Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

Coronavirus

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GUEST OBSERVATION
As lockdowns are relaxed around the world and people return to their workplaces, the next challenge will be adapting open office spaces to the new normal of strict personal hygiene and physical distancing.
While the merits and disadvantages of open plan and flexible workspaces have long been debated, the risk they posed of allowing dangerous, highly contagious viruses to spread was rarely (if ever) considered.
But co-working spaces are characterised by shared areas and amenities with surfaces that need constant cleaning. Droplets from a single sneeze can travel <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852">over 7 metres</a>, and surfaces within pods or booths, designed for privacy, could remain <a href="https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-6-130">hazardous for days</a>.
Even in countries such as <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-27/has-new-zealand-done-better-than-australia-on-coronavirus/12182254">Australia and New Zealand</a> where efforts to “flatten the curve” <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-leadership-coronavirus/610237/">have been successful</a> and which have relatively easily controlled borders, it’s fair to ask whether communal workspaces might be a thing of the past.
Perhaps – if vigilant measures are in place – some countries can continue to embrace collaborative, flexible, activity-based workplace designs and the cost savings they represent. But this is <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/14/21211789/coronavirus-office-space-work-from-home-design-architecture-real-estate?subId3=xid%253Afr1586892270547ich">unlikely to be the case in general</a> in the coming years. Even if some organisations can operate with minimal risk there will be an expectation they provide virus-free workplaces should there be future outbreaks.
Working from home
Worldwide, there will undoubtedly be fewer people in the office – now workers have tried working from home, they may find they like it. And organisations may have little choice but to limit the numbers of workers on-site. Staggered shifts, enforced flexitime, and 24/7 operations may become the norm, along with working remotely.
The open plan model has been criticised for everything from lowered productivity, <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2017.0239">less interpersonal interaction</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0003687016302514?via%3Dihub">antisocial behaviour</a>, <a href="http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/34543/1/12020_1101a_Tyler-Merrick.pdf">reduced well-being</a>, too much <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494413000340">distraction</a>, a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272494413000340">lack of privacy</a>, and making workers <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003687018303466?dgcid=rss_sd_all">feel exposed and monitored</a>.
But it has also been shown to <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-plan-offices-can-actually-work-under-certain-conditions-89452">improve cooperation and communication</a>. Whether these innovative spaces are within a large organisation or are communal workspaces where start-ups, freelancers, and contractors can sit together (such as <a href="https://gridakl.com/">GridAKL</a> in Auckland or <a href="https://thecommons.com.au/location/sydney/">The Commons</a> in Sydney), their popularity is undeniable. The sense of community and the ability to share knowledge and ideas are key attractions of co-working.
 
Riding the shared/flexi-space wave have been companies such as WeWork – popularising communal tables within co-working hubs and providing “pods” for private conversations. But there is now little doubt WeWork will be an early casualty of COVID-19. Already in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradthomas/2020/04/15/wework-from-home-now/#5035b4bb7093">financial trouble</a> before the pandemic, WeWork will cut more than 1,000 jobs this month.
But what about the thousands of organisations that retooled their densely populated work environments to encourage flexibility, activity-based work, and movement within and between spaces?
James Muir, CEO of sustainability start-up <a href="https://www.crunchandflourish.com/solutions">Crunch and Flourish</a> has no doubt using co-working offices in central Auckland has been a positive: “We benefited from the great community at GridAKL,” he says. “And before long we were collaborating with other start-ups on marketing and design as well as getting great advice from more experienced entrepreneurs.”
Missing social cues online
Those fortuitous conversations and information exchanges will inevitably become rarer as we avoid the risk of interpersonal contact - and they are almost impossible to mimic online. Personal interaction (even within the office) will be replaced with the already familiar virtual video meeting - or even, as TIME magazine reports, <a href="https://time.com/5801882/coronavirus-spatial-remote-work/">holograms and avatars</a>.
However, communication is more challenging when conducted remotely. We are more persuasive in person, particularly if we <a href="https://doi/10.1037/0022-3514.45.2.241">know the person</a>. Being on a video call is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200421-why-zoom-video-chats-are-so-exhausting?ocid=ww.social.link.email">more draining</a> than a face-to-face chat because workers must concentrate harder to process non-verbal cues such as tone of voice and body language. Anxiety about technology is another barrier, and some find <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.displa.2012.10.009">lack of eye contact</a> in virtual meetings (mimicked by staring at the “dot” of your own camera) disquieting.
New norms of hand sanitising, cleaning equipment and wearing masks will emerge. Handshaking or friendly pecks on the cheek may soon be things of the past, as will family photos and mementos on desks, if they prove too difficult to sanitise.
Aside from behaviours, policies, and attitudes, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/after-coronavirus-the-office-of-the-future-is-the-office-of-the-past">physical office will need to change</a>. Already, a company in the Netherlands has coined the term the “<a href="https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/netherlands/six-feet-office">6 feet office</a>”, aiming to redesign workspaces to help workers maintain social distancing at work.
We may even see the return of the high-walled cubicle, and the introduction of wide corridors and one-way foot traffic, already found in some <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/hospitals-quickly-reshape-treat-covid-19-patients/">hospitals</a>. Activity-based work and hot-desks (which oblige people to move throughout the day) could be replaced by assigned desk arrangements where workers sit back to back.
New builds might incorporate touch-free technology such as voice-activated lifts, doors and cabinets, touchless sinks and soap dispensers, improved air venting and UV lights to disinfect surfaces overnight.
In the meantime, will James Muir resume running Crunch and Flourish from his co-working office after the pandemic? “Yes,” he says, “once the risk of any new cases is under control.”<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137382/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-morrison-296325">Rachel Morrison</a>, Associate Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/auckland-university-of-technology-1137">Auckland University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/goodbye-to-the-crowded-office-how-coronavirus-will-change-the-way-we-work-together-137382">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

