For the first time, prospective off the plan apartment buyers in Sydney's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/homebush-nsw-2140">Homebush</a> can purchase with the confidence of a 10-year defect protection for their new apartment building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bridge-road-residences-homebush-3-5-bridge-road-homebush-nsw-2140">Bridge Road Residences</a>, the latest development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ventus-group">Ventus Group</a>, is the first new apartment complex in the area to offer the highly sought-after 10-year Latent Defects Insurance, provided by Resilience Insurance.

This policy, which applies to all 80 apartments in the new building on Bridge Road, covers homeowners against&nbsp;structural or design defects defects that may arise within the first 10 years after the building's completion. It can only be taken out by the developer or builder of the new development, and not by individual apartment owners.

Half of the apartments in the building have already been quickly snapped up. Buyers have been attracted by the insurance policy, along with the guarantee of a quality build, thanks to the insurance's Technical Inspection Service. This service involves third-party experts visiting the construction site at least once a month to ensure the building is being properly constructed, making defects highly unlikely.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6989 project_image_fid=2132]

Located on Bridge Road, the development offers a mix of apartment configurations, from studios to three-bedroom apartments.

Apartments have been designed&nbsp;by MX Architects with liveability in mind, featuring open-plan layouts, engineered timber floors, wool-blend carpet in bedrooms, and either ducted or split-system air conditioning depending on configuration.&nbsp;

Many apartments also include north-facing aspects or oversized balconies, enhancing natural light and outdoor usability.

The development includes landscaped communal gardens with a central lawn, shaded seating, and barbecue areas. A rooftop terrace offers views across the city and Sydney Olympic Park. These amenities are designed to provide outdoor spaces for both relaxation and socialising, without increasing maintenance burden.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6989 project_image_fid=2135]

Bridge Road Residences is less than 10 minutes’ walk from Homebush Station and close to major road links including the M4 and M8.&nbsp;

Residents will have immediate access to Rochester Street’s cafes, grocers, and restaurants, as well as retail and dining hubs at North Strathfield’s Bakehouse Quarter, Strathfield Plaza, and DFO Homebush.&nbsp;

The area is also well-served by schools and tertiary institutions, including Homebush Public School and the University of Sydney.

Construction is being led by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/one-way-dc">One Way Development &amp; Construction</a>. They are expecting to complete the build in Q3 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6989]

Joel Robinson

Bridge Road Residences brings 10-year defects guarantee to Homebush

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/romano-property-group">Romano Property Group</a> has appointed AG Construct to deliver their boutique new Fitzroy apartment development, Napier 235.

Half of the apartment in the architecturally-striking block of 14 have already been snapped up.

Located just 150 metres from Brunswick Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/napier-235-235-napier-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">Napier 235</a> will bring a mix of two and three-bedroom residences to the tightly held inner-city neighbourhood, including a full-floor penthouse and one townhouse.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144904 project_image_fid=3217]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a> with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/florian-wild">Florian Wild</a>, Napier 235 presents a sculptural, low-rise form that aligns with Fitzroy’s heritage character while introducing contemporary detailing.&nbsp;

Residences are all north-facing and feature large private terraces, with living areas that connect to the outdoors via floor-to-ceiling sliding glass.

Inside, kitchens are anchored by 3.5-metre stone island benches and include walk-in pantries, Miele and Gaggenau appliances, and built-in bars with wine fridges in most apartments.&nbsp;

Customisable floor plans allow buyers to tailor internal layouts to suit their needs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144904 project_image_fid=3220]

Sustainability has been prioritised from the outset. Napier 235 ranks in the top five per cent of Victorian developments under current planning policy benchmarks, reflecting efficient energy use and environmentally responsible design.

Napier 235 places residents within walking distance of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/fitzroy-vic-3065">Fitzroy</a>’s food and retail precincts, including Marion, Morning Market, and Bentwood Café. Fitzroy Gardens, Carlton Gardens, and tram connections to the CBD are also nearby. Despite its proximity to major amenity, the development sits within a quieter residential pocket.

