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GUEST OBSERVER
On Monday, a scarifying account of Tony Abbott’s prime ministership appears in the bookshops. By journalist Niki Savva, The Road to Ruin: How Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin Destroyed Their Own Government will paint a graphic picture of political disaster.
In recent days we’ve seen Abbott step up to an intense level of activity. A 4000-word essay for Quadrant defending his government. A well-publicised dinner with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and effective endorsement of Japan’s bid for the submarine contract. Condemnation of the Safe Schools anti-bullying program in media comments.
And, most significant of all, an intervention in the tax debate at Tuesday’s Coalition partyroom meeting – the first time since losing the leadership he has weighed in at that forum on policy.
Some around the government see a link between the imminent appearance of the Savva book and what Abbott is doing – an attempt at putting his version of the past and seeking, to the extent possible, to erect firewalls. Regardless of whether they’re right, Abbott’s decision to inject himself into the tax debate has significant implications for Malcolm Turnbull.
Abbott is not a threat to Turnbull. But in the context of the volatile tax issue and a vociferous backbench, the amplified voice of a former leader is unhelpful.
Consider where Turnbull is on tax. With the GST change now overboard, he has had to retreat to a modest package. Options still on the table include trimming superannuation concessions, tightening negative gearing, and overhauling deductions, with proceeds used for limited income-tax cuts.
Given previous expectations about reform, many would find the result disappointing even if the government took up all these options. But some backbenchers are pushing back hard especially on negative gearing, buttressing their case by the argument – with obvious attractions for Turnbull – that it is easier to demolish Labor’s policy if the government stays with the status quo.
That was a point Abbott made strongly in the partyroom, when he endorsed the view of a colleague who had expressed discomfort about talk of capping negative gearing.
According to the regular post-meeting briefing, Abbott reminded the partyroom of “two truisms” – that “we don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem”, and “you can’t reduce taxes by raising taxes”. He said Turnbull in parliament had “brilliantly” destroyed the ALP’s tax proposals. But the corollary, he warned, was that the Coalition could not go down the same path itself – or its words would come back to haunt it.
Abbott instead urged the government go down the savings path; savings were very difficult, as the 2014 budget showed, “but we have to revisit that task”.
In another burst of wicked flattery, he said that with Turnbull’s communications skills and the new team, “this can be done and this is the challenge”. “We’re a low-taxing, small-government party, and these are the fundamentals for the cabinet to consider as we finalise the tax package.”
In a return of mutually insincere compliments, Turnbull said leadership was about both continuity and change, and many of the things the Turnbull government was doing represented continuity from the leadership shown by Abbott. He told Abbott that “Scott Morrison and I are completing the process of looking right across the board in our review of the tax system, which you and Joe Hockey started … continuing the process that you, Tony, so openly and courageously began.”
Turnbull finished by congratulating Abbott for opening up the tax debate. It was convenient to overlook that Morrison only recently said that when the new team came in, work had to start on a plethora of options which had been previously taken off the table.
One of those was negative gearing, which Abbott had not wanted touched, despite the inclination of Hockey. At least Abbott is being consistent in saying it should be protected, albeit either disingenuous or weak-headed in suggesting the new salesmen could sell extensive spending cuts before an election.
On negative gearing, the government has turned mute. Morrison is on record about its “excesses”. But Turnbull declined to be drawn on what they are, as the opposition pursued him on Tuesday. The normally imperturbable Finance Minister Mathias Cormann was uncomfortable when pushed on excesses. “The treasurer can talk for himself. I am the finance minister – I look after the expenditure side of the budget.”
Earlier at the party meeting, Morrison, still desperate to get enough money to address – even in a small way – bracket creep, said: “When it comes to tax policy we are dancing on the top of a pin head. We have very few options. There is no burden-free decision in the tax debate. If you choose not to act, you will nevertheless be acting by default and increasing the income tax rate through bracket creep.
“Let no-one think that doing nothing on the tax debate is without consequences.”
A frustrated Morrison might feel he’s on a pin head. For Turnbull – with Tuesday’s Essential poll joining Newspoll in having the Coalition and Labor tied on 50-50 – it feels more like a barb-wire fence.
