<p>Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.</p>

<p>For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.</p>

<p>Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.</p>

<p>"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]</p>

<p>Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.</p>

<p>Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]</p>

<p>Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.</p>

<p>"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."</p>

<p>The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.</p>

<p>"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]</p>

<p>Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.</p>

<p>Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]</p>


Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

<p>Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.</p>

<p>The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.</p>

<p>The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.</p>

<p>The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]</p>

<p>The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.</p>

<p>"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.</p>

<p>"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.</p>

<p>"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]</p>

<p>The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.</p>

<p>EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.</p>

<p>WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.</p>

<p>"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."</p>

<p>Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]</p>


Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

<p>When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.</p>

<p>But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.</p>

<p>As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.</p>

<p>For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.</p>

<p>If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.</p>

<p>That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.</p>

<p>It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.</p>

<p>As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.</p>

<p>Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.</p>

<p>For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.</p>

<p>A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.</p>


The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.</p>

<p>Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.</p>

<p>A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" /></p>

<p>"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.</p>

<p>"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."</p>

<p>The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" /></p>

<p>Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.</p>

<p>The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.</p>

<p>"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."</p>

<p>"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."</p>

<p>Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.</p>

<p>HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.</p>


HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

<p>Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.</p>

<p>But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.</p>

<p>Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.</p>

<p>In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.</p>

<p>That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.</p>

<p>The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.</p>

<p>Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.</p>

<p>Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.</p>

<p>Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.</p>

<p>"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.</p>

<p>"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.</p>

<p>"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."</p>

<p>Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.</p>

<p>"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.</p>

<p>"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.</p>

<p>"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."</p>

<p>For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.</p>

<p>Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?</p>

<p>As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.</p>


What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER </p>
<div>GDP growth was estimated at a seasonally adjusted -0.3 per cent for Q1, leading to the inevitably mind-numbing 'recession we had to have' headlines.<br><br>Over the year GDP growth slowed to +1.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Q1 could yet be revised up, of course - especially the very significant negative drag from inventories - and therefore the technical definition of a recession may yet be avoided. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, given that GDP growth in Q2 will clearly be severely negative this is largely semantics.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pt_Gww_Reuc/XtgnFuMgFeI/AAAAAAAA2HQ/vLAGeFkHn3M9QOwI61ZNNpoOjf5yT5T5ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1381"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>Nominal GDP growth over the year is floundering again.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZfLhyXG8ULc/XtgnF37tlzI/AAAAAAAA2HU/Mx852eP3OhEMtJBOxcGwPqRhzAM8SiTUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1401"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>Real net national disposable income, as a proxy for living standards, has been fairly flat over the past six months. </div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NKWTgSUhZQs/XtgnF3i7aWI/AAAAAAAA2HY/CLQfAtv0DaM99MRoKMCyFkKHUTr-cnZfgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1394"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>And the terms of trade have held up well to date, well above the long-run average.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HXTaXlH0wVI/XtgnGmiASCI/AAAAAAAA2Hg/GtnNP1jk36kKzW5yBz4CndeKKYu-AX0eQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1348"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>Meanwhile, the interest payable on dwellings continues to fall, now down to the lowest level since 2009 despite the dramatic increase in the dwelling stock over that time.</div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MgkJhBkDCVg/XtgnGUlHiqI/AAAAAAAA2Hc/AKW1kQicX989EsVNqJ18tMPoeYSvBpyeQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1364"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stimulus mixed</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>With the Reserve Bank fading quietly into the background, the government must now do the heavy lifting with its fiscal stimulus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie dollar has accordingly soared back towards US 70 cents, in turn slowing the adjustment process. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The terms of the $688 million renovation stimulus missed the mark completely, leaving such a skinny cohort of prospective qualifying applicants that the government needn't have bothered with it. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially you must own a house and undertake an expensive renovation within the next few months, but without having a high income (while a whole heap of renovation options are excluded): </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F-4fNLv_G3U/XtgoiKsKFjI/AAAAAAAA2H4/wHgQFtbv05Ixdzimj9Xru2Jnvr8LUCxXQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/rebo.jpg" width="640" height="606" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="762"></div>
<div>
<br>Perhaps some retirees might qualify for a grant, and maybe a few young homeowners with wealthy parents.<br><br>
</div>
<div>The terms of the HomeBuilder grant scheme for <em>new</em> homes are far better targeted, and will undoubtedly be a net positive for the industry. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

