<p>South East Queensland developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>’s entry into the Gold Coast apartment market has progressed from pipeline to market, with its Chevron Island project Bronze on Chevron now formally available to purchase ahead of a planned 2029 completion.</p>

<p>The 119-apartment development on Mawarra Street marks the Brisbane-headquartered builder-developer’s first residential play in the Gold Coast, following its expansion south from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> comprises a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom residences, with pricing starting from just over $1.5 million. The project is being delivered under Gardner Vaughan’s fully integrated model, with the group acting as both developer and builder, a structure it has consistently applied across its South East Queensland portfolio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367182]</p>

<p>Architecture has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jeremy-ferrier-landscape-design">Jeremy Ferrier</a>. The building presents as a single-tower scheme, with a focus on maximising outlook across both the Surfers Paradise skyline and the Nerang River.</p>

<p>Apartments have been planned with open-plan living zones extending to generous balconies, a response to the site’s dual-aspect positioning between river and ocean. Interiors follow a restrained coastal palette, with two colour schemes offered, and an emphasis on natural light and cross-ventilation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367181]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated across more than 1,250 sqm and includes a resort-style pool, gym, yoga lawn and rooftop entertaining areas. A function space with catering facilities forms part of the upper-level offering, alongside north- and south-facing outdoor areas.</p>

<p>Ground level will incorporate two retail tenancies, intended to extend the existing village character of the surrounding streets.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367200]</p>

<p>The project sits within walking distance of Thomas Drive’s established dining strip, while maintaining proximity to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Surfers Paradise</a> beach and broader Gold Coast amenity. The location, positioned on Chevron Island between the river and coastline, has increasingly attracted mid- to high-density development in recent years as the precinct evolves beyond its low-rise origins.</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan’s move into the Gold Coast was first signalled in 2025, with the group identifying the region as a natural extension of its operations. Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge described the expansion as both “strategic and natural”, citing demand for well-designed apartments in lifestyle-driven markets.</p>

<p>Construction is expected to complete in early 2029.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]</p>


Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan brings Bronze on Chevron to market as Gold Coast debut

<p data-end="198" data-start="61">One of the penthouses at Lily Lane, the latest stage of Carrington Place by Ellipse Property, has set a new local apartment price record.</p>

<p data-end="350" data-start="200">The four-bedroom residence, purchased by a local downsizer, sold for $5.75 million—around 75 per cent higher than the previous record of $3.3 million.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">Over 40 per cent of the first release of apartments at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> have already been snapped up just six weeks since it launched to the market.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="352">&nbsp;</p>

<p>Located at 32 Carrington Road, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> and designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane is directly opposite the Hills Showground Metro station. It offers a total 213 units over two 12-storey towers - a mix of 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments - with a ground-floor retail offering.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368352]</p>

<p>Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says around 44 per cent of buyers are&nbsp;owner occupiers, with 35 per cent being investors and 21 per cent first homebuyers.</p>

<p>“Developments of this calibre are very rare in the Hills District, and Lily Lane’s sales success demonstrates the depth of demand for over-sized apartments that genuinely compete with freestanding homes," Schulze says.</p>

<p>"We are seeing particular demand from downsizers who want to remain in the area but transition into spacious, high-quality apartment living."</p>

<p>On the penthouse sale, it says it shows buyers&nbsp;are prepared to pay a premium for scale, quality, and direct access to the Metro.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=368351]</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $745,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $990,000 with sizes from 75 to 132 square metres. Three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm,, with prices starting at $1,395,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The three remaining penthouses, spanning up to 262 sqm, are priced from $2.9 million.</p>

<p>Over 75 per cent of apartments include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries. Apartments are appointed with premium Miele appliances including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers, while larger residences also incorporate integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]</p>

<p>Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode Group</a>, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.</p>

<p>Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages, with completion expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 sq, of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]</p>


Ellipse sets Castle Hill apartment record with $5.75 million Lily Lane penthouse sale

<p data-end="223" data-start="65">Fresh off completing its Delano Crows Nest development, Lindsay Bennelong has lodged plans for its next project, this time turning its attention to the beach.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">The developer, founded by Clarendon Homes founder Peter Campbell, is proposing a 37-apartment scheme at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-25-ashburner-street-manly-nsw-2095">17-25 Ashburner Street</a>, Manly, positioned between the southern end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/manly-nsw-2095">Manly</a> Beach and East Manly Cove.</p>

<p data-end="431" data-start="225">Lindsay Bennelong called on local architecture firm Platform Architects to design the new building, given their success on The Finn, Lindsay Bennelong's current luxury apartment project on North Steyne.<span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-family:Aptos, sans-serif"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial"><i>&nbsp;</i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p data-end="372" data-start="143">According to the Design Verification Statement by Bridie Gough of Platform Architects, the proposal “relates to the current context but also the desired future character of taller buildings suitable to the new planning controls.”</p>

