Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Economy

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It is difficult to be negative about the economy when data shows that there were more new vehicles sold in 2016 than any calendar year before.
And it is not just so-called ‘standard’ vehicles being sold, but sports/luxury vehicles are taking a bigger share of total sales.
It’s not hard to see why people are updating their rides.
Car affordability is at the best levels recorded, employment is rising, interest rates are at record lows and wealth levels are at record highs.
Car affordability is even stronger when you consider that vehicles built in 2016 are far superior to those sold in the early 1970s.
Vehicle sales should remain solid in 2017. Interest rates are unlikely to rise any time soon and car manufacturers are competing hard for business, restraining prices.
In addition, all indications point to firm conditions in the job market.
The area to watch is the housing market as softer home prices could restrain car buying enthusiasm - although even that seems to be an unlikely outcome.
The services sector expansion is now accelerating at a healthy pace. In fact the Performance of Services index is now showing the fastest pace of expansion in almost 10 years.
And more importantly the resurgence in activity is broad-based with all five components of the index recording strong gains.
In particular the lift in new orders and the employment sub-indices bode well for hiring in coming months.
It was interesting that respondents noted a variety of reasons for the lift in service sector activity - from stronger customer demand, a lift in mining sector activity, to a lower Australian dollar and “good agricultural harvests”.
As we have been saying for a couple of months, the result mirrors the lift in activity noted across internal Commonwealth Bank Indicators like the Business Sales Indicator.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/05/CS-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/05/CS-1.jpg" alt="">
The Reserve Bank will be quietly confident on how the economy is panning out.
The key will be how non-mining business investment evolves over the next six months. CommSec expects no change to interest rates over 2017.
According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), new motor vehicle sales totalled 98,763 in December, down 0.9 per cent on a year ago.
In 2016, a total of 1,178,133 new vehicles were sold – a record for a calendar year.
Sales by State: NSW (397,563), Victoria (326,269), Queensland (233,026), Western Australia (100,234), South Australia (71,738), Tasmania (19,751), ACT (18,816) and NT (10,736).
Respective market shares by vehicle type were: passenger (41.3 per cent), SUV (37.4 per cent), light commercial (18.5 per cent), and heavy commercial (2.8 per cent).
The top-five segments by volume were small cars (224,450, down 4 per cent), medium SUV (172,194, up 16.5 per cent), 4×4 ute (146,820, up 10 per cent), large SUV (142,495, up 2 per cent) and small SUV (110,414, up 2 per cent).
The sub-total of sales by buyer type for 2016 was: private (571,544, down 7 per cent), business (472,156, up 13 per cent), government (40,989, down 1.4 per cent) and rental (60,335, up 6 per cent).
Buyers using their ABN to buy a single car count as a business sale, while novated leases count as private.
Leading vehicle sources: Japan (325,689), Thailand (285,465), Korea (162,642), Germany (87,392) and Australia (87,096).
The top-selling vehicle was the Toyota HiLux, ahead of the Toyota Corolla, Hyundai i30, Ford Ranger, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, Holden Commodore, Mazda CX-5, Mitsubishi Triton and Hyundai Tucson.
Top makes for 2016: Toyota (14th year in succession) with 209,610 units (up 1.6 per cent), ahead of top full- importer Mazda (118,217, up 3.7 per cent) and Hyundai (101,555, down 0.4 per cent). Holden finished outside the top-three, in fourth place on 94,308 (down 8.4 per cent), holding out a resurgent Ford (81,207, up more than 15 per cent).
The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index lifted by 6.6 points to 57.7 in December – marking the highest result since May 2007.
AI Group notes “All five activity sub-indexes in the Australian PSI® were above 50 points and indicate expansion in December.
Sales jumped 14 points in December, up to 62.1 points from 48.1 in November.
New orders rose by 6.4 points to 60.4 points. Stocks lifted 5.7 points to 52.6 points, growing in ten out of the past eleven months.
The employment subindex picked up the pace, growing by 4.3 points to 56.6 points.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/05/CS-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/05/CS-2.jpg" alt="">
“A number of respondents to the Australian PSI® noted that conditions were more positive in December with: customer demand strengthening; increased orders from the mining sector; a lower value for the Australian dollar; interest rates remaining stable and (for regional services) good agricultural harvests.
Overall, there was a sense of increased confidence from respondents across many services sub-sector.”
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month.
The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.
The economy appears to be regaining momentum.
But as always more data is required to confirm the change in direction.
Certainly confidence levels are healthy, providing optimism early in the New Year.
The Reserve Bank is comfortably on the interest rate sidelines.
Savanth Sebastian is a senior economist for CommSec.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Difficult to be negative after record car sales in 2016: Savanth Sebastian

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Carol Schwartz has been appointed to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board, replacing Heather Ridout.
She describes herself as "a dove with a hawk's wings" when it comes to prioritising economic growth and inflation.
"It's a balance, isn't it," Schwartz said in an interview with Bloomberg.
"You have to be very careful about growth, you always have to have an eye for growth. But at the same time, obviously, inflation has an impact that one has to be incredibly aware of."
Schwartz, with a background in property and retail, will commence a five-year term from mid-February.
Schwartz has previously served as a non-executive director of the Bank of Melbourne, the chair of Industry Superannuation Property Trust and as national president of the Property Council of Australia.
