<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Joel Robinson

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Breaking into the Sydney property market has long felt out of reach for many first home buyers, particularly as median house prices sit above $1.6 million and unit prices push beyond $900,000.</p>

<p>But entry points still exist in pockets of Greater Western Sydney, where pricing, government incentives, and product mix are aligning to make ownership more attainable.</p>

<p>Understanding where those opportunities sit, and how the numbers actually stack up, is becoming increasingly important for buyers weighing up their next move.</p>

<h2>Work out what you can actually afford</h2>

<p>Sydney is expensive, but it isn’t uniformly expensive. The Greater Parramatta region continues to offer comparatively accessible entry points, particularly for buyers open to alternative configurations like studios.</p>

<p>There's an assumption that a first home needs to be a certain size, that anything smaller than a one-bedder is a concession rather than a choice. That assumption doesn't hold up against what well-designed studios in the right location actually offer: immediate liveability, strong urban amenity, and a price point that makes the deposit target realistic rather than theoretical.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/mason-main-merrylands-249-259-merrylands-road-merrylands-nsw-2160">Mason &amp; Main</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/coronation-property">Coronation Property</a>'s multi-award winning precinct in Merrylands, studio apartments are unlike the typical studio configuration.</p>

<p>Starting from $498,000, the bedroom is fully enclosed, separated from the living area by a cavity sliding door, creating a genuinely private sleeping space that functions more like a one-bedroom apartment than a traditional open-plan studio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359814]</p>

<p>At 42 sqm internally, with an open-plan kitchen, built-in robes, modern bathroom, and separate laundry, the apartments are designed for everyday liveability rather than short-term use.</p>

<p>With a five per cent deposit under the Federal Government's First Home Guarantee, that equates to a deposit of around $24,200, achievable for many first home buyers without the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance.</p>

<h2>Understand the real cost of renting versus buying</h2>

<p>For buyers weighing up the shift from renting to owning, the numbers are closer than many expect.</p>

<p>Here’s how the numbers stack up for a studio at Mason &amp; Main (based on a $498,000 purchase):</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $498,000</li>
	<li><strong>Five per cent deposit (First Home Guarantee):</strong> ~$24,900</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount:</strong> ~$473,100</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment (6.29% variable, 30-year term):</strong> ~$675–$695/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $590–$620/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong> 6.16% - 6.47%</li>
</ul>

<p>At this level, the gap between renting and owning is relatively narrow, particularly when factoring in long-term equity, with rental returns also making the apartments a viable option for investors.</p>

<p>The rental range reflects current asking rents for remaining studio stock in the development and, based on prevailing asking prices, equates to an indicative gross rental yield of up to 6.47 per cent.</p>

<p>For buyers seeking more internal space, Mason &amp; Main also offers a range of one-bedroom apartments from $629,000, alongside larger one-bedroom plus multipurpose room configurations priced from $680,000 - all priced under $800,000 and eligible for first home buyer incentives.</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $629,000</li>
	<li><strong>20 per cent deposit:</strong> ~$125,800 (5% deposit on exchange: $31,450)</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount 80%:</strong> ~$503,200</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment:</strong> ~$720–$740/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $650–$680/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong>&nbsp;5.37% - 5.62%</li>
</ul>

<p>One-bedroom apartments continue to present a balanced option for both owner-occupiers and investors, supported by steady rental demand across Western Sydney.<span style="font-size:small"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial">&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359812]</p>

<h2>Make sure you're across the government incentives</h2>

<p>Government incentives continue to play a key role in reducing the upfront cost barrier.</p>

<p>At Mason &amp; Main, studio, one, and two-bedroom apartments are priced under $800,000, allowing eligible buyers to access a full stamp duty exemption under the NSW First Home Buyers Assistance Scheme.</p>

<p>On a $498,000 purchase, that represents a saving of roughly $17,900 that would otherwise need to be paid at settlement.</p>

<p>Combined with the First Home Guarantee, which enables purchases with as little as a five per cent deposit, the total capital required to secure a home is significantly reduced compared to traditional lending pathways.</p>

<h2>No waiting, no uncertainty</h2>

<p>For first home buyers who want to move sooner rather than later, Mason &amp; Main removes one of the more common pain points from the purchase process entirely. The development is already complete and move-in ready, meaning buyers can walk through the apartments, inspect the finishes, and have full certainty about what they're purchasing before signing anything.</p>

<p>Coronation brought in renowned architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> to design the development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The project's design drew inspiration from the area's rich heritage, in particular the nearby brickworks and aqueduct, infusing a contemporary perspective to seamlessly integrate historical influences into the design," Woods Bagot Principal Dom Alvaro says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=736]</p>

<h2>Factor in location and lifestyle</h2>

<p>Beyond the apartment itself, the surrounding infrastructure matters, particularly for a first purchase. Merrylands Station sits 350 metres from the development, putting the Parramatta CBD a five-minute drive away and the Sydney CBD roughly 25 minutes via the Western Line. Directly across the road is Stockland <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/merrylands-nsw-2160">Merrylands</a>, one of Greater Western Sydney's major retail centres.</p>