<p data-end="722" data-start="374">The site has been identified as a Low to Mid-Rise Housing (LMR) location, given its position within 400 metres of the Manly Town Centre E1 Business Zone. The LMR controls are intended to unlock additional housing supply in well-located areas close to public transport, allowing developers to seek increased height limits to support greater density.</p>

<p data-end="884" data-start="724">“The proposal seeks to provide this increased level of housing whilst being respectful of some of the smaller scale buildings also nearby,” the statement reads.</p>

<p data-end="1207" data-start="886">Lindsay Bennelong Development Director Leigh Manser said the project has been carefully aligned with the intent of the LMR controls. The proposal will significantly increase housing yield on the site, replacing four houses and 10 apartments, comprising 25 bedrooms, with 37 new apartments delivering a total of 94 bedrooms.</p>

<p data-end="1487" data-start="1209">“Sydney is in a severe undersupply, and delivering more dwellings and more bedrooms than what currently exists is exactly what the LMR policy is designed to activate,” Manser said, noting that nine of the apartments will be allocated as affordable housing for frontline workers.</p>

<p data-end="1843" data-start="1489">“We have already commenced discussions with our community housing provider to determine the rental levels that frontline workers can realistically afford in this location,” he said. “These will need to sit well below the standard affordable housing benchmark of 20 per cent below market rent, and that has been factored into our feasibility and pricing.”</p>

<p><img alt="Manly" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad03000f-19f9-48b4-b27d-e85ca800a1da" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%208.41.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=a.txHwCZgbCInlQ6QXbIrI.umvW1T.r8" /></p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The design of the building incorporates a wave-like indentation running through the façade, referencing the nearby coastline and anchoring the building within its local context.</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The&nbsp;Design Verification Statement says careful consideration has been given to the articulation of the building, ensuring the bulk is broken down to a more human scale through a defined four-storey podium."</p>

<p data-end="1825" data-start="1664">The scheme includes a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962">“The design ensures a high level of amenity, with apartments offering generous private open space, many with expansive views, and all with comfortable proportions."</p>

<p data-end="2146" data-start="1962"><img alt="Bennelong" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6a7f2812-72a1-4959-84b0-997e8cd88aed" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-30%20at%2010.15.50%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6iMxU3MkXmHVHAoNhYBjnqgka8CUZNbk" /></p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong</a>&nbsp;is currently developing Finn Manly, just three full-floor luxury apartments on North Steyne. They recently welcomed residents to its 81-unit Delano Crows Nest development, a&nbsp;carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.</p>

<p>Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a>&nbsp;is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.</p>

<p>The developer also has a development site in Maroubra.</p>


First look: Lindsay Bennelong's new Manly apartment development revealed

<p>Fifty-nine residences across 37 levels. No more than two per floor. With 80 per cent now sold, what remains at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-broadbeach-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline by Mosaic</a> is a short list.</p>

<p>Madeline was always conceived at a scale that sits outside the normal register of Gold Coast apartment living. The residences are half- and full-floor configurations, with the largest spanning more than 400 sqm, dimensions that place them closer to the penthouse end of the market regardless of where they sit in the building.</p>

<p>That scale is the organising principle of everything else: how the floorplans are laid out, how the materials read, how the connection between inside and outside works.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355941]</p>

<p>The interiors were developed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a>, the architecture practice&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mosaic-property-group">Mosaic</a> brought in as design partner for the first time on this project. The palette runs to natural stone, textured timbers, and soft metallics, materials chosen as much for their tactile quality as their appearance.</p>

<p>Light cleverly shifts across surfaces through the day, and the design is explicit about wanting that to be noticed. Full-height glazing runs across the primary living areas, and where the building faces east toward the ocean, those walls of glass are doing real work: framing a view corridor that the site's position directly opposite Broadbeach State School's playing fields keeps permanently open.</p>

<p>That outlook is the site's most consequential asset. In a suburb where new towers continue to rise, a protected view line is genuinely rare, and the Mary Avenue address secures it. Residents at Madeline will look out over open parkland rather than the rear of another building, a distinction that becomes more meaningful with each new development approved nearby.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=355939]</p>

<p>The private outdoor spaces are sized to match the residences themselves. Terraces on the upper levels frame uninterrupted ocean panoramas, and the planning ensures that living areas extend into those outdoor zones rather than treating them as separate attachments. The flow between the two is part of the design intent, not an afterthought.</p>

<p>Inside, the finish specification reflects the same approach. Rich stone benchtops, warm timber joinery, bespoke hardware, each element specified to hold up over time rather than read as a moment in a particular trend cycle.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150135 project_image_fid=3409]</p>

<p>Beyond the residences, the amenity offering extends that register. A lap pool and sun deck anchor the outdoor space, alongside a magnesium pool, cold plunge, steam room, and sauna.</p>

