South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.

The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]

Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.

Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]

Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.

Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]

The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.

Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.

Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.

The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.

Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.

&nbsp;

Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.

“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.

"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."

On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;

The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.

Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.

The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.

Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”

The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.

“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.

Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.

“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.

“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”

<img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" />

The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.

The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."

The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.

“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."

<img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.

The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.

First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.

Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.

That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]

The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.

Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.

That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]

The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.

Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]

Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.

A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.

Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]

Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.

Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.

They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.

<img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" />

Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.

They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.

"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.

"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."

Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.

First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
All capital cities recorded a rise in residential prices in the March 2020 quarter, led by Sydney (+1.9 per cent) and Melbourne (+2.1 per cent). 
The two largest cities both recorded gains of more than +10 per cent over the year, taking the weighted average capital city price +7.4 per cent higher over the year to March.
Most of the COVID restrictions were rolled out in March, so there was little impact on the price charts by capital city. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW2.jpg" alt="">
Sydney houses and attached dwellings both recorded quarterly gains.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW3.jpg" alt="">
The mean dwelling price rose to a record high at an estimated $690,200.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW4.jpg" alt="">
The number of dwellings was an estimated 10,485,700.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW5.jpg" alt="">
The value of Australia's dwelling stock hit a record high, with a preliminary estimate of $7.23 trillion.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW6.jpg" alt="">
The ratio of dwelling stock to GDP increased to 3.79x, but was still just below 2017 levels.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW7.jpg" alt="">
This is a high figure in global terms, but plenty lower than, say, Hong Kong.
Pete Wargent is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Average capital city dwelling prices hit record high: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Personal insolvencies hit their lowest level since 1990 in the December 2019 quarter, and were again some -16.5 per cent lower year-on-year in the March 2020 quarter.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sxieSq_ZTC4/Xun2fAevMFI/AAAAAAAA2ZI/Ml-BL6k_1nM57rxesOG0ZtKB6hj74PUMACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1379">
 
This is all the more remarkable when you consider the stats on a per capita rolling annual basis, where they appeared to be racing towards zero in the March quarter.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bxLLz7PwC1Y/Xun3Bey1VFI/AAAAAAAA2ZU/r2Y9lNeAZCAVu2SZELwfoUeIhvH7Va3JQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1366">
Part IV and XI bankruptices were also some 16 per cent lower year-on-year.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2itXxsBidoQ/Xun2fN0rv6I/AAAAAAAA2ZE/wNgH8--8tKoMG-qaG4ABsusYNNmGT-yWwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1348">
ASIC's insolvency figures all showed a sharp drop in insolvencies in April, presumably partly related to the government's stimulus measures.
Construction insolvencies also fell to a series low in the March 2020 quarter, thanks to low interest rates perhaps.
 <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HqPTq923vAY/Xun4AUD8h8I/AAAAAAAA2Zg/up6jQvL6pAAklQRSWSF8KXd5QO1uUOAQQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ASIC.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1353">
Let's see what September brings, and whether or not there is a financial 'cliff' (not if the government is smart about things).
</body></html>

Personal insolvencies remain at their lowest levels in 30 years: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
Auction volumes were down week on week across the combined capital cities, with a total of 1,185 homes scheduled for auction. The lower activity which we have historically noted over school holiday periods, returned a preliminary clearance rate of 65.1%. 
Across Australia’s two largest auction markets, the lower activity across both cities saw the clearance rate improve.
There were 439 Melbourne homes taken to auction returning a preliminary clearance rate of 64.3%, which was higher than last week’s preliminary figure of 62.7% across 645 auctions, with a final result of 61%.
In Sydney, 563 homes were auctioned this week returning a preliminary clearance rate of 68.1%, higher than last week’s 66.9% preliminary result, when a higher number of auctions were held (644). The final clearance rate last week came in at 62.9%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/6/CL%20JULY%207%20CC.JPG" alt="">
Over the past 12 months across the capital city markets every city has seen a decrease in total listings with Melbourne faring the best and Perth as well as Canberra being hit the hardest.
Across new listings however, both Melbourne and Sydney have seen large increases around 20% with the only other market seeing an increase being Perth.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

