Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Westpac

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EXPERT OBSERVER 

The Reserve Bank Board’s minutes for its December meeting emphasised that the Board is committed to substantial policy support for a considerable period.

The Minutes note that “Substantial policy support would therefore be required for a considerable period”.

Despite recent encouraging economic developments around the distribution of vaccines in both the US and UK and what the minutes refer to as “the recovery in the labour market was more advanced than expected” there remains significant caution with respect to the Board’s confidence in the recovery –“the unemployment rate had ticked up in recent months and broader measures of labour underutilisation remained high” – “there was still a significant amount of spare capacity in the labour market and this would remain a key policy challenge for some time”.

Overall, the sentiment from the Board is broadly unchanged, “the recovery was still expected to be uneven and protracted”.

A second outstanding theme in the minutes is the view on the housing market. The domestic housing market was described as “improving but uneven” and it was pointed out that “national housing prices had increased only a little since the outbreak of the pandemic”.

The decline in overseas migration had impacted the rental housing market with rents falling and “rental vacancy rates in inner city Sydney and Melbourne around their highest levels in many years”. There is some speculation that the authorities may see the need to slow the housing market in 2021 with some form of macro prudential policies.

Our view is that these record low rates will eventually move house prices to levels that will concern the authorities (particularly if confidence returns and the significant lift in new lending is not offset by rising repayments resulting in elevated levels of household debt) but that will be a story for 2023.

Conclusion

Yesterday we released our forecasts for the RBA’s approach to Quantitative Easing.

We expect that the current $100 billion program will be extended into a second $100 billion program before being reduced to two consecutive $50 billion programs that will see the policy covering both 2021 and 2022.

In fact, this coverage will fall a little short of the end 2022 date.

The current program which began on November 5 is described by the RBA as “approximately six months” would expire in late April/early May 2021.

We expect that will be immediately replaced by a second program of equal size and length taking the program to late October/early November 2021.

That program is expected to be replaced by a smaller, $50 billion, program of “approximately six months” to Late April/early May 2022; and finally, a fourth program to late October/early November 2022.

Two years of QE is unlikely to be currently priced into the curve but the approach set out in the December Minutes – “substantial policy support; considerable period”; “protracted recovery” all indicate that the RBA is certainly contemplating further QE.

In particular we are likely to hear more early in the new year as indicated by the Minutes, “Members agreed to keep the size of the bond purchase program under review”.
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Yesterday we forecast that the RBA Board would extend the current $100 billion QE program with a second $100 billion program (start date corrected to early May from June, 2021). The December Minutes give clear support for this view

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RBA Minutes support Westpac's QE views: Bill Evans

