<p>Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.</p>

<p>For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.</p>

<p>Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.</p>

<p>"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]</p>

<p>Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.</p>

<p>Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]</p>

<p>Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.</p>

<p>"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."</p>

<p>The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.</p>

<p>"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]</p>

<p>Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.</p>

<p>Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]</p>


Joel Robinson

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

<p>Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.</p>

<p>The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.</p>

<p>The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.</p>

<p>The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]</p>

<p>The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.</p>

<p>"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.</p>

<p>"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.</p>

<p>"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]</p>

<p>The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.</p>

<p>EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.</p>

<p>WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.</p>

<p>"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."</p>

<p>Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]</p>


Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

<p>When buying an apartment, most people compare the big-ticket items first. Floorplans. Kitchens. Balcony size. Natural light. The view.</p>

<p>But there's one everyday consideration that often doesn't come up until after moving in: how parcels are delivered.</p>

<p>As online shopping has become part of everyday life, parcel deliveries have shifted from an occasional event to a regular occurrence. Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally.</p>

<p>For apartment residents, that can present a challenge.</p>

<p>If nobody is home to accept a delivery, parcels may be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in a building lobby or common area, or require building management to step in. In higher-density buildings, where dozens or even hundreds of residents may receive deliveries each day, parcel management has become an increasingly important part of everyday living.</p>

<p>That can create a range of frustrations. A missed delivery often means making time to collect a parcel elsewhere, while packages left unattended in foyers or mail areas can create clutter and increase the risk of theft. What seems like a minor inconvenience can quickly become a recurring issue for residents who shop online regularly.</p>

<p>It's one of those details that rarely features in a display suite but can have a noticeable impact once residents move in.</p>

<p>As a result, buyers are beginning to look beyond traditional apartment features and consider how a building supports day-to-day convenience, including whether there are secure options for receiving deliveries.</p>

<p>Australia Post's Parcel Lockers provide one solution.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CkF2oKmlACg?si=C50sDaoUUn2nuLmq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>Rather than having a parcel delivered directly to an apartment, eligible deliveries can be sent to a nominated Parcel Locker. Once the parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can collect it using a QR code or one-time PIN at a time that suits them.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker network now includes more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with installations at Post Offices, shopping centres, transport hubs and an increasing number of residential developments. By providing a secure collection point, Parcel Lockers help reduce missed deliveries and avoid parcels being left unattended in common areas.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel infrastructure is becoming another way to improve the resident experience. Rather than relying on concierge staff or leaving parcels in communal spaces, secure collection points help streamline deliveries while preserving the presentation and functionality of shared areas.</p>

<p>For buyers, it's a reminder that the best apartment features aren't always the most obvious.</p>

<p>A generous floorplan or quality finishes might help narrow the shortlist, but the conveniences that simplify everyday life, whether that's EV charging, secure bike storage or reliable parcel delivery, often become the features residents appreciate most once they're living there.</p>


The apartment feature many buyers don't think about, until their first missed delivery

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hg-developments">HG Developments</a> is doubling down on Maud Street in Newstead, filing plans for a new apartment tower just a few doors down from its under-construction Aire Newstead development.</p>

<p>Recently submitted to Brisbane City Council, the proposal is for an 18-storey building designed by bureau^proberts, which has drawn heavily on Brisbane's subtropical design principles while referencing the suburb's industrial heritage.</p>

<p>A total of 64 apartments are planned for the amalgamated 1,518 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-21-maud-street-newstead-qld-4006">17–21 Maud Street</a>, a short walk from the Brisbane River and Newstead Riverwalk.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a400c7fd-bd15-48f8-a63b-10ede92efe00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20bldg.png?VersionId=.0vPmjpbC7CNP7kqGWa6L7rGIwsNExaw" /></p>

<p>"The building is defined by a series of vaulted motifs that reinterpret the arches, colonnades and layered facades evident throughout Newstead's historic built fabric," the Urban Design Report states.</p>

<p>"Combined with recessed glazing and generous balconies, these elements create a layered building envelope that provides shade, weather protection and opportunities for natural ventilation whilst establishing a distinctive architectural identity."</p>

<p>The proposal comprises 64 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 18 residential levels, positioning it alongside a growing number of taller residential projects transforming Newstead's northern precinct. The tower incorporates extensive subtropical landscaping, with cascading planter boxes, deep planting at street level and a landscaped rooftop recreation area.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: HG Developments plans 18-storey subtropical apartment tower for Newstead" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1d8140f4-8b98-45cd-b1b8-1efe8c8e266b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Maud%20st%20podium.png?VersionId=VAZtbCoD44YCJ57N99fQCAKeSJx7ldZs" /></p>

<p>Bureau Proberts has prioritised passive environmental design throughout the project, with generous balconies, recessed glazing and operable façades helping reduce solar heat gain while maximising natural ventilation. River views become available from the upper levels, while the building has been orientated to capture prevailing breezes from both the Brisbane River and the west.</p>

<p>The architects say landscape is intended to be integral to the building rather than an applied element.</p>

<p>"Vertical greenery, cascading planter boxes and elevated gardens are woven throughout the architecture, softening the built form and strengthening the connection between residents and the subtropical environment."</p>