New listings soar across Melbourne and Sydney: CoreLogic

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
There was an explosion in refinancing in May 2020, taking total lending to owner-occupiers up to record monthly highs.
<div>This will effectively act as a rate cut (or perhaps two) for many of these borrowers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But once you strip out the massive surge of 21,227 refinancing approvals there was the expected decline in housing lending, as the economy was largely shut back in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yWq-irN9dW0/XwbTJxh4-SI/AAAAAAAA20s/5dEKYeBiYAgbWo7vhdZcP-KzysZKDHokwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1446"></div>
 Activity was down pretty much everywhere, as you might reasonably expect. 
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 First homebuyer transactions were...down. 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sGhJPexKkIg/XwbTKB_5ehI/AAAAAAAA200/vZgfMriJ0Aciy7SKOXutbhW7eH4fxaygQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1403"></div>
 
<div>And the average mortgage size also declined, although borrowing capacity for many borrowers has increased compared to 18 months ago thanks to the salvo of five interest rate cuts, and the average mortgage size was up by some +18 per cent from a year earlier. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-virz7qued7w/XwbTzoWDEcI/AAAAAAAA21M/Fs00WsrcCiwdHa0UsefJ8nR8AzWaC6UIQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1404"></div>
 
<div>In particular borrowers in Sydney and Melbourne have been flexing their extra borrowing capacity over the past year or so. </div>
 