No more crowded office, how coronavirus will change the way we work together

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We’re going to benefit from the shutdown imposed by the virus, in infinite ways. It may not feel like it at the moment, and I don’t disregard the pain many are going through, but Australia will look back at this crisis as a time that changed the nation for the better.
The discussion now is about how and when we return to normal. But the new normal will be different to the old. It has to be.
One of the big lessons is that we cannot continue to have so many important things made in one country – or anywhere offshore. There are things we need to make in Australia. Manufacturing is poised for a revival, with benefits in employment. This will be part of a strong economic recovery.
The corporate twits who thought it made sense to locate customer call centres offshore because it saved a few bucks are now reconsidering their strategies. They need to bring customer service back home and in the process they will have fewer angry and frustrated customers. And create jobs in Australia.
The situation has forced us to innovate and to work harder at helping our customers. Real estate has found ways to function without live auctions and open houses. We’re seeing examples of online auctions achieving sales well over the reserve price. One-on-one inspections of properties have taken us back to old service standards and getting to know buyers one-on-one. Everyone benefits.
Many of us have realised how much we value the simple things we took for granted, like meeting friends for a cuppa or taking the family to the beach. When the restrictions are lifted, Australians will party like they never have since the end of World War Two – not extravagantly but by going to cafes, pubs, theatres, parks and beaches. A recent survey indicates people plan to take holidays in Australia. Many of the lost jobs will come back (not all, unfortunately).
Some people have learned, by accident, how to save. The restrictions have stopped us going out and spending. The improvement to the bank balance has been an eye-opener. Now some of us know how to get on top of the mortgage and young adults have been shown a way to save a deposit for a first home. First-home buyers with secure jobs will be busy in the second half of the year.
The resources sector has remained steady in the shutdown period. Queensland locations with links to the mining industry have experienced an uplift in rental demand amid the virus crisis, with rents actually rising. China, our biggest trading partner, is projected by the IMF to experience moderate economic growth this year and a boom next year. I’m expecting a resources boom in Australia as China and other nations get ambitious about economic recovery. Real estate markets influenced by resources links may surge – but investors should proceed with caution, because these are fickle and volatile markets.
A more engaging trend with impacts on real estate is the one I wrote about last week. We can expect an increase in people moving from the big cities and buying in lifestyle areas within an hour or two of the city. This movement has been enhanced by technology which allows people to work remotely – and will be exacerbated by the shutdown, which has forced people to work from home.
Some will make it a permanent arrangement. Expect uplift in markets like the Central Coast and the Southern Highlands in NSW; Ballarat, Bendigo, the Latrobe Valley and elsewhere in Victoria; and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland.
As an aside, the virus has done all of us a favour by delivering a major come-uppance to the ugly bastards who run global oil businesses and regularly hold the world to ransom with their cynical manipulation of supply and prices. We’ve all saved money by needing to fill up our cars less often and paying less when we do. Will it change our habits post-shutdown? Hopefully, but probably not.
The virus has generally done the environment a big favour. The before-and-after shots of some of world’s big cities are a revelation, including some in Australia. There’s been a big reduction in emissions. The greatest benefit of the shutdown would be achieved if we learnt something from that. Will we? I fear we will easily slip back into old habits.
But, amid everything, we’ve learnt who the real heroes are and how much we underpay them. We’ve discovered that we can do without over-rated footie players and self-absorbed corporate executives, but not without under-resourced and under-appreciated nurses. Boris Johnson has learnt that more than most.
And we’ve seen a cultural shift in politics and business. There’s been a refreshing absence of adversarial politics. The country apparently can function without people shouting at one another in Parliament. Let’s make that a permanent change.
Business in many ways has sought to be part of the solution, even including the major banks. The only sectors which haven’t entered into the spirit of pulling together have been insurance and some sections of news media.
Who knows – maybe going out of your way to help people is actually good for business.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The future benefits of the coronavirus crisis: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

Rental listings rising as COVID-19 continues: REA Group

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The state of Victoria has extended its lockdown until mid-May. Kids are learning from home and adults are working from home, but even so, it seems that there is still plenty of time for activities. If you're feeling a little unproductive lately, here's a list we've compiled filled with at-home activities you can complete at any time.

