Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Coronavirus

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EXPERT OBSERVER
That’s a little dramatic, perhaps, but every day since has brought us closer to it being reality.
The COVID-19 crisis has the global travel industry – “the most consequential industry in the world”, says Ali – in uncharted territory. Nations are shutting their borders. Airlines face bankruptcy. Ports are refusing entry to cruise ships, threatening the very basis of the cruise business model.
Associated hospitality, arts and cultural industries are threatened. Major events are being cancelled. Tourist seasons in many tourist destinations are collapsing. Vulnerable workers on casual, seasonal or gig contracts are suffering. It seems an epic disaster.
But is it?
Considering <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/world/nasa-china-pollution-coronavirus-trnd-scn/index" target="_blank">human activities need to change</a> if we are to avoid the worst effects of human-induced climate change, the coronavirus crisis might offer us an unexpected opportunity.
Ali, like many others, wants recovery, “even if it takes a while to get back up and return to pre-coronavirus traveller numbers”.
But rather than try to return to business as usual as soon as possible, COVID-19 challenges us to think about the type of consumption that underpins the unsustainable ways of the travel and tourism industries.
<h2>Tourism dependency</h2>
Air travel features prominently in discussions about reducing carbon emissions. Even if commercial aviation accounts “only” for about 2.4% of all emissions from fossil-fuel use, flying is still how many of us in the industrialised world blow out our carbon footprints.
But sustainability concerns in the travel and tourism sectors extend far beyond carbon emissions.
In many places tourism has grown beyond its sustainable bounds, to the detriment of local communities.
The <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-might-be-at-risk-of-overtourism-99213" target="_blank">overtourism</a> of places like Venice, Barcelona and Reykjavik is one result. Cruise ships disgorge thousands of people for half-day visits that overwhelm the destination but leave little economic benefit.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266479/original/file-20190329-139352-3y65mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266479/original/file-20190329-139352-3y65mo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Graffiti in Barcelona: ‘Tourists go home. Refugees welcome.’ <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.flickr.com/photos/dullhunk/29569046192" target="_blank">Dunk/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-SA</a>
Cheap airline fares encourage weekend breaks in Europe that have inundated old cities such as Prague and Dubrovnik. The need for growth becomes self-perpetuating as tourism dependency locks communities into the system.
In a 2010 paper <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/stable/23745318?seq=1" target="_blank">I argued</a> the problem was tourism underpinned by what sociologist Leslie Sklair called the “<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0263276410374634" target="_blank">culture-ideology of consumerism</a>” – by which consumption patterns that were once the preserve of the rich became endemic.
Tourism is embedded in that culture-ideology as an essential pillar to achieve endless economic growth. For instance, <a href="https://www.tourism.australia.com/en/markets-and-stats/tourism-statistics/the-economic-importance-of-tourism" target="_blank">the Australian government</a> prioritises tourism as a “supergrowth industry”, accounting for almost 10% of “exports” in 2017-18.
<h2>Out of crisis comes creativity</h2>
Many are desperate to ensure business continues as usual. “If people will not travel,” said Ariel Cohen of California-based business travel agency <a href="https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800229,00" target="_blank">TripActions</a>, “the economy will grind to a halt.”
COVID-19 is a radical wake-up call to this way of thinking. Even if Cohen is right, that economic reality now needs to change to accommodate the more pressing public health reality.
It is a big economic hit, but crisis invites creativity. Grounded business travellers are realising virtual business meetings work satisfactorily. Conferences are reorganising for virtual sessions. Arts and cultural events and institutions are turning to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/arts/music/coronavirus-pandemic-music-streaming" target="_blank">live streaming</a> to connect with audiences.
In Italian cities under lockdown, residents have come out on their balconies to create music as a community.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DDRiINXik00?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" frameborder="0" width="440" height="260"></iframe>
Local cafes and food co-ops, including my local, are reaching out with support for the community’s marginalised and elderly to ensure they are not forgotten.
These responses challenge the atomised individualism that has gone hand in hand with the consumerism of travel and tourism. This public health crisis reminds us our well-being depends not on being consumers but on being part of a community.
Staying closer to home could be a catalyst awakening us to the value of eating locally, travelling less and just slowing down and connecting to our community.
After this crisis passes, we might find the old business as usual less compelling. We might learn that not travelling long distances didn’t stop us travelling; it just enlivened us to the richness of local travel.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133783/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651" target="_blank">Freya Higgins-Desbiolles</a>, Senior Lecturer in Tourism Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180" target="_blank">University of South Australia</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-global-travel-as-we-know-it-an-opportunity-for-sustainable-tourism-133783" target="_blank">original article</a>.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651"></a>Main image: Shutterstock
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