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 The wrap 
<div>Overall, once you strip out the huge rip in refinancing there was much less housing lending and transactional activity in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing prices have drifted a little lower since rolling over around the end of Q1 2020, but on much thinner volumes, and stock levels have fallen very sharply which has somewhat underpinned prices.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Naturally the Victorian government now opting for a fresh six-week lockdown is going to lead another wave of local business closures over July and August, which will bring its own downside risks for Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney, on the other hand, is now steadily reopening for business, and most other housing markets have been fairly flat through the COVID shutdown.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course the lending figures are, as always, old news, reflective of historic activity from the end of April to the end of May.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More timely indicators from the REA Group appear to be relatively upbeat.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Pete Wargent is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
</div>
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Refinancing explodes to record high: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In brighter news, there's been no COVID-19 community transmission to speak of in Australia this week...ex-Victoria. 
Unfortunately the Victorian government's shocking mismanagement of hotel quarantine means that there's now a potentially nasty second wave of the virus spreading exclusively in that state. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xOh3b4Tga-M/Xwn9wtOrb4I/AAAAAAAA25w/iEmfMiNIxQgg1LywLx57S7j_pky0hB5IQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1424">
With another couple of hundred cases over the past 24 hours Victoria now has 1,124 active cases.  
Elsewhere local cases have essentially been running at zero all week, which is a great result. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eynQCsE-Zi4/Xwn9-8_aB4I/AAAAAAAA254/rYXy5NxU5lc1mZ-OaFR1YfceGXg9UYhsgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1409">
Victoria will now go into another lockdown, this time for at least six weeks, which is a disastrous hammer blow for the local economy. 
Auctions slump
Sydney recorded rock solid auction results on Saturday, with the median price of property sold under the hammer rising to $1,260,000. 
In Melbourne. however, auction success volumes and results have unsurprisingly begun to plummet as consumer confidence has been demolished by the lockdown announcement. Alas it's now only a matter of time before someone rolls out another 'tale of two cities headline'...sigh.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bS9hrg3w0aM/Xwn-fG6nTCI/AAAAAAAA26I/K1-zMVsC9cE0307sg6isljwJ2gh9q--YACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AUc.jpg" width="640" height="132" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="681">
To date Melbourne's housing prices have fallen by about 3 per cent since April.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kOYG-7W4zJU/Xwn_kvtbqkI/AAAAAAAA26U/sEObUN7SdaYsMamI1aEtXuej2Lsf2vfMgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV3.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1447">
Look out below
I'm not usually in the business of making serious predictions, which are usually broad brush and often prove to be pointless.
But these sorts of auction results in Melbourne have normally been commensurate with something close to double digit pace declines in housing prices, and in all likelihood may point to a 10 to 20 per cent decline in Melbourne's market. Given that Greater Melbourne is Australia's second largest economic hub - and that it's long been accounting for such a significant share of growth - the decision to lock down for six weeks has all but cruelled the chance of a meaningful recovery any time soon. 
Research across half a century of historical data from the Bank of England has shown that falling house prices lead to fear of negative equity, falling confidence, and consumers declining to spend, borrow, or invest.
 If the Federal government wants to stand any chance of getting the Australian economy back on its feet this year the Treasurer should announce on July 23 a temporary stamp duty holiday for the remainder of 2020 (and fund the difference for the states by making use of bond yields at record lows).
Alternatively, and more sustainably, broaden the GST and raise the rate to 12.5 per cent. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Melbourne lockdown kills chance for a meaningful property recovery: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
Millennials are less likely to own a home than previous generations were at the same age.<a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sold-home-sale-real-estate-sign-168053771?src=MyyBDZW8tOfFl2Au5es9xg-1-2"> </a>
It used to be that everyone wanted to buy a home, seeking pleasure and security, as well as the potential for future wealth.
But younger Americans are buying homes far less often than their elders’ generations did, and that puts a large sector of the U.S. economy at risk.
<a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/96221/homeownership_and_the_american_dream_0.pdf" target="_blank">Millennial home ownership levels</a> are dramatically lower than the those of previous generations at a similar age. In 1985, 45.5% of 25- to 34-year-olds owned homes in the U.S. By 2015, this had fallen about 25%.
Since the housing industry currently accounts for <a href="https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/housings-economic-impact/housings-contribution-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp.aspx" target="_blank">15% to 18% of the nation’s gross domestic product</a>, any change in established behaviour could have substantial consequences on the larger economy.
