Park Modern</a>, on one of the largest island sites on the Melbourne CBD fringe, bordered by Dorcas Street, Wells Street, and Middleton Lane, will comprise two sculptural towers. It is being positioned as a design-forward response to evolving owner-occupier preferences in the Domain precinct.</p>

<p data-end="1220" data-start="828">Tim Price, Director at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/time-place">Time &amp; Place</a>, says&nbsp;Bates Smart have got a footprint on this city, probably like no other architect.</p>

<p>"It’s a really nice kind of next chapter story, that they created from a design perspective so long ago," Price told Apartments.com.au.</p>

<p>Park Modern will be the third time Time &amp; Place has worked with Bates Smart, having successfully designed and delivered Collins House and Opera on St Kilda Road together.</p>

<p>The brief focused on creating a built form that would feel contextually appropriate while offering a contemporary evolution of inner-city apartment living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2137]</p>

<p>The focus for Park Modern is squarely on owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>“It’s not always about downsizing," Price says.</p>

<p>"Sometimes it’s just about creating a space which is easily maintained, lock up and leave, reflecting people’s aspirations, whether they’re entertainers, big dining room spaces, big open terraces, they’re important parts of any design consideration.”</p>

<p>The building includes a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, as well as penthouses, with layouts and floor plans designed to suit a broad demographic. The architecture has been shaped to capture&nbsp;view corridors to the Botanic Gardens, Port Phillip Bay and the CBD skyline.</p>

<p>Each apartment has been oriented to maximise natural light and provide a clear outlook, elements often cited by owner-occupiers as key criteria.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=351806]</p>

<p>Rather than defaulting to a generic luxury offering, the amenity strategy at Park Modern reflects specific insights into how residents want to live. The ground floor will include co-working areas, wellness facilities, and a concierge-led lobby that blends indoor and outdoor design cues.</p>

<p>“Wellness has become a more thoughtful consideration, not just gyms or lap pools, but things like magnesium plunge pools, saunas, daybeds, and studio spaces for Pilates and the regular cardio workout,” says Price.</p>

<p>One notable inclusion is a substantial porte-cochère, a covered vehicle drop-off zone integrated into the site plan. It’s a feature rarely seen in inner-urban developments and speaks to the team’s emphasis on ease of arrival and departure for residents and guests.</p>

<p>A display suite for Park Modern is now open by appointment, giving prospective buyers an early look at the project.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138453]</p>


100 years on, Bates Smart returns to South Melbourne's Domain Precinct to design Park Modern

Employment

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.</p>

<p>But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      </p>

<p>Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  </p>

<p>There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  </p>

<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.</p>

<p><strong>What do you need to know? </strong></p>

<p>Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.</p>

<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).</p>

<p>Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.</p>

<p>Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.</p>

<p>Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  </p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.</p>

