<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The latest annual taxation data shows that state and local government coffers were boosted by $52.5 billion in 2016-17 due to taxes on property.
Each year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases taxation statistics and the latest data for 2016-17 was released recently. Over the 2016-17 financial year, state and local governments collected $52.5 billion in taxes from property with the figure climbing by 5.9% over the year. The taxation take from property is now more than double what it was in 2005-06.
Property taxes accounted for an historic high 52.8% of all tax revenue for state and local governments, up from 51.9% over the previous year.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/4/taxes1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/4/taxes1.jpg" alt="">
Property taxes are broken down into two broad types, taxes on immovable property and taxes on financial and capital transactions. Taxes on immovable property include: land tax, municipal rates and other smaller taxes. Taxes on financial and capital transactions include predominately stamp duties as well as a few other smaller taxes. Taxes on immovable property were recorded at $29.185 billion over the year with the remaining $23.338 billion being taxes on financial and capital transactions. Over the year, taxes on immovable property increased by 7.9% while taxes on financial and capital transactions increased by 3.6%.
The table highlights the value of taxation revenue between 2006-07 and 2016-17 across each state and territory for land tax, municipal rates and stamp duty, which are the three largest sources of taxation revenue at the state and local government level. Probably the most notable change over the period has been the uplift in revenue, particularly from stamp duty, in NSW and Vic which reflects the strength of these housing markets over the past decade relative to other states and territories.
Between 2006-07 and 2016-17, stamp duty revenue in NSW has increased by 115% and it has increased by 114% in Vic. Revenue from land taxes have doubled over the period in Vic (153%), Qld (123%) and WA (125%) while revenue from municipal rates has doubled over the period in WA (125%) and ACT (184%).
In NSW, stamp duty revenue accounted for 49.1% of all property tax revenue in 2016-17 up from a recent low of 32.3% in 2008-09. It is a similar story in Vic where stamp duty revenue accounted for 42.6% of property tax revenue, up from a recent low of 36.5% in 2012-13. The cyclical nature of housing market transactions makes stamp duty a volatile source of revenue for state governments. Another way to look at this is in WA where the housing market has been weak for a number of years, stamp duty revenue accounted for just 28.5% of all property related tax revenue in 2016-17 down from a peak of 54.5% in 2007-08.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/4/taxes2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/4/taxes2.jpg" alt="">
From here, we are now seeing the combined effect of dwelling values and transaction numbers falling in Sydney and Melbourne along with a number of regional areas of NSW. Both the NSW and Vic governments have benefitted substantially from stamp duty revenue over recent years and it now appears set to fall over the coming years as the housing market weakens after a number of years of surging values.
With a volatile source of taxation revenue such as stamp duty that taxes the small proportion of individuals that transact property each year, moving away from a transactional tax to a tax on all physical properties seems to make a lot of sense. Especially considering transaction volumes remain well below their peak and stamp duty revenue growth is largely being driven by higher values rather than a greater number of transactions.
Of course the transition to a broad based land tax will be difficult and recent owners may have to be compensated however, a more guaranteed source of revenue for state and territory governments means that they can much better plan for the future rather than being reliant on dwelling values and transactions remaining high in order to boost revenue.
Over the second half of 2017 and into 2018 we have seen residential housing markets weaken with values and transactions falling, particularly in NSW and Vic. As a result we would expect over the current financial year that stamp duty revenue will fall and as a result so will total property taxation revenue.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Property tax revenue continues to climb: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21 months in a row.
The Australian economy is in a very different position to the US. While the RBA continues to expect that the next move in rates is most likely to be up, and we tend to agree, we now don’t see a hike until sometime in 2020. And the next move being a cut cannot be ruled out. This note looks at the reasons and what it means for mortgage rates, the $A and investors.
Five reasons why rates will be on hold into 2020
We have been looking for a rate hike in early 2019, but have now pushed that out to 2020 for the following reasons:
• First, growth is likely to remain below RBA expectations. A bunch of factors will help keep the economy growing: the drag on growth from falling mining investment is largely over; non-mining investment is rising; infrastructure investment is booming; and net exports should add to growth helped by strong global conditions.
However, against this housing construction is slowing and consumer spending is constrained with downside risks around slow wages growth, high debt levels and falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne.
Personal tax cuts likely to be tabled in the Budget will help keep the consumer going but are unlikely to offset all the drags. So while growth will likely improve from the 2.4% pace seen last year, it is likely to be to between 2.5% and 3%, below RBA expectations for a pick up to 3.25%.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%201.jpg" alt="">
• Second, wages growth and inflation are likely to remain low as growth is unlikely to be strong enough to eat into significant spare capacity in the Australian economy.
