Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

Joel Robinson

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

The Gold Coast Planning Committee has supported the preliminary approval for the Benowa Gardens Urban Village project following an extensive community consultation and assessment process.

The proposal will now proceed to a full council vote on June 2.

The application sought approval for a masterplanned urban village on the existing Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre site, combining new housing, retail, dining, health and lifestyle amenities within a walkable, integrated precinct.&nbsp;

The proposed redevelopment includes around 413 apartments integrated above a revitalised mixed-use centre featuring a full-line supermarket of 4,000 sqm, 6,000 sqm of specialty retail and dining space across around 30 retailers, a 7,000 sqm health and wellness precinct, and roughly 9,630 sqm of office and medical suites.&nbsp;

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fb36ae47-80bc-45f0-9914-31b0c7b6007d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C4%201121%20FI.jpg?VersionId=6mRKk2uU4r67TmTt39DKGUlvFRbTVqWa" />

The broader masterplan also includes very significant traffic and transport improvements, wide pedestrian walkways, upgraded pedestrian and cycle connections, and enhanced public areas designed to create a more connected and walkable community environment.&nbsp;

Centre owner Patrick Lu said the milestone reflected months of detailed planning, technical assessment and ongoing communication with local residents, businesses, schools and stakeholders.

“We appreciate the time, consideration and care Council officers and the Planning Committee have given this proposal throughout the assessment process,” Lu said.

“We also sincerely thank the local community for engaging with us, sharing feedback and participating in the consultation process over many months.

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32fd1fc3-d0e6-485f-ac57-9916c9bcb818" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C5%201121%20FI_2.jpg?VersionId=fz8qQKDBLQ7MyFRc856Zccfbh9nFwLOe" />

“We understand projects of this scale bring questions and concerns, which is why we have worked hard to listen carefully, provide information transparently and continue refining elements of the proposal where possible.

“Our vision has always been to create a well-designed, community-focused urban village that responds to the changing needs of the Gold Coast, while delivering improved amenity, housing diversity, healthcare access and local lifestyle benefits.

“This proposal is about creating a genuine live-work-play environment where residents can access everyday services, schools, healthcare, dining, shopping and green space within walking distance, while also supporting local jobs and economic activity.”

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="50dfbd04-590e-4fc6-983b-766880947867" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Dining%20Day%20Time%20-%20High%20Resolution.jpg?VersionId=BP7ZoKJ0DdL_8iRkkC8VVx99moICV6kg" />

Lu said the proposal had evolved significantly through consultation and technical review, particularly around traffic, pedestrian and student safety and neighbourhood connectivity.&nbsp;

Melissa Griffin, Director at Urbis, said the recommendation recognised the strategic importance of delivering more housing and services within established urban areas already supported by infrastructure.

“This proposal represents the type of thoughtful, integrated growth that planning frameworks across South-East Queensland are encouraging,” Ms Griffin said.

“The project seeks to place housing, retail, healthcare and employment opportunities together in a highly accessible location close to schools, transport and existing services.

“Importantly, the process has involved significant technical assessment and community engagement to ensure local issues and feedback were properly considered throughout the planning pathway.”

$1 billion Benowa Gardens Urban Village heads to council vote following Planning Committee support

Surfers Paradise is officially set for its first new residential development with a 45-storey skybridge connecting the two towers.

John Camilleri’s Celestino Developments has been given the green light by the Gold Coast City Council to develop its major beachfront precinct across its huge 4,000 sqm oceanfront site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">63–79 Garfield Terrace</a>, just five months after its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-exclusive-billionaire-winx-breeder-s-bold-two-tower-surfers-paradise-play-with-45th-storey-skybridge">submission in late 2025</a>.

The approved scheme will deliver two towers rising 55 and 48 storeys, connected by a skybridge positioned on level 45 that will house a range of resident-only wellness and entertainment spaces.

In its notice of approval, the Gold Coast City Council said the&nbsp;proposed overall built form has been designed to complement the scale, intensity and protect the adjacent amenity and surrounding streets through the use of varied setbacks, site cover and architectural elements.

<img alt="First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ADyPJ_TFbJvSU9wZFOiCBnlPtgF7VWqW" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dbi">DBI</a>, the development will comprise 275 apartments across the two towers, including a mix of two-, three-, and four-bedroom residences, as well as several penthouses. The apartments will sit above a landscaped podium featuring more than 90 metres of beachfront pool frontage, private resident lawns, lounges, and wellness spaces.

DBI said the design draws heavily from the movement and form of the coastal environment, with curving balcony lines and sculpted façades intended to soften the scale of the towers while maximising ocean outlooks and passive shading outcomes.

“The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience,” DBI said in planning documents submitted to the Gold Coast City Council.

The most distinctive element of the approved project is the skybridge linking the two towers at level 45. The elevated communal space is planned to include executive lounges, formal dining areas, wellness facilities, and panoramic ocean-facing outlooks.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI said.

At podium level, residents will have access to a suite of resort-style amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a yoga lawn, gymnasium, plunge pools, and treatment spaces. The beachfront pool has been designed with separate lap, lounge, and children’s areas extending across the width of the site.

The project will also introduce new food and beverage offerings along the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages, contributing additional activation to the beachfront precinct.

