Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

Coronavirus

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Headline GDP rose by 0.5 per cent in Q4 to be 2.2 per cent higher over the year, a moderate result ahead of an expected virus-driven fall in output in Q1.
 Notwithstanding a significant contribution from the recovery in housing turnover and small improvement in consumer spending, private domestic demand remains weak with falling residential construction and business investment subtracting 0.3ppt from growth. Net exports and stocks helped offset this weakness. 
While the focus of policy-makers has turned to the impact of the coronavirus on both the global and domestic economies, today’s outcome confirms a below trend pace of growth as a starting point even with the strong recovery in housing turnover, with a turnaround unlikely for some time given residential investment has yet to trough, consumer spending is constrained by weak wage growth and businesses outside of mining remain reluctant to invest.
 Factoring in an initial hit from the virus outbreak, this leads us to forecast growth to remain below trend over the next year or so, before seeing a small improvement. There is significant uncertainty about the extent and duration of the shock from the outbreak, but this outlook points to rising unemployment over 2020 and likely further action from the RBA beyond our expected rate cut in April. 
We will update our forecasts for growth, the labour market and the policy outlook next week.
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In Q4, weak private demand growth was driven by a fall in dwelling investment which is now down 9.7 per cent over the year, and a decline business investment. While consumption growth improved, it also continues to track well below its long- run average, reinforcing our long-held view that tax rebates have failed to provide a significant boost to household spending.
 Indeed, part of the increase in consumption reflects extreme price discounting. Public-sector spending made no contribution following the solid outcome in Q3. Offsetting some of this weakness was a 0.1 contribution from exports - though this is a little weaker than recent quarters. A significant (though likely) temporary boost to the expenditure side came from the recovery in housing turnover which saw a boost to real estate margins. 
Both the production and income measures of GDP were slightly stronger than the expenditure measure in the quarter.
Looking forward, the magnitude of the bushfires and especially the coronavirus impact on the March quarter will be a focus, as will the ongoing impacts of the latter in subsequent quarters. For now, we have factored in a decline in March quarter GDP, but for a small recovery in quarterly growth thereafter on the assumption that the virus is quickly contained. 
As a result, we see year-average growth of 1.2 per cent in 2020 before an improvement in 2021 to around 2.7 per cent. Should the impact of the virus become more protracted this will necessarily see a down grade to our forecasts for growth. 
Notwithstanding the impact of the virus, our read is that the sluggish pace of underlying growth already warrants further policy action, with below-trend growth over the next 18 months likely to see a deterioration in the labour market with further downside risk as a result of ongoing impacts from the coronavirus.
 Indeed, we see the RBA cutting rates for a second time in 2020 at the April meeting and a significant risk of unconventional policy going forward depending on the severity of the uptick in the unemployment rate as well as the magnitude and impact of any response from fiscal policy.
Household consumption growth improved slightly in Q4, rising 0.4 per cent q/q but remains weak at 1.2 per cent y/y – the weakest pace since the GFC. The drivers of consumption growth in the quarter were increases in discretionary categories including clothing &amp; footwear, household goods and recreation and culture – possibly reflecting some impact from the earlier tax cuts.
Nonetheless, spending on discretionary items has remained weak over the year, with spending on essentials having driven the bulk of consumption growth. 
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Underlying business investment declined by -0.8 per cent q/q, similar to Q3 (-1.1 per cent q/q). Unlike Q3, however, weakness in business investment was driven by non-mining investment which fell 3.6 per cent, while mining investment increased by 5.0 per cent q/q.
Mining investment in Q4 was 3.2 per cent higher than the same time a year ago – the first time annual growth has been positive since 2013 other than one-off gain posted in Q3 2017. The turnaround in mining was not unexpected, but the decline in commodity prices that started towards the end of last year, now reinforced by the coronavirus shock to the world economy, casts doubt on whether this will be sustained. At the same time, weak business conditions remain a headwind for non-mining sector investment.
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 Dwelling investment fell 3.4 per cent in the quarter driven by a fall in investment in construction (-4.1 per cent) and a fall in alterations &amp; additions (-2.2 per cent). Over the year dwelling investment has fallen 9.7 per cent. This result is unsurprising given the weakness in work done, and the ongoing weakness in dwelling approvals. These data also confirm the downturn in construction is not over. The decline was driven by a fall in NSW and QLD, though construction also declined in WA and Tas. Vic saw a small improvement in the quarter.</div>
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 Government demand growth slowed considerably from Q3. Underlying public demand grew by 0.1 per cent q/q, well down from 2.0 per cent in Q3. However, growth over the last year was a still solid 5.1 per cent y/y. Government consumption growth was 0.7 per cent q/q – the lowest growth since Q2 2018 due to a fall in defence spending (a volatile component) and another quarter of very modest state/local government consumption growth. In contrast, Federal non-defence spending grew by 2.4 per cent q/q (10 per cent y/y), likely reflecting disability and aged care spending.</div>
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<div class="column">Underlying public investment declined 2.3 per cent q/q, but this followed a 6 per cent increase in Q3, and it was 4.2 per cent higher than a year ago. Overall, the roll-out of the NDIS and large infrastructure programs still appear to be supporting the economy – and a fiscal package expected in the next week or so, will also provide additional support to Q2 data.</div>
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 Net exports made a 0.1ppts contribution to quarterly GDP growth even with export volumes basically unchanged in the quarter, as imports declined (-0.5 per cent q/q). Exports and imports of non-monetary gold declined substantially masking growth, overall, in other trade flows.</div>
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<div class="column">On the export side, there was a large increase in manufacturing exports (7.6 per cent q/q), with smaller increases in commodity exports – both rural and non-rural. Capital and intermediate goods imports increased, but services imports fell (driven by travel, which has declined in each of the last four quarters), and there was a small decline in consumption goods imports.</div>
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<div class="column">Over the last year, total imports have declined by 1.5 per cent, consistent with the weakness in domestic demand. Travel exports and imports will decline sharply in Q1.</div>
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 Compensation of employees rose by 1.0 per cent in the quarter (5.1 per cent y/y). While employment continued to rise, average COE per employee also increased by a moderate 0.5 per cent in the quarter. COE per hour continued to track above the WPI but saw a moderation in year-ended growth in the quarter. The boost to household income growth from tax cuts in Q3 faded in the quarter which also saw the household savings rate tick down.</div>
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 By industry, real estate services saw the strongest quarterly growth (up 2.7 per cent on a quarterly basis), likely reflecting the improvement in housing sales. Manufacturing (notably in food products), transport, healthcare and social assistance and mining also grew strongly, as did mining. Construction contracted 2.3 per cent on a quarterly basis, with building construction, engineering and construction services all hit down. Mining, manufacturing, transport, real estate services, public administration and health care each contributed 0.1 per cent to GDP growth in the December quarter, while construction detracted 0.2 per cent from growth.</div>
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<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/3/5/1_Industry%20growth.jpg" alt="" width="629" height="406"></div>
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 By state, the ACT experienced the fastest growth in state final demand (+0.8 per cent q/q), followed by NSW (+0.5 per cent), with the latter result largely reflecting growth in public consumption and investment spending. NT SFD rose by 0.3 per cent, its first increase since Q3 2017, reflecting a big boost in public investment and to a lesser extent petroleum exploration (perhaps driven by the end of the NT’s fracking ban). Queensland recorded growth of 0.2 per cent q/q, while Victoria saw a fall of 0.1 per cent, largely reflecting a slowdown in major road construction. SA and WA both contracted 0.2 per cent, driven by falls in private and public investment. Tasmania fell 1.0 per cent on lower public and private investment; non-dwelling construction fell 18.6 per cent on reduced energy and accommodation project spending.</div>
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 The slide in farm GDP was arrested in Q4 on a quarterly basis, up 0.4 per cent, although it remains lower on an annual basis (down 3.0 per cent). While the drought continued to wreak havoc in New South and Queensland in Q4, this led to higher cattle and sheep slaughter and therefore higher meat production. 2020 has brought a deluge to many Australian agricultural regions, which is very welcome relief indeed. However, this may be slow to show up in 2020 GDP as graziers rebuild herds and flocks – reducing meat production. It remains too early to say how the 2020-21 winter cropping season will perform.</div>
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ALAN OSTER is the Chief Economist at NAB Group
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Coronavirus to slow Australian GDP significantly: NAB's Alan Oster