Some say Australian rates just follow those in the US but there has been a big divergence in recent years.
In 2009 while the Fed left rates near zero the RBA started raising rates only to start cutting them from 2011. And while the Fed started hiking rates in 2015 we continued cutting them in 2016.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%202.jpg" alt="">
There is good reason for the RBA to lag the Fed. Labour market underutilisation (see next chart) at 8% in the US is about as low as it ever gets whereas in Australia its around 14%.
If wages growth is only just starting to pick up in the US despite a much tighter labour market it’s no surprise that it will take much longer in Australia.
Continuing weak wages growth along with excess capacity and high levels of competition in goods markets will keep underlying inflation around the low end of the RBA’s 2-3% target for a lengthy period yet.
• Third, bank lending standards are going through yet another round of tightening as the household debt boom comes to an end, doing the RBA’s work for it.
Now it relates to policies and practices around borrowers’ income, expenses and total debt levels.
This has been driven by APRA which is shifting away from blunter constraints on lending to certain categories of borrowers (such as the 10% speed limit on credit growth to property investors) and is receiving added impetus now.
This will particularly hit lower income borrowers and high home price to income markets like Sydney and Melbourne.
Tougher checking of income and expenses and constraints in terms of the amount of loans going to high total debt to income borrowers will likely lead to a slowing in credit growth in the months ahead.
While a credit crunch is unlikely its hard to reliably predict the impact of tighter lending standards.
• Finally, house prices are slowing led by falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne with more weakness likely. APRA measures to constrain investor and interest only borrowers have worked.
These measures, combined with poor affordability, rising unit supply, falling expectations for price growth and the end of FOMO (fear of missing out) are pushing prices down.
The latest round of tighter lending standards will add to this, as will any move to lower immigration levels (and curtail negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount were there to be change in government).
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%203.jpg" alt="">
Capital cities other than Sydney and Melbourne face a much better outlook as they did not see the same boom in recent years.
However, we see prices in Sydney and Melbourne falling another 5% this year, another 5% next year and with further slight falls in 2020.
We are running around levels for price growth and auction clearance rates that in the past have been associated with the start of interest rate cutting cycles (in September 2008 and November 2011 – see the previous chart), not rate hikes!
The risks of a sharper fall in prices if investors lose faith, homeowners decide to reduce high debt levels and if the shift from interest only to principle and interest for many borrowers over the next few years creates problems needs to be allowed for. Raising rates when prices are falling will accentuate these risks.
As a result of these considerations, we have pushed our timing regarding the start of interest rate increases into 2020.
Of course, the risk here is that by 2020 the US economy may be weakening making it hard for the RBA to then start considering rate hikes. And of course, if the declines in home prices turn out to be deeper the next move could end up being a cut.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%204.jpg" alt=""> Won’t mortgage rates rise anyway?
Since the time of the GFC “out of cycle” changes in bank mortgage rates have been common.
However, the main driver of significant changes in mortgage rates remains what the RBA does with the cash rate – see the next chart.
It cut from 2008 and mortgage rates fell. It hiked from October 2009 and mortgage rates rose. It cut from November 2011 and so mortgage rates fell.
This makes sense as the banks get around 65% of their funding from bank deposits the main driver of which is the cash rate.
However, the remaining 35% can cause some variation as will regulatory changes which saw higher rates for investors and interest only borrowers recently.
There are two main pressures at present. The first is a rise in money market funding costs in the US and Australia of around 0.3 to 0.4%.
Given that only 10-15% of bank funding comes from this source its unlikely to have much impact. And the banks are unlikely to pass on the extra costs to owner occupiers on traditional loans given the Royal Commission, but banks could raise rates for investors and interest only borrowers.
Higher US bond yields could also place some pressure on bank funding costs but again this is likely to be modest, and probably unlikely to result in higher rates for owner occupiers on traditional loans.
The main thing for traditional borrowers to watch is the cash rate. If we are right, such borrowers will see pretty stable mortgage rates out to 2020.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/3/AMP%205.jpg" alt=""> What about the Australian dollar?
With the RBA likely on hold and the Fed set to keep hiking the interest rate gap between Australia and the US will go further into negative territory.
Historically, this means a fall in the value of the Australian dollar. The $A appears to be starting to break below the rising trend channel that’s been in place since 2015 and we see more downside to around $US0.70. A fall to below $US0.50 as we saw in 2001 is unlikely as commodity prices are likely to remain much stronger than they were then.