<p>At street level, Mason &amp; Main's own retail and dining precinct has more than 30 tenants trading, including Iftar, Macelleria, Hayat, San Churro, Yuzu, and Fat Jaks. Residents also have access to a resort-style pool, a Technogym-equipped gym, private dining rooms, and a rooftop terrace with panoramic views across Parramatta, the Sydney CBD, and the Blue Mountains, all exclusive to the building.</p>

<p>Due to the mix of configurations, including studios which are rarely offered in today's new apartment market, first home buyers and investors have driven Mason &amp; Main to over 90 per cent sold.</p>

<p>Coronation Property Managing Director Joe Nahas says the development is driving a revitalisation of Merrylands, setting a high standard for future developments in the area.</p>

<p>Mason &amp; Main is move-in ready and is the latest in a series of award-winning mixed-use developments by Coronation Property.</p>

<p><em>Disclaimer: Mortgage repayment figures are estimates only, based on a 6.29 per cent variable rate over a 30-year term (Canstar, April 2026). Pricing and rental estimates are indicative and based on current listings and project information. Gross yield figures are indicative and derived from asking prices and estimated rental ranges. Stamp duty savings are indicative only. Buyers should seek independent financial and legal advice before proceeding.</em></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=31751]</p>


How first home buyers can enter the Sydney property market for under $500k

<p data-end="390" data-start="110">Australia’s housing debate has rarely been more urgent. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council forecasts the country could fall around 262,000 homes short of housing needs by 2029, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing planners, governments and developers.</p>

<p data-end="514" data-start="392">In response, much of the conversation has centred on high-density towers around transport corridors and strategic centres.</p>

<p data-end="676" data-start="516">Diversified developer Coronation Property, while also focused on well-located, strategic sites, is incorporating an arguably underutilised typology, the terrace.</p>

<p data-end="983" data-start="678">Difficult to integrate into true high-rise developments, terraces have become a defining feature of Coronation’s lower-rise portfolio, including projects in Ashbury and Erskineville. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/ashbury-terraces-165-171-milton-street-ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury Terraces</a> places a stronger emphasis on this housing type, forming part of a broader community mix.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">At its Erskineville development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, terraces are more limited, with just a handful&nbsp;included within the wider, predominantly apartment-led precinct, one of the first developments to launch in Erskineville in several years.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368392]</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Terrace residents at Lillian benefit from many of the same advantages as apartment owners, the lock-up-and-leave lifestyle and access to shared amenities like the rooftop wellness space, but with significantly more space.</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Spanning multiple levels, the terraces also feature front and rear courtyards, providing direct access to the central landscaped gardens within the precinct.</p>

<h3 data-end="212" data-section-id="1n97jye" data-start="191">The terrace model</h3>

<p data-end="464" data-start="214">Terrace housing has long been part of Australia’s urban fabric. From Paddington and Surry Hills to Glebe and Annandale, rows of terrace homes have shaped neighbourhood streets, offering a housing form that sits between detached houses and apartments.</p>

<p data-end="631" data-start="466">The contemporary terrace, however, addresses many of the limitations of older designs, where narrow staircases and constrained layouts often compromised liveability.</p>

<p data-end="703" data-start="633">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368157]</p>

<p data-end="834" data-start="705">“Terraces represent one of the city’s most intelligent housing models,” says Joe Nahas, Managing Director of Coronation Property.</p>

<p data-end="1085" data-start="836">“They deliver density without losing the human scale that makes neighbourhoods liveable. In many ways, they provide a bridge between the Sydney we know and the Sydney we need to build. If Sydney is going to grow well, it can’t rely on towers alone.”</p>

<hr data-end="1090" data-start="1087" />
<h3 data-end="1124" data-section-id="1a7l0gw" data-start="1092">The evolution of the terrace</h3>

<p data-end="1262" data-start="1126">That thinking has shaped Coronation’s approach at Ashbury Terraces, where the terrace typology has been reinterpreted for modern living.</p>

<p data-end="1459" data-start="1264">Designed by SJB, the project recently received recognition at the 2026 Better Future World Design Awards, acknowledging its architectural clarity and response to the surrounding suburban context.</p>

<p data-end="1564" data-start="1461">SJB Director Adam Haddow says the intent was to evolve a familiar housing form rather than reinvent it.</p>

<p data-end="1723" data-start="1566">“The terrace is one of Sydney’s most familiar housing forms, so our approach at Ashbury was to reinterpret that typology in a contemporary way,” Haddow says.</p>

<p data-end="1888" data-start="1725">“The homes are designed to sit comfortably within the existing neighbourhood while introducing more light, landscape and shared spaces that support modern living.”</p>

<p data-end="2082" data-start="1890">Ashbury Terraces combines terraces, apartments and penthouses across a series of low-rise buildings, integrating contemporary architecture with landscaped communal spaces and resident amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2264" data-start="2084">That same typology is now being carried into Coronation’s Lillian development in Erskineville, where a smaller number of terraces sit within a predominantly apartment-led precinct.</p>