First look: Winx billionaire’s beachfront Surfers Paradise apartment development greenlit

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
A retail property in Sydney’s Chinatown has sold to a Hong Kong based family for $6.7 million through Knight Frank.
It was the first time the four level property had been offered to the market in more than 160 years.
The 489 square metre retail building at 713 George Street sits on a 272 square metre holding.
The property zoned allows for commercial/residential/hotel use to a potential 2,040sqm (subject to council approval).
Sales agents Andy Hu and Dominic Ong of Knight Frank said properties along George Street were rarely offered to the market, especially in the Chinatown precinct.
It was the fifth freehold property - sub $15 million - on George Street to have been publicly offered since 2010.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney Chinatown $6.7 million retail sale

<html><body>
Guest observation
Everyone is talking about a housing price bubble, particularly in Sydney, but is this really the case?
In my honest opinion, I think probably not at this stage. Although I do predict that we will see an influx of struggle-stories in the press.
It's safe to say that both Melbourne and Sydney markets are continuing with a strong growth pattern. Melbourne, in particular, documented a very strong capital growth rate throughout August at 2.31%. Sydney closely followed this at 1.52%.
The Sydney median house price now sits at a very high $852,500, which is getting closer and closer to that $1 million benchmark. So the question is, when do we expect to see our capitals hitting those million-dollar medians?
Million-dollar cities
Based on the historical data, our predicted growth rate for Sydney has been calculated at 5% for the next five years. This suggests that Sydney houses will hit the million-dollar value mark in three years. However, the predictions indicate that growth rates are going to slow in the short term, before increasing to 6% on average per annum towards the end of the next five years.
If the above scenario is the outcome, this would mean that Sydney would breach a million-dollar median value within five years, most likely during the first half of 2019. In Melbourne, a similar growth trend indicates that it will take ten years to reach a $1 million median, expected to occur during 2024.
Two million-dollar suburbs
Based on these predictions, in turn we expect that the number of suburbs with a median value of $2 million will increase. Today's figures show that there are currently 277 suburbs in Sydney with a median house value of over $1 million, with 41 of these currently breaching a $2 million median.
With this level of growth, we anticipate that by 2019 there will be 91 suburbs in Sydney with a median value in excess of $2 million. This suggests that around 9.5 per cent of the city will fall into this category, while the city portion that will fall under a $1 million house price median will be 43.25%t.
Australia's highest-value suburb, in terms of a median house price, is currently the eastern Sydney neighbourhood of Point Piper, where the current median sits at $8.099 million.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Unaffordability
Data shows that the Sydney market is slowing, although not as quickly as we would like it to. The current stance is that the level of unaffordability in the capital is now at historic highs, with loan repayments on a median house equating to approximately 54 per cent of an after-tax median salary.
These figures are extraordinarily high, which would usually send the market into retreat; although the fact that the market continues to display strong growth levels indicates that there is another issue.
I expect that this current level of unaffordability is causing the 'housing bubble' concerns. However, there is another potential explanation, and that is that the Sydney market purchasers have changed, so the affordability ratios are no longer valid simply because median income families are not buying the median income home.
Those who fall into the median income family bracket in Sydney are currently most likely to be renters, with the actual buyers being seasoned property investors with higher than average salaries. Median income families in Sydney are now buying on the city fringes where prices are currently more affordable.
Back to the bubble
Returning to the issue at hand, in my view, a housing bubble exists when there is significant growth in asset values, and the asset value growth is driven by borrowings. In more general terms, a bubble comes about through greed and carelessness from both lenders and borrowers in a situation where there is an oversupply of stock.
Are we in this situation currently? Well, there's nothing to suggest that we are. I believe our banks and financial intermediaries have stable risk management policies in place, despite their aggression in trying to maintain their market share.
In my opinion, the driving growth factor seems to be driven by existing homeowners who have much more reasonable levels of income and assets to support their property purchases. Due to this, the lenders can also be more aggressive due to having to compete in these market conditions.
There will always be a group of people who will ultimately cause lenders problems in an environment where there are high house prices and low interest rates. This is a consequence of some buyers overstretching themselves and getting caught up in a change in personal circumstances. As a word of warning, I would suggest that this is not the time to stretch your capacity and excessively borrow, but to look towards a lower cost investment and avoid the stress and potential pitfalls.
In the days ahead, I expect dwelling price growth rates to slow, with the market stabilising and exhibiting little growth throughout 2015. Those who are looking to make a first investment shouldn't rush into anything, and instead wait until the market moves into this more consolidating phase.
If you are looking for a more in depth analysis of my property research, you can find this in the Investor Centre at <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au.</a>
John Edwards is the consulting analyst for onthehouse.com.au.
 
</body></html>

jedwards-8kHM8GNY6d

Housing prices: Boom or bubble?