Implications for investors
First, bank deposits are likely to continue providing poor returns for investors for a while yet.
Second, as a result assets that are well diversified and provide decent income flow remain worthy of consideration. This includes unlisted commercial property and infrastructure along with Australian shares which continue to offer much higher income yields compared to bank deposits.
Third, Australian bonds are likely to outperform global bonds which are dominated by the US as US bond yields rise (on the back of Fed tightening) relative to Australian yields (which will be constrained by on hold RBA cash rates).
Finally, with the $A likely to fall further there is reason to keep a decent exposure to global assets on an unhedged basis.
Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Interest rates on hold until 2020: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%.
We have been interested to follow the various descriptions of the Bank’s growth forecasts over the last few months.
These have ranged from “a bit above 3%”; “central forecast remains for faster growth in 2018”; “growth above trend”; and today, “Growth to pick-up to average a bit above 3% in 2018 and 2019”.
In our preview of the SoMP, we speculated that the forecast would be modestly shaved to 3% in 2018 and 3 ¼% in 2019.
That would still be consistent with an average slightly above 3% and seems more likely than the 3 ¼%, 3 ¼% which was in the February SoMP. 
In its MYEFO in December the government forecast growth of 3% in 2018/19 and 2019/20 compared to 3.25% for the RBA. In 2018/19 and 2019/20 .
The Bank may choose to “go half way” given it is unlikely the government will change its forecasts in the Budget on May 8.
The other interesting forecast in the May SoMP will be underlying inflation in 2018. In February, the forecast was 1.75%, below the 2-3% target band and following 1.6% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017 – hardly a vote of confidence in the 2-3% target band.
Commentary in this statement is the same as we have consistently seen with the recent inflation report being described as “in line with the Bank’s expectation”.
That would tend to suggest that it will remain cautious around the inflation outlook and forecast 1.75% for 2018.
Given that the trimmed mean printed 0.5% for the March quarter, the implication is that the Bank does not expect any marked lift in the quarterly pace through 2018.
In the minutes to the April meeting, the Board noted that it was more likely that the next move in rates will be up rather than down.
That sentiment was not in the Governor’s statement in April and did not figure in this statement. In fact, the final paragraph in the May statement is exactly the same as the final paragraph in the April statement.
Commentary in previous statements around the labour market has been unreservedly upbeat. It was therefore interesting to note that the Governor recognised that employment “growth has slowed over recent months”.
Nevertheless, the Governor remains confident that solid employment growth will lead to a gradual reduction in the unemployment rate.
In April, the Governor referred to tightening financial conditions due to the rise in short-term USD interest rates and this observation has been repeated today.
Sentiment around household consumption “source of uncertainty”; housing markets “have slowed”; and the AUD (TWI) “remains within the range it has been in over the past two years”; is consistent with recent statements.
Assessments of the global environment are largely unchanged despite the increase in long-term US bond yields of around 25bps.
Conclusion
We will receive a much more detailed update on the Bank’s views in the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. Since the last Statement, housing markets have slowed further; financial conditions have tightened; employment growth has slowed; and equity markets have become more volatile.
All of these factors point to the Bank having even more scope to remain patient with respect to policy.
As we have consistently argued since mid- 2017, Westpac continues to expect that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2018 and 2019.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

No rate change in 2018 and 2019: Westpac's Bill Evans

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economy has strengthened over the past year. A number of advanced economies are growing at an above-trend rate and unemployment rates are low. The Chinese economy continues to grow solidly, with the authorities paying increased attention to the risks in the financial sector and the sustainability of growth. Globally, inflation remains low, although it has increased in some economies and further increases are expected given the tight labour markets. As conditions have improved in the global economy, a number of central banks have withdrawn some monetary stimulus and further steps in this direction are expected.
Long-term bond yields have risen over the past six months, but are still low. Equity market volatility has increased from the very low levels of last year, partly because of concerns about the direction of international trade policy in the United States. Credit spreads have also widened a little, but remain low. Financial conditions generally remain expansionary. Conditions in US dollar short-term money markets have, however, tightened over the past few months, with US dollar short-term interest rates having increased for reasons other than the increase in the federal funds rate. This has flowed through to higher short-term interest rates in a few other countries, including Australia.
The price of oil has increased recently, as have the prices of some base metals. Australia's terms of trade are expected to decline over the next few years, but remain at a relatively high level.
