<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Joel Robinson

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Breaking into the Sydney property market has long felt out of reach for many first home buyers, particularly as median house prices sit above $1.6 million and unit prices push beyond $900,000.</p>

<p>But entry points still exist in pockets of Greater Western Sydney, where pricing, government incentives, and product mix are aligning to make ownership more attainable.</p>

<p>Understanding where those opportunities sit, and how the numbers actually stack up, is becoming increasingly important for buyers weighing up their next move.</p>

<h2>Work out what you can actually afford</h2>

<p>Sydney is expensive, but it isn’t uniformly expensive. The Greater Parramatta region continues to offer comparatively accessible entry points, particularly for buyers open to alternative configurations like studios.</p>

<p>There's an assumption that a first home needs to be a certain size, that anything smaller than a one-bedder is a concession rather than a choice. That assumption doesn't hold up against what well-designed studios in the right location actually offer: immediate liveability, strong urban amenity, and a price point that makes the deposit target realistic rather than theoretical.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/mason-main-merrylands-249-259-merrylands-road-merrylands-nsw-2160">Mason &amp; Main</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/coronation-property">Coronation Property</a>'s multi-award winning precinct in Merrylands, studio apartments are unlike the typical studio configuration.</p>

<p>Starting from $498,000, the bedroom is fully enclosed, separated from the living area by a cavity sliding door, creating a genuinely private sleeping space that functions more like a one-bedroom apartment than a traditional open-plan studio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359814]</p>

<p>At 42 sqm internally, with an open-plan kitchen, built-in robes, modern bathroom, and separate laundry, the apartments are designed for everyday liveability rather than short-term use.</p>

<p>With a five per cent deposit under the Federal Government's First Home Guarantee, that equates to a deposit of around $24,200, achievable for many first home buyers without the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance.</p>

<h2>Understand the real cost of renting versus buying</h2>

<p>For buyers weighing up the shift from renting to owning, the numbers are closer than many expect.</p>

<p>Here’s how the numbers stack up for a studio at Mason &amp; Main (based on a $498,000 purchase):</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $498,000</li>
	<li><strong>Five per cent deposit (First Home Guarantee):</strong> ~$24,900</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount:</strong> ~$473,100</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment (6.29% variable, 30-year term):</strong> ~$675–$695/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $590–$620/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong> 6.16% - 6.47%</li>
</ul>

<p>At this level, the gap between renting and owning is relatively narrow, particularly when factoring in long-term equity, with rental returns also making the apartments a viable option for investors.</p>

<p>The rental range reflects current asking rents for remaining studio stock in the development and, based on prevailing asking prices, equates to an indicative gross rental yield of up to 6.47 per cent.</p>

<p>For buyers seeking more internal space, Mason &amp; Main also offers a range of one-bedroom apartments from $629,000, alongside larger one-bedroom plus multipurpose room configurations priced from $680,000 - all priced under $800,000 and eligible for first home buyer incentives.</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $629,000</li>
	<li><strong>20 per cent deposit:</strong> ~$125,800 (5% deposit on exchange: $31,450)</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount 80%:</strong> ~$503,200</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment:</strong> ~$720–$740/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $650–$680/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong>&nbsp;5.37% - 5.62%</li>
</ul>

<p>One-bedroom apartments continue to present a balanced option for both owner-occupiers and investors, supported by steady rental demand across Western Sydney.<span style="font-size:small"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial">&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359812]</p>

<h2>Make sure you're across the government incentives</h2>

<p>Government incentives continue to play a key role in reducing the upfront cost barrier.</p>

<p>At Mason &amp; Main, studio, one, and two-bedroom apartments are priced under $800,000, allowing eligible buyers to access a full stamp duty exemption under the NSW First Home Buyers Assistance Scheme.</p>

<p>On a $498,000 purchase, that represents a saving of roughly $17,900 that would otherwise need to be paid at settlement.</p>

<p>Combined with the First Home Guarantee, which enables purchases with as little as a five per cent deposit, the total capital required to secure a home is significantly reduced compared to traditional lending pathways.</p>

