Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

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One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Terry Ryder

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I imagine there will always be people who see the CBD as the beacon for all things real estate. They are the diehards who measure property in terms of its proximity to the tall office buildings.
It’s a cherished belief founded in myth and fantasy.
I’m frequently assaulted by emails from people who think you’re nowhere if you’re not within 10 kilometres of a CBD. They’re people who haven’t made the transition to the new century. Nor have they conducted any meaningful research.
There was a time when the CBDs were the centre of the universe because most of the jobs were there, a lot of the industry was there and most of the shops were there. It was important to live close to this hub of all things important.
Historically, industrial uses occupied riverside property in or near the city centre. Over time that has changed. These days, businesses with industrial premises and warehousing needs don’t want to be in the central city. They want to be close to major transport routes and on less expensive land, which means industrial businesses and their jobs have migrated progressively to the outer suburbs.
Also historically, the major shopping precincts were central city. That was before the creation of regional shopping centres. These days, no one goes into the CBD to do their shopping. The only people who shop in the city centre are those who work or live there.
That leaves office property as the cornerstone of CBD relevance. But that is being eroded gradually as well. Office precincts have sprouted in the middle and outer ring suburbs, providing cheaper office space for businesses that don’t really need to be in the city centre.
In modern Australia, CBDs are no longer the hubs of all things important. Increasingly, the economic centre of our major cities is shifting away the CBDs. Increasingly, the big employment nodes are a long way from the city centre.
Being close to the CBD is no longer a proper benchmark for the worth of a piece of real estate. Today, these are many factors more important than the CBD in terms of what you need to be near to have intrinsic value.
They include infrastructure, such as transport links, medical services and education facilities. They also include jobs nodes.
Major jobs nodes which are usually a lot way from the central city include sea ports, airports, industrial estates, office parks, logistics centres, heavy industry, regional shopping centres, bulky goods retail precincts, and many others.
I read a report this week which confirms that Sydney’s “economic centre of gravity” is now some distance from the CBD. According to analysis by the Committee for Sydney and consultancy PwC, the economic centre of gravity – the point around which all economic output is evenly balanced – is at Concord, 9 kilometres west of the CBD.
The report found that the CBD precinct contributes about 20% of the Sydney economy. This means the CBD is important. It also means that 80% of the Sydney economy is elsewhere.
Key suburban commercial centres like North Sydney, Macquarie Park, Parramatta, Homebush, Mascot and Chatswood collectively also contribute around 20% of the Sydney economy. There’s another 60% running around out there in the suburbs of the Sydney metropolitan area.
The report suggested the economic centre of gravity has been moving north-west from the CBD for more than a decade, thanks to the commercial hubs that have developed at Macquarie Park, Sydney Olympic Park, Parramatta and other suburban locations.
It also suggested that Melbourne's economic centre of gravity is now 6.7 kilometres south-east of the city’s CBD.
The report suggests that one of the outcomes of the rising influence of alternative business centres in Sydney is the need for better transport connections between them.
This tends to support the Hotspotting theory that infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, is the greatest generator of growth in property markets.
Commercial centres and jobs nodes have moved further and further from the traditional CBDs. The locations that have those precincts, as well as good transport links, strong infrastructure and affordable real estate, are the places that attract the lion’s share of demand from real estate buyers.
That mass demand is driving house prices. As I wrote in this column on Tuesday, research from DSRdata.com.au shows that growth in the outer-ring suburbs of Sydney has exceeded that in the inner-ring over the past three years.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

There's more to a great investment than proximity to the CBD: Terry Ryder

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Many investors fret about not being able to afford to buy in locations they regard as “prime”. Their definition of prime is often “expensive” and/or “inner-city”. And that’s their first mistake.
They think this is where the best growth lies. They think this because the supremacy of prime property is most of real estate’s most enduring myths, promoted by the self-interested and the poorly-informed.
But investors on a budget can relax. The research keeps showing that the best capital growth rates over time are found, consistently, in cheaper areas.
I wrote on Property Observer on 16 March: “My own research contradicts the claims of the supremacy of “prime” property. The Top End markets never produce the best long-term capital growth rates. In most of our capital cities, the lists of best suburbs for long-term growth are dominated by the affordable end of town.”
I commented that Logan City, a downmarket sector in the Brisbane metropolitan area, was our pick as the number one market for investors right now.