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The University of Sydney has announced new measures to reduce the growing financial impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, demonstrating the widespread effect the epidemic is having on economic confidence.
Current estimates predict that the University is facing a shortfall of more than $200 million as part of the $2.8 billion budget, according to Vice Chancellor Dr Michael Spence.
“We’ve always made responsible financial planning a priority and have a range of strategies in place to allow us to respond to a number of different financial scenarios, including this current one,” Mr Spence said.
“Our focus remains on the health and welfare of all our students and staff, both on campus and overseas, and in ensuring our world leading research and teaching can continue.”
“We know these measures will create some challenges, but they are aimed at ensuring we can continue to contain the financial impact of this ongoing global health crisis.”
The Vice Chancellor said the measures, which are drawn from the University’s longstanding financial risk mitigation plan, include a pause on all capital spending, project spending, recruitment, international travel, and a basis-by-basis revaluation of a contractors and consultants.
Two scenarios were modelled, with the first based on whether 8700 affected international students would have to defer one semester (Scenario 1) or 15,000 affected international students deferred the whole year (Scenario 2).
Under Scenario 1 we would see a reduction of approximately $1.4 billion to the NSW Gross State Product (GSP) with approximately 10,700 full time jobs impacted.
Under Scenario 2 we would see a reduction of approximately $2.2 billion to the NSW Gross State Product (GSP) with over 15,000 full time jobs impacted.
The top four affected sectors would be retail trade, accommodation and food services, professional, scientific and technical services and administrative and support services.
“This modelling makes clear that the benefits international students bring when they choose to study in Sydney go far beyond the university sector. For the state more broadly, for retailers, hospitality workers and tradespeople, international students are helping to keep the NSW economy turning,” the Vice Chancellor added.
“As always, the health and safety of our staff and students, whether here on campus or overseas, remains our highest priority and we will continue to follow NSW Health advice. As part of that we’ve stepped up the frequency of cleaning across campus; put up signage regarding hygiene practices and installed a large number of hand sanitiser units.”
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Coronavirus threat compels Sydney University to introduce protective measures 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Never has a virus featured so prominently in a Reserve Bank statement.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318243/original/file-20200303-18287-3jgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318243/original/file-20200303-18287-3jgff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Source: <a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-06" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>
The word “coronavirus” is mentioned <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-06" target="_blank">nine times</a> in the governor’s seven-paragraph statement.
His board cut the cash rate from an all-time low of 0.75 per cent to a new all-time low of 0.50 per cent “to support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak”.
Up until the coronavirus, it had looked as if “the slowdown in the global economy that started in 2018 was coming to an end”.
The coronavirus has “clouded” that outlook.
It is “too early to tell how persistent the effects of the coronavirus will be and at what point the global economy will return to an improving path”.
Financial markets have been volatile “as market participants assess the risks associated with the coronavirus”.
In most economies, including the United States, there is an expectation of further rate cuts.
The coronavirus is having a “significant effect” on Australia’s real economy, particularly in the education and travel industries.
The uncertainty is “also likely to affect domestic spending”.
GDP growth in the March quarter (but not the December quarter whose figures will be released on Wednesday) is likely to be “noticeably weaker than earlier expected”.
Once the coronavirus is contained, the Australian economy is expected to return to an improving trend.
But given the evolving situation, it is difficult to predict how large and long-lasting the effect will be.
Summing up, the bank says the global outbreak is “expected to delay progress in Australia towards full employment and the inflation target”.
It decided to cut rates to provide “additional support to employment and economic activity”. Importantly, it will continue to monitor developments closely with a view to doing more.
The final sentence, the one which usually carries the key message, says: “the board is prepared to ease monetary policy further to support the Australian economy”.
<h2>Would it have cut without the coronavirus?</h2>
It probably wouldn’t have cut without the coronavirus. It most likely would have had to cut at some point because the economy is weak. We will get an update about how things were in the three months to December on Wednesday, but the news up to the end of September was awful.
Household spending, which accounts for more than half of gross domestic product, barely budged. Over the year to September it grew just 1.2 per cent in real terms, the least since the global financial crisis. Australia’s population grew 1.6 per cent in that time, meaning the volume of goods and services bought per person went backwards.
Early figures on private new capital expenditure which will be incorporated into the national accounts released on Wednesday show business investment went backwards over the December quarter (down 2.8 per cent) and over the entire year (down 5.8 per cent).
The May budget and the December budget update forecast a jump in business investment, which it is hard to see happening.
Governor Philip Lowe has been reluctant to cut in part because he is running out of traditional ammunition.
He has said that for practical purposes the next step – 0.25 per cent – is zero, a point beyond which he would <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-11-26" target="_blank">need to use unconventional measures</a> (which have been used so much overseas they are no longer that unconventional) to stimulate the economy further.
The most likely one is buying government and mortgage bonds from investors in order to <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-we-know-the-reserve-bank-has-spelled-out-what-it-will-do-when-rates-approach-zero-127697" target="_blank">force money into their hands</a>, making the cash rate graph the bank has been updating for 30 years now no longer relevant as an indicator of what it is doing to stimulate the economy.
<hr>
Reserve Bank cash rate
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318234/original/file-20200303-18270-1bjl5b0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318234/original/file-20200303-18270-1bjl5b0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<hr>
He has decided to cut because he is contractually obligated to do what he can to contribute to “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/about-rba/our-role" target="_blank">the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia</a>”, which is at risk.
<h2>What good will the cut do?</h2>
Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank announced they were passing the cut on to borrowers straight away after an appeal by Prime Minister Scott Morrison to their better natures.
The government would absolutely expect the four big banks to come to the table and to do their bit in supporting Australians as we go through the impact of the coronavirus. I don’t see it any different to what Qantas did when we called out to Qantas and we said, we need your help, we need to get some people out of China.
Before today’s decisions the average standard variable mortgage rate was 4.7 per cent The average basic variable mortgage rate was 3.05 per cent. Today’s cuts will take it to 2.8 per cent.
They will save many mortgage holders an extra A$30 per month on repayments on top of the $150 saved since June. That will allow them to spend more or to borrow more by extending their mortgages, further increasing the financial attractiveness of investments such as solar panels or home insulation, and perhaps further supporting home prices which have turned up since the bank began cutting.
Where mortgage holders direct the proceeds of the cuts to Australian businesses, it’ll help keep them afloat or give them the confidence to borrow for expansion at record low interest rates.
Although it is often said that interest rate cuts have less effect when interest rates get low, there is no particular reason to believe this is the case. There is reason to believe interest rate cuts have little effect when consumers and businesses have other reasons for not borrowing or spending much, which might well be the case at the moment.
<h2>What will the government do?</h2>
The government is drawing up a stimulus plan. Just don’t call it that.
Morrison says it will:
<blockquote>
be a targeted plan, it will be a measured plan, it will be a scalable plan, we will ensure that we do not make the same mistakes of previous stimulus measures that have been put in place.
</blockquote>
That probably means he won’t be delivering cheques to households as Labor did during the global financial crisis. The Coalition tried something similar, delivering out-sized tax refund cheques after the May budget, and it didn’t work that well.
He’ll almost certainly announce new investment allowances for businesses; if necessary, ones that effectively pay them to borrow.
And he and his ministers will be surveying the economy sector by sector.
He has spoken personally with the bosses of Coles and Woolworths seeking assurances they won’t run low on supplies. He says if necessary they can talk to each other, something normally not allowed by competition rules.
They have already talked to Kimberly Clark, which manufactures toilet paper. It has set up a line of production in South Australia to ensure shops don’t run out.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132871/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-word-repeated-9-times-explains-why-the-reserve-bank-cut-its-coronavirus-132871" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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One word repeated nine times explains why the Reserve Bank cut: it's ‘coronavirus’

