<p>Macquarie York has appointed Roberts Co to as the Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) partner for its upcoming new Surfers Paradise apartment development, Sunset Residence.</p>

<p>Located at 50 Sunset Boulevard, Sunset Residences is a riverfront, design-driven tower set to elevate one of Surfers Paradise’s most rapidly transforming enclaves. The refined scheme, designed by Plus Studio, features 72 luxury residences, enhanced amenity, and improved connectivity to the Nerang &nbsp;River.&nbsp;</p>

<p>As ECI partner, Roberts Co is working closely with Macquarie York and the design team to optimise buildability, program, staging and procurement strategies ahead of construction commencement.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Macquarie York Director, Roy Skaf, said Roberts Co’s early engagement will help ensure the landmark development realises its full potential.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Sunset Residences is a signature project for Macquarie York, a chance to define a new level of riverfront living in Surfers Paradise," Skaf said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="Roberts Co appointed Early Contractor Involvement partner for Macquarie York’s Sunset Residences on the Gold Coast" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3dd22a45-168b-4e00-b6d2-4e7310b02084" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/SunsetResidences_Interior.jpg?VersionId=NAWvGq7l6BFB4vvh6u0xXWWISboHTi6q" /></p>

<p>“Partnering with Roberts Co under an ECI arrangement gives us the confidence that design decisions, construction methodology and programming are being rigorously considered from day one. Their collaborative mindset and technical capability are exactly what a project of this quality demands.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is expected to commence following completion of the ECI phase and final design resolution.</p>

<p>Sunset Residences is one of three projects Macquarie York has locally. They have Rana Palm Beach, 60 apartments on Twenty Third Avenue, and Azariah, just nine residences on the dress circle Jefferson Lane, also in Palm Beach.</p>


Joel Robinson

Macquarie York appoints Roberts & Co for early works agreement at Sunset Residences

<p>Few developers in South East Queensland have shaped the new development apartment market as profoundly, or as consistently, as Mosaic Property Group. In 2025, the business delivered another very strong year across Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast, building on the foundations of nearly two decades of discipline, long-term thinking, and relentless refinement of its craft.</p>

<p>Their continued success is driven from the top. Founder and Managing Director Brook Monahan, very much credits the success to a workforce of “massive grafters”, and a culture where complacency simply doesn’t exist.</p>

<p>“In every part of our business, we’re constantly pushing to get better” Monahan told <a href="http://apartments.com.au">Apartments.com.au</a>. “We never rest on our laurels.”</p>

<p>The company’s growth continued its upward trajectory, with the developer completing six luxury projects in 2025, representing approximately $850 million in value and delivering 536 new luxury homes. Mosaic also sold over $1.4 billion worth a new luxury apartments at an average price point of $3.41 million in 2025.</p>

<p>Heading into 2026, they have a further five projects under construction and an immediate pipeline across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, representing just shy of $2 billion in value. I spoke with Brook about everything from the evolution of Mosaic’s business to the fundamentals driving the SEQ property market.</p>

<hr />
<h2>A market defined by two forces</h2>

<p>The fundamental drivers of SEQ’s housing dynamics in 2025 are straightforward: a generational transfer of wealth on a scale Australia has never seen, and migration numbers that continue to exceed expectations.</p>

<p>“An enormous amount of wealth will move through the next decade,” Monahan explains. “That wave isn’t going anywhere.” Simultaneously, “you can’t run migration at the numbers we’re seeing, while also having a generational shift of wealth from boomers, and not expect demand to remain strong. People move here, they bring money, they want to buy a home and create a future.”</p>

<p>While top-end product in some pockets has softened from the frenzy of 18 months ago, Monahan believes&nbsp; the wave will remain “pretty strong,” especially for developers with brand trust and a long-term track record.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“The $4 million to $10 million segment remains fairly robust, but buyers are much more educated now than they’ve ever been. They have access to information and they’re smart people. They’re generally not&nbsp; willing to trust a new entrant asking $15 million with no track record.”</p>

<p>This heightened consumer discernment, he notes, is reshaping how premium projects are evaluated by developers.</p>

<hr />
<h2>The problem behind the crisis</h2>

<p>Despite strong demand, SEQ’s housing market remains severely undersupplied. Brisbane needs around 12,000 new homes per year, yet delivered only 4,000 last year. The Gold Coast requires around 6500 but delivered less than half of that. The backlog is massive.</p>

