Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Economy

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AMP Capital's head of investment strategy and chief economist Shane Oliver says the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still hasn't ruled out macroprudential policy to curb investor spending.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/529479747701460992" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2014/11/05/tweet-nov-5-one.jpg" alt=""></a>
Looking at <a href="/expert-insights/finance/dwelling-prices-continue-to-climb-governor-glenn-stevens-november-statement">yesterday's statement</a> from Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens, Oliver noted Stevens still made a point of the level of investor activity in Australia's housing market.
In his statement, Stevens said: "Investors continue to look for higher returns in response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth is moderate overall, but with a further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets. Dwelling prices have continued to rise."
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, investment housing commitments rose by 0.9% in August while owner occupier housing commitments fell by 0.1%.
Oliver says the RBA may yet implement macroprudential policies, which would see stricter regulation for lending.
</body></html>

jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Macroprudential measures possible: Tweet of the day

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Time for an abridged gallop to sum up what's going on in Aussie housing markets.
Interest rates and inflation
First up, I have believed for some time that due to rising unemployment and inadequate jobs growth interest rates may need to fall further, which will in turn continue to support demand for housing. A recent Bloomberg survey of economists found that not a single one of them agreed with me on that point, however slowly but surely they are falling back into line.
Wages growth nationally remains sluggish at 2.6%, and, with evident slack in the labour market, non-tradables inflation has been declining as recorded in the chart below.
Although we haven't had an official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) inflation reading since last month, the monthly TD-MI gauge is easing back towards the bottom of the 2% to 3% target band.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH14br-tradeinf-small.gif" alt="">
If this is followed by something similar in the official quarterly consumer price index that would leave the door wide open for another interest rate cut in 2015.
Note how futures markets now concur that there is more than a sporting chance of a rate cut in the first six months of 2015, and effectively zero chance of a hike.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH2.gif" alt="">
Demand: population growth
Our analysis of the latest quarter's population growth revealed our expected rotation away from the mining states with population growth slowing significantly in Queensland and Western Australia, but exploding higher in financials and services-focused New South Wales to nearly +115,000 over the year. And how:
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH3.jpg" alt="">
The long term trend in our chart below continues to show that almost all of the material growth in population takes place in only the four main states.
One of several challenges facing South Australia in particular is a brain drain, a demographic scourge involving the best and brightest heading to Sydney and Melbourne which becomes evident through analysis of the net migration sub-indices.
To date, this net interstate migration from South Australia has been countered by net overseas immigration. But this will only work effectively and sustainably for the state if new jobs are created, which has not been happening for the past half decade, hence rising levels of unemployment. Something needs to change in this regard.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH4.jpg" alt="">
South Australia may rise to and overcome this challenge, I merely note the risks facing the local economy here, which seldom seem to be mentioned elsewhere.
Demand: jobs growth
The Labour Force survey is presently suffering from a major credibility deficit and has led to the ABS to be something of a figure of fun over recent months (harsh, given recurring budget cuts) with the apparent largest jobs 'gain' in history followed next month by a total reversal.
As a long term buy-and-hold investor I would always advise following the longer term trend anyway, but this is even more so now the case given that the seasonal monthly data has been proven to be so wildly volatile.
The data below underscores the point about the problem child that is the South Australian economy, with close to zero jobs having been created on a net basis for nearly five years.
The strongest economy for the past two years, as discussed here frequently, has been that of New South Wales, while the mining states are now transitioning from construction to production.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH5.jpg" alt="">
Below the long term growth in employment chart shows New South Wales to be in relatively good shape, but the southern states – and now to a lesser extent the mining states – struggling.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH6.jpg" alt="">
But perhaps the real story in the jobs market is the alarming gulf in fortunes being experienced between the prospering capital cities such as Sydney and Melbourne and the simultaneous hollowing out of the respective regional economies, as I explored here.
