Article summary

<ul data-end="785" data-start="311">
	<li data-end="459" data-section-id="5hbcyr" data-start="311">Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at Skye Kangaroo Point, headlined by a two-storey sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm.</li>
	<li data-end="561" data-section-id="1p7lq8n" data-start="460">Early buyer interest suggests the residences could set a new Queensland apartment price record.</li>
	<li data-end="667" data-section-id="1y70z0l" data-start="562">The collection includes four move-in ready penthouses and the highly customised Skye One residence.</li>
	<li data-end="785" data-section-id="yvm0y1" data-start="668">The release caps one of Bri​sbane's most ambitious luxury apartment developments overlooking the Brisbane River.</li>
</ul>

<hr data-end="790" data-start="787" />
Pikos Group has released the five-penthouse collection at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye by Pikos</a> development in Kangaroo Point, with early buyer interest indicating the flagship residences could eclipse every apartment sale previously recorded in Queensland.

The collection crowns the luxury riverfront development with five residences, including four completed penthouses and Skye One, a two-level sky home spanning more than 1,000 sqm that will be tailored to its eventual owner.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374075]

Wanting to offer a fully customisable home, Pikos is offering Skye One as a blank canvas, allowing the buyer to work alongside the developer's design team to customise the home's layout, finishes and internal spaces.

The residence will feature a 247 sqm private rooftop terrace with its own swimming pool, sauna, steam room, outdoor kitchen and multiple entertaining areas overlooking the Brisbane River and CBD skyline.

The remaining four penthouses have been completed and are ready for immediate occupation, each offering four bedrooms, expansive open-plan living areas, soaring ceilings and private lift access.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374059]

One of the defining features throughout the project is its use of Roman Classic Travertine, with more than 20,000 sqm of the natural stone imported from Italy after being personally selected by Pikos Group Founder and Executive Director Pedro Pikos, interior designer Julie Williamson and third-generation stone specialist Mario Caucci.

Pikos said the penthouse collection represented the culmination of the company's long-term vision for Skye.

"True legacy isn't measured by what we build today, but by what endures tomorrow," Pikos said.

"Our ambition is to create places that become more valuable with time, enrich the lives of generations, and stand as timeless landmarks long after we've stepped away."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90059 project_image_fid=374060]

Williamson said the interiors were inspired by the natural character of Kangaroo Point and the Brisbane River rather than international design trends.

"Materiality tells the story of a place," Williamson said.

"We looked to the movement of the Brisbane River, the texture of the cliff face and the warmth of the surrounding landscape to create interiors that feel understated, enduring and unmistakably Brisbane."

Positioned above the Kangaroo Point cliffs, Skye places residents within walking distance of Howard Smith Wharves, South Bank and James Street while offering uninterrupted river and city views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=90059]

Joel Robinson

Brisbane's next apartment price record? Pikos unveils Skye's exclusive penthouse collection

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

A proposal to redevelop one of North Sydney's ageing commercial buildings has taken another step forward, with plans for a 38-storey mixed-use tower adding momentum to the long-awaited transformation of the Alfred Street precinct.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority-led State Significant Development pathway, the proposal for 271-273 Alfred Street would replace an underutilised commercial building with 95 apartments, ground-floor retail, commercial space and affordable housing. The proposal was submitted by&nbsp;Tara Shore Pty Ltd, acting for the John Taylor Family Trust.

While the project will deliver much-needed housing on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, it also represents another piece of a broader precinct that has spent years in planning limbo.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e1ce1b4-38df-48ab-992f-386814d86308" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=sC_h6w.A9VEoB98qsqowPlIoz__sBZBt" />

Despite its proximity to both North Sydney Station and the Victoria Cross Metro, redevelopment of Alfred Street has progressed slowly over the past decade as broader planning controls, zoning and building heights remained unresolved. The introduction of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway has provided a new avenue for projects to progress, allowing rezoning and development assessment to occur concurrently and unlocking sites that have long been earmarked for renewal.

Designed by Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder, the proposal seeks to do more than replace an ageing office building. The architects have positioned the project as the first stage of a wider public domain vision that would improve pedestrian connectivity and create a more cohesive mixed-use precinct as neighbouring sites are redeveloped over time.

The proposal includes a widened Alfred Street setback, new street trees, landscaping and outdoor seating, along with a landscaped through-site pedestrian link connecting Alfred Street with Little Alfred Street. The connection is intended to become the first section of a future east-west pedestrian network extending across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: New public domain vision underpins 95-apartment North Sydney tower on Alfred Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ea39ac3-46ad-4562-b4a0-b862e91c2dda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Alfred%20St%20da%20site.png?VersionId=K7umCd21KpetEFuVfsPlnJKhUOsmTTdV" />

The mixed-use tower would comprise retail space at ground level, commercial uses on level two and apartments from level three upwards.

In total, the development would deliver 95 apartments, including nine one-bedroom, 28 two-bedroom, 56 three-bedroom and two four-bedroom residences. Twenty-one apartments, representing 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area, would be secured as affordable housing and managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years.

Nine basement levels would provide 133 resident car spaces, seven motorcycle spaces and 111 bicycle spaces.

According to the Architecture and Urban Design Report, the public domain strategy is designed to transform what is currently an inward-facing commercial edge into a more active and connected pedestrian environment, creating a stronger relationship between the commercial core and surrounding residential neighbourhoods.

Office of Cortese &amp; Gilder has also prepared a broader public domain framework spanning neighbouring properties between 263 and 283 Alfred Street, arguing that a coordinated approach to redevelopment will deliver better public spaces, improved tower separation and a more connected streetscape as the precinct evolves.

The proposal comes at a time where North Sydney is slated for future residential growth. Commercial developer FiveX has residential plans for the neighbouring site at 275 Alfred Street. They've proposed a 39-storey mixed-use tower with 184 apartments, while Freecity was recently approved for nearly 300 apartments across a 51-storey building on Walker Street.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-freecity-gets-green-light-for-mixed-use-apartment-and-hotel-tower-in-north-sydney">First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-plans-39-storey-residential-tower-in-booming-north-sydney">First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney</a>

&nbsp;

Alfred Street the latest North Sydney pocket to be transformed by residential development

Buyers considering a residence at boutique Gordon townhouse development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lume-gordon-43-47-dumaresq-street-gordon-nsw-2072">Lume</a>&nbsp;now have another reason to bring forward their decision.

For a limited time, purchasers of a residence at Lume will receive a BMW iX3 50 electric SUV, valued at more than $120,000, as part of their purchase. The offer is designed to add value for buyers while complementing the lifestyle envisioned for the architecturally designed Upper North Shore development.

Scott Timmins, Development Manager at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/winim">WINIM</a>, said the partnership was created to provide buyers with a compelling reason to act.