<h2>No waiting, no uncertainty</h2>

<p>For first home buyers who want to move sooner rather than later, Mason &amp; Main removes one of the more common pain points from the purchase process entirely. The development is already complete and move-in ready, meaning buyers can walk through the apartments, inspect the finishes, and have full certainty about what they're purchasing before signing anything.</p>

<p>Coronation brought in renowned architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> to design the development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The project's design drew inspiration from the area's rich heritage, in particular the nearby brickworks and aqueduct, infusing a contemporary perspective to seamlessly integrate historical influences into the design," Woods Bagot Principal Dom Alvaro says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=736]</p>

<h2>Factor in location and lifestyle</h2>

<p>Beyond the apartment itself, the surrounding infrastructure matters, particularly for a first purchase. Merrylands Station sits 350 metres from the development, putting the Parramatta CBD a five-minute drive away and the Sydney CBD roughly 25 minutes via the Western Line. Directly across the road is Stockland <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/merrylands-nsw-2160">Merrylands</a>, one of Greater Western Sydney's major retail centres.</p>

<p>At street level, Mason &amp; Main's own retail and dining precinct has more than 30 tenants trading, including Iftar, Macelleria, Hayat, San Churro, Yuzu, and Fat Jaks. Residents also have access to a resort-style pool, a Technogym-equipped gym, private dining rooms, and a rooftop terrace with panoramic views across Parramatta, the Sydney CBD, and the Blue Mountains, all exclusive to the building.</p>

<p>Due to the mix of configurations, including studios which are rarely offered in today's new apartment market, first home buyers and investors have driven Mason &amp; Main to over 90 per cent sold.</p>

<p>Coronation Property Managing Director Joe Nahas says the development is driving a revitalisation of Merrylands, setting a high standard for future developments in the area.</p>

<p>Mason &amp; Main is move-in ready and is the latest in a series of award-winning mixed-use developments by Coronation Property.</p>

<p><em>Disclaimer: Mortgage repayment figures are estimates only, based on a 6.29 per cent variable rate over a 30-year term (Canstar, April 2026). Pricing and rental estimates are indicative and based on current listings and project information. Gross yield figures are indicative and derived from asking prices and estimated rental ranges. Stamp duty savings are indicative only. Buyers should seek independent financial and legal advice before proceeding.</em></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=31751]</p>


How first home buyers can enter the Sydney property market for under $500k

<p data-end="390" data-start="110">Australia’s housing debate has rarely been more urgent. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council forecasts the country could fall around 262,000 homes short of housing needs by 2029, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing planners, governments and developers.</p>

<p data-end="514" data-start="392">In response, much of the conversation has centred on high-density towers around transport corridors and strategic centres.</p>

<p data-end="676" data-start="516">Diversified developer Coronation Property, while also focused on well-located, strategic sites, is incorporating an arguably underutilised typology, the terrace.</p>

<p data-end="983" data-start="678">Difficult to integrate into true high-rise developments, terraces have become a defining feature of Coronation’s lower-rise portfolio, including projects in Ashbury and Erskineville. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/ashbury-terraces-165-171-milton-street-ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury Terraces</a> places a stronger emphasis on this housing type, forming part of a broader community mix.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">At its Erskineville development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, terraces are more limited, with just a handful&nbsp;included within the wider, predominantly apartment-led precinct, one of the first developments to launch in Erskineville in several years.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368392]</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Terrace residents at Lillian benefit from many of the same advantages as apartment owners, the lock-up-and-leave lifestyle and access to shared amenities like the rooftop wellness space, but with significantly more space.</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Spanning multiple levels, the terraces also feature front and rear courtyards, providing direct access to the central landscaped gardens within the precinct.</p>

<h3 data-end="212" data-section-id="1n97jye" data-start="191">The terrace model</h3>

<p data-end="464" data-start="214">Terrace housing has long been part of Australia’s urban fabric. From Paddington and Surry Hills to Glebe and Annandale, rows of terrace homes have shaped neighbourhood streets, offering a housing form that sits between detached houses and apartments.</p>

<p data-end="631" data-start="466">The contemporary terrace, however, addresses many of the limitations of older designs, where narrow staircases and constrained layouts often compromised liveability.</p>

