<p>Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.</p>

<p>A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.</p>

<p>Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.</p>

<p>“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.</p>

<p>Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.</p>

<p>“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.</p>

<p>The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.</p>

<p>It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.</p>

<p>The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.</p>

<p>One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.</p>

<p>Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.</p>

<p>The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.</p>

<p>Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.</p>

<p>Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.</p>

<p>Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.</p>

<p>“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”</p>

<p>Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.</p>

<p>Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.</p>

<p>Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.</p>


Joel Robinson

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

<p>Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p>The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.</p>

<p>Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" /></p>

<p>“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.</p>

<p>The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”</p>

<p>The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" /></p>

<p>The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.</p>

<p>According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.</p>

<p>“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.</p>

<p>A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" /></p>

<p>All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.</p>

<p>The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.</p>


Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

<p>Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.</p>

<p>The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.</p>

<p>Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" /></p>

<p>Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.</p>

<p>The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.</p>

<p>"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.</p>

<p>The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.</p>

<p>The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" /></p>

<p>Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.</p>

<p>Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.</p>


First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

<p>The Gold Coast Planning Committee has supported the preliminary approval for the Benowa Gardens Urban Village project following an extensive community consultation and assessment process.</p>

<p>The proposal will now proceed to a full council vote on June 2.</p>

<p>The application sought approval for a masterplanned urban village on the existing Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre site, combining new housing, retail, dining, health and lifestyle amenities within a walkable, integrated precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed redevelopment includes around 413 apartments integrated above a revitalised mixed-use centre featuring a full-line supermarket of 4,000 sqm, 6,000 sqm of specialty retail and dining space across around 30 retailers, a 7,000 sqm health and wellness precinct, and roughly 9,630 sqm of office and medical suites.&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fb36ae47-80bc-45f0-9914-31b0c7b6007d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C4%201121%20FI.jpg?VersionId=6mRKk2uU4r67TmTt39DKGUlvFRbTVqWa" /></p>

<p>The broader masterplan also includes very significant traffic and transport improvements, wide pedestrian walkways, upgraded pedestrian and cycle connections, and enhanced public areas designed to create a more connected and walkable community environment.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Centre owner Patrick Lu said the milestone reflected months of detailed planning, technical assessment and ongoing communication with local residents, businesses, schools and stakeholders.</p>

<p>“We appreciate the time, consideration and care Council officers and the Planning Committee have given this proposal throughout the assessment process,” Lu said.</p>

<p>“We also sincerely thank the local community for engaging with us, sharing feedback and participating in the consultation process over many months.</p>

<p><img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32fd1fc3-d0e6-485f-ac57-9916c9bcb818" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C5%201121%20FI_2.jpg?VersionId=fz8qQKDBLQ7MyFRc856Zccfbh9nFwLOe" /></p>

<p>“We understand projects of this scale bring questions and concerns, which is why we have worked hard to listen carefully, provide information transparently and continue refining elements of the proposal where possible.</p>

<p>“Our vision has always been to create a well-designed, community-focused urban village that responds to the changing needs of the Gold Coast, while delivering improved amenity, housing diversity, healthcare access and local lifestyle benefits.</p>

<p>“This proposal is about creating a genuine live-work-play environment where residents can access everyday services, schools, healthcare, dining, shopping and green space within walking distance, while also supporting local jobs and economic activity.”</p>

<p><img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="50dfbd04-590e-4fc6-983b-766880947867" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Dining%20Day%20Time%20-%20High%20Resolution.jpg?VersionId=BP7ZoKJ0DdL_8iRkkC8VVx99moICV6kg" /></p>

<p>Lu said the proposal had evolved significantly through consultation and technical review, particularly around traffic, pedestrian and student safety and neighbourhood connectivity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melissa Griffin, Director at Urbis, said the recommendation recognised the strategic importance of delivering more housing and services within established urban areas already supported by infrastructure.</p>

<p>“This proposal represents the type of thoughtful, integrated growth that planning frameworks across South-East Queensland are encouraging,” Ms Griffin said.</p>

<p>“The project seeks to place housing, retail, healthcare and employment opportunities together in a highly accessible location close to schools, transport and existing services.</p>

<p>“Importantly, the process has involved significant technical assessment and community engagement to ensure local issues and feedback were properly considered throughout the planning pathway.”</p>


$1 billion Benowa Gardens Urban Village heads to council vote following Planning Committee support

