<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
New analysis by the Property Investors Council of Australian (PICA) has detailed just how much tax typical property investors pay to governments under current negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rules.
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
PICA chairman Ben Kingsley said the council’s modelling showed an average Mum and Dad investor was adding hundreds of thousands of dollars to the public purse over the lifetime of a single investment property.
“The amount of federal taxes property investors pay is extraordinary and will surprise many – and that’s before state based stamp duty and land tax costs are included, adding tens of thousands of dollars more to the bill,” Mr Kingsley said.
“It is clear that property investors do pay well above their fair share in taxes and our concern is that impost on investors is set to blow out even further if Labor’s policies see the light of day.”
PICA modelled their investor tax figures based on current negative gearing and CGT rules assuming assets were held over a standard 30-year loan term.
“Our numbers show while a typical Australian investor will benefit from negative gearing initially, they will be taxed around $167,000 in subsequent years over the full 30 years of modelling,” Mr Kingsley said.
“If fact, their net tax payable from rental income over the life of the investment will be over $138,000 under current negative gearing rules.
“The initial tax benefit in this scenario is around $30,000, before paying the $167,000 over the journey,” Mr Kingsley said.
“If you think about what first home buyers get in grants, stamp duty concessions and the like, it’s very comparable to what investors receive, but investors have to pay a lot more additional tax when homeowners pay nothing more.”
Looking at the Capital Gains Tax impact, Mr Kingsley said under current rules CGT also added significantly to the government’s tax take.
“Our data showed, for example, if the average investing couple sold their asset in the 30th year, under the current 50 per cent exemption rule, they would be paying over $611,000 in CGT.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/15/negative%20gearing%201%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/15/negative%20gearing%201%20.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: PICA 
The facts show if Labor wins power on Saturday, it won’t be the wealthy who are funding their election promises, Mr Kingsley said.
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
“With the majority of the nation’s 2.2 million property investors earning less than $80,000 a year, Labor’s claim about tax loopholes being for the big end of town are, frankly, insulting,” he said.
“It’s totally deceptive to characterise landlords as ‘the big end of town’ in the lead-up to election day.”
Mr Kingsley said investors have been unfairly targeted throughout Labor’s and the Green’s election campaigns.
“Mum and Dads are tired of being branded as, ‘greedy property investors buying their fifth or sixth property’, when almost 72 per cent only own one,” he said.
“We’re also fed up with being blamed for higher property prices, when historically investors make up just three of every 10 buyers in the market.”
Mr Kingsley said the PICA analysis clearly showed that investors were already contributing plenty towards funding essential services through taxes.
“By releasing this data, we want the Australian public to understand that we certainly pay our way when it comes taxes for government to spend on more hospitals and more schools,” he said.
Mr Kingsley said political attacks via increased taxation on investors looking to self- fund their retirement would have far-reaching economic ramifications for all Australians.
“We agree with research undertaken by the Property Council of Australia regarding Labor’s policy on negative gearing and CGT – that it will force the average Mum and Dad investor out of property, which will reduce demand and have a negatively impact on prices,” he said.
“In addition, the policies will also reduce construction over time, which will force up rents when rental supply tightens.”
In contrast, Mr Kingsley said moves to assist first homebuyers through a recent Coalition policy announcement would prove far more effective than tinkering with negative gearing and CGT.
“PICA supports the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme as a financially astute way to assist first-timers into the market.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/15/negative%20gearing%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/15/negative%20gearing%202.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: PICA 
Mr Kingsley said the new policy, coupled with a variety of other state-based grants and concessions, meant it had never been a better time to be a first home buyer.
"The scheme will assist thousands of people to achieve their dream of home ownership, without drastically reducing the value of that same property, which is the undeniable outcome if negative gearing is restricted to new property,” he said.
"Mark my word, property prices will fall nationwide, and rents will rise if Labor proceeds with its foolhardy policy that will see the wealth of everyday Australians erode overnight."
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
 
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How negative gearing property investors pay tax into government coffers: PICA