GDP headed down, recession all but locked in: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>All capital cities recorded a rise in residential prices in the March 2020 quarter, led by Sydney (+1.9 per cent) and Melbourne (+2.1 per cent). </p>
<p>The two largest cities both recorded gains of more than +10 per cent over the year, taking the weighted average capital city price +7.4 per cent higher over the year to March.</p>
<p>Most of the COVID restrictions were rolled out in March, so there was little impact on the price charts by capital city. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Sydney houses and attached dwellings both recorded quarterly gains.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The mean dwelling price rose to a record high at an estimated $690,200.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The number of dwellings was an estimated 10,485,700.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The value of Australia's dwelling stock hit a record high, with a preliminary estimate of $7.23 trillion.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The ratio of dwelling stock to GDP increased to 3.79x, but was still just below 2017 levels.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/17/PW7.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>This is a high figure in global terms, but plenty lower than, say, Hong Kong.</p>
<p><em><strong>Pete Wargent</strong> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger<strong style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </strong></em></p>
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Average capital city dwelling prices hit record high: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Personal insolvencies hit their lowest level since 1990 in the December 2019 quarter, and were again some -16.5 per cent lower year-on-year in the March 2020 quarter.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sxieSq_ZTC4/Xun2fAevMFI/AAAAAAAA2ZI/Ml-BL6k_1nM57rxesOG0ZtKB6hj74PUMACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1379"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>This is all the more remarkable when you consider the stats on a per capita rolling annual basis, where they appeared to be racing towards zero in the March quarter.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bxLLz7PwC1Y/Xun3Bey1VFI/AAAAAAAA2ZU/r2Y9lNeAZCAVu2SZELwfoUeIhvH7Va3JQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1366"></p>
<p>Part IV and XI bankruptices were also some 16 per cent lower year-on-year.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2itXxsBidoQ/Xun2fN0rv6I/AAAAAAAA2ZE/wNgH8--8tKoMG-qaG4ABsusYNNmGT-yWwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1348"></p>
<p>ASIC's insolvency figures all showed a sharp drop in insolvencies in April, presumably partly related to the government's stimulus measures.</p>
<p>Construction insolvencies also fell to a series low in the March 2020 quarter, thanks to low interest rates perhaps.</p>
<p> <img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HqPTq923vAY/Xun4AUD8h8I/AAAAAAAA2Zg/up6jQvL6pAAklQRSWSF8KXd5QO1uUOAQQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ASIC.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1353"></p>
<p>Let's see what September brings, and whether or not there is a financial 'cliff' (not if the government is smart about things).</p>
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Personal insolvencies remain at their lowest levels in 30 years: Pete Wargent

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<p>Auction volumes were down week on week across the combined capital cities, with a total of 1,185 homes scheduled for auction. The lower activity which we have historically noted over school holiday periods, returned a preliminary clearance rate of 65.1%. </p>
<p>Across Australia’s two largest auction markets, the lower activity across both cities saw the clearance rate improve.</p>
<p>There were 439 Melbourne homes taken to auction returning a preliminary clearance rate of 64.3%, which was higher than last week’s preliminary figure of 62.7% across 645 auctions, with a final result of 61%.</p>
<p>In Sydney, 563 homes were auctioned this week returning a preliminary clearance rate of 68.1%, higher than last week’s 66.9% preliminary result, when a higher number of auctions were held (644). The final clearance rate last week came in at 62.9%.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/6/CL%20JULY%207%20CC.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the past 12 months across the capital city markets every city has seen a decrease in total listings with Melbourne faring the best and Perth as well as Canberra being hit the hardest.</p>
<p>Across new listings however, both Melbourne and Sydney have seen large increases around 20% with the only other market seeing an increase being Perth.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