<p>Surfers Paradise is officially set for its first new residential development with a 45-storey skybridge connecting the two towers.</p>

<p>John Camilleri’s Celestino Developments has been given the green light by the Gold Coast City Council to develop its major beachfront precinct across its huge 4,000 sqm oceanfront site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">63–79 Garfield Terrace</a>, just five months after its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-exclusive-billionaire-winx-breeder-s-bold-two-tower-surfers-paradise-play-with-45th-storey-skybridge">submission in late 2025</a>.</p>

<p>The approved scheme will deliver two towers rising 55 and 48 storeys, connected by a skybridge positioned on level 45 that will house a range of resident-only wellness and entertainment spaces.</p>

<p>In its notice of approval, the Gold Coast City Council said the&nbsp;proposed overall built form has been designed to complement the scale, intensity and protect the adjacent amenity and surrounding streets through the use of varied setbacks, site cover and architectural elements.</p>

<p><img alt="First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ADyPJ_TFbJvSU9wZFOiCBnlPtgF7VWqW" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dbi">DBI</a>, the development will comprise 275 apartments across the two towers, including a mix of two-, three-, and four-bedroom residences, as well as several penthouses. The apartments will sit above a landscaped podium featuring more than 90 metres of beachfront pool frontage, private resident lawns, lounges, and wellness spaces.</p>

<p>DBI said the design draws heavily from the movement and form of the coastal environment, with curving balcony lines and sculpted façades intended to soften the scale of the towers while maximising ocean outlooks and passive shading outcomes.</p>

<p>“The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience,” DBI said in planning documents submitted to the Gold Coast City Council.</p>

<p>The most distinctive element of the approved project is the skybridge linking the two towers at level 45. The elevated communal space is planned to include executive lounges, formal dining areas, wellness facilities, and panoramic ocean-facing outlooks.</p>

<p>“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI said.</p>

<p>At podium level, residents will have access to a suite of resort-style amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a yoga lawn, gymnasium, plunge pools, and treatment spaces. The beachfront pool has been designed with separate lap, lounge, and children’s areas extending across the width of the site.</p>

<p>The project will also introduce new food and beverage offerings along the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages, contributing additional activation to the beachfront precinct.</p>


First look: Winx billionaire’s beachfront Surfers Paradise apartment development greenlit

Stock Market

<html><body>
<p><span>Juwai.com, China's biggest international real estate portal, is seeking an initial public offering as early as this year, according to Bloomberg.</span></p>
<p><span>The firm was raising funds from institutional investors and strategic partners before selling shares in a public offering at the end of the year or in early 2017, Juwai chief executive Charles Pittar said in Tokyo on Friday. </span></p>
<p><span>Juwai, which is based in Hong Kong and Shanghai, has two million unique visitors per month and means "Living Abroad".</span></p>
<p><span>It connects Chinese buyers with brokers overseas through 2.5 million listings on its website.</span></p>
<p><span>The company was founded by Australians Andrew Taylor and Simon Henry. <em>The Australian</em> reported its investors have included Simon Clausen.</span></p>
<p><span>Last year, Juwai reported unique users were up nearly 70 percent to 2.5 million a month.</span></p>
<p><span>Its property listings more than doubled to 4.5 million across 60 countries. </span></p>
<p><span>Juwai's users have a budget of $US2.6 million ($3.4 million) on average, the company's presentation materials say, though typically looking for homes ranging in price from $US500,000 to $US1.5 million.</span></p>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Juwai.com to float

