Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Coronavirus

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
As lockdowns are relaxed around the world and people return to their workplaces, the next challenge will be adapting open office spaces to the new normal of strict personal hygiene and physical distancing.
While the merits and disadvantages of open plan and flexible workspaces have long been debated, the risk they posed of allowing dangerous, highly contagious viruses to spread was rarely (if ever) considered.
But co-working spaces are characterised by shared areas and amenities with surfaces that need constant cleaning. Droplets from a single sneeze can travel <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852">over 7 metres</a>, and surfaces within pods or booths, designed for privacy, could remain <a href="https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-6-130">hazardous for days</a>.
Even in countries such as <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-27/has-new-zealand-done-better-than-australia-on-coronavirus/12182254">Australia and New Zealand</a> where efforts to “flatten the curve” <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-leadership-coronavirus/610237/">have been successful</a> and which have relatively easily controlled borders, it’s fair to ask whether communal workspaces might be a thing of the past.
Perhaps – if vigilant measures are in place – some countries can continue to embrace collaborative, flexible, activity-based workplace designs and the cost savings they represent. But this is <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/14/21211789/coronavirus-office-space-work-from-home-design-architecture-real-estate?subId3=xid%253Afr1586892270547ich">unlikely to be the case in general</a> in the coming years. Even if some organisations can operate with minimal risk there will be an expectation they provide virus-free workplaces should there be future outbreaks.
Working from home
Worldwide, there will undoubtedly be fewer people in the office – now workers have tried working from home, they may find they like it. And organisations may have little choice but to limit the numbers of workers on-site. Staggered shifts, enforced flexitime, and 24/7 operations may become the norm, along with working remotely.
The open plan model has been criticised for everything from lowered productivity, <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2017.0239">less interpersonal interaction</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0003687016302514?via%3Dihub">antisocial behaviour</a>, <a href="http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/34543/1/12020_1101a_Tyler-Merrick.pdf">reduced well-being</a>, too much <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494413000340">distraction</a>, a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272494413000340">lack of privacy</a>, and making workers <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003687018303466?dgcid=rss_sd_all">feel exposed and monitored</a>.
But it has also been shown to <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-plan-offices-can-actually-work-under-certain-conditions-89452">improve cooperation and communication</a>. Whether these innovative spaces are within a large organisation or are communal workspaces where start-ups, freelancers, and contractors can sit together (such as <a href="https://gridakl.com/">GridAKL</a> in Auckland or <a href="https://thecommons.com.au/location/sydney/">The Commons</a> in Sydney), their popularity is undeniable. The sense of community and the ability to share knowledge and ideas are key attractions of co-working.
 
Riding the shared/flexi-space wave have been companies such as WeWork – popularising communal tables within co-working hubs and providing “pods” for private conversations. But there is now little doubt WeWork will be an early casualty of COVID-19. Already in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradthomas/2020/04/15/wework-from-home-now/#5035b4bb7093">financial trouble</a> before the pandemic, WeWork will cut more than 1,000 jobs this month.
But what about the thousands of organisations that retooled their densely populated work environments to encourage flexibility, activity-based work, and movement within and between spaces?
James Muir, CEO of sustainability start-up <a href="https://www.crunchandflourish.com/solutions">Crunch and Flourish</a> has no doubt using co-working offices in central Auckland has been a positive: “We benefited from the great community at GridAKL,” he says. “And before long we were collaborating with other start-ups on marketing and design as well as getting great advice from more experienced entrepreneurs.”
Missing social cues online
Those fortuitous conversations and information exchanges will inevitably become rarer as we avoid the risk of interpersonal contact - and they are almost impossible to mimic online. Personal interaction (even within the office) will be replaced with the already familiar virtual video meeting - or even, as TIME magazine reports, <a href="https://time.com/5801882/coronavirus-spatial-remote-work/">holograms and avatars</a>.
However, communication is more challenging when conducted remotely. We are more persuasive in person, particularly if we <a href="https://doi/10.1037/0022-3514.45.2.241">know the person</a>. Being on a video call is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200421-why-zoom-video-chats-are-so-exhausting?ocid=ww.social.link.email">more draining</a> than a face-to-face chat because workers must concentrate harder to process non-verbal cues such as tone of voice and body language. Anxiety about technology is another barrier, and some find <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.displa.2012.10.009">lack of eye contact</a> in virtual meetings (mimicked by staring at the “dot” of your own camera) disquieting.
New norms of hand sanitising, cleaning equipment and wearing masks will emerge. Handshaking or friendly pecks on the cheek may soon be things of the past, as will family photos and mementos on desks, if they prove too difficult to sanitise.
Aside from behaviours, policies, and attitudes, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/after-coronavirus-the-office-of-the-future-is-the-office-of-the-past">physical office will need to change</a>. Already, a company in the Netherlands has coined the term the “<a href="https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/netherlands/six-feet-office">6 feet office</a>”, aiming to redesign workspaces to help workers maintain social distancing at work.
We may even see the return of the high-walled cubicle, and the introduction of wide corridors and one-way foot traffic, already found in some <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/hospitals-quickly-reshape-treat-covid-19-patients/">hospitals</a>. Activity-based work and hot-desks (which oblige people to move throughout the day) could be replaced by assigned desk arrangements where workers sit back to back.
New builds might incorporate touch-free technology such as voice-activated lifts, doors and cabinets, touchless sinks and soap dispensers, improved air venting and UV lights to disinfect surfaces overnight.
In the meantime, will James Muir resume running Crunch and Flourish from his co-working office after the pandemic? “Yes,” he says, “once the risk of any new cases is under control.”<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137382/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-morrison-296325">Rachel Morrison</a>, Associate Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/auckland-university-of-technology-1137">Auckland University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/goodbye-to-the-crowded-office-how-coronavirus-will-change-the-way-we-work-together-137382">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