<p>"Through the integration of landscape, high-quality materials and passive design principles, the development delivers a refined residential address that celebrates Newstead's heritage character while contributing positively to Brisbane's evolving subtropical identity."</p>

<p>Newstead has remained one of Brisbane's most active apartment markets in recent years, with a number of developers continuing to back the inner-city suburb.</p>

<p>HG Developments is currently delivering the 40-apartment Aire Newstead at 25 Maud Street. Fortis recently launched the 65-apartment <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> on Kyabra Street, while builder-developer BPG and Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties are both expected to launch their respective Newstead projects before the end of the year.</p>


HG Developments doubles down in Newstead with second Maud Street apartment development

<p>Walk past a new apartment development promoting its sustainability credentials and it's easy to picture rooftop gardens, mature trees, landscaped courtyards and residents surrounded by nature.</p>

<p>But in many cases, that's not actually what those sustainability ratings guarantee.</p>

<p>Australia's leading environmental rating tools have played a significant role in improving the energy efficiency and environmental performance of buildings. Yet despite their focus on reducing emissions, many don't require developers to include trees, biodiversity or meaningful green space.</p>

<p>In other words, a building can achieve one of the country's highest sustainability ratings while containing little more than concrete, glass and hard landscaping.</p>

<p>That disconnect has led to the emergence of a new movement across Australia's property industry: nature-based cities.</p>

<p>The concept goes beyond designing buildings that consume less energy. Instead, it encourages developers to treat nature as essential infrastructure, integrating biodiversity, tree canopy, living landscapes and green spaces into projects from the earliest stages of planning.</p>

<p>Research has consistently linked access to nature with better physical and mental health, cooler neighbourhoods, improved biodiversity, stronger climate resilience and more connected communities. As Australia's cities continue to become denser, advocates say those outcomes should be considered just as important as energy efficiency.</p>

<p>Nature Based Cities (NBC) was established in 2022 to help accelerate that shift.</p>

<p>Founded by Hamton Executive Chairman Paul Hameister OAM, the not-for-profit was created after research highlighted a significant gap in Australia's sustainability framework. While existing environmental rating tools rewarded energy performance and emissions reductions, they placed little emphasis on the inclusion of living landscapes.</p>

<p>"We've always wanted to do more, and we know other developers who want to do more, but the ESD rating tools just aren't there," Hameister says.</p>

<p>"In Australia, you can have a five-green-star rated building that's concrete and glass with not a blade of grass.</p>

<p>"The focus is on reducing emissions, which is laudable, but there hasn't been enough attention paid to protecting and re-establishing nature. We need both for the health of the environment and for communities."</p>

<p>Since its launch, NBC has developed independent design guidelines and accreditation frameworks that encourage developers to prioritise ecology, biodiversity, tree canopy, walkability and living landscapes alongside traditional sustainability measures. The organisation first focused on medium and high-density residential developments before recently expanding into precinct-scale communities and masterplanned neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Jan Talacko, founder of sustainability consultancy Ark Resources and a member of the Nature Based Cities Advisory Council, says the initiative addresses an area that has largely been overlooked by the property industry.</p>

<p>"Throughout my 25 years of working collaboratively with all stakeholders in the property sector, I've always favoured a pragmatic approach to sustainable design which encourages initiatives that not only meet environmental expectations but also improve amenity," Talacko says.</p>

<p>"Whilst we are making steady progress in relation to energy and carbon emissions from buildings, there has been much less emphasis on encouraging biodiversity and tackling the urban heat island effect.</p>

<p>"The Nature Based Cities initiative responds to a gap in the suite of tools currently used by the property development sector, which don't provide sufficient incentive, or recognition, for the integration of landscaping and greenery."</p>

<p>For apartment buyers, the shift is also changing the questions worth asking.</p>

<p>Rather than assuming a sustainable building will naturally include abundant green space, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to look beyond environmental ratings and ask what nature is actually being delivered. How much tree canopy will the development create? Has biodiversity been considered? Are landscaped spaces designed for people as well as appearance?</p>

<p>As Australia's cities continue to grow upwards and outwards, the next generation of sustainability may not simply be measured by lower emissions, but by how successfully developments bring nature back into everyday urban life.</p>


