Design-led developer-builder Lowe Living has unveiled its latest residential development, Jardin House, marking its first foray into Melbourne's blue-chip City of Boroondara.

Located a short walk from Camberwell Junction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House</a> has been designed to appeal to affluent local downsizers and established families seeking a low-maintenance alternative to the large homes that have long defined Camberwell and surrounding suburbs.

The project will comprise a collection of two and three-bedroom apartments ranging from 92 sqm to 280 sqm, alongside a limited number of penthouse residences featuring rooftop terraces spanning more than 100 sqm, with optional private pools.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372212]

Lowe Living Co-Founder and Managing Director Tim Lowe said Camberwell represented a natural next step for the developer as it expands into some of Melbourne's most tightly held residential markets.

"Jardin House is an important project for our team as it marks the next evolution of our portfolio into different well-established blue-chip pockets of Melbourne," Lowe said.

"Camberwell, with its incredible walkability, family-led neighbourhood feel and superb access to education and transport, makes it a natural choice for us."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372227]

Designed by Tristan Wong Architects, with interiors by Hecker Guthrie and landscaping by Acre, the development takes inspiration from the Art Deco architecture that remains a defining feature of many of Camberwell's established streets.

A curved facade, arched openings, textured brickwork and sculpted forms reference the suburb's architectural heritage, while extensive landscaping softens the building's presence and creates a strong connection to the surrounding tree-lined streetscape.

The project will be set behind a secure gated entrance, with residents arriving through landscaped gardens designed to create a transition between the public realm and private residences.

Inside, the residences feature natural stone and timber finishes, full-height glazing, Miele appliances and generous open-plan living areas designed for long-term owner occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372225]

While the apartments themselves have been designed to attract discerning owner-occupiers, it is the amenity offering that sets Jardin House apart from many other boutique projects currently launching across Melbourne.

The centrepiece is a 350 sqm private bathhouse curated in partnership with Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse founder Lyndall Mitchell.

The wellness precinct includes mineral pools, hydrotherapy experiences, a Himalayan salt room, sauna, steam room, cold plunge pools and dedicated relaxation spaces, creating what Lowe Living describes as a private wellness retreat exclusively for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372222]

The collaboration follows Lowe Living's recent partnership with Aurora at Maison Savoy in Brighton, although Jardin House is the first project to incorporate both indoor and outdoor wellness experiences.

Emma Lowe, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Lowe Living, said wellness was becoming an increasingly important consideration for apartment buyers.

"Collaborating with Lyndall Mitchell from Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse for a second time is an intentional nod to creating residences that are more than just homes, but a way to enrich the lives of our residents through wellness and longevity," Lowe said.

The amenity offering is complemented by a Technogym fitness studio, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and concierge services.

The launch comes as developers increasingly target Melbourne's established eastern suburbs, where rising land values, ageing housing stock and growing downsizer demand are creating opportunities for boutique apartment projects.

Lowe said the company expects significant generational wealth transfer across suburbs such as Camberwell in coming years, creating further demand for luxury apartment living.

"Camberwell is a blue-chip suburb where homes regularly transact for multiple millions of dollars," he said.

"The generational change of wealth in these locations expected in the coming years is significant, so we see an opportunity to create exclusive residences that appeal to older families and downsizers in order to meet this demand."

Apartments at Jardin house start from $1,195,000. The project forms part of Lowe Living's near-$1 billion portfolio of new developments across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146717]

Joel Robinson

Lowe Living launches Jardin House in Camberwell

As <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> continues its transition from a commercial centre into a more layered residential and lifestyle precinct, a new generation of apartment developments is reshaping expectations around scale, amenity, and long-term liveability.

Improved transport connections through the Victoria Cross Metro, continued investment in dining and public spaces, and a constrained supply of new luxury apartments have sharpened demand for homes that combine proximity to the CBD with the privacy and outlook traditionally associated with harbourside houses.

At 177 Walker Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a>’s new apartment development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> enters the market with a distinctly residential approach to high-rise living. The 30-level tower will deliver 161 residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to sub-penthouses and a full-floor penthouse, all oriented to capture uninterrupted views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, and out toward the Pacific Ocean.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6395]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project takes advantage of the site’s natural topography and elevated position above the harbour. Rather than relying on density alone, the architecture focuses on outlook, orientation, and spatial flow, with every apartment occupying a corner position to maximise natural light and cross ventilation.

Rothelowman says the site itself shaped much of the architectural response.

“The site has a long history in terms of its inevitable transformation and when we came in, we took inspiration from the idea of reestablishing a sense of the site’s natural terrain and fall. Our scheme aims to integrate with the terrain and the landscape, using the undulating site to slowly reveal glimpses and views of the harbour. The rotation of the tower off grid means every apartment has a view and is naturally cross ventilated. The building's colour palette is quintessentially Sydney, with bronze and sandstone and a luminescent green colour in the glass, making it very earthy and grounded in its location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Inside the residences, the emphasis moves toward larger-format living typically associated with standalone homes. Kitchens sit at the centre of the apartments, connecting directly to open-plan dining and living areas before extending outward into expansive winter gardens and balconies. Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, integrated appliances, and custom metal detailing are used throughout, while three distinct interior palettes, Terrace, Opera, and Harbour, allow buyers to personalise the spaces without compromising the architectural consistency of the project.

The larger residences place particular attention on separation between entertaining and private zones. In many apartments, master suites occupy the outer corners of the floorplates, allowing bedrooms to benefit from floor-to-ceiling glazing and harbour outlooks independent of the living spaces. Dressing rooms and ensuites continue the material palette through fluted detailing, freestanding baths, and layered stone finishes.

Rothelowman says the design intent centred on creating homes that feel enduring rather than transient.

“Our philosophy is all about the way people live in these spaces, and we wanted to create homes that reflect the quality of life in this unique Sydney location. The apartments showcase expansive living spaces that are generous, sophisticated, and bold, with the ability to connect with views throughout each apartment.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=353235]

A separate four-storey amenity building known as The Pavilion expands the residential offering beyond the apartments themselves. Positioned alongside the tower, the building consolidates wellness, recreation, and social spaces into a dedicated resident retreat. Facilities include a 20-metre rooftop pool and sundeck, sauna, spa, ice bath, wellness studio, gymnasium, concierge service, wine cellar, residents’ lounge, private dining spaces, and dedicated co-working areas with meeting rooms and boardroom facilities.

