Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Coronavirus

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Coronavirus continued to make headlines this week; but for the economy, sentiment was the focus.
While Australian consumer sentiment firmed in February according to our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/February/er20200212BullConsumerSentiment.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac–MI survey</a>, at 95.5 the index remains well below its long-run average, suggesting consumers remain pessimistic. This downbeat mood has been in place since mid-2019 and has coincided with a pronounced deterioration in consumer spending momentum.
Economic conditions ‘next 12 months’ and ‘next 5 years’ both bounced back in February but remain below the level of November 2019 and are only in line with their respective long-run averages. This is despite continued strength in employment growth as well as the considerable policy easing undertaken by both the RBA and Federal Government in 2019.
Given this policy context, more concerning still is that ‘family finances versus a year ago’ fell again in February to be back near its recent low and well below average. ‘Finances, next 12 months’ is almost 11% below the average of first-half 2019, and also materially below its long-run average. Unsurprisingly, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ index is depressed, 8 percentage points below average.
Interestingly, ‘time to buy a dwelling’ reversed January’s gain to be back near its recent low in February. On a longer view, at its current level of 112, this index is well below 2019’s peak of 127 but still materially above 2017’s low of 90. At play here is arguably a reduced belief amongst households that further interest rate cuts will be seen in 2020 as well the impact of housing affordability.
House price growth expectations remain strong nonetheless, having surged 70% over the nine months to January 2020. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42085" target="_blank">December housing finance</a> data points to strengthening demand amongst owner occupiers, the value of loans up 23% since May and back near 2017–18’s peak. Investors are more circumspect. While 16% above the May low, the value of loans is still comparatively low – in line with the 2012 experience.
Turning to the business sector, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/February/er20200211BullAustralianBusinessConditions2020Jan.pdf" target="_blank">the NAB business survey</a> indicates confidence remained absent and conditions weak in late January. There are clearly a number of global and domestic headwinds for confidence. However, the greater concern is conditions. Profitability is weak, while trading conditions and forward orders are poor. The employment index has also lost momentum to now point to job gains circa 16k per month compared to 25k in mid-2019. Assuming flat participation, this would see the unemployment rate grind higher in 2020 – the opposite of what the RBA needs to see to have confidence that wages, growth and consequently inflation will firm as set out in their February Statement on Monetary Policy and Governor Lowe’s appearances last week (summarised in our <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42109" target="_blank">February Market Outlook</a>).   
Following the RBA last week, the latest MPS from the RBNZ set out their view of the outlook. On the assumption of a very mild coronavirus impact, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/New_Zealand/2020/February_2020/MPS_Review_February_2020_-_Westpac_NZ.pdf" target="_blank">the RBNZ are sanguine on the outlook</a> and expect to keep the stance of policy unchanged hence. This is as our New Zealand economics team anticipated, but more optimistic than markets were positioned for. Both the labour market and inflation views support this adjustment, but the most prominent rationale for the change of stance is the Government’s plan to increase spending. A cash rate cut is still expected in August by Westpac New Zealand, but this will principally be as a result of a weaker global backdrop which will put sentiment and growth at risk. A stronger New Zealand dollar, which we expect, would also weigh on inflation.
Moving to the rest of the world, our latest Market Outlook expands on t<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42083" target="_blank">he key economic effects of coronavirus</a> and encapsulates all of the changes seen in the global and domestic economies since our last edition back in December. Succinctly for Australia: we anticipate our economy will be materially weaker in 2020 than the RBA currently anticipates; importantly, this is only partly attributable to summer’s bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak. Further, for the global economy, risks are clearly skewed to the downside.
Developments in <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42131" target="_blank">global commodity markets</a> highlight both the immediate loss from coronavirus as well as the risks to global production. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42113" target="_blank">Global FX markets</a> however view this uncertainty as being contained in Asia, arguably because central banks elsewhere are seen as both willing and able to act. This is particularly the case for the US which has received a solid bid as a safe-haven. While <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42132" target="_blank">the Australian dollar</a> has taken a tumble in line with commodities, it will likely find a base and could strengthen in late-2020 if the RBA does not counteract the US rate cuts we forecast with concerted monetary easing here. Absent this step, Australia’s competitiveness and corporate profitability could become impaired, reducing the probability of the lift back to trend GDP growth we currently anticipate in 2021.
ELLIOT CLARKE is a senior economist at Westpac 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Coronavirus is not the only risk Australia faces: Elliot Clarke

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EXPERT OBSERVER
2020 has seen a very noisy start to the year with one major event with significant human and investment market implications after another.
