Brunswick is set for some of its largest apartments ever delivered with the upcoming new development Frith &amp; Howarth, where the apartments are around 20 per cent larger than what has come before it in the sought-after suburb.

Developer Young Group focused its design on Frith &amp; Howarth around size and scale, but within a boutique building, to create a mini neighbourhood within the mid-rise development. There are just 24 apartments in the mid-rise building on Victoria Street, a short walk to Brunswick Station and the cafe and dining strip along Sydney Road.

“We spent hours comparing what’s currently on the market so we could offer genuine points of difference,” Young Group says, pointing to room sizing, storage, and functional planning as key drivers behind the design.

All of the two-bedroom apartments in the building have been snapped up, with just the large three- and four-bedroom apartments, with the biggest floorplans and best outlooks, remaining.

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Apartments open directly into open-plan living zones where full-height glazing draws light deep into the apartment. Sliding doors extend the space outward to terraces, many oriented toward the adjacent park or back toward the city skyline.

Kitchens sit within this central space, anchored by sculptural island benches that reference the building’s faceted exterior language. Storage is integrated across multiple layers, overhead cabinetry, concealed joinery, and, in larger configurations, dedicated sculleries or butler’s pantries.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354137]

The penthouse is the largest ever offered in Brunswick. The penthouse measures nearly 400 sqm all-up, with 242 sqm of internal space complimented by a further 149 sqm of terraces.

It spans the whole top floor and has four bedrooms, four bathrooms, and parking for four cars.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354133]

Low maintenance resident amenity has been created in the form of a landscaped rooftop, complete with&nbsp;vegetable plots, outdoor cooking areas, and aflresco dining spaces, designed as a place for neighbours to gather outside of their homes.

“To enable connection with neighbours, generous rooftop gardens with communal spaces and outdoor cooking areas offer a chance to develop a sense of community,” says John Patrick, Principal of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/john-patrick-landscape-architects">John Patrick Landscape Architects</a>.&nbsp;

“Private open spaces with a selection of native and exotic plantings and gorgeous city views on the rooftop create a high-end aesthetic, with a low maintenance lifestyle. The perfect balance, so that residents can enjoy a serene living space.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354134]

Sustainability is embedded at both the building and apartment level. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/frith-howarth-288-290-victoria-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Frith &amp; Howarth</a> is one of only a small number of all-electric residential developments in Brunswick, supported by solar infrastructure, EV-ready parking, and high-performance glazing. These measures sit alongside less visible systems such as rainwater reuse and high-grade insulation, reducing long-term operational costs while maintaining consistent internal conditions.

Positioned within walking distance of Brunswick Station, Route 96 trams, and established retail along Sydney Road and Barkly Square, the development balances access to transport with proximity to open space, a combination that has become increasingly difficult to secure in inner-city sites.

“These exquisite homes are nestled in a culturally diverse neighbourhood, with parklands and nature right on your doorstep,” says Young Group.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134317]

Joel Robinson

Frith & Howarth to deliver Brunswick’s largest apartments

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> in Brunswick is entering its final stages of construction, with the removal of the project’s last tower crane and the unveiling of the building’s full façade marking a significant milestone ahead of completion this coming spring.

The Park Street development, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;and Mirvac Design with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, is now largely structurally complete, with internal works progressing across the 169-apartment project opposite Princes Park.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/mirvac-construction">Mirvac Construction</a> Project Manager Sam Payne said the latest update reflects a transition from structure to refinement.

“Since our last update, all façade panels have been installed and the scaffolding and gantry has come down, unveiling the building in its full form for the very first time,” Payne said.

“A significant milestone was reached this month with the removal of our final tower crane, signalling the completion of major structural works and a pivotal step forward in the building’s transformation.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366856]

Apartments are now well advanced internally, with joinery completed to level eight and tiling to level six, alongside the delivery of a prototype apartment used to set the benchmark for the remaining residences.

This next phase coincides with the release of a completed furnished residence, styled by MCM House, and the introduction of private buyer tours, giving purchasers a clearer understanding of the finished product ahead of settlement.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> will comprise 169 one to four-bedroom apartments, with completion targeted for early spring. Interiors focus on natural materials and muted tones with two design schemes, while kitchens and bathrooms adopt a restrained palette anchored by stone, timber and textured finishes.

Bates Smart Director Jeffery Copolov said the project reflects a shared design direction centred on liveability and sustainability.

“Blending Mirvac and Bates Smart’s focus on wellness and sustainability, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> offers a new kind of conscious, elevated living in Melbourne’s inner north,” Copolov said.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> presents Mirvac's third parkside collaboration with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;in Victoria.&nbsp;Their previous collaborations delivered two of the city’s landmark apartment buildings: The Melburnian opposite Kings Domain and The Eastbourne on Fitzroy Gardens.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366857]

A key focus of the development is its landscape-led amenity offering. The central courtyard, spanning around 600 sqm, will feature established trees and planting grown off-site, alongside communal lawns and seating areas designed for everyday use.

