Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

cash rate

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Stephen Koukoulas, the research fellow at Per Capita, a progressive thinktank, was forecasting the need for rate cuts as early as August last year.
He was the only one from a Bloomberg Survey in August 2018 who predicted a rate cut of any kind out of 21 economic groups/economists surveyed.
Koukoulas' forecast for Market Economics (pictured below) was remarkably accurate for where he foresaw rates as we got into the third quarter of 2019.
Even earlier, in June of 2018 he outlined "<a href="https://thekouk.com/item/612-the-remarkably-simple-case-for-an-rba-rate-cut" target="_blank">The remarkably simple case for an RBA rate cut</a>" in a blog on his website.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/3/Koukoulas%20table.JPG" alt="">
In a series of tweets yesterday Stephen Koukoulas suggested "that may well be the last interest rate cut we'll see for a while"
"Is an interest rate cut a good sign or not? Well, like an ambulance at a car crash, it is good that it's there, but it's there for bad reasons"
"If only the RBA had taken this action a year ago and not been blindsided by house prices, finical stability, household debt and rose coloured glasses #RBAfail" 
In an article for the The Guardian, Mr Koukoulas said the RBA was "starry-eyed" about the economic outlook.
He suggested errors and misjudgments had cost tens of thousands of jobs, with the unemployment rate rising, underlying inflation hitting record lows and annual wages growth stalling at a little above 2%.
"The RBA is now playing catch up," he wrote.
"Whether the RBA has done enough with a 1% cash rate to kickstart the economy to the point where wages growth and inflation pick up to more comfortable levels is not yet clear."
No other forecaster surveyed suggested there would be rate cuts coming, with several suggesting there were hikes on the horizon.
They included ANZ, CBA, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and NAB.
Laminar Capital were the group with the highest forecast by this quarter, predicting a cash rate of 2.25%.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Economist Stephen Koukoulas' spot on rate call was months ahead of "starry-eyed" RBA

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This column is going to be a little controversial however, lenders are well within their rights keep a portion of future rate cuts up their sleeve.
Furthermore, the fact that banks have to consider mortgage holders as well as savers is an important consideration.
It is true that Australians are obsessed with housing.
In no way is this better reflected by the fact that interest rate cuts are cheered because they lead to cheaper interest cost on our mortgages and interest rate rises are jeered because our repayments increase. This is notwithstanding the fact that lower interest rates typically reflect a slowing economy with low inflation and low wages growth that requires more stimulus.
On the other side, higher interest rates typically reflect stronger inflation, stronger wage growth and an economy that is overall too strong.
Looking at data from the Reserve Bank to April 2019 shows that the value of deposits with authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) was recorded at $1.584 trillion.
By comparison, the total value of outstanding mortgages was recorded at $1.825 billion. The value of outstanding housing credit is larger than the value of deposits however, bank deposits account for 86.8% of the value of outstanding housing credit.
Since this long interest rate cutting cycle began in November 2011, the cash rate has dropped from 4.75% to 1.5% in May 2019 with an additional 25 basis points of interest rate cuts delivered this month, taking the cash rate to 1.25%. Between October 2011 and May 2019, an owner occupier with a principal and interest mortgage has, on average, seen their mortgage interest rate reduce by 218 basis points.
Over the current interest rate cutting cycle, mortgage interest rates to owner occupiers have reduced by 218 basis points however, the drop in savings and term deposit rates has been much greater.
As an example the fall in some of the rates are detailed below (based on averages published by the RBA):
1. Rates for banks bonus savings accounts with at least $10,000 have fallen 330 basis points to 2.15%
2. Rates for online savings accounts with at least $10,000 have fallen 400 basis points to 0.85%
3. Rates for cash management accounts at banks with deposits of at least $10,000 have fallen 320 basis points to 0.45%
4.Rates for three month term deposit rates with at least $10,000 have fallen 320 basis points to 1.85%
5. Rates for three year term deposit rates with at least $10,000 have fallen 330 basis points to 2.3%
As this data shows, while on average the benefit of the reduction in mortgage interest rates to owner occupier borrowers has been 218 basis points, the reduction in interest rates for savers has been significantly larger. Mortgages are a generally large and significant debt, so many view the drop in mortgage interest rates as more beneficial, especially with the increased use of mortgage offset accounts over recent years.
However, with official interest rates as low as they are currently and savers having experienced much greater interest reductions than mortgage holders, it could be argued there is currently little benefit in saving.
