South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.

The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]

Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.

Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]

Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.

Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]

The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.

Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.

Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.

The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.

Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.

&nbsp;

Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.

“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.

"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."

On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;

The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.

Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.

The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.

Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”

The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.

“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.

Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.

“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.

“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”

<img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" />

The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.

The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."

The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.

“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."

<img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.

The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.

First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.

Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.

That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]

The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.

Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.

That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]

The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.

Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]

Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.

A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.

Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]

Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.

Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.

They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.

<img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" />

Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.

They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.

"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.

"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."

Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.

First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<div>Figures out recently showed Australian employment growth <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">tracking at all-time record levels</a>, with a stunning +420,700 year-on-year increase in employment, including an eye-watering +166,200 increase in New South Wales. I took a look through those numbers in a bit more detail, including at the state level, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">here</a>. Population growth tends to be pro-cyclical, and over the year to September 2017 the annual growth in Australia's estimated resident population picked up to +395,600, for the quickest annual increase since 2013 in absolute terms, if not in percentage terms. The estimated rate of population increase through net overseas migration is a bit faster than might be implied by the issuance of permanent residency visas, with the growth international students accounting for some of the difference. I'll take a look below through where and why that's happened in 4 short parts. Part 1: By natural causes... 
</div>
<div>As the population grows and ages the number of deaths each year tends to climb steadily, now up to +161,100 over the year to September 2017. The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture. Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades. I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow. I've yet to get divorced. You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for much longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!). Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500. Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase. </div>
<div class="separator">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s1600/C1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1336"></a> </div>
<div>It's hard to predict what will happen here. Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options. Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/demographic-tsunami" target="_blank">corresponding explosion</a> in the 25-34 year old cohort. The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all. Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet. <div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s1600/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s640/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
 Part 2: Immigration nation 
</div>
<div>Australia's permanent migrant intake is capped at around 200,000 per annum, but the overall pace of net overseas migration was faster than this, partly accounted for by international students. Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere. Incidentally, I wrote in 2015 how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though). Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-34wqqS42Kv8/WrMt_uNCZRI/AAAAAAAApDE/S7IKg-aAloEvqn9YiWNsX7i3Mlzr4NWxACLcBGAs/s1600/C2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-34wqqS42Kv8/WrMt_uNCZRI/AAAAAAAApDE/S7IKg-aAloEvqn9YiWNsX7i3Mlzr4NWxACLcBGAs/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1362"></a></div>
 The next slide tells its own story: immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers. 
<div> </div>
<div>Concerningly for the regional centres of Australia, the Characteristics of Recent Migrants survey showed that not only do migrants uniformly head to the capital cities, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">they also now overwhelmingly remain there</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I know a bit about this, because I'm one of the said migrants, although like many I've made a couple of internal capital city moves since my first arrival in Australia in the 1990s. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the mining boom years through until 2012 immigrants also flocked to the resources states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I recall Simon Reeve's BBC documentaries revealing to stunned Britons that expat truck drivers in Western Australia were earning salaries that most working class Poms could only dream of, and to rub further salt into their wounds the truckies were living in houses with swimming pools you could actually swim in! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although Queensland has experienced something of a rebound, the drawcard for the resources states is not nearly as strong as it used to be, and South Australia has at least half a foot in that camp too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LnrfG9IeByk/WrMt_3Xt3iI/AAAAAAAApDI/G_pEbNLsM7g31kEbUmB4R8Emq2NOQp51QCLcBGAs/s1600/C3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LnrfG9IeByk/WrMt_3Xt3iI/AAAAAAAApDI/G_pEbNLsM7g31kEbUmB4R8Emq2NOQp51QCLcBGAs/s640/C3.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1378"></a></div>
<div>
 Going forward Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland are projected to capture the bulk of population growth. Perth will now have direct flights to Europe in its favour, but my analysis here previously has shown that in the future almost all of the net growth in the overseas born population will be driven by migrants of Asian origin. European-born Baby Boomers are set to drop off the perch and more Asian migrants and international students from China and India are dominating the intake (with many expected to become permanent residents later). This in turn has a strong impact on future demographic pull-factors, including for family visas and future international students. Part 3: Upping sticks One of the main trends to watch for me at the moment is internal movements as the two most populous capital cities adjust to the latest influx. Sydney in particular can be wearisome at times with the delivery of the CBD &amp; South East Light Rail project still seemingly an age away, although testing on the Randwick section is at least now underway. This is scant consolation, I expect, for the commuting residents of Randwick and Coogee currently experiencing near-unfathomable gridlock on their short 6 to 8km journey to the city, only to discover that when then arrive in the city the key CBD thoroughfares are being dug up there too. For this reason and others, Queensland has now usurped Victoria as the typical interstate migrant's destination of choice with net inflows hitting a decade high of above +19,000. About 12,000 of those came from New South Wales on a net basis, with the ratio of Sydney's house prices to those in Brisbane tracking at the highest level we've ever seen at above 2.2. One way or another that ratio will likely close back below 2. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s1600/C4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s640/C4.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1329"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although not included here because it would simply be a long, flat, green line on this Y-axis scale, Tasmania is now attracting more than a smattering of interstate migrants at +1,000 net over the year to September. Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s. South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern. The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest. Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne. I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it. Part 4: Totting it up Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015. Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast. I looked <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">in a bit more detail here</a> at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State. But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).  </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s1600/C5.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s640/C5.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1379"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A significant <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/melbourne-population-growth-blows-doors" target="_blank">intercensal difference</a> emerged in the 2016 Census and found that the nadir in population growth in Western Australia was considerably lower than previously believed, partly accounting for the dwelling stock overhang, though population growth is now picking up again and the housing market is rebalancing. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s1600/C6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s640/C6.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1351"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Western Australia's annual population growth was up to +22,000 or +0.9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, the Northern Territory experienced a small population decline in the September 2017 quarter, which is fairly unusual, though not unheard of. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've even lived in Darwin myself, which says something about what a cyclical type of place it can be. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Through recent episodes of disruption there have been strong correcting factors such a once-in-150 year resources boom or the Cyclone Tracy rebuild to drive the Territory forward. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s1600/NT.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s640/NT.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1369"></a></div>
 