<html><body>
<h4> </h4>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It’s been a shaky start to 2016 for global stock markets, with substantial falls across all international markets, followed by some weak rallies.</p>
<p>The overall decline has been partly blamed on the price of crude oil, which is hovering around US $30 a barrel down from $100 over a year ago, along with market fears on the overall health of the Chinese economy.</p>
<p>The headlines tell us markets are sinking in the sea of oil. A measure of fear in the stock market, the widely quoted Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, is also closely tracking the oil price, adding to the gloomy picture.</p>
<p>However the most likely driver of further market deterioration is not a further decline in oil prices, but the negative sentiment itself. This is due to a flaw in the way analysts ascribe value in markets that <a href="">behavioural economists</a> call “anchoring bias”.</p>
<p>This is the idea that people tend to start from what they know and then attempt to make appropriate adjustments based on this. Over 40 years of research has found that these adjustments tend to be insufficient.</p>
<p>Everyone can be prone to this bias, there are a few studies that demonstrate this. For example, when people were asked which year George Washington became the first US President, most would start from the year the US became a country (in 1776). They would reason that it might have taken a few years after that to elect the first president so they add a few years to 1776 to work it out, coming to an answer of 1778 or 1779. George Washington actually became president in 1789.</p>
<p>Similarly, most people would know the freezing point of water (0 degrees celcius) as compared to vodka. So if they were asked what the freezing temperature of vodka is, they would tend to start from 0 and adjust downwards. The freezing temperature of vodka is around -24 degrees celcius, much lower than what people usually answer.</p>
<p>Both these examples demonstrate how the reasoning associated with anchoring bias leads to people falling significantly short of the right answer.</p>
<p>In the case of the stock market, analysts look to the performance of blue-chip stocks linked to commodities like oil because they are associated with large, well established companies with time-tested business models. There are large data sets available with which to analyse these stocks.</p>
<p>However less than 4% of companies are classified as blue-chips globally. What about the remaining 96%? To value them, analysts may start from the payoffs of blue-chips and then attempt to make appropriate adjustments for size and other differences.</p>
<p>The overreaction of the market in relation to oil prices is further exposed by the fact that lower oil prices aren’t all bad news. Low oil prices can be good for countries that import oil as well as their consumers, retailers and industry. Higher production of goods drives cheaper prices leaving more money in the pockets of consumers to spend.</p>
<p>Other economic indicators also tell a very different story to the oil price. Job numbers are good both in the European region and US, and growth seems to be picking up.</p>
<p>In fact, based on encouraging data, Fed has recently raised interest rates for the first time after nine years. The slowdown in China is not the giant collapse that some were fearing.</p>
<p>If analysts and investors continue to display anchoring bias and the oil price drops, it could become a self fulfilling prophecy where a prolonged market slump cuts off investment, reduces consumption, and pushes the global economy into a recession. Central banks will do what they can to prevent this from happening by talking of quantitative easing. However, the interest rates are already near zero so they do not have much room to move.</p>
<p class="x_author"><span class="fn author-name">Hammad Siddiqi is r</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">esearch fellow in Financial Economics, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hammad-siddiqi-156874" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p>
</body></html>

Property 101: Behavioural economics: How hidden bias is sinking global stock markets