<html><body>
The RBA has resisted calls to cut the official cash rate, but will be looking closely at this month’s employment data, whether wages growth remains flat and potentially the next round of inflation figures before they pull the trigger. 
Sally Tindall, research director at RateCity.com.au, said borrowers might have to wait until August before getting a rate cut. 
“Australia didn’t get a rate cut, but it’s still not off the cards. Based on the May statement from Phillip Lowe, its likely they’ll hold off until they see more consistent trends in employment and inflation,” she said.   
“But consumers don’t have to wait for the RBA to save money on their home loan. 
“The downturn in the market is putting pressure on banks’ bottom lines. What they need is more business on their books. 
“The best way for borrowers to get a rate cut is to turn themselves from an existing customer into a new one.”
How to get yourself a rate cut 
“Go online, find out what your bank is offering new customers, but also see what others are offering, because ultimately the lower the rate, the more money you’ll have left in your pocket,” said Tindall.
“Call your bank and ask them to match the rate offered to new customers, and if they aren’t prepared to budge you are well within your right to take your business to another lender; that’s the beauty of a variable home loan rate.” 
Lowest ongoing variable rates
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Company
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Rate
</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Reduce Home Loans
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
3.44%
</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Freedom Lend
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
3.44%
</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Loans.com.au
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
3.48%
</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</body></html>

Rates remain on hold for the 33rd month, but here’s how to get a rate cut

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Following the March quarter CPI report, a May RBA rate cut became the majority opinion amongst Australian market economists. Westpac however remained of the view that the first cut would instead come in August after the labour market turned down and as the RBA recognised growth was set to remain well-below trend through 2019.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/38365">Westpac’s view proved correct for May</a>, and the language of the decision statement was also consistent with our August/ November timing for rate cuts. Of greatest importance, the Board inferred in the statement that the labour market would have to strengthen further to stay a rate cut(s). In stark contrast, our analysis of the labour market suggests the cyclical sectors have already turned down sharply and that the headline measures will follow from April (a key release for next week).
On GDP growth, while the RBA only marked their 2019 GDP growth forecast to trend in May, the data-to-hand continues to point to a much weaker outcome. Note, in this week’s <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/38378">retail trade data</a> for the March quarter, sale volumes were shown to be up just 0.2% over the nine months to March. Ahead, as the labour market deteriorates, house price declines continue and the savings rate lifts, consumption (and consumer-linked investment in the retail sector) will come under further pressure.  
Across the Tasman, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/New_Zealand/2019/May_2019/MPS_Review_May_2019.pdf">the RBNZ</a> sought to get ahead of the curve by cutting the cash rate 25bps at their May meeting to 1.50%. The RBNZ had previously been betting on stronger growth in the domestic economy getting inflation back to the 2.0%yr target. However, this has not eventuated and hence, given global risks, the RBNZ decided to act.
Turning to Europe, the recent stabilisation in European data continued this week. The final April services PMI, March retail sales and May Sentix investor confidence all slightly beat consensus expectations, though March German factory orders underwhelmed. ECB President Draghi also remained constructive regarding policy’s effectiveness, reiterating a need to be patient and persistent to bring inflation back to target and that the ECB “don’t accept defeat”.
Over in the UK, the political situation continues to deteriorate. After a swing in local elections away from the conservatives, infighting is growing (again). Equally concerning, a Tory-Labour compromise is looking unlikely in the near-term, portending persistent Brexit uncertainty.
Finally to US and China trade. At the beginning of the week, President Trump surprised global markets by turning up the heat on China. Today the 10% tariff on $200bn of imports is set to be increased to 25% unless a deal can be reached in last-minute negotiations. A 25% tariffs on the remaining $325bn of imports from China to the US has also been mooted, though the timing is unknown.
If they become policy, these threats will not only put at risk China’s 2019 growth target of 6.0% –6.5%, but also the outlook for the US economy. The mutual cost to both nations is reason to believe a resolution will be reached, but not necessarily today. Clearly, there is significant distance between the two parties and the subject matter is highly contentious.
ELLIOT CLARKE is a senior economist at Westpac.
SIMON MURRAY is an economist at Westpac.
</body></html>

