The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.

Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."

That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.

Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]

Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.

The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]

The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.

Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]

Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.

Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Westpac

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EXPERT OBSERVER 

The Reserve Bank Board’s minutes for its December meeting emphasised that the Board is committed to substantial policy support for a considerable period.

The Minutes note that “Substantial policy support would therefore be required for a considerable period”.

Despite recent encouraging economic developments around the distribution of vaccines in both the US and UK and what the minutes refer to as “the recovery in the labour market was more advanced than expected” there remains significant caution with respect to the Board’s confidence in the recovery –“the unemployment rate had ticked up in recent months and broader measures of labour underutilisation remained high” – “there was still a significant amount of spare capacity in the labour market and this would remain a key policy challenge for some time”.

Overall, the sentiment from the Board is broadly unchanged, “the recovery was still expected to be uneven and protracted”.

A second outstanding theme in the minutes is the view on the housing market. The domestic housing market was described as “improving but uneven” and it was pointed out that “national housing prices had increased only a little since the outbreak of the pandemic”.

The decline in overseas migration had impacted the rental housing market with rents falling and “rental vacancy rates in inner city Sydney and Melbourne around their highest levels in many years”. There is some speculation that the authorities may see the need to slow the housing market in 2021 with some form of macro prudential policies.

Our view is that these record low rates will eventually move house prices to levels that will concern the authorities (particularly if confidence returns and the significant lift in new lending is not offset by rising repayments resulting in elevated levels of household debt) but that will be a story for 2023.

Conclusion

Yesterday we released our forecasts for the RBA’s approach to Quantitative Easing.

We expect that the current $100 billion program will be extended into a second $100 billion program before being reduced to two consecutive $50 billion programs that will see the policy covering both 2021 and 2022.

In fact, this coverage will fall a little short of the end 2022 date.

The current program which began on November 5 is described by the RBA as “approximately six months” would expire in late April/early May 2021.

We expect that will be immediately replaced by a second program of equal size and length taking the program to late October/early November 2021.

That program is expected to be replaced by a smaller, $50 billion, program of “approximately six months” to Late April/early May 2022; and finally, a fourth program to late October/early November 2022.

Two years of QE is unlikely to be currently priced into the curve but the approach set out in the December Minutes – “substantial policy support; considerable period”; “protracted recovery” all indicate that the RBA is certainly contemplating further QE.

In particular we are likely to hear more early in the new year as indicated by the Minutes, “Members agreed to keep the size of the bond purchase program under review”.
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Yesterday we forecast that the RBA Board would extend the current $100 billion QE program with a second $100 billion program (start date corrected to early May from June, 2021). The December Minutes give clear support for this view

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RBA Minutes support Westpac's QE views: Bill Evans

