Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Economy

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/66414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
It is surely time for governments around the world, including Australia’s, to remember the first law of holes: if you’re in one, stop digging.
Governments have been digging madly since the global financial crisis, injecting massive amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus. It hasn’t worked. 
We don’t have much to show for it in Australia - an interest bill of $16 billion on government debt compared with zero before the crisis, and a growth rate and unemployment rate that are struggling to meet long term averages. 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has repeatedly downgraded its global growth forecasts over the past decade and is about to releaseanother downbeat global growth forecast.
The world economy is in its 6th year of below average growth since 1990. Japan has not grown at all - its GDP in 2016 is exactly at the level it was in 2008 – despite massive amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus over a decade. 
Growth in Europe has remained below 1% every year since 2008, well below its pre-crisis levels, despite the United States Federal Reserve relentlessly pumping new money into the banking system with interest rates already zero. And the US also remains in a funk with growth at 1.5%, less than the 2.5% long run average, having also pumped new money into its banking system and running budget deficits every year that have seen government debt steadily grow as a share of the economy.
Incredibly, the IMF and some governments have not given up. They now accept that perhaps cheap money and plenty of it hasn’t worked, but they still cling to fiscal stimulus as the last great hope as long as it’s the right kind. 
According to the IMF, debt-financed government infrastructure spending is the answer – think roads, ports, power and communication networks. They have constructed a mathematical model showing that such infrastructure spending, funded by borrowing, actually reduces the government debt to GDP ratio in a world of low interest rates. This is because it boosts GDP by more than it raises debt, and boosts overall economic wellbeing.
This will be music to the ears of those politicians who want to spend big on infrastructure. It is however a pipedream. 
The problem is not so much what the debt is used for, although that does matter, it is more the size of debt itself. Since 2008, government debt has increased in almost all advanced countries as a ratio to GDP. 
In the US total government debt has increased from 92 to 125%, in the UK from 63 to 114%, in Japan from 184 to 246%, in Australia from 34 to 65%, and even in relatively austere Germany from 68 to 82%. The combination of rising government debt and booming asset prices (stocks and housing) financed by monetary stimulus is dangerous. 
We have seen through the global financial crisis the devastating effects of a collapse in asset prices on the economy, especially on economies with debts whether held by the private or public sector. Indeed it’s this memory that is surely one of the factors currently holding back spending by households and firms.
In this environment, it would be reckless of governments to embark on major fiscal stimulus that raises their debt levels further. The IMF’s model does not take account of the risk of an asset price collapse in a world of high debt and the effect this has on private sector spending. 
It needs to be said that the IMF’s model is essentially the same type of model that it uses to forecast GDP growth of countries and which The Economist found had an appalling record of inaccuracy. The Economist team took a sample of 220 instances from 1999 to 2014 where a country went from growth in one year to recession in the next, and found that the IMF had never once predicted the looming recession in its April forecasts of the previous year.
There is at least one prescription to the world’s low growth problem that governments have not yet tried. That is to do precisely nothing – stop digging. We may even discover things about the economy’s restorative powers that we didn’t know, or had forgotten.
A related idea is to actively unwind government intervention where evidence suggests it is not working. It is easy to dismiss such prescriptions as the old-hat 1990s deregulation agenda. 
But that was a period of great prosperity in Australia and elsewhere. In any case it’s not about deregulation, but more like what David Cameron in the UK called “better regulation” which was enabled through the Deregulation Act 2015. It is worth noting that growth in the UK has been the strongest in Europe in recent years.
Back to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia should keep its power dry when it meets today and hold its official interest rate steady at 1.5 percent. And so it should for some time to come. 
The Australian government should do the same and not be seduced by the siren call from the IMF and others to spend up big on infrastructure.
Ross Guest is professor of economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ross-guest-13155" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Governments and central banks should stop trying to stimulate the economy

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A quick overview of the latest trends in key Australian economic data.
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Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Australian data summary table 26 September: Westpac's Andrew Hanlan

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GUEST OBSERVER
I have written extensively about the need for the new Governor of the Reserve Bank to adjust his inflation target from 2–3 percent to 1–3 percent to reflect the reality of lower global inflation relative to the mid 1990’s, when the target was originally successfully adopted. 
However, as noted at the time, I held out little hope that the new Governor would take my advice. 
Accordingly, I was not surprised to see this week’s announcement that the target had been “confirmed” as 2–3 percent. However, there has been a subtle change from “on average over the cycle “ to “over time”. The Governor also emphasised in his Statement to the House of Representatives on Thursday that “the main drafting change is to make the link between monetary policy and financial stability a little more direct”. 
If we weigh those two changes together, they go some way to achieving the objective that I was most concerned about. My concern was that the new Governor might, when confronted with an impossible task of lifting inflation to above 2.5 percent to “average” 2.5 percent over the cycle, might unnecessarily impact asset markets. By using the vague term “over time” and linking policy directly to financial stability (read asset markets), he has allayed much of my concern on that issue. Markets are likely to eventually scale back prospects for further rate cuts given these developments. 
