Apartment developers in the Gold Coast are finding new, creative ways to differentiate themselves from competing projects, as new supply starts to flow through up and down the Coast.

Developer Big Projects brought in the renowned Sydney-based design studio YSG to craft the interiors for The Frederick, Big Projects' new Mermaid Beach project and YSG's first move into the multi-residential development space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5346]

It was a strategic move for Big Projects to bring in a Sydney eye to the development.

“Our role is to give our design partners the space and freedom to explore,” says Matt Barrett, Director of Big Projects.

“We wanted YSG Studio to capture the essence of Nobby’s, to design a building that embraces life, light and connection, while creating a genuine sense of place.”

There are only 39 apartments in The Frederick, including a striking beach house, just 100 metres from the booming Nobby Beach precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5347]

Yasmine Ghoniem, Director of YSG Studio, says their vision&nbsp;for The Frederick "reinvents coastal living."

“Nobby’s has such an iconic energy, it’s one of those rare pockets of the Gold Coast where the community, the beach, and the streets all feel connected,” Ghoniem says.

"Responding to the neighbouring coastline, soothing curves add a relaxing regional overlay, while unique detailing really sets it apart. It’s a place that feels lived in from the moment you step inside.”

A standout feature of The Frederick is its rooftop terrace, an uncommon inclusion for a boutique, low-rise building, where amenity is typically concentrated at ground level.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110588 project_image_fid=5360]

Positioned to capture panoramic views from the hinterland to the ocean, the rooftop has been designed as a series of intimate zones. It includes a pool, sauna, sun decks, workspaces and dedicated entertaining areas.

“The rooftop was conceived as a collection of spaces where residents can unwind and connect, an extension of the Nobby’s lifestyle,” Barrett says.

Architecture for the project was led by Plus Architecture, with landscape design by LDG.

SRQ Projects Director Nick Clydsdale, who is handling sales at The Frederick, says the majority of enquiry is coming from South East QLD and Victorian buyers who have been actively searching between Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach for some time.

"They’ve reviewed a number of projects, however this one has stood out for its design flair/ appeal,"&nbsp;Clydsdale says.

Site demolition is slated for this month, with construction commencing soon after. Big Projects is targeting a late 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=110588]

Joel Robinson

Big Projects taps Sydney’s YSG for first multi-residential project at The Frederick Mermaid Beach

Melbourne-based property developer ALTA Property has this week achieved planning approval for the adaptive re-use of a former commercial tower into a $200 million, 169-apartment project at 10 Queens Road, one of the last developable sites along the Albert Park Lake-fronting boulevard.&nbsp;

Set within one of Melbourne’s most sought-after precincts and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser and Partners</a>, the illustrious building will offer unparalleled views across Albert Park Lake, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

The mix of 1, 2 and 3-bedroom residences will be complemented by a ground-floor amenity featuring private dining, a lounge bar, gym and wellness spaces, co-working, outdoor communal gardens, and retail.&nbsp;

The 17-storey building is a masterclass in adaptive re-use, with the existing commercial building’s façade, shell and internal structure to be retained, before high-end residences are built from the ground up in a newly built Albert Park facing addition to the building.&nbsp;

Sitting atop the building will be two 320+sqm penthouses with private rooftop terraces, which are expected to be priced between $9 - $11 million.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa11211b-5581-43f9-940c-fc84d30a0e61" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/C_04.png?VersionId=Yhf5p_1EgGDu_zOIMFgvA8Ug8j3sTFQs" />

Architecturally, the building will feature a curved, geometric façade that celebrates and elevates the existing structure, with warm, muted tones which were selected to extend the materiality of the existing building rather than contrast it.&nbsp;

Interiors will bring together three metre high ceilings with waffle concrete in some spaces, natural timber, granite and Australian materials, culminating in crafted, generous and considered spaces that are defined by authenticity.&nbsp;

The adaptive re-use means that the Queens Road project will be a sustainability led, high-quality finished product, with a 62% saving in carbon emissions by re-using the existing structure rather than knocking it down and rebuilding.&nbsp;

ALTA Property was launched by Nigel Givoni in 2023, bringing over 25 years of experience in multi level residential delivery.&nbsp;

Melbourne’s property market growth is currently led by apartments. According to RPM VIC Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), units are outpacing houses, especially in the middle ring suburbs where median prices hit $757,500 – a four-year high that represents 2.9 percent growth quarter-on-quarter.&nbsp;

<img alt="ALTA Property achieves permit approval for $200 million Queens Road tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="647e13d7-b4bc-433a-9bc9-fe3c3dd4f2ec" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/V_06.png?VersionId=ou4NUCWUgA3NAy.6CQJlEdKX50j3dOk6" />

For ALTA Property Founder Nigel Givoni, this performance speaks to the confidence he has in the Melbourne market.&nbsp;

“Queens Road represents a rare opportunity to continue to shape our presence in the Melbourne market.,"&nbsp;Givoni says.

"With a considered project team and a premier site along one of the city’s most sought-after boulevards, we look forward to contributing to the fabric of this established address.

“Other Australian markets are getting a lot of attention, but I believe the depth of value in Melbourne is being overlooked. The fundamentals are strong, population growth is steady and, based on our preliminary conversations with a leading builder, construction costs are beginning to normalise, creating further opportunity."