<p data-end="703" data-start="633">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368157]</p>

<p data-end="834" data-start="705">“Terraces represent one of the city’s most intelligent housing models,” says Joe Nahas, Managing Director of Coronation Property.</p>

<p data-end="1085" data-start="836">“They deliver density without losing the human scale that makes neighbourhoods liveable. In many ways, they provide a bridge between the Sydney we know and the Sydney we need to build. If Sydney is going to grow well, it can’t rely on towers alone.”</p>

<hr data-end="1090" data-start="1087" />
<h3 data-end="1124" data-section-id="1a7l0gw" data-start="1092">The evolution of the terrace</h3>

<p data-end="1262" data-start="1126">That thinking has shaped Coronation’s approach at Ashbury Terraces, where the terrace typology has been reinterpreted for modern living.</p>

<p data-end="1459" data-start="1264">Designed by SJB, the project recently received recognition at the 2026 Better Future World Design Awards, acknowledging its architectural clarity and response to the surrounding suburban context.</p>

<p data-end="1564" data-start="1461">SJB Director Adam Haddow says the intent was to evolve a familiar housing form rather than reinvent it.</p>

<p data-end="1723" data-start="1566">“The terrace is one of Sydney’s most familiar housing forms, so our approach at Ashbury was to reinterpret that typology in a contemporary way,” Haddow says.</p>

<p data-end="1888" data-start="1725">“The homes are designed to sit comfortably within the existing neighbourhood while introducing more light, landscape and shared spaces that support modern living.”</p>

<p data-end="2082" data-start="1890">Ashbury Terraces combines terraces, apartments and penthouses across a series of low-rise buildings, integrating contemporary architecture with landscaped communal spaces and resident amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2264" data-start="2084">That same typology is now being carried into Coronation’s Lillian development in Erskineville, where a smaller number of terraces sit within a predominantly apartment-led precinct.</p>

<hr data-end="2269" data-start="2266" />
<h3 data-end="2289" data-section-id="cazuws" data-start="2271">Buyer response</h3>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2291">Coronation’s decision to include terraces at Lillian was informed by strong buyer feedback from Ashbury Terraces, where purchasers were drawn to the flexibility and scale the housing type offers.</p>

<p data-end="2588" data-start="2488">One resident, Sweta Pursem, purchased a terrace as a single buyer, citing its long-term versatility.</p>

<p data-end="2720" data-start="2590">“As a single buyer, it might seem surprising that I chose a terrace over an apartment, but I was thinking long term,” Pursem says.</p>

<p data-end="2851" data-start="2722">“The terraces are incredibly versatile, catering to a range of lifestyles while still offering the space and privacy of a house.”</p>

<p data-end="2962" data-start="2853">For Pursem, the multi-level layout provides a level of functionality not typically found in apartment living.</p>

<p data-end="3202" data-start="2964">“Having a separate living area from the bedroom and home office makes everyday living feel both functional and comfortable. When friends and family come to visit, the layout gives a sense of privacy while still feeling open and spacious.”</p>

<p data-end="3279" data-start="3204">Her terrace also supports a more connected, lifestyle-driven way of living.</p>

<p data-end="3537" data-start="3281">“I love entertaining, and the courtyard is ideal for relaxed weekend drinks with friends. I tend to use each level differently throughout the day, it creates a natural rhythm between work, downtime and entertaining, which I didn’t have in apartment living.”</p>

<p data-end="3692" data-start="3539">Ashbury Terraces is now complete and ready to move in, while Lillian in Erskineville is under construction and expected to welcome residents in mid-2027.</p>