<p>A commercial-grade gymnasium, residents' lounge, library, and boardroom round out a programme that functions more like a private members club than a standard building amenity floor.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced under Mosaic's in-house building arm, with completion scheduled for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150135]</p>


Madeline by Mosaic delivers penthouse-level living across every apartment

<p>Developer Fortezza Group is the latest to take its new apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-belvedere-5-7-church-street-nelson-bay-nsw-2315">The Belvedere in Nelson Bay</a>, to the NSW Government.</p>

<p>Fortezza, predominantly a South East Queensland developer, is the latest to apply for State Significant Development&nbsp; status through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority, a pathway becoming favoured by developers to speed up the approval process.</p>

<p>They are planning 57 two- and three-bedroom apartments across 5-7 Church Street and 42 Donald Street, near d'Albora Nelson Bay Marina. The diverse apartment mix has sizes from just over 80 sqm to the largest three-bedroom penthouses that reach nearly 200 sqm.</p>

<p><img alt="Fortezza" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="090360e1-66d7-43ad-b686-aba81f173bf2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-29%20at%2010.22.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DMqF96eBZolqSAAAcugX0l66ueWng66m" /></p>

<p>Fortezza calls the project a "piece of Istria in Nelson Bay,"&nbsp;referring to the largest peninsula in the Adriatic Sea, shared by Croatia (90%), Slovenia, and Italy, which is known for its Roman history, Venetian-style coastal towns and inland hilltop villages.</p>

<p>They say the The Belvedere is strategically positioned at the apex of Nelson Bay, offering unrivalled views of the ocean, the bay and captivating topography of the area.</p>

<p>"Our commitment to maintaining the integrity of every view and sight line has been relentless," Fortezza Group says.</p>

<p>"Through extensive modelling and analysis, we ensure that each apartment enjoys the natural beauty of Nelson Bay, regardless of future developments. Each design element is carefully curated to harmonise with our European heritage, drawing profound inspiration from the Roman architectural marvels in Istria. The arches, the cascades of greenery and the stonework that define our project pay homage to the structures that once exemplified Roman grandeur."</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a pool, communal green spaces, an office and a coffee shop.</p>


First look: Fortezza Group takes The Belvedere, Nelson Bay apartment development, to NSW Government

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p>The latest internal migration data shows that an increasing number of inter-state and intra-state population movements are to either sea change/tree change regions or the outskirts of the capital cities.</p>
<p>Each year the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on internal migration across the regions of Australia.</p>
<p>Internal migration data counts the number of residents moving within the state as well as across state borders.</p>
<p>The tables provided within this report show the top and bottom 25 SA4 regions for net internal migration nationally over the 2015-16 financial year.</p>
<p>The first table shows that the Gold Coast saw the most net internal arrivals at 6,428 persons over the year. </p>
<p>The data series dates back as far as 2006-07 and the net internal arrivals of 6,428 persons is the highest on record and 39.4% higher over the past year. </p>
<p>It was also the first time since 2006-07 that the Gold Coast had seen the nation’s highest rate of net internal migration.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/05/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/05/Chart-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Of the top 25 regions for net internal migration over the past year, 13 were located outside of the capital cities; generally in areas either adjacent or close to capital cities. </p>
<p>These regions were a mix of sea change and tree change type locations.  Interestingly, each of these regional markets has recorded an increase in net internal migration over the year.</p>
<p>The data supports the strong price rises being recorded across many of Australia’s coastal and hinterland regions, especially those within easy commuting distance of the major capital cities.</p>
<p>None of the 12 capital city regions on the top 25 list were inner city areas in which high rise unit development is at unprecedented levels and density is increasing. </p>
<p>The capital city areas listed are slanted more towards an increase in greenfield development rather higher density new housing.</p>
<p>The second table shows the 25 regions nationally that have recorded the greatest losses from net internal migration over the 2015-16 financial year. </p>
<p>Sydney’s Inner South West recorded the largest migration away from the area over the year, losing a net 8,747 residents. </p>
<p>It was actually the 10th consecutive year that Inner South West has recorded the largest greatest loss from net internal migration.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/05/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/05/Chart-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>17 of the 25 regions listed in the second table were located in a capital city market.  The regions listed are generally established areas closer to the city centre. </p>
<p>These areas are either seeing greater high density new housing development or very little new housing construction. </p>
<p>The non-capital city markets are characterised as regional and linked to either agriculture or the mining and resources sector.</p>
<p>Looking at the broader capital city and regional markets, net internal migration over the year was strongest into: Regional NSW (11,827), Brisbane (10,149), Regional Vic (8,429) and Melbourne (8,270). </p>
<p>The net losses from internal migration were greatest for: Sydney (-23,176), Adelaide (-6,088), Regional WA (-4,433) and Perth (-3,270).</p>
<p>Net internal migration to Regional NSW, Melbourne, Regional Vi and Brisbane was the greatest it has been in at least 10 years. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, net internal migration to Sydney was the lowest since 2011-12 and it was the lowest in at least 10 years to Regional Qld, Adelaide, Perth and Regional WA.</p>
<p>Overall the data indicates that migration is gathering pace in select regions of the country, a number of which are sea change/tree change areas. </p>
<p>On the other hand, Sydney is increasingly shedding residents to other parts of the country and this is most likely linked to the high cost of housing. </p>
<p>Coastal, regional areas of NSW and Vic along with Melbourne and Brisbane appear to be significant benefactors of the deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney as an increasing number of people leave the city for more affordable locations.</p>
<p>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