The end of global travel as we know it: an opportunity for sustainable tourism

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With the rise of companies encouraging employees to Work From Home (WFH) to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in the workplace, Social Garden's Director of Education, Alice Nuttall shares some insightful advice to boost the health and wellbeing of people who are planning to work remotely.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/infographic_wfh.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="938" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/infographic_wfh.png?itok=IshDXcQv" width="580"></a>

<figcaption> </figcaption></figure><h2>Here are some initiatives I have been thinking about to turn this time Working From Home (WFH) into a positive experience that enforces long-term sustainable change: </h2>

1. Plan an experimental meal using ingredients pre-existing in your fridge and pantry (this is a chance for you to be creative and avoid food waste).

2. Think of a happy memory with a friend/family member and give them a call (laugh and smile as much as you can).

3. Organise your wardrobe - get out the ironing board and listen to your favourite podcast (it's a form of meditation for me).

4. Take care of your plants and start gardening. You could even start growing your own fresh produce to complement your purchased items.

5. Challenge yourself and get fit. Set yourself a goal, and see if you can do 100 burpees by the end of the week!

6. Go for a walk and connect with other members of your community who are also out and about - a smile or a simple hello is always nice (just remember, no handshakes).

7. Limit mobile use to speaking with colleagues and clients to reduce the urge to go down the "www rabbit hole".

8. Use this time as an opportunity to up-skill. Learn and build on those skills/talents/hobbies you have always wanted to develop, but haven't had the chance to.

9. Finally, focus on staying connected (with yourself especially, take note of what your body and mind are telling you).

Have tips for making working from home productive and enjoyable? Let us know in the comments.
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COVID-19: How to adapt to working from home

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The coronavirus scare has finally affected the hitherto robust capital city auction market sentiment, but not too dramatically.
The national clearance rate has dipped to 69 percent according to the preliminary Domain data.
It is the weakest national result since the opening weekend results of 64 percent on February 1, having been in the 70s in the intervening five weeks.
This time last weekend Domain had the national figure at 75 percent, with Sydney at 80 percent and Melbourne, with its Moomba weekend distraction at 69 percent.
Today it was 73 percent in wet Sydney, down seven percent.
Melbourne sat at 68 percent, so just a small dip.
<table style="width: 605px;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5">
<thead><tr>
<th>City </th>
<th>Success rate </th>
<th>Number listed </th>
<th> Reported auctions </th>
<th>
 