New listings soar across Melbourne and Sydney: CoreLogic

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<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>EXPERT OBSERVER</strong></p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">There was an explosion in refinancing in May 2020, taking total lending to owner-occupiers up to record monthly highs.</p>
<div>This will effectively act as a rate cut (or perhaps two) for many of these borrowers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But once you strip out the massive surge of 21,227 refinancing approvals there was the expected decline in housing lending, as the economy was largely shut back in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yWq-irN9dW0/XwbTJxh4-SI/AAAAAAAA20s/5dEKYeBiYAgbWo7vhdZcP-KzysZKDHokwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1446"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>Activity was down pretty much everywhere, as you might reasonably expect.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dGoRTZ8staY/XwbTJ8qea9I/AAAAAAAA20w/f4NDiVpfoE4QlUGiRzmzm2MhLLTSl_npACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1393"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>First homebuyer transactions were...down.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sGhJPexKkIg/XwbTKB_5ehI/AAAAAAAA200/vZgfMriJ0Aciy7SKOXutbhW7eH4fxaygQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1403"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>And the average mortgage size also declined, although borrowing capacity for many borrowers has increased compared to 18 months ago thanks to the salvo of five interest rate cuts, and the average mortgage size was up by some +18 per cent from a year earlier. </div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-virz7qued7w/XwbTzoWDEcI/AAAAAAAA21M/Fs00WsrcCiwdHa0UsefJ8nR8AzWaC6UIQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1404"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div>In particular borrowers in Sydney and Melbourne have been flexing their extra borrowing capacity over the past year or so. </div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-c8KGGT5iocg/XwbTKzyZ5II/AAAAAAAA204/bNjn9_sgL1cNudx8sExOjl3EqZlQY2C_QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1421"></div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><br><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>The wrap</strong></span><br><br></p>
<div>Overall, once you strip out the huge rip in refinancing there was much less housing lending and transactional activity in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing prices have drifted a little lower since rolling over around the end of Q1 2020, but on much thinner volumes, and stock levels have fallen very sharply which has somewhat underpinned prices.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Naturally the Victorian government now opting for a fresh <em>six-week</em> lockdown is going to lead another wave of local business closures over July and August, which will bring its own downside risks for Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney, on the other hand, is now steadily reopening for business, and most other housing markets have been fairly flat through the COVID shutdown.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course the lending figures are, as always, old news, reflective of historic activity from the end of April to the end of May.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More timely indicators from the REA Group appear to be relatively upbeat.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>Pete Wargent</strong> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger<strong> </strong>
</div>
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Refinancing explodes to record high: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>In brighter news, there's been no COVID-19 community transmission to speak of in Australia this week...ex-Victoria. </p>
<p>Unfortunately the Victorian government's shocking mismanagement of hotel quarantine means that there's now a potentially nasty second wave of the virus spreading exclusively in that state. </p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xOh3b4Tga-M/Xwn9wtOrb4I/AAAAAAAA25w/iEmfMiNIxQgg1LywLx57S7j_pky0hB5IQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV2.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1424"></p>
<p>With another couple of hundred cases over the past 24 hours Victoria now has 1,124 active cases.  </p>
<p>Elsewhere local cases have essentially been running at zero all week, which is a great result. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eynQCsE-Zi4/Xwn9-8_aB4I/AAAAAAAA254/rYXy5NxU5lc1mZ-OaFR1YfceGXg9UYhsgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1409"></p>
<p>Victoria will now go into another lockdown, this time for at least six weeks, which is a disastrous hammer blow for the local economy. </p>
<p><strong>Auctions slump</strong></p>
