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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
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Joel Robinson

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

Economy

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AMP Capital's head of investment strategy and chief economist Shane Oliver says the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still hasn't ruled out macroprudential policy to curb investor spending.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/529479747701460992" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2014/11/05/tweet-nov-5-one.jpg" alt=""></a>
Looking at <a href="/expert-insights/finance/dwelling-prices-continue-to-climb-governor-glenn-stevens-november-statement">yesterday's statement</a> from Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens, Oliver noted Stevens still made a point of the level of investor activity in Australia's housing market.
In his statement, Stevens said: "Investors continue to look for higher returns in response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth is moderate overall, but with a further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets. Dwelling prices have continued to rise."
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, investment housing commitments rose by 0.9% in August while owner occupier housing commitments fell by 0.1%.
Oliver says the RBA may yet implement macroprudential policies, which would see stricter regulation for lending.
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Macroprudential measures possible: Tweet of the day

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Time for an abridged gallop to sum up what's going on in Aussie housing markets.
Interest rates and inflation
First up, I have believed for some time that due to rising unemployment and inadequate jobs growth interest rates may need to fall further, which will in turn continue to support demand for housing. A recent Bloomberg survey of economists found that not a single one of them agreed with me on that point, however slowly but surely they are falling back into line.
Wages growth nationally remains sluggish at 2.6%, and, with evident slack in the labour market, non-tradables inflation has been declining as recorded in the chart below.
Although we haven't had an official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) inflation reading since last month, the monthly TD-MI gauge is easing back towards the bottom of the 2% to 3% target band.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH14br-tradeinf-small.gif" alt="">
If this is followed by something similar in the official quarterly consumer price index that would leave the door wide open for another interest rate cut in 2015.
Note how futures markets now concur that there is more than a sporting chance of a rate cut in the first six months of 2015, and effectively zero chance of a hike.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH2.gif" alt="">
Demand: population growth
Our analysis of the latest quarter's population growth revealed our expected rotation away from the mining states with population growth slowing significantly in Queensland and Western Australia, but exploding higher in financials and services-focused New South Wales to nearly +115,000 over the year. And how:
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH3.jpg" alt="">
The long term trend in our chart below continues to show that almost all of the material growth in population takes place in only the four main states.
One of several challenges facing South Australia in particular is a brain drain, a demographic scourge involving the best and brightest heading to Sydney and Melbourne which becomes evident through analysis of the net migration sub-indices.
To date, this net interstate migration from South Australia has been countered by net overseas immigration. But this will only work effectively and sustainably for the state if new jobs are created, which has not been happening for the past half decade, hence rising levels of unemployment. Something needs to change in this regard.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH4.jpg" alt="">
South Australia may rise to and overcome this challenge, I merely note the risks facing the local economy here, which seldom seem to be mentioned elsewhere.
Demand: jobs growth
The Labour Force survey is presently suffering from a major credibility deficit and has led to the ABS to be something of a figure of fun over recent months (harsh, given recurring budget cuts) with the apparent largest jobs 'gain' in history followed next month by a total reversal.
As a long term buy-and-hold investor I would always advise following the longer term trend anyway, but this is even more so now the case given that the seasonal monthly data has been proven to be so wildly volatile.
The data below underscores the point about the problem child that is the South Australian economy, with close to zero jobs having been created on a net basis for nearly five years.
The strongest economy for the past two years, as discussed here frequently, has been that of New South Wales, while the mining states are now transitioning from construction to production.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH5.jpg" alt="">
Below the long term growth in employment chart shows New South Wales to be in relatively good shape, but the southern states – and now to a lesser extent the mining states – struggling.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH6.jpg" alt="">
But perhaps the real story in the jobs market is the alarming gulf in fortunes being experienced between the prospering capital cities such as Sydney and Melbourne and the simultaneous hollowing out of the respective regional economies, as I explored here.
The total number of full-time employed in the regions of the main states now sits below 2006 levels, and this casualisation of the workforce may have surprisingly harsh negative impacts for regional housing markets in the decades ahead.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Demand: housing finance
The August Housing Finance data showed a slight decline on the preceding month, leading to a predictable knee-jerk response from commentators, but monthly data rarely rises (or falls) in a straight line and the trend in housing finance still looks to be strong overall.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH7.jpg" alt="">
The owner occupier housing finance data may have revealed the first signs of weakness in some states, but saw Queenslander financing looking particularly strong. Good times are ahead in Brisbane in 2015, it appears, after a lengthy wait.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH8ROLLING.jpg" alt="">
