Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

Coronavirus

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The dramatic recent shifts in the use of public space have led some to claim the coronavirus pandemic will permanently change cities. Among its many other impacts, COVID-19 has upturned established patterns of ordering city space.
Personally, the vibrancy of my local park has delighted me. It seems to be filled at almost any time of day by a wide variety of activities. I’m encouraged by the proliferation of new <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-30/coronavirus-queensland-neighbourhood-street-stalls-popular/12189132" target="_blank">street stalls</a>and entertained by the creativity of my neighbours’ efforts to maintain their gym routines: elastic bands attached to light posts, free weights carted to the park in shopping trolleys, a cross-trainer in the front yard.
I have been frustrated but also heartened by the six-week wait to get my daughter’s bike serviced. And I’m thrilled by the elevation of pedestrians and cyclists. Streets have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/world-cities-turn-their-streets-over-to-walkers-and-cyclists" target="_blank">closed to cars</a>, and time has been automatically allocated for pedestrians in the traffic-light cycle – no need for “<a href="https://www.governmentnews.com.au/sydney-traffic-lights-automated-to-combat-covid-19/" target="_blank">beg buttons</a>”!
Since at least the 1970s oil crisis, and especially since the more recent recognition of the global climate crisis, there have been calls to rethink the allocation of public space, and streets in particular, to produce more inclusive, resilient and <a href="https://www.c40.org/ending-climate-change-begins-in-the-city" target="_blank">sustainable forms of development</a>. Compact city policies have been adopted (albeit unevenly) across Australia, yet implementation <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2017.1319869" target="_blank">has been slow</a>.
Might COVID-19 provide the impetus for more rapid change? Whether lasting changes do indeed eventuate will depend in large part on whether the pandemic has shifted popular expectations.
<h2>Public space is political</h2>
Public space is the quintessential site of politics. And it’s not just as a site for marches and assemblies where rights are demanded and disrupted. It’s also the everyday expression of collective decisions about how we live together, about who gets access to which space, and for what purposes, about the role of the state and the rights and responsibilities of citizens.
Those collective decisions are often highly contested, so the relative rights and responsibilities of citizens and their cities are subject to ongoing negotiation. The pandemic restrictions have brought issues like these to the fore. The rapid enactment of regulations to support social distancing has <a href="https://theconversation.com/pandemic-policing-needs-to-be-done-with-the-publics-trust-not-confusion-135716" target="_blank">generated concerns</a> about wide <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/covid-19-lockdown-fines-eroding-public-confidence-top-cop-warns-20200413-p54jfk" target="_blank">official discretion</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-dont-know-what-weve-got-till-its-gone-we-must-reclaim-public-space-lost-to-the-coronavirus-crisis-135817" target="_blank">compounding inequality</a>.
Yet the rules that regulate streets, parks and other public and semi-public spaces are always uneven. Popular understandings about the kinds of use (and users) that are and are not legitimate in public space significantly influence the ways those <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/lasr.12347" target="_blank">rules are interpreted</a> – and sometimes amended.
Understandings can shift. In the mid-20th century, for example, streets changed rapidly and radically: from shared spaces (for travel by pedestrians, streetcars, horses and carriages, but also for commerce, play and other forms of social exchange) to spaces reshaped around the needs of the car.
The rights and responsibilities of citizens and the state shifted too. Expectations about engineering for automobility overshadowed expectations of things like safe spaces to walk, cycle and gather, or comprehensive public transport systems
<h2>Who owns the city?</h2>
An important determinant of expectations about public space are understandings about ownership. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0964663917701304" target="_blank">Ownership</a> encompasses not only the formal property rights that councils and other landowners use to control public space, but also the informal sense of ownership or belonging that enables certain users to control (or influence the control of) public space.
Ownership is closely connected to understandings about rights in public space, as well as agency and political voice in other settings. Some of the strongest <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/this-is-my-beach-fence-doesn-t-deter-sydney-swimmers-20200325-p54dul" target="_blank">resistance to COVID-19 restrictions</a> has been from people claiming the public space in question is “theirs”.
While ownership shapes activities in public space, those activities can also play a role in reshaping ownership. Even <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jols.12081" target="_blank">small-scale interventions by citizens</a> and community groups can lead to significant shifts in understandings of ownership and legality. This in turn leads to changes in the regulation of urban space by planners, policymakers, police and other officials.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332188/original/file-20200504-42935-m1o9wy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332188/original/file-20200504-42935-m1o9wy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Exercising in Moore Park, Sydney, under coronavirus restrictions. What people choose to do in public spaces can influence understandings of what these spaces are for and how they are regulated. Amelia Thorpe, Author provided
Our cities won’t be the same again, but the shape of the “new normal” remains unclear. Whether COVID-19 will lead to more inclusive or sustainable cities will depend on how its disruptions are experienced.
Will shifts in the allocation and regulation of public space be understood as temporary inconveniences, or will they prompt a more fundamental re-evaluation of who “owns” the city? Might people take back the streets?<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137703/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amelia-thorpe-15408" target="_blank">Amelia Thorpe</a>, Associate Professor in Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/reclaiming-the-streets-we-all-can-have-a-say-in-the-new-normal-after-coronavirus-137703" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Reclaiming the streets? We all can have a say in the 'new normal' after coronavirus

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The COVID-19 pandemic restrictions have reminded us of the vital role public space plays in supporting our physical and mental well-being. We need to move, to feel sunlight and fresh air, and to see, talk and even sing to other people.
Lockdowns and “social distancing” have limited our participation in public life and public space. As a result, cities around the world are reporting declines in health and well-being. We are seeing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicegwalton/2020/04/08/coronavirus-lockdown-is-taking-a-toll-on-mental-health-especially-womens-study-finds/#6b181ee02d1f" target="_blank">increases in depression, domestic violence, relationship breakdowns and divorces</a>.
What about the well-being of our cities? Avoiding walking and public transport in favour of cars <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/what-do-we-want-life-in-melbourne-to-look-like-on-the-other-side-20200424-p54mvw" target="_blank">could kill cities</a>.