"In today's market, buyers need a compelling reason to act now, and the BMW partnership was designed to create that catalyst. We wanted to add genuine value for our future purchasers. Choosing the all-electric BMW iX3 50 also reflects the values behind LUME, forward-thinking design, innovation and a more sustainable way of living. It's a premium incentive that complements the lifestyle our buyers aspire to and rewards those who commit early."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374893]

Delivered by WINIM in partnership with Burtonwood Investment Partners, Lume comprises 14 architecturally designed two, three and four-bedroom townhomes created for families seeking the space of a freestanding house with the ease of modern, low-maintenance living.

The three-storey residences, designed by award-winning architecture practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, have been tailored for families and multi-generational living, featuring private internal lifts, flexible lower-level spaces, generous open-plan living and entertaining areas, media rooms, and landscaped outdoor spaces with custom outdoor kitchens.&nbsp;

Inside, engineered oak flooring, bespoke dining joinery with integrated wine fridges and backlit bars, sculptural porcelain bathrooms, Parisi freestanding baths and Astra Walker tapware create interiors that balance functionality with refined finishes.

Each townhome has been designed to combine generous internal spaces with sustainability initiatives such as EV charging infrastructure, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>'s landscaped communal areas, centred around a restored creek line and native planting, encourage residents to connect with nature and spend more time outdoors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=269527]

Rothelowman's Gary Tsui said the architecture was conceived to respond carefully to its Upper North Shore setting.

"Our vision was to create elegant, uplifting homes that draw on and positively contribute to the local character through meticulously considered design and an interaction with the surroundings."

The communal landscape has been designed as more than an open space between homes. Arcadia's Ben Newell and Kate Phillips said the adjoining reserve provided an opportunity to create a distinctive natural retreat for residents.

"Just as waterways carve their way through Ku-ring-gai's landscape, a raised boardwalk weaves through the reserve, connecting the homes to this tranquil oasis."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7354 project_image_fid=374892]

Located just 300 metres from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/gordon-nsw-2072">Gordon</a> Village and Gordon railway station, Lume offers convenient access to Sydney's CBD while placing residents close to some of the North Shore's leading schools, including Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College and Knox Grammar. Lane Cove National Park, Gordon Golf Club and a range of cafés and restaurants further reinforce the family-focused lifestyle on offer, with the BMW iX3 50 complementing everything from local trips around Gordon to weekend drives and city commutes.

Construction is underway with completion expected in mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7354]

Boutique Gordon townhomes now come with a BMW iX3 50

Two apartments have sold for more than $10 million at EADE Byron Bay, setting some of the highest apartment prices ever achieved in the coastal town and underlining the growing appetite for luxury beachfront apartments in Australia's most popular coastal locations.

The $210 million project by Vitale Property Group has now secured more than $70 million in sales, led by residences that changed hands for $12.75 million and $11.75 million.

The record-breaking transactions reinforce the shift occurring in Byron Bay's premium property market, where affluent downsizers and lifestyle buyers are increasingly opting for high-end apartments over large beachfront homes.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eade-byron-bay-29-shirley-street-byron-bay-nsw-2481">EADE Byron Bay</a> occupies a rare 6,000 sqm absolute beachfront site on the corner of Shirley and Milton Streets overlooking Main Beach and The Wreck surf break, just 350 metres from Byron Bay's town centre.

The 25-residence development is the first beachfront apartment project approved in Byron Bay in more than a decade and is currently under construction, with completion expected in May 2027.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359521]

The project has attracted a mix of local Byron Shire residents downsizing from larger homes, alongside interstate buyers from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane seeking a permanent coastal lifestyle without compromising on space.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hayball">Hayball</a> and with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/alexander-co">Alexander &amp; Co</a>, EADE comprises&nbsp;10 garden apartments ranging from 284 sqm to 622 sqm, nine with private pools, five full-floor apartments and 10 rooftop residences with private plunge pools, expansive outdoor entertaining areas and uninterrupted ocean views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359527]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vitale-property-group">Vitale Property Group</a> Managing Partner Chris Vitale said the project's combination of scale, location and limited future supply was driving buyer demand.

"There isn't another beachfront holding in Byron Bay of this size and position that could be developed again," Vitale said.

"Buyers are responding to the scarcity and the irreplaceability of a site of this calibre and to floorplans they can't find elsewhere in the market.

"We are seeing buyers place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of the location. The sales achieved to date demonstrate that discerning purchasers recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay.

"Many are coming from larger homes in the Byron region, or from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and are after the space, security and convenience, without the upkeep of a house."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145590 project_image_fid=359523]

The Byron Bay project follows Vitale Property Group's delivery of the Mondrian Hotel and Private Residences at Burleigh Heads, with EADE continuing the developer's focus on luxury coastal developments.

Residents will have access to a resort-style swimming pool, gymnasium, sauna, cold plunge pool, concierge services and dedicated workspaces, while the project is targeting an 8-Star Green Star rating.

EADE Byron Bay is being exclusively marketed by Projx Australia in conjunction with WHITEFOX Projects.

WHITEFOX National Projects Director Phillip Rand said demand had been driven predominantly by owner-occupiers.

"We are seeing buyers at EADE place significant value on quality, space, design, resort-style amenities and the rarity of this location," Rand says.

"The sales achieved to date demonstrate that purchasers at this level recognise the long-term significance of what is being created at EADE Byron Bay."

Residences at EADE Byron Bay are currently priced between $4.75 million and $15.95 million.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145590]

Vitale breaks Byron Bay records with EADE sales flurry 

Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.

They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;

Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.

They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.

Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor

Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />​

The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;

Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.

With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;

Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<div>The December 2015 Residential Property Price Indexes figures confirmed the expected slowing in the final quarter of last year, although more timely private sector indices suggest that nationally prices began to rise again in the first quarter of 2016, perhaps by around +1.5 percent. Let's look through the macro trends from the 2015 figures in three concise parts. Part 1 - Market steadier in summer The total value  of dwelling stock increased only marginally to $5.9 trillion in the December quarter, rising by $482 billion or +8.9 per cent over the calendar year. This was broadly in line with capital city dwelling price growth of +8.7 per cent, plus a bit more reflecting the value of the new supply of new dwellings. The total value of dwelling stock has increased by a third or $1.5 trillion since December 2011, now tallying 3.5 times the size of nominal GDP. </div>
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<div>The weighted 8 capital city average indexes showed that both house and unit prices steadied in the last quarter of 2015, with house price growth (+9.3 per cent) outperforming the market attached dwellings (+6.7 per cent) over the course of the calendar year, a triumph for scarcity over affordability. </div>
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<div>
Part 2 - City by city While Sydney showed the expected moderate final quarter correction and Darwin prices tumbled, Perth saw its prices increase by +0.5 per cent leading a number of commentators to call the bottom on Perth's market cycle and to project moderate gains for 2016. Melbourne prices rose by +1.6 per cent to record strong growth of +9.6 per cent for the year, second only to another immense calendar year for Sydney at +13.9 per cent. Canberra went on a tear with prices leaping by +2.8 per cent in the December quarter (for +6 per cent growth in 2015). while Hobart prices also spiked by +2.5 per cent for an annual result of +3.5 per cent, mirroring more timely reports from other private sector data providers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most steadily consistent performer has been Brisbane, notching up another solid +1.6 per cent increase for its 14th consecutive quarterly gain and a +4.2 per cent annual increase. Since June 2012 dwelling prices have increased steadily by +17.1 per cent in Brisbane. Adelaide has followed a very similar trajectory with somewhat more suppressed nominal price growth. </div>
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<div>Over the past three years the total value of Australia's dwelling stock has increased by $1.33 trillion, with New South Wales (+$682 billion), Victoria (+$377 billion) and Queensland (+$143 billion) accounting for the bulk of the increase. </div>
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<div>Since December 2008 growth in property prices has been driven overwhelmingly by Sydney (+79.8 per cent) and Melbourne (+53.5 per cent), while Brisbane has recorded considerably less price growth (+22.1 per cent) over this timeframe. In fact since that time both Darwin and Canberra have fared better, although the Top End is now in correction mode.</div>
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<div>The ABS also now provides some interesting insights into the unstratified median price of established dwelling transfers, which also inferred a slowdown in Sydney house prices (in fact Sydney unit prices rose more than established house prices on this metric, jumping by +11.4 per cent to $685,000). This data series is most instructive in depicting just how far Sydney and Melbourne house price growth has outpaced that of its respective regional market counterparts. </div>
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<div>There are myriad ways to look at house price data, some of which involve inflation adjustments and carefully selected data points, while others use hedonic regression analysis, but the simple long run data from March 2002 shows the median transfer price of established houses to be as follows:</div>
<ul>
<li>Sydney up from $365,000 to $910,000</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Melbourne up from $241,000 to $621,000 </li>
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<ul>
<li>Brisbane up from $185,000 to $499,800 </li>
</ul>
<div class="separator">At the state level the mean dwelling prices tell a broadly similar story to the capital city narrative for the past year, with New South Wales (+$76,300) and Victoria (+$56,100) once again recording the greatest gains in calendar year 2015, while the ACT (+$35,000) and Queensland (+$17,600) also saw notable increases.</div>
<a href="/images/2016/03/23/R7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/23/R7.jpg" alt="">
 Part 3 - Supply response mixed 
<div>Finally, the data denoting the total number of dwellings at the state level shows how New South Wales added just +7,400 dwellings to its total stock in the December quarter. Nationally the total number of dwellings increased solidly by +162,900 or +1.7 per cent in 2015 to 9.62 million, having now increased by +578,600 or +6.4 per cent since December 2011. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Over the past four years, while the less densely populated territories of the Northern Territory (+10.2 per cent) and the ACT have added substantially to their stock of dwellings in percentage terms, the same has not been true everywhere.  Of the most populous states Western Australia (+8.9 per cent) and Victoria (+7.8 per cent) have co-ordinated the most material supply response as a percentage of established dwellings. However, the percentage increases in Queensland (+6.8 per cent) and in particular New South Wales (+4.6 per cent) have been less marked, reflected in their respective shallower gradients in the below chart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/23/R8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/03/23/R8.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This seems likely to in part to reflect stock obsolescence and demolition in the larger capital cities, where older dwellings are often pulled down in order to make way for new apartment developments. However, in some locations there does remain an elevated volume of apartment construction in the pipeline, which you can doubtless see for yourself if you frequent the inner city hubs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall this historical data reflected already known market trends with the restraints on investor lending propitious in tapering price growth towards the end of the calendar year. At the macro level we can expect price growth nationally in 2016 to be lower than the +8.7 per cent seen in 2015, with investor lending have been successfully curbed and more supply due to come online. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>House price growth has resumed in 2016 in parts of Brisbane and Melbourne, Sydney's market has become a bona fide dichotomy, with many of the inner ring suburbs firing, but the outer ring now recording funereal auction results. Naturally at the sub-regional level results are far more mixed and trends more nuanced.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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Brisbane racks up 14th consecutive quarterly gain: Pete Wargent