The total number of full-time employed in the regions of the main states now sits below 2006 levels, and this casualisation of the workforce may have surprisingly harsh negative impacts for regional housing markets in the decades ahead.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Demand: housing finance
The August Housing Finance data showed a slight decline on the preceding month, leading to a predictable knee-jerk response from commentators, but monthly data rarely rises (or falls) in a straight line and the trend in housing finance still looks to be strong overall.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH7.jpg" alt="">
The owner occupier housing finance data may have revealed the first signs of weakness in some states, but saw Queenslander financing looking particularly strong. Good times are ahead in Brisbane in 2015, it appears, after a lengthy wait.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH8ROLLING.jpg" alt="">
Last week the ABS Lending Finance data was also released, which details where investors are buying. It's a clear cut Sydney boom which we anticipated long ago.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH94c%20inv%20loans.jpg" alt="">
Supply: building 
Rather than regurgitate our extensive chart packs, just a few takeaway points here on dwelling supply.
At this stage of the property cycle plenty of new supply should be coming online, rental growth should be easing and property investors need to be wary of areas with a looming oversupply of dwellings.
Melbourne and Victoria continue to approve thousand of houses for construction, as has been the case for more than a decade.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH10.jpg" alt="">
However, it is actually apartments which generally represent the greater oversupply risk in this cycle.
Note that after an approvals boom, we now see Sydney approvals and construction rolling over and the risk of oversupply easing back, except in a few specific suburbs.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH11.jpg" alt="">
Apartments commenced are picking up very strongly in Queensland.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH12.jpg" alt="">
The apartments completed chart below underscores a key point – New South Wales has completed a meagre 17,500 units (as well as 19,100 houses) in the year to June 2014, which compares to state population growth of somewhere approaching 115,000 across the same time horizon.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH13.jpg" alt="">
The raw numbers should tell you straight away that the risk of a massive Sydney oversupply in aggregate is tenuous unless approvals and construction get a second wind, with the Greater Sydney population set to leap higher by almost 90,000 heads in only one year.
It is true that there is plenty more to come in the pipeline - Greater Sydney has approved just over 26,500 units in the year to August 2014, but this uptrend has already peaked some six months previously on a rolling annual basis, and is set to ease back to around 20,000 in due course.
House approvals also have risen very steadily in Greater Sydney to above 12,500 on a rolling annual basis, but even if 100 percent of these approvals in the pipeline make it through to commencement and then completion (which they won't) there is no pressing risk of a huge oversupply at this juncture.
Melbourne on the other hand already has a clear oversupply problem in existence in some inner locations, while the commencements data also shows that inner Brisbane is steadily getting around to constructing thousands of apartments.
Investors in attached Brisbane dwellings should steer away from those city locations with an oversupply risk and in particular purchase only properties with a point of scarcity (e.g. great outlook/river view/exceptional location).
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Supply: stock and vacancies
Penultimately, Melbourne has absolutely stacks of stock on the market, about double that of Sydney, with an unprecedented 1800 Melbourne auctions coming right up on Cox Plate weekend. This will likely slow the market. Sydney has the opposite problem with a dearth of stock on the market while demand remains strong.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH14.jpg" alt="">
When markets move into the increasing supply phase vacancy rates should eventually rise, and this has happened to some extent in Melbourne and Perth with vacancy rates up at 2.5% on a city-wide basis. Perth investors should look for well-located houses over units and apartments, in our opinion.
Meanwhile Brisbane and Canberra have vacancy rates sitting around the national average of 2.2% on SQM Research's measures.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH15.jpg" alt="">
For all the expert talk of a Sydney oversupply, the harbour city's vacancy rate slipped back to just 1.7% in August.
Meanwhile, in further proof that real estate markets do cycle, the years of flat markets, lack of price gains and therefore moribund levels of dwelling construction in Adelaide and Hobart has resulted in low vacancy rates, and these markets could in turn pick up a little as a result.
Although I used to live in Darwin I haven't been up that way lately, so will just note here that there are just a few worrying indicators in the "Top End", with sliding prices, rising stock on market, signs of quite rapidly rising vacancy rates and a resources boom which is threatening to roll over.
The Darwin property boom may risk follow the mining boom back down from whence it came, so watch this space.
Dwelling prices
By this time of year most of the year's property market predictions have normally been conveniently forgotten about or subtly amended. Not ours! Let's see what we got right and what we didn't.