No more crowded office, how coronavirus will change the way we work together

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We’re going to benefit from the shutdown imposed by the virus, in infinite ways. It may not feel like it at the moment, and I don’t disregard the pain many are going through, but Australia will look back at this crisis as a time that changed the nation for the better.
The discussion now is about how and when we return to normal. But the new normal will be different to the old. It has to be.
One of the big lessons is that we cannot continue to have so many important things made in one country – or anywhere offshore. There are things we need to make in Australia. Manufacturing is poised for a revival, with benefits in employment. This will be part of a strong economic recovery.
The corporate twits who thought it made sense to locate customer call centres offshore because it saved a few bucks are now reconsidering their strategies. They need to bring customer service back home and in the process they will have fewer angry and frustrated customers. And create jobs in Australia.
The situation has forced us to innovate and to work harder at helping our customers. Real estate has found ways to function without live auctions and open houses. We’re seeing examples of online auctions achieving sales well over the reserve price. One-on-one inspections of properties have taken us back to old service standards and getting to know buyers one-on-one. Everyone benefits.
Many of us have realised how much we value the simple things we took for granted, like meeting friends for a cuppa or taking the family to the beach. When the restrictions are lifted, Australians will party like they never have since the end of World War Two – not extravagantly but by going to cafes, pubs, theatres, parks and beaches. A recent survey indicates people plan to take holidays in Australia. Many of the lost jobs will come back (not all, unfortunately).
Some people have learned, by accident, how to save. The restrictions have stopped us going out and spending. The improvement to the bank balance has been an eye-opener. Now some of us know how to get on top of the mortgage and young adults have been shown a way to save a deposit for a first home. First-home buyers with secure jobs will be busy in the second half of the year.
The resources sector has remained steady in the shutdown period. Queensland locations with links to the mining industry have experienced an uplift in rental demand amid the virus crisis, with rents actually rising. China, our biggest trading partner, is projected by the IMF to experience moderate economic growth this year and a boom next year. I’m expecting a resources boom in Australia as China and other nations get ambitious about economic recovery. Real estate markets influenced by resources links may surge – but investors should proceed with caution, because these are fickle and volatile markets.
A more engaging trend with impacts on real estate is the one I wrote about last week. We can expect an increase in people moving from the big cities and buying in lifestyle areas within an hour or two of the city. This movement has been enhanced by technology which allows people to work remotely – and will be exacerbated by the shutdown, which has forced people to work from home.
Some will make it a permanent arrangement. Expect uplift in markets like the Central Coast and the Southern Highlands in NSW; Ballarat, Bendigo, the Latrobe Valley and elsewhere in Victoria; and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland.
As an aside, the virus has done all of us a favour by delivering a major come-uppance to the ugly bastards who run global oil businesses and regularly hold the world to ransom with their cynical manipulation of supply and prices. We’ve all saved money by needing to fill up our cars less often and paying less when we do. Will it change our habits post-shutdown? Hopefully, but probably not.
The virus has generally done the environment a big favour. The before-and-after shots of some of world’s big cities are a revelation, including some in Australia. There’s been a big reduction in emissions. The greatest benefit of the shutdown would be achieved if we learnt something from that. Will we? I fear we will easily slip back into old habits.
But, amid everything, we’ve learnt who the real heroes are and how much we underpay them. We’ve discovered that we can do without over-rated footie players and self-absorbed corporate executives, but not without under-resourced and under-appreciated nurses. Boris Johnson has learnt that more than most.
And we’ve seen a cultural shift in politics and business. There’s been a refreshing absence of adversarial politics. The country apparently can function without people shouting at one another in Parliament. Let’s make that a permanent change.
Business in many ways has sought to be part of the solution, even including the major banks. The only sectors which haven’t entered into the spirit of pulling together have been insurance and some sections of news media.
Who knows – maybe going out of your way to help people is actually good for business.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The future benefits of the coronavirus crisis: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

Rental listings rising as COVID-19 continues: REA Group

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The state of Victoria has extended its lockdown until mid-May. Kids are learning from home and adults are working from home, but even so, it seems that there is still plenty of time for activities. If you're feeling a little unproductive lately, here's a list we've compiled filled with at-home activities you can complete at any time.