<div>I'm not sure what comes next for the NT through the Ichthys/INPEX construction phase wash-up, but then again I haven't been to Darwin for a couple of years and it's the sort of place that likes to deliver surprises. </div>
 
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, then, estimated growth in the resident population at +395,600 was comfortably stronger than a year earlier, when it was +370,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's estimated resident population will accordingly pass 25 million within just a few months from today, with Queensland's population projected to surpass 5 million in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the concentration of migrants into the capitals Greater Melbourne is growing at about the fastest pace ever. Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>South-east Queensland population growth will pick up as the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">magnetic north</a> does its thing, and in fact it already is as anyone living in inner Brisbane will testify. <div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1339"></a></div>
</div>
<div>Next I'll get around to posting my mapping population growth versus dwelling completions, which will reveal an interesting outcome or two, especially for Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers

<html><body>
Investors tend to under-rate regional Australia. Among the many myths that clutter up the minds of typical investors is the one suggesting that capital cities always out-perform regional markets.
There’s plenty of evidence disproving that notion, but it’s a foolish concept anyway because it’s usually based on media reports of generalised data.
The passion of research firms and journalists to reduce growth to a single figure for major cities or indeed the entire nation is a frequent source of misinformation. 
These numbers sometimes suggest that capital cities are growing faster than the regions, but such data is useless information because within a generally unflattering regional overview (dragged down by struggling resources-related towns) may be individual locations which are doing very well.
But right now, the generalised numbers from CoreLogic have the regions outperforming the capital cities on overall growth.
That does not surprise me because most of the standout locations on price growth in the past 12 months are regional areas.
Newcastle has been one of the nation’s outstanding growth markets recently and some of the regional centres close to Melbourne, including Geelong and the towns of Cardinia Shire, are experiencing exceptional growth. Some suburbs and towns in these areas have increased more than 20% - and a few are above 30%.
The only capital city locations that can challenge them are some of the outer-ring areas of Melbourne, like the suburbs of Wyndham City down near Geelong.
Perhaps more important than these short-term results is a look at recent history, which shows that some of the outstanding growth spurts in Australia in the past 20 years have occurred in regional areas.
According to a recent analysis, the single biggest five-year growth spurt for house prices occurred in Regional Western Australia in the five years to 2008 (prices overall rose 121%). This was when regional centres like Port Hedland and Karratha were being pumped up by the massive investment boom in the resources sector.
Also during that period Regional Tasmania grew 89% and Regional Queensland was up almost 70%.
Another of the outstanding growth periods was achieved by Regional NSW in the five years to 2003, when prices grew an average of 84%, better than any of the capital cities during that boom time (the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide boom).
Also at that time, Regional Victoria prices increased 66% on average.
The No.1 growth area in the five years to 2013 was Regional Northern Territory, which rose 38% at a time when price growth was subdued in most parts of the nation.
Most of the regional growth performances mentioned above put Sydney’s recent five-year boom (prices up 64%, according to these figures) in the shade.
There’s enough juice in those numbers to consider that perhaps the regions have something to offer.
And according to Propertyology’s Simon Pressley, one of the best-researched analysts in the nation, regional Australia is likely to lead over the next five years.
“The best performing markets will be throughout regional Australia — there will be some that will perform exceptionally well,” Pressley says. 
He predicts the markets that will rise in the near future are those that he refers to as “regional hubs”. These are areas with a diversified economic base as opposed to one-industry towns — a “mini capital city”.
“There are a number of regional cities that actually play the role of a mini capital city and they service the smaller towns that might have a population of 5,000 to 10,000. There could be half a dozen or a dozen within a region.
“They’ve got all the essential infrastructure that a capital city has got and a diverse economy. It’s just a smaller scale of it, and literally there would be 30 of those locations. They’re in every state.” 
I wholeheartedly agree. Right now the ones I like include Ballarat, the Hunter Region and Townsville, but there are many others.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Newcastle one of nation's strongest growth areas as regional outperforms capitals

