Apartment buildings are increasingly being designed around how people actually live day to day, not just how they want a building to look.

For buyers, that shift is showing up in practical inclusions that respond to changing habits. Work-from-home spaces, EV charging, wellness amenities, secure bike storage and parcel management are becoming part of the broader apartment conversation, reflecting a move toward buildings that reduce friction in everyday life.

Online shopping has become one of the clearest examples of that change.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion online in 2025, with nearly one in four retail dollars now spent online. That has made parcel delivery a regular part of apartment living, rather than an occasional inconvenience.

For apartment residents, however, the delivery process can be less straightforward than it is for detached homes. Parcels may be left in lobbies, redirected to Post Offices, missed entirely, or placed under the responsibility of building managers and concierge teams.

That is why secure parcel infrastructure is increasingly being considered alongside more familiar apartment amenities.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-VjjLwoViX0?si=A3k7ws9NX35Uac7_" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Australia Post Parcel Lockers offer one way to address the issue. When a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS, then collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN. The parcel is kept secure, accessible and removed from common areas.

The broader Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations across Australia, positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and other accessible locations.

For new apartment projects, the relevance is clear. A building’s amenity offering is no longer only about lifestyle spaces, but also about convenience, security and functionality.

As buyer expectations evolve, secure parcel delivery is becoming part of the same design conversation as flexible working, sustainable transport and resident wellbeing.

It is one less thing for residents to worry about, and another example of apartment design adapting to the way Australians now live.

Joel Robinson

Apartment design is adapting to the way Australians shop

While school holidays and trips to Europe tend to define the winter property market, there's been no cold snap at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> in North Sydney.

Developer-builder&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a> sold more than $35 million worth of apartments throughout June, including a $6.8 million apartment that now ranks among the highest apartment sales ever recorded in North Sydney.

SRM Residential agent Ben Stewart said buyer demand throughout June reflected a mix of improving market confidence and longer-term thinking from owner-occupiers.

"We're seeing strong demand from owner-occupiers who are taking a longer-term view," Stewart said.

"Many recognise the opportunity to secure an apartment in an iconic building and premium location while values remain attractive. They may initially lease the property, but the intention is to eventually move in themselves, rather than purchasing purely as an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=367129]

Located at 177 Walker Street, The Walden will deliver 161 one, two, three and four-bedroom residences across a 30-storey tower designed by Rothelowman. Every apartment occupies a corner position, maximising natural light, cross ventilation and views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, Sydney Heads and the northern districts.

Rather than a traditional balcony, the residences feature winter gardens that seamlessly extend the open plan living areas, creating versatile spaces for relaxing or entertaining throughout the year. Floor-to-ceiling glazing draws in natural light while showcasing sweeping views from the building's elevated Walker Street position.

Every apartment features high-end Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, and fully integrated appliances.

The larger residences have been planned with distinct entertaining and private zones, with many master suites positioned on corners to capture natural light and harbour views. Walk-in dressing rooms, freestanding baths and refined stone finishes reinforce the house-like feel that has resonated with downsizers and owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6393]

Rothelowman Principal Ben Pomroy said the project was designed to make the most of its unique position overlooking the harbour.

"The Walden is a celebration of all things beautiful, curated for those who expect nothing less than exceptional," Pomroy says.

"Meticulously designed entertaining spaces and light-filled living areas that capitalise on capturing the natural beauty of Sydney's iconic harbour."

Residents will also have exclusive access to The Pavilion, a dedicated amenity building featuring a rooftop pool, wellness studio, gymnasium, sauna, concierge service, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and work-from-home facilities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6402]

The project marks ALAND's first major luxury apartment development in Sydney's inner-city market after more than two decades delivering residential communities across Greater Sydney.

Founder and CEO Andrew Hrsto previously said the rarity of the Walker Street site made it an opportunity the company could not overlook.

"This is a rare opportunity to bring a truly exceptional project to life in one of Sydney's most iconic locations, and to showcase our craftsmanship and design expertise at a world-class level," Hrsto said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6383]

The Walden has been introduced to the market at a time when demand for living in North Sydney is at an all-time high. Billions of dollars have been invested in infrastructure, including the recently opened Victoria Cross Metro station, located just 300 metres from The Walden, providing residents with direct access to the Sydney CBD in just minutes.

Private investment has also transformed the area through the arrival of new retail and dining destinations, elevating the lifestyle offering in what was once considered primarily a commercial precinct rather than an aspirational residential address.