<h2>LIVING ROOM</h2>

<ul>
<li>Rearrange furniture around the house.</li>
	<li>House plants are proven to be good for your health, consider placing one plant or two in the living room. </li>
	<li>Hang some artwork, prints or posters.</li>
	<li>But if you are feeling creative, paint!</li>
	<li>Try interior photography — it helps you view your house in a new light</li>
	<li>Clean the windows and blinds — dust settles very easily in those places.</li>
	<li>Clean the filters in the air conditioner.</li>
	<li>Exercise: there are tons of workout videos on YouTube.</li>
	<li>Post-workout warrants a Netflix binge-watching session.</li>
	<li>And end every busy night with a movie night.</li>
</ul>
<h2>BEDROOM</h2>

<ul>
<li>Declutter, <a href="https://shop.konmari.com/pages/about">Marie Kondo style</a>.</li>
	<li>After that, fill all unwanted clothes into bags. Take these items to charity stores once the lockdown is lifted.</li>
	<li>And after that, organise the bedside drawer and any other drawer or closet in the bedroom.</li>
	<li>Vacuum your bedroom if the floor is carpeted.</li>
	<li>Otherwise, use a lint roller to stick up all the dust and hair in every corner of the bedroom.</li>
	<li>If you are feeling extra productive, wash your pillows, blankets and bedding — sweat and dust accumulate quickly in these, so you should ideally be doing this once every fortnight!</li>
	<li>Create <a href="/news/how-to-effectively-manage-a-remote-workplace-during-social-distancing">a dedicated working space</a> for work or your child’s online classes.</li>
</ul>
<h2>KITCHEN</h2>

<ul>
<li>Try out the recipes you've been meaning to cook. Try making your own ravioli or a homemade chutney. </li>
	<li>Bake your own bread or sweet treats.</li>
	<li>Clean the stovetop — cooking oil, if left to accumulate, deteriorates the stovetop.</li>
	<li>Clean the sink.</li>
	<li>Organize the fridge. Categorise each compartment. Fruits, vegetables, frozen foods, beverages, dairy products, etc. should be in their respective places in the fridge.</li>
	<li>Clear the bins and take out the trash.</li>
	<li>If you are a Masterchef with loads of kitchen tools, check out how to create more storage for cutleries and other appliances <a href="/expert-insights/buying/25-kitchen-storage-ideas-for-small-spaces">here</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h2>GARAGE</h2>

<ul>
<li>Like other rooms in the house, start by decluttering! The garage stores mountains of unwanted items, so it is finally time to officially throw these unwanted items out.</li>
	<li>Mount a pegboard wall. Hang up your home tools, e.g. hammer, wrench, scissors etc.</li>
	<li>Create storage space for sports equipment.</li>
	<li>Create storage space for gardening tools.</li>
	<li>Create <a href="https://www.bunnings.com.au/diy-advice/outdoor/garage/diy-multiple-bike-rack">a designated space</a> to park bicycles vertically.</li>
	<li>Build <a href="https://www.bunnings.com.au/diy-advice/outdoor/structures/how-to-make-a-diy-bin-storage-unit">simple mini shelves for extra storage space</a> to keep smaller accessories.</li>
	<li>For miscellaneous items that you’d still like to keep, store them in containers. </li>
	<li>Wash your car</li>
</ul>
<h2>BACKYARD</h2>

<ul>
<li>Have a backyard brunch with everyone in the house. If you live alone, organise a Skype brunch session with a friend!</li>
	<li>Mow the lawn.</li>
	<li>Water your plants.</li>
	<li>Trim bushes or weeds around the garden.</li>
	<li>Otherwise, plant and grow some flowers and vegetables.</li>
	<li>Fix the fencing.</li>
</ul>
If you have any other ideas, let us know in the comments!
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jieyee_46282

Feeling unproductive during COVID-19? Here is a master list of home activities to do during the lockdown

GUEST OBSERVATION

Electricity demand in Australia has barely budged since COVID-19 took hold. Many may be wondering: after months spent largely at home, are huge household power bills on the way?

The answer, largely, is no. But as the pandemic forces hundreds of thousands of Australians into unemployment, some will still struggle to pay their electricity bills.

A mass failure to pay would threaten the viability of electricity retailers. If some folded, this would reduce market competition and drive up energy costs for everyone.

So let’s take a look at how stay-at-home measures are affecting energy demand, and what the coronavirus pandemic means for electricity consumers in Australia.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329907/original/file-20200422-47820-1ttkzt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

The unemployed may struggle to pay their electricity bills this winter. Julian Smith/AAP

A mixed bag

We’ve assessed how social distancing restrictions have affected both demand for electricity and “mobility” (the movement of people) in Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK.

Interestingly, changes in electricity demand and mobility go together and were significantly different across the countries after strict stay-at-home rules were imposed in late March.

Grid-based electricity demand in both the UK and New Zealand has declined significantly (20 per cent and 15 per cent respectively). Demand is largely unchanged in Australia and has declined about 5 per cent in the US overall, relative to the baseline.

Among Australian states, electricity demand has declined in New South Wales by around 5 per cent, and increased slightly in Western Australia and Tasmania. Demand is largely unchanged in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland compared to the baseline.

The relative strictness of social distancing policies seems to be the main driver of changes in electricity demand. For example, unlike New Zealand, Australia’s construction industry was not subject to lockdown restrictions, which meant electricity use in that sector has continued.

Of course, many factors affect electricity demand, and further analysis is required to isolate the precise impact of social distancing policies.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329908/original/file-20200422-47832-1l6fjv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

Electricity demand in Australia has changed little since stay-at-home regulations were introduced. Scott Barbour/AAP

Out and about

To crosscheck changes in electricity demand, we examined the change in the movement of people to retail, recreation and workplace locations as measured in Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. These reports use location history data from users to create a picture of how people are moving around the community.

