Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Economy

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GUEST OBSERVATION
When the powerful gather for the G20 summit in Brisbane this November, the core mandate is to discuss measures to support global economic growth, including trade liberalisation, investment and infrastructure development.
These discussions are very important for tourism – an industry that relies on the free movement of people and goods. Issues such as lifting visa restrictions are central to the mandate of agencies such as the United Nations World Tourism Organisation. In fact, at a time where we believe that people can travel freely wherever and whenever they like to, an astonishing 110 million international tourists – or 17% of all international arrivals – still require paper visas to be able to visit G20 countries.
Reducing barriers through visa requirements is essential for international tourism. Research commissioned by the <a href="https://www.wttc.org/site_media/uploads/downloads/Impact_ASEAN.PDF" target="_blank">World Travel and Tourism Council</a> (WTTC) in 2014 showed that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would gain between 6 to 10 million additional international tourist arrivals by 2016 if they facilitated and improved visa processes.
Tourism relies on safe destinations and political security, something that cannot be emphasised enough in the light of current <a href="https://www.globalconflictmap.com/" target="_blank">“conflict hotspots”</a> globally (including the Middle East, Ukraine, and the South China Sea). <a href="https://www.iipt.org/" target="_blank">Some</a> even point to tourism as a force for peace as it fosters inter-cultural understanding and friendly exchange between nations.
Directly, the summit leads to travel of those participating in it. What could be coined <a href="https://www.uper.org/UPER-martinotti.pdf" target="_blank">“political tourism”</a>, political meetings and conferences induce substantial amounts of travel. For the G20 in Brisbane it is expected that there will be about 4,000 delegates (some of whom will arrive with their families), 3,000 media, and 5,300 police from interstate and New Zealand.
Business tourism is often overlooked when we discuss tourism, but the <a href="https://www.wttc.org/research/policy-research/business-travel-research/">WTTC</a> established a compelling link between business travel and global trade: one third of growth in trade globally over the last 10 years can be attributed to business-related travel and resulting increases in corporate productivity. WTTC’s analysis also shows that if business travel was reduced by one quarter for two consecutive years, global GDP would be 5% lower than if travel continued as normal.
The average business tourist in Australia spends A$280 per night, compared with a holiday visitor who spends $162.
Research on the economic benefit of G8 and G20 summits valued the 2009 and 2010 US and Canada summits at US$135 million and US$95.4 million respectively. The benefits measured include the immediate spending of participants and longer-term effects of increased investment, infrastructure and training. Similar numbers have been advanced as an <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/study-shows-g20-hosts-reap-the-economic-benefits-20131202-2ym6j#ixzz34IbfpFoa" target="_blank">estimate</a> for the Brisbane summit.
How is Australia performing?
Eleven out of Australia’s top 20 international markets are G20 members. Amongst these are key markets such as China, the US, Japan, Korea and the UK. Other G20 countries, such as Russia, Brazil or Saudi Arabia, are not yet in the top 20 markets to Australia, but are seen as promising “emerging markets”.
Considering many of the traditional markets to Australia have been stagnating since the global financial crisis, and emerging markets are experiencing fast growth, increasing destination awareness in these countries represents a significant opportunity.
But focusing on one event, and dedicating tourism infrastructure to it, may also crowd out other forms of tourism, for example leisure tourists. Research on sport mega events has found that peaks in arrivals due to the event can be followed by a “low” in visitation, because participants or spectators time their visit for the event. This may be less relevant for political summits. However there might be other risks associated with political tourism. Hosting a political summit always bears the risk of “counter-summits” and activism that might undermine the destination image.
From a research perspective, major events have been analysed mainly with a focus on mega-sport events, for example Olympic Games, Commonwealth Games, and FIFA World Cups. Political summits have received very limited attention (with <a href="https://www.cuc.ac.jp/eng/gpac/papers/snu/SNUtourism.pdf">some exceptions</a>).
Research to establish whether political events are different from other events, perhaps because of their political nature and the types of delegates, is yet to be undertaken, and the Brisbane G20 provides an excellent opportunity to research the economic impact of the summit, and compare it to other events hosted previously in Australia.
Susanne Becken is professor of sustainable tourism and director Griffith Institute for Tourism at Griffith University.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
</body></html>

po-LsXgBTHBmX

Hosting a World Cup is nice, but the G20 could prove more lucrative

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The fastest growing sector in the economy today is not mining, retailing or even education. It’s superannuation, which accounts for almost 30% more than the total savings held by the banking and mutual sector.
Self-managed superannuation is the fastest growing form of investment vehicle.
This has altered the landscape of both property and share investment. In the property market there are well-established regulations and safeguards. The stock market is a different story.
The proposed takeover of David Jones by the South African-based Woolworths and the deal made by Woolworths to buy Solomon Lew’s stake in David Jones, who happens to own an equally large share of Country Road (another takeover target of Woolworths), highlights the problem.
The board of the takeover target recommends to its shareholders what to do, but there is no formal requirement for shareholder approval. It’s assumed if the shareholders sell, that’s their approval. If they don’t sell, they don’t approve.
In the case of David Jones, a wealthy, assertive investor is getting a side deal not available to other investors.
Why should this happen?
In other countries, a formal takeover requires shareholder approval, thus discouraging side deals to occur where some walk away with large profits and others get what they can.
David Jones
The David Jones takeover provided an opportunity for some to simply profiteer, to the extent they could make more money linking this deal with others, thus cornering Woolworths to pay for deals it may not have planned.
If anything, the David Jones scenario raises questions as to whether a takeover of this nature is manipulative, unfair to ordinary shareholders and a distortion of the market mechanism.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has intervened, asking questions about the side deal protecting the interests of David Jones' shareholders by intervening in Woolworths' $2.2 billion takeover bid for David Jones.
As ASIC threatens to withhold its consent to the scheme of arrangement, a core part of the $2.2 billion takeover is arguing that a collateral benefit to one shareholder is not available to the other shareholders. The board is so keen to push the takeover that they are prepared to sell the takeover on the basis that the millions made on the side by Lew should not kill the deal.
Directors should of course be supporting the interest of the company as a whole and of all the shareholders. In the past the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2006/dec/14/australia.theairlineindustry">Allco Finance Group takeover of Qantas</a> had the same set of facts. A takeover favouring those few in particular linked to the board is a further reason for ASIC’s intervention.
ASIC is not about increasing share prices - it’s about access to a fair price. If one shareholder gets a huge side bonus which increases the prices, should those getting the crumbs be happy? Are their shares the same of those getting the bonus?
ASIC had failed in the Federal Court to force David Jones to secure an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/asic-steps-into-david-jones-country-road-battles-with-demand-for-independent-valuation-20140702-zstnq">independent valuation of the “collateral benefit”</a> that Woolworths was offering to one of its shareholders simply to buy his support for the David Jones scheme of arrangement. ASIC can always withhold a letter of consent for the scheme, on the grounds that all David Jones shareholders are not being treated equally.