What does it really mean for a building to be 'green'?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the great absurdities of real estate research is the notion that you can encapsulate price growth for a major city in a single figure.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Greater Sydney area has a population of 4.82 million (2016 Census) and contains over 700 suburbs. They include markets as diverse as Macquarie Park versus Macquarie Fields and Newtown versus Campbelltown.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">They’re not all doing to the same thing at any one time, nor moving at the same speed.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But the research houses would have us believe that you can distil all the sales activity in these contrasting places into a single growth figure that makes sense.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s crazy to even try, but that’s what they do. And media laps it up, so long as it’s presented in a neat little media release package that makes journalists’ lives really easy.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This may explain why Sydney house prices are growing at an annual rate of 7.4 percent if you believe SQM Research asking price growth index, or 4 percent if you trust the latest figures from Domain, or just 0.1 percent if you think CoreLogic is the bee’s knees in real estate data.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Melbourne house prices are growing at either 8 percent, 11.3 percent or 23.6 percent in annual terms, depending on your source of choice.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Adelaide is rising, or falling; the Perth market is recovering, or not; and Canberra is up 5 percent or 18 percent – all dependent on which report you read most recently.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In my view, all real estate data is rubbery figures, to some degree.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And it’s adds an extra level of absurdity when economists, the least informed species about residential property on planet Earth, discuss Australian real estate as a single market. They all do it and media reports their misinformation daily – because if they have “economist” in their title they must be credible, right?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The reality is that we have a five-speed market in just the eight capital cities – and within those cities they are many different scenarios playing out.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We never have a situation in a major city where all parts of the market are rising (or falling) in unison.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Generally speaking, cycles start in a central point and ripple outwards gradually. The up-cycles in both Melbourne and Sydney began in the so-called prime suburbs and gravitated outwards over 3-4 years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s a signal that the cycle has almost run its course when the areas with the most sales activity and price growth are in the outer-ring suburbs. We’re at that time right now with both our largest cities, with the Camden LGA one of the few remaining upwardly-mobile markets in Greater Sydney, and outlying areas like the Hume LGA and the Wyndham City LGA the strongest markets in Greater Melbourne.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">What’s happening with our major markets makes a lot more sense when you chart them using sales volumes, rather than changes in price measures.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The latter method is fraught with potential for aberrations, with the results dependent on methodology and other factors, as the figures presented earlier illustrate very clearly.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Sydney house prices are not growing at an annual rate of 4 percent, as Domain would have us believe. Some suburbs are growing more than that, others are at the point in the cycle where they’re not growing at all and some have values going a little backwards. A few areas, particularly those close to over-supplied apartment precincts, will have larger declines in values.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But none of that will be conveyed to real estate consumers – they’ll be given a single misleading figure encapsulating the whole city, only to be contradicted a few days later by a different number from another source.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But the sales activity figures (which we examine every quarter for The Price Predictor Index) seldom lie.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">They’re revealing in all sorts of ways. For example, how about this question: when did the Melbourne market peak?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">For in the swanky inner south-eastern suburbs such as Hawthorn (median price $2.1 million) and Canterbury ($2.9 million), it was early in 2014.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">For middle market areas like Blackburn ($1.3 million) and Oakleigh ($1.2 million) it was the early part of 2015. And outer-ring precincts like Cranbourne ($480,000) and Carrum Downs ($500,000) hit their high points late in 2016 or early in 2017. Other outlying areas arrived at that point towards the end of last year.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It shows the many different market scenarios in play across the nation – and the degree to which economists and other commentators misinform consumers with their one-size-fits-all approach to real estate analysis.</span></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Property price growth cycles start in a central point and ripple outwards gradually: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<div>Like many getting-a-bit-long-in-the-tooth Sydneysiders, I've increasingly been having recurring daydreams about selling a place at Bondi or in the inner west and trading it for a mansion at Maroochydore (or sometime it's a mooring at Mooloolaba). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Probably about once a fortnight I have these fantasises, on average, I reckon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then reality bites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wake up and find that Infrastructure Australia (IA) has released another report, which always brings me back to earth and reminds me why I invested in inner-Sydney property in the first place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever, IA's Future Cities report presents a range of scenarios.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a decentralised scenario which incorporates acres of building and hundreds of thousands of new homes in the south-west.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's a centralised scenario where everyone crams like crazy into zones close to the Central Business District (CBD), and to a lesser extent Parramatta.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's the medium-density scenario, which is a realistic mixture of the two, incorporating population growth across the city and on balance the most likely outcome. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The scenarios have one thing in common: none of them envisages a Sydney in 2046 with a population of under 7.34 million. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PdMnCv6NaPM/WpCTHx3DIuI/AAAAAAAAoic/PKX5PyrObPwoXRjOHlN760TUpD5B47wUwCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="240" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1324"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Although people are expected to live all over Sydney, the share of employment will remain heavily skewed to the CBD and city fringe, and to a secondary extent Parramatta. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aHGJZcD-GmI/WpDsUCuGnlI/AAAAAAAAois/t4fM1LPGEfcej_ytStllHGeERXSVygGMgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1010"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>And there's a great deal of consideration of how people will get around with millions of extra people in essentially the same amount of space (as an investor, I've always gone for train links to the City or walking distance from the Sydney CBD). </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nYjMyB370L0/WpDsgFvkAAI/AAAAAAAAoiw/tW2NMZ_pFIYAhZF5E69vfdV5TCOc_-q-ACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="456" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="658"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Nobody can predict the future, but one thing I will hang my hat on is a massive ongoing demand for rentals close to the middle of Sydney. </div>
<p>From the horse's mouth...</p>
<p>Between 2017 and 2046, Australia’s population is projected to increase by 11.8 million people. </p>
<div>That’s equivalent to adding a new city, roughly the size of Canberra, each year for the next 30 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>About 75% of this growth will occur in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth is a central driver of this change. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the next 30 years, Sydney’s population is projected to increase by 2.4 million people, growing to be a city of 7.4 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the same period, Melbourne is projected to grow by 2.7 million people, to be a city of 7.3 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Between now and 2046, Brisbane is projected to grow by 1.6 million people and Perth by 2.2 million people, delivering cities of just under 4 million and 4.3 million, respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This means the Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will become cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While Melbourne and Sydney will become cities comparable to the current size of some of the world’s most significant urban economies, operating more like the Hong Kong, New York and London of today.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will be cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today: Pete Wargent