Givoni says the project is a&nbsp;highly considered example of adaptive re-use, delivering quality, high-end residences, premium hotel-inspired amenities and an architecturally striking façade, all achieved without the need to remove the existing structure.

"We are really looking forward to the market’s response,” he said.&nbsp;

ALTA Property to deliver $200 million Queens Road apartment tower

Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.

The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.

Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]

The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.

Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.

All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]

Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.

The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.

Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.

The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.

<img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" />

“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.

“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”

Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.

The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.

<img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" />

St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.

More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.

NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.

They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.

The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.

Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.

Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]

Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.

“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.

Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]

Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.

“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]

Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]

Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/record-high-immigration-to-sydney"></a>Immigration ramps up </h3>
<div id="post-body-155762510240148591" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The natural increase in Australia's population slowed a bit over the 2017 financial year as the number of deaths increased. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However net immigration from overseas boomed by +27 per cent from +193,000 to 245,500, so you can comprehensively chalk that one up as a good call for this blog page (a year ago much of the idle talk of was population growth dropping because of a slowing economy). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is the planet's sixth largest country so this isn't such a big deal in itself, but the concentration of the immigration will raise a few eyebrows, as we shall see below. </div>
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<div>Over the financial year Australia's population grew by +388,100 or +1.6 per cent to 24.6 million by the end of June 2017. </div>
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 The Aussie population will pass the 25 million landmark in 2018. The MEL-SYD magnet <div>Net overseas migration into the two most populous states rose to the highest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales (+98,600) and Victoria (+86,800) accounted for the great bulk of immigration, with new arrivals overwhelmingly clustering into the capital cities of Greater Sydney and Melbourne respectively. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Immigration into Queensland is also picking up the pace, from a cyclical nadir of +18,300 over the year to September 2015 up to +31,100 in the 2017 financial year, with the trend pointing north as the economy improves. </div>
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<div>Just as significantly for Queensland, the state is now pulling Sydneysiders up and away from New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net interstate migration to the Sunshine State hit a decade-high +5,050 in the June quarter, taking the rolling annual total up to +17,400, surpassing Victoria to notch the biggest draw of any state. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is positive news for Brisbane, while unlike the most populous states Queensland has other worthy growth hubs, including Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>South Australia lost -5,900 residents interstate, and Western Australia lost -11,700, although in each case the bottom appears to be in. </div>
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 The big migratory trend in 2018 will clearly be from New South Wales up to Queensland.  <div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Totting up the figures New South Wales (+121,800), Victoria (+144,400), and Queensland (+79,600) accounted for 89 per cent of population growth in the 2017 financial year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria's population growth rate of +2.3 per cent exceeds the rate at which appropriate new accommodation can realistically be built, let alone the availability of new land supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand population growth rate was considerably weaker than the national average in Western Australia (+21,400 or +0.8 per cent), South Australia (+10,500 or +0.6 per cent), Tasmania (+3,300 or +0.8 per cent), and the Northern Territory (+400 or +0.1 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last, but certainly not least, the Australian Capital Territory added +6,800 or +1.7 per cent to its population, which will help to fill up all those new apartments. </div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Record high immigration to Sydney and Melbourne: Pete Wargent 