Michelle Grattan is professorial fellow, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michelle-grattan-20316" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull wield swords of flattery in negative gearing tax face-off

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GUEST OBSERVER
There have been no surprises from the RBA which left interest rates on hold at its March meeting. This marks the tenth month in a row with the cash rate remaining at 2 percent.
In its Statement accompanying the decision, the RBA made very little changes: continuing to sound less upbeat on the global economic outlook, acknowledging the volatility in financial markets, continuing to see inflation remaining low and seeing property price gains 
in Sydney and Melbourne as having moderated.
The RBA also indicated that it is continuing to wait for more information in order to be able the impact of financial turbulence on the Australian economy and to assess the labour market. 
However, it did make too substantive changes to its post meeting Statement. In removing a reference to above average levels for survey measures of business conditions and in saying that “continued low inflation would [as opposed to “may” in the February Statement] provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate…” the RBA appears to have strengthened its easing bias somewhat.  
Our view remains that the RBA will cut interest rates again this year reflecting the risks around the global economy, weaker than expected commodity prices, still subdued growth in Australia at a time when the contribution from housing construction is slowing, a more dovish Fed threatening a higher Australian dollar and continued low inflation. However, this may not come till May. Given the RBA’s focus on inflation the March quarter CPI to be released in late April will be worth watching.
However, whether there is another rate cut or not from the RBA, it remains very hard to see rate hikes any time soon. So the period of low interest rates is set to continue.
<a href="/images/2016/03/image003.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2016/03/image003.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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RBA on hold as expected, but signals a slightly stronger easing bias: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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The RBA today held rates at 2 percent.
The decision from the RBA came as no surprise today, considering labour markets are holding up and housing market conditions have moderated but remain firm, Tim Lawless at CoreLogic RP Data said.
"The fact that the rate of capital gains has wound down across the housing market and investor activity is reducing from the highs of mid last year are likely to be welcomed developments from the Reserve Bank.
"Based on indices data released today by CoreLogic, capital city dwelling values rose by 1.4% over the most recent three month period and by 7.6% over the past twelve months; a substantial slowdown from the strong housing market conditions that were evident over the first half of 2015."
Lawless suggests if the RBA were to provide another cash rate cut later this year, they probably wouldn’t need to worry too much about over stimulating the housing market; mortgage rates are already higher than a year ago due to the higher capital requirements implemented by APRA and the pace of investment credit growth is tracking well below the 10% speed limit imposed in December 2014. 
"With inflation tracking around the bottom of the RBA target range of two to three per cent, the Reserve Bank can work to stimulate the economy by dropping the cash rate further if they see a requirement to do so."
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No change: RBA March 2016 cash rate decision

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 0.5 percent in February after a 0.9 percent lift in January. Home prices were up by 7.6 per cent over the year to February.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in February.
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2 points to 53.5 in February – a near six year high. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. Production, new orders and exports lifted in February
The economic data continues to surprise on a positive note. The manufacturing sector is now expanding at the fast pace in almost six years. And when it comes to home prices it is a case of modest strength – but more encouragingly price growth is more spread out and not just Sydney and Melbourne centric.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities. But the lift in home prices in Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane was the icing on the cake. In fact home prices in Hobart have now lifted by 8.5 per cent in the past three months. It seems investors and home buyers are shifting away from the traditional growth markets of Sydney and
Melbourne and looking for more attractively-priced property in other cities.
It is still early days but the perfect outcome would be if the majority of regional areas recorded a lift in dwelling values. The “Rest of State” price index lifted by 0.6 per cent in February, although annual growth is still subdued at 2.2 per cent. This highlights the issues facing policymakers in attempting to manage a very diverse housing market. What we would expect to see is the lift in capital city house prices continues to filter out across the regional towns over the next 12-24 months.
The consolidation in home prices is unlikely to see home building dry up. There is a record pipeline of dwelling approvals that suggest a lot of building work will take place over the next two years - supportive of a lift in activity levels over the medium term.
The rebalancing effect across the economy continues to take place. Manufacturing activity has now expanded for eight consecutive months – marking the longest streak in ten years. More importantly the sub-indices like, production, new orders and exports, are showing a credible lift. No doubt the weaker Australian dollar will continue to support the sector. In addition low resource prices – particularly for oil - are keeping down input costs and also providing a boost to the sector.