<p>“We’re probably 54,000 homes short in the next five years in Brisbane alone,” Monahan estimates. “Maybe 100,000 across the whole of Queensland.”</p>

<p>The core issue however isn’t planning.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“The planning environment is actually super supportive right now,” he says. “Approvals aren’t the problem. It’s turning approvals into real supply.”</p>

<p>The gap between development approvals and project starts has widened significantly as construction costs escalate, contractors disappear from the market, and inexperienced developers try, and fail, to bring projects to life.</p>

<p>“A development application (DA) is only part of the equation, it means little without the ability to deliver,” he explains. “Many applicants underestimate the complexity involved. It’s not just about securing a site; you need the right formula and all the right ingredients to make it work. Without that, the end result will fall short of expectations and increase the risk of project failure.</p>

<p>The result is market distortion: sites tied up by entrants who lack experience, capital certainty, construction understanding, or a realistic feasibility model. “It’s not good for the industry,” he says. “You get more and more mooted supply but very little real delivery.”</p>

<hr />
<h2>Construction realities and the coming resource crunch</h2>

<p>Beyond development capability, SEQ faces macroeconomic pressures. Over $7 billion must be delivered by late 2031 just for Olympics-related obligations. Add $18 billion in hospital and health infrastructure, and the region faces a “resource drain” Monahan believes will reshape delivery timelines and construction pricing for years.</p>

<p>“It will ultimately be great for SEQ for the next 20 years,” he says. “But it puts enormous pressure on an already chronically undersupplied housing market.”</p>

<p>This pressure will inevitably influence pricing. Double-digit growth cannot continue indefinitely, but Monahan sees no path to meaningfully lower construction costs. “It’s impossible to meet demand at a cheaper price point given labour capability and resource competition,” he says.</p>

<p>“Those who can afford it will keep paying more and the rest are fighting to get a foothold. That’s why the market keeps creeping upward.”</p>

<hr />
<h2>Mosaic’s disciplined blueprint: Only A-Grade, iconic, irreplicable</h2>

<p>With a long track record of delivery and in-house construction expertise, Mosaic works backwards from the cost of delivery to determine the right price for a site—a disciplined acquisition model they’ve adhered to from day one.</p>

<p>&nbsp;“We’re never out of the market,” Monahan says. “But we’re extremely disciplined. We don’t buy B+ sites. We won’t buy run-of-the-mill locations. Ever. That’s not our brand and it’s also not economically viable for us in most instances.”</p>

<p>Mosaic’s nine current developments illustrate this discipline:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-by-mosaic-4-rosewood-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Lily</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/marella-146-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">Marella</a>, Broadbeach: Two 30-storey buildings with permanently protected views over parkland, beach and coastline<br />
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/isabel-by-mosaic-96-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Isabel</a> and, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/josephine-by-mosaic-166-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Jospehine</a>, Burleigh Heads – all “masterpiece” sites on the Esplanade with enduring view corridors of beach, water and coastline in the heart of Burleigh<br />
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sophia-by-mosaic-1357-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Sophia</a>, Palm Beach- directly on the dunes of the most highly sought after stretch of northern Palm Beach beachfront real estate<br />
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline</a>, Broadbeach – “180 degrees beach, water and coastline views, great walk score”<br />
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford</a>, Kangaroo Point – a site Mosaic first identified in 2016. Amazing walk score, views and inner city connectivity<br />
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>, Kangaroo Point – in between the Gabba and the Kangaroo Point peninsula with amazing walk score and uninterrupted and expansive northern city and river views<br />
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1">South Brisbane (launching 2026) – core inner-city Brisbane river waterfront site on the northern end of the peninsula with amazing river connection and permanent river and city views, amazing walk score</li>
</ul>

<p>“Nothing we buy is guesswork,” Monahan says. “It’s always an iconic suburb where people genuinely want to live, with strong connections to water, lifestyle, amenity, or permanent view corridors.”</p>

<p>“Mosaic’s two most recent Brisbane acquisitions were several years in the making. The Bedford, launched on the prestigious Kangaroo Point peninsula and achieving 90 per cent sales within months was a site they identified back in 2016. The second, which is the yet to be released at 91 Montague Road in South Brisbane, has been on Mosaic’s radar since 2017.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Arguably one of Brisbane’s last great inner city riverfront sites, it sits within the city’s most dynamic cultural hub, offering unrivalled connectivity, lifestyle, and amenity, and standing as a landmark opportunity to define the next era of riverfront living.</p>