sold
 
</th>
<th> </th>
<th>
($m)
</th>
<th> </th>
<th> </th>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="5">
This week
</td>
<td colspan="4">
14 March
</td>
</tr>
<tr id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_trThisWeekRow_0">
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekCity_0">Sydney</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekClearance_0">73.4%</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekListed_0">644</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekReported_0">433</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekSold_0">361</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekWithdrawn_0"> </td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekTotalSold_0">$328.5</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekHouseMedian_0"> </td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekUnitMedian_0"> </td>
</tr>
<tr id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_trThisWeekRow_1">
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekCity_1">Melbourne</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekClearance_1">68.0%</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekListed_1">1,090</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekReported_1">751</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekSold_1">532</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekWithdrawn_1"> </td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekTotalSold_1">$412.7</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekHouseMedian_1"> </td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekUnitMedian_1"> </td>
</tr>
<tr id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_trThisWeekRow_2">
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekCity_2">National</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekClearance_2">69.6%</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekListed_2">1,921</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekReported_2">1,292</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekSold_2">969</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekWithdrawn_2"> </td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekTotalSold_2">$778.2</td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekHouseMedian_2"> </td>
<td id="x_rpAuctionResultsThisWeek_tdThisWeekUnitMedian_2"> </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Source: Domain
The weekend prior, on the last Saturday in February saw Domain calculate the national figure at 78 percent, with Sydney at 82 percent and Melbourne at 77 percent.
The top reported sale was an $8 million luxury Lavender Bay apartment that the Sunday Telegraph reported sold for more than $1 million over its reserve price with four registered bidders amid the 50 attendees.
Melbourne's top sale was $3.82 million in Malvern East, with several pricier homes failing to find buyers including a no-bid $5 million Hawthorn offering. 
There has been an escalating trend towards sale before auction as sellers worry just whether the buyers will emerge on auction day in the current contagion scare.
SQM Research calculated Melbourne had 117 sold priors, 17 rescheduled and another 39 either withdrawn/sold prior/rescheduled. 
Sydney had 164 sold priors, 25 rescheduled and 53 SP, withdrawn or rescheduled.
"All search activity on realestate.com.au has slowed over the past week," said Nerida Conisbee, chief economist with the rival property listing site last last week.
The Australian Financial review described search activity as "a leading indicator of the health of the property."
The realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Consibee had said she expected the clearance rate to be lower, but added it was difficult to predict the influence of coronavirus.
As the major capital cities head into the busy pre-Easter auction period, estate agents dread that would-be vendors will sit on their hands when it comes to mid-April fresh listings.
It is commonly believed a major drop in property prices will not occur unless there was a spike in full time unemployment as the prospect of a recession looms.
Some property pundits had forecast a similar success rate for auctions as the last two weeks, given the interest rate cut was encouraging more people to buy.
The realestate.com.au data for saw a bigger drop in Sydney, down to a preliminary 74 percent.
Canberra dipped to 66 percent.
The realestate.com.au data for the prior Saturday saw 83 percent in the ACT; and 82 percent in NSW.
Yesterday was 71 percent in Victorian, down from 77 percent on the prior weekend.
Last weekend was 69 percent in SA and 53 percent in Queensland.
Today it was up in SA to 74 percent, so against the national trend, while it was down a bit in Queensland to 51 percent.
The weekend results do see contradictions as Cooley Auctions in Sydney reported 73 percent today selling 37/51 compared with 61 percent last weekend selling 33/54.
McGrath Sydney agent sold 41 properties today, but saw 20 pass in or get withdrawn.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Coronavirus fears impact on weekend auction results with dip to 69 percent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The coronavirus was confirmed as a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The WHO noted that known cases have increased 13-fold in the past two weeks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All shops in Italy except for foodstores and pharmacies have been shuttered, as the mortality rate in the country has soared to an alarmingly high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My Italian holiday is looking less likely by the week, which is annoying as I've been learning the language this year (what's the Italian for 'FFS' again?).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Angela Merkel announced that up to 58 million Germans, or 70 per cent on the population, could contract the illness. Policy response
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are serious people and serious organisations, not renowned for making wild statements, so it seems inevitable that containment measures will be taken around the world, leading to a slowdown in global growth and earnings for at least the next 3-6 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Australian government has announced a stimulus package worth A$17 billion, which is at least a start, albeit it still doesn't sound like nearly enough.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why politicians are still making comments about a 'measured Budget response' I'll never know (actually I do know, and it's dumb). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It wouldn't be at all surprising if we see a second round of stimulus ahead in the coming months, on top of a finally interest rate cut, and then potentially QE in the form of yield curve control.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's little point in going over old ground, but even at this stage the Reserve Bank sounds very reluctant to take action, at a time when the feeling around the financial markets traps is that what's really needed is a 'whatever it takes' mentality and message.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mind you, we haven't had that for the past few years, so it's unlikely to start now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Grizzly bear</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not normally in the business of writing daily markets commentary.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's largely a fool's errand, arguably not all that useful, and potentially quite annoying.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But since everyone else is doing it....US stocks whipsawed again and dropped 5 per cent last night to enter a bear market. It's been the fastest bear market of all time, with the 20 per cent drop taking just 19 days from the peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even after a 20 per cent correction, stocks are priced at remarkably expensive levels given that the US economy is teetering on a bust, with so many debt bombs lurking quietly beneath. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gd2Vl5ChIfE/Xmlb_NhDpaI/AAAAAAAA0oE/-L5IQJFBlB4V0nVPubpBVlQU6S08ObcJgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CAPE.jpg" width="640" height="478" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1075"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Source: Shiller</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No doubt investors have become accustomed to the Fed riding to the rescue, but that may not be such a wise ideas this time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Apart from picking up a few holdings in the UK oil supermajors, I'm mostly remaining in cash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Stock prices for BP on the FTSE are back at 1996 levels, even as the Bank of England delivered an emergency 50 basis points rate cut and a raft of stimulus measures to support business and markets (RBA take note), and as the value of its overseas earnings look set to increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But generally speaking, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines through this tumultuous period, especially given that the market could halve again, even from this point. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Aussies futures are pointing to another plunge at the open, and even since February 20 the moves are beginning to damage retirement accounts materially.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But again, even the likely 25 per cent drop we'll see during today's trade only takes the market back to where it was in mid-2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By no stretch of the imagination is the market 'cheap', especially given the dire outlook for earnings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The counterpoint is that at some point the coronavirus will likely pass, and given the massive global policy easing markets could eventually snap back (which is why a sensible asset allocation policy and written investment plan is so important).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Coronavirus confirmed a global pandemic: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
The COVID-19 coronavirus is spreading across the world. Initially the epicenter was China, with reported cases either in China or in travellers from China. There are now at least four further epicenters: Iran, Italy, Japan and South Korea.
Although the World Health Organisation believes the number of cases in China has peaked and should fall, case reports are climbing from countries previously thought to be resilient due to stronger medical standards and practices.
In a strongly connected and integrated world, the impacts of the disease will go beyond mortality (deaths) and morbidity (people incapacitated or caring for the incapacitated and unable to work).
Companies across the world, irrespective of size, depend on inputs from China – much more so than during the 2002-04 China-centred Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) pandemic.
In 2003 China accounted for less than one twentieth of world trade. It now accounts for one seventh, making it the world’s biggest importer and an integral part of most global production chains.
Just as important to the world economy, panic is distorting spending. Global stock markets have plunged.
<h2>Fear is as important as trade</h2>
Entire cities in China have closed and travel restrictions have been placed on people entering from infected countries.
The fear of an unknown deadly virus is similar in its psychological effects to the reaction to terrorism threats and produces a high level of stress, often with longer-term consequences.
A large number of people feel at-risk at the onset of a pandemic, even if their actual risk of dying is low.
The International Monetary Fund expects COVID-19 to knock 0.4 points off China’s economic growth target of 5.6% and 0.1 points off global growth, an assessment it will continue to update.
On Monday the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development sliced 0.8 points off its forecast for China’s growth and <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/7969896b-en.pdf?expires=1583190648&amp;id=id&amp;accname=ocid194681&amp;checksum=0394E7E583C8F97E4F5F8D9B7B14AE8E" target="_blank">0.5 points</a> off its forecast for Australian growth.
As part of a large research project in the Centre for Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) at the Australian National University, we have applied experience gained from evaluating the impact of SARS for the World Health Organisation in <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/pubfiles/WP_5_03_Globalization_and_disease_FINAL_1.pdf" target="_blank">2003</a> and <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2006/262006.pdf" target="_blank">2006</a> to <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/cama-working-paper-series/16221/global-macroeconomic-impacts-covid-19-seven-scenarios" target="_blank">seven scenarios</a> for COVID-19:
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317991/original/file-20200302-18287-19xav3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317991/original/file-20200302-18287-19xav3t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The scenarios vary the attack rate (the proportion of the total population contracting the virus), the mortality rate (the proportion of total population who dies), whether epidemic is a one-off (essentially temporary) or recurrs each year (essentially permanent), and whether it spreads globally or is largely confined to China.
<h2>Australian faces a significant hit to GDP</h2>
We find that in the four scenarios where the epidemic goes global, Australia’s GDP which in the 12 months to December grew just 1.7%, would suffer a hit in the first year of between 2% and 7.9%, most likely sending GDP backwards (a recession).
In all countries the sharp hit to growth would be followed by a gradual recovery.
The results are very sensitive to the assumptions used, including government responses in each country.
In the short term, central banks and treasuries will need to make sure disrupted economies continue to function.
<hr>
Australia: percentage change in real GDP
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318203/original/file-20200303-18308-16ajz12.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318203/original/file-20200303-18308-16ajz12.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Percentage deviation from business as usual. <a class="source" href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/cama-working-paper-series/16221/global-macroeconomic-impacts-covid-19-seven-scenarios" target="_blank">Source: McKibbin and Fernando, March 2020</a>
<hr>
While cutting interest rates is an option, the shock will require a mix of monetary, fiscal and health policy responses. Quarantining affected people and reducing large scale social interaction would be an effective response.
Wide dissemination of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/simple-steps-to-reduce-the-odds-of-a-global-catastrophe/" target="_blank">good hygiene practices</a> can be a low cost and highly effective response that can also reduce the extent of contagion and keep down the social and economic cost.
The longer-term responses are even more important.
Many governments have been reluctant to invest sufficiently in their health care systems, especially in public systems in less developed countries where many infectious diseases are likely to originate.
<h2>Investments in overseas public health matter</h2>
The idea that any country can be an island in an integrated global economy is being proved wrong.
Poverty kills people. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 shows that diseases, potentially generated in poor countries due to overcrowding, poor public health and interaction with wild animals, can kill people of any socioeconomic group in any country.
There needs to be vastly more investment in public health and development in the richest but also, and especially, in the poorest countries.
Our study suggests big economic costs in countries such as Australia can be avoided through global cooperative investment in public health in all countries.
We have known this for decades, yet politicians continue to ignore the scientific and economic evidence about the role of global public health in improving the quality of life and driving economic growth for us all.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132759/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/warwick-mckibbin-9129" target="_blank">Warwick McKibbin</a>, Chair in Public Policy, ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roshen-fernando-982432" target="_blank">Roshen Fernando</a>, PhD Student in Economic Policy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-first-economic-modelling-of-coronavirus-scenarios-is-grim-for-australia-the-world-132759" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main Photo by <a class="owner-name truncate" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeena/" target="_blank" title="Go to Jeena Paradies's photostream" data-track="attributionNameClick">Jeena Paradies</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The first economic modelling of coronavirus scenarios is grim for Australia, the world