The amenity mix reflects the buyer profile emerging in North Sydney, where owner-occupiers and downsizers are increasingly prioritising convenience, apartment scale, and long-term usability over purely investment-driven decisions.

The Walden also represents a significant milestone for ALAND, marking the company’s first major move into Sydney’s inner-city luxury apartment market after more than two decades delivering large-scale residential communities across Greater Sydney. Founder Andrew Hrsto says the Walker Street site stood apart because of both its positioning and its rarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6390]

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic.”

At launch, The Walden recorded more than $103 million in sales, with buyers drawn to the project’s harbour positioning, apartment scale, and proximity to the Metro, which now connects North Sydney to Barangaroo in three minutes and Martin Place in five.

ALAND has commenced construction, and is expecting a completion date in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

The Walden pairs house-scale living with North Sydney connectivity

The ACT will become the first jurisdiction in Australia to abolish stamp duty for all first home buyers, with no income caps and no property price thresholds from 1 July.

The move, announced as part of the ACT Budget, completes a key election commitment from the Barr Government and removes what Chief Minister Andrew Barr described as one of the biggest barriers to entering the housing market. The reform forms part of the ACT's long-running transition away from transaction taxes and towards a broader-based property tax system.

"This budget marks a major milestone in our long-term tax reform program," Barr said, adding that the government had maintained a sustained focus on removing barriers to home ownership. He said stamp duty had long been one of the largest upfront hurdles facing buyers and that from July, "that barrier is gone" for first home buyers in the Territory.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=350986]

The changes come alongside a range of measures designed to encourage new housing supply, including support for the delivery of so-called "missing middle" housing such as terraces, townhouses and low-rise multi-unit developments.

The announcement has renewed debate around whether the ACT's approach could provide a blueprint for improving housing affordability nationally.

New research from OurTop10.com.au, conducted by Primara Research, suggests the Territory's decade-long reform agenda has produced outcomes unmatched elsewhere in Australia.

While stamp duty costs have increased by an average 67 per cent nationally over the past decade, the ACT has recorded growth of just 15 per cent, the lowest increase of any jurisdiction.

The Territory has also emerged as one of the strongest performers on housing delivery. Based on population-weighted housing targets, the ACT is sitting less than one per cent behind its target. Victoria is the next closest at seven per cent behind, while the national average sits 25 per cent below target. New South Wales is tracking 39 per cent behind.

The latest reform removes one of the final barriers facing first home buyers in Canberra.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=359152]

The average Australian home buyer currently pays $61,714 in stamp duty. In the ACT, that figure is $38,399 despite the Territory having the third-highest median house price in the country.

Until now, the ACT's first home buyer concession scheme only applied to purchases up to $1.02 million, around $51,000 below Canberra's median house price of $1.071 million. In practical terms, many first home buyers were unable to access the median-priced home without losing the concession.

From July, those restrictions disappear.

Every first home buyer in the ACT will pay no stamp duty, regardless of income or purchase price.

Canberra remains one of Australia's most expensive housing markets, with dwelling values increasing 82 per cent over the past decade. However, that growth ranks only 11th among Australia's 15 major housing markets, suggesting affordability pressures have been less severe than in many other parts of the country.

Simon Ma, CEO of OurTop10.com.au, said the latest reforms recognise that many first home buyers have simply outgrown thresholds set years ago.

"Many first home buyers aren't just looking for a way onto the ladder, they want a home their family can actually live in," Ma said.

"In a market where the median house price is over a million dollars, a concession scheme that cuts out at $1.02 million was never going to get them there.

"Removing the ceiling entirely means ACT first home buyers can now pursue the home they actually want, rather than limiting themselves to a price point designed for a very different market."

Whether other states follow remains to be seen. But at a time when most jurisdictions are struggling to improve affordability while also increasing housing supply, the ACT has quietly become the national test case for both.

15% stamp duty growth. Just 1% off the national housing target. Zero stamp duty for FHBs. Is the ACT the blueprint for the great Australian dream?

ACT abolishes stamp duty for first home buyers

A rooftop pool and spa overlooking the Brisbane CBD, private dining spaces, expansive landscaped gardens and a residents' lounge are set to crown <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/callista-on-park-west-end-49-mollison-street-west-end-qld-4101">Callista on Park</a>, the final residential building within Brisbane's West Village precinct.

The rooftop amenity collection has been designed as an extension of the lifestyle already established throughout West Village, providing residents with a series of indoor and outdoor spaces that capitalise on the building's elevated position above West End.

A swimming pool and heated spa form the centrepiece of the rooftop offering, surrounded by landscaped gardens developed through a collaboration between developer Sekisui House and ASPECT Studios. The design incorporates expansive lawn areas surrounded by English garden-inspired planting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=370648]

Residents will also have access to two barbecue and outdoor dining areas positioned to take advantage of views across Brisbane's skyline, neighbouring Mollison Park, and the surrounding inner-city landscape.

For larger gatherings, the rooftop includes a private dining room centred around a substantial stone island bench, complete with a full kitchen and a 10-seat dining table set beneath four-metre-high ceilings. The space has been designed to overlook both the rooftop gardens and the Brisbane CBD skyline.

A separate residents' lounge provides an additional indoor retreat connected to the broader rooftop amenity offering, creating another space for residents to work, relax or entertain guests.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=370647]

The attention to detail extends beyond the rooftop.

Upon arrival, residents will enter through a lobby featuring a bespoke ceiling light installation developed in collaboration between Sekisui House and Alcorn Middleton Architecture. The arrival experience is complemented by private resident mailboxes and carefully considered interior finishes designed to reflect the premium positioning of the building.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=372541]

The amenity offering forms part of Callista on Park, the final residential release within the decade-long transformation of the former Peters Ice Cream Factory site into West Village, one of Brisbane's most established mixed-use communities.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hutchinson-builders">Hutchinson Builders</a>, Callista represents the most premium residential offering within the masterplanned precinct.

Construction is now entering its final stages, with scaffolding beginning to come down and completion expected in the first quarter of 2027.