<hr data-end="2269" data-start="2266" />
<h3 data-end="2289" data-section-id="cazuws" data-start="2271">Buyer response</h3>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2291">Coronation’s decision to include terraces at Lillian was informed by strong buyer feedback from Ashbury Terraces, where purchasers were drawn to the flexibility and scale the housing type offers.</p>

<p data-end="2588" data-start="2488">One resident, Sweta Pursem, purchased a terrace as a single buyer, citing its long-term versatility.</p>

<p data-end="2720" data-start="2590">“As a single buyer, it might seem surprising that I chose a terrace over an apartment, but I was thinking long term,” Pursem says.</p>

<p data-end="2851" data-start="2722">“The terraces are incredibly versatile, catering to a range of lifestyles while still offering the space and privacy of a house.”</p>

<p data-end="2962" data-start="2853">For Pursem, the multi-level layout provides a level of functionality not typically found in apartment living.</p>

<p data-end="3202" data-start="2964">“Having a separate living area from the bedroom and home office makes everyday living feel both functional and comfortable. When friends and family come to visit, the layout gives a sense of privacy while still feeling open and spacious.”</p>

<p data-end="3279" data-start="3204">Her terrace also supports a more connected, lifestyle-driven way of living.</p>

<p data-end="3537" data-start="3281">“I love entertaining, and the courtyard is ideal for relaxed weekend drinks with friends. I tend to use each level differently throughout the day, it creates a natural rhythm between work, downtime and entertaining, which I didn’t have in apartment living.”</p>

<p data-end="3692" data-start="3539">Ashbury Terraces is now complete and ready to move in, while Lillian in Erskineville is under construction and expected to welcome residents in mid-2027.</p>


Coronation champions terraces as a key piece of Sydney’s housing mix

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">While it's possible to borrow money at significantly lower rates than reported here, mortgage rates have nudged higher over the last couple of months. </span></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Government bond yields have also crept steadily higher. </span></p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/09/RBA1.png" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p5"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/09/RBA1.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">In fact the 10-year bond yield had dropped well below 2 percent in the second half of 2016, but has since staged a strong rebound to sit around 2.70 percent. </span></p>
<p class="p5"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/09/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p class="p5"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/09/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Mortgage rates nudge higher: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="x_post-title x_entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="x_post-body-3434663202090627287" class="x_post-body x_entry-content">
<div>APRA released its quarterly property exposure figures today for the period ended 30 September 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there has been a slowdown in lending, sheesh, it's hard to make out from the chart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total domestic residential property exposures increased by +7.9 percent from a year ago to a new high of $1.46 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Exposures are now some +130 percent higher than they were in 2008.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in exposure to investors has been stopped in its tracks, however, with new loans to investors down 14 per cent from a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, owner-occupier loans stepped in to breach the gap, with exposures rising by +12.9 percent over the year to September, and the value of new loans to homebuyers rising by some +14 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In short, lenders have switched focus from investors to homebuyers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/01/APRA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="x_separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/01/APRA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The regulator has taken a number of measures to limit riskier lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, loans of 90 percent or higher loan-to-value ratio (LVR) are now just 8.5 percent of the market, down from 22 percent in 2009. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus, most borrowers are using substantial deposits, whether borrowed from parents or from existing loans (some may even be saving deposits, who knows?!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/01/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/12/01/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="x_separator"> </div>
<br><div>Low-doc loans and loans approved outside serviceability are also now a small segment of lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a sharp pullback in the number and value of interest only loans over the past year, with this sector of the market dropping by 15 per cent from a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/01/APRA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="x_separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/01/APRA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Buried in the small print there were some upward revisions to previously reported interest only loans reported by one institution. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While exposures to investors has decreased, there does not seem to be much clarity surrounding the categorisation of outstanding loans (as evidenced by previous revisions), and as such in aggregate there may be more investors in the market than implied.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The average loan size over the year increased from $244,000 to $255,000. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
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Lenders switch focus from investors to homebuyers