Westpac continues to expect cuts in August and November

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Westpac correctly forecast that the RBA would remain on hold at the May Board meeting. The Bank was clearly less concerned about the March quarter Inflation report and emphasised the importance of developments in the labour market. Westpac continues to expect rate cuts at the August and November Board meetings.
The Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%.
This was Westpac’s forecast, although markets were uncertain, with around a 50% probability priced in for a rate cut and 14/26 market economists forecasting a cut (Bloomberg survey 3 May). There are two main reasons behind this decision. Firstly, the RBA’s response to the recent March quarter inflation report was not as negative as had been expected. In its preview, Westpac pointed out that the RBA had moved from forecasting underlying inflation as the average of the weighted median and the trimmed mean to  forecasting just the trimmed mean.
In the March inflation report, the trimmed mean printed an increase of 0.3% for the quarter, compared to the RBA’s likely forecast of 0.4% - only a 0.1ppt miss. Today, the RBA lowered its trimmed mean forecast for 2019 from 2% to 1.75%, and for 2020 from 2.25% to 2%. That is only a 0.25 ppt reduction in the forecast. As we pointed out in our preview, that reduction compares to a 1 ppt reduction in the forecast from 2.5% to 1.5% in May 2016 (in response to a similarly low inflation report for the March quarter). Governor Stevens cut rates in response to that forecast change at the May 2016 Board meeting.
The second issue of importance was the Board’s noting in the April meeting minutes that “members also discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.
Today’s Governor’s Statement strongly emphasised the importance of the labour market, “it [the Board] recognised that there was still spare capacity in the economy and a further improvement in the labour market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target. Given this assessment, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the labour market at its upcoming meetings”.
As this comment emphasises, the second condition nominated in the April minutes is yet to be fulfilled. It is also important from a timing perspective to note the term “upcoming meetings”. That suggests to us that a common view held by some economists of a move in June  can be ruled out. This condition around the labour market will need more than one employment report to establish a trend.
We feel that this statement fits well with our view that the next move will be a cut in August. Firstly, we expect that the June quarter inflation report will print trimmed mean growth of around 0.4%. With the first six months of the year contributing 0.7ppts to the annual rate for 2019, it is unlikely it will be possible to persist with the 1.75%( 2019) - 2%( 2020) scenario and a 1.5%( 2019) – 1.75% (2020) scenario will be adopted by the RBA  for its August meeting. Recognition that inflation will hold below the bottom of the 2-3% target band for 2019 and 2020 will signal the need for further policy easing.
We also expect that developments in the labour market over the next three months will disappoint the RBA. It is not entirely clear whether they will be satisfied with a stable 5% unemployment rate which the Governor notes is their forecast for the next year, or they require a sustained lower unemployment rate, as noted in the concluding paragraph stating that a further improvement in the labour market is needed. Either way Westpac expects to see a deterioration in the labour market over the next six months.
We expect that this sequence of weak inflation and softening labour market data will persist throughout 2019, which is consistent with our growth forecast of 2.2% compared to trend of 2.75%. That profile remains consistent with the need for further stimulus at the November meeting following the August cut
Supporting our outlook for the labour market is our research showing that the cyclical sectors of the economy are already in jobs decline although this is being supported by ongoing jobs growth in the non- cyclical sectors.
Westpac forecast that rates would remain steady at today’s meeting. However we anticipate that developments around domestic demand; the labour market; and underlying inflation will establish a clear case for cuts in both August and November. This view has been held since February 21.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac.
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA holds rates steady in line with Westpac's forecast: Bill Evans 

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
This month’s RBA Board meeting saw interest rates remain on hold for the 30th meeting (or 33rd month) in a row.
While the RBA still sees the labour market as being strong it has further revised down its 2019 growth forecast to 2.75% (from 3% in February and from 3.25% in November) and its underlying inflation forecast to 1.75% for this year (from 2% in February and from 2.25% in November) and to 2% for next year (from 2.25% in February). This reflects weaker than expected data for growth and inflation in recent months.
Our expectation was that the RBA would cut at this meeting particularly given the weak March quarter inflation outcome. But given the timing of the election and the RBA’s focus on the jobs market it was a close call and in the event while the RBA has yet again lowered its growth and inflation forecasts it has opted to leave rates on hold for the time being.
Unfortunately we won’t really know whether the RBA has moved to an easing bias until the Minutes are released for this meeting in two weeks time because in recent times it has expressed its bias either in the minutes or in speeches. However, in a dovish twist it noted at the end of its post meeting statement that it recognises “that there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labour market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target.”
This continues the RBA’s focus on the labour market and implies that in the absence of a further improvement in the labour market inflation won’t head back to target. Which in turn would be consistent with rate cuts.
Our assessment is that unemployment will drift up from here – not dramatically but to around 5.5% by the end of the year – and we continue to see the RBA cutting the cash rate to 1% by year end. We have pencilled in a cut for June but concede that the RBA may wait a bit longer given that there is only one month’s worth of jobs data to be released between now and then. 
The problem for the RBA is that inflation has been undershooting its forecasts and the 2-3% inflation target for several years now. The longer this persists the more the RBA will lose credibility, seeing low inflation expectations become entrenched making it harder to get inflation back to target and leaving Australia vulnerable to deflation in the next economic downturn.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/7/RBA.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/7/RBA.png" alt="">
Source: RBA, Bloomberg, AMP Capital 
DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital.
</body></html>