Mobility changes are consistent with the change in electricity demand: since stay-at-home restrictions were imposed, falls in mobility have been about twice as large in New Zealand and the UK as in Australia.

Mobility in the US states of New York and California has declined more than in Australia, but less than in the UK and New Zealand.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329909/original/file-20200422-47841-wu09r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

An empty London street. Electricity demand and mobility in the UK has fallen since social distancing was enforced. SOPA Images

What to expect this winter

In Australia, electricity demand from households has increased slightly as millions of people stay at home, prompting warnings of bill shock. But activities such as boiling the kettle and cooking more often, and keeping lights on all day, do not make a big difference to consumption.

This will change in winter, when we need to keep our houses warm. Households using split-system air conditioners for heating can expect seasonally adjusted electricity bills to be around 10-20 per cent higher if they’re heating the house 24 hours a day, rather than just briefly in the morning and again in the late afternoon and evening.

But demand will vary greatly depending on weather and a home’s size, insulation, efficiency of heater and so on.

Averaged across all Australian households (and assuming social distancing regulations continue to apply in winter), we expect total residential electricity consumption to be a little higher this winter than in previous years.

Differences will be more pronounced in the colder states: Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and to a lesser extent New South Wales. The warmer states of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory will see little change.

Overall, slightly higher demand for electricity in Australian households over winter will probably offset lower commercial and retail demand.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329910/original/file-20200422-47784-pzh8de.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

Many Australians are worried about bill shock this winter. Dan Peled/AAP

Threat to competition

​ 
While overall electricity demand might not shift much in Australia, skyrocketing unemployment may create a surge in the number of households struggling to pay their energy bills, even with Jobkeeper payments.

Long before the pandemic, regulators, governments, retailers and customer groups had worked to improve consumer protections such as hardship policies. These measures are now likely to be put to the test.

There are signs that electricity retailers are already anxious about looming non-payment. For example, some retailers have offered incentives for customers to take up direct debit, or cash-back for bills paid in advance.

Retailers pay for both the electricity produced, and its transport. If many thousands of customers can’t pay their bills, some retailers may become financially unviable. The smaller retailers have the weakest balance sheets and are most at risk.

But these small companies are the lifeblood of competition in Australia’s retail electricity markets. Losing them would, in time, translate into higher prices.

In Queensland, the government has announced assistance to electricty consumers in response to COVID-19.

If utility non-payment spirals and retailer viability is seriously threatened, governments and regulators might consider ways to share the risks more broadly, to protect competition and consumers. 
Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University; Kelly Burns, Senior Research Fellow, Victoria University, and Steven Percy, Senior research fellow, Victoria University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license

Staying at home for months is unlikely to lead to an eye-watering electricity bill