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Price growth in the Top end suburbs can often be a signal for an emerging growth cycle in a city market.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Certainly, the booms in both Sydney and Melbourne started in the most expensive areas and rippled out to the middle-ring and outer-ring areas over time.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This is because real estate growth comes from events in the local economy. When the underlying economy in a major city starts to thrive, the first people to benefit are the business owners and others with above-average incomes - and that translates into purchases in the prestige suburbs.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So we think it is significant that, while prices remain suppressed in Perth overall, many of the millionaire suburbs have seen good price growth in the past year. This is also a feature in Adelaide: price growth overall has been moderate but prices have been rising strongly in the Top End suburbs.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s much less prevalent in the Brisbane market, which is struck in second gear and struggling to accelerate.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">One factor evident in our latest analysis of sales activity and prices is that there is growth in the upper end of the Perth market. The latest data shows that several Perth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million have recorded strong growth in their medians in the past 12 months.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">This trend is widespread across the prestige market. Suburbs with strongly rising prices include Nedlands, Applecross, Cottesloe, Dalkeith and Bicton.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">Confidence that the upturn is sustainable comes from revival in the mining sector and the large numbers of jobs being created. As the WA economy improves, businesses thrive and business people become more confident in their real estate purchases.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">This suggests that Perth generally can look forward to a return to price growth in the near future. This is supported by recent reports from Knight Frank, SQM Research and the Real Estate Institute of WA.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Adelaide, while sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It’s noteworthy that several millionaire suburbs have recorded major growth in their median house prices in past 12 months.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Glenelg South, Kensington Park, St Georges, Erindale, Henley Beach South, Hyde Park, North Adelaide and Hazelwood Park all have median prices above $1 million and have had median price growth above 20% in the past year. Other upper-level suburbs like Glenunga, Norwood, Parkside, Beaumont and Crafers have had growth above 10%.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Some suburbs have had median price growth above 35% (and one above 40%) but based on small sales samples so we think this may be misleading.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Brisbane, however, only a handful of popular inner-ring suburbs (e.g. Ashgrove, Paddington and Bulimba) have recorded double-digit growth in median prices in the past year.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Some examples of rising markets in the Top End of some capital cities:-</span></p>
<p class="p3">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p class="p3"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s2"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Prestige markets rising in smaller cities like Perth and Adelaide: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There are strong linkages between events in the local economy and outcomes in real estate markets.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If a city’s economy is growing and creating jobs, real estate markets will be busy.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Proximity to employment nodes is an important marker to look for, remembering that most of the jobs are in the suburbs, not in the CBDs.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">At Hotspotting we’re scouring information sources every day looking for events that indicate buoyancy (or otherwise) in local economies.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If a major new infrastructure project is planned, we want to know about it. If a business is expanding, creating hundreds of extra jobs, that’s worth adding to our database of knowledge. If a company is relocating its business because of a particular dynamic in the new location, that creates a blip on our radar screen.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here are some examples of what I mean:</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>Tesla and South Australia</strong></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Elon Musk’s Tesla has set up the group’s first Australian battery and electric cars service centre at the Tonsley innovation precinct in Adelaide.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">Heath Walker, senior manager, marketing and communications at Tesla, says: “The facility will help service our growing footprint in the state, including the <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/worlds-largest-lithium-battery-switched-on-near-jamestown/news-story/2c4992845ce77309d7dad0d48a2d754c">Hornsdale battery system</a> and other Powerwall systems we have there, including one recently installed at the TAFE facility at Tonsley.”</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">The Federal and State Governments last month announced they will invest in South Australia’s second large-scale Tesla “big battery’’. The 52MWh battery will be connected to the existing Lake Bonney Wind Farm near Millicent in the state’s south-east.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">Tesla installed Australia’s first big battery - and currently the world’s largest at 100MWh - at Jamestown, next to the Hornsdale wind farm run by French company Neoen.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">In July, Tesla installed residential-scale batteries at 100 Housing SA homes, equipped with solar panels as part of the first phase of a State Government-backed 250 MW virtual power plant. A further 1000 public housing properties will receive the same equipment in the second phase.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">Why do we care? Because the South Australian economy is on a growth path and a significant part of the emerging growth is the state’s status as the national leader on alternative energy and Adelaide’s growing reputation as the nation’s leading city for high-tech innovation.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2">The Tonsley precinct, which has emerged from the ashes of a former Mitsubishi car plant, is a thriving innovation, health and education centre in the Marion LGA, which we rate highly as an emerging hotspot.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>Youi and the Sunshine Coast</strong></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">Insurance company Youi is currently seeking to recruit 120 people for its headquarters on the Sunshine Coast. </span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">When the $73 million building at Sippy Downs first opened in November 2017, it employed 1,000 people and the company's stated vision was to eventually grow this to 3,000. </span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">Youi’s decision to locate its national HQ on the Sunshine Coast is indicative of the evolution of this location from tourist resort to regional city.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">A lot is changing in the Sunshine Coast economy, much of it inspired by major spending on infrastructure and new business ventures.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">The new medical precinct, based around the $2 billion Sunshine Coast University Hospital, has been a game-changer.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Billions more are being spent on the local airport, key sections of the motorway, the new Maroochydore CBD and many other projects.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">The total list of Sunshine Coast projects is worth over $20 billion and it’s transforming the local economy - and with it the local property market.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2"><strong>Ipswich and the military economy</strong></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">Any location with a strong military economy has an advantage. Cities with a RAAF Base and/or Army base have a built-in generator of economic activity and jobs, particularly given the current national trend of expansion.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">Examples include Newcastle, northern Adelaide, Wagga Wagga and Ipswich in the far south-west of Brisbane.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2">Ipswich has the Amberley RAAF Base on its doorstep and has a growing number of major businesses servicing the military.</span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s2">It was announced recently that TAE Aerospace will develop a Turbine Engine Maintenance Facility (TEMF) in the Ipswich suburb of Bundamba to support Australia’s fifth-generation F-35 Joint Strike fighter jets.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s2">The addition of the F135 engine MRO&amp;U activities will add 15 aerospace technician jobs to its workforce and up to 85 additional jobs as part of the future F-35 Global Support Solution.</span></p>
<p class="p6"><span class="s3">Not far away in Wacol, </span><span class="s2">Rheinmetall is building its $170 million Military Vehicle Centre of Excellence to build vehicles for the Australian Army. Watpac has been appointed managing contractor to deliver the facility, which is expected to support 300 jobs, with completion expected in 2020.</span></p>
<p class="p7"><span class="s2">The facility will be Rheinmetall's largest presence outside of Germany and will manage the delivery of the initial 211 Boxer combat reconnaissance vehicles under Land 400 Phase 2, and accommodate Rheinmetall's other defence projects.</span></p>
<p class="p8"><span class="s2">Also in Wacol, Volvo Group Australia recently opened its new national headquarters at the Metroplex Westgate business park, close to the company’s existing assembly plant.</span></p>
<p class="p8"><span class="s2">Around 300 jobs were created during construction of the new headquarters and around 195 people will now work there, along with 530 at the nearby factory.</span></p>
<p class="p8"><span class="s2">For these and many other reasons, I’m bullish about the prospects for real estate growth in Ipswich, which has many affordable suburbs and strong infrastructure, as well as many big jobs nodes. Businesses base themselves there because the land is cheap and the transport links are good.</span></p>
<p class="p9"><span class="s2">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p9"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p10"><span class="s2"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Military economy benefiting Ipswich property investors: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A university study suggests the 2018 Gold Coast Commonwealth Games, which are costing around $2 billion to stage, will deliver Queensland a $4 billion economic windfall.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The question is how much impact the Games will have on Gold Coast real estate markets. We can sure the industry will talk up the benefits and the prodigious Gold Coast publicity machine will be working overtime to lure investors – but I believe the outcomes for real estate will be over-stated.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A Griffith University report says the Games will result in billions of dollars in new public and private infrastructure and 670,000 extra tourists. It will help create 30,000 jobs and stimulate benefits for business years after the Games end.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Griffith Institute For Tourism-led report predicts the Games will be “an economic supercharger” for the Gold Coast and Queensland.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The 68-page report - by five academics specialising in tourism, accounting and finance – says “the state and the country will benefit for years to come”.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“The Games will bring more international visitors to the state, create business opportunities, and further facilitate multi-faceted cultural exchange,” it says. “The potential impacts ... are multifaceted and include not only economic but social and environmental aspects.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A $2 billion boost to the state’s gross domestic product is a key forecast in the report, which also tips $2.6 billion in public and private sector investment.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Games are deemed to have been a catalyst for projects such as the $420 million second stage of the Gold Coast light-rail linking to the heavy rail line at Helensvale, as well as upgrades to Pacific Far ($670 million), The Star hotel casino ($345 million), the Gold Coast Airport ($300 million) and various transport infrastructure improvements.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Then there’s specific Games infrastructure, including the $550 million athletes village, the $110 million Gold Coast Sport and Leisure Centre, the $40 million Gold Coast Aquatic Centre and the $40 million Coomera Indoor Sports Centre.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Around 16,000 full-time equivalent jobs are forecast to be generated before, during and after the Games, plus another 14,000 temporary positions.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, while the economic and infrastructure benefits appear clear, less certain are the impacts on the real estate market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Commonwealth Games promise to provide a short-term sugar hit for the real estate market – and we’ve seen much of that impact already.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The benefits for housing demand relate to the jobs created by the event and related construction work. There have been thousands of workers drawn to the Gold Coast for the construction jobs in the lead-up to the event. But most of those jobs disappear once projects are completed prior to the Games.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This explains why the Gold Coast was a leading growth market in 2015 and 2016 – but has started to level out in terms of sales activity in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The other factor – and this is the big one – is the degree to which developers over-react to the Games impact and over-build.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Gold Coast is a notorious boom-bust market even in “normal” times. It lurches from peak to trough periodically – and often takes years to recover from a bout of major oversupply.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This helps to explain why the median price for an apartment in Surfers Paradise is lower today than it was a decade ago. It’s similar for other coastal suburbs like Main Beach and Broadbeach.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Over-supply is the biggest killer of property markets across Australia and the Gold Coast is a leading example of this phenomenon.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Developers, partly in response to the Games euphoria, are building more high-rise unit projects, and larger projects, than ever before.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I fear that this will snuff out any chance of the Gold Coast market experiencing a sustainable boom from the Commonwealth Games.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Any investors tempted by the euphoria should steer clear of the high-rise markets and concentrate on the genuine housing markets inland.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></a></p>
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How will the Commonwealth Games impact the Gold Coast real estate markets?