Our Adelaide 2014 market forecast was +0% to +3% capital growth, and RP Data's index has a year to date gain of 3.39% with a couple of months still to run.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/16.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane and Gold Coast tracking nicely for our +2% to +5% capital growth prediction. Brisbane has some of the best prospects for 2015 and beyond after a lean half decade.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH17.jpg" alt="">
Melbourne looks set to do better than the top end of our +5% gain forecast, though from a macro perspective it does now seem likely that the market is set to slow up, with whispers afoot of the much-vaunted "buyers market" returning.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph%2018.jpg" alt="">
The Perth market is holding up OK, and notably houses are faring much better than apartments on most indices. Our forecast is on track.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph19.jpg" alt="">
The Sydney market has been rock solid and will finish 2014 ahead of our +6% to +9% capital growth forecast.
SQM Research believes that the Sydney market will replicate this capital growth once again with another 8% to 12% growth in the year ahead too. We'll release our own 2015 forecasts in due course as well as our 2015 <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">Buyers Eye</a> housing market outlook reports for London, Sydney and Brisbane.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph20.jpg" alt="">
Overall we could yet score a hit with our forecasts on all five markets, but the Melbourne data needs to start slowing for that to be the case, which it just never quite seems to do.
Watch out for sliding unit rents at this stage in the cycle as new supply comes online. Owners of properties with a unique appeal, in an outstanding location or with a key element of scarcity value will of course have few problems with rental vacancies in 2015, but lower quality stock in other locations could see asking rents getting dropped or have issues securing tenants.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Australia's macro markets: the numbers you should know

<html><body><div class="WordSection1">
GUEST OBSERVATION
In our opinion, the single biggest driver of property markets is employment.
Australia was once renowned for its farming and ‘making stuff’. In 1985-86, agriculture and manufacturing represented 8.1% and 12.2% of total employment respectively in Queensland, whereas these industries now only represent 2.4% and 7.7% of all jobs.
Mining is a major revenue generator for government and business coffers, although it is not a big direct employer. Mining jobs have grown from 1.9% to 3.4% since 1985-86.
The biggest employers are tourism (419,100 Queenslanders are currently employed in retail trade and accommodation), health care (282,600), construction (230,700), manufacturing (178,500), and education (176,400).
The industries with the biggest employment growth since 1985-86 are health care (from 8.0% to 12.1%) and white collar professional services (3.8% to 7.1%).
Casting our mind to Australia’s core assets and the role which this country plays in the Asian Century, we believe that the industries with the largest potential for employment growth are:
<ul>
<li>Tourism (retail trade and accommodation)</li>
<li>Education (international students)</li>
<li>Construction (hotels, apartments, infrastructure, resorts, ports)</li>
<li>Health care (our aging population)</li>
</ul>
Australian towns and cities which have a strong presence in these industry sectors will have increasingly high demand for accommodation.
Specific to the state of Queensland, locations with these industry drivers include: 
<table style="width: 460px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Tourism
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Education
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Construction
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Health Care
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Townsville
Sunshine Coast
Cairns
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Townsville
Cairns
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Sunshine Coast
Cairns
Gladstone
Toowoomba
Mackay
Rockhampton
Ipswich
Logan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="188">
Brisbane
Sunshine Coast
Ipswich
 
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014).
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spressley-sBoeMhannA

The Queensland locations with the largest potential for employment growth

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The unemployment rate is one of the most closely followed macroeconomic indicators.
Of importance in its own right, it tells us about the level of spare capacity in the economy and provides information about likely future developments in inflation.
Recent fluctuations in the unemployment rate have surprised many economists. In July, the unemployment rate jumped by 0.3 percentage points to 6.4% – its highest level in twelve years – only to be unwound in the August release.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59385/area14mp/gndjq2sw-1411017659.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59385/width668/gndjq2sw-1411017659.png" alt=""></a> ABS
The sharp increase in July may partially reflect measurement issues - the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) updated the criteria to be actively searching for a position, although the ABS said the impact of this change was not significant.
The unwinding of this spike in unemployment in August was due to a surge of part-time employment – in fact the largest growth rate since the mid-1980s. The increase was so large that the ABS extensively checked the figures. However, the lift in part-time employment was evident in many dimensions of the data – it occurred both across the country (with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory) and across many age groups.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59386/area14mp/c33bsqdg-1411017876.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59386/width668/c33bsqdg-1411017876.png" alt=""></a> ABS
Amidst this considerable volatility, it is probably best to focus on estimates of the “trend” unemployment rate, which is also advocated by the ABS. The trend measure effectively smooths the data, down-weighting the recent observations.