Last week the ABS Lending Finance data was also released, which details where investors are buying. It's a clear cut Sydney boom which we anticipated long ago.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH94c%20inv%20loans.jpg" alt="">
Supply: building 
Rather than regurgitate our extensive chart packs, just a few takeaway points here on dwelling supply.
At this stage of the property cycle plenty of new supply should be coming online, rental growth should be easing and property investors need to be wary of areas with a looming oversupply of dwellings.
Melbourne and Victoria continue to approve thousand of houses for construction, as has been the case for more than a decade.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH10.jpg" alt="">
However, it is actually apartments which generally represent the greater oversupply risk in this cycle.
Note that after an approvals boom, we now see Sydney approvals and construction rolling over and the risk of oversupply easing back, except in a few specific suburbs.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH11.jpg" alt="">
Apartments commenced are picking up very strongly in Queensland.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH12.jpg" alt="">
The apartments completed chart below underscores a key point – New South Wales has completed a meagre 17,500 units (as well as 19,100 houses) in the year to June 2014, which compares to state population growth of somewhere approaching 115,000 across the same time horizon.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH13.jpg" alt="">
The raw numbers should tell you straight away that the risk of a massive Sydney oversupply in aggregate is tenuous unless approvals and construction get a second wind, with the Greater Sydney population set to leap higher by almost 90,000 heads in only one year.
It is true that there is plenty more to come in the pipeline - Greater Sydney has approved just over 26,500 units in the year to August 2014, but this uptrend has already peaked some six months previously on a rolling annual basis, and is set to ease back to around 20,000 in due course.
House approvals also have risen very steadily in Greater Sydney to above 12,500 on a rolling annual basis, but even if 100 percent of these approvals in the pipeline make it through to commencement and then completion (which they won't) there is no pressing risk of a huge oversupply at this juncture.
Melbourne on the other hand already has a clear oversupply problem in existence in some inner locations, while the commencements data also shows that inner Brisbane is steadily getting around to constructing thousands of apartments.
Investors in attached Brisbane dwellings should steer away from those city locations with an oversupply risk and in particular purchase only properties with a point of scarcity (e.g. great outlook/river view/exceptional location).
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Supply: stock and vacancies
Penultimately, Melbourne has absolutely stacks of stock on the market, about double that of Sydney, with an unprecedented 1800 Melbourne auctions coming right up on Cox Plate weekend. This will likely slow the market. Sydney has the opposite problem with a dearth of stock on the market while demand remains strong.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH14.jpg" alt="">
When markets move into the increasing supply phase vacancy rates should eventually rise, and this has happened to some extent in Melbourne and Perth with vacancy rates up at 2.5% on a city-wide basis. Perth investors should look for well-located houses over units and apartments, in our opinion.
Meanwhile Brisbane and Canberra have vacancy rates sitting around the national average of 2.2% on SQM Research's measures.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH15.jpg" alt="">
For all the expert talk of a Sydney oversupply, the harbour city's vacancy rate slipped back to just 1.7% in August.
Meanwhile, in further proof that real estate markets do cycle, the years of flat markets, lack of price gains and therefore moribund levels of dwelling construction in Adelaide and Hobart has resulted in low vacancy rates, and these markets could in turn pick up a little as a result.
Although I used to live in Darwin I haven't been up that way lately, so will just note here that there are just a few worrying indicators in the "Top End", with sliding prices, rising stock on market, signs of quite rapidly rising vacancy rates and a resources boom which is threatening to roll over.
The Darwin property boom may risk follow the mining boom back down from whence it came, so watch this space.
Dwelling prices
By this time of year most of the year's property market predictions have normally been conveniently forgotten about or subtly amended. Not ours! Let's see what we got right and what we didn't.
Our Adelaide 2014 market forecast was +0% to +3% capital growth, and RP Data's index has a year to date gain of 3.39% with a couple of months still to run.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/16.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane and Gold Coast tracking nicely for our +2% to +5% capital growth prediction. Brisbane has some of the best prospects for 2015 and beyond after a lean half decade.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH17.jpg" alt="">
Melbourne looks set to do better than the top end of our +5% gain forecast, though from a macro perspective it does now seem likely that the market is set to slow up, with whispers afoot of the much-vaunted "buyers market" returning.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph%2018.jpg" alt="">
The Perth market is holding up OK, and notably houses are faring much better than apartments on most indices. Our forecast is on track.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph19.jpg" alt="">
The Sydney market has been rock solid and will finish 2014 ahead of our +6% to +9% capital growth forecast.
SQM Research believes that the Sydney market will replicate this capital growth once again with another 8% to 12% growth in the year ahead too. We'll release our own 2015 forecasts in due course as well as our 2015 <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">Buyers Eye</a> housing market outlook reports for London, Sydney and Brisbane.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph20.jpg" alt="">
Overall we could yet score a hit with our forecasts on all five markets, but the Melbourne data needs to start slowing for that to be the case, which it just never quite seems to do.
Watch out for sliding unit rents at this stage in the cycle as new supply comes online. Owners of properties with a unique appeal, in an outstanding location or with a key element of scarcity value will of course have few problems with rental vacancies in 2015, but lower quality stock in other locations could see asking rents getting dropped or have issues securing tenants.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Australia's macro markets: the numbers you should know