The trajectory of the pandemic suggests physical distancing could remain in place for some time. The subtle “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Relations-Public-Microstudies-Order/dp/141281006X" target="_blank">step and slide</a>” that people ordinarily use to negotiate their way through crowded urban spaces has given way to the very blunt act of “stop and cross”, as people try to avoid one another on <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/too-close-for-comfort-when-a-walk-in-the-park-is-no-walk-in-the-park-20200415-p54k46" target="_blank">footpaths that are too narrow</a>.
We need to act swiftly to retrofit our public spaces so they are both safe and support social activity. Our goal must be to avoid a long-term legacy where people fear cities and other people. This is where approaches known as <a href="https://msd.unimelb.edu.au/informal-urbanism/projects/temporary-and-tactical-urbanism" target="_blank">temporary and tactical urbanism</a> come in as a way to quickly reconfigure public spaces to create places that are both safe and social.
As COVID-19’s impacts on public life become more evident, so has the abundance of street space left vacant by the substantial drop in vehicle traffic. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-tips-new-york-san-francisco" target="_blank">Recognising this opportunity</a>, cities around the world have begun repurposing street spaces for people.
<h2>A global public space revolution?</h2>
Leading urban theorists, such as <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Death-Life-Great-American-Cities/dp/067974195X" target="_blank">Jane Jacobs</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/apr/07/together-richard-sennett-review" target="_blank">Richard Sennett</a>, have long argued that social interaction is the lifeblood of cities. The COVID-19 pandemic can be seen as an attack on urbanity itself.
But <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/social-distancing-coronavirus-physical-distancing/2020/03/25/a4d4b8bc-6ecf-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story" target="_blank">social/physical distancing</a> should not preclude social interaction. Major cities around the world are responding by reclaiming street spaces for people to safely walk and cycle. They are acting quickly, because the need to increase public space for people is more urgent than ever.
How can this be done? After all, urban design proposals usually take months or years to realise. Tactical urbanism approaches overcome this by drawing on a palette of low-cost, widely available and flexible materials, objects and structures to quickly create new forms of public space.
In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/14/london-pedestrians-and-cyclist-may-get-more-space-on-roads-during-coronavirus-lockdown" target="_blank">London</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/world-cities-turn-their-streets-over-to-walkers-and-cyclists#maincontent" target="_blank">Berlin, Bogota, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Vancouver, Mexico City</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/milan-seeks-to-prevent-post-crisis-return-of-traffic-pollution" target="_blank">Milan</a>, paint and traffic cones are being used to <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/9f47ef654c7841e1a8d35034088d75b7" target="_blank">create bike lanes</a>. In <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-dublin-city-council-to-implement-emergency-social-distancing-measures-1.4231576" target="_blank">Dublin</a>, parking spaces and loading bays are being reclaimed in the city centre to provide more space for pedestrians. At a national level, New Zealand has created a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/13/new-zealand-first-country-to-fund-pop-up-bike-lanes-widened-sidewalks-during-lockdown/#69c8e43a546e" target="_blank">tactical urbanism fund</a> for emergency bike lanes and footpath widening.
So what’s happening in Australia? Not much at present. Yet we <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/too-close-for-comfort-when-a-walk-in-the-park-is-no-walk-in-the-park-20200415-p54k46" target="_blank">face the same problems</a>, prompting <a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374" target="_blank">calls for urgent action</a> to reclaim public space for walking and <a href="http://www.weride.org.au/announcement/australian-health-and-transport-experts-call-for-space-for-safer-walking-and-cycling/" target="_blank">cycling</a>.
Despite this, there has been little examination of locally specific design and implementation approaches that can rapidly deliver the urban spaces people need right now.
<h2>Making it happen</h2>
Temporary and tactical urbanism isn’t new to Australia. We’ve been doing it since the 1980s when <a href="https://www.killyourdarlings.com.au/2016/09/imagine-a-city-swanston-st-party/" target="_blank">Melbourne’s Swanston Street was transformed into a green oasis</a> overnight. This helped to reimagine the city centre as a place designed for people, which shaped <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-three-decade-remaking-of-the-city-revived-the-buzz-of-marvellous-melbourne-91481" target="_blank">its long-term social and economic regeneration</a>.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207418/original/file-20180222-132674-1247hnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207418/original/file-20180222-132674-1247hnf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The Greening of Swanston Street in 1985. Victorian Ministry of Planning
This, and other <a href="http://tacticalurbanismguide.com/guides/tactical-urbanism-volume-4/" target="_blank">more recent projects</a>, have proven temporary and tactical urbanism adds value beyond physical activity and social interaction. Successful schemes can increase the vitality of streets and neighbourhoods, engage local communities and enhance a local sense of place.
<a href="https://www.townteams.com.au/" target="_blank">Social enterprises</a> and community groups are well placed to deliver such projects, because of their enthusiasm, agility and local networks. Governments also have a crucial role in enabling other actors and maximising public benefits. Every weekday between midday and 2pm, the City of Melbourne temporarily closes Little Collins Street between Swanston and Elizabeth streets with a removable bollard, giving over the street to pedestrians – it’s that easy!
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331887/original/file-20200501-42962-11lwnih.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331887/original/file-20200501-42962-11lwnih.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Little Collins Street already becomes a place for pedestrians at lunchtime. City of Melbourne. Author provided., Author provided
Our cities’ urban spaces are full of such potential for greater flexibility, experimentation and innovation. For example, <a href="https://www.cityofadelaide.com.au/business/permits-licences/parklets/" target="_blank">on-street parking can easily be converted</a> into spaces for socialising and outdoor dining. A vacant space can become an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2011/sep/01/pedal-power-open-air-cycle-cinema" target="_blank">outdoor cinema</a>.
<h2>Temporary or permanent?</h2>
The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions have created an epic social experiment on a global scale. We argue that urbanity itself is at stake. What will cities be without the social interactions that enable us to exchange ideas, opinions, values and knowledge?