My research, confirming that affordable areas with identifiable growth drivers consistently provide the best capital growth rates, has been reinforced by information provided to me by researcher Jeremy Sheppard, who runs the DSRdata.com.au website.
Sheppard this week completed some research on the precincts of the Sydney metropolitan area, comparing the degree of capital growth in the inner, middle and outer ring areas over the past three years – the period in which the Sydney market has been playing catch-up after a lengthy period of under-performance.
Over the three years up to the March 2015 Quarter, inner ring suburbs (suburbs within 16 kilometres of the CBD) have grown 26.7%, with a median price now around $1,062,400.
The middle ring suburbs (16-32 kilometres from the CBD) have increased 29.1% to $695,200. The biggest increase, narrowly, has been in the outer ring suburbs (32-48 kilometres from the CBD), up 29.7% to $494,000.
Sheppard’s chart of growth, quarter by quarter, since early 2012 shows that the outer ring suburbs have the least volatility, with consistent growth quarter by quarter. The middle ring and inner ring areas have both had periods when the median price has dropped, albeit briefly, in the past three years.
These results confirm Hotspotting research which, over many years, has found that the best growth rates occur in the more affordable areas in all our major cities.
When examined over a longer time period than three years, the differences in the growth rates tend to be larger. Top end suburbs are always more volatile markets than the bottom end areas.
People buy where they can afford and the great mass of buyer demand goes to affordable areas, especially those that offer good transport links, good infrastructure generally and proximity to jobs nodes (many big employment precincts are a long way from the CBDs of our major cities).
So when people with $800,000 or $1 million to spend ask me which of a list of upmarket suburbs they should buy in, my answer is usually along these lines: None of the above. If you have the capacity to invest that much, don’t pump it all into one property – buy two or three properties in affordable locations with growth prospects.
The ideal would be three properties in affordable growth areas in three different states.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The first mistake many investors make: Terry Ryder

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Do the economists and journalists who attribute Sydney’s busy market to low interest rates ever wonder why other cities aren’t pumping?
Are record low interest rates a secret known only to Sydney residents?
It brings to mind a talk I witnessed two to three years ago by Craig James from CommSec. He commented that economists with skinny knowledge used China as their fallback explanation of everything, when all else failed. Exports are rising? It’s China. The dollar’s high? China. WA’s booming? China. Real estate is strong? China.
He was only half joking.
And currently it’s no joke that economists who understand nothing about residential real estate will use interest rates as their catch-all rationale for elevated activity in Sydney’s market.
The Australian this week was the latest media outlet to fall into the trap with its headline “Rate cut driving home price surge: analysts”.
The article was written by a journalist whose knowledge of real estate markets could be written on the back of a postage stamp in crayon. The headline writer knew even less. And the analysts quoted in the article knew the least of all.
It’s just too easy, almost flippant, to dismiss Sydney’s heightened activity as a factor of low interest rates.
As an explanation, it’s plain wrong.
We’ve had low, low interest rates for a long time now. Yet in the past 12 months, dwelling values have fallen (marginally) in three of our capital cities. Three others have grown less than 3% in annual terms. Another has managed a 5% rise in values. Only Sydney is writing boom numbers.
Why are record low interest rates not stimulating markets around the nation? Why do we not have conditions replicating those from 2001 to 2003, when every capital city delivered double-digit growth for at least two consecutive years?
For the benefit of the uneducated, including the economists, let me translate. It’s nothing to do with interest rates.
A clue to the rise of Sydney markets was contained in the events of last weekend. No, not the auction results. I refer to the election results.
The NSW government last weekend became the first incumbent in years to survive an election with a clear majority. Every other state or federal government has been mercilessly dumped, including Queensland Premier Campbell Newman who managed to squander the greatest landslide majority in the history of politics, or (in the case of the South Australian government) ended up with a hung parliament.
The NSW government was returned because it was judged to be a competent administrator of the state’s finances and fortunes.
The NSW economy – and the Sydney property market – started to turn around when the current Liberal administration won office four years ago.
It defeated the ALP government which, after 16 years in power had become arrogant, complacent, corrupt and downright incompetent. It was undoubtedly the worst government I’ve seen anywhere. Under that appalling regime with its revolving door premiership, nothing was being generated in NSW other than negative headlines. No infrastructure was being built and the economy had stagnated.