In response, David Jones has provided shareholders with additional information to help show shareholders how this deal was done.
All this could be resolved if shareholders were given the complete, true facts in an accessible manner, and if takeover predators were forced to make the same offer to all and let shareholders decide.
Why the loophole exists
Law reform in the area of takeovers is well overdue and belongs to another age. Unlisted companies don’t require shareholder approval for takeovers on the presumption that shareholders don’t have enough information. The idea is public information and scrutiny aren’t as readily available as for listed companies.
This thought process belongs to a pre-internet era and is not very relevant today. The rule has been kept as it tends to favour larger investors who play the game of takeover and sales. Allowing other smaller shareholders more power would complicate the game, which explains why governments have kept their distance from changing these laws.
The world has moved on, and it’s only a matter of time before the predators and profiteers further manipulate the hordes of superannuation investors in the market to extract extraordinary profits.
It’s time for a closer look at shareholders' rights, together with the regulation of the market place, to discourage two-tier takeover offers - one for the well-connected and aggressive market operators and another for the other shareholders.
Michael Peters is lecturer at <a href="https://www.asb.unsw.edu.au/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australian School of Business</a>.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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To protect SMSF investors the stock market needs the same safeguards property has

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has ticked off on a major item on the “to do” list for Australian policy-makers: raise the rate of growth in labour productivity.
In his keynote speech at the 2014 ESAMACE conference in Hobart last week, Stevens presented data showing that labour productivity – the value of output produced per hour of labour time – increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the three years to June 2013.
This is a large jump compared with the rate of just 0.9% per annum in the preceding five years, the period which saw higher productivity growth added to the “to do” list. Stevens interpreted the increased rate of growth in labour productivity since 2010 as evidence that “a number of sectors are making serious efforts to control costs and lift productivity”.
Labour productivity is up
The argument that the rate of growth in labour productivity in Australia has accelerated in recent years certainly seems robust. For example, looking at slightly different periods than Stevens, <a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_H1wGTm98W3RTZNV3JIc2FET2M/edit?pli=1">in a recent study</a>, I have also shown an increasing rate of growth in labour productivity over the past decade. I calculate that annual labour productivity growth in Australia was 1.15% per annum from 2003 to 2008 and 1.45% per annum from 2008 to 2013.
What I believe requires more scrutiny is the cause of the acceleration in labour productivity growth. To be able to think properly about the causes of growth in labour productivity it is important to understand one big fact: labour productivity differs hugely between industries.
The mining differential
Taking an average over the period from 2003 to 2013, I find that, for example, at the top of the list, an hour of labour in mining produced output worth almost $320, whereas at the bottom of the list, an hour of labour in the accommodation and food services industry produced output worth just under $32 per hour (expressed in 2010-11 prices). Levels of labour productivity in other industries were between these amounts.
The huge differences in labour productivity between industries are mainly driven by differences in the capital intensity of production between industries. Workers in mining have their labour combined with much larger amounts of capital equipment than in accommodation and food services, and hence an hour of their labour produces a larger value of output.
That labour productivity differs so much between industries has major implications for how we should interpret the causes of a rise in the Australia-wide average level of labour productivity.
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Ways to interpret the data
One way in which labour productivity can rise is the same as Stevens suggested in his speech. This is if workers within all (or many) industries become more productive. For example, suppose that the value of output produced by an hour of labour in mining increased from $320 to $330 and in accommodation and food services increased from $32 to $33. Then that growth in labour productivity within industries will raise the average level of labour productivity in Australia.
There is, however, a second way in which average labour productivity can increase. Suppose that we take a worker who previously had a job in the accommodation and food services industry and switch their job to the mining industry. That worker used to produce output worth $32 per hour, but will now produce output worth $320 per hour. Hence the average level of productivity in Australia will increase because a worker has been switched from a low-productivity industry to a high-productivity industry.
What I find in my analysis of labour productivity over the past decade in Australia is that it is changes in the industry composition of employment – the second way I described above - that have been the main cause of growth. In particular I find that the increases in the proportion of workers in mining have been most influential.
Between 2002-03 and 2012-13 the proportion of total hours worked in Australia accounted for by the mining industry increased from 1.2% to 3.1%. Because labour productivity is so high in the mining industry, this has the effect of raising the average level of labour productivity in Australia. I estimate that, without this shift towards the high productivity mining industry, labour productivity growth in Australia would have been only 0.2% per annum from 2003 to 2008, and 0.1% from 2008 to 2013. So rather than the higher rate of growth in labour productivity reflecting sectors making “serious efforts to contain costs and lift productivity”, I would argue that most of the acceleration in growth simply reflects a faster rate of increase in mining employment.
A different picture
In fact, far from productivity improving within industries, the opposite has happened in some key industries. Between 2003 and 2013 labour productivity in mining fell from $458 per hour to $238 per hour. This is a massive decline and has had the effect of lowering average labour productivity in Australia. I estimate that if labour productivity in mining had remained unchanged from 2003 then the rate of growth in labour productivity in Australia in the past five years would have virtually doubled to 2.8% per annum.
Acceleration in labour productivity growth in recent years therefore should be seen to reflect a shift in employment to the high-productivity mining industry rather than workers within industries becoming more productive. What does this mean for the future of labour productivity growth in Australia?
In the short to medium term it is probably good news. The mining boom is not over, and while the proportion of workers in the mining industry remains at its current high level, we will continue to get the benefit of having more workers in this high productivity industry. We are also likely to benefit from growth in productivity within the mining industry. The level of labour productivity in mining is currently at an historic low. Falling commodity prices are creating an imperative for cost savings in mining that will drive productivity improvement.
But it is also clear that in the longer-run, we face an adjustment. Once the mining boom slows, and workers shift out of that industry into other industries with lower-productivity jobs, there will be a drag on the average level of labour productivity in Australia. Then we really will need improvements in productivity that come from within industries.
Jeff Borland is professor of economics at University of Melbourne.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Labour productivity has risen – but it’s not exactly a good news story

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An interesting release from Australia's largest mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group, showing some notable trends in the Aussie property market.
The index is highly seasonal, of course, as we are now into the cold winter months - and most certainly in Sydney we are!
Stripping out seasonality, mortgage demand sits some 23% higher than it was a year ago.
Even allowing for any possible shifts in AFG's market share, this implies a huge annualised uplift in mortgages sold:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Y6RNrL1ZFBc/U7SvsRlQbvI/AAAAAAAAOOs/cVdY8ya1T7o/s1600/AFg6.jpg">
The average mortgage size by state shows that how it has been New South Wales and specifically Sydney which has driven the property boom over the past 18 months.