<html><body>
There are now 191 suburbs across New South Wales with a median house price of $1,000,000 or more.
Here's the list of suburbs, and their respective median prices (from RP Data), so you can see whether your suburb slipped onto the list.
ABBOTSFORD
$1,290,000
ALEXANDRIA
$1,007,000
ALLAMBIE HEIGHTS
$1,050,000
ANNANDALE
$1,152,000
ARTARMON
$1,562,000
ASHBURY
$1,008,000
AVALON
$1,231,000
BALGOWLAH
$1,377,000
BALGOWLAH HEIGHTS
$1,815,000
BALMAIN
$1,337,000
BALMAIN EAST
$2,075,000
BAR BEACH
$1,231,000
BAYVIEW
$1,240,000
BEACON HILL
$1,011,000
BEECROFT
$1,242,000
BELLA VISTA
$1,150,000
BELLEVUE HILL
$3,395,000
BELROSE
$1,060,000
BILGOLA
$1,075,000
BIRCHGROVE
$1,700,000
BLAKEHURST
$1,155,000
BONDI
$1,713,000
BONDI BEACH
$1,950,000
BONDI JUNCTION
$1,369,000
BOX HILL
$1,975,000
BREAKFAST POINT
$1,550,000
BRIGHTON-LE-SAND
$1,053,000
BRINGELLY
$1,050,000
BRONTE
$2,263,000
BURRANEER
$1,525,000
BURWOOD
$1,380,000
BURWOOD HEIGHTS
$1,106,000
See over page for suburbs beginning with C and D.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
CABARITA
$1,685,000
CAMMERAY
$1,500,000
CANADA BAY
$1,220,000
CARINGBAH SOUTH
$1,088,000
CARSS PARK
$1,240,000
CASTLECRAG
$1,730,000
CHATSWOOD
$1,550,000
CHATSWOOD WEST
$1,266,000
CHELTENHAM
$1,331,000
CHIFLEY
$1,110,000
CHISWICK
$1,680,000
CHURCH POINT
$1,345,000
CLONTARF
$2,250,000
CLOVELLY
$2,000,000
COLLAROY
$1,470,000
COLLAROY PLATEAU
$1,195,000
CONCORD
$1,300,000
CONCORD WEST
$1,230,000
CONNELLS POINT
$1,095,000
COOGEE
$1,725,000
CREMORNE
$1,550,000
CRONULLA
$1,245,000
CROWS NEST
$1,175,000
CROYDON
$1,208,000
CURL CURL
$1,710,000
DARLING POINT
$5,775,000
DARLINGHURST
$1,230,000
DAVIDSON
$1,089,000
DENISTONE
$1,100,000
DENISTONE WEST
$1,055,000
DOLANS BAY
$1,250,000
DOUBLE BAY
$2,500,000
DOVER HEIGHTS
$2,625,000
DRUMMOYNE
$1,339,000
DULWICH HILL
$1,028,000
Turn over page for suburbs beginning with E, F and G.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
EAST KILLARA
$1,740,000
EAST LINDFIELD
$1,738,000
EAST RYDE
$1,110,000
EASTGARDENS
$1,140,000
EASTLAKES
$1,075,000
EASTWOOD
$1,280,000
EDGECLIFF
$1,583,000
ELANORA HEIGHTS
$1,052,000
EPPING
$1,220,000
FAIRLIGHT
$1,320,000
FIVE DOCK
$1,067,000
FOREST LODGE
$1,128,000
FORESTVILLE
$1,060,000
FRENCHS FOREST
$1,020,000
FRESHWATER
$1,450,000
GLADESVILLE
$1,315,000
GLEBE
$1,135,000
GLENHAVEN
$1,023,000
GORDON
$1,575,000
GREENWICH
$1,800,000
Turn over page for suburbs beginning with H to L.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
HABERFIELD
$1,488,000
HOMEBUSH
$1,070,000
HUNTERS HILL
$1,800,000
HURLSTONE PARK
$1,005,000
HURSTVILLE
$1,100,000
HURSTVILLE GROVE
$1,055,000
KANGAROO POINT
$2,455,000
KENSINGTON
$1,700,000
KENTHURST
$1,333,000
KILLARA
$1,851,000
KILLARNEY HEIGHTS
$1,245,000
KINGSFORD
$1,360,000
KIRRIBILLI
$2,100,000
KOGARAH BAY
$1,213,000
KURRABA POINT
$3,113,000
KYEEMAGH
$1,045,000
LANE COVE
$1,323,000
LANE COVE NORTH
$1,250,000
LANE COVE WEST
$1,420,000
LEWISHAM
$1,023,000
LILLI PILLI SHIRE
$1,388,000
LILYFIELD
$1,131,000
LINDFIELD
$1,725,000
LITTLE BAY
$1,200,000
LONGUEVILLE
$2,638,000
Turn over page for suburbs beginning with M to O.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
MALABAR
$1,335,000
MANLY
$1,908,000
MANLY VALE
$1,115,000
MAROUBRA
$1,348,000
MCMAHONS POINT
$1,733,000
MELROSE PARK
$1,078,000
MIDDLE COVE
$1,200,000
MONA VALE
$1,160,000
MORTLAKE
$1,117,000
MOSMAN
$2,400,000
NAREMBURN
$1,400,000
NARRABEEN
$1,298,000
NEUTRAL BAY
$1,400,000
NEWPORT
$1,132,000
NORTH BALGOWLAH
$1,390,000
NORTH BONDI
$1,850,000
NORTH CURL CURL
$1,505,000
NORTH EPPING
$1,159,000
NORTH MANLY
$1,220,000
NORTH RYDE
$1,000,000
NORTH SYDNEY
$1,530,000
NORTH TURRAMURRA
$1,100,000
NORTH WAHROONGA
$1,200,000
NORTH WILLOUGHBY
$1,628,000
NORTHBRIDGE
$2,185,000
NORTHWOOD
$2,720,000
OATLEY
$1,050,000
Turn over page for suburbs beginning with P to S.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
PADDINGTON
$1,580,000
PAGEWOOD
$1,231,000
PALM BEACH
$2,518,000
PETERSHAM
$1,000,000
PORT HACKING
$1,450,000
PUTNEY
$1,320,000
PYMBLE
$1,580,000
PYRMONT
$1,180,000
QUEENS PARK
$1,790,000
RANDWICK
$1,590,000
REDFERN
$1,020,000
RHODES
$1,155,000
RIVERVIEW
$1,649,000
RODD POINT
$1,563,000
ROSE BAY
$2,152,000
ROSEVILLE CHASE
$1,723,000
ROZELLE
$1,090,000
RUSSELL LEA
$1,320,000
RYDE
$1,047,000
SANDRINGHAM
$1,411,000
SEAFORTH
$1,525,000
SOUTH COOGEE
$1,700,000
SOUTH TURRAMURRA
$1,033,000
ST IVES
$1,256,000
ST IVES CHASE
$1,261,000
STANMORE
$1,160,000
STRATHFIELD
$1,667,000
SUMMER HILL
$1,072,000
SURRY HILLS
$1,300,000
SYLVANIA WATERS
$1,200,000
Turn over page for suburbs beginning with T to Z.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
TAMARAMA
$2,300,000
TAPEN POINT
$1,180,000
TENNYSON POINT
$2,128,000
TERREY HILLS
$1,011,000
ULTIMO
$1,250,000
VAUCLUSE
$3,380,000
WAHROONGA
$1,200,000
WAITARA
$1,143,000
WAREEMBA
$1,081,000
WARRIEWOOD
$1,005,000
WATSONS BAY
$2,083,000
WAVERLEY
$1,629,000
WAVERTON
$1,562,000
WEST PENNANT HILLS
$1,070,000
WEST PYMBLE
$1,100,000
WILLOUGHBY
$1,425,000
WILLOUGHBY EAST
$1,730,000
WOLLSTONECRAFT
$1,256,000
WOOLLAHRA
$1,955,000
WOOLLOOMOOLOO
$1,040,000
YOWIE BAY
$1,955,000
ZETLAND
$1,095,000
</body></html>

jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Did your suburb make the New South Wales $1 million plus list?

<html><body>
Over September, the number of residential property sales listings went against the seasonal trend and actually decreased, according to SQM Research.
Sydney was ahead of the pack, with the biggest decrease on a monthly and yearly basis.
Nationally, unsold properties totalled 339,344 in September, which represented a 2.4% month on month decrease, and a 1.1% year on year drop.
Monthly decreases in stock were recorded in every capital other than Darwin. The number of unsold properties on the market in Darwin was up 26.4% year on year.
Managing director of SQM Research Louis Christopher said spring usually sees an increase in stock.
“It implies the market remains strong, particularly on the East Coast of Australia with buyers swooping on stock, often before the properties are formally listed for sale,” he said.
He believes that Sydney has led the recovery, and that Darwin is undergoing a correction.
<img src="data:image/png;base64,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" alt="">
Source: SQM Research
</body></html>

Abnormal drop in listings for early spring: SQM Research

<html><body>
Perhaps our easing cycle is not yet over?
Posssibly so. Markets have all but priced out any further interest rate cuts in this cycle - partly due to worries about cuts bringing more speculators into the housing market, and partly due to one seemingly very strong set of employment data - but it still seems to be very much in the balance to me.
One of several reasons I think that another cut or two might be needed is the decline in mining construction, which has yet to gather any real pace but remains a threat.
Construction phase of the mining boom fading
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Engineering Construction activity data yesterday, which is something of a proxy for mining construction activity.
We are now clearly beyond the peak of this construction phase of the mining boom as production begins to ramp up in its stead.
The total value of engineering construction work done across all sectors has now declined by 2.3% over the past year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
In chain volume measures terms the charts show that although activity remains at a highly elevated level, the peak of the mining construction boom appears to have been way back in the September 2012 quarter.
And while the decline has not been devastatingly steep, in chain volume measures terms we are now tracking at around 9% lower than we were, with 3.8% of that decline taking place over the past year.
<img src="/images/2014/10/2/ENG1.jpg" alt="">
In terms of the construction activity by state, it was the mining states which benefited most from the boom, so it will be the same states which feel most of the pain as the construction boom unwinds.
<img src="/images/2014/10/2/ENG2.jpg" alt="">
As recently as March 2014 there were still major resources projects getting underway in Western Australia, but the big ticket items are now largely visible in the rear view mirror.
<img src="/images/2014/10/2/ENG3.jpg" alt="">
In terms of the value of activity yet to be completed, work in the pipeline for Queensland has tanked. The full data set for Western Australia is not available from the Bureau of Statistics, but the sub-indices imply that the work in the pipeline is almost certainly declining there too.
<img src="/images/2014/10/2/ENG4.jpg" alt="">
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
With the weighted index of commodity prices continuing to "ease" by another 2.4% in September (and another 16% over the past year in Aussie dollar terms) according to the Reserve Bank of Australia, marginal projects will certainly not be commenced in the current environment.
<img src="/images/2014/10/2/commodity-prices-small.gif" alt="">
In short, mining construction activity has not collapsed, but it is set to keep declining for several years to come.
This leads me to think that another interest rate cut or two could still be at least an each-way bet, but only if the large number of investors pouring into the housing market slows. We will know more in the next week or two on that front.
WA property bust?
There has been some talk of whether or not the collapse in mining construction will result in a property bust in Western Australia.
The answer to that riddle is: that depends.
The Pilbara has transitioned into the export phase of the mining boom. which is the less labour intensive phase of the boom, and unsurprisingly several property markets have crashed, both in terms of rentals and prices.
This is hardly a shock, except to perhaps investors who were lured in by promises of fast returns and sky-high monthly rents.
The Perth property market is a different matter entirely. Western Australia, and especially Perth, has benefited from by far and away the strongest percentage rate of population growth in Australia over recent years.
The key to successful property investment in Perth has always been to own well located land. Unit and apartment prices may well feel some pain ahead, but with rapid population growth having underpinned the market the price of well located houses will fare much better.
Indeed, the median price of land in Perth reportedly "skyrocketed" by $40,000 in the past year.
This represents a 7.5% increase in the median value of Perth land, which outpaced Adelaide (+7.3%) and Sydney (+5.2%).
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Has the market mispriced the odds of a rate cut?