<html><body>
<p><span>Golly. My word there's some crappy economic data doing the rounds globally at the moment - the commodity markets smash-up continuing to take front and centre stage, while China's manufacturing activity gauge slumping to a 77 month low for good measure.</span></p>
<p><span>The commodity price exuberance was in part an echo of China's own property market largesse. Or if bubbles are your thing - and they seem to be all the rage these days - an echo-bubble of China's property bubble.</span></p>
<p><span>With stock markets in the business of tanking anywhere and everywhere from the US to the UK, Australia, China, Japan and...well, pretty much all over the show to be honest...perhaps it's no surprise that real estate is sifting back in favour togiven record low borrowing rates around the developed world.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Aussie stocks are well on track for their worst month since the global financial crisis having wiped close to 9 per cent off their value already in the month of August alone, while UK stocks have already meandered into correction territory.</span></p>
<p><span>On the flip side for British investment markets, the UK Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that UK mortgage lending has bolted to its highest level in seven years - since before the financial crisis fallout - at an estimated £22 billion for the month (where is the pound symbol on keyboards these days, by the way?).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/24/CML.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/CML.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>This is particularly noteworthy for Australian investors since the United Kingdom introduced macro-prudential measures of its own to its housing market back in 2014 in the form of the Mortgage Market Review (MMR).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now that the impacts of the MMR are already receding into the rear view mirror - and with interest rates still stuck at rock bottom at the effective "zero lower bound" - mortgage lending appears to be ripping higher again.<br><br>The key point here being that while macro-prudential markets may be designed to effectively slow the market, they don't take away the demand for property completely or permanently.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Hometrack</em> noted that Cambridge, Oxford and the English capital city of London are continuing to lead the way in terms of capital growth over the past year, which will come to no surprise to readers of my book <em>Get a Financial Grip</em> from some years ago, of course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/UK.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/24/UK.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>What's more, the boom could be only just be </span><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/11815503/House-prices-soar-in-major-UK-cities-and-this-is-just-the-beginning" target="_blank">in its infancy</a><span>.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Australia - 3 positives for property in 2016?</span></strong><br><br><div>Despite the implementation of macro-prudential measures in Australia whereby APRA will aim to cap investor lending credit growth at around 10 per cent per annum, there are three other forces which may conspire to see 2016 being a strong year for property.</div>
<br><div>Firstly, Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/josh-frydenberg-flags-no-ban-on-smsf-property-borrowing-20150820-gj4amh" target="_blank">reportedly</a> flagged that there will no banning of SMSF property borrowing, which could come as something of an upside surprise for capital city property markets, although those without substantial deposits may find real estate investment via their SMSF a tough proposition.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Secondly, does anyone else think that interest rates are on the "<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/the-long-slow-march-to-zero" target="_blank">long, slow march to zero</a>"? I can't predict the future, of course, but put it this way - I wouldn't be betting against it! </div>
<div>
<br>The cash rate futures implied yield curve suggests that markets area already looking for another interest rate cut to 1.75 per cent by the second half of 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to know where to start with commodity prices crash. The iron ore and coal correction, of course, has been one for the ages. Crude futures have hit upon a deadly slick.<br><br>"Dr. Copper" is testing 6 year lows and toying with financial crisis depths while lurking below US$2.30/lb. Precious metals are miles below their peaks...and on the list goes.<br><br>Ordinarily one might say that this will be bad news for property markets and investor sentiment, yet realistically with mortgage rates falling towards record lows and cash in the bank paying essentially nothing worthwhile after inflation, where else are Aussies going to invest their money?<br><br>Into our tanking and resources-heavy stock market? Hmm, not so sure about that.</div>
<br><div>Thirdly, with APRA targeting investor loans banks and lenders are likely to go all in on targeting owner-occupier lending.<br><br>HSBC are already now <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/owneroccupiers-targeted-with-interest-rate-deals-20150820-gj42mv" target="_blank">offering</a> variable rate mortgages from 3.99 per cent, with is just unbelievably cheap. We might expect to see other banks to follow suit. </div>
<br><div>
<em><a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/" target="_blank">CoreLogic-RP Data</a></em>'s index shows that Sydney home values are up by 1 per cent in first three weeks of August alone and a stonking 18.2 per cent over the past year. It's turning into a monster property boom, with Sydney dwelling values now up by more than 50 per cent since 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/RPD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/24/RPD.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>With Sydney inching closer to its market peak, investors are increasingly shaping up to scope out Brisbane for better value, with investor lending on a 12mMA basis now tracking at its highest level since April 2008.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/QLD.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/QLD.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Sure, APRA's investor lending crackdown will jam a stick in the spokes for a while, but meanwhile Queensland owner-occupier lending has also ghosted past five year highs on a 12mMA basis, after a subdued half decade. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/24/QLD2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/24/QLD2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>And remember the Queensland figures are being dragged down by any number of mining towns and regions which are experiencing negative demand i.e. recessionary conditions.</span><br><br><span>Brisbane could be the one to watch in 2016.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Three positives for property in 2016: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The recent collapse in the Chinese share market was preceded by a boom – a boom that was, in turn, fuelled by relaxed restrictions on margin lending, and a growth in the shadow banking sector<a href="https://www.economist.com/node/21601872/">.</a> Both served as inducements for Chinese retail investors to borrow in order to invest in a rising stock market.</p>