Queensland has also been a strong performer over the 12 months from July 2013.
Elsewhere, markets have been solid enough, but relatively much more subdued:
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KTJ0y5gnZqs/U7Svs_LC0gI/AAAAAAAAOOc/rF4Cf7JvuvE/s1600/Afg1.jpg">
One trend we are watching is the role of investors by state, and in particular whether investors will spread their wings to look at the Sunshine State of Queensland next up in seeking yield and value.
There has been an uplift in the share of investors in the Queensland market, but Sydney remains the speculator's paradise with more than 45% of the mortgage market being sen up by investment purchases:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sHzCLOouTno/U7SwGxPWEVI/AAAAAAAAOO0/0YWRcv0ET_g/s1600/AFG7.jpg">
In terms of mortgages sold for the state, New South Wales demand has ripped upwards by +33% year on year, despite the low number of reported first home buyers.
It will be interesting to see if NSW mortgage demand resumes its upwards trajectory from July through to December as it did in 2013:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ceaR2JP-uZ8/U7Svro9UdXI/AAAAAAAAOOQ/B8kauromDCo/s1600/AFg4.jpg">
Overall, a strong release, and stripping out seasonality mortgage demand appears to remain in a secular uptrend which has been in place since 2011.
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Housing construction boom still on track?
I put forward the view some time ago that residential building approvals would likely hit all-time record highs, driven on by rising dwelling prices over the past couple of years.
Although is is argued by some that supply is effectively strangled by planning restrictions and NIMBY-ism (to some extent, this obviously does play a part, particularly in established inner- and middle-ring suburbs), there has been another factor at play.
And that is, with high labour and construction costs in Australia combined with government charges, dwelling prices were simply not high enough to encourage developers to build.
The numbers are clear - if Sydney's apartment prices were to dip much below $550,000, construction will quickly dry up, even with today's lower financing costs.
In short, projects would not be sufficiently profitable for developers to build and there would be no adequate return on investment.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2013/images/sp-so-230413-graph8-small.gif" alt="Graph 8: Construction Costs">
It's that simple. Ask anyone who works for a major developer in a residential division and they will tell you the same thing.
Dwelling values were previously too low and price action not strong enough for developers to be interested, until recently.
Indeed, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens confirmed as much in a speech this morning.
However, with prices moving up, there is clearly no shortage of approvals being waved through now in Sydney, thus underscoring the point.
In some areas, every second block appears to be under construction, especially in a number of inner south suburbs where thousands upon thousand of apartments are due to come online.
After three months of softer data, most commentators had already called the end of the approvals boom.
Admittedly, things were looking a tad shaky, but at the end of the day monthly approvals data is always necessarily going to be all over the shop.
In the event, after three weak readings building approvals in May jumped by 9.9% month on month to be up 14.3% year on year:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OmJ3i3uomTc/U7UFvwEANpI/AAAAAAAAOPk/YFCx_BAwDfQ/s1600/a+approvals.jpg">
This data is always easier to read when smoothed out on a rolling monthly basis.
As you can see, rolling 12 monthly approvals are approaching the highest level ever recorded in Australia, now tracking at well over 190,000.
The previous annualised record was recorded in 1994 after the cash rate had been slashed from the nosebleed level of 17.5% to just 4.75%, resulting in higher prices and and a construction boom:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OmJ3i3uomTc/U7UFvwEANpI/AAAAAAAAOPk/YFCx_BAwDfQ/s1600/a+approvals.jpg">
The major driver in this cycle has been a big ~20% year on year uplift in apartment approvals, casting a lot of doubt over the sticky supply response theory.
In fact, apartment approvals are booming to new record highs:
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WdLE8tX-6IU/U7UH3Da_DEI/AAAAAAAAOQI/JhEwwZ3HirU/s1600/3+units.jpg">
New South Wales, a state with both a dwelling and an infrastructure deficit, has been leading the way with gusto in recent years:
 <img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9oOHSiKj9R8/U7UFveRjdOI/AAAAAAAAOPc/CbrADiFPzO0/s1600/4+NSW.jpg">
In NSW's case too, it's also been largely an apartment story, with nearly seven in every 10 approvals over the past year relating to unit and apartment stock in Sydney and the state-wide level of apartment approvals soaring:
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DiMTITiI9rE/U7UFvl0XoWI/AAAAAAAAOPg/68ayXXSzr38/s1600/5+NSW+apartments.jpg">
That said, it's notable that what started as a New South Wales and Western Australia boom is now becoming more broad-based.
Only in the Australian Capital Territory jurisdiction, where new supply is essentially not really needed, are building approvals not materially higher than a year ago.
In terms of the capital cities, approvals are generally very strong as detailed by RP Data's Cameron Kusher here:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d-JzbvPy290/U7UJMz1CTPI/AAAAAAAAOQc/lbcukkrH_hA/s1600/7RPD.jpg">
Source: RP Data, ABS.
"As you can see from the above chart, across each of the major capital cities there has been an upswing in dwelling approvals.
"The most significant upswing has occurred in Sydney and Brisbane however, the number of approvals remains much higher in Sydney and Melbourne than in all other cities.
"The number of dwellings approved for construction is at an all-time high currently in Perth, is very close to its record high in Sydney and at its highest level since the 12 months to June 2004 in Brisbane," wrote Kusher.
No signs of any constipated supply response there, rather the market just seems to be doing exactly what it should do, and the dwelling construction boom remains - albeit tentatively - still on track.
Acquirers of property, particularly buyers of units and apartments, must be wary of pockets of oversupply.
Great wall of foreign capital hits Sydney &amp; Melbourne
Some years ago when I wrote my first book, I noted that one day in the not too distant future, the Aussie dollar would depreciate again and certain parts of our property markets would likely be hit by a great wall of foreign capital.
It's all part of a global shift towards storing wealth in real estate which I discussed in more detail here, and which we have seen playing out in London over the past two decades with ever-widening eyes.
However, as I noted in my book, foreign buyers generally aren't interested in smaller cities and regional centres.
Instead, they will be predominantly interested in buying medium-density properties in the areas they are generally most familiar with - that is to say, inner Sydney and inner Melbourne.
Credit growth in Australia is only just rebounding from 40 year lows and yet prices are surging, with Sydney prices up by 15.4% in the last 12 months alone.
Well, that unprecedented great wall of foreign capital is now here.There has been a lot of debate about foreign buyers purchasing illegally, but even approved annualised spending is up by a whopping 93% to an annualised equivalent of more than $33 billion.
The always-excellent Chris Joye <a href="https://www.afr.com/f/free/blogs/christopher_joye/foreign_buyers_purchase_homes_to_VCVDT4m60HAlgpYbdGrCSL" target="_blank">highlighted in the AFR</a> how foreign buyers are buying up to 40% of newly constructed homes in Sydney and Melbourne (while simultaneously completely disregarding the southern states):
"Foreign investors are likely key drivers of the Sydney and Melbourne housing booms, according to new UBS data, potentially buying up to 40% of all newly constructed homes, and accounting for up to one in eight Australian sales overall.