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

RBA rate cuts are coming: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although the risks are tilted to the downside. Growth in international trade has declined and investment intentions have softened in a number of countries. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy, while addressing risks in the financial system. In most advanced economies, inflation remains subdued, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up.
Global financial conditions remain accommodative. Long-term bond yields are low, consistent with the subdued outlook for inflation, and equity markets have strengthened. Risk premiums also remain low. In Australia, long-term bond yields are at historically low levels and short-term bank funding costs have declined further. Some lending rates have declined recently, although the average mortgage rate paid is unchanged. The Australian dollar is at the low end of its narrow range of recent times.
The central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent in 2019 and 2020. This outlook is supported by increased investment in infrastructure and a pick-up in activity in the resources sector, partly in response to an increase in the prices of Australia's exports. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for household consumption, which is being affected by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices. Some pick-up in growth in household disposable income is expected and this should support consumption.
The Australian labour market remains strong. There has been a significant increase in employment, the vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. Despite these positive developments, there has been little further progress in reducing unemployment over the past six months. The unemployment rate has been broadly steady at around 5 per cent over this time and is expected to remain around this level over the next year or so, before declining a little to 4¾ per cent in 2021. The strong employment growth over the past year or so has led to some pick-up in wages growth, which is a welcome development. Some further lift in wages growth is expected, although this is likely to be a gradual process.
The adjustment in established housing markets is continuing, after the earlier large run-up in prices in some cities. Conditions remain soft and rent inflation remains low. Credit conditions for some borrowers have tightened over the past year or so. At the same time, the demand for credit by investors in the housing market has slowed noticeably as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased over the past year. Mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.
The inflation data for the March quarter were noticeably lower than expected and suggest subdued inflationary pressures across much of the economy. Over the year, inflation was 1.3 per cent and, in underlying terms, was 1.6 per cent. Lower housing-related costs and a range of policy decisions affecting administered prices both contributed to this outcome. Looking forward, inflation is expected to pick up, but to do so only gradually. The central scenario is for underlying inflation to be 1¾ per cent this year, 2 per cent in 2020 and a little higher after that. In headline terms, inflation is expected to be around 2 per cent this year, boosted by the recent increase in petrol prices.
The Board judged that it was appropriate to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting. In doing so, it recognised that there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labour market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target. Given this assessment, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the labour market at its upcoming meetings.
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Housing adjustment continues: RBA Governor Philip Lowe

<html><body>
The RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent in its May meeting.
It has now stayed at record lows for 30 consecutive meetings. 
The last time the rate changed was in August 2016, under the eye of former RBA governor Glenn Stevens.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says despite the hold, a cash rate cut soon seems likely.
"The flat CPI reading for the March quarter wasn’t enough to drag interest rates lower, although the likelihood of a cash rate cut over coming months remains high," Lawless said.
"While inflation remains below the RBA’s target range, labour markets generally remain relatively strong, supported by NSW and Vic, and the decline in housing values has lost some speed over recent months.
"If the cash rate does move lower later this year, a reduction in mortgage rates would provide some support for housing demand, however we may not see quite as much stimulus for housing market conditions that we have seen after previous rate cuts.  
"Generally, housing sentiment remains low and borrower mortgage serviceability is still assessed based on mortgage rates of at least 7%.  
"Households who already have a mortgage, or prospective borrowers who are able to satisfy lender credit policies will be the winners if interest rates do fall later this year."
</body></html>

