Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Reserve Bank

<html><body>
The ABS have release figures showing unemployment rate dropping from 6 percent to 5.8 percent from January to February.
Nine News finance editor Ross Greenwood said it takes real pressure off the Reserve Bank when it comes to considering interest rate cuts.
New South Wales unemployment rate has dropped to 5.3 per cent.
South Australia's unemployment rate increased for 6.6 percent to 7.7 percent from January to February.
Finance expert <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteWargent" target="_blank">Pete Wargent took to Twitter</a> to show the unemployment rates across the country, highlighting the southern states struggles
 
<img src="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%2011.56.02%20am.png" alt="" width="572" height="379">
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Property 101: March unemployment numbers drop from 6 percent to 5.8 percent

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GUEST OBSERVER
A new monthly uncertainty index has been constructed by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to track the cost of different factors such as international events and government policy decisions on the economy.
Uncertainty is widely recognised as being a drag for the economy. Workers who become more uncertain about their future wages typically reduce what they buy to save for the future and face events like, say, a pay cut.
Entrepreneurs unsure about the economic environment, such as fiscal incentive or the availability of technology, reduce their investment and wait until the uncertainty dissolves. Research has found in spikes of uncertainty, in a given country, overall demand for goods falls, at least temporarily.
While these sorts of predictions are common among economists and policy makers, it’s a lot harder to quantify the impact of uncertainty. What is needed is a way to measure the consequences of events that cause shocks of uncertainty in the economy. Unfortunately, economic uncertainty is not directly observable.
Economist Angus Moore from the RBA combined information from news (in particular, keywords such as “uncertainty”, “budget”, “policy” and so on), financial indicators (mainly, financial market volatility), and measures of disagreement among forecasters for key economic variables like firms' earnings and real GDP growth, to document the evolution of the Australian economic uncertainty from 1986 to 2014.
The RBA’s index appears to correlate with domestic events, like Paul Keating’s “recession we had to have” speech in November 1990, and even more clearly with external events such as<a href="https://theconversation.com/9-11-fostering-connections-after-the-horror-3105"> </a>the 9/11 terrorist attacks and Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. Some events, as the Greek debt restructuring in March 2012, actually correspond to decreases in the index because they work in favour of reducing uncertainty.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15308-1z0kkpl.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15308-1z0kkpl.jpg" alt="">
<h4>
Major events and economic uncertainty Angus Moore, Reserve Bank of Australia 
</h4>
One test of this index is how is might relate to key macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment. If an increase in uncertainty is one of the reasons for slow growth, the labour market should show signs of slowdown in the presence of high uncertainty.
A comparison of the employment rate with the uncertainty index shows that economic uncertainty does seem to move hand-in-hand with unemployment in Australia. In particular, the economic uncertainty index is on average 20 points higher when unemployment is rising.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15291-1bksyr2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/03/11/image-20160308-15291-1bksyr2.jpg" alt="">
<h4>Unemployment and economic uncertainty Angus Moore, Reserve Bank of Australia</h4>
It may be that major external shocks - like 9/11 - may induce variations in the business cycle and, consequently, generate uncertainty. It’s difficult to factor in the business cycle in the data that used to create an uncertainty index.
The RBA’s model found that increases in uncertainty of a fairly modest amount - such as 30 basis points - are associated with a downturn characterised by lower employment growth, weaker retail sales growth, and a fall in consumer confidence.
However, the size of the impact appears to be small. Uncertainty shocks are found to have a noticeable effect on the level of the cash rate, which decreases by about 20 basis points. This may explain why the impact of uncertainty on real activity is modest, for example, the RBA would have promptly intervened when needed in order to tackle the effects of spikes in uncertainty.
Does this mean that uncertainty is unimportant? No. In fact, the results point to the fact that, in absence of an adequate systematic policy response by the RBA, uncertainty could have more markedly slowed down the Australian economy.
Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, famously wrote in the aftermath of the collapse of the US financial markets in 2009 that there was “(nearly) nothing to fear but the fear itself.” Policymakers should aim at reducing uncertainty as much as possible by clearly communicating credible fiscal and monetary plans. This is crucial because, as the US case proves, economic uncertainty is more often than not driven by policy uncertainty.