<h2>LIVING ROOM</h2>

<ul>
<li>Rearrange furniture around the house.</li>
	<li>House plants are proven to be good for your health, consider placing one plant or two in the living room. </li>
	<li>Hang some artwork, prints or posters.</li>
	<li>But if you are feeling creative, paint!</li>
	<li>Try interior photography — it helps you view your house in a new light</li>
	<li>Clean the windows and blinds — dust settles very easily in those places.</li>
	<li>Clean the filters in the air conditioner.</li>
	<li>Exercise: there are tons of workout videos on YouTube.</li>
	<li>Post-workout warrants a Netflix binge-watching session.</li>
	<li>And end every busy night with a movie night.</li>
</ul>
<h2>BEDROOM</h2>

<ul>
<li>Declutter, <a href="https://shop.konmari.com/pages/about">Marie Kondo style</a>.</li>
	<li>After that, fill all unwanted clothes into bags. Take these items to charity stores once the lockdown is lifted.</li>
	<li>And after that, organise the bedside drawer and any other drawer or closet in the bedroom.</li>
	<li>Vacuum your bedroom if the floor is carpeted.</li>
	<li>Otherwise, use a lint roller to stick up all the dust and hair in every corner of the bedroom.</li>
	<li>If you are feeling extra productive, wash your pillows, blankets and bedding — sweat and dust accumulate quickly in these, so you should ideally be doing this once every fortnight!</li>
	<li>Create <a href="/news/how-to-effectively-manage-a-remote-workplace-during-social-distancing">a dedicated working space</a> for work or your child’s online classes.</li>
</ul>
<h2>KITCHEN</h2>

<ul>
<li>Try out the recipes you've been meaning to cook. Try making your own ravioli or a homemade chutney. </li>
	<li>Bake your own bread or sweet treats.</li>
	<li>Clean the stovetop — cooking oil, if left to accumulate, deteriorates the stovetop.</li>
	<li>Clean the sink.</li>
	<li>Organize the fridge. Categorise each compartment. Fruits, vegetables, frozen foods, beverages, dairy products, etc. should be in their respective places in the fridge.</li>
	<li>Clear the bins and take out the trash.</li>
	<li>If you are a Masterchef with loads of kitchen tools, check out how to create more storage for cutleries and other appliances <a href="/expert-insights/buying/25-kitchen-storage-ideas-for-small-spaces">here</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h2>GARAGE</h2>

<ul>
<li>Like other rooms in the house, start by decluttering! The garage stores mountains of unwanted items, so it is finally time to officially throw these unwanted items out.</li>
	<li>Mount a pegboard wall. Hang up your home tools, e.g. hammer, wrench, scissors etc.</li>
	<li>Create storage space for sports equipment.</li>
	<li>Create storage space for gardening tools.</li>
	<li>Create <a href="https://www.bunnings.com.au/diy-advice/outdoor/garage/diy-multiple-bike-rack">a designated space</a> to park bicycles vertically.</li>
	<li>Build <a href="https://www.bunnings.com.au/diy-advice/outdoor/structures/how-to-make-a-diy-bin-storage-unit">simple mini shelves for extra storage space</a> to keep smaller accessories.</li>
	<li>For miscellaneous items that you’d still like to keep, store them in containers. </li>
	<li>Wash your car</li>
</ul>
<h2>BACKYARD</h2>

<ul>
<li>Have a backyard brunch with everyone in the house. If you live alone, organise a Skype brunch session with a friend!</li>
	<li>Mow the lawn.</li>
	<li>Water your plants.</li>
	<li>Trim bushes or weeds around the garden.</li>
	<li>Otherwise, plant and grow some flowers and vegetables.</li>
	<li>Fix the fencing.</li>
</ul>
If you have any other ideas, let us know in the comments!
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jieyee_46282

Feeling unproductive during COVID-19? Here is a master list of home activities to do during the lockdown

GUEST OBSERVATION

Electricity demand in Australia has barely budged since COVID-19 took hold. Many may be wondering: after months spent largely at home, are huge household power bills on the way?

The answer, largely, is no. But as the pandemic forces hundreds of thousands of Australians into unemployment, some will still struggle to pay their electricity bills.

A mass failure to pay would threaten the viability of electricity retailers. If some folded, this would reduce market competition and drive up energy costs for everyone.

So let’s take a look at how stay-at-home measures are affecting energy demand, and what the coronavirus pandemic means for electricity consumers in Australia.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329907/original/file-20200422-47820-1ttkzt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

The unemployed may struggle to pay their electricity bills this winter. Julian Smith/AAP

A mixed bag

We’ve assessed how social distancing restrictions have affected both demand for electricity and “mobility” (the movement of people) in Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK.

Interestingly, changes in electricity demand and mobility go together and were significantly different across the countries after strict stay-at-home rules were imposed in late March.

Grid-based electricity demand in both the UK and New Zealand has declined significantly (20 per cent and 15 per cent respectively). Demand is largely unchanged in Australia and has declined about 5 per cent in the US overall, relative to the baseline.

Among Australian states, electricity demand has declined in New South Wales by around 5 per cent, and increased slightly in Western Australia and Tasmania. Demand is largely unchanged in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland compared to the baseline.

The relative strictness of social distancing policies seems to be the main driver of changes in electricity demand. For example, unlike New Zealand, Australia’s construction industry was not subject to lockdown restrictions, which meant electricity use in that sector has continued.

Of course, many factors affect electricity demand, and further analysis is required to isolate the precise impact of social distancing policies.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329908/original/file-20200422-47832-1l6fjv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

Electricity demand in Australia has changed little since stay-at-home regulations were introduced. Scott Barbour/AAP

Out and about

To crosscheck changes in electricity demand, we examined the change in the movement of people to retail, recreation and workplace locations as measured in Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. These reports use location history data from users to create a picture of how people are moving around the community.

