Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

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Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Terry Ryder

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I imagine there will always be people who see the CBD as the beacon for all things real estate. They are the diehards who measure property in terms of its proximity to the tall office buildings.
It’s a cherished belief founded in myth and fantasy.
I’m frequently assaulted by emails from people who think you’re nowhere if you’re not within 10 kilometres of a CBD. They’re people who haven’t made the transition to the new century. Nor have they conducted any meaningful research.
There was a time when the CBDs were the centre of the universe because most of the jobs were there, a lot of the industry was there and most of the shops were there. It was important to live close to this hub of all things important.
Historically, industrial uses occupied riverside property in or near the city centre. Over time that has changed. These days, businesses with industrial premises and warehousing needs don’t want to be in the central city. They want to be close to major transport routes and on less expensive land, which means industrial businesses and their jobs have migrated progressively to the outer suburbs.
Also historically, the major shopping precincts were central city. That was before the creation of regional shopping centres. These days, no one goes into the CBD to do their shopping. The only people who shop in the city centre are those who work or live there.
That leaves office property as the cornerstone of CBD relevance. But that is being eroded gradually as well. Office precincts have sprouted in the middle and outer ring suburbs, providing cheaper office space for businesses that don’t really need to be in the city centre.
In modern Australia, CBDs are no longer the hubs of all things important. Increasingly, the economic centre of our major cities is shifting away the CBDs. Increasingly, the big employment nodes are a long way from the city centre.
Being close to the CBD is no longer a proper benchmark for the worth of a piece of real estate. Today, these are many factors more important than the CBD in terms of what you need to be near to have intrinsic value.
They include infrastructure, such as transport links, medical services and education facilities. They also include jobs nodes.
Major jobs nodes which are usually a lot way from the central city include sea ports, airports, industrial estates, office parks, logistics centres, heavy industry, regional shopping centres, bulky goods retail precincts, and many others.
I read a report this week which confirms that Sydney’s “economic centre of gravity” is now some distance from the CBD. According to analysis by the Committee for Sydney and consultancy PwC, the economic centre of gravity – the point around which all economic output is evenly balanced – is at Concord, 9 kilometres west of the CBD.
The report found that the CBD precinct contributes about 20% of the Sydney economy. This means the CBD is important. It also means that 80% of the Sydney economy is elsewhere.
Key suburban commercial centres like North Sydney, Macquarie Park, Parramatta, Homebush, Mascot and Chatswood collectively also contribute around 20% of the Sydney economy. There’s another 60% running around out there in the suburbs of the Sydney metropolitan area.
The report suggested the economic centre of gravity has been moving north-west from the CBD for more than a decade, thanks to the commercial hubs that have developed at Macquarie Park, Sydney Olympic Park, Parramatta and other suburban locations.
It also suggested that Melbourne's economic centre of gravity is now 6.7 kilometres south-east of the city’s CBD.
The report suggests that one of the outcomes of the rising influence of alternative business centres in Sydney is the need for better transport connections between them.
This tends to support the Hotspotting theory that infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, is the greatest generator of growth in property markets.
Commercial centres and jobs nodes have moved further and further from the traditional CBDs. The locations that have those precincts, as well as good transport links, strong infrastructure and affordable real estate, are the places that attract the lion’s share of demand from real estate buyers.
That mass demand is driving house prices. As I wrote in this column on Tuesday, research from DSRdata.com.au shows that growth in the outer-ring suburbs of Sydney has exceeded that in the inner-ring over the past three years.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

There's more to a great investment than proximity to the CBD: Terry Ryder

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Many investors fret about not being able to afford to buy in locations they regard as “prime”. Their definition of prime is often “expensive” and/or “inner-city”. And that’s their first mistake.
They think this is where the best growth lies. They think this because the supremacy of prime property is most of real estate’s most enduring myths, promoted by the self-interested and the poorly-informed.
But investors on a budget can relax. The research keeps showing that the best capital growth rates over time are found, consistently, in cheaper areas.
I wrote on Property Observer on 16 March: “My own research contradicts the claims of the supremacy of “prime” property. The Top End markets never produce the best long-term capital growth rates. In most of our capital cities, the lists of best suburbs for long-term growth are dominated by the affordable end of town.”
I commented that Logan City, a downmarket sector in the Brisbane metropolitan area, was our pick as the number one market for investors right now.