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Experts fear the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will need to take action in the wake of the COVID-19 (coronavirus), according to Finder.
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™ 20 economists specifically called out the threat the virus poses.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder said, “house prices are still rising in an almost unsubstantiated way, the effect of the smouldering bushfires is still to be felt, and inflation is still sluggish – but it’s the coronavirus above all that is concerning economists right now.
“Specifically, whether the affected countries can keep a lid on the spread of the virus. With COVID-19 now spreading through Europe and the Middle East, that looks unlikely.”
The major fears of the panel centred around education, tourism and property. This follows last week’s news that the Aussie dollar had dipped to 65 US cents, a low-water mark last seen in March 2009.
A budget surplus, as promised by the federal government, now looks unlikely, according to economists.
Nineteen experts (66%) said a surplus was unlikely, with a further two (7%) saying it was very unlikely.
Since the outbreak started to affect Australian markets on Feb 21st, the ASX200 has fallen 10%.
Cooke said COVID-19 fears, along with the uncertainty of the impact of the bushfires, has driven overall economic confidence down amongst the panel to an all-time low of 8% across the five metrics tracked. This is down from a high of 31% in April of 2019.
90% predict a cash rate cut in 2020
Nearly all experts (90%, 35/39) in Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey expect an RBA rate cut to happen in 2020, while just 15% (6/39) are predicting a cut on Tuesday.
Cooke said he was surprised to see even 15% of our experts predict a cut this month.
“With the resurgence of the housing market still happening, coronavirus hitting markets hard and general economic figures remaining stagnant, the general consensus is that it’s too turbulent a time to make the call for a rate easing.
“However, all experts, bar four, are predicting that a cut is on the horizon,” Cooke said.
Seven respondents (18%) expect a 0.25% cash rate by the end of the year, and 28 (72%) expect 0.50%.”
April and May are the most likely months for a cut, cited by ten (26%) and nine (23%) experts respectively.
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Coronavirus economic impacts have only just begun: Finder.com.au