Pricing for two-bedroom apartments at Napier 235 starts at $1,225,000.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144904]

Construction to commence at Napier 235 in Fitzroy as Romano appoints builder

A rare new development in Surry Hills is aiming to replace a cluster of underutilised commercial buildings with a contemporary eight mixed-use building just 300 metres from Central Station.&nbsp;

The $27.5 million project is being led by ISL Property Investments Management and will include 35 apartments, some earmarked for affordable housing, alongside street-level retail and basement parking.

The development spans multiple lots between <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/98-106-kippax-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">Kippax, Sophia, and Waterloo Streets</a> and will involve substantial demolition of the existing structures on the 780 sqm site.

According to the Urban Design Report prepared by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dko-architecture">DKO</a>, the design has been shaped to reflect the area’s gritty industrial past while contributing to its evolving identity as a high-density urban hub.

“The proposed development is designed to integrate sensitively and intelligently with its immediate surroundings and evolving urban context,” DKO stated. “It mediates between the existing built environment and the area’s future trajectory, ensuring a thoughtful transition”.

<img alt="First look: I.S.L. Property Investments plans eight-storey mixed-use apartments in Surry Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="db880273-57af-4167-9601-f05fd7b39124" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Surry%20Hills%20isl.png?VersionId=f3Ix9jP4eJ44H69zUcgot_zxBr4rW6gJ" />

The project includes 35 one, two, three-bedroom apartments across the upper levels, with 15 per cent of the total floor area allocated to affordable housing.&nbsp;The dwelling mix is designed to cater to a range of household types, with layouts strategically oriented to maximise solar access and cross ventilation, DKO notes.

Architecturally, the building is anchored by a podium that reinforces the streetscape while referencing the area’s industrial brick fabric. Above this, a lighter tower form is chamfered to reduce visual bulk and improve solar access to the public domain.&nbsp;

“The tower mass is elevated above the podium, visibly distinct yet firmly anchored at the bookend corner of Kippax and Waterloo Streets,” DKO wrote.

The development is also aiming high on sustainability. Features include rooftop photovoltaics, water-efficient landscaping with local species, and a commitment to all-electric infrastructure.&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: I.S.L. Property Investments plans eight-storey mixed-use apartments in Surry Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8e1b99eb-6945-48b6-8222-647efe549803" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Site_0.png?VersionId=fUWGEn1sGpIMuzQ6KJ5zGQxQTjUoe9gz" />

The project is lodged under the Housing SEPP and seeks approval from the City of Sydney. There have been very few new apartment developments in Surry Hills in recent years. Some of the most notable has been redevelopments of former commercial buildings, as opposed to demolishing buildings.

That's the plan for national developer Time &amp; Place, which has recently submitted their State Significant Development Application for Marlborough House, the redevelopment of the original&nbsp;David Jones department store warehouse and factory building&nbsp;on Marlborough Street. The development will have around 150 warehouse-style apartments.

First look: Rare new apartment project pitched for Sydney's Surry Hills

Award-winning Canberra developer Art Group is approaching the final stages of construction on its newest residential development, Calypso, located on the city-fringe boulevard of Northbourne Avenue in Dickson.

Now 90 per cent complete and tracking toward a 2025 move-in date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/calypso-dickson-330-northbourne-avenue-dickson-act-2602">Calypso</a> will deliver 207 one-, two-, three-bedroom apartments designed for the owner-occupier.

The project has been described as a “vibrant oasis” within the growing Northbourne precinct, with design and amenity focused on enhancing both liveability and connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134842 project_image_fid=1205]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/art-group">Art Group</a> has positioned Calypso to meet the growing preference for flexible, lifestyle-oriented urban living. All apartments feature floor-to-ceiling windows, generous internal layouts, and purpose-designed spaces such as study nooks or dedicated home offices in larger configurations.