My research, confirming that affordable areas with identifiable growth drivers consistently provide the best capital growth rates, has been reinforced by information provided to me by researcher Jeremy Sheppard, who runs the DSRdata.com.au website.
Sheppard this week completed some research on the precincts of the Sydney metropolitan area, comparing the degree of capital growth in the inner, middle and outer ring areas over the past three years – the period in which the Sydney market has been playing catch-up after a lengthy period of under-performance.
Over the three years up to the March 2015 Quarter, inner ring suburbs (suburbs within 16 kilometres of the CBD) have grown 26.7%, with a median price now around $1,062,400.
The middle ring suburbs (16-32 kilometres from the CBD) have increased 29.1% to $695,200. The biggest increase, narrowly, has been in the outer ring suburbs (32-48 kilometres from the CBD), up 29.7% to $494,000.
Sheppard’s chart of growth, quarter by quarter, since early 2012 shows that the outer ring suburbs have the least volatility, with consistent growth quarter by quarter. The middle ring and inner ring areas have both had periods when the median price has dropped, albeit briefly, in the past three years.
These results confirm Hotspotting research which, over many years, has found that the best growth rates occur in the more affordable areas in all our major cities.
When examined over a longer time period than three years, the differences in the growth rates tend to be larger. Top end suburbs are always more volatile markets than the bottom end areas.
People buy where they can afford and the great mass of buyer demand goes to affordable areas, especially those that offer good transport links, good infrastructure generally and proximity to jobs nodes (many big employment precincts are a long way from the CBDs of our major cities).
So when people with $800,000 or $1 million to spend ask me which of a list of upmarket suburbs they should buy in, my answer is usually along these lines: None of the above. If you have the capacity to invest that much, don’t pump it all into one property – buy two or three properties in affordable locations with growth prospects.
The ideal would be three properties in affordable growth areas in three different states.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The first mistake many investors make: Terry Ryder

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Do the economists and journalists who attribute Sydney’s busy market to low interest rates ever wonder why other cities aren’t pumping?
Are record low interest rates a secret known only to Sydney residents?
It brings to mind a talk I witnessed two to three years ago by Craig James from CommSec. He commented that economists with skinny knowledge used China as their fallback explanation of everything, when all else failed. Exports are rising? It’s China. The dollar’s high? China. WA’s booming? China. Real estate is strong? China.
He was only half joking.
And currently it’s no joke that economists who understand nothing about residential real estate will use interest rates as their catch-all rationale for elevated activity in Sydney’s market.
The Australian this week was the latest media outlet to fall into the trap with its headline “Rate cut driving home price surge: analysts”.
The article was written by a journalist whose knowledge of real estate markets could be written on the back of a postage stamp in crayon. The headline writer knew even less. And the analysts quoted in the article knew the least of all.
It’s just too easy, almost flippant, to dismiss Sydney’s heightened activity as a factor of low interest rates.
As an explanation, it’s plain wrong.
We’ve had low, low interest rates for a long time now. Yet in the past 12 months, dwelling values have fallen (marginally) in three of our capital cities. Three others have grown less than 3% in annual terms. Another has managed a 5% rise in values. Only Sydney is writing boom numbers.
Why are record low interest rates not stimulating markets around the nation? Why do we not have conditions replicating those from 2001 to 2003, when every capital city delivered double-digit growth for at least two consecutive years?
For the benefit of the uneducated, including the economists, let me translate. It’s nothing to do with interest rates.
A clue to the rise of Sydney markets was contained in the events of last weekend. No, not the auction results. I refer to the election results.
The NSW government last weekend became the first incumbent in years to survive an election with a clear majority. Every other state or federal government has been mercilessly dumped, including Queensland Premier Campbell Newman who managed to squander the greatest landslide majority in the history of politics, or (in the case of the South Australian government) ended up with a hung parliament.
The NSW government was returned because it was judged to be a competent administrator of the state’s finances and fortunes.
The NSW economy – and the Sydney property market – started to turn around when the current Liberal administration won office four years ago.
It defeated the ALP government which, after 16 years in power had become arrogant, complacent, corrupt and downright incompetent. It was undoubtedly the worst government I’ve seen anywhere. Under that appalling regime with its revolving door premiership, nothing was being generated in NSW other than negative headlines. No infrastructure was being built and the economy had stagnated.