<p>The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.</p>

<p>The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.</p>

<p>The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       </p>

<p> </p>
</body></html>

cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/labour-market-weakness-under-hood"></a></h3>
<div id="post-body-5100146898223249015" class="post-body entry-content">Let's begin with the good news, because I'm in a jolly good mood and don't want to spoil it.<br><br>It won't take long anyway, as there isn't really that much good news to report!<br><br><div>The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.35 percent in original terms, the lowest in well over three years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate of 5.58 percent was the lowest in 42 months, and well below the 6.32 percent seen in January 2015 (click the graphics to expand, as always!).<br><br>
</div>
<div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/D1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Drilling the trend line through the figures, the unemployment rate of 5.6 percent looks healthy enough. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<img src="/images/2016/11/18/B3.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the trend unemployment rate has continued to decline to just 4.89 per cent, the lowest figure in nearly six years, while Victoria and Queensland are also moving in the right direction.<br><br>The trend hasn't caught up but Queensland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 per cent. Bonzer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Tasmania and Western Australia are heading the other way. </div>
</div>
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<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Although not charted here due to their respective small sample sizes, the unemployment rates in the Northern Territory (3.5 per cent) and the ACT (3.4 per cent) are low. </div>
<br>OK, that's great. Now brace for the not-so-cheerful news....<br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Jobs and growth?" Maaate...</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hiring is usually strong at this time of year, and total employment increased by about +78,800 over the last two months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for seasonality, however, this month's increase was only +9,800, although that figure did at least include a vast swing back to full-time employment of +41,500. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This all sounds cool until we revisit what happened last month, which was a big seasonally adjusted drop in employment, while full-time employment is nearly 90,000 lower than at the beginning of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking through the noise, the trend in employment growth now looks poor. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Another way to look at this is to view the annual trend employment change, which has dropped to +108,100, or an a trend annual increase of only +0.9 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The annual rate of employment growth is at its lowest level in 23 months and is now below the rate of population growth, and categorically 'not good enough'!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has now cruised to the top of the employment growth charts, with Victoria (+107,300) and New South Wales (+46,100) accounting for more than all of the net employment growth over the past year.<br><br>Employment in Tasmania dived by -3,400 in October to be -4,300 lower than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland employment fell by -16,900 in the month, and by -46,000 over the year. This month's result was a rogue statistic due to the sample rotation from September, though there's no question that employment in aggregate has weakened in the Sunshine State, led by resources-related job losses in locations such as Townsville. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the Queensland figures by region in more detail next week. </div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson highlighted that 67,600 jobs had been lost in Queensland since the beginning of the year and that "anyone who sees today's result as good news doesn't understand how tough it is to find a job in Queensland".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He's right about the second part, but clearly he didn't read the commentary on the incoming sample and cocked up his numbers by calculating them from the end of January rather than the beginning. Maybe that was deliberate. Oh well, at least his job doesn't require strong numeracy skills! </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>While the unemployment rate superficially looks positive, the participation rate is well down and now at the lowest level since early 2006. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite a much improved monthly result, total hours worked - as useful an indicator as any when looking at a volatile survey - increased by only +0.9 per cent over the year to October, and less in trend terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And despite the wild swing back to full-time employment this month, it's important to see through the monthly noise and understand that much of the growth in jobs has been part-time in nature over recent times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we have the weakest nominal wages growth on record, some of the weakest non-tradables inflationary pressures on record, and weak employment growth across recent months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sounds like the easing cycle isn't over to me, but markets remain tentative for now, and job vacancies figures have admittedly been solid enough.<br><br>I will just note that when the labour force report prints solidly most commentary states that it must be somehow wrong, yet when the figures are weaker (as they are now) they are instantly taken at face value!<br><br>Something to bear in mind if the headline figure snaps back up next month...</div>
<div> </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Labour market: weakness under the hood

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<div>I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 percent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A valid question is: why?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Employees flocking to eastern capitals: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Job vacancies had barely begin their decline by the end of February, holding up at about 227,000.</span></p>
<p><span>Vacancies were lower than a year earlier due to the bushfires, but not by much.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1359"></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There were about 700,000 unemployed persons at the end of the last month, so there never was any tight labour market in this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We simply never got low or tight enough to see stronger wages growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D28blnXsgiw/XoVRp2NX0DI/AAAAAAAA1DI/e6kSJ5tag6QHcqB-Cc5JlpCHJ-5qPwktwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p><span>And full employment has remained elusive throughout the full cycle.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1408"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Looking at the most timely available data from private data sets on job vacancies and other reads, it seems likely that unemployment is probably heading to about 10 per cent, although the situation is very fluid right now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level, the resources states were tracking a bit better, as Sydney and Melbourne have moved beyond their respective peaks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here to enlarge.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1400"></a></div>
<p><span>Challenging times ahead.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>
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Job vacancies are getting set for a plunge: Pete Wargent