It looks as if sea change and tree change is gathering pace: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>The number of new dwellings financed remained at a historically high level in April, but was slightly lower than in the preceding month.</p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Analysts are watching closely for signals of this construction cycle rolling over in a disorderly fashion, but up until April at least purchase activity had remained relatively robust. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">At the state level owner-occupier financing of new builds is tracking at historically high levels in all three of the most populous states. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><strong>First homebuyers to recede</strong></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">The number of first homebuyers has been sliding in recent years, following on from a huge spike during the financial crisis when a raft of incentives and grants were introduced. </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Some first time buyers have been opting to buy investment properties instead in recent times, particularly in expensive Sydney, in turn depressing the number of first homebuyers recorded. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">The annual number of first homebuyers has also fallen by 29 per cent in Western Australia since October 2013, with the Perth market seeing very subdued sentiment since that time. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">First homebuyer activity is likely to drop off between now and July 1, when new grants and stamp duty exemptions are set to be introduced in the states of New South Wales and Victoria. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span class="s1">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </em><a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2"><em>AllenWargent</em></span></a><em> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </em><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2"><em>blogger</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

NSW first homebuyers to dwindle until July: Pete Wargent

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<p>The latest housing data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that while lending to owner occupiers is fairly flat, demand from the investor segment has continued to stall. </p>
<p>When you dig deeper, the data shows that owner occupier demand is growing for new lending as refinancing stalls.</p>
<p>The April 2017 housing finance data indicated over the month there was $32.5 billion worth of commitments which was -1.6% lower than the $33.0 billion in commitments in March.  Relative to April 2016, the value of housing finance commitments was 3.6% higher in April of this year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the month of April 2017 there was $19.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments to owner occupiers which was actually the lowest value of lending to owner occupiers since November 2016.  There was a further $12.6 billion in finance commitments to investors which was the lowest value of lending to this cohort since September 2016.  Remember that the cooling of investor lending has largely occurred before the recent changes to investor lending policies have come into effect.  Investors have though been feeling the impact of greater interest rates increases than those implemented for owner occupiers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The $19.9 billion in owner occupier housing finance commitments in April 2017 consisted of $1.9 billion for the construction of dwellings, $1.1 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $5.8 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $11.1 billion for purchase of established dwellings.  The above chart highlights how the value of lending for purchase of established housing stock is continuing to lift while refinancing has continued to slow.  In fact, the value of lending for the purchase of established housing was at its highest level since November 2015 while the value of refinances for established dwellings was at its lowest level since May 2015.  The value of housing finance commitments for refinancing of established dwellings is now -20.9% lower than it was at its December 2015 peak.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Investors committed to $12.6 billion in housing finance commitments over the month consisting of $1.1 billion for the construction of dwellings and $11.4 billion for established housing.  Investor housing demand is slowing, due to a pull-back in demand for established investment properties.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at lending across the states and territories the thing that is immediately noticeable is how overweight investment lending is in New South Wales and to a lesser degree in Victoria.  In fact New South Wales is the only state in which new lending to owner occupiers is lower in value than lending to investors.  The state level data is not seasonally adjusted and given the large volume of public holidays in April the data is generally weaker than data from March, nevertheless when we look at the proportion of lending it shows that there is some emerging weakness in investor lending.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-5.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p>If you strip out refinancing to focus on only new lending, the majority of new lending in New South Wales is to investors while in most other states and territories investors are less than 40% of new lending.  Compared to recent levels the proportion of lending has slowed in New South Wales falling from 57.6% in January 2017 to 55.3% currently, it has also fallen in Victoria from 47.6% of all new lending in September 2016 to 46.8% currently.  The pull-back in lending to investors in the two most populous states which also have the hottest housing markets would be encouraging for banking regulators.  Of course, both of these states are still seeing investor participation which is well above long-term average levels and a further pull-back, which is anticipated, could slow the rate of value appreciation in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>Overall the data points to further weakness in housing finance demand from investors and from owner occupiers that are refinancing.  The investors slowdown is likely due largely so far to the higher interest rates being pushed to customers, with a crackdown on new interest-only lending yet to come into effect it is reasonable to expect further weakness in investor demand over the coming months.  In terms of refinance, this is potentially slowing because some of the lending policy changes are making it more difficult for people to refinance, particularly if it is with the intention to then take out an investor loan.</p>
<p>If, as expected, the weakness in housing finance demand continues, it is likely to lead to a slowdown in housing demand.  As a result this would likely lead to slower levels of value growth over the coming months, particularly once the tougher lending rules come into effect for interest-only lending.  This is even before considering the potential for additional costs due to the banking levy and the recent credit downgrading of the non-major banks which are likely in some form to be passed on to mortgagees.</p>
<p class="p1"><em><span class="s1">Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</span></em></p>
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Investor demand and refinancing by owner occupiers continues to stall in April 2017