Development Manager James Gardner said the outdoor spaces are central to the project’s lifestyle positioning.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> isn’t just a home, it’s a complete lifestyle offering, and the resident amenity is just one example of the elevated living experience the soon-to-be-complete building will be known for,” Gardner said.

The courtyard connects to a series of shared indoor and outdoor spaces, including a residents’ lounge, dining room, library and secondary west-facing garden area, designed as extensions of the apartments themselves.

Located directly opposite Princes Park and around four kilometres from the CBD, the development places residents within one of Melbourne’s most established inner-north precincts, with access to open space, transport and the retail and hospitality offerings of Brunswick and Carlton.

With façade works complete and landscaping and final finishes now underway, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> is moving into its most active construction phase, with permanent services and external works to be finalised in the coming months ahead of completion in spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]

Mirvac’s latest landmark, Prince & Parade Brunswick, enters final construction phase

Boutique Perth developer ADC has unveiled its latest project.

The developer, which focuses on bringing apartments to some of Perth's most premium inner-city and riverside suburbs, has launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mos-lane-mosman-park-46-manning-street-mosman-park-wa-6012">Mos Lane</a>, 68 luxury apartments and townhouses in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mosman-park-wa-6012">Mosman Park</a>.

<section data-scroll-anchor="true" data-testid="conversation-turn-124" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-69e027bc-1530-839b-a316-e9dad2cbd4d9-34" dir="auto">
Alongside the one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, the development will also include five two-level townhomes and two luxe penthouses. ADC is also introducing a significant retail offering for residents through Mos Lane Village, which will feature a wellness studio, fish and chips shop, barber, and florist, adding a layer of amenity not typically found in the predominantly residential Mosman Park area.

Construction has already commenced on the project, which sits just a short walk from the Swan River, Mosman Park Bowls Club, and Mosman Park Golf Course.

House Agency Directors Tom House and Lachlan McDonald say they are fielding the majority of buyer interest from local downsizers, as well as buyers with a long-standing affinity for Mosman Park.
</section>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364591]

Mos Lane will comprise two buildings; Samson House and Manning House, which have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nelson-koo">Nelson + Koo</a>, an emerging design consultancy specialising in the masterplanning and design of mixed use places and spaces.

The two buildings adopt distinct architectural responses to their surroundings. Manning House references the strong roof forms of nearby homes, with floorplates oriented to maximise light and long-range views, while Samson House is organised around a central atrium designed to bring daylight deep into the building and create a greater sense of openness.

At ground level, the inclusion of five townhomes introduces a typology more commonly associated with Mosman Park’s established streets, each with private courtyards and direct frontage, offering a transition between traditional housing and apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364103]

Interiors have been led by Melbourne-based Hecker Guthrie, with an emphasis on practical, long-term liveability. Residences incorporate sculpted joinery, generous storage and flexible multi-purpose rooms that can adapt to changing household needs, whether for working from home, guest accommodation or additional living space.

Material selections draw on a restrained palette of textured stone, timber and neutral tones, with options for lighter or darker schemes. Detailing such as fluted glass, full-height joinery and integrated appliances is intended to balance functionality with a more refined residential finish.

Outdoor spaces are a consistent feature across the development, with balconies and terraces designed for dining and entertaining, and larger apartments incorporating outdoor kitchens. Orientation has been considered to allow residents to choose between morning or afternoon sun, while mature street trees and landscaped communal areas contribute to a softer streetscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364107]

Shared amenities are positioned to support both day-to-day convenience and occasional use. These include a private dining room with a caterer’s kitchen, alfresco entertaining areas, and a bookable guest suite for visiting friends and family. Additional practical features such as a resident workshop, storage facilities, car and pet wash areas, and concierge-style services for cleaning and dry-cleaning collection reflect a focus on usability.

Positioned between the Swan River and Cottesloe Beach, and within reach of schools such as Iona Presentation College and St Hilda’s Anglican School, the development is aimed at a broad buyer group, from downsizers seeking a lower-maintenance alternative to larger homes, through to local residents looking to remain in the area in a different housing format.

Mos Lane represents one of the more significant additions to Mosman Park’s limited pipeline, combining new housing supply with a village-style retail centre in a suburb where opportunities for large-scale redevelopment are relatively constrained.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=148957]

Living village precinct set for Mosman Park as ADC launches Mos Lane

An entity linked to I&amp;D Group Founder Ivan Filipović has filed plans for a new residential development at 188–202 Swan Street in Cremorne, targeting a prominent site within the tightly held Swan Street activity corridor.

The proposal seeks to redevelop the consolidated Swan Street landholding into a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/188-202-swan-street-cremorne-vic-3121">high-density mixed-use project</a>, replacing a series of existing commercial buildings with a significantly scaled residential outcome. The planning submission positions the development as a response to increasing demand for housing in well-connected inner-urban locations, particularly within established activity centres.