Mobility changes are consistent with the change in electricity demand: since stay-at-home restrictions were imposed, falls in mobility have been about twice as large in New Zealand and the UK as in Australia.

Mobility in the US states of New York and California has declined more than in Australia, but less than in the UK and New Zealand.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329909/original/file-20200422-47841-wu09r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

An empty London street. Electricity demand and mobility in the UK has fallen since social distancing was enforced. SOPA Images

What to expect this winter

In Australia, electricity demand from households has increased slightly as millions of people stay at home, prompting warnings of bill shock. But activities such as boiling the kettle and cooking more often, and keeping lights on all day, do not make a big difference to consumption.

This will change in winter, when we need to keep our houses warm. Households using split-system air conditioners for heating can expect seasonally adjusted electricity bills to be around 10-20 per cent higher if they’re heating the house 24 hours a day, rather than just briefly in the morning and again in the late afternoon and evening.

But demand will vary greatly depending on weather and a home’s size, insulation, efficiency of heater and so on.

Averaged across all Australian households (and assuming social distancing regulations continue to apply in winter), we expect total residential electricity consumption to be a little higher this winter than in previous years.

Differences will be more pronounced in the colder states: Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and to a lesser extent New South Wales. The warmer states of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory will see little change.

Overall, slightly higher demand for electricity in Australian households over winter will probably offset lower commercial and retail demand.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329910/original/file-20200422-47784-pzh8de.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

Many Australians are worried about bill shock this winter. Dan Peled/AAP

Threat to competition

​ 
While overall electricity demand might not shift much in Australia, skyrocketing unemployment may create a surge in the number of households struggling to pay their energy bills, even with Jobkeeper payments.

Long before the pandemic, regulators, governments, retailers and customer groups had worked to improve consumer protections such as hardship policies. These measures are now likely to be put to the test.

There are signs that electricity retailers are already anxious about looming non-payment. For example, some retailers have offered incentives for customers to take up direct debit, or cash-back for bills paid in advance.

Retailers pay for both the electricity produced, and its transport. If many thousands of customers can’t pay their bills, some retailers may become financially unviable. The smaller retailers have the weakest balance sheets and are most at risk.

But these small companies are the lifeblood of competition in Australia’s retail electricity markets. Losing them would, in time, translate into higher prices.

In Queensland, the government has announced assistance to electricty consumers in response to COVID-19.

If utility non-payment spirals and retailer viability is seriously threatened, governments and regulators might consider ways to share the risks more broadly, to protect competition and consumers. 
Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University; Kelly Burns, Senior Research Fellow, Victoria University, and Steven Percy, Senior research fellow, Victoria University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license

Staying at home for months is unlikely to lead to an eye-watering electricity bill