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<div>Last week the ABS Job Vacancies series recorded New South Wales vacancies at an all-time high driven by positions in the services sector, which bodes well for Sydney employment growth.<br><br>Indeed, Sydney's economic dials have all been switched to hot for a long time now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>ANZ released its job advertisements dat<a href="https://www.media.anz.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=248677&amp;p=irol-jobad&amp;nyo=0" target="_blank">a</a> for September which showed a seasonally adjusted +3.9% jump following on from a +1.3% lift in August. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was the strongest monthly gain in 15 months and the trend estimate has now been rising since November 2013.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/07/ANZ.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/07/ANZ.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>
<div>ANZ noted that the series now appears to be stronger than had previously been thought, and that the economy seems to be adjusting relatively well to the decline in mining investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news the FCAI reported that an all-time record 1,143,104 new motor vehicle vehicles for the year to September after a +6.8 per cent year-on-year jump in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the services PMI gauge also recording a fourth month of expansion for the first time since March 2008 (following on from a 7 year high reading last month), interest rates will be left on hold this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Job ads biggest jump in 15 months: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its all-important Labour Force data for Janaury 2016. It is perhaps the most important of the data releases, so let's take a canter through it in the three short parts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Employment growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment declined by -7,900 in January to 11,894,500. In trend terms, total employment increased by +19,800.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although this was a decline for the headline result which missed market expecations, given the strength of what has gone before, in context it wasn't too bad a result. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>In trend terms total employment increased by +302,500 over the past year or +2.6 per cent, which is a high rate of employment growth in historical terms. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>However, the composition of employment does not look quite so pretty, with full time employment decreasing by -40,600 in January, and part time employment increasing by +32,700. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While full time jobs growth has been solid over the past year in rising by +2.0 per cent, the rate of part time jobs growth has been exceptionally high at +3.9 per cent. This probably represents a structural shift towards more casual jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total hours worked increased by a modest +2.0 per cent over the past year, perhaps a rather more realistic indicator of the strength of employment growth. </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br>Part 2 - NSW &amp; QLD create the jobs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>After some previously massive months of jobs growth, employment in New South Wales (and Victoria) pulled back in January, while Queensland went on to record further gains. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past six months the economy has created +143,400 jobs, with New South Wales (43 per cent) and Queensland (38 per cent) accounting for more than four-fifths of them.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Over the past year employment growth rates have ranged from an enormous +4.7 per cent in New South Wales and +3.3 per cent in Queensland, to a distinctly uninspiring -0.9 per cent in Tasmania. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Unemployment rates converge</span></strong><br><br><div>The headline result showed a seasonally adjusted increase in the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent, which will excite the pessimists. However, the result was probably more middle of the road than anything.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The participation rate has crept up to 65.2 per cent, the highest level in nearly four years, and while the number of unemployed persons recorded is volatile, it was down by 2.6 per cent over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend unemployment rate ticked down a notch to 5.8 per cent, for a 27 month low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>At the state level the monthly figures were absolutely wild once again, lurching all over the place. The trend figures point towards convergence rather than divergence between the states, with New South Wales looking to be in the best nick on this measure. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The 95 per cent confidence interval figures provided by the ABS (which ranged from -66,500 to +55,700 for the month) serve as a reminder that as estimates the monthly data shouldn't be taken too literally.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big picture suggests that although annual headline employment growth is high by historical standards, the quality of employment growth is underwhelming, with part time work and under-employment aplenty in evidence. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result ongoing low wages growth is likely to be the order of the day due to the inherent level of slack in the workforce.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The employment figures weren't too bad on the whole, but notably Goldman Sachs is now forecasting interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in both May and July, so hold on to your hats.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NSW & QLD are creating the jobs: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-7578333087738143264" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>A strong +1.6 percent increase in job advertisements in June saw year-on-year vacancies rise very strongly by +11 percent to a total of 169,600, according to the Department of Employment.</div>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" alt=""><br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Department of Employment</span></em></div>
<br><div>Total vacancies are now at their highest level in four years, which bodes well for jobs growth picking up. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Internet%20Job%20Ads.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Internet%20Job%20Ads.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the peak of the mining boom June 2012, the share of total vacancies located in Western Australia has declined from 15.6 percent to 7.8 percent. </div>