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.50.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.50.38%20AM.png" alt="" width="814" height="591">
The latest data should ensure that the Reserve Bank continues to remain on the interest rate sidelines. If a rate cut was to take place it would be as a result of a downturn in the global economy rather than domestic economic conditions.
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value index of capital city home prices rose by 0.5 percent in February after a 0.9 per cent lift in January. Home prices were up by 7.6 per cent over the year to February.
House prices rose by 0.6 percent in February while apartment prices fell by 0.1 percent. House prices were up 7.8 percent on a year ago and apartments were up by 6.2 percent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $572,000 and the average unit price was $480,000.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in February: Hobart (up 2.9 percent), Adelaide (up 1.9 percent, Brisbane (up 0.8 percent), Sydney (up 0.5 percent), Darwin (up 0.4 percent) and Melbourne (up 0.3 percent). Prices fell most in Perth (down 1.1 percent), followed by Canberra (down 0.2 percent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Melbourne (up 11.1 percent), followed by Sydney (up 9.5 percent), Hobart (up 6.2 percent), Brisbane (up 5.5 percent), Canberra (up 4.5 percent) and Adelaide (up 2.8 percent). Prices fell in Perth (down 3.1 percent), and Darwin (down 2.9 percent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to February rose by 11.5 per cent with houses up 11.6 percent on a year earlier and units up 10.9 per cent.
 Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2 points to 53.5 in February – its highest level since July 2010.
AIG notes “February was the eighth consecutive month in which the Australian PMI has been above 50 points (net expansion). This is the longest continuous run of expansion since 2006.”
Across the sub-indices; production (60.1 points), new orders (52.4 points), stocks (52.5 points), deliveries (53.5 points) exports (53.7 points) and sales (53.0 points) were positive in February. Employment (47.4 points), remained in contraction.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic-RP Data Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
The Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers compile the  Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Sydney and Melbourne drove the gains in home prices in 2015. But the two largest cities are likely to come back to the pack over 2016. Overall, we expect returns on home prices across Australia to lift by around 7 per cent in 2016. CommSec expects no change to rates over 2016.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Regional towns to get boost, as Hobart leads higher home prices: Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
ABS figures show that new home building approvals faltered during the first month of 2016.
January 2016 was a rather weak month for new home building approvals, with both detached house approvals and those for multi-units falling back compared with December. 
During January 2016, new home building approvals declined by 7.5 percent. This comprised a 6.1 percent drop in detached house approvals and a reduction of some 9.1 percent in multi-unit approvals. Over the past year, approvals totalled some 231,752 which is 10.6 percent higher than the previous 12 month period and still very strong by historical standards. 
Towards the end of 2015, the residential building industry was hit by a number of unfavourable developments. The major banks increased their mortgage interest rates, credit conditions were tightened for domestic investors and the $5,000 foreign investor fee came into force. This has made it more difficult to deliver new housing supply and today’s figures seem to bear this out.
The HIA’s Housing Australia’s Future report warned last week of the major challenges in meeting Australia’s housing needs over the coming decades. It is therefore vital that policy settings and credit conditions become more focused on the consistent delivery of the required volume of new housing supply over the long term. We’re just not seeing this at the moment. 
During January 2016, total seasonally adjusted new home building approvals saw the largest increase in South Australia (+14.2 percent), followed by Western Australia (+7.2 percent) and Victoria (+2.9 percent). The volume of approvals fell in New South Wales (-22.9 percent), Queensland (-13.4 percent) and Tasmania (-11.1 percent). In trend terms, approvals saw a 9.4 percent decline in the Northern Territory and contracted by 11.4 percent in the Australian Capital Territory.
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2012.34.55%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2012.34.55%20PM.png" alt="" width="799" height="388">
Shane Garrett is senior economist for HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/BusinessInfo/economicInfo/EcoGroup.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Building approvals stumble into 2016: HIA's Shane Garrett

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GUEST OBSERVER
A weaker jobs report and a pullback in surveyed business conditions suggests that local growth remains below trend.