"Unprecedented levels of foreign buyer activity, combined with the ability of the $559 billion self-managed super fund sector to leverage its cash five times when making property purchases, could be two reasons why this Australian housing cycle is different to anything we’ve seen before."
<img src="https://www.afr.com/r/AFR/Blogs/christopher_joye/201406/Images/housing414x727.png" width="227" height="400">
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Lucky 888 Visas take-off
An interest sub-plot which has not received much airtime in the mainstream media is that the controversial "Significant Investor Visas" are being issued overwhelmingly in New South Wales and Victoria too - 85% of them.
The investor "Golden Ticket" or "Lucky 888" visas (doubtless that subclass was chosen as they will be mainly issued to Chinese immigrants) require a minimum $5 million of investment in qualifying assets in exchange for a visa, and the rules allow them to be processed very rapidly.
Another 81 visas were issued in April and May taking the tally to date up to 255, but the big story is that another 928 applications for Golden Ticket visas have been lodged.
Tally all of that up and that's another $5 billion of investment coming overwhelmingly into the two major states, not to mention the additional wealth that the new visa holders will bring with them.
And this is doubtless only the beginning.
Canada recently shut down its equivalent visa scheme with there still being a staggering 59,000 shut out in the waiting lists, most of them wealthy Chinese.
Throw in all of that together with another new advent - SMSF lending for property investment - mixed in with record low interest rates, and I continue to see little prospect of dwindling prices in inner Sydney any time soon.
Yesterday's <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1May%202014?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> data revealed some very interesting trends.
The number of short-term visitors to Australian shores reached a new record high of 583,600 in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The first key point of note today, which has actually been quite evident to me, both in the capital city and up and down the coast, has been the very substantial increase in the number of Chinese visitors to Australian shores. 
It's long been argued by commentators that Australia will become a playground for wealthy Asians.
Not to say that all Chinese visitors are wealthy, of course! 
But what has certainly been the case that there has been a strong and increasing interest in Sydney and Melbourne for $5 million Significant Investor or "Golden Ticket" Visas, with nearly 1,000 applications reportedly now in the queue to be processed in addition to those already dished out (85% of which were issued in Victoria and New South Wales). 
The number of Chinese tourists in May alone hit 66,700 (+5.9% y/y) - which was 11.4% of the total visitors for the month - helping to pump the short-term visitor levels to new heights:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--gsHtO-E4vQ/U7oxWXGUQFI/AAAAAAAAOWE/fwePpA6uUPc/s1600/Arrivals1.jpg">
The number of long-term arrivals tailed back marginally to a shade under 760,000 on a rolling annual basis, from a peak level of close to 800,000:
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9D_5bScSZ-0/U7oxX-0yt2I/AAAAAAAAOWY/GWTByl0-Ykg/s1600/arrivals2.jpg">
After accounting for long-term and permanent departures, rolling annual net long term migration came in at just a little over 376,000 in May, which is also down from its most recent peak of approximately 408,000 a year ago:
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HsHrOAudybA/U7oxWUUc7_I/AAAAAAAAOV8/PALex_CKoOo/s1600/Arrivals3.jpg">
Australia's population growth is now accounted for by approximately 60% net long term migration and 40% natural increase. These figures appear to be commensurate with annual population growth tailing back from searing highs of well above 400,000 to slightly more moderate (although still undeniably strong) levels, perhaps somewhere in the 300,000s range in 2014.
 
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Asian century
The Permanent Movements - Settlers data series showed that significant numbers of today's migrants hail from countries such as the Phillipines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Malaysia. From the Middle East, Iraq was another surprisingly strong contributor, at least, to me. 
An interesting point of note is how the number of settlers from New Zealand, and in particular, the United Kingdom, have dropped off dramatically since peaking in January 2009 and February 2008 respectively on a rolling annual basis.
In Britain's case, I'm fairly certain from my own experience that this is in part due to dramatic shifts in the exchange rate caused by the respective fortunes of those economies, and therefore the relative cost of living for Poms in Australia, as I discussed in <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/currency" target="_blank">this timely post</a>.
For my money, the biggest news of today's data set is explained by the graph below:
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6pk7fLfq3Ok/U7oxWgrwrjI/AAAAAAAAOWA/EfOZeuorEq4/s1600/Arrivals4.jpg">
Note how permanent settlers from both China and India are now tracking at or close to record highs.
Incredibly, approximately one in every eight permanent settlers in Australia hails from China (12.3%), and nearly one in every seven from India (13.7%).
Unevenly spread
The above charts show how clearly Australia has increasingly embraced a "populate or perish" mentality in recent years, and this decade and the next are likely to be noteworthy for the dramatic impact of immigration from Asia.
It's worth noting here though how the population growth differs greatly by state and by region:
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KcPgnQY8UAk/U7oxXf3UhGI/AAAAAAAAOWc/-qaoiH6hynI/s1600/Arrivals5.jpg">
The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0" target="_blank">Australian Demographic Statistics</a> for the year to December 2013 showed how the New South Wales population increased by a thumping +110,300 in the 2013 calendar year, with the overwhelming majority of that taking place in Greater Sydney.
Many of the highest growth rates are being seen in the inner and middle-ring suburbs if the harbour city, placing a colossal strain on existing infrastructure and housing markets.
This population and labour market growth has occurred, and is occurring, at the expense of nearly every New South Wales regional centre where population growth rates below the national averages have been seen.
On the other hand, net absolute population growth in Tasmania, the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia remained fairly minimal in 2013:
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6EzgEBHbvTg/U7oxXrENM-I/AAAAAAAAOWU/_o0bgEAQNdE/s1600/Arrivals6.jpg">
Summary
Population growth in 2014 looks set to be driven more by China and India than ever before, as well as a number of other south-east Asian and far-east Asian countries. 
However, the absolute Australian population growth figure looks to have peaked for this cycle and perhaps may be closer to 300,000 than 400,000 in this calendar year. 
On the face of it this ongoing strong population growth is all great news for property investors.
However, some alarm bells are starting to ring in a number of areas as higher prices and lower interest rates are driving a glut of new supply in some regions.
In particular, certain parts of Melbourne and regional Victoria appear to have worryingly high vacancy rates, as do some parts of regional New South Wales and Queensland.
Moreover, there has been plenty of questinable advice over the last couple of years about investing for high yields in overpriced mining towns.
Yet in some mining locations we now we have the prospect of a potentially devastating trifecta of declining commodity prices, a crunching drop-off in mining construction and a jumping in unemployment in the resources sector.
Each to their own, but personally I'd be giving the one-trick mining towns a very wide berth.
