<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

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Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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<div>Most market onlookers believe the cash rate will remain static at the April board meeting, but just two 25-basis-point rate rises is all it could take before some ‘risky’ mortgage holders lose grip of their repayments, according to new finder.com.au research.</div>
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Thirty one of the 32 (97%) panellists from the finder.com.au RBA survey are expecting the rate to remain on hold, with one respondent (Mark Crosby from Monash University) forecasting a rise to 1.75%. Eighty-three percent (24 of 29) of experts and economists believe the next rate move will be an increase, while the remainder of the panel believe the Reserve Bank will stay in the cutting cycle. Finder’s new Economic Sentiment Tracker, which was introduced to the survey last month, has found household debt to be the number one area of concern for the majority (55%) of panellists. Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, says household debt is still a struggle for many Australians.
“Mortgage repayments are king of household debt, but other costs like personal loans and credit card repayments also comprise a large chunk of household debt — and they roll in like clockwork.
“Running costs like electricity and gas can also quickly deplete household savings,” he says.
Employment is viewed with optimism among the experts and economists (65%) while the panellists mostly felt neutral (50%) or negative (15%) about the nation’s wage growth.
Thirty percent of panellists expressed negative sentiment toward cost of living.
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UBS Wealth Management Australia recently released a report saying 18% of the home loan market included fraudulent details on their applications. With this in mind, panelists were asked how many 25-basis-point rate increases it would take before mortgage holders started defaulting.
In response to this, 56% of experts believe up to two rate increases could cause the “risky” end of the market to default on their repayments.
Thirty-nine percent think two cash rate increases would be enough to throw homeowners into default, while a further 17% said just one rate increase would put fraudulent borrowers in a precarious position.
According to recent data, Sydney’s auction clearance rates (ACR) have fallen from 73.7% in August 2017 to 63.8% on March 2018, hitting a low of 57.5% in February 2018.
Panellists were asked if clearance rates will fall below 50% in 2018. Most respondents (13 of the 20 who opted in to this question) said they don’t expect to see Sydney ACRs fall below 50%.
“We’ve seen some correction in the Sydney market, with some experts indicating the market may continue to slow and we may see an average clearance rate around the 55% mark,” Mr Cooke says.
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Here’s what the experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold):"The RBA will continue with their current monetary policy settings, though recent data will have dented their confidence regarding the outlook for employment, inflation and overall economic growth. We remain of the view that their next move will be a cut to the cash rate, particularly if house price weakness continues, but this will take time to play out."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold):"No material changes to outlook since March. "
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold):"High business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA's own growth and inflation forecasts argue against a rate cut, but risks around consumer spending, weak wages growth and inflation, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets and the still too high $A argue against a rate hike."
Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): "The fundamentals don’t want any change."
John Hewson, ANU (Hold):"[The RBA] simply can't move given level of household debt. The economy is still mixed."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold):"Inflation below target range, Moderate growth, global volatility."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold):"There are still no real signs that inflation is heading back up to the middle of the 2-3% target range, so interest rates need to stay low to give it a bit of a boost."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold):"Nothing has materially changed since the RBA last stated that current monetary policy settings were (in its opinion) appropriate. There’s been no new data on price or wage inflation; and the most recent labour force data suggests that the margin of spare capacity in the labour market remains unchanged, despite ongoing strong employment growth (because most of the new jobs are going to new entrants to the labour force). And the RBA has repeatedly made it clear that it feels under no pressure to follow other central banks in hiking rates."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): "The RBA is still concerned about low wages growth and household debt levels."
Mark Brimble, Griffith University (Hold): "Volatility and uncertainty are key factors in the global context and the Australian economy continues to show lackluster performance."
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold):"The current economic environment of strong job creation and fairly weak price pressures does not merit a change in monetary policy from the RBA at this time."
Alex Joiner , IFM Investors (Hold):"There is no material change in the outlook. The labour market continues to perform well however economic activity nor consumer price/wages inflation justifies a near term adjustment of policy."
Michael Witts, ING (Hold):"The RBA will keep rates unchanged as it is looking for the economy to gather further momentum."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold):“The residential housing market, and the economy generally, requires the steady interest rate environment to continue. Employment growth has been encouraging but tempered by flattened wage growth, while house price growth is also subdued and clearance rates are solid if unspectacular. It amounts to a prudent case of the RBA leaving rates as is."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "The economy has spare capacity and the bank doesn't want to cut – even though for a long time it should have."