However, trend estimates aren’t perfect – for example, as more data become available they can be revised. Also, by down-weighting the recent data they can miss turning points which policymakers might have otherwise wanted to react to in a timely manner. Bearing these caveats in mind, the trend unemployment rate in recent months has moved higher.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59387/area14mp/cc8z98s6-1411018041.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59387/width668/cc8z98s6-1411018041.png" alt=""></a> ABS
At around 6%, the trend unemployment rate suggests that slack exists in the labour market. Similarly, the trend participation rate – the ratio of people in the labour force (either employed or unemployed) to the population – recently has picked up, but remains below the levels of the late-2000s.
Structural issues
While as discussed in a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-ag-160614">Christopher Kent</a> part of the decline in the participation rate probably can be explained by structural factors, such as the ageing of the population, a component is likely to be cyclical.
Recent <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2014/sep/pdf/bu-0914-2.pdf">Reserve Bank of Australia</a> model-based estimates also suggest that spare capacity currently exists in the labour market, but much less than occurred during the early-1990s recession. The Reserve Bank study also highlights the considerable uncertainty which surrounds these estimates.
The unemployment rate is a narrow measure of labour market slack – it abstracts both from people working fewer hours than they would like, or in a position that does not fully utilise their skills. The ABS tackles the first aspect in its measure of labour force underutilisation. As it is a broader measure, the labour underutilisation rate is always greater than the unemployment rate, although the wedge between them widened in the early 1990s recession.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59390/area14mp/nzfpfzym-1411018671.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59390/width668/nzfpfzym-1411018671.png" alt=""></a> ABS
We’re getting more ‘flexible’
This wedge widened with the onset of the global financial crisis, unwinding some narrowing in it which had occurred. An important part of the macroeconomic adjustment that occurred in Australia during the GFC was a reduction in average hours worked. This mitigated the rise in the unemployment rate and probably was facilitated by the more flexible nature of the labour market today relative to in the past.
The increase in the labour underutilisation rate over the past eighteen months has outpaced that in the unemployment rate. In the September quarter it exceeded the levels reached during the GFC, although it remains well below the high levels reached during the severe early-1990s recession.
The rise in labour underutilisation has not been uniform across all parts of the labour market. While typically labour underutilisation is much higher for those aged 15-24 compared to those 25 and above, and it increases sharply during either recessions or slowdowns, recently it has risen noticeably.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59392/area14mp/qf49y4bk-1411019346.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/59392/width668/qf49y4bk-1411019346.png" alt=""></a> ABS
The unemployment rate and the labour underutilisation measures show slack exists in the labour market, but much less than in the early 1990s. This slack is likely to hold down wages growth.
Private sector wages growth over the year to the June quarter was the lowest rate since the measure preferred by policymakers was introduced in the late 1990s. As wages, together with productivity, are the key factors which influence domestically-based inflationary pressures, these are likely to remain contained in the near term.
Tim Robinson is a research fellow at the Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne<a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne"></a>.
Tim Robinson is on extended leave without pay from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The views expressed in this article are his own.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

What's really happening with the unemployment rate?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A “yes” vote to Scottish independence today would mean a great many things for Scotland, and also for England. But what would it mean for Australian business and financial markets?
It’s tempting to say “very little” — what do internal politics half a globe away have to do with us? Yet the Australian dollar strengthened markedly against the pound last week, almost surely due to a poll suggesting that the “yes” vote was ahead 47-45%.
To begin to understand what Scottish independence might do to Australian firms and markets it’s important to understand what it would do to Scotland and England. The key economic question here is what currency the Scots would use.
The pro-independence “team” has been pretty clear about this. They’ll keep using the pound. And it’s true that England can’t stop them — just as Australia can’t stop New Zealand from using the Aussie dollar.
At first this sounds sensible — the pound is a big, liquid currency. The Haggis — or whatever a Scottish currency would be called — would not be. Case closed, right?
Actually, no. Having a common currency without economic and political integration is a very, very dangerous thing. Monetary policy would be set by the Bank of England, presumably without reference to Scottish economic conditions. So if there was a recession in Scotland one would want lower interest rates, but unless England was also in recession of a similar magnitude the Bank of England would be unlikely to cut rates.