Four years ago Adelaide had more infrastructure under development than did Sydney.
With the change in government in 2011, NSW came off life support. It began to recover and then to thrive. Today it has the number one economy in the nation, according to CommSec’s State of the States report. Sydney is alive with massive infrastructure projects, with more in the planning pipeline.
Nothing drives residential property markets like infrastructure spending. The North-West Rail Link, the South-West Rail Link, the NorthConnex Motorway, the M4 upgrade, various major hospital expansions - plus early moves for the Badgerys Creek airport, the WestConnex motorway, the M9 Orbital, the light rail project and others – are front and centre in the revitalisation of Sydney’s economy and property markets.
Many tens of billions of dollars in investment is percolating through the Sydney economy, creating business activity and jobs at a rate not seen in NSW for a decade.
Before all this happened, Sydney was the great under-achiever of Australian real estate. Even with the growth of the past two years, Sydney still has one of the lowest 10-year growth averages among the state and territory capital cities.
Essentially, Sydney has been playing catch-up with long-term growth leaders like Perth, Darwin and Melbourne – and that’s been a significant catalyst to Sydney’s growth.
But, if you heed the nation’s chattering economists, none of that matters. It’s all about interest rates.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Sydney's price boom isn't about interest rates: Terry Ryder

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There are few opportunities these days to write anything bullish about the Canberra property market.
All the data suggests prices are stagnating or falling and rents are down significantly, with a 5% annual decline for the median house rent and a 7% fall for apartments.
While Sydney three hours down the road is pumped up by a strong state economy, a big infrastructure spend and the confidence created by competent governance, Canberra is mired in negativity and uncertainty thanks for cuts to the public service and an oversupply of apartments.
But, as is so often the case, there are different stories to be found if you dig beneath the generalised figures about a city.
The Gungahlin precinct is one sector of the Canberra market showing some life. It will benefit in future from the new light rail system, as well as the relocation of 650 public service jobs to that part of Canberra.
The territory's Chief Minister Andrew Barr has confirmed that 400 public servants from ACT Shared Services will vacate Woden this year and head north to Gungahlin.
The move will leave a lot of empty spaces in the Callam Offices complex at Woden, but the biggest impact is likely to be the positive one for Gungahlin – particularly as another 250 public servants will pulled from other areas and relocated to Gungahlin as well. 
The move, taken in conjunction with other unhelpful events, will hurt the economy of Woden and possibly property markets in surrounding areas, which are struggling already.
<a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/2015s-perfect-storm-for-woden-will-be-the-public-service-exodus-20150222-13gvdr" target="_blank">The Canberra Times reported</a>: Woden Valley Community Council chairman Martin Miller said the town centre was "probably not prepared" for the departure of so many regular workers.  "The federal public service is decreasing its presence as well – the Department of Human Services was moved to Tuggeranong years ago and the Department of Veterans Affairs is due to move as well," Miller said. "It will have an impact – it's sort of like the perfect storm."
Property markets in suburbs surrounding the Woden Town Centre have been weak performers in recent years. Suburbs like Phillip, Lyons, Hughes and Mawson have median house prices lower than they were three years ago.
They, along with others like Garran, Chifley and Pearce, all have long-term capital growth rates in the 3-4% range, which is poor by national standards.
Where Woden loses, Gungahlin gains. Generally, this precinct of Canberra looks to have better prospects than most in the national capital, helped by the Capital Metro light rail system, which will link Gungahlin to the city centre.
The light rail system is currently in the procurement stages. The ACT government has named four private business consortiums, which will be considered for the construction of the $800 million light rail line.
The targeted travel time from Gungahlin to the city via Northbourne Avenue, the Federal Highway and Flemington Road is 25 minutes. Experience shows that new transport infrastructure can be a game-changer for residential property markets.
The Gungahlin precinct is currently one of the few sections of the Canberra market showing some life. While Canberra prices generally have not grown in the past 12 months, some suburbs in the Gungahlin area have delivered solid increases in median house prices.
They include Palmerston (up 7%), Amaroo (up 5%) and Harrison (up 6%).
Unlike the Woden precinct, suburbs around Gungahlin mostly have values higher than three years ago, though not a lot higher. Amaroo, for example, has grown an average of 4% per year over the past three years.