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<p>As a cricket tragic, I was thrilled a little over a year when we named our son Stanley, being in part a subtle or oblique reference to one end of the Gabba cricket ground in Brisbane (I felt a reference to the old Clem Jones stand - or even 'Sir Gordon Chalk'! - might have been pushing it...).  </p>
<p>There's been a tremendous amount of excitement in Brisbane this week as the English cricket team is in town to the play the first Test Match of the historic Ashes series.</p>
<p>The view of the Stanley Street End skyline today takes in many cranes, as well as the imposing $85 million Trafalgar Residences, a 20-storey apartment block at 855 Stanley Street (being a new development since the last time an Ashes test was played here). </p>
<p>Looking back towards the opposite Vulture Street End of the ground, the television cameras picked up the apartments advertised for sale and for rent at 444 Vulture Street, where apartments are advertised for rent from $360/week for one bedroom units, and from $750/week and above for three bedders. </p>
<p>At this stage of the construction cycle there's a risk of vacancy rates being understated as a single online advertisement can account for multiple new apartments.</p>
<p>The ubiquitous offers of rent-free periods for tenants, free internet (and so on) in Woolloongabba apartments reflect the clear weakness in the rental market. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-itoxPPGm1ZU/WhhpS_l1dYI/AAAAAAAAnKI/hBj0N50WViseRcD2sqxmCuyVuHD7le_gACLcBGAs/s1600/Gabba1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-itoxPPGm1ZU/WhhpS_l1dYI/AAAAAAAAnKI/hBj0N50WViseRcD2sqxmCuyVuHD7le_gACLcBGAs/s640/Gabba1.jpg" width="640" height="626" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="624"></a></p>
<p>In a moment of wry amusement, even match commentator Damien 'Flemo' Fleming was moved to mention the glut of new building in the suburb, a rare yet curiously welcome departure from the discussion of Bowlology, the Fast Bowling Cartel, and heavy metal music!</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BwaK2bL-bhM/WhhpTYP9BVI/AAAAAAAAnKM/CXCbpcod3xwCNIMN83h-Q9pJqS4XiN2nwCLcBGAs/s1600/Gabba2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BwaK2bL-bhM/WhhpTYP9BVI/AAAAAAAAnKM/CXCbpcod3xwCNIMN83h-Q9pJqS4XiN2nwCLcBGAs/s320/Gabba2.jpg" width="640" height="318" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1320"></a></p>
<p><strong>Avenue of apprehension</strong></p>
<p>The new high-rise apartment market can be a risky one for buyers, in part because the apartments can lack uniqueness or scarcity value, and partly because the duration of projects can span several years from approval to completion, at which point the market can suddenly become swamped with new supply. </p>
<p>This cycle has played host to Queensland's greatest ever apartment construction boom, eclipsing even the post-recession boom of the early 1990s, although far fewer houses have been built this time around.</p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VjQ48qj4NHU/WhhqQDIpq8I/AAAAAAAAnKg/eyFCJfPOSPscNdjqj93ghMJRqPEMfBGNQCLcBGAs/s1600/A.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VjQ48qj4NHU/WhhqQDIpq8I/AAAAAAAAnKg/eyFCJfPOSPscNdjqj93ghMJRqPEMfBGNQCLcBGAs/s640/A.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1347"></a></p>
<p>As we have seen in Perth since 2014, the long lead times mean that by the time projects are completed demand may have slowed significantly.</p>
<p>In fact, until relatively recently Western Australia was seeing the number of new dwelling completions exceed the growth in headcount, as population growth had slowed so dramatically, resulting in a surge of rental vacancies and falling rents. The city of Darwin went down a similar path.</p>
<p>Queensland has suffered from this dynamic too, albeit to a lesser extent. The good news for Brisbane landlords is that the Queensland economy, employment growth, and thus the three components of demographic change (natural growth, net overseas migration, and net interstate migration) are now aligning to create faster population growth. </p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oqk7AYTwwy4/WhhqPgZCVuI/AAAAAAAAnKc/VKtFnrAI48s2-ZhHd6JsQEtpu2i0EQR_wCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oqk7AYTwwy4/WhhqPgZCVuI/AAAAAAAAnKc/VKtFnrAI48s2-ZhHd6JsQEtpu2i0EQR_wCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1363"></a></p>
<p>Meanwhile new apartment commencements are slowing to a crawl, helping to rebalance the market over time.</p>
<p>The Brisbane apartment market is heading back towards equilibrium eventually, then, but 2018 will nevertheless be a splendid year for renters, especially in some of these inner-city unit markets. </p>
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Apartment glut on the Gabba's skyline obvious even to the Channel 9 cricket commentary team: Pete Wargent