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GUEST OBSERVATION
In our opinion, the single biggest driver of property markets is employment.
Australia was once renowned for its farming and ‘making stuff’. In 1985-86, agriculture and manufacturing represented 8.1% and 12.2% of total employment respectively in Queensland, whereas these industries now only represent 2.4% and 7.7% of all jobs.
Mining is a major revenue generator for government and business coffers, although it is not a big direct employer. Mining jobs have grown from 1.9% to 3.4% since 1985-86.
The biggest employers are tourism (419,100 Queenslanders are currently employed in retail trade and accommodation), health care (282,600), construction (230,700), manufacturing (178,500), and education (176,400).
The industries with the biggest employment growth since 1985-86 are health care (from 8.0% to 12.1%) and white collar professional services (3.8% to 7.1%).
Casting our mind to Australia’s core assets and the role which this country plays in the Asian Century, we believe that the industries with the largest potential for employment growth are:
<ul>
<li>Tourism (retail trade and accommodation)</li>
<li>Education (international students)</li>
<li>Construction (hotels, apartments, infrastructure, resorts, ports)</li>
<li>Health care (our aging population)</li>
</ul>
Australian towns and cities which have a strong presence in these industry sectors will have increasingly high demand for accommodation.
Specific to the state of Queensland, locations with these industry drivers include: 
<table style="width: 460px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Tourism
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Education
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Construction
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Health Care
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Townsville
Sunshine Coast
Cairns
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Townsville
Cairns
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Sunshine Coast
Cairns
Gladstone
Toowoomba
Mackay
Rockhampton
Ipswich
Logan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Sunshine Coast
Ipswich
 
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014).
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spressley-sBoeMhannA