You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.
His latest book is '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' .
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Lucky 888 Visas take-off and is the housing construction boom still on track?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Heightened competition among home lenders has prompted the banking regulator to issue a reminder of what constitutes prudent lending, but its suggestion that loans being generated by mortgage brokers should come in for scrutiny has not gone down well in some quarters.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) released a draft prudential practice guide on residential mortgage lending in May, with <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/mediareleases/pages/14_11.aspx" target="_blank">retiring chairman John Laker</a> saying that “in this environment, APRA is seeing increasing evidence of lending with higher risk characteristics and it does not want this trend to continue”.
Residential mortgages constitute the largest credit exposure in the Australian banking system and APRA has made it clear it wants to ensure prudential lending standards are maintained.
Lending standards apply to the loan origination process, the risk appraisal of the borrower and to the style of mortgage product – including standard mortgage loans, <a href="https://theconversation.com/reverse-mortgages-need-a-rethink-if-theyre-the-new-age-pension-26433" target="_blank">reverse mortgages</a>, home equity lines of credit and interest-only loans. APRA’s draft – which is still the subject of consultation – also provides guidance on hardship loans, “stress-testing” of loan exposures and on mortgage insurance.
The draft has triggered controversy among mortgage brokers, however, because the guidelines encourage banks to scrutinise loans that are originated by brokers. The Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia has questioned whether broker-originated loans are more risky than bank-originated ones.
Mortgage brokers generally assess the financial situation of borrowers, recommend mortgage loan products and lenders, and then manage the application process. It is common in Australia for banks to pay mortgage brokers upfront or ongoing fees for this “origination” of a loan.
Their remuneration is generally tied to the loan amount and is payable by the bank to the broker either upfront or over time. As a result, there could be an incentive for brokers to advise consumers to borrow a higher amount than they might need. Another common practice is for borrowers to be directed to interest-only loans, to be used in combination with a mortgage offset account.
As well as new loans, brokers also help consumers refinance existing mortgages often to purchase additional property. In this process, houses are revalued and consumers can take the opportunity to reduce their equity in a property – in effect, withdrawing cash.
Lenders are happy to originate loans at loan-to-value ratios of 80%, which implies equity funding of 20%. The risk of a mortgage loan decreases over time as the borrower builds up equity. Interest-only loans and loans made with the intention to cash out equity maintain the risk to the lending bank at a high level.
The recent global financial crisis has shown that real estate values and home loan defaults are closely related. Economic downturns can trigger house price devaluations and cause mortgage defaults.
Australian house prices have grown by double-digit percentages in recent years, and some people argue the property market is ripe for a correction. Some home owners would face negative equity if double-digit decreases were to occur and could have incentives to default on their loans. Such a scenario was realised in the US during the GFC, when there was a dramatic increase in default rates.
But the interests of brokers and banks are not necessarily aligned when it comes to the consideration of borrower risk. A broker may have a low incentive to consider risk if they are paid regardless of what happens to the loan in the future.
APRA says that “experience has shown that commissions paid upfront tend to encourage less rigorous attention to loan application quality”. Trailing commissions, which are paid over time, are on the other hand more likely to provide incentives for brokers to retain and monitor customers, it says.
APRA wants to encourage banks to link broker remuneration to mortgage delinquency risk.
There is limited academic research on the issue of whether broker-originated loans are more risky, partly because of the difficulty of accessing this information.
<a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00387" target="_blank">The research that is available</a> does confirm that broker-originated loans are more risky, but it also shows that about three-quarters of this additional risk can be explained by observable information such as higher loan to valuation ratios or lower credit scores.
In response, banks could charge higher risk borrowers an increased mortgage rate, or alternatively, reduce the remuneration it is prepared to pay the broker originating the higher risk loan.
<blockquote>
An economic shock affecting property prices or borrowers’ ability to repay could cause tremors in Australia’s financial system.
</blockquote>
This research is important because it highlights the need for a bank to include this sort of information on risk into its pricing, provisioning, capital and stress-testing calculations – something APRA aims to encourage with its guidance note. It is reasonable to include this cost differential in mortgage pricing and/or broker remuneration.
The current APRA initiative supports the resilience of the Australian financial system and are in line with actions by regulators in other countries, including the US. But more needs to be done.
Australian banks are exposed to mortgages to a larger degree than their international counterparts, with a high allocation to these loans versus other banking products. This means an economic shock affecting property prices or borrowers’ ability to repay could cause tremors in Australia’s financial system. We need to think of creative ways to limit the exposure of Australian lenders to mortgages.
This could occur, for example, by encouraging the internationalisation or diversification of bank assets, something that could be supported by further development of financial market instruments such as covered bonds, derivatives, insurance policies and asset securitisation.
Harry Scheule is associate professor of finance at the <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/" target="_blank">University of Technology, Sydney</a>. He is a regional director of the Global Association of Risk Professionals. His expertise is in the area of banking, financial risk measurement and management, insurance, mortgages, prudential regulation, securities evaluation and structured finance.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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To tackle risk, address how mortgage brokers are paid

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Stocktake sales have enticed Australian shoppers to open up their wallets after the May budget, with retail sales up 18.4% in the past two weeks.
While retail sales took a hit after the <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/federal-budget-2014/765-finance/41935-budget-2014-small-business-reacts-to-not-a-bad-budget" target="_blank">Abbott government’s first budget</a>, data from the Australian Retail Index shows the sector finished off the 2013-14 financial year on a strong note with 4.1% growth in June.
“After a slump in sales post the release of the federal budget, shoppers were quick to forget their concerns, and return with confidence,” said Simon Scalzo, national retail lead partner of BDO, one of the firms behind the Australian Retail Index.
Russell Zimmerman, executive director of the Australian Retailers Association, told SmartCompany he has seen a similar recovery in sales since the budget.
While Zimmerman says it is hard to say for sure which factors caused lower retail sales in May, he says it is fair to say “consumers kicked back” against the budget. Shoppers were also less likely to purchase winter goods in May due to unusually warm weather, he says.
“What we are hearing is that it has come good in the past few weeks and that is in part due to the return of the cold weather that retailers were looking for,” says Zimmerman.
“I think some consumers are also realising the budget was not as bad as they initially thought.”
“But I would caution it is not across the board,” he says. “Some retailers have said it hasn’t been as strong, including some SMEs and those in the hardware sector. Some have said it has been tough.”
Nevertheless, Zimmerman says the sector had “generally not a bad finish” to the end of the financial year, led by the department stores which appear to have benefited from their traditional mid-year stocktake sales.
While Zimmerman says stocktake sales might not be as popular as they were 20 years ago, he says they “absolutely” still make a difference to the country’s retailers.
“People still believe in the stocktake sale. It’s the same with Boxing Day,” says Zimmerman.