The Bank's central forecast for the Australian economy remains for growth to pick up, to average a bit above 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019. This should see some reduction in spare capacity in the economy. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is increasing. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy. Stronger growth in exports is expected. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption, although consumption growth picked up in late 2017. Household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high.
Employment has grown strongly over the past year, although growth has slowed over recent months. The strong growth in employment has been accompanied by a significant rise in labour force participation, particularly by women and older Australians. The unemployment rate has declined over the past year, but has been steady at around 5½ per cent for some months. The various forward-looking indicators continue to point to solid growth in employment in the period ahead, with a further gradual reduction in the unemployment rate expected. Notwithstanding the improving labour market, wages growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the stronger economy should see some lift in wages growth over time. Consistent with this, the rate of wages growth appears to have troughed and there are reports that some employers are finding it more difficult to hire workers with the necessary skills.
Inflation remains low. The recent inflation data were in line with the Bank's expectations, with both CPI and underlying inflation running marginally below 2 per cent. Inflation is likely to remain low for some time, reflecting low growth in labour costs and strong competition in retailing. A gradual pick-up in inflation is, however, expected as the economy strengthens. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to be a bit above 2 per cent in 2018.
The Australian dollar has depreciated a little recently, but on a trade-weighted basis remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.
The housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have slowed. Nationwide measures of housing prices are little changed over the past six months, with prices having recorded falls in some areas. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. APRA's supervisory measures and tighter credit standards have been helpful in containing the build-up of risk in household balance sheets, although the level of household debt remains high.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
<div class="box-enquiries"> </div>
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Household debt risks still high as property price growth slows: RBA Governor's May 2018 meeting statement

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The fourth meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia for 2018 saw no change in the official cash rate.
The central bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 19 meetings.
It was 20 meetings ago that they last came down. 
Almost every economist predicted a hold at the first meeting of the year.  
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless wasn't surprised with the hold decision.
"The Reserve Bank’s hold decision was widely anticipated, considering core inflation is only just nudging the bottom of the RBA’s target range at 2.0% and the labour market continues to show plenty of spare capacity with an unemployment rate of 5.5%," he said.
"Of course, the heat has also come out of the housing market, with CoreLogic today reporting another slip in national home values in April, largely driven by weaker conditions in Sydney and Melbourne.  
"Nationally, dwelling values have been moving through a controlled slowdown since October last year which has taken a great deal of pressure away from the RBA to lift rates in order to curb exuberance in dwelling investment. 
"Housing investment has well and truly slowed without any direct intervention from the RBA, highlighted by the fact that credit growth for housing is tracking at an annual growth rate of just 2.5%. 
He said that macroprudential policies, which have led to mortgage rate premiums and tighter credit policies, provided the heavy lifting needed to slow down investment activity.   
"While Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy will provide better guidance around the RBA’s thinking, financial markets are still betting that the cash rate won’t rise until July 2019. 
"Chances are that official interest rates are likely to be on hold for the foreseeable future, however it remains likely that the next move will be up, not down. 
"Importantly, mortgage rates could be under some upwards pressure without any change in the cash rate, considering wholesale funding costs are rising as US interest rates push higher. 
"Considering the record high levels of household debt and growing number of interest only loans transitioning to principal and interest terms, higher mortgage rates will test the housing markets resilience."
 
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RBA keeps rates on hold for record 19th consecutive meeting

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Stamp duty is a tax that discourages the buying and sale of homes. 
It provides the NSW State Government with a fairly reliable income.
There are two debates running ahead of the upcoming state budget. One is on the rate of the tax, the other on whether it should be phased out and replaced with another tax.
This week the Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW) really lashed out having long failed in their lobbying efforts to persuade the government to respond to the stamp duty bracket creep that has been in place for more than three decades.
It was time for the NSW government to amend the 1986 stamp duty brackets, according to the REINSW president Leanne Pilkington, who said the Government’s conduct was "nothing less than unconscionable”.
Pilkington noted the second reading to the 1986 Bill noted the increased rates for conveyances only affected properties worth more than $300,000 "and thus will not affect the average home purchaser”. 
The median house price in Sydney is now at $1.1 million, costing $46,000 in stamp duty.
Last financial year more than $7.3 billion was collected in stamp duty.
Up until February this year the government has raised $4.7 billion, so is on par with last financial year.
That's despite first home buyers being able to buy property up to $650,000 without having to pay stamp duty, and homes up to $800,000 seeing a discounted stamp duty.