One-bedroom layouts are designed with oversized bedrooms and dual-access bathrooms for added convenience, while two-bedroom apartments include additional study rooms and expansive kitchens.&nbsp;

The three-bedroom residences further elevate functionality with walk-in pantries, freestanding laundries, and panoramic mountain views from corner apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134842 project_image_fid=1203]

Beyond private residences, Calypso incorporates a range of shared amenities tailored to modern hybrid work and wellness lifestyles. These include dedicated coworking spaces, a gym with cardio and strength equipment, rooftop gardens, communal EV charging, and landscaped outdoor entertaining areas.

Technology integration is a key feature, with fibre-to-the-unit internet offering speeds up to 1,000 Mbps, instant-access Wi-Fi in shared zones, and an embedded network providing streamlined utilities.&nbsp;

The development also includes energy-efficient inclusions and central staircases designed to promote active living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134842 project_image_fid=912]

Situated on Northbourne Avenue, Calypso benefits from immediate access to light rail, placing residents within easy reach of the Canberra CBD.&nbsp;

The development is also walking distance to the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/dickson-act-2602">Dickson</a> retail precinct and close to several key education institutions, including the Australian National University, University of Canberra, and Dickson College, as well as&nbsp;North Ainslie Primary School, Lyneham High, and Blue Gum Early Learning Centre.

With demand for inner-north apartments continuing to outpace supply, Calypso’s nearing completion places it among a select few large-scale projects delivering new stock to the area within the next 12 months.

With an exclusive final developer release, and $0 stamp duty available in the ACT, there has never been a better time to look at this unique development.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134842]

Art Group’s Calypso in Dickson approaches completion

Headland Parade is one of the most premium and tightly held streets in Barrack Point in the Shellharbour region south of Sydney.

Local developer&nbsp;Allowrie snapped up an opportunity to develop four custom-designed townhomes on the exclusive strip, which they recently completed the luxury homes to the design by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ingenuity-home-designs">Ingenuity Home Designs</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150639 project_image_fid=3556]

From the street, the development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/12-headland-parade-barrack-point-12-headland-parade-barrack-point-nsw-2528">12 Headland Parade</a>&nbsp;features gabled rooflines, muted coastal palette and landscaped frontages that reflect the enduring character of the area.

Inside, the attention to detail continues across open-plan layouts that flow into private alfresco spaces, with select residences enjoying their own inground concrete swimming pool.

The interiors are defined by their use of thoughtful materials and functional sophistication. 40mm 0% silica stone quartz benchtops, brushed brass tapware, and curved v-groove bathroom cabinetry are paired with Polytec kitchen joinery and Lappato-finished terrazzo tiles to create spaces that feel both premium and relaxed.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150639 project_image_fid=3550]

Comfort underfoot is achieved through hybrid European oak flooring and extra heavy-duty loop pile carpets in the bedrooms, while ducted reverse-cycle air-conditioning ensures seasonal adaptability.

Each residence includes a garage with epoxy flake flooring, landscaped outdoor areas, and integrated energy-efficient inclusions like 5kW solar photovoltaic systems. These elements reinforce the project’s focus on longevity and liveability, making the homes equally suited to growing families and downsizers alike.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150639 project_image_fid=3558]

Located 160 metres from Little Lake and 400 metres from Warilla Beach, the address sits within walking distance of the Shellharbour Village café strip, Shellharbour North Beach, and the coastal cycleway.&nbsp;

The Shell Cove Marina precinct is a five-minute drive, and Stockland Shellharbour provides broader retail and medical services nearby. Recreational spaces include Dawes Park, Killalea State Park, and Bass Point.

The four townhomes are move-in ready, and start from $1.25 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150639]

Staff Reporter

12 Headland Parade delivers rare new-build coastal homes to Barrack Point

Westpac

Westpac have revised upwards its outlook for Australian dwelling prices.

It had predicted, earlier this year, a 20% increase over 2021 and 2022.&nbsp;

But a stronger than expected surge over the first half of 2021 is now expected to see prices up 18% this year with a further 5% coming next year.

While the duo, Bill Evans, Westpac&#39;s chief economist and Matthew Hassan, its senior economist, see lockdowns as likely to cause some loss of momentum in the third quarter, particularly in the Sydney market, they see a swift rebound with price growth lifting again into year end.