Worse, losing control of the ability to print money means that if Scottish debt got out of control it could not be inflated away. Ask Spain how that works out.
The risk for banks
Worse still, Scottish banks would no longer be implicitly guaranteed by England. This is a huge deal.
The events of 2008 taught us how quickly modern-day bank runs can happen, how devastating the effects can be, and how only overwhelming credibility can prevent disaster. Scotland wouldn’t have that — and England would have no incentive to help out. Even if England wanted to, markets would have to believe it, and that’s far from a sure thing.
So it’s clear Scotland would be in a dangerous economic position — not obviously in trouble right away, but without any macroeconomic fire extinguishers if trouble arises.
This is a potential worry for major Australian exporters to Scotland — but there just aren’t very many of those. Australian companies with operations in Scotland could be affected.
A notable example is National Australia Bank, whose subsidiary Clydesdale Bank is located in Scotland and could face higher borrowing costs under independence. NAB has said it would seek to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-12/nab-clydesdale-bank-plans-to-leave-independent-scotland/5738822" target="_blank">shift</a> Clydesdale bank’s corporate registration to England in the event of a “yes” vote. But even in that case it’s a small part of the NAB.
The bigger concern would be if independence affects England in a significant way, since this is a bigger trading partner for Australia. As we saw last week, markets have rightly been concerned about the impact on England. At the very least there would be an 18-month plus process of “demerging” two countries, a process that would be complicated and distracting.
Keep calm
Yet, whatever the impact on England, it’s hard to see how it would materially impact Australian business. The pound might weaken relative to the Australian dollar, potentially hurting Australian exporters. Having said that, we would all do well to heed former treasury secretary Ken Henry’s advice on Tuesday to be less focused on the real exchange rate in this country. The impact of a modest devaluation of the pound just won’t make much difference.
Could independence lead to a major blow-up of the English economy? As we learnt in 2008, a major problem in any significant economy can quickly reverberate around the world. We are all interconnected now. A big problem in England could be a big problem for world financial markets, Australia’s among them.
This is possible, but it seems highly unlikely. England is a very large economy with its own currency and a broad web of international economic connections. Scotland is close, historic, and important – but independence is not likely to lead to an economic meltdown in England.
Perhaps it could change politics in England in a big way and this could have an effect. Perhaps a more conservative Tory leader would emerge. And perhaps that would lead to different economic policies. But that’s a lot of perhapses.
Demerging two countries would be wrenching. It would affect those countries — especially Scotland — in lots of ways, including economically.
Whatever the pros of a “yes” vote for Scotland, it would bring with it huge economic risks. And some for England, too. For Australia and Australian businesses, the risk is small.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/31724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Richard Holden is professor of economics at <a href="https://www.asb.unsw.edu.au/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">UNSW Australia Business School</a>.
<h5> </h5>
Richard Holden is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. 
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Independence day? What a Scottish ‘yes’ vote would mean for Australian markets

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Some surprising set of news last week as the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Aug%202014?OpenDocument" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Labour Force</a> data showed total employment leaping by an outlandish 121,000 in the month of August, the greatest net gain in the history of the data series which runs all the way back to 1978.
Most of the gains were of the part-time nature, reported full-time employment increased by 14,300 and part-time employment by 106,700.
Of course, the data represents only a survey and therefore the results are necessarily volatile and should not be taken too literally. The huge variance against expectations will do little to enhance the credibility of the survey's accuracy. 
In particular, the huge boost in part-time employment seems likely to be largely a result of sample rotation.
Nevertheless, such a large gain in employment must be reflective of at least some good news in the economy.
Total employment jumps
The total employment gain was welcome news after a weak result last time around.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mrUDmv8-6LA/VBFRgqPGO5I/AAAAAAAAPro/oo15o57A8KU/s1600/1.jpg"> 
Over the past year total employment has increased by 128,000 for females and 111,000 for males.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-moissCZGpvc/VBFRgi66JgI/AAAAAAAAPr8/OVCxMMeB5C8/s1600/2.jpg"> 
Zooming in the total employed chart to a five year time frame shows what a truly anomalous result the August gain was - a monster uplift in reported total employment.