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER 
Our quarterly surveys of sales activity always reveal key trends and the latest shows just how many growth markets we have in the different markets across Australia.
The smaller capital cities and in particular regional Australian are providing some compelling growth areas which provide an attractive combination of affordable prices and solid rental yields, compared to the now-fading markets in the biggest cities.
Here are four key findings from the new edition of The Price Predictor Index:-
1. Adelaide Is the Unsung Hero
Hotspotting’s latest survey confirms that Adelaide is the standout market in capital city Australia and is largely an unheralded star – although we note the latest report from realestate.com.au which lists Adelaide alongside Hobart as the fastest-selling markets in the country. 
Adelaide seems destined to always fly under the radar screen of national media, but it has a noteworthy property market. 
We reported in the previous edition that Adelaide had become the nation’s leading market jurisdiction, with 61 suburbs with rising sales activity. Our new survey reveals Adelaide has improved further and now has 71 growth suburbs. 
The next best city is the recovering Perth market, which has 49 (up from 45 in the winter survey). Canberra is also travelling well, with a solid (relative to its size) 22 upwardly-mobile suburbs. 
Brisbane remains lukewarm, but with promise of better things, and Hobart, which is currently the leading city on price growth, looks to have passed the peak of its up-cycle. 
Darwin remains mired in its downturn. As noted in previous reports, Sydney and Melbourne are well past their peaks and have few growth markets.
2. Regional Markets Out-do Their Capital Cities
Regional areas continue to out-perform their capital cities in the eastern states. 
Regional NSW is the only serious challenger to Adelaide as the market jurisdiction with the most rising markets and now has considerably more growth markets than Sydney. 
Regional Victoria is also pumping and is out-performing the fading Melbourne market. 
Regional Queensland is out-doing Brisbane, which is yet to fire. And Regional Tasmania is raging in the wake of Hobart’s mini-boom. 
This is also being reflected in price performance. The strongest price growth in the past 12 months has occurred in selected Regional Victoria markets, while Regional NSW has multiple precincts where double-digit annual price growth has been recorded. 
The strongest market in Queensland is the Sunshine Coast and we are seeing a return to solid price growth in recovering Central Queensland markets like Mackay. A recent REIQ report confirmed that Regional Queensland was out-doing Brisbane on price uplift and a CoreLogic analysis in November listed Regional Tasmania as a national leader on price growth.
3. Price Patterns Confirm The Importance Of Demand Data
Price performance around Australia in the past 12 months has emphatically confirmed the basic premise of The Price Predictor Index: that increases in sales volumes (buyer demand) in a location leads to price growth, but with a time lag. 
The time lag factor often means that price uplift continues for a considerable time after sales activity has started to taper off. 
Right now, many of the locations around Australia with the biggest price growth are what we classify as “plateau” markets – places where sales activity has passed its peak and tapered off at still-solid levels a little below the peak. 
A prime example is provided by the outer ring suburbs of Melbourne, where sales were previously rising strongly and have now tapered off – but prices are still rising. This is true for suburbs in the Whittlesea, Hume, Casey and Wyndham LGAs, where most suburbs have recorded growth above 10% in the past 12 months, including many which have recently topped 20% growth. 
This is also true for the suburbs of Greater Geelong and other areas just outside Melbourne, including Pakenham, Officer and Warragul in the south-east. New South Wales examples include the Central Coast and the City of Newcastle.
4. Big City Prices Stronger Than Media Suggests
Mainstream media is over-stating price decline in our two biggest cities, partly caused by dodgy data and analysis from some of the research companies and partly through the ineptitude of economists, who pontificate on subjects beyond their area of expertise, notably residential property markets. 
Our detailed analysis of recent activity in Sydney and Melbourne has found evidence of price decline in some markets, but not the wholesale large decreases claimed in daily newspaper reporting. 
In our analysis of Melbourne we say this: “A feature of Melbourne is the number of locations where prices remain strong … Our survey has found over 100 suburbs across the metropolitan area where median prices have recorded double-digit growth in annual terms, including 85 where prices have risen further in the most recent quarter. This finding contradicts media coverage, which suggests prices are falling across the Melbourne metropolitan area. The general theme, based on our survey, is that the top end suburbs are experiencing price decline, the middle market areas are holding firm on pricing and the cheaper areas are still rising.” 
Prices are weaker in Sydney, but we can find few locations with sufficient decline to justify claims that Sydney prices are down 8% in annual terms (CoreLogic figures). Few individual suburbs have fallen that much, as yet.
And I note that the latest figures from other research sources, including SQM Research, Domain and the ABS, record Sydney’s price decline in smaller numbers. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Four standout trends in the end of 2018 Australian property markets: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
For Michael Hickinbotham, Managing Director of South Australia’s number-one home builder, his company’s deep-seated family roots and commitment to innovation, quality, and value make the Hickinbotham Group a trusted household name today — some 60 years after the first house went up.  
His father and grandfather, Alan David and Alan Robb respectively, established the company more than 60 years ago. Today, it has built 40,000 homes and more than 50 community estates and maintains the founders’ mission of creating beautiful, quality homes for South Australians.