This precinct also shows up in The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting. It has a couple of suburbs listed as Rising Steadily – Palmerston and Nicholls – and others classified as Consistency markets, including Ngunnawal, Franklin and Amaroo.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Not all doom and gloom for Canberra: Terry Ryder

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The Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ), unlike its sermonising counterpart in Western Australia, tends not to tell the public what to think about local markets. It just publishes the figures and leaves it to consumers to make their own assessments.
Its latest quarterly Market Monitor is revealing about places that are doing well and those looking a bit pale.
The research figures confirm that Brisbane is rising and that some of the municipalities that make up the Greater Brisbane Area did particularly well in the most latest quarter.
The figures show that regional Queensland has struggled generally over the past five years, but many cities sent out strong recovery signals last year.
That, however, excludes the regional cities saturated by developer excess, like Gladstone and Mackay. And it also excludes the Gold Coast apartment market, which still has numbers that would make a prudent investor cautious.
The REIQ figures suggest Brisbane City (the LGA, not the metro area) house prices rose an average 8.3% last year.
Surrounding municipalities, like Logan City, Ipswich City and Redland City, all rose, but in the 3-4% growth range. But in the latest quarter there were more significant increases, particularly in Ipswich and Logan, suggesting that recent rises in sales activity are starting to translate into meaningful price growth.
On the other hand, unit markets are lukewarm, especially those in the inner-city, subdued by high vacancies. Unit markets in more distant parts of the Brisbane metro area are showing better growth in median prices, notably in the Ipswich, Moreton Bay and Redland LGAs.
The Sunshine Coast has been the best of the regional cities, with a 6.7% annual rise in median house prices. Buderim, consistently the most popular suburb in the region, rose 11% and is one of relatively few Queensland locations which have done well over the past five years (up 25%).
Toowoomba, a regional city we have advocated for several years, is up 22% in five years, including 6.3% last year. Some suburbs rose in double digits.
By contrast, the neighbouring Western Downs region (which includes towns where developers over-built in their efforts to exploit the coal seam gas boom), recorded a 14% decline in its median house price last year. Several towns have very high vacancies, with resources workers accommodated in temporary villages rather than rental houses in the towns.
The Gold Coast numbers are interesting because they contrast the housing markets (which are doing well) with the highrise apartment locations (which continue to stutter).
The Gold Coast City median house price has recorded an annual rise of 6.5%, with a major jump in the most recent quarter. This corresponds with the increase in sales volumes evident over the past 18 months. Most of the markets with the best annual rises are inland housing markets in the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor, including Helensvale, Ormeau and Upper Coomera (which recorded a 7.4% annual rise in its median price).
But apartment markets continue to struggle. The median unit price for Gold Coast City is still 3.4% lower than it was five years ago. The median price for Surfers Paradise dropped 5.6% last year and remains almost 10% lower than five years ago. Southport’s median is 11.2% lower and Broadbeach remains down 7.5%.
This is what oversupply does to property prices. Keep those numbers in mind when you consider the thousands of apartments to be built in the new mega highrise – and all the marketing hype that will come with it, although most of it will be directed at China.
In similar vein, Noosa’s housing market looks to be showing some growth again but its apartment market is deathly pale. Across the Noosa LGA, the median apartment price remains 8.2% lower than it was five years ago.
At dear old Noosa Heads, that over-rated and ageing beauty queen of Sunshine Coast real estate, the median unit price dropped a further 3.5% last year and is 29% below the levels of five years ago. Repeat, 29% below the prices of 2009.
As I said in a column a few weeks ago, this is Australian real estate’s biggest lemon. Owning real estate there is apt to leave a sour taste in your mouth and bitterness in your bank balance.
The REIQ figures confirm my oft-expressed view that Cairns is back on a growth path, with its median house price up 6% in 12 months and likely to do better this year. Some Cairns suburbs delivered double-digit growth last year.
But central Queensland centres Gladstone and Mackay remain down. Gladstone median house price dropped 11.5% in the past year. But, for those who have owned real estate there long-term, pricing levels for both houses and units remain above those of five years ago, despite the recent declines.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The Queensland markets doing well (and those looking a bit pale): Terry Ryder

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Consumers should always treat the words of real estate agents and their representative bodies with caution.
