Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Mortgages

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The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has issued tough draft guidelines on how it expects banks to monitor and manage home mortgage risks.
Upon <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/adi/PrudentialFramework/Pages/adi-consultation-packages.aspx" target="_blank">the release</a>, APRA chairman John Laker noted "increasing evidence of lending with higher risk characteristics and it does not want this trend to continue".
the current concern sits  against the backdrop where residential mortgage exposures have exhibited low default and loss rates in the $1.3 trillion Australian mortgage market. But the continued low interest rate environment has authorities concerned for when rates take off again.
Aimed at complacency among residential mortgage lenders, the draft guidelines still fall short of the stricker macro­-prudential rules adopted in recent times by other regulators especially in New Zealand and Canada.
But the draft guidelines suggest banks consider "geographic concentrations" of risky loans.
There might also be new limits on loans relative to incomes along with stronger stress-testing borrowers.
There is also the possibility of reducing financial incentives and commissions to mortgage brokers.
APRA chairman John Laker said credit standards were needed given “very active competition” between lenders and rising property markets.
The Australian Financial Review columnist Tony Boyd recently calculated that the net present value of annual commissions paid to mortgage brokers is about $600 million, based on brokers handling about half of the $28 billion in mortgages settled each month.
APRA suggests commissions paid upfront tend to encourage less rigorous attention to loan application quality. 
APRA has told the banks to review appropriate monitoring and controls “to guard against incentives to pursue loans with inadequate or false verification, marginal serviceability, excessive leverage or unsuitable terms for a borrower”.
In Australia, it is standard market practice to pay brokers either an upfront commission or a trailing commission, or both. 
"Experience has shown that commissions paid upfront tend to encourage less rigorous attention to loan application quality," the report said.
"Trailing commissions are more likely to provide incentives for brokers to retain and monitor customers. 
"A prudent approach to the use of third parties for residential mortgage lending would include appropriate compensation measures for brokers.
"Such measures include the ADI being able to end or claw back commissions where there are high levels of delinquency or process failures on loans originated by third parties."
The acting chief executive of the Australian Bankers’ Association, Diane Tate, said the industry had expected the new guidance.
APRA said it expected banks to closely monitor the share of new loans with high loan-to-valuation ratios (LVRs). While Australia has no caps on LVRs, it said those above 90% clearly exposed banks to a higher risk of losses.
‘‘Historically, residential mortgage exposures have exhibited low default and loss rates,” it said in the draft.
“However, lengthy periods of economic growth combined with low interest rates and a sustained period of rising house prices can create a sense of complacency among residential mortgage lenders.’’
APRA is taking industry feedback on the draft policy until late July.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Upfront mortgage broker commissions under review as APRA helps RBA on risky home lending standards

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Shares of Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia closed at a 13% premium after Australia’s biggest lenders mortgage insurer (LMI) made its public debut on the Australian Securities Exchange on Tuesday.
Genworth shares were priced at $2.65 but quicky rose to be at $2.96 in the first half-hour of trade yesterday.
Genworth’s $496 million float was the second-largest listing by value since 1 January, trailing last month’s $657 million Genesis Energy initial public offering.
Its prospectus reported Genworth Australia had been profitable for 46 of the past 48 years. 
The company is chaired by Richard Grellman.
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Genworth floats with 13% premium

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Mortgage insurer Genworth is set to list tomorrow on the Australian stock exchange after strong local and international equity interest, the second biggest initial public offering for the year to date. There was a $2.65 per share institutional price.
Genworth plans to list with a market capitalisation of around $1.72 billion. It has a 45% share of the lenders’ mortgage insurance (LMI) market in Australia, in an oligopoly as Genworth and the other main player, QBE LMI, have a combined share of around 78%.
Goldman Sachs and CBA Equities, Macquarie and UBS launched a book build last week following the decision of the US parent to sell down a 34% stake in its Australian subsidiary.
Genworth will raise about $750 million from the float, which was delayed two years ago, following heavy losses in the local LMI arm.
LMI covers lenders when borrowers default on their home loans. LMI is typically required by banks as a result of pressure from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and their own boards for risk mitigation when a borrower has less than 20% of the purchase price as a deposit.
Mortgage insurance covers the lender – usually banks – with Genworth the largest Australian provider, with more than 60% of its business coming from loans written by CBA, Westpac Banking Corporation and National Australia Bank.
Genworth said it expected to post a net profit of US$231 million ($248 million) for the year to 31 December, up from US$179 million in 2013.
But CLSA analyst Jan van der Schalk told the AFR the company produces an 11% return on equity, which is a “desperately poor return for a feast or famine business”.
Goldman Sachs has estimated a property price correction of 10% would have a pre-tax impact of $870 million over a two to three year period.
A hard landing for property prices – a fall of 30% – would have a pre-tax impact of $2.2 billion over two to three years.
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Genworth mortgage insurer set for ASX debut