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<p>One of the prevailing myths in residential real estate is that you should always buy in the capital cities because regional centres can’t match the big cities on capital growth.</p>
<p>And like most generalised commentary on Australian housing issues, it’s rubbish.</p>
<p>The myth is supported by research companies which specialise in trying to encapsulate an entire nation or a very large region in a single growth figure.</p>
<p>Here’s a recent example: dwelling values have grown 7 percent in the combined capital cities in the past 12 months, but the combined regional areas have grown 5 percent.</p>
<p>That’s pretty clear, right? The capital cities win again!</p>
<p>But, like all generalisations about Australian real estate, the figures are meaningless and essentially useless.</p>
<p>The 7% growth figure for capital cities doesn’t tell us anything useful, because it disguises two cities where values have fallen, two where values have grown very little, a couple with solid growth and a couple with strong growth.</p>
<p>And within those capital cities, there are myriad different scenarios playing out for local reasons.</p>
<p>So you can imagine how many disparate and diverse local market situations contribute to the huge melting pot that distils them into one small, misleading and basically pointless figure for “regional Australia”: 5% growth, according to one source.</p>
<p>Why do they do it? Because media laps it up and gives them lots of free publicity for this steady stream of worthless misinformation.</p>
<p>Much more useful is looking at individual markets – some of which blow away the myth about regional markets under-performing.</p>
<p>The city of Newcastle is as good an example as any. Newcastle - driven by a strong local economy and big spending on infrastructure and new development, as well as appealing prices relative to Sydney - has produced extremely strong price growth in the past two years (as we predicted at Hotspotting).</p>
<p>Most suburbs of the Newcastle City LGA have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months. Eight of those suburbs have grown more than 20 percent, including a couple above 30 percent.</p>
<p>The median for Waratah is up 16 percent to $555,000, Adamstown is up 23 percent to $655,000, Stockton has grown 21 percent to $690,000, Maryville 26 percent to $720,000 and Cooks Hill 32 percent to $1,085,000.</p>
<p>Under-pinning that growth has been massive investment in the Newcastle economy. The Hotspotting lists of projects driving the economic growth total well over $20 billion, including resources, transport infrastructure, commercial, retail and residential developments.</p>
<p>The only regional city in Australia that can match Newcastle for this level of investment is the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, which also tops $20 billion.</p>
<p>Of course, given the very high price growth that’s already occurred in Newcastle, it’s too late to get into that market at a decent price.</p>
<p>But there are other ways to benefit from what’s happening in Newcastle, which is part of a broader region.</p>
<p>The Lake Macquarie LGA, which borders Newcastle City, is also a growth market but hasn’t yet had the same level of price increases.</p>
<p>And heading west out into the Hunter Valley, there are numerous towns moving into growth phases but with the big price growth yet to come – such as Maitland and Cessnock.</p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Regional centres can match capital growth of big cities

