<p>For most new apartment buildings, the Owners Corporation starts life with little more than a bank account and the first quarterly strata levies.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/9-gay-street-castle-hill-9-gay-street-castle-hill-nsw-2154">9 Gay Street</a> in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a>, it starts with around $7 million in reserve.</p>

<p>It's an unusual legacy of what was once one of Sydney's highest-profile apartment remediation projects. When the development, originally known as Skyview and built by disgraced developer Top Place, came under scrutiny by then NSW Building Commissioner David Chandler, an $11 million remediation bond was negotiated to ensure any building defects could be fully rectified.</p>

<p>The building underwent an 18-month remediation program, during which around $4 million of that bond was spent bringing the building up to the standard it should have been in from the outset.</p>

<p>After extensive inspections, all active rectification orders have been lifted. What's more, around $7.2 million remains secured for the Owners Corporation for the next 15 years.</p>

<p>In a twist few would have predicted, what began as a significant concern for purchasers has left the building with something almost unheard of in the apartment market: a multi-million-dollar financial reserve from day one.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359136]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a> Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said the structure offers buyers a level of certainty that is difficult to replicate.</p>

<p>"The $11 million bond established for the Skyview Castle Hill development represents exceptional value, providing genuine financial security for purchasers," Huxley said.</p>

<p>"Unlike a standard insurance policy, this bond consists of real funds held in trust for the Owners Corporation, offering a tangible layer of protection and added peace of mind."</p>

<p>The apartments themselves have been designed with a focus on practical, contemporary living. Interiors feature Smeg appliances, stone benchtops, tiled living areas, carpeted bedrooms, 2.7-metre ceilings, floor-to-ceiling glazing, and ducted heating and cooling throughout.</p>

<p>Residents also have access to a range of shared amenities, including two rooftop barbecue areas, a swimming pool, children's playgrounds, secure building access, storage cages, and visitor parking.</p>

<p>The location continues to be one of the project's strongest drawcards. Castle Hill Metro Station sits virtually on the doorstep, providing direct connections across Sydney's expanding Metro network, while Castle Towers offers extensive retail, dining, entertainment, and service amenities within walking distance.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359127]</p>

<p>The building, now named after its location at 9 Gay Street, comprises a diverse mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments starting from just under $600,000.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett said demand in the Hills District continues to be driven by buyers seeking convenience and connectivity.</p>

<p>"Interest from both owner-occupiers and investors in Castle Hill remains exceptionally strong, with buyers consistently prioritising developments in close proximity to the Metro station and Castle Towers Shopping Centre," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"There is a clear trend in the market, with purchasers seeking convenient access to transport and lifestyle amenities that support a seamless, low-maintenance way of living."</p>

<p>On top of the long-term protection afforded by the remaining $7.2 million bond, Equitifund is offering a limited-time stamp duty rebate on selected apartments.</p>

<p>Eligible purchasers can also secure finance options, including a 3.99 per cent two-year variable rate, loan-to-value ratios of up to 90 per cent, and interest-only lending options through EquitiCredit.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147685]</p>


Joel Robinson

Why this Castle Hill apartment building starts with a $7 million advantage

<p>For much of the past few years, conversations about Australia's property market have centred on the rapid growth seen in Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Perth. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3004">Melbourne</a> has followed a different trajectory.</p>

<p>That relative underperformance is now encouraging some buyers to reassess the city, particularly those willing to look beyond short-term market movements and focus on quality property in established locations, along with the long-term growth prospects of a city expected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s most populous.</p>

<p>John Bekiaris, Research &amp; Market Insights at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Projects by Equitifund</a>, said Melbourne's current position is attracting increasingly sophisticated purchasers.</p>

<p>"Melbourne continues to present one of Australia's strongest long-term investment stories," Bekiaris says.</p>

<p>"While other capital cities have experienced stronger recent growth, that relative underperformance is exactly what's attracting sophisticated counter-cyclical investors."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363268]</p>

<p>Equitifund isn't just commenting on Melbourne's property market, it's investing in it.</p>

<p>The Sydney-headquartered capital partner has taken over the remaining apartments at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/victoriana-melbourne-20-queens-road-melbourne-vic-3004">Victoriana</a>, the recently completed glass-encased development opposite Albert Park Lake in Melbourne's tightly held St Kilda Road precinct.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hickory">Hickory</a>, Victoriana places residents between one of Melbourne's most recognised parklands and the CBD, offering oversized two and three-bedroom apartments aimed at owner-occupiers seeking a genuine alternative to a traditional family home.</p>