No state or territory will be spared from Covid-19 fall-out: NAB  

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In recent weeks a growing chorus of Australian commentators has called for social distancing measures to be eased or radically curtailed.
Some have <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/coronavirus-lockdown-hysteria-is-ruining-10-million-lives/news-story/fd5307f58302cf1ab928decb07b2619c">claimed </a>the lives saved by the lockdowns are not worth the damage they are causing to the economy.
Others have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/baby-boomers-won-t-like-it-but-next-step-after-lockdown-is-herd-immunity-20200415-p54k0t">claimed</a> the case for easing is strengthened by the fact many of the hardest hit by COVID-19 are elderly or suffering from other conditions.
Some might expect economists, of all people, to endorse this calculus.
But as economists we categorically reject these views, and we believe they do not represent the majority of our profession.
We believe a callous indifference to life is morally objectionable, and that it would be a mistake to expect a premature loosening of restrictions to be beneficial to the economy and jobs, given the rapid rate of contagion.
It is wishful thinking to believe we face a choice between a buoyant economy without social distancing and a deep recession with social distancing.
In a world with COVID-19, there are no good choices.
The best we can do is limit the spread of COVID-19 as much as practicable and rely on the strength of the government’s balance sheet to cushion the impact on the workers and businesses hardest hit.
Our success to date is a direct result of the measures taken, but we cannot afford to be complacent.
We recognise there are trade-offs on some margins, but we urge the government to work closely with public health experts to carefully determine at what time, in what ways, and in which sectors, to begin lifting restrictions.
There should be no doubt the cost of getting this wrong is very high.
Open Letter from Australian Economists
19 April, 2020
Dear Prime Minister and Members of the National Cabinet,
The undersigned economists have witnessed and participated in the public debate about when to relax social-distancing measures in Australia. Some commentators have expressed the view there is a trade-off between the public health and economic aspects of the crisis. We, as economists, believe this is a false distinction.
We cannot have a functioning economy unless we first comprehensively address the public health crisis. The measures put in place in Australia, at the border and within the states and territories, have reduced the number of new infections. This has put Australia in an enviable position compared to other countries, and we must not squander that success.
We recognise the measures taken to date have come at a cost to economic activity and jobs, but believe these are far outweighed by the lives saved and the avoided economic damage due to an unmitigated contagion. We believe strong fiscal measures are a much better way to offset these economic costs than prematurely loosening restrictions.
As has been foreshadowed in your public remarks, our borders will need to remain under tight control for an extended period. It is vital to keep social-distancing measures in place until the number of infections is very low, our testing capacity is expanded well beyond its already comparatively high level, and widespread contact tracing is available.
A second-wave outbreak would be extremely damaging to the economy, in addition to involving tragic and unnecessary loss of life.
Sincerely,
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-booth-153308">Professor Alison Booth</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-borland-1079">Professor Jeff Borland</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lisa-cameron-986169">Professorial Research Fellow Lisa Cameron</a>, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/efrem-castelnuovo-145615">Professor Efrem Castelnuovo</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-ann-cobb-clark-729631">Professor Deborah Cobb-Clark</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/ashley-craig/home">Assistant Professor Ashley Craig</a>, University of Michigan
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Professor Chris Edmond</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://nisvanerkal.net/">Professor Nisvan Erkal</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-freebairn-90">Professor John Freebairn</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/renee-fry-mckibbin-673270">Professor Renée Fry-McKibbin</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joshua-gans-399">Professor Joshua Gans</a>, University of Toronto
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jacob-k-goeree-562903">Professor Jacob Goeree</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/quentin-grafton-1941">Professor Quentin Grafton</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://www.rse.anu.edu.au/about-us/our-people/people/?profile=Simon-Grant">Professor Simon Grant</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pauline-grosjean-343133">Professor Pauline Grosjean</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jane-hall-1280">Distinguished Professor Jane Hall</a>, University of Technology Sydney
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Assistant Professor Steven Hamilton</a>, George Washington University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-harper-8628">Professor Ian Harper</a>, Melbourne Business School
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Professor Richard Holden</a>, UNSW Business School
<a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/david-johnston">Professor David Johnston</a>, Monash University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/flavio-menezes-4124">Professor Flavio Menezes</a>, University of Queensland
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/warwick-mckibbin-9129">Professor Warwick McKibbin</a>, Australian National University
<a href="https://economics.uchicago.edu/directory/simon-mongey">Assistant Professor Simon Mongey</a>, University of Chicago
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-morley-9918">Professor James Morley</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="http://www.josephlyonmullins.com/">Professor Joseph Mullins</a>, University of Minnesota
<a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/140028-abigail-payne">Professor Abigail Payne</a>, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Professor Bruce Preston</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sue-richardson-552530">Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson</a>, Flinders University
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stefanie-schurer-333154">Professor Stefanie Schurer</a>, University of Sydney
<a href="https://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/our-people/staff/economics/kalvinder-shields">Professor Kalvinder Shields</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-quiggin-2084">Professor John Quiggin</a>, University of Queensland
<a href="http://www.simonrquinn.com/">Associate Professor Simon Quinn</a>, Oxford University
Economic Advisor James Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
<a href="http://tomwilkening.com/">Professor Tom Wilkening</a>, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-wolfers-429743">Professor Justin Wolfers</a>, University of Michigan
<a href="https://lens.monash.edu/@yves-zenou">Professor Yves Zenou</a>, Monash University
<hr>
Full list of signatories available on the economists open letter <a href="http://covid19openletter.net/">website</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136686/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Steven Hamilton</a>, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Chris Edmond</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/open-letter-from-174-australian-economists-dont-sacrifice-health-for-the-economy-136686">original article</a>.
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Open letter from 174 Australian economists: don’t sacrifice health for the economy