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<p>There are two sides to a trade.</p>
<p>If you are buying an investment someone is selling it.</p>
<p>Ask yourself, then, a simple question: why are they selling?</p>
<p>It might be for personal reasons. </p>
<p>They could be selling some shares before financial year end to reduced a tax liability, for example.  </p>
<p>Or it might be for another genuine reason.</p>
<p>In the property markets, vendors often sell an apartment because they want to trade up and move into a house. </p>
<p>Or, maybe, they don't like the investment as much as you think you do, and that's why they selling.  </p>
<p><strong>Group think</strong></p>
<p>Group think can be dangerous.</p>
<p>When everyone is piling into an asset class or certain investment, this may not be a great sign for future returns.</p>
<p>Try to become a contrary thinker.  </p>
<p>This is not necessarily a skill you are born with, but it can certainly become a learned habit over time.</p>
<p>Question everything - not to the point of inaction, or sleepless nights - but don't simply blindly trust widely held beliefs. </p>
<p>Try to think of counter-arguments your investment decision, or list potentially dissenting views. </p>
<p>Think of some worst case scenarios, and what you would do or feel if they played out. </p>
<p><strong>Asymmetric information </strong></p>
<p>Could the seller know more than you?</p>
<p>Real estate is an imperfect market which offers amazing opportunities to buy below market value or add value. </p>
<p>But asymmetric information is a common hurdle that needs to be overcome via thorough market research. </p>
<p>Almost by definition, the vendor of a property tends to know more about the potential problems and challenges than the buyer.</p>
<p>In the share markets insider information is also rife.</p>
<p>People often like to think they know more than the market, but the truth is, they often don't.</p>
<p>Therefore, before you pull the trigger on an investment, think to yourself:</p>
<p>"Why are they selling?"</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Why are they selling? Pete Wargent

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<p>Melbourne still has strong numbers for price growth, but its up-cycle is nearing the end.</p>
<p>Sales activity, while still solid, is falling steadily and the number of growth markets is close the lowest levels since the up-market started.</p>
<p>The other clue pointing to the end of the cycle is that all the precincts that still have multiple growth suburbs are at the lower end of the market - most are outer-ring suburban areas. It’s now difficult to find inner-ring or middle-ring precincts with growth suburbs.</p>
<p>To demonstrate the steady decline in sales, a comparison of numbers in successive March Quarters shows this pattern: 33,109 (2015); 28,899 (2016) and 28,948. Sales in the June Quarters have been 38,031 (2015), 34,115 (2016) and 32,300 (2017).</p>
<p>In Hotspotting’s research for The Price Predictor Index, the total number of suburbs with growing sales activity has dropped from 96 in the Autumn report, to 60 in Winter edition and further to just 35 in the Spring survey.</p>
<p>These trends confirm a steady diminution in the strength of the market. And in terms of annual price growth, the latest data from CoreLogic has Melbourne ranked third on dwelling price growth behind Hobart and Sydney.</p>
<p>The remaining growth locations are in the cheaper areas, such as the LGAs of Brimbank and Melton (west); Hume and Whittlesea (north); Wyndham (far south-west;) and Frankston and Mornington Peninsula (far south/south-east).</p>
<p>But even these affordable markets are gradually declining in terms of the number of growth suburbs.</p>
<p>The leading precincts are Whittlesea and Wyndham LGAs. Whittlesea is consistently one of the city’s strongest markets, driven by affordability, infrastructure and jobs nodes.</p>
<p>We have identified four suburbs with growing sales momentum, down from six in the Winter survey. The suburb of Epping is one of the remaining strong markets, with sales moving from 115 to 145 to 135 to 160 to 172 in recent quarters. </p>
<p>In neighbouring Hume, growth suburbs include Broadmeadows, Roxburgh Park and Meadow Heights (where sales have lifted from 27 to 29 to 34 to 45 to 51 to 54 in the past six quarters).</p>
<p>Wyndham in the south-west is the other stand-out, led by Hoppers Crossing, Tarneit, Williams Landing and Werribee.</p>
<p>The Brimbank LGA has been one of the Melbourne’s most outstanding markets for the past 2-3 years. It still has three suburbs with rising sales momentum but a greater number of Plateau markets – further evidence of the wind-down in the market.</p>
<p>Cheaper markets in the far south/south-east, including the LGAs of Frankston, Casey and Mornington Peninsula, still have growth suburbs but, they are outnumbered by suburbs with Plateau-ing sales activity.</p>
<p>Upmarket and Middle Melbourne areas remain solid but most are dominated now by Plateau markets: they include the LGAs of Whitehorse, Moreland and Kingston. Very few growth suburbs remain.</p>
<p>There are also many suburbs where sales activity has dropped considerably, compared to 2014-2015 levels. They include Box Hill, Brighton, Brunswick East, Caulfield North, Chadstone, Clayton, Doncaster, Footscray, Glen Waverley, Hawthorn, Kew, Richmond, Rowville, South Yarra, West Melbourne and Windsor.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The worst performers are the inner-city unit precincts. We rank the CBD, Southbank and Docklands as Danger markets, as well as Carlton and Collingwood.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy"><span>Terry Ryder is the founder of </span><a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a><span>. You can </span><a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a><span> or follow him on </span><a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Melbourne CBD, Southbank and Docklands labelled danger markets