Hickinbotham tells me he proudly attributes the company’s ongoing success to its core values. 
“Above all, I believe in the concepts of innovation, creativity and value. It’s innovation and creativity that allow us to create value and, it’s the ability to offer superior value that underpins our success,” he enthusiastically shares. 
Hickinbotham Group is the only homebuilder to create and successfully manage brands for every segment of the market, from first home buyers to the middle market and all the way up to luxury homes.
But keeping the company at number one, Hickinbotham explains, takes tenacity and a passionate team that thrives on a sense of urgency. “When we decide to do something, we commit to it, and we do it as well as we can.”
He says, “To sell significant volumes of real estate you have to offer unmatched value. That starts with beautiful designs, great build quality, and fantastic service and is backed up by people who care.”
While Hickinbotham says luck has played a part of the company’s success, he also notes the company has continued to pioneer through significant challenges, including the South Australian State Bank collapse in the 1980’s, the Global Financial Crisis, and the residential building downturn of the mid- and late-2000’s.
The family business emerged from each crisis stronger, smarter, and wiser. 
South Australian Heritage
Hickinbotham’s father and grandfather were the first in the family to develop homes for sale, starting with a house in 1954 on Sturdee Street in Linden Park, an inner-eastern suburb of Adelaide. I understand that house still stands today and is in immaculate condition. 
These are humble beginnings, but both men had a vision to improve communities that still inspires the company’s success today.
His father was a renowned sportsman who represented South Australia and Geelong in football and seemed larger than life. He was well read and engaged with the world but determined and single-minded about the family business.
His grandfather —known to many as “Hick”— was a respected academic and the founder of Australia’s most famous winemaking course at Roseworthy, which is now part of the University of Adelaide.
The legacy of these two men drive Hickinbotham to try new things. 
“While I don’t like failures, I accept that if you don’t have some failures you’re not pushing the envelope far enough, you’re not testing your limits, you’re not growing,” Hickinbotham said. 
“With business you have to learn to take risks and to minimise risk where you can. You have to be willing to fail and, more than that, to face your failures squarely and learn from them.”
Creating homes, not houses 
Although a trained lawyer, Hickinbotham chose property. He could have also joined his family’s other business, which is wine. His older brother David oversees a business that produces excellent wines. Twice they have been ranked among the 100 best in the world by Wine Spectator magazine.
“I love real estate because it is so fundamental to human happiness,” Hickinbotham says. “Nothing improves lives like putting a roof overhead. Real estate is also a time-honoured way for people to build their wealth.”
“I whole-heartedly believe the family serves the business, not the other way around. The business, in turn exists to serve our customers and the community”.
And, as Hickinbotham confidently and proudly states, it is this philosophy and commitment that will continue to guide the business for the next generations. 
Hickinbotham Group was the first Australian developer to put telephone and power lines underground; the first to impose restrictive covenants on the felling of trees at a new home estate; the first to win a Civic Trust award for a housing development. They were the first to store run-off stormwater in the aquifer for later re-use. They were also the first to develop a privately-owned public school at a time when the South Australian State Government couldn’t afford to fund new schools. 
Notably, the company recently signed an agreement with Elon Musk’s Tesla to explore the deployment of Tesla batteries in its estates. And the company already puts solar on many of the homes it builds. 
Hickinbotham Group has even worked on plans to take an entire housing estate “off the grid” via photovoltaic cells and batteries. This means homeowners might be able to earn revenue by selling excess power back to the grid. 
Advice for First Time Buyers and Investors 
As a proud Adelaidean, Hickinbotham whole-heartedly believes his city is the best in Australia for first home buyers.
“You will get a lot more for your money in Adelaide than in Sydney or Melbourne,” he says. 
“Infrastructure here is less stretched. Prices are not as high, so there is a lower entry cost. Adelaide is beautiful and the perfect size at 1.3 million people.”
According to Hickinbotham Group, South Australia is a less volatile market to invest in because traditionally it hasn’t been subjected to the same booms and busts as other capital cities.
“I have also lived in London, Sydney and Melbourne, and I love those cities. But in Adelaide, I can take the family to the beach, or we can go to the wineries and small towns in the Adelaide Hills. Both are only about 30 minutes from the city centre.”
And, naturally, he firmly believes houses are a fantastic investment. 
“The secret to investment success in property is to understand that it is the land that appreciates, not the buildings”, he explains. 
“If you’re in a block of 200 apartments, when the land value increases, the extra value is divided 200 times. That’s the main reason why houses have been such a good investment for such a long time.”
GEORG CHMIEL, the chairman of Juwai, a Chinese website for buyers of overseas property, was speaking to Michael Hickinbotham in his regular column giving insight into the leading minds of Australian property experts.
He has spoken with LJ Hooker agent Bill Malouf about the ins and out of the Sydney market, REINSW president Leanne Pilkington about women in real estate, developer Larry Kestelman about developing your first property, Harcourts boss Mike Green on real estate investment secrets, Ironfish chief Joseph Chou on investing in today's market and liveability guru Cecile Weldon.
 