Prices for the three-bedroom plus MPR apartments start from just over $2.6 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134800 project_image_fid=351535]

Callista will mark the final opportunity to purchase within West Village, where residents have direct access to more than 35 retail, dining, wellness and medical operators including Harris Farm Markets, Woolworths, Function Well and Goodlife Health Clubs, Metro Arts, and a growing collection of restaurants and cafés.

Located just 800 metres from the Brisbane CBD, the precinct also places residents within walking distance of South Bank, West End's dining scene, riverfront parklands and major public transport connections.

For Sekisui House, which has delivered more than two million homes globally, Callista serves as the concluding piece of the West Village masterplan, bringing together the precinct's heritage character, parkland setting and emphasis on walkability in a final collection of larger-format residences.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134800]

Rooftop pool, private dining and skyline gardens to crown West Village's final apartment release, Callista on Park

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/wahroonga-nsw-2076">Wahroonga</a>’s enduring appeal has long been tied to its balance of bushland, established amenity, and access to some of Sydney’s most respected education and healthcare institutions.

Along Fox Valley Road, that combination is becoming increasingly sought after by buyers looking to remain connected to the Upper North Shore lifestyle while prioritising walkability, wellbeing, and convenience.

Developer Capital Corporation's initial vision of a 62-hectare site on Fox Valley Road was that they could create their own walkable community, bordered by&nbsp;more than 25 hectares of bushland and adjoining Coups Creek.

<img alt="Wahroonga" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b84917a1-0d75-49b9-888c-ddf7ebfd6692" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/NEW2026_Wahroonga_Walkway.gif?VersionId=Gk3_xi5ssYfalmwuQQ5umQakddceC31j" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-residences-at-wahroonga-estate-169-fox-valley-road-wahroonga-nsw-2076">The Residences at Wahroonga Estate</a> draws directly on the area’s natural landscape, with walking trails and green corridors linking into sections of Lane Cove National Park. The surrounding network of bushwalks, cycling tracks, and reserves reinforces the suburb’s long-standing reputation as one of Sydney’s most nature-oriented residential pockets, while still maintaining close ties to village retail and transport infrastructure.

The address places residents within minutes of Wahroonga and Turramurra villages, where cafés, local grocers, boutiques, and everyday services support a highly localised lifestyle. Popular nearby venues including The Fox Café and Breeze Valley Café provide easy options for morning coffee or casual dining, while longstanding retailers such as IGA Wahroonga Fresh and Novella Fine Books continue to anchor the area’s village character.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Wahroonga" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c4a950f7-4f05-4370-b360-b106359788e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/2026_Wahroonga_Entry_Gates.gif?VersionId=7n5kh9ymu.azYEYDemJkPgiIAfSw44oj" />

Healthcare access remains one of the defining locational advantages of the estate. Sydney Adventist Hospital, known locally as The San, sits directly adjacent and is one of the largest and most respected private hospitals in New South Wales. The hospital precinct incorporates specialist medical services, radiology, physiotherapy, and outpatient care, contributing to growing buyer demand from downsizers and owner-occupiers seeking long-term convenience and peace of mind.

Research commissioned by Capital Corporation found that health and wellbeing considerations are increasingly influencing downsizing decisions, particularly among buyers wanting to remain within familiar neighbourhoods while accessing medical infrastructure more easily.

Education has also historically underpinned demand across Wahroonga and the broader Upper North Shore. The estate sits close to several of Sydney’s leading private and independent schools, including Knox Grammar, Abbotsleigh, Barker College, Pymble Ladies’ College, Ravenswood School for Girls, and Loreto Normanhurst. Co-educational options including Wahroonga Adventist School and Sydney Adventist School further strengthen the area’s appeal to established families looking for long-term schooling pathways within a tightly held catchment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=262183]

Transport connectivity supports the suburb’s liveability without compromising its quieter residential character. Wahroonga and Turramurra train stations provide direct rail access into the Sydney CBD, while the nearby Pacific Highway and M1 motorway strengthen links across the North Shore and broader metropolitan area. At the same time, the heavily treed streetscape and low-density character continue to distinguish the precinct from more urbanised parts of Sydney.

The Residences at Wahroonga Estate forms the first stage of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/capital-corporation">Capital Corporation</a>’s broader masterplanned vision for the precinct, delivered alongside the Seventh-day Adventist Church.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=364995]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">GroupGSA</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/coco-republic-interior-design">Coco Republic</a>, the development integrates landscaped communal spaces including a pet-friendly Green Spine, resident lounge, BBQ pavilion, and direct bushland access, reinforcing the project’s focus on outdoor connection and community-based living.

Now under construction by Gold Star iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/dasco-australia">DASCO</a>, The Residences at Wahroonga Estate will deliver a collection of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments priced from $990,000, with completion anticipated in 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135247]

Capital Corporation to cater to Upper North Shore downsizers by creating walkable community at The Residences at Wahroonga Estate