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold):"The global economy has continued to show signs of improvement, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In Australia, the economy remains on a steady footing with business confidence and employment improving. However, this is yet to flow through the increased wages or consumer prices. Housing markets across the country continue to remain active with listings numbers increasing and auction clearance rates sitting just below the long-term average. More properties on the market for sale has provided more choice for buyers and when combined with the moderation of investor demand has led to a slowdown in price growth. In weighing up these variables, it is likely that the RBA will keep the cash rate at the record low of 1.50% over the short-term."
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Marie Mortimer, loans.com.au (Hold):"We are speaking to a lot of borrowers who are refinancing with loans.com.au for a cheaper rate than traditional lenders because they are conscious of their household budget. The RBA are also aware of the impact on a rate rise to household budgets and we believe that rates will remain on hold in the short term due to the relatively low inflation rate and weak economic sentiment." 
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold): "The RBA is unable to get away from its obsession with non-existant financial instability. It should be cutting rates" 
John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA has flagged they are in no hurry in increasing rates. They want to see inflation increase, a pick-up in wages and lower unemployment before they consider putting up rates again." 
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Michael Yardney, Metropole (Hold):"Despite an increasing divergence with overseas rates, the RBA will keep official rates at their historic low of 1.5% because of spare capacity in our employment markets. While the Australian economy added 17,500 jobs in February, strong population growth and increased labour-force participation meant the official unemployment rate crept up a notch from 5.5% to 5.6%."
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Mark Crosby, Monash University (Increase):"Despite ‘The Donald’s’ attempts to trash the world economy, the case for the RBA raising is now very strong." 
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Christopher Schade, MyState (Hold): "With wages growth subdued and inflation well contained; there is no need for the RBA to rush to raise rates. We would not be surprised to see the RBA on hold for much, if not all of CY 2018." 
Alan Oster, nab (Hold): "No increase until we get better wages and more consumer activity." Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "More time and confidence is needed before any rate rise."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "No inflation to speak of, tepid growth, slowing housing market and an unsettled global outlook give the RBA more than enough reasons to remain on hold." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold):"Housing not rising - markets wobbly - no reason to move." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "Economy still isn't strong enough." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing (Hold):"Unemployment figures have reduced slightly across most states, however individual debt has increased per capita. Banks are continuing to tighten their policy to be in line with responsible lending with owner occupier and investment property loans, thus reducing their overall risk in the property segment." 
Besa Deda, St George Bank (Hold):“The inflation outlook does not warrant a near term rate increase from the RBA.” 
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Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Labour market and inflation developments aren't robust enough to warrant any near term tightening, and the RBA is clearly unwilling to ease to boost growth. On hold for a long time!" 
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold):"No reason for a change." 
Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold):"Unlike the “immediate” Trump fiscal stimulus the AustralianGovernment is adopting a more structured, cautious approach."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

No RBA change says Finder.com.au experts

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Financial Services Royal Commission has exposed the pressure selling tactics used by the banks. They draw on simple psychological rules to target vulnerabilities among some of their most loyal customers.
One example is the high-pressure selling of add-on insurance for customers when they sign up to a credit card. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) acknowledged that upwards of A$13 million of refunds are likely to be paid to consumers who had been pressured into buying these add-on products.
Another witness at the commission, Irene Savidis, relayed what happened when she tried to cancel this insurance: "they just kind of kept pushing it on me saying, you know, “It’s good for you, it will help you.” I just felt pressured or kind of like, you know, no matter what I said, it was the opposite. So I couldn’t – I felt like I couldn’t cancel it."
These techniques are well established in psychological research as ways to manipulate behaviour. In this single example, we can see how the representative of the CBA used trust, repetition (the more something is repeated, the more we are likely to believe that it is true), authority (the salesperson is perceived to be an expert), and scarcity (act now, or you will miss out). All of these factors are part of the marketers’ bag of tricks.
As much as trust can be useful under certain circumstances, at times it can be dangerous. When we are faced with choices or decisions where we don’t feel confident, we have a tendency to give over our decision making to somebody who we believe has those skills and authority and trust them to do the right thing by us.
How we make decisions under situations of stress
As we can see in the examples from the commission, many of these financial decisions are being made by consumers under already significant financial and psychological stress. We also know that under these conditions none of us make the best decisions.
In psychology, we know that people don’t always think through their decision making in a rational and linear way when placed under situations of stress. This becomes more pronounced when – counter intuitively – people are provided with lots of information related to a topic that they don’t have the ability to fully understand, either because it is complex and confusing, or even simply because it is in an area that they don’t have any experience in.
It’s in these situations that they rely on peripheral information to make their choices – things like colours, previous experience with similar situations, even the aesthetic layout of the information, or the way the person giving them the information is dressed.