RBA keeps cash rate on hold at May 2019 meeting despite growing pressure

<html><body>
Nearly three quarters of the experts and economists surveyed in Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey believe the cash rate will be dropped to 1% by the end of the year.
Of the 40 experts and economists surveyed, 30 (75%) predict a cash rate hold in May.
The experts by and large cited strong employment numbers and the pending Federal election as the main reasons for the hold.
More than 84% of experts believe there will be a cut in the next three months, while 73% predict a cash rate drop to 1% or lower by the end of the year.
It was only six months ago that one in four of the experts believed there would be <a href="/expert-insights/finance/one-in-four-economists-say-no-rate-rise-until-2020-finder">no rate rise until 2020</a>.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the increased prediction for a cut was driven by recently released consumer price index (CPI) numbers and the waning housing market.  “The latest 0% inflation results may have far-reaching implications for our economy. While the results came as a bit of a surprise to our panel, flat inflation will be a huge worry for the RBA, who are aiming to keep inflation between 2% and 3%," Cooke said. “Irrespective of May’s decision, the majority of experts expect at least one cut by August and many expect another cut after that – meaning a cash rate of 1% is in sight."
Economists have put forward (below), the circumstances in the economy that would likely trigger a rate cut.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/9d14533f-32fb-4f1d-b20b-f945f6dd5459.png" width="602" height="407">
Cooke said it’s clear that even a small change in the unemployment rate or a further drop in inflation could trigger a cut.
"Despite an imminent rate cute, consumers don’t need to wait for the cash rate to fall to cash in," he added.
“Whether the cash rate is at 1.5% or 1.25%, it’s still as low as we’ve seen in our history and home loans rates are equally at historic lows.”
 <img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/cb4b58a6-db91-45ad-a2c2-edfc91df5ca6.png" width="600" height="355">
What the experts said.
Nicholas Frappell, ABC Bullion (Hold): "Although the CPI figures were a surprise, and the case for a cut is evenly balanced, I think the RBA can wait and look for confirmation before deciding to cut in May. Also, automotive fuel costs were the biggest deflationary factor in the March data, and crude prices are more expensive now. Clearly, the RBA's language in April introduced a more dovish emphasis, but given the firm jobs market, the RBA can choose to wait until after the election." Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Decrease): "Rate cuts were already on the way thanks to slower economic growth and the downturn in the housing cycle, but weaker than expected underlying inflation in the March quarter argues that the RBA should move sooner rather than later." John Hewson, ANU (Decrease): "Getting worried about [the] outlook." Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): "Economic fundamentals do not yet justify a change." Malcolm Wood, Baillieu (Hold): "Despite a strong case for a rate cut, we expect the RBA to avoid political controversy just over a week from the election." David Robertson, Bendigo Bank (Hold): "Very close call, as the inflation report was very weak, but expect they may wait a month or two to see how the jobs data progresses." Ben Udy, Capital Economics (Decrease): "The economic outlook is now weaker than the last time the RBA cut rates and is likely to deteriorate further.” Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "Rate cuts unlikely to do much for the inflation or growth outlooks." Tim Moore, Credit Union Australia (Hold): "RBA will shift to an easing bias. Whilst CPI came in below expectations and moving away from the RBA target range, until we see weakness in the employment data we believe the RBA will remain on hold." Trent Wiltshire, Domain (Hold): "Due to weaker than expected inflation in the March quarter, the RBA will shift its commentary to an explicit easing bias, but will hold off from cutting rates this month." John Rolfe, Elders Home Loans (Hold): "Pressure is there for a reduction but with an election in 11 days, I believe the RBA will hold." Debra Landgrebe, Gateway Bank (Hold): "It appears that the market is expecting it, with the softer than expected inflation outcome. However, unemployment data remains stable. A cash rate cut does appear imminent either in May or June." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "Short term rates have declined and thus the money market may provide liquidity and or Actual rates relieve pressure.  More likely next month and system weakness remains." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "This is the first 'live' meeting for the RBA for some time. The weaker than expected inflation data gives the RBA a trigger to ease policy immediately. Underlying inflation has unambiguously decelerated.  However, the timing of the Federal election does give rise to the prospect of such a move being politicized - which may be awkward for the Bank. Also, the RBA may choose to focus on the labour market in its deliberations and with employment growth still solid and the unemployment rate trending lower this is still progress towards its objectives. The Statement on Monetary Policy will give the RBA the opportunity to make the case for its action. The arguments are finely balanced, and I would not be surprised if the RBA cut rates in May." Michael Witts, ING Bank (Decrease): "The inflation print is a concern for the RBA notwithstanding the positive labour market the RBA will be seeking to reflate the economy. It must be remembered that interest rate changes have a lagged impact on the economy.” Peter Boehm, KVB Kunlun (Hold): "There's no compelling reason to move rates right now although this may be a different story in four to six months time. Moving rates in the month of the Federal election would not appear to be a prudent move because political and economic certainty go hand in hand." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "It’s as close a call as the RBA has faced in recent times. The March quarter CPI figures were a bit of a shock but we still see the hold pattern as the prudent course. A single rate cut takes time to wash through the system and generate an impact and the economic situation is fluid, particularly given the upcoming election, so leaving rates unchanged for now seems appropriate." Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "They may (finally) want to cut what with the disastrous recent inflation numbers, but they may then revive the doctrine that interest rate changes during an election campaign are 'political', something that Glenn Stevens effectively refuted by pointing out that not cutting rates was also political. I think they'll find it (psychologically) easier to sit on their hands for another month." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Decrease): "Despite the ongoing labour market strength and the looming election, persistently soft inflation data and weakness in housing markets will prompt the RBA to cut rates at its May board meeting." Geoffrey Harold Kingston, Macquarie University (Hold): "The recent dip in inflation will have caught the Bank unawares &amp; it may well try &amp; save face by using the upcoming meeting to signal that it will cut soon." Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Decrease): "Weak economy, low inflation." John Caelli, ME Bank (Hold): "The case for cutting the cash rate has increased significantly, however, we expect the RBA to hold and wait for more data before cutting to a new record low." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Decrease): "In its April minutes the RBA acknowledged that "a rate cut would be appropriate if inflation didn't move any higher and unemployment printed up." In the last months, both inflation and GDP growth must have disappointed the RBA. While unemployment has remained stable, inflation has been falling, being 0% for the last quarter." Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "It is line ball, however I think that the RBA will take the view that a 25 basis point cut won't do much for inflation - they have really wasted their ammunition with the last two cuts. So cutting now just puts them further below the point where conventional monetary policy has any impact." Katrina Ell, Moody's Analytics (Hold): "Need unemployment to consistently head higher before cutting rates. This hasn't happened." Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "Cutting the cash rate could serve to stimulate the property market. National dwelling values have been consistently trending lower for seventeen months according to CoreLogic. However, history shows us that the RBA does not move the cash rate during an election campaign, so the RBA is likely to hold the cash rate in May. However, a number of factors would make the case for a cut when the board meet again in June or August, should some of the key current factors prevail." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (Hold): "Although latest inflation data remains subdued, low inflation in isolation should not be a catalyst to change the interest rate cycle after nearly three years on hold. Early signs of higher wages growth, a continuing strong labour market and indications that recent declines in house prices may now be bottoming out suggest the RBA will remain on the sidelines for another month." Andrew Reeve-Parker, NW Advice Pty Limited (Hold): "The RBA is unlikely to act in an election month." Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer  (Hold): "The RBA will wait and see the effect of the tax cuts." Matthew Peter, QIC (Decrease): "The drop in inflation in the first quarter is the tipping point for the first RBA rate move since 2016. The RBA has been clear in its intent that if inflation were to falter, rates would be coming down. This is now the case, so there is no longer any hurdle for a rate cut." Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "No point in lowering them - nothing to be gained." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "This is a hard call! Inflation numbers are terrible but jobs still looking ok. Plus there is an election coming up. I’m going with hold but I am not as confident as with my previous calls." Sveta Angelopoulos, School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University (Hold):"Although inflation figures point to a potential decrease in the cash rate the RBA may hold off a little longer, waiting for the election outcome (and reaction), as well as the March 2019 National Accounts information." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing P/L (Hold): "Due to our Federal election May 18th 2019." Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "It will be a close call. Low inflation and weak growth outlook suggests a case can be made for a rate cut. However, the ongoing strength of the labour market suggests that the RBA may want to wait to see incoming data unfolds. Recent RBA commentary suggests it may want to reconcile the strength in the labour market and weak economic growth before acting." Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Decrease): "CPI may have been the straw that finally broke the camel's back. Consistent below-target inflation and the likelihood of a softening labour market justify a cut." Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report (Hold): "Too close to the election." Sandy Suardi, University of Wollongong (Hold): "Concern with falling housing prices and possible weakening demand in the real estate sector despite a falling inflation rate." Richard Holden, UNSW Business School (Decrease): "Inflation, or lack thereof." Other participants: Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold) 
</body></html>