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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Here’s the most remarkable statistic to emerge from the residential real estate industry this year: 32% of people think there’s a bubble.
The remarkable thing is that so few believe in the bubble BS. Media has been running bubble stories daily. Recently a new B word has taken up headline space: bloodbath, now a popular word to describe predictions from the lunatic fringe who subscribe to bubble theories.
But, according to an Investor Insight Survey, 55% of respondents said there was no property bubble and 13% were unsure.
Media, being the strange twisted animal that it is, chose to highlight the 32% who do apparently believe there’s a bubble, with the inference that this number is significantly high. My reaction was quite the opposite: that it’s amazingly low, given that media constantly tells us that one exists.
Among the many unworthy things that Nazi propaganda guy Joseph Goebbels gave to the world was the notion that “if you tell a lie big enough, and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to accept it as the truth”.
That principle, if that’s the right word, is alive and thriving in Australian media today. Most of what consumers believe to be true about real estate – the affordability crisis, the chronic housing shortage crisis, the bubble, the Great Australian Dream is dead, etc – are lies that have been repeated so often that many people accept them as truth.
This week the Australian Bureau of Statistics published its Residential Property Price Indexes, which are the latest figures to demonstrate the lie in the boom/bubble/bloodbath nonsense much beloved by tabloid media.
Sydney’s price index is up 13% and the next best is Melbourne’s 4.7% annual rise. Brisbane has managed 3.9%, Canberra 3%, Adelaide 2.5% and Hobart 1.9%. The price indexes for both Perth and Darwin have fallen slightly. The weighted average rise for the eight cities is 6.9%, but seven of the eight cities are well below that average.
I’ve scrutinised these figures, and similar data from other sources, from lots of different angles and directions. I’ve turned them upside down. I’ve looked at them in a mirror. I’ve examined them through a magnifying glass. And I cannot find a national property boom there. And without a boom, there is no bubble. And without a bubble, there is no prospect of a bloodbath.
Few media outlets reported the ABS figures, as they don’t fit with the pre-conceived story line of runaway markets, blistering price surges and world-shatter<a name="_GoBack" href=""></a>ing bubbles. Goebbels also gave us the idea, much utilised by journalists today, that you never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
The latest “bloodbath” forecast has come from a couple of attention-seeking conspiracy-theory twits who have put in a submission to yet another parliamentary inquiry in an attempt to drum up a bit of publicity for their consulting business.
They’ve predicted a bloodbath. Naturally media had a field day with it. If someone is silly enough to predict a market crash, journalists will be delighted to recycle it as news, regardless of how outlandish it is or how often the forecasters have been wrong in the past.
I’ve added this to the very large list of people who have predicted bloodbaths, bubbles bursting and markets collapsing in Australian real estate over the past 15 years.
I have a heightened awareness of such predictions because I recently conducted a research exercise for a client on the predictions newspapers and other media outlets have made about real estate prices since the start of the century.
Over 15 years there has been a constant barrage of articles making doomsday predictions about the housing market. Subsequent outcomes have proved them all wrong. Not one has been correct.
I recently published a Top 20 list of worst predictions about property prices. For example, in January 2012 visiting US spruiker Jordan Wirsz, seeking to drum up some free publicity, predicted a bloodbath in which house values would fall 60% in 2013. He forecast land values would fall 90%. 
Not surprisingly, this did not happen. There is no precedent, not in Australia nor in any other nation on planet Earth, for such a calamitous decline in values. The actual outcome? Capital city prices, on average, rose 9% in 2013 and 8% in 2014, with most of that growth occurring in Sydney.
But Wirsz’s ludicrous prediction, which should not have been published by any credible media organisation, was just one of numerous doomsday forecasts made over the past 15 years, and all of them have been proven false. They have come from US spruikers, Australian economists and the lunatic fringe brigade of anti-real estate campaigners.
But if Wirsz lobs in Australia again next month and predicts our property values will fall 100% - in other words, every property will be worth zero - newspapers around the nation will publish it, television will rush to do interviews and politicians will call for a parliamentary inquiry.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Without a boom, there is no bubble: Terry Ryder

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for August 2014 earlier this month.
At a headline level, dwelling approvals were 3.0% higher over the month and are now 14.5% year on year. With 16,810 approvals over the month there is clearly a strong level of residential development activity with monthly approvals just -5.0% lower than their recent peak.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
Of the 16,810 dwelling approvals in recorded over the month of August, 9,401 were for houses and the remaining 7,409 were mulit-unit dwellings (typically apartments).
Over the month, house approvals fell by -1.4% while unit approvals rose by 9.2%. Year-on-year, house approvals are 12.6% higher while unit approvals are up 17.1%. 
As the chart above shows, the six month trend indicates a slowing of dwelling approval numbers and it also shows that monthly movements in unit approvals tend to be much more volatile. Also remember that a multi-unit development is more risky than developing a single house and ultimately less likely to ultimately be constructed.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
Focussing on dwelling approvals on an annual basis we have seen more house and unit approvals than ever before over the 12 months to August 2014. Over the 12 month period there were 197,571 dwelling approvals, of which 111,020 were for houses and 86,552 were units. The annual number of approvals has increased by 19.2% over the past year.
Although approvals have surged, as the chart shows it is largely due to a significant lift in unit approvals. Although the number of unit approvals over the past year was at a record high, house approvals are still -6.8% lower than their previous peak over the year to July 2010 and -21.2% lower than their all-time high of 140,832 over the year to April 1989.
Historically, units have been much less likely to move from approval to construction. Units also tend to be much more likely to be owned by investors than houses. 
With the Reserve Bank flagging that deliberations are ongoing into the introduction of macroprudential policies to slow the level of investor activity in the housing market, there is potentially an even bigger than normal risk that these units won't make it to completion.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
Across the combined capital cities, there was an all-time high of 147,122 dwellings approved for construction over the 12 months to August 2014. The number of capital city dwelling approvals has increased by 21.9% over the past year. 
Over the year there were, 71,662 approvals for houses and 75,460 unit approvals with house approvals up 20.6% and unit approvals 23.2% higher.
Much like the national results you can see that unit approvals are at their higher levels while house approvals are only just approaching their previous peak levels.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
 
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-4.jpg" alt="">
Across the individual capital cities, Brisbane has recorded the greatest increase in dwelling approvals over the year (41.8%) followed by: Perth (24.9%), Adelaide (24.0%) and Sydney (23.3%). Dwelling approvals are lower over the year in Darwin (-6.8%) and Canberra (-6.4%) while Melbourne (16.3%) and Hobart (19.4%) have recorded only moderate rises in dwelling approvals. 
Despite certain cities recording significant rises in dwelling approvals, Sydney and Melbourne have accounted for more than 57% of all capital city dwelling approvals over the past year. With 26,123 dwelling approvals over the past year, approvals in Perth are at a record high while Brisbane approvals are just shy of their record high.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-5.jpg" alt="">
A key driver of the overall increase in dwelling approvals has been the rising prominence of the unit market. Over the past year, the increase in unit approvals has been greater than the increase in house approvals in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.  Although unit approvals have recorded greater increases in these cities, there has been a substantial decline in unit approvals across Hobart and falls in both Darwin and Canberra.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-6.jpg" alt="">
With more than half of all capital city dwelling approvals for units as opposed to houses, all individual capital cities except for Adelaide (31.8%), Perth (25.9%) and Hobart (7.0%) are seeing a majority of approvals for units. In Sydney, 67.7% of dwelling approvals were for units over the past year, elsewhere 53.0% were for units in Melbourne, 55.9% in Brisbane, 63.2% in Darwin and 57.9% in Canberra.
Sydney has consistently approved more units than houses since 1993 and Darwin has consistently approved more units than houses since 2003, while across the other cities it is a relatively new phenomenon.  
Melbourne has only been approving more units than houses since mid-2012, in Brisbane it has occurred since mid-2013 and in Canberra since mid-2010. Of course, there is an increasing level of demand for units, but particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane the number of units in the pipeline is largely untested in the market. 
Furthermore, units tend to be more appealing to the investor market rather than owner occupiers. While demand may currently be strong it remains to be seen whether there is enough investor demand to satisfy all of the supply in the pipeline.
Dwelling approvals remain at a very high level and with the rate of population growth slowing it is encouraging to see that supply is finally responding.  With their lower price point compared to houses and superior rental returns no doubt we are seeing a rising level of demand for units, particularly in inner city markets. 
Of course, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised concerns about the level of investment lending which is most prominent for inner city units.
If controls are introduced to slow the level of investment there may be an adverse impact on demand and subsequently values of inner city units, particularly new inner city units which are a strong target from the investment segment of the market.
 