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I have been asked by a number of our industry members if REIA intends to make a statement or provide direction in regards to Corona Virus.
I don't intend to make any comment about what precautions you, your employees and your families should take. The best advice to follow is that being provided by local, state and federal health authorities. Obviously, care should be taken in the workplace which also extends to open homes, auctions, corporate travel and the like.
Representing the real estate industry, I attended a large gathering of business and government people in Sydney last night. Rest assured the necessary precautions were being taken. Corona Virus was obviously the main topic of conversation and it was abundantly clear the situation is yet to truly unfold in Australia.
With this in mind, we should be aware of what impact the virus will have on our property markets across the country. It is more likely our markets will be affected by reduced consumer sentiment than the actual virus itself. I am already hearing of many stories whereby potential vendors are deciding not to sell at this time, preferring to wait until things normalise.
Whilst such a notion is completely understandable, it doesn't make sense as we all know it is better to sell in a market with less competition and I have no doubt that our buyers will continue to purchase regardless of how the seller may be feeling. I suspect any reduced consumer sentiment is likely to be magnified in the larger cities than in regional parts of Australia, just as the nonsensical rush to buy toilet paper has been.
I have no doubt that once this situation is managed and under control our markets will return to normality just as they did after the bushfires earlier in the year.
If REIA receives any messages from government to be disseminated to the property industry we will do so. Aside from that, let's continue to follow the advice of the health experts and keep ourselves, friends and families safe.
ADRIAN KELLY is the REIA President
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Coronavirus may exacerbate current sellers market: REIA's Adrian Kelly

