Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

cash rate

Almost three-quarters of variable borrowers who asked for a rate cut, got one, a new survey has found.&nbsp;

In a RateCity.com.au survey of over 1,000 mortgage holders, of those on a variable rate, 52 per cent haggled with their bank for a lower rate. Over 73 per cent of these people were successful in getting at least one rate cut.

A rate reduction of 0.25 per cent could save the average mortgage holder $1,241 in interest after one year and $3,656 after three years. This is based on a $500,000 loan balance with 25 years remaining.

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29048 project_image_fid=151675]

RateCity.com.au home loan database analysis:

<ul>
	<li>49 lenders have cut at least one variable rate in the past two months.</li>
	<li>10 lenders have hiked variable rates in that time.</li>
	<li>The vast majority of variable rate cuts are reserved for new customers, not existing ones.</li>
</ul>

RateCity research director, Sally Tindall, said while the RBA is not expected to move the cash rate tomorrow, one phone call could potentially save the average variable rate mortgage holder thousands.

&ldquo;Variable rates are at record lows, however, most of these deals are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, unless you specifically ask,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;A lot of people think a handful of basis points won&rsquo;t make much of a difference, but if the discount is permanent, then the savings can potentially run into the thousands in just a few years.&quot;

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market

jordan_55689

Three out of four mortgage holders who asked for a rate cut, got one: RateCity 

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The RBA kept the official cash rate on hold, but that hasn’t stopped banks from moving home loan rates. 
  
While lenders have made a flurry of cuts to 2- and 3-year fixed rates in the last month, there has been an increase in the number of lenders hiking 4-year fixed rates. 
  
Analysis of the RateCity.com.au database shows 11 lenders have raised 4-year fixed rates, including CBA, Bendigo Bank and Aussie Home Loans, while only two have cut them. 
  
So why are 2-year fixed rates still dropping and 4-year rates rising?

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772] 
  
The RBA is helping facilitate the ultra-low fixed rates, in part, via its term funding facility, which allows banks to borrow money at a three-year fixed rate of 0.10 per cent. 
  
Over the last month, the majority of one- to three-year fixed rate changes have been cuts, not hikes, as lenders make the most of the low-cost funding available. 
  
However, in the last month the majority of four-year fixed rates changes were in the opposite direction as some banks start to factor in a likely rise to the cash rate in 2024 and the end of the RBA’s term funding facility on 30 June this year. 
  
The big question is whether Westpac will hike its four-year rate. Australia’s second largest bank currently has the lowest four-year fixed rate in the market. Hiking this rate could lose the bank its competitive edge in this category.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=26730] 
  
Watching these four-year rates come off the table has some people panicked they will miss the bottom. Just because these rates could be soon rise, doesn’t mean you should rush out and fix for the next four years. 
  
If you are looking to refinance, work out what type of mortgage suits your finances. 

Then shop around for a competitive rate, not the other way around.

Sally Tindall is RateCity.com.au research director
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Work out what type of mortgage suits your finances, then shop around for a competitive rate, not the other way around

Why are 2-year fixed rates still dropping and 4-year rates rising? Sally Tindall

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EXPERT INSIGHT

After years of repeatedly <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574">missing its inflation target</a> through too timid monetary policy, in the past week the Reserve Bank has decided to get tough.

Not only did it hold its closely watched <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a> target steady at 0.10% at Tuesday’s board meeting, it ramped up its efforts to defend its separate 0.10% target for the three-year government bond rate in the face of a mini-revolt by bond traders.

A few weeks back, some of the traders in Australia and elsewhere got it into their heads that big borrowing by governments would force up bond rates - a relationship that was once thought to be clear cut but hasn’t held for some time.

The traders sold government bonds issued by Australia and other nations, which in the case of the bond market, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/07/price_yield.asp">forces up the bond interest rate</a>.

Then other traders piled on, partly because economic outlooks are improving and they thought governments might soon be issuing fewer bonds, and partly because they thought other traders might agree with the traders.

That’s right: “thought other traders might agree with the traders”.

<h2>Beauty contests can make markets mad</h2>

In financial markets you don’t make money by correctly guessing what will happen, you make it by correctly guessing what other traders think will happen.