When we feel we have less resources, we perform worse on tasks requiring high-level cognitive control, like important decision making. Logical reasoning, the kind that should occur when signing up to a loan, extending our credit, or committing to any major financial agreement, is relatively inefficient in these situations.
Responding to pressure selling techniques
So, how do we respond to the types of techniques that we have seen and any others that might be exposed by the commission over the next 12 months?
We need to accept that our decision making is flawed and not judge ourselves, or others, harshly, when they seem to make irrational decisions, or behave in a way that is counter-intuitive. We need to accept that people are complicated, and will make a decision that conforms to their emotional state of mind, at that point in time.
That said, there are some things people can do to avoid some of these manipulative tactics. One thing is to do your best to slow down when it comes to decision-making. If you do want to buy something, that’s fine, but do it outside the heat of the sales process.
Speak to someone you trust about your plans. Recognise that your emotional brain may already have convinced your rational brain that you are making a good decision, so you need to check in with someone who isn’t emotionally engaged in the decision.
And if the person offering something like add-on insurance creates a sense of scarcity, then identify the feeling, and assume you can walk away. A classic technique of traditional sales is to say something along the lines of, “I can only offer you this now”, but the best response is always to take your time. If they are offering you this today, they are more than likely to offer it to you tomorrow.
One thing that has emerged from the royal commission is the somewhat obvious fact that banks are businesses. Indeed, people should not be fooled into thinking that banks are anything other than profit-driven organisations. Banks know exactly what they are doing when it comes to the use of manipulative techniques to get customers to buy their products.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93424/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The hope is that this royal commission will be able uncover and act upon some of the practices verging on illegal, while highlighting some of the more unpleasant and unethical practices that have been occurring.
Paul Harrison, Director, Centre for Employee and Consumer Wellbeing; Senior Lecturer, Deakin Business School, Deakin University
Chiara Piancatelli, Visiting Research Associate, Deakin University
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-dont-we-read-the-fine-print-because-banks-know-the-pressure-points-to-push-93424" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Why don't we read the fine print? Because banks know the pressure points to push

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The irresponsible (if not predatory) lending and the selling of “junk” financial products highlighted by the Financial Services Royal Commission should raise concerns for regulators, educators and parents interested in financial literacy.
Research shows a strong correlation between financial literacy and literacy and numeracy skills. Literacy and numeracy are critical for, among other things, making sense of product disclosure statements and understanding the impact of loan terms and interest rates on the total amount to be repaid.
But teaching financial literacy requires going beyond these skills, by cultivating a healthy scepticism of financial institutions and the capabilities and confidence to make informed financial decisions.
There is a strong relationship between a low socioeconomic background and low financial literacy in both adolescents and adults.
It’s not just disadvantaged and vulnerable groups that struggle with financial decision-making. People who are highly educated in finance also make poor decisions – for instance, by focusing too much on growing their assets and ignoring risks.
But studies show that when regulation is effective and the financial system can be trusted, even consumers with limited financial knowledge and information-processing capabilities have the potential to deal with complex financial decisions.
For example, when considering mortgage protection insurance, applicants stand to benefit from knowing the actual risk of events like serious illness or injury that can affect their ability to meet monthly loan repayments.
<h2>Building financial capability</h2>
One way to develop better financial literacy is through simulating real-world risks, rewards and decisions in safe and supportive environments. For instance, families can play games like Monopoly and The Game of Life.
Secondary school students also have access to more sophisticated online simulations, such as the ESSI Money Game and the ASX Sharemarket Game.
Hypothetical scenarios like these provide opportunities for role play, where students can practise drawing on evidence and using it to think and reason about situations.
A recent survey of teachers of Year 7-10 commerce students revealed that more could also be done to teach students how to compare and choose between banks and financial products and services, what to do in the case of a financial scam, and how to escalate an unresolved complaint.
But we also need to take a look at the role banks play in financial education. Programs like the Commonwealth Bank’s Dollarmites Club and Westpac’s Solve to Save teach children about money on the banks’ terms.
A key call to action in these programs is often to open a bank account and activate a savings plan. In the Solve to Save program, parents pay a $10 weekly subscription, which is “automatically refunded” to their child’s nominated Westpac account every week they complete three mathematics exercises.
Late last year, in response to criticism by the consumer advocacy group Choice, the Commonwealth Bank stopped kickback payments to schools related to its longstanding Dollarmites scheme.
While the banks may be proud of their investment in these education programs, they serve to position the banks as experts in money matters while cultivating trust and brand loyalty.