Any adjustment to the standard stamp duty threshold rate would be simple, though likely at cost to overall revenues.
However the revenue could potentially go higher, and certainly be more stable, if the NSW government took the braver decision to phase in a broad based land tax that spreads the income across all land owners rather than only on those buying homes.
Many economists, and Ken Henry, author of the 2010 Henry Tax Review, have long argued that a broad based land tax is the most equitable way to tax property owners.
Earlier this month CEDA, the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, raised the issue in its report on inequality, How unequal? Insights on inequality. 
Unlike stamp duty which imposes a huge up-front financial burden upon only home buyers, a broad-based land tax, paid annually and spread over a wider base of people, provides a steady income stream to government to fund infrastructure.
It also would not stymie listings because many more homes would be listed by elderly downsizers if they weren't facing the repurchasing stamp duty burden.
John Daley, the chief executive of independent think tank the Grattan Institute, calculates an annual tax of $1 per every $1000 of a home's value would cost the median Sydney household $845 a year in tax.
I would however question the estimate due to the low reliability of NSW land valuations, which remain a flawed system. Any shift would require a fresh equitable modern revaluation of the state.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Is it time to consider a wider land tax?

<html><body>The cash rate is likely to remain untouched at the next board meeting tomorrow (01/04/2018), but increased rates from the US Federal Reserve may trigger out-of-cycle rate hikes within the Australian lending market, according to <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=3dd987276e&amp;e=58cd8ffd03" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">finder.com.au</a> research. When asked to predict the cash rate decision for May 2018, 97% (29/30) members of the <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=c608319a35&amp;e=58cd8ffd03" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">finder.com.au RBA survey</a> forecast no change. Experts and economists believe a mixed economic climate and low inflation are the main catalysts behind this expected monetary policy decision.  Eighty-seven percent of economists who weighed in on the direction of the next rate move believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will push the cash rate upwards. Economists were also asked to indicate exactly when the next cash rate change may happen.  Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says the estimated time of a rate movement is creeping forward. “Of the seventeen economists who specified a date for an upward rate movement, fourteen of them (82%) don't expect this to happen until 2019.” “We could be looking at a stagnant cash rate for the rest of the year, at least,” he says. An Australian online bank recently lifted interest rates out-of-cycle for owner-occupiers and investors, citing increased funding costs as a result of rising US interest rates. When asked about this, most panellists (14, 78%) from the survey are expecting other banks to follow suit. “Increased international lending costs may force banks to increase rates for home loan customers out-of-cycle, even if the cash rate doesn’t budge. “The days of super-low interest may be over for borrowers sooner than expected. “Brace yourself for out-of-cycle rate hikes, especially if the US Federal Reserve lifts rates again,” Mr Cooke says. When considering the broader economic outlook, household debt was pinpointed as an area of concern in finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker. Of the 17 panellists who participated, none had a positive outlook for household debt.  In fact, 53% of respondents reported a negative outlook on household debt. “With household debt at an all-time high, this does not bode well for stressed borrowers,” Mr Cooke says. On the other hand, the highest percentage of positive sentiment was given to employment (60%) followed by wage growth (35%) and housing affordability (21%). “This optimism for future employment has likely been fostered by government support. “Employment was a key part of the 2017-18 budget with a focus on helping disadvantaged members of society such as parents, Indigenous Australians and older people, find employment opportunities. “Initiatives such as ParentsNext and Closing the Gap are two examples of this, and it’s likely employment and job creation will remain a central theme in the 2018-19 budget, due to be released next Tuesday (08/05/2018),” Mr Cooke says. Here’s what our experts had to say: Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA will keep the cash rate steady at 1.50% at their next meeting. Inflation is soft, property prices are easing, and employment growth looks to be slowing down, so we are still of a view that the next move will be a cut, though this will take some time to come through." Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "Strong business conditions and employment, rising non-mining investment, strong global growth and the RBA's own forecasts argue against a cut but low inflation and wages growth, risks around the outlook for consumer spending, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets and tightening bank lending standards argue against a hike. So the RBA is likely to remain on hold." Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): " The fundamentals do not yet justify a change." John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "Economy still mixed Household debt constraint" Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold): "Muddle-through economy, inflation at low end of target band" Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): "Economic growth and inflation still aren't strong enough to warrant higher interest rates" Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "Inflation is low, the downtrend in unemployment appears to have stalled and the RBA is emphasising ‘patience’." Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): "None of the data released since the last meeting, nor anything else that has occurred since then, will have altered the RBA's assessment of the economic outlook sufficiently to prompt a change in its view that current monetary policy settings are appropriate for the time being." Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): "The RBA knows that pressure from home price rises is beginning to stabilise, however, it's still too soon to move on the cash rate with so many borrowers heavily exposed to rising rates and inflation still low." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "Insufficient traction or momentum in the economy to consider any tightening for the year" Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "No real inflationary pressures, strong jobs market." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "The economy is tracking along the RBA's own projections, however, private demand is picking up only gradually and consequently inflationary pressures remain modest. Further strong labour market outcomes have not as yet prompted a discernible acceleration of broad-based wages growth that would underpin an inflationary pulse. The RBA has little cause to shift its policy stance as a result. " Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "Month on month no significant changes to require changes in policy rate." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "The fundamentals have remained relatively static, meaning the RBA has no impetus to adjust interest rates at this time. There’s a strong argument to leave the cash rate unchanged for the foreseeable future given stagnant house prices, the marked drop in investor lending and other macro challenges to the economy, especially when the banks cannot be trusted not to hike rates independently." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "Inflation and wages growth remain too soft to see any movement in the cash rate." John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA will want to see inflation and wages improve and lower unemployment before making any changes." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "RBA  Governor Philip Lowe has warned the next shift in the official cash rate will be up rather than down, but there is no reason for this to occur until there is a pick up in economic growth and wages. Both of these are likely to be gradual so there is no case for any near-term change in policy." Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "The RBA have signaled that they will keep rates at low levels for a while longer, but that the next move is likely to be upwards." Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "When the economy can better absorb the impact of an increase and inflation is at 2% or near that target level, Gov Lowe will lift the rate." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (Increase): "Latest data remains neutral for the current setting environment with ABS March quarter CPI still clearly underwhelming. Predictable end to APRA market manipulation reflects generally moderated housing market activity so RBA can concentrate on main macro game." Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "Too early to change. Waiting on data regarding wages and unemployment." Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "After the tepid March quarter CPI report and the ongoing slowdown in the housing market, the RBA can park monetary policy into 2019." Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "Won't drop them - property prices flat - why move." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "Although momentum seems to be slowly building in the Australian economy, it still isn't at a point where interest rates will start to increase. We are now running at quite a different speed to large parts of the rest of the world - our time will come but it is taking lot longer than expected." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing P/L (Hold): "Even with unemployment reducing and the positiveness within the business sector, and the slowing of the housing market in many states I feel with the Royal Commission at is peak and the findings that have been released the RBA Reserve Bank would be very courageous to increase interest rates at the present." Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "The RBA has explicitly stated that the next move is likely to be up, but given that spare capacity remains in the labour market, wage growth continues to be subdued and inflation pressure muted a hike is not likely to occur for some time." Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Nothing in the recent data to force them to adjust rates one way or the other.  Still enough labour market slack to keep them from raising rates, and they've made it clear they would be very reluctant to ease at this point."</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Increased international lending costs may force banks to increase rates for home loan customers out-of-cycle

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australian taxpayers won’t face a rise in taxes now that Treasurer Scott Morrison announced the government will not increase the Medicare Levy by 0.5% as planned. This was to originally fully fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).
This is on the back of strong company tax receipts stemming from companies using up carry-forward losses accumulated in the wake of the financial crisis.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data for 2016/17, released this week, showed tax revenue for the federal government (including taxes received from other levels of government and public corporations) increased A$19.4 billion (5.2%).
The averted tax rise will be welcome news for Australian taxpayers. It also wedges the Labor opposition.
They have said that the NDIS was fully funded on their watch. So now they are proposing a 0.5% tax rise on all incomes over A$87,000. That’s pretty close to full-time male average weekly earnings and comes close to capturing half of Australian households.
The federal budget on May 8 will no doubt have further goodies for voters in the run-up to the net election, which will be either this year or relatively early next year. As usual, we will be reporting directly from the budget lockup.
One of the central economic puzzles of the last several years has been persistently low inflation in all advanced economies, despite general economic recovery and falling unemployment.
This week’s Australian consumer price inflation figures revealed a 0.4% increase for the March quarter, and 1.9% for the last 12 months. The March quarter figure was below market expectations of 0.5%, and also the previous (December quarter) figure of 0.6%. Education prices were up 2.6% on the quarter, and health prices up 2.2% (or 4.2% for the year to March 2018).
This puts inflation still below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band of 2-3%. That band, of course, has been in place since the early 1990s – beginning with this speech by then governor Bernie Fraser.