One of the founders of modern economics, John Maynard Keynes, described it as a beauty contest in which judges are rewarded not for picking the most beautiful face, but for picking the face <a href="https://www.zeninvestor.org/keynesian-beauty-contest/">other judges</a> will think is the most beautiful.

It’s like the rules in <a href="https://www.liveabout.com/family-feud-brief-overview-1396911">Family Feud</a>.

The yield on Australian Commonwealth 10-year bonds climbed from 0.98% at the start of the year to 1.11% a month later, to an extraordinary 1.87% a month after that - a near-doubling in a matter of weeks.

Even the yield on three-year bonds, which the Reserve Bank has pledged to keep at <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">0.10%</a> crept up to 0.13%.

Last Friday, the Reserve Bank fought back.

It bought extra bonds a day after completing its usual purchases on Thursday.

This Tuesday, in its statement after its monthly board meeting, it added nine words to its usual acknowledgement that “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-01">wage and price pressures remain subdued</a>”.

Those words were: “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">and are expected to remain so for some years</a>”.

And then it released a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/announcements/rba-purchases-of-government-securities-2021-03">separate statement</a> reiterating that when its A$100 billion program of buying $5 billion of government bonds each week expires in May it will launch another $100 billion program, taking the scheduled bond buying through to November.

Since the program began last November, the bank has bought $74 billion of bonds. Its message was that if traders thought it was within $26 billion of running out of ammunition, it had another $100 billion. It doubled <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-M8e1YYiQg">the size of its knife</a>.

The bank can’t afford to lose

Keeping control of rates is a fight the Reserve Bank has to win. When it announces a change in an interest rate, usually the <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a>, it uses words along the lines of “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-06">the board decided to lower the cash rate</a>,” implying that it can.

The more accurate words it <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2001/mr-01-17">used to use</a> were “the bank will be operating in the money market this morning to reduce the cash rate,” an admission that it could only try to move the cash rate, by trading in financial instruments.

So effective have its pronouncements become that in recent years it hasn’t needed to do much trading to move the cash rate - it has just announced the move knowing that traders will fall into line because it could buy or sell financial instruments if it wanted to.

If it loses a battle with traders over rates, what it says will have much less force.

It has the resources it needs to win

The bank will win whatever battle it chooses to fight because it has unlimited resources. Unlike traders, it can <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/unconventional-monetary-policy">create</a> as many Australian dollars as it needs in order to buy as many bonds as it needs.

So far it has chosen to defend its ground on the cash rate and the three-year bond rate. It wants both at 0.1%.

It said on Tuesday it would “not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range”.

It added that for that to occur, wage growth will have to be “materially higher”, which would require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market.

And then the killer sentence, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">the last</a>, aimed directly at the traders: “The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.”

Although it released the statement one day before Wednesday’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/gdp-is-v-shaped-but-not-yet-good-these-three-graphs-tell-the-story-156372">national accounts</a> that showed the economic recovery continuing, it would have been aware of what they were likely to show.

It remains resolute.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156410/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" t1tcsswdv="" width="1">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-in-the-battle-over-interest-rates-itd-be-unwise-to-bet-against-the-rba-156410">original article</a>.
</body></html>

In the battle over interest rates, it'd be unwise to bet against the RBA: Richard Holden

<html><body>
Experts and economists are united in their view that the RBA will hold the cash rate this month, with only one prediction for any movements at all in 2021, according to the latest survey from Finder.com.au.

Tony Makin of Griffith University, believes the rate will increase this year due to the economic effects of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout.

“Global economic activity will pick up as countries are vaccinated. Given the expansion in money supplies, other things equal this will put upward pressure on inflation. Otherwise, macroeconomics textbooks need to be rewritten. 

“At the same time, record-breaking levels of public debt worldwide will continue to exert upward pressure on bond yields," Makin said.

Shane Oliver from AMP Capital said that while the economy has recovered faster than expected, the RBA is still a long way away from meeting its inflation and employment goals. 

“A rate hike is still a long way away. 

“That said, the faster than expected recovery will likely see the first hike occur earlier than the RBA's expectation of ‘no increase before 2024’. It could come late next year or early 2023," Oliver said.

Positive sentiment around both housing affordability (3%) and cost of living (3%) reached the lowest level ever recorded since the Finder survey began in 2018.

Employment continued to be the highest indicator measured with 55% expressing positive sentiment, down from its record-high of 73% last month.