<html><body>
Q: Is there a housing bubble?
A: Nationally no, but if we are talking about Sydney, Melbourne and new inner Brisbane apartments, then yes.  That's a YES, in case you somehow missed it.
Sydney and Melbourne have been distorted by an influx of 'grey' money coming from China. Many don't like to hear this, but it is happening. No hard statistics, but our groundtruthing is looking worthy of a hefty bet.  And of late, some of this grey has shifted north, along with local superannuation funds looking for cheap property &amp; a longish timeframe to settle, in the hope of double digit price growth.
Brisbane always follows Sydney, right?  Property is so cheap in Brisbane, hey! You can buy two in Brisbane for the price of just one in Sydney. Bris Vegas here we come.
Sidebar
I have an internal debate several times each month – it's fun, like talking to an imaginary friend – about whether or not to write on a certain topic. 
Do I let blast about China? Publish my thoughts about smaller apartments?  Call out all those BS artists promising double digit price growth &amp; rental increases?  And this week, it's a yes.  Write something about the Reserve Bank (RBA), Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and how we will all be rooned.
We'll all be rooned
Now, there is nothing wrong with a global property market, nor being in the recovery phase of the property cycle and having closer ties to China – or any of our major trading partners for that matter.
But a housing bubble is a different story.
Property values have almost trebled over the past two decades, while wages have not kept pace. House prices in both Sydney, Melbourne, some parts of Perth and now across inner Brisbane, are often over 10 times household earnings. In many cases, weekly rents also far exceed 30% of a renter's income.
And things can start getting out of hand when the proportion of investors buying accounts for around half of all residential sales – double the 25% of the housing market made up by private renters. This happens every cycle, but its current trajectory is unsustainable.
Got some doubts?
Well this year alone, housing credit and house prices have climbed at, respectively, more than two and three times the rate of household income growth. It isn't the actual rate of credit and price growth that is the problem, but their relationship with our ability to afford this inflation.
It's true that this is mostly a Sydney and Melbourne phenomenon, but we only have a few blunt tools in the back of our ute to temper the times. And besides, we have never been that good at small, fiddly renovations. Slash and burn is more our style.
The good and the bad
Yes, there are reasons for property demand to be improving – we have record low interest rates, relatively low vacancy rates, high population growth and a strong penchant for owning property.
But on the flip side, we have falling commodity prices, an employment baton change which, for the life of me, I cannot see happening smoothly nor correspondingly, little wage growth, ageing demographics, high debt, an increasingly economically wobbly China and a close to epileptic Europe. Not to mention what may or may not happen with the rest of the world.
For those who only hear good news, you might have missed that Australia's federal budget deficit last year (2013/14) was close to $50 billion &amp; yet the Palmer United Party wants to keep the red ink flowing until the early 2020s. 
If that happens, then our prized AAA sovereign credit rating could be at risk, especially if something goes wrong with our economy – or that of a major trading partner.
In short, we might see the vulnerable economic conditions of southern Europe down under.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
True blue
But in true ocker fashion – it's all "she'll be right mate", "nothing to see here". Those questioning our "property at all costs" mentality need to take a double dose &amp; retire to bed early. Keep on moving on. Bid higher at that auction. Buy something tiny and off-plan. Doesn't property double in value every seven years? You cannot lose.
Too far-fetched?
Well, our real wages are falling. Yes, falling, as average earnings rose just 2.3% over the last 12 months – that's 0.3% lower than inflation. Unemployment is over 6%, without counting the 700,000-plus on disability pensions.
True, the RBA does predict higher economic growth next year, real wage growth in some distant future and lower employment one day, maybe, but this is predicated on the assumption that nothing economic will go bang or that China's economy won't slow down further.
Excuse me for being a skeptic, but trying to predict an economic future, these days, is almost impossible.  I would just love to read or hear one of those talking eco heads say something like, "well, frankly we don't have a bloody clue".
If you ask me what's going to happen, your guess is as good as mine.
But I do like to guess, so here goes.
<ul>
<li>Government will not reign in spending; we (the senate) won't allow it.</li>
<li>No workplace reforms, for fear of a union campaign.</li>
<li>The RBA will continue jawboning and keep interest rates where they are (when looking at the whole of the Australian economy – not just housing in Sydney and Melbourne – they really need to fall).</li>
<li>Plenty of talks about macro-prudential action – like higher investment loan to value ratios; changes to property taxation or minimum product sizes – but nothing done. Maybe that is a good thing?</li>
<li>No enforcement by FIRB regarding illegal overseas buying – and it has almost all been illegal in recent years.</li>
</ul>
And it's the last point that is the most pertinent right now.  If you want to slow down the Sydney, Melbourne and inner Brisbane property markets without stopping the rest of the country, then you must enforce offshore buying laws.
Inert FIRB
An inert FIRB has done nothing to inhibit the grey economy that exists to get money out of China (ironically, helping them deflate their own housing bubble) &amp; into safer overseas havens like Australia.
It's true that the Chinese government imposes a $US50,000 a year limit that can be sent out of the country, but cashed-up Chinese bypass this system via personal relationships rather than transparent bank transfers. Heaps of property – just how much is unknown (but it shouldn't be) – is being bought this way in Sydney &amp; Melbourne, Perth, and now in Brisbane and starting to again on the Gold Coast.
Also, the Significant Investor Visa (SIV) is dominated by mainland Chinese who meet the $5 million requirement. They are paying stupid prices for potential development sites (with site values doubling in the past five years), but property economics do not apply here, as the SIV is really a fast-tracked qualification for a permanent visa. Dual nationality is the want, but sadly, too many Chinese just want an Aussie passport as an insurance policy, not a new way of life.
Lower down the chain – much lower, if you ask me – is another sheltered workshop – property spruikers flogging Chinese investors little high-rise boxes in Sydney, Melbourne and now Brisbane. Entire high-rise buildings are financed, built and sold for the Chinese market, with local buyers and developers rendered irrelevant. Small, one-bedroom dogboxes are the norm. The more the merrier. How divine, indeed!
And all of this should be illegal. If only FIRB would enforce the law!
All of this illicit activity is creating a demand that would not otherwise exist. Well at nowhere near the levels that it is increasing spruiked. Quarterly newspaper lift-outs about Australia's sudden urge to live on top of each other – I mean, come on.
And this, coupled with local superannuation investors – many of whom appear to have been sold a pup – has created valuations that are dangerously detached from average weekly earnings &amp; sustainable owner-resident demand.
But then again, it is Australia mate; stop all this fussing; she'll be right; tyranny of distance and all that stuff.
But seriously folks
But seriously, something has to be done.  We are now entering some serious hot water.
Here's another guess.  Nothing will happen until this gets political; economic sense doesn't seem to cut the mustard around here anymore.  The political wedge, for mine, come next federal election, is overseas buying.
But between now then, I will take Terry's advice – take a couple of aspirin &amp; have a good lie down. 
Michael Matusik is the founder of Matusik Property Insights, which has helped over 550 new residential projects come to fruition.  Read Michael's <a href="https://matusik.com.au/missive/" target="_blank">Blog</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>.
</body></html>

michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Is there a housing bubble? Or should we all take a wee lie down?

<html><body>
Good grief, do they ever learn? Or do they just not care?
They're declaring the "property boom" over, yet again.
And, yet again, it's based on a single figure for a single month from a single source, published in haste.
This is the fourth time (or is it the fifth?) the so-called boom has been pronounced dead within the past 12 months. This week I've observed radio news bulletins, online news services and newspapers making the claim, or otherwise placing great significance of an isolated statistic.
The alleged growth in Australian house prices in September was small, therefore it's all over, red rover.
To illustrate how silly this is, let me take you back four months.
Early in June, data was published indicating a decline in capital city prices in May. People rushed to be first to declare the end of the property boom.
They generated lots of headlines for themselves – which evidently was the only objective – but they got it horribly wrong.
They simply added to the great seething mass of misinformation which confuses and misleads real estate consumers – for no better reason than to develop their profiles or advance their businesses.
The organisation which made the biggest play for profile in June was an obscure valuation practice. We won't publish its name to protect the guilty. Early in June the firm issued a press release which sought to ensure everyone knew that it had been the first to declare that the market had peaked and the boom was over.
"This has been well and truly demonstrated now that the May figures are out," it shouted in its 3 June press release. "At the beginning of May, other forecasters were still looking for a rebound in activity in May following a weaker Easter period, but now it is clear that we were correct in calling a change in the market."
Well, actually, NO. They were wrong. Prices have continued to rise in Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne – and now other cities have begun to move (moderately), including Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart.
Its mistake, apart from a shameless push for I-told-you-so publicity, was its reliance on a single data figure, describing a single month's price movement, from a single company. You would have to think they've been around real estate long enough to know that price graphs are never smooth and that a single month's data can be an aberration. That's particularly so for May, which often is a month in which the market dips slightly, but temporarily.
Even worse was basing an assessment on one figure, which describes the average change across a very large nation. That was naïve in the extreme. But they weren't alone.
Economists and financial analysts just can't resist preaching about real estate, notwithstanding their lack of expertise. So in June, a multi-national financial services corporation jumped on board and declared that "the housing boom is finally over". We'll overlook the reality that there was no housing boom, just a Sydney boom.
"If you're an investor, you've missed the boat," said one of their analysts, who put out a note to investors tell them that, without further interest rate cuts, the currently housing cycle was a dead duck.
So, four months later, here we are again. The commentators and analysts have forgotten June, or just don't care, and so have the media workers who publish their nonsense.
While the attention-seekers were clamouring this week to grab a bit of profile from the September price data, valuation firm Herron Todd White published the October edition of The Month in Review and made this pertinent observation: "There continues to be talk of the Sydney property boom, but not all markets can lay claim to this sort of activity. Our real estate is as varied as our landscape in Australia, and market performance is just as diverse."
It also said this: "It's funny. These almost daily calls of 'property bubble vs no property bubble' feel a bit like a couple of grade one school boys attempting classic sledges such as At least I'm not ugly and I know you are, but what am I?. It looks like Sydney and, to a lesser part, Melbourne are driving the property market agenda again. Let's just say that there are other markets outside of these that would really, really like to see some capital gains, but may be doomed to legislative tightening designed to cool New South Wales and Victoria. It's further evidence that, in our big nation, there is no such thing as an average property or a typical market."
So true. But try telling that to your (very) average economist, who knows little about real estate but a lot about generating cheap publicity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can reach Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">twitter</a>.
 