<p>“We know exactly what is and isn’t a Mosaic project. Strategic site selection is the critical foundation of everything we do. We’re always assessing opportunities, but based on our two most recent Brisbane acquisitions, it’s entirely possible that the sites we’re looking at today won’t transact for several years. That discipline is what ensures every project meets our exacting standards.”</p>

<hr />
<h2>The Mosaic engine: Consistency, capability, and relentless execution</h2>

<p>What separates Mosaic in a crowded field is not the ability to attract capital or buy a site, but the ability to deliver highly complex high end buildings, whether that is 37 storeys or 18 storeys, repeatedly and consistently.</p>

<p>“These buildings are inherently complex to deliver well,” Monahan says. “It takes a long time to know exactly what the market wants, how to deliver it, how to secure the right contractors and consultants, and how to align the product with what the market is actually willing to pay and can afford.”</p>

<p>With so many contractors exiting the market in recent years, genuine delivery capability has become increasingly rare. Monahan welcomes credible new entrants but cautions that underestimating the complexity of luxury development can lead to poor outcomes.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“It’s easy to assume high-end projects equal high returns, but without the right experience, track record, and capability, it’s a tough road. Attracting capital is one thing—delivering on expectations is another, and when that doesn’t happen, it impacts the entire market.’”</p>

<hr />
<h2>Looking to 2026: A pipeline built on patience and precision</h2>

<p>As 2025 draws to a close, Mosaic stands at the strongest point in its history. Since 2012 alone, the company has completed more than $2 billion in projects and is set to deliver another $2 billion worth of developments, hundreds of luxury apartments, all bearing Mosaic’s hallmark of impeccable delivery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Next to launch are two standout projects: Josephine, an exclusive collection of just 30 half- and full-floor ultra-luxury residences coming soon to the Burleigh Heads beachfront, and a landmark tower on Montague Road in South Brisbane, comprising 204 apartments in the heart of the city’s cultural hub on the banks of the Brisbane river.</p>

<p>“We never arrive. There’s no finish line for us,” said Monahan. “Our focus is on continuing to evolve in the luxury space, creating incredible, design- and lifestyle-led properties that people love living in and that stand the test of time.”<br />
&nbsp;</p>


What’s ahead for South East Queensland’s next development wave: Five minutes with Mosaic’s Brook Monahan

<p>Developer Third.i has topped out its luxury Potts Point apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/muse-potts-point-30-34-brougham-street-potts-point-nsw-2011">Muse</a>.</p>

<p>Under construction by Dilcara and expected to complete in mid-2026, Muse comprises just 13 apartments designed by acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/wmk-architecture">WMK Architecture</a> and Mathieson. The building’s design celebrates Potts Point’s heritage character while introducing refined modern elements like advanced building technology and private balconies and terraces that offer views of the Sydney city skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112613 project_image_fid=231687]</p>

<p>Luke Berry, Director &amp; Co-Founder at Thirdi Group, said Muse is a celebration of Potts Point’s unique character and charm.</p>

<p>"With only 13 residences, we’ve created something truly special for those who appreciate exclusivity and design excellence," Berry says"</p>

<p>"The views, the location, and the lifestyle make Muse a rare opportunity in Sydney’s property market. We’re thrilled to see the project take shape and look forward to welcoming our residents in mid-2026.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112613 project_image_fid=231686]</p>

<p>Only a limited number of residences remain at Muse.</p>

<p>Third.i recently launched The Rushcutters nearby, also just 13 large-scale apartments. The two-bedroom apartments were all snapped up in double-quick time. The three-bedroom apartments are priced from just under $5 million.</p>

<p>Potts Point has always been popular for apartment living, but given the lack of suitable development sites in the affluent suburb, new apartment developments have been few and far between.</p>

<p>Early next year Ceerose will launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/belgravia-potts-point-117-victoria-street-potts-point-nsw-2011">Belgravia</a>, a mix of two- and three-bedroom apartments on Victoria Street.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112613]</p>