Positive sentiment around employment plummeted to 0% in April when the lockdowns first began, but the nation’s stronger-than-expected economic recovery has resulted in a rosier outlook for the job market. 
</body></html>

Experts and economists are united in their view that the RBA will hold the cash rate this month, with only one prediction for any movements at all in 2021

Experts and economists forecast a cash rate lockdown until 2022

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER

The Reserve Bank (RBA) has left the target rates for both the cash rate and 3-year government bond yield at 0.10 per cent. The RBA will purchase an additional $100 billion of bonds issued by the Australian Government and states and territories when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid-April. 
 

<h2>What has changed since the last RBA Board meeting on December 1?</h2>

• Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th US President.

• ANZ job advertisements rose by 2.3 per cent in January to 161,582 available positions. Ads have lifted for eight successive months to be up 5.3 per cent from a year ago.

• Employment rose by 50,000 in December after increasing by 90,000 jobs in November. Full-time jobs rose by 35,700 and part-time jobs rose by 14,300. The unemployment rate fell from 6.8 per cent to 6.6 per cent in December.

• Preliminary retail trade fell 4.2 per cent in December (9.4 per cent annual) after rising 7.1 per cent in November.

• The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose to a 15-month high.

• The NAB business confidence index fell from a 31-month high of +12.7 points to +4.5 points in December. But the business conditions index lifted from +7.0 points to 28-month highs of +14.2 points.

• The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to expand by 5.5 per cent in 2021, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the October 2020 forecast.

• The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.9 per cent in the December quarter to be up by 0.9 per cent on the year. The trimmed mean (underlying) measure rose 0.4 per cent in the quarter to be up 1.2 per cent on the year.

• Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) rose by 0.3 per cent in December to be up 1.8 per cent over the year.

• In the full twelve months to December the underlying Commonwealth Government cash balance was $186,120 million (9.5 per cent of GDP). The budget deficit for the six months to December was $9.5 billion lower than the ‘profile’ deficit.

• A retail trading frenzy for highly shorted stocks led to volatility on global sharemarkets and spilled over into the silver market.

• The Aussie dollar has lifted from US73-74 cents to US75-77 cents.

<h2>The Assessment</h2>

The Reserve Bank Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate until 2024 “at the earliest”. The first Tuesday in the month will never be the same.

<img alt="" height="436" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-02-02_at_3.16.43_pm.png" width="620">

<h2>Perspectives on interest rates</h2>

The Reserve Bank left the cash rate at 0.10 per cent after cutting the rate from 0.25 per cent on November 3. The RBA previously cut the cash rate on March 3 and March 19, 2020, each by 25 basis points. The target rate for 3-year bond yields was left at 0.10 per cent.

On November 3 the RBA cut the 3-year bond target from 0.25 per cent to 0.10 per cent. The RBA implemented the 0.25 per cent target rate for 3-year bond yields on March 19, 2020. There have been 18 cash rate cuts since November 2011 with the cash rate cut from 4.75 per cent. Previously cash rates rose seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.

<h2>What are the implications of RBA's decision?</h2>

• The Reserve Bank used the word, “strong”, five times in the statement. The economic recovery, employment and retail spending were all described as “strong”.

• The Reserve Bank Governor will go into more depth about the economic recovery in a speech tomorrow. Further, Governor Lowe gives testimony to the House of Representatives Economics Committee on Friday. On the same day the RBA issues the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy that includes the latest forecasts. We received some inkling of the forecasts today: “In underlying terms, inflation is expected to be 11⁄4 per cent over 2021 and 11⁄2 per cent over 2022.”; “the central scenario is for unemployment to be around 6 per cent at the end of this year and 51⁄2 per cent at the end of 2022.”; the central scenario being for GDP to grow by 31⁄2 per cent over both 2021 and 2022.