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They say that when you point the finger of blame at someone, three fingers are pointing back at you. This is a particularly apt analogy for posturing politicians who are directing accusatory digits in various directions on the issue of housing affordability.
The Federal Government has scapegoated foreign investors. The Federal Opposition has targeted negatively-geared Australian investors. Both are wrong and both know it. Politicians know that the people most responsible for fuelling high housing costs are the pollies themselves.
That’s why their response to this issue is the classic tactic, made famous by Yes Minister, of holding lengthy inquiries, punctuated with frequent press conferences, while declining to take effective action, other than to blame unpopular minorities. Foreign investors are the perfect scapegoats because they don’t vote. 
Both foreign investors and negatively-geared Australian investors are small minorities in the real estate market and have little or no influence on the high costs of housing in this country. You could exterminate both species today and housing would still cost the same tomorrow.
The fundamental issue is the hideously high cost of creating residential land and building dwellings. And much of the blame for that rests at the feet of politicians at all levels of government.
So while politicians are busily pointing the affordability finger of blame at others, they might want to consider the high cost of producing home sites as a relevant issue, with themselves as the major problem. 
In our major cities, housing blocks have become smaller over time but the cost keeps rising. In Sydney, according to one set of recent figures, the median price for a home site is $410,000, up 20% in the past year. Melbourne’s median has risen 23.5%. In Perth, you pay $300,000 for a housing block. 
The average situation across the capital cities is a 466m2 block priced at $265,000. 
Another set of figures came recently from the Urban Development Institute of Australia. Its State of the Land report earlier this month found that in 2010 a typical Sydney block was 524m2 costing $293,250. Today the size has shrunk to 454m2  but the cost has jumped 50% to $440,725.
That’s the cost people face before building a house. 
Over 40% of the cost of new dwellings is the taxes and charges imposed by various levels of government. Numerous studies have been done on this issue and they all arrive at pretty much the same result.
It means that a house-and-land package priced at $500,000 could be sold for $300,000 if you removed all the politicians’ imposts that inflate the cost.
You can be sure that politicians won’t discuss this, not while they can grandstand about clamping down on allegedly rich investors who allegedly sort the tax system, while continuing to milk their favourite cash cow, the real estate industry.
Here’s an example of how government behaviour causes high land prices. In Canberra, the ACT Government drip-feeds land to the market in a way that ensures there’s always a shortage and prices are kept high. 
A recent auction of new blocks in Throsby resulted in the successful bidders paying, on average, $108,000 above the reserve prices. One 540m2 block sold for $536,500. Nine blocks of just 315m2 each sold for between $340,000 and $356,000. 
The Canberra Times reported: “The ACT Government’s method of releasing small parcels of around 100 blocks at auction has been strongly criticised by advocates of affordable housing who say it artificially inflates prices, pushing land out of the reach of all but the well-off.” 
This Canberra situation is a microcosm of a national problem, where the high cost of land underpins all affordability issues. 
Similar things happen in Darwin. In Darwin’s residential market there are big spikes in sales whenever a rare release of residential land takes place.
New development suburbs such as Muirhead in Darwin, and Zuccoli and Johnston in nearby Palmerston, have project releases which create sales spikes which distort the overall figures. For example, total residential sales in Muirhead have been 44, 16, 22, 155, 10, 4, 32, 131, 17 and 82 in consecutive quarters over the past three years. 
This is an unnatural sales pattern causes by staged releases in new projects. Releases of new product are rare and sought-after. The authorities drip-feed homes to the market, keeping prices high. 
In capital cities like Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart, you can find plenty of suburbs where median prices of established housing are in the $300,000s and sometimes in the $200,000s. But you can’t in Canberra or Darwin. There are no cheap suburbs in these cities because of government manipulation of housing supply.
The developer lobby argues that similar things happen in the larger cities as well, hence the high cost of land in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, although the method is different. The groups that represent builders and developers argue that the core issue in the affordability debate is limited land supply.
Harley Dale, chief economist at the Housing Industry Association, has urged the Federal Government to show more leadership on housing supply and policy reform. Rather than tinkering with h policies, they should focus on increasing supply, he says.  Of course, it’s not quite as simple as increasing the supply of available land and all problems will be solved. Nor do I agree with the developer lobby’s favourite mantra that we have a major dwelling shortage.
We’re actually facing the opposite problem, a significant oversupply, in some sectors - the inner-city apartment markets. But we do have a shortage of affordable houses on land, created by limited supply, bureaucracy and politicians’ taxes and charges.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
hotspotting@gmail.com
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Foreign investors are the perfect housing affordability policy scapegoats because they don’t vote: Terry Ryder

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Melbourne is the No.1 capital city, still buoyant in contrast to Sydney’s steady decline. But South-East Queensland – the vast urban area including the Gold Coast, Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast – now has more growth suburbs than the Melbourne metropolitan area.
In simple terms, Melbourne has been strong for at least two years while many South-East Queensland markets are still quite early in their cycle. There are strong growth precincts right throughout this region, headed by Gold Coast City, but with Logan City, Moreton Bay Region and the Sunshine Coast Region all providing lots of rising markets.
According to our quarterly surveys of sales activity for The Price Predictor Index, the Gold Coast remains the clear national leader among the Local Government Areas of Australia. It has the most growth suburbs, by a wide margin, as has been the case in recent surveys. Among the standouts are some of the canal suburbs south of Surfers Paradise.
They include Burleigh Waters, where sales rates have risen from 85-90 per quarter 18 months ago to 140 more recently. Mermaid Waters has also shown a pattern of rising sales levels, while nearby Miami has increased sales from 56 to 69 to 81 to 87 to 95 in consecutive quarters.
The Moreton Bay Region in Brisbane’s north stands out as a market that has come from a long way back in the field to challenge Logan City as the No.1 market in Brisbane. If the pattern continues, Moreton Bay Region will be Brisbane’s market leader in the next quarterly survey.
Three suburbs in this LGA make our national top 30 list of growth suburbs – Morayfield, Deception Bay and Warner. Sales rates have doubled over the past two years in Morayfield, while sales in Warner over the past five quarters have been 57, 60, 75, 87 and 92. 
Logan City, which borders the Gold Coast to the south and Brisbane City to the north, led the revival of Brisbane markets in 2015 and continues to be the standout precinct (just ahead of Moreton Bay). It has more growth suburbs than any other Brisbane precinct, headed by Beenleigh, the LGA’s administration centre, where house sales have increased steadily over the past 18 months. Another standout suburb is affordable Shailer Park, where sales have increased steadily from 65 per quarter 18 months ago to 105 in the survey. 
Meanwhile, there are growing signs that Melbourne’s up-cycle is close to its peak. As in many growth markets, Melbourne’s cycle started in the near-CBD areas and over a couple of years has gradually rippled further out. During 2015 the leading precincts were mostly middle-market areas like the outstanding Whitehorse LGA (where some suburbs recorded 20%-plus growth in their median prices).
Now the outer-ring areas are rising to prominence, always a sign that the cycle has almost run its course. Among the Melbourne market leaders are the Casey LGA in the far south-east, the Brimbank LGA in the west and the Whittlesea LGA in the far north.
Growth is the Whittlesea LGA is headed by the suburb of Mill Park (median house price $480,000), where sales rates have been 87, 108, 109 and 140 in the past four quarters. Other growth suburbs in this precinct include Mernda, Wollert and Thomastown.
The LGA of Brimbank is an under-rated area in Melbourne’s west, centred on the suburb of Sunshine. This area has been stigmatised as downmarket in the past but its perception and market performance is improving on the back of good infrastructure and urban renewal developments. Deer Park is a standout suburb, with sales totaling 68, 97, 95, 100, 110 and 115 in the past six consecutive quarters.
That growth pattern is now being reflected in a steady rise in median prices.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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SEQ overtaking Melbourne in price growth prospects: Terry Ryder