Four years ago Adelaide had more infrastructure under development than did Sydney.
With the change in government in 2011, NSW came off life support. It began to recover and then to thrive. Today it has the number one economy in the nation, according to CommSec’s State of the States report. Sydney is alive with massive infrastructure projects, with more in the planning pipeline.
Nothing drives residential property markets like infrastructure spending. The North-West Rail Link, the South-West Rail Link, the NorthConnex Motorway, the M4 upgrade, various major hospital expansions - plus early moves for the Badgerys Creek airport, the WestConnex motorway, the M9 Orbital, the light rail project and others – are front and centre in the revitalisation of Sydney’s economy and property markets.
Many tens of billions of dollars in investment is percolating through the Sydney economy, creating business activity and jobs at a rate not seen in NSW for a decade.
Before all this happened, Sydney was the great under-achiever of Australian real estate. Even with the growth of the past two years, Sydney still has one of the lowest 10-year growth averages among the state and territory capital cities.
Essentially, Sydney has been playing catch-up with long-term growth leaders like Perth, Darwin and Melbourne – and that’s been a significant catalyst to Sydney’s growth.
But, if you heed the nation’s chattering economists, none of that matters. It’s all about interest rates.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Sydney's price boom isn't about interest rates: Terry Ryder

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There are few opportunities these days to write anything bullish about the Canberra property market.
All the data suggests prices are stagnating or falling and rents are down significantly, with a 5% annual decline for the median house rent and a 7% fall for apartments.
While Sydney three hours down the road is pumped up by a strong state economy, a big infrastructure spend and the confidence created by competent governance, Canberra is mired in negativity and uncertainty thanks for cuts to the public service and an oversupply of apartments.
But, as is so often the case, there are different stories to be found if you dig beneath the generalised figures about a city.
The Gungahlin precinct is one sector of the Canberra market showing some life. It will benefit in future from the new light rail system, as well as the relocation of 650 public service jobs to that part of Canberra.
The territory's Chief Minister Andrew Barr has confirmed that 400 public servants from ACT Shared Services will vacate Woden this year and head north to Gungahlin.
The move will leave a lot of empty spaces in the Callam Offices complex at Woden, but the biggest impact is likely to be the positive one for Gungahlin – particularly as another 250 public servants will pulled from other areas and relocated to Gungahlin as well. 
The move, taken in conjunction with other unhelpful events, will hurt the economy of Woden and possibly property markets in surrounding areas, which are struggling already.
<a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/2015s-perfect-storm-for-woden-will-be-the-public-service-exodus-20150222-13gvdr" target="_blank">The Canberra Times reported</a>: Woden Valley Community Council chairman Martin Miller said the town centre was "probably not prepared" for the departure of so many regular workers.  "The federal public service is decreasing its presence as well – the Department of Human Services was moved to Tuggeranong years ago and the Department of Veterans Affairs is due to move as well," Miller said. "It will have an impact – it's sort of like the perfect storm."
Property markets in suburbs surrounding the Woden Town Centre have been weak performers in recent years. Suburbs like Phillip, Lyons, Hughes and Mawson have median house prices lower than they were three years ago.
They, along with others like Garran, Chifley and Pearce, all have long-term capital growth rates in the 3-4% range, which is poor by national standards.
Where Woden loses, Gungahlin gains. Generally, this precinct of Canberra looks to have better prospects than most in the national capital, helped by the Capital Metro light rail system, which will link Gungahlin to the city centre.
The light rail system is currently in the procurement stages. The ACT government has named four private business consortiums, which will be considered for the construction of the $800 million light rail line.
The targeted travel time from Gungahlin to the city via Northbourne Avenue, the Federal Highway and Flemington Road is 25 minutes. Experience shows that new transport infrastructure can be a game-changer for residential property markets.
The Gungahlin precinct is currently one of the few sections of the Canberra market showing some life. While Canberra prices generally have not grown in the past 12 months, some suburbs in the Gungahlin area have delivered solid increases in median house prices.
They include Palmerston (up 7%), Amaroo (up 5%) and Harrison (up 6%).
Unlike the Woden precinct, suburbs around Gungahlin mostly have values higher than three years ago, though not a lot higher. Amaroo, for example, has grown an average of 4% per year over the past three years.
