<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> has lodged plans for a $750 million, three-tower mixed-use precinct that would complete the long-running redevelopment of Carlton's former Carlton United Breweries site.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/185-195-queensberry-street-carlton-vic-3053">46-78 Bouverie Street and 185-195 Queensberry Street</a> spans a 6,468 sqm site, the last remaining undeveloped parcels within the former brewery's 2007 masterplan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the development will comprise two purpose-built student accommodation towers and a third build-to-sell apartment tower above a shared commercial podium and basement.

Across the three towers, SP Setia is proposing 606 build-to-sell apartments and 1,499 student accommodation units containing 2,009 beds.

The apartments will sit in the tallest tower, which will rise nearly 200m and 55 storeys. It will become&nbsp;one of the more substantial new build-to-sell apartment projects at the northern edge of Melbourne's CBD.

The apartment mix is weighted toward smaller inner-city product, with 188 studios, 206 one-bedroom apartments, 192 two-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedroom apartments

<img alt="First look: SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8271bc87-1b0a-41b7-ac73-a425ee375261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/3_2.png?VersionId=G4lw23o90B1boX4k4dj7rdz2ZEajS9wy" />

Part of the precinct will be a large-scale&nbsp;3,684 sqm supermarket and a further 2,198 sqm of speciality retail, creating close to 5,900 sqm of new commercial space within the precinct.

But one of the biggest components of the proposal is what sits between the buildings.

Around 4,650 sqm, or roughly 72 per cent of the site, will be publicly accessible open space, incorporating plazas, pedestrian connections, landscaped laneways and retail spill-out areas.

The ground plane is intended to finally complete pedestrian connections envisaged when the CUB masterplan was first approved nearly two decades ago, stitching together Victoria Street, Queensberry Street, Bouverie Street and Swanston Street through the former brewery precinct.

Urbis said the development would "complete the CUB precinct", with the public realm providing important north-south and east-west connections through what is currently the final undeveloped portion of the masterplanned site.

SP Setia is also exploring a new linear park within the Bouverie Street road reserve, with the concept to be developed further with the City of Melbourne through the planning process.

The proposal is being pursued through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program under Clause 53.23 for significant residential development with affordable housing.

The planning report acknowledges the proposed heights exceed those contemplated under the original Comprehensive Development Plan and masterplan, but argues the built-form context has changed considerably over the past two decades.

Urbis said the three towers would instead create a stepped transition between Carlton and the Hoddle Grid, rising progressively from the 94.1-metre Tower One along the Queensberry Street edge to the 199.44-metre Tower Three closer to the established CBD-scale buildings to the south.

<img alt="SP Setia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e885a07a-592c-40fc-bf82-e6dbaf32da54" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.52.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7s_ErUkSKAdY1mAWp3GRZgMNCGtwhk5m" />

SP Setia plans to deliver the development across three stages.

Stage One would deliver the basement, podium and retail areas for the entire precinct alongside the first student tower. Tower Two would follow in Stage Two, before the 606-apartment Tower Three is delivered as the final stage.

If approved and delivered, the project would close out a redevelopment process that has been underway since the former brewery masterplan was approved in 2007, adding more than 2,600 student beds and apartments to a precinct already home to Swanston Central, the Barak Building, RMIT Design Hub and several large student accommodation developments.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

SP Setia plans three-tower finale for Carlton’s former CUB precinct

Melbourne developer Lowe Living is seeking to add to its growing bayside apartment pipeline, filing plans for a boutique eight-residence development in tightly held Middle Park.

Lowe Living, which has built much of its development portfolio across Melbourne's affluent bayside and south-east suburbs, is behind the plans for the 730 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/123-125-erskine-street-middle-park-vic-3206">123-125 Erskine Street</a>, just off Armstrong Street and within the Armstrong Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre.

The developer is seeking approval for a five-storey residential building above two basement levels, with just eight large-format apartments and 18 car spaces.

“This is a deliberately very different proposition for us,"&nbsp;Tim Lowe, Co-Founder of Lowe Living, said.

"Eight residences is exceptionally boutique, but that's precisely what this site calls for.

“There is a strong community in Middle Park and the surrounding suburbs who have spent decades building a life here. They no longer want the maintenance of a large period home, but they aren't prepared to compromise on space, quality or location. We think there is a real opportunity to capture that hyper local market. A site like this rarely comes to market.”

<img alt="Lowe " data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="875fe572-0f14-4d90-9e11-55b28dd07731" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.42.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GDNQRv9BfpR9r1zkZ5UDyUM4ZvpIksut" />

The low-density proposal has been designed by Cera Stribley and is being progressed through the Victorian Government's Great Design Fast Track pathway, having already secured eligibility from the Minister for Planning.

The Office of the Victorian Government Architect supported its eligibility after finding the proposal demonstrated consistency with the program's seven design principles, while the project's financial feasibility has also been independently confirmed by Invest Victoria.

The project is targeting the downsizer market, with the planning documents describing the homes as larger-format residences and noting the two penthouses could otherwise have been configured as four separate apartments.

<img alt="Lowe 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="60ab0987-2da6-4175-adac-315dcf6053c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bOCPH0B2MFwlmaRW.TTCF9TzyifgVoQI" />

The site has dual frontage to Erskine Street and Canterbury Place and currently comprises a collection of commercial buildings used as offices, including a former heritage bakehouse, a former stable, a later gabled addition and a central courtyard.

It sits within the Commercial 1 Zone and the Armstrong Street Commercial Precinct heritage overlay, with the existing property classified as a contributory heritage place.

Heritage has subsequently played a significant role in Cera Stribley's design.

The front section of the former bakehouse facing Erskine Street will be retained, including its return walls, street-facing hipped roof and chimneys, while the Erskine Street façade and part of the western return wall of the former stable will also be incorporated into the new development.

Levels four and five will be set back five metres from the retained stable façade, while bricks removed through demolition are proposed to be salvaged and reused within the new building where possible.

<img alt="Lowe 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e97927a9-a2de-4a0f-83b6-65451238abfa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-21%20at%208.43.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VR44AChLrX9q1XPB9GvVQV.ALXXbe4gC" />

Rather than presenting as a single five-storey building to Erskine Street, Cera Stribley has broken the development into a series of distinct forms.