For Australia it started with an intensification of the bushfires but moved on to a significant ramping up of US/Iran tensions where, according to President Trump, war came “closer than you thought” and now the coronavirus outbreak is creating fears of a global pandemic and a big hit to global economic activity.
These are scary in terms of their human consequences, but also in terms of the potential economic fallout and what it means for investors.
The coronavirus outbreak in particular continues to pose significant uncertainty around the short-term economic outlook. In terms of the key things to watch there is some good news with signs of a reported slowing in new cases in China and still limited transmission outside China (which has 99% of cases). And the mortality rate at just over 2% remains lower than with SARS.
Against this there remains much debate about the true number of cases, it’s common in outbreaks to see periods of stabilisation only to be followed by a spike in cases and the disruption to economic activity in China and from global travel bans remain significant all of which makes it easy to imagine the worst in terms of economic consequences. Each week China remains say 2/3rds shut it knocks 1.3% off its GDP or 0.25% directly off global GDP.
Then again much of 2018 and 2019 saw endless talk about how much the trade war was going to knock off global growth. More fundamentally, the coronavirus outbreak is part of a seemingly never-ending worry list which is receiving an ever-higher prominence as the information age enables the rapid dissemination of news, opinion and noise. But as Frank Zappa warned “information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom”. The danger is that information overload is making us worse investors as we focus on one worry after another resulting in ever shorter investment horizons.
Are the worries more worrying than ever?
When I was a teenager in the 1970s I used to bemoan my grandmother for reading too much gloom into the nightly TV news and telling me that the world is much worse today than when she was young….when there was WW1, Spanish influenza that reportedly killed around 50 million people, the Great Depression and WW2 when her brother was killed.
However, now it seems the worry list is even bigger. Yes, there is a fundamental element as global growth is slower, technological disruption is leading to worker anxiety and inflated expectations, and the world seems awash in geopolitical risks. But there is a huge psychological aspect to this that is combining with the increasing availability of information and intensifying competition amongst various forms of media for clicks, that is magnifying perceptions around various worries.
We all suffer from a behavioural trait that in its financial manifestation is known as "loss aversion" in that a loss in financial wealth is felt much more distastefully than the beneficial impact of the same sized gain. This probably reflects the evolution of the human brain in the Pleistocene age when the trick was to avoid being eaten by a sabre-toothed tiger or squashed by a woolly mammoth. This makes us biased to be more risk averse and on the lookout for threats which leaves us more predisposed to bad news stories as opposed to good news stories.
So bad news and gloom find a more ready market than good news or balanced commentary as it appeals to our instinct to look for threats. Hence “bad new sells”. Of course, this has always been the case so there is nothing new here.
The big change though is that we are now exposed to more information in relation to everything including our investments. This is great in the sense that we can check things, analyse them and sound informed easier than ever. But often we have no way of weighing such information and no time to do so.
If we can’t filter it, it becomes information overload and noise. This can be bad for investors as when faced with more (and often bad) news we can freeze up and make the wrong decisions with our investment as our natural “loss aversion” combines with what is called the “recency bias” that sees people give more weight to recent events which can see investors project recent bad news into the future and so sell after a fall.
Finally, the problem is being compounded by an explosion in media outlets all competing for your attention.
We are now bombarded with economic and financial news and opinions with 24/7 coverage by web sites, subscription services, finance updates, dedicated TV and online channels, etc. And in competing for your attention, bad news and gloom trumps good news and balanced commentary as “bad news sells.”
So naturally it seems that the bad news is ‘badder’ and the worries more worrying than ever. Google the words “the coming financial crisis” and you get 236 million search results - up from 115 million when I did it 18 months ago.
The trouble is that there is no evidence that all this noise is making us better investors. Average returns are no higher than in the past. A concern is that the combination of a massive ramp up in information combined with our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news is making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery and more short term focussed.
 Five ways to manage the perpetual worry list
So here we take another look at five ways to manage the worry list and turn down the noise:
Firstly, put the latest worry list in context. Remember that there has always been an endless stream of worries. Here's a list of the worries of the last five years that have weighed on markets at various points: deflation; commodity/oil crash; Grexit; China worries; Brazil and Russia in recession; manufacturing slump globally; Fed rate hikes; Brexit; South China Sea tensions; Trump; Eurozone elections; North Korea; Germany; Catalonia; Italy; US inflation and rates; Trade war; China slowdown; Aust Royal Commission; Aust housing downturn; US government shutdown; inverted yield curves; impeachment; Aust recession fears; and Iran tensions.
Yet despite this extensive worry list investment returns have actually been okay with average balanced growth super funds returning 7.3% pa over the last five years after taxes and fees. In fact, the global economy has had plenty of worries over the last century, but it got over them with Australian shares returning 11.8% pa since 1900 and US shares 9.9%pa.