Numerous central banks around the world have a similar approach. The basic idea is that a central bank can build a reputation over time to commit to monetary policy such that inflation lies in the band.
Now there are pros and cons to this approach to monetary policy, and it has its critics. But that is another tale for another day.
Just assuming that inflation targeting is the correct objective, how is the RBA doing? Well, one small hitch in the plan is that inflation has been outside the band for a long time now (basically since 2014), as the RBA’s own figures show.
Given the level of unemployment in Australia, low wages growth, and stubbornly low inflation, the RBA probably should have cut rates further a fair while back. But they seem, probably rightly, terrified of further fuelling a potential housing bubble.
Meanwhile, the credibility of their commitment to the inflation target withers. If only the regulation of our banking and finance sector had been better for the last, say, decade or two.
Speaking of such regulation, RBA assistant governor Chris Kent gave a speech Tuesday about the important issue of interest-only loans. Kent’s speech was significant because it followed up on remarks in the RBA minutes about the same issue that I discussed in this column last week.
It seems that the RBA “house view” on interest only loans is as follows. There could be a problem but the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) stepped in and the banks have voluntarily tightened lending standards recently. Also because the average household with an interest only loan has a buffer of savings, everything will be fine. Nothing to see here.
I hope the RBA’s conclusion is right, but I know for sure that the reasoning is not. It’s actually the marginal household’s financial position and behaviour that matters, not the average household.
The average United States borrower with an adjustable-rate mortgage did not default in 2007, 2008 or 2009. But these mortgages were a huge contributor to the financial crisis, along with subprime mortgages.
Kent dutifully laid out the risks from interest only loans, saying:
"Because there’s no need to pay down principal initially, the required payments are lower during the interest-only period. But when that ends, there is a significant step-up in required payments (unless the interest-only loans are rolled over)."
Indeed, unless they can be rolled over. Which they can’t now because of APRA and the banks finally doing something.
Now, prices (interest rates) on interest only loans have gone up as part of the bank response. This has led a bunch of folks to shift to amortising loans, where the principal of the loan is paid down over the life of the loan. So those borrowers who haven’t shifted to these loans already, really don’t want to.
Maybe they can’t afford to because of the increased repayments, that can jump 30% or more per month.
So what does happen? First Kent says many borrowers save ahead of time, expecting a rise in repayments. Yes, the prudent ones.
But how many non-prudent borrowers have there been in the Australian property market in recent years? Hint: a lot.
Kent also points to borrowers who seek to refinance their interest only loan. But banks don’t really want to, and APRA doesn’t want to let them. And who is going to be able to? The safer borrowers who did save and so don’t really need to avoid amortisation. The risky borrowers can’t refinance.
Kent says some borrowers will have to cut their spending. Chuckle, chuckle. And the final option is to sell their house.
Sure, no problem, unless lots of folks want to do that all at once. Then it’s a fire sale that detonates the housing market.
I really do hope we escape the interest only debacle unscathed. But if we do it will be pure, dumb luck, not a consequence of good design or sound regulation.
It definitely doesn’t justify the RBA’s house view in Kent’s concluding remarks that: 
"The substantial transition away from interest-only loans over the past year has been relatively smooth overall, and is likely to remain so. Nevertheless, it is something that we will continue to monitor closely."
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95518/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Perhaps a there should have been a little more monitoring before interest only loans got to be 40% of all loans and more than half of the loan book of one of our biggest banks.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-interest-only-loans-are-an-economic-debacle-that-could-bust-the-property-market-95518" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Interest only loans are an economic debacle that could bust the property market: Richard Holden

The limits of interest-only lending: RBA's Christopher Kent

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A large proportion of any cut in personal income tax - especially if the cuts were skewed towards lower and middle-income households with a higher propensity to spend - would likely provide a greater direct stimulus to the Australian economy than an equivalent cut in company tax.
Cutting personal income taxes seems likely to provide much more of a boost to the Australian economy than cutting company income tax. <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/analysis-of-the-long-term-effects-of-a-company-tax-cut/" target="_blank">As the government’s own published modelling</a> shows, the benefits of its proposed cuts to the company income tax rate are small relative to their cost.
<h2>Do we need income tax cuts to provide relief from financial hardship?</h2>
<blockquote>
The treasurer and I have been working on how we can provide more tax relief for hard-working middle income Australian families.