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A nation like Australia should be able to have a sensible, rational, balanced debate on issues like housing affordability – but it seems we cannot because we have the media from hell. 
Mainstream media has been having a feeding frenzy recently over two documents about negative gearing and its impact on affordability – one a leaked report from Federal Treasury and the other a half-finished research paper by Melbourne University economists. 
Both apparently claim that scrapping negative gearing tax benefits would have only a minor impact on home values but at the same time would bring about a major improvement in housing affordability. 
There’s been lots of commentary on the significance of these documents, especially with regard to Federal Government policy, but I have not seen any media reports from writers who have challenged the documents. 
Their findings, apparently, are deemed to be factual and beyond scrutiny. 
The worst contribution to this endless and seemingly fruitless debate about affordability, its causes and its solutions, has come from the Melbourne University research paper. 
My first question about this is: why would the authors publish research that is not yet finished? It is, according to the authors, “preliminary and incomplete”. One of them says that when the research modelling is complete, the results may change, particularly the forecast size of the lift in home ownership. 
Given the sad record of this discussion being blighted by claims, counter-claims, pet theories and silver bullet solutions, why would academics who want to be taken seriously publish something that just adds to the quagmire of confusion because it’s still a work in progress. 
This paper makes some pretty big claims. Three-quarters of households would be better off, home ownership would surge and rents would rise but renters would be somehow better off. 
These are big statements. But they’re not justified or substantiated in any of the reports I’ve read. 
To try to understand why the authors think the suggested policy changes would have the big impacts they claim, I studied reports from six sources, including The Australian, the Financial Review, The Age and The Guardian. 
I’m still waiting for an explanation of the claimed outcomes. And I’m still waiting to come across a journalist who challenged the authors of the report on a number of matters, including their credentials, their motivations, their methodology and their assumptions. 
I’d love to see the mathematics that’s led them to their preliminary and incomplete conclusions. 
Here’s a core question they should be asked: how can you claim that the suggested policy would cause a 30% reduction in rental property supply, and therefore an increase in rents, but also claim that renters everywhere would be better off? 
From my study of media reports, it seems the authors are assuming that a 30% reduction in supply would cause a rental rise of only 2.4 percent – and that the Federal Government would financially compensate tenants for the higher rents that would result. 
Those are massive assumptions. No one in Australian media has challenged them. 
If they’re wrong and there’s no government compensation for higher rents, which would cost billions of dollars according to the report, tenants will be disadvantaged by having higher weekly occupancy costs, which would make it harder to save a deposit to get into home ownership. 
That whole argument falls apart if a future government offers no compensation. 
And keep in mind that other research tells us that last year, without any taxation policy changes to limit the supply of rental properties, house rents rose 7 percent in Canberra, 9 percent in Hobart and 5 percent in Melbourne. 
But, according to the Melbourne University boffins, eliminating one-third of the supply of rental properties would cause rents to change barely at all. 
It’s worth remembering that significantly higher rents resulted when a Labor Government scrapped negative gearing in the 1980s and then had to re-instate it a short time later because of the unforeseen adverse impacts. 
The university paper claims that property values would fall only 1.2 percent but somehow this insignificant decline in house prices would generate a massive rise in home ownership – from 66.7 percent to 72.2 percent. 
How have they come up with these very precise but unexplained estimates? 
They claim 30 percent of rental properties would be freed up and bought by Australians who would otherwise have rented. So we’re asked to accept that a 1.2% drop in prices would turn those who can’t afford to buy into people who now can do so. 
That’s another massive assumption that no one has challenged. 
Think about it. The Asking Price Index for Sydney houses sits at $1,356,500, according to SQM Research. A 1.2 percent reduction in prices would bring that down to $1,340,222. Apparently $1.356 million is unaffordable but $1.34 million is affordable to heaps of people. 
But those are Sydney prices. Let’s look at a city that’s a little less extreme, like Brisbane. The Asking Price Index for the Queensland capital sits around $614,000 and a 1.2 percent reduction would bring it down to about $607,000. 
The report authors want us to believe that this small change will cause a “surge” in home ownership rates in Brisbane. 
In a parallel universe, maybe, but not in the real world. 
There are other aspects of this paper that ought to be challenged – and would be if journalism played a part in the reporting of the housing industry. 
The claim that only the “rich” benefit from negative gearing is outrageous - and patently false, according to ATO data. 
There’s no explanation in any report I’ve read for the claim that 76 percent of households would be better off under the suggested policy change. We’re told only that the authors used “an economic model”. 
Surely Australia as a nation can do better than this. But while we’re saddled with such mediocre media and clueless politicians, we’re doomed to having this festering issue drone on for years to come. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Melbourne University negative gearing study needs to be challenged over its methodology and assumptions: Terry Ryder

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There is little doubt the Sydney auction market has started out a lot better in February, than it finished off last December.
At this stage, four weeks in, the positivity has been more evident from the auction clearance rate being on the rise, than prices making any advances.
February typically suffers none of the inbuilt end of year fatigue. Saturday's preliminary clearance sat at over 70 percent.
You never know, but prices could spurt again, especially if our fresh stock levels stay low after the upcoming early Easter break, and the banks begin to ease up on their lending.
It would not be a second wind for prices, because we've already seen that many times, just when the market seemed destined to head backwards.
Sydney is highly resilient when it comes to property price momentum, often catching forecasters out of step.
I was thinking of the contributing mix, intrinsic and not so, when I popped a few questions to Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists.
He is currently touring Australia. Last time he toured in 2014, Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent.
His controversial forecasts were labelled as scaremongering by many commentators including Chris Joye.
Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast also saw the founder of wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris counter the claims. 
In 2011 on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent urged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps after a China crash hits our shores.
He will be pursuing the same message this time around.
I told Dent that dwelling prices in Sydney now sit at around a $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014.
The median represents a significant 46 percent rise since Dent's last warning, and an 80 percent rise since his 2011 warning.
Pressed by me, Dent admits he was wrong through he sticks to the yet-to-occur outcome, merely adjusting the timing of his dire forecast.
"I was wrong, how about that," he said.
"I'm early."
Australia will burst whenever the China bubble bursts, he says.
Dent warns many won't see it coming, and adds that real estate, unlike the stockmarket, won't have any easy escape route, and its recovery will take much longer.
"This is not a normal bubble," he suggests noting the global real estate bubble had extended well beyond typical lengths.
He argues the global bubble has been caused by central banks printing money, not just low interest rates.
Dent says suggests central banks can't keep printing money for ever.
"What's not different is by every measure, is these are bubbles.
"Chinese real estate is a bubble.
"The Sydney real estate is a bubble." 
"Better to get out a little early," he will be telling his 2018 audiences.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph
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Harry Dent says he was early with his dire Sydney price collapse forecast

