December quarter sees GDP grow 3.1%: Westpac's Andrew Hanlan's insights

Expert Observer

The Q4 National Accounts confirmed a brisk rebound in activity.

GDP printed at 3.1%qtr, -1.1%yr.

This was above expectations, market median and Westpac 2.5%.

As we had flagged, the risks were to the upside – with the expenditure partials having surprised to the high side. That is how it played out.

The key theme, the economy rebounded rapidly through Q3, +3.4%, and Q4, +3.1%, with considerable momentum into 2021.

Consumers and businesses are upbeat, state governments are spending up, the housing market is red hot and the vaccine roll-out is underway.

Success on the health front has permitted the rolling back of most, but not all, covid restrictions. Victoria emerging from a second lock-down boosted activity in Q4 and will do so again in Q1.

The recovery broadened in Q4:

(1) home building, up 4.1%, following a +1.6% for Q3, the first gains since June 2018, in response to cheap credit and government incentives, and

(2) business investment advanced, up 2.6%, led by equipment spending, +8.1%, in response to the accelerated depreciation allowance. That follows a string of negatives.

Real estate activity (ownership transfer costs) surged a further 15.2%, after a 21.6% rebound in Q3, to be 15.3% higher over the year – with the established housing market booming.

Consumer’s ability and willingness to spend is the key dynamic – certainly the relaxing of covid restrictions provides consumers with more opportunities to spend.

The household saving ratio spiked to 22% in Q2, on the drop in spending associated with the lock-down and the wave of government income support. The savings rate moderated to 18.7% in Q3 and retraced to 12% in Q4 and will unwind further in 2021.

The critically important point, while there was a tapering of government support in Q4, which saw business profits moderate off a high level, consumers have a sizeable savings buffer to fund a further lift in spending – and that is what they are choosing to do.

The consumer picture was largely as expected with spending posting another strong gain, led by normalising conditions in Victoria, and despite a material drag on incomes from reduced fiscal supports.

Total consumption rose 4.3%qtr to be down just 2.7%yr. Victoria posted a 10.4% gain in the quarter, spending up 2.3%qtr across the other states combined.

The spending detail was a little stronger than expected around vehicles and retail but a touch softer than expected on services.

Around incomes, wages rose 1.4%qtr with a strong increase in employment and hours worked more than offsetting initial drags from the wind-back in JobKeeper support. However real disposable income – including small business and non wage incomes and net of interest and tax – recorded a sizeable 3.3% fall. The rise in spending was thus funded out of a reduction in new savings, the savings rate falling from 18.7% in Q3 to 12% in Q4

Public demand continues to be a growth driver, up 1.0% in the quarter and a very brisk 6.5% over the year, in part driven by the response to covid.

Net exports were a small negative, -0.1ppt, as imports roared back, +4.9%, to meet the brisk rebound in domestic demand. Inventories, in total, subtracted -0.1ppt.

In other detail, the Expenditure measure of GDP printed at 3.0%, Income at 3.3% and Production at 3.1%.

Andrew Hanlan is a senior economist at Westpac.