Three of the RBA's nine board members are women.
Schwartz said the real estate industry must always be "vigilant" about the outlook: "Looking out for signs of overheating as well as looking out for signs of great opportunity.
"The property market always has pockets of opportunity, but at the same time one needs to be aware of those areas where things may be overheating and take a step backwards."
"The economy is patchy," Schwartz said, when asked for her take on it.
"As it always is. You've always got areas that are doing well and areas that aren't doing so well, and periods of time even in one year, particularly in retail where you might have several good months and then unexpectedly several bad months. And there are a lot of factors that impact on that."
Her current directorships include Stockland, Qualitas Property Partners and Trawalla Group.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Carol Schwartz joins RBA board

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GUEST OBSERVER
The economy contracted by 0.5 percent in the September quarter after an upwardly-revised 0.6 percent increase in the June quarter (previously up 0.5 percent).
The Aussie dollar fell half a cent in response. It was the first contraction in the economy for 5½ years.  
Annual economic growth slowed from 3.1 percent to 1.8 percent.
Contribution to growth: The biggest contribution to growth came from household investment (+0.3 percentage points) followed by inventories (+0.1pp). The biggest drag on growth was public investment (-0.5pp) followed by net exports (-0.2pp) and dwelling investment, ownership transfer costs and commercial construction (all -0.1pp)
Income: Real gross national income rose by 0.9 percent in the September quarter to be up 3.2 percent on the year. In nominal terms GDP lifted 0.5 percent in the quarter and rose by 3.0 percent over the year.
Productivity: Gross value added per hours worked in the market sector fell by 0.8 percent in the September quarter after rising by 1.7 percent in the June quarter. Annual growth was 0.7 percent.
Industry sectors: Eleven of the 19 industry sectors expanded in the September quarter. The strongest sector was Agriculture, forestry and fishing, up 7.5 percent and adding 0.2 percentage points (pp) to growth. Finance and insurance services added 0.1pp. The Construction sector fell by 3.6 percent in the quarter (-0.3pp). Mining, “Other services” and Rental, hiring and real estate services all took 0.1pp off growth.
What does it all mean?
This will turn out to be just a blip on the radar screen, but a very important blip. Many Australians have become complacent. And that includes businesses and politicians. The only way the economy can grow is by Australians spending, investing and employing. Australians didn’t do this in the September quarter. The Reserve Bank has been intimating for some time, monetary policy is reaching its limits. Infrastructure spending may prove useful in coming quarters in providing fresh momentum to the economy.
In the September quarter the economy was hit by a perfect storm. Not only was there the reaction to the UK ‘Brexit’ vote, there was also the Federal election and then there was the uncertainty about the US elections. And clearly, when there is a lot of uncertainty around, consumers and businesses tend to delay decisions to spend, invest and employ. A big fall in public investment also accounted for the bulk of the contraction of activity in the quarter.
While spending measures of the economy were weak in the September quarter, income measures were actually quite strong. And the farm sector was also strong in the quarter and should also be a key contributor to growth in coming quarters. For those who may have forgotten after 25 years of consistent economic growth, a ‘technical recession’ involves two consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy. We don’t believe there are grounds for another quarter of contraction. And indeed it would be amazing if there was some variant of ‘recession’ with a jobless rate of 5.6 per cent.
The Reserve Bank is always looking ahead and so must we. The outlook for the economy remains bright with record home building, a record winter crop, unemployment at 3½-year lows and super-low interest rates. Already the data for the December quarter has been more upbeat including retail spending and job ads.
The Reserve Bank warned yesterday that annual economic growth would slow before it picked up in 2017. That is our expectation also. The economy should grow near its ‘potential’ rate of 3 per cent in 2017. We continue to believe that interest rates will remain on hold in coming months. But no one will be thinking of rate hikes any time soon.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Economy shrinks, wake-up call for Australia: CommSec's Craig James

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<div>The Australian National Accounts recorded that real GDP growth came in at a seasonally adjusted -0.5 percent for the third quarter and +1.8 percent for the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oops.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was the first negative quarterly result for GDP since the Queensland flood-affected quarter of March 2011, and only the fourth such result since Australia's last recession in 1991. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With a negative contribution of -0.2ppts net exports were a drag on growth this time around, and there was a big drop in public capital expenditure (for a contribution of -0.5ppts) after a surge of government investment last quarter, summarily in helicopters, healthcare, and hepatitis drugs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Household consumption contributed 0.3ppts to growth this quarter, but there wasn't much joy elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
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<div>With downward revisions to previous quarters, this takes annual GDP growth all the way down to +1.8 percent. </div>
<a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div>Nominal GDP fared somewhat better, growing by +0.5 percent in the quarter, and by +3 percent over the year.</div>
Income boost
<div>It's often been pointed out that in a country such as Australia with its volatile bulk commodity prices, real GDP isn't always an ideal measure of how things are tracking. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this quarter, for example, there was a large +4.4 percent jump in the terms of trade, meaning that the index is now up by +1.4 percent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that the terms of trade index has been falling since Q3 2011, this is hugely welcome news!</div>
<a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div>Behind the scenes, of course, commodity export volumes have been ramping up over time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while real GDP contracted, real gross national income, real gross disposable income and real net national disposable income all rose to record highs in the September quarter, and we can expect to see further gains in Q4. </div>
<a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> 
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<div>In real terms, gross national income increased by +0.9 percent over the quarter and +3.2 percent over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially, then, this this quarter has been the mirror image of the dynamics we've seen in previous quarters, shifting to strong income growth and weaker GDP growth.</div>
<div>Two-speed</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Research by SGS Economics and Planning has shown that Sydney and Melbourne have beendominating economic growth, while many regional economies are presently running slower as they adjust to life post-resources boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>State final demand was very weak in Western Australia at -3.8 percent as capex continues to work through its decline. </div>
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<div><img src="/images/2016/12/08/GDP4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the industry level, construction was the biggest loser, contracting by -3.6 percent, and swiping some -0.3ppts from GDP growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Compensation of employees grew by +1.3 percent over the quarter and a positive +3.1 percent over the year, while the household savings ratio ticked down to 6.3 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the impact on household incomes and expenditure in a separate post. </div>
The wrap
After 100 consecutive quarters without a recession, the economy posted a negative GDP result for the third quarter, but real national income measures surged to a record high.   