The Walden is currently under construction and is scheduled for completion in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

ALAND records $35 million in sales in North Sydney as The Walden bucks quiet winter selling season

The long-awaited redevelopment of the former Eastlakes Shopping Centre site has reached a major milestone, with Conquest's plans for a new mixed-use precinct officially placed on public exhibition.

The State Significant Development Application would transform the 1.7-hectare site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/19a-evans-avenue-eastlakes-nsw-2018">19A Evans Avenue</a> into one of Sydney's largest urban renewal projects, delivering 736 apartments above a new shopping centre anchored by Woolworths, alongside specialty retail, dining, commercial space and new public open spaces.

The public exhibition marks the next chapter for the project after <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/conquest">Conquest</a> acquired the stalled Stage Two development from Crown Group, who completed the first stage across the road prior to their voluntary liquidation.

<img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5fca22c5-d1ed-4e2c-8801-03f7df1eafc8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland%20podium.png?VersionId=uomwr41nF8CmLUZRDcu3mHQechlbxucS" />

&nbsp;

Designed by DKO Architecture, the proposal comprises four residential buildings ranging from 14 to 18 storeys above a two-level retail podium. The development would deliver 736 apartments, including 74 affordable homes, 215 Build-to-Rent apartments and 521 market residences. Provision has also been made for dual-key apartments, which could increase the total number of dwellings to 877.

At ground level, the shopping centre has been designed as the suburb's new meeting place, anchored by a full-line Woolworths and complemented by a curated mix of fresh food retailers, cafés, restaurants, health services and everyday convenience shopping. Generous pedestrian links and landscaped public spaces will connect the retail precinct through to Jack Mundey Reserve, creating a more walkable and connected neighbourhood.

Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.

"Eastlakes has been overlooked for too long, and this is the community’s moment. We are building a shopping centre and homes, a genuine heart for the suburb, and we genuinely want locals to help shape it."

"We enrich communities through the creation of homes, places, and experiences designed for life, built to last, and owner for generations. That starts with listening, so we warmly encourage everyone with a connection to Eastlakes to view the plans and share their thoughts."

<img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="22f6fb20-54fb-4bd7-8a92-48fafdd00608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland.png?VersionId=cugp7s9hrMHGJJdYzkeAkrFoQgnF4GXf" />

DKO said the design had been shaped by the site's landscape setting and surrounding open space.

"Our vision for the site embraces its unique Bidjigal identity by blending the residential living with generous landscaping and a material palette inspired by the Bidjigal locality, and celebrating the panoramic views to Botany Bay and the wetlands reserves."

"Taking cues from Country, we seek to harmonise built form with the landscape and lightly touch the earth. By reconnecting, retaining and regenerating existing ecology, and weaving in natural elements, we can deepen our connection to Country."

The landscape strategy extends across the podium and rooftops, incorporating communal gardens, children's play areas, lawns, community gardens, family gathering spaces and extensive tree planting. New landscaped links will also strengthen the connection between the precinct and Jack Mundey Reserve, while publicly accessible open spaces have been integrated throughout the development.

The proposal builds on Conquest's broader placemaking strategy for the site. Through an ongoing partnership, local artist Joe Rashbrook has been appointed Urban Art Curator, working alongside young residents to transform the project's site hoardings into a public art gallery that allows the community to engage with the redevelopment before construction is complete.

Conquest has rapidly expanded its development pipeline since acquiring the Eastlakes site, with more than $6 billion worth of mixed-use projects now in planning across Sydney, including Stanmore, Castlecrag and Waterloo.

Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.

First look: ‘Far more than replacing a shopping centre’ as Conquest unveils 736-home Eastlakes redevelopment

Abadeen has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for one of Mosman's largest apartment developments in recent years, seeking approval to transform the former Honeysuckle Garden and Midas site on Military Road into a 100-apartment mixed-use development.

The SSDA, lodged with investment partner Phoenix Property Investors, proposes around $230 million worth of new housing on the prominent <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/494-516-military-road-mosman-nsw-2088">494-516 Military Road</a> site.

The proposal comes as Mosman Council continues to progress its recently endorsed Masterplan, which identifies the precinct for increased housing density while maintaining the suburb's established character.

Designed by DKO Architecture, the development would comprise 100 apartments above ground-floor retail, with a rooftop wellness precinct including a gym, sauna, entertaining areas and landscaped communal spaces.

Rather than pushing to the full 12-storey height identified in Council's Masterplan, the proposal ranges between five and nine storeys, stepping down towards Hale Road. A tenth level would accommodate resident amenities rather than additional apartments.