A three-storey infill element will sit between the retained bakehouse and stable façades, with the upper levels recessed behind the heritage fabric. Canterbury Place will similarly feature two three-storey podium forms, separated by a central pedestrian accessway, before the upper two levels step back from the street.

A pedestrian through-link will run through the centre of the project between Erskine Street and Canterbury Place, creating entrances from both sides of the site and introducing landscaping and communal areas through the ground plane.

Landscape architect Acre has designed planting across the ground level, private terraces and upper levels, including a feature canopy tree at level three and integrated planting and arbours across the level four terraces. Five existing Erskine Street trees are proposed to be retained.

Sustainability is also a significant component of the Great Design Fast Track application. The apartments are targeting an average eight-star NatHERS rating, with no residence below 6.5 stars, while the project has achieved a 75 per cent BESS score. Seven of the eight apartments are designed for cross-ventilation, with the remaining residence using mechanically assisted natural ventilation.

The plans also incorporate an 8kWp rooftop solar system, a 5,000-litre rainwater tank and infrastructure allowing future electric vehicle charging for every residence.

Lowe has a strong portfolio across Melbourne's blue-chip suburbs. They recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House by Lowe Living</a> in Camberwell, their first development in the Stonnington LGA.

Lowe Living unveils Middle Park apartment development

Article summary

<ul data-end="888" data-start="289">
	<li data-end="442" data-section-id="8tsh6o" data-start="289">DVB Projects is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway at 137 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach.</li>
	<li data-end="573" data-section-id="1nyxl3e" data-start="443">The 34-level tower will comprise just 49 ultra-luxury residences, including half-floor, full-floor and penthouse apartments.</li>
	<li data-end="717" data-section-id="oiyimj" data-start="574">The launch follows strong demand at DVB's nearby Sea Glass project, which is more than 50 per cent sold and currently under construction.</li>
	<li data-end="888" data-section-id="epk9o9" data-start="718">The development adds to the transformation of Old Burleigh Road, with premium beachfront apartment projects continuing to reshape the tightly held Broadbeach strip.</li>
</ul>

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dvb-projects">DVB Projects</a> is preparing to launch its second Gold Coast apartment development, with demolition now underway on the Broadbeach site as the Sydney developer moves closer to bringing the ultra-luxury project to market.

The 34-level tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/137-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">137 Old Burleigh Road</a> will comprise just 49 residences, ranging from half-floor apartments through to full-floor homes and a penthouse. The launch follows the strong sales performance of DVB's nearby Sea Glass development. More than half of the apartments at Sea Glass, on the other side of Broadbeach, have been snapped up, well ahead of its late 2027 completion

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2944b4be-c84e-4b54-8dc1-c712e76704c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E02_Exterior_Street%20Level%20Entrance.jpg?VersionId=YoNig7pRdrE3HCue7sUj78LzJteeQf3H" />

The start of demolition at 137 Old Burleigh Road signals DVB Projects’ underlying confidence in the Gold Coast’s luxury beachside apartment sector.

“We see the Gold Coast as one of the most compelling lifestyle markets in Australia, particularly at the premium end where demand continues to deepen,” said Dean Brown, Managing Director of DVB.&nbsp;

“This project has been carefully designed to respond to that demand - delivering large-format residences with a level of quality, privacy and amenity that is still relatively rare in the apartment market on the beachside."

Brown says the site itself is "exceptional."

"Old Burleigh Road is one of the most tightly held beachfront strips, and opportunities to deliver a project of this scale and calibre in this location are extremely limited.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="398f377a-c037-455e-9250-0c5e0d84c35b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/I12_FF%20Balcony.jpg?VersionId=NwOiRWGMubR1c8wthuEfggklcja7al9." />

The project will comprise 40 half-floor residences of approximately 260 sqm, alongside eight full-floor residences spanning around 524 sqm.

A single penthouse will crown the building, featuring a private pool, barbecue area, indoor gym and dedicated entertaining spaces.

Residents will have access to a resort-style suite of amenities, including a 20-metre pool with daybeds, a gymnasium, hot and cold plunge pools, a sauna, and private residents’ lounge and dining facilities.

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1642bb0-9a66-4427-a022-dfc0988c6287" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/A02_Pool%20to%20View.jpg?VersionId=c0IXPyn_Gp_Kn3XCwzMrqIVkAdCEwVXP" />

Sales agent Todd Matheson, of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a>, which is marketing both 137 Old Burleigh Road and Sea Glass, said 137 Old Burleigh Road would address a clear gap in the market for genuine luxury products.

“There are very few opportunities on the Gold Coast where buyers can secure a residence of this size and quality in a new building,” Matheson said.

“What we’re seeing is a growing cohort of downsizers and interstate buyers who still want space - they’re not willing to compromise on living area, entertaining or finishes.

“This project has been designed with that buyer in mind. It offers the scale of a home, combined with the convenience and security of apartment living, in one of the coast’s most desirable positions.”

<img alt="DVB Projects to commence demolition on $320m Broadbeach luxury tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="59aae0ca-5639-4320-8aca-d0bf60f48e43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/E01_Exterior%20Hero.jpg?VersionId=DS8Zfy2WtgUEtdfe0TEUuf1W1GfcZq8S" />

Located on a 1,156 sqm site one block from the beachfront, the development will replace an ageing walk-up building and is expected to contribute to the ongoing transformation of the Old Burleigh Road strip into one of the Gold Coast’s most prestigious residential corridors.

With the development moving into the delivery phase, 137 Old Burleigh Road is slated to hit the market later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145141]

DVB Projects to launch second Broadbeach apartment tower as demolition commences

<a data-end="327" data-is-only-node="" data-start="250" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/norus-projects" rel="noopener" target="_new">Norus Developments</a> has lodged plans for a new apartment development in Clayton that would add further momentum to the suburb's emerging Green Street corridor.

Plans have been lodged for the consolidated site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1359-1365-centre-road-clayton-vic-3168">1359-1365 Centre Road</a>, where Norus is seeking approval for 218 apartments across a 12-storey apartment building designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/life-architecture-and-urban-design">Life Architecture</a>.

The proposal sits within the Clayton Major Activity Centre at the threshold of the planned Green Street corridor, a landscaped pedestrian connection intended to improve links through the precinct towards Clayton Railway Station.

The development would replace the site's existing collection of low-scale residential and commercial buildings with a single consolidated building, introducing significantly greater housing density to this part of Centre Road.