And while history doesn’t repeat it does rhyme and it’s often useful to look back at previous similar events to the latest worry to see how they panned out. This is where the experience around SARS is useful in relation to the latest coronavirus outbreak. Secondly, recognise how markets work.
A diverse portfolio of shares returns more than bonds and cash over the long-term because it can lose money in the short-term. While the share market is highly volatile in the short-term it has seen strong returns over rolling 20-year periods. So, volatility driven by worries and bad news is normal. It’s the price investors pay for higher long-term returns.
Thirdly, find a way to filter news so that it doesn't distort your investment decisions. For example, this could involve building your own investment process or choosing 1-3 good investment subscription services and relying on them. Or simpler still, agreeing to a long-term strategy with a financial planner and sticking to it.
Ultimately it all depends on how much you want to be involved in managing your investments. Fourthly, don’t check your investments so much. If you track the daily movements in the Australian All Ords price index or the US S&amp;P 500, it has been down almost as much as it has been up.
So, day to day it’s pretty much a coin toss as to whether you will get good news or bad. By contrast if you only look at how the share market has gone each month and allow for dividends the historical experience tells us you will only get bad news 35% of the time.
Looking only on a calendar year basis, data back to 1900 indicates that the probability of bad news in the form of a loss slides further to 20% for Australian shares and 27% for US shares. And if you can stretch it out to once a decade positive returns have been seen 100% of the time for Australian shares and 82% of the time for US shares
The less frequently you look the less you will be disappointed and so the lower the chance that a bout of "loss aversion" triggered by a bad news event will lead you to sell at the wrong time. So, try to avoid looking at market updates so regularly. Finally, look for opportunities that bad news throws up.
Periods of share market turbulence after bad news throw up opportunities as such periods push shares into cheap territory. Concluding comment My long-term experience around investing tells me that it’s far more productive to lean into prognostications of financial gloom because most of the time they are wrong and end up just distracting investors from their goals.
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Bushfires to coronavirus, how to turn down the noise around investing: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The last few weeks have seen escalating concern that a new coronavirus (called 2019 novel coronavirus or nCoV) originating in the Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei province will become a global pandemic.
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Concern has been heightened after the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the outbreak an “international public health emergency” on 30 January and the number of cases has continued to escalate.
While this is first and foremost a human crisis, there has been increasing concern that the associated disruption to economic activity will trigger a global economic slump. 
Consequently, share markets have seen falls (ranging from three per cent for global and Australian shares to around seven per cent for Asian shares and 12 per cent for Chinese shares), commodity prices have fallen, and bond yields have collapsed again. 
While the current situation is highly uncertain, the experience with SARS, bird flu, swine flu &amp; Ebola highlight worst-case pandemic fears don’t usually eventuate.
What do we know about this Coronavirus
Here is a summary of information regarding nCoV:
Coronaviruses circulate in animals but can be transmitted to humans and affect the respiratory system. SARS in 2003 &amp; MERS in 2012 were examples. Symptoms can be treated but there are no vaccines or antiviral drugs for them (at present). Like SARS, nCoV looks to have originated in wildlife markets in China.
So far there are over 24,500 confirmed cases worldwide, with 99 per cent of cases in China. But the number of cases is still rising rapidly and more/faster testing could mean many more with spikes in the number of new daily cases.
So far the mortality rate is running at two per cent which puts it above swine flu but well below SARS (which settled around nine per cent). And of those dying, its mainly been older people or those with pre-existing conditions (as with common flu).
Against this, nCoV has been more contagious with total cases well above those for SARS (8000) and patients can be contagious but without symptoms for one to two weeks.
Containment measures – notably in China – have been more aggressive and started earlier than in the case of SARS. These include restricting travel into and out of Hubei province and various countries have restricted (and in some cases banned) foreign travellers entering from China.
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Past experiences
To provide some context it is worth reviewing past pandemics – both real and feared.
There were three influenza pandemics in the last century: 1918-19, 1957 and 1968. The 1957 and 1968 pandemics are estimated to have killed up to 4 million people. However, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was the most severe.
While the mortality rate was low, up to 50 million people died worldwide. With a big proportion of the population staying at home, economic activity was severely disrupted, although this was compounded by the ending of World War I.
US industrial production slumped 18 per cent between March 1918 and March 1919. Australian real GDP slumped 5.5 per cent in 1919-20 (but then rebounded 13.6 per cent in 1920-21). The share market impact is hard to discern given the ending of WWI, however US and Australian share markets rose through much of the pandemic period.
The SARS outbreak of 2003 is a more useful guide.