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">SQM Research reported that vacancy rates fell across most capital cities in the month of August 2017.</span></h3>
<div id="post-body-4819303965695860274" class="post-body entry-content">
<div> </div>
<div>The national vacancy rate of 2.2 per cent was marginally lower than the 2.3 per cent seen at the same time in the prior year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne (1.7 per cent) and Hobart (0.4 per cent) in particular are seeing sharp increases in median asking rents, while the vacancy rate in Adelaide was down to just 1.6 per cent from 1.9 per cent a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, Hobart has the lowest vacancy rate on record for any capital city, and both rents and prices are exploding higher.  </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/SQM1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Vacancy rates ticked down from July in Brisbane (3.1 per cent) and Perth (4.6 per cent) in August.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rental market Perth needs to improve for landlords - median asking rents are some 34 per cent lower than at their peak according to SQM's asking rents index. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile Darwin has recorded seven consecutive declines in its vacancy rate, suggesting that the rental downturn may finally be over in the Northern Territory. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Smoothing the last 6 months of figures suggests that the rental market is not deteriorating significantly in most capital cities. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/SQM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/SQM2.jpg" alt=""><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<span><br></span><span>Dwelling completions are expected to peak in early 2018, while immigration has picked up a notch.</span><br><span><br></span><span>SQM's Managing Director, Louis Christopher, noted:</span><br><div><strong> </strong></div>
<div>"We believe rents will likely rise at a faster pace 2018 than what has been recorded in 2017, thus far. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We now have mounting concerns for significant rental shortages in 2019 in Sydney and Melbourne”.<br><br><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The delinquents</span><br><strong><span><em><br></em></span></strong>There is some correlation here with the performance in mortgage delinquencies.<br><br>Moody's reported that, by the month of May, 30 plus day delinquencies in Melbourne had declined to just 1.35 per cent, and in booming Hobart arrears had fallen very sharply to just 1.45 per cent.<br><br>In Sydney, the 30-plus delinquency rate was as low as 0.84 per cent, which is as low as we will ever see for Sydney as a city of more than 5 million persons, while the ACT had a reported delinquency rate of just 0.90 per cent.<br><br>On the other hand delinquency rates increased to 2.20 per cent in Adelaide, 2.66 per cent in Perth, and 2.82 per cent in Darwin.<br><br>And helping to tick 30-plus arrears slightly higher year-on-year from 1.50 per cent to 1.62 per cent, delinquencies were higher in the regional markets of all of the resources states and territories, including South Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/MOODYS.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/MOODYS.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>Despite these increases, thanks to the Sydney and Melbourne weighting nationally delinquency rates remain well below the levels seen in 2011 and 2012 of 1.87 per cent and 1.81 per cent respectively.</div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
<p> </p>
</div>
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SQM sees rental shortages by 2019 