No state or territory will be spared from Covid-19 fall-out: NAB  

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In recent weeks a growing chorus of Australian commentators has called for social distancing measures to be eased or radically curtailed.
Some have <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/coronavirus-lockdown-hysteria-is-ruining-10-million-lives/news-story/fd5307f58302cf1ab928decb07b2619c">claimed </a>the lives saved by the lockdowns are not worth the damage they are causing to the economy.
Others have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/baby-boomers-won-t-like-it-but-next-step-after-lockdown-is-herd-immunity-20200415-p54k0t">claimed</a> the case for easing is strengthened by the fact many of the hardest hit by COVID-19 are elderly or suffering from other conditions.
Some might expect economists, of all people, to endorse this calculus.
But as economists we categorically reject these views, and we believe they do not represent the majority of our profession.
We believe a callous indifference to life is morally objectionable, and that it would be a mistake to expect a premature loosening of restrictions to be beneficial to the economy and jobs, given the rapid rate of contagion.
It is wishful thinking to believe we face a choice between a buoyant economy without social distancing and a deep recession with social distancing.
In a world with COVID-19, there are no good choices.
The best we can do is limit the spread of COVID-19 as much as practicable and rely on the strength of the government’s balance sheet to cushion the impact on the workers and businesses hardest hit.
Our success to date is a direct result of the measures taken, but we cannot afford to be complacent.
We recognise there are trade-offs on some margins, but we urge the government to work closely with public health experts to carefully determine at what time, in what ways, and in which sectors, to begin lifting restrictions.
There should be no doubt the cost of getting this wrong is very high.
Open Letter from Australian Economists
19 April, 2020
Dear Prime Minister and Members of the National Cabinet,
The undersigned economists have witnessed and participated in the public debate about when to relax social-distancing measures in Australia. Some commentators have expressed the view there is a trade-off between the public health and economic aspects of the crisis. We, as economists, believe this is a false distinction.
We cannot have a functioning economy unless we first comprehensively address the public health crisis. The measures put in place in Australia, at the border and within the states and territories, have reduced the number of new infections. This has put Australia in an enviable position compared to other countries, and we must not squander that success.
We recognise the measures taken to date have come at a cost to economic activity and jobs, but believe these are far outweighed by the lives saved and the avoided economic damage due to an unmitigated contagion. We believe strong fiscal measures are a much better way to offset these economic costs than prematurely loosening restrictions.
As has been foreshadowed in your public remarks, our borders will need to remain under tight control for an extended period. It is vital to keep social-distancing measures in place until the number of infections is very low, our testing capacity is expanded well beyond its already comparatively high level, and widespread contact tracing is available.
A second-wave outbreak would be extremely damaging to the economy, in addition to involving tragic and unnecessary loss of life.
Sincerely,
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-booth-153308">Professor Alison Booth</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-borland-1079">Professor Jeff Borland</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lisa-cameron-986169">Professorial Research Fellow Lisa Cameron</a>, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/efrem-castelnuovo-145615">Professor Efrem Castelnuovo</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-ann-cobb-clark-729631">Professor Deborah Cobb-Clark</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/ashley-craig/home">Assistant Professor Ashley Craig</a>, University of Michigan
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Professor Chris Edmond</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://nisvanerkal.net/">Professor Nisvan Erkal</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-freebairn-90">Professor John Freebairn</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/renee-fry-mckibbin-673270">Professor Renée Fry-McKibbin</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joshua-gans-399">Professor Joshua Gans</a>, University of Toronto
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jacob-k-goeree-562903">Professor Jacob Goeree</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/quentin-grafton-1941">Professor Quentin Grafton</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://www.rse.anu.edu.au/about-us/our-people/people/?profile=Simon-Grant">Professor Simon Grant</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pauline-grosjean-343133">Professor Pauline Grosjean</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jane-hall-1280">Distinguished Professor Jane Hall</a>, University of Technology Sydney
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Assistant Professor Steven Hamilton</a>, George Washington University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-harper-8628">Professor Ian Harper</a>, Melbourne Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Professor Richard Holden</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/david-johnston">Professor David Johnston</a>, Monash University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/flavio-menezes-4124">Professor Flavio Menezes</a>, University of Queensland
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/warwick-mckibbin-9129">Professor Warwick McKibbin</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://economics.uchicago.edu/directory/simon-mongey">Assistant Professor Simon Mongey</a>, University of Chicago
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-morley-9918">Professor James Morley</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="http://www.josephlyonmullins.com/">Professor Joseph Mullins</a>, University of Minnesota
<a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/140028-abigail-payne">Professor Abigail Payne</a>, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Professor Bruce Preston</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sue-richardson-552530">Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson</a>, Flinders University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stefanie-schurer-333154">Professor Stefanie Schurer</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="https://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/our-people/staff/economics/kalvinder-shields">Professor Kalvinder Shields</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-quiggin-2084">Professor John Quiggin</a>, University of Queensland
<a href="http://www.simonrquinn.com/">Associate Professor Simon Quinn</a>, Oxford University
Economic Advisor James Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
<a href="http://tomwilkening.com/">Professor Tom Wilkening</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-wolfers-429743">Professor Justin Wolfers</a>, University of Michigan
<a href="https://lens.monash.edu/@yves-zenou">Professor Yves Zenou</a>, Monash University
<hr>
Full list of signatories available on the economists open letter <a href="http://covid19openletter.net/">website</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136686/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Steven Hamilton</a>, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Chris Edmond</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-letter-from-174-australian-economists-dont-sacrifice-health-for-the-economy-136686">original article</a>.
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Open letter from 174 Australian economists: don’t sacrifice health for the economy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In the past week, a sharp decline in sentiment has been seen amongst Australian consumers and business. In the US, President Trump and the market remain optimistic on the ability of their economy to rebound quickly from this crisis, but data to hand is increasingly challenging this view.
Beginning with our business sector, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200414BullAustralianbusinessconditionsMarch.pdf">the NAB business survey</a> reported a dramatic decline in confidence, the index declining from -2pts in February to -66pts in March as severe restrictions over trading and social gatherings were implemented. The March level of the index compares to a reading of around -30 at the depths of the GFC, and -24 in the 1990’s recession.
Conditions also fell sharply this month, from 0pts to -21pts. This outcome is worse than the GFC (-17pts), but not as bad as the 1990’s recession (-39pts). All the components of conditions were weak in March, and the experience of businesses across the states was uniform. Unsurprisingly, business is reticent to invest in this climate, the capex expectations index falling to -23, below the GFC low of -20. Fiscal measures introduced to accelerate business investment are then set to struggle.
Turning to the Australian consumer, in April our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf">Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey</a> registered the single biggest monthly decline in the 47 year history of the survey, taking the Index beyond its GFC lows to 75.6, levels only seen during the deep recessions of the early 1990s (64.6) and early 1980s (75.5). As detailed by Chief Economist Bill Evans, it is “pertinent to note that the lows in previous recessions were reached after one to two years of continuous deterioration compared to the one month collapse we have seen here”.
Consumers’ view of the ‘economy, next 12 months’ recorded its biggest monthly fall on record, a 31% drop to 53.7, in line with GFC lows. Households are however still optimistic that this is only a temporary shock, with the ‘economy next 5yrs’ sub-index only down 3.8% to 87 – still above this cycle’s lows of 85.5 averaged during the second half of 2014.
Views on family finances were also hit in April, though the cost was much less severe than for immediate expectations of the economy (down 14.8% for ‘finances, versus a year ago’, and 6.6% for ‘finances in the year ahead’). While households are hopeful regarding their financial position, very clearly they are taking preventative measures when it comes to spending, ‘time to buy a major household item’ plunging 31.6% in the month – also its largest ever shock. As detailed in the survey release, health concerns and social distancing requirements are likely on the minds of consumers, in addition to their finances. 
A similar argument can be posited for housing, with sentiment around the sector having collapsed in April. ‘Time to buy a dwelling’ fell 26.6%, and house price expectations declined by over half (-50.8%). These outcomes are discussed in more detail by <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42983">Chief Economist Bill Evans</a> in our weekly video update, along with the responses to a number of special questions on the experience of consumers in this outbreak – <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf">also highlighted in the bulletin</a>. 
Turning to the labour market, while <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42990">the unemployment rate</a> was little changed in March at 5.2%, Westpac-MI unemployment expectations continued to rise, another 8% increase seen in April. Helpfully, the current level for the index of 130 is well below that seen in the GFC and the 1990’s recession, circa 180 and 170 respectively. Presumably, the Government’s JobKeeper package has given households some confidence in the labour market. It is also likely that households view the threat of job loss as temporary because it is being caused by a virus. On this point, while Westpac expect the unemployment rate to peak around 9% mid-2020, by the end of 2020, it should be back near 7%.
The significance of the JobKeeper program to Australia’s economic outlook was a key topic discussed by Chief Economist Bill Evans in our inaugural <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42984">Market Outlook in conversation podcast</a>. In this edition, Bill was joined by our Head of Financial Market Strategy Robert Rennie who covered off on key financial market developments, particularly with respect to the Australian and US dollar.
Turning to the US, the economic situation they face as a result of COVID-19 is becoming more and more severe. In just four weeks, around 22 million US citizens have now filed for unemployment benefits after losing their jobs. This loss will see the unemployment rate rise from 4.4% at March to around 15% in April. Further job loss has to be expected, and so the peak for the employment rate will be closer to 20% come mid-2020. Despite the benefit of precautionary buying in March, retail sales have already been hit hard, falling 8.7% in March, the worst outcome on record. Another, likely larger, decline will be seen in April, with durable goods and discretionary services expected to be the hardest hit.
While a sharp reduction in consumption is the prime shock coming to the US as a result of this crisis, investment in housing and the business sector has also been hit hard, and will remain weak for some time. Both Westpac and the IMF expect a contraction in US GDP of around 6.0% in 2020. While the IMF forecast a V-shaped recovery, circa 5.0% growth in 2021, we are much more circumspect, instead anticipating year-average growth around 1.0%. Hot spots such as New York City look to be coming under control, but the virus has now spread across the US, making it difficult to trace and contain. This will delay a return to normal conditions, with wide-ranging economic consequence. 
ELLIOT CLARKE is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42750" target="_blank">senior economist at Westpac</a> 
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COVID-19’s terrible toll: Elliot Clarke