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Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans says words from the RBA governor Philip Lowe's September meeting minutes, paired with deputy governor Guy Debelle's speech last week, indicated to them monetary policy was going to change.
The September minutes, for the first time since March, mentioned something new in the monetary policy commentary.
"We are examining other ways in which monetary policy can be used to support the economy", the minutes read.
Evans says that new piece of information started the idea that the RBA may cut interest rates and change their policy, and then Debelle's speech referring to unemployment forecasts and the forecast for the economy being a "slow grind".
Debelle also pointed that policy should err on the side of overstimulating rather than under stimulating, Evans added.
"All of those factors pointed to us that the bank is likely to further cut interest rates", Evans says.
Last week Evans said the RBA rate cut <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-now-expect-rba-to-cut-in-october-bill-evans">would come at its next meeting in October</a>, however changed the forecast date when it was announced the budget would come on October 6.
Watch his full video update below.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ugYutEAULs8" frameborder="0" width="460" height="315"></iframe>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Why the RBA will cut the cash rate to 0.1 per cent: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Last Wednesday we released a bulletin in which we forecast that the RBA was set to cut the overnight cash rate to 0.1%; the three year target bond rate to 0.1%; the rate on the Term Funding Facility to 0.1%; and the rate the RBA pays on Exchange Settlement balances to 0.01%. 
We also forecast that the Bank would commit to further purchases of Australian and semi government bonds in maturities between 5 and 10 years. 
We expected that the action would be announced at the next Board meeting on October 6. 
We now expect the move will come a month later at the Board meeting on November 3.
October 6 happened to be Budget Day so our expectation was that it would be another “Team Australia” initiative with both the fiscal and monetary authorities working together to address the economic crisis. 
The dimension of the crisis is best summarised by the official forecasts that the unemployment rate is set to rise to 10% by the end of the year and only be back to around 7% by the end of 2022. 
Admittedly, the choice of Budget Day to announce a series of further monetary stimulus steps was without precedent (the Budget is usually on the second Tuesday of the month and the RBA Board meeting is on the first Tuesday of the month). 
But the current crisis is without precedent as the blowout in the Budget deficit from $1 billion in 2028/19; to $85 billion in 2019/20; to an expected $230 billion in 2020/21 testifies. 
The timing of the key speech from Deputy Governor Debelle, from our perspective, pointed to the October timing. 
The speech indicated more concern from the RBA with respect to the outlook and emphasised that the Bank had more scope to ease policy. 
It came a week before the “black out” period for the October meeting and was the last scheduled speech before that “black out”. 
Our reading of the speech was that any policy changes were likely to come very soon. 
In fact he noted that it would be better to err on the side of doing too much rather than too little. 
As we discussed last week, the arguments for the RBA not changing policy near a Budget due to the need to assess the contents of the Budget did not stand up especially in a crisis period. 
For example, it is very unlikely that the RBA will lower its 7% forecast for the unemployment rate by end 2022 as a result of the contents of the Budget. 
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The “wait and see" argument also does not pass the “history test”. 
Since 2000 the RBA has changed the cash rate in May (a week before the Budget) on eight occasions. 
May has been the “most popular “month over the whole year for adjusting policy in those 20 years(ironically, second is November with seven changes). 
But certainly cutting the cash rate a week before the Budget announcement has a much less significant effect on the government’s capacity to sell the Budget than acting on Budget Day. 
A central bank moving on Budget Day could be interpreted by the government and the bank itself as diverting attention away from the Budget and complicating the government’s task in “selling” the Budget. 
The Governor himself, who has been such a strong proponent of fiscal policy, may also see the advantages of allowing space for the government to promote its Budget. 
So in the eyes of the authorities, there was probably a trade- off between a “Team Australia” moment and the government having the clear air to sell its Budget without any distractions from other policy makers. 
We saw the package of measures in March (widely described as a Team Australia policy approach) as boosting confidence through the impact of the combined policies. 
Central banks are influenced by and aim to influence expectations. 
For our “Team Australia” theme to have been viable we needed to see expectations and support for the concept build over the course of last week following Dr Debelle’s speech on Tuesday and our note on Wednesday. 
That has not happened. 
But the arguments for RBA providing a further policy boost to the economy are just as relevant. 
Consequently, we expect that the policy initiatives that we have outlined will now be introduced on November 3 giving the government adequate time to sell its Budget without any distractions coming from monetary policy. 
Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac.
This was first published <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/September/er20200928BullRBAPolicyChanges.pdf" target="_blank">on WestpacIQ</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Westpac push RBA rate cut forecast to November

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In a speech yesterday the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank gave a fairly clear hint that the Board is set to cut the cash rate and other key policy rates at its October Board meeting.
The Bank is also likely to extend its objectives for bond purchases to include general support for the Australian and semi government yield curves in the five to ten year maturity range. It is likely to leave this commitment open ended at this stage.
We have discussed these issues in previous notes but did not expect the action as soon as the next Board meeting as now seems to be the case.
The theme is likely to be, as we saw in March, a Team Australia moment where the Reserve Bank is directly supporting a bold Federal Budget.
The prospect of the RBA “sitting back” to assess the Budget, which has been seen as the “norm” in previous years is not appropriate for these unique times.
We now expect the RBA to cut the overnight cash rate to 10 basis points; to adopt a 10 basis point three year bond target; and to adjust the rate on any new drawdowns of the Term Funding Facility to 10 basis points. All these rates are currently set at 25 basis points , which the Governor has generally described as the effective lower bound for the cash rate.
The Bank is also likely to reduce the rate which the Bank pays on Exchange Settlement Account balances from 10 basis points to 1 basis point.
If the banks are only earning 1 basis point on their ESA balances there will be significant incentive to purchase bonds, even if the bond is only yielding 10 basis points, or lend to the private sector.
BILL EVANS is <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/44613/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac's chief economist</a>
 
 
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Westpac now expect RBA to cut in October: Bill Evans