While that may potentially be good for the economy (more spending) and lower interest rates are certainly perceived as good for mortgage holders, there is a fairly large proportion of the population that rely on savings as well as those that have little or no mortgage debt.
Another factor to consider is that the major banks, which account for the majority of mortgage lending in the country, remain heavily reliant on domestic deposits to fund their mortgage lending. The latest data available shows that around two thirds of major banks non-equity funding comes from domestic deposits.
Very low interest rates discourage saving and over time could lead to a drop in domestic deposits and an increase in the requirement for lenders to increase their reliance on other sources of funding (such as offshore).
Listed lenders also have a responsibility to their shareholders. Very low mortgage rates have the potential to further depress net interest margins.
This increases the likelihood that future cuts to the cash rate may not be passed on in full and likely explains why the reduction to deposit rates have to-date been larger than the cuts to mortgage interest rates.
As always when interest rates are changed there are winners and losers.
For the most part the focus is on the benefit of lower interest rates for mortgage holders what is often forgotten in the conversation, and has been throughout the current rate cutting cycle, is how much lower interest rates hurt savers and disincentive saving.
Given cuts to interest rates for savers have been much greater than cuts to interest rates for mortgage holders and savers are not that much of a smaller cohort than mortgage holders it is reasonable for lenders to have greater consideration of the impact of the current ultra-low interest rates on this segment of the market.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The case for not passing on RBA cash rate cuts to home loan mortgage rates: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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The NAB have changed their cash rate forecast call to include an extra cut in late 2019.
They now believe the official cash rate from the RBA will drop to 0.75%, scheduling in another rate cut in November, following a cut in August.
"While heavily data dependent, we have tentatively placed the cut in November," NAB senior economist Alan Oster said.
"We also think that lower interest rates will be supported by fiscal stimulus later this year."
The view joins that of Westpac's Bill Evans, who penned in <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-tips-interest-rate-cuts-in-both-june-and-august-bill-evans">two rate cuts in June and August</a> before adding November to their <a href="/news/rba-to-halve-the-cash-rate-by-november-bill-evans">cut forecast</a>.
Before June's rate cut, NAB said that the at the next three RBA meetings there will be a <a href="/expert-insights/finance/next-three-rba-meetings-are-live-for-a-possible-rate-cut-nab">real possibility for three cuts</a>.
The RBA <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-cut-official-cash-rate-to-a-historic-low-1-25-at-june-2019-meeting">cut the cash rate</a> at the June meeting for the first time in nearly three years to a historic low 1.25%.
Oster said they can't predict whether the next cut will be in July or August.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/14/NAB-Forecasts.jpg" alt="">
"On the question of a July or August cut that is very hard – and to a large extent is less relevant for the economic outlook," Oster noted.
"On the one hand given a starting point problem (i.e. the economy is weaker than the RBA expected and continues to lose momentum) the RBA should probably get on with the cutting cycle. 
"On the other hand, there does seem to have been a post- election boost to confidence and it is too early to assess if that has flowed into activity in any sustained way. 
"Also back to back cuts could send a strong signal that the economy has bigger problems than we thought.  On balance we have opted to stay with our August cut forecast – but would not at all be surprised by a July move. 
Oster said that the possibility of alternative monetary action in early 2020 can not be ruled out.
"The forecast of a larger reduction in interest rates reflects our judgment that the economy is losing momentum and is weaker than reflected in the Reserve Bank’s recently downgraded near-term growth outlook," Oster suggested.
"The loss of momentum is apparent in private demand, which has barely grown over the past year, and more timely indicators, such as the NAB business survey and internal data, which point to a weaker labour market and entrenched weakness in spending.   
"The Reserve Bank Board said when cutting rates earlier this month that the lower cash rate would help make further inroads into spare capacity and “achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target”, with Governor Lowe emphasising that the cut did not reflect a weaker outlook for the economy. 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

NAB add extra cut forecast in November to take rate down to 0.75%

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The good news for homeowners and investors has continued with the Reserve Bank cutting the official cash rate by 25 basis points to a historic low of 1.25%.
This decision follows hot on the heels of APRA calling on lenders to scrap the 7% mortgage interest rate test and the Federal Election result that has ensured that property tax benefits such as negative gearing and the 50% capital gains tax discount are maintained. 