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Units are driving dwelling approvals, but will they get built?

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Glenn Stevens' statement on interest rates was bland but holds important reminders for property investors.
It's probably a sign of how stable our economy is that we wait for the slightest change in wording when the Reserve Bank (RBA) decides on the cash rate.
Last Tuesday the RBA board met and decided to keep the official interest rate at 2.5% – not only a historically low rate compared with the 5.2% average since 1990, but also a rate that's been kept the same since August 2013.
But it was the way RBA governor Glenn Stevens expressed himself on property prices and the Australian dollar that is worth looking at during the remainder of the year and into 2015.
For more than a month we've heard strong commentary from economists about unhealthy price inflation in the property market, driven by low interest rates. Some of that comment has predicted an end to negative gearing. I haven't joined this discussion because lenders' figures don't suggest a problem in the property market, and the Bureau of Statistics' House Price Index series shows we are just slightly above the index average since 2002.
However, the RBA governor in his statement did mention investment property: "Credit growth is moderate overall, but with a further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets."
I think Stevens was right to address the property market with a bland statement like this. If nothing else, it's a reminder to property investors that they must do their homework and invest wisely regardless of what official interest rates are doing.
With an investment property, you are interested in a good location and access to infrastructure such as schools, shops, railway stations and playing parks. And you are also interested in average rentals and some historical data on rental yields.
But the first step in a good investment is buying well. This means not just paying a good price for the year, but a good price for the 10 to 20 years you want to generate income from this property. If you pay too much you'll lose on capital appreciation and it will take longer to generate clear funds from the rent.
It's one thing to get carried away at an auction and pay too much for the house you love, but an investment property is a business that must earn income and capital growth for many years.
So keep a cool head.
The other element mentioned by the RBA – that they expect the Aussie dollar to fall further against the US – is something that might give a boost to our economy. When our dollar was at parity with the US, Aussie exports were expensive and local manufacturers found it hard to compete in foreign markets.
Now that our dollar is at 85 US cents – and expected to fall further – our non-mining economy has a chance to pick up, expand operations and create jobs.
So don't be alarmed at the lack of big headlines from the Reserve Bank this month. A steady economy is a great thing when you consider the alternative.
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mbouris-tauSvXGAM2

Do your homework, whatever the interest rate

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Once again we need to ask the question: where in this nation of "chronic housing shortages" is the rental growth?
The latest Rental Report from Domain Group records virtually no rental growth in the capital cities in the September quarter. And, in annual terms, rental performance ranges from weak to nothing to negative.
The report covers the rental market for houses and for apartments in each of the eight capital cities. That's 16 rental markets in total, and in the past 12 months half of them have recorded falling rents or no growth.
The best performance in an Australian capital city is in Hobart, according to these figures, with a 4% rise in the median asking rent for units and a 3.3% rise for houses. That's a very anemic result, but it's the best in the nation apparently.
If you believe the constant rhetoric from the developer lobby, Sydney has the nation's most serious shortage of housing – yet in the September Quarter the median rent for houses did not change and the median rent for apartments fell 1%.
In annual terms, house rents in Sydney have grown a meagre 2% and apartments rents 3.1%.
The position in all the other capital cities is weaker than that.
Perth's rents have dropped around 6% in annual terms for both houses and apartments. In Canberra, the median rent for apartments is down 5% and for houses it's dropped 2.7%.
Darwin is down 2.9% (houses) and 1.8% (apartments).
Overall it's a very pallid performance and one that's inconsistent with claims of "a chronic housing shortage crisis", one that apparently demands urgent action from government.
The federal inquiry into the non-existent housing affordability problem, the one that is based on an Australian Bureau of Statistics miscount of first-home buyer numbers, is being fed a series of wish lists from groups representing builders and developers.
The common theme is that if you give developers everything they've ever wanted, they'll go away and build lots of dwellings and affordability will be miraculously transformed.
Economists, journalists and other commentators across Australia have bought the "chronic shortage" storyline and so it's accepted as fact by many people.
But there's a lack of evidence to support the idea and plenty of data that suggests the claim is nonsense – including rental performance.
The performance of rents has been so poor, yields have fallen in virtually every capital city market in the past 12 months. Only Hobart has managed to lift rental returns.
I continue to believe that the most pressing issue for markets around Australia is the opposite one, one of emerging over-supply in key locations.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au. You can email him or contact him on twitter.
 
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If there's a housing shortage, where's the rental growth?