Coronation champions terraces as a key piece of Sydney’s housing mix

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<div>Lend Lease actually reported its FY2017 results, which confirmed a solid+9 percent lift in post-tax profit to $758.6 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The market wasn't greatly moved, of course, since the group inadvertently dumped a stack of market sensitive information out to to the public at the beginning of the month, including the unaudited EBITDA (oops).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As accounting stuff-ups go, it was a rather impressive one (disclosure: I made similar goofs in my listed company career) though in the end relatively little harm was done, save a little embarrassment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Defaults under 1pc</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Reading through the investor presentation it was interesting to note a +20 per cent uplift in residential unit completions in the 2017 financial year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Approximately 90 per cent of apartment completions have already settled, with a default rate of under 1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This follows on from similarly low default rates reported by other developers during earnings season.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is very important, for there had been fears of a wave of Chinese investor defaults following on from local lenders pulling up the ladder.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date, this does not appear to have transpired.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news, S&amp;P reported a drop in loan delinquencies from 1.21 per cent in May to just 1.15 per cent in June. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Declines were recorded "across the board" for 30,60 and 90 day mortgage arrears, with a corresponding fall in outstanding loan balances, with Queensland showing the biggest drop in arrears. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This broadly mirrors what you'd expect to see given extremely low mortgage rates for homeowners, and a national unemployment rate that has been trending down for several years now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">No stress?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Countless media articles have claimed that mortgage stress is rising - often referred to as a "perfect storm" no less! - perhaps based upon household cash flow surveys.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But in reality so many households have been repaying ahead of schedule into offset accounts that it wouldn't be a surprise if some net monthly cashflows showed an outflow. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the aggregate value of the housing stock exploding to $7.1 trillion against mortgage debt of around $1.6 trillion, it also wouldn't be a surprise to me if some of the benefiting households have taken a breather on their earnings either. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event, with the possible exception of Western Australia mortgage arrears remain low to date, which is about the only indicator that matters, when all's said and done. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Lend Lease report low apartment default rate

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<div>The share of interest-only loans fell sharply towards the 30 per cent proposed regulatory cap in the June 2017 quarter, as bank incentives to switch towards principal and interest products had the desired impact. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasurer Scott Morrison will argue that the "scalpel" approach to cooling this sector of the market has been successful, forcing Aussies to begin paying back their mortgages sooner. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For ADIs with greater than $1 billion in residential term loans, new loans to investors also dropped back to a 34.5 per cent share of the new lending market, now well down from 42.5 per cent in the June 2015 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The share of high loan to value ratio (LVR) loans has also diminished considerably over the past 10 quarters, which makes life tough for first homebuyers, but arguably reduces mortgage exposure risk in aggregate.  </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Despite these changes in the composition of exposures, lending growth remains strong, with total ADI exposures rising by +7.3 per cent over the financial year to $1.54 trillion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's an increase of +$105 billion over the 2017 financial year, ever-so-slightly less than the +$107 billion increase seen in FY2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in ADI exposures to owner-occupiers was particularly strong, rising by +8.1 per cent to beyond $1 trillion for the first time. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Activity in new low-doc loans and other non-standard loans continued to decline, as has consistently been the case now since 2009. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, there was not much of a slowdown in evidence here, even if the composition of lending has shifted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, non-banks have been growing their mortgage books apace - the dollar value of Pepper's residential loan originations soared by +17 per cent in H1 2017, for example. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for these changes it's questionable that there has been any meaningful slowdown at all in the pace of mortgage lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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ADI home loan exposure pass $1 trillion: Pete Wargent