Can we afford to go back to the cities designed for cars that we have spent decades reshaping for people? If we don’t act now, the social life of cities that sustains our economy, creativity and culture is at risk.
We need to counter the social impacts of COVID-19 by experimenting at the micro scale of public space. Temporary and tactical urbanism offers simple, low-cost and agile solutions. We should act quickly to make streets safe and sociable during this crisis. The long-term health of people and cities depends on it.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137063/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-daly-446774" target="_blank">Jonathan Daly</a>, Researcher, School of Architecture and Urban Design, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063" target="_blank">RMIT University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kim-dovey-107660" target="_blank">Kim Dovey</a>, Professor of Architecture and Urban Design, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/quentin-stevens-1044644" target="_blank">Quentin Stevens</a>, Associate Professor, School of Architecture and Urban Design, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063" target="_blank">RMIT University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-let-coronavirus-kill-our-cities-heres-how-we-can-save-urban-life-137063" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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We can't let coronavirus kill our cities. Here's how we can save urban life

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Redundancies are attractive to organisations in crisis. Although the payouts cost money upfront, they can reshape the remaining workforce to make it leaner and more fit for purpose.
On the other hand they can demoralise that workforce, and they are far from good for the rest of the economy.
One alternative, available to the employers of as many as 6.6 million Australians for the next six months, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/that-estimate-of-6-6-million-australians-on-jobkeeper-it-tells-us-how-it-can-be-improved-137237" target="_blank">JobKeeper</a>.
Another is being tried with apparent success by <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/group/" target="_blank">Domain Group</a>, the real estate listings and journalism firm majority owned by Nine Entertainment Holdings, which also owns newspapers including The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.
Domain, and the real estate industry in general, has been hard hit by plummeting listings and plateauing home prices.
Project Zipline
Because it is part owned by the public and listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, it has had to explain its approach to shareholders.
Its <a href="https://shareholders.domain.com.au/DownloadFile.axd?file=/Report/ComNews/20200427/02228319.pdf" target="_blank">April 26</a> announcement notes that about 45% of its cost base relates to staff and employee-related expenses.
“We had the option of taking the standard path of reducing hours, stand downs and redundancies, chief executive Jason Pellegrino explained on the <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/group/zipline/" target="_blank">Domain</a> website.
He chose another option: <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/group/zipline/" target="_blank">Project Zipline</a>
employees were offered the opportunity to participate in a share rights program whereby they could receive a percentage of their salary package over the next six months in share rights, or alternatively elect to reduce working hours
The target is a 20% reduction in staff costs, while retaining employee talent and "momentum for the long term”.
It’ll also help align the employees and the organisational interests.
Domain’s group director for employee experience, Rosalind Tregurtha says there has been a 90% take up of the options offered.
Sacrifices at the top
The executive leadership and board are <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/how-to-beat-the-transformation-odds" target="_blank">role modelling</a> by taking greater proportions of their own remuneration in share rights: 30% and 50%.
It has had to work quickly so the savings can start from May.
The work has included preparing information packs for managers and employees, briefing managers, asking employees to chose options, working with <a href="https://www.linkmarketservices.com.au/corporate/home" target="_blank">Link Market Services</a> to get offers out and processing the changes for the more than 600 employees on the payroll.
Zipline is a case study of an organisation working quickly with its workers to find a solution that works.
It mightn’t work elsewhere. Other options for businesses include
<ul>
<li>
offering greater work flexibility including shortened weeks and job sharing
</li>
<li>
freezing or limiting recruitment
</li>
<li>
restricting or banning overtime
</li>
<li>
increasing the scope of jobs
</li>
<li>
allowing employees to take accrued leave
</li>
<li>
directing employees to take unpaid leave under the government’s <a href="https://www.fwc.gov.au/industrial-action-benchbook/payments-relating-industrial-action/standing-down-employees" target="_blank">stand down</a> provisions
</li>
<li>
seeking voluntary redundancies
</li>
</ul>
It is important to consider, as Domain did, that while demand for their services might have slowed for a time, there is every likelihood that in the not too distant future things will pick up.
The firms that have done all they can to retain their industry knowledge and company experience will be the best placed for revival.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137704/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robyn-johns-159436" target="_blank">Robyn Johns</a>, Senior Lecturer in Human Resource Management and Industrial Relations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank">University of Technology Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-redundancies-are-understandable-but-there-are-alternatives-137704" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Coronavirus redundancies are understandable, but there are alternatives

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Last night would have been Budget night and the Australian Treasurer would have been announcing budget surpluses. Of course, coronavirus intervened, and the surpluses rightly had to be sacrificed to support Australian households, businesses and jobs. And it makes no sense to provide detailed budget forecasts given the extreme uncertainty about the impact on the economy and hence the budget for the coronavirus shutdown. So, the Treasurer has provided a statement to Parliament on the economic impact of the crisis, updated budget numbers will be provided in June and the Budget itself has been delayed to October.
As the economic impact of the crisis is well known I won’t go through that again here except to note two things from the Treasurer’s statement. First, more than 5.5 million Australian workers are now covered by the JobKeeper wage subsidy program which is coming close to the Government’s initial estimate that it would cover 6 million. Second, the Treasurer reiterated that the best way to pay back debt is through productivity enhancing reforms focussed on workforce training and education, infrastructure, cutting red tape, taxation and industrial relations reform. So, reform to help the economy recover post coronavirus will likely be the key focus in the October Budget.
This note looks at our own projections for the budget deficit, the impact on Australia’s net public debt and whether it’s affordable.