In light of this relationship, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull should bear in mind that carefully managing Australian’s expectations on future economic policy reforms is a delicate task, and that backpedalling does not appear to be an option.
 
Efrem Castelnuovo is principal research fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, associate professor, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/efrem-castelnuovo-145615" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Economic uncertainty; nothing to fear but fear itself

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence fell by 2.2 per cent in March to 99.1. A reading of 100 is the dividing line separating optimism from pessimism.
Wisest place for savings: “Banks” was the wisest place to put new savings according to the survey.
Overall 27.4 per cent believe the wisest place for savings was in “banks”, up 1.2 percentage points over the quarter.
Next highest was “Pay debt” (24.4 per cent – 4-year high, up 6.6 percentage points), which overtook “real estate” (14.7 per cent, down 8.7pp). A total of 7 per cent of respondents were unsure of what to do with additional savings – the highest reading in records going back over 20 years.
Home loans: The number of loans (commitments) for people who are buying or building homes to live in (owner-occupiers) fell from 7-year highs, down by 3.9 per cent in January. Refinancing of home loans fell from record highs, down by 4.4 per cent in January.
The housing finance data has implications for banks, building material suppliers and retailers. The consumer confidence data is important for retailers and consumer-facing businesses.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2010.20.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2010.20.14%20AM.png" alt="">
What does it all mean?
The monthly consumer confidence data is now merely useful as a check against the timelier weekly survey. The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey has the same number of survey respondents as the monthly series, has been running over the same number of years and covers the same questions, but is conducted each week. And what is clear from both surveys is that confidence levels seemingly consolidated over the month.
According to the Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey, consumer sentiment eased marginally in the latest result. The Roy Morgan weekly reading indicated similar volatility over the month with consumer sentiment lifting in the past week. The improvement in the global outlook, stronger domestic economic data and the recent strength in the Australian dollar should support confidence levels over the medium-term.
Where is the wisest place to put new savings?
According to the latest survey it’s in the bank, which strengthened its ascendancy in the latest quarter. Interestingly the major loser in the quarter was “real estate”. This was surpassed by “pay debt” as the second best option for additional savings. It was the first time in 3ó years that “paying down debt had surpassed real estate. In fact only 14.7 per cent of respondents believed real estate was the best option for additional savings – the weakest reading in over four years. It is quite a turnaround for “real estate” given that just six months ago it was considered the most attractive savings option with the highest reading in 12 years.
No doubt the run up in house prices, tighter home lending criteria by the banking sector and recent consolidation in the housing sector are prompting more households to focus on alternative asset classes to property. Interestingly the low interest rates on offer and volatility in stock markets has seen a substantial lift in the number of respondents that do not know what to do with additional savings. A total of 7 per cent of respondents claimed not to know what to do with additional savings – the highest reading in records going back over 20 years.
Despite the recent pullback the home loan market remains in good shape. Especially when you consider that loans to home owners eased from a 7-year high. Where the weakness is more paramount is in investor loans which have fallen substantially over the past six months. The value of investor loans is now down almost 15 per cent on a year ago. The result is a positive for the housing sector given over-lending to the sector last year. More prudent lending policies should ensure that the housing sector continues to remain resilient, contrary to the discussion of a substantial downturn.
The Reserve Bank is comfortably on the interest rate sidelines. Refinancing may have eased in the past month from record highs but the low interest environment is likely to prompt more home owners to shop around for the best home loan rates in coming months.
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What do the figures show?
Housing finance - number
The number of new owner-occupier housing loans (commitments) fell by 3.9 per cent in January after rising by 2.7 per cent in December. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was down by 3.6 per cent.
Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes  down by 2.8 per cent in January; loans to buy newlyerected dwellings  fell by 3 per cent; and loans for the purchase of established dwellings  (excluding refinancing) fell by 3.8 per cent. The number of refinancing transactions  fell by 4.4 per cent.
Housing finance - value
The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) fell by 3.4 per cent in January after a 0.1 per cent fall in December. Owner-occupier loans fell by 4.3 per cent while investment loans fell by 1.6 per cent.