Clearly the monthly data is noisy but the economy must be doing something right for total employment to continue its right to the highest level in Australia's history at more than 11.7 million.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-14IjNw0pFBw/VBFRg7s9OdI/AAAAAAAAPrs/AjYeEghJPR8/s1600/3.jpg">
Total employment by state
More interestingly, what is happening at the state level?
The month of August showed the New South Wales economy to be leading the way with a hefty gain in total employment (+45,000) albeit with the majority of that fueled by part-time employment gains.
Queensland (+27,000), Victoria (+26,000), South Australia (+17,000), Western Australia (+10,000) and Tasmania (+4,000) also each benefited to a greater or lesser extent in the month (question marks over the integrity of the data notwithstanding).
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GN3Spx7s4uQ/VBFRhimgcMI/AAAAAAAAPr0/hwSoPu1G1tU/s1600/4.jpg">
The cumulative jobs added by state chart below is very much a three horse race, with New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland leading the way, although over the past four years the momentum is all with Sydney.
South Australia and Tasmania (which I haven't charted here) have lagged badly for the past half decade although the August data proved to be reasonably good in both cases.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MhkqMBWv83A/VBFRithdlQI/AAAAAAAAPsE/KbZu1n5prdY/s1600/5.jpg"> 
Sydney's economy currently stands to benefit from a major construction boom. Of course, as the boom is largely of the residential property nature, property owners would be wise to keep a watchful eye on oversupply risk.
Our latest data shows that on a city-wide basis the Sydney market remains relatively tight with a vacancy rate of only 1.8% which is well under the national and capital city average of 2.3%. Certain inner west and Canterbury-Bankstown suburbs have vacancy rates which are far lower again at below 1.5%.
However, there are some areas we do highlight as having significant oversupply potential, particularly for new apartment stock around the Central Business District, the inner south and surrounding some of the Urban Activation Precincts (UAPs). 
Caveat emptor.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Unemployment rate by state 
Commentators reserved much of their scorn for the unemployment rate by state which continues to leap around in manic-depressive fashion. The national unemployment rate month dived from 6.4% to 6.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis, reversed much of the previous month's spike.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GOXOvAT7sZ4/VBFRjkKTHHI/AAAAAAAAPsQ/2vC2IJ1GxP0/s1600/6.jpg"> 
This month threw out some particularly wild unemployment rate changes at the state level, but users of the data would be wise to observe the trend rather than the noise, which remains up, albeit on a somewhat shallower basis than previously implied.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V990bDN0pLA/VBFRj4qFHNI/AAAAAAAAPsU/PZRIr7H_oBo/s1600/7.jpg"> 
The August data showed unemployment rate falls across the board with Western Australia (5.0%) and New South Wales (5.7%) recording the lowest rates.
The data recorded some enormous falls in August with South Australia and Tasmania in particular seeing a colossal drop in their respective unemployment rates despite an overall increase in the participation rate.
Lovely to see but most commentators will be unlikely to suspend their disbelief based upon one month of noise.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PD8ceVilwFQ/VBFRkhOf-GI/AAAAAAAAPsg/wQw-kOPjzmY/s1600/8.jpg">
Summary and property market implications
A literally unbelievably good boost in total employment must at least mask some positive news in the wider economy, but of course we would want to see any trend confirmed over time rather than becoming too aroused by one rogue print.
Cash rate futures and currency markets responded with further interest rate cuts now totally priced out of the yield curve.
With monetary policy settings at the current level we of course have expected to see dwelling prices rising across Australia but there remain serious question marks as to how sustainable gains in this cycle can be in most cities and regions.
Sydney and Melbourne have been boosted by an apparent explosion in demand from offshore funds.
Commentators for some time have reported that Sydney's cycle is over with investor demand being pulled forward. What they failed to account for is that equity gains create new deposits, and we are seeing plenty of evidence of refinancing in order to clamber aboard the Sydney property bandwagon at the present time.
On the other hand, there will be no such explosion in demand elsewhere and hence no equivalent property boom, and this was backed up further by today's Labour Force report. Total employment has been trending down in the Northern Territory for the past five months while the 2014 employment data flowing out of Canberra has proved to be flatter than a gander's arch. The August employment data for South Australia and Tasmania was reasonably positive but the five year charts look dire. Meanwhile, Western Australia appears to be holding up reasonably well but is clearly a state in transition from mining construction to production.  Overall this property cycle possibly has a little way to run yet, but gains outside Sydney are likely to be relatively disappointing as compared to the property booms of Christmases past.