<p>The development comprises 232 completed residences alongside a suite of resident amenities, including a 25-metre indoor swimming pool, gymnasium, landscaped entertaining areas, resident lounges, EV charging, secure basement parking and a concierge-style arrival experience.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363229]</p>

<p>The apartments have been designed with owner-occupiers firmly in mind.&nbsp;Open-plan living and dining areas flow onto generous balconies framing views across Albert Park Lake, Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens and the Melbourne skyline.</p>

<p>Kitchens feature Gaggenau appliances, stone benchtops and generous preparation space. Bedrooms include built-in robes, while bathrooms feature full-height textured tiling. Hardwood flooring and ducted air conditioning complete residences designed for long-term living.</p>

<p>Rothelowman's architecture takes its cues from the landscape opposite the site. Sweeping horizontal glazing references the movement of Albert Park Lake, while generous balconies and expansive glazing strengthen the connection between the apartments and the surrounding parklands. The result is a building designed to deliver the scale and amenity expected of luxury apartment living, while offering the larger floorplans increasingly sought by owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363284]</p>

<p>The location is one of Victoriana's defining characteristics. Positioned on Queens Road, residents are directly opposite Albert Park Lake and within easy reach of Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens, South Melbourne, St Kilda Road and the CBD. With few comparable development opportunities remaining in the precinct, buyers are increasingly placing value on outlooks that are unlikely to be interrupted by future construction.</p>

<p>Greg Huxley, Founder of Equitifund, believes those qualities become even more valuable over time.</p>

<p>"Premium real estate has always rewarded buyers who take a long-term view," Huxley said.</p>

<p>"Victoriana represents the kind of asset that's increasingly difficult to recreate today, particularly in an established location like Queens Road."</p>

<p>He said rising construction costs are also changing the way buyers assess completed developments.</p>

<p>"When you combine an irreplaceable location with thoughtful architecture and premium finishes, you create something that becomes increasingly difficult to reproduce as construction costs continue to rise."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363228]</p>

<p>According to National Sales Director Ben Hamblett, enquiry has been driven largely by Melbourne downsizers and buyers upgrading from smaller apartments.</p>

<p>"Interest in Victoriana continues to build, with strong buyer focus on the larger owner-occupier residences within the development," Hamblett says.</p>

<p>"Enquiry is increasingly driven by local buyers who recognise the rarity of what's on offer: park-facing apartments in an established neighbourhood where new development opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce. At Victoriana, the view is not just a feature; it's an appreciating asset in its own right."</p>

<p>He said interstate enquiry has also strengthened as buyers reassess Melbourne's position within the national property cycle.</p>

<p>"Melbourne currently stands as the most compelling entry point of any major Australian capital, and discerning buyers are beginning to recognise what those who move early always understand: the best opportunities are taken before the price rise confirms them."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=1979]</p>


Why now is the time to buy in Melbourne's premium apartment market

<p>Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.</p>

<p>While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.</p>

<p>A new Colliers report, <em>Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions</em>, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.</p>

<p>The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.</p>

<p>Construction Skills Queensland's <em>Horizon 2032</em> report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.</p>

<p>The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.</p>

<p>"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.</p>

<p>"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."</p>

<p>Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.</p>

<p>"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]</p>

<p>Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.</p>

<p>Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.</p>

<p>The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.</p>

<p>Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.</p>

<p>"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.</p>

<p>"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."</p>


Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

<p>It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]</p>

<p>Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.</p>

<p>"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.</p>

<p>"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.</p>

<p>"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]</p>

<p>Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.</p>

<p>Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]</p>

<p>Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.</p>

<p>"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.</p>

<p>"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."</p>

<p>Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]</p>


Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

<p>Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.</p>

<p>The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]</p>

<p>Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.</p>

<p>"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.</p>

<p>"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]</p>

<p>La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.</p>

<p>Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.</p>

<p>The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.</p>

<p>"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.</p>

<p>Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]</p>


La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Employment

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<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.</p>

<p>But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      </p>

<p>Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  </p>

<p>There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  </p>

<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.</p>

<p><strong>What do you need to know? </strong></p>

<p>Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.</p>

<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).</p>

<p>Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.</p>

<p>Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.</p>

<p>Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  </p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.</p>