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Luci Ellis, the head of the RBA's financial stability department, hopes Australians can see an upswing in housing prices in the larger metropolitian centres and say, ‘I don't have to buy into that. I don't have to stretch my finances’.
Not that Australian household finances are looking too stretched at the moment.
"And we'd like to see it stay that way," Luci Ellis said.
Her speech to the CITI Residential Housing Conference noted that the 15 years to 2005 saw housing prices rise noticeably faster than incomes.
"This was in large part a transition to a new equilibrium of lower inflation and interest rates, and thus higher debt and housing prices relative to incomes. That transition is over now. Housing prices are therefore going to be cycling around a slower trend than they did in the past. There will be more periods where prices are falling a little in absolute terms," she said.
The means that there was "less scope for rising markets to cover mistakes if you fall in love with a property and overpay for it".
"It means there is little room for another round of property exuberance of the type we saw just over a decade ago, in 2002 and 2003. Australia managed to have its housing boom end without a major disaster. Plenty of other countries weren't so lucky.
"Usually it's the property developers that are the source of loan defaults and financial instability, not the households with mortgages. But an overstretched household sector is hardly a good environment to have if something should go wrong elsewhere in the economy.
"That is why the Reserve Bank and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) have emphasised loan serviceability so much of late."
She commented that lenders had become more sophisticated in the ways they assess households' capacity to repay mortgage loans.
"Most of them have moved beyond a crude approach of applying a blanket repayment-to-income test, more likely to take people's actual living expenses into account, not just some version of the Henderson Poverty Line. After all, it doesn't seem reasonable to expect people to have a poverty-level lifestyle to pay off a million-dollar home.
"Importantly, lenders are now more likely to apply an add-on to current interest rates when calculating the repayment they use in their serviceability tests. 
"It's fair to say that serviceability calculations are binding for first home buyers and less binding for trade-up buyers and investors. So it's no surprise that as interest rates have fallen, it's the trade-up buyers and investors whose demand has increased.
"Meanwhile first home buyers will feel squeezed out. This is probably more a cyclical phenomenon than a structural one. It is still probably quite disheartening for potential first home buyers.
"As such, it would not be a good outcome if they responded by overstretching themselves to try to get into the market during upswings."
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Disheartened FHBs warned not to overstretch home loan borrowings: RBA's Luci Ellis

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Phil Naylor has announced his intentions to resign as the chief executive officer of the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia, taking effect 24 December.
No successor has been appointed after Naylor’s 12 years in the job.
After being at the Australian Retailers Association, he started in 2002 when the MFAA was known as the MIAA, a trade association with 2,200 members.
In 2006 the Mortgage Industry Association of Australia broadened its charter and changed its name to the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia.
The MFAA has almost 11,000 members.
He championed uniform broker legislation.
He said getting "the rogue mortgage broker off the front page of the news" as one of his most significant achievements by cleaning up the industry along with regulators.
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Phil Naylor to exit MFAA in December