The Queensland locations with the largest potential for employment growth

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The unemployment rate is one of the most closely followed macroeconomic indicators.
Of importance in its own right, it tells us about the level of spare capacity in the economy and provides information about likely future developments in inflation.
Recent fluctuations in the unemployment rate have surprised many economists. In July, the unemployment rate jumped by 0.3 percentage points to 6.4% – its highest level in twelve years – only to be unwound in the August release.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59385/area14mp/gndjq2sw-1411017659.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59385/width668/gndjq2sw-1411017659.png" alt=""></a> ABS
The sharp increase in July may partially reflect measurement issues - the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) updated the criteria to be actively searching for a position, although the ABS said the impact of this change was not significant.
The unwinding of this spike in unemployment in August was due to a surge of part-time employment – in fact the largest growth rate since the mid-1980s. The increase was so large that the ABS extensively checked the figures. However, the lift in part-time employment was evident in many dimensions of the data – it occurred both across the country (with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory) and across many age groups.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59386/area14mp/c33bsqdg-1411017876.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59386/width668/c33bsqdg-1411017876.png" alt=""></a> ABS
Amidst this considerable volatility, it is probably best to focus on estimates of the “trend” unemployment rate, which is also advocated by the ABS. The trend measure effectively smooths the data, down-weighting the recent observations.
However, trend estimates aren’t perfect – for example, as more data become available they can be revised. Also, by down-weighting the recent data they can miss turning points which policymakers might have otherwise wanted to react to in a timely manner. Bearing these caveats in mind, the trend unemployment rate in recent months has moved higher.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59387/area14mp/cc8z98s6-1411018041.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59387/width668/cc8z98s6-1411018041.png" alt=""></a> ABS
At around 6%, the trend unemployment rate suggests that slack exists in the labour market. Similarly, the trend participation rate – the ratio of people in the labour force (either employed or unemployed) to the population – recently has picked up, but remains below the levels of the late-2000s.
Structural issues
While as discussed in a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-ag-160614">Christopher Kent</a> part of the decline in the participation rate probably can be explained by structural factors, such as the ageing of the population, a component is likely to be cyclical.
Recent <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2014/sep/pdf/bu-0914-2.pdf">Reserve Bank of Australia</a> model-based estimates also suggest that spare capacity currently exists in the labour market, but much less than occurred during the early-1990s recession. The Reserve Bank study also highlights the considerable uncertainty which surrounds these estimates.
The unemployment rate is a narrow measure of labour market slack – it abstracts both from people working fewer hours than they would like, or in a position that does not fully utilise their skills. The ABS tackles the first aspect in its measure of labour force underutilisation. As it is a broader measure, the labour underutilisation rate is always greater than the unemployment rate, although the wedge between them widened in the early 1990s recession.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59390/area14mp/nzfpfzym-1411018671.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59390/width668/nzfpfzym-1411018671.png" alt=""></a> ABS
We’re getting more ‘flexible’
This wedge widened with the onset of the global financial crisis, unwinding some narrowing in it which had occurred. An important part of the macroeconomic adjustment that occurred in Australia during the GFC was a reduction in average hours worked. This mitigated the rise in the unemployment rate and probably was facilitated by the more flexible nature of the labour market today relative to in the past.
The increase in the labour underutilisation rate over the past eighteen months has outpaced that in the unemployment rate. In the September quarter it exceeded the levels reached during the GFC, although it remains well below the high levels reached during the severe early-1990s recession.
The rise in labour underutilisation has not been uniform across all parts of the labour market. While typically labour underutilisation is much higher for those aged 15-24 compared to those 25 and above, and it increases sharply during either recessions or slowdowns, recently it has risen noticeably.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59392/area14mp/qf49y4bk-1411019346.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59392/width668/qf49y4bk-1411019346.png" alt=""></a> ABS
The unemployment rate and the labour underutilisation measures show slack exists in the labour market, but much less than in the early 1990s. This slack is likely to hold down wages growth.
Private sector wages growth over the year to the June quarter was the lowest rate since the measure preferred by policymakers was introduced in the late 1990s. As wages, together with productivity, are the key factors which influence domestically-based inflationary pressures, these are likely to remain contained in the near term.
Tim Robinson is a research fellow at the Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne<a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne"></a>.
Tim Robinson is on extended leave without pay from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The views expressed in this article are his own.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