Price growth is expected to slow to 5% in 2022 with most of the increase occurring in the first half.&nbsp;

Prices are then expected to decline 5% in 2023 as stretched affordability in most markets combines with the RBA&rsquo;s first rate hike cycle since 2009.

<a href="/developments/sydney-nsw?source_news_article_id=107113&amp;ref=news_body_link"><img alt="" height="800" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/template_photoshop_sydneycbd_3.png" width="1200" /></a>

&quot;The upswing that emerged at the start of this year has continued to run ahead of expectations with markets carrying strong momentum into the second half,&quot; they noted.

Prices nationally rose 12.2% over the first six months, an extraordinary 25.6% pace in annualised terms.

The update noted deteriorating affordability is already weighing heavily on buyer sentiment with the &lsquo;time to buy a dwelling&rsquo; index in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey is down 25% from its peak last November.&nbsp;

&quot;There are also tentative signs that finance to owner occupiers has peaked.&quot;

They see macro&ndash;prudential tightening as highly likely.

<a href="/developments/melbourne-vic?source_news_article_id=107113&amp;ref=news_body_link"><img alt="" height="800" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/template_photoshop_melbournecbd_10.jpg" width="1200" /></a>

&quot;The timing is expected to be delayed until around March&ndash;June 2022.&nbsp;

&quot;Measures are expected to be successful and to weigh more heavily on markets where affordability is stretched.&nbsp;

&quot;Price growth is expected to stall in Sydney and Melbourne through the second half of 2022 but maintain some positive momentum in most other markets where affordability is still attractive.&quot;

The combination of rising rates; stretched affordability; and macro&ndash;prudential policies is likely to see prices easing off their highs by an average of around 5% in 2023 with all markets expected to see modest declines, Westpac forecast.

Bill Evans, Westpac's chief economist and Matthew Hassan, its senior economist now see a total gain over the two years of 23% with 18% coming in 2021

jchancellor

Westpac forecast 18% dwelling price rise in 2021 and 5% next year

National multi-unit approvals increased by 36 per cent in the three months to May 2021 to be 25.7 per cent higher than last year.&nbsp;

It was the strongest quarterly result for apartment approvals since 2018, stated HIA economist, Angela Lillicrap.

They were driven by a rise in apartment approvals in Queensland and Western Australia.

<img alt="" height="855" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/approvals_broad.jpg" width="1200" />

Matthew Hassan, the Westpac economist noted high rise approvals, where up 186 percent year on year in Queensland and 105 percent in WA.&nbsp;

In NSW highrise approvals were up 59 percent year on year based on the quarterly data, while it was 42 percent in Victoria.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=150460]

Hassan noted that high rise approvals were greater than low rise apartment approvals.

NSW lead the low to mid rise apartment growth, up 69 percent, followed by Victoria up 8 percent and Queensland by 4 percent.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163979]

Meanwhile detached building approvals fell back in May from the record level set in April but remain elevated according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics release.

Approvals for private sector houses fell across all mainland states: Western Australia (-18%), South Australia (-16.9%), Queensland (-13.8%), Victoria (-5.8%) and New South Wales (-4.6%), in seasonally adjusted terms. 
&nbsp; 
Detached approvals will remain elevated for several more months as approval authorities work through the remaining HomeBuilder projects, stated HIA economist, Angela Lillicrap.

Ryan Felsman, the senior economist at CommSec, noted council approvals to build new homes fell by 7.1 per cent in May after falling by 5.7 per cent in April.&nbsp;

&quot;But approvals are still up 52.7 per cent on the year &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years,&quot; Felsman advised.

In May, total house approvals fell by 10.3 per cent (up 53.6 per cent on the year) with apartments up 0.7 per cent (up 51.0 per cent on the year).&nbsp;

Over the past year, 144,827 new houses were approved &ndash; the most for a 12-month period in over 37 years.