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I am often asked how one can predict residential price growth. 
Well, the only way I know how – with any form of logic and indeed, accuracy – is based around borrowing capacity. 
Spare borrowing capacity by itself doesn’t automatically mean the prices will rise; nor does over-borrowing – in isolation – result in prices falling.   
But what often comes true is that if there is spare capacity in concert with tight supply, rising sales and improving buyer confidence, then prices often do rise.  Of course, the reverse also applies. 
So which major Australian markets have spare borrowing capacity?  Which ones are already pushed to the limit?  Read on….
Assumptions 
In a similar vein to our <a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/2014/04/15/6858/" target="_blank">recent</a> missive on housing affordability, we have made some assumptions. And in this regard we did the following: 
<ul>
<li>Went to the 2011 Census for each capital city and found the median family household income.</li>
<li>Worked out – via average weekly earnings – which are updated by state/territory twice each year – how much, by proxy, family incomes may have risen since the last census.</li>
<li>Applied a basic online ‘how much can I borrow’ calculator using a principal and interest loan; 30 year time frame against several levels of interest.</li>
<li>Used AFG’s mortgage index to determine the average loan to value ratio for each state/territory.  We used this to determine the average level of deposit in each case.</li>
<li>Recorded dwelling prices by capital for all dwellings according to the latest release from RPData.</li>
</ul>
Interest rate settings
We used five interest rate settings.
<ul>
<li>5.2% – which is the average rate for a current three-year fixed loan, according to the RBA.</li>
<li>5.95% – which is the current average variable rate, again according to the RBA.</li>
<li>6.25% – which would represent a 0.25% movement upwards in the cash rate, based on the current average variable rate.</li>
<li>6.5% – or a 0.5% movement upwards in the cash rate.</li>
<li>7.5% – or the average variable interest rate over the last 20 years.</li>
</ul>
Our aim
Our aim here is to find out two things: 
<ul>
<li>The degree of potential price movement based on today’s record low interest rates</li>
<li>The possible impact rising interest rates would have on borrowing capacity and its potential impact on prices</li>
</ul>
So here are some of the results – all for March 2014.
Sydney
Median dwelling price                                                          $762,000
Median family household income                                           $97,500
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.2%                                   $675,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.95%                                 $620,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.25%                                 $600,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.5%                                   $585,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 7.0%                                   $530,000
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Melbourne
Median dwelling price                                                          $669,000
Median family household income                                           $93,500
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.2%                                   $590,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.95%                                 $550,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.25%                                 $525,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.5%                                   $515,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 7.0%                                   $465,000
 
Brisbane
Median dwelling price                                                          $482,000
Median family household income                                           $89,750
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.2%                                   $590,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.95%                                 $545,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.25%                                 $530,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.5%                                   $515,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 7.0%                                   $465,000
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Perth
Median dwelling price                                                          $615,000
Median family household income                                           $105,750
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.2%                                   $680,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.95%                                 $625,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.25%                                 $605,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.5%                                   $590,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 7.0%                                   $535,000
 
Australia 
Median dwelling price                                                          $500,000
Median family household income                                           $82,250
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.2%                                   $555,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 5.95%                                 $510,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.25%                                 $495,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 6.5%                                   $480,000
Maximum borrowing capacity at 7.0%                                   $435,000
Potential price direction
Dwelling prices in both Sydney and Melbourne, even at today’s low interest rates, appear to have overshot the average family’s capacity to pay. 
Our analysis suggests, based on a 5.2% three year variable interest rate, that Sydney’s current median dwelling price of $762,000 is 19% more than most living in Sydney can afford.  This ratio is 16% in Melbourne.
In contrast, and again using a 5.2% interest rate; Brisbane’s dwelling prices could increase by up to 14% before maxing out the average Brisbane family’s borrowing capacity.  Perth has about 9% spare capacity; and on average across the country there is about 7% potential dwelling price growth, given the present low interest rates.
Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and even Canberra have some room to move – based on spare borrowing capacity and current low interest rates – when it comes to dwelling prices.
Rising interest rates
Rising interest rates could see price falls.  This is especially the case in both Sydney and Melbourne and to some degree in Perth, Brisbane and Canberra.  
A 0.25% lift in interest rates could see a 1% fall in Australian house prices.  A 0.5% lift in interest rates could mean a 3% to 5% fall in real estate prices is possible.  If variable interest rates went back to their longer term average of 7.5%, the dwellings prices could fall by as much as 10% Australia-wide.
Could rise and fall
Now they could fall; just like they could rise further across much of the country, given the current low interest rates.  
As said at the beginning, a range of other factors – supply, sales direction and confidence for example – also impact on a residential market’s direction.  
Additional factors
As seen in the case of Sydney and Melbourne – and as is now starting to emerge in Brisbane’s inner city new apartment market – several additional factors are pushing prices beyond even the maximum price levels rationalised by historically cheap interest rates.  
These include:
<ul>
<li>Chinese buyers seeking a safe harbour for their money and attracted, to some degree, by our favourable exchange rate.</li>
<li>Demand from self-managed super funds – burgeoning from the current ability to borrow for residential assets and by the banks pushing SMSFs to borrow, to help fuel their credit growth.</li>
<li>Human exuberance – we are like lemmings – there is no other way to describe it.</li>
</ul>
Final word
At present, purchasing power or the amount you can afford to borrow at prevailing low interest rates, is a major determinant of current dwelling values.  If buyers choose to max out their borrowing capacity, then dwellings prices across much of the country have got some way to grow yet.
Other factors have and are continuing to push some local price points beyond what’s rational. Interest rates, in time, will normalise.  Those markets which have broken logic are very likely to see price falls.
Buyers should be thinking about the worth of a dwelling based on a more normal interest rate setting, before bidding on it.  Investors need to think about local rental returns rather than inter-city price comparisons. 
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Residential price predictions: Which major Australian markets have spare borrowing capacity?