<div>Whether or not we experience a technical recession next quarter is open for debate, but it looks to be unlikely based on the recent growth in retail spend. </div>
<div>
 Overall, strong public investment figures in the first half of the year masked a softening underlying trend in growth in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>An annual GDP growth figure of +1.8 percent feels much more in line with the metrics we've seen elsewhere, including low employment and wages growth, soft inflation, and a budget in deficit. </div>
<div>
 If hours worked are said to be the best measure of the health of the economy, then the conclusion is clear: the economy stuttered in the first half of 2016, although there was at least a moderate improvement of +0.5 percent in Q3. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>In the face of an obviously weaker result, a key question for the government now is whether it uses low yields to borrow and invest in infrastructure, as the Reserve Bank doesn't sound particularly keen on cutting the cash rate too much further!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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A recession looks unlikely: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian third quarter GDP data was very weak, declining by 0.5 percent, missing consensus estimates for a 0.1 percent fall. 
Annual GDP growth has now declined to 1.8 percent, the lowest level since March 2009. All components of GDP were weak in the September quarter and the key points are:
Soft-ish consumer spending growth (up by 0.4 percent over the quarter resulting in a contribution of just 0.3 percentage points to quarterly GDP growth) as evidenced by poor retail sales outcomes over the quarter, although this may have been impacted by election uncertainty and poor weather;
A fall in dwelling investment (-1.4 percent qoq or a 0.1 percent point detraction), but this follows a few quarters of very strong growth;
A marginal lift in private business investment (+0.1 percent or a flat contribution), with a rise in machinery and equipment investment offsetting  a 1.3 percent qoq fall in non-residential construction as the slump in mining investment continues to impact. However, underlying private investment was actually weaker with the headline being boosted as a large asset transfer from the private to the public sector in the June quarter washed through;
A large decline in public spending (-2.4 percent qoq or a 0.6 percent point detraction) with headline government investment looking particularly low because of the asset transfer in the June quarter. Even adjusting for theasset transfer, public spending was still low in the September quarter;
<ul>
<li>A small contribution from total inventories (+0.1% point contribution to growth); and</li>
<li>A small detraction from net exports (-0.2% point detraction from growth) with import volume growth stronger than export volumes.</li>
</ul>
<a href="/images/2016/12/08/image004.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/08/image004.png" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital  
This is only the fourth quarter of GDP contraction since the last recession ended in 1991 – with the last three being in the December quarter 2000 (after the introduction of the GST), December quarter 2008 (the GFC) and March quarter 2011 (mainly because of a hiccup in exports). 
<a href="/images/2016/12/08/image005.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/08/image005.png" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital 
While the GDP contraction in the September quarter will no doubt invite talk of a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of falling GDP) growth is likely to bounce back in the December quarter avoiding a recession so there is no reason to get too gloomy. 
A lot of the factors which drove the weak third quarter outcome will not repeat in the fourth quarter GDP numbers. Weak September quarter GDP partly looks like payback for stronger than expected GDP growth over the year to theJune quarter of 3.1 percent.
Looking forward, there is going to be a further ramp up in resource export volumes, non-residential building approvals are lifting considerably, mining investment is getting closer to a bottom, retail sales growth trends have picked up again, there is still a lot more dwelling construction in the pipeline, state government budgets indicate a lift in public investment and the rebound in commodity prices with the terms of trade up 4.5 percent in the September quarter tells us that the income recession in Australia is over.
So we expect GDP growth to lift back to around a 2.5 percent pace in the current quarter and through 2017. 
The Australian dollar has remained surprisingly resilient on the poor data, dropping from 0.7465 to around 0.7430 and the share market actually rose 0.2% at the time of writing – indicating that markets also expect growth to bounce back. 
But despite our expectation that recession will be avoided and that growth will bounce back, growth is still likely to be fragile and constrained. In an ideal world now would be a time for some fiscal stimulus focussed on infrastructure spending. But with public debt well up from pre GFC levels and the Government focussed on reducing the budget deficit and the (increasingly difficult) task of maintaining Australia’s AAA credit rating this looks unlikely.  