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In the past week, a sharp decline in sentiment has been seen amongst Australian consumers and business. In the US, President Trump and the market remain optimistic on the ability of their economy to rebound quickly from this crisis, but data to hand is increasingly challenging this view.
Beginning with our business sector, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200414BullAustralianbusinessconditionsMarch.pdf">the NAB business survey</a> reported a dramatic decline in confidence, the index declining from -2pts in February to -66pts in March as severe restrictions over trading and social gatherings were implemented. The March level of the index compares to a reading of around -30 at the depths of the GFC, and -24 in the 1990’s recession.
Conditions also fell sharply this month, from 0pts to -21pts. This outcome is worse than the GFC (-17pts), but not as bad as the 1990’s recession (-39pts). All the components of conditions were weak in March, and the experience of businesses across the states was uniform. Unsurprisingly, business is reticent to invest in this climate, the capex expectations index falling to -23, below the GFC low of -20. Fiscal measures introduced to accelerate business investment are then set to struggle.
Turning to the Australian consumer, in April our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf">Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey</a> registered the single biggest monthly decline in the 47 year history of the survey, taking the Index beyond its GFC lows to 75.6, levels only seen during the deep recessions of the early 1990s (64.6) and early 1980s (75.5). As detailed by Chief Economist Bill Evans, it is “pertinent to note that the lows in previous recessions were reached after one to two years of continuous deterioration compared to the one month collapse we have seen here”.
Consumers’ view of the ‘economy, next 12 months’ recorded its biggest monthly fall on record, a 31% drop to 53.7, in line with GFC lows. Households are however still optimistic that this is only a temporary shock, with the ‘economy next 5yrs’ sub-index only down 3.8% to 87 – still above this cycle’s lows of 85.5 averaged during the second half of 2014.
Views on family finances were also hit in April, though the cost was much less severe than for immediate expectations of the economy (down 14.8% for ‘finances, versus a year ago’, and 6.6% for ‘finances in the year ahead’). While households are hopeful regarding their financial position, very clearly they are taking preventative measures when it comes to spending, ‘time to buy a major household item’ plunging 31.6% in the month – also its largest ever shock. As detailed in the survey release, health concerns and social distancing requirements are likely on the minds of consumers, in addition to their finances. 
A similar argument can be posited for housing, with sentiment around the sector having collapsed in April. ‘Time to buy a dwelling’ fell 26.6%, and house price expectations declined by over half (-50.8%). These outcomes are discussed in more detail by <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42983">Chief Economist Bill Evans</a> in our weekly video update, along with the responses to a number of special questions on the experience of consumers in this outbreak – <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/April/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf">also highlighted in the bulletin</a>. 
Turning to the labour market, while <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42990">the unemployment rate</a> was little changed in March at 5.2%, Westpac-MI unemployment expectations continued to rise, another 8% increase seen in April. Helpfully, the current level for the index of 130 is well below that seen in the GFC and the 1990’s recession, circa 180 and 170 respectively. Presumably, the Government’s JobKeeper package has given households some confidence in the labour market. It is also likely that households view the threat of job loss as temporary because it is being caused by a virus. On this point, while Westpac expect the unemployment rate to peak around 9% mid-2020, by the end of 2020, it should be back near 7%.
The significance of the JobKeeper program to Australia’s economic outlook was a key topic discussed by Chief Economist Bill Evans in our inaugural <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42984">Market Outlook in conversation podcast</a>. In this edition, Bill was joined by our Head of Financial Market Strategy Robert Rennie who covered off on key financial market developments, particularly with respect to the Australian and US dollar.
Turning to the US, the economic situation they face as a result of COVID-19 is becoming more and more severe. In just four weeks, around 22 million US citizens have now filed for unemployment benefits after losing their jobs. This loss will see the unemployment rate rise from 4.4% at March to around 15% in April. Further job loss has to be expected, and so the peak for the employment rate will be closer to 20% come mid-2020. Despite the benefit of precautionary buying in March, retail sales have already been hit hard, falling 8.7% in March, the worst outcome on record. Another, likely larger, decline will be seen in April, with durable goods and discretionary services expected to be the hardest hit.
While a sharp reduction in consumption is the prime shock coming to the US as a result of this crisis, investment in housing and the business sector has also been hit hard, and will remain weak for some time. Both Westpac and the IMF expect a contraction in US GDP of around 6.0% in 2020. While the IMF forecast a V-shaped recovery, circa 5.0% growth in 2021, we are much more circumspect, instead anticipating year-average growth around 1.0%. Hot spots such as New York City look to be coming under control, but the virus has now spread across the US, making it difficult to trace and contain. This will delay a return to normal conditions, with wide-ranging economic consequence. 
ELLIOT CLARKE is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42750" target="_blank">senior economist at Westpac</a> 
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COVID-19’s terrible toll: Elliot Clarke