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Investors will be piling into the Adelaide market – just as soon as they read somewhere that there’s a boom in the South Australia capital.
But not before. The only constant in the residential property market is that the herd mentality drives the actions of buyers and sellers. 
Adelaide right now is a strong value-for-money proposition, with one of the steadiest and most consistent markets in capital city Australia, underpinned by an economy that the experts have recognised as one of the nation’s best.
But investors generally refuse to consider it. Adelaide flies under the radar screen, with many people clinging to the outdated notion that Adelaide and SA is a low-growth sort of place.
But the experts know better. Here’s a snapshot of what some have said recently:
“South Australia’s economy was the standout of all states and territories in the last three months of 2018, with strong house prices and positive employment momentum boding well for the future.” – ANZ Stateometer report
"Residential property capital values in South Australia had their fastest rise for six years in the last financial year." - SA Property Landscape report from Land Services SA
"Business confidence in SA is now at levels not seen in more than 10 years." - Business SA-William Buck Survey of Business Expectations
"South Australia remains home to the most confident property sector in the country,  buoyed by tax cuts and positive economic announcements. It is the fourth consecutive quarter that confidence in the state's property industry has topped the country." - ANZ / Property Council Survey's Statewide Index
"All the economic indicators are suggesting that Adelaide is going to experience a very buoyant 2019." - Broadway Property director Ben Heritage
"Price Growth Reaches 6 Year High in Sleeper State" - Smart Property Investment magazine
"Adelaide Median House Value Soars To Record High, Defying Downturn In Other Capital Cities." - The Advertiser
"Adelaide Housing Market Forecast To See Steady Growth." - Moody Analytics
"The two key measures of the SA economy - how much production in the state and  how much spending in the state - are both accelerating." - Chris Richardson, Deloitte Access Economics
"Elon Musk’s Tesla is aiming to more than double its battery rollouts during 2019, saying its huge Hornsdale battery in SA has become an important calling card that's attracting bigger projects." - The Australian
"Technicolor's Move To Adelaide Will Generate 400 Jobs and Boost CBD Living and Lifestyle." - The Advertiser
Against that background of economic and property performance, Adelaide is one of Australia’s most consistent markets, a status it has maintained over the past 12 months. It remains the busiest market in capital city Australia and one that is forecast by several analysts to be a national leader on price growth in 2019 and beyond.
SA, dominated by Adelaide, has impressed with its steady performance in the past five years. Each of the past 20 quarters has recorded between 8,000 and 9,500 dwelling sales. Adelaide continues to record high numbers of suburbs with growing sales demand, well above the levels seen in most of the capital cities.
This has produced multiple years of steady price growth, without generating a price boom – yet.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only a few percent in Adelaide house prices overall, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.
It’s noteworthy that many of the millionaire suburbs have recorded big growth in their median prices in past 12 months. Uplift in the premium market is often an early signal of a market upcycle.
The growth is not all confined to the top end: there are suburbs with growth above 10% spread across all price ranges. This reinforces the reality that out-performing areas can be found even when the overall market appears to be moderate.
Adelaide has a broad geographical spread of LGAs with good numbers of growth markets. There are seven municipalities which have five or more suburbs with rising sales trajectories leading to price growth. This means there is growth momentum across the metropolitan area.
The leading precinct, with 12 growth suburbs (which makes it a nation-leading market), is Port Adelaide Enfield - which is likely to attract growing interest as the massive project to build Navy vessels unfolds.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide, has been a market leader for the past 12-18 months and continues to be.
A new challenger in Adelaide is the West Torrens LGA, which is situated between the CBD and the beaches – and offers wonderful value for money, relative to its location. Most suburbs have median house prices in the $500000s.
Another contender is the Tea Tree Gully LGA, which offers a good location relative to major jobs nodes and the Adelaide CBD, good local infrastructure and a high level of housing affordability. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Adelaide flies under the radar as one of our strongest capital city property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The vast majority of NSW Regional markets have price levels higher than 12 months ago – 85% of the locations in our latest survey have recorded growth in the past year.
Hotspotting has surveyed 303 significant markets across the state outside of Sydney (we exclude small markets with fewer than 30 sales in a year, as small sales samples provided distorted medians and unreliable figures on growth or decline). 
Of these, 171 (56%) have recorded median price growth above 5% and a further 88 (29%) have had growth between 1% and 5%.
The 171 locations with growth above 5% included 78 places which had double-digit price growth in the past 12 months.
It provides quite a stark contrast to the trends in Sydney.
Our survey reveals only 11 Regional NSW locations where prices have dropped by more than 5% and another 33 where prices have fallen marginally (between 1% and 5%).
The regional growth has been led by 14 markets with growth of 20% or more: 
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Ballina units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Berry houses (up 36%), </li>
<li class="li1">Broken Hill houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casino units (up 31%), </li>
<li class="li1">Casuarina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Crestwood houses (up 25%),</li>
<li class="li1">Moruya houses (up 23%), </li>
<li class="li1">Sawtell units (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Catalina houses (up 20%), </li>
<li class="li1">Shelly Beach houses (up 29%), </li>