The Australian Retail Index, which was <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/marketing/sales/41642-new-retail-sales-index-to-give-shop-owners-daily-data" target="_blank">launched in April</a>, also tracks fluctuations across different retail categories, including furniture and homewares, fashion and accessories, sporting goods and other general retail.
Scalzo says the furniture and homewares category proved the most stable throughout the 2013-14 financial year, while fashion and accessories and other general retail proved the most volatile.
But while the retail sector appears to be well-placed heading into the new financial year, Scalzo says retailers should brace themselves for the winter months.
“If history is anything to go by, retailers should expect activity to be short-lived over the remaining cooler months, with historic consumer confidence showing a dip in sales between August and October,” says Scalzo.
<img src="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/images/retail%20story%20graph%20070714.jpg" width="548" height="463">
Source: Australian Retail Index
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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Retail sector finishes financial year on a high: Spend recovers after budget slump

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GUEST OBSERVATION
What are the risks in the economic outlook for Australia?
Typically, prognosticators take a scenario-based (aka “story-telling”) approach to answering this sort of question. And usually these scenarios end up as a litany of woes about what the future holds (such as weak productivity growth, unfunded fiscal liabilities, and highly unfavourable demographic trends).
But for most economists gathering at the Joint Econometric Society Australasian and Australian Conference of Economists Meeting in Hobart this week, the more natural approach to answering this question is to consider formal econometric analysis of the macroeconomic data.
Without going into the gory details of how to do this, I want to provide a sense of what such analysis says about the short-run and long-run risks in the economic outlook for Australia.
I consider two key indicators of economic activity: output growth and inflation. The short-run risks are captured by statistical distributions for these indicators, while the long-run risks relate to possible changes in these distributions.
Short-Run Risks for Australian Output Growth
The graph below plots output growth for Australia and the United States.
Click to open in new window:
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/51838/area14mp/xrcxbypn-1403487244.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/51838/width668/xrcxbypn-1403487244.jpg" alt=""></a>
Source: James Morley
It’s clear from the graph that output growth for both countries has been much less volatile since the mid-1980s. Economists, who like to label everything as “Great” (e.g., the “Great Depression” and the “Great Recession”), refer to this stabilization as the “Great Moderation”.
Even a casual glance at the graph makes it clear that the Great Moderation was not a myth, as has been asserted by some commentators, but is very real. Yes, the US economy had large negative growth rates in 2008. But since then, output growth has been stable, if lacklustre. Australian output growth also remained stable throughout this period.
The reasons behind the Great Moderation are highly contested. But at least a couple of leading explanations suggest it should persist in the future. The most compelling explanation is that the economy now faces “smaller shocks” due, in part, to a changing structure towards services and away from manufacturing (although the reduced volatility occurs within services and manufacturing, not just due to their shifting importance).
Also, monetary policy likely played some role by stabilising inflation, leading to fewer movements along the “Phillips curve” (i.e., the short-run link between inflation and output). Note, however, that US output growth remained stable after the global financial crisis, despite the US Federal Reserve facing a “zero lower bound” constraint on interest rates. So a paramount role for monetary policy in stabilising output growth is doubtful.
Consistent with the visual impression in the graph above, formal tests suggest the statistical distribution for Australian output growth has remained fixed since the mid-1980s. Based on this distribution, the short-run outlook has real GDP growing at a 3% annualised rate, with a standard deviation of 1.5 percentage points for year-on-year growth summarising the risk in this prediction. In words, output growth could well be 1.5% or 4.5%, but there is a low probability that it will be less than 0% or greater than 6%.
Notably, a major recession along the lines of what happened to the United States in the global crisis is extremely unlikely based on this distribution, although other statistical modelling suggests the probability of some sort of recession for Australia is less remote, but still small, at close to 15% over the next two years.
Short-Run Risks for Australian Inflation
The graph below plots inflation for Australia and the United States.
Click to open in new window:
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/51839/area14mp/kc5x29v5-1403487244.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/51839/width668/kc5x29v5-1403487244.jpg" alt=""></a>
Source: James Morley
This graph shows that Australian inflation has been lower and less volatile since the early 1990s, especially in comparison to the 1970s. This pattern of stabilisation roughly mirrors that of US inflation, also plotted in the graph, although the timing is a bit later in Australia.
The stabilisation of US inflation in the early 1980s coincides with major changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy at the time, while a link to monetary policy for Australia is strongly supported by the anchoring of inflation expectations (such as the measure also reported in the inflation graph based on the difference between yields for 10-year nominal and real Australian government bonds) at the start of the inflation-targeting era in the early 1990s.
Consistent with the visual impression in the inflation graph and similar to output growth, formal tests suggest a fixed statistical distribution for Australian inflation in recent years, albeit since the early 1990s only when inflation targeting was put in place.
Based on this distribution, the short-run outlook has inflation at a 2.5% annualised rate (exactly the midpoint of the RBA’s target range), with a standard deviation of 1.3 percentage points for year-on-year inflation summarising the risk in this prediction. In words, the headline inflation rate could well be 1% or 4%, but it is unlikely that it will be much more extreme than that.
A major recession might push Australian interest rates to the zero lower bound, along the lines of what has happened in Japan, the United States, and Europe. However, if the RBA were to follow similar unconventional policies to those conducted by the Federal Reserve in recent years, the US experience suggests that inflation volatility should remain contained.
Long-Run Risks for the Australian Economy
The main long-run risks for the Australian economy are that the statistical distributions of output growth and inflation could change in some fundamental way, as they have in the past.
Given the reasons for the past changes discussed above, it seems unlikely that output growth and inflation will return to their pre-Great Moderation patterns. A downside of this is that long-run output growth now appears to be lower than it was in the 1960s and 1970s. Furthermore, there is always a risk that long-run output growth could fall further.
It is notable that the average growth rate for the Australian economy was as high as 5% in the 1960s when worldwide productivity growth was high, but has only been 2.8% over the last decade. At the same time, average growth has been reasonably steady since the mid-1980s. So an imminent end to economic growth, as might be suggested by the most dire scenario-based analysis, is quite unlikely.
The key point is that to really understand the risks in the economic outlook, it is important to step back from a story-telling approach, no matter how compelling, and take an objective look at the data. Doing so provides some encouraging bounds on the likely risks for the Australian economy.
James Morley is professor of economics and associate dean (research) at <a href="https://www.asb.unsw.edu.au/" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australian School of Business</a>.
Professor James Morley will present an assessment of risks in the outlook for the Australian economy for the “Chief Economists Session” at the Joint Econometric Society Australasian and Australian Conference of Economists Meeting in Hobart on 1-4 July. James Morley receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Understanding the risks to the Australian economy through data

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The song at this stage of the residential property cycle would normally sound something like this:
"Higher prices and price growth, coupled with lower rental returns in both Sydney and Melbourne will see more people move interstate to cheaper and sunnier South East Queensland.”