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Working from home is already so common it has its own acronym, and it’s about to get even more common still. Companies <a href="https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/amazon-microsoft-apple-google-twitter-work-from-home-stanford-study" target="_blank">like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft</a> are now advising employees to “WFH” to avoid exposure to the novel coronavirus.
But working from home can be a real challenge for employees who find themselves doing it for the first time. To address this concern, many employees are turning to digital solutions to help them interact with colleagues and stay productive away from the office.
Here are some tech options for three styles of work: formal meetings, informal discussions, and team projects. But none of them, as we shall see, is without drawbacks. 
Formal meetings
The first question on most people’s minds is how to conduct meetings with colleagues or clients. One of the most common answers is <a href="https://zoom.us">Zoom</a>, a video communication platform that combines conferencing, online meetings, chat and mobile collaboration.
Zoom is widely used as an online substitute for formal meetings, and last week its <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-alert%3A-zoom-video-communications-rises-12-2020-03-05">share price surged by 12%</a> in anticipation that cornavirus quarantines will see it adopted even more widely. Among the platform’s selling-points are its ease of use, and ability to stream presentations as well as host meetings.
But while digital solutions like Zoom offer useful way for colleagues to meet, they are arguably less satisfactory for interacting with customers. Research <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/brand-connect/hilton/the-science-of-being-there/">suggests</a> that online meetings fail to deliver the same feelings of connection and empathy, compared with a face-to-face meeting.
Informal discussions
While video conferencing is useful for formal meetings, it is less appropriate for informal chats, brief queries or rapid status updates, such as “have you sent that invoice yet?”. This task is more suited to instant messaging platforms or group chat apps.
A common tactic is to use Facebook messenger, WhatsApp or gchat. But these can be distracting and intrusive, particularly at high volumes, causing workers to lose focus and concentration.
Many companies have instead adopted <a href="https://slack.com/intl/en-au/">Slack</a> and <a href="https://products.office.com/en-au/microsoft-teams/group-chat-software">Microsoft Teams</a>, which offer instant communication without the distraction of social media. IBM has reportedly adopted Slack for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ibm-slack-partnership-customer-digital-transformation-2020-2?r=AU&amp;IR=T">all of its 350,000 employees</a>. And Slack has reportedly <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-06-20-intl-hnk/h_c28cf284cc1589e8947c08c270570731">asked its own employees</a> to work from home in response to the coronavirus outbreak, prompting wisecracks on social media about how they will stay in touch with one another.
But while these channels are great for zapping quick messages between team members, it can be hard to build real rapport. Research shows that being <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/09/how-to-build-the-social-ties-you-need-at-work">authentic, realistic and making time</a> with colleagues is a more natural way to build effective work relationships, and this is hard to do purely online.
Team projects
So much for meetings and chats – what about actual project management? Two options already in widespread use are <a href="https://www.google.com/drive/">Google Drive</a> and <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/about/en-au/">Microsoft One Drive</a>, which allow people to upload documents to the cloud and collaborate on them in real time.
These two platforms have already become the industry standard for sharing documents. But (and you may be sensing a theme here), sometimes team discussions require face-to-face conversations or brainstorms, which can <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/04/collaborating-online-is-sometimes-better-than-face-to-face">challenging to replicate in a purely online environment</a>.
There’s no doubt that the coronavirus has struck at a time when we have more digital options than ever before, giving a wider range of employees the opportunity to work from home with minimal disruption.
But it’s also undeniable that people still need face-to-face interactions for companies to function at their best. The likes of Zoom, Slack and Google Drive will likely see an uptick in use during the epidemic, but once it’s over they should be considered complementary solutions rather than substitutions.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133350/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/geoffrey-mann-713012">Geoffrey Mann</a>, Sessional Lecturer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/working-at-home-to-avoid-coronavirus-this-tech-lets-you-almost-replicate-the-office-133350">original article</a>.
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Working at home to avoid coronavirus, almost replicating the office

wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

The coronavirus's economic toll in numbers: Guy Debelle

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVERS
The COVID-19 coronavirus is spreading across the world - Initially the epicentre was China, however there are now at least four further epicenters: Iran, Italy, Japan and South Korea.
Although the World Health Organisation believes the number of cases in China has peaked and should fall, case reports are climbing from countries previously thought to be resilient due to stronger medical standards and practices.
In a strongly connected and integrated world, the impacts of the disease will go beyond mortality (deaths) and morbidity (people incapacitated or caring for the incapacitated and unable to work).
Companies across the world, irrespective of size, depend on inputs from China – much more so than during the 2002-04 China-centred Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) pandemic.
In 2003 China accounted for less than one twentieth of world trade. It now accounts for one seventh, making it the world’s biggest importer and an integral part of most global production chains.
Just as important to the world economy, panic is distorting spending. Global stock markets have plunged.
Entire cities in China have closed and travel restrictions have been placed on people entering from infected countries.
The fear of an unknown deadly virus is similar in its psychological effects to the reaction to terrorism threats and produces a high level of stress, often with longer-term consequences.
A large number of people feel at-risk at the onset of a pandemic, even if their actual risk of dying is low.
The International Monetary Fund expects COVID-19 to knock 0.4 points off China’s economic growth target of 5.6% and 0.1 points off global growth, an assessment it will continue to update.
On Monday the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development sliced 0.8 points off its forecast for China’s growth and 0.5 points off its forecast for Australian growth.
As part of a large research project in the Centre for Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) at the Australian National University, we have applied experience gained from evaluating the impact of SARS for the World Health Organisation in 2003 and 2006 to seven scenarios for COVID-19:
The scenarios vary the attack rate (the proportion of the total population contracting the virus), the mortality rate (the proportion of total population who dies), whether epidemic is a one-off (essentially temporary) or recurrs each year (essentially permanent), and whether it spreads globally or is largely confined to China.
We find that in the four scenarios where the epidemic goes global, Australia’s GDP which in the 12 months to December grew just 1.7%, would suffer a hit in the first year of between 2% and 7.9%, most likely sending GDP backwards (a recession).
In all countries the sharp hit to growth would be followed by a gradual recovery.
The results are very sensitive to the assumptions used, including government responses in each country.
In the short term, central banks and treasuries will need to make sure disrupted economies continue to function.
While cutting interest rates is an option, the shock will require a mix of monetary, fiscal and health policy responses. Quarantining affected people and reducing large scale social interaction would be an effective response.
Wide dissemination of good hygiene practices can be a low cost and highly effective response that can also reduce the extent of contagion and keep down the social and economic cost.
The longer-term responses are even more important.
Many governments have been reluctant to invest sufficiently in their health care systems, especially in public systems in less developed countries where many infectious diseases are likely to originate.
The idea that any country can be an island in an integrated global economy is being proved wrong.
Poverty kills people. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 shows that diseases, potentially generated in poor countries due to overcrowding, poor public health and interaction with wild animals, can kill people of any socioeconomic group in any country.
There needs to be vastly more investment in public health and development in the richest but also, and especially, in the poorest countries.
Our study suggests big economic costs in countries such as Australia can be avoided through global cooperative investment in public health in all countries.
We have known this for decades, yet politicians continue to ignore the scientific and economic evidence about the role of global public health in improving the quality of life and driving economic growth for us all.
 