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<div>The Australian National Accounts recorded that real GDP growth came in at a seasonally adjusted -0.5 percent for the third quarter and +1.8 percent for the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oops.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was the first negative quarterly result for GDP since the Queensland flood-affected quarter of March 2011, and only the fourth such result since Australia's last recession in 1991. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With a negative contribution of -0.2ppts net exports were a drag on growth this time around, and there was a big drop in public capital expenditure (for a contribution of -0.5ppts) after a surge of government investment last quarter, summarily in helicopters, healthcare, and hepatitis drugs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Household consumption contributed 0.3ppts to growth this quarter, but there wasn't much joy elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>With downward revisions to previous quarters, this takes annual GDP growth all the way down to +1.8 percent. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/08/GDP1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Nominal GDP fared somewhat better, growing by +0.5 percent in the quarter, and by +3 percent over the year.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Income boost</span></strong></p>
<div>It's often been pointed out that in a country such as Australia with its volatile bulk commodity prices, real GDP isn't always an ideal measure of how things are tracking. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this quarter, for example, there was a large +4.4 percent jump in the terms of trade, meaning that the index is now up by +1.4 percent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that the terms of trade index has been falling since Q3 2011, this is hugely welcome news!</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/08/GDP3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Behind the scenes, of course, commodity export volumes have been ramping up over time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while real GDP contracted, real gross national income, real gross disposable income and real net national disposable income all rose to record highs in the September quarter, and we can expect to see further gains in Q4. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/08/GDP5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>In real terms, gross national income increased by +0.9 percent over the quarter and +3.2 percent over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially, then, this this quarter has been the mirror image of the dynamics we've seen in previous quarters, shifting to strong income growth and weaker GDP growth.</div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Two-speed</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Research by SGS Economics and Planning has shown that Sydney and Melbourne have beendominating economic growth, while many regional economies are presently running slower as they adjust to life post-resources boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>State final demand was very weak in Western Australia at -3.8 percent as capex continues to work through its decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/12/08/GDP4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the industry level, construction was the biggest loser, contracting by -3.6 percent, and swiping some -0.3ppts from GDP growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Compensation of employees grew by +1.3 percent over the quarter and a positive +3.1 percent over the year, while the household savings ratio ticked down to 6.3 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the impact on household incomes and expenditure in a separate post. </div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<p>After 100 consecutive quarters without a recession, the economy posted a negative GDP result for the third quarter, but real national income measures surged to a record high.   </p>
<div>Whether or not we experience a technical recession next quarter is open for debate, but it looks to be unlikely based on the recent growth in retail spend. </div>
<div>
<br>Overall, strong public investment figures in the first half of the year masked a softening underlying trend in growth in the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>An annual GDP growth figure of +1.8 percent feels much more in line with the metrics we've seen elsewhere, including low employment and wages growth, soft inflation, and a budget in deficit. </div>
<div>
<br>If hours worked are said to be the best measure of the health of the economy, then the conclusion is clear: the economy stuttered in the first half of 2016, although there was at least a moderate improvement of +0.5 percent in Q3. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/12/08/GDP7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/12/08/GDP7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the face of an obviously weaker result, a key question for the government now is whether it uses low yields to borrow and invest in infrastructure, as the Reserve Bank doesn't sound particularly keen on cutting the cash rate too much further!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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A recession looks unlikely: Pete Wargent

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<p>Despite periodic warnings from the Reserve Bank about crazy prices, the Sydney market place has just had a year that no-one foresaw in terms of continued strong price growth.</p>
<p>But Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, says that homeowners’ and buyers’ sensitivity to interest rates remained "acute."</p>
<p>Any talk of rising interest rates dampens buyer enthusiasm across the Sydney property market.</p>
<p>And when rates do actually rise, the doubts set in further as buyers pause putting their hand too deep into their pockets. And often not buying at all.</p>
<p>It was no surprise that the tail end of 2016's auctions has seen a seasonal turn in the pitch as the last minute boost in numbers hits the market.</p>
<p>Clearance rates that were in the 80s, now into the mid-70 as many buyers turned off - perhaps to come back next year.</p>
<p>The recent auction market fatique also had much to do with interest rate headlines.</p>
<p>Ever since the Trump triumph in the United State in early November, its been subject to much speculation.</p>
<p>And the past fortnight has seen the big banks make early adjustments, to fixed rates more so than the more popular variable home loans. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth Bank, the country’s biggest lender lifted the rate of its popular 3-year fixed rate by 0.20 percentage points to 4.24 percent.</p>
<p>It also lifted its longer-term 5-year fixed rate by 0.60 percentage points to 4.74 percent.</p>
<p>CBA was following Westpac with a RateCity.com.au analysis showing a further 20 lenders had lifted rates 268 fixed products since November 1.  </p>
<p>Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au said fixed rates are based on market expectations of future rates and "are the best indicator that we’ve got that a variable rate hike on the way.".</p>
<p>“Previously, banks were betting on lower rates in the future but we’re seeing those expectations change by the day."</p>
<div id="x_x_story-description">
<p>All the recent talk and then movements will dictate the direction of house price growth in 2017, having already started to dampened the market.</p>
<p>There are two substantive price forecasts out for 2017. </p>
<p>Housing price growth of between 5 and 6 percent is expected for 2017 for detached houses is tipped by Paul Bloxham, the HSBC chief economist.</p>
<p>He expects Sydney apartment prices to track at a slower pace than detached houses at between 0 and 4 percent.</p>
<p>Bloxham noted what he called a substantial 66 percent ramp-up in housing prices in Sydney since mid-2012.</p>
<p>He added some of the price growth was at a "worrisome pace" of Sydney price growth, particularly in 2014 and 2015.</p>
<p>But following a tightening in prudential settings starting in late 2014, housing price growth had slowd from double-digit growth last year to high single-digit rates this year.</p>
<p>The other forecast came from SQM's Louis Christopher who has more often got it right than wrong.</p>
<p>He suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reign in home lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both to avert a dangerous housing bubble.</p>
<p>Christopher suggested a scenario house prices in Sydney could rise between 11 and 16 percent given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies.</p>
<p>The early November forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA.</p>
<p>A rate rise by the RBA of 25bps would curtail the rising Sydney market to beween 8 and 13 percent for the year.</p>
<p><em>The article first appeared in the Saturday Telegraph</em></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What will happen to Sydney prices in 2017?