<li class="li1">Wangi Wangi houses (up 40%), </li>
<li class="li1">Uranga houses (up 21%), </li>
<li class="li1">Tura Beach units (up 26%), and </li>
<li class="li1">Taree units (up 20%).</li>
</ul>
The Newcastle region (above) continues to be strong on price growth. The LGAs of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens all have multiple suburbs with solid to strong median price growth in the past year.
Lake Macquarie markets with rising prices include Belmont, Belmont North, Cardiff, Cardiff South, Caves Beach, Edgeworth, Macquarie Hills, Speers Point, Swansea, Wangi Wangi and Warners Bay.
Other precincts with significant numbers of locations with solid-to-strong price growth include the Central Coast, the Tweed region, Byron Bay and Ballina.
In terms of locations with rising demand, as measured by quarterly sales activity, this Autumn 2019 survey has found 61 Regional NSW locations with markets trending upwards, up from 53 in the Summer 2019 survey but down on the 70 rising markets identified in the Spring 2018 analysis.
There are new growth leaders revealed in this survey: the Lake Macquarie LGA beside Newcastle has six rising markets while the Wagga Wagga LGA has five.
As we have recorded in previous reports, the Hunter Region is a growth market – the LGAs of Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter (Scone) all present markets where buyer demand is trending higher.
Other centres where markets are busy include the municipalities of Queanbeyan-Palerang, Albury, Ballina, Bathurst, Tamworth and Armidale. Smaller centres with momentum include Parkes, Kyogle, Kempsey, Mudgee, Griffith, Glen Innes, Forbes, Cootamundra , Young and Broken Hill.
A number of major markets that were previously leaders in Regional NSW are now showing signs of having passed their peaks in terms of sales demand, although several of these continue to deliver good price growth.
The Central Coast still has a small number of growth suburbs, but a much greater number of plateau markets – and now there are four we have classified as declining markets. 
This market is perhaps more influenced by Sydney than most in the Regional NSW and the level of sales activity has declined recently – although some locations still have price levels well above those of a year ago, including Shelly Beach (29%), Ettalong Beach (17%), Halekulani (11%), Saratoga (11%) and Wamberal (13%).
Newcastle still has four suburbs classified as rising markets, but many more than are plateau or consistency markets. There are similar trends with Wollongong, Shoalhaven, Shellharbour, the Southern Highlands and the Blue Mountains – notably, most of them places quite close to Sydney.
While our survey found only 11 Regional NSW markets with median prices down more than 5% in the past year, five of them were in the Wollongong LGA, providing further evidence that this previously strong market is now past its peak.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Regional New South Wales continues to see property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While media obsesses over big city markets where prices are falling, the nation’s hottest markets keep flying under the radar screens of all but the best-informed investors.
I’ve written a lot about Regional Victoria, which I regard as the nation’s strongest market, in terms of both busy sales activity and big price increases, as well as affordable prices and good rental yields.
Most property watchers will be aware of the strength of markets like Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, but new contenders keep popping up, many of them locations most people would know little about – or have never heard of.
During my most recent Live Q &amp; A on social media, someone asked what I thought about the market in Warburton (pictured top). I had to admit I knew little about the town. But something is happening in Warburton, up in the Yarra Ranges 70km east of central Melbourne. Its median price has risen 17% in the past year to reach $485,000.
Locations with those kind of growth numbers are the norm, not the exception, in Regional Victoria right now. And new ones keep emerging, replacing the early movers as market leaders.
This is because some of the state’s regional markets have passed their peaks. Geelong, for example, has been one of the nation’s most prolific markets in the past two years, but sales activity is no longer growing. It now has more plateau markets than rising ones. 
Other regions where demand has passed its peak (but price growth remains high) include the LGAs of Cardinia (Pakenham, Officer, Bunyip and Emerald), Baw Baw (Warragul, Drouin and Trafalgar), Surf Coast (Anglesea, Apollo Bay and Torquay), Bass Coast (Cowes, Inverloch and Wonthaggi) and Macedon Ranges (Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Woodend).
But new growth markets continue to occur across Victoria. 
At Portland in the far south-west of the state, quarterly sales have been trending steadily upwards for the past two years. With a median house price of $235,000, affordability is a strong attraction, as well as the seaside lifestyle and the noted fishing resource.
Also in the south-west, there’s rising activity in Warrnambool, with median prices up 7% in Koroit and 5% in Warrnambool, while in nearby Port Fairy the median house price has risen 26% to $630,000.
In the Central Goldfields, quarterly sales in Maryborough have increased from 48 to 55 to 71 in the past year and its median house price has grown 18% to $230,000.
In the far east of the state, numerous locations have rising demand, including Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance. The median price in Lakes Entrance has grown 13% to $325,000 in the past year, while Metung is up 7% to $375,000.
Other Regional Victoria markets with growing signs of uplift include Bright (up 17% to $575,000), Shepparton (up 5% to $275,000), Wangaratta (up 14% to $315,000) and Wodonga (up 3% to $350,000).
Another location that blipped on our radar screen recently, thanks to a client inquiry, is the town of Benalla, where the median house price has increased 10% in the past 12 months, but remains attractively cheap at $275,000. One of the big local drivers is a business which has won a major contract with Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project, creating 400 local jobs.
And then there’s Echuca. After watching this market chug along steadily for years, I’ve been forced to include it in the new edition of Top 5 Regional Victoria Hotspots - because, well, it can no longer be ignored.
Echuca is one of those strong regional centres which form the backbone of the nation in industries like agriculture, tourism and manufacturing – and while many people have heard of it, few have ever been there.