The project has been designed to appeal to a broad range of buyers, from first home buyers and young professionals through to families and local downsizers looking to remain on the Lower North Shore.

<img alt="Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5dada03f-5b4c-43ba-ba62-2868add31440" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-27%20at%209.57.55%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7LBy0B.Jo8_iWAFJsClcV7Q3UnXrv49r" />

Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown said the apartments had been designed as genuine long-term homes rather than investor-focused stock.

"The apartments have been designed as genuine long-term homes, with efficient floorplans that maximise usable living areas, generous storage, natural light and strong connections between indoor and outdoor spaces," Brown says."

"We've focused on creating homes for a broad range of buyers, from first home buyers and growing families through to downsizers who want to remain in Mosman."

The rooftop wellness offering forms a key part of the proposal, with residents set to have access to a gym, sauna, outdoor entertaining spaces, communal dining areas, landscaped gardens and a multi-use recreation court overlooking Sydney Harbour.

<img alt="Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d37c2d6b-583a-4a0f-b7a9-9f46b893d2f4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-27%20at%209.58.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=FPoa5FCm2RtzjhAh2w5FTWJbV6GHfY8D" />

DKO drew heavily on the site's natural and cultural history, undertaking a Connecting with Country process with local Aboriginal Elders to inform the architectural and landscape design.

Senior Associate Matthew Ritchard said the design sought to create a building that responded to both the site's landscape and its cultural significance.

"The architectural language of the project is a deep expression of Connecting with Country, where the materiality and colour palette serve as a bridge between the site's geological history and its future as a residential sanctuary."

The proposal also retains the site's established blue gum tree as the centrepiece of the communal landscaped gardens, while introducing activated retail fronting Military Road to strengthen the connection between Mosman and Cremorne villages.

If approved, the project would deliver 100 new homes within walking distance of shops, public transport, schools and local amenities, adding to the limited pipeline of new apartments on the Lower North Shore.

<h2>Project Snapshot</h2>

Project: Honeysuckle Garden Redevelopment

Address: 494-516 Military Road, Mosman

Developer: Abadeen and Phoenix Property Investors

Architect: DKO Architecture

Lead Architect: Matthew Ritchard

Value: $230 million

Residences: 100 apartments

Key features:

<ul>
	<li>
	Ground-floor retail
	</li>
	<li>
	Rooftop wellness precinct
	</li>
	<li>
	Gym and sauna
	</li>
	<li>
	Outdoor entertaining and BBQ areas
	</li>
	<li>
	Landscaped communal gardens
	</li>
	<li>
	Multi-use recreation court
	</li>
	<li>
	Retained mature blue gum tree
	</li>
	<li>
	Connecting with Country design process
	</li>
	<li>
	Harbour, CBD and Balmoral views from upper-level apartments
	</li>
</ul>

Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown said the apartments had been designed as genuine long-term homes rather than investor-focused stock

First look: Abadeen plans 100 apartments on former Honeysuckle Garden site in Mosman

The wave of apartment proposals sweeping through Mosman shows no signs of slowing, with another major residential development lodged through the NSW Government's State Significant Development pathway.

Developer First Quadrant Properties, which recently completed Willoughby Grounds and has several projects in planning across the North Shore, has unveiled plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cove-on-ourimbah-40-56-ourimbah-road-mosman-nsw-2088">Cove on Ourimbah</a>, a 63-apartment development on Ourimbah Road, adding to the growing pipeline of projects reshaping one of Sydney's most tightly held harbour suburbs.

The proposal would consolidate nine properties at 40-56 Ourimbah Road into a part eight, part nine-storey apartment building, continuing the momentum created by the NSW Government's accelerated planning pathways that have seen several significant developments emerge across Mosman over the past 12 months.

Designed by Doroch Architects, the project would deliver 63 apartments, resident wellness facilities including a gym, pool and sauna, landscaped communal spaces and basement parking, while using recessed upper levels, generous setbacks and extensive planting to reduce the perceived scale of the building.

<img alt="First look: First Quadrant Properties eyes nine-storey Mosman apartment project under State Significant pathway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32ee68e4-141e-4a10-8f83-48e961a5e71e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Ourimbah%20Road%2C%20Mosman%20a.png?VersionId=CUeILFc6APlwXPc.iplElbxHvREKwjig" />

Doroch Architects said the building had been designed to reinforce Mosman's established character.

"The building's aesthetic is grounded in the existing residential character of Ourimbah Road and the broader Mosman context," the architect noted in the planning documents submitted to the NSW Government.