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When Australia’s head cashier Joe Hockey proudly announced that he had nailed an illegal foreign purchase with the $39.000 million sale of Villa del Mare or Villa del Nightmare as I prefer to call it he would not have realised he had opened the largest can of worms in Australian property history. Mark my words this is a now a major election issue that must be intelligently resolved given what is actually happening now is unprecedented and will cost a party an election if it continues to go unchecked and ignored.
I have said for many years now that the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) is right up there in terms of the most hopeless departments in Canberra. As was the case with Villa del Mare you don’t need to contact FIRB all you need to do is just buy it and if investigated once the divestment order is issued just phone a friend (as was the case with Villa del Mare) and transfer the property into an Australian residents name – which is totally legal and requires no further questions. 
This now opens the flood gates for all illegal purchases to follow suit as this is the legal precedent thanks to this approved divestment order. We can also expect criminals from all over the world will be eyeing Australian real estate as a wonderful vehicle to wash the proceeds of crime. What we have now is a person on unemployment benefits can appear as the owner on say a twenty plus million dollar home due entirely to the many legal loopholes. 
When we look back on federal governments in action we note that they only act quickly on three things – terrorism, natural disasters and wars. When you look at what’s happening to Australian property you could say that today it has a bit of all three in its DNA. 
The burning question is how do you fix this to ensure that the loopholes are closed once and for all? Well that’s easy as I have always been mystified as to why federal governments are so backwards and lazy in keeping records on Australian property. 
All that needs to be done is when a property exchanges the lawyer or conveyancer immediately after exchange logs onto the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) website under Australian Property Register (password protected of course) and provides the name(s) of the purchaser, their address, who acted for them, the address of the property and wait for it – their tax file number. Then the ATO can wash this data as well as providing the information to the FIRB for review. 
If you have a divestment order and the owner phones a friend to transfer the property into their name in order to hold onto the property. Then Joe Hockey should immediately get rid of his stupid $5,000 fee on a foreign purchase and replace it with an annual Federal Property Holding Tax at 1.75% of the calculated land value. In the case of Villa del Mare that would be a $525,000 annual tax – so get the foreign buyers to assist Australia in getting its budget back to surplus faster.
But sadly it’s just not that simple given from July 1 the Abbott government is set to release its Premium Invest Visa (PIV), which is for sale at $15 million. Once an applicant has completed their PIV and handed over the required $15.000 you are rewarded with permanent residency in less than twelve months. The PIV replaces the SIV (Significant Investor Visa) which required $5.000 million investment over a four year term to then get permanent residency. You could be excused for asking oneself just who exactly does the SIV and PIV benefit? But I’m sure you already know the answer to that. 
In the meantime the House of Representatives Economics Committee has announced a “new” inquiry into home ownership. I find that simply fascinating given none of them would actually know what exactly they are looking for. The Chair of the Committee, John “Love ‘n Deuce” Alexander, said that ‘home ownership is an issue that lies at the core of the Australian dream and represents the largest investment that most taxpayers will make during their lifetime.
The importance of this issue throughout our nation makes it worthy of a detailed inquiry.’ Well isn’t that riveting? Submissions to the inquiry are requested by 26 June 2015, and the proposed reporting date is 03 December 2015. 
Oh I get it the Abbott government will release its action plan just before the next election. See I told you foreign ownership is an election issue. 
I wonder what will happen when I email them this blog titled ‘My Submission’.
MOSMAN – 2088
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 102
• Number of houses on the market last week – 57
• Number of houses on the market this week – 57
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 72
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 50
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 49
CREMORNE – 2090
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 3
• Number of houses on the market this week – 4
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 27
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 10
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 3
• Number of houses on the market this week – 3
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 48
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 31
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 27
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Feds should hang up on the ‘phone a friend’ loophole: Robert Simeon

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Queensland is a great example of how fussy investors need to be in selecting location.
The state has three of the four leading markets in regional Australia, and one of the more vibrant capital city markets, but also the greatest number of danger markets. 
You could end up with a strongly-performing growth market and a basket case, depending on how well you choose your location.
Brisbane has had a fairly busy market for 18 months or so. It hasn’t produced a big price growth number, in terms of the average across the metropolitan area, in the way Sydney has, because the uplift in activity has been quite localized. 
Some parts of the Greater Brisbane market, such as Logan City and the Moreton Bay Region, have seen elevated activity, but others have failed to deliver significant growth momentum, including Redland City and Ipswich City.
So you need to choosey about location.
South-east Queensland generally, with the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast added to Brisbane, is one of Australia’s rising markets. Both the coast markets have increasing sales activity and many suburbs are producing solid price growth. But again, you need to be careful.
The Sunshine Coast generally is buoyant but Noosa, which I have described frequently as Australian real estate’s biggest lemon, continues to struggle. And the Gold Coast may appear to be a growth market that should interest investors, but it has a poor record of growth because of bouts of oversupply – and developers are currently working hard to creating the next boom-bust scenario, which is a specialty of the Gold Coast.
Cairns joins the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast in providing three of the four biggest growth markets in regional Australia (the other biggest the City of Gosford). There are also signs that Townsville and the Fraser Coast are emerging. Toowoomba, one of the stars of regional Australia in recent years, remains solid - although the best time to buy there was two years ago.
But regional Queensland also has some of the worst places to buy. 
In the new edition of The Price Predictor Index, six of the 12 locations which make up our National Dirty Dozen (the worst markets that must be avoided) are Queensland locations which had resources-related booms, only to have their markets undermined by developers who built too many dwellings.
They failed to take into account how many resources personnel would be staying in workers camps, rather than renting in the local towns. 
In the most extreme cases, markets have been destroyed by over-building and the predominance of temporary workers camps. They include Central Queensland coal-mining towns like Moranbah and Dysart, and some of the Surat Basin towns where the coal seam gas boom produced a short boom followed by rapid decline, because 94% of resources personnel are accommodated in camps rather than rental houses.
To provide one stark example, the property market in Miles has been destroyed. There were no sales in the town in the March 2015 Quarter and only two in the December 2014 Quarter. The market no longer has sales to provide price statistics. The vacancy rate is 33%. 
Before Miles disappeared off the radar screen, its median house price had dropped 27% in 12 months and it was taking six months, and discounting around 20%, to sell a house. In the past six quarters, house sales in Miles have dropped from 25 to 20 to 13 to seven to six to two to zero.
There are similar stories across regional Queensland – providing a timely reminder to investors that they need to be very careful about where they opt to buy.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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The best and the worst found in Queensland: Terry Ryder