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The Australian Academy of Science has just published a new fact-checked video explainer on the coronavirus answering the following questions.
What is a pandemic? 
How close are we to finding a vaccine? 
How is COVID-19 transmitted? How do I protect myself?
 How is COVID-19 different from other diseases like SARS?
 How concerned should we be? 
Watch the video here: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCUZ0Bg-k-0&amp;t=" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCUZ0Bg-k-0&amp;t=</a>
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The facts on the Coronavirus: Australian Academy of Science

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian property market – particularly Melbourne and Sydney – has gone from boom and FOMO in 2017 to slump and FONGO into mid last year only to rebound again with a degree of FOMO returning! (FOMO = fear of missing out, FONGO = fear of not getting out.)
The boost from the election result, RBA rate cuts, the relaxation of the 7% mortgage rate serviceability test along with a greater willingness to lend by banks are continuing to drive home prices higher as demand that was pent up over the period of falling prices between September 2017 and June last year has been unleashed.
 The strength in demand continues to be evident in strong auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne.
While this initially came on very low volumes, listings have now picked up following the normal pattern that sees clearances lead volumes. As a result sales at auctions are now running around double depressed year ago levels.
The high level of auction clearance rates points to a continuing strength in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne in the months ahead and this is likely to be aided by further interest rate cuts and strong population growth.
 However, the pace of growth is likely to slow with home price gains more constrained than what we saw through the 2012-17 property price boom because: 
Household debt to income ratios are very high, bank lending standards are much tighter than in the last boom, APRA may move to tighten lending standards again if housing credit growth accelerates; there are still more units to hit the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and unemployment is likely to drift up as overall economic growth remains weak. 
For 2020 as a whole average capital city property prices are expected to rise by around 10%, with continuing strong gains in the first quarter giving way to a more constrained pace from around April-June.
We also anticipate a broadening out of the property price gains beyond Sydney and Melbourne as Brisbane and Adelaide our relatively cheap and Perth looks to have bottomed and will be helped by a recovery in mining projects.
However, a big and rising risk to the property market outlook is now posed by the global coronavirus outbreak. 
At this stage apart from the possible absence of some Chinese buyers I doubt coronavirus is having much impact on the property market.
 However, if the situation badly worsens globally and the virus takes hold in Australia then it could become a big short term negative as the economy slows even further potentially into recession, the loss of share market wealth drags on property demand and if people put off buying property along with other activities for fear of catching the virus.
 More RBA rate cuts could partially help in the other direction and help boost buying once the virus fear comes under control though, but in the interim it could drive renewed falls in property prices. 
This is not our base case but given all the unknowns around Covid-19 it is worth monitoring as the risk is rising.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
<a name="_Hlk7176352" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline;" href=""></a>The Australian property market – particularly Melbourne and Sydney – has gone from boom and FOMO in 2017 to slump and FONGO into mid last year only to rebound again with a degree of FOMO returning! (FOMO = fear of missing out, FONGO = fear of not getting out.)
The boost from the election result, RBA rate cuts, the relaxation of the 7% mortgage rate serviceability test along with a greater willingness to lend by banks are continuing to drive home prices higher as demand that was pent up over the period of falling prices between September 2017 and June last year has been unleashed. The strength in demand continues to be evident in strong auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne. See the next two charts.
 