AMP Capital cheif economist Shane Oliver noted the decline in building approvals from their peak likely reflects the end of the HomeBuilder subsidy at the end of March, which brought approvals forward.&nbsp;

&quot;However, approvals remain very high, the AIG&rsquo;s June Construction PMI survey continues to point to strong new orders for new houses and the lagged impact of the surge in approvals up until recently points to a significant further rise in dwelling construction activity over the remainder of this year.

&quot;This is good news for continuing economic and jobs recovery.&nbsp;

&quot;Continuing strength in home building against the back drop of the collapse in population growth also holds out the prospect that the property market will move into a situation of underlying oversupply in the next year or so which should ultimately slow the gains in home prices and help improve affordability,&quot; Oliver said.

Multi-unit approvals increased by 36 per cent in the three months to May 2021, the strongest quarterly result since 2018

Apartment approvals see strongest quarterly result since 2018

Westpac now expect more of their recent 20 percent property price rise forecast to occur in 2021.

Westpac economists Bill Evans and Matthew Hassan kept their forecast for a 20 per cent gain in dwelling price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 but shifted it from thinking it would be evenly spread at 10 per cent gains expected in both years.

&ldquo;We now expect more of this rise to come in 2021, retaining the 20 per cent call overall but with a 15 per cent gain in 2021 slowing to 5 per cent in 2022,&rdquo; they said.

The initial forecast came in mid-February.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728 project_image_fid=73042]

The duo noted Australia&rsquo;s housing market is &quot;evolving quickly.&quot;

&quot;The strong upswing that emerged late last year has seen price growth run well ahead of expectations over the first few months of the year.

&quot;At the current cracking pace, our forecast 10% lift in prices for 2021 set down in February will be achieved by around mid-June.

&quot;Some moderation is likely, particularly as affordability becomes more stretched for owner occupiers.

&quot;However, a sudden loss of momentum near term looks unlikely, particularly with markets tight, price expectations bullish, investor activity showing signs of picking up and highly stimulatory financial conditions still firmly in place.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6798]

&quot;Accordingly, we have marked up our near-term forecast for dwelling prices with a 15% gain now expected nationally in 2021.

&quot;This represents a pull-forward of the cumulative 20% rise we had already been forecasting over 2021 and 2022.

They noted the 20% &lsquo;limit&rsquo; reflects two key views: &quot;that deteriorating affordability will become a more binding constraint for owner occupiers as prices rise; and that regulators will intervene in the market in 2022 as investor activity lifts and credit growth reaches uncomfortable levels.&quot;

Westpac now expect more of their 20 percent rise forecast to occur in 2021

Westpac forecasts even stronger 2021 housing price rise

<html><body>Westpac has announced that it will sell its Lender Mortgage Insurance (LMI) business to Arch Capital Group.

The deal will however see Arch becoming Westpac’s exclusive provider of LMI on new mortgage originations for a decade.

The transaction requires antitrust and regulatory approvals from APRA and from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

Arch which has provided reinsurance services to Westpac since 2011.

“Westpac is pleased to be entering into a long-term partnership with Arch as LMI is an important product that helps the group make home ownership more accessible for more Australians,” said Jason Yetton, chief executive, specialist businesses and group strategy at Westpac. 

“The sale continues the simplification of our business and builds on our progress in becoming a simpler, stronger bank focussed on consumer, business, and institutional banking.”

Arch notes the company’s position as the only globally diversified insurer of mortgage credit risk.

Arch has mortgage insurance and reinsurance operations in Bermuda, Europe and the United States.

There are two major LMI providers in Australia, QBE and Genworth.

LMI companies offer significantly different premiums for different types of loans (low doc or normal), types of borrowers (first home buyers or other borrowers), and LVRs (90%, 95% etc) and loan amounts.</body></html>

Westpac has announced that it will sell its Lender Mortgage Insurance (LMI) business to Arch Capital Group by the end of August

Westpac to sell its Lender Mortgage Insurance (LMI) business to Arch Capital Group.

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Westpac have followed ANZ and NAB and cut their two and three year fixed mortgage rates for new owner-occupiers.