Many of the grubbiest aspects of residential real estate – including dummy bidding at auctions, overquoting to get listings, underquoting to attract bigger auction crowds, and exaggerations or exclusions in advertising – have agency fingerprints all over them, although often<a href="/news/greedy-vendors-the-main-underquoting-cause-reinsw"> agents will try to blame vendors</a>.
As a buyer of real estate over the years, I’ve always been startled at the willingness of selling agents to talk down the price or prospects of a property to make an easier sale.
Here’s an example: “The property’s being sold because of a marriage breakup and they need a fast sale, so if you make a low offer it might be accepted”. Great for buyers, but the vendors would be horrified if they knew what their agents were saying about them and their properties.
Then there are the public statements. Usually these are designed to pump up the market or to influence decision-makers on policy such as stamp duty or interest rates.
It gets to the point sometimes where agency statements should come with a public health warning: Inhaling these words may be damaging to your financial health.
Sometimes, the pubic statements of the agency community have a strange twist, where their words appear counter-intuitive. But when agents deliberately talk down a market, it’s not because they’ve had an epiphany or been struck by lightning. There’s always an ulterior motive.
Here’s a current example. For some months the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) has been bagging the Perth property market.
The general theme is that the market’s in the toilet. Sales volumes are down, vacancies are up, there are too many sellers and not enough buyers, and price decline in inevitable.
In my view, they’re misrepresenting the situation. Perth’s market is not that bad and there are growth pockets across the city.
But there’s been a steady stream of REIWA media releases, all saying very negative things about Perth property. I’d imagine agents all over the city are quietly seething.
But it’s all part of a plan, indeed a concerted campaign. The objective? To condition sellers to accept they have to lower their asking prices.
You might think agents have a vested interest in higher prices. Their commission is a percentage of the selling price. The higher the price, the higher the commission.
But, no, the agency goal is a fast sale. The price doesn’t matter too much. If a property has an asking price of $500,000 and the agency has an offer of $480,000, many agents (not all) will work on the vendor to lower their expectations - rather than do what they’re paid to do, which is work on the buyer to raise their offer.
The difference in commission between $480,000 and $500,000 is not much, but it’s $20,000 of difference to the vendor.  Many agents (not all) will represent their own interests above those of their clients, the vendors.
Agents want vendors to have low price expectations, because it makes it easier to sell and earn commissions.
Hence the deliberate and persistent campaign by the REIWA to talk down the Perth market. As they see it, the Perth has had a couple of good years but is past its peak and now heading south. It’s going to be a tough market in which to operate as agents. They need to soften up vendors.
It’s a very dangerous tactic. The message they’re sending, whether they realise it or not, is that no one should be buying in Perth at the moment. According to the institute, the market’s falling and prices will decline. No one wants to buy and find that their property is worth less six months later.
But they’re pursuing their campaign nevertheless. In the latest episode, the REIWA declares that Perth is over-supplied with sales and rentals. This is not good news for owners, because nothing depresses values like a surplus.
This week’s media release says there’s been a 210% increase in rental properties available in the market since 2012. The vacancy rate is above 4%. Over-building has created oversupply, according to the REIWA. The city’s median house price dropped $5,000 last month and it’s now taking much longer to sell properties.
“With this large supply of homes for sale and rent, it’s likely we will see negligible price growth across 2015 and a fairly slow market for those selling property or looking for tenants,” says REIWA president David Airey in the media release.
What on earth are they playing at, being so negative? The answer comes in the next paragraph. “It is essential that sellers and owners listen closely to the advice of their selling agents and property managers to ensure the right marketing and pricing in what will prove to be a very competitive environment,” Airey said.
That’s right, folks, you need to drop your asking prices and rents.
As I’ve often said, real estate is run by narcissists - and the loudest noise in property is always the voice of vested interest.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
You can also read David Airey from REIWA response '<a href="/expert-insights/there-is-no-conspiracy-in-reiwa-market-commentary-david-airey">There is no conspiracy in REIWA market commentary</a>'.
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Caution - inhaling real estate agent's words may be dangerous to your financial health: Terry Ryder

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The anguish - in some cases, outrage - expressed in media about the so-called national property boom verges on farcical.
The tone and content of media coverage implies that Australia is having the mother of all property booms and that the situation has gone beyond reason.