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Lender Australian First Mortgage has cut its three-year rate from 5.19% to 5.09%.
AFM has lowered two-year fixed rate from 4.83% to 4.78%.
AFM managing director Tanya White told The Advisor AFM regularly looked for opportunities to review its interest rates outside of the Reserve Bank’s cash rate movements.
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AFM drops three year fixed rates to 5.09%

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Commission of Audit has recommended including homes above a certain value in the means test that determines who gets the age pension and how much. Under the proposal, homes valued in excess of A$500,000 would be assessable for singles, while for couples the trigger would be A$750,000.
The family home is currently exempt from the assets test but the commission argues this is inequitable because it means high levels of wealth are sheltered. It suggests a more comprehensive means testing regime be put in place by 2027-28.
If this proposal is picked up by the federal government, it would see a sizable group of retirees required to call on the equity in their homes to help fund their retirement.
It would be a brave government that “forced” pensioners to sell their homes to release that equity, which makes reverse mortgages a likely tool for retirees who need to convert their home into cash flow.
Even now, a reverse mortgage can be an alternative to “downsizing” into a smaller and cheaper home to release funds for retirement.
How reverse mortgages work
A reverse mortgage allows homeowners to access a loan, or a regular stream of cash (an annuity), using their home as collateral. Borrowers continue to live in the property until death – or they move into aged care – after which the loan is repaid from the sale of the house.
The mortgage can apply to the full value of a property, or borrowers may be able to access “residual value protection”, allowing them to set aside a portion of the house’s value to be available for aged care or as an inheritance.
Interest rates are generally higher than for standard home loan products due to less competition in this sector and higher risks for the lender.
For some years now, on the back of the lessons learnt from the global financial crisis, there have been government-imposed rules around “negative equity” that prevent lenders from extracting repayments beyond the value of the house. This means lenders can suffer a loss if the loan amount exceeds the value of the house at the date of the sale, something that may happen in a softening property market.
Reverse mortgages involve compounding interest, where interest charges are added onto the loan as they accrue. This means the loan amount can rise quickly.
Taking out a reverse mortgage can affect the availability of funds for major items such as aged care and bequests, and it can have an impact on other family members who may live in the house. Ultimately reverse mortgages demand a much higher degree of financial literacy from individuals, who may need professional advice on issues such as tax and Centrelink implications.
Could we end up like the US?
Despite the fact that reverse mortgages helped send mortgage insurer the Federal Housing Administration bankrupt in the US, the market there is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/us-banking-reversemortgages-idUSBREA2G05T20140317">returning</a>.
How would increased demand for reverse mortgages change the Australian financial system?
The bulge of baby boomers entering retirement, along with a change to means testing along the lines proposed, could be expected to lead to an increase demand in such products. In theory, new lenders would be attracted into the market, thus increasing competition and driving interest rates down (in relative terms, against the risk-free rate).
Three main sources of risk are apparent, the first of which is declining real estate values, or the risk of negative equity. The loan amount may end up being larger than expected if the borrower enjoys a long life or property values fall.
Second, with a reverse mortgage the lender generally has no recourse to assets other than the home. Third, at this stage of life borrowers may neglect maintenance and property improvements, eroding the value of the home.
Many of these risks, in particular real estate values and an ageing population, are systematic and may become systemic. Should reverse mortgages enjoy significant growth, as projected, Australian lenders would have increased exposure to house price risk. If house prices dropped, more defaults would occur.
The impact of growth in reverse mortgages on the housing market itself may be limited, as properties are sold only after death or upon a move into aged care. But there may be a decrease in downsizing activity if these products become more popular.
An alternative to bank lending
Currently, reverse mortgages are mainly provided by the banking sector, which is already over-exposed to mortgages. At the same time, the superannuation sector is looking for long-term investment opportunities. Why not create financial products where super funds provide cash flow for retirees in exchange for access to the value in their homes?
Some super fund members may not want further exposure to Australian real estate, particularly if they are already house owners, but this could be an additional option in the current portfolio of investment choices offered by funds to their members.
The outcome might be comparable to the situation in overseas pension systems – such as Germany’s – where pensions are organised to a large degree as intergenerational wealth transfers, where one generation pays for the next generation.
Such a system could increase the resilience and efficiency of the Australian financial system.
Harry Scheule is associate professor, finance, UTS Business School at University of Technology, Sydney.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/26433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
Harry Scheule does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. 
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jake-cSmGT7VXVf