This precinct also shows up in The Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting. It has a couple of suburbs listed as Rising Steadily – Palmerston and Nicholls – and others classified as Consistency markets, including Ngunnawal, Franklin and Amaroo.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Not all doom and gloom for Canberra: Terry Ryder

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The Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ), unlike its sermonising counterpart in Western Australia, tends not to tell the public what to think about local markets. It just publishes the figures and leaves it to consumers to make their own assessments.
Its latest quarterly Market Monitor is revealing about places that are doing well and those looking a bit pale.
The research figures confirm that Brisbane is rising and that some of the municipalities that make up the Greater Brisbane Area did particularly well in the most latest quarter.
The figures show that regional Queensland has struggled generally over the past five years, but many cities sent out strong recovery signals last year.
That, however, excludes the regional cities saturated by developer excess, like Gladstone and Mackay. And it also excludes the Gold Coast apartment market, which still has numbers that would make a prudent investor cautious.
The REIQ figures suggest Brisbane City (the LGA, not the metro area) house prices rose an average 8.3% last year.
Surrounding municipalities, like Logan City, Ipswich City and Redland City, all rose, but in the 3-4% growth range. But in the latest quarter there were more significant increases, particularly in Ipswich and Logan, suggesting that recent rises in sales activity are starting to translate into meaningful price growth.
On the other hand, unit markets are lukewarm, especially those in the inner-city, subdued by high vacancies. Unit markets in more distant parts of the Brisbane metro area are showing better growth in median prices, notably in the Ipswich, Moreton Bay and Redland LGAs.
The Sunshine Coast has been the best of the regional cities, with a 6.7% annual rise in median house prices. Buderim, consistently the most popular suburb in the region, rose 11% and is one of relatively few Queensland locations which have done well over the past five years (up 25%).
Toowoomba, a regional city we have advocated for several years, is up 22% in five years, including 6.3% last year. Some suburbs rose in double digits.
By contrast, the neighbouring Western Downs region (which includes towns where developers over-built in their efforts to exploit the coal seam gas boom), recorded a 14% decline in its median house price last year. Several towns have very high vacancies, with resources workers accommodated in temporary villages rather than rental houses in the towns.
The Gold Coast numbers are interesting because they contrast the housing markets (which are doing well) with the highrise apartment locations (which continue to stutter).
The Gold Coast City median house price has recorded an annual rise of 6.5%, with a major jump in the most recent quarter. This corresponds with the increase in sales volumes evident over the past 18 months. Most of the markets with the best annual rises are inland housing markets in the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor, including Helensvale, Ormeau and Upper Coomera (which recorded a 7.4% annual rise in its median price).
But apartment markets continue to struggle. The median unit price for Gold Coast City is still 3.4% lower than it was five years ago. The median price for Surfers Paradise dropped 5.6% last year and remains almost 10% lower than five years ago. Southport’s median is 11.2% lower and Broadbeach remains down 7.5%.
This is what oversupply does to property prices. Keep those numbers in mind when you consider the thousands of apartments to be built in the new mega highrise – and all the marketing hype that will come with it, although most of it will be directed at China.
In similar vein, Noosa’s housing market looks to be showing some growth again but its apartment market is deathly pale. Across the Noosa LGA, the median apartment price remains 8.2% lower than it was five years ago.
At dear old Noosa Heads, that over-rated and ageing beauty queen of Sunshine Coast real estate, the median unit price dropped a further 3.5% last year and is 29% below the levels of five years ago. Repeat, 29% below the prices of 2009.
As I said in a column a few weeks ago, this is Australian real estate’s biggest lemon. Owning real estate there is apt to leave a sour taste in your mouth and bitterness in your bank balance.
The REIQ figures confirm my oft-expressed view that Cairns is back on a growth path, with its median house price up 6% in 12 months and likely to do better this year. Some Cairns suburbs delivered double-digit growth last year.
But central Queensland centres Gladstone and Mackay remain down. Gladstone median house price dropped 11.5% in the past year. But, for those who have owned real estate there long-term, pricing levels for both houses and units remain above those of five years ago, despite the recent declines.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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The Queensland markets doing well (and those looking a bit pale): Terry Ryder

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Consumers should always treat the words of real estate agents and their representative bodies with caution.