As such the pressure is likely to remain on the RBA. With the RBA likely to reduce its circa 3 percent growth forecasts and further delay the expected return of inflation to its 2-3 percent target in its February Monetary Statement we remain of theview that it will cut rates again next year. The need to offset increases in bank mortgage rates that are being driven up by the rise in global bond yields and the desire to push the $A lower are additional reasons to expect further RBA monetary easing.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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The Australian economy hits an air pocket - but recession unlikely: Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
Here are the six standout charts over the past week covering home prices, Australian All Ordinaries Accumulation index, business investment, planned business investment, Nymex oil price and US 10-year bond yields.
<a href="/images/2016/12/05/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-05%20at%201.06.56%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/05/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-05%20at%201.06.56%20PM.png" alt="" width="760" height="500">
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<img src="/images/2016/12/05/Screen%20Shot%202016-12-05%20at%201.07.06%20PM.png" alt="" width="654" height="214">
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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The six standout charts for this week: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Despite the well publicised closure of some manufacturing sectors in Australia, manufacturing isn’t dying.
Instead, like industry around the world, it’s undergoing a period of significant change as new, disruptive technologies and economic realities take hold and new markets emerge.
There is a role for the manufacturing sector in Australia. Through interviews with 56 stakeholders, three workshops and a survey of industry and government organisations, as well as leading researchers, CSIRO identified major growth opportunities and what the manufacturing sector needs to do to achieve them.
Currently Australian manufacturing contributes 6.05% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exports A$96.1 billion of goods and employs 856,000 people. This has fallen from a high in 1995, when it contributed to 14% of GDP and employed more than a million people. 
High wages, geographical remoteness and a small dispersed local market are some of the reasons for these changes. However consumers are also changing what products they buy which then impacts the type of products made.
Major companies like Boeing and General Electric now look to the world using global supply chains for components for their final product, so Australia has to compete globally. 
The innovation resulting from science and technology, such as automation, digitisation and new materials, has changed the equation of what it means to be a manufacturer. Manufacturing is no longer a basic industry that employs low-skilled workers.
Over the next 20 years, Australia’s manufacturing industry must transform into a highly-integrated, collaborative and export-focused “ecosystem” that provides high-value customised solutions contributing to global supply chains.
Our research brought up some exciting examples of Australian companies that have already embraced this evolution, setting a standard to follow.
<h2>Customised high-margin solutions</h2>
We found that demand for more expensive bespoke products is replacing mass-produced products relying on value from producing a lot for the market. New materials, automation, biotechnology and new chemical processes have driven this innovation in manufacturing. 
These new technologies enable a new level of customisation. Products like personalised medical implants and functional foods and clothing are already possible thanks to the combination of design services and superior components (such as 3D printing).
Small to medium enterprises (SMEs) make up 97% of Australia businesses. So customisation is an ideal recipe for Australian SMEs to achieve global reach without the need for producing more goods than their competitors.
An example of an Australian company doing this well is Oventus. They produce an O2Vent mouthpiece for those that suffer sleep apnoea. Oventus uses a 3D scanner to map a patient’s mouth, then 3D prints a custom-made mouthpiece that helps stop dangerous pauses in sleep at night. Its custom fit and relative comfort attract a price premium. The company recently listed on the Australian stock exchange and is about to go global.
<h2>Collaboration</h2>
Too often Australian manufacturers focus on the rival across the street, rather than the looming competition over the horizon.
Our research shows manufacturers need to partner among themselves, either through business partnerships or increased collaboration. Nautitech and Northern Light Technologies Australia, for example, were brought together by a mining company to improve underground communications. 
These two companies combined hardware from one company and software from the other to provide mobile Wi-Fi coverage for mine sites. It allows miners to monitor worker safety, fleet optimisation, machine performance and also allows autonomous mining and productivity improvements. 
<h2>Global supply chain integration</h2>
In a global marketplace, Australia cannot stand on its own. The Australian market alone is too small - our population is the size of Shanghai, China. 
Australia has few multinational companies manufacturing here. However multinational companies do source components from the best suppliers globally and herein lies the opportunity for Australia.
For example, manufacturer ANCA Tools delivers specifically designed parts to Japan. These parts are made using the company’s multi-axis grinding machines. 
These machines, designed and built in Australia, are automated and wired up for flexible and precision manufacturing. The components are integrated into Japanese customers’ unmanned, factory-wide automated production systems.
Manufacturers need to integrate into international supply chains; using Australia’s advanced technology industry and research sector, to stand out from the crowd. One example of this highlighted from our research is Carbon Revolution, a company that pioneered the commercial production of carbon composite car wheels. These wheels are made from a single piece of material. 
Carbon Revolution is supplying Ford with wheels for the Mustang Shelby GT350R, making it the first company in the world to supply mass produced carbon fibre wheels on standard equipment for a major automaker.
The wheels weigh up to 50% less than conventional aluminium equivalents and reduce carbon emissions by up to 6%. Carbon Revolution is now investigating opportunities in aerospace and industrial markets.
<h2>Increased role for the research sector</h2>
Australia’s research sector can play a critical role in the future of Australian manufacturing, providing the significant technological innovation needed to drive future prosperity.
Publicly funded research agencies in Australia are already building stronger industry engagement. In our research, Australian manufacturers have identified the science and technology gaps that need filling. 