<p>The central bank urged people to buy local stocks, cut interest rates, and reduced the required reserve ratio for banks to free up more funds for lending. What could go wrong!</p>
<p>Since late 2013, Chinese authorities have pursued a policy of further opening up the capital markets. The aim has been to “internationalise” the local currency, the yuan (renminbi or “people’s money”), and to link the local stock exchanges to international markets. A major milestone was reached when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (also known as the “Through Train”) was launched in November 2014. This scheme now allows Hong Kong investors to trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and provides a channel for mainland capital into the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx) - further increasing the internationalisation of Chinese outbound investment.</p>
<p>The Chinese share markets (China has two national bourses, one in Shanghai and one in Shenzhen) are dominated by retail investment, and its 90 million retail investors have fuelled much of the growth.</p>
<p>Given the youth of the Chinese markets (born in 1990), Chinese retail investors are, by definition, inexperienced and prone, like any adolescent, to bouts of exuberance. Along with the <a href="https://www.kpmg.com/cn/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/China-Capital-Markets-FTSE-201106.pdf" target="_blank">stock market boom</a>, even more rapid rises in the value of the two exchanges have been driven by government measures aimed at encouraging money out of the over-heated property markets and into corporate equity<a href="https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/chinas-stock-market-valuation-grew-by-6-5-trillion-in-just-12-months-cw/2015/06/09/">.</a></p>
<p>The property bubble which has hit many Chinese cities has been worrying the authorities since at least 2010, and efforts have been made to crack down on property speculation and investment-driven demand. Home purchase restrictions where first put into place in 2010, and in March 2013 Beijing called for stricter enforcement of a 20% capital gains tax on home sale profits. It also asked cities with fast property price increases to raise the down payment requiremen<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.cnbc.com/id/100516350">t</a> and mortgage rate on second homes.</p>
<p>Damping down the property market is one part of China’s longer-term strategy to move away from its old model of high and increasing levels of investment, especially in industrial activity and urban infrastructure. The new model is based on lower investment, more subdued (more sustainable) growth and higher domestic consumption more in line with shifting national priorities towards improving the quality of air, water and living standards for more Chinese people.</p>
<p>By June last year analysts were warning that investor confidence in the domestic Chinese A-share market (A-shares are denominated in renminbi, B-shares in foreign currency) had been “weak for quite some time”. So when the Chinese banking authorities cracked down on margin lending in June, and the banks began to call in their margin loans, already fragile investor confidence collapsed quickly - and the market fell with it. Those falls continued this week, despite moves by Chinese authorities to restore confidence.</p>
<p>The Chinese authorities have reacted instinctively – the same way that authoritarian regimes everywhere react. They sought to rectify. Rectification in this case has been very restrained by Chinese standards, but even restrained intervention has meant the introduction of a slew of measures aimed at halting the free fall and stabilising the market. These have included temporary halts on trading on over half of all China-listed stocks, a six-month ban on major shareholders selling listed stocks, postponement of approved new listings (IPOs - initial public offerings) and suspension of new IPO approvals.</p>
<p>The Ministry of Public Security began investigations into <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1838247/chinese-police-find-signs-illegal-share-trading">“</a>malicious short selling” and some “suspicious foreign banks” (even the global market index provider MSCI was blame<a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1838214/msci-joins-list-reasons-china-market-crash">d</a> for the market crash).</p>
<p>The authorities also ordered major brokerages to increase their investments and further cut interest rates. The People’s Bank of China even announced it would provide liquidity support to the China Security Finance Corporation, which oversees the margin financing of brokers.</p>
<h2>Irrational exuberance</h2>
<p>As Robert Shiller explained in 2000, well before the global financial crisis, all markets experience periods of irrational exuberance. Nor should it surprise anyone that a market as young and uneducated as the Chinese market should be more volatile that most.</p>
<p>The real question now is what effect recent stock market volatility will have on the “real” Chinese economy. The first point here is that the Chinese stock index is not closely linked with the macro economy and is not an indicator for economic trends. Second, most financing does not come from the stock market, but from bank loans. Of <a href="https://cityoflondon.gov.uk/business/economic-research-and-information/research-publications/Documents/Research-2015/Chinas_capital_markets.pdf" target="_blank">total social financing</a> in 2014, only 2.6% came from the stock market, while bank loans accounted for 59%.</p>
<p>As the Chinese share markets stabilise around a new lower level, if the money lost from the market goes into real consumption, that could potentially even be good for the economy.</p>
<p>If money lost from the markets simply vaporises in the form of bad loans, gambling losses and corrupt payments, then that will be a significant loss, but one which an economy the size of China’s can bear. The net result, as often occurs with such events, will probably be a transfer of wealth from ordinary Chinese to the wealthy, including many major shareholders who have cashed out.</p>
<p>Ambitious plans for full yuan convertibility under the capital account will probably be delayed as the Chinese authorities become more cautious in their approach. In the longer term, the Chinese authorities, at the very least, will need to establish clearer measures for risk evaluation and responsibility, and begin to educate retail investors.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><em style="line-height: 1.3em;">Alice de Jonge is senior lecturer, International Law; Asian Business Law at Monash University and an author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alice-de-jonge-118840" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p class="role"><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </strong></p>
</body></html>

Stock Market

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Stock Market

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News