Many of the grubbiest aspects of residential real estate – including dummy bidding at auctions, overquoting to get listings, underquoting to attract bigger auction crowds, and exaggerations or exclusions in advertising – have agency fingerprints all over them, although often<a href="/news/greedy-vendors-the-main-underquoting-cause-reinsw"> agents will try to blame vendors</a>.
As a buyer of real estate over the years, I’ve always been startled at the willingness of selling agents to talk down the price or prospects of a property to make an easier sale.
Here’s an example: “The property’s being sold because of a marriage breakup and they need a fast sale, so if you make a low offer it might be accepted”. Great for buyers, but the vendors would be horrified if they knew what their agents were saying about them and their properties.
Then there are the public statements. Usually these are designed to pump up the market or to influence decision-makers on policy such as stamp duty or interest rates.
It gets to the point sometimes where agency statements should come with a public health warning: Inhaling these words may be damaging to your financial health.
Sometimes, the pubic statements of the agency community have a strange twist, where their words appear counter-intuitive. But when agents deliberately talk down a market, it’s not because they’ve had an epiphany or been struck by lightning. There’s always an ulterior motive.
Here’s a current example. For some months the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) has been bagging the Perth property market.
The general theme is that the market’s in the toilet. Sales volumes are down, vacancies are up, there are too many sellers and not enough buyers, and price decline in inevitable.
In my view, they’re misrepresenting the situation. Perth’s market is not that bad and there are growth pockets across the city.
But there’s been a steady stream of REIWA media releases, all saying very negative things about Perth property. I’d imagine agents all over the city are quietly seething.
But it’s all part of a plan, indeed a concerted campaign. The objective? To condition sellers to accept they have to lower their asking prices.
You might think agents have a vested interest in higher prices. Their commission is a percentage of the selling price. The higher the price, the higher the commission.
But, no, the agency goal is a fast sale. The price doesn’t matter too much. If a property has an asking price of $500,000 and the agency has an offer of $480,000, many agents (not all) will work on the vendor to lower their expectations - rather than do what they’re paid to do, which is work on the buyer to raise their offer.
The difference in commission between $480,000 and $500,000 is not much, but it’s $20,000 of difference to the vendor.  Many agents (not all) will represent their own interests above those of their clients, the vendors.
Agents want vendors to have low price expectations, because it makes it easier to sell and earn commissions.
Hence the deliberate and persistent campaign by the REIWA to talk down the Perth market. As they see it, the Perth has had a couple of good years but is past its peak and now heading south. It’s going to be a tough market in which to operate as agents. They need to soften up vendors.
It’s a very dangerous tactic. The message they’re sending, whether they realise it or not, is that no one should be buying in Perth at the moment. According to the institute, the market’s falling and prices will decline. No one wants to buy and find that their property is worth less six months later.
But they’re pursuing their campaign nevertheless. In the latest episode, the REIWA declares that Perth is over-supplied with sales and rentals. This is not good news for owners, because nothing depresses values like a surplus.
This week’s media release says there’s been a 210% increase in rental properties available in the market since 2012. The vacancy rate is above 4%. Over-building has created oversupply, according to the REIWA. The city’s median house price dropped $5,000 last month and it’s now taking much longer to sell properties.
“With this large supply of homes for sale and rent, it’s likely we will see negligible price growth across 2015 and a fairly slow market for those selling property or looking for tenants,” says REIWA president David Airey in the media release.
What on earth are they playing at, being so negative? The answer comes in the next paragraph. “It is essential that sellers and owners listen closely to the advice of their selling agents and property managers to ensure the right marketing and pricing in what will prove to be a very competitive environment,” Airey said.
That’s right, folks, you need to drop your asking prices and rents.
As I’ve often said, real estate is run by narcissists - and the loudest noise in property is always the voice of vested interest.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
You can also read David Airey from REIWA response '<a href="/expert-insights/there-is-no-conspiracy-in-reiwa-market-commentary-david-airey">There is no conspiracy in REIWA market commentary</a>'.
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Caution - inhaling real estate agent's words may be dangerous to your financial health: Terry Ryder

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The anguish - in some cases, outrage - expressed in media about the so-called national property boom verges on farcical.
The tone and content of media coverage implies that Australia is having the mother of all property booms and that the situation has gone beyond reason.