The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes  fell by 0.9 per cent in January after falling by 1.2 per cent in December. The value of loans to build new homes stood at $2.77 billion, weakening further from the record high of $2.93 billion in December 2014.
Consumer sentiment:
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence fell by 2.2 per cent in March to 99.1 after lifting by 3.9 per cent in February. The confidence index is down 0.4 per cent on a year ago. The current conditions index fell by 7.3 per cent while the expectations index rose by 1.7 per cent.
Three of the five components of the index fell in March:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down  by 8.2 per cent;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was up  by 0.2 per cent;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up  by 8.2 per cent;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down by 2.5 per cent;
 The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down by 6.6 per cent.
Gender &amp; demographics: Men (index reading of 104.6, up 2.3 per cent) were more optimistic than Women (94.4, down 6 per cent). The sentiment index for young people fell by 17.1 per cent to 99.9 in March. Across the other demographics: 25-44 years (index 103.1, up by 0.4 per cent); 45 years plus (index 96.3, down 0.7 per cent).
Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? – Index up 5.5 per cent in the quarter and although still down 13.1 per cent on the year.
Wisest place for savings: “Banks” was the wisest place to put new savings according to the survey. Overall 27.4 per cent believe the wisest place for savings was in “banks”, up 1.2 percentage points over the quarter. Next highest was “pay debt” (24.4 per cent, up 6.6pp), followed by “real estate” (14.7 per cent, down 8.7pp), “shares” (7.6 per cent, down 2.3pp), and “dont know” (7 per cent, up 4.1pp) “superannuation” (4.9 per cent, up 0.4pp).
State sentiment levels: NSW (up 1.6 per cent), Victoria (down 5.3 per cent), Queensland (down 2.6 per cent), Western Australia (up 1.2 per cent) and South Australia (down 10.6 per cent).
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What is the importance of the economic data?
Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.
Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.”
Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
From a broader sense, confidence levels are OK without being great. Looking forward, a period of calm on share markets and the recent strength in the Australian dollar could be key factors supporting household confidence.
For Aussie consumers, a stronger Aussie dollar means increased purchases on the internet and trips abroad, so the recent strength in the Aussie dollar will support confidence.
The Reserve Bank will be comforted by the more stable conditions in the investor housing market.
CommSec expects no change to interest rate settings for the foreseeable future.
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Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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“Pay debt” at a four year high: Commsec's Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
There have been no surprises from the RBA which left interest rates on hold at its March meeting. This marks the tenth month in a row with the cash rate remaining at 2 percent.
In its Statement accompanying the decision, the RBA made very little changes: continuing to sound less upbeat on the global economic outlook, acknowledging the volatility in financial markets, continuing to see inflation remaining low and seeing property price gains 
in Sydney and Melbourne as having moderated.
The RBA also indicated that it is continuing to wait for more information in order to be able the impact of financial turbulence on the Australian economy and to assess the labour market. 
However, it did make too substantive changes to its post meeting Statement. In removing a reference to above average levels for survey measures of business conditions and in saying that “continued low inflation would [as opposed to “may” in the February Statement] provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate…” the RBA appears to have strengthened its easing bias somewhat.  
Our view remains that the RBA will cut interest rates again this year reflecting the risks around the global economy, weaker than expected commodity prices, still subdued growth in Australia at a time when the contribution from housing construction is slowing, a more dovish Fed threatening a higher Australian dollar and continued low inflation. However, this may not come till May. Given the RBA’s focus on inflation the March quarter CPI to be released in late April will be worth watching.
However, whether there is another rate cut or not from the RBA, it remains very hard to see rate hikes any time soon. So the period of low interest rates is set to continue.
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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RBA on hold as expected, but signals a slightly stronger easing bias: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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Consumers continue to be hawkish about interest rates hikes, though the percentage expecting mortgage rates to rise has fallen in the last six months, reveals a recent survey.
The February results from the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index shows a majority (52 percent) expecting rates to rise, down from 57% in August, while 41 percent expect no change and 7 percent said rates could fall.
Though the majority figure has fallen, it is still a hawkish mix given the RBA’s mild easing bias, says the Westpac report. While official rates look to be ﬁrmly on hold, the RBA Governor’s decision statements have noted the “potential scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate”.