Hotspotting has often featured Echuca in The Price Predictor Index on the National Top 50 list of most consistent markets, as measured by quarterly sales volumes. Indeed, in one of our 2017 editions of the quarterly report, we named it the nation’s most consistent market.
And it keeps on keeping on, driven by a strong and diversified local economy, and steady growth. In the past 12 months, its median house price has lifted 16% to $365,000.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Real estate hotspots continue to emerge in regional Victoria: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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The Perth market is an example of how misleading – and indeed worthless – are the price figures published by research firms and mindlessly recycled by media.
According to most of the generalised data (one figure to describe an entire large city), Perth prices are down – but an in-depth analysis shows there are growth markets sprouting across the Perth metro area.
Domain, the ABS, SQM Research and realestate.com.au report that Perth houses prices, in annual terms, are down by between 2.2% and 3.6%. CoreLogic, always the odd one out with more negative numbers, says Perth is down 7.6%.
But our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that those generalised figures tell us nothing that’s useful. Against a background where most of the market data depicts recovery, 40% of Perth suburbs have median prices higher than a year ago.
Overall, the Perth market is the strongest it’s been since it lapsed into downturn five years ago (in general alignment with events in the resources sector). Vacancies are down (from 4.1% a year ago to 2.9% now, according to SQM), rents are rising again (according to most sources, including rent.com.au, SQM and the REIWA) and sales activity is up (there are more suburbs with rising buyer demand than at any time in the past five years). 
Recovery is under way – and this is starting to deliver price growth in some markets.
Our suburb-by-suburb analysis of 216 Perth markets shows that 85 have median prices higher than a year ago (58 have risen by less than 5% and 27 have risen 5% or more) and 131 suburbs have medians still lower than a year ago (72 are down by less than 5% and 59 have dropped 5% or more).
That means 40% of Perth suburbs have rising prices and 60% still have prices down.
Many of the locations with price growth are upmarket areas. Growth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million include Claremont (up 18%), Ardross (up 5%), East Fremantle (7%), Floreat (5%)_, Mosman Park (8%), South Perth (5%), Subiaco (7%) and West Leederville (10%). But the standout market is Mount Pleasant, where the median has risen 26% to $1.27 million in the past year.
Beyond the millionaire suburbs, growth markets include Brabham (up 21% to $395,000), Kensington (up 19% to $895,000) and West Perth (up 16% to $750,000).
There are also a number of suburbs which have recorded double-digit declines in their median prices. They are spread across the metropolitan area and the various price ranges, but a standout struggle market is the Kwinana LGA in the south, a noted affordable area for young buyers. Sales activity is down, against the general rising trend in Perth, in several Kwinana suburbs - and median prices are down in Bertram (7%), Leda (11%), Medina (6%), Orelia (17%) and Parmelia (10%). Most of these suburbs now have medians in the low-to-mid $200,000s, making it the cheapest precinct in the Perth market.
Overall, however, the data on prices across Perth is the most positive it has been in five years.
The outlook is even more optimistic when we examine sales activity. The number of suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets (53) is a record for Perth since we began our quarterly sales surveys four years ago.
The trend continues to be led by standout LGAs like Joondalup, Melville, Stirling and Wanneroo, with the Canning LGA emerging recently as a new growth contender.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Where the Perth property market is on the rise: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The number of growth markets in Regional Queensland is rising, helped by recovery in resources-related regional centres. Mackay is now the most upwardly-mobile market, having overtaken the softening Sunshine Coast market, and Gladstone is now showing signs of recovery, with some of its suburbs rising.
Regional Queensland markets collectively have improved in the past year or so: in the past five quarterly surveys of sales activity by Hotspotting, the number of locations with growing demand has increased from 30 to 36 to 40 to 45 to 48. 
The number of growth markets had decreased sharply in the late 2017 survey but showed steady improvement in 2018 and this has continued into 2019. 
The other key feature is the number of Regional Queensland markets with price growth. We analysed price movements in 313 markets and found 203 (65%) have median prices higher than a year ago. Of the 203 growth markets, 99 have recorded median price growth of 5% or more, while another 104 markets have increased by less than 5%.
Of the higher growth markets, 42 have increased by more than 10%, including 15 which have grown 20% or more. Some of the highest annual growth in median prices has been recorded in mining towns Emerald (up 24%), Clermont (up 33%) and Dysart (24%), but these are rising from a low base after several years of downturn.
A number of unit markets have recorded high growth in the median prices, including Noosa Heads (31%) and Peregian Springs (23%) on the Sunshine Coast; Airlie Beach (26%) in the Whitsundays; Bilinga (26%), Broadbeach Waters (27%) and Coolangatta (25%) on the Gold Coast; and East Toowoomba (29%) in the inland regional city of Toowoomba. 
Other growth markets are Sunshine Coast lifestyle locations Sunshine Beach (40%), Eumundi (23%) and Doonan (21%).
A standout characteristic is the recovery in resources-related markets which have spent the past few years in downturn. This trend is headed by Mackay, which now has rising demand coupled with much lower vacancies, and some suburbs are now showing good price growth.
Emerald, which is located near the mines of the Bowen Basin and the Galilee Basin, is a standout: quarterly sales have been 51, 57, 66, 62, 60, 76 and 78, while the median house price has risen 24% to $310,000 in the past 12 months. The trend here is a prime example of the recovery in the resources-related towns.