Staff Writer

Third.i tops out Muse, Potts Point apartments

<p>Buyer interest in Capital Corporation’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-residences-at-wahroonga-estate-169-fox-valley-road-wahroonga-nsw-2076">The Residences at Wahroonga Estate</a> has been gaining momentum following the recent groundbreaking and the commencement of construction.</p>

<p>Enquiry data has pointed to a clear theme: larger apartments are leading demand, particularly among downsizers who want to remain on Sydney’s Upper North Shore.</p>

<p>Since June, three-bedroom layouts have attracted the highest level of enquiry. The three-bed, two-bath, two-car apartments priced from $1.69 million generated the most enquiries, the highest of any floorplan, followed by the larger three-bed garden residences which are priced at $2.25 million.</p>

<p>It's been a prevailing theme for Capital Corporation, who, in the early stages of marketing, reacted to buyer feedback to create more three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p>The numbers echo what <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/capital-corporation">Capital Corporation</a> has observed since the project’s early stages. Buyers want generous internal space, established amenity and the ability to age in place without leaving the area.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=284378]</p>

<p>Capital Corporation Managing Director Jim Hunter said this was a major factor in the estate’s momentum, noting that “the combination of premium design, convenience and direct access to Sydney’s leading private hospital has proven to be a major drawcard”.</p>

<p>That connection to health and wellbeing has proven especially influential for older owner-occupiers. Research commissioned by Capital Corporation found that one in three Australians downsizing do so for health-related reasons, with a third specifically seeking proximity to medical facilities.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=262185]</p>

<p>The buyer profile emerging at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/wahroonga-nsw-2076">Wahroonga</a> Estate reflects this shift. Local residents Peter and Corinne Collins, both in their mid-70s, are among those who chose to downsize within the suburb after decades in their family home. They secured a top-floor three-bedroom apartment after queuing on launch day in March, citing the bushland setting, walkability, and peace of mind of being close to medical services as key reasons for their purchase.</p>

<p>“Being able to walk everywhere, including to the hospital if we need to, really gave us peace of mind,” Corinne told Apartments.com.au.</p>

<p><strong><em>Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/from-family-home-to-bushland-retreat-why-peter-and-corinne-chose-the-residences-at-wahroonga-estate">From family home to bushland retreat: Why Peter and Corinne chose The Residences at Wahroonga Estate</a></em></strong></p>

<p><strong><em>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=3629]</em></strong></p>

<p>Architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">Group GSA</a>&nbsp;are behind the design at The Residences at Wahroonga Estate. There are 128 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, complete with interiors&nbsp;by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/coco-republic-interior-design">Coco Republic</a>. Floor-to-ceiling glass maximises views of the bushland ridgeline, while on-site amenity includes a residents’ lounge, pet-friendly Green Spine, BBQ pavilion and direct access to Coups Creek bushland and walking tracks.</p>

<p>Gold Star iCIRT-rated builder&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/dasco-australia">DASCO</a>&nbsp;was&nbsp;appointed earlier this year to deliver The Residences at Wahroonga Estate. They are expected to complete the building in late 2027, with residents to move in shortly after.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135247]</p>


Downsizer demand continues to shape The Residences at Wahroonga Estate

<p>With Brisbane’s housing market soaring and home ownership becoming increasingly out of reach for many buyers, townhouses have emerged as the new urban dream, offering private, low-maintenance retreats complete with pools, parklands, and lifestyle amenities.</p>

<p>As Brisbane faces a growing shortage of quality new residential offerings, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/honeycombes-property-group">Honeycombes Property Group</a> has released to the market Songbird Terraces, a boutique development of just 34 terrace homes in the heart of the leafy residential enclave of Oxley.</p>

<p>Offering a more affordable option to the white picket fence house, buyers can purchase a brand new architecturally designed three bedroom terrace home overlooking park and bushland with a communal heated pool, BBQ terrace, private parklands and an on-site café, while being just minutes from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/oxley-qld-4075">Oxley</a>’s village centre, train station, and a range of schools and amenities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=5241]</p>

<p>Each of the spacious three bedroom plus multi purpose room or four bedroom townhomes feature premium finishes, landscaped courtyards, designer kitchens, two-car accommodation, and optional upgrades for tailored living.</p>

<p>Honeycombes Property Group Managing Director Peter Honeycombe said with completion anticipated in early 2027, this was an incredibly rare chance to buy a fixed-price, brand-new, off the plan home in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held and liveable suburbs, without the stress of auctions and chaotic open homes.</p>