They now have the lowest two year fixed rate on the market at 1.79 per cent, having chopped 20 basis points from their record-low 1.99 per cent offering.

Westpac's three year rate has seen an 11 basis point cut, now at 1.88 per cent.

The rates are only for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest with an LVR ratio of 70 per cent or less.

The two year investor fixed rates have also been cut by 0.2 per cent.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22584]

RateCity.com.au database shows that 57 lenders now have home loan rates under two per cent, including three of the big four banks.

“Westpac has thrown down the gauntlet to its competitors today proving there’s still heat in the fixed rate market.” RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said.

“While we’re nearing the bottom of the rate cycle, provided the cash rates remains above zero, it’s likely there’ll be more cuts in the weeks to come as banks compete for the record levels of new lending coming through the door.

“Lenders are currently in a strong position to offer low fixed rates, which also have the benefit of locking a customer in for the fixed term.

“Westpac is now offering the lowest 2 year fixed rate, and was already offering the lowest 4-year fixed rate in the market – an unusual position for a big four bank.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]

Tindall says home loans at the nation's largest lender, Commonwealth Bank, are starting to look outdated, with just one fixed rate under 2 per cent.

“Westpac group is reserving its sharpest rates for people who own at least 30 per cent of their home.

“Property price rises aren’t just helpful for people planning to sell. If you’ve had your home loan for a few years you might find you have more equity than you think and qualify for one of these low-rate loans."
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RateCity.com.au database shows that 57 lenders now have home loan rates under two per cent, including three of the big four banks.

Westpac offer lowest two-year fixed rate mortgage after cutting home loans

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Expert Observer

The Q4 National Accounts confirmed a brisk rebound in activity.

GDP printed at 3.1%qtr, -1.1%yr.

This was above expectations, market median and Westpac 2.5%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7275]

As we had flagged, the risks were to the upside – with the expenditure partials having surprised to the high side. That is how it played out.

The key theme, the economy rebounded rapidly through Q3, +3.4%, and Q4, +3.1%, with considerable momentum into 2021.

Consumers and businesses are upbeat, state governments are spending up, the housing market is red hot and the vaccine roll-out is underway.

Success on the health front has permitted the rolling back of most, but not all, covid restrictions. Victoria emerging from a second lock-down boosted activity in Q4 and will do so again in Q1.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=92985]

The recovery broadened in Q4:

(1) home building, up 4.1%, following a +1.6% for Q3, the first gains since June 2018, in response to cheap credit and government incentives, and

(2) business investment advanced, up 2.6%, led by equipment spending, +8.1%, in response to the accelerated depreciation allowance. That follows a string of negatives.

Real estate activity (ownership transfer costs) surged a further 15.2%, after a 21.6% rebound in Q3, to be 15.3% higher over the year – with the established housing market booming.

Consumer’s ability and willingness to spend is the key dynamic – certainly the relaxing of covid restrictions provides consumers with more opportunities to spend.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]

The household saving ratio spiked to 22% in Q2, on the drop in spending associated with the lock-down and the wave of government income support. The savings rate moderated to 18.7% in Q3 and retraced to 12% in Q4 and will unwind further in 2021.

The critically important point, while there was a tapering of government support in Q4, which saw business profits moderate off a high level, consumers have a sizeable savings buffer to fund a further lift in spending – and that is what they are choosing to do.

The consumer picture was largely as expected with spending posting another strong gain, led by normalising conditions in Victoria, and despite a material drag on incomes from reduced fiscal supports.

Total consumption rose 4.3%qtr to be down just 2.7%yr. Victoria posted a 10.4% gain in the quarter, spending up 2.3%qtr across the other states combined.

The spending detail was a little stronger than expected around vehicles and retail but a touch softer than expected on services.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=24323]

Around incomes, wages rose 1.4%qtr with a strong increase in employment and hours worked more than offsetting initial drags from the wind-back in JobKeeper support. However real disposable income – including small business and non wage incomes and net of interest and tax – recorded a sizeable 3.3% fall. The rise in spending was thus funded out of a reduction in new savings, the savings rate falling from 18.7% in Q3 to 12% in Q4

Public demand continues to be a growth driver, up 1.0% in the quarter and a very brisk 6.5% over the year, in part driven by the response to covid.