A retail tenancy is proposed at ground level to activate the Centre Road frontage, accompanied by transparent street interfaces and landscaping intended to create a more pedestrian-focused edge to the development.

<img alt="First look: Norus Developments plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a5a763a-d9e9-4253-af2f-88008de27ebf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Clayton%20a.png?VersionId=S2WJJbat1XVkZwB9SnYtygirXgWHiklX" />

The building has been designed with stepped massing and upper-level setbacks to manage its transition towards surrounding residential properties. The planning report describes the approach as one that integrates the building into the landscape rather than treating landscaping as a secondary element.

"A strong landscape and public realm strategy underpins the proposal," Urbis states in the planning report.

"Public benefits include an affordable housing contribution, a new pocket park, generous landscaped setbacks, deep soil planting and integrated Water Sensitive Urban Design."

The report adds that these elements are intended to create "a permeable, pedestrian-focused ground plane that enhances walkability, supports urban cooling and reinforces the emerging Green Street character."

Biophilic and passive design principles extend through the residential levels, with planting, daylight, natural ventilation and views towards landscaped areas forming part of the amenity strategy.

Parking would be concentrated away from the public realm, with 145 car spaces proposed from the rear laneway rather than dominating the Centre Road frontage.

The proposal follows an extensive pre-application process with the City of Monash. Three formal meetings were held between the project team and Council from December 2025 to March 2026, with the scheme evolving through several concept iterations before the current design was lodged.

The project arrives as Clayton prepares for substantial change around its established activity centre and the wider Suburban Rail Loop precinct. Its position on Centre Road places the development within an existing concentration of shops, services and public transport, while the Green Street connection is intended to strengthen pedestrian access towards Clayton Railway Station.

First look: Norus plans landscape-led apartment project for Clayton’s emerging Green Street

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> has officially commenced construction on Bronze on Chevron, celebrating the sod turning of its first-ever Gold Coast development and marking a significant milestone in the company's continued expansion across South East Queensland.&nbsp;

Following the successful delivery of premium residential developments throughout Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bronze-on-chevron-8-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Bronze on Chevron</a> represents Gardner Vaughan Group's entry into the Gold Coast market. Bronze will deliver 119 one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments above two ground-level retail tenancies.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367193]

The recent sod turning ceremony was attended by Deputy Mayor Mark Hammel, President of the Surfers Paradise Surf Life Saving Club, Cassandra Sedgman, project consultants, purchasers, project partners and invited guests to celebrate the commencement of construction.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Betteridge said Bronze on Chevron represented an exciting new chapter for the business.&nbsp;

"We've spent almost four decades building homes that respond to the way people want to live, and we're excited to bring that experience to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>," Betteridge said.

"Bronze on Chevron is particularly significant because it marks Gardner Vaughan Group's first development on the Gold Coast following many successful projects across Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=107520 project_image_fid=367183]

Betteridge said the ground breaking is a proud moment for the&nbsp;team and their purchasers, who can now see their future homes beginning to take shape.&nbsp;

"As both developer and builder, we're able to oversee every aspect of the project from design through to construction, ensuring the quality and attention to detail Gardner Vaughan Group has become renowned for."&nbsp;

Designed by acclaimed architectural practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, Bronze on Chevron has been thoughtfully designed to complement Chevron Island's evolving streetscape while embracing its relaxed coastal lifestyle.

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=107520]

The development will offer generous residences with refined interiors, premium finishes and resort-style amenities, with completion anticipated in early 2029

Gardner Vaughan Group breaks ground on first Gold Coast development, Bronze on Chevron

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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NAB has just slashed several of its 2-year fixed rates for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest by 0.20 per cent.
For first home buyers NAB is offering 3.49 per cent, which is one of the lowest 2-year fixed rates available in Australia.
NAB is also offering $2,000 back on new loans of $250,000 or more.
This follows shortly after <a href="/news/anz-finally-cuts-fixed-home-loan-rates">ANZ cut rates</a> across several fixed rate home loans packages as of May 10.
ANZ was the last of the <a href="/news/westpac-joins-other-big-two-to-cut-fixed-home-loan-interest-rates">big four banks to reduce fixed rates</a> on home loans.
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said it was unusual to see one of the big four banks offer one of the lowest fixed rates in Australia.
“The fact that NAB, a big four bank, is offering one of the lowest fixed rates in Australia is a sign of the times,” she said.
“The big banks are now playing in the low cost loan space in a bid for new customers and they aren’t taking a backwards step.
RateCity data shows around 50 lenders have cut fixed rates in the last two months ahead of the expected RBA cut.
Some lenders are even moving variable rates in the week out from the RBA, including ING which moved rates today and Mortgage House, which now has the lowest ongoing variable rate in Australia of 3.29 per cent.  
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/30/NAB%20Slash%20rates.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/30/NAB%20Slash%20rates.JPG" alt="">
Note: All interest rates in the tables above are for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