With that policy issue now resolved, I am allocating the rest of this note to some of the opportunities and risks now facing the evolving Australian economy. 
While overall growth in the Australian economy has been remarkably stable since the Global Financial Crisis – holding in the 2.5 percent – 3.0 percent range – the source of this growth has changed markedly. We have seen the huge terms of trade and mining investment cycles almost run their course. The early stages of these cycles were marked by strong income boosts, particularly in the mining states of Western Australia and Queensland, due to surging commodity prices and a spectacular mining investment cycle. Of course, these two cycles were linked, with the surge in commodity prices signalling a commercial opportunity to raise capacity, particularly in the LNG and coal seam gas sectors.
A necessary adjunct to these cycles was a strong AUD and elevated interest rates. The impact on the mining states of these uncompetitive market settings was minimal, with the strong volume and price boosts underpinning their prosperity. On the other hand, the south eastern states – New South Wales and Victoria – struggled under the weight of the high currency and rising interest rates. 
With the mining investment boom now unravelling; Australia’s terms of trade having peaked in September 2011 and both the Australian dollar and interest rates down substantially, Australia is now looking to other sources of demand to sustain its admirable growth record. Those sources are services exports; residential construction; public transport infrastructure and population growth. 
These growth sources are dominated by the south eastern states. New South Wales and Victoria have been the major beneficiaries of the services boom. Education exports; business services and tourism are the key drivers of this success. Between 2007 and 2013, net services exports subtracted around 0.3 – 0.8ppts from GDP growth on average over most years. Since 2013, these sectors are responsible for adding 0.3 – 0.7ppts to growth.
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Residential construction, particularly driven by the boom in high rise apartments, has shown a considerable lift in its contribution to growth. The construction “boom” has equally been centred around the south eastern states. 
Partly funded by the revenue windfalls from housing activity in their states, New South Wales and Victoria are also experiencing a welcome boost to public sector infrastructure investment. In the last six months, “projects committed or under construction” have lifted from $32bn at the beginning of this year to $51bn in New South Wales, and from $7bn to $21bn in Victoria. That compares with a net lift of only $7bn in all the other states combined. 
Finally we are now seeing population growth in both New South Wales and Victoria exceed the national pace for the first time in 20 years. 
But, just as the mining and commodity cycles were heavily dependent on China, so are these latest sources of growth. Growth in tourism and education is dominated by China. This partly reflects the sharp increase in China’s overall services trade deficit. This deficit has more than doubled as a proportion of GDP over the last five years, and in the first half of 2016 was more than 50 percent of the goods trade surplus. 
At some point, the Chinese authorities, who appear to have stabilised last year’s spectacular near USD 1 trillion loss in foreign reserves, may decide to slow this leakage. Certainly we have seen marked evidence of a tightening of capital controls, particularly for the non-corporate sector.
That tightening of capital controls might also impact the construction boom. The number of high rise apartments currently under construction in March this year (ABS latest) has surged to 110,000 – including 44,000 in New South Wales; 34,000 in Victoria; and 23,000 in Queensland. 
As discussed, the south east is dominating the high rise boom. However, a significant proportion of the buyers are offshore based (so called FIRB buyers). Local banks have stopped funding FIRB buyers, presenting risks to local developers who may have sold more than 50% of their stock to these buyers. 
It is generally accepted that apartment buyers in the Melbourne CBD have incurred some capital losses, while Sydney purchasers are seeing their profits squeezed. These liquidity and capital loss prospects may discourage foreign buyers, with the result of sharply slowing the apartment construction cycle. 
On the other hand, foreign banks are seeking to partly fill the funding gap, while large foreign developers may also be able to relieve liquidity stresses for these buyers. 
Overall, huge uncertainty prevails in this market, with possible outcomes ranging from ongoing spectacular momentum to a sudden liquidity driven slowdown. In those circumstances, one part of the recent boost to Australia’s growth story might fade quickly. 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Future challenges for the Australian economy: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Perth is not known as a model for suburbia and its suburban condition is similar to that of developed cities the world over.
However, it does stand out in one respect: it sits in an exceptionally biodiverse natural setting. A strong, informed vision for this setting’s relationship with the city could help Perth become an exemplar for similarly positioned metropolises everywhere.
The greater Perth region has been designated the Southwest Australia Ecoregion (SWAE). This is one of only 35 “biodiversity hotspots” in the world.
Reconciling future growth with biodiversity is a key issue for urban design and planning this century. Indeed, if current trends continue, global urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million square kilometres(equivalent to half the area of Western Australia) by 2030. Much of this will happen in biodiversity hotspots.
This is important because it is estimated we will lose nearly half of all terrestrial species if we fail to protect the hotspots. We will also lose the ecosystem services upon which human populations ultimately depend.