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It’s hard to forget the thick smoke plumes <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling-129772">blanketing</a> Australia’s cities and towns during the black summer. But consecutive days of smoke haze can also come from planned burns to <a href="https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/meyer2.pdf">reduce fuel loads</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/logging-burns-conceal-industrial-pollution-in-the-name-of-community-safety-96712">fires set after logging</a>.
Expanding planned burning is often touted as a way to mitigate the risk of bushfires rising with climate change. But the autumn burn-off season is bad news for the COVID-19 pandemic, as smoke exposure can make us more vulnerable to respiratory illnesses.
In fact, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/months-of-haze-doctors-demand-smoke-pollution-check-as-pandemic-raises-burn-off-fear-20200407-p54hy4">doctors in the Yarra Valley</a>, Victoria, are campaigning for better air quality monitors. They argue burn-offs are a serious health risk during this pandemic, particularly with asthma inhaler stocks in <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/interview-with-deborah-knight-on-2gb-about-covid-19">limited supply</a>.
Yes, planned burns can be useful, but they offer limited protection from bushfires and, right now, they pose an immediate health risk. It’s a reasonable bet that planned burning will do us more harm than good in 2020.
The same can be said of <a href="https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/ambient-air-quality/topic/2016/fine-particulate-matter-pm25">other sources of smoke</a>, including from logging regeneration burns, wood heaters, backyard burn-offs and burning fossil fuels.
How does smoke from bushfires hurt our lungs?
Smoke pollution from the black summer <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.5694/mja2.50545">may have killed</a> more than 400 people, and sent 4,000 people to the hospital.
Bushfire smoke includes fine particles – less than 2.5 micrometers in size (one micrometre is a ten-thousanth of a centimetre) – that can reach to the ends of our lungs and enter the bloodstream. They <a href="https://www.mua.org.au/sites/mua.org.au/files/uploads/201912%20-%20CAR%20factsheet%20-%20Bushfire%20Smoke%20and%20Health.pdf">compromise our immune system</a>, weakening our <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340343851_Environmental_pollutants_modulate_RNA_and_DNA_virus-activated_miRNA-155_expression_and_innate_immune_system_responses_Insights_into_new_immunomodulative_mechanisms">antiviral defences</a>.
Smoke also has a toxic mix of metals and organic chemicals that include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719347874">known carcinogens</a>. Even short term exposure increases hospital admissions and ambulance call-outs in Australia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, cardiovascular attacks and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-poor-air-quality-from-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health-126835">other health effects</a>.
It’s not just humans – health impacts from smoke <a href="https://ca.audubon.org/news/birds-suffer-air-pollution-just-we-do">extends to wildlife</a>, with smoke reducing their ability to mount an immune response and <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8051/meta">increasing their stress</a>.
The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-25847-1">ecological effects</a> of smoke can also compromise animal survival, including making it harder for them to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa87ed/meta">forage</a>.
Exacerbating COVID-19
Smoke exposure causes inflammation in the lungs, as does coronavirus infection. But it’s a not a simple equation; they likely act in a synergistic way with complex interactions.
Recent studies have linked worse outcomes of COVID-19 infections with <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7083240/">long-term cigarette smoking</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749120320601?via%3Dihub#bib6">air pollution</a>, both of which have similar chemical components to <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es981277q">wood smoke</a>.
New research from the USA shows average air pollution with one extra microgram of fine particles per cubic metre is associated with a 15% higher death rate from <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid-pm/files/pm_and_covid_mortality.pdf">COVID-19</a>.
In other words, if COVID-19 has a base death rate of about <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext">1 in 100</a>, and fine particles in air pollution span from near one microgram/litre to higher than 12 in major <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid-pm/files/pm_and_covid_mortality.pdf">urban centres</a>, then the death rate could more than double to 2.65 per 100 infections.
Research into other viral infections shows just two hours of exposure to smoke can make people <a href="https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201807-1287OC">more susceptible</a> to respiratory infections. But what we’re uncertain about is if short term exposure to smoke would illicit the same dire consequences – dramatically higher death rates – as there appears to be with long-term exposure to air pollutants.
What’s more, men could be more at risk than women. Men find it harder to fight off the flu than women, and prior exposure to wood smoke can make flu symptoms <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6467314/">worse in men</a>.
Planned burning is under pressure
The amount and pattern of planned burning is under pressure to change. Some <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-only-one-way-to-make-bushfires-less-powerful-take-out-the-stuff-that-burns-129323">commentators</a> are campaigning for increased planned burning, but others are <a href="https://theconversation.com/percentage-targets-for-planned-burning-are-blunt-tools-that-dont-work-39254">asking for less</a>, and the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522">Victorian firefighter chief has said</a> it’s no silver bullet.
While planned burns aim to reduce wildfire, it’s <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5330&amp;context=smhpapers">not yet clear</a> whether this will ultimately alter the amount of smoke over communities.
On the one hand, planned burns could pump more smoke into the atmosphere than wildfires because <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5330&amp;context=smhpapers">larger areas need to be burned</a>, smoke can build up and <a href="https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/meyer2.pdf">hang around for longer</a>, and planned burns could produce <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5330&amp;context=smhpapers">more toxic smoke by burning wetter fuels</a>.
On the other hand, planned burns have lower severity and are <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16167">more patchy</a> than wildfires, so burn less of the vegetation in a given area, potentially producing less smoke.
What about protection? Planned burns can make <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/CIB/cib0203/03Cib08">firefighting easier for a few years after fire</a>. But current rates of planned burning give little protection for houses when wildfires are driven by <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire-127022">extreme weather</a>.
Planned burns within a few hundred metres of houses <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029212">can give protection</a> but must occur frequently, such as less than every <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18128">five years</a>. We shouldn’t expect towns to endure local smoke pollution this often.
A matter of timing
In the context of COVID-19, the seasonal timing of fires is also important.
Flu risk is lowest in the <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/flu-trends-in-australia">summer months</a>, and COVID-19 might <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/dreaded-duo-australia-will-likely-hit-peak-coronavirus-cases-around-flu-season">peak in late winter</a>. This means smoke from wildfires in summer may have less impact than smoke from planned burns in autumn and spring.
 