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Bill Shorten believes there’s an affordability crisis in Australia. He believes he knows how to fix it. But I’m sure he doesn’t believe the tax policy he announced is the solution. What he announced is the smokescreen.
The tragedy for Shorten, the dead man walking of Australian politics, and the Labor Party, is that he is telling Australian households that he is going to force down the value of their homes. And that, in reality, the most likely outcome is that the cost of new housing will rise.
Short-term Shorten and his advisors don’t appear to realise that the high cost of new housing is the key to the affordability situation in Australia. And his policy will probably make it worse.
Firstly, the issue of an affordability crisis. Shorten apparently believes we have one. I believe we don’t.
The Housing Affordability Index shows that national affordability today is considerably better than it was five years ago. Sydney, following three years of big price growth, is the only jurisdiction that doesn’t have a demonstrably better affordability situation that it did in 2010. Everywhere else in Australia does. Even Sydney is marginally better off than in 2010. 
There were improvements in 2015 in many parts of the nation, reinforcing yet again that most of Australia did not have a property boom any time recently.
Jurisdictions which have a better affordability position now than 12 months ago include Perth (11% better than a year ago), Darwin (13.5% better), Hobart (7% better), regional WA (13% better), regional NSW, regional South Australia, regional Tasmania (6% better) and regional NT (10% better).
Affordability is essentially unchanged in Brisbane, regional Queensland and regional Victoria, compared to a year ago.
Sydney’s position is 4.5% less favourable, Melbourne 7.6% less, Canberra’s 9% less and Adelaide 2.6% less. But in each of those locations, affordability remains better than five years ago, even in Sydney (just). 
What we have from Federal Labor is what we got from APRA: over-the-top policy impacting the whole nation to attempt to solve a Sydney problem.
There’s going to be a major backlash against Labor once people realise the essence of Shorten’s proposal on affordability. He’s going into the upcoming federal election telling the electorate that the value of their homes is going to fall.
The essence of the tax policy announced on 12 February is that his proposed changes to negative gearing will somehow make housing more affordable. He’s not proposing to force down interest rates nor to lift average incomes, therefore the only way homes can become more affordable is for home values to fall. This would be seriously unpalatable for voters in the 70% of households that own their homes. It’s the ultimate election loser.
But home-owners need not worry. Shorten’s announced policies won’t cause home values to fall. They won’t make a single home cheaper in Australia because they don’t address the real causes of poor affordability. They have targeted the wrong culprits. 
And I’m quite sure Shorten knows that. Like most politicians, he’s not interested in addressing the real issues. He simply wants to give the appearance that he is. And he has achieved that by taking cheap shots at an easy target.
There are many problems with the announced policy. The first is that it’s based on a false premise - that the 15% or so of property buyers who are negatively-geared investors have a greater influence on property prices than the other 85%. (That 85%, incidentally, includes the biggest and most influential chunk of the buying market – home-buyers other than first-home-buyers – the people who have the numbers, the financial capacity and the motivation to pay high prices for homes).
Shorten says typical houses cost about three times average annual income 30 years ago and now it’s six times. He’s claiming that the small number of buyers who are negatively-geared investors are responsible for that change. He doesn’t provide any evidence to support this outlandish and quite illogical claim. He doesn’t provide it because it doesn’t exist.
He further claims that eliminating the tax claims of 15% of buyers will make housing more affordable. He doesn’t explain how that would happen.
But he is claiming his policy will make prices lower. If he’s right, that would be alarming for most voters. It would be also alarming for the nation, because the family home is the core asset for most Australians and the basis of their ability to provide for their retirement. 
This latter point is crucial. It’s the most important issue in the whole debate about negative gearing but is never mentioned.
Successive governments have told Australians they have to provide for their own retirement, because the Government can’t afford to fund the increasing numbers of retirement age people through pensions. We know that superannuation doesn’t cut it, so Australians need to invest to be self-funded in retirement. Governments need to encourage that. 
Negative gearing is one way to encourage people to invest - keeping in mind that it applies to all forms of investment, not just real estate. 
Eliminating it will stop many from buying real estate. Long-term it will cost the Federal Budget more than it saves - especially as the claimed savings are not great. Shorten’s figures suggest it will save the Budget just $570 million in the first four years, although I doubt he has considered the overall impact through loss of revenue to state and federal budgets – given that people buying investment property pay stamp duty, land tax and capital gains tax.
Shorten thinks that keeping negative gearing on new homes will cause investors to switch to the new product. But many won’t - because new homes are too expensive. On average, they cost $100,000 more than the equivalent existing home. That’s why 90% of investors (and most first-home buyers) buy existing properties rather than new. The negative gearing tax deductions don’t come close to making up for the price differential.
But if he’s right – and investors do switch to buying new homes – it will make new dwellings more expensive. If he’s right that prices are forced up by negatively-geared investors competing with home buyers, then switching all investors to new housing will create massive competition for a finite product and force up prices. Keep in mind that state government grants for first-home buyers are available only to buyers of new homes – and current Federal policy forces foreign investors to buy new properties, not existing.
So, if Shorten succeeds, we will have first-home buyers competing with Australian investors and foreign investors for new properties. Everyone will be trying to buy a finite supply of new homes, given that Australia is in the midst of a period of record creation of new dwellings and doesn’t need more. Shorten’s policy won’t make housing cheaper, it will make it more expensive.
And that brings us to the real issue in the affordability debate - the one that politicians including Short-term Shorten don’t want to talk about: the reality that government taxes and charges are responsible for the high cost of new housing. Multiple research studies have confirmed that more than 40% of the cost of new house-and-land packages are taxes and other government charges. Eliminate those and suddenly new homes are affordable to most buyers. A $400,000 product can be sold for $240,000.
So the real problem is not tax benefits flowing from government to the real estate industry - it’s the money flowing in the opposite direction, the taxes that are ripped out of the real estate industry.
Politicians never discuss this factor. They’re addicted to the massive amount of revenue they rip out of the real estate industry - over $70 billion in a typical year. They would rather blame unpopular minorities - a standard political tactic - than address the real issue.
The Federal Government, after two very long and expensive parliamentary inquiries which achieved little, has decided to make foreign investors the scapegoats. But forcing a small number of foreigners to sell back their mansions won’t make housing cheaper for first-home buyers.
Now the Federal Opposition has decided to make negatively geared Australian investors the scapegoats. It’s dishonest, deceitful and, frankly, disgusting.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Bill Shorten's Opposition makes negatively-geared investors the scapegoats: Terry Ryder

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Despite the higher than expected clearance rates over the early phase of the new year auction market, auction volumes are yet to reach the same levels seen last year.  
After the weighted capital city average auction clearance rate was tracking in the high 50 percent range throughout December last year, auction results have shown a higher than expected bounce, with the clearance rate holding higher than 70 percent over the past three weeks. The preliminary clearance rate of 72.3 percent has moved higher compared to last week (71.8 percent). 
This week’s preliminary clearance rate is lower relative to last year’s results of 77.3 percent. This week, 2,215 capital city auctions took place, compared to 1,400 last week and 2,372 one year ago. Over the next few weeks it is expected that auction activity will continue to ramp up which will further test the resilience of auction markets on higher volumes.
<a href="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Capital-city.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="702" height="527">
This week Melbourne’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 73.0 percent. Melbourne’s auction volumes continue to climb, up from 556 last week to 1,057 this week, which is similar to last year (1,074). On a year to date basis, Melbourne’s auction activity is just -1.4 percent lower than over the same period last year. This week, Inner Melbourne (234), Inner South Melbourne (157) and Inner East Melbourne (146) were the busiest sub-regions across the city, however the best performing region in terms of clearance rate was the Outer East, where 54 auctions were reported with a clearance rate of 79.6 percent. All regions with the exclusion of Mornington Peninsula (62.5 percent) saw clearance rates of at least 70 percent this week.
 