<p>The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.</p>

<p>The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.</p>

<p>The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       </p>

<p> </p>
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cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/labour-market-weakness-under-hood"></a></h3>
<div id="post-body-5100146898223249015" class="post-body entry-content">Let's begin with the good news, because I'm in a jolly good mood and don't want to spoil it.<br><br>It won't take long anyway, as there isn't really that much good news to report!<br><br><div>The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.35 percent in original terms, the lowest in well over three years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate of 5.58 percent was the lowest in 42 months, and well below the 6.32 percent seen in January 2015 (click the graphics to expand, as always!).<br><br>
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<div>Drilling the trend line through the figures, the unemployment rate of 5.6 percent looks healthy enough. </div>
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<div>In New South Wales the trend unemployment rate has continued to decline to just 4.89 per cent, the lowest figure in nearly six years, while Victoria and Queensland are also moving in the right direction.<br><br>The trend hasn't caught up but Queensland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 per cent. Bonzer.</div>
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<div>Tasmania and Western Australia are heading the other way. </div>
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<br><div>Although not charted here due to their respective small sample sizes, the unemployment rates in the Northern Territory (3.5 per cent) and the ACT (3.4 per cent) are low. </div>
<br>OK, that's great. Now brace for the not-so-cheerful news....<br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Jobs and growth?" Maaate...</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hiring is usually strong at this time of year, and total employment increased by about +78,800 over the last two months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for seasonality, however, this month's increase was only +9,800, although that figure did at least include a vast swing back to full-time employment of +41,500. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This all sounds cool until we revisit what happened last month, which was a big seasonally adjusted drop in employment, while full-time employment is nearly 90,000 lower than at the beginning of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking through the noise, the trend in employment growth now looks poor. </div>
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<br><div>Another way to look at this is to view the annual trend employment change, which has dropped to +108,100, or an a trend annual increase of only +0.9 percent. </div>
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<br><div>The annual rate of employment growth is at its lowest level in 23 months and is now below the rate of population growth, and categorically 'not good enough'!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has now cruised to the top of the employment growth charts, with Victoria (+107,300) and New South Wales (+46,100) accounting for more than all of the net employment growth over the past year.<br><br>Employment in Tasmania dived by -3,400 in October to be -4,300 lower than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland employment fell by -16,900 in the month, and by -46,000 over the year. This month's result was a rogue statistic due to the sample rotation from September, though there's no question that employment in aggregate has weakened in the Sunshine State, led by resources-related job losses in locations such as Townsville. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the Queensland figures by region in more detail next week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson highlighted that 67,600 jobs had been lost in Queensland since the beginning of the year and that "anyone who sees today's result as good news doesn't understand how tough it is to find a job in Queensland".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He's right about the second part, but clearly he didn't read the commentary on the incoming sample and cocked up his numbers by calculating them from the end of January rather than the beginning. Maybe that was deliberate. Oh well, at least his job doesn't require strong numeracy skills! </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>While the unemployment rate superficially looks positive, the participation rate is well down and now at the lowest level since early 2006. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite a much improved monthly result, total hours worked - as useful an indicator as any when looking at a volatile survey - increased by only +0.9 per cent over the year to October, and less in trend terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And despite the wild swing back to full-time employment this month, it's important to see through the monthly noise and understand that much of the growth in jobs has been part-time in nature over recent times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we have the weakest nominal wages growth on record, some of the weakest non-tradables inflationary pressures on record, and weak employment growth across recent months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sounds like the easing cycle isn't over to me, but markets remain tentative for now, and job vacancies figures have admittedly been solid enough.<br><br>I will just note that when the labour force report prints solidly most commentary states that it must be somehow wrong, yet when the figures are weaker (as they are now) they are instantly taken at face value!<br><br>Something to bear in mind if the headline figure snaps back up next month...</div>
<div> </div>
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<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Labour market: weakness under the hood

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<div>I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 percent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A valid question is: why?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Employees flocking to eastern capitals: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Job vacancies had barely begin their decline by the end of February, holding up at about 227,000.</span></p>
<p><span>Vacancies were lower than a year earlier due to the bushfires, but not by much.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1359"></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There were about 700,000 unemployed persons at the end of the last month, so there never was any tight labour market in this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We simply never got low or tight enough to see stronger wages growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D28blnXsgiw/XoVRp2NX0DI/AAAAAAAA1DI/e6kSJ5tag6QHcqB-Cc5JlpCHJ-5qPwktwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p><span>And full employment has remained elusive throughout the full cycle.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1408"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Looking at the most timely available data from private data sets on job vacancies and other reads, it seems likely that unemployment is probably heading to about 10 per cent, although the situation is very fluid right now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level, the resources states were tracking a bit better, as Sydney and Melbourne have moved beyond their respective peaks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here to enlarge.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1400"></a></div>
<p><span>Challenging times ahead.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>
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Job vacancies are getting set for a plunge: Pete Wargent