Net exports were a small negative, -0.1ppt, as imports roared back, +4.9%, to meet the brisk rebound in domestic demand. Inventories, in total, subtracted -0.1ppt.

In other detail, the Expenditure measure of GDP printed at 3.0%, Income at 3.3% and Production at 3.1%.

Andrew Hanlan is a senior economist at Westpac.
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Consumers and businesses are upbeat, state governments are spending up, the housing market is red hot and the vaccine roll-out is underway.

December quarter sees GDP grow 3.1%: Westpac's Andrew Hanlan's insights

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Having previously forecasted four per cent gains in 2021 in September, Westpac economists have lifted their forecast for dwelling prices and are now expecting 10 per cent gains in both 2021 and 2022.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans and senior economist Matthew Hassan's expectation is the market will flatten in 2023 as rising fixed-term interest rates combine with prudential measures aimed at reining in the associated lift in leverage.

"These headwinds are not expected to emerge until 2022 with prudential measures likely to be timed for the second half of 2022," Evans and Hassan suggest.

The forecast has Perth leading the way in 2021 with 12 per cent gains, followed by Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide at 10 per cent. Hobart and Melbourne are predicted to see eight per cent gains, with the latter jumping to 10 per cent over 2022.  

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7864]

They say the September forecast of four per cent gains in 2021 was "considered bold", given Victoria was still in lock down.

<img alt="" height="824" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/dwelling_forecast_westpac_2021.jpg" width="1200">

"The forecast for 2021 incorporated ongoing COVID-related headwinds – particularly around the end of temporary loan repayment deferrals and the impact of closed international borders on migrant inflows," Evans and Hassan continued.

"These headwinds and uncertainties around the pace of reopening and risks of further virus outbreaks were expected to restrain price gains through the first half of 2021.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559]

"However, the last four months have seen a faster and stronger than expected turnaround, particularly in markets that will see little or no effects from these headwinds. Even in those that are more exposed, demand is looking materially stronger than expected back in September, suggesting momentum will be better sustained.

Evans and Hassan says the upturn is being supported by record low interest rates; the confident expectation amongst borrowers that these rates will remain low for years to come; ample credit supply; and an improving economic backdrop, as the roll-out of vaccines promises to bring the pandemic to an end and drives a sustained lift in confidence.
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Westpac chief economist Bill Evans and economist Matthew Hassan's expectation is the market will flatten in 2023



Westpac now forecast 20 per cent dwelling price gains over next two years

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EXPERT OBSERVER

The ABS reported a 0.9% lift in the December quarter CPI which was greater than Westpac’s (and the market median) forecast of 0.7%. At two decimal places the CPI lifted 0.86% with the annual pace lifting a touch from 0.7%yr to 0.9%yr.

The core measures were around expectations with the trimmed mean lifting 0.4%qtr (WBC forecast 0.3%/market median 0.4%) while the weighted median gained 0.5%. Excluding the imputed series had little impact on the core measures.

The CPI is still being influenced by government taxes and subsidies which have been pushing and pulling on the data. However, outside of dwelling prices we found little to suggests more broad based inflationary pressures.

The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants. In many capital cities developers were able to lift prices in excess of the value of the grants, even in Perth and Hobart were the Federal Grant ($25,000) was supplemented by state government grants ($20,000).  

In our preview we had expected that the know rise in childcare would be offset by falling housing costs but rising underlying dwelling prices swamped the discounts. Prices fell in Sydney (-0.3%), Adelaide (-0.5%), Darwin (-2.3%) and Canberra (-0.5%) but lifted in Melbourne (0.9%), Brisbane (2.0%), Perth (2.2%) and Hobart (1.1%). The large rise in Perth and Hobart is somewhat very surprising given the lower level of house prices in those capital cities and the almost doubling of the size of the grants in those cities.