<a href="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="662" height="442">
After recording the highest clearance rate for the city since August 2015 last week (78.1 percent), Sydney’s preliminary results show that the clearance rate for the city has slipped slightly lower this week, currently recorded at 77.2 percent. This week 724 auctions were being tracked across the city, higher than the 513 last week, but lower than one year ago when 921 auctions were held across the city. Having recorded a relatively strong clearance rate for the past three weeks, it will be interesting to see if strength is maintained as auction volumes pass the 1,000 mark over the coming weeks.  
Preliminary results show that the performance of each individual sub-region across the city is diverse, with clearance rates as low as 50 percent In Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury (albeit on a very low volume of auctions with just 12 results reported) and as strong as 88.2 percent for the City and Inner South Region and 88 percent across the Eastern Suburbs.
<a href="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="713" height="485">
 
The preliminary clearance rate for Brisbane was 54.5 percent this week, compared to a final auction clearance rate of 48.4 percent last week and a stronger 63.6 percent last year. More homes went to auction this week (169) compared to last week (111) and relative to last year (119). This week’s preliminary clearance rate for the Gold Coast across the 18 reported results is 50 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="796" height="532">
 
69.9 percent of Adelaide auctions were successful this week, based on preliminary results. Last week a clearance rate of 75 percent was reported and one year ago it was significantly lower at 53.3 percent, however Adelaide’s clearance rate tends to move more than cities with larger auction volumes on a week on week basis.
<a href="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Adelaide.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/22/20160222-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="804" height="545">
 
<h1 class="title">Preliminary clearance rate edges slightly higher to 72.3 per cent while auction volumes remain lower than last year</h1>
<div class="post-meta">
by <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/shana-miller/" title="Posts by Shana Miller" rel="author">Shana Miller</a> on <abbr class="date time published" title="2016-02-22T09:33:13+1100">February 22, 2016</abbr>  in <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/category/auction-results/">Auction results</a>, <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/category/national-market/">National Market</a>
</div>
<div class="entry">
<a id="dd_start" href=""></a>
Despite the higher than expected clearance rates over the early phase of the new year auction market, auction volumes are yet to reach the same levels seen last year.  After the weighted capital city average auction clearance rate was tracking in the high 50 per cent range throughout December last year, auction results have shown a higher than expected bounce, with the clearance rate holding higher than 70 per cent over the past three weeks.  The preliminary clearance rate of 72.3 per cent has moved higher compared to last week (71.8 per cent). This week’s preliminary clearance rate is lower relative to last year’s results of 77.3 per cent. This week, 2,215 capital city auctions took place, compared to 1,400 last week and 2,372 one year ago. Over the next few weeks it is expected that auction activity will continue to ramp up which will further test the resilience of auction markets on higher volumes.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Capital-city.jpg" rel="attachment wp-att-6340"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6340" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Capital-city.jpg" alt="20160222 Capital city" width="979" height="735"></a>
This week Melbourne’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 73.0 per cent. Melbourne’s auction volumes continue to climb, up from 556 last week to 1,057 this week, which is similar to last year (1,074). On a year to date basis, Melbourne’s auction activity is just -1.4 per cent lower than over the same period last year. This week, Inner Melbourne (234), Inner South Melbourne (157) and Inner East Melbourne (146) were the busiest sub-regions across the city, however the best performing region in terms of clearance rate was the Outer East, where 54 auctions were reported with a clearance rate of 79.6 per cent. All regions with the exclusion of Mornington Peninsula (62.5 per cent) saw clearance rates of at least 70 per cent this week.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Melbourne.jpg" rel="attachment wp-att-6341"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6341" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Melbourne.jpg" alt="20160222 Melbourne" width="984" height="657"></a>
After recording the highest clearance rate for the city since August 2015 last week (78.1 per cent), Sydney’s preliminary results show that the clearance rate for the city has slipped slightly lower this week, currently recorded at 77.2 per cent. This week 724 auctions were being tracked across the city, higher than the 513 last week, but lower than one year ago when 921 auctions were held across the city. Having recorded a relatively strong clearance rate for the past three weeks, it will be interesting to see if strength is maintained as auction volumes pass the 1,000 mark over the coming weeks.  Preliminary results show that the performance of each individual sub-region across the city is diverse, with clearance rates as low as 50 per cent In Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury (albeit on a very low volume of auctions with just 12 results reported) and as strong as 88.2 per cent for the City and Inner South Region and 88 per cent across the Eastern Suburbs.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Sydney.jpg" rel="attachment wp-att-6342"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6342" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Sydney.jpg" alt="20160222 Sydney" width="983" height="669"></a>
The preliminary clearance rate for Brisbane was 54.5 per cent this week, compared to a final auction clearance rate of 48.4 per cent last week and a stronger 63.6 per cent last year. More homes went to auction this week (169) compared to last week (111) and relative to last year (119). This week’s preliminary clearance rate for the Gold Coast across the 18 reported results is 50 per cent.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Brisbane.jpg" rel="attachment wp-att-6339"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6339" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Brisbane.jpg" alt="20160222 Brisbane" width="969" height="648"></a>
69.9 per cent of Adelaide auctions were successful this week, based on preliminary results. Last week a clearance rate of 75 per cent was reported and one year ago it was significantly lower at 53.3 per cent, however Adelaide’s clearance rate tends to move more than cities with larger auction volumes on a week on week basis.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Adelaide.jpg" rel="attachment wp-att-6338"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6338" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/20160222-Adelaide.jpg" alt="20160222 Adelaide" width="971" height="658"></a>
Preliminary results show 46.2 percent of Perth auctions sold this week, with 13 reported results so far. In comparison, last week the clearance rate was 31.6 percent, while one year ago 46.4 percent of Perth auctions were successful.
This week auction volumes almost doubled in Canberra, with 104 homes taken to auction, compared to 59 last week. Despite the rise in auction activity, Canberra’s preliminary clearance rate has remained steady at 71.2 percent over the past two weeks. Canberra’s auction market has started 2016 in a relatively strong position, with four consecutive weeks of clearance rates above the 70 per cent mark, similar to what we saw one year ago.
There were 10 auctions across Tasmania this week. Based on preliminary results, five of the six reported auctions were successful.
 