At the same time, inflation is low, giving the RBA scope to cut further, if needed, despite its considerable reluctance to do so.
We expect the RBA to be on hold for now, but see another cut in Q2, unless the AUD sees a tangible fall before then.
The past month has delivered a modest pullback in the timely indicators of economic activity, from the much stronger numbers in late 2015. Some part of this may reflect a response to the recent financial turmoil, but it is also likely to reflect some correction for over-statement of the strength in the statistics late last year.
After reaching post-global financial crisis highs in Q3 and Q4 2015, surveyed business conditions have pulled back in December and January. Likewise, employment fell modestly in the past couple of months, following very strong growth in October and November (part of this reflects measurement issues in the official labour force survey).
Job advertisements and job vacancies have continued a modest trend higher, and consumer and business sentiment are around average. Although housing market auction clearance rates have picked up strongly in February, the daily house price numbers continue to show flat housing prices since August.
The modest pullback in the activity indicators leaves the economy growing at a solid, but still below-trend pace. We expect next week’s Q4 2015 GDP print to show growth of 2.5% y-o-y. This pace of growth is insufficient to generate a pick-up in inflation, and we continue to expect the underlying measures of inflation to drop below the bottom edge of the RBA’s target band in coming quarters. Wages numbers, published this week, show wages growth slowing to new lows, and this is expected to continue to weigh on domestic inflation.
A further fall in the AUD could help to lift inflation, but the AUD has been quite sticky at around US70-72 cents. With policy rates set to fall further in Europe and Japan in coming quarters and the market doubting whether the Federal Reserve will hike this year, the global backdrop is putting upward pressure on the AUD. 
Speculative positions have recently shifted to ‘long’ the AUD/USD for the first time in nine months.
Despite the RBA’s considerable reluctance to cut the cash rate further, we expect they may have to cut around mid-year to keep inflation on target. We expect them to remain on hold next week but expect a cut in Q2.
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.04.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.04.03%20AM.png" alt="" width="730" height="334">
Local activity indicators have pulled back a little
In recent quarters, the RBA has pointed to two key pieces of evidence that growth is lifting: surveyed business conditions and improvements in the labour market. 
Both of these sets of indicators have started to pull back in the past couple of months.
Surveyed business conditions, which had been around their post-global financial crisis highs, fell in December and January (Chart 1). The official labour force survey has also shown that employment fell modestly in December and January, following very strong growth in October and November. In this case, we see part of the pullback as reflecting measurement issues in the official jobs numbers. Our own ‘labour market index’ suggests jobs growth of around 1.5% y-o-y, rather than the official numbers which show growth of 2.5% (See Downunder Digest: Is Australia’s jobs growth really that strong?, 11 February 2016). These indicators suggest that growth remains below trend.
Wages sluggish and investment outlook weak
The key question for the RBA is whether this below-trend growth will be sufficient to keep inflation on target? We remain doubtful. Underlying inflation is currently at the bottom edge of the 2-3% target band we expect it to fall in coming quarters. Despite steady improvement in the labour market, this week’s numbers showed that wages growth has continued to slow to a new record low on the 2.2% in Q4 2015 (Chart 3). State details also reveal that even the regions with the strongest labour markets, New South Wales and Victoria, are seeing continued sluggish wages growth (Downunder Digest: Rebalancing act drives state divergence, 25 February 2016).
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.07.12%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.07.12%20AM.png" alt="" width="765" height="334">
 
This week’s capital expenditure survey, which contained the first estimates for financial year 2016/17, also showed that the outlook for business investment remains weak.
Unsurprisingly, mining investment is expected to fall further in 2016/17. At the same time, the capex survey showed that non-mining investment is expected to fall further in 2016/17. This partly reflects measurement issues, with the capex survey excluding a range of services industries, but also provides evidence that the investment outlook remains a challenge.
Housing market still appears to be cooling
Timely indicators of the housing market have been presenting mixed signals over recent weeks.