It is also worth noting that rents rose 0.1%, while modest it was stronger than the expected fall -0.3%. Electricity prices fell -7.5% due to a $600 in WA which saw electricity prices fall -66.7% in Perth.  

There was the expected rise in two key components; the 33.7% lift in childcare and the 10.9% rise in tobacco prices.

The ABS informed us earlier of the magnitude of the rise in child care due to the ending of free child care in Victoria. Overall, household equipment and services rose 3.4% (WBC forecast 3.5%). Excluding child care this group would have fallen -0.7%.

Tobacco prices rise every December quarter due to the re-indexing of the excise to the CPI.

Unlike the NZ CPI it was harder to find any broader inflationary pressures from the COVID induced changes in demand. Holiday travel cost did rise bit more than expected but household contents were close to expectations while clothing fell more than expected.

However, dwelling prices are running well ahead of our expectations and even rents have turned positive. These factors can have a meaningful impact on estimates of core inflation, something we will be looking more deeply at for our monthly update.

Justin Smirk is an economist at Westpac.
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The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants

Q4 CPI above expectations as dwelling prices surge: Westpac

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Westpac is cutting lending to self-managed super funds for residential investment properties, according to the Australian Financial Review.
The bank has cut maximum loan-to-value ratios from 80 to 70% and tightened other lending criteria.
Super fund borrowing has increased from less than $500 million to more than $9 billion, the Australian Taxation Office says over the past five years.
The recent financial system inquiry warned that current growth rates could create a systemic risk in the future, even though total borrowing was small compared to the overall economy.
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SMSF borrowing gets tougher for Westpac customers

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After interest rate hikes for investors, Westpac has now turned its attention to self-managed superannuation funds with likely changes including halving the maximum interest-only repayment term from 10 years to five.
SMSF property investors will be slugged with tougher rates, policies and processes in the lead up to this weekend's changes to caps on tax concessions being imposed by the federal government, The Australian Financial Review reported.
Westpac subsidiaries Bank of Melbourne, BankSA, St George, are also increasing mortgage rates for interest-only property buyers.
"This will help us meet our regulatory requirements and apply responsible lending practices in assessing a customer's ability to pay," a bank spokesman told the AFR.
Also, for a loan application, there has to be a minimum SMSF balance of $200,000.
"There are no exceptions to this requirement," the bank is warning clients.
SMSF trustees will also have to complete a new statutory declaration stating that customers have sought independent financial and legal advice when applying for an SMSF loan.
There are about 570,000 funds with about $654 billion under management and 1.1 million members, according to the AFR.
Borrowing – or gearing – for property by SMSFs has always been a debated issue because too much exposure to property could be a disaster in the event of a housing market crash.
A 2014 Financial Systems inquiry recommended that SMSF borrowing should cease.
Real property within SMSFs grew from $15 billion in 2003-04 to more than $100 billion by the end of last year, statistics from the Australian Taxation Office show.
Westpac changes, which are expected to be followed by other major lenders, will be imposed as the federal government introduces changes to concessional and non-concessional caps are introduced this Saturday.
That means the use of limited recourse borrowing arrangements will be included in a member's total superannuation and $1.6 million transfer balance cap calculations.
Lenders face higher risk with a limited recourse loan because it is debt in which the creditor has limited claims if a default occurs.
A typical SMSF property investor will pay about 5.85 per cent for a loan, which is about 135 basis points higher than for an investor loan outside a fund.
Over a 25-year term a borrower would make additional repayments of more than $270,000, assuming rates remained constant, according to analysis by Canstar.
Several other lenders have already restricted access to interest-only loans for SMSF by either no longer offering them or imposing strict loan-to-value ratios.
SMSF investors continue to increase exposure to listed trusts and other managed investments, latest analysis by the ATO shows.
For example, more than $207 billion is held in listed trusts compared to about $14 billion in 2012 as the global economy struggled to recover from the global financial crisis.
During that time cash and term deposits have fallen from about $134 billion to $28 billion.
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