 
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Apparently, the property boom is over – again

<html><body>
 Guest Observation
Paul Craig, Managing Director of International Investments at Savills, looks at what’s driving the weight of foreign capital in the Australian market, particularly in relation to prime commercial stock, and what lies ahead for major players.
I have just completed a trip to China, visiting our clients and presenting to institutions and investors. 
On the flight back to Australia, I made some notes on what we learnt. What struck me most is that the Chinese investment we’ve seen in Australia to date is really just the first wave.
Across the mainland, and on the island of Taiwan, there is real impetus for major institutions like insurance companies and private investors to look abroad for high-quality assets with good returns. That search has led them to Australia at the same time as major institutions here have been pursuing a deleveraging strategy with their portfolios.
With local institutions like super funds returning to the market, a likely increase in Chinese investment means competition for highly rated commercial property is set to intensify.
Why are these investors interested in Australia? 
Prime office and retail property in Australia has seen offshore investment for years, but until recently, most interest came from German funds, REITs and private investors from Singapore and Malaysia, and Korean pension funds.
In 2013, we started to see the emergence of what I call the second generation of capital, led by Chinese and Taiwanese insurance groups. These groups spearheaded a worldwide trend of institutions de-risking their portfolios and spreading their assets across the globe. What they are looking for is prime assets with good levels of return, and that is what exactly they’ve been finding in Australia.
Our market ticks all their other boxes too – a highly transparent market, good-quality information, an easy to understand tax system, accessible consultants and no sovereign risk
During the course of 2013, many of these groups flew staff in to get to know the market, and once they felt comfortable, they were quick to take advantage of opportunities in office and retail assets in Sydney and Melbourne in particular.
But now, the easier pickings have gone and local super funds and REITs are returning to the market, thanks to the lowest cost of debt in forty years and a reallocation of funds to property. 
The return of local institutional buyers has increased competition for prime assets, which is seeing many Asia-based investors priced out of major sales, so now they are turning their attention to other areas.
A shift to residential 
Residential development is part of the landscape in Asian markets and these investors understand it well, particularly the recycling of buildings to residential or mixed use.  
With local institutions deleveraging and transitioning their portfolios, China-based groups have been finding opportunities to convert older office buildings to residential – particularly in Sydney’s CBD and in precincts like Hyde Park.
For the most part, I think they will employ long-term strategies rather than immediate conversion, as they have an interest in retaining the building’s income and transitioning these assets over time. They are also buying land parcels for development in inner suburbs near transport in Sydney and Melbourne. 
The other key target for foreign capital is old industrial infill sites for future residential development. I think this is a significant growth area and is becoming keenly sort after by foreign developers. 
The resource states
The focus on better returns will see more Asian-based investors venturing into the resource states.
In Perth, they will find opportunities in a market with a little more volatility. Good-quality CBD stock is recording higher vacancies than in Sydney or Melbourne, but also better rates of return given slightly higher risk and less aggressive competition. 
Perth is currently absorbing supply, but this market often experiences a quick uplift after a lagging period. It is a natural resource hub, and its exposure and proximity to, and same time zone as Asia, combined with the lower profile of the financial sector and greater resource exposure, offers a balance to investments on the east coast.
Investors in Western Australia should buy without a specific exit date, but as a long-term holder who sells when the time is right for their strategy.
I think we will also see interest spread to Brisbane, with an emphasis on residential. There is an increase in tenants moving from older properties to more prime CBD offices as the rental market eases, which means we should see an increased opportunity for the repositioning of older stock.
Interest in residential development should also find its way to other major centres as the stock in the sought-after cities depletes. We are already seeing a strong move by foreign capital to sites in the east and inner metropolitan areas of Melbourne, and the Sydney metropolitan market has been in full swing for a while now.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below. 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Partnerships 
Another change we are likely to see is more investment through partnerships. 
Many of the core office assets with good covenants and long lease profiles are owned through equity arrangements, and this should prove an attractive avenue for these institutions. 
Many Chinese groups will be inclined towards indirect pathways such as joint ventures with Australian developers and partners. It makes sense for their strategy, gaining better returns in Australia with management issues left to a local partner.
‘Second city’ investors 
To date, most investment interest has come from Beijing and Shanghai, but on our trip we fielded significant enquiries out of second-tier centres like Dalian, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Chengdu. 
Like their ‘first city’ cousins, these investors are attracted by the returns and transparency of arrangements here and they will be keen to understand the dynamics that drive the market. These players are likely to be interested in smaller scale, private equity type arrangements. 
What picture does that paint?
A growing Chinese investment wave makes for some upbeat prospects for the Australian market. 
With low interest rates and a significant weight of capital wanting to find a home here, I think we will continue to see Asian-based investment in residential development and prime properties held through shares and joint ventures with local partners. 
Many Chinese groups have done their homework on Australia, and with the weakening of the Australian dollar having commenced its run, we expect to see these groups make quick decisions to secure assets ahead of a potential new wave, particularly of private equity, that will find its way <a name="_GoBack" href=""></a>here off the back of a weak Australian dollar.
That paints a bright picture for asset holders and market players alike.
 