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Georg Chmiel chats with Hickinbotham Group's Michael Hickinbotham about the home building family business

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Here’s the dumbest question an investor can ask: is this a good time to buy real estate?
The question shows a fundamental and dangerous lack of understanding about property.
A much smarter question is: WHERE is it a good time to buy real estate? Because in a nation as large and as diverse as Australia, at any point in time it’s a good time to buy somewhere. The trick is finding those locations where it’s opportune to buy.
I find myself constantly explaining to consumers that there is no such creature as “the Australian property market”. People think there is because the media keeps telling them there is, aided and abetted by economists who see everything nationally.
The headlines keep proclaiming that “Australian property prices” are falling, because those who think nationally describe housing market growth or decline with a single figure to measure the entire nation.
It’s a ludicrous proposition and one that misleads and misinforms consumers.
So here we are again at the start of a new year and it’s opportune once again to tell people that the essence of success in property investment is understanding that we don’t have one market in Australia.
We have lots of markets and your objective is to avoid the ones which are in decline and locate the ones that are rising or will soon do so.
Fortunately, this is not difficult – so long as you can kick the newspaper reading habit and conduct proper research and acquire real knowledge.
If you’re willing and able to do that, you’ll be miles ahead of the herd and one of the relatively few who will succeed in this business.
If you’ve been searching for predictions on likely outcomes in 2019 – and you’ve been using mainstream media as your primary source – you’ll be massively confused and misinformed, because newspapers and other tabloid media like the ABC have featured only those who have forecast major and widespread price decline.
The vast majority of forecasters – the calm, sensible, rational ones like BIS, Domain, SQM Research, Propertyology and most of the major lenders – have predicted fairly optimistic outcomes in 2019 and 2020. But few of the major newspapers have published their forecasts.
A common theme among the credible forecasters is that Sydney and Melbourne will bottom out in the middle of 2019 and gradually return to moderate price growth, while the smaller capital cities will show growth this year ranging from moderate to strong.
Very few bother with the regions – which is a shame because the biggest price growth in 2018 was in regional areas and this is likely to be the case again in 2019.
One who does look at the regions as well as the capital cities and presents sensible forecasts based on research is Simon Pressley of Propertyology.
Like Louis Christopher of SQM Research, Pressley presents three scenarios in his forecasting, which relate to different outcomes with the lending environmental.
His scenario which assumes lenders returning to “sensible credit policies” in the first quarter of the year (which I think is likely) has Hobart again leading the capital cities on price growth, with rises of up to 10%.
He sees Perth making a solid recovery, with house prices up by between 4% and 7%. He also expects Canberra, Adelaide and Brisbane to be good markets with price growth up to 5-6%.
He expects Melbourne to bottom out during with the year, with only moderate price decline, and Sydney falling a further 3-6%.
I note that Domain published broadly similar forecasts for 2019 recently and I think Pressley is pretty much on the mark, although I think Adelaide will do better than he predicts and that Hobart growth will be less, because I think that market is past its peak. 
Propertyology believes regional centres in the resources states Western Australia and Queensland will be among the best-performing markets this year. Pressley suggests the Sunshine Coast and Cairns will lead in Queensland, with big improvement also in Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Toowoomba.
In WA he likes Albany, Busselton and Margaret River, with Pilbara towns strong also. As always, I urge caution with any market where the mining sector dominates the local economy.
In regional NSW he likes Wagga Wagga, Armidale, Tamworth, Bathurst, Parkes and Muswellbrook, while in regional Victoria he favours Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Warrnambool and Bairnsdale.
I can’t disagree with much of that. Propertyology and Hotspotting use different methodologies but we often arrive at the same conclusions.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
</body></html>