“Ecosystem services” may sound like abstract jargon, but it’s actually a term used to describe the services nature provides – such as clean air, water and food, and heatwave and flood mitigation. Without these, human life would be extremely unpleasant, if not unviable.
Perth has a reputedly strong planning system and is comparatively wealthy. If it can’t control its city form to protect biodiversity – compact cities generally being recognised as the best model for protecting land for conservation – then city administrators elsewhere, particularly in the developing world, are likely to struggle.
Misreading the land
The current treatment of the Australian environment has its roots in the European annexation of Australia, which has been characterised by catastrophic misreadings of the land. Governor James Stirling, who was singularly responsible for the European annexation of Perth, was the kind of man who saw what he wanted to see rather than what was there. In The Origins of Australia’s Capital Cities, Geoffrey Bolton writes:
"…arriving at the end of … an uncommonly cool, moist summer, [Stirling was] misled by the tallness of the northern jarrah forest and the quality of the alluvial soils close to the river into believing that the coastal plain would offer fertile farming and grazing. It was, Stirling wrote, equal to the plains of Lombardy; and he persuaded himself that the cool easterly land breeze of these early autumn nights must originate from a range of snowy mountains."
The results of such misinterpretations of the land were generally less poetic. Stirling sited the settlement of Perth on a narrow, constrained strip of land between swamps to the north and marshy river edges to the south. These low-lying areas fuelled plagues of mosquitos and, once polluted, deadly typhoid outbreaks.
In time, due to a lingering discomfort with Perth’s “unsanitary” wetlands, more than 200,000 hectares – an area equivalent to 500 Kings Parks – were drained on the Swan Coastal Plain. These biologically productive areas directly or indirectly support most of the coastal plain’s wildlife, so the effects on biodiversity have been catastrophic.
Furthermore, a perception of the Banksia woodland and coastal heath on Perth’s fringes as unattractive and useless has seen much of it cleared for the expansion of the city. Between 2001 and 2009, suburban growth consumed an annual average of 851ha of highly biodiverse land on the urban fringe.
The lesson from this experience is that any future growth in a biodiversity hotspot, or indeed elsewhere, has to be founded on the understanding that we cannot continue to bend nature to our will. We must learn how to work with it.
Within this humbling process, we need to recognise that working with the land is not an entirely pure or noble act; rather, it is imperative for humanity’s survival. As species and ecosystems become threatened and vanish, so too do the ecosystem services that support human wellbeing.
Perth’s Green Growth Plan
The release of the state government’s long-anticipated Perth and Peel Green Growth Plan for 3.5 million may herald a shift in the relationshipbetween the city and the biodiversity hotspot. The plan encapsulates two broad goals:
<ul>
<li>to protect fringe bushland, rivers, wetlands and wildlife in an impressive 170,000 hectares of new and expanded reserves on Perth’s fringe</li>
<li>to cut red tape by securing upfront Commonwealth environmental approvals for outer suburban development.</li>
</ul>
While ostensibly positive achievements, a question remains as to the implications of clearing a further 45,000ha (3% of the Swan Coastal Plain) of remnant bushland which is not protected by the conservation reserves.
Furthermore, the typically disconnected conservation reserves proposed in the Green Growth Plan lack overall legibility. This stymies the public’s ability to conceptualise the city’s edge, which leads them to care about it (like London’s greenbelt, for instance).
Finally, a question remains about how a plan that places restrictions on outer suburban development will accommodate the powerful local land development industry over time. This is a concern given the frequent “urban break-outs” – where urban development occurs outside nominated growth areas – between 1970 and 2005.
In 2003, the ABC asked revered Western Australian landscape architect Marion Blackwell, “Are we at home now in the land we live in?” She replied, “No, we’re not. We don’t know enough about it, and not enough people know anything about it.”
We still have work to do on our engagement with biodiversity in Western Australia, and Perth specifically, before we can become a model for future cities.
Julian Bolleter is research fellow, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, University of Western Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julian-bolleter-292111" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Squandering riches: can Perth realise the value of its biodiversity?

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GUEST OBSERVER
Consumer Sentiment has been remarkably stable for the last six months. Over that period the Index has averaged 100.3 so today’s reading is just 1.0 percent above this average. 
Indeed the September reading is just 1.7 percent above the average reading over the previous six month period to March as well. 
This stability over the last six months has been despite significant events that can usually be expected to impact confidence: two interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank and associated reductions in mortgage rates; a Commonwealth Budget; a Federal election; and some major developments offshore such as the surprise UK referendum result (‘Brexit’) and the build -up leading into November’s US election. 
In the September survey we have the benefit of respondents nominating those news categories that they most recalled and whether that news was favourable or unfavourable. There have been some important trends that might explain the stability of confidence at a reasonably solid level.