<h2>What does it really mean to be smart with money?</h2>
Misguided trust has exposed vulnerable individuals to the moral hazard of the banks – and underscores the importance of improved financial regulation and education moving forward.
Given that borrowing decisions are complex, multidimensional and often emotional, it’s important to consider any lender’s motives, or “What’s in it for them?” Banks are profit-driven. This means an important question to ask oneself is: “Where can I get information and support that is independent, comprehensive and easy to understand?”
In the current climate, teaching capabilities for a healthy scepticism and personal agency is the way forward.
We also need to change the public perception of what it means to be financially literate. The conventional focus on individual responsibility and wealth accumulation is flawed.
Arguably, this focus has contributed to the need for a Financial Services Royal Commission. Whether you are a bank, a mortgage broker or a consumer, the impact of your decisions on others must be carefully considered.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93489/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">While education can contribute to preparing all Australians for informed financial participation, the task is challenging.
Carly Sawatzki, Assistant Professor, University of Canberra 
Levon Ellen Blue, Lecturer, Queensland University of Technology
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/consumers-need-critical-thinking-to-fend-off-banks-bad-behaviour-93489" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Consumers need critical thinking to fend off banks' bad behaviour

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Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority chairman Wayne Byres has said there is little evidence of a lending free-for-all.
The APRA chairman defended the banking regulators’ actions to reduce what were perceived to be growing risks in Australia’s housing market.
Speaking to lawmakers in Canberra, Byres said that without the introduction of tighter macroprudential measures it may have led to interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a further deterioration in lending standards.
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He faced more than an hour of questioning about revelations of poor lending standards from the Hayne royal commission at the House Economics Committee yesterday.
"We are still dealing with an environment in which arrears are not particularly high, they are higher than they have been for a while, but if lending was a free-for-all in the way that some are suggesting I think arrears rates and other things, indicators of financial stress, would be much higher than what they are now" Byres said.
The latest RBA data the proportion of impaired housing loans as a proportion of all loans is 0.15 per cent. 
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Byres explained that the chief banking regulator had been engaging the largest lending institutions about their lending standards for several years and many of the issues raised were the responsibility of the corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
"The prudential standards are about safety ... boiled down to its absolute essence is the question 'Is the money of depositors safe' and I don't think anyone has drawn the conclusion that that isn't the case ... we shouldn't suggest that there is any threat at all to depositors money here," Byres said.
Byres was asked to elaborate on comments made before the House Economics Committee last month when he said the macro-prudential limits were "reaching the end of their useful life".
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Byres said the 10 per cent cap on the rate of investor lending announced in December 2014 was likely to be the first measure to be unwound.
Byres said he couldn't foreshadow the removal of the 30 per cent cap on the flow of new interest-only loans which was announced 12 months ago as "we've only just got that in place".
 
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Little evidence of lending free-for-all: APRA's Wayne Byres

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As widely expected, the Fed increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 per cent to 1.50-1.75 per cent. This was the sixth increase in interest rates of the current monetary policy tightening cycle.  The decision by the Fed voters was a unanimous 8-0.
US interest rates higher than the Aussie cash rate: The federal funds target rate is higher than the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate of 1.50 per cent for the first time in over 17 years. 
US interest rate outlook: The Fed is forecasting two further rate increases in 2018 and three further hikes in 2019. The 2020 projection is for two interest rate hikes. 
US economic outlook revised higher: Economic growth (GDP) forecasts were increased to 2.7 per cent in 2018, up from the previous forecast of 2.5 per cent. The 2019 forecast was moved higher to 2.4 per cent, up from 2.1 per cent previously. Growth is projected to decelerate to 2.0 per cent by 2020.
US at full employment: The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.8 per cent in 2018, down from 3.9 per cent in 2018. The unemployment rate is expected to fall further to 3.6 per cent in 2019-2020.
Inflation to reach target in 2019: Inflation is expected to remain below the Fed's 2 per cent target this year at 1.9 per cent. But the Fed expects the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator (inflation) to increase to 2.1 per cent, above previous projections for 2.0 per cent in 2019 and 2020. 
Changes in US monetary policy settings can affect rates in Australia as well as the sharemarket and currency.
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<h1>What happened and what does it all mean?</h1>
The US central bank, the US Federal Reserve, increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.50-1.75 per cent, as expected. More interest rate increases are forecast due to the improving economic outlook. 
The US unemployment rate is at a 17-year low. Now US interest rates have increased above Aussie interest rates for the first time in over 17 years.
The last time the US federal funds target rate was above the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate was December 2000. US interest rates were higher than Aussie cash rates for the period July 1997 – December 2000. How the world has changed since then. 