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What does the 'unbelievable' boost in employment mean for the property market?

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Numbeo’s cost of living statistics for cities across the world provides an interesting comparison point for Australian cities.
Ranked by the rent index, Sydney soars to the top of the list as the most expensive. However, when ranked by the consumer price plus rent index, Darwin takes the lead. In fact, Perth, Sydney and Darwin fight for spaces on the Consumer Price Index most expensive (not including rent).
Here are the statistics to know:
<table style="width: 460px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="88">
 
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="80">
Rent Index
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap width="223">
Consumer Price plus Rent Index
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Darwin
</td>
<td width="80">
75.99
</td>
<td width="223">
102.53
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Sydney
</td>
<td width="80">
83.08
</td>
<td width="223">
100.73
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Perth
</td>
<td width="80">
70.31
</td>
<td width="223">
99.43
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Melbourne
</td>
<td width="80">
59.37
</td>
<td width="223">
87.84
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Canberra
</td>
<td width="80">
63.17
</td>
<td width="223">
87.48
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Brisbane
</td>
<td width="80">
59.93
</td>
<td width="223">
87.02
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Newcastle
</td>
<td width="80">
56.59
</td>
<td width="223">
82.01
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Hobart
</td>
<td width="80">
49.67
</td>
<td width="223">
80.19
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Adelaide
</td>
<td width="80">
45.26
</td>
<td width="223">
79.43
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Gold Coast
</td>
<td width="80">
49.05
</td>
<td width="223">
79.17
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Wollongong
</td>
<td width="80">
48.33
</td>
<td width="223">
79.13
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="88">
Cairns
</td>
<td width="80">
41.08
</td>
<td width="223">
74.25
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 Source: Numbeo
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Cost of living v rent: How do the states compare?

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Economic wellbeing declined during the second quarter of 2014, with preservation of lifestyle becoming the chief concern of 47% of those surveyed, according to ING DIRECT’s Household Financial Wellbeing Index.
The five top concerns
<ol>
<li>Maintaining current lifestyle (47%, but increased to 56% for baby boomers)</li>
<li>Managing new costs from Federal Budget (45%)</li>
<li>Meeting large on-off costs, e.g. home renovations or car maintenance (31%)</li>
<li>Job stability (25%, but up to 40% of Gen Y households)</li>
<li>Increasing debt (18%, but totalling 25% of Gen Y households)</li>
</ol>
Source: ING DIRECT
This has led to the financial ambitions of Australians surveyed being larger about reducing spending and holding onto funds. A total of 44% wanted to save more, with 63% of Gen Y putting this as their priority.
Reducing the cost of living (41% overall, 50% of baby boomers), cutting back on discretionary spending (32%), getting a better paying job (18% overall, 30% of Gen Y) and earning more by working longer hours (10% overall, 20% of Gen Y) were the top finance ambitions.
The trend towards maintaining, rather than improving, lifestyle came as a worry to ING DIRECT executive director of customer John Arnott, who noted that costs are rising faster than incomes.
“On the plus side, households are taking responsible steps to preserve and even improve their financial wellbeing, with many looking at ways to actively cut costs rather than relying on increased debt, which can lead to greater financial pain further down the track,” said Arnott.
The Household Financial Wellbeing Index measures sentiment across debt, income, investments, savings and ability to meet household bills.
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Australians' top five financial concerns: ING

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One of the best pieces of advice I've received as a property investor is to "follow the jobs growth".
Australia is in the midst of a significant structural shift towards knowledge and services based industries and the data shows that increasingly jobs growth, population growth and economic output is flowing to the centre of our major capitals.
With just over 60% of Australia's population located in the five largest capital cities it might seem reasonable to expect that around 60% of jobs created would be in those five largest capital cities too.
However, this is nowhere near being the case as this week's <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6291.0.55.001" target="_blank">Detailed Labour Force</a> data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed.
Over the years our analysis shows that jobs growth has been much stronger in the five largest capital cities at well over 70% of the total for their respective states.
And over the past five years, of the jobs growth in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, some 77.4% of the jobs added have been in the capital cities, with only regional Queensland contributing significantly.