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.3 per cent over the year to July 2017, a fair bit slower than the +6.6 per cent seen a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The slowdown has partly been a reflection of business credit growth ambling along at an annual rate of +4.2 per cent, although surveys suggest that business investment is set to gather a bit of momentum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Growth in credit relating to housing market investors has slowed a touch to +7.4 per cent, now well under the 10 per cent cap, with more slowing to come based on recent monthly figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner-occupier credit growth is still powering along, though, and total housing credit growth is still a sprightly +6.6 per cent, unchanged from a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Personal credit growth remains negative, as consumers tend towards mortgage buffers and offset accounts instead of of credit cards and personal loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Shifts at the margin</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's no doubt that it's become more difficult at the margin to gain access to housing credit, particularly for investor loans, and most especially for interest-only mortgages. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in investor loans is now well below the regulatory 10 per cent cap for each of the major banks, which between them account for most of the mortgage market.<br><br>A couple of minnow lenders have been pinged with a speeding ticket, including the tiny Heritage Bank, so they'll be putting investor loans in the sin bin, perhaps for a month or two. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But on the flip side, there's plenty of potential for most of the main lenders to loosen standards again for investment loans as we head into spring and beyond. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, while APRA's latest ADI monthly statistics hinted at a marginal slowdown, the reality is that non-standard loans have to some extent been picked up by alternative lenders such as Pepper and their ilk. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The RBA's figures show that over the year to July 2017 the total stock of outstanding housing credit increased by $113 billion to $1.69 trillion.<br><br>In dollar value terms, this is the biggest annual increase ever recorded.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>So, there may be a 'slowdown' of sorts underway, if you will, but as the above chart shows it looks like a shift in composition too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, every single one of the main lenders continues to increase its stock of mortgages outstanding, even if there has been a move towards home loans and away from investor loans. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/04/APRA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/04/APRA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Some one-track observers have noted that out of cycle rate hikes has crashed or destroyed demand for mortgage debt.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not sure what data source they're using to draw that conclusion - none, most likely - but the official RBA figures shows a record annual increase in housing credit, with a slowing in investor credit just beginning to flow through to the annual data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Experiences elsewhere in the world have shown that macroprudential measures tend to be effective for a while before borrowers and lenders find ways to get transactions happening again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reality is that, in aggregate, interest rate differentials have only slowed lending slightly at the margin to date, while simultaneously boosting the bottom line and equity of gleeful banks.<br><br>Out of cycle rate hikes were certainly never about funding costs, with the cost of wholesale debt barely having broken a decade-long downtrend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What would genuinely change the landscape would be a statement of intent from the RBA in the form of a hike in the cash rate, but in all likelihood that remains far away.<br><br>
</div>
<div>In the event a couple of dozen lenders have already cut their mortgage rates since the beginning of July, most notably Westpac, in anticipation of the spring selling season.<br><br>With the trend unemployment rate declining to its lowest level in more than four years and further improvements expected over the next few ahead by the RBA, it will be intriguing to see how claims of a 'perfect storm' and 'record mortgage stress' are reconciled with what's actually happening on the ground.<br><br>I say that because it looks suspiciously as though mortgage default rates are refusing to rise from benign levels outside Western Australia.<br><br>Naturally, household cash flows may appear weaker if accelerated mortgage repayments have become the norm.<br><br>But the statistics show that although wages growth has been weak, the unemployment rate has been falling, and underutilisation is declining in volume terms.<br><br>Genuinely, I'm intrigued to watch what the media will report having run so hard with the unprecedented mortgage stress meme.<br><br>Not everyone agrees with the improving economy thesis, mind.<br><br>Westpac sees the pullback of Chinese apartment investors leading to a sharp slowdown in residential construction and unemployment heading back towards 6 per cent next year.<br><br>Watch, this, space!!!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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The record year for house lending: Pete Wargent 