Budget deficit projections
The next table shows our rough budget deficit projections, taking the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook projections from last December as the starting point.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/1.png" alt="">
Under “policy changes” we have allowed for the three policy support packages announced through March, the health package announced in March, various industry support packages including that for childcare and bushfire spending. These are dominated by the $130bn JobKeeper program and are concentrated in this financial year and next, particularly for the period out to September. While the reopening of the economy may be coming a bit earlier than the Government had allowed for, we assume that the Government redirects some of the JobKeeper program from those who may no longer need it, to those who do, such that the full $130bn is still spent. In total and allowing for state fiscal stimulus this is resulting in a 10.6% of GDP fiscal stimulus for this calendar year, which swamps the stimulus seen in the GFC (and rightly so because the GFC posed a much smaller threat to the economy).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/2.png" alt="">
The hit to the economy will mean a hit to government revenue and increased spending demands under some existing spending programs and this is shown in the line called “parameter changes.” This is a guesstimate at present, because we are yet to get a firm handle on the size of the hit to the economy and how quickly it might recover. But the negative impact on the budget is likely to be bigger next financial year than this financial year because unemployment will average far more next financial year (around 8.5%) than this financial year (around 6.3%) and that provides a guide to lost Federal revenue and increased expenses.
Put simply, the Government’s necessary fiscal support response and the hit to the budget flowing from the hit to the economy will see the budget deficit blow out to around $130bn this year and $200bn next financial year, before falling sharply from 2021-22, as support programs end and the economy recovers.
This would see the budget deficit as a share of GDP peak at around 10% of GDP in 2020-21, which would be its highest since World War 2.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/3.png" alt="">
Spread over several years, this will add nearly 20% of GDP to Australia’s public debt.
But can we afford the surge in the deficit and debt?
It’s not ideal, but it is affordable. First, it needs to be stressed that the stimulus is absolutely necessary. If the Government hadn’t imposed the lockdown the healthcare system could have been overwhelmed resulting in many more deaths than the 97 recorded so far. Australia has seen 4 deaths per million people, but the UK and Italy have seen around 500 deaths per million and if that had occurred in Australia it would mean the deaths of around 12,500 people. And if the Government along with the RBA and state governments had not moved to protect jobs, businesses and incomes, the prospective hit to the economy from the lockdown would be far greater, with a much slower recovery in prospect (and probably an even bigger blow out in the budget and public debt). Looked at another way the 10% or so hit to the economy this half year required a similarly sized stimulus program to offset it.
Second, it makes sense for the public sector to borrow from households and businesses at a time when they are stuck at home and can’t spend due to the shutdown or won’t spend due to uncertainty, and for the Government to give the borrowed funds to help those businesses and individuals that are directly impacted. Using the funds to subsidise wages was a very smart move as it keeps people employed, keeps them linked to their employer and helps minimize confidence zapping unemployment headlines.
Third, the support programs have been designed to support the economy when they are most likely needed – in the June and September quarters – and to phase down thereafter as is apparent in the table above showing policy stimulus falling sharply from 2021-22. So, under current law we have not seen a permanent step jump higher in government spending. This contrasts with what seemed to happen post the GFC
Fourth, Australia’s net public debt is relatively low at 23% of GDP in comparison with the US at 84%, the Eurozone at 69% and Japan at 154%. See the next chart. And even with the projected budget deficit adding 17% of GDP to public debt by 2021, according to IMF projections Australia’s net public debt will remain relatively small at around 40% of GDP in two years’ time. So, Australia has far greater scope to do fiscal stimulus than other comparable countries.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/5/14/4.png" alt="">
Fifth, the cost of borrowing for the Federal Government is very low at just 0.25% for three years and 0.95% for ten years. Of course, this is partly being facilitated by the RBA buying bonds in the secondary market, although even if it weren’t bond yields would be low anyway reflecting the massive hit to the economy from the shutdown.
And the odd thing about the RBA holding more Government bonds is that much of the interest paid on the bonds by the Government to the RBA will flow back to the Government as a dividend.
Finally, the Australian Government is borrowing to finance the deterioration in the budget deficit in Australian dollars and given the turnaround in Australia’s balance of payments from a large current account deficit to a surplus or around balance in recent years, it’s not as if we are dependent on foreign creditors risking some sort of foreign currency crisis.
The blow out in the Australian Government’s budget deficit and public debt is not great. But it’s a necessary price Australia has to pay to minimise the loss of life from the virus and at the same time minimise the hit to people’s livelihoods from the shutdown. In terms of getting the debt back down, a temporary deficit levy would be preferable to tax hikes or the cancelation of tax cuts. But I agree with the Treasurer that the best approach to getting debt back down is to grow the economy aided by a reinvigorated economic reform agenda.
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

The incoming budget deficit and public debt: Shane Oliver

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Up to 45 per cent of household incomes have already been, or soon will be, reduced as a result of Government-mandated restrictions, according to the latest research from comparethemarket.com.au.
Furthermore, the study found that four in five impacted households are freeing up cash by deferring loan or credit card repayments, or accessing cash by withdrawing from their super, term deposits or life savings.
The financial comparison service commissioned an independent, nationally representative survey of 1002 Australian mortgagors.
Respondents were asked if they were losing income due to social restrictions, and what changes they will make to their finances as a result, including their mortgage repayments.
The survey found that 11 per cent of respondents or their partners had lost their jobs, while a further 5 per cent think they are yet to lose their jobs.
In addition, 18 per cent of respondents or their partners had received a pay cut, while a further 11 per cent believe a pay cut is coming. 
Comparethemarket.com.au also asked respondents if they were concerned about meeting mortgage repayments as a result of their reduced income.
Among households who have, or will have, their incomes cut, 71 per cent said they are worried about repayments for the remainder of 2020.
Many lenders are allowing customers to defer mortgage repayments for up to six months in the current climate; however, payments on interest are not exempt.
The survey also asked if respondents have, or will be, freeing up or accessing cash by deferring mortgage or personal loan repayments, withdrawing from their superannuation, breaking a term deposit, drawing on their savings or using a credit card less.
Among the 45 per cent of respondents whose incomes are being impacted, more than four in five (85 per cent) said they have, or would, take at least one of these actions.
Just one in four (25 per cent) said they have or will defer their repayments, despite lacking confidence about meeting their repayments.
The Australian Banking Association has confirmed that deferrals on mortgages and other credit products won’t affect credit scores, so long as individuals were on top of their repayments before the pandemic.