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Back in those days the cash rate in both countries was well above 6 per cent and the Aussie dollar slumped to just US48 cents in early 2001.
Fast forward to 2018 and the Aussie economic expansion is now into a record 27th year, while the slow-but-steady increase in US output is into its ninth year. Should the US expand for another year, it will exceed the 10-year economic boom of the 1990s – the last time US interest rates were higher than their Aussie counterparts.
<h1>US Federal Reserve decision</h1>
Today’s decision by the US Federal Reserve was well telegraphed and uniformly expected by financial markets. The gradual tightening of monetary policy and removal of stimulus continues in the new Jerome Powell era. 
It was just three weeks ago that influential Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard spoke at Harvard University and opined: “Mounting tailwinds at a time of full employment and above-trend growth tip the balance of considerations. With greater confidence in achieving the inflation target, continued gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be appropriate.” 
Since then the US labour market has continued to strengthen. Consumer sentiment has hit new post-Global Financial Crisis highs and core inflation, while still below the Fed’s 2 per cent target, has lifted sequentially. The Fed’s preferred measure – core PCE inflation – is now a quarter percentage point higher in annualised terms than its low in mid-2017.
Retail sales and housing data has been weak at the beginning of 2018, but the US Federal Reserve has decided to look through this data and potentially a weaker March quarter economic growth print.
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In terms of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) press release, the FOMC reiterated that future interest rate adjustments will be data dependent and that “economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal fund rate”. The FOMC acknowledged that the “economic outlook has strengthened in recent months.” Inflation is expected“to move up in the coming months”. And “job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low”. Though household spending and business investment “have moderated” from late last year.  
The median path for the fed funds rate was changed in 2019-2020. The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections shows the median interest rate projections (the “dot plot”) still implies two further 0.25 per cent interest rate increases in 2018 (to 2.125 per cent); three 0.25 per cent interest rate increases in 2019 (to 2.875 per cent); and two 0.25 per cent interest rate increases in 2020 (to 3.375 per cent).
The policy-relevant core PCE deflator inflation projection were little changed. Core PCE inflation is still expected to run at 1.9 per cent in 2018. The FOMC lifted its core PCE forecast by 0.1 per cent to 2.1 per cent in 2019 and 2020.
The FOMC upgraded its GDP forecasts and lowered its unemployment rate projections. The FOMC projects GDP growth of 2.7 per cent in 2018 (previously 2.5 per cent) and 2.4 per cent in 2019 (previously 2.1 per cent). Meanwhile, the FOMC expects the unemployment rate to be 3.8 per cent in 2018 (previously 3.9 per cent) and 3.6 per cent in both 2019 (previously 3.9 per cent) and 2020 (previously 4.0 per cent).
The Fed continues to unwind its huge balance sheet. Holdings have declined to around US$4.4 trillion, the lowest since September 2014. The Fed plans to shrink the balance sheet by US$10 billion per month then accelerate the pace of reduction every three months. Eventually, holdings will be reduced by around US$50 billion per month until a “new normal” balance sheet holding is achieved. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has estimated that the balance sheet could drop to US$2.4-US$2.9 trillion after several years of cuts. 
US sharemarkets reacted positively initially to the well telegraphed outcome - especially given a fourth rate hike was not added in 2018 - with the Dow Jones Industrial Index briefly trading higher 250 points. However, shares declined into the US market close on weaker sentiment. Investors would be comforted that the FOMC largely left its interest rate outlook unchanged and US economic projections are stronger. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 2.91 per cent before rallying back to 2.88 per cent. The US dollar fell and the Aussie dollar rallied from overnight lows near US76.70 cents and was near US77.66 cents in late US trade.
<h1>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</h1>
The US economy is in rude health. We expect growth to remain above potential at around 2.8 per cent this year – the fastest pace of growth following the Global Financial Crisis.
Despite recent sharemarket volatility, financial conditions are still very accommodative and supportive for growth. The University of Michigan current economic conditions index for March was at record high (since 1978).
The Trump Administration’s fiscal expansion will likely lend support to late cycle US economic growth. The ‘leg-up’ from US$1.5 trillion worth of corporate tax cuts and additional government spending of around US$10 billion per year on infrastructure is expected to add around 0.5 percentage points to growth in 2018. Robust business investment and consumer spending, and a soft US dollar are additional growth sources. 
One of the challenges for Fed policy makers this year is to determine the full impact of the Trump tax-cut plans. The recent fiscal stimulus has probably not been fully baked into economic forecasts. And with US output and the labour market at near full capacity, concerns are building about an overheating economy.  