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Westpac economists have gone full circle in their house value forecasting, with prices to soar from December 2021.
They had been expecting between April 2020 and June next year, the national price index to fall by 10 per cent.
But last week they updated their forecasting, stating prices would only drop five per cent between April and June next year.
There have already been -2.3 per cent declines nationally, according to CoreLogic's data.
And now they're forecasting a much stronger rebound, accumulating 15 per cent over the two years from December next year.
"Apart from Victoria, where we expect prices to fall in the December quarter, we expect that in the December and March quarters in the other states, prices will be relatively stable with some upside pressure."
Evans says the June quarter and September quarter 2021 when markets have to deal with $240 billion of deferred loans currently on the balance sheet of the banks.
"That's about 620,000 borrowers, $180 billion in mortgages", Evans says.
"It's our view that risk will be well managed", Evans suggests, adding that there will be restructuring of loans, banks will be patient, and at the time there will be modest downward pressures on prices.
"But broadly speaking, The sort of fears that some of had, that that phase will be a very negative phase for house prices, I think will be unfounded."
Evans says the final phase will be that interest rates are at record lows, the overhang of the deferred loans will be behind us, and the central bank and the government will be focused on the economy, not on constraining bank lending or on over regulation
"That will be a very positive environment for the housing market."
To listed to Westpac economist Bill Evans full update, watch below. 
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Westpac's full circle - forecasting 15 per cent house gains post COVID

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Westpac are the latest bank to soften their house price decline forecast amid a resilient real estate market over COVID-19.
They had been predicting a 10 per cent fall in prices nationally from the peak in April to June 2021, with increase of around four per cent per annum over the following two years.
They expected Melbourne to be hit the worst, down -12 per cent, Sydney back -10 per cent and Brisbane and Adelaide -8 per cent.
But now, with real estate seemingly weathering the COVID-19 storm, Westpac forecast just five per cent declines between April and June next year.
There have already been -2.3 per cent declines nationally, according to CoreLogic's data.
No better news for locked-down Melbourne, whose prices are still predicted to be down -12 per cent. 
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20forecast.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20forecast.jpg" alt=""> Source: Westpac
But now they see Sydney contract in line with the national decline of -5 per cent, Brisbane back -2 per cent and Adelaide now to actually see two per cent gains.
Hassan and Evans say they have changed their view based on two reasons; a more substantial boost from lower interest rates, especially low fixed rates, and a milder than expected recession.
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"Westpac recently revised up its growth forecasts for the second half of 2020, from 2.8% to 4%. The new outlook reflects a view that NSW (+5%), QLD, (+5%), SA (+5%) and WA (+7%) would rebound strongly from the collapse (–7%) in the June quarter based on their milder and briefer COVID disruptions," Hassan and Evans note.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20mortgage%20interest%20rates.png" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20mortgage%20interest%20rates.png" alt=""> Source: Westpac
They even suggest the economic impact Victoria’s ‘second wave’ lockdown also "appears to be less severe than expected."
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They said they see the house price profile unfolding in four distinct stages, with the first stage largely passed.
That was the initial impact on prices from the collapse in economic activity in the June quarter which saw -4.6 per cent declines in Melbourne, -2.6 per cent in Sydney and Perth, -0.9 per cent in Brisbane and -0.1 per cent in Adelaide.
"However, the pace of deterioration outside of Melbourne has been milder than we expected back in March", Hassan and Evans write.
"The second stage, which will cover the December and March quarters, will be a period of relatively stable prices, possibly with some modest increases, although Melbourne will be at least one quarter behind the other states and will still be experiencing falls in prices in the December quarter.
"The third stage will see some limited resumption of downward pressure on prices through 2021, as we see an increase in ‘urgent’ or distressed sales relating to borrowers struggling or unable to resume mortgage repayments.
"Again, more adjustment is likely in Melbourne than the other cities.
"The fourth phase will come once this selling pressure has worked through the system and prices lift again."
They say the recovery will be supported by sustained low rates, which Hassan and Evans suggest are likely to be even lower than current levels, as well as ongoing support from regulators, substantially improved affordability, sustained fiscal support from both federal and state governments and a strengthening economic recovery.
Hassan and Evans even expect a vaccine for COVID-19 to become available in 2021.
 
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Westpac soften house price forecast, now predict five per cent peak to trough declines

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Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans has discussed what the RBA might be thinking in regards to considering further monetary stimulus.
Evans said there hasn't really been too much to talk about in terms of policy changes since the RBA made their major policy announcement back in March.
That was until last week when RBA governor Philip Lowe spoke about considering how further monetary measures may be able to support the economy.
The new revelations came as the RBA increased the term funding facility for banks by $57 billion.
Below in a video update, Evans discusses what further stimulus the RBA may be discussing.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oTU7BMx6vRE" frameborder="0" width="460" height="315"></iframe>
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Next steps from the RBA: Westpac's Bill Evans video update