NAB cuts two year fixed rates

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Despite the rejection of Labor's dangerous negative gearing tax experiment, there is no doubt property owner occupiers and investors face the prospect of an uncertain policy horizon.
Inevitably there will be higher taxes and fewer concessions in the years ahead.
All Federal governments, Coalition or ALP, along with state governments and local councils have become over reliant on the revenues from the property owning class.
Despite the continuing price downturn, recent ABS data highlighted their dependancy. Total NSW property tax revenue in 2017-18 was $8.3 billion in NSW.
Across Australia state and local governments collected more than $30 billion in taxes in 2017-18 – which was $9 billion higher than five years prior.
Cameron Kusher from CoreLogic did some analysis indicating it was five percent higher over the year, slightly slower than the eight percent prior year increase.
Land taxes ($9.153b) increased nine percent over the year and municipal rates ($18.4b) were up four percent.
Local government relies exclusively on property taxes, while state governments secure around 14% of their tax revenues from property.
These figures don’t include the property’s contribution through payroll taxes, and the Federal government's company tax, capital gains and GST.
As taxes such as stamp duty are inefficient, restrictive, and responsible in part for boosting housing prices, there's likely to be the need for comprehensive reform.
This will likely see a wider net of revenue raising across all property owners.
Presumably any reform will need to be discussed away from heated election campaigns seeking a bipartisan approach to come up with not just the right policy, but genuine grandfathering and the best time for introduction.
The recent campaign saw Bill Shorten attacking “vested interests” waging a “scare campaign” against his negative gearing policy pinpointing "real estate agents defending their commissions.” 
Unlike the subdued criticism during the 2016 boom time election, the Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen hit huge headwinds given the property market confidence was in decline.
Commentators including Peter Switzer were loudly suggesting the policy had the potential of sending property prices off a cliff on its January 2020 introduction along with seeing rents rise for tenants.
Mr Bowen's comments around negative equity didn't assist his case.
Defending the plan to scrap negative gearing entitlements for many would-be investors, Mr Bowen spoke on his own brush with negative equity.
“I mean sometimes lots of people go into negative equity when the housing market does fall," Bowen said.
“I remember when I first was in the housing market I went into negative equity for a while. You look at it carefully, but unless you actually sell, then you haven’t actually lost any money. The market does come back.”
Bowen had bought at Smithfield, in Sydney’s west, paying $470,000 in boom time May 2003. It was at the market peak, ahead of the 2004 crash. By mid-2004, Bowen was busy building a two storey home.
His negative equity comments were picked up by commentators as having “dubious logic," but Bowen dismissed the backlash saying homeowners were concerned their children and grandchildren got a fair go when they turned up at auctions and competed with investors.
The deputy Opposition leader Tanya Plibersek suggested first-home buyers needed to be shielded from investors buying their “30th investment property.”
It vastly overstated the investment landscape as 70 per cent of Australians who negatively gear own just the one property.
According to the Australian Taxation Office, less than one percent of the nation’s 1.3 million negatively geared investors own six properties or more.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Why Australian home owners still face higher property taxes?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s lowest ever Reserve Bank cash rate – 1.5% – is about to be consigned to history.
On Tuesday Governor Philip Lowe made it clear he plans to cut it in two weeks’ time. The money market cash rate (from which all other rates derive) will then fall to 1.25%.
After that, if betting in the market is right, he will cut the cash rate to just 1% by Christmas.
Speaking in Brisbane, Lowe said the Reserve Bank board <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-05-21" target="_blank">was of the view that</a>:
"Inflation was likely to remain low relative to the target, and that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate. 
"A lower cash rate would support employment growth and bring forward the time when inflation is consistent with the target. Given this assessment, at its meeting in two weeks’ time the board would consider the case for lower interest rates."
The bank is forecasting a tick up in economic growth from the present 2.3% to 2.75% by the end of the year and a fairly steady unemployment rate.
But here’s the thing. He was keen to emphasise that those forecasts only applied if he cut rates twice this year – that’s twice, before the end of the year.
<hr>
Reserve Bank cash rate since 1990
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275782/original/file-20190521-23832-y56vnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275782/original/file-20190521-23832-y56vnk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>
<hr>
He is planning to do it because the economy is weak, much weaker than his political masters suggested during the election campaign. Consumer spending is “unusually soft”.
"Over the past three years, household disposable income has increased at an average rate of just 2.75%. This compares with an average of 6% over the preceding decade.
"As this period of weak income growth has persisted, it has become harder for households to dismiss it as just a temporary development – as something that will pass quickly. The lower rate of income growth has also made it harder for households to pay down debt. The end result has been that many people have decided to adjust their spending plans."
The cuts are just the start
It isn’t much good cutting interest rates if mortgage rates don’t follow. That will be up to the banks. But until this week, even if they had passed it on, there would have been so many would-be borrowers it wouldn’t have helped.
That’s because, whatever the interest rate and whatever a would-be borrower’s ability to make payments, banks have generally refused to lend to anyone who couldn’t cope with a rate of 7.25%.
It’s been the doing of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority – one of the Reserve Bank’s sister organisations. It regulates banks and super funds and other institutions in order to keep the financial system stable.
In December 2014 it directed the institutions it supervises to impose serviceability assessments that incorporated a buffer of at least two percentage points above the loan product rate they were offering and a minimum floor rate of <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/141209-Letter-to-ADIs-reinforcing-sound-residential-mortgage-lending-practices.pdf">at least 7%</a>.
That meant that if new mortgage rates were 5%, as they were at the time, the lenders had to satisfy themselves that the borrower could cope with 7%. As new mortgage rates fell to 4.5% they still had to satisfy themselves that the borrower could cope with 7%.
Banks have needed unreasonably high buffers
APRA’s directive stated that “prudent practice would be to maintain a buffer and floor rate comfortably above these levels”, meaning that in practice most lenders wouldn’t lend to anyone who wasn’t able to cope with the mortgage rate climbing to 7.25%, no matter how unlikely that was becoming.
On Tuesday this week, a few hours before Governor Lowe delivered his speech, it wrote to the institutions again, <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/letter_consultation_on_revisions_to_prudential_practice_guide_apg_223_residential_mortgage_lending.pdf" target="_blank">telling them that</a>: "the low interest rate environment is now expected to persist for longer than originally envisaged. This may mean that the gap between actual rates paid and the floor rate may become unnecessarily wide."
It was proposing to remove “reference to a specific 7% floor”.
The required serviceability buffer would climb from 2% to 2.5%, and it would no longer expect lenders to use a rate “comfortably above” that buffer.
Soon, they’ll be able to lend more…
While strictly speaking the letter notified lenders of a one-month consultation period, what it really did was notify them that the changes were about to be implemented.
In recent months most new mortgage rates have been below 4.5%, with some high-quality borrowers able to get rates as low as 3.6%.
The new arrangements will allow banks to assess them on their ability to make payments on a 6% to 7% loan instead of a 7.25% loan.
Should the next two cash rate cuts be passed on, it would allow them to assess lenders on their ability to repay a 5.5% to 6.5% loan.
It would represent a substantial easing of credit standards for new borrowers.
..up to 10% more
My calculations suggest it would increase the borrowing capacity of home buyers by as much as 10%, enough to have a material positive impact on the housing market.
APRA’s move (almost certainly taken in consultation with the Reserve Bank) both makes a cut in the Reserve Banks’s cash rate less imperative and more potent.
As interest rates get lower, further cuts seem to have been losing their ability to get people and businesses spending and borrowing, something the Governor would have been thinking of when he referred in his speech to the “limitations” of relying on just one instrument to boost the economy.
It would also be up to the government to provide “additional fiscal support” (which means extra spending or tax cuts) including through spending on infrastructure and “policies that support firms expanding, investing and employing people”.
The first of his rate cuts, due in a fortnight, will have more impact than it would have had APRA not acted.
Or perhaps not as much as he would have hoped if the banks, carrying big costs as a result of the misdeeds uncovered in the royal commission, don’t pass it all on.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117500/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-interest-rates-is-just-the-start-its-about-to-become-much-much-easier-to-borrow-117500" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Cutting interest rates is just the start. It’s about to become much, much easier to borrow