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A year ago the most recalled news items were around ‘economic conditions’ (53.9 percent of respondents) and ‘international events’ (41.8 percent of respondents). Recall on these topics is now down to 21.9 percent and 11.4 percent respectively. Not surprisingly, the news is assessed to be considerably less unfavourable today than last year. Having said that there has been a marginal deterioration in the assessment of domestic economic conditions since June. That move has been more than matched by a significant improvement in the assessment of news on international conditions over the last three months. 
The most recalled news category in September was ‘Budget and taxation’ (26 percent). News on this category has been assessed as more unfavourable than in June but still less unfavourable than a year ago. 
Recall levels for news items on ‘interest rates’ (15.2 percent); ‘employment’ (11.9 percent); and ‘inflation’ (6.4 percent) have been fairly steady over the last year. However for all of these categories, we have seen significant improvements in how news has been viewed. 
That theme of improving assessment of the jobs market is supported by the Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index. This fell from 141.2 in August to 138.4 in September (down 2 percent, recalling that a lower print means fewer respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the year ahead). The Index is now down 11.5 percent over the last year and 10.5 percent since September 2014. The Index was stubbornly high through 2012- 2015 so it is very encouraging that confidence seems to be gradually returning to the jobs market. 
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Confidence in the housing market is improving. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell 2.5% in September from 112.1 in August to 109.3 in September. The Index is still 7.5 percent above its level from a year ago and 4.3 percent above its average for the last six months. Confidence in both the major markets improved over the month. Sydney lifted by 4.0 percent and Melbourne rose by 5.1 percent. 
Confirmation of a continuation of improvements in the housing market was apparent in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index which increased by 3.0 percent for the month to be up by 6.0 percent for the year. Increases were recorded in NSW, Victoria and Queensland. 
There were mixed messages around the components of the Index. Of most significance was a 3.5 percent jump in the sub-index tracking assessments of ‘family finances vs a year ago’. Readers will recall that the Reserve Bank usually highlights this component when discussing its assessment of the consumer in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Less encouraging was a 2.3 percent fall in the subindex tracking views on ‘family finances over the next 12 months’. While the overall Index is up 8 percent over the last year both ‘family finances’ components are around the same levels. 
Confidence around the economic outlook deteriorated somewhat. The sub-index tracking views on ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ fell by 4.6% while the ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ sub index increased by 1.1 percent. 
The sub-index tracking assessments of ‘time to buy major household Item’ increased by 3.5 percent to now be 16.5 percent up on a year ago. 
In this survey, we also receive information on respondents’ saving preferences .These responses are particularly important for assessing whether there has been a change in risk aversion. Consistent with ‘stability’ in the overall survey we saw little change in saving preferences. Most respondents still see bank deposits as the wisest form of saving (29.9 percent up marginally from 29.5 percent in June). That proportion compares to the 40yr peak of 39% in 2012 when risk aversion was much higher.
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A second measure of risk aversion is the component ‘pay down debt’. That proportion increased from 20.0 percent to 21.0 percent and compares with record high of 27 percent in 2010. However the ‘pay down debt’ component has steadily lifted over the last three years. 
The proportions favouring ‘real estate’ (15.4 percent) and ‘shares’ (8.6 percent) remained steady in September. 
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on October 4. This will be the first meeting under the new Governor Lowe. It is extremely unlikely that there will be any change to rates at that meeting. 
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Since the cash rate returned to its historical low of 3% in 2013 all six subsequent cuts have occurred on the meetings in February/ May/August and November when the Bank has a ‘fresh’ print on inflation and is able to communicate any forecast changes in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. That really suggests that the next ‘live’ meeting will be November 1. 
We expect rates will be held steady in November as well. Signs of stability in the real economy, as signalled in this report, point to steady rates being the most appropriate policy. Of course there is always the possibility of a shock from the inflation report on October 26 but both our inflation forecasts and our assessment of current high RBA inertia to moving again this year point to stability in November. 
<a href="/images/2016/09/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-15%20at%208.14.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Consumer sentiment stabilises at solid level: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia's economy has done well, considering it has had to absorb a significant negative shock from the end of the mining boom. 
Over the past few years, commodity prices have fallen by 60 percent and mining investment has declined from around 8 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. 
Historically, much smaller falls have typically caused recessions. But, as last week's GDP figures clearly illustrated, Australia's 'R-word' has been rebalancing not recession. Although business investment was a -1.6ppt drag on growth, overall GDP grew by a strong 3.3 percent y-o-y in Q2. 
The mining investment fall has been more than offset by a ramp up in resources exports and growth in services exports, housing construction and household spending. Looking forward, the drag from mining investment and falling commodity prices should now fade. This is expected to mean continued solid overall GDP growth, despite the housing construction boom nearing its end. We see the RBA on hold in coming quarters. 
The more downbeat economic observers have, in recent years, described the economy as falling off the 'mining investment cliff' and said that Australia would have an 'income recession' as a result of the fall in commodity prices. The end of the mining boom has, indeed, been a big negative shock to absorb. 