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Westpac's Q3 financial update saw their mortgage delinquencies soar by 55 basis points due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Delinquencies over 30 days jumped from 188 bps to 243 bps over the three months to June.
There was an equally big jump in 90+ day delinquencies, up from 94 bps to 149 bps.
"Our approach to applying COVID-19 relief meant an increased number of customers entered hardship assistance", Westpac advised.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/8/18/Westpac%20delinquencies%20by%20state.jpg" alt="">
The big four bank provided 135,000 home loan customers with mortgage relief up to July 31, accounting for $51 billion of their $446 billion loan book.
64% of the mortgage holders seeking the relief were owner-occupiers, and 79 per cent were paying principal and interest repayments.
The mortgage deferrals primarily came from New South Wales and Victoria, who made up 70 per cent of all mortgages deferred.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/8/18/deferrals%20by%20state%20Westpac.jpg" alt="">
After checking in after three months of the extension, Westpac said that half were expected to return to payment, and the other half requested a further three month extension.
That leaves $30 billion still on pause.
Westpac's total loan portfolio shrunk a touch over the three months to June, down from $445.7 billion to $445.5 billion.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/8/18/Westpac%20loan%20book%20composition.jpg" alt="">
Owner-occupier numbers continued to grow, as investor loans continued their contraction, as did interest only loans, now below 22 per cent of Westpac's loan book.
More mortgage holders are now fixing their home loans, with record low rates on offer.
Although there's still no suggestion on the variable front that the RBA rates will hike rates for at least three years.
 
 
 
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Westpac's mortgage delinquencies jump due to COVID-19

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The drop in confidence reverses all of last month’s impressive gain, taking the Index back to the weak levels seen in May but still leaving it 16% above April’s extreme low of 75.
The timing of the survey is relevant. It covered the week in which the lock down was announced for Melbourne but the survey closed before the news of a significant cluster was reported for Sydney.
Sentiment has been rocked by the resurgence in Coronavirus cases over the last month. After averaging about ten a day through late May and early June, new cases have lifted significantly, running at close to 200 a day in the July survey week.
These increases have been almost exclusively in Melbourne prompting the state government to reinstate lockdowns for the city and several regional areas, and the closure of Victoria’s state borders – measures that were announced in the first half of the survey week.
Daily responses suggest these announcements were followed by a slight firming in sentiment in the second half of the week.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/15/Consumer%20sentiment.jpg" alt="">
It is of some concern that the survey pre-dates the news of a significant cluster of cases in Sydney which emerged last weekend – a day after the end of the survey.
State readings underscore the importance of virus-related developments: Victoria’s sentiment index plunged 10.4% in July but sentiment across the rest of the nation showed much milder declines (down 4.5% on a combined basis).
While milder, the weakness in other states is also likely to be linked to the outbreak in Victoria, reflecting concerns about the virus spreading interstate and spill-over effects on the wider economy.
The component detail shows the renewed COVID threat hit consumer expectations for the year ahead hard but also significantly undermined medium-term expectations for the economy.
The ‘economy, next 12mths’ sub-index recorded the biggest decline, slumping 14% in July to be 25% below pre-COVID levels – that compares to the 40% drop during the ‘first wave’ of the virus in March-April.
The ‘economy, next 5yrs’ sub-index recorded a sharp 10.3% fall.
This is disconcerting as medium- term expectations for the economy held up reasonably well during the initial COVID shock – only falling 5.1% in March–April – and were slightly above pre-COVID levels in June.
Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac 
 
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Westpac consumer sentiment drops as new COVID-19 cases shake confidence: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVERS
The Government’s Fiscal Stimulus Package is a bold initiative to bolster the Australian economy’s defences against the damage likely to be wrought by COVID–19.
It is imaginative and works through boosting investment while providing real incentives to protect jobs.
Earlier in the week Westpac forecast that without any Stimulus Package the economy would experience a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of negative growth (in March and June). Although, with growth expected to recover strongly in the second half of 2020 the unemployment rate was unlikely to exceed 6%
Our analysis of the Package suggests that the initiatives are only likely to offset the contraction in the June quarter that we had estimated earlier in the week rather than lift growth into positive territory.
However, the current domestic and global environment has deteriorated more rapidly than we had expected. The downside risks to our central case forecast that we envisaged earlier in the week are now materialising.
For us, despite the Government’s bold efforts the June quarter is still likely to show negative growth and Australia will experience a technical recession.
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Bill Evans is chief economist for Westpac.
Andrew Hanlan is a senior economist at Westpac.
This article was <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42540/14186/" target="_blank">first published on WestpacIQ</a>.
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