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Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans says words from the RBA governor Philip Lowe's September meeting minutes, paired with deputy governor Guy Debelle's speech last week, indicated to them monetary policy was going to change.
The September minutes, for the first time since March, mentioned something new in the monetary policy commentary.
"We are examining other ways in which monetary policy can be used to support the economy", the minutes read.
Evans says that new piece of information started the idea that the RBA may cut interest rates and change their policy, and then Debelle's speech referring to unemployment forecasts and the forecast for the economy being a "slow grind".
Debelle also pointed that policy should err on the side of overstimulating rather than under stimulating, Evans added.
"All of those factors pointed to us that the bank is likely to further cut interest rates", Evans says.
Last week Evans said the RBA rate cut <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-now-expect-rba-to-cut-in-october-bill-evans">would come at its next meeting in October</a>, however changed the forecast date when it was announced the budget would come on October 6.
Watch his full video update below.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ugYutEAULs8" frameborder="0" width="460" height="315"></iframe>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Why the RBA will cut the cash rate to 0.1 per cent: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Last Wednesday we released a bulletin in which we forecast that the RBA was set to cut the overnight cash rate to 0.1%; the three year target bond rate to 0.1%; the rate on the Term Funding Facility to 0.1%; and the rate the RBA pays on Exchange Settlement balances to 0.01%. 
We also forecast that the Bank would commit to further purchases of Australian and semi government bonds in maturities between 5 and 10 years. 
We expected that the action would be announced at the next Board meeting on October 6. 
We now expect the move will come a month later at the Board meeting on November 3.
October 6 happened to be Budget Day so our expectation was that it would be another “Team Australia” initiative with both the fiscal and monetary authorities working together to address the economic crisis. 
The dimension of the crisis is best summarised by the official forecasts that the unemployment rate is set to rise to 10% by the end of the year and only be back to around 7% by the end of 2022. 
Admittedly, the choice of Budget Day to announce a series of further monetary stimulus steps was without precedent (the Budget is usually on the second Tuesday of the month and the RBA Board meeting is on the first Tuesday of the month). 
But the current crisis is without precedent as the blowout in the Budget deficit from $1 billion in 2028/19; to $85 billion in 2019/20; to an expected $230 billion in 2020/21 testifies. 
The timing of the key speech from Deputy Governor Debelle, from our perspective, pointed to the October timing. 
The speech indicated more concern from the RBA with respect to the outlook and emphasised that the Bank had more scope to ease policy. 
It came a week before the “black out” period for the October meeting and was the last scheduled speech before that “black out”. 
Our reading of the speech was that any policy changes were likely to come very soon. 
In fact he noted that it would be better to err on the side of doing too much rather than too little. 
As we discussed last week, the arguments for the RBA not changing policy near a Budget due to the need to assess the contents of the Budget did not stand up especially in a crisis period. 
For example, it is very unlikely that the RBA will lower its 7% forecast for the unemployment rate by end 2022 as a result of the contents of the Budget. 
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The “wait and see" argument also does not pass the “history test”. 
Since 2000 the RBA has changed the cash rate in May (a week before the Budget) on eight occasions. 
May has been the “most popular “month over the whole year for adjusting policy in those 20 years(ironically, second is November with seven changes). 
But certainly cutting the cash rate a week before the Budget announcement has a much less significant effect on the government’s capacity to sell the Budget than acting on Budget Day. 
A central bank moving on Budget Day could be interpreted by the government and the bank itself as diverting attention away from the Budget and complicating the government’s task in “selling” the Budget. 
The Governor himself, who has been such a strong proponent of fiscal policy, may also see the advantages of allowing space for the government to promote its Budget. 
So in the eyes of the authorities, there was probably a trade- off between a “Team Australia” moment and the government having the clear air to sell its Budget without any distractions from other policy makers. 
We saw the package of measures in March (widely described as a Team Australia policy approach) as boosting confidence through the impact of the combined policies. 
Central banks are influenced by and aim to influence expectations. 
For our “Team Australia” theme to have been viable we needed to see expectations and support for the concept build over the course of last week following Dr Debelle’s speech on Tuesday and our note on Wednesday. 
That has not happened. 
But the arguments for RBA providing a further policy boost to the economy are just as relevant. 
Consequently, we expect that the policy initiatives that we have outlined will now be introduced on November 3 giving the government adequate time to sell its Budget without any distractions coming from monetary policy. 
Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac.
This was first published <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/September/er20200928BullRBAPolicyChanges.pdf" target="_blank">on WestpacIQ</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Westpac push RBA rate cut forecast to November

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In a speech yesterday the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank gave a fairly clear hint that the Board is set to cut the cash rate and other key policy rates at its October Board meeting.
The Bank is also likely to extend its objectives for bond purchases to include general support for the Australian and semi government yield curves in the five to ten year maturity range. It is likely to leave this commitment open ended at this stage.
We have discussed these issues in previous notes but did not expect the action as soon as the next Board meeting as now seems to be the case.
The theme is likely to be, as we saw in March, a Team Australia moment where the Reserve Bank is directly supporting a bold Federal Budget.
The prospect of the RBA “sitting back” to assess the Budget, which has been seen as the “norm” in previous years is not appropriate for these unique times.
We now expect the RBA to cut the overnight cash rate to 10 basis points; to adopt a 10 basis point three year bond target; and to adjust the rate on any new drawdowns of the Term Funding Facility to 10 basis points. All these rates are currently set at 25 basis points , which the Governor has generally described as the effective lower bound for the cash rate.
The Bank is also likely to reduce the rate which the Bank pays on Exchange Settlement Account balances from 10 basis points to 1 basis point.
If the banks are only earning 1 basis point on their ESA balances there will be significant incentive to purchase bonds, even if the bond is only yielding 10 basis points, or lend to the private sector.
BILL EVANS is <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/44613/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac's chief economist</a>
 
 
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Westpac now expect RBA to cut in October: Bill Evans