Click here<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/22/BEST4.jpg" target="_blank"> to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/22/BEST4.jpg" alt="">
The Fed will also be contending with a deteriorating US budget deficit and government debt situation. The US posted its largest budget deficit in six years in February at US$215 billion. And the deficit for the fiscal year that began in October 2017 widened to US$391 billion compared with a US$351 billion shortfall the same period a year earlier. The US gross government debt load has breached US$21 trillion or 106 per cent of GDP.
US President Trump’s tax policy is expected to reduce US federal revenue by more than US$1 trillion over the next decade, while a US$300 billion spending deal reached by the US Congress in February could push the deficit higher. So the corporate tax cuts will be funded by an increase in the US budget deficit, resulting in an increase in the issuance of US Treasury bonds. 
And the Fed’s interest rate hikes will likely expand the budget deficit even further by raising the Trump Administration’s cost of issuance, thereby further increasing the supply of US Treasuries. Rising supply, especially shorter dated bills, is already weighing on fixed income markets. And around US$425 billion of bonds will be maturing this year with the Fed only reinvesting US$195 billion of this amount. Who will pick up the shortfall?
If the Fed meets market pricing expectations for potential interest rate hikes, it will probably succeed in flattening the yield curve further – especially with the term premium curve flat already – then more likely we’ll see further episodic market volatility. 
With inflation running below 2 per cent, doubts over the Fed’s forward guidance will persist. However, base effects from wireless phone services’ price discounting, potential US dollar depreciation, tighter labour markets and a closing output gap should push annual inflation higher from mid-2018. 
Overall, we see the US economy growing above potential, supported by fiscal stimulus, still-low inflation and synchronised global growth. US President Trump’s policies, especially around trade, are the major ‘wildcards’. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that US trade policy should not affect the economic outlook.    
CommSec expects two further US interest rate hikes in June and September this year.
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
</div>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

US interest rates break 17-year drought: CommSec

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Expert Observer
As expected, the Minutes of the March Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board provided no real surprises although from our perspective there is some confusion as to the Bank’s growth forecast for 2018.
When the Governor made his statement following the Meeting, he changed the growth assessment for 2018 from “a little above 3%” to “faster than 2017”. That appeared to be a substantial change given that the expectation was that growth in 2017 (to print the following day in the December quarter GDP report) was expected to be only 2.5%. In today’s Minutes, we get a third variation where growth in 2018 is described as “expected to exceed potential growth”.
Potential growth is assessed by the RBA as 2.75%. So, we can conclude that despite sending somewhat different signals, the Statement and the Minutes are both pointing to a somewhat lower growth outlook for 2018. Note that the forecast for the February Statement on Monetary Policy was 3.25% and we will receive the next forecast on May 4.
The discussion around consumption is little changed. There is still “uncertainty surrounding the outlook for consumption growth”. Note that this meeting did not have the advantage of knowing the substantial upward revision for consumption in 2017. Based on partials, it was reasonable to expect consumption growth in 2017 to be around 2.2%.
The final number printed 2.9%. In response to that faster momentum, Westpac has revised up its GDP forecast for 2018 form 2.5% to 2.7%. However, we still expect growth of 2.5% in 2019, indicating a slowdown in the economy in that year. Even with this faster actual consumption path in 2018, we still think the Bank will remain uncertain around the consumption outlook, particularly given the reference to the impact of high household debt levels on consumption.
There is a special consideration of the switch from interest-only to principal and interest loans, and the associated impact on borrowers’ cash flows. The Board notes that “the increase in payments would be significant for some individual households”, but concludes that this impact represents “a small proportion of household disposable income”. We concur with that assessment.
There is a long discussion on the outlook for business investment, concluding that there may be some upside risks to the Bank’s forecasts in growth in non-mining business investment over the medium term.
The discussion on the labour market continues to be dominated by the word “gradual”; “wages growth was expected to rise gradually and spare capacity in the labour would continue to decline gradually”.
Housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne are recognised to have slowed and housing credit growth had eased, particularly under the weight of tighter credit standards. However, the Board is not fully satisfied and still noted that household balance sheets continued to warrant “careful monitoring”.
It is noteworthy that the Minutes assess financial market pricing as indicating that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged during 2018 with a 25bps increase expected in the first half of 2019.
Commentary around the Australian Dollar is unchanged “on a trade-weighted basis, the Australian Dollar remained within its range of the preceding two years”. Overall conditions in the global economy are assessed as continuing to improve with a broadly based upswing. Nevertheless, the minutes repeat the Bank’s long-held view that Australia’s terms of trade are likely to “decline over the following few years”.