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smiller-vwPjRHTkST

Combined capital city clearance rate edges slightly higher to 72.3 percent: Shana Miller 

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According to the just-launched CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index, home values are forecast to continue rising solidly in Sydney and Melbourne over the next decade. 
<a href="/images/2016/02/29/Modys.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/29/Modys.jpg" alt="">
 
<div>It sees annual price growth of more than +5 per cent returning for Perth by 2017, but subdued growth for Adelaide over the next two years, while Darwin prices are expected to decline in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of the capital cities, Brisbane is forecast to fare best over the next two years with home value growth of around +12 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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10 year home price forecast for Sydney: Pete Wargent

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The latest doomsday forecasts for Australian real estate call to mind the shameful history of overseas spruikers and local economists in getting it spectacularly wrong on house prices.
There’s nothing new in individuals with ulterior motives (usually seeking publicity for a seminar tour, new business venture or a book launch) getting acres of free mileage by predicting our markets will collapse. The 60 Minutes debacle is merely the latest.
I note that the nation’s worst forecaster of property trends, academic Steve Keen, has publicly admitted recently that he got it “hopelessly wrong” with his price forecasts. It’s about time - Keen famously predicted in 2008 that Australian house prices would fall 40% in 2009. Prices rose that year and in the years since Keen has rehashed his predictions in various guises with different time frames but with the same result – he’s been wrong every time. Now he has written a column for Business Spectator which says: “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices. Ask me how.”
But Keen has lots of company at the bottom when it comes to faulty forecasting, sometimes perhaps for dodgy reasons. 
One of the worst examples was US doomsday specialist Harry S Dent who came to Australian in 2011 for a seminar tour and sought (and received) publicity by predicting our home values would fall 40% in 2012. He advised Sydney owners to “sell their excess real estate”. We all know how well that forecast worked out.
But Dent was back in Australia two years later for another lucrative seminar tour and again went to the media for some free mileage. He said house prices would crash “some time in 2014”, with values falling at least 27% in Sydney and Melbourne. The market made a fool of him again.
Given the state of Australia media, I have no doubt that if Dent shows up again next year, he will make the same style of prediction and will be handed another round of massive national publicity.
Many others have come to our shores and used the Armageddon formula of generating publicity for their venture.
Little-known US spruiker Jorgan Wirsz suddenly became well-known in 2012 by forecasting a “bloodbath” in Australian real estate, with home values tipped to fall 60% in 2013. He also said land values would drop 90%.
Think for a moment what that means. He was suggesting that residential land in Australia would be almost worthless. Nothing remotely like has ever occurred in the history of the world, not even in the worst basket-case economy post-GFC. But Australian media chose to give these ridiculous claims credibility. And of course they were subsequently shown to be nonsense.
There have been many others, including another US spruiker called Jeremy Grantham who claimed in 2010 that the “Australian housing bubble” would burst that year. 
There also have been plenty of local commentators, mostly economists who don’t understand the dynamics of Australian real estate, who have forecast significant declines.
Morgan Stanley’s Gerard Minack said in August 2010 that property was 40% over-valued and the bubble was about to burst.
AMP’s Shane Oliver, who regularly calls it wrong on real estate prices, claimed in 2005 that homes were grossly over-valued and there would be no growth anywhere in Australia for the next decade. Those 10 years have come and gone, and I have to ask: How did that one work out for you, Shane?
Oliver was in the media again in June 2012 claiming that house prices were “over-valued’ and “chronically weak” and were heading for “a sharp fall”. Ooops, again.
Commonwealth Bank chief Ralph Norris said in November 2011 that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe had put Australian house prices at risk.
Prosper Australia claimed in August 2011 that Melbourne was about to experience “a US-style property crash with price falls of 30%”. (Those who suggest Australia must decline because it happened in the US appear to be unaware that US markets dropped for clear reasons, and those circumstances don’t exist in Australia. 
Michael Power of Investec declared in September 2012 that Australian house prices would fall by up to 20% by the end of 2014.
The Herald Sun ran the headline “Prices could fall as higher interest rates bite” based on comments by CommSec’s Craig James. (This notion that rising interest rates means a market crash is quite prevalent, but there is historical evidence to support the idea.)
Citibank economist Josh Williamson said in June 2013 that house prices would peak in March 2014 and fall thereafter. Propell National Valuers put out a media release in June 2014 declaring the end of the Sydney boom and, around the same time, Morgan Stanley analyst Malcolm Wood also called the end for Sydney, saying:” If you’re an investor, you’ve missed the boat.” 
Fringe dweller Leigh van Onselen, who has a lifetime of raging against real estate, stated in February 2012 that the “slow melt” in Australian house prices would continue. 
Another guerilla-style opponent of all things real estate, Kris Sayce, shouted in March 2011 that “the value of your home could fall 61% the minute interest rates start rising”.
The list goes on. And there’s a clear pattern. Since the start of the 21st Century, claims of markets collapsing, bubbles bursting and prices disintegrating have been an almost weekly occurrence. Journalists never seem to tire of doomsday stories.
They’ve all been wrong. And they’ve been wrong for clear reasons. Australia is not in recession, it does not have high unemployment, we don’t have a vast oversupply of dwellings nationwide and our banks don’t lend recklessly. We would need all of those circumstances to fall into alignment, as they did in the US around the time of the GFC, before our property markets would be in danger.
Property Observer would welcome a response from any of those named to give the context on their call.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Company at the bottom for faulty market forecasters: Terry Ryder

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<div>Building Approvals data revealed the expected rebound in February after the seasonal lull in January, but the downtrend is clearly in place from the trend peak of 11 months ago.</div>
<a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>House approvals have rolled a little, but the tailing off is more likely to be seen in the units, apartments and townhouses sector following an impressive burst since 2012. </div>
<a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
 Capital city analysis
<div>House approvals are faading fast in Perth in reaction to elevated vacancy rates, while Melbourne continues to approve the greatest number of houses by some margin, and as such may be the city with the greatest potential for overbuilding. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The last couple of months have been much slower for unit approvals in Sydney and Melbourne, which is now being reflected in the rolling annual figures below. After nearly a decade of under-building Sydney is now approving a decent number of attached dwellings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
 Dream over for high rise 
<div>This record approvals boom for Australia has largely been driven by "high rise" or four plus storey unit blocks, but this part of the approvals boom has noticeably slowed over the past four months. </div>
<a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA5.jpg" alt="">
 