<p>“With prices starting from $1.195 million, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/songbird-terraces-oxley-10-honeyeater-circuit-oxley-qld-4075">Songbird Terraces</a> are designed for owner occupiers seeking space, style and lifestyle, without the maintenance,” Honeycombe said.</p>

<p>“Surrounded by natural bushland and close to manicured parks, walking trails, boutique shops, cafes, cinemas and golf courses, Oxley continues to stand out as one of Brisbane’s most liveable suburbs.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=355541]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> Residential Director Andrew Scriven said with a limited number of homes available, Songbird Terraces was attracting strong interest from families, upsizers, first home buyers and downsizers looking for quality, location and long-term value.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Demand is high, supply is low, and the market is crying out for high-quality homes in established well connected areas like Oxley,” Scriven said.</p>

<p>“What was once seen as a compromise between a house and an apartment a townhouse has now become a lifestyle choice, more and more homebuyers are shifting their focus from traditional detached houses to modern, low-maintenance townhouses that offer greater value and convenience.</p>

<p>“As the city’s population grows and urban sprawl becomes less sustainable, Brisbane’s townhouse market is set to expand even further.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“There’s definitely a panic from buyers who’ve been pushed out of the house market but still want to stay in well-connected suburbs with great schools and amenities, they are worried they will miss out as property prices continually rise.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=5238]</p>

<p>After eight years of calling Australia home, Agnes Skoraczewska and Matt Biskupski decided it was finally time to take the next step and purchase a home of their own. With property prices continuing to climb, the couple didn’t want to wait any longer and secured a three-bedroom plus multi purpose room townhouse at Songbird Terraces, locking in a fixed price ahead of their move in 2027.</p>

<p>“The truth is, we didn’t want to wait any longer,” Biskupski said. “Seeing what was happening in the market, we realised now was the right time to buy. It gives us peace of mind knowing we no longer have to worry about renting.”</p>

<p>When they discovered Songbird Terraces, the decision came easily.</p>

<p>“The area is lovely and quiet, yet still so close to the city, it’s the perfect balance for work and life,” Skoraczewska said. “It’s a place where we can recharge our batteries while staying connected to everything we need.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=5237]</p>

<p>For Agnes and Matt, buying off the plan offered the ideal solution, the confidence of securing their dream home at today’s prices, and the excitement of planning for the future in a community that perfectly fits their lifestyle.</p>

<p>As the final residential precinct within the Songbird Oxley master plan, Songbird Terraces will continue to breathe new life into the area and help create a suburb destination rich in lifestyle amenity.</p>

<p>Colliers Residential Director Lily O'Connell said Songbird is positioned to take full advantage of elevated north and east-facing parkland views, the homes feature low-maintenance design and high energy efficiency to reduce ongoing costs while enhancing everyday comfort.</p>

<p>“And with an array of layouts, catering to a diverse range of lifestyles this is an offering for all,” O'Connell said.</p>

<p>“This is the final release in a masterplanned community that’s become one of Oxley’s most desirable addresses, offering a last chance to enter this community where opportunities are few and far between.”</p>

<p>The homes will be delivered by Clearcon Builders, specialists in premium townhome construction. They will commence construction before Christmas, and is aiming to complete the development in early 2027.</p>

<h2>Songbird Terraces Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>34 architecturally designed 3 bedroom + multi-purpose room terrace homes.</li>
	<li>An array of layouts, catering to a diverse range of lifestyles.</li>
	<li>Perfectly positioned to take advantage of north and east views over park and bushland.</li>
	<li>A multi-purpose room, which can serve as a second living area, teen retreat, study or fourth bedroom.</li>
	<li>Designer kitchens featuring high quality engineered stone benchtops and European appliances.</li>
	<li>Spacious outdoor living areas and landscaped courtyards perfect for alfresco dining.</li>
	<li>Generous internal and external spaces, designed to take advantage of views overlooking park and bushland.</li>
	<li>Low maintenance, energy efficient &amp; two car accommodation.</li>
	<li>Access to a heated resort-style pool, outdoor entertaining terrace and beautifully landscaped gardens and park.</li>
</ul>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149443]</p>


Songbird Terraces offer 34 architect-designed townhomes in private enclave, surrounded by bushland, parks and resort style amenity

Townhouse living, Brisbane’s new affordable urban dream?