These companies want to use research results to be able to differentiate, make manufacturing processes more efficient, monitor in real time and drive decision making with data. Australian research institutions need to adapt to these demands.
The establishment of open access hubs such as Lab22, the Australian National Fabrication Facilities (ANFF), industry collaboration spaces in research organisations, researchers in business, industry PhDs and internships are all examples of initiatives to link the research and manufacturing sectors.
Australia has a high level of education, an excellent research sector, vast natural resources, a reputation for quality, keen SMEs and close proximity to a burgeoning Asia. The strengths far outweigh the weaknesses.
Cathy Foley is deputy director and Science Director Manufacturing Flagship CSIRO, and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cathy-foley-1066" target="_blank">here</a>.
Keith McLean is director, CSIRO Manufacturing, CSIRO and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/keith-mclean-318305" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The Australian manufacturing industry is not dying, it’s evolving: CSIRO study

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On August 22, I wrote a note in which I concluded:
<ol>
<li>Record low interest rates have not been effective in stimulating investment to close the savings/investment imbalance. A change in policy from governments on infrastructure and structural reform is urgently required. 
</li>
<li>Central banks are exacerbating the imbalance with (quantitative easing (QE) policies. With these policies now generating negative yields and pressuring the banking system while sending confusing signals on risk free rates there is an urgent need for these policies to be reviewed and abandoned.} 
</li>
<li>When these QE policies are finally abandoned, as they surely must be, there will be a huge re-pricing of risk free assets with rates heading in the direction of nominal GDP growth, although the pace of this adjustment will still depend on the other progress which governments have made in closing the savings/ investment imbalance.</li>
</ol>
At that time the US 10 year bond rate was 1.54% while the Australian 10 year bond rate was 1.9%. Today these rates stand at 2.35% and 2.75% respectively.
I nominated nominal GDP growth in the US at around 4% (2% real growth and 2% inflation).
The US bond rate has risen about a third of the way towards what I would call that “equilibrium” despite no clear progress on lifting investment although, of course, markets are pre-emptive.
In the period 1992-2002 when we had more of an alignment between savings and investment, and bond rates were broadly in line with nominal GDP growth, we saw that investment in the US was growing at around 8% compared to the average growth rate in recent years of around zero.
The recent rise in bond rates can be considered in two periods – before and after the Presidential election.
The US bond rate started to rise from around late September from 1.55% to reach 1.85% on the eve of the US presidential election.
A key catalyst for that move was a change in tone from both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In the case of Japan policy was adjusted to target a level of the 10 year Japanese Government Bond (0%) rather than continuing to expand the balance sheet.
In the case of the ECB, prospects of further increasing the €80 billion of monthly asset purchases took a downturn and while there is no signal from the Board that tapering is imminent the debate around the effectiveness of QE and negative interest rates has been vigorous both in the market and amongst the officials.
Finally, I expect that markets believed that whoever was elected to the presidency we would see a measure of fiscal stimulus.
Since the election of Mr Trump, the US 10 year Treasury bond rate has risen from 1.85% to 2.35% - the total increase in bond rates, from the lows (80 basis points), represents about a third of the move towards my “equilibrium” target of 4% (250 basis points). As we expect with markets, this adjustment has occurred purely through a change in expectations. I would not expect this to progress much further until we see concrete evidence around progress on infrastructure and reform.
So what else in my “wish list” apart from a significant change in ECB and BOJ approaches has occurred?
The second part of the “wish list” was “change in policy from governments on infrastructure and structural reform”.
Do Mr Trump’s policies provide some comfort in that direction?
Recall that the first policy he referred to in his acceptance speech was to “rebuild” America. Given my emphasis on the need for aggressive infrastructure investment to lightening rod the US economy out of secular stagnation, I was impressed.
Until I looked into the details of his infrastructure policy. The current policy is to invest US$1 trillion (around 5% of GDP) in public infrastructure, over 10 years, with 85% to be financed from the private sector. Unless his team is aware of a massive list of public assets that could be privatised with the funds being used to finance the road/bridge/inner city spend, this policy is likely to fail due to a lack of support from the private sector.
My view is that he needs to redirect a large amount of the tax package towards direct infrastructure investment. The current tax package, which includes reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%, is estimated to cost (according to the <a href="https://crfb.org/donald-trump" target="_blank">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a>) around US$5-6 trillion over 10 years. The corporate component is around 75% of the total package cost with the remainder representing the cost of lowering personal tax rates. But the <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-tax-plan/full" target="_blank">Tax Policy Centre estimates</a> that 47% of the benefits of the personal cuts will go to the top 1% of income earners.
The starting point for the total government debt position also threatens the tax package. When Reagan adopted his “supply side” economic policies, government debt stood at 24% of GDP compared to 78% today. The tax package could lift debt to around 110% of GDP over the next 10 years.
So my view on policy as it stands is that a much larger and realistic infrastructure package needs to be embraced at the expense of a significantly more modest tax package.
What about reform?
Reform is required to convince businesses that growth is in prospect and therefore investment should be lifted.
US firms pay US taxes on income generated anywhere in the world while allowing the firms to defer tax on these earnings by keeping the money offshore. Trump has considered offering companies a window tax “holiday” to repatriate some of the $2 trillion held outside the US. Such reform would 'spark' new investment if firms anticipated stronger growth in the US. An angle might be to 'link' the tax savings to the proposed private funding of infrastructure.