Many of the offices I have spoken to or visited over the last two weeks are reporting their phones started ringing again on the Monday morning after the election.
This result underlines once again that consumers don’t like uncertainty.
The decision by the central bank today will have a similar result on buyer confidence and throw in the Federal Government’s new First Home Loan Deposit Scheme announced during the Federal Election campaign, and the short to medium term outlook for Australian property markets is much stronger than even a month ago.  
However, to achieve the intended impact of the easing, it’s imperative every lender passes the 25-basis point cut on to borrowers in full.
The RBA’s move will help affordability for first home buyers.
The caveat is that the banks must come to the party and pass this rate cut on in full.
First home buyers have all the power in the market right now. They have all the support from the government, the central bank, the lenders, and there are plenty of incentives aimed at first timers seeking to buy off the plan property.
However, the trouble is empty nesters don’t have the incentives to move, which is hindering the housing plans of upgraders and first-time buyers. 
We need governments to look at ways to provide last-time buyer incentives to help encourage the empty nesters to downsize. 
Tax incentives have been proven to work for first-time buyers. Now is the time to try to encourage empty nesters to move through tax incentives.
ANGUS RAINE is the Executive Chairman of Raine &amp; Horne
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Rate cuts help affordability, but governments need to consider last-home buyer incentives: Angus Raine

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GUEST OBSERVATION
If we can avoid a recession for another two years, then on July 1, 2021 Australia will have recorded a record 30 years of economic expansion. We will be entering our fourth decade recession-free.
That’s the expectation embedded in the Reserve Bank’s latest set of forecasts in its <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy</a>. But it will be a challenge.
A major downturn in housing markets, historically low interest rates and an international economy more complex and troublesome than we have seen for decades mean the new government will need to take bold and creative decisions in order for us to achieve this truly remarkable milestone.
Things would be okay globally…
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274096/original/file-20190513-183080-1p0rgsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274096/original/file-20190513-183080-1p0rgsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy May 2019</a>
The bank has painted a benign picture of the global economic outlook for the next few years after recent data have allayed concerns about a US recession.
The Chinese authorities appear to have stabilised growth in the world’s second largest economy after fears of a steeper decline in activity emerged late last year. Although the Chinese economy faces many challenges, there doesn’t appear to be any signs of an imminent problem.
That should leave economic growth in Australia’s major trading partners at a respectable rate of 3.75% over the next few years, not too different to the global economy. While not exactly a boom, it should be enough to support the Australian economy through to 2021.
This is reflected in the bank’s expectations for the key sectors linking Australia to the world economy. Resource exports are expected to experience strong growth, as are education exports and tourism.
The bank is even expecting manufacturing exports to grow, due to healthy global economic growth and a low Australian dollar. The same can’t be said for rural exports, with drought conditions expected to hurt our international sales for some time.
…were it not for the threat of a trade war
This otherwise upbeat assessment of global economic prospects could come to naught if the renewed trade dispute between the US and China intensifies. The bank identifies this as a major risk to Australia’s economic outlook.
Even though Australia could benefit from the dispute via Chinese domestic economic stimulus in response to difficulties in moving exports, a continuation of rising protectionist measures would impact us directly and indirectly as global economic growth slowed.
Managing the China relationship in the midst of Trump’s trade war will be critical for the incoming government. A misstep could see China use non-tariff measures to slow Australia’s exports.
It would also make life difficult for Australian companies attempting to capitalise on the opportunities offered by China’s emerging middle class.
In Australia, households are battening down
The Reserve Bank expects employment to continue to grow by enough to keep the unemployment rate stable. However, there seems to be little prospect of a rapid pick up in either wages or inflation that will make a dent in Australia’s household debt burdens.
The bank has made it clear that the very low inflation environment will be with us for several years to come. It expects the inflation pulse of the economy, which appears to have slipped to around 1.5% in the past six months, to only slowly pick up, climbing towards 2% by 2020 and just above 2% (and back into the Reserve Bank’s target zone) in 2021.
That gradual increase is unlikely to be meaningfully outstripped by wages growth, implying either a very small lift in living standards or no increase in living standards. It will result in very low consumption growth.
The bank is forecasting historically weak consumption growth of about 2.5% for the next few years. It will put the high-employing retail sector under pressure.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274095/original/file-20190513-183077-5xz4du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274095/original/file-20190513-183077-5xz4du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, May 2019</a>
Two more rate cuts…
The only good news for households (those with debt at least) is that there is interest rate relief in prospect. The bank uses market pricing for the interest rate assumptions in its forecasts. Markets are pricing a cash rate of 1% over the year ahead, down from the present record-low 1.5%. The bank suggests it will come in two cuts of 25 points.