Warwick McKibbin is a Chair in Public Policy in the ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University (ANU).
Roshen Fernando is a PhD Student in Economic Policy, at the Australian National University.
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Economic modelling of Coronavirus fallout paints grim picture for Australia; Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Panic buying knows no borders.
Shoppers in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and the United States have caught toilet paper fever on the back of the COVID-19 coronavirus. Shop shelves are being emptied as quickly as they can be stocked.
This panic buying is the result of the fear of missing out. It’s a phenomenon of consumer behaviour similar to what happens when there is a run on banks.
A bank run occurs when depositors of a bank withdraw cash because they believe it might collapse. What we’re seeing now is a toilet-paper run.
Coordination games
A bank holds only a fraction of its deposits as cash reserves. This practice is known as “fractional-reserve banking”. It lends out as much of its deposits as it can – subject to a banking regulator’s <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2010/sep/6" target="_blank">capital-adequacy requirements</a> – making a profit from the interest it charges.
If every customer simultaneously decided to withdraw all of their deposits, the bank would crumble under the liability.
Why, then, do we not normally observe bank runs? Or toilet paper runs?
The answer comes from Nobel-winning economist John Nash (played by Russell Crowe in the 2001 movie <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0268978/" target="_blank">A Beautiful Mind</a>). Nash shared <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1994/press-release/" target="_blank">the Nobel prize in economics</a> for his insights in game theory, notably the existence of what is now called a “<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/3999" target="_blank">Nash equilibrium</a>” in “games”.
Both banking and the toilet-paper market can be thought of as a “coordination game”. There are two players – you and everyone else. There are two strategies – panic buy or act normally. Each strategy has an associated pay-off.
If everyone acts normally, we have an equilibrium: there will be toilet paper on the shop shelves, and people can relax and buy it as they need it.
But if others panic buy, the optimal strategy for you is to do the same, otherwise you’ll be left without toilet paper. Everyone is facing the same strategies and pay-offs, so others will panic buy if you do.
The result is another equilibrium – this one being where everyone panic buys.
Preventing coordination failure
So either no one panic buys (a successful coordination) or everyone does (a coordination failure).
The fear of everyone else panic buying has made some people panic buy as well. But those who are panic buying are not acting irrationally. They’re not stupid! They are executing an optimal strategy because the fear has a basis in reality: many people have experienced going to supermarkets and finding empty shelves.
Obviously, though, only one of these equilibria is desirable. So what can we do to prevent coordination failure?
One solution is a market mechanism – allowing the price of toilet paper to increase to reduce demand. This is unlikely to happen, though, given the potential backlash associated with “price gouging”.
There are two other solutions.
The first is for the government to step in as guarantor.
In 2008, for example, the market crash engendered by the subprime mortgage crisis left multiple Australian banks vulnerable to depositor runs. In response, the Australian government announced a <a href="https://www.guaranteescheme.gov.au/" target="_blank">guarantee scheme</a> for deposits. Depositors, assured the government would cover their losses even if their bank collapsed, no longer had the fear of being caught out by not withdrawing their savings.
In the case of toilet paper, the government acting as guarantor might involve holding a strategic stockpile of toilet paper. But all things considered – from logistics to costs – this probably isn’t a very good idea.
The second solution is to ration the commodity – putting limits on the amount a customer can buy. Imperfect though these buying limits are, they are feasible, as shown by the restrictions put in place by <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/coles-joins-woolworths-in-rationing-toilet-paper-20200305-p5471r" target="_blank">Australia’s supermarkets</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133065/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alfredo-r-paloyo-438086" target="_blank">Alfredo R. Paloyo</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong-711" target="_blank">University of Wollongong</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-toilet-paper-run-is-like-a-bank-run-the-economic-fixes-are-about-the-same-133065" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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