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<div>A couple of things happened in 2016 that changed the outlook for interest rates in Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Swaps had been seeking out lower and lower rates, yet fairly abruptly around September time someone or something called time on that particular party.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, what happened?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It wasn't that the economy suddenly became stronger. Hardly! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, GDP growth was actually negative for the third quarter of the calendar year, while employment growth went backwards in the months of both August and September too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And all measures of inflation are actually below the target 2 to 3 per cent range.<br><br>Then, what? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Change of Governor</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While we should be wary of imposing simplistic narratives over historical trends (with hindsight giving the supposed benefit of 20/20 vision), it appears that the change in Reserve Bank Governor may have been a factor.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the month of September, Philip Lowe began suggested that interest rate cuts are losing their power, and seemed to infer that further cuts would only be delivered reluctantly, if at all.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>From the first meeting he chaired in the first week of October, the <a href="https://rba.gov.au/media-releases/2016/mr-16-26" target="_blank">wording</a> of the Monetary Policy Statement concluded that policy was consistent with growth and inflation returning to target over time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the day of that October meeting, 6-month OIS rates have trended only in an hawkish direction, from 1.42 per cent back up to 1.50 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<p> </p>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia now has a duty to "keep consumer price inflation in the economy to 2 to 3 per cent, on average, over the medium term", apparently implying no immediate need to cut rates.</p>
<div> </div>
<div>Trump bump</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The other significant event in 2016 was Donald Trump's election victory in the US, which promptly changed the inflation outlook.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's bond yields had already starting ticking back up before Trump's election triumph, with the yield on government bonds with a 10-year maturity recovering from a low of just 1.83 per cent in August to 2.31 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But then, after an initial post-election blip, the 10-year bond yield increased sharply to 2.87 per cent, before settling down a bit to finish the year at 2.78 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/03/RBA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/03/RBA5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Easy, tiger!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Through November the indicative standard variable rate (SVR) for owner-occupier mortgages was 5.25 per cent, although of course by shopping around you can get much better deals than this (the indicative discounted rate was reported at 4.50 per cent, for example). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reported 3-year fixed rates for both owner-occupiers and investors were lower again at 4.10 per cent and 4.25 per cent respectively. </div>
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Can you comfortably afford to repay a mortgage in a 6% or even 7% scenario?: Pete Wargent

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<p>Approaching the halfway mark of the year with record low interest rates and consumer confidence back sees the market remaining strong with increases in values through several sectors of the market, including the real estate market in NSW's Coffs Harbour, say valuation firm Herron Todd White in their July 2016 residential market report.</p>
<p>Buyers in the $500,000 bracket can expect to purchase good quality five to 20 year old 3- or 4-bedroom, 2- or 3- bathroom homes on varying size sites located within two to three kilometres of the Coffs Harbour CBD and local beaches.</p>
<p>Standard new project style 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes range between $450,000 and $550,000 in the smaller central Coffs estates and southern suburbs of Bonville and Boambee East.</p>
<p>The more modern upmarket estate known as The Lakes at North Boambee Valley (two kilometres from the CBD) starts at around $500,000 for new 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes.</p>
<p>"If you are after more bang for your $500,000, the older established areas south of Coffs Harbour at Boambee East and Toormina will get you a five to 30 year old larger better quality 4- to 5-bedroom home with double garage and pool," says HTW.</p>
<p>Traditionally, these areas are of a more modest standard with values in the $300,000 to $450,000 range. These areas are well located close to the Pacific Highway for access north and south and are also located within two to three kilometres of the popular Sawtell Beach and shopping precinct. The major shopping centre at Centro Tormina is underpinned with K-Mart, Woolworths and Coles. Schools include primary and public high schools plus nearby St Josephs College and Southern Cross University.</p>
<p>The older homes within the northern beaches suburbs of Korora, Sapphire Beach, Moonee Beach and Emerald Beach have always been solid investments in the $500,000 to $600,000 bracket which buys 20 to 30 year old properties of good size located close to beaches and not far from major facilities in Coffs Harbour.</p>
<p>One area to watch is the beach side township of Woolgoolga, 30 kilometres north of Coffs Harbour. A traditionally strong agricultural area with good infrastructure, the recent bypass upgrade of the Pacific Highway and opening of Woolworths shopping centre only adds to the appeal.</p>
<p>Look to the southern side of Woolgoolga at Sandy Beach for the cheap beachside properties. Price points are generally under $450,000 for one to 30 year old homes of modest construction, with esplanade position properties going between $500,000 and $650,000. This area is still under developed with easy access to Woolgoolga and Coffs Harbour. The recent purchase of a large beachside development site will see substantial future residential development taking place which will lead to better infrastructure.</p>
<p>The Coffs Coast locality saw little capital growth over the GFC period, however the past 12 to 18 months has seen the market bottom and the start of the recovery.</p>
<p>"Traditionally we have not experienced the high levels of capital growth of the major cites due to the fairly low economic base within the region. Limited job opportunities does put a cap on the growth experienced in the mid to upper price brackets, while the majority of growth is centred under the $500,000 mark," HTW concludes.</p>
<p>As an example of recent affordable sales, Property Observer found a three-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-coffs+harbour-122873066" target="_blank">15 Sunnyside Cl, Coffs Harbour, NSW 2450</a> (above) which traded hands for $365,000. To put things in perspective, the median house price in Coffs Harbour was $425,000, according to CoreLogic </p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Coffs Harbour promises quality homes in $500,000 range: HTW