Even with 50 points of cuts factored in, the bank believes it will only just meet its targets of falling unemployment and 2% inflation. It might have to cut further.
But the effectiveness of interest rate cuts as a way of bolstering the economy is in serious question.
The costs of sustained easy money are rising.
Not only is wealth inequality a potential problem, but as interest rates get lower the banks find cuts harder to pass cuts on.
…but they mightn’t be enough
A major issue for the new government will be to recognise the new-found importance of fiscal policy (spending and tax policy) to support economic growth. It will need to be used in an even handed way, without a hint of pork barrelling. Otherwise it will be wasted.
While lower interest rates will good news for the large proportion of Australians that have mortgages, they will not be great for savers. Whether it is someone saving for a home deposit or someone living off retirement savings, super low interest rates will not make life easier.
This challenging environment for Australian households will have implications beyond just the economy’s performance, making <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-populist-moment-has-arrived-111491" target="_blank">for tricky political waters</a>. Populist political propositions will have much more resonance in difficult times, particularly in regional and rural areas with high retiree populations and the exposure to drought.
The next Australian government should not be complacent.
It will need to adopt an explicit strategy needs to deal with the economic and political fallout from the adjustments within the household sector. it will need to address falling wealth and low real income growth through serious structural reforms aimed at driving up productivity and real wages.
In the short term the government is going to need to be ready to deploy its substantial resources to support households should conditions deteriorate. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-income-tax-questions-answered-in-three-easy-charts-labor-and-coalition-proposals-side-by-side-115450" target="_blank">low and middle income tax offset</a> are a good starting point.
Business is in good shape so far…
Although business confidence has dropped over the past nine months, the Reserve Bank expects businesses to continue to invest and hire new staff. It expects non-mining business investment to expand at a healthy rate. But this can’t be taken for granted given the precarious nature of consumer demand.
The next government will have to be acutely sensitive to the risk of undermining business confidence. A hiring strike by business would be dangerous for an economy tiptoeing along a knife edge.
We might be surprised by good news. In other advanced economies an unexpected bonus has been strong employment growth despite economic and political uncertainty and modest economic growth.
While this international experience shouldn’t give us confidence that stronger employment growth translate into stronger wage growth, it might at least help maintain consumer spending in the face of lower house prices.
…except for construction
The Reserve Bank is explicit in its expectation that housing construction will turn down over the next two years. The drop off in activity could be big and have a major negative impact on employment. Although there is currently a high level of activity in commercial construction, particularly infrastructure-related activity, it is unlikely to be big enough to offset the downturn in housing construction.
Governments across Australia have an opportunity to think about nation building. Funding costs are low, government finances are strong and the shrinking construction sector will free up labour and other resources for important projects.
Which means its time for nation building
The next term of government will see very little economic momentum originating from consumers. They are in balance sheet repair mode. That makes it the perfect time for the governments to lead the way and drive private sector economic activity through a whole range of long-term investments in Australia’s future.
Coordinating this with the states and identifying the right projects will be the most important challenge facing the new government.
Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-next-government-can-usher-in-our-fourth-decade-recession-free-but-it-will-be-dicey-116887" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The next government can usher in our fourth decade recession-free, but it will be dicey

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Following the March quarter CPI report, a May RBA rate cut became the majority opinion amongst Australian market economists. Westpac however remained of the view that the first cut would instead come in August after the labour market turned down and as the RBA recognised growth was set to remain well-below trend through 2019.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/38365">Westpac’s view proved correct for May</a>, and the language of the decision statement was also consistent with our August/ November timing for rate cuts. Of greatest importance, the Board inferred in the statement that the labour market would have to strengthen further to stay a rate cut(s). In stark contrast, our analysis of the labour market suggests the cyclical sectors have already turned down sharply and that the headline measures will follow from April (a key release for next week).
On GDP growth, while the RBA only marked their 2019 GDP growth forecast to trend in May, the data-to-hand continues to point to a much weaker outcome. Note, in this week’s <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/38378">retail trade data</a> for the March quarter, sale volumes were shown to be up just 0.2% over the nine months to March. Ahead, as the labour market deteriorates, house price declines continue and the savings rate lifts, consumption (and consumer-linked investment in the retail sector) will come under further pressure.  