Even allowing for an apparent ‘upward bias’ to consumers’ rate expectations, this is a signiﬁcantly more hawkish view than economist forecasts and market expectations. "In other words, even though rates have declined more often than they have risen, consumers have rarely expected them to fall. Indeed, there is only one period – June 2012 – when the ‘net balance’ was for rates to fall," says the report.
There has been a modest rise in mortgage rates since August, with banks increasing their standard variable rates by an average of 20bps in November, citing increased capital requirements due to regulatory changes.
Prior to this, banks had already increased rates on investor loans by an average of 27bps.
The change in standard variable rates is broadly consistent with surveyed consumer expectations back in August with the median expectation at the time was for a 19bp increase. The median expectation from this month’s survey implies a further 7bp rise and a year ahead point estimate for mortgage rates of 5.72 percent.
The apparent ‘upward bias’ to consumers’ mortgage rate expectations makes it a little difficult to compare them with other benchmark measures of interest rate expectations, says the report.
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Consumers still hawkish on rates, at odds with market expectations: Westpac Red Book

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The RBA held rates steady at its December meeting at 2 per cent at its last board meeting of the year.
<div>Borrowers disappointed by the RBA’s decision to keep interest rates on hold can still get an early Christmas rate cut on their home loan by haggling their lender for a better deal, according to <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo.com.au</a>. 
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<div>In a recent mystery shopping exercise, Mozo staff posing as borrowers were able to haggle huge discounts of up to 1.25% off the standard variable home loan rate, simply by calling up the banks and asking. “The Big 4 are competing more fiercely for owner occupiers in the wake of the crackdown on investor lending, with discounts on offer to these borrowers the biggest we’ve seen,” said Mozo Director Kirsty Lamont. Mozo data shows that by haggling 1.25% off the average standard variable rate, borrowers could save $223 a month on their repayments on a $300,000, 30-year loan. “When pushed banks are prepared to offer better discounts beyond their advertised home loan deals which can lead to savings of $2676 each year for borrowers,” said Lamont.</div>
The REINSW President John Cunningham said the announcement was largely expected.  “This decision adds weight to a good stabilisation of the market into the New Year,” Mr Cunningham said.
Slower housing market conditions were likely a topic of conversation when the Reserve Bank board met today to deliberate on the cash rate setting. 
CoreLogic RP Data reported today a 1.5% fall in capital city dwelling values over the month of November and a 0.5% fall over in values over the past three months. 
"While the cash rate remained on hold, a less buoyant housing market is likely to provide the Reserve Bank with a greater degree of flexibility in adjusting interest rates without as much risk of over stimulating the housing market as what they have faced over previous months.
"While the Reserve Bank is likely to welcome a slowdown in the rate of home value appreciation, the overriding objective would be to avoid a significant downturn in the housing market, which would act as a weight on economic growth and potentially impact financial system stability," CoreLogic RP Data research head Tim Lawless said.
" Despite the stable rate setting, mortgage rates remain close to record lows which should continue to act as an incentive for home buyers and investors considering a property purchase," he added.
While today’s RBA decision to leave interest rates on hold has surprised no-one, Laing+Simmons managing director Leanne Pilkington said the cash rate is one of few steady elements in a housing market that has otherwise undergone recent change.
“The market for residential property has undergone a noticeable shift in recent months, with conditions moving toward a greater equilibrium between buyers and sellers, as opposed to the vendor favourable conditions earlier in the year,” Ms Pilkington said.
“The record clearance rates, low stock levels and rapidly increasing prices which characterised the first half of 2015 have now subsided somewhat as buyers exercise greater caution.
 “Demand remains robust, but we do not expect the double digit price growth of 2015 to be repeated in the year ahead,” she said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue to walk the interest rate tightrope over the summer as it considers a mixed bag of economic data, says mortgage broker John Kolenda adding it was no surprise to see the RBA following its final deliberation of 2015 leave official rates at the record low of 2.0 per cent.
But Mr Kolenda said a further rate cut is highly likely in the first half of 2016.
“The RBA has been a walking a tightrope leaving rates on hold since May this year due to the mixed economic data,” he said.
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RBA holds rates steady at December meeting

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GUEST OBSERVER
How are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; equipment investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling  commencements.
Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of ‘normal’ interest rates; we have done the same with key economic indicators. For each state and territory, latest readings for the key indicators were compared with decade averages – that is, against the ‘normal’ performance.
There has been little change in the latest rankings. NSW has retained top spot as the best performing economy while Victoria has consolidated second spot, with both states pushing further ahead of the other states and territories.
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The next grouping of economies is the Northern Territory and Western Australia which now share third spot in the performance rankings. 
And there is little to separate economies in the third grouping of state and territory economies. Queensland is fifth ranked, ahead of the ACT (sixth) followed by South Australia (seventh) and Tasmania (eighth). 
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NSW has retained its top rankings on population growth, retail trade and dwelling starts but now adds housing finance to the list. NSW is still second placed on unemployment and is also second strongest on equipment investment. The other rankings are: construction work (fourth) and economic growth (fifth). 
Victoria has consolidated second spot on the economic performance rankings. Victoria’s main strengths are population growth, housing finance and dwelling starts (second ranked on each indicator.) 
The Northern Territory remains the third ranked economy, but has fallen further behind Victoria and now shares the third ranking with Western Australia. 
Northern Territory is top ranked on economic growth, business investment and construction work done. But the ‘top end’ economy is last ranked on population growth, housing finance and dwelling starts. 
Western Australia is second on retail trade, economic growth and construction work, but higher unemployment (eighth ranked) has impacted housing activity. 
Queensland retains fifth position on the economic performance table but it is clear that it is now in a third grouping of economies with the ACT, South Australia and Tasmania. Queensland is middle ranked on most indicators. 
The ACT economy has retained sixth position on economic performance. The territory ranks third on economic growth and housing finance but is seventh ranked on three indicators. 
South Australia has held seventh spot on the economic performance rankings but Tasmania is showing better momentum. South Australia does best on population growth and equipment investment (both third ranked) but is seventh ranked on three indicators. 
Tasmania remains at the bottom of the Australian economic performance table. But importantly Tasmania is now top ranked on unemployment and third ranked on housing finance. 
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Ideally gross state product (GSP) would be used to assess broad economic growth. But the data isn’t available quarterly. Rather, state final demand (household and business spending) is added to exports less imports to act as a proxy for GSP. Exclusion of the trade sector would provide an incorrect assessment of growth for economies such as Western Australia and Queensland. 
There have been no changes in the rankings on economic activity. The Northern Territory continues to lead the way, up 26 per cent above its ‘normal’ or decade- average level of output. 
Next strongest is Western Australia, with output just over 18 per cent higher than the decade average level of output. Then follows ACT (up 16.5 per cent) from Victoria (up 11.6 per cent) and NSW (up 10.8 per cent). 
At the other end of the scale, economic activity in Tasmania in the June quarter was just 0.6 per cent above its decade average, while South Australian activity was up almost 7 per cent on its ‘normal’ or average output over the past decade. Queensland economic activity was up by around 10 per cent on the decade average. 
The ACT now has the fastest annual economic growth rate in the nation, up by 4.0 per cent on a year ago, ahead of Victoria with 3.9 per cent and NSW (1.4 per cent). 
By contrast, the Northern Territory economy is down 7.4 per cent on a year ago, while Western Australian economic activity is down 2.0 per cent on a year ago with the Queensland economy down 0.2 per cent on a year ago. 
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 Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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State of the States: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
When a couple of gloomy reports are produced on the housing market, it is always good to get a calm, reasoned view from the Reserve Bank. Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Philip Lowe believes we are at the point “where supply is kicking in” in the Sydney housing market.
In other words, demand for homes has been strong, exceeding supply, and resulting in strong growth of home prices. But now Lowe believes that more homes are being built to meet the strong demand and that should lead to more modest growth in home prices.
The Reserve Bank Deputy Governor does warn that “people need to be careful” when it comes to the housing market – and that is always useful advice. But the Deputy Governor has clearly distanced the RBA from some of the housing market ‘gloom and doom’ stories.