<p>Sydney recorded rock solid auction results on Saturday, with the median price of property sold under the hammer rising to $1,260,000. </p>
<p>In Melbourne. however, auction success volumes and results have unsurprisingly begun to plummet as consumer confidence has been demolished by the lockdown announcement.<br><br>Alas it's now only a matter of time before someone rolls out another 'tale of two cities headline'...sigh.</p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bS9hrg3w0aM/Xwn-fG6nTCI/AAAAAAAA26I/K1-zMVsC9cE0307sg6isljwJ2gh9q--YACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AUc.jpg" width="640" height="132" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="681"></p>
<p><span>To date Melbourne's housing prices have fallen by about 3 per cent since April.</span></p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kOYG-7W4zJU/Xwn_kvtbqkI/AAAAAAAA26U/sEObUN7SdaYsMamI1aEtXuej2Lsf2vfMgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV3.jpg" width="640" height="354" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1447"></p>
<p><strong>Look out below</strong></p>
<p>I'm not usually in the business of making serious predictions, which are usually broad brush and often prove to be pointless.</p>
<p>But these sorts of auction results in Melbourne have normally been commensurate with something close to double digit pace declines in housing prices, and in all likelihood may point to a 10 to 20 per cent decline in Melbourne's market.<br><br>Given that Greater Melbourne is Australia's second largest economic hub - and that it's long been accounting for such a significant share of growth - the decision to lock down for six weeks has all but cruelled the chance of a meaningful recovery any time soon. </p>
<p>Research across half a century of historical data from the Bank of England has shown that falling house prices lead to fear of negative equity, falling confidence, and consumers declining to spend, borrow, or invest.</p>
<p> If the Federal government wants to stand any chance of getting the Australian economy back on its feet this year the Treasurer should announce on July 23 a temporary stamp duty holiday for the remainder of 2020 (and fund the difference for the states by making use of bond yields at record lows).</p>
<p>Alternatively, and more sustainably, broaden the GST and raise the rate to 12.5 per cent. </p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Melbourne lockdown kills chance for a meaningful property recovery: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION </p>
<p>Millennials are less likely to own a home than previous generations were at the same age.<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sold-home-sale-real-estate-sign-168053771?src=MyyBDZW8tOfFl2Au5es9xg-1-2"><br></a></span></p>
<p>It used to be that everyone wanted to buy a home, seeking pleasure and security, as well as the potential for future wealth.</p>
<p>But younger Americans are buying homes far less often than their elders’ generations did, and that puts a large sector of the U.S. economy at risk.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/96221/homeownership_and_the_american_dream_0.pdf" target="_blank">Millennial home ownership levels</a> are dramatically lower than the those of previous generations at a similar age. In 1985, 45.5% of 25- to 34-year-olds owned homes in the U.S. By 2015, this had fallen about 25%.</p>
<p>Since the housing industry currently accounts for <a href="https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/housings-economic-impact/housings-contribution-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp.aspx" target="_blank">15% to 18% of the nation’s gross domestic product</a>, any change in established behaviour could have substantial consequences on the larger economy.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rBUYZnsAAAAJ&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">Researchers like me</a> who are interested in the future of the U.S. economy are faced with some difficult questions about how millennials’ behaviour is changing the housing market.</p>
<p>My recent research suggests that both increases and decreases in home prices can be directly tied to where millennials choose to live. If a long-term behavioural change is afoot, and this generation continues not to buy homes, it will very directly impact GDP.</p>
<p><strong>Homeownership</strong></p>
<p>Research has shown that younger generations <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2018/accounting-age-financial-health-millennials" target="_blank">lag behind</a> previous generations in terms of milestones like homeownership and marriage.</p>
<p>One of the assets that set previous generations apart is home equity. In 2001, Gen-Xers held an average of US$130,000 in assets, compared to millennials in 2016 that held almost 31% less.</p>