Across the Tasman, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/New_Zealand/2019/May_2019/MPS_Review_May_2019.pdf">the RBNZ</a> sought to get ahead of the curve by cutting the cash rate 25bps at their May meeting to 1.50%. The RBNZ had previously been betting on stronger growth in the domestic economy getting inflation back to the 2.0%yr target. However, this has not eventuated and hence, given global risks, the RBNZ decided to act.
Turning to Europe, the recent stabilisation in European data continued this week. The final April services PMI, March retail sales and May Sentix investor confidence all slightly beat consensus expectations, though March German factory orders underwhelmed. ECB President Draghi also remained constructive regarding policy’s effectiveness, reiterating a need to be patient and persistent to bring inflation back to target and that the ECB “don’t accept defeat”.
Over in the UK, the political situation continues to deteriorate. After a swing in local elections away from the conservatives, infighting is growing (again). Equally concerning, a Tory-Labour compromise is looking unlikely in the near-term, portending persistent Brexit uncertainty.
Finally to US and China trade. At the beginning of the week, President Trump surprised global markets by turning up the heat on China. Today the 10% tariff on $200bn of imports is set to be increased to 25% unless a deal can be reached in last-minute negotiations. A 25% tariffs on the remaining $325bn of imports from China to the US has also been mooted, though the timing is unknown.
If they become policy, these threats will not only put at risk China’s 2019 growth target of 6.0% –6.5%, but also the outlook for the US economy. The mutual cost to both nations is reason to believe a resolution will be reached, but not necessarily today. Clearly, there is significant distance between the two parties and the subject matter is highly contentious.
ELLIOT CLARKE is a senior economist at Westpac.
SIMON MURRAY is an economist at Westpac.
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Westpac continues to expect cuts in August and November

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Aussie consumers think that the economy is in good shape. But when it comes to their own finances, consumers aren’t feeling the love. No doubt people are still miffed that wages are growing at a slower rate than in the past. But consumers are starting to warm to the fact that wages are still out-pacing prices.
The index of consumer views of the economy in a year’s time is +12.2 points, well above the longer-term average of -0.6 points. And the index of views on the economy in five-years’ time is 13.3, above the long-term average of +8.0 points. The results on the current and future state of consumer finances are softer than the longer-term averages, although only modestly lower. Bottom-line: consumer conservatism is set to continue.
The Reserve Bank is open to cutting rates. But there is no rush. Board members expect that there will be further progress in reducing unemployment, lifting wage and prices, and therefore lifting consumer spending.
What do the figures show?
Consumer Sentiment
<ul>
<li>The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.9% after falling by 1.3% in the previous week. Sentiment has yo-yo’ed up and down for the last 11 weeks. Consumer sentiment is still above the longer term average of 113.1 points since 1990.</li>
<li>All of the five major components of the index rose last week:</li>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +3.2 points to +5.4 points; </li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +22.8 points to +22.9 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from +7.7 points to +12.2 points;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next five years was up from +11.6 points to +13.3 points; </li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +20.6 points to +22.6 points. </li>
<li>The measure of inflation expectations fell from a 4.3% to 3.9%. </li>
</ul>
Reserve Bank Board meeting minutes
Consumer spending: “Retail sales data and contacts in the Bank's liaison program suggested that growth in housing-related consumption had remained soft in recent months.”
Rate cut scenario: “Members also discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances. They recognised that the effect on the economy of lower interest rates could be expected to be smaller than in the past, given the high level of household debt and the adjustment that was occurring in housing markets. Nevertheless, a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and by reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure...year.”
No rate hike: “...members agreed that the likelihood of a scenario where the cash rate would need to be increased in the near term was low.”
Rate outlook: “Given this outlook for further progress towards the Bank's goals, members agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy. Members recognised that it was not possible to fine-tune outcomes and that holding monetary policy steady would enable the Bank to be a source of stability and confidence.”
Last paragraph: “Taking account of the further progress expected towards the Bank's goals, members assessed that it was appropriate to hold the cash rate steady. Looking forward, the Board will continue to monitor developments, including how the current tensions between the domestic GDP and labour market data evolve, and set monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and achieve the inflation target over time.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
In the current environment, retailers have to convince shoppers that there are deals to be had. Consumer confidence is OK without being super-positive.