• The Reserve Bank Board’s central scenario requires significant job gains and a return to a tight labour market to stoke inflation. And that is not expected until 2024 at the earliest.
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The RBA has left the target rates for both the cash rate and 3-year government bond yield at 0.10 per cent, with an increase not expected until 2024 "at the earliest"

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RBA interest rates - Set the watch for 2024: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>A double-shot Friday, with speeches from both Reserve Bank Governor Lowe and Assistant Governor Luci Ellis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lowe's speech effectively confirmed that the inflation target is asymmetric.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although 'committed' to the 2 to 3 per cent inflation target, the next move in interest rates will be up, he noted, even though inflation is yet again set to fall below the target. As energy and fuel price pressures ease the rate of inflation will likely drop over the second half of the year. That's good to the extent that it eases pressure on household budgets, of course. But, in the spirit of Mr. Micawber, it is hoped that eventually inflation will pick up again. Amazon might have something to say about that as retail price deflation again rears its head. Rates on hold
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether you agree or otherwise, at least it's been made clear: the cash rate is going to be set at 1.5 per cent for a long time! Probably a very long time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lowe also delivered an interesting interpretation of housing credit dynamics, noting that the slowing of the housing market had reduced demand for credit by investors, in doing so citing low mortgage rates as evidence that the reduced supply of credit has not been the main story.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The plural of anecdote is not data, but that's not quite the feedback we've been getting from mortgage brokers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Semantics, maybe, given the reflexive nature of such things.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Luci on lags</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Assistant Governor Ellis also presented an interesting speech on lags, showing how the unemployment rate has been improving (if not very much for the long term unemployed).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No arguments there, although building permits are now falling away outside Melbourne (OK, and Hobart), while money growth is now at the lowest level in more than a quarter of a century. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If those weak leading indicators persist, then eventually the economy will start to slow too...yes, it's those pesky lags again!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Maybe that's already happening, according to the timeliest business surveys.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force figures released this week also showed that the growth in hours worked is already on the way down. </div>
 
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kDmz34Ipxs0/W3dJwWlfd7I/AAAAAAAArlU/3SWaE5U_PZwsGrTrZ21uEB5LO6qLF99oACLcBGAs/s1600/a1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kDmz34Ipxs0/W3dJwWlfd7I/AAAAAAAArlU/3SWaE5U_PZwsGrTrZ21uEB5LO6qLF99oACLcBGAs/s640/a1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1342"></a></div>
Long story short, inflation is low because the economy remains well below its full capacity.
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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The cash rate is going to be locked at 1.5 per cent for a very long time: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
As widely expected, at its May meeting the RBA made no further changes to monetary policy having undertaken a substantial easing in March via a cut in the cash rate to 0.25%, targeting the three year bond yield at 0.25% to be supported by quantitative easing and providing funding to the banks for three years at just 0.25%.
So right now and given the expected and still unfolding hit to the global and Australian economies from coronavirus related shutdowns the RBA is basically in a wait and see mode.
The Bank reiterated that it has scaled back the size of its bond purchases as the 3 year bond yield is around its target of 0.25% and as the functioning of the bond market has improved.
So far it has purchased around $50 billion of bonds but has indicated that it's prepared to scale them up again to do “whatever is necessary” to ensure functional bond markets and achieve the 3 year yield target.
It also announced a slight broadening in the range of corporate debt that it is prepared to accept as collateral as part of its open market operations.
RBA Governor Lowe restated the base case Australian economic forecasts that he first ran through in his 21stApril speech.
These basically see a 10% hit to growth in the first half of the year with around a 6% decline in GDP for 2020 as a whole, followed by 6% growth next year, unemployment to peak at around 10% in coming months and still be above 7% by end 2021, and inflation going negative in the current quarter and remaining below 2% over the next few years.
These are fairly similar to our own forecasts and assume some easing in the lockdown in the months ahead. 
The RBA repeated its commitment to do “what it can” to support jobs, incomes and businesses and affirmed that it will “not increase the cash rate until progress is made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3% target band.”
For those focussed on the RBA’s cash rate, the next few years are likely to be pretty boring.
The cash rate is at the RBA’s long stated lower bound and there is no value in taking it negative, so it won’t be cut any further.
And in the meantime, we are yet to see the full extent of the hit to the economy from the coronavirus related shutdowns and it will take several years to fully recover so a rate hike is years away.
We expect the cash rate to be stuck at 0.25% for at least the next three years.
The extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy response seen from March won’t stop the hit to the economy from the shutdowns and a sharp rise in unemployment, but they should help minimise the fall out in terms of jobs, incomes and businesses such that we can recover more quickly once the virus is better controlled.
Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital
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Cash rate to stay at 0.25% until at least 2023: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With the unemployment rate unlikely to fall below 6% and central banks unconvinced about any urgent need to be pre-emptive the cash rate target is likely to hold at 0.25% at least until end of 2023. However the RBA can remain an effective force in the Policy debate through its management of the three year bond yield target.
On Tuesday the Reserve Bank Governor Lowe made a major speech where he outlined the Bank’s key economic forecasts.
These forecasts are based on the Bank’s central outlook for the policy response to the Covid Crisis whereby domestic shutdowns are gradually eased through the June and September quarters and “mostly removed by late in the year”.
Westpac released forecasts on March 31 where the central outlook for the Crisis was similar to the Bank’s central view.
We are encouraged that our forecasts are broadly in line with the forecasts the Governor released in his speech. Westpac forecast that the economy would contract by around 9.5% in the first half of 2020 (RBA minus 10%); the economy would contract by 5% over 2020 (RBA minus 6%); the unemployment rate would lift to 9% by end June (RBA 10%); implying that growth would bounce back by 4–5% in the second half of 2020, (RBA similar).
We do however differ with the RBA’s forecast for growth in 2021 with the RBA forecasting 6–7% and Westpac at 4%.
It appears that, next year, we are heading for a repeat of the last few years when RBA growth forecasts were consistently significantly above our own forecasts. That bullish view is despite the observation that “the twin health and economic emergencies that we are experiencing now will cast a shadow over our economy for some time to come”.
The other key observation was around the outlook for interest rates. The Governor indicated that he expected the three year bond target to remain in place for a “number of years”.
He also reiterated that the cash rate target would not be lifted before the three year bond yield target was lifted.
The choice of the three year bond target rate as the same as the cash rate target is strategic since it sends a clear message that if the Bank is prepared to purchase three year bonds at the overnight cash rate it is reasonable to expect that it is comfortable with the cash rate holding at 0.25% for the full three years.
This does not mean that it cannot lift the rate for the bond yield target. A higher target rate would imply that the Bank now expects the cash rate to be lifted within the three year window therefore signalling an appropriately tighter monetary policy.
A lift in the target rate would see the market’s timing for the cash rate increase brought forward and the arbitrage between swap markets and the bond rate would pin point that expected timing.
BILL EVANS is the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42804/16785/" target="_blank">Chief Economist at Westpac</a>
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RBA likely to hold cash rate at 0.25% till 2023: Bill Evans