Plans outline the construction of a 14-storey building delivering 165 apartments above a four-level basement, alongside a ground-floor retail and commercial offering designed to activate the streetscape. A key feature of the scheme is a new north–south pedestrian link connecting Swan Street to Railway Place, intended to “enhance permeability and provide an active, publicly accessible connection through the site.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7332a8f8-dd2b-483d-b86e-320658838c84" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne.png?VersionId=cXm8vAaRdHh.LpYVbecrRkjckgu9mtAF" />

The development will retain part of the existing built form at 198–200 Swan Street, while the remainder of the site will be cleared to accommodate the new structure. Basement levels will provide 196 car spaces and 113 bicycle spaces, with vehicle access from Railway Place. Communal amenity is distributed across the building, including a shared outdoor area on Level 1 and a rooftop terrace for residents.

Ground level uses include retail tenancies fronting Swan Street and the pedestrian link, a residential lobby, and a flexible commercial space positioned to support community-oriented uses. The planning report notes this space “could be offered as a flexible space within the development for community groups,” supporting short-term or longer-term occupancy arrangements.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8208bf7b-cc67-485d-ad0f-1d73a74c907f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne%20lane.png?VersionId=69ctjC0txXv0zCHy7qQUpJyGwvPAT7gw" />

The site sits within the Swan Street Major Activity Centre, surrounded by a mix of retail, hospitality, and emerging residential development, and directly opposite tram services along Swan Street. East Richmond Station is located to the south, providing strong rail connectivity, while the broader Cremorne precinct continues to evolve as a mixed-use hub.

I&amp;D Group, founded by Ivan Filipović, is regarded as one of Victoria’s largest formwork contractors, partnering with major construction firms across large-scale public and private developments. The Swan Street proposal signals a move into development-backed opportunities tied to strategic inner-city sites.

First Look: Plans lodged for Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street

An ultra-luxury absolute beachfront tower on the Gold Coast’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/main-beach-qld-4217">Main Beach</a> has officially hit the market, having secured over $150 million in presales.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/le-r-ve-main-beach-3555-main-beach-parade-main-beach-qld-4217">Le Rêve</a>, delivered by developer-builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/odus">ODUS</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/nazero">Nazero</a> in partnership with Metrics Credit Partners, comprises 40 opulent half and full-floor residences, perched directly on the dunes, starting from $7.45 million.

Pre-launch sales have achieved an average price tag of $8 million, highlighting strong demand from top-end buyers.

The 26-storey project at 3555 Main Beach Parade has development approval and is under construction, with completion anticipated by early 2028.

Occupying a 1,355 sqm site, Le Rêve enjoys double the beach frontage of most Main Beach towers, an incredible 30-metres, with generous 4.5-metre setbacks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112163 project_image_fid=357556]

ODUS director Byron Sakha said it offered a rare opportunity for wide, uninterrupted views that could never be built out, on one of the world’s most beautiful beaches.

“Le Rêve is French for ‘the dream’ and that’s what this location represents. We believe it is the best new development site anywhere on the Gold Coast; a dream site,” said Sakha.

“The apartments are located directly on the beachfront, with no roads or paths between, providing panoramic ocean views and direct access to the sand, and because it is elevated above the dunes, it also offers unrivalled privacy.

“We’ve worked with architect Bayden Goddard of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bgd-architects">BGD Architects</a> to enhance the original design, with a distinctive, elegant glass façade, world-class amenities, and the addition of eight residences. Le Rêve’s 30-metres of absolute beach frontage affords a view from virtually every room, and has allowed us to provide a grand 25-metre residents’ beachfront pool and private lawn.

“Buyers have recognised these opportunities are few and far between and have been quick to secure their place in Le Rêve.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112163 project_image_fid=357570]

The apartments start from nearly 300 sqm and range in size up to 900 sqm, with three or four bedrooms and multiple living spaces.

“The emphasis is on the view, with full-floor glazing, sleek glass balustrades and wrap-around balconies that are close to 4-metres wide, blurring the lines between inside and out, and inviting cooling ocean breezes,” Sakha added.

“The interiors epitomise understated luxury with natural materials, textures and tones including Taj Mahal stone, oak flooring, recessed LED lighting and high ceilings. Outside, its beautiful arched façade with glass balconies and double-storey curved podium will be complemented by lush, cascading landscaping that enhances Main Beach’s streetscape.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112163 project_image_fid=357567]

OTP Group Director James Elliott, who is selling&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/le-r-ve-main-beach-3555-main-beach-parade-main-beach-qld-4217">Le Rêve</a>, said buyers were from the Gold Coast, Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, and predominately moving from luxury stand-alone homes or purchasing as a holiday home.

“We are anticipating sales will continue to ramp up now we’re officially on the market and design enhancements have been finalised,” Elliott said.

“Le Rêve offers house-sized residences that take luxury living to the next level, in an unrivalled location, with exceptional onsite resident amenities.

“The facilities are some of the most unique on the Gold Coast, if not Australia-wide, with a huge beachfront pool and wellness amenities including a cold plunge pool, spa, sauna, steam room, gym and yoga studio, along with a teppanyaki kitchen, and private residents’ lounge."

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

The Le Rêve development site was secured for $55.68 million in mid-2025.