Where is it a good time to be buying property in 2019: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
This week I’m speaking at a seminar for real estate consumers in Canberra to talk about opportunities in the national capital.
I’ve just completed a suburb-by-suburb analysis on Canberra for the Price Predictor Index and have found that this market is strengthening. 
I’ve examined price data since the start of this century and I note that while Canberra is only a short distance from Sydney, usually its property market is doing something quite different to Sydney’s.
Canberra didn’t follow Sydney into a major property boom and now that Sydney is falling, Canberra is steadily on the rise. This, my research tells me, is situation normal.
Right now, Canberra has more growth markets than at any time since Hotspotting began its quarterly location-by-location surveys four years ago. The norm now in Canberra is suburbs where median prices have grown by more than 5% in the past 12 months, while only a handful have falling prices.
In this latest survey, I’ve have identified 26 suburbs where demand is rising, as well as 37 others where demand is steady and consistent. Unlike Sydney, the Canberra market has no suburbs classified as declining markets or as danger markets.
It is undoubtedly one of the steadiest markets in the nation. Indeed, I regard Canberra as the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia. 
The ACT is consistently ranked No.3 by CommSec in its quarterly State of the States report, which means that as an economy it ranks ahead of all states/territories except Victoria and NSW. It ranks first in several areas, including dwelling construction and housing finance. 
The latest ABS data shows the ACT ranks first in the nation on population (jointly with Victoria), rising 2.2% in FY2018. Vacancies are around 0.9% (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising faster than anywhere else and there is evidence of solid price growth. Many suburbs have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months and others have grown 7-8-9%.
Some of the recent forecasts from credible analysts suggest Canberra will lead the capital cities on property price growth. Moody’s Analytics, for example, is predicting solid price growth for Canberra this year and in 2020, both for houses and for apartments.
The results of our Autumn 2019 survey support that optimism. Since the start of 2015, demand has been trending upwards in Canberra. It hasn’t been a dramatic rise but over four years the graph depicting demand in the market has trended north – to the point where there is now a record number of suburbs with rising sales activity.
And the price data supports that. Our suburb-by-suburb analysis has identified 31 suburbs where median prices have risen by at least 5% in the past 12 months, and 22 others where prices are growing but by less than 5%. But there are only six suburbs where median prices have fallen by more than 5%.
There are 13 suburbs which have recorded double-digit growth in their median prices and these market leaders are spread across the Canberra metro area. 
But the Inner North precinct is the market leader on price growth. The median house price for Ainslie is up 34%, the median unit price for Watson has risen 30%, the unit median for Dickson is up 21%, while the median house price for O’Connor is up 20%.
The upper end of the Canberra market is going well. Markets with double-digit price growth in the past 12 months include Ainslie (up 34%), Dickson (up 10%), Garran (up 13%), Lyons (up 10%) and O’Connor (up 20%) – all suburbs with median house prices above $850,000. Suburbs in that market with price rises between 5% and 10% include Curtin, Deakin, Hughes, Narrabunda and Nicholls. 
In terms of sales activity, strong markets are found right across the ACT. As we often find, the strongest demand is in the northern suburbs, with Belconnen the leading district with six growth suburbs, followed closely by nearby Gungahlin which has five suburbs with rising demand.
 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Canberra the strongest real estate economy in capital city Australia: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
Regional areas are out-performing their capital cities in the eastern states. 
My research for the new Summer edition of The Price Predictor Index finds that Regional NSW has more growth markets than Sydney, Regional Queensland is out-performing Brisbane and Regional Victoria has more upwardly-mobile markets than Melbourne. 
Regional NSW is now the leading market jurisdiction in Australia. It has more growth markets than anywhere else in the nation. The Newcastle region and the Central Coast are the stand-out precincts, but there are strong markets right throughout Regional NSW. 
There are some strong growth markets also in the regional areas of Victoria (led by Geelong and Ballarat) and Queensland (the Sunshine Coast and Cairns).
The significant thing about this is that it highlights the great diversity of property markets around Australia – and that while high-profile markets like Sydney are no longer pumping, there are many other places where sales and prices are strong – and others that are just starting their run.
Economists create confusion for consumers by discussing Australia as a single market. But there are major differences among the various capital cities (the performance of Canberra has been quite different to that of Sydney, while Perth has been opposite to Melbourne). 
Markets move in cycles but there is not always a single situation for a major city. As we have seen with both Sydney and Melbourne in recent years, a boom cycle often starts in the inner-city and over a period of perhaps three years ripples out from the centre. 
Part of the way through the boom phase, the city’s Middle Ring suburbs will be the most active, with the strongest price growth. Late in the cycle it will be the affordable Outer Ring locations that are strongest. 
We are currently as that point with the two biggest cities: the LGAs of Hume and Wyndham City are the leaders in Melbourne, while the Camden LGA in the far south-west is the stand-out market in Sydney. 
In terms of sales volume in Melbourne, upmarket Hawthorn peaked in late 2013/early 2014; middle market areas like Blackburn and Clayton peaked in late 2014/early 2015 while outer ring locations such as Cranbourne and Broadmeadows hit the high points in 2017.
There are not only major variations of performance within individual cities - but a single municipality within a major city can have diversified markets. 
The Price Predictor Index report shows that the Northern Beaches LGA in Sydney has one growth suburb, nine plateau suburbs (sales have levelled off below the peak), one consistency suburb and one danger suburb (serious decline in sales activity). 
The City of Sydney has one rising suburb, eight plateau ones, two consistency ones and five classified as danger markets. 
This also reinforces a central message: that local conditions dictate property markets, not national factors like interest rates or constraints imposed by regulators.
Another highlight of the report is that locations that have previously featured in the Dirty Dozen section (danger markets to avoid) are now showing up as growth markets. 
Primarily these are regional centres strongly impacted by the resources sector. Three striking examples are Dalby in Queensland, Port Hedland in Western Australia and Singleton in NSW.
These markets suffered downturns when a rise in supply coincided with the pause in the resources boom, which impacted on housing demand. Now these places are recovering. 
Singleton and Singleton Heights combined have had quarterly sales of 36, 42, 48, 43, 58, 55, 58 and 93 over the past two years, a pattern that charts the recent recovery.
Other examples of this trend include Emerald, Moranbah and Mackay in Queensland; Muswellbrook and Mudgee in NSW; and Karratha in WA. 
Despite the signs of improvement, investors should remain cautious of such markets because of their volatile and high-risk nature. But it’s worth noting that even the most devastated markets recover eventually and that a long-term view is needed when buying in such places. They’re not for the feeble-hearted.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Outer ring suburbs, the strengthening regions or previously devastated mining towns? Ryder's choice 