<table style="font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: inherit; font-family: 'Segoe UI', 'Segoe UI Web (West European)', 'Segoe UI', -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; color: #323130; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr>
<td style="width: 233.75pt; padding: 0px 5.4pt; border: 1pt solid windowtext;" valign="top">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAC0lEQVQYV2NgAAIAAAUAAarVyFEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: inherit; width: 364.79pt; height: 221.4pt; cursor: pointer;" data-imagetype="AttachmentByCid" data-custom="AAMkADQ3ZGM4MTFjLTUzM2MtNGRlMy1hNTRkLTVlMTg5NTg1MTZjNABGAAAAAACwVkXUIRtYR67gBrMt3wq%2FBwDeQoafX1oGQ7i8PLrB5m%2FDAAAAAAEMAADeQoafX1oGQ7i8PLrB5m%2FDAAGX6uVdAAABEgAQAKCx7jCjebxJntP04tMxgUM%3D" data-outlook-trace="F:1|T:1">
</td>
<td style="width: 233.75pt; padding: 0px 5.4pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext;" valign="top">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAC0lEQVQYV2NgAAIAAAUAAarVyFEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: inherit; width: 365.4pt; height: 221.99pt; cursor: pointer;" data-imagetype="AttachmentByCid" data-custom="AAMkADQ3ZGM4MTFjLTUzM2MtNGRlMy1hNTRkLTVlMTg5NTg1MTZjNABGAAAAAACwVkXUIRtYR67gBrMt3wq%2FBwDeQoafX1oGQ7i8PLrB5m%2FDAAAAAAEMAADeQoafX1oGQ7i8PLrB5m%2FDAAGX6uVdAAABEgAQAJqCdDsOBpVDkmUCWbIwRTY%3D" data-outlook-trace="F:1|T:1">
</td>
</tr></tbody></table>
<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 7pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: inherit;">Source: Domain, CoreLogic, AMP Capital
<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 7pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: inherit;"> 
While this initially came on very low volumes, listings have now picked up following the normal pattern that sees clearances lead volumes. As a result sales at auctions are now running around double depressed year ago levels.
<img src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAC0lEQVQYV2NgAAIAAAUAAarVyFEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: inherit; width: 353.99pt; height: 215.39pt; cursor: pointer;" data-imagetype="AttachmentByCid" data-custom="AAMkADQ3ZGM4MTFjLTUzM2MtNGRlMy1hNTRkLTVlMTg5NTg1MTZjNABGAAAAAACwVkXUIRtYR67gBrMt3wq%2FBwDeQoafX1oGQ7i8PLrB5m%2FDAAAAAAEMAADeQoafX1oGQ7i8PLrB5m%2FDAAGX6uVdAAABEgAQAL7iZEfT4%2FpKhNddj9J8F%2BI%3D" data-outlook-trace="F:1|T:1">
<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 7pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: inherit;">Source: Domain, AMP Capital
The high level of auction clearance rates points to a continuing strength in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne in the months ahead and this is likely to be aided by further interest rate cuts and strong population growth. However, the pace of growth is likely to slow with home price gains more constrained than what we saw through the 2012-17 property price boom because: household debt to income ratios are very high, bank lending standards are much tighter than in the last boom, APRA may move to tighten lending standards again if housing credit growth accelerates; there are still more units to hit the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and unemployment is likely to drift up as overall economic growth remains weak. For 2020 as a whole average capital city property prices are expected to rise by around 10%, with continuing strong gains in the first quarter giving way to a more constrained pace from around April-June.
We also anticipate a broadening out of the property price gains beyond Sydney and Melbourne as Brisbane and Adelaide our relatively cheap and Perth looks to have bottomed and will be helped by a recovery in mining projects.
However, a big and rising risk to the property market outlook is now posed by the global coronavirus outbreak. At this stage apart from the possible absence of some Chinese buyers I doubt coronavirus is having much impact on the property market. However, if the situation badly worsens globally and the virus takes hold in Australia then it could become a big short term negative as the economy slows even further potentially into recession, the loss of share market wealth drags on property demand and if people put off buying property along with other activities for fear of catching the virus. More RBA rate cuts could partially help in the other direction and help boost buying once the virus fear comes under control though, but in the interim it could drive renewed falls in property prices. This is not our base case but given all the unknowns around Covid-19 it is worth monitoring as the risk is rising.
Please feel free to call if you wish to discuss.
 