What's really happening with the unemployment rate?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A “yes” vote to Scottish independence today would mean a great many things for Scotland, and also for England. But what would it mean for Australian business and financial markets?
It’s tempting to say “very little” — what do internal politics half a globe away have to do with us? Yet the Australian dollar strengthened markedly against the pound last week, almost surely due to a poll suggesting that the “yes” vote was ahead 47-45%.
To begin to understand what Scottish independence might do to Australian firms and markets it’s important to understand what it would do to Scotland and England. The key economic question here is what currency the Scots would use.
The pro-independence “team” has been pretty clear about this. They’ll keep using the pound. And it’s true that England can’t stop them — just as Australia can’t stop New Zealand from using the Aussie dollar.
At first this sounds sensible — the pound is a big, liquid currency. The Haggis — or whatever a Scottish currency would be called — would not be. Case closed, right?
Actually, no. Having a common currency without economic and political integration is a very, very dangerous thing. Monetary policy would be set by the Bank of England, presumably without reference to Scottish economic conditions. So if there was a recession in Scotland one would want lower interest rates, but unless England was also in recession of a similar magnitude the Bank of England would be unlikely to cut rates.
Worse, losing control of the ability to print money means that if Scottish debt got out of control it could not be inflated away. Ask Spain how that works out.
The risk for banks
Worse still, Scottish banks would no longer be implicitly guaranteed by England. This is a huge deal.
The events of 2008 taught us how quickly modern-day bank runs can happen, how devastating the effects can be, and how only overwhelming credibility can prevent disaster. Scotland wouldn’t have that — and England would have no incentive to help out. Even if England wanted to, markets would have to believe it, and that’s far from a sure thing.
So it’s clear Scotland would be in a dangerous economic position — not obviously in trouble right away, but without any macroeconomic fire extinguishers if trouble arises.
This is a potential worry for major Australian exporters to Scotland — but there just aren’t very many of those. Australian companies with operations in Scotland could be affected.
A notable example is National Australia Bank, whose subsidiary Clydesdale Bank is located in Scotland and could face higher borrowing costs under independence. NAB has said it would seek to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-12/nab-clydesdale-bank-plans-to-leave-independent-scotland/5738822" target="_blank">shift</a> Clydesdale bank’s corporate registration to England in the event of a “yes” vote. But even in that case it’s a small part of the NAB.
The bigger concern would be if independence affects England in a significant way, since this is a bigger trading partner for Australia. As we saw last week, markets have rightly been concerned about the impact on England. At the very least there would be an 18-month plus process of “demerging” two countries, a process that would be complicated and distracting.
Keep calm
Yet, whatever the impact on England, it’s hard to see how it would materially impact Australian business. The pound might weaken relative to the Australian dollar, potentially hurting Australian exporters. Having said that, we would all do well to heed former treasury secretary Ken Henry’s advice on Tuesday to be less focused on the real exchange rate in this country. The impact of a modest devaluation of the pound just won’t make much difference.
Could independence lead to a major blow-up of the English economy? As we learnt in 2008, a major problem in any significant economy can quickly reverberate around the world. We are all interconnected now. A big problem in England could be a big problem for world financial markets, Australia’s among them.
This is possible, but it seems highly unlikely. England is a very large economy with its own currency and a broad web of international economic connections. Scotland is close, historic, and important – but independence is not likely to lead to an economic meltdown in England.
Perhaps it could change politics in England in a big way and this could have an effect. Perhaps a more conservative Tory leader would emerge. And perhaps that would lead to different economic policies. But that’s a lot of perhapses.
Demerging two countries would be wrenching. It would affect those countries — especially Scotland — in lots of ways, including economically.
Whatever the pros of a “yes” vote for Scotland, it would bring with it huge economic risks. And some for England, too. For Australia and Australian businesses, the risk is small.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/31724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Richard Holden is professor of economics at <a href="https://www.asb.unsw.edu.au/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">UNSW Australia Business School</a>.
<h5> </h5>
Richard Holden is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. 
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Independence day? What a Scottish ‘yes’ vote would mean for Australian markets