The coming summer is unlikely to bring a repeat of last summer’s fires because so much forest is already burnt.
So, even if COVID-19 spills over into 2021, the compounding smoke risk from wildfires is likely to be lower than smoke from planned burns in autumn and spring.
Not worth it
All things considered, it’s not worth the health risk to conduct planned burns, logging regeneration burns or other burning this year while the pandemic continues to sweep through the country, particularly in areas close to towns such as the Yarra Valley.
Still, whether or not planned burns will change our total exposure to smoke from bushfires, the effects of climate change are <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083699">definitely bringing more fire</a> and with it more smoke.
This means we can expect to have to deal with interactions between virus risks and smoke risks more often in the future.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136230/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/don-driscoll-17432">Don Driscoll</a>, Professor in Terrestrial Ecology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brian-oliver-113740">Brian Oliver</a>, Research Leader in Respiratory cellular and molecular biology at the Woolcock Institute of Medical Research and Professor, Faculty of Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/courtney-alice-waugh-1032568">Courtney Alice Waugh</a>, Associate Professor in Immunology and Disease, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/nord-university-3607">Nord University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marcel-klaassen-425221">Marcel Klaassen</a>, Alfred Deakin Professor and Chair in Ecology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/veerle-l-b-jaspers-1032459">Veerle L. B. Jaspers</a>, Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/norwegian-university-of-science-and-technology-715">Norwegian University of Science and Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-smoke-from-autumn-burn-offs-could-make-coronavirus-symptoms-worse-its-not-worth-the-risk-136230">original article</a>.
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The smoke from autumn burn-offs could make coronavirus symptoms worse