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The proposed changes by APRA to its guidance on restrictions on borrowers repayment obligations will help the supply of new housing.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has proposed changes to its guidance to banks and Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) that will increase the maximum borrowing capacity for borrowers in relation to housing.
The regulator believes that the measures that were introduced at a time of heightened risk can now be reduced.
Rather than using an interest rate of 7% ADIs would be permitted to set their own minimum interest rate floor for use in serviceable assessments. APRA does still propose a buffer on interest rates and while stating that risk has reduced APRA is still concerned about high house prices, low interest rates, high household debt, and subdued income growth.
APRA also commented that there was too big a difference emerging between owner-occupier principal and interest loans compared to investor interest-only loans.
The Urban Taskforce is very supportive of APRA’s proposed changes as clearly house prices have dropped significantly in cities like Sydney and this is reducing confidence in the new housing market.
The re-election of the Morrison Government means negative gearing and capital gains tax will not change so more certainty is coming into the housing market. This greater certainty along with APRAs changes are positive signals for the housing sector.
To fully lift housing supply to the levels needed will also need support at state government level to ensure that levies on new homes are not excessive.
In Sydney the state government’s proposal to lift the cap on local infrastructure contributions from July 2020 could add $60,000 to the cost of each home or apartment. All levels of government must do their bit to ensure housing supply matches the need.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO.
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

APRA changes to mortgage lending good for housing supply: Chris Johnson

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
APRA’s scrapping of the 7% ‘stress test’ buffer on home loans will effectively see a 9% increase in borrowing capacity for owner-occupiers which will rise to between 13 and 14% if the RBA undertakes two interest rate cuts before the year is out.
With the current ultra-low interest rate and two interest rate cuts projected by the RBA, APRA’s 7% ‘stress test’ was a major barrier for borrowers in an already highly regulated and scrutinised lending environment. 
However, with the stress test reduced or removed, it would mean that if the interest rate for owner-occupiers was about 3.75%, they would pay about 6.25%, which would create a 9% borrowing capacity. 
If there are no interest rate cuts the increase in borrowing capacity will be an increase of around 4-5% for investors and for owner-occupiers about 9%. 
However, if the RBA cut rates twice, we will see an increase of around 9% for investors and potentially 13-14% for owner-occupiers.  
This will be a major boost to the market, especially as now the number one risk has been removed thanks to a Coalition win and the elimination of the threat of taxation changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. 
APRA’s introduced a 7% ‘floor assessment’ to the ADIs in December 2014 “to examine the resilience of the largest banks, individually and collectively, and to explore the potential impacts of grim and challenging periods of stormy economic weather”, according to APRA chairman Wayne Byres in July 2018.
While at that point of time this instruction to the ADIs was, indeed, required, this conservative approach could not be applied to the lending landscape of 2019.
In 2014, there was a tangible risk that in the foreseeable future interest rates might increase materially.
Further, a high proportion (44%) of the loans were interest-only and 12% of the loans had LVR of 90%.
That, alongside loose controls over the accuracy of the information provided by prospective borrowers in loan applications and reliance on the HEM to assess household expenses, provided justification for APRA’s instruction. 
The banks also applied a slightly higher rate of 7.25% to ensure they were above the minimum threshold.  
However, since then the lending environment had completely changed and APRA’s requirement had become ultra-conservative.  
Interest rates are now very low with a very high likelihood of additional cuts by the RBA, and no signs of increases in the foreseeable future.
A low interest rate environment has, effectively, become the ‘new normal’ in Australia. 
Loan applications are heavily scrutinised, lenders are applying more conservative credit policies, the proportion of interest-only loans is now low with only 16% of the new loans (December 2018) being interest-only and 7% of loans at 90%.
RiskWise Property Research analysis showed a reduction of at least 1% was needed in order to have some meaningful impact. This is equivalent of the APRA’s announced change, that, while taking a different approach, will put the effective floor assessment at 6.25% for owner-occupiers in the current lending market.  
For example, RiskWise undertook a case study of a scenario involving a married couple, who both receive average weekly earnings at their full-time jobs, and have two children. 
The couple require a loan of 30 years and their only expenses are either HEM or HEM X 1.5, and the assumption is they have no credit card repayments and other expenses.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/21/HEM%20table.jpg" alt="">
Source: Riskwise
Our analysis showed that due to the scrutinising of loan applications and by applying the effective 7.25% 'stress test' this materially reduced their borrowing capacity by 33%.
The borrowing capacity of $698,000, based on the HEM and 'floor assessment' of 7.25%, is equivalent to HEM X 1.5, with an interest rate of 2.87%. 
As a result, the couple would have to totally re-assess their entire purchasing strategy. 
So APRA’s change is equivalent to the required reduction in the floor assessment that has the right balance between having a meaningful impact, while still having good risk-management practices.
DORON PELEG is the CEO of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/Visit%20www.riskwiseproperty.com.au" target="_blank">RiskWise Property Research</a>.
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APRA move to scrap stress test increases borrower power: Doron Peleg