There are frequent calls for regulatory action to prevent a disaster: stop foreign investors, eliminate negative gearing, clamp down on lending to local investors, discard any measures to help first-home buyers because they’ll just pump up prices and make a bad situation worse.
All this near-hysteria is predicated on the notion that we have a runaway national property boom, from which the only possible consequence is economic disaster.
Time to take a cold shower, a few aspirin and a wee lie down - then a reality check.
We don’t have a national property boom. Current conditions are mild in comparison to bull markets of the past. Even Sydney’s recent experience is tame compared to the genuine national property booms Australia has experienced.
The last time Australia had a nationwide bonanza was the period from 2001 to 2004. During that period prices went sharply north in every capital city, with three years of double-digit growth.
The average price growth in the capital cities in 2001 was 15.5%. In 2002 was 18%. The following year it was 19%.
Compare that to 2.1% in 2012, 9.8% in 2013 and 7.1% in 2014, according to Domain data.
Back in 2001, there were headlines every week depicting a national crisis. Prices had gone mad, no one could afford to buy any more and it was all headed for a crash. The word “bubble” appeared daily in headlines.
But prices grew considerably more the following year and even more the year after that.
When it finally ran out of steam in 2004, there was no crash. There was a 3% average rise in capital city prices that year and a 2% increase in 2005.
Hundreds, if not thousands, of headlines throughout the years from 2001 to 2004 predicted disaster as a result of the boom, with home values “plummeting”. It simply did not happen.
Many claimed the Great Australian Dream was dead because young adults could no longer afford to buy (yes, we’re reading the same headlines today, a dozen years later).
This was particularly so in Sydney, after price growth averaging 17% in 2001, 22% in 2002 and 16% in 2003. Yet in the next decade, half a million first-home buyers bought dwellings in NSW, the bulk of them in Sydney.
The headlines today are even more extreme, despite the reality that current market conditions are mild by comparison to the early noughties. There are claims that Sydney prices are unsustainable after the growth of 2013 and 2014 - and therefore the market must fall this year.
But there is no sign of any decline in market activity across the Sydney metropolitan area. Sales activity remains elevated and clearance rates strong. And price growth rates so far in this cycle are lukewarm relative to events 10-12 years ago.
Keep in mind, also, that Sydney is the only capital city to achieve double-digit price growth in the past two years. In 2003, every city had growth above 12%, including extraordinary rises in Brisbane (35%), Canberra (25%), Adelaide (24%), Perth (22%) and  Hobart (21%).
Last year, growth in those cities was Brisbane 5%, Canberra -1%, Adelaide 4%, Perth 2% and Hobart 3%, according to Domain data.
There’s no national boom in those figures. Economists keep telling us we have one, because they think we ought to have one, because interest rates are so low. And in the simplistic mindset of your (very) average economist, it’s all about interest rates. If rates are at record lows, there must be boom price growth everywhere. And if the figures don’t show that, the figures must be wrong.
God help the nation is anyone starts listening to these turkeys.
Many of our chattering economists need to take time out to study real estate and the elements that drive prices. In most cases, interest rates are of minor importance only.
We have had an extended period of record low interest rates but only one major market has boomed. There’s a message there that even an economist should understand.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Reality check  - we don’t have a national property boom: Terry Ryder

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There will always be property “professionals” willing to stand up and declare that the prime inner city suburbs are not only the best places to buy, but the only places to buy.
They will sit down only if someone asks them for some hard evidence to support their claims. Through decades of observing people with a vested interest or a bad case of real estate snobbery claiming so-called prime property has the best growth rates, I’ve never seen anyone back it up with research.
My own research contradicts the claims of the supremacy of “prime” property. The top end markets never produce the best long-term capital growth rates. In most of our capital cities, the lists of best suburbs for long-term growth are dominated by the affordable end of town.
For affordable, read downmarket. Across Australia right now, there are downmarket locations on strong growth paths. The number one market in the nation, according to Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index, is Logan City.
I wrote at length about this area last month. In discussing the general prospects for South East Queensland, I wrote: “There are myriad options but one that I particularly fancy is the unheralded (indeed often maligned) municipality of Logan City. The local council sees it as a strategic “city between two cities” because Logan bridges the gap between Brisbane City and Gold Coast City. It’s a municipality of 60 mostly affordable suburbs and collectively they are a nice fit for my core formula of affordability + infrastructure + jobs = price growth.”