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<p>There was another upbeat result for building approvals in the month of July 2017, with a shade under 18,300 dwellings approved in the private sector.</p>
<p>From a year ago private sector attached dwelling approvals are some 30 per cent lower, leading total approvals to be off by 14 per cent year-on-year.</p>
<p>Approvals are evidently well down from the peak, especially for high-rise apartments as we shall see. </p>
<p>However, detached house approvals have been steadily trending higher over the past five months, and demand for new homes has picked up the pace too. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/B3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/B3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Although attached dwelling approvals remained at relatively strong levels in the most populous capital cities in July, the entrenched downtrend is abundantly clear. </p>
<p>In Brisbane, annual approvals continue to drop precipitously as that market grapples with high-rise overbuilding, especially in the inner city.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/B1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Interestingly much of the recent strength in detached house approvals has been accounted for by the regional centres, as house price growth ripples outwards.</p>
<p>At the capital city level detached housing in Brisbane looks robust, but annual house approvals in fundamentally oversupplied Perth are down by 41 per cent from the cyclical peak of December 2014.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/B2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/B2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>High-rise boom &amp; bust</p>
<p>Looking at the composition of dwellings approved shows that in annualised terms high-rise apartments have dropped by a quarter since the heady peak of October 2015. </p>
<p>Indeed, the great bulk of the volatility through this cycle has been driven by the heady combination of low interest rates and a surge of Chinese investor demand for high-rise apartments (which has now gone into reverse gear with local financiers having pulled up stumps).</p>
<p>Lately there has been a shift back towards approvals for more boutique apartment blocks, and especially townhouses. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/B4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The boom and subsequent bust in high-rise approvals has followed a markedly similar pattern across each of the three most populous states, thus underscoring the point, although demand in Sydney and Melbourne has held stronger for longer.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/B5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/B5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Non-residential steps up</p>
<p>While there have been fears of a disorderly slowdown in construction, the total value of building approvals surged in the month July and has been trending solidly higher for six months, helped along by strengthening performance in the non-residential sector.</p>
<p>In fact, the trend in non-residential approvals smoked a record high in July 2017 - in dollar value terms, if not as a share of GDP - driven by office and education buildings in New South Wales and Victoria.</p>
<p>With public works, infrastructure spend, and engineering construction rising, overall the sector remains in considerably better nick than seemed likely at the back end of last year. </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Rebalancing away from the high-rise construction effect: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Interest rate cuts and the return of lending to investors over the past year have seen a re-emergence of investors as a dominant force in the national housing market.</p>
<p>At the end of last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published housing finance data for January 2017 and it showed that at that time, demand from the investment segment of the market was continuing to surge.  Pairing the housing finance data with the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) lending aggregate data provides deeper insight into housing investor behaviour. </p>
<p>The January 2017 housing finance data showed that over the month, investors committed to a total of $13.8 billion in finance for investment properties.  The figure represented a 4.2 percent rise over the month and a 27.5 percent increase year-on-year (the largest annual increase since August 2014). </p>
<p>The first chart shows that the value of investor housing finance commitments remains below its previous peak but has ramped-up significantly over the past 12 months.  In fact, the value of investor housing finance commitments in January 2017 was just -5.3 percent lower than its historic peak in April 2015. </p>
<h3>Monthly value of investor housing finance commitments</h3>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20-image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div>
<h3><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20-image1.png" alt=""></h3>
<p> </p>
<p>The second chart highlights how most of the investor housing finance commitments are flowing to established homes rather than new homes.  This isn’t really a surprise when you consider that the amount of established housing stock is substantially greater than new stock and new housing typically has a price premium over existing stock.  Over the month, $1.2 billion in commitments were for new construction compared to $12.6 billion for established housing stock.</p>
<h3>Monthly value of investor housing finance commitments by property type</h3>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20--image2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The third chart comes from data published by the RBA on investor housing credit which represents the total amount outstanding to mortgage lenders for the purposes of investor housing.  In January 2017, investor credit expanded by 0.6 percent to be 6.6 percent higher over the year. The monthly change was actually the lowest it has been in four months while the annual change was the highest it has been in 10 months. </p>
<p>Much like the housing finance data, the credit data shows the impact of APRAs recent curbs to investor credit growth which have slowed growth however, more recently credit has once again started to expand. </p>
<h3>Monthly and annual change in investor housing credit to Australian lenders</h3>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20--image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20--image3.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The final chart shows the monthly value of investor credit outstanding to Australian lenders.  At the end of January 2017, the RBA reports that there was $572.2 billion in investor credit outstanding to Australian lenders.  This figure accounted for 34.9% of all housing credit outstanding ($1.637 trillion) and 21.5 percent of total outstanding credit.  The chart shows a significant rise in investor housing credit, in fact, two decades ago investor credit represented 21.8% of total housing credit and 8.7 percent of all credit.</p>
<h3>Monthly value of investor housing credit to Australian lenders</h3>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/22/2017-03-20--image4.png" alt=""></p>
<p>All of the data presented highlights that the latest data we have shows demand from the investor segment in the housing market continues to surge.  With the substantial increase in dwelling values in Sydney and Melbourne over recent years, home owners are able to utilise the equity in their principal place of residence to purchase investment properties.  It is clear from the data that many are doing so. </p>
<p>While investor activity is rampant, the proportion of total housing finance commitments to owner occupier first home buyers is at an historic low.  On one hand it is positive that home owners are investing on the other hand they can continue to outbid those people that don’t already own homes further locking many potential buyers out of the housing market.</p>
<p>It is anticipated that over the coming months we will see further tightening of lending policies to investors with some lenders approaching APRAs 10 percnet speed limit.  Should this occur it is likely to result in a moderate slowing of demand from the investment segment, at least temporarily like we saw in mid-2015 and early 2016.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <span class="s2"><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor lending gathers pace as dwelling values surge higher: Cameron Kusher