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for October 2017, which showed housing credit expanding by +6.5 per cent over the past 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit is slowing, but total housing credit growth remained higher than a year earlier, when it was +6.4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit broke through $1.7 trillion on the strength in owner-occupier lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>$60 billion of loans have now been reclassified from investor to owner-occupier. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-e9uRF_zy5oQ/WiKnpcXUnaI/AAAAAAAAnRM/-OwCjyORoloVG0nFZ7J7qO7rho_nUlArACEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-e9uRF_zy5oQ/WiKnpcXUnaI/AAAAAAAAnRM/-OwCjyORoloVG0nFZ7J7qO7rho_nUlArACEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1403"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Personal credit contracted by -0.9 per cent over the year, while annual business credit growth was steady at +4 per cent.<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Know your limits</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>APRA also released its monthly banking statistics, which revealed a similar trend, with the monthly result showing considerably faster growth in owner-occupier loans (+0.6 per cent) than investment lending (+0.15 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Comparing the aggregates suggests that non-banks continue to garner market share. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Westpac has been offering discounted investor loans of late, and took the opportunity to grow its investment loans books further in the month (it already has the largest mortgage book pertaining to investors). </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8Fxpkv5SEXM/WiKnpIitVzI/AAAAAAAAnRI/wgdjuKrluRYH56ztoLFQf8LPo7fbDJ99wCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8Fxpkv5SEXM/WiKnpIitVzI/AAAAAAAAnRI/wgdjuKrluRYH56ztoLFQf8LPo7fbDJ99wCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1412"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Indeed, not only is new interest-only lending now well below the proposed regulatory cap, all of the major banks are now seeing investor credit growing at way below the 10 per cent annual speed limit. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-es6thHJIJ5c/WiKnp7UVVDI/AAAAAAAAnRQ/O4jGAA5CHAEhFquJhGVlZygDwJ5qFGtTQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-es6thHJIJ5c/WiKnp7UVVDI/AAAAAAAAnRQ/O4jGAA5CHAEhFquJhGVlZygDwJ5qFGtTQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1367"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>These statistics show that there is potentially plenty of scope for banks to incentivise faster investor lending in 2018, particularly Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Bank.<br><br>Oh, and there's a Royal Commission to follow!</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wbT8FzhZC5w/WiKr6bzIaYI/AAAAAAAAnRo/tiSHmv9eWGUSJBb4WVlSCubp4peYkulpwCLcBGAs/s1600/limit-2299513_1920.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wbT8FzhZC5w/WiKr6bzIaYI/AAAAAAAAnRo/tiSHmv9eWGUSJBb4WVlSCubp4peYkulpwCLcBGAs/s640/limit-2299513_1920.jpg" width="640" height="480" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600"></a></div>
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RBA's October Financial Aggregates figures sees housing credit expand