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<div>Last week the ABS Job Vacancies series recorded New South Wales vacancies at an all-time high driven by positions in the services sector, which bodes well for Sydney employment growth.<br><br>Indeed, Sydney's economic dials have all been switched to hot for a long time now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>ANZ released its job advertisements dat<a href="https://www.media.anz.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=248677&amp;p=irol-jobad&amp;nyo=0" target="_blank">a</a> for September which showed a seasonally adjusted +3.9% jump following on from a +1.3% lift in August. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was the strongest monthly gain in 15 months and the trend estimate has now been rising since November 2013.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/07/ANZ.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/07/ANZ.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>
<div>ANZ noted that the series now appears to be stronger than had previously been thought, and that the economy seems to be adjusting relatively well to the decline in mining investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news the FCAI reported that an all-time record 1,143,104 new motor vehicle vehicles for the year to September after a +6.8 per cent year-on-year jump in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the services PMI gauge also recording a fourth month of expansion for the first time since March 2008 (following on from a 7 year high reading last month), interest rates will be left on hold this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Job ads biggest jump in 15 months: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its all-important Labour Force data for Janaury 2016. It is perhaps the most important of the data releases, so let's take a canter through it in the three short parts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Employment growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment declined by -7,900 in January to 11,894,500. In trend terms, total employment increased by +19,800.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although this was a decline for the headline result which missed market expecations, given the strength of what has gone before, in context it wasn't too bad a result. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>In trend terms total employment increased by +302,500 over the past year or +2.6 per cent, which is a high rate of employment growth in historical terms. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>However, the composition of employment does not look quite so pretty, with full time employment decreasing by -40,600 in January, and part time employment increasing by +32,700. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While full time jobs growth has been solid over the past year in rising by +2.0 per cent, the rate of part time jobs growth has been exceptionally high at +3.9 per cent. This probably represents a structural shift towards more casual jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total hours worked increased by a modest +2.0 per cent over the past year, perhaps a rather more realistic indicator of the strength of employment growth. </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br>Part 2 - NSW &amp; QLD create the jobs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>After some previously massive months of jobs growth, employment in New South Wales (and Victoria) pulled back in January, while Queensland went on to record further gains. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past six months the economy has created +143,400 jobs, with New South Wales (43 per cent) and Queensland (38 per cent) accounting for more than four-fifths of them.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Over the past year employment growth rates have ranged from an enormous +4.7 per cent in New South Wales and +3.3 per cent in Queensland, to a distinctly uninspiring -0.9 per cent in Tasmania. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Unemployment rates converge</span></strong><br><br><div>The headline result showed a seasonally adjusted increase in the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent, which will excite the pessimists. However, the result was probably more middle of the road than anything.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The participation rate has crept up to 65.2 per cent, the highest level in nearly four years, and while the number of unemployed persons recorded is volatile, it was down by 2.6 per cent over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend unemployment rate ticked down a notch to 5.8 per cent, for a 27 month low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>At the state level the monthly figures were absolutely wild once again, lurching all over the place. The trend figures point towards convergence rather than divergence between the states, with New South Wales looking to be in the best nick on this measure. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The 95 per cent confidence interval figures provided by the ABS (which ranged from -66,500 to +55,700 for the month) serve as a reminder that as estimates the monthly data shouldn't be taken too literally.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big picture suggests that although annual headline employment growth is high by historical standards, the quality of employment growth is underwhelming, with part time work and under-employment aplenty in evidence. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result ongoing low wages growth is likely to be the order of the day due to the inherent level of slack in the workforce.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The employment figures weren't too bad on the whole, but notably Goldman Sachs is now forecasting interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in both May and July, so hold on to your hats.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NSW & QLD are creating the jobs: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-7578333087738143264" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>A strong +1.6 percent increase in job advertisements in June saw year-on-year vacancies rise very strongly by +11 percent to a total of 169,600, according to the Department of Employment.</div>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" alt=""><br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Department of Employment</span></em></div>
<br><div>Total vacancies are now at their highest level in four years, which bodes well for jobs growth picking up. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Internet%20Job%20Ads.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Internet%20Job%20Ads.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the peak of the mining boom June 2012, the share of total vacancies located in Western Australia has declined from 15.6 percent to 7.8 percent. </div>