Conclusion
Given that the national accounts were not available at the time of the Board meeting, it is not certain that the Bank has decided to lower its 2018 growth forecast from 3 ¼ per cent. Certainly, Westpac assessed the December quarter report as justifying a modest lift in our growth forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. A growth forecast of 3 ¼% in an economy where potential is 2.75% would normally be associated with a central bank that expects to tighten policy at some stage over the course of the year. We certainly have believed that the Bank held such an expectation.
The ongoing emphasis on “gradual” with regard to the labour market and inflation increase the probability that the Bank is reassessing that view. It was always our expectation that such a reassessment would occur over the course of 2018.
We continue to expect that the cash rate will remain on hold in 2018 and 2019.
With growth slowing to below trend in 2019, we cannot see a case for higher rates in that year either.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Confusion on the RBA's growth forecast for 2018

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Westpac Group is set to use three leading global credit agencies to track liar loans to boost its loan scrutiny.
Westpac will advise its borrowers' their credit information will be soon be screened by Equifax, Experian and illion, which is formerly Dunn and Bradstreet Australia.
The Australian Financial Review said it will allow Westpac and its subsidiaries, Bank of Melbourne, St George Bank and BankSA to review all debts of the applicants, including drawn lines of credit, rather than just credit inquiries, and any defaults.
Equifax, which is headquartered in the US, claims its collects information on more than 800 million individual consumers and 88 million businesses worldwide.
</div>
<div>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the federal government have been pressing for better credit checking to reduce lenders' exposure to defaults.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One in five property borrowers are exaggerating their income and nearly half understating their spending, according to recent analysis of loan applications by online property lender Tic:Toc Home Loans.</div>
<div>
The issue of liar loans' flared when investment bank UBS estimated last year about 30 per cent of home loans could be affected.
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Westpac moves to thwart property liar loans with international credit checks

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The Reserve Bank of Australia should follow the example of other central banks and be clearer about when and how rates will change, called “forward guidance”, to make its policy more effective.<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/giovanni-pellegrino-452180"></a>
At the moment the RBA follows an approach to implement monetary policy known as <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/" target="_blank">inflation targeting</a>. This means it has a numerical target for inflation (an average 2-3% inflation over the medium term) and a framework to achieve that target (how it thinks monetary policy affects the economy, and how it communicates policy decisions).
Australia’s cash rate is at a historical low of 1.5%. So if there’s any adverse shock to our economy (for example, a large correction in house prices), the RBA would have little room to reduce the cash rate before getting to 0% – the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.
At that point, you can’t cut rates anymore. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292117301605" target="_blank">Research shows</a> economic shocks can have a more severe impact on economic activity when the policy rate is at, or near, zero.
Instead the RBA should be more explicit about the conditions that would lead to a rate change. <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/working-papers/2016/wp2016-07" target="_blank">Research shows</a> this has stimulated economic recovery before.
<h2>How rates work at the moment</h2>
To understand forward guidance it helps to understand conventional thinking about monetary policy. The RBA controls inflation by adjusting the cash rate, which is the interest rate on overnight loans in the interbank market.
Changes in the cash rate change longer-term interest rates in the economy. These then influence households’ and businesses’ spending and investment plans. These decisions also determine demand and inflation.
For example, suppose inflation is below target. A cut in the cash rate reduces longer-term interest rates, which encourages people to buy goods and services (falls in long-term deposit rates and government bonds reduce the incentive to save) and invest (commercial and mortgage loans are cheaper). Rising demand sends prices up, which brings inflation back to target.
As with other central banks around the world, the RBA also explains the rationale for its policy decisions. For example, in the <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/" target="_blank">Statement of Monetary Policy</a>, released four times a year, the bank sets out its assessment of current domestic and international economic conditions, along with an outlook for Australian inflation and output growth.
The purpose of these announcements is to enhance the credibility of the inflation target. If people trust the RBA will implement policy to achieve the inflation target, they will make plans around what they spend and how they price goods and services based on this. This makes inflation easier to control.
<h2>How being clearer about rates helps</h2>
While the RBA might not be able to influence the current cash rate, it can still influence longer-term rates by making announcements about its future policy decisions. Long-term interest rates usually change depending on what people expect of future cash rate changes.
So if monetary policy can influence these expectations, it can move long-term rates.
Of course, words are cheap. To make these declarations credible the RBA would need to communicate its plans for the future cash-rate, with modelling and forecasts justifying those plans.