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Westpac economists have gone full circle in their house value forecasting, with prices to soar from December 2021.
They had been expecting between April 2020 and June next year, the national price index to fall by 10 per cent.
But last week they updated their forecasting, stating prices would only drop five per cent between April and June next year.
There have already been -2.3 per cent declines nationally, according to CoreLogic's data.
And now they're forecasting a much stronger rebound, accumulating 15 per cent over the two years from December next year.
"Apart from Victoria, where we expect prices to fall in the December quarter, we expect that in the December and March quarters in the other states, prices will be relatively stable with some upside pressure."
Evans says the June quarter and September quarter 2021 when markets have to deal with $240 billion of deferred loans currently on the balance sheet of the banks.
"That's about 620,000 borrowers, $180 billion in mortgages", Evans says.
"It's our view that risk will be well managed", Evans suggests, adding that there will be restructuring of loans, banks will be patient, and at the time there will be modest downward pressures on prices.
"But broadly speaking, The sort of fears that some of had, that that phase will be a very negative phase for house prices, I think will be unfounded."
Evans says the final phase will be that interest rates are at record lows, the overhang of the deferred loans will be behind us, and the central bank and the government will be focused on the economy, not on constraining bank lending or on over regulation
"That will be a very positive environment for the housing market."
To listed to Westpac economist Bill Evans full update, watch below. 
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FA3Aaet9tEw" frameborder="0" width="460" height="315"></iframe>
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Westpac's full circle - forecasting 15 per cent house gains post COVID

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Westpac are the latest bank to soften their house price decline forecast amid a resilient real estate market over COVID-19.
They had been predicting a 10 per cent fall in prices nationally from the peak in April to June 2021, with increase of around four per cent per annum over the following two years.
They expected Melbourne to be hit the worst, down -12 per cent, Sydney back -10 per cent and Brisbane and Adelaide -8 per cent.
But now, with real estate seemingly weathering the COVID-19 storm, Westpac forecast just five per cent declines between April and June next year.
There have already been -2.3 per cent declines nationally, according to CoreLogic's data.
No better news for locked-down Melbourne, whose prices are still predicted to be down -12 per cent. 
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20forecast.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20forecast.jpg" alt=""> Source: Westpac
But now they see Sydney contract in line with the national decline of -5 per cent, Brisbane back -2 per cent and Adelaide now to actually see two per cent gains.
Hassan and Evans say they have changed their view based on two reasons; a more substantial boost from lower interest rates, especially low fixed rates, and a milder than expected recession.
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"Westpac recently revised up its growth forecasts for the second half of 2020, from 2.8% to 4%. The new outlook reflects a view that NSW (+5%), QLD, (+5%), SA (+5%) and WA (+7%) would rebound strongly from the collapse (–7%) in the June quarter based on their milder and briefer COVID disruptions," Hassan and Evans note.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20mortgage%20interest%20rates.png" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Westpac%20mortgage%20interest%20rates.png" alt=""> Source: Westpac
They even suggest the economic impact Victoria’s ‘second wave’ lockdown also "appears to be less severe than expected."
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They said they see the house price profile unfolding in four distinct stages, with the first stage largely passed.
That was the initial impact on prices from the collapse in economic activity in the June quarter which saw -4.6 per cent declines in Melbourne, -2.6 per cent in Sydney and Perth, -0.9 per cent in Brisbane and -0.1 per cent in Adelaide.
"However, the pace of deterioration outside of Melbourne has been milder than we expected back in March", Hassan and Evans write.
"The second stage, which will cover the December and March quarters, will be a period of relatively stable prices, possibly with some modest increases, although Melbourne will be at least one quarter behind the other states and will still be experiencing falls in prices in the December quarter.
"The third stage will see some limited resumption of downward pressure on prices through 2021, as we see an increase in ‘urgent’ or distressed sales relating to borrowers struggling or unable to resume mortgage repayments.
"Again, more adjustment is likely in Melbourne than the other cities.
"The fourth phase will come once this selling pressure has worked through the system and prices lift again."
They say the recovery will be supported by sustained low rates, which Hassan and Evans suggest are likely to be even lower than current levels, as well as ongoing support from regulators, substantially improved affordability, sustained fiscal support from both federal and state governments and a strengthening economic recovery.
Hassan and Evans even expect a vaccine for COVID-19 to become available in 2021.
 