Regards
Shane
 
<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 8pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #0070c0;">Shane Oliver<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 8pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #0070c0;"> <span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 8pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #212d69;">| Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist | AMP Capital 
<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 8pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #212d69;"> 
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Capital city home prices up however Coronavirus risk is low but growing: Shane Oliver

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<h2>OPINION: </h2>

Australia’s housing market is a topic which I regularly encounter, whether with our customers, readers or even just friends. Whether you are a homeowner, investor or potential buyer, the housing market will impact you in one form or another.

Since the start of 2020, the market has been <a href="/guides/overwhelming-sales-statistics-last-week-reveal-reinstated-confidence-in-the-off-the-plan-market">performing strongly</a>, where we saw last week’s clearance rate around 80% in both Melbourne and Sydney. The number of properties going under the hammer was also the strongest since 2019, with 1000 and 800 respectively. This statistic was also reflected by the significant increase in listings in our weekly magazine.

While the signs look positive locally, how will the Coronavirus impact Australia’s property market? The main thing to look at is the impact on Australia’s economy. The Coronavirus is set to be declared a pandemic, due to the ease at which it appears to be spreading worldwide. If it can’t be contained quickly, then the impact on economic growth would look dire.

The way I see it, the impact of the virus on Chinese interests in Australian property will be both good and bad. <a href="https://firb.gov.au/">Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) reported</a> that foreign investment plunged by 58% year-on-year from $30 billion to $13 billion in the 2017/18 fiscal year – the lowest level in nearly a decade. This will be compounded by the uncertainty around the virus, so in the short term, we will definitely see a drop in demand.

The <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/news/news/Pages/continuing-travel-ban-to-protect-australians-from-the-coronavirus.aspx">current travel ban</a> has limited many Chinese nationals to enter Australia, especially the international students with many either buying for the short term or buying when they continue living in Australia after graduation. Also, if China continues to restrict the flow of funds out of their country to protect their own economy, it limits the ability of Chinese investors to <a href="/guides/2019/06/17/urbans-first-home-buyer-guide">buy property in Australia</a>. 

On the other hand, in the long term, many more Chinese may want to migrate overseas, as the virus has made them feel vulnerable in China. If so, we will see a resurgence of strong demand from Chinese foreign buyers in the near future. But a lot is dependent on how the Chinese Government limits the flow of funds to overseas if the economy is doing poorly and also if any easing of Australia’s policy towards foreigner buyers. 

Unfortunately, no one has a crystal ball to be able to accurately predict the future. We can’t be sure how the Coronavirus health crisis will pan out globally. We also can’t be exactly sure how it will affect the Australian economy or our property market until we see an end to the crisis.

<div class="rtecenter">Read next: <a href="/news/first-home-buyers-snap-up-property-due-to-fear-of-missing-out">First home buyers snap up property due to ‘fear of missing out’</a>
</div>
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Olivia Round