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Some surprising set of news last week as the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Aug%202014?OpenDocument" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Labour Force</a> data showed total employment leaping by an outlandish 121,000 in the month of August, the greatest net gain in the history of the data series which runs all the way back to 1978.
Most of the gains were of the part-time nature, reported full-time employment increased by 14,300 and part-time employment by 106,700.
Of course, the data represents only a survey and therefore the results are necessarily volatile and should not be taken too literally. The huge variance against expectations will do little to enhance the credibility of the survey's accuracy. 
In particular, the huge boost in part-time employment seems likely to be largely a result of sample rotation.
Nevertheless, such a large gain in employment must be reflective of at least some good news in the economy.
Total employment jumps
The total employment gain was welcome news after a weak result last time around.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mrUDmv8-6LA/VBFRgqPGO5I/AAAAAAAAPro/oo15o57A8KU/s1600/1.jpg"> 
Over the past year total employment has increased by 128,000 for females and 111,000 for males.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-moissCZGpvc/VBFRgi66JgI/AAAAAAAAPr8/OVCxMMeB5C8/s1600/2.jpg"> 
Zooming in the total employed chart to a five year time frame shows what a truly anomalous result the August gain was - a monster uplift in reported total employment.
Clearly the monthly data is noisy but the economy must be doing something right for total employment to continue its right to the highest level in Australia's history at more than 11.7 million.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-14IjNw0pFBw/VBFRg7s9OdI/AAAAAAAAPrs/AjYeEghJPR8/s1600/3.jpg">
Total employment by state
More interestingly, what is happening at the state level?
The month of August showed the New South Wales economy to be leading the way with a hefty gain in total employment (+45,000) albeit with the majority of that fueled by part-time employment gains.
Queensland (+27,000), Victoria (+26,000), South Australia (+17,000), Western Australia (+10,000) and Tasmania (+4,000) also each benefited to a greater or lesser extent in the month (question marks over the integrity of the data notwithstanding).
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GN3Spx7s4uQ/VBFRhimgcMI/AAAAAAAAPr0/hwSoPu1G1tU/s1600/4.jpg">
The cumulative jobs added by state chart below is very much a three horse race, with New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland leading the way, although over the past four years the momentum is all with Sydney.
South Australia and Tasmania (which I haven't charted here) have lagged badly for the past half decade although the August data proved to be reasonably good in both cases.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MhkqMBWv83A/VBFRithdlQI/AAAAAAAAPsE/KbZu1n5prdY/s1600/5.jpg"> 
Sydney's economy currently stands to benefit from a major construction boom. Of course, as the boom is largely of the residential property nature, property owners would be wise to keep a watchful eye on oversupply risk.
Our latest data shows that on a city-wide basis the Sydney market remains relatively tight with a vacancy rate of only 1.8% which is well under the national and capital city average of 2.3%. Certain inner west and Canterbury-Bankstown suburbs have vacancy rates which are far lower again at below 1.5%.
However, there are some areas we do highlight as having significant oversupply potential, particularly for new apartment stock around the Central Business District, the inner south and surrounding some of the Urban Activation Precincts (UAPs). 
Caveat emptor.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Unemployment rate by state 
Commentators reserved much of their scorn for the unemployment rate by state which continues to leap around in manic-depressive fashion. The national unemployment rate month dived from 6.4% to 6.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis, reversed much of the previous month's spike.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GOXOvAT7sZ4/VBFRjkKTHHI/AAAAAAAAPsQ/2vC2IJ1GxP0/s1600/6.jpg"> 
This month threw out some particularly wild unemployment rate changes at the state level, but users of the data would be wise to observe the trend rather than the noise, which remains up, albeit on a somewhat shallower basis than previously implied.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V990bDN0pLA/VBFRj4qFHNI/AAAAAAAAPsU/PZRIr7H_oBo/s1600/7.jpg"> 
The August data showed unemployment rate falls across the board with Western Australia (5.0%) and New South Wales (5.7%) recording the lowest rates.
The data recorded some enormous falls in August with South Australia and Tasmania in particular seeing a colossal drop in their respective unemployment rates despite an overall increase in the participation rate.
Lovely to see but most commentators will be unlikely to suspend their disbelief based upon one month of noise.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PD8ceVilwFQ/VBFRkhOf-GI/AAAAAAAAPsg/wQw-kOPjzmY/s1600/8.jpg">
Summary and property market implications
A literally unbelievably good boost in total employment must at least mask some positive news in the wider economy, but of course we would want to see any trend confirmed over time rather than becoming too aroused by one rogue print.
Cash rate futures and currency markets responded with further interest rate cuts now totally priced out of the yield curve.
With monetary policy settings at the current level we of course have expected to see dwelling prices rising across Australia but there remain serious question marks as to how sustainable gains in this cycle can be in most cities and regions.
Sydney and Melbourne have been boosted by an apparent explosion in demand from offshore funds.
Commentators for some time have reported that Sydney's cycle is over with investor demand being pulled forward. What they failed to account for is that equity gains create new deposits, and we are seeing plenty of evidence of refinancing in order to clamber aboard the Sydney property bandwagon at the present time.
On the other hand, there will be no such explosion in demand elsewhere and hence no equivalent property boom, and this was backed up further by today's Labour Force report. Total employment has been trending down in the Northern Territory for the past five months while the 2014 employment data flowing out of Canberra has proved to be flatter than a gander's arch. The August employment data for South Australia and Tasmania was reasonably positive but the five year charts look dire. Meanwhile, Western Australia appears to be holding up reasonably well but is clearly a state in transition from mining construction to production.  Overall this property cycle possibly has a little way to run yet, but gains outside Sydney are likely to be relatively disappointing as compared to the property booms of Christmases past.
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What does the 'unbelievable' boost in employment mean for the property market?