The design adopts a contemporary material palette of natural stone, textured concrete and brown concave metal cladding, complemented by integrated planters and deep balconies. The podium incorporates softened curved concrete forms, while increased setbacks have been provided adjacent to the heritage-listed property at 60 Ourimbah Road to create a more sympathetic transition.

The site sits around 330 metres from Mosman Town Centre, placing it within the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy area, where increased residential density is being encouraged close to shops, transport and services.

The proposal follows a string of major apartment projects lodged or declared State Significant in Mosman in recent months, including Abadeen's 100-apartment Honeysuckle Garden redevelopment on Military Road and several other developments across Awaba Street, Redan Street and Muston Street from the likes of Time &amp; Place, HELM and Prosker Property.

&nbsp;

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Time &amp; Place to take on Mosman apartment market</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-abadeen-plans-100-apartments-on-former-honeysuckle-garden-site-in-mosman">First look: Abadeen plans 100 apartments on former Honeysuckle Garden site in Mosman</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Another major apartment proposal signals Mosman's development boom

cash rate

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The RBA has released its February chart pack which contributed to their decision to leave cash rates on hold again at 1.5 percent.
The full pack can be <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2018-02-08-08-16-04" target="_blank">found here.</a> 
Household debt is still outstripping household prices.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/2/8/prices%20and%20debt.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/8/prices%20and%20debt.jpg" alt="">
 
The CPI was lower than anticipated when the ABS released its inflation data last week.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/2/8/CPI.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/8/CPI.jpg" alt="">
The gap between disposable income and household consumption isn't getting any closer.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/2/8/consumption.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/2/8/consumption.jpg" alt="">
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Three charts that guided the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged

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The RBA considered these four charts to help in its determination of keeping the cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent earlier this week.
Household debt is at its peak, while interest being paid on households has begun a sharp decline.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/8/debt1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
 
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/debt1.jpg" alt="" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
 
Housing loan approvals are also near their peak, with the gap between owner occupiers and investors widening.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/8/approvals1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/approvals1.jpg" alt="">
Household net wealth is peaking, which will have made the RBA contemplate a rate raise.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/8/wealth2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
 
 
 