There are frequent calls for regulatory action to prevent a disaster: stop foreign investors, eliminate negative gearing, clamp down on lending to local investors, discard any measures to help first-home buyers because they’ll just pump up prices and make a bad situation worse.
All this near-hysteria is predicated on the notion that we have a runaway national property boom, from which the only possible consequence is economic disaster.
Time to take a cold shower, a few aspirin and a wee lie down - then a reality check.
We don’t have a national property boom. Current conditions are mild in comparison to bull markets of the past. Even Sydney’s recent experience is tame compared to the genuine national property booms Australia has experienced.
The last time Australia had a nationwide bonanza was the period from 2001 to 2004. During that period prices went sharply north in every capital city, with three years of double-digit growth.
The average price growth in the capital cities in 2001 was 15.5%. In 2002 was 18%. The following year it was 19%.
Compare that to 2.1% in 2012, 9.8% in 2013 and 7.1% in 2014, according to Domain data.
Back in 2001, there were headlines every week depicting a national crisis. Prices had gone mad, no one could afford to buy any more and it was all headed for a crash. The word “bubble” appeared daily in headlines.
But prices grew considerably more the following year and even more the year after that.
When it finally ran out of steam in 2004, there was no crash. There was a 3% average rise in capital city prices that year and a 2% increase in 2005.
Hundreds, if not thousands, of headlines throughout the years from 2001 to 2004 predicted disaster as a result of the boom, with home values “plummeting”. It simply did not happen.
Many claimed the Great Australian Dream was dead because young adults could no longer afford to buy (yes, we’re reading the same headlines today, a dozen years later).
This was particularly so in Sydney, after price growth averaging 17% in 2001, 22% in 2002 and 16% in 2003. Yet in the next decade, half a million first-home buyers bought dwellings in NSW, the bulk of them in Sydney.
The headlines today are even more extreme, despite the reality that current market conditions are mild by comparison to the early noughties. There are claims that Sydney prices are unsustainable after the growth of 2013 and 2014 - and therefore the market must fall this year.
But there is no sign of any decline in market activity across the Sydney metropolitan area. Sales activity remains elevated and clearance rates strong. And price growth rates so far in this cycle are lukewarm relative to events 10-12 years ago.
Keep in mind, also, that Sydney is the only capital city to achieve double-digit price growth in the past two years. In 2003, every city had growth above 12%, including extraordinary rises in Brisbane (35%), Canberra (25%), Adelaide (24%), Perth (22%) and  Hobart (21%).
Last year, growth in those cities was Brisbane 5%, Canberra -1%, Adelaide 4%, Perth 2% and Hobart 3%, according to Domain data.
There’s no national boom in those figures. Economists keep telling us we have one, because they think we ought to have one, because interest rates are so low. And in the simplistic mindset of your (very) average economist, it’s all about interest rates. If rates are at record lows, there must be boom price growth everywhere. And if the figures don’t show that, the figures must be wrong.
God help the nation is anyone starts listening to these turkeys.
Many of our chattering economists need to take time out to study real estate and the elements that drive prices. In most cases, interest rates are of minor importance only.
We have had an extended period of record low interest rates but only one major market has boomed. There’s a message there that even an economist should understand.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Reality check  - we don’t have a national property boom: Terry Ryder

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There will always be property “professionals” willing to stand up and declare that the prime inner city suburbs are not only the best places to buy, but the only places to buy.
They will sit down only if someone asks them for some hard evidence to support their claims. Through decades of observing people with a vested interest or a bad case of real estate snobbery claiming so-called prime property has the best growth rates, I’ve never seen anyone back it up with research.
My own research contradicts the claims of the supremacy of “prime” property. The top end markets never produce the best long-term capital growth rates. In most of our capital cities, the lists of best suburbs for long-term growth are dominated by the affordable end of town.
For affordable, read downmarket. Across Australia right now, there are downmarket locations on strong growth paths. The number one market in the nation, according to Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index, is Logan City.
I wrote at length about this area last month. In discussing the general prospects for South East Queensland, I wrote: “There are myriad options but one that I particularly fancy is the unheralded (indeed often maligned) municipality of Logan City. The local council sees it as a strategic “city between two cities” because Logan bridges the gap between Brisbane City and Gold Coast City. It’s a municipality of 60 mostly affordable suburbs and collectively they are a nice fit for my core formula of affordability + infrastructure + jobs = price growth.”