Employment

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.</p>

<p>But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      </p>

<p>Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  </p>

<p>There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  </p>

<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.</p>

<p><strong>What do you need to know? </strong></p>

<p>Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.</p>

<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).</p>

<p>Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.</p>

<p>Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.</p>

<p>Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  </p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.</p>

<p>The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.</p>

<p>The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.</p>

<p>The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       </p>

<p> </p>
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cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/labour-market-weakness-under-hood"></a></h3>
<div id="post-body-5100146898223249015" class="post-body entry-content">Let's begin with the good news, because I'm in a jolly good mood and don't want to spoil it.<br><br>It won't take long anyway, as there isn't really that much good news to report!<br><br><div>The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.35 percent in original terms, the lowest in well over three years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate of 5.58 percent was the lowest in 42 months, and well below the 6.32 percent seen in January 2015 (click the graphics to expand, as always!).<br><br>
</div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/11/18/D1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/D1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Drilling the trend line through the figures, the unemployment rate of 5.6 percent looks healthy enough. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<img src="/images/2016/11/18/B3.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the trend unemployment rate has continued to decline to just 4.89 per cent, the lowest figure in nearly six years, while Victoria and Queensland are also moving in the right direction.<br><br>The trend hasn't caught up but Queensland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 per cent. Bonzer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Tasmania and Western Australia are heading the other way. </div>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Although not charted here due to their respective small sample sizes, the unemployment rates in the Northern Territory (3.5 per cent) and the ACT (3.4 per cent) are low. </div>
<br>OK, that's great. Now brace for the not-so-cheerful news....<br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Jobs and growth?" Maaate...</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hiring is usually strong at this time of year, and total employment increased by about +78,800 over the last two months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for seasonality, however, this month's increase was only +9,800, although that figure did at least include a vast swing back to full-time employment of +41,500. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This all sounds cool until we revisit what happened last month, which was a big seasonally adjusted drop in employment, while full-time employment is nearly 90,000 lower than at the beginning of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking through the noise, the trend in employment growth now looks poor. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Another way to look at this is to view the annual trend employment change, which has dropped to +108,100, or an a trend annual increase of only +0.9 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The annual rate of employment growth is at its lowest level in 23 months and is now below the rate of population growth, and categorically 'not good enough'!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has now cruised to the top of the employment growth charts, with Victoria (+107,300) and New South Wales (+46,100) accounting for more than all of the net employment growth over the past year.<br><br>Employment in Tasmania dived by -3,400 in October to be -4,300 lower than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland employment fell by -16,900 in the month, and by -46,000 over the year. This month's result was a rogue statistic due to the sample rotation from September, though there's no question that employment in aggregate has weakened in the Sunshine State, led by resources-related job losses in locations such as Townsville. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the Queensland figures by region in more detail next week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/18/B6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson highlighted that 67,600 jobs had been lost in Queensland since the beginning of the year and that "anyone who sees today's result as good news doesn't understand how tough it is to find a job in Queensland".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He's right about the second part, but clearly he didn't read the commentary on the incoming sample and cocked up his numbers by calculating them from the end of January rather than the beginning. Maybe that was deliberate. Oh well, at least his job doesn't require strong numeracy skills! </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>While the unemployment rate superficially looks positive, the participation rate is well down and now at the lowest level since early 2006. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite a much improved monthly result, total hours worked - as useful an indicator as any when looking at a volatile survey - increased by only +0.9 per cent over the year to October, and less in trend terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And despite the wild swing back to full-time employment this month, it's important to see through the monthly noise and understand that much of the growth in jobs has been part-time in nature over recent times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we have the weakest nominal wages growth on record, some of the weakest non-tradables inflationary pressures on record, and weak employment growth across recent months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sounds like the easing cycle isn't over to me, but markets remain tentative for now, and job vacancies figures have admittedly been solid enough.<br><br>I will just note that when the labour force report prints solidly most commentary states that it must be somehow wrong, yet when the figures are weaker (as they are now) they are instantly taken at face value!<br><br>Something to bear in mind if the headline figure snaps back up next month...</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Labour market: weakness under the hood