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Economists are highly divided on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made the right number of cuts to the cash rate last year, according to the latest Finder survey.
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, when asked if the RBA was right to make 3 cuts in 2019, only half of the respondents to this question said it made the right call (50%,13/26).
Of the other half of experts who disagreed with the Reserve Bank's decisions, most (42%, 11/26) said the RBA should have cut less.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the RBA’s decisions will never please everybody.
“On the one hand, some experts say the cutting was 'overzealous' and is seeing house prices soar while most economic metrics have been stagnant."
“Others think the RBA hasn’t done enough to repair the economy in light of lagging employment and inflation figures."
“One thing is clear: three cuts have reignited the housing market and pumped up property prices across the country."
“With more cuts on the horizon, it remains to be seen whether cheaper credit and lower rates will be an elixir or a poison pill," he said."
RBA cash rate expected to hold
Nearly 9 in 10 experts and economists predict the RBA will hold the cash rate in February (87%, 34/39) with just 13% expecting a cut.
The experts predicting a cut cited the bushfires, weak wage growth, low inflation and high unemployment as the main issues necessitating an easing.
Besa Deda of St.George Economics said; “In the absence of wage pressures, inflation remains well below target. More stimulus is required to return growth to trend.”
Cooke noted the forecast for a rate cut in February dropped from 66% before the December meeting to just 13% this month.
Nearly 4 out of 5 who made a forward prediction (not including February) forecast a cash rate drop by May 2020 (79%, 23/29).
A quarter of experts predict a cut in March (24%, 7/29), while nearly a third predict a cut in April (31%, 9/29). Another quarter predict a cut in May (24%, 7/29).
Only 2 of the 39 experts (5%) on the panel thought the eventual move, whenever it happens, would be a rise.
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Half surveyed experts think RBA went wrong with rate cuts: Finder Survey