Since then our research has found that Logan City has more suburbs with rising sales activity than any other municipality in Australia. Four Logan City suburbs make our national Top 30 list for suburbs with seriously forward momentum.
In Sydney, there are growth markets spread across the metropolitan area, some top end, some middle market and some bottom end. One that stands out as a market trending rapidly north is the Campbelltown LGA. Together with neighbouring Camden, it forms the single strongest precinct in metropolitan Sydney at the moment.
Other Sydney markets that continue to be strong include the local governments areas of Penrith, Blacktown and Liverpool.
Adelaide continues to fly under the radar of most investors, but the city is rising steadily – indeed, has been for the past 12-18 months, in terms of sales volumes. Towards the end of last year, we saw the first signs of that translating into price growth.
Within Adelaide, the number one area is the Salisbury municipality, which has more grown markets than any other precinct in the South Australian capital. The Salisbury LGA is about as downmarket as you can get, anywhere in capital city Australia.
The other standout markets with rising activity in Adelaide are all bottom-end precincts or middle market areas.
The generalised numbers for Perth depict a market that is stagnating or going into mild reverse. But beneath of the citywide statistics there are numerous sub-markets with growth trajectories. They are mostly bottom end affordable areas, like Wanneroo in the far north, Armadale in the south-east and Rockingham in the south-west. One or two are middle-market areas.
Last week I wrote that <a href="/news/vic/melbournes-middle-ring-leading-the-way-terry-ryder">middle Melbourne is leading the way</a> in residential property in the Victoria capital. But there are also several bottom end precincts with strong growth momentum. They include the municipalities of Epping in the north, Casey in the far south-east and Brimbank in the west.
That’s not to say there are no top end areas doing well in capital city Australia. In addition to the rise of affordable precincts a long way from the CBD, Sydney has a number of buoyant areas among the million-dollar-median suburbs. The numbers suggest that the millionaire suburbs surged in 2013, peaked in the December quarter of that year, subsided somewhat in the first half of 2014 but staged a marked sales revival late in 2014 and early in 2015.
Another standout is inner city Sydney. The Sydney City LGA includes a dozen highly-active suburbs, predominantly with sales of apartments.
But the good news for investors on a budget is that most of the growth markets in our cities are the cheaper ones.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Good news for investors on a budget - the best growth markets are the cheaper ones: Terry Ryder

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One of the enduring myths of real estate is that iconic tourism markets are great places to buy real estate.
The Australian, which consistently provides real estate coverage awash with misinformation, this week added to the pile of misconceptions by publishing a glowing eulogy to the property market in Noosa, which I regard as Australia real estate’s biggest lemon.
Noosa Heads has been a dreadful performer on capital growth and still has pricing levels well below those of 10 years ago.
At the same time, I’ve had some inquiries from people thinking of buying in another of Australia’s iconic duds, Byron Bay.
Noosa and Byron Bay have a problem in common. They both have economies based on tourism and retirement, which are fragile and volatile factors not helpful to real estate markets. Locations like these seldom deliver good price growth.
This is a problem for seaside communities along the east coast of Australia. When you add unit oversupply to the mix (a la the Gold Coast), you have a recipe for real estate under-achievement.
It’s only when tourism economies diversify through infrastructure spending and active encouragement of new industries, that their real estate markets start to perform. Current examples of tourism economies undergoing evolution are Cairns, Port Macquarie and the Sunshine Coast. These are all transition economies which are now producing strong property markets with prices rising strongly.
But isn’t Noosa on the Sunshine Coast, I hear you ask. It is, but it’s a long way from the action that is turning things around for this region.
The game-changing activity for the Sunshine Coast – such as the $2 billion hospital and all the medical-related projects springing up around it - is all happening in the central and southern portions of the region. Noosa languishes on the far northern fringe of the Sunshine Coast and essentially remains what it has always been - a stuttering struggling tourism and retirement enclave, with an under-performing real estate market.
The long-term capital growth rate for Noosa Heads apartments is -2.8%. That means that, over the past decade, the median unit price has dropped by an average of 2.8% per year. And that means pricing levels today are well below those of 2005. I can’t find a significant real estate market anywhere in Australia with a worse record.
For Noosa Heads houses, the long-term growth average is -0.2% per year. That’s not as bad as units, but it does mean that pricing levels are still lower than they were 10 years ago.