<html><body>
One of the great absurdities of real estate research is the notion that you can encapsulate price growth for a major city in a single figure. 
The Greater Sydney area has a population of 4.82 million (2016 Census) and contains over 700 suburbs. They include markets as diverse as Macquarie Park versus Macquarie Fields and Newtown versus Campbelltown.
They’re not all doing to the same thing at any one time, nor moving at the same speed.
But the research houses would have us believe that you can distil all the sales activity in these contrasting places into a single growth figure that makes sense.
It’s crazy to even try, but that’s what they do. And media laps it up, so long as it’s presented in a neat little media release package that makes journalists’ lives really easy.
This may explain why Sydney house prices are growing at an annual rate of 7.4 percent if you believe SQM Research asking price growth index, or 4 percent if you trust the latest figures from Domain, or just 0.1 percent if you think CoreLogic is the bee’s knees in real estate data.
Melbourne house prices are growing at either 8 percent, 11.3 percent or 23.6 percent in annual terms, depending on your source of choice.
The Adelaide is rising, or falling; the Perth market is recovering, or not; and Canberra is up 5 percent or 18 percent – all dependent on which report you read most recently.
In my view, all real estate data is rubbery figures, to some degree.
And it’s adds an extra level of absurdity when economists, the least informed species about residential property on planet Earth, discuss Australian real estate as a single market. They all do it and media reports their misinformation daily – because if they have “economist” in their title they must be credible, right?
The reality is that we have a five-speed market in just the eight capital cities – and within those cities they are many different scenarios playing out.
We never have a situation in a major city where all parts of the market are rising (or falling) in unison.
Generally speaking, cycles start in a central point and ripple outwards gradually. The up-cycles in both Melbourne and Sydney began in the so-called prime suburbs and gravitated outwards over 3-4 years.
It’s a signal that the cycle has almost run its course when the areas with the most sales activity and price growth are in the outer-ring suburbs. We’re at that time right now with both our largest cities, with the Camden LGA one of the few remaining upwardly-mobile markets in Greater Sydney, and outlying areas like the Hume LGA and the Wyndham City LGA the strongest markets in Greater Melbourne.
What’s happening with our major markets makes a lot more sense when you chart them using sales volumes, rather than changes in price measures. 
The latter method is fraught with potential for aberrations, with the results dependent on methodology and other factors, as the figures presented earlier illustrate very clearly.
Sydney house prices are not growing at an annual rate of 4 percent, as Domain would have us believe. Some suburbs are growing more than that, others are at the point in the cycle where they’re not growing at all and some have values going a little backwards. A few areas, particularly those close to over-supplied apartment precincts, will have larger declines in values.
But none of that will be conveyed to real estate consumers – they’ll be given a single misleading figure encapsulating the whole city, only to be contradicted a few days later by a different number from another source.
But the sales activity figures (which we examine every quarter for The Price Predictor Index) seldom lie.
They’re revealing in all sorts of ways. For example, how about this question: when did the Melbourne market peak?
For in the swanky inner south-eastern suburbs such as Hawthorn (median price $2.1 million) and Canterbury ($2.9 million), it was early in 2014.
For middle market areas like Blackburn ($1.3 million) and Oakleigh ($1.2 million) it was the early part of 2015. And outer-ring precincts like Cranbourne ($480,000) and Carrum Downs ($500,000) hit their high points late in 2016 or early in 2017. Other outlying areas arrived at that point towards the end of last year.
It shows the many different market scenarios in play across the nation – and the degree to which economists and other commentators misinform consumers with their one-size-fits-all approach to real estate analysis.
</body></html>