But although mining investment has fallen significantly and declining commodity prices have weighed on nominal GDP, growth in real GDP and employment has remained solid. Last week's GDP numbers showed that Australia's economy grew at an above-trend 3.3 percent over the year to Q2 2016. Over the past five years, GDP growth has averaged 2.8 percent (which is around its trend rate) and jobs growth has been strong enough to see the unemployment rate fall from its early-2015 peak of 6.25 percent to now sit around 5.75 percent. 
How has this happened? Australia's growth has been rebalancing from the mining to the non- mining sectors ('Australia's great rebalancing act', December 2012). Low interest rates have supported a housing price and construction boom while the lower AUD and rising middle class incomes in Asia are driving increased demand for Australia's services exports, including tourism, education and business services. 
Importantly, the big drag from mining investment and commodity prices is almost done. The worst is in the past. As a result, even those that have been pessimistic about the impact of the end of the mining boom should now have less to worry about. 
Mining investment, which has been a drag of a hefty 4.5ppts of GDP over the past four years, will stop being a drag soon. On our estimates, mining investment subtracted around 1.8ppts from GDP over the year to Q2 2016, but will only subtract 0.5ppts from growth in the year to Q2 2017 and will not be a drag the following year. 
The drag will therefore subside by 1.3ppt this coming year and 0.5ppt the next year. And, because the LNG export ramp up will still be underway, the resources sector as a whole should contribute to overall real GDP growth. 
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We also expect that commodity prices have already passed the trough. If so, nominal GDP growth, tax revenues and even wages should get some support. Commodity prices have already made up the losses from late last year and are flat y-o-y, so are no longer a drag. On our forecasts, nominal GDP growth could pick-up from 3.4 percent y-o-y in Q2 2016 to 6 percent y-o-y by Q2 2017. 
Other downbeat commentators now point out that the end of Australia's housing price and construction boom could see weaker growth next year and into 2018. Having grown so strongly recently, housing construction will fall at some point and weaker house prices could deliver a negative wealth effect. While we agree that the housing price boom is over and that housing construction will start to be a drag on growth from around mid-2017, to us, the arithmetic suggests that this will be more than offset by the subsiding mining investment drag. 
Mining will stop being a drag just as the housing sector becomes one. The net of the two effects should still leave the economy growing, as the fall in mining investment was much bigger than the decline in housing investment is likely to be. 
We see little evidence that the housing price boom has driven a particularly strong positive wealth effect so doubt that the cooling of the housing price boom will see a significant negative one. 
What will be the main driver of growth? Services exports, led by tourism, education and business services. It's already happening, and in our view, is set to continue. Keep in mind that the services sector accounts for over 70 percent of Australia's GDP. 
This should continue to support jobs growth, as it has done in recent years. It should also start to spur more business investment. Last week's GDP numbers showed tentative signs of a pick-up in non-mining business investment. 
Australia's rebalancing is almost complete, at which point we expect domestic wages and inflation to stabilise. Once we have passed the trough in domestic wages and underlying inflation we expect that the RBA is unlikely to cut further. Our central case has the RBA on hold at 1.50 eprcent in coming quarters. 
 <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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Property 101: Mining's big drag is almost done: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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The Reserve Bank of Australia announced it will hold the official cash rate in September at the historically low rate of 1.50 percent.
The decline of rates throughout 2016 may be partly attributed to the stubborn Australian dollar, which hovered around US$0.76 for most of July and August. The RBA have used subtle language and interest rate cuts in an attempt to de-value the Australian currency over the year.
A lower Australian dollar increases competitiveness of Australian goods. It also increases general prices through imported inflation, lifting the price of imported inputs for Australian goods and services. The annual inflation rate of just 1% to June in Australia looks set to remain low, at least over the remainder of the year.  
Despite the best efforts of the RBA, the AUD continued to climb gradually since May, which partially contributed to the August cut. The persistently high AUD made a case for further rate cuts.
That was, until, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen spoke at a symposium on the 26th of August.
Yellen argued that strengthening in the US labour force meant “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months”. The speech was followed by comments from the Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, who indicated that US rates could rise as soon as September.
This hint at higher interest rates saw a boost to the USD, and a complementary weakening in the AUD. Graph 1 shows the movement of the AUD relative to the USD over August. This took pressure off the RBA to use monetary policy as a means to lower the dollar, and may have contributed to the hold decision this month.
Graph 1: AUD/USD-August 2016
<a href="/images/2016/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-09%20at%208.50.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-09%20at%208.50.40%20AM.png" alt="">
Source: RBA &amp; Trading Economics
The next Fed rate decision is September 22nd, and an increase is likely to place further downwards pressure on the AUD and potentially create room for the RBA to delay further rate cuts.