<p>However, assets attributed to home equity are subject to the whims of the housing market. Just ask anyone <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story" target="_blank">still underwater</a> on a home purchased before the financial crisis.</p>
<p>And home equity isn’t just vulnerable to large-scale economic upheavals. In fact, it’s constantly fluctuating.</p>
<p><strong>Age and cost</strong></p>
<p>I analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau and American Community Survey from about 800 of the most populous counties in the U.S., or about 85% of the population, in a study that has not yet been published. The data show a rather disconcerting trend.</p>
<p>If no one ever moved from one county to another, almost all counties would gradually grow older in terms of average age.</p>
<p>However, the migration of primarily younger individuals has caused an escalation in this ageing shift. Some areas are ageing much more quickly than expected. In those areas, home prices have been vulnerable to long-term declines.</p>
<p>In other words, the trend of rising or falling home values follows patterns of migration in the U.S.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Omibc/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>From 2010 to 2016, counties with ageing populations were about 50% more likely to have experienced a decline in home values than those counties that were becoming “younger.” Not surprisingly, counties that were becoming younger were often experiencing increases in both populations and in the prices of homes.</p>
<p>Two areas that provide an illustration of this are key to the oil and gas industry: the Midland-Odessa area of Texas and Ward County, North Dakota. Both areas have experienced not only a net decrease in the age of residents, but also a net increase in population.</p>
<p>This is far from a rural phenomenon. In Allegheny County, the Pennsylvania county that’s home to Pittsburgh, a similar increase in population has also decreased the average age of its residents.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lGbVg/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p><strong>The cost of a home</strong></p>
<p>Millennials’ migration to particular counties has fuelled <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse/the-marketpulse-vol-8-issue-4-april-2019-screen-041719.pdf" target="_blank">speculative real estate transactions</a>.</p>
<p>In 2018, such transactions are reaching levels just below the pre-crisis highs, accounting for almost 11% of all homes sold last year. The prices are inflated by buyers looking to “flip” houses. This forces younger buyers to compete with the professionals, pushing them out of the markets they are migrating to.</p>
<p>Younger buyers are further frustrated by the cost of what economists refer to as frictions. Frictions include <a href="https://www.realtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/RT_0618News.pdf" target="_blank">commissions that average 5% to 6%</a> of the purchase price, myriad inspection and appraisal fees, as well as mortgage and title insurance. All of this runs counter to the transparency and ease of access many millennials have become used to in the modern world.</p>
<p>Since the younger generation is <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/96221/homeownership_and_the_american_dream_0.pdf" target="_blank">better educated</a>, one might expect significant wage increases to counter some of these frictions. But recent graduates between the ages of 22 and 27 <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/college-labor-market_wages" target="_blank">earn about 2% less</a> than their predecessors did in 1990.</p>
<p>If <a href="https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted" target="_blank">home prices</a> had also stayed relatively flat, this likely wouldn’t be an issue. However, from 2000 to the present, average home prices have increased by about 3.8% annually, though this varies dramatically from county to county.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3A5rK/2/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>As urban areas continue to attract more new residents, many young people may need to reassess the true value that home ownership offers. Meanwhile, older generations are likely just becoming aware of the impact of millennial migration on the American dream. If you live in an area that is ageing faster than the natural rate, the probability of your home value decreasing is very real.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115830/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"><em></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Jimmie Lenz</strong>, Clinical Assistant Professor of Finance, University of South Carolina</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-millennials-are-affecting-the-price-of-your-home-115830" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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How millennials are affecting the price of your home: Jimmie Lenz