Property price growth cycles start in a central point and ripple outwards gradually: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<div>Like many getting-a-bit-long-in-the-tooth Sydneysiders, I've increasingly been having recurring daydreams about selling a place at Bondi or in the inner west and trading it for a mansion at Maroochydore (or sometime it's a mooring at Mooloolaba). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Probably about once a fortnight I have these fantasises, on average, I reckon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then reality bites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wake up and find that Infrastructure Australia (IA) has released another report, which always brings me back to earth and reminds me why I invested in inner-Sydney property in the first place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever, IA's Future Cities report presents a range of scenarios.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a decentralised scenario which incorporates acres of building and hundreds of thousands of new homes in the south-west.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's a centralised scenario where everyone crams like crazy into zones close to the Central Business District (CBD), and to a lesser extent Parramatta.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's the medium-density scenario, which is a realistic mixture of the two, incorporating population growth across the city and on balance the most likely outcome. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The scenarios have one thing in common: none of them envisages a Sydney in 2046 with a population of under 7.34 million. </div>
 
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PdMnCv6NaPM/WpCTHx3DIuI/AAAAAAAAoic/PKX5PyrObPwoXRjOHlN760TUpD5B47wUwCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="240" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1324"></div>
 
<div>Although people are expected to live all over Sydney, the share of employment will remain heavily skewed to the CBD and city fringe, and to a secondary extent Parramatta. </div>
 
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aHGJZcD-GmI/WpDsUCuGnlI/AAAAAAAAois/t4fM1LPGEfcej_ytStllHGeERXSVygGMgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1010"></div>
 
<div>And there's a great deal of consideration of how people will get around with millions of extra people in essentially the same amount of space (as an investor, I've always gone for train links to the City or walking distance from the Sydney CBD). </div>
 
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nYjMyB370L0/WpDsgFvkAAI/AAAAAAAAoiw/tW2NMZ_pFIYAhZF5E69vfdV5TCOc_-q-ACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="456" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="658"></div>
 
<div>Nobody can predict the future, but one thing I will hang my hat on is a massive ongoing demand for rentals close to the middle of Sydney. </div>
From the horse's mouth...
Between 2017 and 2046, Australia’s population is projected to increase by 11.8 million people. 
<div>That’s equivalent to adding a new city, roughly the size of Canberra, each year for the next 30 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>About 75% of this growth will occur in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth is a central driver of this change. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the next 30 years, Sydney’s population is projected to increase by 2.4 million people, growing to be a city of 7.4 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the same period, Melbourne is projected to grow by 2.7 million people, to be a city of 7.3 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Between now and 2046, Brisbane is projected to grow by 1.6 million people and Perth by 2.2 million people, delivering cities of just under 4 million and 4.3 million, respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This means the Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will become cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While Melbourne and Sydney will become cities comparable to the current size of some of the world’s most significant urban economies, operating more like the Hong Kong, New York and London of today.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
</body></html>

Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will be cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
Price growth in the Top end suburbs can often be a signal for an emerging growth cycle in a city market. 
Certainly, the booms in both Sydney and Melbourne started in the most expensive areas and rippled out to the middle-ring and outer-ring areas over time. 
This is because real estate growth comes from events in the local economy. When the underlying economy in a major city starts to thrive, the first people to benefit are the business owners and others with above-average incomes - and that translates into purchases in the prestige suburbs.
So we think it is significant that, while prices remain suppressed in Perth overall, many of the millionaire suburbs have seen good price growth in the past year. This is also a feature in Adelaide: price growth overall has been moderate but prices have been rising strongly in the Top End suburbs.
It’s much less prevalent in the Brisbane market, which is struck in second gear and struggling to accelerate.
One factor evident in our latest analysis of sales activity and prices is that there is growth in the upper end of the Perth market. The latest data shows that several Perth suburbs with median house prices above $1 million have recorded strong growth in their medians in the past 12 months. 
This trend is widespread across the prestige market. Suburbs with strongly rising prices include Nedlands, Applecross, Cottesloe, Dalkeith and Bicton. 
Confidence that the upturn is sustainable comes from revival in the mining sector and the large numbers of jobs being created. As the WA economy improves, businesses thrive and business people become more confident in their real estate purchases.
This suggests that Perth generally can look forward to a return to price growth in the near future. This is supported by recent reports from Knight Frank, SQM Research and the Real Estate Institute of WA.
In Adelaide, while sources such as CoreLogic and SQM Research report annual growth of only 1-2% in Adelaide house prices, these generalised figures disguise individual areas which have done better.
It’s noteworthy that several millionaire suburbs have recorded major growth in their median house prices in past 12 months.
Glenelg South, Kensington Park, St Georges, Erindale, Henley Beach South, Hyde Park, North Adelaide and Hazelwood Park all have median prices above $1 million and have had median price growth above 20% in the past year. Other upper-level suburbs like Glenunga, Norwood, Parkside, Beaumont and Crafers have had growth above 10%. 
Some suburbs have had median price growth above 35% (and one above 40%) but based on small sales samples so we think this may be misleading.
In Brisbane, however, only a handful of popular inner-ring suburbs (e.g. Ashgrove, Paddington and Bulimba) have recorded double-digit growth in median prices in the past year.
Some examples of rising markets in the Top End of some capital cities:-
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/21/ryder2.jpg" alt="">
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News