There’s further evidence of revival in Gladstone, in addition to the steady reduction in vacancies (now below 3%). In our latest analysis we have classified six Gladstone suburbs as rising markets and three suburbs (Clinton, Kin Kora and West Gladstone) have median house prices higher than a year ago. But the market remains patchy – some suburbs are still classified as decline or danger markets and most suburbs still have median prices lower than a year ago (but it’s significant that most of those suburbs have recorded an uplift in prices in the most recent quarter).
As always, never forget that markets that have strong links to the resources sector are volatile and are prone to major downturns. They’re not good places for risk-averse investors.
The larger, more diversified regional centres of Queensland continue to have steady markets, headed by Cairns and the Fraser Coast. Cairns has seven suburbs with rising sales activity, but prices have yet to react to improved demand – most Cairns suburbs have median prices lower than a year ago, although there are exceptions like Caravonica, Whitfield and Yorkeys Knob.
The Fraser Coast region, centred on Hervey Bay, now has six rising suburbs, like rapidly-improving Urangan. Toogoom, Tinana and Kawungan have all recorded strong price uplift in the past year.
Toowoomba remains a solid market without yet showing any overt growth signs, while Townsville has suffered setbacks from the recent major flooding.
The Sunshine Coast, which for some time has been the strongest of the Queensland markets, no longer has that mantle. It now has few suburbs with rising demand, but many plateau markets –which suggests this market may have passed its peak in terms of demand.
But it’s still producing strong price outcomes. Of the 99 Regional Queensland markets with annual price growth above 5%, 38 are in the Sunshine Coast region – plus another 24 suburbs have growth of less than 5%. Both house and apartment markets in and around Noosa continue to be leading performers on price growth. 
Sunshine Coast markets with annual growth above 10% include the Doonan, Eumundi, Mooloolaba, Maleny, Sunshine Beach, Woombye, Wurtulla, Pomona, Twin Waters and Peregian Beach house markets, as well as the Golden Beach, Noosa Heads, Noosaville, Peregian Springs and Warana unit markets.
As we reported in the previous edition, the post-Games boost predicted by some has not eventuated on the Gold Coast. This market was strong from 2015 to 2017 because of the pre-Commonwealth Games construction boom. 
Since then the growth has subsided and it’s difficult to find any growth suburbs (in terms of sales activity) in Gold Coast City, but 41 suburbs classified as either plateau or consistency markets – plus a couple of decline markets. The price outcomes are also mixed: 57 suburbs have median prices higher than a year ago, but there are 27 with prices lower than last year.
A notable trend on the Gold Coast is that many of the best performers on price growth are apartment markets – but not the iconic beachside enclaves like Surfers Paradise, Main Beach and Broadbeach. The unit markets showing growth are in the inland suburbs like Ashmore, Benowa, Elanora, Helensvale, Pacific Pines and Mudgeeraba – or the beachside suburbs outside the glitter strip, like Bilinga, Coolangatta, Palm Beach and Runaway Bay.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Mackay leads regional Queensland price growth surge: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The biggest recurring problem for real estate is politicians who don’t understand the industry. Which is pretty much all of them, on both sides of politics.
They also display a chronic inability to think through the consequences of their policies designed to impact housing markets. This sad truth is evident in the policies from both the major parties in the impending Federal Election.
We’re going into Saturday’s poll with no policies from any of the major parties that address the fundamental problems of the housing industry, of which affordability is the biggest. What they’ve served up just fiddles around the edges of the problem.
The Liberal Party has announced a plan that will make it easier for first-time buyers to get loans with smaller deposits, by supporting loans to people who have saved 5% of the purchase price. Federal Labor has given a “me, too” response to that policy (and why not, they’re spending like drunken sailors, why not just add this to the national credit card as well).
But the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme will be available to only a limited number of FHB borrowers and it fails to address the core issues – the price they will pay for properties and the associated costs of getting into the market.
Labor’s core policy is changing negative gearing tax benefits. This is a revenue measure dressed up as a policy to improve housing affordability but clearly it won’t make a positive difference, while creating myriad problems elsewhere.
Whenever they’re asked whether their negative gearing policy will force down house prices, Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen are adamant that it won’t. That being the case, how does it improve affordability? The answer is: it doesn’t. It’s purely a revenue measure.
What the policy will do is put first-home buyers in direct competition with investors for new properties.
This is the polar opposite of the Labor’s stated intentions, because they say they want to prevent FHBs having to compete with investors. These clowns simply don’t understand their own policy or its consequences.
Currently most first-time buyers have to buy or build a new home if they want a state grant. And investors are encouraged to buy new by the recent changes to depreciation benefits. Now Labor says investors will get tax benefits through negative gearing only if they buy new.
So everyone will be compelled to buy new rather than established property. Labor’s policy puts FHBs on a collision course with investors.
The thing is, most buyers don’t want to buy new because it’s usually considerably more expensive than a comparable second-hand home. The core problem in real estate, and none of the major parties are addressing this, is the high cost of creating new dwellings in Australia. 
The costs are so high because all three levels of government milk real estate for revenue. They treat the housing industry as their favourite cash cow. Stamp duty, land tax, capital gains tax, GST, rates, infrastructure charges, application fees, the list goes on and on.
Every time a state or territory government brings down a budget, it adds to the affordability problem by increasing existing imposts or imposing new ones. It’s relentless and it’s the core of the affordability problem.