</blockquote>
- Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
Over the last five years, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/5206.0Main+Features1Dec%202017?OpenDocument" target="_blank">household spending has grown</a> by just 2.6% per annum in real terms, on average - of which more than half has been the result of population growth - compared with an average of 3.6% per annum over the preceding 12 years. Even with that lower growth rate in their spending, households have reduced their saving rate, from around 7% of disposable income five years ago to around 2.5% in 2017. That’s the lowest saving rate since before the financial crisis.
The key reason for this “squeeze” on household spending and saving is of course the ongoing weakness in the growth rate of household disposable income. Over the past five years, real per capita household disposable income has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.4%, compared with an average of 2.6% per annum over the preceding 12 years.
One reason for this is that Australian households have been paying an increasing proportion of their income in taxes. In the years prior to the onset of the financial crisis, almost every budget included personal income tax cuts in some form or other.
By contrast, there have been no changes to Australia’s <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/Rates/Individual-income-tax-rates/" target="_blank">personal income tax scale</a> since 2008 - apart from the increase in the tax-free threshold (paid for by an increase in the bottom rate) in 2012, the temporary surcharge on top-rate taxpayers which applied between 2014-15 and 2016-17, and the increase in the threshold for the second-top rate (from A$80,000 to A$87,000) which took effect in the 2016-17 financial year.
As a result, in 2017, Australian households in aggregate paid 19.5% of their taxable incomes in income and other direct taxes - the highest proportion since 2005, and continuing a steady rise since 2011.
Households are also spending almost two and a quarter percentage points more of their after-tax disposable incomes on education, health, insurance and other financial services, and utilities than they did five years ago.
Given all this, it’s little wonder that household spending in more “discretionary” areas has been so weak in recent years.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/okPTL/1/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="440"></iframe>
Well-targeted personal income tax cuts could thus help to ameliorate this multi-faceted “squeeze” on household incomes, and provide a direct boost to the economy.
<h2>Do we need income tax cuts to make up for the fact that we haven’t had a pay rise in a while?</h2>
<blockquote>
It’s been a long time since any Australians had a decent pay rise…this is a real pressure on Australians…we can give them some relief when it comes to their personal income tax.
</blockquote>
- Treasurer Scott Morrison
The other major reason for the very slow growth in real household disposable income over the past few years has been the unprecedented slowdown in wages growth. <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6345.0Main+Features1Dec%202017?OpenDocument">Wages have risen</a> at an average annual rate of just 2.2% over the past five years (only 0.3 of a percentage point above the inflation rate), down from 3.7% per annum over the preceding 12 years.
Although, as RBA Governor Phillip Lowe noted in <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-gov-2018-04-11" target="_blank">a speech</a> that “the latest data suggest that the rate of wages growth has now troughed”, he went on to warn that the pickup which the RBA expects “is likely to be only gradual”.
Recent experience in other advanced economies clearly suggests that the unemployment rate needs to be lower for longer than in previous business cycles before wages growth starts to pick up. So even assuming that Governor Lowe is right, it may be one or two years before Australian households can expect any meaningful improvement in their financial position from faster growth in their wages or salaries.
Well targeted personal income tax cuts could help provide at least some offset to this likely continuing stagnation in wages growth over the next year or so.
<h2>What’s the verdict?</h2>
Targeted personal income tax cuts could reduce the squeeze on households and make up for persistent low wages.
Of course, it remains crucial that any cuts in personal income tax be sustainable - that is, that they are not funded by bigger deficits, and do not materially detract from the task of putting the nation’s public finances on a sounder footing. This is so we are better placed to withstand any unforeseen economic shocks.
And it’s important to remember that government spending has moved to what appears to be a permanently higher level as a proportion of GDP since the financial crisis. The government’s underlying cash payments averaged 25% of GDP from 2011-12 through 2017-18, up from 24% from 2001-02 through 2007-08. That also represents a constraint on the scope for tax cuts.
However, the apparently greater improvement in the budget <a href="https://www.finance.gov.au/sites/default/files/feb-mfs-2018.pdf" target="_blank">so far this financial year</a>, compared with what was forecast as recently as last December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, could give the government a little more latitude for financially sustainable personal income tax cuts in the upcoming budget.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94500/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Perhaps the most sustainable way of providing the “relief” which the treasurer says many Australian households need, would be to abandon the tax cut for companies turning over more than A$50 million a year. The government hasn’t been able to get these through the Senate. These cuts would do far less to boost the Australian economy than well-targeted personal income tax cuts of a similar order of magnitude.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">Saul Eslake</a>, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888" target="_blank">University of Tasmania</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/budget-policy-check-does-australia-need-personal-income-tax-cuts-94500" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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