This is important, because residential property value growth and dwelling approvals in Sydney and Melbourne have continued to be reactive to rate cuts earlier this year. Across Australia, dwelling construction saw a 1.2% increase over the June quarter, and a strong 6% increase over the year. Meanwhile, other sectors of construction work fell dramatically: engineering work fell by 9% in the quarter, and private construction fell by 14% over the period. 
Building approvals were up across Australia in July, as the number of units approved increased 4.97% year on year. However, across the country the number of separate houses approved fell by 3.19%. Much of the growth in dwelling approvals for the year was driven by the Sydney and Melbourne markets. This was expected following a May rate cut as more dwelling development projects gain cost benefit. A hold in rates is likely to see the market steady.  
Graph 2: Trend Data - Residential Dwelling Approvals Australia Wide
<a href="/images/2016/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-09%20at%208.49.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-09%20at%208.49.29%20AM.png" alt="">
Source: RBA &amp; Onthehouse.com.au
Graph 3: Trend Data - Total Residential Dwelling Approvals by Capital City
<a href="/images/2016/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-09%20at%208.48.09%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-09%20at%208.48.09%20AM.png" alt="">
Source: RBA &amp; Onthehouse.com.au
The number of dwelling approvals across Australia over time is shown in Graph 2. While 2012-15 saw a steep increase in the number of dwelling approvals, another small upward trend can be seen over 2016. Graph 3 shows the original monthly data of total dwelling approvals by capital city (which is volatile relative to the trend data), with Sydney and Melbourne experiencing a significant surge.
The movements in dwelling approval data is expected, as it follows capital growth in the dwelling market. Following the May rate cut, Residex observed strong growth in Sydney and Melbourne dwellings for the June quarter, including a 1.85 percent surge in Sydney units, and 2.29 percent in Melbourne units.
The RBA faces a two-tiered economy in which housing has boosted growth in the south-east coast of Australia, while growth in other cities across Australia is subdued. Part time employment in Australia also reached a record high of 31.63 percent in July, suggesting ongoing structural challenges in full time job creation and wage growth. As the rate is held for September, we may expect these east coast markets to steady a little, and growth in approvals start to flatten.
Eliza Owen is market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au and can be contacted <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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The RBA faces a two-tiered economy: Eliza Owen

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian economy has just completed 25 consecutive years of economic growth. The last recession ended in June 1991.  
Solid growth: The economy grew by 0.5 percent in the June quarter with annual growth lifting from 3.0 percent to 3.3 percent.  
Contribution to growth: The biggest contributions to growth came from public investment (+0.7 percentage points) (pp), government consumption and inventories (both +0.3pp), household spending (+0.2pp), dwelling investment and private equipment investment (both +0.1pp). The biggest drag on growth was from non-residential building (-0.8 percentage points) and net exports (-0.2pp).  
Income: Real gross national income rose by 0.6 percent in the June quarter to be up 2.5 percent on the year. In nominal terms GDP lifted 1.3 percent in the quarter and rose by 3.4 percent over the year.  
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<img src="/images/2016/09/08/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-08%20at%208.32.47%20AM.png" alt=""> 
Productivity: Gross value added per hours worked in the market sector rose by 1.5 percent in the June quarter and by 2.9 percent over the year.  
Industry sectors: Fourteen of the 19 industry sectors expanded in the June quarter. The strongest sector was Professional, scientific and technical services, up 3.2 percent and adding 0.2 percentage points (pp) to growth. Eight other sectors added 0.1pp to overall growth. The Mining sector fell by 3.5 percent in the quarter and cutting 0.3pp from overall growth.  
What does it all mean?  
 There are no signs that Australia’s record economic expansion is coming to an end. Far from it – annual growth has lifted to 4-year highs. Australia has now notched up 100 quarters without a recession. Netherlands holds the record for the longest expansion at 103 quarters. Over the next year Australia should pick up the gold medal for the longest economic expansion of a developed economy in the modern era.  
It’s worth reflecting on Australia’s economic position. Economic growth is the fastest in four years and above long- term averages. Inflation stands at 1.0 percent. Interest rates stand at 1.5 percent. Unemployment stands at 5.7 percent. The mining construction boom may be over, but it has been replaced by a housing construction boom. There is much to like and celebrate about Australia’s economy.  
Could we be doing even better? There is always room for improvement. For instance, we could have even lower unemployment but still keeping inflationary pressures contained. The challenge for the authorities is to keep the expansion intact.  
The Reserve Bank could still cut rates – that is, if inflation remains low, rates could be cut to allow the economy to grow even faster. We continue to pencil in a rate cut in November. The question though is whether rates are already low enough to boost growth.  What do the figures show?  National Accounts:
Economic Growth: The Australian economy grew by 0.5 percent in the June quarter after a downwardly-revised 1.0 percent increase in the March quarter (previously up 1.1 percent). Forecasts had centred on 0.5 percent growth in the economy in the quarter. The economy still hasn’t experienced a recession for 25 years.  
The economy has grown 3.3 percent over the past year, above the decade-average growth rate of 2.8 percent and above the 15-year average of 3.0 percent. Annualised growth over the past six months has been 3.2 percent.  