<br><div>On the other hand there has been a huge surge in vacancies in New South Wales over the past three years, up by 37.4 percent in trend terms to a massive 91,400 (a record boom). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year the percentage growth in vacancies has also been very strong in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Ads4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Ads4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In trend terms all eight occupation groups are strengthening, and over the year job advertisements were up in 33 of the 37 recorded regions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The decreases were seen in northern Queensland, Perth, and western Tasmania.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<br><div>The index has its weaknesses, particularly since it doesn't differentiate between full time and part time gigs.</div>
<br>Nevertheless, all in all, this looks pretty good for jobs growth in the second half of 2016.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Job ads up to a four-year high: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<div>Economists had expected employment to fall by 30,000 in October as Victoria's lockdown persisted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Instead we got a rollicking increase of 178,800 or 1.4 per cent, most of which were full-time jobs.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpEBQ2haIJw/X7Y03wkIJCI/AAAAAAAA5Z4/tDh7tUakT8M2RaEg_Pde2iIJ7nCxkdcvQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1448/A3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpEBQ2haIJw/X7Y03wkIJCI/AAAAAAAA5Z4/tDh7tUakT8M2RaEg_Pde2iIJ7nCxkdcvQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h356/A3.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1448"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a big leap in participation to 65.8 per cent (a huge beat - economist forecasts were for a flat result here), which is now returning close to record highs and only 0.1 pts lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the leap in participation, the unemployment rate has nestled in at 7 per cent, which is far, far better than previously feared. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HML7-IT0uLo/X7Y1n81UsOI/AAAAAAAA5aM/9H2W_17rWFEmnZ3dP0Rhrh63VBVhisDiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1423/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HML7-IT0uLo/X7Y1n81UsOI/AAAAAAAA5aM/9H2W_17rWFEmnZ3dP0Rhrh63VBVhisDiwCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/A2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1423"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>How did economists land <em><strong>so</strong></em> far away from the target?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say for sure, but the huge rebound in Victorian employment in the month - despite the lockdown persisting through October - was an interesting and totally unexpected result. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1412/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h362/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1412"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland has added back a stunning 206,000 jobs in only 5 months, to see total employment actually higher than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But despite ostensibly adding 82,000 jobs in October, total employment in Victoria is still 124,000 lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vpEW-jL-ng/X7Y6TNgJPfI/AAAAAAAA5ak/9yyQiQD0tS8GPMqGCAb-i9i2ZbUdGDa-wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1451/A4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vpEW-jL-ng/X7Y6TNgJPfI/AAAAAAAA5ak/9yyQiQD0tS8GPMqGCAb-i9i2ZbUdGDa-wCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h354/A4.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1451"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date 648,000 of the 875,000 jobs lost have been recovered across only five months, so we are already 74 per cent of the way back to employment topping new highs at above 13 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, this was a great result, which introduces the exciting possibility of a strong snap-back in the Aussie economy in 2021. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest anyone becomes too excited at this early stage in the recovery, measures of underemployment remain understandably high, and monthly hours worked were still 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier (largely due to a huge year-on-year decline in Victoria). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October the underemployment rate by 1.0 pts to 10.4 per cent, but that's still 1.9 pts higher than a year ago.</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Employment soared higher in October: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<p>The oil price is back to its highest level since March, rising another 4 per cent to $47.91/barrel (Brent crude) today amid lower inventories and further vaccine optimism.</p>
<div id="post-body-5601314325818678673" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>Energy, arguably the main sector of the US economy demonstrating some semblance of 'value', has been quietly powering higher over the past month. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hc5_hvhNFjs/X71O8v9p9RI/AAAAAAAA5eY/InlB6hpEv6Ex_vRR2sEUWanYQTJNka_7ACNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h528/XLE.jpg" width="640" height="528" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="779"></p>
<p>US stocks more generally have been absolutely pumped, with price to sales ratios now ascending to even higher levels than the tech bubble peak of 2000. </p>
<p>That's right, the price to sales ratio (ex-financials) is now at the highest level in stock market history at above 2.7x. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b2HK376Pcy4/X71PWc8RvII/AAAAAAAA5eg/AADHBpCfXBcLG-7cPSalB2X1Tq5Qz0AYQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h426/US%2Btech.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="746"></p>
<p>The Dow Jones index took out a record 30,000 today, to some acclaim and modest fanfare.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, some of the wilder tech stocks out there could drop by two-thirds without troubling too many of the traditional metrics of valuation. </p>
<p>Yet the US economy will need to face down some serious challenges as there is a changeover of President, with the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases now surpassing 175,000 and, for now at least, still trending higher. </p>
<div>What. A. Year!</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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