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/wealth2.jpg" alt="">
 
Housing prices are set to end the year in a downturn.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/12/8/prices1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/prices1.jpg" alt="">
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Four housing charts that helped the RBA decide to hold rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
Slowly and calmly the RBA appears to be setting the scene for the possibility of cash rate rises.
There is clearly no urgency, but the central bank will want to keep its options open. Keep in mind, unlike many other central banks, the RBA does not give explicit forward guidance (that is, it does not indicate cash rate movements ahead of time). Instead, the commentary will just gradually shift to greater optimism about growth and inflation before the first hike is delivered.
Two speeches by RBA officials this month both suggested a mild shift in tone. Assistant Governor, Luci Ellis, gave a speech making it clear that global growth is picking up and that the recovery was expected to persist.
A day later, Governor Phil Lowe, gave a speech entitled, ‘The Next Chapter’, in which he explained that the mining cycle, which has dominated the local growth story in recent years, is almost done. Although Dr. Lowe was cautious, he was generally positive about the outlook, with Australia set to benefit from rising Asian middle class incomes.
At the same time, the timely local growth indicators remain strong. Surveyed business conditions are around decade highs and job creation has accelerated to its fastest pace since 2000 over the past six months. The fast pace of job creation is expected to continue, given the marked improvement in job advertisements, job vacancies, and surveyed employment intentions.
Exports are also set to be strong in H2, partly reflecting a bounce-back in coal shipments after weather-related disruptions in H1. In addition, infrastructure investment is ramping up. We are sticking by our call that GDP growth will pick-up to 3.3% y-o-y by the Q3 print, which is due in early December.
The challenge remains as to whether this lift in growth and employment will deliver a pick-up in wages growth and inflation. The next CPI print, which is due to be published on 25 October, will be the next key number on this front. We expect the RBA to be firmly on hold next week as it awaits the next inflation print.
On fixed income strategy, the risk that the RBA hikes sooner argues for elevated money market risk premium but curves should flatten, especially beyond 10 years. 
Rising activity and strong jobs growth 
Growth is picking up pace, driven by a collection of factors. First, the sharp decline in mining investment is coming to its end: less drag from this source is net positive for growth. Second, growth in services exports remains solid, LNG exports are ramping up, as new capacity comes on-line and coal exports are bouncing back after weather-related disruptions in H1.
Third, infrastructure investment is ramping up, led by urban road and rail projects, mainly in the south- eastern states. Finally, corporate profitability has improved, partly due to higher commodity prices, which is supporting a lift in surveyed business investment intentions.
The pick-up in growth is being reflected in strong surveyed business conditions, which have been around decade-highs in recent months (Chart 1). The lift in growth is also driving a strong pick-up in hiring, with job creation running at its fastest pace in 17 years over the past six months. Most of the jobs that have been created have also been full-time positions (Chart 2).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.03.44%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.03.44%20AM.png" alt="">
The timely indicators, such as job advertisements and employment intentions, suggest jobs growth should continue in the coming months.
Wages growth is subdued, but for how long?
The challenge has been that, as yet, the improvement in the labour market has not driven a rise in wages growth (Chart 3). However, the wage price index has started to stabilise. Part of the explanation for weak wages growth may be factors that are also affecting other economies, such as: the changing nature of work due to technology; the continued effect of globalisation and offshoring; increased casualization of the workforce, and decreased unionisation (for more on these factors see Global Economics Quarterly: The Wage Conundrum, 22 June 2017). Much like in other countries, Australia’s Phillips curve – which suggests an inverse relationship between wages and unemployment – appears to have flattened (Chart 4).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.04.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.04.52%20AM.png" alt="">
However, in Australia’s case there may also be some idiosyncratic factors at play. In particular, the large fall in commodity prices from 2011 to 2016 weighed on national incomes, which, in turn, flowed through to weak growth in unit labour costs (Chart 5). If this explains even some part of the slowdown in wages growth then the recent lift in commodity prices and boost to mining sector profitability should flow through to some lift in wages growth. The rise in profitability has also moved beyond the mining industry, which should also imply a pick-up in wages growth over time (see Downunder Digest; Show me the money, 20 April 2017).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.08.07%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.08.07%20AM.png" alt="">
Next focus will be on the quarterly CPI print, as always
As is often the case, the October board meeting is expected to be rather dull, as it is only three weeks until we receive the all-important quarterly CPI print. The RBA is likely to flag that it is awaiting more information of prices to help firm up its view on how the economy is travelling.
The key will be the underlying measures of inflation – the trimmed mean and weighted median. These have already been showing a modest lift from the very low levels reached in mid-2016, when the RBA was forced to cut the cash rate to its current record low (Charts 7 and 8). Even a repeat of a modest print for the trimmed mean, of 0.5% q-o-q, would see underlying inflation back in the RBA’s 2-3% target band on a y-o-y basis. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.09.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.09.31%20AM.png" alt="">
RBA speeches and commentary 
As we reported last month, Governor Phil Lowe explicitly stated at a parliamentary testimony in August that it would be reasonable to assume that the ‘next rate move will be up rather than down’. This month brought another mild shift in tone from the RBA. Assistant Governor Luci Ellis gave a speech making it clear that the RBA expects the current recovery in global growth to continue. Governor Lowe then gave a speech suggest that Australia’s growth story is moving on to its ‘next chapter’, most of which was upbeat about Australia’s growth prospects while still acknowledging risks, such as Australia’s high household debt levels.
Governor Lowe has also been cautious about giving any indications on timing of any cash rate rise. He has noted repeatedly that it will be ‘some time’ before rates rise. We see this as typical RBA style. The RBA does not give explicit forward guidance. Instead it shifts the tone of its discussion about the outlook for growth and inflation and leaves it to the market to determine what it might mean for the cash rate setting.
Fixed income strategy: Earlier hikes equal flatter curves
We hold on to our flattening bias. Recent upbeat communication from the RBA implies a bold reaction function. As a result, and assuming the data holds up as our economists expect, investors should consider February and May meetings as ‘live’ (currently just 6bp and 16bp of cumulative hikes priced, respectively). The sticky pricing of a risk premium into the money market should keep 3yr government bond yields elevated with the potential to re-test the top of the 1.92-2.22% Q3 range (Chart 9).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.11.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-29%20at%2011.11.17%20AM.png" alt="">
Yet, we are less concerned about a breakout at the long-end. In our view, 10yr yields close to the recent high of c.2.9% present a bullish signal given that level is consistent with 5yr5yr peaking around 3.5%, equal to neutral rate estimates. Also, the historic tendency for the curve to flatten sharply as the RBA hikes should be expected to repeat, especially given the rise in household’s leverage (see Little to fear for the long-end, 30 August). The potential for the curve to flatten is greatest beyond 10 years, where supply is supportive and the curve is steep, particularly vs. those markets that have already hiked rates (Chart 10). 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC.
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RBA on hold this month, waiting for Q3 CPI: Paul Bloxham