</body></html>

Influence of Chinese investors set to grow

<html><body>
Demand for residential property is leading to an increasing number of secondary office buildings being converted into apartments despite the challenges posed by repurposing commercial buildings.
Converting some commercial properties to residential uses was like “trying to squeeze a square peg into a round hole”, Colliers International director of project marketing residential Curtis Field told Property Observer.
“What works for commercial office buildings, like having lift wells in the centre of the building, may not work for residential,” said Field, who spoke on the topic at the Retrofit and Refurb conference in Sydney last week.
Compromises may have to be made in turning a commercial floor plan into residential apartments, as contestants in reality TV show The Block Glasshouse have discovered.
Ceiling heights can be a problem because commercial buildings are designed as offices, not residences. It might also be difficult to obtain adequate light and ventilation for each apartment.
“It’s sometimes really hard to meet those planning requirements,” Field said, adding that it was becoming less of an issue to overcome the problems and the benefits usually outweighed the challenges.
Benefits worth the challenges
Converting an existing office building to residential uses meant developers could often achieve larger apartment buildings than if they were seeking approval for a new structure, Field said.
“That happens in the CBD where an office was allowed to be 10 to 12 storeys tall but if you knocked that building down you might not be able to get planning approval to construct a new building to that height,” he said. “You’re getting something that could not be constructed now.”
Another plus for developers was that there was less impact on the local community and neighbours could not complain about issues such as loss of views if the building was already in place.
“If you talk to builders about converting a building that’s already there they say it doesn’t save on construction costs but from a time table point of view you don’t have six months of demolition and then 12 to 18 months of heavy construction. It’s really a fit out job,” Field said.
“From a sales point of view you can see the building and what views you are going to get where off-the-plan is hard to visualise,” Field said.
Factors facilitating conversions
Changes to zoning and heritage restrictions have been allowing developers to convert commercial buildings to residential uses, which previously would not have been permitted.
“We are seeing that in industrial zoning like in South Sydney which used to be industrial,” Field said.
Secondary commercial properties in the CBD and elsewhere could deliver higher returns on investment if converted to apartments when zoning permitted, Field said.
“Milsons Point in Sydney is a classic example where commercial tenants were attracted back to the city, North Sydney and North Ryde which made those buildings almost obsolete because the costs to upgrade outweighed the return you would get from commercial tenants whereas they have become highly desirable as residential,” he said.
Superannuation fund CBUS is working on the conversion of Vibe Hotel at 88 Alfred Street, Milsons Point, which it bought earlier this year for about $80 million, to between 130 and 140 residential apartments.
The superannuation fund also owns a commercial building at 130 Elizabeth Street opposite Hyde Park in central Sydney, which recently received stage 1 development approval to be converted to apartments.
Foreign investors have bought buildings on the Hyde Park fringe and while many are commercial investments now, Field said they were being repositioned as residential development opportunities because of their views.
Singaporean investors have development applications before council on 227 Elizabeth Street with plans to develop 140 apartments in the building, which overlooks the Hyde Park.
Elsewhere in Sydney, Chinese investors bought 286 Sussex Street in late 2013 with plans to convert the vacant office building to residences. The Goldfields House commercial building at 1 Alfred Street was bought by US and Dutch investors for residential conversion.
Field estimates there is between 110,000 and 180,000 square metres of commercial floor space in Sydney earmarked for conversion to residences over the next five years.
A separate report by JLL Research estimated that nationally, 46,940sqm of office property was withdrawn for residential development in 2013 – up from 25,794 the year before.
</body></html>

zfielding-GvX3Uq9KTa

Office conversions to residences on the rise

<html><body>
A retail unit in Doncaster East has sold for $860,000, reflecting an increase in value of more than 100% in four years.
Shop 10 in the Devon Plaza strip shops at 958 Doncaster Road last traded four years ago for $400,000, according to RP Data.
The sale, which was conducted by Chris Alcock of Gorman Kelly, was also 31% more than it was expected to achieve at auction.
The single storey 49.5 square metre retail freehold is zoned Commercial 1 and currently leased to Canine Elegance.
The tenant has a new three-year lease with a three-year option that began in August this year for a yearly rent of $31,200, plus GST and outgoings. 
The lease includes 5% annual rent increases with a market review if the option is exercised. The lease agreement reflects a yield of 3.6% for the new owners, while the previous landlord was banking 7.8%.
Agent Chris Alcock says the sale reflects how hotly contended affordable commercial investments area among small investors and self managed super funds.
 
</body></html>

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News