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<p>Rental growth was flat at just 0.6 percent over the year to March 2017, according to the ABS inflation figures.</p>
<p>This is the equal lowest annual percentage growth since 1994, largely reflecting the new supply of apartments hitting the capital cities on the east coast.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/27/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<div id="post-body-3862946038801712568" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/27/A6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The national figure obscures contrasting fortunes around the capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney recorded annual growth in its rental CPI of 2.5 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Melbourne rental price growth has been picking up over the past five quarters, although only to 1.7 percent year-on-year according to the ABS series (there has been considerably stronger growth in asking prices). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hobart recorded the fastest annual growth of the capital cities at 4.2 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Canberra there has not been much to see in aggregate, but anecdotally there is a view that the annual land tax has turned investors away from houses leading to a shortage of detached rental stock (though as in most capitals there is clearly no shortage of new apartments, which has compensated tenants for now).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Darwin rents declined by 7.4 percent year-on-year, although this actually represents an improvement on the preceding quarter's drop.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And in Perth, rents were down by 7.3 percent year-om-year, having now dropped by 12.1 percent from their peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/27/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/27/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>In Brisbane nominal rents remain positive, but there's no doubt that inner city apartments rents are set for a tumble, as evidenced by the "for lease" banners strewn around the inner city.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This from yesterday...</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PotrGvJHDlc/WQDxsUvwVtI/AAAAAAAAjbQ/tUknpxnVbnQqjWV1PrKg-ApGxG14UBZPgCLcB/s1600/IMG_1655.JPG"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PotrGvJHDlc/WQDxsUvwVtI/AAAAAAAAjbQ/tUknpxnVbnQqjWV1PrKg-ApGxG14UBZPgCLcB/s640/IMG_1655.JPG" width="640" height="480"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Benign inflation</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>The above figures feed in to the benign inflation picture.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, while dwelling construction is expected to remain strong for some time in Sydney, new apartment projects are now being shelved or scrapped practically by the week in Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As each new Brisbane apartment project completes this will leave a small hole in the economy, which cumulatively will act as a drag on growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For this reason the government will be looking to loosen the purse strings to pave the way for infrastructure projects to plug the hole, which can be achieved through borrowing without unnecessarily crippling the budget.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A final point, the Sydney market has seen rents outpace CPI by a factor of two over the past ten years to rise by 56 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/27/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/27/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div>This reflects that Sydney's construction boom was still addressing an inherent undersupply until recently, but stay alert because the balance is about to swing sharply in favour of tenants over the next couple of years. </div>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Rental growth at two-decade low: Pete Wargent