Currently there is some market belief in his claim to “clean up regulation”, with the unwinding of Dodd-Frank (a complex banking regulation) being the most comprehensive. Policies to unwind excessive regulation and some early successes in that regard will be just as crucial as a much more aggressive infrastructure policy to lift confidence in growth prospects.
The moderated approach to QE and negative interest rates by the ECB and BOJ started the move away from unrealistically low rates.
The emphasis in the Trump rhetoric on infrastructure and reform has been a very welcome development. However, at this stage, Trump’s policies do not signal a clear commitment to infrastructure and there does not appear to be a list of “achievable” reform initiatives.
Markets and firms will need to see clear evidence of Trump’s ability to implement ambitious policies before I could declare that we are on a steady path towards equilibrium and 4% bond rates.
Bill Evans is chief economist at Westpac.
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Trump needs to find balance between infrastructure and tax priorities: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia has a new “two-speed” economy that comprises: (i) NSW and Victoria (driven largely by Sydney and Melbourne); and (ii) the rest of Australia.
The size and relative strength of the NSW and Victorian economies means that economic data presented at the national level is masking weakness throughout the rest of Australia.
Economic activity in NSW and Victoria, along with strong dwelling price growth in Sydney and Melbourne, is likely to see the RBA sit on the sidelines. But the rest of Australia could probably do with more policy easing. 
<a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.22.22%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.22.22%20AM.png" alt="">
During the mining investment boom it was fashionable to talk about Australia’s “two- speed” economy. Surging commodity prices drove a spectacular lift in activity in the resources sector that sent the WA, QLD and NT economies into full blown growth mode.
<a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.23.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.23.31%20AM.png" alt="">
Meanwhile, relatively high interest rates (compared to other advanced economies) and a strong AUD weighed heavily on the rest of Australia. As such, the term “two-speed” was coined to characterise the Australian economy. 
Fast forward some six years and Australia yet again finds itself with a “two-speed” economy. But this time it’s NSW and Victoria that are driving demand and employment growth while the rest of Australia is feeling the pinch (chart 1). In fact, it’s largely Sydney and Melbourne propping up national outcomes.
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Capacity utilisation is high in Australia’s two largest cities and demand growth is strong, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates. As a result, the NSW and Victorian economies have performed much better than the rest of Australia. 
The big influence that NSW and Victoria have on the national figures means that pretty soft conditions throughout the rest of Australia have flown under the radar. In fact, economic outcomes in most regions of Australia are probably weaker than the national figures are suggesting unless you’re in Sydney or Melbourne. There are some exceptions, notably the ACT, but the generalisation holds for most places. 
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In this note we look at how the Australian economy is faring on the new “two-speed” basis. We slice the economy into two pieces – (i) NSW &amp; Victoria (termed VicNSW); and (ii) the rest of Australia (termed ROA). For dwelling prices that are published on a capital city basis we split the data between Sydney &amp; Melbourne (SydMel) and the remaining capital cities (ROA). Basically we are trying gauge how the rest of the Australian economy is going when you strip out NSW and Victoria (or Sydney and Melbourne). Of course, it can be argued that if you exclude the strongest parts then all you are left with is the weakest bits. But that is precisely the point. We want to better understand how the rest of the Australian economy is going outside of NSW and Victoria. 
The numbers – setting the scene.
To understand what we are analysing it makes sense to briefly look at the size of our two pieces. By Gross State Product (GSP), which is effectively output, NSW is worth 32% of the national pie and Victoria 221⁄2%. So our VicNSW economy is worth 541⁄2% of the national economy which leaves the ROA comprising 451⁄2% (chart 2). By population, NSW has 32% of Australia’s residents and Victoria clocks in at 25%. This leaves 43% of people residing in the ROA. By capital city, 64% of people who live in NSW are in Sydney and 75% of Victoria’s residents are in Melbourne. For the ROA, 62% of people are in the capital cities (chart 3). So our VicNSW and ROA split 
Population growth
We kick off with population growth because it heavily influences aggregate growth rates like output and employment. The latest figures show that in the year to QI 2016, population growth in VicNSW was running at 1.6% while it was growing at 1.1% for the ROA (charts 4 and 5). This is a material difference. It largely reflects two forces (i) interstate migration, in particular from WA and SA to Victoria due to a lack of job opportunities; and (ii) a significant proportion of overseas migrants settling in either Sydney or Melbourne.
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We need to keep the population growth rates of VicNSW and ROA in mind when looking at the economic data because the ROA is at a “handicap” of about 0.5%pa. Put another way, if the ROA is clocking in at 0.5%pa less than VicNSW for growth rates then performance per capita is effectively the same. We consider this to be important because differing population growth rates can give a misleading impression of economic performance. And per capita measures are a better barometer for gauging changes in living standards (see here). As our analysis shows, even accounting for the 0.5%pa difference in population growth, VicNSW is performing far better than the ROA. 
State Final Demand
State Final Demand (SFD) is basically the sum of household and government expenditure and investment. It does not include exports and is therefore a better measure of demand (i.e. the total value of goods and services that are sold domestically) than GSP which includes exports.