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<div>I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 percent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A valid question is: why?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Employees flocking to eastern capitals: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Job vacancies had barely begin their decline by the end of February, holding up at about 227,000.</span></p>
<p><span>Vacancies were lower than a year earlier due to the bushfires, but not by much.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1359"></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There were about 700,000 unemployed persons at the end of the last month, so there never was any tight labour market in this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We simply never got low or tight enough to see stronger wages growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D28blnXsgiw/XoVRp2NX0DI/AAAAAAAA1DI/e6kSJ5tag6QHcqB-Cc5JlpCHJ-5qPwktwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p><span>And full employment has remained elusive throughout the full cycle.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1408"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Looking at the most timely available data from private data sets on job vacancies and other reads, it seems likely that unemployment is probably heading to about 10 per cent, although the situation is very fluid right now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level, the resources states were tracking a bit better, as Sydney and Melbourne have moved beyond their respective peaks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here to enlarge.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1400"></a></div>
<p><span>Challenging times ahead.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>
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Job vacancies are getting set for a plunge: Pete Wargent

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<div>Last week the ABS Job Vacancies series recorded New South Wales vacancies at an all-time high driven by positions in the services sector, which bodes well for Sydney employment growth.<br><br>Indeed, Sydney's economic dials have all been switched to hot for a long time now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>ANZ released its job advertisements dat<a href="https://www.media.anz.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=248677&amp;p=irol-jobad&amp;nyo=0" target="_blank">a</a> for September which showed a seasonally adjusted +3.9% jump following on from a +1.3% lift in August. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was the strongest monthly gain in 15 months and the trend estimate has now been rising since November 2013.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/07/ANZ.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/07/ANZ.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>
<div>ANZ noted that the series now appears to be stronger than had previously been thought, and that the economy seems to be adjusting relatively well to the decline in mining investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news the FCAI reported that an all-time record 1,143,104 new motor vehicle vehicles for the year to September after a +6.8 per cent year-on-year jump in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the services PMI gauge also recording a fourth month of expansion for the first time since March 2008 (following on from a 7 year high reading last month), interest rates will be left on hold this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Job ads biggest jump in 15 months: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its all-important Labour Force data for Janaury 2016. It is perhaps the most important of the data releases, so let's take a canter through it in the three short parts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Employment growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment declined by -7,900 in January to 11,894,500. In trend terms, total employment increased by +19,800.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although this was a decline for the headline result which missed market expecations, given the strength of what has gone before, in context it wasn't too bad a result. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>In trend terms total employment increased by +302,500 over the past year or +2.6 per cent, which is a high rate of employment growth in historical terms. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>However, the composition of employment does not look quite so pretty, with full time employment decreasing by -40,600 in January, and part time employment increasing by +32,700. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While full time jobs growth has been solid over the past year in rising by +2.0 per cent, the rate of part time jobs growth has been exceptionally high at +3.9 per cent. This probably represents a structural shift towards more casual jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total hours worked increased by a modest +2.0 per cent over the past year, perhaps a rather more realistic indicator of the strength of employment growth. </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br>Part 2 - NSW &amp; QLD create the jobs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>After some previously massive months of jobs growth, employment in New South Wales (and Victoria) pulled back in January, while Queensland went on to record further gains. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past six months the economy has created +143,400 jobs, with New South Wales (43 per cent) and Queensland (38 per cent) accounting for more than four-fifths of them.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Over the past year employment growth rates have ranged from an enormous +4.7 per cent in New South Wales and +3.3 per cent in Queensland, to a distinctly uninspiring -0.9 per cent in Tasmania. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Unemployment rates converge</span></strong><br><br><div>The headline result showed a seasonally adjusted increase in the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent, which will excite the pessimists. However, the result was probably more middle of the road than anything.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The participation rate has crept up to 65.2 per cent, the highest level in nearly four years, and while the number of unemployed persons recorded is volatile, it was down by 2.6 per cent over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend unemployment rate ticked down a notch to 5.8 per cent, for a 27 month low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>At the state level the monthly figures were absolutely wild once again, lurching all over the place. The trend figures point towards convergence rather than divergence between the states, with New South Wales looking to be in the best nick on this measure. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The 95 per cent confidence interval figures provided by the ABS (which ranged from -66,500 to +55,700 for the month) serve as a reminder that as estimates the monthly data shouldn't be taken too literally.