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GUEST OBSERVER
Less than a month after restrictions first took effect, Australia appears to have contained the spread of COVID-19 more successfully than we could have possibly imagined.
But we’ve done so at unimaginable cost: large swathes of the economy have been shut down, leaving the livelihoods of millions of Australians on hold indefinitely. With new cases now on the decline, the conversation at today’s National Cabinet meeting will turn to what can reopen, and when.
But the economic costs of re-opening prematurely could be enormous.
The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">least costly</a> economic strategy is eliminating COVID-19 from Australia altogether. Growing epidemiological evidence suggests it may be possible for us to eliminate coronavirus within the next two to three months.
New Zealand is pursuing such a strategy.
Australia’s state and territory governments should <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/covid-19-there-are-only-two-options-from-here-one-is-more-deadly/">explicitly declare</a> that they want to eliminate the virus, and maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are down to zero or close to it.
And in the meantime we’ll accrue invaluable intelligence from other countries about how best to emerge from lockdowns, and plan accordingly.
There’s no doubt this strategy would have big short-term economic costs.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that severe shutdowns like our level-three restrictions wipe out almost a quarter of economic activity, costing Australia’s economy about 2% of annual GDP for each month they remain in place.
This means a three-month shutdown would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy-135026">shave</a> six percentage points off Australia’s annual GDP.
But the Government’s <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/covid-19-australias-fiscal-response-is-now-among-the-biggest-in-the-world/">unprecedented</a> package of economic support means many firms and households are well-placed to weather a short but severe storm.
Short term pain, long term gain
There’s also enormous economic upside if we eliminate the virus and the economy can more or less return to normal.
Schools and offices could re-open, as could bars, cafes and restaurants. Import and export goods would flow freely. International students could still come to Australia with quarantine and testing, and being COVID-free would mean more would choose Australia over alternative destinations.
Not everything could return to normal. International tourism would take a hit, because tight border controls would be maintained until the pandemic subsides abroad. But international tourism accounts for just 2% of our gross domestic product. And domestic travel would boom.
And while the prospect of 90 days of stage-three restrictions is daunting, it poses fewer economic costs than the alternatives.
Health Minister Greg Hunt has rightly <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200413jxwnp/a-cause-for-real-hope-greg-hunt-officially-confirms-australia-is-flattening-the-curve-20200413">ruled out</a> allowing the virus to spread through the community.
Even with a so-called herd immunity strategy, there is little chance that economic life would return to normal for at least 12 months. Spatial distancing would still be needed to ensure our hospitals were not overwhelmed, and fear of infection would prevent many people from going outside. Many businesses would remain closed.
Adopting a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">Goldilocks</a> strategy – where we try to find just the right balance between allowing some economic activity while keeping infections low – would mean fewer die, but would still be bad for the economy.
While there is hope that widespread use of face masks and improvements in tracking and tracing of the disease might change this – there is no certainty.
Sophisticated contract tracing and surveillance were initially effective in helping countries like Singapore to largely stay open, but they too have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big">since resorted</a> to a lockdown to keep infections under control.
In practice, few sectors currently closed could be reopened in Australia under a Goldilocks strategy.
Modellers at the University of Sydney <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144">estimate</a> that even a 20% reduction in spatial distancing compliance would push rates of transmission back above one (that is, where one infected person on average infects more than one other).
That suggests schools could probably re-open, but many workplaces and university classes may have to stay closed.
As would domestic air travel and much non-essential retail. The political lobbying over which industry should have the privilege to re-open first would also be intense.
And whatever is required to keep infection rates stable would need to remain in place until there was herd immunity or a vaccine – and that probably means for as long as 18 months, assuming either happens.
We’ve a choice of a long or a short shutdown
For 18 months of lighter restrictions to be better for the economy than shutting down for another 2-to-3 months to eliminate the virus, the economic costs of a lighter shutdown need to be six to nine times less damaging to the economy than a severe shutdown.
That would require an almost complete removal of spatial distancing, which isn’t on the table.
If there were extended shutdowns, millions of Australians would come out the other side with significant scarring; many would never work again.
Firms that can endure a three-month shutdown without going bust are unlikely to survive for 12 months without further government support. And the budgetary costs of that support would become much bigger for future generations if extended to 12 months or more.
Relaxing most restrictions without sparking a second round of contagion may be possible in time, but only after making enormous new investments in our ability to identify cases and isolate them quickly.
Economist Paul Romer <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">argues for</a> universal testing of Americans every two weeks; others <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/-CgXCr8Dz5s8r3E9gijh1uN?domain=americanprogress.org">call</a> for a new digital surveillance state to enforce self-isolation. In each case the technological obstacles are large, and so we should start investing now. Extending the shut down would give us valuable time to prepare if we fail.
It’s commonly assumed that the public health and economic objectives of managing COVID-19 are in conflict. That’s wrong. Eliminating the virus from Australia is the best strategy for our health and for our economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136488/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-nolan-575166">Jonathan Nolan</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">original article</a>.
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