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Numbeo’s cost of living statistics for cities across the world provides an interesting comparison point for Australian cities.
Ranked by the rent index, Sydney soars to the top of the list as the most expensive. However, when ranked by the consumer price plus rent index, Darwin takes the lead. In fact, Perth, Sydney and Darwin fight for spaces on the Consumer Price Index most expensive (not including rent).
Here are the statistics to know:
<table style="width: 460px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="88">
 
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="80">
Rent Index
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="223">
Consumer Price plus Rent Index
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Darwin
</td>
<td width="80">
75.99
</td>
<td width="223">
102.53
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Sydney
</td>
<td width="80">
83.08
</td>
<td width="223">
100.73
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Perth
</td>
<td width="80">
70.31
</td>
<td width="223">
99.43
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Melbourne
</td>
<td width="80">
59.37
</td>
<td width="223">
87.84
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Canberra
</td>
<td width="80">
63.17
</td>
<td width="223">
87.48
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Brisbane
</td>
<td width="80">
59.93
</td>
<td width="223">
87.02
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Newcastle
</td>
<td width="80">
56.59
</td>
<td width="223">
82.01
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Hobart
</td>
<td width="80">
49.67
</td>
<td width="223">
80.19
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Adelaide
</td>
<td width="80">
45.26
</td>
<td width="223">
79.43
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Gold Coast
</td>
<td width="80">
49.05
</td>
<td width="223">
79.17
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Wollongong
</td>
<td width="80">
48.33
</td>
<td width="223">
79.13
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Cairns
</td>
<td width="80">
41.08
</td>
<td width="223">
74.25
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 Source: Numbeo
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Cost of living v rent: How do the states compare?

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Economic wellbeing declined during the second quarter of 2014, with preservation of lifestyle becoming the chief concern of 47% of those surveyed, according to ING DIRECT’s Household Financial Wellbeing Index.
The five top concerns
<ol>
<li>Maintaining current lifestyle (47%, but increased to 56% for baby boomers)</li>
<li>Managing new costs from Federal Budget (45%)</li>
<li>Meeting large on-off costs, e.g. home renovations or car maintenance (31%)</li>
<li>Job stability (25%, but up to 40% of Gen Y households)</li>
<li>Increasing debt (18%, but totalling 25% of Gen Y households)</li>
</ol>
Source: ING DIRECT
This has led to the financial ambitions of Australians surveyed being larger about reducing spending and holding onto funds. A total of 44% wanted to save more, with 63% of Gen Y putting this as their priority.
Reducing the cost of living (41% overall, 50% of baby boomers), cutting back on discretionary spending (32%), getting a better paying job (18% overall, 30% of Gen Y) and earning more by working longer hours (10% overall, 20% of Gen Y) were the top finance ambitions.
The trend towards maintaining, rather than improving, lifestyle came as a worry to ING DIRECT executive director of customer John Arnott, who noted that costs are rising faster than incomes.
“On the plus side, households are taking responsible steps to preserve and even improve their financial wellbeing, with many looking at ways to actively cut costs rather than relying on increased debt, which can lead to greater financial pain further down the track,” said Arnott.
The Household Financial Wellbeing Index measures sentiment across debt, income, investments, savings and ability to meet household bills.
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Australians' top five financial concerns: ING