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The Reserve Bank of Australia says it estimates the neutral nominal cash rate would be around 200 basis points above its current level.
The comments were contained in minutes of the RBA’s July 4 policy meeting.
The RBA’s estimate suggests the cash rate target will need to rise from 1.50 per cent currently to 3.5 per cent over an unspecified time.
The neutral rate would be consistent with the economy operating at full capacity with inflation stable.
Capital Economics’ chief economist Paul Dales said the discussion of “neutral” rates “could be interpreted as a sign that the bank is starting to think” about raising interest rates from the current record low of 1.5 per cent.
It's going to be an interesting journey for home owners and investors.
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RBA board signals cash rate rise to 3.5pc

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GUEST OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent.
The minutes of the April Board meeting noted that “the Board judged that developments in the labour and housing market warranted careful monitoring over coming months”. It was therefore a little surprising that the Governor did not repeat that same sentiment in his statement.
Instead, the statement finished in the usual way “the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time”.
Possibly explaining this approach is a more confident assessment of the labour market. This comes in response to the March employment report which showed that full-time jobs increased by 74.5k and total jobs rose by 60.9k.
This one month report seems to have calmed concerns at the Bank. For example, in April the Governor commented that “indicators of conditions in the labour market have softened recently… the unemployment rate has moved a little higher and employment growth is modest”. In this statement, he notes that “the unemployment rate is expected to decline gradually over time” and employment growth has been a little stronger.
It is unlikely that we will be able to discern an improved outlook for the labour market in the Bank’s forecasts, which will be updated for the May Statement on Monetary Policy, to be released on September 5.
That is because the unemployment rate forecast is a rather timid “5-6 percent". As we predicted in the preview of the SoMP, it now seems likely that the key growth and inflation forecasts will remain unchanged from the February SoMP.
In the Governor’s statement today, he foreshadows that “growth is expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 percent”. Note that the growth forecasts for the February SoMP are 2.5-3.5 percent for 2017 and 2.75-3.75 percent for 2018 (mid-points of 3 percent and 3.25%).
Similar comments can be made about the inflation forecasts. The Statement refers to underlying inflation running at “around 1.75 percent” and gradually increasing. The forecasts for underlying inflation in the February SoMP are 1.5-2.5 percent in both 2017 and 2018 (or 2 percent mid-point).
While the Governor clearly responded to the better than expected employment report, there is no change in the assessment of the housing market despite recent reports that house price growth in April was the weakest for sixteen months. He still worries that growth in household debt is outpacing household incomes and notes that “prices have been rising briskly in some markets”. As in April, he points out that recently announced supervisory measures should help address housing risks.
Commentary on other aspects of the domestic economy remains downbeat. Indeed, whereas in April, he referred to “non-mining business investment has risen over the past year”, he now talks about non-mining investment” remaining low as a share of GDP“.
Finally, commentary on the global economy is more confident than in April. He talks about a “broad based pick up in the global economy” whilst recognising that commodity prices have recently reversed.
Conclusion
Westpac has been forecasting that the official cash rate will remain on hold throughout 2017 and 2018. With our view that growth is likely to slow in 2018 under the weight of a contraction in the residential construction cycle and falling terms of trade, the case for raising rates in that year will prove to be fragile.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/">Westpac</a>. 
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Reserve Bank more confident about labour market: Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
While many media outlets paint a rather bleak and uncertain future for the world economy, long-term bond yields in Australia finished 2016 higher than at any other point throughout the year.
This is even more impressive considering that the cash rate (which has a strong correlation with bond yields) was cut twice for a total of 50 basis points over 2016. Figure 1 shows how much long-term rates increased towards the end of last year and into 2017. Yields on 10-year Australian government bonds have increased by 74 basis points since September and nearly 100 points since the last interest rate cut in August. 
Table 1 shows the difference between yields on 10-year government bonds and 90-day treasury bills in basis points (1 point = 0.01 percent). 
This tells a similar story to the graph in Figure 1; a widening between short-term and long-term rates. The important point is that this widening from August until December last year is driven by an increase in long-term yields rather than a cut in short-term rates, as it was from July to August.
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2012.31.05%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2012.31.05%20PM.png" alt="">
Often if the yield curve becomes too inverted, the RBA is forced to cut short term rates to improve liquidity by incentivising banks and other institutions to lend out money. 
An increase in long-term yields is a dream scenario for the Reserve Bank, as this is a signal of higher investor confidence and a better outlook for the Australian economy. 
December was also the first month since September 2014 that the entire yield curve was positive (long term rates above medium, and medium term rates above short term). This is a sign that investors expect improving economic condition in the long run. It also shows investors’ belief that the economy will do well over the next few years.
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The ASX Cash Rate Futures market pegs the chances of a decrease in official cash rates at the next meeting (7th March) at 5 percent. While this may seem appropriately low, it does highlight that even with a rising yield curve, investors still believe an interest rate cut is more likely than a hike in 2017. 
For more information from Secret Agent, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 
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Rate cut more likely than hike in 2017: Secret Agent