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<p>The results of a recent household income and wealth survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) are not necessarily what you’d expect according to CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher.</p>
<p>He said, “The results state that higher income households are more likely to be over-indebted than lower income ones and determined those households that are over-indebted and those that are not.”</p>
<p>The 2015-16 household income and wealth survey results, which includes household debt and over-indebtedness considers a household to be over indebted if their debt is either three or more times their income, or 75% or more of the value of their assets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.20%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.20%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Mr Kusher said, “On these measures the ABS considers 21.6% of households to be over-indebted, 51.9% of households to be not over-indebted and 26.4% of households have no debt.”</p>
<p>According to the results, households with the lowest disposable income are the least likely to be over-indebted while the fourth quintile households are most likely to be over-indebted.</p>
<p>The end results, according to Mr Kusher, is that households with higher incomes are less likely to be debt free and are more likely to be over-indebted than lower income households.</p>
<p>He said, “Lower income households are more likely to be debt- free compared to higher income households which is reflective of many lower income households having paid off their debt.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.28%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.28%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>“The data shows that 94.6% of households which are either not over- indebted (37.8%) or without debt (56.8%) have no persons in the labour force which is reflective of retirees or people that are in a position to choose not to work.”</p>
<p>Households with mortgage debt are more likely to be over- indebted than those households that either rent or own their home outright; only 3.5% of households that own without a mortgage are considered to be over-indebted compared to 47.0% of household with a mortgage and 9.1% of rental households.</p>
<p>Lone person households are likely to be those persons who are living debt free (45.9%), while single family households with a couple and dependent children (10.7%) are the least likely to be living debt free.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.36%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.36%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Interestingly, the data indicates that group households are among those least likely to be over-indebted (16.2%) as well as being amongst the least likely to be without debt (20.8%).</p>
<p>Mr Kusher said, “This probably reflects the fact that university students and young professionals are most likely to live in group households while studying and prior to purchasing their own home.”</p>
<p>The data also shows that households that are over-indebted spend 24.2% of all goods and services expenditure on housing costs compared to not over-indebted households spending 16.8% of their expenditure on housing costs.</p>
<p>The report shows that on average, over-indebted households spend more than double ($150.54) each week on their mortgage repayments than households which are not over-indebted ($73.44).</p>
<p>Mr Kusher said, “Households with no mortgage debt, most of which are retiree households, are least likely to be over- indebted.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.47%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.47%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>“On the other hand, higher income households with a family that have outstanding mortgage debt are those most likely to be over-indebted.”</p>
<p>“While you could say that families of working age with higher incomes are better able to service their debt, interest rate hikes or reductions in the value of their assets could have a significant impact on their ability to service their debt.”</p>
<p>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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Almost three quarters of Australian households are indebted: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Australia has created an extraordinary ~325,000 jobs over the past year, including a boom over the past six months the like of which arguably hasn't been seen in decades. </div>
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<p><br><span>The question is how? And where?</span></p>
<div><span>Greater Sydney (+83k), Melbourne (+59k), and now Brisbane (+46k) have each seen a drive in employment growth over the past year. </span></div>
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<div><span>Greater Sydney now has a monthly unemployment rate of only 4.46 per cent, and the annual average unemployment rate across the harbour city continues to decline, as it has for 3½ years now. </span></div>
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<div><span>That's been partly driven by apartment construction and the associated multiplier effect, and a swathe of infrastructure projects. </span></div>
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<div>Increasingly Hobart is firing up, adding +6k jobs over the year to August 2017, with the median duration of job search continuing to decline. </div>
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<p><br><span>Where else?</span></p>
<div>Gold Coast (+21k) and Sunshine Coast (+12k) have been other contributors to Queensland jobs growth over the past year, presumably driven by tourism, while Toowoomba added a cheeky +5k of new jobs on a net basis. </div>
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<div>Emerging from the resources doldrums, meanwhile, Mackay (+10k) and Townsville (+17k) have clearly turned a corner of sorts lately. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction still raging</span></strong></div>
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<div>Over the past quarter the greatest employment gains were to be found in construction (+64,600), healthcare &amp; social assistance (+48,000), and education &amp; training (+25,700).  </div>
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<div>Between them these three industries have created net new employment of +263,000 since August 2016, which really is a huge number. </div>
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<div>Alongside tourism, a boom in international students and education has been a shining light of the economy in recent times - at least in terms of quantity, if not quality.</div>
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<div>Offsetting this, some professional services and administrative employment has been scaled back. </div>
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<div>The construction employment surge needs to be viewed in the context of the preceding resources construction boom, which took construction employment to already unprecedented levels. </div>
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<div>And now total construction employment has elevated further - thanks to a combination of residential and infrastructure projects - to 1,168,000. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>The wrap</span></span></strong></div>
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<div><span>Sydney's economy is clearly relishing its stamp-duty-funded infrastructure boom.</span></div>
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<div><span>At the industry level, healthcare &amp; social assistance may well continue its structural uptrend, perhaps eventually accounting for ~15 per cent or more of the entire workforce. </span></div>
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<div>Construction now directly accounts for ~9.5 per cent of Australian employment. This is much more surprising, and it's never been higher.</div>
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<div>This is why, in my opinion, it may pay to be sceptical about all the casual chatter about rate hikes.</div>
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<div>Residential jobs account for about three quarters of total construction industry employment.</div>
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<div>So once the residential building sector inevitably slows over the next year or two, total employment growth could be winching itself down to earth with a big, clumsy thump. </div>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Sydney relishing stamp-duty-funded infrastructure boom