ODUS and Nazero are also developing the adjacent 29-level La Mer tower in partnership with Metrics Credit Partners, which is earmarked for completion in late 2026. A fully completed prototype apartment is now available for private inspection.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112163]

Le Rêve Main Beach launches with $152 million in presales

cash rate

Almost three-quarters of variable borrowers who asked for a rate cut, got one, a new survey has found.&nbsp;

In a RateCity.com.au survey of over 1,000 mortgage holders, of those on a variable rate, 52 per cent haggled with their bank for a lower rate. Over 73 per cent of these people were successful in getting at least one rate cut.

A rate reduction of 0.25 per cent could save the average mortgage holder $1,241 in interest after one year and $3,656 after three years. This is based on a $500,000 loan balance with 25 years remaining.

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29048 project_image_fid=151675]

RateCity.com.au home loan database analysis:

<ul>
	<li>49 lenders have cut at least one variable rate in the past two months.</li>
	<li>10 lenders have hiked variable rates in that time.</li>
	<li>The vast majority of variable rate cuts are reserved for new customers, not existing ones.</li>
</ul>

RateCity research director, Sally Tindall, said while the RBA is not expected to move the cash rate tomorrow, one phone call could potentially save the average variable rate mortgage holder thousands.

&ldquo;Variable rates are at record lows, however, most of these deals are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, unless you specifically ask,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;A lot of people think a handful of basis points won&rsquo;t make much of a difference, but if the discount is permanent, then the savings can potentially run into the thousands in just a few years.&quot;

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market

jordan_55689

Three out of four mortgage holders who asked for a rate cut, got one: RateCity 

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The RBA kept the official cash rate on hold, but that hasn’t stopped banks from moving home loan rates. 
  
While lenders have made a flurry of cuts to 2- and 3-year fixed rates in the last month, there has been an increase in the number of lenders hiking 4-year fixed rates. 
  
Analysis of the RateCity.com.au database shows 11 lenders have raised 4-year fixed rates, including CBA, Bendigo Bank and Aussie Home Loans, while only two have cut them. 
  
So why are 2-year fixed rates still dropping and 4-year rates rising?

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772] 
  
The RBA is helping facilitate the ultra-low fixed rates, in part, via its term funding facility, which allows banks to borrow money at a three-year fixed rate of 0.10 per cent. 
  
Over the last month, the majority of one- to three-year fixed rate changes have been cuts, not hikes, as lenders make the most of the low-cost funding available. 
  
However, in the last month the majority of four-year fixed rates changes were in the opposite direction as some banks start to factor in a likely rise to the cash rate in 2024 and the end of the RBA’s term funding facility on 30 June this year. 
  
The big question is whether Westpac will hike its four-year rate. Australia’s second largest bank currently has the lowest four-year fixed rate in the market. Hiking this rate could lose the bank its competitive edge in this category.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=26730] 
  
Watching these four-year rates come off the table has some people panicked they will miss the bottom. Just because these rates could be soon rise, doesn’t mean you should rush out and fix for the next four years. 
  
If you are looking to refinance, work out what type of mortgage suits your finances. 

Then shop around for a competitive rate, not the other way around.

Sally Tindall is RateCity.com.au research director
</body></html>

Work out what type of mortgage suits your finances, then shop around for a competitive rate, not the other way around

Why are 2-year fixed rates still dropping and 4-year rates rising? Sally Tindall

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EXPERT INSIGHT

After years of repeatedly <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574">missing its inflation target</a> through too timid monetary policy, in the past week the Reserve Bank has decided to get tough.

Not only did it hold its closely watched <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a> target steady at 0.10% at Tuesday’s board meeting, it ramped up its efforts to defend its separate 0.10% target for the three-year government bond rate in the face of a mini-revolt by bond traders.

A few weeks back, some of the traders in Australia and elsewhere got it into their heads that big borrowing by governments would force up bond rates - a relationship that was once thought to be clear cut but hasn’t held for some time.

The traders sold government bonds issued by Australia and other nations, which in the case of the bond market, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/07/price_yield.asp">forces up the bond interest rate</a>.

Then other traders piled on, partly because economic outlooks are improving and they thought governments might soon be issuing fewer bonds, and partly because they thought other traders might agree with the traders.

That’s right: “thought other traders might agree with the traders”.

<h2>Beauty contests can make markets mad</h2>

In financial markets you don’t make money by correctly guessing what will happen, you make it by correctly guessing what other traders think will happen.

One of the founders of modern economics, John Maynard Keynes, described it as a beauty contest in which judges are rewarded not for picking the most beautiful face, but for picking the face <a href="https://www.zeninvestor.org/keynesian-beauty-contest/">other judges</a> will think is the most beautiful.

It’s like the rules in <a href="https://www.liveabout.com/family-feud-brief-overview-1396911">Family Feud</a>.

The yield on Australian Commonwealth 10-year bonds climbed from 0.98% at the start of the year to 1.11% a month later, to an extraordinary 1.87% a month after that - a near-doubling in a matter of weeks.

Even the yield on three-year bonds, which the Reserve Bank has pledged to keep at <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">0.10%</a> crept up to 0.13%.

Last Friday, the Reserve Bank fought back.

It bought extra bonds a day after completing its usual purchases on Thursday.

This Tuesday, in its statement after its monthly board meeting, it added nine words to its usual acknowledgement that “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-01">wage and price pressures remain subdued</a>”.