Mortgagors could also consider refinancing their home loan at this time to save money and take advantage of interest rates being so low.
Many lenders are competing for new customers, so consumers could get a much more competitive rate, in addition to potentially accessing greater flexibility and benefits from a different lender.
Among respondents whose household incomes have been reduced, 64 per cent have, or will be, ceasing or reducing their credit card usage, while 77 per cent would also draw on their savings.
Among the other ways Aussies will be freeing up cash, 10 per cent said they have accessed, or will access, their superannuation.
The Government announced a new measure to allow for early access to superannuation to help individuals affected by COVID-19.
Eligible recipients – those who are unemployed, receiving Government benefits, were made redundant or have had their hours reduced by 20 per cent or more – can apply to withdraw up to $10,000 this financial year and a further $10,000 in FY20-21.
 “Hundreds of thousands of people are experiencing financial hardship at this time, with around six million workers expected to receive JobKeeper payments, while many others are uncertain about their financial security. The Government and financial institutions have introduced a range of relief measures to help Aussies under financial pressure, stay afloat during these difficult times,” said Comparethemarket.com.au spokesperson Abigail Koch.
“At comparethemarket.com.au, we have created an informative COVID-19 FAQ Hub to help people better understand how the pandemic could affect their home loans, credit cards, insurances and a range of other household costs.”
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Up to 45 per cent of household incomes to be reduced by pandemic: Comparethemarket.com.au

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There’s a startling inconsistency in Australian news media when it comes to the treatment of real estate prices.
When actual data is published, showing what actually happened with house prices, media will savage the figures (if they are positive, as they were in March and April) and dismiss them as irrelevant or misleading. That’s journalism, right? Journalists are supposed to challenge things.
But if someone makes a forecast about prices which is negative, news media will accept that without question. And, worse, media will turn this speculation into a fact. It’s not a case of “prices are forecast to fall”; it’s presented as “prices will fall”.
This inconsistency in the approach of media speaks volumes about the mentality of journalists –
- If it’s a positive, attack it;
- If it’s a negative, make love to it.
Data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research showed prices resisted the impacts of virus shutdown in both March and April, with prices rising to some degree in most markets around the nation. We’re three months into the covid-19 schemozzle and there’s still no evidence of the price collapse predicted by the usual suspects.
But this was broadly challenged by news media as being misleading and untenable. Most headlines early in May, reporting the April figures, were extremely negative. One media outlet managed to turn all that solid price data into this headline: “Real Estate Markets Collapse.
It’s essentially about click-bait and the truth is optional – but, in other walks of life, if someone uses that level of deception and dishonesty to try to make money, they end up being charged with serious offences and in some cases go to jail.
Contrast all that with the treatment in the past week of forecasts for house prices by some of the big banks. These have been quite negative and news media has had a field day with those reports: no one has questioned or challenged them at all.
And they should be challenged, because the track records of bank economists in forecasting anything, but in particular real estate prices, are notoriously bad.
(As an aside, observe the record of Bill Evans, chief economist for Westpac, in predicting interest rates – he will make a forecast about likely movements in the next 12 months, with lots of publicity, but in perhaps two months’ time will issue a new, different, forecast. This begs the question: what was the value of your forecast two months ago, which you are now suggesting is wrong?)
If ever something deserved to be attacked by journalists, it’s the forecasts of bank economists about the housing market. Collectively, they have a very low level of credibility.
Let’s take National Australia Bank as a case study. The bank publishes regular forecasts about residential property prices, including the quarterly NAB Residential Property Survey reports. I’ve been reading NAB’s forecasts for many years and here’s what I know to be true – the forecasts are never correct. And I do mean never.
They always err on the side of pessimistic and invariably they are wrong.
Here’s a recent example. NAB published one of its reports in January 2019, containing forecasts for house prices for capital cities for the coming year.
Here what they predicted: capital cities on average would record a 3.8% fall in house prices in 2019. Sydney would drop 5.6%, Melbourne would decline 7.0%, Brisbane would deliver zero growth and other state capitals would deliver minimal growth.
News media, of course, gave this considerable fanfare and treated the forecasts as facts – i.e. Melbourne prices will fall 7% by the end of the year.
Here’s what actually happened, according to three major research entities which publish price statistics – and also according to NAB itself.
According to the latest NAB report, the capital city average for houses in 2019 was actually a rise of 2.9%, not a fall of 3.8%. The capital average for apartments was a rise of 3.4%, not the 4.3% decline that the NAB report forecast a year earlier.
The Melbourne result was a rise of 4.6% for houses and a rise of 6.5% for apartments, not the big declines that NAB had forecast. And in Sydney, there was a rise of 6.1% for houses and a rise of 3.4% for apartments, in contrast to the declines of 5.6% and 5.5% that the NAB report of January 2019 had forecast.
It’s quite a dismal failing, isn’t it, when you predict something will decline 5.6%, but it actually rises 6.1%.
NAB chief economist Alan Oster did not mention any of that in his recent media soundbites on his latest report. Here’s your credulity rating with me, Alan: 0
But the contrasts between the NAB forecasts and the eventual reality are even more stark when you look at the figures from more credible sources.
According to the figure from three major sources, the capital city average result for house prices in 2019 was a rise 5.5% (Domain), 2.1% (CoreLogic) and 2.9% (SQM Research).
The result for Sydney houses was a rise of 6.8% (Domain), 6.1% (CoreLogic) and 4.8% (SQM). Remember, NAB forecast a 5.6% decline for Sydney house prices.
The result for Melbourne houses was a rise of 8.7% (Domain), 4.6% (CoreLogic) and 5.7% (SQM) – not the 7.0% decline NAB had forecast.
There are similar contrasts with the other cities. Hobart, for example, rose 15.6% (Domain) and 11.7% (SQM), whereas the NAB report had forecast a 2019 rise of just 1.8%.
Without boring you with any more statistical detail, I can tell you that the NAB reports have been similarly, and consistently, wrong with their price forecasts year after year. They always lean towards negativity and real estate keeps on proving them wrong.