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big picture suggests that although annual headline employment growth is high by historical standards, the quality of employment growth is underwhelming, with part time work and under-employment aplenty in evidence. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result ongoing low wages growth is likely to be the order of the day due to the inherent level of slack in the workforce.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The employment figures weren't too bad on the whole, but notably Goldman Sachs is now forecasting interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in both May and July, so hold on to your hats.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NSW & QLD are creating the jobs: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-7578333087738143264" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>A strong +1.6 percent increase in job advertisements in June saw year-on-year vacancies rise very strongly by +11 percent to a total of 169,600, according to the Department of Employment.</div>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" alt=""><br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Department of Employment</span></em></div>
<br><div>Total vacancies are now at their highest level in four years, which bodes well for jobs growth picking up. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Internet%20Job%20Ads.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Internet%20Job%20Ads.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the peak of the mining boom June 2012, the share of total vacancies located in Western Australia has declined from 15.6 percent to 7.8 percent. </div>
<br><div>On the other hand there has been a huge surge in vacancies in New South Wales over the past three years, up by 37.4 percent in trend terms to a massive 91,400 (a record boom). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year the percentage growth in vacancies has also been very strong in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Ads4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Ads4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In trend terms all eight occupation groups are strengthening, and over the year job advertisements were up in 33 of the 37 recorded regions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The decreases were seen in northern Queensland, Perth, and western Tasmania.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<br><div>The index has its weaknesses, particularly since it doesn't differentiate between full time and part time gigs.</div>
<br>Nevertheless, all in all, this looks pretty good for jobs growth in the second half of 2016.</div>
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<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<div> </div>
</div>
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Job ads up to a four-year high: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<div>Economists had expected employment to fall by 30,000 in October as Victoria's lockdown persisted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Instead we got a rollicking increase of 178,800 or 1.4 per cent, most of which were full-time jobs.</div>
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<div> </div>
<div>There was a big leap in participation to 65.8 per cent (a huge beat - economist forecasts were for a flat result here), which is now returning close to record highs and only 0.1 pts lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the leap in participation, the unemployment rate has nestled in at 7 per cent, which is far, far better than previously feared. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>How did economists land <em><strong>so</strong></em> far away from the target?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say for sure, but the huge rebound in Victorian employment in the month - despite the lockdown persisting through October - was an interesting and totally unexpected result. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1412/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W-rtO8RHMtQ/X7Y1nwgBI0I/AAAAAAAA5aI/hFNGmF-0Kbw4WLe4bzj_4GptN6KTXHixQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h362/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1412"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland has added back a stunning 206,000 jobs in only 5 months, to see total employment actually higher than a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But despite ostensibly adding 82,000 jobs in October, total employment in Victoria is still 124,000 lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date 648,000 of the 875,000 jobs lost have been recovered across only five months, so we are already 74 per cent of the way back to employment topping new highs at above 13 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, this was a great result, which introduces the exciting possibility of a strong snap-back in the Aussie economy in 2021. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest anyone becomes too excited at this early stage in the recovery, measures of underemployment remain understandably high, and monthly hours worked were still 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier (largely due to a huge year-on-year decline in Victoria). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October the underemployment rate by 1.0 pts to 10.4 per cent, but that's still 1.9 pts higher than a year ago.</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Employment soared higher in October: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<p>The oil price is back to its highest level since March, rising another 4 per cent to $47.91/barrel (Brent crude) today amid lower inventories and further vaccine optimism.</p>
<div id="post-body-5601314325818678673" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>Energy, arguably the main sector of the US economy demonstrating some semblance of 'value', has been quietly powering higher over the past month. </p>
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<p>US stocks more generally have been absolutely pumped, with price to sales ratios now ascending to even higher levels than the tech bubble peak of 2000. </p>
<p>That's right, the price to sales ratio (ex-financials) is now at the highest level in stock market history at above 2.7x. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b2HK376Pcy4/X71PWc8RvII/AAAAAAAA5eg/AADHBpCfXBcLG-7cPSalB2X1Tq5Qz0AYQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h426/US%2Btech.jpg" width="640" height="426" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="746"></p>
<p>The Dow Jones index took out a record 30,000 today, to some acclaim and modest fanfare.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, some of the wilder tech stocks out there could drop by two-thirds without troubling too many of the traditional metrics of valuation. </p>
<p>Yet the US economy will need to face down some serious challenges as there is a changeover of President, with the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases now surpassing 175,000 and, for now at least, still trending higher. </p>
<div>What. A. Year!</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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