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It’s hard to forget the thick smoke plumes <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling-129772">blanketing</a> Australia’s cities and towns during the black summer. But consecutive days of smoke haze can also come from planned burns to <a href="https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/meyer2.pdf">reduce fuel loads</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/logging-burns-conceal-industrial-pollution-in-the-name-of-community-safety-96712">fires set after logging</a>.
Expanding planned burning is often touted as a way to mitigate the risk of bushfires rising with climate change. But the autumn burn-off season is bad news for the COVID-19 pandemic, as smoke exposure can make us more vulnerable to respiratory illnesses.
In fact, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/months-of-haze-doctors-demand-smoke-pollution-check-as-pandemic-raises-burn-off-fear-20200407-p54hy4">doctors in the Yarra Valley</a>, Victoria, are campaigning for better air quality monitors. They argue burn-offs are a serious health risk during this pandemic, particularly with asthma inhaler stocks in <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/interview-with-deborah-knight-on-2gb-about-covid-19">limited supply</a>.
Yes, planned burns can be useful, but they offer limited protection from bushfires and, right now, they pose an immediate health risk. It’s a reasonable bet that planned burning will do us more harm than good in 2020.
The same can be said of <a href="https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/ambient-air-quality/topic/2016/fine-particulate-matter-pm25">other sources of smoke</a>, including from logging regeneration burns, wood heaters, backyard burn-offs and burning fossil fuels.
How does smoke from bushfires hurt our lungs?
Smoke pollution from the black summer <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.5694/mja2.50545">may have killed</a> more than 400 people, and sent 4,000 people to the hospital.
Bushfire smoke includes fine particles – less than 2.5 micrometers in size (one micrometre is a ten-thousanth of a centimetre) – that can reach to the ends of our lungs and enter the bloodstream. They <a href="https://www.mua.org.au/sites/mua.org.au/files/uploads/201912%20-%20CAR%20factsheet%20-%20Bushfire%20Smoke%20and%20Health.pdf">compromise our immune system</a>, weakening our <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340343851_Environmental_pollutants_modulate_RNA_and_DNA_virus-activated_miRNA-155_expression_and_innate_immune_system_responses_Insights_into_new_immunomodulative_mechanisms">antiviral defences</a>.
Smoke also has a toxic mix of metals and organic chemicals that include <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719347874">known carcinogens</a>. Even short term exposure increases hospital admissions and ambulance call-outs in Australia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, cardiovascular attacks and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-poor-air-quality-from-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health-126835">other health effects</a>.
It’s not just humans – health impacts from smoke <a href="https://ca.audubon.org/news/birds-suffer-air-pollution-just-we-do">extends to wildlife</a>, with smoke reducing their ability to mount an immune response and <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8051/meta">increasing their stress</a>.
The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-25847-1">ecological effects</a> of smoke can also compromise animal survival, including making it harder for them to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa87ed/meta">forage</a>.
Exacerbating COVID-19
Smoke exposure causes inflammation in the lungs, as does coronavirus infection. But it’s a not a simple equation; they likely act in a synergistic way with complex interactions.
Recent studies have linked worse outcomes of COVID-19 infections with <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7083240/">long-term cigarette smoking</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749120320601?via%3Dihub#bib6">air pollution</a>, both of which have similar chemical components to <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es981277q">wood smoke</a>.
New research from the USA shows average air pollution with one extra microgram of fine particles per cubic metre is associated with a 15% higher death rate from <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid-pm/files/pm_and_covid_mortality.pdf">COVID-19</a>.
In other words, if COVID-19 has a base death rate of about <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext">1 in 100</a>, and fine particles in air pollution span from near one microgram/litre to higher than 12 in major <a href="https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/covid-pm/files/pm_and_covid_mortality.pdf">urban centres</a>, then the death rate could more than double to 2.65 per 100 infections.
Research into other viral infections shows just two hours of exposure to smoke can make people <a href="https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10.1164/rccm.201807-1287OC">more susceptible</a> to respiratory infections. But what we’re uncertain about is if short term exposure to smoke would illicit the same dire consequences – dramatically higher death rates – as there appears to be with long-term exposure to air pollutants.
What’s more, men could be more at risk than women. Men find it harder to fight off the flu than women, and prior exposure to wood smoke can make flu symptoms <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6467314/">worse in men</a>.
Planned burning is under pressure
The amount and pattern of planned burning is under pressure to change. Some <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-only-one-way-to-make-bushfires-less-powerful-take-out-the-stuff-that-burns-129323">commentators</a> are campaigning for increased planned burning, but others are <a href="https://theconversation.com/percentage-targets-for-planned-burning-are-blunt-tools-that-dont-work-39254">asking for less</a>, and the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522">Victorian firefighter chief has said</a> it’s no silver bullet.
While planned burns aim to reduce wildfire, it’s <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5330&amp;context=smhpapers">not yet clear</a> whether this will ultimately alter the amount of smoke over communities.
On the one hand, planned burns could pump more smoke into the atmosphere than wildfires because <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5330&amp;context=smhpapers">larger areas need to be burned</a>, smoke can build up and <a href="https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/meyer2.pdf">hang around for longer</a>, and planned burns could produce <a href="https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5330&amp;context=smhpapers">more toxic smoke by burning wetter fuels</a>.
On the other hand, planned burns have lower severity and are <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16167">more patchy</a> than wildfires, so burn less of the vegetation in a given area, potentially producing less smoke.
What about protection? Planned burns can make <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/CIB/cib0203/03Cib08">firefighting easier for a few years after fire</a>. But current rates of planned burning give little protection for houses when wildfires are driven by <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire-127022">extreme weather</a>.
Planned burns within a few hundred metres of houses <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029212">can give protection</a> but must occur frequently, such as less than every <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18128">five years</a>. We shouldn’t expect towns to endure local smoke pollution this often.
A matter of timing
In the context of COVID-19, the seasonal timing of fires is also important.
Flu risk is lowest in the <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/flu-trends-in-australia">summer months</a>, and COVID-19 might <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/dreaded-duo-australia-will-likely-hit-peak-coronavirus-cases-around-flu-season">peak in late winter</a>. This means smoke from wildfires in summer may have less impact than smoke from planned burns in autumn and spring.
 
The coming summer is unlikely to bring a repeat of last summer’s fires because so much forest is already burnt.
So, even if COVID-19 spills over into 2021, the compounding smoke risk from wildfires is likely to be lower than smoke from planned burns in autumn and spring.
Not worth it
All things considered, it’s not worth the health risk to conduct planned burns, logging regeneration burns or other burning this year while the pandemic continues to sweep through the country, particularly in areas close to towns such as the Yarra Valley.
Still, whether or not planned burns will change our total exposure to smoke from bushfires, the effects of climate change are <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083699">definitely bringing more fire</a> and with it more smoke.
This means we can expect to have to deal with interactions between virus risks and smoke risks more often in the future.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136230/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/don-driscoll-17432">Don Driscoll</a>, Professor in Terrestrial Ecology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brian-oliver-113740">Brian Oliver</a>, Research Leader in Respiratory cellular and molecular biology at the Woolcock Institute of Medical Research and Professor, Faculty of Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/courtney-alice-waugh-1032568">Courtney Alice Waugh</a>, Associate Professor in Immunology and Disease, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/nord-university-3607">Nord University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marcel-klaassen-425221">Marcel Klaassen</a>, Alfred Deakin Professor and Chair in Ecology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/veerle-l-b-jaspers-1032459">Veerle L. B. Jaspers</a>, Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/norwegian-university-of-science-and-technology-715">Norwegian University of Science and Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-smoke-from-autumn-burn-offs-could-make-coronavirus-symptoms-worse-its-not-worth-the-risk-136230">original article</a>.
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The smoke from autumn burn-offs could make coronavirus symptoms worse