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div id="post-body-8300417078442297736" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>One of the most important releases of the global calendar, the US nonfarm payrolls, confirmed things are turning back down in the face of slower growth and trade war concerns. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Earlier in the week there had been a similarly weak indicator from a private payrolls report.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nonfarm payroll employment increased by just +75,000 in May 2019 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and critically there were also substantial downwards revisions to March (-36,000) and April (-39,000). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Combine a weak monthly gain of +75,000 with a combined revision of -75,000 and you get...not very much, although at least this did mark a record 104 consecutive months of gains. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 3-month average gain is now just above +150,000, having been above +200,000 for much of 2018 and 2019. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oCxVjG5jgE4/XPrPZcmCKyI/AAAAAAAAwZo/XIaPMHwveNQBQXCQcFF_y92gxVmx3g-7QCLcBGAs/s640/NFP1.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1389"></div>
<br>The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 per cent.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VV6mk5t6S2Q/XPrPZQdLQBI/AAAAAAAAwZs/3T9WL5W_p5MDtBBnLiuydEN132e6RBW4QCLcBGAs/s640/NFP2.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1390"></div>
<br>But annual average hourly earnings growth slowed to +3.1 per cent.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6K-7SN1xz_A/XPrPZfVYmjI/AAAAAAAAwZw/6CDgCikRDroi5irW2jUAMrfmfWIjNo5_ACLcBGAs/s640/NFP3.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1385"></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A couple of Antipodean observations.</div>
<div>
<br>Firstly, hard though it is to imagine, markets are pricing a 4 in 5 chance of the Fed cutting interest rates as soon as July(!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And secondly, looking at unemployment rates from Japan to Germany, Netherlands, the US, UK, Taiwan, and South Korea - all 4 per cent or considerably lower in many cases - it's not hard to imagine that Australia's NAIRU could be much lower than previously assumed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For that reason and others, markets are now pricing in two further rate cuts in Australia over the next 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I was travelling yesterday and didn't get around to posting the pre-election housing finance figures, which showed a small uptick for homebuyers and a decline for investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Speaking with a few mortgage brokers yesterday, there has been a surge of enquiries since the election, and especially now interest rate cuts are being passed on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Importantly, while banks were previously taking up to a couple of months to return documentation, not the figure is back down to about a week, so things are 'back to normal' in that regard. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
</div>
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Rate hiking cycle crashes and burns: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Adelaide is challenging Canberra as the most consistent market in capital city Australia. It keeps delivering good sales activity and above-average results on house prices – and continues to be our most under-rated market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">You’d never know any of this, as real estate consumers, because of the way mainstream media reports real estate – a focus on median price data to the exclusion of all other market barometers, sweeping generalisations which often discuss Australia as a single market, an obsession with Sydney and Melbourne as the only markets of importance, an annoying tendency to zero in on negatives, and a host of other problems.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Media seldom bothers to discuss Adelaide and when it gets the occasional brief mention it’s usually a generalised “Adelaide prices grew only 1% in the past year” or “the median house price for Adelaide fell 0.3% in the latest quarter”.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This tells us nothing of value – and disguises the multiplicity of scenarios playing out in the markets of the South Australia capital city.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, for something with a little more depth, that tells you something that actually has value, consider the following:</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the five years Hotspotting has been conducting quarterly surveys of sales activity and price trends, Adelaide has never delivered a poor result. Most cities have had peaks and troughs in that time, but Adelaide just keeps on producing steady markets with consistent demand.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Seven out of ten Adelaide suburbs have experienced growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months, many of them with rises above 5%.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The list of suburbs with growth above 15% is dominated by top-end locations, a positive sign for the market overall, which we believe is poised for a significant growth phase.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Hotspotting’s Winter survey has identified 64 Adelaide suburbs with rising sales momentum, the second highest quarterly result for the city since we started the surveys. Over the past couple of years, the number of growth suburbs has been 45, 58, 61, 71, 60, 62 and 64.