Yet, this nation’s gaggle of non-journalists has accepted their latest pessimistic outpouring without a single challenge. Its new forecasts, which are quite negative, have been celebrated in media across the country.
Shame on all of you for being so willing to heap further misery on Australian households without any credible justification.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

House price forecasts are usually wrong: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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Total Real Estate Training, the organisers of The Australasian Real Estate Conference (AREC) have teamed up with highly respected real estate coach Tom Panos to provide sales agents with a series of free webinars to continue their online learning and education during the Coronavirus pandemic.
AREC and Tom Panos’ Real Estate Gym will run four free weekly live online webinars during May and featuring the most successful and dynamic residential agents, often lauded as the legends in real estate, to share their insights and strategies in these uncertain times.
John McGrath, Founder of AREC explained, “We’re learning so much in this new environment and one of the key lessons for us all is around collaboration and partnerships. So Tom and the AREC team were keen to partner on this unique digital event where we can bring the best real estate talent in the country into the lounge rooms and home offices for free.”
Mr McGrath added, “The real estate world is changing so rapidly, real time information and advice delivered in this digital format is critical. As agents and educators, we’ve had to pivot and adapt quickly. And just as we saw many high profile successful people come together during disasters we’ve had to face in recent times, the elite of the real estate industry were quick to step up when we asked them if they would consider participating. All have generously donated their time to help others in the real estate space navigate their way through these challenging times.”
Mr. Panos said that coaching and mentoring during these challenging times is important for the industry and how agents interact with their clients.
“These live online webinars are designed to give those in the industry insights and strategies to continue their business at a unique time when many have had to work in isolation. That is a new experience for them.
“We have designed four events of one hour each Monday that will showcase live conversations with the best agents in Australia so everyone can access this information. All they need is an internet connection and they can learn from the best at no cost,” Mr Panos added.
“The AREC team and Tom have worked so closely over the last decade it was an easy collaboration to get off the ground quickly. We don’t want real estate participants to leave the industry when a few insights or words of encouragement could keep them rolling while this passes,” Mr McGrath said.
Nichola Byrne, General Manager of Total Real Estate Training, said “While we had to postpone AREC2020 and other training conferences as a result of COVID-19, we can use the latest technology to deliver world class training and education. In this instance we are utilising the platform provided through LinkedIn Events, and are excited to be the first in our industry to leverage this new tool and solution as we adapt during this pandemic. The real estate industry as we know it has changed, however education will always be a primary resource for agents who need to be at the top of their game. Now more than ever, they need to be agile as they adjust to how they transact properties and serve their clients.”
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Ms Byrne adds, “AREC is known for its desire to share information for the benefit of our industry. We are proud of this legacy, and believe it is important to continue doing that in whatever way we can.”
Click here to access <a href="https://tompanos.ontraport.com/c/s/5jN/sgxZP/6/s7y/xwy/6iqk8x/zonDyg5tFJ/P/P/sL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">AREC 2020 - Legends of Real Estate</a> (part 2/4):
<ul>
<li><a href="https://tompanos.ontraport.com/c/s/5jN/sgxZP/s/s72/xwy/6iqk8x/6IaLPyv72z/P/P/sL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Peter Chauncy</a> - McGrath Estate Agents, NSW</li>
<li><a href="https://tompanos.ontraport.com/c/s/5jN/sgxZP/v/s78/xwy/6iqk8x/CZZaQvO0c/P/P/sL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Josh Tesolin</a> - Australian Real Estate, NSW</li>
<li>
<a href="https://tompanos.ontraport.com/c/s/5jN/sgxZP/z/s77/xwy/6iqk8x/vl6XBTTyPC/P/P/sL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Lisa Novak</a> - Novak Properties, NSW  </li>
</ul>
The speakers for <a href="https://tompanos.ontraport.com/c/s/5jN/sgxZP/U/s7q/xwy/6iqk8x/YjvcrRMMk/P/P/sL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">AREC 2020 (part 3/4)</a> will go LIVE at 10:00am AEST today:
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<li>Tanja Neven-Jones - O'Brien Real Estate, VIC</li>
<li>Simon Caulfield - Place, QLD</li>
<li>Matt Lancashire - Ray White, QLD</li>
</ul>
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AREC launches free live industry webinars during COVID-19

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House prices continue to defy forecasts of dramatic decreases from the virus shutdown – and the significance of that continues to be downplayed and misreported by mainstream media.
It would be refreshing is journalists could simply report the facts, in an even and balanced way, rather than go to extraordinary lengths to find negatives to feature in their headlines.
Let’s look at the facts. Figures published on 1 May by CoreLogic show that house prices nationally recorded another small increase in April.
The CoreLogic figures confirmed those published a few days earlier by SQM Research, showing that most capital cities had recorded rises in the past month.
The CoreLogic figures indicate that six of the eight capital cities, and six of the seven regional jurisdictions, recorded some level of increase in their house price indexes during April.
The biggest increases for the month were recorded in Darwin and Regional Tasmania, which both rose 1.1% in April.
Nationally, there was a 0.2% increase in house prices during the month. It’s a very small increase - but in the circumstances any rise is remarkable.
And it defies media forecasts a significant decline in April.
A month ago, when the figures for March (showing price rises in most markets across the nation), media generally dismissed those figures as being insignificant, as they (allegedly) pre-dated the full impact of the coronavirus shutdown.
Most articles in early April said the March figures were irrelevant and that those for April would show the full impact of the shutdown, with significant decreases predicted. There were some very negative and quite alarmist headlines a month ago.
However, the CoreLogic data shows that the housing market remains resilient in the face of the considerable forces created by the economic downturn. While sales activity has dropped markedly, and rents have fallen in some cities, housing values have not dropped.
The price data is strong also for the three months ending 30 April. All eight capital cities recorded increases in their house price indexes, headed by a 3.4% increase in Darwin and a 3.2% rise in Sydney.