Economists could then judge whether the RBA is meeting its objective through good luck or good policy. If it’s through good policy, it enhances the RBA’s credibility and, in a virtuous circle, this gives the bank policy more influence over expectations.
A prominent example of forward guidance comes from the United States’ central bank, the Federal Reserve. In December 2008, when the federal funds rate (the US equivalent of the Australian cash rate) was first at the zero lower bound, the Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081216b.htm" target="_blank">announced</a>:
The committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.
Translated, the Fed anticipated keeping the federal funds rate at zero for a considerable time. This communication was meant to influence the public’s expectations about the future course of US monetary policy, and to have consumers and businesses expect an expansionary monetary policy for some time.
During the recovery, the Fed refined its communication strategy to become more explicit about the economic circumstances that would lead to a change in policy. For example, in June 2013, the committee that sets rates <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20121212a.htm">anticipated that</a>:
this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-½%.
This type of announcement gives people more information about the strategy the Fed will take with rates, rather than simply providing forecasts about what it expects future economic conditions to be like (which doesn’t need to have any information about policy strategy).
<a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.10.3154" target="_blank">Recent evidence</a> confirms this had an impact on businesses’ expectations. Right after the June 2013 announcement by the Federal Reserve, there was an increase in the number of quarters until businesses expected the US policy rate to increase above 25 basis points.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210482/original/file-20180315-104659-5fu59l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210482/original/file-20180315-104659-5fu59l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
FOMC= Federal Open Market Committee (which sets rates) Swanson and Williams: the zero bound and interest rates, Author provided
<a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/working-papers/2016/wp2016-07" target="_blank">Other research also</a> suggests forward guidance influenced private sector expectations and stimulated the economic recovery after the global financial crisis.
At the moment, the RBA doesn’t produce statements about future monetary policy and how this would change if the economic environment changed. But the bank could do this.
The RBA has the luxury to develop its communications policy during a time of economic calm, unlike the Federal Reserve, which was forced to experiment with new policies during the worst recession since the Great Depression.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93292/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">If the RBA waits until a future crisis, it would limit the power forward guidance could have in our economy.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/efrem-castelnuovo-145615" target="_blank">Efrem Castelnuovo</a>, Principal Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, and Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/giovanni-pellegrino-452180" target="_blank">Giovanni Pellegrino</a>, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-rba-needs-to-talk-about-future-interest-rate-policy-93292" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The RBA should be clearer about when it will change interest rates

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The Reserve Bank of Australia is tipped to sit on the sidelines for longer keeping interest rates steady say analysts at Macquarie.
Macquarie's economics team of Justin Fabo and Ric Deverell say they now expect the RBA to remain on hold until early 2019, Fairfax Media reported today.
While the economy is improving, the unemployment rate remains too high, and wages and price inflation too low for the 25 basis points of rate hikes pencilled in for August and November this year, the economists said.
"Monetary policy should be set on the path of least regret. That path, in our view, is now to err on the side of supporting growth for longer to gain more confidence that inflation will once again spend more time in the 2 per cent to 3 per cent target than not."
Macquarie noted that risks to the housing market have diminished with "the source of much angst for the Bank – fast growth in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne" seen easing.
Since August 2017 Macquarie analysts had 25bp hikes pencilled in for August and November this year.
Markets are pricing a non-negligible 45% chance of a rate hike by end 2018, "which looks about right in our view," says Fabo.
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Macquarie says rates will be on hold until 2019

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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Westpac is offering discounts of up to 105 basis points for property investment loans.
The latest round of cuts sees Westpac especially targeting first-time home buyers and rentvestors.
Andy Wright, Westpac head of portfolio management for home ownership, said it had reduced fixed rates for first time buyers by 40 basis points for principal and interest repayments.
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section">The bank is also introducing a five-year introductory variable rate for first-time buyers and abolishing establishment and monthly fees.</div>
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<div class="adWrapper"> </div>
<div id="article-inline-ad" class="adWrapper">The five-year investment loan of 4.09 per cent includes a discount of 105 basis points.</div>
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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
The "flexi" five-year loan is set at 3.79 per cent, which includes a discount of 80 basis points.
"These changes are designed to help first time buyers at the start of their home ownership journey and a cut in fees means they can put their savings towards purchases for their new home," Mr Wright told Fairfax Media.
"This offer also extends to 'rentvestor' first-home buyers who are looking to purchase their first property to rent out. We're seeing this trend increase, with many first-home buyers purchasing properties to rent in more affordable areas while choosing to live in close proximity to the city."
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section">The major bank lenders are aggressively reducing key fixed and investor interest-only rates because they have undershot the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's 30 per cent cap on new lending. </div>
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