The non-farm economy grew by 0.6 percent in the June quarter after a rising by 1.0 percent in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at 3.4 percent.  
Farm GDP fell by 4.3 percent in the June quarter after expanding by 3.4 percent in the March quarter. Farm GDP fell 3.3 percent over the year.  
At current prices, GDP rose by 1.3 percent in the June quarter to be up 3.4 percent on the year. The annual growth rate is still well below the decade average of 6.2 percent. Over the year to June 2016, the Australian economy was valued at $1,650 billion.  
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Growth drivers: The biggest contributions to growth came from public investment (+0.7 percentage points), government consumption and inventories (both +0.3pp), household spending (+0.2pp) and dwelling investment and private equipment investment (both +0.1pp). The biggest drag on growth was from non-residential building (- 0.8 percentage points) and net exports (-0.2pp).  
Inflation: In terms of domestic price pressures, the household consumption implicit price deflator rose by 0.4 percent in the June quarter after a 0.1 percent fall in the March quarter. Annual growth stands at just 0.9 percent – the lowest rate in 17 years. Real non-farm unit labour costs fell by 0.8 percent in the June quarter after a flat result in the March quarter. Real non-farm unit labour costs fell by 0.6 percent over the year.  
Productivity: Gross value added per hour worked market sector rose by 1.5 percent in the quarter and by 2.9 percent on the year. GDP per hour worked rose by 1.2 percent in the quarter and by 2.7 percent over the year. And hours worked in the market sector fell by 1.1 percent in the quarter to be up 0.1 percent on the year.  
States &amp; Territories: The only data available is state final demand (more accurate data would include net exports but it is not available for all states and territories). The ACT had the fastest annual growth rate in the June quarter (up 6.0 percent), followed by NSW (up 3.8 percent), Victoria (up 3.5 percent), Tasmania (up 1.9 percent), South Australia (up 1.7 percent) and Queensland (up 0.4 percent). The Northern Territory contracted by 10.4 percent,   followed by Western Australia (down 7.3 percent).
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Only five State and Territory economies had data on exports and imports. If you add in the trade figures, the ACT economy was up 6.3 percent over the year with NSW up 5.2 percent, Victoria up 4.5 percent, South Australia up 3.0 percent and Queensland up 1.3 percent.  
Consumer spending lifts. Household spending rose by 0.4 percent in the June quarter to be up 2.9 percent for the year. Only six of the 17 sectors recorded weaker spending in the quarter. Spending fell most in in Cigarettes &amp; tobacco (down 2.3 percent) and Electricity, gas and other fuel (down 2.2 percent). Spending rose most in Purchase of vehicles (up by 2.8 percent) and Health (up 2.1 percent).  
Industry sectors: Fourteen of the 19 industry sectors expanded in the June quarter. The strongest sector was Professional, scientific and technical services, up 3.2 percent and adding 0.2 percentage points (pp) to growth. Eight other sectors added 0.1pp to growth. The Mining sector fell by 3.5 percent in the quarter cutting 0.3pp from overall growth.  
Other points:
Profit share rises. In seasonally adjusted terms, the ratio of profits to total factor income rose from 24.5 percent to 24.9 percent in the June quarter. The wages share was steady at 54.1 percent.  
Household savings ratio steady. The household saving ratio was steady at 8.0 percent in seasonally adjusted terms in the June quarter. In trend terms household saving was steady at 7.9 percent in the June  quarter.  
Imports rose as a share of spending. The imports to sales ratio rose from 0.373 in the March quarter to  0.377 in the June quarter.  
The inventory to sales ratio was steady at 0.622 in the June quarter.  What is the importance of the economic data?  
The quarterly National Income, Expenditure and Product release (national accounts) from the Bureau of Statistics is the most complete assessment of Australia’s economic performance. Detailed estimates are provided on incomes (wages, profits), spending (such as household, dwelling investment and trade (exports and imports) and production (comparing industry performance). Other data includes household saving and the economic performance of States and Territories.  
The main use of the national accounts figures is as a historical record of economic performance. The information has little forward-looking value for currency, interest rate or share markets.  What are the implications for interest rates and investors?  
The national accounts data is backward looking. But the data is taken into account by the Reserve Bank, serving as a base for forecasts. The Reserve Bank uses six-month annualised growth figures to ascertain how the economy is travelling. And in that context growth annualises at around 3.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank had assumed growth of 3.25 percent in the June quarter.  
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Labour costs are falling, meaning that there probably hasn’t been a better time to be taking on staff. Inflation remains low but real wage gains are still occurring – wages are growing faster than prices. So there is also good news for consumers.  
Productivity calculations are more problematic. Hours worked in the market sector fell. But gross value added per hour worked market sector rose 1.5 per cent in the June quarter to be up a healthy 2.9 per cent over the year. Ideally you would like to see more employment and hours worked as well as higher output. As always, there is   scope for improvement.