Since then our research has found that Logan City has more suburbs with rising sales activity than any other municipality in Australia. Four Logan City suburbs make our national Top 30 list for suburbs with seriously forward momentum.
In Sydney, there are growth markets spread across the metropolitan area, some top end, some middle market and some bottom end. One that stands out as a market trending rapidly north is the Campbelltown LGA. Together with neighbouring Camden, it forms the single strongest precinct in metropolitan Sydney at the moment.
Other Sydney markets that continue to be strong include the local governments areas of Penrith, Blacktown and Liverpool.
Adelaide continues to fly under the radar of most investors, but the city is rising steadily – indeed, has been for the past 12-18 months, in terms of sales volumes. Towards the end of last year, we saw the first signs of that translating into price growth.
Within Adelaide, the number one area is the Salisbury municipality, which has more grown markets than any other precinct in the South Australian capital. The Salisbury LGA is about as downmarket as you can get, anywhere in capital city Australia.
The other standout markets with rising activity in Adelaide are all bottom-end precincts or middle market areas.
The generalised numbers for Perth depict a market that is stagnating or going into mild reverse. But beneath of the citywide statistics there are numerous sub-markets with growth trajectories. They are mostly bottom end affordable areas, like Wanneroo in the far north, Armadale in the south-east and Rockingham in the south-west. One or two are middle-market areas.
Last week I wrote that <a href="/news/vic/melbournes-middle-ring-leading-the-way-terry-ryder">middle Melbourne is leading the way</a> in residential property in the Victoria capital. But there are also several bottom end precincts with strong growth momentum. They include the municipalities of Epping in the north, Casey in the far south-east and Brimbank in the west.
That’s not to say there are no top end areas doing well in capital city Australia. In addition to the rise of affordable precincts a long way from the CBD, Sydney has a number of buoyant areas among the million-dollar-median suburbs. The numbers suggest that the millionaire suburbs surged in 2013, peaked in the December quarter of that year, subsided somewhat in the first half of 2014 but staged a marked sales revival late in 2014 and early in 2015.
Another standout is inner city Sydney. The Sydney City LGA includes a dozen highly-active suburbs, predominantly with sales of apartments.
But the good news for investors on a budget is that most of the growth markets in our cities are the cheaper ones.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Good news for investors on a budget - the best growth markets are the cheaper ones: Terry Ryder

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One of the enduring myths of real estate is that iconic tourism markets are great places to buy real estate.
The Australian, which consistently provides real estate coverage awash with misinformation, this week added to the pile of misconceptions by publishing a glowing eulogy to the property market in Noosa, which I regard as Australia real estate’s biggest lemon.
Noosa Heads has been a dreadful performer on capital growth and still has pricing levels well below those of 10 years ago.
At the same time, I’ve had some inquiries from people thinking of buying in another of Australia’s iconic duds, Byron Bay.
Noosa and Byron Bay have a problem in common. They both have economies based on tourism and retirement, which are fragile and volatile factors not helpful to real estate markets. Locations like these seldom deliver good price growth.
This is a problem for seaside communities along the east coast of Australia. When you add unit oversupply to the mix (a la the Gold Coast), you have a recipe for real estate under-achievement.
It’s only when tourism economies diversify through infrastructure spending and active encouragement of new industries, that their real estate markets start to perform. Current examples of tourism economies undergoing evolution are Cairns, Port Macquarie and the Sunshine Coast. These are all transition economies which are now producing strong property markets with prices rising strongly.
But isn’t Noosa on the Sunshine Coast, I hear you ask. It is, but it’s a long way from the action that is turning things around for this region.
The game-changing activity for the Sunshine Coast – such as the $2 billion hospital and all the medical-related projects springing up around it - is all happening in the central and southern portions of the region. Noosa languishes on the far northern fringe of the Sunshine Coast and essentially remains what it has always been - a stuttering struggling tourism and retirement enclave, with an under-performing real estate market.
The long-term capital growth rate for Noosa Heads apartments is -2.8%. That means that, over the past decade, the median unit price has dropped by an average of 2.8% per year. And that means pricing levels today are well below those of 2005. I can’t find a significant real estate market anywhere in Australia with a worse record.
For Noosa Heads houses, the long-term growth average is -0.2% per year. That’s not as bad as units, but it does mean that pricing levels are still lower than they were 10 years ago.