None of that was mentioned in the article in The Australian, which claimed that Noosa Heads prices are “set to go north”. Why did they think so? Because a line-up of Noosa real estate agents said so. The article read like a press release commissioned by the agents with a strong vested interest. This is what passes for journalism in the country’s national newspaper.
Noosa Heads and Byron Bay have another problem in common, other than their brittle tourism economies: they both have beaches that tend to vanish on a regular basis. Byron’s image has been damaged in recent years by ongoing coastal erosion events which have threatened the existence of seaside homes and forced governments into controversial and expensive solutions.
In the Byron Bay market at the moment, it takes on average seven months to sell a house and 10 months to sell an apartment – and then only if you’re willing to discount your asking price 9-10%.
The long-term capital growth average for Byron Bay houses is a tad above 2% per year. In real terms, property is worth less than it was 10 years ago.
Over the past decade, Byron Bay has had several periods of major price decline. Prices dropped 10% in 2009 and around 15% in 2012.  Between 2008 and 2013 there was only a brief period when prices were (marginally) above the red line.
Somehow, locations like Byron and Noosa continue to command a special place in the minds of people who see them as wonderful places to invest. Trust me, they’re not.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Good tourism spots do not make great investments: Terry Ryder

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Middle Melbourne is leading the way as the Victorian capital continues to produce growth property markets right across the metropolitan area.
Melbourne isn’t getting the same headlines as Sydney, nor has not produced the same level of price growth, but it continues to present as a solid property market, with few signs of decline.
Our research for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index shows there is momentum rippling through markets in all sectors.
There are strong precincts north, south, east and west of the CBD. Indeed, under the Index ranking system Melbourne has more notable markets than Sydney, with 12 Rising Fast, 118 Rising Steadily and 88 Consistency markets.
The market segment that stands out the most is “middle Melbourne”. There are several middle-ring precincts with mid-range prices (a tier below the million dollar median suburbs of the inner south-east) that are clear market leaders.
Melbourne’s up-cycle began in 2013 with the inner-city and the prestige suburbs of the inner south-east. But in 2014 the momentum spread increasingly to the middle-ring and outer-ring suburbs.
The middle market that deserves the title as leading growth area in Melbourne is the Whitehorse LGA, east of the Melbourne CBD. It has three Rising Fast suburbs and 10 rated as Rising Steadily. They include Nunawading (median price $690,000), Burwood East ($780,000) and Blackburn South ($780,000).
The Darebin municipality in the mid north is another rising middle-market precinct, with two Rising Fast suburbs – Preston ($660,000) and Reservoir ($520,000) – and two Rising Steadily suburbs.
Also prominent is Monash City with one Rising Fast suburb and seven Rising Steadily ones. Mount Waverley ($930,000) in the Monash LGA is one of the most upwardly-mobile suburbs in the nation, with sales per quarter rising from 134 to 177 to 191 to 246 throughout 2014.
The Kingston LGA, which includes middle market suburbs such as Cheltenham ($690,000) and Parkdale ($760,000), continues to emerge. It has one Rising Fast suburb, five Rising Steadily markets and four Consistency markets.
Cheaper areas further from the CBD are also thriving in the current cycle. The Casey LGA in the south-east has eight growth markets, including Endeavour Hills ($430,000) and Hampton Park ($350,000). Nearby, the Greater Dandenong and Frankston LGAs also have growth markets.
Whittlesea in the north is a strongly emerging precinct: it has one Rising Fast suburb and five Rising Steadily markets. Sales in Mill Park have been 70, 98, 90 and 140 in the past four quarters. The key feature in this precinct is affordability, good transport links and major jobs nodes.
The Brimbank LGA in the western suburbs continues to stand out. It has six Rising Steadily suburbs and eight Consistency markets. Again, it’s the power combination of affordability, infrastructure and jobs nodes that is driving this precinct.
Momentum in the Melbourne area spreads down to the Mornington Peninsula in the far south, where there is one Rising Fast market, three Rising Steadily suburbs and nine Consistency markets.
Upmarket areas such as the Boroondara LGA and the Glen Eira LGA feature, but most of the standout precincts are middle-market and bottom-end suburbs. This is where we expect to see the most price growth in 2015.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
 
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Terry Ryder

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