The Reserve Bank Deputy Governor dismissed assertions that business and consumer confidence were weak (“that is just not right”). And with exquisite timing, consumer confidence lifted 5.1 per cent in the latest week while business confidence also improved. But we shouldn’t be under any illusions – consumers like a stronger Aussie dollar and the dollar soared last week. We can wrap it up in different ways, but the dollar no doubt had a lot to do with boosting sentiment levels.
The latest business survey was solid. Business sentiment rose and operating conditions are well above “normal” – in fact the smoothed measure of business conditions hit 5-year highs. In addition, the employment component of the survey hit a 4-year high and there were more signs of inflationary pressures.
The one area of concern is that businesses still aren’t keen to borrow. Almost 80 per cent of firms indicated that no borrowing was required in September. This may mean that businesses are living within their means. But with interest rates at record lows, the absence of borrowing is surprising.  
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What do the figures show?
National Australia Bank Business Survey:
The NAB business conditions index eased slightly from +9.2 points to 9.1 points in September but the rolling annual average hit a 5-year high. The business confidence index rose from +0.8 points to 5.1 points. The survey was conducted from September 24 to 30. 
NAB noted: “There remains, however, a notable divergence in business conditions across industries. Services industries continue to outperform, while the mining industry trails well behind. It is promising though that mining and manufacturing were the only industries to report negative conditions – just the second time only two industries have been negative since mid-2011.”
“Not all industries saw a lift in confidence, however, with the improvement largely concentrated in transport/utilities (up 14) and personal services (up 12). Both these industries are enjoying the highest confidence levels (at +13 and +16 points respectively); while unsurprisingly mining firms were least confident (at -14).
Components. The index of trading conditions fell from +19.1 to +15.4; employment rose from minus 0.8 points to a 51-month high of +4.5 points; profitability eased from +10.4 points to +7.6 points; forward orders fell from +4.6 points to +2.8 points.
Inflationary indicators were higher in September. The monthly reading of labour costs rose at a 0.6 per cent quarterly rate in September, up from 0.5% in August. Purchase costs rose at a 1.0% quarterly rate in September, after a 0.8% rise in August. Final product prices were up 0.2% in September. And retail prices were up by 1.2%t in September after a 0.7% rise in August.
Capacity utilisation rose from 81.2 to a 44-month high of 81.3%, matching the result in June. Capacity use is above the long-term average of 81.0%.
The proportion of firms reporting that they did not require credit rose from 52% in August to a record high of 79% in September.
Consumer sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 5.1% to a 15-week high of 115.6 in the week to October 11. Confidence is up 1.6% over the year and above the average of 111.4 since 2014.
All of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
<ol>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +4 to +9;</li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +22 to +30;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from -4 to -1;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +2 to +13;</li>
<li>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +26 points to +27 points.</li>
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Speech by Reserve Bank Deputy Governor
Reserve Bank Deputy Governor, Philip Lowe, delivered a speech “Fundamentals and Flexibility” 
“I would like to focus on a different set of fundamentals: that is, the fundamentals of the Australian economy. My central message is that these fundamentals are strong and that they provide us with the basis to be optimistic about the future.” 
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In terms of economic fundamentals, Lowe highlighted five factors: the institutional framework; “our people”; mineral resources; agricultural assets; and “our links with Asia and our expertise in delivering high-quality services.” 
“Together, this combination of fundamentals should provide us with confidence that we can continue to experience advances in our living standards. It is a combination of fundamentals that few other countries enjoy.”
Philip Lowe highlighted a number of areas that affect flexibility such as exchange rates; and the financial system.
Philip Lowe highlighted four factors outside central bank control that improve flexibility of the economy: the competitive environment in which firms operate; incentives to innovate and to start new businesses; operation of the labour market; and the nature of our education system.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The monthly National Australia Bank business survey is valuable in providing a timely reading about the health of Corporate Australia. Key indicators of business conditions such as orders, employment, profitability and capacity use are covered together with a gauge on confidence levels.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank Deputy Governor has admitted that interest rates are less effective than they used to be. So the Reserve Bank won’t be rushing to change interest rate settings. The good news is that the Reserve Bank Deputy Governor remains very positive on the outlook and that is backed by the latest economic data. In short, there are simply no reasons to be touching rates.