Six of the seven regional markets also rose in the past quarter, with Northern Territory the only exception. The regional increases were headed by a 3% uplift in Tasmania and a 2.7% rise in Victoria.
Nationally, there was a 2% increase in the house price index in the past three months.
In annual terms, house prices are up 8.3% nationally, including a 9.8% increase in the combined capital cities index.
Keep in mind that the first of the share market meltdowns occurred on 20 February and we are now in May. We’re 10 weeks into the virus-induced economic schemozzle and, according to usual suspects like Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, we should be seeing evidence of a dramatic drop in property values.
But we’re not. We’re seeing a big fall in sales activity, but the number of properties for sale has also reduced significantly, so supply and demand remains in some sort of balance in many locations. So there’s no great pressure for prices to fall.
All this confirms anecdotal evidence from the coal face of the property industry. I’m having lots of conversations with valuers, buyers’ agents, investment advisers and marketers of various sorts who are seeing good sales happening amid strong competition and values staying firm.
The number of potential buyers in the market has dropped, but the active ones are genuine buyers, with the tyre-kickers having dropped out.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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House prices defy forecasts of dramatic virus downturn: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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GUEST OBSERVER
I just published a book, <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/economics-age-covid-19">Economics in the Age of COVID-19</a>.
It was written over the last month or so, peer-reviewed, edited and released by MIT Press.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331901/original/file-20200501-42951-xyyt58.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
This is the thoroughly-2020 story of how it happened.
Like many academics who entered our present period of isolation in mid-March, I was not at all concerned about my job and how to continue doing it.
To be sure, I would have to deal with purely online interactions with some 300 plus students but fortunately I twigged to the value of virtual lectures a few years ago.
Of course I would have to cancel all travel and conferences for the foreseeable future, but in some ways that thought was liberating.
And I would have to deal with motivating a <a href="https://www.joshuagans.com/parentonomics">teenager</a> to learn at home, and with two annoyed college students who had been forced to return home.
Obsession
For the first week I got nothing done, despite being free to do anything.
I couldn’t help but obsess over what was happening in the world.
At first it was frustration at the slow pace of government action as I constantly refreshed scant data on rising infections.
Then it was panic that those actions wouldn’t be enough.
The economic changes were unprecedented. The stock market gyrated and convulsed in tune with fear and other motives that none of us could understand.
What was clear was that if I was home, then so were most other people.
That would leave stores empty, factories shut, and services unnecessary. The vast majority of businesses rely on cash flow to keep things operating, and the cash was most definitely going to stop flowing.
While there were public health pandemic playbooks that were being followed with varying degrees of adherence, there was no economic playbook for this.
Playbook
No one had, to my knowledge, written a paper on how to shut down an economy and then simply restart it again at some unspecified time.
In my mind, the analogy was that we would have to pause things.
We happily shut down most economies each Christmas and no one screams “depression.” The easiest way to do this was to just delay bill payments without consequence.
I could think of ways to do it: loan guarantees, wage subsidies, straight out cash, moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures.
I started to write up my thoughts as if that were original and insightful. And then I saw all of my economics colleagues doing the same thing.
Everyone had simultaneously come to the same conclusion. A new playbook was being invented at the same time, all over the world.
Trillions of dollars were being spent, but it was clear to me that non-economists were somewhat dumbfounded.
Hadn’t economists warned for years against the perils of deficits? Would our children be paying for this? And what was the plan? How long was this going to last and how sure were we that we could just get things back to normal?
We economists had some answers to these questions, but not all of them.
Sharing
Like public health officials who needed to explain in far more detail what was going on with COVID-19, economists needed to explain what they were thinking when they were taking such unusual and exceptional steps.
A week into my isolation, I decided I would write a book.
It would cover all of the economic issues, conundrums and controversies that were emerging. It would put what we knew together with what we did not know and try to help people process what was happening.
It would help me get a handle it as well.
I have written <a href="https://www.joshuagans.com/parentonomics">popular</a> <a href="https://www.joshuagans.com/innovation-equality">economics</a> <a href="https://www.predictionmachines.ai/">books</a> before, but never as quickly.
My plan was to write 10 chapters – one a day – and then publish. In terms of that last step, I could self-publish, but, given the speed at which I was working, I couldn’t be confident I wouldn’t miss things. It had to be peer-reviewed.
Most academic publishers work slowly but I contacted MIT Press and asked if they could do things differently. They came through in ways that I did not anticipate.
As it turns out MIT Press had recently collaborated with the MIT Media Lab on a platform called <a href="https://www.pubpub.org/">PubPub</a>. It is built to allow public comment and review. The plan was for me to write the book and after an editorial review, post the entire thing to PubPub for open review by members of the public.
It was posted on <a href="https://economics-in-the-age-of-covid-19.pubpub.org/">April 7</a>, just 19 days after I first had the idea to write a book.
There were only 8 chapters, but they were longer than I had anticipated – 30,000 words in all. You can see that version <a href="https://economics-in-the-age-of-covid-19.pubpub.org/">here</a>.
Feedback
Then MIT Press sent it out to peer reviewers whom they pushed to return comments within a week.
In the meantime, I kept writing. Things were evolving quickly. More critically, economic research was flooding in as economists from all over the world diverted their energies from what they had been doing to researching different aspects of the crisis.
In the end, my guess is that 80% of the citations in the book were from two months in one year – March and April, 2020!
Finally, I had to incorporate a wealth of comments from open and peer review. The former (public comments) were actually more detailed and useful than the latter (peer comments), which raises issues for the future.
In the end, on April 22 (one week ahead of schedule), the electronic version of my book was published globally.
It was 40,000 words long and hopefully would remain relevant for a few months. It’s for sale <a href="https://www.joshuagans.com/economics-in-the-age-of-covid19">here</a>.
Do I recommend undertaking this type of challenge?
Next book
Overall, I am pleased there is something out there for people to read and digest.
But personally, it was more gruelling than I had anticipated. That wasn’t because of the intensity of the work, but because of its subject matter.