Reverse mortgages need a rethink if they’re the new age pension

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ANZ has launched another advertising campaign featuring The Mentalist actor Simon Baker.
The new commercial promoting the bank’s home loans was created by Whybin/TBWA Melbourne.
The ads feature the actor in his character Patrick Jane from the TV show The Mentalist and a couple in a furniture store. 
Jane, a psychic, points out the needs for their furniture decision to be aligned with their desired home extensions, ambitions and requisite home loan.
Simon Baker has now appeared in the ANZ series since 2011 when he replaced the unhelpful bank clerk, Barbara the banker in Bankworld, which was a creation of ANZ’s former agency M&amp;C Saatchi.
Baker has had the lead role in The Mentalist since 2008.
Photo courtesy of YouTube. 
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ANZ home loans sticks with Simon Baker

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High-risk home loans have CHOICE alerting borrowers about significant difficulties down the track.
The three products on their list are 40-year loans, family guarantees and low-deposit loans, with CHOICE head of media Tom Godfrey explaining that while they can make it easier to get from renting to buying, they carry risks.
“During the global financial crisis people were hard pressed to get a home loan approval unless they had a significant deposit. Now RAMS is offering a low-deposit loan combined with a guarantee that allows you to borrow a staggering 120% of the value of your home,” said Godfrey.   “Worryingly there has been a strong demand for these high-risk loans with one in three new home loan borrowers putting up less than the 20% normally required,” he said.
Consumers without a significant deposit are being offered products such as low LVR loans and family guarantees. Family assistance is becoming increasingly popular with home buyers, with <a href="/expert-insights/buying/the-two-aspects-stopping-most-renters-from-buying">Property Observer recently reporting that a survey calculated that 19% of buyers rely on their parents in some way</a>, with 42% of first home buyers doing so. This included using them as a guarantor, borrowing money or living with them while they invest.
Godfrey warns that those who lose their jobs, get sick or cannot keep up with repayments may see the bank requiring them to sell their homes, or repossess it.   “Getting a family member to guarantee all or part of your home might seem like a good idea for some borrowers as a way of avoiding lender’s mortgage insurance. However, the potential downside side risk for your family member is significant because if you are unable to make repayments on your home loan they may lose their house as well,” he said.   “For elderly parents who are no longer in the workforce and worked all their life to finally own their home, this is a high-risk strategy and can be devastating if things go wrong.”
Of these three, however, he said that 40-year loans come with the most risk – particularly as they can backfire if the interest rate goes up again. He suggests that those who take this loan do so as they cannot afford the monthly repayments on a 30-year term, and so are more vulnerable to rate changes.
Looking at a 30 and a 40 year loan on a $300,000 home, an extra $140,800 in interest ends up being paid – despite repayments being just $4.88 more per day for the 30-year loan.
“The average interest rate for standard home loans over the last 20 years has been 7.6% compared to 5.9% today. Be prepared for rates to go up.”
CHOICE recommends the following four tips for new buyers:
<ol>
<li>Check if you can afford rates increasing by 3%. 
</li>
<li>Consider fixing part of your loan, called a split loan. You can make extra payments into the variable portion of the loan. 
</li>
<li>Don’t try beating the bank. Even economists are often wrong when predicting long-term interest rate movements. 
</li>
<li>If you’re thinking about providing a family guarantee for someone, consider alternatives and important factors such as: <ul>
<li>Taking an unsecured personal loan for the amount you want to give the person and ask them to make all or part of the repayments. The interest rate will be higher but the risks are much smaller. 
</li>
<li>Make sure you have enough savings to cover the guarantee if problems arise. 
</li>
<li>If things go wrong, and the lender threatens to sell your house, immediately seek legal advice. If you make a complaint to the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Credit Ombudsman Service the bank has to pause the enforcement proceedings while the complaint is assessed.  </li>
</ul>
</li>
</ol>
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