<a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rBUYZnsAAAAJ&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">Researchers like me</a> who are interested in the future of the U.S. economy are faced with some difficult questions about how millennials’ behaviour is changing the housing market.
My recent research suggests that both increases and decreases in home prices can be directly tied to where millennials choose to live. If a long-term behavioural change is afoot, and this generation continues not to buy homes, it will very directly impact GDP.
Homeownership
Research has shown that younger generations <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2018/accounting-age-financial-health-millennials" target="_blank">lag behind</a> previous generations in terms of milestones like homeownership and marriage.
One of the assets that set previous generations apart is home equity. In 2001, Gen-Xers held an average of US$130,000 in assets, compared to millennials in 2016 that held almost 31% less.
However, assets attributed to home equity are subject to the whims of the housing market. Just ask anyone <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story" target="_blank">still underwater</a> on a home purchased before the financial crisis.
And home equity isn’t just vulnerable to large-scale economic upheavals. In fact, it’s constantly fluctuating.
Age and cost
I analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau and American Community Survey from about 800 of the most populous counties in the U.S., or about 85% of the population, in a study that has not yet been published. The data show a rather disconcerting trend.
If no one ever moved from one county to another, almost all counties would gradually grow older in terms of average age.
However, the migration of primarily younger individuals has caused an escalation in this ageing shift. Some areas are ageing much more quickly than expected. In those areas, home prices have been vulnerable to long-term declines.
In other words, the trend of rising or falling home values follows patterns of migration in the U.S.
<iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Omibc/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
From 2010 to 2016, counties with ageing populations were about 50% more likely to have experienced a decline in home values than those counties that were becoming “younger.” Not surprisingly, counties that were becoming younger were often experiencing increases in both populations and in the prices of homes.
Two areas that provide an illustration of this are key to the oil and gas industry: the Midland-Odessa area of Texas and Ward County, North Dakota. Both areas have experienced not only a net decrease in the age of residents, but also a net increase in population.
This is far from a rural phenomenon. In Allegheny County, the Pennsylvania county that’s home to Pittsburgh, a similar increase in population has also decreased the average age of its residents.
<iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lGbVg/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The cost of a home
Millennials’ migration to particular counties has fuelled <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse/the-marketpulse-vol-8-issue-4-april-2019-screen-041719.pdf" target="_blank">speculative real estate transactions</a>.
In 2018, such transactions are reaching levels just below the pre-crisis highs, accounting for almost 11% of all homes sold last year. The prices are inflated by buyers looking to “flip” houses. This forces younger buyers to compete with the professionals, pushing them out of the markets they are migrating to.
Younger buyers are further frustrated by the cost of what economists refer to as frictions. Frictions include <a href="https://www.realtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/RT_0618News.pdf" target="_blank">commissions that average 5% to 6%</a> of the purchase price, myriad inspection and appraisal fees, as well as mortgage and title insurance. All of this runs counter to the transparency and ease of access many millennials have become used to in the modern world.
Since the younger generation is <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/96221/homeownership_and_the_american_dream_0.pdf" target="_blank">better educated</a>, one might expect significant wage increases to counter some of these frictions. But recent graduates between the ages of 22 and 27 <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/college-labor-market_wages" target="_blank">earn about 2% less</a> than their predecessors did in 1990.
If <a href="https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted" target="_blank">home prices</a> had also stayed relatively flat, this likely wouldn’t be an issue. However, from 2000 to the present, average home prices have increased by about 3.8% annually, though this varies dramatically from county to county.
<iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3A5rK/2/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
As urban areas continue to attract more new residents, many young people may need to reassess the true value that home ownership offers. Meanwhile, older generations are likely just becoming aware of the impact of millennial migration on the American dream. If you live in an area that is ageing faster than the natural rate, the probability of your home value decreasing is very real.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115830/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Jimmie Lenz, Clinical Assistant Professor of Finance, University of South Carolina
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-millennials-are-affecting-the-price-of-your-home-115830" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How millennials are affecting the price of your home: Jimmie Lenz