Those words were: “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">and are expected to remain so for some years</a>”.

And then it released a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/announcements/rba-purchases-of-government-securities-2021-03">separate statement</a> reiterating that when its A$100 billion program of buying $5 billion of government bonds each week expires in May it will launch another $100 billion program, taking the scheduled bond buying through to November.

Since the program began last November, the bank has bought $74 billion of bonds. Its message was that if traders thought it was within $26 billion of running out of ammunition, it had another $100 billion. It doubled <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-M8e1YYiQg">the size of its knife</a>.

The bank can’t afford to lose

Keeping control of rates is a fight the Reserve Bank has to win. When it announces a change in an interest rate, usually the <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a>, it uses words along the lines of “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-06">the board decided to lower the cash rate</a>,” implying that it can.

The more accurate words it <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2001/mr-01-17">used to use</a> were “the bank will be operating in the money market this morning to reduce the cash rate,” an admission that it could only try to move the cash rate, by trading in financial instruments.

So effective have its pronouncements become that in recent years it hasn’t needed to do much trading to move the cash rate - it has just announced the move knowing that traders will fall into line because it could buy or sell financial instruments if it wanted to.

If it loses a battle with traders over rates, what it says will have much less force.

It has the resources it needs to win

The bank will win whatever battle it chooses to fight because it has unlimited resources. Unlike traders, it can <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/unconventional-monetary-policy">create</a> as many Australian dollars as it needs in order to buy as many bonds as it needs.

So far it has chosen to defend its ground on the cash rate and the three-year bond rate. It wants both at 0.1%.

It said on Tuesday it would “not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range”.

It added that for that to occur, wage growth will have to be “materially higher”, which would require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market.

And then the killer sentence, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">the last</a>, aimed directly at the traders: “The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.”

Although it released the statement one day before Wednesday’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/gdp-is-v-shaped-but-not-yet-good-these-three-graphs-tell-the-story-156372">national accounts</a> that showed the economic recovery continuing, it would have been aware of what they were likely to show.

It remains resolute.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156410/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" t1tcsswdv="" width="1">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-in-the-battle-over-interest-rates-itd-be-unwise-to-bet-against-the-rba-156410">original article</a>.
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In the battle over interest rates, it'd be unwise to bet against the RBA: Richard Holden

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Experts and economists are united in their view that the RBA will hold the cash rate this month, with only one prediction for any movements at all in 2021, according to the latest survey from Finder.com.au.

Tony Makin of Griffith University, believes the rate will increase this year due to the economic effects of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout.

“Global economic activity will pick up as countries are vaccinated. Given the expansion in money supplies, other things equal this will put upward pressure on inflation. Otherwise, macroeconomics textbooks need to be rewritten. 

“At the same time, record-breaking levels of public debt worldwide will continue to exert upward pressure on bond yields," Makin said.

Shane Oliver from AMP Capital said that while the economy has recovered faster than expected, the RBA is still a long way away from meeting its inflation and employment goals. 

“A rate hike is still a long way away. 

“That said, the faster than expected recovery will likely see the first hike occur earlier than the RBA's expectation of ‘no increase before 2024’. It could come late next year or early 2023," Oliver said.

Positive sentiment around both housing affordability (3%) and cost of living (3%) reached the lowest level ever recorded since the Finder survey began in 2018.

Employment continued to be the highest indicator measured with 55% expressing positive sentiment, down from its record-high of 73% last month.

Positive sentiment around employment plummeted to 0% in April when the lockdowns first began, but the nation’s stronger-than-expected economic recovery has resulted in a rosier outlook for the job market. 
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Experts and economists are united in their view that the RBA will hold the cash rate this month, with only one prediction for any movements at all in 2021

Experts and economists forecast a cash rate lockdown until 2022

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EXPERT OBSERVER

The Reserve Bank (RBA) has left the target rates for both the cash rate and 3-year government bond yield at 0.10 per cent. The RBA will purchase an additional $100 billion of bonds issued by the Australian Government and states and territories when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid-April. 
 

<h2>What has changed since the last RBA Board meeting on December 1?</h2>

• Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th US President.

• ANZ job advertisements rose by 2.3 per cent in January to 161,582 available positions. Ads have lifted for eight successive months to be up 5.3 per cent from a year ago.

• Employment rose by 50,000 in December after increasing by 90,000 jobs in November. Full-time jobs rose by 35,700 and part-time jobs rose by 14,300. The unemployment rate fell from 6.8 per cent to 6.6 per cent in December.

• Preliminary retail trade fell 4.2 per cent in December (9.4 per cent annual) after rising 7.1 per cent in November.

• The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose to a 15-month high.

• The NAB business confidence index fell from a 31-month high of +12.7 points to +4.5 points in December. But the business conditions index lifted from +7.0 points to 28-month highs of +14.2 points.

• The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to expand by 5.5 per cent in 2021, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the October 2020 forecast.

• The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.9 per cent in the December quarter to be up by 0.9 per cent on the year. The trimmed mean (underlying) measure rose 0.4 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.2 per cent on the year.

• Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) rose by 0.3 per cent in December to be up 1.8 per cent over the year.

• In the full twelve months to December the underlying Commonwealth Government cash balance was $186,120 million (9.5 per cent of GDP). The budget deficit for the six months to December was $9.5 billion lower than the ‘profile’ deficit.

• A retail trading frenzy for highly shorted stocks led to volatility on global sharemarkets and spilled over into the silver market.

• The Aussie dollar has lifted from US73-74 cents to US75-77 cents.

<h2>The Assessment</h2>

The Reserve Bank Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate until 2024 “at the earliest”. The first Tuesday in the month will never be the same.

<img alt="" height="436" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-02-02_at_3.16.43_pm.png" width="620">

<h2>Perspectives on interest rates</h2>

The Reserve Bank left the cash rate at 0.10 per cent after cutting the rate from 0.25 per cent on November 3. The RBA previously cut the cash rate on March 3 and March 19, 2020, each by 25 basis points. The target rate for 3-year bond yields was left at 0.10 per cent.

On November 3 the RBA cut the 3-year bond target from 0.25 per cent to 0.10 per cent. The RBA implemented the 0.25 per cent target rate for 3-year bond yields on March 19, 2020. There have been 18 cash rate cuts since November 2011 with the cash rate cut from 4.75 per cent. Previously cash rates rose seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.

<h2>What are the implications of RBA's decision?</h2>

• The Reserve Bank used the word, “strong”, five times in the statement. The economic recovery, employment and retail spending were all described as “strong”.

• The Reserve Bank Governor will go into more depth about the economic recovery in a speech tomorrow. Further, Governor Lowe gives testimony to the House of Representatives Economics Committee on Friday. On the same day the RBA issues the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy that includes the latest forecasts. We received some inkling of the forecasts today: “In underlying terms, inflation is expected to be 11⁄4 per cent over 2021 and 11⁄2 per cent over 2022.”; “the central scenario is for unemployment to be around 6 per cent at the end of this year and 51⁄2 per cent at the end of 2022.”; the central scenario being for GDP to grow by 31⁄2 per cent over both 2021 and 2022.

• The Reserve Bank Board’s central scenario requires significant job gains and a return to a tight labour market to stoke inflation. And that is not expected until 2024 at the earliest.
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The RBA has left the target rates for both the cash rate and 3-year government bond yield at 0.10 per cent, with an increase not expected until 2024 "at the earliest"

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RBA interest rates - Set the watch for 2024: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>A double-shot Friday, with speeches from both Reserve Bank Governor Lowe and Assistant Governor Luci Ellis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lowe's speech effectively confirmed that the inflation target is asymmetric.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although 'committed' to the 2 to 3 per cent inflation target, the next move in interest rates will be up, he noted, even though inflation is yet again set to fall below the target. As energy and fuel price pressures ease the rate of inflation will likely drop over the second half of the year. That's good to the extent that it eases pressure on household budgets, of course. But, in the spirit of Mr. Micawber, it is hoped that eventually inflation will pick up again. Amazon might have something to say about that as retail price deflation again rears its head. Rates on hold
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether you agree or otherwise, at least it's been made clear: the cash rate is going to be set at 1.5 per cent for a long time! Probably a very long time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lowe also delivered an interesting interpretation of housing credit dynamics, noting that the slowing of the housing market had reduced demand for credit by investors, in doing so citing low mortgage rates as evidence that the reduced supply of credit has not been the main story.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The plural of anecdote is not data, but that's not quite the feedback we've been getting from mortgage brokers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Semantics, maybe, given the reflexive nature of such things.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Luci on lags</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Assistant Governor Ellis also presented an interesting speech on lags, showing how the unemployment rate has been improving (if not very much for the long term unemployed).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No arguments there, although building permits are now falling away outside Melbourne (OK, and Hobart), while money growth is now at the lowest level in more than a quarter of a century. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If those weak leading indicators persist, then eventually the economy will start to slow too...yes, it's those pesky lags again!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Maybe that's already happening, according to the timeliest business surveys.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force figures released this week also showed that the growth in hours worked is already on the way down. </div>
 