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Westpac has revised the forecast it released on February 21 that the RBA would cut the cash rate in August and November to June and August.
On February 21, Westpac forecast that the Reserve Bank would cut the cash rate by 50 basis points in two tranches – August and November. Since then markets and forecasters have largely moved in that direction.
We have not changed that forecast since that date.
However, we are announcing an adjustment to the forecast to bring forward the first cut to the June Board meeting with the second cut to follow in August.
We then expect the cash rate to remain on hold through 2020.
This change in forecast reflects the lift in the unemployment rate for April from 5.1% to 5.2% and the confirmation from the Governor that the Board would be closely following developments in the labour market with the primary focus on the unemployment rate.
The Governor’s thinking has evolved over the year to accept that, as we have observed in other countries, upside inflation risks are consistent with a lower unemployment rate than had previously been assessed. For Australia the Bank had believed that the key unemployment rate was 5% - he now accepts that he can drive the economy harder with an associated lower unemployment rate without risking any inflation overshoot.
Recall that the current forecast for the unemployment rate is 5% to end 2020, (falling to 4.75% by June 2021), based on market pricing, which in the May Board Minutes is assessed as “the cash rate was expected to be lowered by 25 basis points within the next three months and again by the end of 2019”.
In his speech “the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy”, released today, he gives the strong guidance that “at our meeting in two weeks’ time, we will consider the case for lower rates".
Recall that other aspects of the Bank’s current forecasts are underwhelming despite the assumption around lower rates – 2.6% growth in 2019; 1.75% trimmed mean inflation in 2019; and 5% unemployment rate by end 2019.
With the June rate cut virtually locked in, the issue is why we expect a follow up move in August.
Firstly, that timing is a little more aggressive than was used in the May SOMP and therefore could reasonably be associated with somewhat more optimistic forecasts.
Secondly, we expect that the June quarter trimmed mean inflation print (released on July 31) will be 0.4% indicating that underlying inflation will print 0.7% for the first half of 2019, making it difficult to persist with a 1.75% forecast for underlying inflation in 2019 – downgrading the underlying inflation forecast to 1.5% in 2019 will make it difficult for the RBA to credibly forecast a return to 2% inflation in 2020.
The Bank may choose to persist with overly optimistic forecasts but will need to ease again to emphasise its inflation targeting credentials.
This second cut would also be consistent with the assumptions that have underpinned the May forecasts .
Key to Westpac’s rate cut forecast on February 21 was the expectation that the unemployment rate was likely to reach 5.4% by end 2019. Our work around the weakness in the cyclical parts of the labour market (around 60% of employment) which is already apparent and recent trends in the business surveys signal that the softening in the labour market can be expected to become more apparent in the next few months.
We also expect that the March quarter GDP report (released June 5) will confirm the Bank’s recent downbeat assessment of the consumer (consumer spending growth in 2019 revised down from 2.5% in February to 2.0% in May) and note that the May Minutes see downside risks to the consumption forecasts.
Note also that the May Minutes point to downside risks for the global economy and confirmed in today’s speech.
Looking further out it is important that the Governor stressed the importance of the exchange rate in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Accordingly, in order to extract ongoing “dividend” from the rate cut cycle it seems likely that the August RBA decision will not preclude further action.
However, our current assessment is that with the housing market stabilising in 2020 and the RBA uncertain about the impact of sub 1% cash rate on the economy the eventual low point in the cycle will prove to be 1%. This view is consistent with our original call back in February this year.
Our forecast low point of USD0.68 for the AUD which printed in our report on February 21 was predicated on the two cuts – the change in the timing of the cuts does not materially affect that call.
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Westpac tips interest rate cuts in both June and August: Bill Evans

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The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) has welcomed the announcement of support for first home buyers through a First Home Loan Deposit Scheme.
REIA President Adrian Kelly said the scheme initially announced by the Government and supported by the Opposition will start on 1 January next year and assist first home buyers with their deposit.
“Under the proposal, first home owners will be able to buy their first home with a deposit of 5% compared to 20% which has become the industry norm post the Hayne Royal Commission,” Kelly said.
“Not only will the scheme see first home buyers achieve their home ownership much earlier it will save them a considerable amount of around $10,000 by not having to pay lenders mortgage insurance.
“The scheme addresses two hurdles facing first home buyers – the deposit gap and transaction costs which include mortgage insurance – in a practical way.
“The last time the Federal Government introduced a special measure for first home buyers was the First Home Buyers Boost during the GFC.
“This measure saw first home buyers, as a percentage of total loans financed, increase from 20.2% in October 2008 to 31.4% in May 2009.
“With first home buyers currently representing just 17.9% of total housing loan approvals at the beginning of this year, the measure will be a timely boost not just for first home buyers but for the building sector and the economy in general.
“It is direct assistance like this rather than changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax which provide better outcomes for all.”
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First home buyer scheme a timely boost for mortgage industry: REIA

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Perhaps the most woefully misunderstood economic issue of the election campaign has been negative gearing.
I’ve been baffled by the number of times I’ve read commentary by otherwise thoughtful people describing negative gearing as a distortion to the property market – as a rort we need to crack down on.
But as someone who knows a bit about the economics of taxation, I can say that simply isn’t true.
Negative gearing is a natural, orthodox and proper feature of any market for investment. And allowing negative gearing to be tax deductible is an essential component of an efficient tax system.
Negative gearing isn’t an account in the Cayman Islands
Negative gearing is a funny term. If you search online, you won’t find the term used in most parts of the world. Not because it’s not allowed, but because the term makes it sound grander than it is. In reality, negative gearing is nothing special – it’s boring and conventional.
If it didn’t have a fancy name, perhaps so many column inches wouldn’t have been wasted writing about it. And maybe we wouldn’t have cast it as a villain that must be slain.
When you buy an asset (such as a home), you bear costs (such as interest) in exchange for two types of return: cash (such as rent) and a rise in value (called a capital gain).
To tax the entire return, we should add up the rent and capital gain over the life of the asset and deduct the interest, maintenance and depreciation expenses.
The capital gain might not be achieved for years – not until the asset is sold, so the total might come out negative for some years while the interest and other expenses exceed the rent received (that’s all “negative gearing” is).
Ordinary people do it
This needn’t mean you’re a wild speculator. With a 20% deposit, 4% interest rate and 3% annual rental yields seen in Sydney recently, you’d be running a loss until you sold.
Investors should be able to deduct this loss from their other income, or carry it forward to future years if they don’t have income that year.
This is completely orthodox economics. It ensures tax applies equally to the upside and downside of an investment (or it would, if the eventual capital gain wasn’t only half taxed – more on that later).
Restricting this will depress investment. Fewer investors will buy investment properties and those without the ability to negatively gear will spend less on maintenance and the like.
Fewer buyers of homes will mean lower prices for homes. How much lower is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/confirmation-from-nsw-treasury-labors-negative-gearing-policy-would-barely-move-house-prices-116736" target="_blank">matter of debate</a>.
Removing it could push prices down, and up
On the other hand, in order to support the building of new homes, Labor will allow investors in new homes to continue to benefit from negative gearing, outlawing it only for new investors in existing homes. That’ll push up the price of new homes, and encourage the building of more new homes than are needed.
Some have blamed negative gearing for house prices that are far higher than they should be. While there’s no good evidence on that, it’s surely true that prices are higher with negative gearing than without it.
But rather than being the root cause of the housing affordability crisis – of prices that are higher than they should be – negative gearing is really more of a catalyst.
It’s an enabler rather than a problem
The real culprit is the generous 50% discount on the taxation of capital gains. It means that while losses can be written off at the full tax rate, the eventual gain is taxed at only half the full rate.
Winding back the capital gains tax concession was recommended by the <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=html/pubs_reports.htm" target="_blank">Henry Tax Review</a>, was hinted at in the Treasury <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/c2015-rethink-dp-TWP_combined-online.pdf" target="_blank">tax discussion paper</a> commissioned by Coalition Treasurer Joe Hockey, and has been <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing" target="_blank">adopted by Labor</a>.
The focus of taxation when it comes to housing should be on neutrality – that decisions of whether to invest in housing are just as they would be if there were no taxes. A lower capital gains tax discount would come closer to doing that. Then negative gearing could stay.
The goal of tax policy should be neither to support nor depress house prices, but rather to let the market evolve on its own. Negative gearing can be part of that.
Steven Hamilton, Visiting Scholar, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-surprise-negative-gearing-isnt-a-rort-but-something-else-is-117247" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Negative gearing isn’t a rort — but something else is: Steven Hamilton