<div>Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have each gone hard at approvals in the high density sector over the past few years, but all three cities have now passed their respective peaks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With APRA having insisted upon tigher lending criteria for investors building approvals will in all likelihood continue to slow from here, following a record run. Even at this well advanced stage in the construction cycle vacancy rates have been tightening in inner Sydney to just 1.3 percent, but cracks are starting to show in some of the secondary and outer areas where vacancy rates are above 2 per cent (and in some pockets higher again). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Building approvals boom all over bar the grouting: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released demographic data for the September 2015 quarter recently.
The data showed a continuation of the trend towards a slower rate of population growth at a national level. At the end of the quarter, it was estimated that there were 23,860,133 residents of Australia, an increase of just 0.3 percent over the quarter and 1.3 percent over the past year.
<a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-1-4-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-1-4-580x206.jpg" alt="">
The 12 months to September 2015 saw an additional 313,237 residents of Australia which is 7.3 percent lower than over the same quarter in 2014.  In fact, the annual increase in population for the country is the lowest it has been since the June 2011 quarter.
<a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-2-3-580x205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-2-3-580x205.jpg" alt="">
At a national level, there are two components of population growth, natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration.  Over the past year, there was a natural increase of 145,585 persons and net overseas migration of 167,652 persons.  As the above chart shows, the two measures are converging due to a sharp decline in net overseas migration.  Annual net overseas migration is now at its lowest level since September 2006, is -7.0 percent lower over the year and -46.9 percent lower than its peak in December 2008.
<a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-3-4-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-3-4-580x206.jpg" alt="">
Looking at population growth across the states and territories, the rate of growth has been strongest over the past year in Victoria at 1.7 percent and lowest in the Northern Territory at 0.3 percent.
The annual rate of population growth is above 1 percent in all states and territories except the Northern Territory, Tasmania and South Australia. In terms of raw number population increase over the year, New South Wales and Victoria are way out in front of all other areas with increases of 102,243 persons and 102,311 persons respectively. 
Queensland (55,232) and Western Australia (32,542) were the only other two regions to record annual population growth of more than 15,000 persons.  Across the remaining states and territories the annual population increase was recorded at: 12,396 persons in South Australia, 5,491 persons in the Australian Capital Territory, 2,159 persons in Tasmania and 826 persons.
The four most populous states accounted for 93.3 percent of total population growth over the year with New South Wales and Victoria accounting for 65.3 percent.
The mining states and territories in particular have felt the full brunt of the slowdown in population. At its peak in December 2008, Queensland recorded a population increase of 115,561 with annual growth now less than half this figure.  In Western Australia, annual population increases peaked at 88,156 persons in September 2012 and in Northern Territory the annual population increase peaked at 7,073 persons in March 2013.
It is also worthwhile at the state and territory level to have a look at the interstate migration trends.  As well as net overseas migration there is net interstate migration across the states and territories which affects population growth.
<a href="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-4-4-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/30/Chart-4-4-580x206.jpg" alt="">
Firstly if we look at annual net overseas migration, New South Wales (66,540) and Victoria (55,447) account for an overwhelming majority of the population increase.  In fact, 72.8 percent of all net overseas migration was into these two states which is the highest proportion since December 1984.
Elsewhere the number of net overseas migrants has been recorded at: 16,725 persons in Queensland, 10,255 persons in South Australia, 14,249 persons in Western Australia, 1,119 persons in Tasmania, 975 persons in the Northern Territory and 2,333 persons in the Australian Capital Territory. Annual net overseas migration into Queensland is at its lowest level since December 2000 and South Australian net overseas migration is at its lowest level since December 2011.
<a href="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-5-2-580x205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-5-2-580x205.jpg" alt="">
Turning to net interstate migration, movement between the states and territories is slowly starting to rise again; the above chart shows the annual movements between states and territories.  The chart shows that since 2003 there has been a fairly consistent decline in the proportion of the population moving interstate.  I have to admit this is a little surprising given that it coincides with the end of Sydney’s and Melbourne’s housing boom and is pretty much the beginning of the mining boom.  Although, the sudden slowing of interstate migration coincides with the substantial ramping-up of net overseas migration and with net overseas migration we are now seeing a pick-up in interstate migration.
<a href="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-6-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/5/Chart-6-1-580x210.jpg" alt="">
Over the past 12 months, Victoria and Queensland are the only two states or territories to have recorded a positive net inflow of population form other states.  Net interstate migration to Victoria was a record high 11,187 persons over the past year compared to 6,890 persons to Queensland. 
Net interstate migration into Queensland seems to be turning a corner after hitting a trough of 5,598 persons over the year to December 2014. 
Across the remaining states and territories there have been losses from net interstate migration of: -7,451 persons in New South Wales, -4,125 persons in South Australia, -2,721 persons in Western Australia, -180 persons in Tasmania, -3,019 persons in the Northern Territory and -581 persons in the Australian Capital Territory.  The net loss of persons from interstate migration is at its highest level since March 2014 in New South Wales, its highest since June 2009 in South Australia and its greatest since March 2003 in Western Australia. In Tasmania the loss of residents to interstate migration is at its lowest level since June 2011 and it is at its lowest level since December 2013 in the Australian Capital Territory.
The more up-to-date overseas arrivals and departures data indicates that net overseas migration is likely to trend even lower next quarter which will dampen the national rate of population growth further.  At the same time, the data shows that Victoria (which would seem to be a proxy for Melbourne) is the migration epicentre of the country attracting large numbers of both overseas and interstate migrants. 
Meanwhile the outflow of residents leaving New South Wales is picking up pace while interstate migration to Queensland is starting to build.
Perhaps we are seeing the impact of high housing costs in Sydney and fairly strong jobs growth in Victoria and Queensland starting to attract Sydneysiders to other parts of the Eastern Seaboard.  Weaker economic conditions in Western Australia are seeing residents leave with Victoria and Queensland the benefactors.  Meanwhile, Tasmania’s outflow of residents is slowing on the back of the booming tourism sector and a recent improvement in economic conditions.
Finally with population growth slowing we are seeing a better relationship between housing supply and housing demand.  After recently hitting record high levels, it is reasonable to expect that the slowing population growth will see property developers respond by seeking fewer approvals for new residential properties.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Population growth continues to slow due to ongoing decline in net overseas migration: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Macroprudential measures have had the desired effect, and the rate of home price growth has steadied.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>CoreLogic-RP Data's Daily Home Value Index may be a little seasonal, but the year-on-year figures show the slower gradient of growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nationally home price growth has slowed to +6.3 percent year-on-year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne (+8.8 percent), Sydney (+8.1 percent) and Brisbane (+4.5 percent) between them have accounted for most of the price growth over the past year.  While Sydney and Melbourne have been grabbing all the attention in recent years, Brisbane prices have just kept rising steadily and under the radar.  CoreLogic's index shows the median price for Brisbane &amp; Gold Coast having increased by $61,330 or +13.1 per cent over the past three years.  Although I have long been sceptical about the somewhat parlous state of the South Australian economy, Adelaide mediabn prices have also increased by just shy of +10 per cent over the same timeframe.</div>
<a href="/images/2016/04/11/RP1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/11/RP1.jpg" alt="">
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I was busy doing other things than charting data over the Christmas/New Year 2014-15 period, so actually have no idea what happened in the gaps in the chart.  Maybe there was a property crash and a speedy recovery, for all I know, not sure.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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