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kDmz34Ipxs0/W3dJwWlfd7I/AAAAAAAArlU/3SWaE5U_PZwsGrTrZ21uEB5LO6qLF99oACLcBGAs/s1600/a1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kDmz34Ipxs0/W3dJwWlfd7I/AAAAAAAArlU/3SWaE5U_PZwsGrTrZ21uEB5LO6qLF99oACLcBGAs/s640/a1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1342"></a></div>
Long story short, inflation is low because the economy remains well below its full capacity.
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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The cash rate is going to be locked at 1.5 per cent for a very long time: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
As widely expected, at its May meeting the RBA made no further changes to monetary policy having undertaken a substantial easing in March via a cut in the cash rate to 0.25%, targeting the three year bond yield at 0.25% to be supported by quantitative easing and providing funding to the banks for three years at just 0.25%.
So right now and given the expected and still unfolding hit to the global and Australian economies from coronavirus related shutdowns the RBA is basically in a wait and see mode.
The Bank reiterated that it has scaled back the size of its bond purchases as the 3 year bond yield is around its target of 0.25% and as the functioning of the bond market has improved.
So far it has purchased around $50 billion of bonds but has indicated that it's prepared to scale them up again to do “whatever is necessary” to ensure functional bond markets and achieve the 3 year yield target.
It also announced a slight broadening in the range of corporate debt that it is prepared to accept as collateral as part of its open market operations.
RBA Governor Lowe restated the base case Australian economic forecasts that he first ran through in his 21stApril speech.
These basically see a 10% hit to growth in the first half of the year with around a 6% decline in GDP for 2020 as a whole, followed by 6% growth next year, unemployment to peak at around 10% in coming months and still be above 7% by end 2021, and inflation going negative in the current quarter and remaining below 2% over the next few years.
These are fairly similar to our own forecasts and assume some easing in the lockdown in the months ahead. 
The RBA repeated its commitment to do “what it can” to support jobs, incomes and businesses and affirmed that it will “not increase the cash rate until progress is made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3% target band.”
For those focussed on the RBA’s cash rate, the next few years are likely to be pretty boring.
The cash rate is at the RBA’s long stated lower bound and there is no value in taking it negative, so it won’t be cut any further.
And in the meantime, we are yet to see the full extent of the hit to the economy from the coronavirus related shutdowns and it will take several years to fully recover so a rate hike is years away.
We expect the cash rate to be stuck at 0.25% for at least the next three years.
The extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy response seen from March won’t stop the hit to the economy from the shutdowns and a sharp rise in unemployment, but they should help minimise the fall out in terms of jobs, incomes and businesses such that we can recover more quickly once the virus is better controlled.
Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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Cash rate to stay at 0.25% until at least 2023: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With the unemployment rate unlikely to fall below 6% and central banks unconvinced about any urgent need to be pre-emptive the cash rate target is likely to hold at 0.25% at least until end of 2023. However the RBA can remain an effective force in the Policy debate through its management of the three year bond yield target.
On Tuesday the Reserve Bank Governor Lowe made a major speech where he outlined the Bank’s key economic forecasts.
These forecasts are based on the Bank’s central outlook for the policy response to the Covid Crisis whereby domestic shutdowns are gradually eased through the June and September quarters and “mostly removed by late in the year”.
Westpac released forecasts on March 31 where the central outlook for the Crisis was similar to the Bank’s central view.
We are encouraged that our forecasts are broadly in line with the forecasts the Governor released in his speech. Westpac forecast that the economy would contract by around 9.5% in the first half of 2020 (RBA minus 10%); the economy would contract by 5% over 2020 (RBA minus 6%); the unemployment rate would lift to 9% by end June (RBA 10%); implying that growth would bounce back by 4–5% in the second half of 2020, (RBA similar).
We do however differ with the RBA’s forecast for growth in 2021 with the RBA forecasting 6–7% and Westpac at 4%.
It appears that, next year, we are heading for a repeat of the last few years when RBA growth forecasts were consistently significantly above our own forecasts. That bullish view is despite the observation that “the twin health and economic emergencies that we are experiencing now will cast a shadow over our economy for some time to come”.
The other key observation was around the outlook for interest rates. The Governor indicated that he expected the three year bond target to remain in place for a “number of years”.
He also reiterated that the cash rate target would not be lifted before the three year bond yield target was lifted.
The choice of the three year bond target rate as the same as the cash rate target is strategic since it sends a clear message that if the Bank is prepared to purchase three year bonds at the overnight cash rate it is reasonable to expect that it is comfortable with the cash rate holding at 0.25% for the full three years.
This does not mean that it cannot lift the rate for the bond yield target. A higher target rate would imply that the Bank now expects the cash rate to be lifted within the three year window therefore signalling an appropriately tighter monetary policy.
A lift in the target rate would see the market’s timing for the cash rate increase brought forward and the arbitrage between swap markets and the bond rate would pin point that expected timing.
BILL EVANS is the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42804/16785/" target="_blank">Chief Economist at Westpac</a>
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RBA likely to hold cash rate at 0.25% till 2023: Bill Evans

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Economists are highly divided on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made the right number of cuts to the cash rate last year, according to the latest Finder survey.
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, when asked if the RBA was right to make 3 cuts in 2019, only half of the respondents to this question said it made the right call (50%,13/26).
Of the other half of experts who disagreed with the Reserve Bank's decisions, most (42%, 11/26) said the RBA should have cut less.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the RBA’s decisions will never please everybody.
“On the one hand, some experts say the cutting was 'overzealous' and is seeing house prices soar while most economic metrics have been stagnant."
“Others think the RBA hasn’t done enough to repair the economy in light of lagging employment and inflation figures."
“One thing is clear: three cuts have reignited the housing market and pumped up property prices across the country."
“With more cuts on the horizon, it remains to be seen whether cheaper credit and lower rates will be an elixir or a poison pill," he said."
RBA cash rate expected to hold
Nearly 9 in 10 experts and economists predict the RBA will hold the cash rate in February (87%, 34/39) with just 13% expecting a cut.
The experts predicting a cut cited the bushfires, weak wage growth, low inflation and high unemployment as the main issues necessitating an easing.
Besa Deda of St.George Economics said; “In the absence of wage pressures, inflation remains well below target. More stimulus is required to return growth to trend.”
Cooke noted the forecast for a rate cut in February dropped from 66% before the December meeting to just 13% this month.
Nearly 4 out of 5 who made a forward prediction (not including February) forecast a cash rate drop by May 2020 (79%, 23/29).
A quarter of experts predict a cut in March (24%, 7/29), while nearly a third predict a cut in April (31%, 9/29). Another quarter predict a cut in May (24%, 7/29).
Only 2 of the 39 experts (5%) on the panel thought the eventual move, whenever it happens, would be a rise.
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Half surveyed experts think RBA went wrong with rate cuts: Finder Survey