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The property market will remain weak well into 2020 unless the RBA cuts interest rates and these are passed on by the banks.
However, it was the introduction of lending restrictions by APRA, followed by the greater scrutinisation of loan applications as a result of the Royal Commission, that was the catalyst for the downturn, has just released its latest Quarterly Risks &amp; Opportunities Report.
Tighter lending standards, the findings of the Banking Royal Commission, political uncertainty, fears of the potential changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, restrictions on foreign investors, unit oversupply and large falls in dwelling commencements had all had a material impact on the property market.
The major risks associated with residential property have, and continue to be, significantly increased in comparison to the risk levels in the long term.
This is due to a combination of factors that are changing the face of the property landscape with no price increases and significant improvement expected until at least the end of 2020.
There’s an 80 per cent chance the ALP will come into power at the forthcoming Federal election and this win will see the implementation of their policy to limit negative gearing to new housing only and reduce the discount on capital gains tax from the current 50 per cent to 25 per cent to come into effect on January 1, 2020.
This will simply make property investment, in both existing and new dwellings, by far less attractive.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/Visit%20www.riskwiseproperty.com.au" target="_blank">RiskWise</a> demonstrated that fears of the proposed changes have already impacted the market with price reductions accelerating following the Liberal Party leadership spill in August last year. In addition, auction clearance rates dropped below 50 per cent towards the end of 2018 in both Sydney and Melbourne and are currently in the low to mid-50s.
Buyer sentiment had been greatly diminished with strong reductions in activity by investors who realised they had to wait for the election results, the implementation of the taxation policy, and a new low equilibrium point to be reached, before they could act.
Investors understand the potential increases to out-of-pocket expenses due to the taxation changes, which are equivalent to a significant and sudden interest rate increase of 1.15 per cent in the Sydney unit market.
RiskWise analysis shows there is an 80 per cent likelihood the RBA will cut interest rates during the second half of 2019 with a further cut before the end of the year or early 2020, with the banks ‘highly likely to pass them fully on to borrowers’. 
This will significantly reduce price reductions, particularly in the Sydney and Melbourne markets, and increase demand in the markets that have shown resilience and already enjoy good demand. Interest rate cuts have a direct impact on out-of-pocket expenses and also have an impact on buyer sentiment, particularly investors.
GDP growth is also below target, largely due to a reduction in dwelling commencements, and a drop in consumer sentiment has an impact on household spending.
In fact, according to ABS data, there has been a major reduction in household wealth, driven by a reduction of land and property values. While household wealth is falling, the household-debt-to-income ratio hit a new record just shy of 200 per cent.
While APRA has removed the 30 per cent interest-only lending cap, this is unlikely to have a material impact on the housing market. Banks will continue to mitigate the risks associated with interest-only loans in a market where the majority of the properties that are purchased or re-financed are depreciating assets.
In addition, there is a 7 per cent stress test (where many lenders set the stress test at 7.25 per cent) when it comes to the ability to service a loan making it extremely difficult to get approval from lenders.
Negative equity has also become a major risk, particularly for lenders who have concentration of loans in weak markets within Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Also, the majority of the properties that have been purchased in Sydney and Melbourne in the past couple of years have depreciated in value and properties that have loan-to-value ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent or more carry a high level of risk of negative equity.
The next quarter will be crucial for the housing market due to the election results and expected high level of certainty regarding RBA’s interest rate cuts, but expect the weak outlook to continue.
Macro-economic measures, particularly in relation to Consumer Price Index (CPI), employment and GDP growth will play central roles in whether there would be an interest rate reduction sooner rather than later.
Our analysis shows us however, that at least for the foreseeable future, and especially with the likely introduction of the taxation changes, that the weak housing market will continue with high levels of apartment supply, combined with low sales volumes, and a continuous reduction in dwelling commencements, that will help to absorb the high level of supply gradually over time.
State-by-State Overview:
In New South Wales, the combined effects of unaffordable housing, poor investment serviceability ratio and lending restrictions have led to a quick reduction in house and unit prices. In addition, there has been a significant reduction in investor activity. Without RBA interest rate cuts and / or a Labor loss in the federal election, Sydney is likely to experience continuous price reductions over the next couple of years, with an estimated annual reduction of 4-6 per cent for both this year and 2020. Some regional areas, however, are likely to hold well. An RBA interest rate cuts is likely to mitigate price reductions.
Victoria has the highest population growth in the country, enjoys a solid economy and a healthy job market. However, like NSW, dwelling prices have fallen, although to a lesser extent, as have auction clearance rates. Again, this fall can be attributed to the same factors as that of NSW – lending restrictions, significantly lower investor activity, fear of changes to the current taxation regime and expectations of price reductions. Therefore, without RBA interest rate cuts that are much needed to support this market and / or a Labor loss in the federal election, over the next couple of years, the prospect for the Melbourne housing market is negative with annual price reductions in the order of 4-7 per cent for both this year and 2020. However, a number of regional areas, in particular Geelong and Ballarat, which deliver solid capital growth, present only a low level of risk and are projected to continue delivering solid capital growth both in the short and long term.
The Australian Capital Territory delivered good economic growth and experienced the second largest population growth rate in the country, delivering capital growth and a relatively resilient property market. While growth rates have decelerated in recent months, dwellings in the ACT present a relatively low level of risk for major price reductions and are projected to deliver modest capital growth in the next couple of years. Houses are still enjoying, and likely to continue to do so, some capital growth while the unit market remains reasonable, although it does carry a higher degree of risk to deliver negative growth in the short term, particularly due to its reliance on investor activity.
The modest growth pace in the Queensland housing market continues although for units remains poor or negative. Some areas, particularly in South-East QLD including the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast, enjoy good population growth and healthy demand for houses. Other areas, such as Central QLD, are still experiencing poor demand for dwellings, very high vacancy rates and a very soft property market. An oversupply of units in inner Brisbane makes this market particularly susceptible to the impact of potential taxation changes. Other areas that have a high supply of new units also present high levels of risk, particularly where there are relatively affordable houses as, generally, houses are significantly preferred dwelling alternatives.
The South Australian economy has shown some improvement but still has a high effective unemployment rate which has led to very low population growth and soft housing demand meaning only modest capital growth is forecast for houses. However, houses in popular areas, such as Adelaide Central and Hills carry a low level of risk and are projected to deliver solid long-term returns. Some areas have unit oversupply and are experiencing weakness, particularly Adelaide CBD where poor growth is forecast.
In Western Australia, lending restrictions had the most impact thanks to its weaker economy. Perth prices, which had stabilised, began to fall once again. The impact is expected to increase if a blanket approach is also taken when implementing the proposed taxation changes. While the state’s economy has returned to positive growth, a combination of a very high effective unemployment rate, low population growth and a significantly below-average economic activity level has resulted in price reductions for both houses and units. Finally, units carry a very high risk due to the combination of oversupply, lending restrictions and low demand, particularly in central Perth.
Tasmania leads the country in investment serviceability with its high median rental returns and low average dwelling price. However, Hobart has gone off the boil, with CoreLogic figures showing a 0.9 per cent slide of dwelling prices last month. Houses fell 1.2%, while unit growth was only 0.3% in March. A significant increase in dwelling prices in recent years, less affordable housing, decelerated price growth, fewer people turning up to open home inspections and fewer inquiries on listings, indicate that housing affordability has made an impact and that the growth rate was unsustainable. It is projected to significantly decelerate in 2019 and further into 2020, with some areas likely to deliver very low or negative capital growth.
The Northern Territory experienced poor population growth resulting in negative dwelling growth and a very soft property market. Poor demand for dwellings and price reductions, combined with a relatively high median household income have resulted in the most affordable dwellings (i.e. the lowest price-to-income ratio) in the country. The property market is projected to remain soft, particularly for units. Furthermore, it is likely that the NT housing market will be a victim of unintended consequences from the blanket implementation of the potential taxation changes that will further reduce investor activity.
DORON PELEG is the CEO of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/Visit%20www.riskwiseproperty.com.au" target="_blank">RiskWise Property Research</a>
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Interest rate cuts and election results keys to property market: Doron Peleg 