Auction clearance rates, which typically have a strong positive correlation with housing price growth, have jumped to quite high levels in February (Chart 5). However, this time of year is particularly difficult to assess, given the low turnover around Christmas means that sales are delayed until February. The daily housing price numbers show that housing prices have levelled out since August 2015, both nationally and in Sydney and Melbourne (Chart 6). We continue to expect the housing market to have cooled from its strong pace of activity in 2015 (see Downunder Digest: Australia’s housing market cools, 11 December 2015).
A rising AUD would be unhelpful
Besides low interest rates, the other mechanism that has been a key support for growth andinflation has been the lower AUD. This has worked through directly lifting imported goods prices  but, even more importantly, it has improved Australia’s competitiveness. The combination of  lower interest rates and the lower AUD have been the main drivers of the rebalancing of growth away from mining and towards the housing and services sectors. Tourism and education exports have been supported by the lower AUD.
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.09.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.09.53%20AM.png" alt="" width="806" height="374">
 
Given the housing boom that has already occurred and the RBA’s increased concerns about financial stability in 2015, the central bank has shown considerable reluctance to cut its cash rate further to boost growth. The RBA would much prefer growth to be supported by a further fall in the AUD than by lowering its cash rate again. However, although the AUD is a long way below its peak levels of 2011, it has now been broadly steady for the past seven months, so is no longer continuing to loosen financial conditions. The AUD is also sitting at a level that is higher than is implied by its previous relationship with commodity prices (Chart 7). The current level of commodity prices implies that an AUD around US60-65 cents may be closer to ideal.
With policy rates set to fall further in Europe and Japan in coming quarters and the market doubting whether the Federal Reserve will hike this year, the global backdrop is putting upward pressure on the AUD. Speculative positions have recently shifted to ‘long’ the AUD/USD for the first time in nine months (Chart 8). For more on market positioning around the AUD, see Clyde Wardle and Daragh Maher, AUD bulls take over from the bears, 19 February 2016.
Recent RBA commentary on the AUD
Despite the AUD not having fallen with commodity prices in recent months, the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, has been reluctant to directly ‘jawbone’ the currency lower. At his recent semiannual testimony to a parliamentary committee (12 February 2016) the Governor noted that ‘there was a period when we felt that the exchange rate was not quite doing the job we might have expected, and we said so. It then adjusted, and our language has of late been, “it’s adjusting”. I would still say that. I would also note that commodity prices are continuing to fall as we speak’.
Last week, the market responded to some comments by an RBA board member, John Edwards, to The Australian (19 February 2016). Mr Edwards said ‘I still think it [the AUD] is a bit too high’ and that he’d be more comfortable with the ‘AUD trading around US65 cents’. However, as John Edwards also said to the Australian Financial Review (23 February 2016), ‘I can’t speak for the board at all, but I myself think I’m more comfortable with a lower dollar’. We do not view Mr Edwards’ comments as the commencement of an official RBA ‘jawboning’ campaign. Keep in mind that board members do not vote at the RBA, with the decision on the cash rate reached through consensus based on a recommendation by the staff.
Nonetheless, we think the RBA will be watching the currency carefully at the moment. Without a further fall in the currency (perhaps to around US65 cents) we expect the RBA may need to cut its cash rate further. Another bout of ‘jawboning’ the currency lower by the Governor may be just around the corner.
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.12.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.12.16%20AM.png" alt="" width="599" height="211">
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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Expect rates to be on hold, for now: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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After the record breaking sale of Darling House last week, the Government Property NSW have listed a further 12 properties in Millers Point.
Being sold on behalf of the Department of Family and Community Services, the houses include a four bedroom Victorian style terrace on Kent Street and a former boarding house on Fort Street.
The owners of the heritage listed properties have a responsibility to undertake some sort of maintenance or restoration of their newly acquired properties in accordance with the Conversation Management Plans (CMP's).
Each owner will sign a contract which will highlight their development responsibilities. 
The proceeds from the Millers Point sales are being reinvested into 1,500 new social housing dwellings across New South Wales with 100 already completed.
The biggest sale since the start of the sell off came last Thursday when Darling House secured $7.7 million, $1.7 million over its auction guide.
The sale took the total of sales to over $120 million.
The below properties are the new batch and will be marketed by McGrath Estate Agents and will be auctioned March 30. 