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<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>As someone allegedly knows something about property, I have to confess I didn't participate in Melbourne's property market through its recent stellar run, having been focused on Sydney, and more lately Brisbane. </p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>At least I won't miss out on Geelong, though.</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>Geelong had always looked to be a likely contender for the ripple effect from Melbourne, being located less than 50 miles from the capital, and being a generally good city in its own right.</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>And then the Labor government more or less nailed it on by announcing a series of measures to stimulate the market.</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>I broke a golden rule of thumb when discussing possible price impacts here when I estimated that median house prices in the city could feasibly rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2020 (never use numbers; they always go for the numbers...).</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>Somehow, that became a median price of $600,000 ("it's not hard to envision prices in Geelong moving 20 to 30 percent higher by June 2020, particularly in the sub-$600,000 bracket").</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>Anyhoo, the point was that prices could rise as a result of the stimulatory measures, not least because the new legislation doesn't take full effect for months, affording opportunists a free kick at buying before 1 July. </p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>And it looks like prices are teeing off already.</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>Last weekend the auction clearance rate in Geelong moved above 90 percent, the highest regional or non-capital city clearance rate in the country.</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>And there are now regular stories of street records being smoked.</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>This weekend a house that last sold for $310,000 in 2009 sold for an astonishing $836,000 at auction. </p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>It looks like a rocket has been put under house prices in Geelong West.   </p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p6"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/23/A1.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p class="p7"><span class="s1">All the hallmarks of a nascent boom.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<p class="p7"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
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Geelong prices teeing off early

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-91815638045542133" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Won't spend too much time on this, as the Financial Aggregates figures relate to before APRA's latest round of changes and therefore the landscape has once again shifted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's latest figures showed credit growth of 0.3 percent in February, following on from a result of just 0.2 percent in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing credit increased by 0.6 percent in the month, but both business and personal credit growth were negative.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to February housing credit increased by 6.4 percent down from 7.3 percent a year ago, with investor credit rising a notch further to 6.7 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual credit growth slowed to 5 percent from 6.6 percent a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business credit growth in particular has slowed from 6.5 percent a year ago to just 3.7 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are many ways to fund business expansion,of course, but this doesn't necessarily bode well for the business investment outlook. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>As a result, housing now accounts for a record 61.7 percent of outstanding credit.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>There was a further $1 billion of housing loan purpose switching taking the total switched to owner-occupier from investor loans since July 2015 to $50 billion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>And housing credit outstanding increased to $1.65 trillion by February 2017.<br><br>More measures have since been taken to slow the creation of new interest-only loans.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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Housing credit growth slows

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<div>I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 percent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A valid question is: why?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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Employees flocking to eastern capitals: Pete Wargent

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<div>I went to Surfers Paradise on Friday on the Gold Coast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Being a holiday destination, it's one of Australia's most volatile and cyclical housing markets.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not too hard to see why, with few height restrictions on building and apartment towers stretching almost as far as the eye can see. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>The Gold Coast apartment market was one of Australia's hardest hit housing market sectors through the financial crisis - with a spectacular drop in prices - although apartment prices have been rising again steadily since early 2014. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The detached housing market at Surfers Paradise is now performing very strongly, with a combination of a lower dollar (which encourages tourism), interest from China, and the upcoming Commonwealth Games all being factors working in the region's favour.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Gold Coast is also now a growing city and employment hub in its own right, with the region seeing population growth of 12,280 in FY2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The risk in such markets is that when prices rise apartment construction can go crazy leaving the market highly susceptible to corrections, with the ensuing oversupply amplifying the downturn.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date median apartment prices are in many cases still below their 2009 levels, and have not risen far enough to result in widespread overbuilding, although there are some sites under construction.</div>
<div>Indeed, after accounting for the highly seasonal nature of the market, reported vacancy rates are clearly in a multi-year downtrend. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/SQM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/10/SQM2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: SQM Research</span></em></div>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></em></div>
<div>An extremely speculative market, the fundamentals suggest a rising markets over the next couple of years or so until the next construction cycle delivers new supply in earnest (at which point it might be a good time to bail). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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Surfers Paradise fundamentals suggest a rising market over the next couple of years: Pete Wargent