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GUEST OBSERVER
Less than a month after restrictions first took effect, Australia appears to have contained the spread of COVID-19 more successfully than we could have possibly imagined.
But we’ve done so at unimaginable cost: large swathes of the economy have been shut down, leaving the livelihoods of millions of Australians on hold indefinitely. With new cases now on the decline, the conversation at today’s National Cabinet meeting will turn to what can reopen, and when.
But the economic costs of re-opening prematurely could be enormous.
The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">least costly</a> economic strategy is eliminating COVID-19 from Australia altogether. Growing epidemiological evidence suggests it may be possible for us to eliminate coronavirus within the next two to three months.
New Zealand is pursuing such a strategy.
Australia’s state and territory governments should <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/covid-19-there-are-only-two-options-from-here-one-is-more-deadly/">explicitly declare</a> that they want to eliminate the virus, and maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are down to zero or close to it.
And in the meantime we’ll accrue invaluable intelligence from other countries about how best to emerge from lockdowns, and plan accordingly.
There’s no doubt this strategy would have big short-term economic costs.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that severe shutdowns like our level-three restrictions wipe out almost a quarter of economic activity, costing Australia’s economy about 2% of annual GDP for each month they remain in place.
This means a three-month shutdown would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy-135026">shave</a> six percentage points off Australia’s annual GDP.
But the Government’s <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/covid-19-australias-fiscal-response-is-now-among-the-biggest-in-the-world/">unprecedented</a> package of economic support means many firms and households are well-placed to weather a short but severe storm.
Short term pain, long term gain
There’s also enormous economic upside if we eliminate the virus and the economy can more or less return to normal.
Schools and offices could re-open, as could bars, cafes and restaurants. Import and export goods would flow freely. International students could still come to Australia with quarantine and testing, and being COVID-free would mean more would choose Australia over alternative destinations.
Not everything could return to normal. International tourism would take a hit, because tight border controls would be maintained until the pandemic subsides abroad. But international tourism accounts for just 2% of our gross domestic product. And domestic travel would boom.
And while the prospect of 90 days of stage-three restrictions is daunting, it poses fewer economic costs than the alternatives.
Health Minister Greg Hunt has rightly <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200413jxwnp/a-cause-for-real-hope-greg-hunt-officially-confirms-australia-is-flattening-the-curve-20200413">ruled out</a> allowing the virus to spread through the community.
Even with a so-called herd immunity strategy, there is little chance that economic life would return to normal for at least 12 months. Spatial distancing would still be needed to ensure our hospitals were not overwhelmed, and fear of infection would prevent many people from going outside. Many businesses would remain closed.
Adopting a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">Goldilocks</a> strategy – where we try to find just the right balance between allowing some economic activity while keeping infections low – would mean fewer die, but would still be bad for the economy.
While there is hope that widespread use of face masks and improvements in tracking and tracing of the disease might change this – there is no certainty.
Sophisticated contract tracing and surveillance were initially effective in helping countries like Singapore to largely stay open, but they too have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big">since resorted</a> to a lockdown to keep infections under control.
In practice, few sectors currently closed could be reopened in Australia under a Goldilocks strategy.
Modellers at the University of Sydney <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144">estimate</a> that even a 20% reduction in spatial distancing compliance would push rates of transmission back above one (that is, where one infected person on average infects more than one other).
That suggests schools could probably re-open, but many workplaces and university classes may have to stay closed.
As would domestic air travel and much non-essential retail. The political lobbying over which industry should have the privilege to re-open first would also be intense.
And whatever is required to keep infection rates stable would need to remain in place until there was herd immunity or a vaccine – and that probably means for as long as 18 months, assuming either happens.
We’ve a choice of a long or a short shutdown
For 18 months of lighter restrictions to be better for the economy than shutting down for another 2-to-3 months to eliminate the virus, the economic costs of a lighter shutdown need to be six to nine times less damaging to the economy than a severe shutdown.
That would require an almost complete removal of spatial distancing, which isn’t on the table.
If there were extended shutdowns, millions of Australians would come out the other side with significant scarring; many would never work again.
Firms that can endure a three-month shutdown without going bust are unlikely to survive for 12 months without further government support. And the budgetary costs of that support would become much bigger for future generations if extended to 12 months or more.
Relaxing most restrictions without sparking a second round of contagion may be possible in time, but only after making enormous new investments in our ability to identify cases and isolate them quickly.
Economist Paul Romer <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">argues for</a> universal testing of Americans every two weeks; others <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/-CgXCr8Dz5s8r3E9gijh1uN?domain=americanprogress.org">call</a> for a new digital surveillance state to enforce self-isolation. In each case the technological obstacles are large, and so we should start investing now. Extending the shut down would give us valuable time to prepare if we fail.
It’s commonly assumed that the public health and economic objectives of managing COVID-19 are in conflict. That’s wrong. Eliminating the virus from Australia is the best strategy for our health and for our economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136488/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-nolan-575166">Jonathan Nolan</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">original article</a>.
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