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GUEST OBSERVER
As expected the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
With tomorrow’s prospect of a negative print for GDP growth in the September quarter, we were interested in whether that issue would be addressed in the Governor’s statement. To his credit he has done that by referring to “some slowing in the year ended growth rate is likely” but notes that growth is expected to pick up again in 2017.
In November the Bank released its forecasts that the economy would grow at close to potential in 2017 (forecast growth midpoint of 3 percent). It does not appear to have revised that view in this statement.
Indeed whereas in November the Governor’s statement recognised that commodity prices had risen, in December that increase is now assessed to “provide a boost to national income”.
The key policy sensitive areas of the labour market and housing are given the usual relatively extensive attention.
Overall, the assessment of the labour market appears to be a little less comfortable – the fall in the unemployment rate since December is qualified by “some measures of labour underutilisation are little changed.” Labour market indicators are still described as mixed with employment growth slowing but forward-looking indicators pointing to expansion in employment.
On the other hand, the commentary around housing is more upbeat. Conditions in the housing market are assessed to have strengthened with prices rising briskly in some markets. However, the statement does note that conditions vary considerably with prices falling in other markets.
Internationally, there is a hint of more confidence with “the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time.” Most importantly, whereas the near term performance of China is better than expected a few months ago (our assessment), “medium-term risks to growth remain.”
Not surprisingly, the closing paragraph signals the ongoing neutral bias with: “the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
Conclusion
Following the rate cut in May this year Westpac forecast that there would be a follow up cut in August and then rates would remain on hold throughout the remainder of 2016 and all of 2017. That was despite market pricing favouring more than one follow up cut in 2017.
Today’s statement further supports our long held view and given ongoing difficulties in the labour market the prospect of rate hikes in 2017, despite some developments in market pricing, seems remote.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>
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Uncertainty remains around the labour, housing markets: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The official cash rate is likely to fall to 1 percent or lower as a lack of fiscal policy from the government places the onus on lifting demand on a weaker currency and the RBA, Macquarie says. 
In a bearish note, the investment bank's head of economic research James McIntyre says that without government policy support – backed by a global fiscal boost, or substantive structural reforms in key trading partners such as China – the RBA will be forced to cut rates further as it fights disinflatio n.
"With weak income growth a demand boost is needed. A weaker currency or fiscal policy boost are the two available options," Mr McIntyre said.
"The recent budget projected continued fiscal consolidation and only forecast a modest contribution to growth from public demand."
Wage growth hit an 18-year low<a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/wage-growth-hits-new-18year-low-20160518-goxpit"> </a>in the March quarter, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed this week.
Government support appears unlikely, and the currency is unlikely to fall on its own because global investors are drawn to the Australian dollar for its relatively high returns, given the ultra-low interest rates worldwide. 
The RBA will therefore be forced to slash the cash rate to 1 percent – a 75 basis-point fall from its current record low of 1.75 percent – or lower to keep a lid on the currency. It may have to cut even further to push the Aussie low enough to lift domestic demand, Mr McIntyre said. 
"The decline in the Australian dollar has helped to improve Australia's competitiveness whilst sustaining nominal price levels in the economy – although wages are adjusting lower," he said.
Bearish banks
But a further fall in the local currency to around US65¢ is necessary to assist the economy's adjustment beyond trade services, he said. The dollar is currently buying around US72¢.
The assessment is the most bearish among Australia's major banks. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ Banking Group and Westpac Banking Corporation all forecast a cut to 1.5 percent by the second quarter of 2017, according to a Bloomberg survey on May 6. But National Australia Bank has the rate remaining at 1.75 percent. 
Lower for longer interest rates would drive government bond yields lower, and Macquarie expects the 10-year bond yield to fall below 2 percent in the 2017 financial year.
On Monday<a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/australian-10year-bond-yield-at-lowest-ever-20160516-govw3q"> </a>the yield fell to 2.2 percent, its lowest level in more than a century, down from 2.55 percent ahead of the RBA's latest policy meeting, where the cash rate was cut to 1.75 percent.  
But the economy is still tipped to grow, and avoid a recession, Mr McIntyre said. 
Gross domestic product will grow at a rate of 2 to 2.5 percent, or "muddle through", helped by Australia's strong population growth and a one-off lift in resource export volumes that will generate 75 to 125 basis points of growth over the next three years. Outside of this boost, the economy will flatline. 
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RBA will be forced to cut interest rate to 1 percent or lower, Macquarie says