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<p>Data recently released by the ABS shows that household net worth has increased substantially over recent years however, household debt is also climbing to new record highs.</p>
<p>The ABS’ recent release on finance and wealth for the December 2016 quarter showed that the net worth of Australian households was $9.405 trillion. </p>
<p>This comprised $11.710 trillion in assets minus $2.306 trillion in liabilities (including share capital). </p>
<p>Over the 12 months to December 2016, net worth has increased by 8.3% with asset values increasing by 7.9% and liabilities increasing by 6.4%. </p>
<p>The data breaks out the value of residential land and dwellings which as at the end of 2016 was valued at $6.114 trillion having increased by 8.3% over the year. </p>
<p>Residential land and dwellings accounts for 52.2% of total household assets.</p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/2017-04-10--image1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Using the data that the ABS publishes on wealth, the Reserve Bank (RBA) publishes a number of finance ratios for households comparing debt and assets to disposable incomes.</p>
<p>At the end of 2016, the ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 188.7%, the highest on record and rising by 1.6 percentage points over the quarter and 3.1 percentage points over the year. </p>
<p>The ratio of housing debt to disposable income was recorded at 133.8% which was also a record high. </p>
<p>Based on this data, 70.9% of total household debt was housing debt. </p>
<p>Over the quarter, housing debt increased by 1.5 percentage points and was 4.5 percentage points higher over the year.</p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/2017-04-10--image2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While the ratios of household and housing debt to disposable incomes is at record-high levels, so too are the ratios of household and housing assets to disposable incomes. </p>
<p>The ratio of housing assets to disposable incomes sits at 910.6% having increased by 23.2 basis points over the quarter and 42.2 basis points over the year. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the ratio of housing assets to disposable income sits at 500.4% having increased by 18.2 basis points over the quarter and 23.8 basis points over the year. </p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/2017-04-10--image3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Comparing household debt to assets results in a ratio of 20.7% while the figure for housing debt to housing assets is 26.7%. </p>
<p>This indicates that although household and housing debt is at an historic high level, the value of the assets that this debt is held against is also higher than it has ever been. </p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/2017-04-10--image3.1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data within this report should be viewed with some caution because it is not a granular analysis; so while the national figures may show a strong financial position, at smaller geographies, particularly where dwelling values are falling, the position is likely to be dramatically different. </p>
<p>With regard to debt, the figure is measured as a national measure and includes those households that are renting and those that own a home but carry no housing debt.</p>
<p>Some households have held their homes for many years and paid down a substantial amount of the debt on the home. </p>
<p>For those that have either recently purchased, bought at the peak of a market which has since declined or those using interest-only mortgages they are unlikely to be in such a strong position as the national figures indicate. </p>
<p>Those that don’t own a property asset are also likely to have substantially less household assets than those that do own a home.</p>
<p>Overall household debt is higher than it has ever been and although asset values are also at a record high, there remains concerns about how healthy it is to have such high levels of private debt. </p>
<p>Furthermore, high debt, particularly for recent purchasers of residential properties, creates risks in the event of a housing market downturn which could see home owners enter into a period of negative equity. </p>
<p>Especially with the heightened level of investor purchasing recently, investors have demonstrated a greater willingness to sell at a loss because that loss can be offset against future gains. </p>
<p>Those that own owner occupied property do not enjoy a similar ability to offset these losses and are potentially much more financially vulnerable in the event of a housing market downturn. </p>
<p>The high level of household debt is also expected to limit the ability for the RBA to lift interest rates suggesting that a neutral cash rate setting will be lower than it has been in the past.</p>
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