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Governor Phillip Lowe has laid out in very clear terms the circumstances in which the bank would resort to quantitative easing and the way in which it would implement it.
Quantitative easing is simply a change in the way it eases monetary policy when the official interest rate approaches zero.
Usually it does it by cutting the so-called <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/how-rba-implements-monetary-policy" target="_blank">cash rate</a>, which is the rate banks pay each other for money deposited overnight.
Eight years ago the cash rate was 4.5%. Three years ago it was 1.5%. After the most recent three cuts in June, July and October, it is just 0.75%
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303837/original/file-20191126-112484-iegrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303837/original/file-20191126-112484-iegrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank">Source: RBA</a>
Last night, Governor Lowe said the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-11-26" target="_blank">effective lower bound was 0.25%</a>. Rather than let the cash rate get any lower or negative (an option he explicitly ruled out), the bank will push down other longer-term rates by buying government bonds.
It’s the “quantitative easing” approach adopted by the US Federal Reserve between 2009 and 2014.
Government bonds are sold by governments in return for money, a means of borrowing. The buyer gets guaranteed interest payments and a guarantee that their money will be returned in full after three, five, 10 or even 20 years depending on the length of the bond.
Once issued, bonds can be traded on a market, and the price at which they change hands can be expressed as an implied interest rate, which becomes the risk-free rate against which all other interest rates are benchmarked.
How quantitative easing would work
Buying bonds from investors would push down that risk-free rate, pushing down the entire structure of long-term interest rates.
All other things being equal, this should also push down the exchange rate by reducing the return on Australian dollar denominated financial investments.
Governor Lowe indicated he might buy state government bonds as well as Commonwealth bonds.
Importantly, he argued that although the bank would be mindful of the need to ensure private banks had enough access to the bonds they needed to hold for regulatory purposes, those holdings would not be an impediment to quantitative easing.
He ruled out buying residential mortgage-backed securities and other private assets given that those markets are currently functioning well and Reserve Bank purchases could distort them.
The approach borrows heavily from the US Fed.
As in the US, Lowe says quantitative easing would be complemented by “forward guidance”, where the Reserve Bank would signal early how long-term interest rates would be kept low and the circumstances in which it expected to raise them again.
The guidance is designed to influence market expectations for future interest rates, enhancing the effectiveness of cuts in long term interest rates.
When it would happen
In addition to “how”, Governor Lowe spelled out “when” – the economic circumstances in which the bank would resort to quantitative easing.
It would do it when the cash rate was at 0.25% and inflation and unemployment were moving away from its objectives.
The bank targets 2-3% inflation on average over time and has recently identified 4.5% as the “full employment” unemployment rate.
Importantly, Lowe emphasised that the Australian economy has not yet reached the point where a cash rate as low as 0.25% would be needed and argued quantitative easing was unlikely to be needed in future.
The cash rate is at present 0.75%. Setting 0.25% as the effective lower bound gives the Governor 0.5 percentage points left to cut before implementing quantitative easing.
Implicitly, Governor Lowe is saying that those cuts of 0.5 percentage points will be enough to stabilise the economy.
A pause for a breath at 0.25%
Lowe also indicated the bank would not seamlessly transition to quantitative easing.
He implied there was an additional hurdle or threshold that would need to be crossed, suggesting he would be reluctant to make the transition.
His big problem is that neither inflation nor the unemployment rate are moving in the right direction.
The bank has undershot its inflation target since the end of 2014, giving the economy a weak starting point going into an emerging global downturn.
My <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">research</a> on the US experience for the United States Studies Centre shows that the main problem with is quantitative easing was that it was not done soon enough or aggressively enough.
It might be better to be bold
While quantitative easing was effective, it could have been made more so had what was going to happen been made clearer.
The Fed went out of its way to limit the transmission of quantitative easing to the rest of the economy, fearful it would be too potent and lead to excessive inflation.
Those concerns proved misplaced. By pulling its punches, the Fed ended up being less effective and having to pursue quantitative easing for longer than if it had used it more aggressively.
Governor Lowe’s very obvious reluctance to go down the quantitative easing route suggests the Reserve Bank is in danger of making the same mistake, but it is not too late to learn from what happened in the US.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127697/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Stephen Kirchner, Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-we-know-the-reserve-bank-has-spelled-out-what-it-will-do-when-rates-approach-zero-127697" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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