75% of experts and economists predict 1% cash rate by year's end: Finder RBA Survey

<html><body>
Westpac has reported its IO loans has dipped to 31 percent of its home loan portfolio.
It sat at 46 percent in late 2017.
An overview of <a href="/expert-insights/finance/anzs-home-loan-portfolio-shows-big-drop-in-interest-only-borrowers">ANZ's home loan portfolio</a> from their half year results investor pack also showed a big fall in interest-only loan borrowers.
Just 18 percent of their portfolio is IO compared with 26 percent this time last year and 36 percent in 2017.
NAB's IO loans have dropped to <a href="/news/nab-housing-lending-revenue-continues-to-drop-and-shareholders-pay-the-price">26 percent of their loan book</a>.
Some 84 percent of Westpac's entire portfolio has an 80 pecent or lower LVR.
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Westpac announced a reported profit of $3,173 million for 1H19.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/6/WESTPAC-IO.jpg" alt="">
Cash earnings, the Group’s preferred measure of earnings, was $3,296 million, down 22%. 
The Group’s performance in 1H19 was impacted by major remediation and restructuring items: including provisions for estimated customer refunds, payments and associated costs of $617 million (after tax); and costs associated with the reset of Westpac’s wealth strategy announced on 19 March 2019 ($136 million after tax). Excluding these items cash earnings was down 5%.
Westpac Group CEO, Mr Brian Hartzer said it was "a disappointing result reflecting weaker business conditions and the bank dealing decisively with outstanding issues, including remediation and resetting our wealth strategy.”
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Westpac sees IO loans shink to 31 percent of home loan portfolio