The data shows that demand growth has been strong in VicNSW while it has been contracting throughout the ROA since mid-2014 (chart 6). The decline in SFD throughout the ROA reflects falling business investment and weak consumption growth. SFD has been hit particularly hard in the mining regions of WA, QLD and NT where investment in the resources sector has fallen sharply (chart 7). SFD growth has been tepid in SA and Tas leaving the ACT as the only bright spot. All up, demand growth in the ROA is consistent with very soft economies.
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Strong demand growth in VicNSW has been assisted by the positive wealth effect from rising dwelling prices. Higher asset prices have supported household consumption growth and dwelling investment in Australia’s two largest states. These two economies did not experience a downturn in mining investment and were able to benefit from both the fall in interest rates and the AUD. 
Employment growth
There is plenty of evidence of our new “two-speed” economy in the labour market data. Jobs growth has slowed nationally. But the slowdown in jobs growth for the ROA has been sharp. In fact, there has been a contraction in the level of employment for the ROA through the year to October (chart 8). The number of people working in the ROA has fallen by 40k over the past year. The reality is that jobs growth in Australia has been driven by NSW and Victoria over the past year. For the ROA, the labour market is incredibly weak. In some states, conditions in the labour market are commensurate with a recession, particularly WA (chart 9). 
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Unemployment rate
The national unemployment rate has been trending down over the past year thanks to a decline in participation. But when we look at the economy through our “two- speed” lens it becomes apparent that the unemployment rate for the ROA has been stuck above 6% for two years (chart 10). It has basically trended sideways since mid-2015 while the unemployment rate has been falling in VicNSW. A disappointing story for the ROA which reflects a decline in the level of employment offset by a fall in participation. 
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Of course new jobs have been “created” in the jurisdictions that comprise ROA. But there have also been a lot of job losses, primarily in the mining and manufacturing sectors. To be fair to our Territories, the unemployment rate is low in the ACT and NT. But it’s well above the level associated with full employment (considered to be around 5%) in QLD, SA, WA and Tasmania (chart 11).
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In our view, the jobless rate for the ROA is likely to sit a touch above 6.0% over the next six months. It will continue to be a different story in VicNSW and we see the unemployment rate holding at around 51⁄4%. A big lift in public investment in NSW should keep the unemployment rate anchored around 5%. 
It’s worth noting here that the unemployment rate is not proving as useful as usual to determine the amount of slack in the labour market. That’s because underemployment has bene rising while the unemployment rate has been falling due to the casualisation of the workforce (see here). As a result, wages growth has been easing.  
Business investment 
Investment in VicNSW has trended up recently because of a lift in capex in NSW. But for the ROA business investment is down 17.2% through the year to QII 2016 (chart 12). The big decline has been driven by a huge fall in spending in QLD and WA because of the downturn in mining capex. There has also been a decline in capex in SA, Tas, and NT. For the ROA, only the ACT has posted a lift in business investment. This is a pretty poor result considering the stimulus that has come through from lower interest rates and a lower AUD. It should be a concern to policymakers.
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We expect business investment to continue to decline in the ROA as resource related projects are completed. The pace of the downturn, however, will start to slow as the worst of the downturn in mining capex is now behind us. The outlook for the non- mining part of the economy remains mixed. Our forecasts have non-mining capex lifting a little over 2016/17 which should see VicNSW post a further modest lift in business investment. 
Dwelling Prices
National dwelling prices have risen substantially over the past 31⁄2 years. But the data shows that the lift in dwelling prices has largely been a Sydney and Melbourne story (chart 13). Demand for housing has been strong in Australia’s two largest cities, driven by a variety of factors which include: (i) interest rate cuts; (ii) a high level of investor demand; (ii) foreign investment; (iii) strong population growth; and (iv) some supply issues (particularly in Sydney).
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For the ROA, however, dwelling price growth has been much more modest. In fact, dwelling prices have been falling for a few years in Perth (chart 14). Price rises in most of the other capital cities have been significantly lower than those in Sydney in Melbourne.
Commentators often make the mistake of generalising about dwelling prices in Australia and assume that the housing market is homogeneous. But the data shows that there is a significant divergence between price growth across Australia’s capital cities. 
Building approvals
Strong dwelling price growth in Sydney and Melbourne has translated into a big lift in building approvals, particularly for apartments. For the ROA, however, building approvals have eased. On a rolling annual total basis dwelling approvals are down 7.1%pa for the ROA (chart 15). There is a bit of a multispeed story for approvals in the ROA. There has been a big fall in approvals in WA as vacancy rates rise and dwelling prices fall. Approvals in QLD have actually been quite strong and a big lift in apartment supply will hit the Brisbane market over the next few years. But when we look at the ROA as a collective, dwelling investment will cool. For VicNSW, however, there is still a lot of residential construction in the pipeline. The supply response is welcome given the big lift in dwelling prices. 
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Are there implications for monetary policy?
The RBA has recently shifted from an implied easing bias to a neutral tone. And market pricing for a rate cut has receded (chart 16). We think the RBA’s reluctance to ease policy further is generally related to the strength of the NSW and Victorian economies, in particular the exceptionally strong housing markets of Sydney and 
Melbourne, and the lift in commodity prices. But the economic data suggests that the ROA could do with more policy easing.