None of that was mentioned in the article in The Australian, which claimed that Noosa Heads prices are “set to go north”. Why did they think so? Because a line-up of Noosa real estate agents said so. The article read like a press release commissioned by the agents with a strong vested interest. This is what passes for journalism in the country’s national newspaper.
Noosa Heads and Byron Bay have another problem in common, other than their brittle tourism economies: they both have beaches that tend to vanish on a regular basis. Byron’s image has been damaged in recent years by ongoing coastal erosion events which have threatened the existence of seaside homes and forced governments into controversial and expensive solutions.
In the Byron Bay market at the moment, it takes on average seven months to sell a house and 10 months to sell an apartment – and then only if you’re willing to discount your asking price 9-10%.
The long-term capital growth average for Byron Bay houses is a tad above 2% per year. In real terms, property is worth less than it was 10 years ago.
Over the past decade, Byron Bay has had several periods of major price decline. Prices dropped 10% in 2009 and around 15% in 2012.  Between 2008 and 2013 there was only a brief period when prices were (marginally) above the red line.
Somehow, locations like Byron and Noosa continue to command a special place in the minds of people who see them as wonderful places to invest. Trust me, they’re not.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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Good tourism spots do not make great investments: Terry Ryder

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Middle Melbourne is leading the way as the Victorian capital continues to produce growth property markets right across the metropolitan area.
Melbourne isn’t getting the same headlines as Sydney, nor has not produced the same level of price growth, but it continues to present as a solid property market, with few signs of decline.
Our research for the latest edition of The Price Predictor Index shows there is momentum rippling through markets in all sectors.
There are strong precincts north, south, east and west of the CBD. Indeed, under the Index ranking system Melbourne has more notable markets than Sydney, with 12 Rising Fast, 118 Rising Steadily and 88 Consistency markets.
The market segment that stands out the most is “middle Melbourne”. There are several middle-ring precincts with mid-range prices (a tier below the million dollar median suburbs of the inner south-east) that are clear market leaders.
Melbourne’s up-cycle began in 2013 with the inner-city and the prestige suburbs of the inner south-east. But in 2014 the momentum spread increasingly to the middle-ring and outer-ring suburbs.
The middle market that deserves the title as leading growth area in Melbourne is the Whitehorse LGA, east of the Melbourne CBD. It has three Rising Fast suburbs and 10 rated as Rising Steadily. They include Nunawading (median price $690,000), Burwood East ($780,000) and Blackburn South ($780,000).
The Darebin municipality in the mid north is another rising middle-market precinct, with two Rising Fast suburbs – Preston ($660,000) and Reservoir ($520,000) – and two Rising Steadily suburbs.
Also prominent is Monash City with one Rising Fast suburb and seven Rising Steadily ones. Mount Waverley ($930,000) in the Monash LGA is one of the most upwardly-mobile suburbs in the nation, with sales per quarter rising from 134 to 177 to 191 to 246 throughout 2014.
The Kingston LGA, which includes middle market suburbs such as Cheltenham ($690,000) and Parkdale ($760,000), continues to emerge. It has one Rising Fast suburb, five Rising Steadily markets and four Consistency markets.
Cheaper areas further from the CBD are also thriving in the current cycle. The Casey LGA in the south-east has eight growth markets, including Endeavour Hills ($430,000) and Hampton Park ($350,000). Nearby, the Greater Dandenong and Frankston LGAs also have growth markets.
Whittlesea in the north is a strongly emerging precinct: it has one Rising Fast suburb and five Rising Steadily markets. Sales in Mill Park have been 70, 98, 90 and 140 in the past four quarters. The key feature in this precinct is affordability, good transport links and major jobs nodes.
The Brimbank LGA in the western suburbs continues to stand out. It has six Rising Steadily suburbs and eight Consistency markets. Again, it’s the power combination of affordability, infrastructure and jobs nodes that is driving this precinct.
Momentum in the Melbourne area spreads down to the Mornington Peninsula in the far south, where there is one Rising Fast market, three Rising Steadily suburbs and nine Consistency markets.
Upmarket areas such as the Boroondara LGA and the Glen Eira LGA feature, but most of the standout precincts are middle-market and bottom-end suburbs. This is where we expect to see the most price growth in 2015.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
 
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Terry Ryder

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