<html><body>
Large housing price falls in parts of Australia mean some borrowers are facing negative equity – where the outstanding balance on the loan exceeds the value of the property it is secured against.
Negative equity creates vulnerabilities both for borrowers and lenders, the RBA recently noted in a research paper.
A borrower having difficulty making loan repayments who has negative equity cannot fully repay their debt by selling the property.
Negative equity also implies that banks are likely to bear losses in the event that a borrower defaults.
Evidence from Australia and abroad suggests that borrowers who experience an unexpected fall in income are more likely to default if their loan is in negative equity, the RBA financial stability review indicated.
"At present, the incidence of negative equity remains low," the report said.
"Given the large increases in housing prices that preceded recent falls and the decline in the share of mortgages issued with high loanto-valuation ratios (LVRs), housing prices would need to fall significantly further for negative equity to become widespread.
"However, even if this did occur, increased defaults would be unlikely if the unemployment rate remains low, particularly given the improvements in loan serviceability standards over recent years.
"Few loans are currently in negative equity despite sizeable housing price declines Estimating the share of borrowers with negative equity requires data on current loan balances and property values."
The RBA’s Securitisation Dataset contains the most extensive and timely data on loan balances and purchase prices.
These data can be combined with regional data on housing price movements to estimate the share of loans that are currently in negative equity.
This suggests that nationally, around 2.75% of securitised loans by value are in negative equity (just over 2% of borrowers).
The highest rates of negative equity are in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, where there have been large price falls in areas with high exposure to mining activity.
Almost 60% of loans in with negative equity are in Western Australia or the Northern Territory. Rates of negative equity in other states remain very low (Graph B1).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%201.JPG" alt="">
Estimates of negative equity from the securitisation dataset may, however, be under or overstated, the RBA financial stability review acknowledges.
"They could be understated because securitised loans are skewed towards those with lower LVRs at origination.
"In contrast, the higher prevalence of newer loans in the dataset compared to the broader population of loans, and not being able to take into account capital improvements on values, will work in the other direction."
It noted some private surveys estimate closer to 10% of mortgage holders are in negative equity.
However, these surveys are likely to be an overestimate for a number of reasons; for instance, by not accounting for offset account balances. Information from bank liaison and estimates based on 2017 data from the Household Incomes and Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) survey suggest rates of negative equity are broadly in line with those from the Securitisation Dataset.
The continuing low rates of negative equity outside the mining exposed regions reflect three main factors: the previous substantial increases in housing prices; the low share of housing loans written at high LVRs; and the fact that many households are ahead on their loans, having accumulated extra principal payments.
Housing prices in some areas of Sydney and Melbourne have fallen by upwards of 20% from their peak in mid to late 2017.
But the RBA review noted only a small share of owners purchased at peak prices, and many others experienced price rises before property prices began to fall.
Properties purchased in Sydney and Melbourne since prices peaked account for around 2% of the national dwelling stock.
Looking further back, properties purchased in these two cities since prices were last at current levels still only account for around 4½% of the dwelling stock.
Few recent borrowers had high starting LVRs.
Over the past five years, the share of loans issued by ADIs with LVRs above 90 has roughly halved.
Since 2017, it has averaged less than 7% (Graph B2).
Around 80% of ADI loans are issued with an LVR of 80 or less. Around 15% of owner-occupier borrowers and 20% of investors take out a loan with a starting LVR of exactly 80.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%202.JPG" alt="">
Given most borrowers do not have high starting LVRs, housing price falls need to be large for widespread negative equity.
The review noted only 15% of regions have experienced price declines of 20% or more from their peaks.
Around 90% of these regions are in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory.
"If a borrower has paid off some of their debt, then price declines will need to be larger still for them to be in negative equity.
"Most borrowers have principal and interest loans that require them to pay down their debt and many borrowers are ahead of their repayment schedule."
Around 70% of loans are estimated to be at least one month ahead of their repayment schedule, with around 30% ahead by two years or more.
When a borrower is behind on repayments and their loan is in negative equity, banks classify the loan as ‘impaired’.
Banks are required to raise provisions against potential losses from impaired loans through ‘bad and doubtful debt’ charges.
Currently the proportion of impaired housing loans is very low, at 0.2% of all residential mortgages, despite having increased of late (Graph B3).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%203.JPG" alt="">
Negative equity is concentrated in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory
Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory together account for around 90% of all mortgage debt in negative equity.
These states have regions that experienced large and persistent housing price falls over several years.
"This has often been coupled with low income growth and increases in unemployment, which have reduced the ability of borrowers to pay down their loans," the RBA financial stability review indicated.
"Loans currently in negative equity were, on average, taken out around five years ago and had higher average LVRs at origination, of around 85%.
"This made them particularly susceptible to subsequent falls in property values."
Investment loans are also disproportionately represented, despite typically having lower starting LVRs than owner-occupier loans.
Investors are more likely to take out interest-only loans in order to keep their loan balance high for tax purposes.
Around 10% of loans in negative equity have interest only terms expiring in 2019, which is double the share for loans in positive equity.
For these borrowers, the increase in repayments from moving to principal and interest may be difficult to manage, especially as loans in negative equity are already more likely to be in arrears.
Having more borrowers in this scenario is distressing for the borrowers themselves and for the communities they live in.
However, it is unlikely to represent a risk to broader financial stability given it remains largely restricted to mining-exposed regions, which represent a very small share of total mortgage debt.
Further significant housing price falls in Sydney and Melbourne would see negative equity increase, but widespread defaults are unlikely, the RBA financial stability review suggested.
Continued housing price falls would be expected to increase the incidence of negative equity, particularly if they affect borrowers with already high LVRs.
Around 11/4% of loans by number (and 13/4% of loans by value) have a current LVR between 95 and 100, making them likely to move into negative equity if there are further housing price falls (Graph B4).
However, compared to the international experience with negative equity during large property downturns, the incidence of negative equity in Australia is likely to remain low.
Negative equity peaked in the United States at over 25% of mortgaged properties in 2012 and in Ireland it exceeded 35%, as peak to trough price falls exceeded 30 and 50% respectively.
However, high origination LVRs were far more common in these countries than they have been in Australia.
Even if negative equity was to become more common in the larger housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne, impairment rates for banks are unlikely to increase significantly while unemployment and interest rates remain low.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/12/Negative%20Equity%204.JPG" alt="">
</body></html>

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Finance Insights

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News