Last week’s wages and employment data were weak. Normally, softness in the labour market and below-target inflation would imply that policy easing is forthcoming. A lower cash rate would, among other things, push the AUD down which would boost activity in Australia’s tradables sector. But clearly the RBA has a degree of discomfort at the strength of dwelling price growth in Sydney and Melbourne that has taken a near term rate cut off the table.
The lesson here is that the new “two-speed” economy means that current monetary policy settings are likely to be suboptimal for the ROA outside of Sydney and Melbourne. If the Sydney and Melbourne property markets stall or falter then policy easing will probably come back onto the agenda because the ROA could do with more stimulus. Of course that stimulus could also come via fiscal policy as we have previously argued (see here). But that’s a conversation for another day. 
Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Our new two-speed economy – how does it look? CBA's Gareth Aird

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69117/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The federal deficit will be worse in 2017-18 than predicted in the May budget, despite some easing in the delays imposed by the Senate, Deloitte Access Economics’ budget monitor predicts.
It also says the short-term business implications of a Trump presidency are likely to be smaller and slower than the headlines have suggested but in the longer term there may well be net negatives for the global and Australian economies.
The Deloitte assessment comes as the government starts the final parliamentary fortnight of the year, reasonably confident that it will get its industrial relations bills, which were the triggers for the double dissolution, passed.
In a gloomy outlook for the government’s core challenge of budget repair, Deloitte says: “There are challenges seen on almost every front: under-performance on wages and jobs is forecast to continue, we see shortfalls creeping back in on company tax, super may also fall shy, and GST may do the same.”
On current policy settings, Deloitte forecasts a deficit of A$29.9 billion in 2017-18, which is A$3.8 billion worse than budgeted.
“That says something simple: no, the tide isn’t turning,” Deloitte says.
It estimates a $40.5 billion deficit in 2016-17, $3.4 billion worse than budgeted, and a total blow out of $24 billion in the deficit over the forward estimates. 
The government will release its budget update on December 19.
Deloitte applies a reality check to the benefits of the boost in coal prices, which has seen contract prices going to $US200 a tonne and spot prices to more than $US300.
Coal “is dragging Australia out of the income recession we’ve juggled since late 2011. But King Coal also comes with some king-sized caveats.
"First, as many coal companies have been making losses, a switch to earning profits has a slower-than-usual impact on tax payments. Second, many of the factors that sent coal stratospheric are temporary, and most other commodity prices are more in line with budget assumptions.”
So a spike in national income would then ease back, according to the forecast.
It says both wages and jobs are likely to undershoot official forecasts. The tax take from individuals is predicted to fall short of the budget forecasts by A$1.3 billion in 2016-17 and by A$2 billion in 2017-18. In a break with recent trends, a minor shortfall in indirect tax of A$500 million is also forecast in 2017-18.
While the government has made some progress with measures in the Senate “the overall story on spending remains one of the continuing cost of failing to get a backlog of measures through parliament, topped up by a soupcon of new measures”.
Commenting on the Deloitte report, Treasurer Scott Morrison said the government would be adopting a cautious approach to commodity price assumptions in the budget update “and agrees with Deloitte that commodity price impacts are being offset by wages and inflation outcomes”.
“Deloitte also correctly identifies the need for more important savings measures to be passed by the parliament, that are opposed by Labor. This reinforces the position adopted by rating agencies who continue to watch our parliament to see whether they will support the government’s approved pathway to restore the budget to balance,” Morrison said.
Deloitte says that while the election of Trump was bigger news than Brexit, its shorter-term implications are likely to be less than the speculation.
“The US political system has remarkably strong checks and balances, and those checks and balances have increasingly solidified into gridlock over a number of years”, so presidents are rather less powerful than popular opinion believed.
On the other hand, there are Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, and presidential power is at its strongest on foreign policy – suggesting policy change is now more likely in some areas.
“Examples relevant to Australia include trade and climate change policy, and perhaps foreign policy more generally.
"On balance, we would recommend concentrating on the longer-term implications. In brief, we’d say that overall policy changes may well be net negatives for the global and Australian economies – especially trade- related developments and the increased potential geopolitical uncertainties. However, a number of those negatives will be years in the making.”
In Peru for APEC, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull continued to extol the virtues of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), despite it being apparently dead under a Trump administration.
He said Trump had “never said that he’s against free trade. He has criticised a number of agreements on the basis that they’re not good enough deals.
"It may well be that over time the TPP is re-embraced by the United States, by the Congress or indeed by the president, perhaps in the same form it is today, perhaps in a different form.
"The important thing is to maintain the commitment to the arrangements, the free trade, the open markets that are delivering jobs in Australia,” Turnbull said.
Observers are taking the fact the government is preparing to bring on the bills to tighten union governance and to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission in the Senate this fortnight as a sign that it thinks it can get them through. Previously Turnbull has said they would be brought forward “when we believe there is a majority that will support it and on terms that we will accept”.
Asked about this at the weekend Turnbull said that with the Senate “it’s a long game and we work away, we respect every single senator”. On Sunday Employment Minister Michaelia Cash was engaged in negotiations over the legislation.
Michelle Grattan is professorial fellow, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michelle-grattan-20316" target="_blank">here</a>.
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