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<div>If anyone doubted APRA's commitment or ability to quell interest-only lending, then they definitely shouldn't any more.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New interest-only loans have been smashed to smithereens, down from 45.6 per cent of the market at the 2015 peak to just 16.9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zswlpvzps3E/WigMRNV_yAI/AAAAAAAAnVU/lHVGM4KBkwwiIzu2Db1M_Wu_ZRql-JL3QCLcBGAs/s1600/IO.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zswlpvzps3E/WigMRNV_yAI/AAAAAAAAnVU/lHVGM4KBkwwiIzu2Db1M_Wu_ZRql-JL3QCLcBGAs/s640/IO.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1375"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Banks continue to wind back high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending, continuing a trend that has been underway for 4 years now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Property buyers will not only need to pay back principal, they'll need to have a decent deposit too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/---2itDzQ4n0/WigMRKZLz0I/AAAAAAAAnVY/1Zi2PyTRlrwptGVf9ipTWhgRF6OfBmvEQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/---2itDzQ4n0/WigMRKZLz0I/AAAAAAAAnVY/1Zi2PyTRlrwptGVf9ipTWhgRF6OfBmvEQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1381"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Despite this, the total value of residential mortgages on ADI books rose by +6.9 per cent over the year to September, as the pendulum swings from investors to homebuyers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Si9WlQyE2KA/WigMROdTkDI/AAAAAAAAnVQ/n90AzNH4ehc_YxyJx67BsNSfvbPyGLxSgCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Si9WlQyE2KA/WigMROdTkDI/AAAAAAAAnVQ/n90AzNH4ehc_YxyJx67BsNSfvbPyGLxSgCLcBGAs/s640/APRA3.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1382"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>A seismic shift in the market then, as more borrowers will now be compelled to pay back some debt.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With interest-only lending peaking in 2015, the greatest volume of rollovers will occur in 2020 - <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/p-cliff" target="_blank">see here</a> for my thoughts on what might happen then. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Uid2rCJIsEs/WigSMe3FNOI/AAAAAAAAnVo/gXeo4S5y4DUBHMnxjtL28IR_T3Sf-dbAwCLcBGAs/s1600/lightning-1082080_1920.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Uid2rCJIsEs/WigSMe3FNOI/AAAAAAAAnVo/gXeo4S5y4DUBHMnxjtL28IR_T3Sf-dbAwCLcBGAs/s640/lightning-1082080_1920.jpg" width="640" height="422" data-original-height="1060" data-original-width="1600"></a>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p><span class="s1"> </span></p>
</div>
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APRA strikes back to quell IO lending

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<p>S&amp;P Global Ratings has reported that Australia's prime SPIN 30+ day delinquencies declined a little further from 1.08 per cent to 1.04 per cent in October 2017.</p>
<div id="post-body-3454931207027681415">
<div>
<p>31-60 day prime mortgage arrears have now been tracking at historic lows since June 2017.</p>
<p>There's still a bit happening in the 90+ days space, but arrears have been improving here too since May.</p>
<p>Year-on-year mortgage arrears were comfortably lower.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxfCYFuanl0/Wjgn0DCCqvI/AAAAAAAAnks/ALly7UBUGHcvhI-sIXAjjgrxzzHjIXxuQCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P%2BArrears.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KxfCYFuanl0/Wjgn0DCCqvI/AAAAAAAAnks/ALly7UBUGHcvhI-sIXAjjgrxzzHjIXxuQCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P%2BArrears.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1347"></a></p>
</div>
<div>Declines were reported in all mainland states and territories. </div>
<br><div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c-AKP9xZqh8/WjddO7rxMYI/AAAAAAAAnj4/lQtqxkBFhFUyC2hsBnDCSK4yElKrWBc6ACLcBGAs/s1600/SandP.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c-AKP9xZqh8/WjddO7rxMYI/AAAAAAAAnj4/lQtqxkBFhFUyC2hsBnDCSK4yElKrWBc6ACLcBGAs/s400/SandP.jpg" width="400" height="327" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="788"></a></div>
<br><div>Source: S&amp;P Global Ratings</div>
<br><div>Western Australia continued to have the highest rate of 30-day arrears, declining from 2.21 per cent to 2.12 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The lowest rate of delinquency was to be found in the ACT at only 0.58 per cent (Canberra has <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/drain-swamp" target="_blank">by far the highest incomes</a> on the country). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales 30-day arrears fell from 0.79 per cent to only 0.75 per cent in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Arrears were also below 1 per cent in Victoria and Tasmania.<br><br>Over the past year the biggest improvers were the southern states of Tasmania and South Australia (the other ex-mining state jurisdictions had low arrears already).<br><br><div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1302"></a></div>
</div>
<div>As at the beginning of 2017, S&amp;P Global had reported:<br><br>"We believe that the risk of a sharp, disorderly correction in house prices remains relatively low, reflecting our stable economic outlook for Australia."<br><br>While risks remain, S&amp;P commented this month:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"We do not expect arrears to increase much above current levels while benign economic conditions persist." </div>
</div>
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