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<div>The ABS released its <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8755.0" target="_blank">Construction Work Done</a> figures for Q1 2015 which saw total construction work done decline by 2.4% to $48.4 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's a bit of an awkward data release with a few moving parts, but let's see if I can simplify a few of the key messages here in three short parts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Part 1 - Total construction slips</div>
<div>
 As you can see from my chart below, private sector building work is responding rather nicely to low interest rates.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately, on the other hand, spend in the public sector is contributing very little to the cause. Quarterly public sector expenditure fell to below $2.2 billion, which is far below the more stimulatory levels seen through the financial crisis which peaked at more than $5 billion. The economy could evidently use some infrastructure investment, though I'm not at all sure we'll get it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile engineering construction, largely comprised of resources capital expenditure, continues to capitulate, now more than 20% lower over the past year to $24.8 billion in Q1, from a peak of $33.2 billion in 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/05/28/wargent1.jpg" alt=""></div>
 
<div>The net result is that total construction work done declined further in the first quarter by 2.4% to $48.4 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is still a very high level of activity in historical terms, but now some 8.8% lower than one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<img src="/images/2015/05/28/wargent2.jpg" alt=""> 
<div>The one shining light for construction - which you will have seen with your own eyes if you live in one of the major capital cities - is residential construction, which continues to pulse along.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>House building work done is picking up sharply, while the value of building work done relating to units and apartments (denoted by the red line below) continues to surge to new record highs through this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Higher density developments - which tend to be located in cities and come with associated expensive land remediation costs - are contributing a surprisingly high proportion of residential building work done in chain volume measures terms.</div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/05/28/wargent3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Major renovations work, denoted by the green line, continues to flatline, and is basically on life support outside Sydney.</div>
Part 2 - State versus state building
The value of building work done is being driven by activity in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, in that order, which should continue to support construction employment in those cities, combined with the associated multiplier effect.
<div>The building boom is largely bypassing the southern states, and this has been reflected in benign (Hobart) or negative (Adelaide) employment growth in the respective capitals of these states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/05/28/wargent4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Looking at the major component parts, Melbourne continues to be the undisputed king of house building, while Queensland and Western Australia saw a decent lift in activity in the first quarter of this year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/05/28/wargeent5.jpg" alt=""></div>
 But the real fun and games are taking place in the apartment construction sector.
Sydney and Brisbane may be approaching full capacity in this industry, which a dearth of bricklayers and project managers on the eastern seaboard being reported by the Reserve Bank's liaison, despite the legions of construction workers becoming available for transfer as they are released from resources contracts (more on this below).  
<div>Activity in New South Wales pulled back a little in Q1, but Melbourne apartment construction continues to rip to record high levels, with nearly $6.5 billion of work done over the past year in Victoria, and $1.8 billion in the first quarter of 2015 alone. Heady times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/05/28/wargent6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Clearly this is the macro level data only, but the figures clearly imply a looming oversupply of units and apartments in some locations. Prospective investors clearly need to understand the property markets at a suburb and micro level in this respect. Part 3 - The mining cliff
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you were hoping for good news for resources regions from this release, I'm afraid that there is none to report.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Engineering construction work done held up reasonably well in Victoria, but everywhere else of note saw sharp declines, and particularly so the main mining states.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The one exception in recent quarters had been the Northern Territory, with heavy spend related to the $34 billion Ichthys project pushing up engineering construction work done to record highs for the Top End over the preceding two quarters.</div>
<div>
 However, even the Northern Territory saw engineering construction work done decline from $2.1 billion to $1.7 billion in the first quarter, with some delays to the planned 2017 start-up date having been reported related to Inpex.</div>
<div class="separator">  
</div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/05/28/wargent7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart above tells its own story, and there is little else but woe ahead for a number of mining town economies. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ongoing capitulation of house prices in the Pilbara and Moranbah have been well enough documented, but there are many more echo-corrections in the post across regions which have been propped up through the once-in-a-century mining construction boom. </div>
<div>
 My chart packs have shown here previously that the pipeline for mining capital expenditure is desperately weak, and there will be further data to report on expected capital expenditure declines later this morning. Capex related to Ichthys still has a way to run, granted, while Adani is hoping to proceed with its $10 billion thermal coal project (despite the minor inconvenience issue that at today's prices the project can barely be viable). But these monster projects aside, weakening commodity prices will ensure that mining investment is heading all the way back down where whence it came, which is why we call it a commodity cycle.</div>
The wrap
<div>This negative result will breathe very life into the GDP result for the first quarter, while a further decline in Australia's terms of trade will also act as a drag.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Economic growth may not be stone dead flat in Q1, but it seems unlikely to be a great deal better than that, which could drag the annual result down to well below 2% over the first half of this calendar year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With inflation forecasts having been revised down and further macro-prudential tools now being deployed by lenders, futures markets see every chance that the next move in interest rates will be down again to below 2%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps the twist in the tail here is that macro-prudential tools on lending to property investors mean lower interest rates for longer?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Major renovations work continues to flatline: Pete Wargent

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There were 2,727 homes taken to auction this week, up from 2,599 over the previous week. The preliminary clearance rate was recorded at 78.9%, down slightly from 79.1% last week, making it the tenth week in a row where the combined capital city clearance rate has been above the 77% mark. Although auction volumes were higher at the same time last year (3,072), the auction clearance rate was lower, at 66.4%.
<img src="/images/2015/06/01/shana1.jpg" alt="" width="905" height="687">
 
In Melbourne, Australia’s largest auction market, there were 1,221 auctions held across the city. Of the 1,053 results reported so far, the preliminary clearance rate is 78.3%. In comparison, last week, Melbourne recorded a final clearance rate of 82.1% across 1,162 auctions. One year ago, Melbourne’s clearance rate was recorded at 65.4% across 1,356 auctions. Across Melbourne’s sub-regions, the Inner region had the highest number of auctions this week (296), with a preliminary clearance rate of 73.8%, while the Outer East region of Melbourne had the strongest result, with 88.8% of reported auctions selling.
 
<img src="/images/2015/06/01/shana2.jpg" alt="" width="842" height="573">
 
Across Sydney, 1,120 homes were taken to auction this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 86.5% across 882 reported results. Last week, 1,018 Sydney properties were taken to auction with a clearance rate of 86.2%. At the same time last year, Sydney’s auction clearance rate was 73.0% across 1,316 auctions. This week, across Sydney’s individual sub-regions, Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury (94.7%), City and Inner South (92.5%), Inner West (92.3%) and Sutherland (91.2%) regions all recorded strong preliminary clearance rates.
 