How will the Coronavirus impact Australia’s property market?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s catastrophic bushfire season has done immense damage to Australia’s tourist industry. Then, just as heavy rain began to bring the situation under control, came the coronavirus outbreak in China – now the top source of international visitors to Australia. Tourism from China, already greatly reduced, ended with the ban on non-citizens travelling from China.
The general assumption has been that, once the immediate crises are over, Australia’s tourist numbers will bounce back.
Optimists point to examples such as Japan following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that killed more than 15,000 people, resulted in the <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/fukushima" target="_blank">Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster</a> and forced more than 500,000 people to evacuate.
Tourism to Japan took a hit. International visits in 2011 fell 28%, to <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-it-safe-tourism-after-japans-earthquake-5691" target="_blank">6.2 million</a> from 8.6 million in 2010. By the end of 2012, however, numbers were back to more than 8.3 million. Tourism to the devastated Fukushima region took a little longer to bounce back, but by fiscal 2015 had recovered to nearly <a href="http://www.fukushimaminponews.com/news?id=709" target="_blank">90% of numbers in fiscal 2010</a>.
The same was true of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami that wreaked catastrophic damage and killed an estimated 230,000 people in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand and other countries in the Indian Ocean region.
Terrorist attacks in major cities have a similar immediate impact on travel, but this soon dissipates.
There are, however, good reasons to think this time is different.
Unprecedented duration
First, most disasters of this kind have been single-day events. Relief efforts and damage assessments can dominate the news for a week or more, but other events soon take their place.
By contrast, Australia’s bushfire emergency ran for months, generating extensive worldwide coverage for much of this time. The COVID-19 outbreak epidemic is still front-page news and will probably remain so until it has been contained.
Second, the typical shock of this kind has no long-term effect on perceptions of the country where it takes place. The vulnerability of the Pacific Rim to earthquakes and tsunamis has long been known, and the occurrence of an earthquake in Japan does not make another one any more likely (if anything the opposite).
Similarly, terrorist attacks can and do happen anywhere. While there are countries where terrorism risks discourage most tourists – Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria and Syria being <a href="http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads/2019/11/GTI-2019web.pdf">the top four</a> – in most of the world no possible destination is more or less at risk than any other, and the risk remains even if you stay at home.
By contrast, the bushfire cataclysm has been unprecedented in terms of duration and the areas in southeast Australia destroyed. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra were all cloaked in smoke.
The image of Australia as a clean, green destination for outdoor fun – promoted in an advertising campaign in Britain featuring Kylie Minogue even as the disaster raged – has been replaced by burnt-out landscapes where the next fire may be even worse than the last.
The Australian government’s handling of the issue has added to negative perceptions. International coverage of the bushfires has repeatedly mentioned the “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/as-fires-devastate-australia-a-coal-loving-leader-faces-an-early-test/2020/01/08/a7827ebc-3178-11ea-91fd-82d4e04a3fac_story">coal-loving</a>” Australian government’s failure to deal with the fact its fossil fuel exports contribute to the conditions that make catastrophic fires more likely.
Washington Post <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-06/bushfires-reap-what-australia-s-carbon-exports-have-sown">columnist David Ickling</a> put it like this:
"It’s a rude dose of reality for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, a former tourism-promotion bureaucrat whose lackadaisical, image-obsessed initial response to the fires has caused him to be lampooned on social media as #scottyfrommarketing."
"And yet a generation before Morrison came on the scene, Australia was already lying to itself and the world about its role in the climate change that has fuelled this disaster. If any goodness can sprout from the devastation of these fires, it will start with a more honest reckoning about how successive governments have sold off Australia’s future for a handful of coal."
Finally, the bushfires affected as many tourists as locals. The fires in southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria in particular trapped thousands of tourists taking Christmas-New Year holidays in normally pleasant seaside resorts.
This is not usually the case with disasters, with some exceptions. Most of the 202 people killed in the 2002 Bali bombings were tourists, for example, as were the majority of more than 4,000 people killed in Thailand by the Boxing Day tsunami.
Memories will fade over time, at least until they are rekindled by another disaster. But we should not expect this to happen quickly. The damage the bushfire catastrophe has caused to Australia’s position in the international tourism market is likely to last for years to come.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131894/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-quiggin-2084">John Quiggin</a>, Professor, School of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805">The University of Queensland</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-time-is-different-australias-tourist-numbers-may-take-years-to-recover-131894">original article</a>.
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This time is different, Australia's tourist numbers may take years to recover

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CommSec senior economist, Ryan Felsman, predicts that the RBA will cut interest rates in the coming months to support the economy.
Pressure was also building on the Federal government to announce significant fiscal initiatives in the May Budget, the analysis suggested.
It noted consumer confidence has dropped by 0.7 percent according to the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan rating system, representing an eight-month low in public economic trust.
Falling to 108.3 points, sentiment remains below both the average of 114.1 points held since 2014, and the longer-term average of 113.1 points held since 1990.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/24/cc%20CONSUMER%20CONFIDENCE.png" alt="">
Three of the five major components of the index rose last week; Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from -12.6 points to -10.5 points, economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +1.3 points to +4.0 points, the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +20.3 points to +22.4 points, and the measure of inflation expectations was up from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/24/cc%20JOB%20INSECURITY.png" alt="">
Meanwhile, the estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +8.6 points to +4.3 points, and the estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +27.7 points to +21.1 points.
Analysis by Mr Felsman suggests that Australia’s horrific fire-season over the Summer, and concerns among investors about to the growing threat of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic outside of mainland China, are largely responsible for this downturn.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/24/cc%20SPENDING%20.png" alt="">
CommSec's report notes that the Coronavirus’s cost to the Aussie economy is still largely unknown, however even minor reductions in Chinese demand for iron ore, coal, natural gas and agricultural produce could hurt Aussie exporters and producers.
The timing of the outbreak has raised particular concerns, due to its overlap with the current post-ceasefire recovery following the 2-year long US-China trade war.
Bloomberg has estimated that just 50-60 per cent of Chinese factories and businesses have reopened after the enforced extension to the Lunar New Year holiday break, however the Aussie dollar’s current weakness – at 11-year lows against the greenback – is acting as a ‘shock absorber’ for the national economy.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/24/cc%20HOLIDAYS.png" alt="">
 