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div id="post-body-8300417078442297736" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>One of the most important releases of the global calendar, the US nonfarm payrolls, confirmed things are turning back down in the face of slower growth and trade war concerns. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Earlier in the week there had been a similarly weak indicator from a private payrolls report.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nonfarm payroll employment increased by just +75,000 in May 2019 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and critically there were also substantial downwards revisions to March (-36,000) and April (-39,000). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Combine a weak monthly gain of +75,000 with a combined revision of -75,000 and you get...not very much, although at least this did mark a record 104 consecutive months of gains. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 3-month average gain is now just above +150,000, having been above +200,000 for much of 2018 and 2019. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oCxVjG5jgE4/XPrPZcmCKyI/AAAAAAAAwZo/XIaPMHwveNQBQXCQcFF_y92gxVmx3g-7QCLcBGAs/s640/NFP1.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1389"></div>
 The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 per cent. <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VV6mk5t6S2Q/XPrPZQdLQBI/AAAAAAAAwZs/3T9WL5W_p5MDtBBnLiuydEN132e6RBW4QCLcBGAs/s640/NFP2.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1390"></div>
 But annual average hourly earnings growth slowed to +3.1 per cent. <div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6K-7SN1xz_A/XPrPZfVYmjI/AAAAAAAAwZw/6CDgCikRDroi5irW2jUAMrfmfWIjNo5_ACLcBGAs/s640/NFP3.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1385"></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A couple of Antipodean observations.</div>
<div>
 Firstly, hard though it is to imagine, markets are pricing a 4 in 5 chance of the Fed cutting interest rates as soon as July(!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And secondly, looking at unemployment rates from Japan to Germany, Netherlands, the US, UK, Taiwan, and South Korea - all 4 per cent or considerably lower in many cases - it's not hard to imagine that Australia's NAIRU could be much lower than previously assumed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For that reason and others, markets are now pricing in two further rate cuts in Australia over the next 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I was travelling yesterday and didn't get around to posting the pre-election housing finance figures, which showed a small uptick for homebuyers and a decline for investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Speaking with a few mortgage brokers yesterday, there has been a surge of enquiries since the election, and especially now interest rate cuts are being passed on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Importantly, while banks were previously taking up to a couple of months to return documentation, not the figure is back down to about a week, so things are 'back to normal' in that regard. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </div>
</div>
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Rate hiking cycle crashes and burns: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Adelaide is challenging Canberra as the most consistent market in capital city Australia. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices – and continues to be our most under-rated market.
You’d never know any of this, as real estate consumers, because of the way mainstream media reports real estate – a focus on median price data to the exclusion of all other market barometers, sweeping generalisations which often discuss Australia as a single market, an obsession with Sydney and Melbourne as the only markets of importance, an annoying tendency to zero in on negatives, and a host of other problems.
Media seldom bothers to discuss Adelaide and when it gets the occasional brief mention it’s usually a generalised “Adelaide prices grew only 1% in the past year” or “the median house price for Adelaide fell 0.3% in the latest quarter”.
This tells us nothing of value – and disguises the multiplicity of scenarios playing out in the markets of the South Australia capital city.
So, for something with a little more depth, that tells you something that actually has value, consider the following:
In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand. 
Seven out of ten Adelaide suburbs have experienced growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, many of them with rises above 5%. 
The list of suburbs with growth above 15% is dominated by top-end locations, a positive sign for the market overall, which we believe is poised for a significant growth phase.
Hotspotting’s Winter survey has identified 64 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales momentum, the second highest quarterly result for the city since we started the surveys. Over the past couple of years, the number of growth suburbs has been 45, 58, 61, 71, 60, 62 and 64.
Adelaide continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as well as the recovering Perth market, in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where many of the strong growth markets are found at present).
There are 10 Local Government Areas across the Adelaide metropolitan area with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.
The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout – one that ranks nationally. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill and Seacombe Gardens.
The Charles Sturt LGA, which extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beach areas, is close behind with eight rising suburbs. They include inner-city Brompton (where quarterly sales have been 23, 32, 38 and 50) as well as middle-market suburbs like Findon, Seaton, Flinders Park (quarterly sales 22, 25, 25, 32, 35 and 38), Woodville South and Fulham Gardens. Henley Beach and West Beach also have growth momentum.
Port Adelaide Enfield continues to be a leading precinct, with seven growth suburbs including Croydon Park, Dernancourt, Greenacres, North Haven, Rosewater and Royal Park.
Onkaparinga, which always features in our Adelaide analysis, also has seven suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (where quarterly sales have been 54, 63, 67 and 70), Christies Beach, Hackham, Happy Valley, Old Reynella and Seaford.
Six municipalities have between three and five rising markets each: the Burnside, Holdfast Bay, Mitcham, Salisbury, Unley and West Torrens LGAs.
While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research often report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 70% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago - and almost half of those have grown by more than 5%.
Of the 189 Adelaide suburban markets analysed, 54 have grown 5% or more and 64 have increased by less than 5%. There are only 17 suburbs in the Adelaide metropolitan area where median house prices have fallen by more than 5%.
Many of the suburbs with the highest annual growth are towards the upper end of the Adelaide market, headed by North Adelaide (up 29% to $1,075,000), Somerton Park (up 27% to $955,000), Unley (up 14% to $990,000) and Henley Beach South (up 15% to $985,000). Aldgate and Beulah Park, with median house prices in the $800,000s, have both risen 15-16% in the past 12 months.
But there is strong growth also in other price ranges, including Mansfield Park (up 20% to $405,000), Elizabeth North (up 18% to $180,000), Underdale (up 16% to $665,000) and Broadview (up 15% to $570,000).
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Adelaide challenging Canberra as Australia's most consistent property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This week I’m speaking at a seminar for real estate consumers in Canberra to talk about opportunities in the national capital.
I’ve just completed a suburb-by-suburb analysis on Canberra for the Price Predictor Index and have found that this market is strengthening. 
I’ve examined price data since the start of this century and I note that while Canberra is only a short distance from Sydney, usually its property market is doing something quite different to Sydney’s.