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<div>The latest population growth figures put an altogether different slant on Australia's assumed apartment gluts. </div>
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<div>In Melbourne, the risks have receded dramatically, at least for now.</div>
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<div>In fact, with the state's estimated populated growth apparently tracking at the highest level in six decades, it would be all but impossible for the market to become 'oversupplied' until this rate of growth in the headcount slows down. </div>
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<div>Now Queensland <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">really</span></strong> went on an apartment construction mission from 2014 forth, to the extent that there is a now a clear oversupply of units in some locations, particularly inner city Brisbane, with more supply still to come online. </div>
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<div>The latest figures show that although the glut will have an impact for some time to come, the market will right itself eventually.</div>
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<div>Indeed, the reacceleration of population growth to +75,400 per annum is exactly what Queensland's housing markets needed to help absorb the stock, while new apartment starts are now understandably and visibly slowing to a crawl. </div>
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<div>In Hobart, commencements have yet to pick up dramatically, despite electric growth in house prices and rents.</div>
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<div>Because the Hobart market demands houses and not apartments, in theory the supply response should come much more quickly (apartment projects can take ages to build, comparatively speaking).<br><br>And we know from previous cycles that the market has the potential to deliver much greater supply - but to date it hasn't happened.<br><br>Developers from the mainland are not that keen to get involved, perhaps, given the logistical challenges.<br><br>I haven't been down to Tassie for a while - and I got seasick when I last went - so I have no feel whatsoever for activity on the ground. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyer demand</span></strong></div>
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<div>I noted here previously that the 2016 Census confirmed an enormous surge in 25-34 year olds.</div>
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<div>Due in part to housing affordability challenges, many are not yet forming households, though they might begin to do so if capital city apartment prices do ever slide in any meaningful way.<br><br>
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<div>ANZ research this week suggested that there is significant latent first homebuyer demand, and ANZ believes that this could potentially keep an effective floor under prices, which is what I concluded from the Census figures back in June too.</div>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australia's assumed apartment gluts

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<p>At long last, I can say that Perth has moved into a recovery phase, after four tough years.</p>
<p>For the past 12-18 months, many industry people with a vested interest have been trying to talk up the market, creating false dawns of market revival.</p>
<p>I’ve been awaiting clear evidence and a month ago I wrote: “I continue to seek confirmation that the worst has passed for the Western Australia economy and the Perth residential property market. There are growing signs that this is the case.”</p>
<p>Now, having completed the research for the Winter Edition of The Predictor Price Index, I feel confident to confirm that Perth is over the worst and is on the way back.</p>
<p>The research found something that’s been missing from the Perth market for the past few years: suburbs where sales activity is growing and there are some prospects for prices to stop falling.</p>
<p>Our latest survey identified 12 growth markets, a rising number of suburbs with consistent sales and fewer “danger markets”. This is the best result for Perth since mid-2015.</p>
<p>Four precincts dominate this brighter picture of the Perth market: the Wanneroo and Joondalup LGAs in the far north and two solid middle-market areas, the Stirling and Melville LGAs.</p>
<p>Wanneroo is the standout location in the current Perth, providing four of the 12 suburbs with rising markets - Alkimos, Carramar, Clarkson and Yanchep.</p>
<p>Another northern precinct, the LGA of Joondalup, has been the steadiest area of Perth during the downturn and it continues to show solidity. It has seven suburbs with consistent sales rates - including Duncraig, Heathridge, Joondalup, Ocean Reef and Kingsley - while Sorrento is now a growth market in this precinct.</p>
<p>The municipality of Stirling stands out for sterling performance in the downturn. Two suburbs have rising markets - Carine and Innaloo - while this LGA has eight suburbs with consistent sales.</p>
<p>Another leader of Perth’s fightback is the Melville LGA in the southern suburbs. Both Kardinya and Leeming now have increasing sales activity, while four other suburbs are consistent performers.</p>
<p>Suburbs which have maintained solid sales rates amid the prolonged downturn across the Perth metropolitan area are noteworthy. They include Claremont, which has recorded between 55 and 67 sales every quarter for the past three years. Hamilton Hill has delivered between 58 and 69 sales every quarter for three years, while Willeton has managed between 80 and 88 sales, quarter after quarter, in the same time frame.</p>
<p>Another positive sign for Perth is the reduction in the number of danger markets (where sales activity has dropped to levels well below what might be considered acceptable in a “normal” market).</p>
<p>If the current trend continues, danger markets may disappear from the Perth property scene later in the year.</p>
<p>The existing declining markets are spread across the Perth metro area, but the area of greatest concern remains the inner-city precinct dominated by apartments.</p>
<p>These locations have high vacancies at a time when sales activity is still trending down. The worst-placed markets are East Perth, central Perth and Como.</p>
<p>The vacancy rate is 5% or higher in these locations and sales are well below the levels of a “normal” market. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy"><span>Terry Ryder is the founder of </span><a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a><span>. You can </span><a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a><span> or follow him on </span><a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
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