<br><div>On the other hand there has been a huge surge in vacancies in New South Wales over the past three years, up by 37.4 percent in trend terms to a massive 91,400 (a record boom). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year the percentage growth in vacancies has also been very strong in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Ads4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Ads4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In trend terms all eight occupation groups are strengthening, and over the year job advertisements were up in 33 of the 37 recorded regions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The decreases were seen in northern Queensland, Perth, and western Tasmania.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<br><div>The index has its weaknesses, particularly since it doesn't differentiate between full time and part time gigs.</div>
<br>Nevertheless, all in all, this looks pretty good for jobs growth in the second half of 2016.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Job ads up to a four-year high: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<div>Economists had expected employment to fall by 30,000 in October as Victoria's lockdown persisted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Instead we got a rollicking increase of 178,800 or 1.4 per cent, most of which were full-time jobs.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpEBQ2haIJw/X7Y03wkIJCI/AAAAAAAA5Z4/tDh7tUakT8M2RaEg_Pde2iIJ7nCxkdcvQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1448/A3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpEBQ2haIJw/X7Y03wkIJCI/AAAAAAAA5Z4/tDh7tUakT8M2RaEg_Pde2iIJ7nCxkdcvQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h356/A3.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1448"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a big leap in participation to 65.8 per cent (a huge beat - economist forecasts were for a flat result here), which is now returning close to record highs and only 0.1 pts lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the leap in participation, the unemployment rate has nestled in at 7 per cent, which is far, far better than previously feared. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HML7-IT0uLo/X7Y1n81UsOI/AAAAAAAA5aM/9H2W_17rWFEmnZ3dP0Rhrh63VBVhisDiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1423/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HML7-IT0uLo/X7Y1n81UsOI/AAAAAAAA5aM/9H2W_17rWFEmnZ3dP0Rhrh63VBVhisDiwCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/A2.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1423"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>How did economists land <em><strong>so</strong></em> far away from the target?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say for sure, but the huge rebound in Victorian employment in the month - despite the lockdown persisting through October - was an interesting and totally unexpected result. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1412/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h362/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1412"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland has added back a stunning 206,000 jobs in only 5 months, to see total employment actually higher than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But despite ostensibly adding 82,000 jobs in October, total employment in Victoria is still 124,000 lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vpEW-jL-ng/X7Y6TNgJPfI/AAAAAAAA5ak/9yyQiQD0tS8GPMqGCAb-i9i2ZbUdGDa-wCNcBGAsYHQ/s1451/A4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vpEW-jL-ng/X7Y6TNgJPfI/AAAAAAAA5ak/9yyQiQD0tS8GPMqGCAb-i9i2ZbUdGDa-wCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h354/A4.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1451"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date 648,000 of the 875,000 jobs lost have been recovered across only five months, so we are already 74 per cent of the way back to employment topping new highs at above 13 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, this was a great result, which introduces the exciting possibility of a strong snap-back in the Aussie economy in 2021. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest anyone becomes too excited at this early stage in the recovery, measures of underemployment remain understandably high, and monthly hours worked were still 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier (largely due to a huge year-on-year decline in Victoria). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October the underemployment rate by 1.0 pts to 10.4 per cent, but that's still 1.9 pts higher than a year ago.</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Employment soared higher in October: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<p>The oil price is back to its highest level since March, rising another 4 per cent to $47.91/barrel (Brent crude) today amid lower inventories and further vaccine optimism.</p>
<div id="post-body-5601314325818678673" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>Energy, arguably the main sector of the US economy demonstrating some semblance of 'value', has been quietly powering higher over the past month. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hc5_hvhNFjs/X71O8v9p9RI/AAAAAAAA5eY/InlB6hpEv6Ex_vRR2sEUWanYQTJNka_7ACNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h528/XLE.jpg" width="640" height="528" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="779"></p>
<p>US stocks more generally have been absolutely pumped, with price to sales ratios now ascending to even higher levels than the tech bubble peak of 2000. </p>
<p>That's right, the price to sales ratio (ex-financials) is now at the highest level in stock market history at above 2.7x. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b2HK376Pcy4/X71PWc8RvII/AAAAAAAA5eg/AADHBpCfXBcLG-7cPSalB2X1Tq5Qz0AYQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h426/US%2Btech.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="746"></p>
<p>The Dow Jones index took out a record 30,000 today, to some acclaim and modest fanfare.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, some of the wilder tech stocks out there could drop by two-thirds without troubling too many of the traditional metrics of valuation. </p>
<p>Yet the US economy will need to face down some serious challenges as there is a changeover of President, with the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases now surpassing 175,000 and, for now at least, still trending higher. </p>
<div>What. A. Year!</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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