Canberra didn’t follow Sydney into a major property boom and now that Sydney is falling, Canberra is steadily on the rise. This, my research tells me, is situation normal.
Right now, Canberra has more growth markets than at any time since Hotspotting began its quarterly location-by-location surveys four years ago. The norm now in Canberra is suburbs where median prices have grown by more than 5% in the past 12 months, while only a handful have falling prices.
In this latest survey, I’ve have identified 26 suburbs where demand is rising, as well as 37 others where demand is steady and consistent. Unlike Sydney, the Canberra market has no suburbs classified as declining markets or as danger markets.
It is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation. Indeed, I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report, which means that as an economy it ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks first in several areas, including dwelling construction and housing finance. 
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks first in the nation on population (jointly with Victoria), rising 2.2% in FY2018. Vacancies are around 0.9% (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising faster than anywhere else and there is evidence of solid price growth. Many suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and others have grown 7-8-9%.
Some of the recent forecasts from credible analysts suggest Canberra will lead the capital cities on property price growth. Moody’s Analytics, for example, is predicting solid price growth for Canberra this year and in 2020, both for houses and for apartments.
The results of our Autumn 2019 survey support that optimism. Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north – to the point where there is now a record number of suburbs with rising sales activity.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis has identified 31 suburbs where median prices have risen by at least 5% in the past 12 months, and 22 others where prices are growing but by less than 5%. But there are only six suburbs where median prices have fallen by more than 5%.
There are 13 suburbs which have recorded double-digit growth in their median prices and these market leaders are spread across the Canberra metro area. 
But the Inner North precinct is the market leader on price growth. The median house price for Ainslie is up 34%, the median unit price for Watson has risen 30%, the unit median for Dickson is up 21%, while the median house price for O’Connor is up 20%.
The upper end of the Canberra market is going well. Markets with double-digit price growth in the past 12 months include Ainslie (up 34%), Dickson (up 10%), Garran (up 13%), Lyons (up 10%) and O’Connor (up 20%) – all suburbs with median house prices above $850,000. Suburbs in that market with price rises between 5% and 10% include Curtin, Deakin, Hughes, Narrabunda and Nicholls. 
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs, with Belconnen the leading district with six growth suburbs, followed closely by nearby Gungahlin which has five suburbs with rising demand.
 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Canberra the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate is buzzing with questions about the so-called recovery in property markets. Is it real? Does it have legs? Is it a dead cat bounce?
Before providing answers, we need to understand the questions, some of which show a chronic lack of understanding about real estate markets.
The questions assume that what’s happening in Sydney and Melbourne reflects the nation. It doesn’t.
Generalisation is the blight of real estate consumers. We’re afflicted with writers and commentators who discuss Australia as a single market, quoting economists whose knowledge of the intricacies of residential real estate could be written on the back of a postage stamp in crayon.
The overriding assumption is that events in the two biggest cities describe the entire nation. If they’re booming, the “Australian property market” is booming. If Sydney and Melbourne prices are falling, then prices are falling across the nation.
Journalists who parrot this nonsense - in the process of re-cycling press releases from lazy research firms and ignorant economists – are treating their customers shabbily. Misinformation proliferates.
So, are property prices recovering in Hobart? Well no, they’re not, because they didn’t fall. Hobart prices remain comfortably higher than last year, having been rising for the past three years.
Are property prices recovering in Canberra? Also no, because Canberra didn’t have the Sydney boom and it didn’t suffer Sydney’s post-boom correction. It’s just been chugging along happily, as Canberra tends to do. It’s the perennial Goldilocks of Australian real estate – not too hot, not too cold, just right.
Price recovery is also a foreign concept in Regional Victoria because prices have been rising strongly in many towns and cities outside of Melbourne for the past two years, and continue to do. Dozens the regional centres across Victoria have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past year.
So when media talks about the possibility of recovery in Australian house prices, people who live in Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham, Warragul, Bright, Mildura, Wangaratta, Seymour, Moe, Kyneton and many other Victorian centres wonder what on earth they mean.
There are similar scenarios is many regional locations across New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland.
When media discusses recovery in real estate prices, they’re essentially referring to Sydney and Melbourne, which dominate coverage in big media, to the exclusion of all other locations.
That’s where the question of market recovery and the realness of price increases is focused.
What we’re witnessing is an end to the post-boom downturn and price correction in Sydney and Melbourne. The evidence is strong and real. Looking across price data from multiple sources, we first saw an easing of the rate of decline, then a bottoming of the downturn - and then, increasingly, signs of a return to growth.
This was accompanied by an improvement in auction clearance rates – which, as I commented last week, are a rather blunt instrument by which to measure markets but, taken alongside other data, can add some weight to overall conclusions.
Often anecdotal evidence is more telling than the statistics, and this also is increasingly positive. All kinds of property professionals have been feeling the upturn in demand and the growing pressure on prices, in an environment where stock on the market is generally low.
None of this is terribly surprising. The perfect storm of negatives that impacted the big city markets in the first half of the year has blown over – and has been replaced by a series of fortunate events, starting with the Federal Election result.
Too much has been made (as usual) of the impact of interest rate reductions. These don’t hurt, but interest rate levels are never the prime motivator of events in real estate.
Far more important are the improvement in overall sentiment, the end of the fear created by Labor policies, the greater ease in obtaining finance and the state of economies at a local level.
So what we have in Sydney and Melbourne is a fairly normal post-boom market. The correction phase that usually happens after a prolonged up-cycle has happened and now we’re back into situation normal – healthy activity and some pressure on prices, but with little likelihood of a return to boom conditions.
We’re more likely to see booms in other places – Brisbane, where conditions are improving and prices are attractive; Adelaide, which has an emerging economy likely to underpin an upsurge in real estate demand, helped by great value-for-money real estate; Perth, which is fighting back after a long downturn in the underlying WA economy; and many parts of regional Australia, such as regional Queensland, where a growing number of regional centres have improving economies, lower vacancies and attractive price/yield scenarios.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a> twitter.com/hotspotting
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