44 Kent Street – a four-bedroom two storey terrace in mid-Victorian style with cantilevered balcony and decorative iron balustrade (above).
53 Kent Street – a three-bedroom three storey residence, one of a pair of Georgian style terraces with added Victorian-era cantilevered balcony.
79 Kent Street – formerly three one-bedroom apartments and two studios, forming the southernmost portion of Winsbury Terrace.
83 Kent Street – a three-bedroom terrace with an Italianate style mid-Victorian front wing.
15, 21, 25 &amp; 29 Windmill Street – three-bedroom dwellings built in 1907–1908 in the Arts and Crafts style. These properties have state significance as examples of early twentieth century public housing developed by the NSW Government Architect’s Branch.
52 &amp; 54 Argyle Place – part of a row known as Undercliff Terrace, these properties were built in 1843 for whaling captain George Grimes and are one of the earliest terrace groups surviving in Sydney.
17 Lower Fort Street – a three to four bedroom terrace, formerly a boarding house, and part of the Milton Terrace.
19 Lower Fort Street - formerly four studio apartments, also part of the Milton Terrace, built in the Victorian Classical style.
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A dozen more homes set for Millers Point auction

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Retired swimming golden girl Stephanie Rice has sold her Paddington, Brisbane home.
Place Paddington agents Tim Douglas and Scott MacDonald secured the sale.
Stephanie Rice posted her gratitude on Instagram about the sale of her four-bedroom, three-bathroom property for an undisclosed price.
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-paddington-121662222" target="_blank">Rice purchased the home on Kennedy Terrace </a>in 2010 for $1.265 million.
She used the house for investment purposes renting it out at most recent at $1050 a week.
It’s believed the recent sale was motivated by her move overseas.
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Stephanie Rice sells her Paddington, Brisbane investment property

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Land clearing has returned to Queensland in a big way. After we expressed concern that policy changes since 2012 would lead to a resurgence in clearing of native vegetation, this outcome was confirmed by government figures released late last year.
It is now clear that land clearing is accelerating in Queensland. The new data confirm that 296,000 hectares of bushland was cleared in 2013-14 – three times as much as in 2008-09 – mainly for conversion to pastures. These losses do not include the well-publicised clearing permitted by the government of nearly 900 square kilometres at two properties, Olive Vale and Strathmore, which commenced in 2015.
<div class="enlarge_hint">Alarmingly, the data show that clearing in catchments that drain onto the Great Barrier Reef increased dramatically, and constituted 35% of total clearing across Queensland in 2013-14. The loss of native vegetation cover in such regions is one of the major drivers of the deteriorating water quality in the reef’s lagoon, which threatens seagrass, coral reefs, and other marine ecosystems.</div>
The increases in land clearing are across the board. They include losses of over 100,000 hectares of old-growth habitats, as well as the destruction of “high-value regrowth” – the advanced regeneration of endangered ecosystems.
These ecosystems have already been reduced to less than 10% of their original extent, and their recovery relies on allowing this regrowth to mature.
Alarmingly, our analysis of where the recent clearing has occurred reveals that even “of concern” and “endangered” remnant ecosystems are being lost at much higher rates now than before.
While this level of vegetation loss and damage continues apace, Australia’s environmental programs will fall well short of achieving their aims.
<h2>Neutralising our environmental programs</h2>
Land clearing affects all Australians, not just Queenslanders. Australia spends hundreds of millions of dollars each year trying to redress past environmental damage from land clearing. Tens of thousands of volunteers dedicate their time, money and land to the effort.
But despite undeniable local benefits of such programs, their contribution to national environmental goals is undone, sometimes many times over, by the damage being done in Queensland.
Take the federal government’s 20 million trees program. At a cost of A$50 million, it aims to replace 20 million trees by 2020 to redress some of the damage from past land clearing.
Yet just one year of increased land clearing in Queensland has already removed many more trees than will be painstakingly planted during the entire program.
The Australian government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) is paying billions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions from industry. But the carbon released from Queensland’s land clearing in 2012-2014 alone is estimated at 63 million tonnes, far more than was purchased under the first round of the ERF (at a cost to taxpayers of A$660 million).