GDP per capita continues to edge higher in real terms, indicating that our standard of living continues to rise. Perhaps growth is slower than in the past, but it is still rising.  
Should the Reserve Bank cut rates again?
There is nothing in the data to prevent the Reserve Bank cutting rates again. The debate to be had though is whether rate cuts at historically-low levels are actually still stimulative. The only real sign of inflation is the “ownership transfer costs” or costs associated with buying or selling a home – up 9.5 per cent over the year.  
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Happy 25th birthday Australian economy: CommSec's Craig James

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<div>In Britain the topical political and media talk is of whether an "Australian-style" points based immigration system should be introduced, without any real clarity about what that would mean in practice.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Back Down Under it's often said that Australia's population growth must slow if the economy isn't creating enough jobs. This is essentially true for 457 visas, but does overlook the potential underlying demand for other visa classes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I previously looked at the newly relaxed international student visa rules which were made effective from 1 July, easing the rules for parents and guardians of primary school age students in Australia. The recent election campaign also led to some potentially interesting shifts via proposed policies for...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Parent visa rules</div>
In 2016, the percentage of Australians born overseas hit its highest level in 120 years at a massive 28 per cent. 
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Immigration policies understandably prefer immigrants to be of the young, working (or creating jobs through business), and tax-paying demographic. Thus over the 2015/16 Migration Programme year, parent visa places were capped as follows:
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<ul>
<li>1,500 places allocated to Parent (non-contributory) visas </li>
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7,175 places allocated to Contributory Parent visas </li>
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<div>This means that your best chance of getting a parent visa in the last financial year was likely <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa/Fees" target="_blank">to pay</a> the prohibitive A$47,000 for a contributory visa - about A$100,000 for a couple! - while successful sponsorship for standard parent visas was extremely hard to come by. </div>
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<div>The unattractive alternative for parents wanting to join their families in Australia was to come in on a one year visitor visa, then leave the country for six months on each occasion. It would be a sore test of anyone's resolve to repeat this process over any meaningful period of time! </div>
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With some 6.8 million Australians having been born overseas the potential demand for parent visas is massive and growing, particularly from China and India.  I wouldn't believe anything a politician told me these days, but Google trends activity shows that there has been an explosion of interest in parent visas since the last full Census in 2011.
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It's worth noting that previous rules weren't favourable to Chinese families, due to China's one child policy meaning that most parents naturally had only one child in Australia, which was an obvious mathematical hindrance in proving that the balance of your family lived here.  As at 30 June 2016 due to the caps there were 38,770 persons in the queue for standard parent visas (up 59 percent from last year), and another 5,160 persons for aged parent visas (up 28 percent). 
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<div><a href="/images/2016/09/06/Parent.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/09/06/Parent.jpg" alt=""></div>
 
<div>With standard parent visas presently capped at 1,500 per year, a queue of this size at 30 June equated to a ridiculous 25.8 year average wait time for an application to be processed. </div>
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<div>Election pledges</div>
<div> </div>
<div>During a keenly contested election campaign the Australian Labor Party (ALP) announced plans to extend visitor visas to parents out to a far more palatable three years - with parents only being required to leave the country for four weeks at the end of each visa term and paying a $5,000 bond to ensure cover for medical and social services. Surely a potential vote-winner for the ALP in the rapidly growing migrant communities, particularly in an era where so many young families also strive to be dual-income households. </div>
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<div>As tends to be the way of these things, the Coalition's knee-jerk response was to announce a new parent visa plan itself, especially aimed at Chinese and Indian visitors (provided that new arrivals pay for health insurance and don't rely on the welfare state for health care, shamelessly piggybacking from the ALP proposals!) and allowing for continuous five year visitor visas. </div>
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<div>Given that the number of overseas born Aussies is soon to pass 7 million, such a policy could potentially lead to hundreds of thousands of applicants for visitor visas from parents sponsored by Australian citizens, largely from ageing, non-English speakers hailing from Asia (which is not really the ideal target demographic for policy makers). For this reason the Coalition's proposed policy denotes that parents of Australian citizens and permanent residents who have lodged a permanent parental visa application "may" be issued a five year visa "on a case-by-case basis". </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, this is an 'out'. Minister Dutton has the discretion to limit the number of visas issued and retains the right for policy to change course henceforth. </div>
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<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At this juncture there appears to be very little clarity surrounding what will happen with respect to parent visas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Coalition probably doesn't know the answer itself, election pledges doubtless being dreamed up on the hoof in response to the ALP's evidently popular proposal. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A point here relevant to the property markets is that if Australia does end up with an oversupply of thousands of apartments as many have forecast, there are levers that can be pulled to loosen immigration policies.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, a sceptic would say that if there's a policy that's always guaranteed to garner support from governing parties of either persuasion, it's one aimed at propping up ailing capital city housing markets. </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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