<img src="/images/2015/06/01/20150531-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="863" height="582">
 
This week, Brisbane’s preliminary clearance rate was recorded at 52.1%, up from 46.2% last week and 42.5% at the same time last year. There were 209 Brisbane auctions this week, compared to 159 last week and 219 last year. The GoldCoast’s preliminary clearance rate was 40.3% across 62 results this week.
 
<img src="/images/2015/06/01/20150531-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="869" height="585">
 
 SHANA MILLER is a research analyst at <a href="https://www.myrp.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">RP Data</a>.
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smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Combined capital clearance rate above 77%: Shana Miller

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Tony Abbott is absolutely right. There’s something I never imagined I would ever say, but the Prime Minister is spot on with his comments this week about house prices. He said on Monday he thought rising house prices were a good thing.
He sought to make his comments as a home-owner at Forestville in the northern beaches area of Sydney, as well as the nation’s Prime Minister.
The Federal Government has got a lot wrong on real estate, with its pointless inquiries and its equally pointless targeting of foreign investors in a sabre-rattling attempt to be seen to be taking strong action.
But Abbott was right on the mark about house prices. It’s long overdue for someone in authority to make the point that for people who own homes, which means the vast majority of Australian households, rising property values are a good thing. 
They’re also a good thing for the nation.
For way too long, mainstream media has characterised any rise in house prices as a national crisis. It’s been the dominant tone in newspapers since the start of the century, which began with a genuine national property boom from 2001 to 2003, and it’s reached the point of absurdity more recently with coverage of the Claytons boom centred on Sydney.
Media has also lost all sense of balance with its treatment of the affordability issue. They’ve turned first-home buyers into a kind of protected species, to be fussed over to the exclusion of everyone else, including the seven out of 10 households who own their homes and want their values to rise.
Here’s what the Prime Minister said on Monday: “This government is trying to make housing more available, we’ve tried to make housing more affordable, and the best way to make housing more affordable is to keep interest rates low and stable and that’s exactly what’s happening and trying to make sure the economy is strong.
“As someone who, along with a bank, owns a house in Sydney I do hope that our housing prices are increasing. I do want housing to be affordable, but nevertheless I also want house prices to be modestly increasing."
That’s probably the only time in his reign that Abbott has spoken on behalf of most Australians.
Notwithstanding the misinformation that often describes our housing as the most expensive in the world - and the fuzzy logic that has turned the current up-cycle in Sydney into a national bubble - Australia continues to have one of the world’s highest home ownership rates. Most home-owners with mortgages are ahead on their repayments, while mortgage delinquencies are at record lows. These facts suggest a market that’s healthy and sustainable. 
Most of us want property values to rise – and so does the nation. We’re all tasked with the challenge of providing for our retirement years amid a rapidly ageing population and a fragile Budget. 
That demands that we invest and grow our assets. For many, the cornerstone of the process is the family home and its value.
So the Prime Minister leads the nation in wanting prices to rise across Australia. The problem is, they’re not.
The latest research figures suggest house values are going backwards in Darwin and Hobart, stagnating in Perth and rising only marginally in Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide. Sydney, up 16%, has the only boom housing market.
Apartments markets are falling in Perth, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin, and there’s no meaningful growth in Brisbane or Adelaide. Melbourne is up only 3%. Even Sydney’s rise of 8.8% is quite moderate.
There’s nothing in those figures to support the notion of a bubble, nor the bleating of those who claim an affordability crisis, in contradiction of the situation described by the affordability indexes.
It says something about the state of journalism in Australia when the Prime Minister can generate a media storm by commenting that rising property values are a good thing.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
Terry is presenting a free webinar with Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor on Tuesday June 16 at 12.30pm titled on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. Sign up here.
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Tony Abbott is absolutely right on house prices: Terry Ryder

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Over the years I've refined the fittings and fixtures that we include in our villas. When we first started off many years ago, we'd just run with the basic builder's range.
When I look back on the fittings in the basic builder's range I'm horrified. You see, the basic range is usually selected by the builder. The builder is very good at building homes but may not have a very strong sense of style. Large building companies will usually employ interior designers to make selections but if you are using a smaller building company, double check their fittings and fixtures.
I remember on one build, after the timber mould out stage, (when the skirting boards, architraves and internal doors are hung) I arrived on site for my inspection. Walking into the villas I saw something bright and shiny in the corner of my eye. I turned to see gold hinges on the door. We'd chosen matt chrome door handles and I asked the builder about these brass hinges. His reply was "they are the best quality hinges you can get, Jo".  It didn't cross his mind that they didn't match in with the door handles. 
Some small changes to items like tapware can make a massive difference and not even cost any more. It's all in the style of tap. A builder's range tap may be functional but not necessary pretty. If you ask your builder who his plumbing supplier is, a quick visit to their showroom and I'm sure you'd find a nicer looking tap for the same price or a higher end range that may be on sale.
The vanity is the focal point of a bathroom so look at what is available in the builder's range. Often you can add a coloured or timber look base to the vanity for no extra cost and tie in the colour with your tile scheme. A wall of feature tiles can really add impact, but make sure it's not overkill if it's a small bathroom.
Lighting is another area that adds to the style of a room.  We try to avoid boring oyster lights. It's amazing how far the humble oyster light has come. Ask the electrician where he gets his lights and again take a look at what's available. Energy saving downlights give good light and are not that expensive and if you add two pendant lights over the kitchen then you will immediately give the kitchen a higher end feel. Add bulkheads above the overhead cupboards for a clean look. 
Ceiling fan with lights to the bedrooms are usually well received by tenants and buyers and not that much more.
Don't forget the front door lighting, by adding a couple of stylish lights you're creating a good first impression.
Look at a slight upgrade to the kitchen rangehood as this adds more dimension to your kitchen.
I like to use a gloss floor tile in the living areas as it reflects light around the room and has a more luxurious feel.
Finally, give the front façade something that will increase its appeal. Aluminium timber look garage doors are only slightly more than standard colours. Upgrade the front door handle to an oversized handle and combine it with a nice metal plate with the street number  to give a glamorous entrance.
Jo Chivers is Chief Executive Officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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