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">Adelaide continues to rank well ahead of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as well as the recovering Perth market, in terms of the number of growth suburbs – and ahead of most state regional jurisdictions (where many of the strong growth markets are found at present).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There are 10 Local Government Areas across the Adelaide metropolitan area with three or more suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">The Marion LGA, a middle-market area in the south-west of Adelaide which has been a market leader for the past 18 months, is once again a standout – one that ranks nationally. It has nine suburbs with rising sales patterns, including Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Glengowrie, Hallett Cove, Marion, O’Halloran Hill and Seacombe Gardens.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">The Charles Sturt LGA, which extends north-west from central Adelaide out to the beach areas, is close behind with eight rising suburbs. They include inner-city Brompton (where quarterly sales have been 23, 32, 38 and 50) as well as middle-market suburbs like Findon, Seaton, Flinders Park (quarterly sales 22, 25, 25, 32, 35 and 38), Woodville South and Fulham Gardens. Henley Beach and West Beach also have growth momentum.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Port Adelaide Enfield continues to be a leading precinct, with seven growth suburbs including Croydon Park, Dernancourt, Greenacres, North Haven, Rosewater and Royal Park.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Onkaparinga, which always features in our Adelaide analysis, also has seven suburbs with growth momentum – including Aldinga Beach (where quarterly sales have been 54, 63, 67 and 70), Christies Beach, Hackham, Happy Valley, Old Reynella and Seaford.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Six municipalities have between three and five rising markets each: the Burnside, Holdfast Bay, Mitcham, Salisbury, Unley and West Torrens LGAs.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">While sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research often report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis shows that 70% of Adelaide suburbs have median house prices higher than a year ago - and almost half of those have grown by more than 5%.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Of the 189 Adelaide suburban markets analysed, 54 have grown 5% or more and 64 have increased by less than 5%. There are only 17 suburbs in the Adelaide metropolitan area where median house prices have fallen by more than 5%.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Many of the suburbs with the highest annual growth are towards the upper end of the Adelaide market, headed by North Adelaide (up 29% to $1,075,000), Somerton Park (up 27% to $955,000), Unley (up 14% to $990,000) and Henley Beach South (up 15% to $985,000). Aldgate and Beulah Park, with median house prices in the $800,000s, have both risen 15-16% in the past 12 months.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">But there is strong growth also in other price ranges, including Mansfield Park (up 20% to $405,000), Elizabeth North (up 18% to $180,000), Underdale (up 16% to $665,000) and Broadview (up 15% to $570,000).</span></p>
<p class="p4"> </p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s2">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p6"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p7"><span class="s2"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"> </p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Adelaide challenging Canberra as Australia's most consistent property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Deposit scheme scramble</span></strong></div>
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<div>As REA Group, correctly anticipated, first homebuyer numbers are getting set to rip higher.</div>
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<div>The Australian reports today that well over 4,000 of the 10,000 places made available for the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS) effective 1 July have been reserved in less than four weeks. </div>
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<div>The federal government is therefore considering extending the scheme reports the article:</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UbzA0cR-6WA/XyH56IexfKI/AAAAAAAA3Vg/y_Vif17MErcybRF0__rd7_cOqJ9loQLIQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/FHLDS.jpg" width="640" height="78" data-original-height="96" data-original-width="772"></div>
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<div>The FHLDS potentially allows thousands of first homebuyers to buy using only a 5 per cent deposit. </div>
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<div>With all of the other grants and stamp duty exemptions being thrown in around the country, it's no surprise that first homebuyers are taking advantage of the lowest mortgage rates in history to take the plunge. </div>
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<div>New houses have been particularly popular for FHLDS applicants...more so than apartments and townhomes.  </div>
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<div>First homebuyer numbers had slowed in May, but now look set to retake decade highs.</div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mHjeF2-0gtA/XyH7HN-IHAI/AAAAAAAA3Vw/Uk-KbiqlBWAXNtHT-v34rIm4ut-ZxGaqACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/FHB.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1422"></div>
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<div>Meanwhile the New South Wales government looks set to have another crack at Build to Rent by offering land tax discounts.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's an overrated and misunderstood concept which rarely seems to work well.</div>
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