If rates were to move in any direction in 2019, it would be down. Much will depend on the job market. And much will depend on the global environment, especially the China-US trade discussions. The Reserve Bank (RBA) is in no rush to change rates, saying “it was not possible to fine-tune outcomes.” In the RBA view, leaving rates low and stable was the best contribution it could make in the current environment.
Inflation was expected to stay low, but one reason for this was that “governments had been working to ease cost of living pressures, including through their influence on administered prices.”
The RBA said that “weakness in demand” had largely driven the slowdown in home lending but “There had also been some tightening in lending practices.” In terms of businesses, the RBA notes that business lending had been robust but loan growth was strongest for big business. Credit conditions had tightened for some small businesses. Clearly this is an area to watch in surveys of business spending and investment.
CommSec expects interest rates to be unchanged for the foreseeable future. But the loss of momentum across global economies means central banks are skewed to more accommodative monetary policies.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Consumers positive on the economy as the RBA mulls rate cut scenario: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The RBA minutes clearly indicate that they are willing to cut the cash rate and have set out the conditions that need to be fulfilled for it to occur.
We are encouraged by this new detail, and continue to believe the RBA will cut the cash rate in August and November this year.
The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate.
Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and via reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure”.
The Board even sets out the conditions for a rate cut, “members also discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.
The Board also notes that “members agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”. We would interpret the “near-term” concept as referring to the next Board meeting in May. We do not believe that statement excludes the possibility of our target timing of August for the first rate cut.
Of course, while the Board refers to “continued strength in the labour market data and moderating GDP growth sending different signals”, it would appear that the labour market data has a higher weighting from a policy perspective.
We are somewhat perplexed by that approach, given that employment is seen to be a lagging variable, and while the lags may be longer in this cycle, we think it is reasonable that the slowdown in expenditure and income growth will eventually weigh on jobs growth.
The minutes even refer to the evidence around forward looking indicators of labour demand being mixed with job advertisements having eased but job vacancies having increased as a share of the labour force. What is unclear is whether businesses, in a climate of softening demand, actually intend filling these vacancies.
We were interested that the Governor excluded his standard growth forecast for the current year in his Statement immediately following the April Board meeting. The minutes also exclude that forecast while pointing out that the 2018 growth rate of 2.3% was “below the forecasts presented in the February Statement on Monetary Policy”.
It appears almost certain that the RBA will lower its growth forecast for 2019 from 3% (above-trend) to 2.75% (around trend). Of course, the RBA has consistently argued that growth in 2020 will be a 0.25% below 2019 due to a slowdown in the contribution to growth from LNG exports. If it is to be true to that approach then it will have to forecast growth in 2020 at 2.5% (below trend).
Traditionally, central banks which are forecasting below trend growth should at the least be adopting an easing bias.
The tension between growth and the labour market data may allow a looser interpretation of the policy stance. Certainly, the approach taken in these minutes appears to point to a bias towards lower rather than higher rates, although ongoing strength in the labour market will keep rates on hold, at least for the time being.
Further support for this ‘bias’ interpretation comes with the observation that “financial market pricing implied that the cash rate was expected to be lowered in the second half of 2019 and then again in 2020”.
While in previous commentaries, the RBA was dismissive of a significant wealth effect, or a near-term downturn in dwelling construction, these minutes are more realistic.
Weakness in consumption, is noted to be concentrated in those items that are historically most correlated with housing prices and housing turnover, and the RBA’s liaison suggested that growth in housing related consumption had remained soft in recent months.
Dwelling investment is noted to be past its peak but there is still uncertainty about how quickly dwelling investment might decline with a large amount of work still in the pipeline. Westpac expects a contraction in new dwelling investment of around 10% in 2019.
Conditions in the established housing market are noted to have remained weak in recent months, with house prices continuing to fall in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, and even declining in most other capital cities and regional areas.
The RBA offers no forward guidance as to how far this cycle has to run. Westpac expects that this market will remain soft throughout the course of 2019 and well into 2020.
Conclusion
We have been encouraged by these minutes from the perspective of our rate cut call.
The Board has made a clear case for the benefits of lower interest rates, discounting arguments to suggest that it sees little benefit from lowering rates given the very low starting point.
The Board also lays out clearly the conditions for lowering those rates around inflation and the labour market. It appears that it has resolved the uncertainty around the conflicting signals between growth and employment by favouring the labour market.