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The next three RBA meetings are clearly live for a rate cut, says the NAB's Alan Oster.
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With its outlook for below trend growth, and below target inflation combined with little further improvement in the labour market, NAB expect the RBA to cut rates twice in 2019, taking the cash rate to a new record low of 1%.
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"We expect a cut by at least August."
"We have left our call for the first cut as July, with a follow up in November." 
However, with the RBA still looking for an improvement in the labour market and monthly figures often volatile, NAB recognise that the timing of the first cut will be especially data dependent.
"On the one hand a marked deterioration in upcoming labour market data as well as weaker national accounts partials, could see the cut brought forward to next month.
"Against that a cut could be delayed to August when the Bank will have observed another quarter of likely weaker GDP growth, a further update on the CPI and a revised set of staff forecasts ahead of the next SMP."
NAB noted labour market indicators should be closely watched, as a turn in the labour market could reasonably be 1.0 expected given the prior slowing in output growth.
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The NAB Survey measure of employment weakened in April and job ads appear to have fallen.
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The NAB reported the impact of the downturn in the housing market was "affecting both output and inflation data.
"The cooling appears to be ongoing, with prices continuing to decline and building approvals continuing to trend down."
NAB expect dwelling investment to record another decline in Q1 following the relatively sharp fall in the last quarter of 2018. 
"Overall we expect dwelling investment to decline by around 20% over the next two years. 
"Alongside this, we expect house prices to decline by another 5% nationally over 2019 and early 2020 before levelling out for a period."
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The report noted capital city house prices have now fallen by almost 10% since peaking in late 2017. 
"These declines have been led by Sydney (down 15%) and Melbourne (down 11%) where the role of investors is much larger and prices saw a much more significant rise. 
"That said, recent months have seen price declines broaden to the other states, with Brisbane and Adelaide having now declined over the year in addition to the ongoing weakness in Perth. In Hobart growth has slowed, but the city remains the standout, with prices remaining well up on a year ago," Alan Oster said.
On the activity side, building approvals continued their trend decline in March, unwinding the spike a month earlier. 
Over the past year approvals are 27% lower and are now 37% below their peak in 2017.
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The decline in approvals is evident across both houses and apartments down 19% and 57% respectively from their peaks in 2017. 
The decline in approvals suggests that activity in the sector will weigh on growth overall as the pipeline of outstanding work is completed.
NAB noted alongside the cooling in the market, housing credit growth has continued to slow. 
Investor lending slowed to just 0.7% y/y in March 2019, while growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers is tracking a little higher but has slowed to 5.7%. 
Overall housing credit has risen by 4.0% over the past year. 
ABS data on the value of new loan approvals has continued to trend down suggesting that credit growth will likely weaken a little further over coming months.
"To date, the adjustment in the housing market appears to have occurred in an orderly fashion – and may have served to reduce the prior build up of risk in the sector," Alan Oster said.
"We see the weakness in prices as having been driven by the earlier tightening driven APRA restrictions, a waning in foreign investor demand as well as affordability constraints themselves. 
"In addition it appears that there are some pockets of oversupply. 
"Going further, we see the cooling in the market continuing with prices declining a little further and also a notable downturn in the construction cycle. 
"Beyond this, we are closely watching for any additional spill overs from this sector to other sectors."
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