My other books were <a href="https://www.joshuagans.com/parentonomics">positive</a> and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Finishing-Job-Real-World-Solutions-Education-ebook/dp/B00I9CANXU/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1422105981&amp;sr=8-2&amp;keywords=finishing+the+job">optimistic</a>. This one was, for the most part, depressing. The first words were “everything is awful”, and it didn’t get better.
My editor called the first version of the ending bleak. There were days in which I was overwhelmed by my own words and had to retire to a couch until I could pick myself up again.
Thankfully, despite my own feelings, most of those who have read the book have come away concerned and informed, rather than lost and hopeless. That’s something.
The journey isn’t over. MIT Press will publish the usual version of the book in November. I will update it continually for a month or so before then.
There is still so much we do not know. We are learning more about COVID-19 and producing lots of studies, but I think the actual flow of knowledge has been disappointingly slow.
That’ll be the theme of the followup.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137489/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joshua-gans-399">Joshua Gans</a>, Professor of Strategic Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-toronto-1281">University of Toronto</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-i-wrote-and-published-a-book-about-the-economics-of-coronavirus-in-a-month-137489">original article</a>.
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Writing a book on the economics of coronavirus in a month: Joshua Gans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Amidst a global pandemic, some people are starting to dream big about infrastructure projects to help get Australia moving again. The decades-old dream of an Australian fast train is <a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-backs-economic-game-changer-high-speed-rail-as-part-of-pandemic-recovery-20200418-p54l24">back in the headlines</a>. But, as alluring as it sounds, the federal opposition’s idea for a bullet train from Melbourne to Brisbane is not a good use of a generation’s worth of infrastructure spending.
After the coronavirus crisis, there may be good reasons to fast-track infrastructure to create jobs and stimulate the economy. But it remains as important as ever that funding go only to worthy projects. A bullet train does not fit the bill.
No silver bullet
Federal Labor <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-backs-economic-game-changer-high-speed-rail-as-part-of-pandemic-recovery-20200418-p54l24">claims</a> the train would be an “economic game-changer” for the regions in its path. But a <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2-Main_Report_Low_Res.pdf">study</a> into the train, commissioned by Labor itself in government in 2010, found no evidence for this.
Any regional development was too uncertain, the authors concluded, to be considered in their cost-benefit analysis. In fact, they found the project could damage towns along the route:
The history of the impact of transport improvement in Australian towns is that they concentrate activity in the larger centres and create commuter towns lacking in higher level services. Without concerted efforts to the contrary, this is also a likely outcome of the introduction of HSR [high-speed rail].
Of course, as advocates will be quick to point out, the study did conclude total benefits would outweigh costs by a considerable margin: $2.30 in benefit for every $1 of cost. But this rosy calculation was based on a series of assumptions that are either outdated or inappropriate. As our upcoming report on fast rail will explain in more detail, it’s unlikely the train’s benefits would exceed its costs if a rigorous independent assessment were carried out today.
The benefits are also narrowly concentrated. The biggest winners would be business travellers between Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Wider benefits to society accounted for only 3% of the total, and the effect on economic growth was expected to be minimal.
That’s because the train would take a very long time to build. According to the study, the project would only be “shovel ready” 15 years after funding was committed. This makes it completely ineffective as a timely stimulus during a downturn.
Advocates also argue the train would reduce emissions by taking high-emitting planes out of the sky. But a net reduction won’t be achieved for many years – maybe decades – because constructing the line would create so many emissions.
If built, this train would be the most expensive infrastructure project in Australian history. The study estimated the price tag at A$114 billion – A$130 billion in today’s dollars. As our chart shows, this is enough to pay for an entire generation’s worth of infrastructure.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 Projects are not presented as an alternative to the train but provide a point of reference for the scale of spending required for the high-speed rail project. Projects in yellow have active government funding commitments. Figures indicate total project funding costs, including private contributions. Figure for the fast train is in 2019 dollars. Source: Based on most recent figures from Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications, Infrastructure Australia, NSW, Victorian and Queensland governments, Brisbane City Council, AECOM, ABS, Author provided
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="" width="335" height="349">
So what should be done?
It is true current low interest rates would make borrowing to pay for such a large project cheaper than ever before, and fast-tracking infrastructure may be justified to aid economic recovery. But that doesn’t give governments a blank cheque to spend on whatever they like. The crisis does not absolve government of its responsibility to scrutinise projects to decide whether they are worthwhile.
A good place to start is by identifying the problem you want to solve.
If regional development is the goal, other options are available to governments that are more likely to be effective than a bullet train. <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/IV_30_Year_Strategy_WEB_V2.pdf">Infrastructure Victoria</a> and <a href="https://insw-sis.visualise.today/documents/INSW_2018SIS_BuildingMomentum_Summary.pdf">Infrastructure NSW</a> both identify better digital connectivity as a pressing need for regional and rural areas. The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nbn-urged-to-intervene-as-pandemic-tests-broadband-connections-20200316-p54ain">current strain</a> on the national broadband network as many of us try to work from home is a good reminder of the link between connectivity and productivity.
If governments do want to focus on transport, “smaller picture” projects, though not as glamorous, tend to deliver more bang for buck, as <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/remarkably-adaptive/">previous Grattan work</a> has argued.
Projects that can be fast-tracked to start construction soon are also more likely to support economic recovery. Infrastructure Australia’s <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/current_priority_list_%20february_2020.pdf">priority list</a> suggests a range of transport projects and initiatives that are much further developed, including improving the Sydney-Canberra rail link. And the priority list includes projects that benefit all states and territories, not just the big three on the east coast.
The coronavirus crisis has upended many of our assumptions about “normal operating procedure” for governments. But it doesn’t mean we throw the old rule book out the window. Governments should only spend public money on projects that have clear and tangible benefits to society – not on grand “nation-building” projects that are big on style but low on substance.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136834/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marion-terrill-169480">Marion Terrill</a>, Transport and Cities Program Director, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-crowley-1041697">Tom Crowley</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/look-beyond-a-silver-bullet-train-for-stimulus-136834">original article</a>.
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