That is disappointing for us, given that the previous policy responses have been linked to growth forecasts, although we expect that persistently slow growth should begin weigh on the labour market.
While prospects for a policy response in May have disappeared, there is still ample time and data releases to justify our timing that there will be cash rate cuts in August and November.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac.
You can read the full <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2019/2019-04-02">RBA Statement here</a>.
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RBA Board minutes set out the conditions for a rate cut: Westpac's Bill Evans 

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has today made the decision to leave the nation’s official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.50%.
RBA board members have held the nation’s cash rate yet again, however a range of economic factors are likely to encourage the bank to cut the rate.
The OCR’s function as an anchor to lenders’ interest rates shifted over 2018, as lenders were forced to respond to higher funding costs. Moreover, markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut by August this year, adding further pressure on the RBA to change its long held stance on monetary policy.
The RBA considers a range of global and domestic economic factors when making its monetary policy decisions. At its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve took a dovish stance on monetary policy, opting to hold the Fed funds rate at 2.25-2.50%. A rate hike was expected by the Fed, however comments from Chairman Powell points to no increases in the near-term due to ongoing economic expansion in the US.
In the minutes of the March Monetary Policy Meeting, RBA board members noted that trade tensions continue to weigh on the global economic outlook. Members noted that in Australia, labour market conditions had continued to improve. The RBA continues to monitor the weakening housing market, drawing attention to Sydney and Melbourne, where dwelling values had fallen 13% and 10% respectively, since their peaks.
The most recent CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index revealed that national dwelling values fell by 0.6% over March and have fallen by a cumulative 7.4% since peaking in October 2017.
The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the number of dwelling commitments to owner-occupiers fell 2.6% over January 2019.
Furthermore, National Australia Bank’s most recent Monthly Business Survey points to deteriorating business confidence. Similarly, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment revealed the weakest consumer mood since September 2017.
Today’s strict lending practices, born out of lenders’ self-imposed tightening in the wake of the Banking Royal Commission, continues to play a part in the slowing property market. This places greater importance on the need for future home buyers and borrowers alike to get in shape financially.
The slowdown in the nation’s economic growth would also be of concern to RBA board members, with recent GDP data revealing a slowdown in growth due in part to declining dwelling investment.
In the current lending environment, my advice to borrowers would be to speak to a mortgage broker to ensure their home loan applications are as tight as possible. The reality is that lenders are going to call out any and all undeclared living expenses on home loan applications, significantly lengthening the time to approval.
Preparing for a home loan application today is not as simple as saving for a deposit. The high level of scrutiny by loan assessors means prospective buyers, and those looking to refinance their loans, should be: cutting back on discretionary spending at least six months ahead; closing credit cards that are no longer being used and reducing limits where possible; and knowing where they are spending every dollar.
The good news for those with property ownership aspirations is that lenders are aggressively competing for low risk borrowers, which means it’s a great time to learn what your options are.
If you are looking to apply for a home loan this year and need to get home buying ready, speak to your local Mortgage Choice mortgage broker. A broker will assess your financial situation in the same way a lender would and give you a clear indication of your borrowing power.
When the time comes your broker can help you prepare a home loan application that has the best chance of being viewed favourably by the lender you choose.
SUSAN MITCHELL is the Chief Executive Officer of Mortgage Choice
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RBA's stalemate nearing its end: Mortgage Choice CEO Susan Mitchell

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<div class="tg-tlc-storybody_intro">
National Australia Bank economists no longer forecast a 2019 rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The bank has join those who believe there possibly could be a rate cut before the end of this year.
</div>
The economists said they no longer expected the RBA to hike rates in late 2020, a prediction they made as recent as late 2018.
"We ... now expect the cash rate to remain on hold over the forecast horizon," the bank's economists advised in a research note released today.
"While our central case is for the cash rate to remain on hold, based on the balance of risk, the next move could well be down - potentially as soon as H2 2019."
The RBA has kept rates at 1.5 per cent since August 2016, but last week itself shifted from a bias toward rate hikes to a more neutral stance.
"In particular, we see ongoing slow wage growth, falling savings rates, high debt levels and falling house prices as ongoing headwinds," NAB said in a note authored by chief economist Alan Oster, global head of research Ivan Colhoun and senior economist Gareth Spence.
"Our forecasts raise the question as to why the RBA would not move to give the economy some further support," they said.
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