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Westpac soften house price forecast, now predict five per cent peak to trough declines

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Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans has discussed what the RBA might be thinking in regards to considering further monetary stimulus.
Evans said there hasn't really been too much to talk about in terms of policy changes since the RBA made their major policy announcement back in March.
That was until last week when RBA governor Philip Lowe spoke about considering how further monetary measures may be able to support the economy.
The new revelations came as the RBA increased the term funding facility for banks by $57 billion.
Below in a video update, Evans discusses what further stimulus the RBA may be discussing.
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oTU7BMx6vRE" frameborder="0" width="460" height="315"></iframe>
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Next steps from the RBA: Westpac's Bill Evans video update

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Westpac's Q3 financial update saw their mortgage delinquencies soar by 55 basis points due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Delinquencies over 30 days jumped from 188 bps to 243 bps over the three months to June.
There was an equally big jump in 90+ day delinquencies, up from 94 bps to 149 bps.
"Our approach to applying COVID-19 relief meant an increased number of customers entered hardship assistance", Westpac advised.
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The big four bank provided 135,000 home loan customers with mortgage relief up to July 31, accounting for $51 billion of their $446 billion loan book.
64% of the mortgage holders seeking the relief were owner-occupiers, and 79 per cent were paying principal and interest repayments.
The mortgage deferrals primarily came from New South Wales and Victoria, who made up 70 per cent of all mortgages deferred.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/8/18/deferrals%20by%20state%20Westpac.jpg" alt="">
After checking in after three months of the extension, Westpac said that half were expected to return to payment, and the other half requested a further three month extension.
That leaves $30 billion still on pause.
Westpac's total loan portfolio shrunk a touch over the three months to June, down from $445.7 billion to $445.5 billion.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/8/18/Westpac%20loan%20book%20composition.jpg" alt="">
Owner-occupier numbers continued to grow, as investor loans continued their contraction, as did interest only loans, now below 22 per cent of Westpac's loan book.
More mortgage holders are now fixing their home loans, with record low rates on offer.
Although there's still no suggestion on the variable front that the RBA rates will hike rates for at least three years.
 
 
 
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Westpac's mortgage delinquencies jump due to COVID-19

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The drop in confidence reverses all of last month’s impressive gain, taking the Index back to the weak levels seen in May but still leaving it 16% above April’s extreme low of 75.
The timing of the survey is relevant. It covered the week in which the lock down was announced for Melbourne but the survey closed before the news of a significant cluster was reported for Sydney.
Sentiment has been rocked by the resurgence in Coronavirus cases over the last month. After averaging about ten a day through late May and early June, new cases have lifted significantly, running at close to 200 a day in the July survey week.
These increases have been almost exclusively in Melbourne prompting the state government to reinstate lockdowns for the city and several regional areas, and the closure of Victoria’s state borders – measures that were announced in the first half of the survey week.
Daily responses suggest these announcements were followed by a slight firming in sentiment in the second half of the week.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/15/Consumer%20sentiment.jpg" alt="">
It is of some concern that the survey pre-dates the news of a significant cluster of cases in Sydney which emerged last weekend – a day after the end of the survey.
State readings underscore the importance of virus-related developments: Victoria’s sentiment index plunged 10.4% in July but sentiment across the rest of the nation showed much milder declines (down 4.5% on a combined basis).
While milder, the weakness in other states is also likely to be linked to the outbreak in Victoria, reflecting concerns about the virus spreading interstate and spill-over effects on the wider economy.
The component detail shows the renewed COVID threat hit consumer expectations for the year ahead hard but also significantly undermined medium-term expectations for the economy.
The ‘economy, next 12mths’ sub-index recorded the biggest decline, slumping 14% in July to be 25% below pre-COVID levels – that compares to the 40% drop during the ‘first wave’ of the virus in March-April.
The ‘economy, next 5yrs’ sub-index recorded a sharp 10.3% fall.
This is disconcerting as medium- term expectations for the economy held up reasonably well during the initial COVID shock – only falling 5.1% in March–April – and were slightly above pre-COVID levels in June.
Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac 
 
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Westpac consumer sentiment drops as new COVID-19 cases shake confidence: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVERS
The Government’s Fiscal Stimulus Package is a bold initiative to bolster the Australian economy’s defences against the damage likely to be wrought by COVID–19.
It is imaginative and works through boosting investment while providing real incentives to protect jobs.
Earlier in the week Westpac forecast that without any Stimulus Package the economy would experience a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of negative growth (in March and June). Although, with growth expected to recover strongly in the second half of 2020 the unemployment rate was unlikely to exceed 6%
Our analysis of the Package suggests that the initiatives are only likely to offset the contraction in the June quarter that we had estimated earlier in the week rather than lift growth into positive territory.
However, the current domestic and global environment has deteriorated more rapidly than we had expected. The downside risks to our central case forecast that we envisaged earlier in the week are now materialising.
For us, despite the Government’s bold efforts the June quarter is still likely to show negative growth and Australia will experience a technical recession.
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Bill Evans is chief economist for Westpac.
Andrew Hanlan is a senior economist at Westpac.
This article was <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42540/14186/" target="_blank">first published on WestpacIQ</a>.
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