Well, that doesn’t seem to be happening. The more optimistic would end this sentence, with a ‘yet’.  But I wonder. Yes, investors are crossing the Tweed and the current level investor interest from the southern states reminds me of the early 2000s, but unlike back then, net interstate migration to Queensland still remains low, close to an all-time low in fact.  See our first chart below.
Our second chart shows that Victoria – yes, that old rust bucket – attracts more interstate action than Queensland these days.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7443" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-1.jpg" alt="NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION #1"></a>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7444" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-2.jpg" alt="NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION #2"></a>
So why are fewer people moving to Queensland?
<ul>
<li>Jobs</li>
</ul>
Most people move interstate for work.  Sure, many might like Queensland’s climate better, especially during winter/spring, but their primary motivation is work. 
Queensland is creating new jobs, but these aren’t really big paying positions, nor are that many full-time. 
It is more than just post-mining influence at work here; the overall ‘casualisation of work’ trend is having an impact.
<ul>
<li>Ageing demographics</li>
</ul>
As people age, they move less and when they move, they don’t move as far as they did when they were younger.They like to stay in the same neighbourhood if they can.  
Yes, they like to be closer to the kids and especially the grandchildren, but given the low cost of air travel, plus the vitality of our older folk (my parents are almost always travelling), they don’t see themselves as ‘baby sitters’ these days.
<ul>
<li>Stamp duties</li>
</ul>
One of the biggest killers of housing movements is stamp duties.  This cost – determined as a percentage of the end price – stops many local moves and a lot of interstate movements as well.
It should be a flat fee; the same for all residential property transactions regardless of location and be say, $1,000 per sale, and not the exorbitant amount that is currently incurred.
If you want free up our larger, underutilised homes and get downsizers/retirees into something more practical for them, then stamp duties must be reduced and dramatically so. 
Otherwise, these two market segments (which are about to grow <a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/2014/06/03/housings-future/">substantially</a> in size) will age in place; and we will struggle to house, affordably, our younger generations.
<ul>
<li>Perception</li>
</ul>
I don’t care how many times the media try to project Brisbane/South East Queensland as having lost its “red neck” and somehow acquired, magically, a sophisticated aura; most of my interstate friends and relatives don’t buy it, nor do I.  I think we need to really think through what we are and the image we want to convey.  We shouldn’t be competing with Sydney, Melbourne or Perth; we need to find our own voice.
For example, I was in Toowoomba last week giving a presentation for the Chamber of Commerce, where a short promotional video was played outlining why someone should consider living in the Darling Downs.  It wasn’t “resources” this or “infrastructure” that, it was a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMQ9dPn7IA4&amp;feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">great clip</a> about a bushie and how he lived under a “big sky”.  It worked a treat – so much so that I nearly bought a Toowoomba house.
Anyway, for mine, Queensland needs to work on its image.  It seems lost if you ask me…and it is reducing the number of bums of seats.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
<a href="https://matusik.com.au/products/toowoomba-market-outlook-report/" target="_blank">Go here</a> for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Toowoomba.
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michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Why are fewer people moving to Queensland?

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The last financial year surprised many with strong economic results. 
Despite concern around the Australian economy’s dependence on the mining industry, shares, bonds and property have all done well over the last 12 months. Interest rates remain at record lows and the economy continues to grow. 
As businesses are now <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/42593-a-guide-for-small-business-the-legal-changes-you-need-to-know-about-for-the-new-financial-year" target="_blank">planning for the new financial year</a>, we take a look back on the highs and lows of the past year and asks experts what to expect for the year ahead.
Sharemarket
Chief economist for the NAB, Alan Oster, told SmartCompany he expects the sharemarket to continue to perform well after finishing the year up about 12%.
“Basically the economy behaved as expected, maybe a touch stronger,” he says.
“It’s all about export versus domestic demand, which is still quite weak.”
He is tipping another “moderate” 10% increase in the sharemarket for the year ahead. 
Consumer confidence
Consumer confidence <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/growth/economy/42155-consumer-confidence-hits-gfc-lows-450-jobs-to-go-at-qantas-midday-roundup" target="_blank">took a hit after the budget in May</a> but Warren Hogan, chief economist at ANZ, says it is “slowly coming back in recent weeks”.
“The overall economy has been pretty good given the challenges we face and a lot of uncertainty still hanging around after the financial crisis,” he says.
Looking to the next financial year, Hogan says there is still “a lot of uncertainty” about how much traction the non-mining recovery will get in Australia.
“We are still watching that closely, all the signs are that it should happen. If we get a broader lift in non-mining business investment and the job creation associated with that it could be a very strong year for Australia.”
Property
Australia’s strong economy has received a big boost from new home building, according to Harley Dale, chief economist of the Housing Industry Association.
“We saw a recovery in new residential construction over the course of the year and that generated demand in parts of the retail manufacturing and supply distribution sectors that you wouldn’t have seen in the economy without that new home building recovery,” he says.
But Dale warns new home building can’t on its own successfully transition the Australian economy away from mining related investment towards more domestic-focused activity.
“The year ahead is another strong one for new home building, we appear to be on track to build the second highest number of new homes on record and hopefully maintain historically high levels of new residential construction in 2015 as well,” Dale says.    
Interest rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia has <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold-for-july">held firm on interest rates again today</a> and experts predict this approach will continue over the next 12 months.
“We believe interest rates will remain on hold until the middle of 2015 with a slight chance of a further interest rate reduction this core cycle,” Dale says.
Similarly, Hogan says “interest rates are unlikely to do anything”.
“The consensus is for a modest increase next year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see interest rates in the same place,” he says.
Dollar
The fate of the Aussie dollar is “one of the uncertainties” hanging over Australia’s economy for the next financial year, according to Hogan.  
“At the moment it is a little bit high compared to the underlying fundamentals,” he says.
Hogan says he would like to see the Aussie dollar come down over the next six to 12 months to the mid 80c mark, which would help the economy.
“One of the risk factors for the year ahead is that the dollar will go up because the rest of the world is in such poor shape that capital finds its way to Australia and pushes the dollar up,”
However, Oster predicts currency will only drift down to “90c maybe a bit below”. 
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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cwaters-YrtBR88nBe

The end of financial year: Experts tip strong year ahead

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GUEST OBSERVATION
"We are in the coal business. If you want decent hospitals, schools and police on the beat we all need to understand that." – <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/unesco-slams-great-barrier-reef-management-youve-got-eight-months-to-fix-it/story-e6frfkw0-1226381188474" target="_blank">Queensland Premier Campbell Newman, June 2012</a>.
It was a rare moment of unscripted truth in Australian politics, which summed up decades of national policy.