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One of the best pieces of advice I've received as a property investor is to "follow the jobs growth".
Australia is in the midst of a significant structural shift towards knowledge and services based industries and the data shows that increasingly jobs growth, population growth and economic output is flowing to the centre of our major capitals.
With just over 60% of Australia's population located in the five largest capital cities it might seem reasonable to expect that around 60% of jobs created would be in those five largest capital cities too.
However, this is nowhere near being the case as this week's <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6291.0.55.001" target="_blank">Detailed Labour Force</a> data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed.
Over the years our analysis shows that jobs growth has been much stronger in the five largest capital cities at well over 70% of the total for their respective states.
And over the past five years, of the jobs growth in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, some 77.4% of the jobs added have been in the capital cities, with only regional Queensland contributing significantly.
Not only is there a structural shift afoot in favour of capital cities and centralisation, our analysis of the data below shows that the trend is actually now accelerating.
Full-time employment growth
Looking at full-time jobs growth over the long-term we can see that while regional New South Wales has added jobs until relatively recently, the overwhelming majority of employment growth has been in the capital cities:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dt8z9s3UOG4/U_B05mGAQMI/AAAAAAAAPQ4/9Tm5vYiGNrM/s1600/a.jpg">
In the other states we expect to see something similar playing out, with one exception: Queensland.
Queensland is home to some large and growing conurbations outside Brisbane including Gold Coast/Tweed Heads, Sunshine Coast, Cairns, Toowoomba and Townsville, for example, and as such the rest of state figures for Queensland have tracked relatively strongly. Not so elsewhere...
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1tKh0E-aoNw/U_B07TRQUcI/AAAAAAAAPRU/_i04FRUITmA/s1600/b.jpg">
Total employment growth 
In recent times many jobs added are not of the full-time variety and therefore we have run the same charts for total employment growth over the long run. Note that regional Victoria has added more part-time jobs, but still it is the capital cities which overwhelmingly lead the way.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uHIgsX1gC1g/U_B03-q19FI/AAAAAAAAPQo/p3i7sUidN8E/s1600/1.jpg"> 
And it's a similar story in the other states. 
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AxBZkLXhp2k/U_B04C2vmyI/AAAAAAAAPQk/YJCm3-l5Buo/s1600/2.jpg"> 
These figures are sometimes easier to interpret in a column chart, and here the evidence in favour of Australia's increasing dependence upon its capital cities for total employment growth and prosperity is compelling (click chart):
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GpnmuqCiJ3c/U_B04DvW1aI/AAAAAAAAPQg/bsf_ncP_K1M/s1600/3.jpg"> 
We note that jobs growth in regional Australia has stalled, and with the mining construction boom transitioning into the production phase, this trend is likely to become worse rather than better.
Unemployment
Finally, we note that employment growth is not yet occurring fast enough in this cycle to offset population growth in the capital cities and thus the trend in unemployment is up.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d5ufWNhUMmM/U_B05okGE_I/AAAAAAAAPRA/yXtI3XyDhvM/s1600/5.jpg"> 
Our analysis of population growth in the 'rest of state' regional areas over recent years has shown the growth in regional population to be comparatively weak, and therefore unemployment should not be rising. However, regional jobs growth in Australia has almost totally stalled and the the recent unemployment trend is therefore still up in most cases. 
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d5ufWNhUMmM/U_B05okGE_I/AAAAAAAAPRA/yXtI3XyDhvM/s1600/5.jpg">
In short, the capital cities are increasingly becoming the job and population growth magnets, and as the data continues to show, this is becoming more and more so the case as the years progress.
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Structural shift towards capital city employment accelerates

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According to a new nationwide survey, 46% of Australians have been forced to reduce their spending on "essential" items.
The independent consumer body CHOICE reports that renters are the hardest hit, with 45% of renters reporting that they are struggling to get by on their current income, compared to 27% of mortgage holders. Low-income households and parents with school-aged children also reported financial hardship.
Of the 1,001 survey respondents, 31% said they were finding it difficult to get by on their current income, with 11% finding it "very difficult". Only 18% said they were "living comfortably", with 5% responding that they were living "very comfortably".
CHOICE chief executive Alan Kirkland says one in every five respondents reported they have relied on credit cards or borrowing from friends or family to cope until payday.
"This reveals some striking concerns with cost-of-living, which is perhaps not surprising at a time when inflation is outstripping sluggish wages growth, retail sales are fragile and the political debate remains focused on household expenses,” says Kirkland.
Government cutbacks were a major concern for consumers, with 72% worried about government spending cuts. Kirkland calling public spending reductions "the major consumer worry".
Major household concerns include electricity bills, fuel and food and groceries. The survey, which saw 52% of respondents claiming they were "very worried" about electricity prices, was conducted before the repeal of the carbon tax.
“With such a drawn-out debate over the carbon tax it is not surprising to see electricity at the top of the list, although clearly prices have been driven by a number of factors, including rising infrastructure costs,” says Kirkland.
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