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<p>Amid increasingly irrational media coverage of property markets, occasionally there is a mild outbreak of common sense.</p>
<p>It’s doesn’t happen often, but sometimes someone who understands real estate and doesn’t have publicity as their prime objective will comment – and a media outlet will actually print it.</p>
<p>It’s unusual because media tends to favour sensational negatives from non-specialists for whom the main motivation is generation of publicity.</p>
<p>Amid the great seething mass of nonsense about housing affordability – dominated by people arguing their vested interest, political world-view or pet theory, often with a silver-bullet miracle solution – there is the occasional commentator who understands the issue.</p>
<p>This rare moment of common sense on the affordability issue came from Ken Morrison, CEO of the Property Council of Australia:</p>
<p>“For 20 years we have had a logjam of costly regulation, poor planning decisions and excessive taxation across all levels of government. This has driven up construction costs, impeded supply and resulted in the dramatic increase in house prices in our major cities …</p>
<p>“This affordability cauldron has taken years to develop, and it will take concerted effort over many years to unwind ...</p>
<p>"Too much of the housing affordability debate has misdiagnosed the problems, focused on measures that won't do anything to fix affordability, or set out to blame scapegoats for political convenience.”</p>
<p>That’s the best summary of the issue I’ve seen in all these years of hot air, parliamentary inquiries, political rhetoric, media outrage and lack of decisive action. But it has been drowned by the tsunami of emotive misinformation that has dominated the “debate”.</p>
<p>Then we have the issue of the alleged bubble, over-valuation of housing and impending collapse of values – usually from overseas observers looking at Australia through a very long telescope, although also from the usual local suspects such as Shane “Why can’t I ever get this right?” Oliver or Steve “Why are people still listening to me?” Keen.</p>
<p>Media just loves hearing from anyone silly enough to predict that our housing values will fall massively.</p>
<p>And then, recently, out of the blue someone with a rational, well-thought-out viewpoint was given some minor airplay.</p>
<p>Stephen Halmarick, chief economist at Colonial First State Global Asset Management (Australia’s biggest fund manager), said that the risks of a residential property crash were being exaggerated. He said he’s heard stories of impending doom in the property market for most of his 30-year career, but he doesn’t see any more risk of a crash this time.</p>
<p>“I do get a little bit worked up sometimes when I read in the paper that there will be lots of mortgage stress if interest rates rise sharply,” Halmarick said. “But inflation would have to increase dramatically above the target range before that occurs. So you ask yourself the probability of those things happening - and I think it is pretty low …</p>
<p>“I’ve seen so-called experts from overseas — usually Americans — saying that the housing market in Australia is a bubble that’s going to burst and take the banking system with it. They’ve been telling me that for 25 years and they’re still wrong.”</p>
<p>While he conceded that there are pockets of concern in the eastern capital cities, Halmarick said the Australian housing market “isn’t as vulnerable as some of the headlines would lead you to believe”. And he does not see much risk to the financial system from the property market.</p>
<p>“People just look at gross debt to income, which is high, at 190%,” he said. “But if you look at net debt to income — taking account of the redraw facilities — household debt has been roughly flat since 2006 because people have used the lower interest rates to repay their mortgages faster.</p>
<p>“So the value of housing assets has gone up a lot, as have super funds and other investments of households. So their net wealth continues to rise and is actually close to record highs.”</p>
<p>Many articles have characterised the current situation as a national property boom, with prices either soaring or skyrocketing – everywhere, apparently – and “white hot” markets running rampant with growth that is unprecedented.</p>
<p>And then recently Property Observer quietly put that into perspective with some data which showed that, compared to the previous cycle, it’s all far from extraordinary and unprecedented.</p>
<p>It reported that capital city dwelling values (the average across the eight cities) have risen 45 percent in the past seven years, compared to a rise of 98 percent in the previous seven years (2000 to 2007).</p>
<p>“So far this decade, dwelling values growth is less than half that over the same period last decade,” Property Observer reported.</p>
<p>This is because that previous period included the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide property boom. In 2003, according to ABS data, every capital city grew at least 13 percent in terms of median house prices, with four cities above 20 percent growth.</p>
<p>We haven’t had anything remotely like that this time around. The overall city growth figure for the past seven years is relatively low because only Sydney has had consecutive years of double-digit growth, while Melbourne has only recently challenged. Perth and Darwin have been going backwards for four years, while Adelaide and Brisbane have delivered very little growth. Hobart and Canberra have recently sprung to life.</p>
<p>So the scenario across the past four years has been big performance in Sydney, un-matched by any other city. Sydney’s situation dominates coverage by media, which has tended to extrapolate the city’s growth and pricing levels to the rest of the nation, creating a national crisis.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">hotspotting.com.au</span></a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank"><span class="s2">email him</span></a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank"><span class="s2">Twitter.</span></a></span></p>
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Common sense can prevail in the housing affordability issue: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>Based on the relationship between demonstrated housing demand and advertised stock levels we are seeing relatively more stock available for sale compared to demand for that stock across the capital cities at the moment.</p>
<p>The months of supply figure compares the number of unique properties advertised for sale to the number of transactions in the market. The analysis provides unique insight into how long it should take to clear the volume of stock currently available for sale. It is important to note that off-the-plan housing stock is typically not advertised for sale as individual properties and as a result is not included within this analysis.</p>
<p>Across the combined capital cities, there is currently 4.4 months’ worth of residential properties being advertised for sale. As the first chart shows, the months of supply is currently higher at this point of the year than it has been each year since 2012. The increasing months of supply is largely due to the slowing rate of transaction activity rather than a spike in properties available for sale, indicating demand has diminished relative to advertised supply levels which is pushing the figure higher.<br><br><a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/property-pulse/article-graphs-img/2017-05-15--image1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/19/rsz_kusherchart.png" width="700" height="425"></p>
<p>Sydney – there is currently 3.0 months of established housing supply available for sale across the city. The city has seen consistently low months of supply over recent years however, the figure is currently at its highest level for this time of year since 2012.</p>
<p>Melbourne – established housing stock currently sits at 4.2 months of supply for the city. Supply levels remain quite low but are at their highest levels for this time of year in five years.</p>
<p>Brisbane – the city currently has 5.1 months of established housing stock available for sale. The months of supply figure is higher than it has been at this time of year for each of the past five years.</p>
<p>Adelaide – there is currently 3.7 months of established housing stock available for sale. Although stock levels are higher than they were at this time over the past two years, stock levels were higher over the three years previous to that.</p>
<p>Perth – at the moment there is 8.3 months of established housing stock available for sale throughout the city. This is a high months of supply figure relative to other capital but it is well down on the 8.7 months at the same time last year.</p>
<p>Hobart – the months of supply figure for Hobart is the lowest it has been for many years. There is currently 4.1 months’ worth of established stock available for sale which is down from 5.0 months a year ago and the 7.2 months the year previous.</p>
<p>Darwin – across the city there is currently 6.7 months of established housing supply which is well down on the 10.5 months at the same time a year ago and 7.5 months over the previous year.</p>
<p>Canberra – there is currently 2.6 months of supply of established housing stock for sale in Canberra. The months of supply level is the same as what it was a year ago but lower than the previous years highlighted.</p>
<p>Based on these figures it seems that the supply of stock for sale relative to demand is increasing in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Meanwhile demand is outweighing supply in Hobart and Canberra leading to a decline in the months of supply. In Perth and Darwin supply continues to dramatically outweigh demand but the balance is slowly improving. In Adelaide there has been little change in months of supply over recent years suggesting the market is in relative equilibrium.</p>
<p>Cameron Kusher is a research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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Fewer buyers results in greater months of supply: Cameron Kusher