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Macquarie Securities, in a note to clients, has lowered its cash rate expectation to 1 percent, and its nominal 10-year bond yield forecast to below 2 percent.
Macquarie also downgraded its “year-end target on the ASX200 from 5900 to 5700” on the back of disappointing earnings expectations for 2016.
It believes the local currency will round off the year at around US67c.
Macquarie Group analysts believe the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut the cash rate three more times before the current easing cycle ends.
The group revealed its new outlook in a note yesterday saying its former risk case for a record low of 1 percent had now become its “base case” owing to more extreme inflation weakness than expected.
“We think that the RBA will have to cut the cash rate further, to at least 1 per cent, and have further delayed the timing of expected policy normalisation,” the note read.
“With little to differentiate Australia from other advanced economies, the risk lies with a slow and persistent grind to even lower rates.”
The group foresees just one more rate cut this year, likely in August, but expects a further two in 2017 in May and August.
A similar call came from JPMorgan last week, with its 1 percent forecast at the low end of the range among all other analysts.
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Macquarie sees interest rates at below 1 percent in 2017

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A majority of economists and experts say abolishing negative gearing would affect housing affordability in the future, according to a recent survey by leading comparison website finder.com.au.
The survey, released in the wake of Reserve Bank of Australia's recent decision to keep cash rates on hold at 2 percent, also revealed that the central bank's decision was expected. 
The cash rate has been on pause for almost a year with the last change – a cut – occurring in May 2015.
On the topic of negative gearing, 65 percent of respondents said there was a chance that eliminating negative gearing would result in a drop in property prices, with 23 percent predicting a "significant" drop of over 5 percent.
However, when looking at the effect of removing negative gearing on the market overall, a total of 30 percent thought that this had a some chance or a slight chance of increasing the likelihood of a significant market contraction, or triggering the collapse of a "housing bubble". The remaining 70% of economists said it would not trigger a market contraction. A third (33 percent) said there was no housing bubble in the Australian market.
On the brighter side, a softening of property prices combined with record low interest rates could encourage more first home buyers into the market, according to Bessie Hassan, money expert at finder.com.au.
In addition, the size of Australian mortgages continues to fall, hitting a low of $372,400 in January, dropping from an all-time high of $386,300 in November 2015, indicating uncertainty in the market – which could play out in first home buyers' favour. The average loan size for first time buyers has fallen from $355,500 in October 2015 to $338,800 in January.
"For those first home buyers who have been priced out of the property market to date, now may be their chance to get their foot on the ladder," Hassan said.
"A decline in average national mortgage size shows that borrowers are feeling less comfortable within the low rate environment than they were months ago, and are therefore borrowing less money to buy.
"All borrowers need to remember that these record low interest rate are not here to stay. If and when rates rise, this will lead to higher repayments – approximately $50 per month more for a $300,000 loan size, and thousands of dollars more over the life of your loan.
"Before jumping into the property market, do your research and factor in a buffer of 2-3 percent to accommodate for future rate rises, so you're not stung with a nasty shock months into becoming a homeowner."
The survey, the biggest of its kind, according to finder.com.au, revealed that 34 of 35 leading economists and experts (97 percent) had predicted that RBA would hold rates.
Hassan added that the majority of experts believed the economy was still tracking well and there would be no movement for the rest of the year.
"60 percent (21 experts) forecast the cash rate will hold at 2 percent for the rest of the year, while 20 experts are predicting a rate rise – but not until 2017 at earliest."
Just three experts (9 percent) expect a fall beyond 2016.
Of the economists (31) who weighed in on how low the cash rate would drop this cycle, 52% (16) said it would drop no lower than its current value. Twenty-nine percent (9 experts) predicted a low of 1.75 percent, and 19 percent (6) forecast the rate to drop to 1.50 percent or lower.
 
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