Species cannot recover if their habitat is being destroyed faster than it is being restored. But under Caring for our Country and Biodiversity Fund grants, the extent of tree planting to restore habitat across Australia reported since 2013 is just over 42,000 hectares - an order of magnitude less than what was cleared in Queensland alone in just two years.
And it will be many decades before these new plantings will provide anything like the environmental benefits of mature native vegetation.
Land clearing between 2012 and 2014 in Queensland is estimated to have wiped out more than 40,000 hectares of koala habitat, as well as habitat for over 200 other threatened species. Clearing, along with drought (which is also made worse by clearing), is the major cause of an 50% decline in koalas of south-west and central Queensland since 1996.
The loss of remnant habitat, especially from forests along waterways, means more habitat fragmentation. This is a further threat to many species of wildlife, and it hampers our ability to adapt to a rapidly changing climate.
The federal government has committed hundreds of millions of dollars to improve reef water quality. Yet ongoing land clearing in reef-draining catchments will reverse many of the gains these programs aim to achieve. Last year, Queensland’s Auditor-General reported that stronger legislation would be essential to reducing harmful catchment runoff to the Great Barrier Reef.
<h2>Prevention is better than cure</h2>
We live in an era of tightening carbon budgets, declining land-production capacity and rapidly deteriorating biodiversity, including in iconic places such as Great Barrier Reef. The evidence is clear that we cannot continue to degrade our environment without severe consequences.
It is far more efficient to prevent environmental damage than to try to reverse it later.
For example, the cost of stabilising river-banks following deforestation can range from A$16,000 to A$5 million per kilometre. Natural ecosystems contribute enormously to the economy in ways that are often unrecognised.
We are running up a large environmental debt that will eventually have to be paid by all Australians, one way or another.
And some damage, like the loss of a species, is irreversible.
Previous native vegetation laws had successfully reduced land clearing, but were reversed in 2013 by the former Newman government.
The current Palaszczuk government in Queensland has repeated its election promise to re-strengthen native vegetation protections. The amendment bill is due to be introduced to parliament within weeks.
But the minority government relies on the votes of cross-benchers to pass its legislation–so for now, the future of some of Australia’s most precious environmental assets remains uncertain.
Martine Maron is associate professor of Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Bill Laurance is distinguished research professor and Australian Laureate, James Cook University, Bob Pressey is professor and Program Leader, Conservation Planning, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Carla P. Catterall is professor in ecology and environment, Griffith University, Clive McAlpine is senior research Fellow in Ecology, The University of Queensland, Hugh Possingham is director ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Queensland, James Watson is associate professor, The University of Queensland, Jonathan Rhodes is associate Professor, The University of Queensland, Kerrie Wilson is associate professor and ARC Future Fellow, The University of Queensland, Marc Hockings is professor of Environmental Management, The University of Queensland. All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Queensland land clearing is undermining Australia’s environmental progress

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GUEST OBSERVER
When considering changes to negative gearing, commentary about the potential to wind back negative gearing benefits on a retrospective basis is concerning.
People make medium to long term economic decisions based on the law at the time, and while some may argue the environment has changed to warrant the wind back of negative gearing benefits, doing so retrospectively and applying it to people who have already bought properties on which negative gearing benefits are claimed would be tantamount to penalising them for planning ahead and being financial responsible.
These people should not be penalised for choosing an option that would make themselves financially self-sufficient, rather than having to rely on the Government for assistance when they retire.
Shifting the goal posts by way of retrospective application is blatantly inequitable.
It could undermine the stability of the economic environment, which may have a far reaching impact on market confidence and therefore the stability of the economy.
It is akin to telling people who have been saving for years through their superannuation funds the environment has now changed and the Government will seize all superannuation benefits to balance the budget.
You simply don't tinker with people's medium to long term plans because these plans need political and economic certainty to achieve their intended outcome, which underwrites the economic future of this country.
Even if negative gearing changes are to be entertained, allowing these changes to apply retrospectively must not be an option.
Eddie Chung is tax partner, BDO and can be contacted <a href="https://www.bdo.com.au/en-au/our-people/eddie-chung" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Retrospective changes to negative gearing must not be an option: BDO's Eddie Chung

An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Jonathan Chancellor

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