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<p class="Body1">A number of indicators suggest that Melbourne’s strong run of price rises may be nearing an end.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt the Melbourne market overall is strong and currently one of the most buoyant in the nation. Some research sources have Melbourne house price growth ahead of Sydney now, although others in the land of dodgy data still have Sydney leading. </p>
<p>An analysis by Performance Property Advisory finds that the key indicators, while slightly mixed, suggest that Melbourne is now coming to the end of its growth cycle.</p>
<p>Indicators which point to a moderation in price growth include the firm’s affordability index, the level of rental yields, the high price growth in the past three years relative to longer-term trends and a decline in the influence of foreign investors.</p>
<p>Director David McMillan says: “From an investment point of view, Melbourne is showing all the signs of a market running out of steam.”</p>
<p>He says the firm’s Affordability Index (AI) is currently sitting at 43 percent and historically the Melbourne market has struggled to grow past this point.</p>
<p>“Properties become unaffordable in Melbourne when the market’s AI rises to around 45 percent,” he says. “Melbourne’s AI is hovering around the 43 percent mark, indicating that properties are approaching a natural ceiling. The most likely outcome is a low-growth environment over the next 2-3 years.” </p>
<p>McMillan says that from 2009 to 2016, incomes rose approximately 15 percent while house prices rose 79 percent.</p>
<p>“The out-performance of house prices against incomes is, in our view, unsustainable and this is a negative for future price growth in Melbourne,” he says.</p>
<p>“It is clear that the three-year price movement is well above trend at 12.96 percent per annum. On that basis it could be said that the Melbourne market is likely to slow down in the short term.” </p>
<p>McMillan also notes that Melbourne has the second lowest yields among the major cities, with only Sydney lower. “Due to an out-performing median house price, we have seen yields progressively deteriorating, which is a negative for both investors and first-home buyers,” he says. </p>
<p>The report says total foreign investment in Victoria has quadrupled in the last three years, from around $6.6 billion to $26.6 billion, but is expected to decline in the coming year.</p>
<p>“While we encourage foreign investment, the phenomenal rise has led to over-speculation and over-building in some pockets of Melbourne – the consequences of which are yet to be fully understood by the market.</p>
<p>“Given that the banks have now ceased lending to foreigners, we expect that this number will reduce as much as $10 billion in the 2017 financial year. The large swings in foreign investment have distorted normal market cycles and are expected to lead to increased supply.”</p>
<p>But price decline is not expected, as there are counter-balancing positives for the Melbourne market. They include a high level of proposed infrastructure spending by the federal and state governments, the low rate of unemployment, relatively low levels of stock for sale, a low “Days On Market” indicator, and strong levels of population growth (both existing and projected future rises). </p>
<p>“Victoria has gone from being a loser from Net Interstate Migration in the 1990s, to a fairly neutral position during the 2000s, to being a winner since 2010, which has been a key factor of the price growth we have seen since 2009.”</p>
<p>Performance Property does note, however, that there has been a level of oversupply in B and C grade housing and apartment stock.</p>
<p>It recommends that investors avoid the off-the-plan apartment market and I wholeheartedly endorse that. “This market is showing no value and price falls in the short term are possible,” McMillan says. “There are no fundamentals that support price growth in the short term. </p>
<p>But he does see some value opportunities in the Lifestyle and Middle Ring housing markets. </p>
<p>“This is really a tale of two markets, with house-and-land packages on the metro fringe and inner-city off-the-plan property over-supplied, while the established school belt areas of Melbourne are in short supply,” he says.</p>
<p><span>Terry Ryder is the founder of </span><a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a><span>. You can </span><a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a><span> or follow him on </span><a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
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