Not only is there a structural shift afoot in favour of capital cities and centralisation, our analysis of the data below shows that the trend is actually now accelerating.
Full-time employment growth
Looking at full-time jobs growth over the long-term we can see that while regional New South Wales has added jobs until relatively recently, the overwhelming majority of employment growth has been in the capital cities:
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dt8z9s3UOG4/U_B05mGAQMI/AAAAAAAAPQ4/9Tm5vYiGNrM/s1600/a.jpg">
In the other states we expect to see something similar playing out, with one exception: Queensland.
Queensland is home to some large and growing conurbations outside Brisbane including Gold Coast/Tweed Heads, Sunshine Coast, Cairns, Toowoomba and Townsville, for example, and as such the rest of state figures for Queensland have tracked relatively strongly. Not so elsewhere...
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1tKh0E-aoNw/U_B07TRQUcI/AAAAAAAAPRU/_i04FRUITmA/s1600/b.jpg">
Total employment growth 
In recent times many jobs added are not of the full-time variety and therefore we have run the same charts for total employment growth over the long run. Note that regional Victoria has added more part-time jobs, but still it is the capital cities which overwhelmingly lead the way.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uHIgsX1gC1g/U_B03-q19FI/AAAAAAAAPQo/p3i7sUidN8E/s1600/1.jpg"> 
And it's a similar story in the other states. 
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AxBZkLXhp2k/U_B04C2vmyI/AAAAAAAAPQk/YJCm3-l5Buo/s1600/2.jpg"> 
These figures are sometimes easier to interpret in a column chart, and here the evidence in favour of Australia's increasing dependence upon its capital cities for total employment growth and prosperity is compelling (click chart):
 <img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GpnmuqCiJ3c/U_B04DvW1aI/AAAAAAAAPQg/bsf_ncP_K1M/s1600/3.jpg"> 
We note that jobs growth in regional Australia has stalled, and with the mining construction boom transitioning into the production phase, this trend is likely to become worse rather than better.
Unemployment
Finally, we note that employment growth is not yet occurring fast enough in this cycle to offset population growth in the capital cities and thus the trend in unemployment is up.
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d5ufWNhUMmM/U_B05okGE_I/AAAAAAAAPRA/yXtI3XyDhvM/s1600/5.jpg"> 
Our analysis of population growth in the 'rest of state' regional areas over recent years has shown the growth in regional population to be comparatively weak, and therefore unemployment should not be rising. However, regional jobs growth in Australia has almost totally stalled and the the recent unemployment trend is therefore still up in most cases. 
 <img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d5ufWNhUMmM/U_B05okGE_I/AAAAAAAAPRA/yXtI3XyDhvM/s1600/5.jpg">
In short, the capital cities are increasingly becoming the job and population growth magnets, and as the data continues to show, this is becoming more and more so the case as the years progress.
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Structural shift towards capital city employment accelerates

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According to a new nationwide survey, 46% of Australians have been forced to reduce their spending on "essential" items.
The independent consumer body CHOICE reports that renters are the hardest hit, with 45% of renters reporting that they are struggling to get by on their current income, compared to 27% of mortgage holders. Low-income households and parents with school-aged children also reported financial hardship.
Of the 1,001 survey respondents, 31% said they were finding it difficult to get by on their current income, with 11% finding it "very difficult". Only 18% said they were "living comfortably", with 5% responding that they were living "very comfortably".
CHOICE chief executive Alan Kirkland says one in every five respondents reported they have relied on credit cards or borrowing from friends or family to cope until payday.
"This reveals some striking concerns with cost-of-living, which is perhaps not surprising at a time when inflation is outstripping sluggish wages growth, retail sales are fragile and the political debate remains focused on household expenses,” says Kirkland.
Government cutbacks were a major concern for consumers, with 72% worried about government spending cuts. Kirkland calling public spending reductions "the major consumer worry".
Major household concerns include electricity bills, fuel and food and groceries. The survey, which saw 52% of respondents claiming they were "very worried" about electricity prices, was conducted before the repeal of the carbon tax.
“With such a drawn-out debate over the carbon tax it is not surprising to see electricity at the top of the list, although clearly prices have been driven by a number of factors, including rising infrastructure costs,” says Kirkland.
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