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Governor Phillip Lowe has laid out in very clear terms the circumstances in which the bank would resort to quantitative easing and the way in which it would implement it.
Quantitative easing is simply a change in the way it eases monetary policy when the official interest rate approaches zero.
Usually it does it by cutting the so-called <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/how-rba-implements-monetary-policy" target="_blank">cash rate</a>, which is the rate banks pay each other for money deposited overnight.
Eight years ago the cash rate was 4.5%. Three years ago it was 1.5%. After the most recent three cuts in June, July and October, it is just 0.75%
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303837/original/file-20191126-112484-iegrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303837/original/file-20191126-112484-iegrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank">Source: RBA</a>
Last night, Governor Lowe said the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-11-26" target="_blank">effective lower bound was 0.25%</a>. Rather than let the cash rate get any lower or negative (an option he explicitly ruled out), the bank will push down other longer-term rates by buying government bonds.
It’s the “quantitative easing” approach adopted by the US Federal Reserve between 2009 and 2014.
Government bonds are sold by governments in return for money, a means of borrowing. The buyer gets guaranteed interest payments and a guarantee that their money will be returned in full after three, five, 10 or even 20 years depending on the length of the bond.
Once issued, bonds can be traded on a market, and the price at which they change hands can be expressed as an implied interest rate, which becomes the risk-free rate against which all other interest rates are benchmarked.
How quantitative easing would work
Buying bonds from investors would push down that risk-free rate, pushing down the entire structure of long-term interest rates.
All other things being equal, this should also push down the exchange rate by reducing the return on Australian dollar denominated financial investments.
Governor Lowe indicated he might buy state government bonds as well as Commonwealth bonds.
Importantly, he argued that although the bank would be mindful of the need to ensure private banks had enough access to the bonds they needed to hold for regulatory purposes, those holdings would not be an impediment to quantitative easing.
He ruled out buying residential mortgage-backed securities and other private assets given that those markets are currently functioning well and Reserve Bank purchases could distort them.
The approach borrows heavily from the US Fed.
As in the US, Lowe says quantitative easing would be complemented by “forward guidance”, where the Reserve Bank would signal early how long-term interest rates would be kept low and the circumstances in which it expected to raise them again.
The guidance is designed to influence market expectations for future interest rates, enhancing the effectiveness of cuts in long term interest rates.
When it would happen
In addition to “how”, Governor Lowe spelled out “when” – the economic circumstances in which the bank would resort to quantitative easing.
It would do it when the cash rate was at 0.25% and inflation and unemployment were moving away from its objectives.
The bank targets 2-3% inflation on average over time and has recently identified 4.5% as the “full employment” unemployment rate.
Importantly, Lowe emphasised that the Australian economy has not yet reached the point where a cash rate as low as 0.25% would be needed and argued quantitative easing was unlikely to be needed in future.
The cash rate is at present 0.75%. Setting 0.25% as the effective lower bound gives the Governor 0.5 percentage points left to cut before implementing quantitative easing.
Implicitly, Governor Lowe is saying that those cuts of 0.5 percentage points will be enough to stabilise the economy.
A pause for a breath at 0.25%
Lowe also indicated the bank would not seamlessly transition to quantitative easing.
He implied there was an additional hurdle or threshold that would need to be crossed, suggesting he would be reluctant to make the transition.
His big problem is that neither inflation nor the unemployment rate are moving in the right direction.
The bank has undershot its inflation target since the end of 2014, giving the economy a weak starting point going into an emerging global downturn.
My <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">research</a> on the US experience for the United States Studies Centre shows that the main problem with is quantitative easing was that it was not done soon enough or aggressively enough.
It might be better to be bold
While quantitative easing was effective, it could have been made more so had what was going to happen been made clearer.
The Fed went out of its way to limit the transmission of quantitative easing to the rest of the economy, fearful it would be too potent and lead to excessive inflation.
Those concerns proved misplaced. By pulling its punches, the Fed ended up being less effective and having to pursue quantitative easing for longer than if it had used it more aggressively.
Governor Lowe’s very obvious reluctance to go down the quantitative easing route suggests the Reserve Bank is in danger of making the same mistake, but it is not too late to learn from what happened in the US.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127697/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Stephen Kirchner, Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-we-know-the-reserve-bank-has-spelled-out-what-it-will-do-when-rates-approach-zero-127697" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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