After emerging in China around February 2003, SARS infected about 8000 people (mostly in Asia) in 30 countries over a five-month period and had a mortality rate of about nine per cent. SARS had a big negative impact on the countries most affected as people stayed home for fear of catching it.
GDP in China, Hong Kong and Singapore slumped by over two per cent in the June quarter of 2003. Growth then subsequently rebounded.
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Reflecting SARS, Asian shares fell in April 2003, even though global shares started to move out of a three year bear market from March. The April 2003 low in Asian shares coincided with a peaking in the number of new cases.
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Most pandemics have taken 6 to 18 months to run their course and peter out as measures are taken to slow their spread (eg. hygiene, quarantining, banning gatherings, preventing travel). SARS ended quicker due to the nature of the virus and rapid action by authorities.
In 2005/2006, there was significant concern that a severe strain of bird flu (called H5N1), which was resulting in human casualties, mainly in parts of Asia where people had contact with chickens, would mutate into a form that was readily transmissible between humans.
However, this didn’t really eventuate and as such the economic impact was modest although it did cause bouts of volatility in share markets. Similarly, concern that the spread of swine flu would become a global pandemic rattled share markets for a while around April 2009, and Ebola did the same in 2014, but both quickly faded.
The economic and financial impact of nCoV
After strong double-digit gains over the last year and with investor sentiment pushing up to high levels indicating a degree of complacency, share markets were at high risk of a correction in mid Jan and the fears around coronavirus have provided the trigger.
Given their greater sensitivity to Chinese growth, commodity prices like Chinese shares are down by more and the Australian dollar has fallen to October lows below $US0.67. What happens from here depends on how long it takes for the outbreak to be contained. The higher number of cases than with SARS or swine flu suggests a greater economic impact.
But given the range of possibilities, the best way to get a handle on the economic and investment market impact is to consider several scenarios. Here we consider two.
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1. Containment within the next month or two – the number of cases continues to rise but it remains mainly contained to China (and Hubei) and the number of new cases starts to peak in the next month or so. This would allow travel restrictions to be removed by the June quarter. Under this scenario:
GDP in China and parts of Asia would likely take a two to three per cent hit (taking Chinese GDP growth from six per cent year on year in the December quarter to three to four per cent yoy in the current quarter) as workers stay home and travel dries up. With the Chinese economy now being four times the share of global GDP it was at the time of SARS, this along with some drag on growth in developed countries would knock world growth to around 2.5 per cent year on year (from around three per cent). However, growth would rebound in the June quarter as travel restrictions are removed and things return to normal.
Australian growth could see a 0.2 per cent hit in the current quarter mainly due to the loss of Chinese tourists (which account for 20 per cent of tourism earnings and 0.2 per cent of GDP) but also lower raw material demand and an impact on confidence. With the bushfire impact this could see GDP contract, but growth would rebound in the June quarter.
Against this background share markets, commodity prices and the $A could still fall a bit further in the near term but would quickly rebound by the June quarter. Easier than otherwise monetary and fiscal policies - with more stimulus measures already announced in China - would aid this.
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2. Global pandemic – the number of cases continues to escalate beyond China and aren’t contained until say mid-year.
This scenario would see a bigger and longer negativeimpact on economic activity. Global travel would collapse. Many would simply not come into work – a reasonable estimate is around 20 per cent of workers, although this might be spread over time.
This would see a sharp slump in global GDP and the risk of global recession. Australia would not be immune and would likely see two negative quarters of growth with flow on to education exports to China (which accounts for another 0.6 per cent of Australian GDP).
Share markets would likely fall sharply – maybe by 20 per cent or so - reflecting the huge economic uncertainty. Cash would be the place to be. The $A could fall to around $US0.60.However, economic activity would rebound quickly once it’s clear the pandemic is under control. Share markets are likely to anticipate this. But this wouldn’t occur till the second half of the year.
Concluding comment and what to watch
While there is reason for concern and it is easy to dream up nightmare scenarios, the experience with SARS, bird flu (with “predictions” it could kill as many as 150 million people) and the mini panic regarding swine flu and Ebola tell us that the worst case fears of pandemics usually don’t come to pass. Rapid containment measures provide some confidence this will be the case. As such, our base case scenario (with 75 per cent probability) is one of containment over the next month or two. This could still see more downside in share markets and bond yields in the near term, but they are likely to rebound by the June quarter as economic growth rebounds. The key things to watch are:The daily number of new cases – the SARS experience saw markets rebound once this showed signs of peaking.
The spread of new cases and deaths in developed countries – if this remains limited then markets will also get more confident that the economic fallout will be short lived.
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.
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