Everyone (if Labor wins) will be pushed to buy new property but the prices are unreasonably high, thanks to our cynical politicians.
This is occurring at a time when new supply is drying up, partly because federal and state policies have extinguished the contribution of foreign investors – officially to help FHBs but in truth just another grab for cash. 
The surcharges placed on foreign investors in Australian real estate are revenue-raising measures, pure and simple, but they’re hurting Australian buyers by killing off projects that can no longer make the required level of pre-sales to get funding. The reduced supply is just another component of the affordability problem. 
Another unforeseen consequence of the Labor policy will be a revival of the spruiker industry. With most categories of buyers being compelled to buy new – e.g. off-the-plan apartments – we will see a revival of the get-rich-quick seminars that used to proliferate, where crooks make lots of money by ripping off unsuspecting consumers.
So it's not much of a choice this Saturday for voters who care about the housing industry and its related issues, like housing affordability. 
Labor proposes to increase the taxation burden on the real estate industry, which will worsen the problem, and the Liberal pitch may make it easier for FHBs to get a loan to buy a home, but it won’t make the cost of the home cheaper.
It’s a choice between dumb and dumber.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
Currently MOST first-time buyers have to buy or build a new home if they want a state grant
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FHB deposit guarantee scheme shows politicians don't understand the housing market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Media portrays Sydney as a market of universal and relentless decline, but our analysis shows there’s a lot more to the story. While sales activity and prices are down generally, there are many different scenarios playing out across the Greater Sydney Area. 
In Hotspotting’s latest quarterly survey of sales activity, we can find only three suburbs where sales activity is trending higher, but there are 90 suburbs with steady, consistent sales and a similar number of plateau markets (where activity has dropped from the peak but remains at solid levels).
And there are 61 suburbs classified as decline markets and 14 which we regard as danger markets, with the Sydney City, Parramatta, Bayside and Canterbury-Bankstown LGAs heading the list of markets to avoid.
Our analysis of 416 suburban markets in the Greater Sydney Area shows that 77% of them have median prices lower than a year so, while 23% have higher prices. Given the negative sensation about Sydney in mainstream media, many people would be surprised to learn that there are 95 Sydney markets where prices are not falling.
That includes 36 where median prices have risen by more than 5%, led by the top end of the Sydney market (suburbs with median prices above $2 million). Suburbs with median house prices above $2 million have recorded trend-defying growth, including Bellevue Hill (up 17%), Vaucluse (15%), Collaroy (22%), Palm Beach (17%), Artarmon (28%), Abbotsford (16%), Darling Point (12%) and Neutral Bay (17%), among others.
In another interesting trend that defies the general media rhetoric, there are 44 suburbs where the median house price is down but the media apartment price is up. This reflects the reality that many of the Sydney markets where prices have continued to grow against the overall trend are apartment precincts – it’s not happening across the board, but it’s a significant sub-plot in the Sydney market.
Our analysis of the Sydney market shows why the generalisations prevalent in media are so misleading for consumers. This Autumn survey has given ratings to 258 Sydney suburbs: 3 rising, 90 plateau, 90 consistency, 61decline and 14 danger markets. The absence of growth markets and the dominance of struggling ones is the over-riding trend, but there are other stories to be told in the Sydney market.
The strongest precincts are those that are displaying stubborn consistency of sales activity in the face of the general downturn.
The Sutherland LGA has two of only three rising suburbs (Jannali and Kirrawee), as well as five plateau and four consistency suburbs. The median price for Jannali units has risen 22% in the past year, while Kirrawee houses are up 3%. It’s notable that median prices for units have risen in many Sutherland suburbs, including Caringbah, Cronulla, Caringbah South, Gymea and Miranda, as well as Jannali.
Other precincts that are showing solidity, with plenty of consistency and plateau suburbs (and no decline or danger markets), including LGAs at the more affordable end of the market like Blacktown, Camden, Penrith, Wollondilly and Campbelltown.
The Blacktown LGA has one rising, three plateau and 10 consistency suburbs. A characteristic of this market is that median prices are down, but only a few percent in most suburbs – including Plumpton (-2%), Ropes Crossing (-2.3%), Schofields (-1.2%), Marsden Park (-0.4%), Blacktown units (-2%) and Mt Druitt units (-2.8%).
Other solid markets include the LGAs of Inner west, Northern Beaches, North Sydney,  Woollahra, Randwick and Fairfield.
Inner West suburbs where median prices are higher than a year ago include Annandale (units), Camperdown, Lilyfield, Rozelle (units), Dulwich Hill (units) and Stanmore (units).
Standout price performances in the steady Northern Beaches precinct include Collaroy, Narrabeen, Avalon Beach, Manly (units), Seaforth (units) and Newport (units).
The weakest precincts of the Sydney market are the LGAs of Parramatta, Sydney City, Bayside and Canterbury-Bankstown.
Parramatta has six suburbs which we classify as danger markets: those where sales activity is sharply down, prices are falling and vacancies are high. These suburbs are Carlingford, Epping, North Parramatta, Parramatta, Wentworth Point and Rosehill. This LGA also has six suburbs ranked as decline markets.
Median prices are down sharply for North Parramatta houses (20%), Parramatta houses (30%), and Rosehill units (22%).
Sydney City has seven declining suburbs and two danger markets (Haymarket and Waterloo).
The Canterbury-Bankstown LGA has nine suburbs classified as declining markets, based on a sharp decrease in sales activity over the past 12-18 months: Bankstown, Belmore, Campsie, Canterbury, Croydon Park, Lakemba, Padstow, Panania and Roselands.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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