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Coronavirus denting consumer confidence; CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The past week has seen a renewed escalation in concern that the coronavirus outbreak (Covid-19) has become or is becoming a global pandemic. This is first and foremost a human crisis and our thoughts are with all those affected and those trying to combat the outbreak.
Naturally though investment markets are starting to become increasingly concerned about the disruptive impact on economic activity. A
As a result, while most share markets recovered their initial decline on the back of the virus with some hitting new highs last week, we are now seeing renewed sharp falls. This note updates our initial analysis from three weeks ago as to the impact of the outbreak.
Scenarios
Our assessment three weeks ago saw as our base case with 75% probability that the outbreak would be contained within the next month or two. This could still see more downside in share markets &amp; bond yields but there would be a rebound by the June quarter as growth rebounds.
The downside case saw a full-blown pandemic with delayed containment resulting in sharp drawn out slump in economic activity, the risk of recession and a 20% or so fall in share markets with the $A falling to around $US0.60. Of course, there are lots of variations around this. We thought the key things to watch are the daily number of new cases and the spread of new cases in developed countries.
Where are we with the Covid-19 outbreak so far? 
First, while the total number of reported cases is now around 80,000 worldwide there has been some good news in that the daily number of new cases is down from its peak earlier in February. This is due to a sharp fall in the reported number of new cases in China.
This has been confused by definitional changes in China – with Hubei initially reporting lab confirmed results, then including clinically tested results, then reverting to lab tested results only. However, both approaches have issues &amp; even if it’s roughly right it’s good news if China is starting to get the outbreak under control.
Against this, the number of new cases outside China has spiked – particularly in South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran.
The mortality rate has increased to 3.3% - although there is uncertainty about it. Some argue it’s higher because it’s wrong to divide deaths into all cases as there is a lag from getting the disease to dying. Others argue it’s much lower because only those who are seriously ill are showing up for help and being measured. The mortality rate does look to be below the 9% for SARS but above that for swine flu though and it’s mainly the old and sick who are most vulnerable.
There is still much uncertainty about how it’s spread – with leaky plumping and aerosolising of toilet water or contaminated water possibly playing a role in the spread of the virus in the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
Containment measures in China have been aggressive and if the declining number of new cases in China is correct maybe they are working. Australia’s quick toughening in entry and quarantine conditions may also have helped in contrast to other countries that now have many more cases. However, some governments may not be able to implement and enforce such tough measures.
The spread of cases beyond China has raised increasing concerns that Covid-19 is become a global pandemic. While we and others have made comparisons to the SARS outbreak of 2003, the swine flu pandemic of 2009 is also relevant. Despite efforts to contain the disease it is estimated to have ultimately infected 700million to 1.4billion people but because its death rate was low at around 0.02-0.04% it doesn’t get referred to much.
Partly due to this swine flu had little impact on the global economic recovery of 2009 although it did occasionally rattle share markets. Though Covid-19’s mortality rate looks to be greater than that of swine-flu its worth noting that swine-flu’s mortality was initially reported to be as high as 9.5%
A big hit to global growth
Whether Covid-19 is soon contained, turns into a re-run of swine-flu or something a lot more deadly remains to be seen. Our base case remains one of containment by the end of March. But the risk of it taking longer is significant and in any case it’s increasingly clear that the economic impact will be quite severe as containment measures spread globally disrupting supply chains and spending. 
Some estimates suggest that as much as 50% of China’s economy has been locked down for the last three weeks which means nearly 12% knocked off Chinese GDP this quarter.
While the Chinese Government is refocussing on efforts to restore economic activity outside Hubei and highrisk areas, so far there is only mixed evidence of that. Coal consumption at power stations, migrant flows to cities, property sales and steel demand are up from their lows but remain well below normal levels for this time of year. And there has been no pickup in traffic congestion.
Numerous companies globally are reporting disruption to supply chains or reduced demand flowing from Covid-19.
Containment measures including travel restrictions in countries like Japan, Korea and Italy will spread the economic disruption globally.
Our rough estimate is that March quarter global GDP could now be zero or slightly negative. 
Australian GDP is likely to go backwards this quarter (with our current estimate being -0.1%) thanks to the bushfires and the hit from coronavirus. The vulnerability of the Australian economy to China is apparent from the next chart. Exports to China make up nearly 9% of Australia’s GDP including hard commodities at nearly 5%, tourism at 0.2% and education at 0.6%.
For other major countries it’s less than 3%. Chinese tourist arrivals stopped with the travel ban, education is under threat although there is a bit more time and bulk commodity shipments are showing signs of being impacted (although this has been distorted by storms).
Clearly the longer it drags on and the more the outbreak and disruption spreads globally the bigger the impact on Australia including the risk of two negative quarters, ie recession. The rising threat to the Australian economy from coronavirus is adding to the likelihood that the RBA will cut rates in March or April and the pressure for more fiscal stimulus in the May budget is increasing.
Concluding comments
The increasing global spread of the coronavirus has increased the risk of greater economic disruption for longer resulting in say a 20% fall in share markets. However, our base case of containment is that Chinese, global and hence Australian growth will rebound in the June quarter (avoiding recession in Australia’s case) although the risk of a delay is significant.
Against this background share markets, commodity prices and the $A remain at high risk of more downside in the short-term, but assuming some containment and a growth rebound in the June quarter markets should rebound by then. Easier than otherwise monetary and fiscal policies - with ever more stimulus measures announced in China and more monetary and fiscal easing globally - would add to this.
The key things to watch for remain a further downtrend in the daily number of new cases globally and a peak in new cases in developed countries. In a big picture sense, the fall in share markets should be seen as just another correction after markets ran hard and fast into record highs this year from their last decent correction into August last year.
Finally, for most investors given the obvious difficulty in trying to time any of this – whether it’s a further share market fall of 5% or 20% or no further fall at all and then when to get back in - it makes sense to turn down the noise around the virus and stick to a long-term investment strategy.
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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