The Premier was responding to United Nations report on the health of the Great Barrier Reef, warning that it could be listed as a World Heritage site <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/danger/" target="_blank">“in danger”</a> unless Australia stepped up its protection of the reef, particularly from increased port development. (The World Heritage Committee is due to discuss it again at a meeting <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-courting-danger-with-the-great-barrier-reef-20411" target="_blank">in June this year</a>.)
Newman was not just articulating Liberal National Party policy; keeping Australia in the coal business has also been core to Labor’s economic policy for many decades, going back to the “no regrets” approach of <a href="https://apo.org.au/commentary/our-lost-history-climate-change" target="_blank">the Hawke/Keating years</a>.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/43769/area14mp/pdr4v67g-1394673302.jpg">
Australia has massive coal resources, as this 2012 map shows. <a class="source" href="/news" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Geoscience Australia</a>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CC BY</a>
It’s not hard to see why the bipartisan consensus on coal persists. Coal is the <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/tradematters/qld" target="_blank">biggest export earner for Queensland</a> and <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/tradematters/nsw" target="_blank">New South Wales</a>, and our second biggest nationally, worth <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/trade/trade-at-a-glance-2013/trade_performance_at_a_glance/part03_australias_trade_and_economic_statistics" target="_blank">A$41 billion in 2012</a>.
So here’s the surprising part. Over the past year, Newman has been asking Queenslanders to come up with a 30-year vision for the state, “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM1rYlhjGVg" target="_blank">beyond politics, and beyond the next 10 elections</a>. It will be a genuine reflection of our collective aspirations for the future.”
Nearly 80,000 people have had their say – and in the draft plan currently under review by the state government, coal doesn’t rate a mention.
By the people, for the people
The Queensland government’s <a href="https://queenslandplan.qld.gov.au/">Queensland Plan</a> is significant because it’s among the most extensive public consultation processes ever undertaken by an Australian or state government. A leading American planning consultant and adviser to the Premier, <a href="https://www.nxtconsulting.com/team">Steven Ames</a>, describes the effort being made to hear views from across the state as a “virtuous circle”:
"Bottom line, the more engaged the public, and the more aware the government of public perceptions, the more effective and long-lasting outcomes that can be expected." – Ames, correspondence with the author.
Launched early last year, there have been major summits in Mackay and Brisbane, dozens of workshops and <a href="https://queenslandplan.qld.gov.au/journey/">hundreds of meetings across the state</a>, as well as online surveys and discussions, all feeding into a <a href="https://queenslandplan.qld.gov.au/journey/public-review-working-draft/assets/qld-plan-working-draft.pdf">draft 30-year plan</a>. The final plan will be <a href="https://queenslandplan.qld.gov.au/next-steps/">released in mid-2014</a>.
Subtitled “Our working draft created by Queenslanders, for Queensland”, the <a href="https://queenslandplan.qld.gov.au/journey/public-review-working-draft/assets/qld-plan-working-draft.pdf">44-page draft plan</a> distills all that community consultation into nine key subjects: education, community, regions, economy, health and well-being, environment, people, infrastructure, and governance.
More thorough than any public opinion poll, the draft Queensland Plan shows that Queenslanders want regional development and livable communities, but importantly they want these to be innovative, sustainable, and supportive of emerging industries.
Surprisingly, “coal” is nowhere to be found in the draft Queensland Plan. Instead, people have expressed a clear preference for developing agriculture, ecotourism, education, research and development, and alternative energy.
Among the top 35 goals outlined are that “We protect the environment” and “We invest in and adopt sustainable and renewable solutions”. Asked “What does success look like?” in achieving that latter goal, Queenslanders have said “Renewable energy will be the norm.”
An animated summary of the draft Queensland Plan and what Queenslanders say they want.
Article continues on next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Envisaging a different future
For so many people from such a coal-reliant state to envisage a generational shift away from coal is remarkable.
<img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/43771/area14mp/8f84wdp6-1394673904.jpg">
Coal mines operating in Queensland (shown in red) and coal deposits (shown in yellow). Map created using interactive tools on 13 March 2014. <a class="source" href="https://www.australianminesatlas.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Australian Mines Atlas</a>, <a class="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CC BY</a>
But it mirrors some other shifts in public sentiment and behaviour, in which ordinary Australians have moved ahead of politicians – sometimes catching federal and state governments off-guard.
Even a few years ago, who would have confidently predicted the recent trends in rooftop solar power? Certainly not major power companies like AGL, which have <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/massive-losses-hit-energyaustralia-as-demand-falls-solar-soars-67443" target="_blank">reported hits to their profits</a> as more Australians try to control their rising power bills by going solar. Between March 2011 and the end of 2013, the proportion of Australian homes with solar panels more than doubled <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/three-million-sleep-under-solar-rooftops/story-e6frg90f-1226852425006" target="_blank">from 7.5% in March 2011 to 16%</a>, representing more than 3 million people.
However, imagining a future without significant coal export revenues will be harder for political leaders from both major parties.
For instance, even while the Gillard government was introducing a carbon tax, it went to great lengths to reassure its heartland about the future for coal, with Climate Change Minister <a href="https://www.climatechange.gov.au/ministers/hon-greg-combet-am-mp/media-release/gillard-government-supports-coal-mining-jobs" target="_blank">Greg Combet declaring in 2011</a>: “I can assure coal miners that their industry has a bright future under a carbon price.”
Will politicians listen?
Campbell Newman has shown himself to be a commendably unorthodox political leader in conceiving and championing such an inclusive, forward-thinking process as the Queensland Plan.
Campbell Newman invites Queenslanders to have their say on the state’s future.
So now the question is whether both sides of politics will heed the sentiment so strongly articulated in this bold 30-year community vision for Australia’s leading coal state.
Ultimately, it is a vision that neither the Liberal National Party nor Labor can ignore.
The alternative, as the people have rightly identified, leaves us dependent on the hope that Asia’s major coal consumers will never clean up their own industries. It’s <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/stranded-assets/Stranded%20Down%20Under%20Report.pdf">a risky strategy</a>, as <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/iea-casts-doubt-future-queensland-mega-coal-mines-51236">more analysts</a> are warning, particularly as our region’s economic powerhouse and main Australian market, China, has announced its own <a href="https://www.bna.com/china-outlines-environmental-n17179882762/">“war on pollution”</a> – much of it generated by burning coal.
John Cole is executive director, Institute for Resilient Regions at University of Southern Queensland.
John Cole is a member of the finance management committee of the Queensland Trust For Nature, a not-for-profit organisation that buys private property to protect at-risk ecosystems and secures management solutions through commercial contracts on privately-owned land. He was a delegate at the Queensland Plan Brisbane summit in November 2013, participated in a recent online "webjam" as an expert on balancing environmental protection and economic development, and remains actively involved in the Queensland Plan process. However, all opinions in this article are his.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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