The environment remains positive for businesses selling consumer goods and services. The outlook for family finances – the part of the consumer sentiment survey that the Reserve Bank tracks closely – hit a 20-month high in the latest week.
No one should get too complacent on inflation. The NAB business survey notes “Consumer price pressures building” with retail prices lifting at the fastest quarterly rate for over three years.
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Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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RBA says Sydney supply kicking in: CommSec's Craig James

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Policy should not advantage property investors at the expense of prospective owner-occupier home buyers, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
In the submission to the inquiry into Home Ownership, the Reserve bank stated that financial stability considerations would suggest that tax and regulatory frameworks should avoid encouraging over-leveraging into property, whether by owner-occupiers or investors. 
"In considering opportunities for reform, the Bank believes that it is worth bearing in mind that there are both benefits and costs of owner-occupation. 
"The broad policy objective of ensuring that all Australians can access suitable housing at reasonable cost need not translate into an objective that all households should purchase their home early in life, let alone that they should all be able to purchase their first home in their ideal location. 
Home ownership in Australia increased considerably over the past century, but has been stable at around 70 per cent since the 1960s. 
"The increases were concentrated in the periods immediately after the two world wars, particularly World War II (WWII), as a result of significant government assistance including War Service Homes programs."
According to the latest Census, around 68% of Australian households owned their own home in 2011.
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"The general stability in home ownership in Australia over recent decades has masked some marked changes in home ownership among different age groups. 
"In particular, there has been a pronounced decline in home ownership among younger households, particularly in the 25–34 and 35–44 age groups. Home ownership rates have generally been more stable among older households. 
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Factors contributing to lower home ownership rates among younger households include the following.
"An increase in income inequality over recent decades, in part reflecting the simultaneous rise of two-income households with increasing workforce participation by women as well as the rise of single adult households (with or without dependents). 
"This led to increased borrowing capacities for households with high home ownership propensities, which will tend to have advantaged older households over younger ones. Accordingly, the decline in home ownership rates over the past decade or so has been concentrated in the third and fourth income quintiles, while that of the top income quintile has been little changed.
"Financial innovation in the 1990s and the 2000s arguably led to greater relaxation of restrictions on borrowing for higher-income households than for lower-income households. 
"Increased labour market flexibility, accelerated technological change and other factors may have increased employment and income insecurity and so reduced the willingness of some households to take on the long-term financial commitment of owning a home (or the ability to service a loan) and the capability of some to remain in home ownership."
The home ownership rate in most states remains above levels. While all states had home ownership rates between 65 and 75 per cent as at the latest Census, there is still considerable variation across states, with home ownership ranging from a low of around 65 per cent in Queensland to a high of almost 72 per cent in Tasmania and Victoria. 
"The transition to a low-inflation regime, implying lower nominal interest rates, has significantly increased households’ borrowing capacities relative to their current incomes, and therefore their capacity to service debt on owner- occupied housing. 
"Survey evidence suggests that total housing costs of owner-occupiers have not moved much relative to incomes over the past couple of decades. 
"Alongside the other demand drivers, one fundamental determinant of housing demand will be the rate of new household formation, which is in turn dependent on the interaction between population growth and developments in average household size. 
"After relatively stable growth from the early 1990s through to the mid 2000s, Australia’s population growth stepped up significantly owing to higher net immigration and, to a lesser extent, a slightly higher rate of natural increase.
"The composition of population growth can also influence housing demand. Much of the fluctuation in population growth rates over the past decade has been driven by fluctuations in net arrivals of people on student visas."
Recent rule changes have made it easier for students to remain in Australia after graduation, including by becoming permanent residents. 
"Over the shorter term, fluctuations in interest rates can be expected to affect the demand for housing. By reducing the burden of debt repayments relative to income, lower interest rates may ease cash-flow constraints and increase borrowing capacity at the margin. This effect applies both to owner-occupiers and investors. 
"Lower interest rates also encourage households to save less and borrow more in the present, thereby shifting consumption from the future. 
"However, prudent buffers on the minimum interest rates that lending institutions use to calculate allowable mortgage loan sizes imply that this effect might be smaller when interest rates are already low. 
<a href="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.12.47%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.12.47%20PM.png" alt="" width="509" height="500">
"The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has recently provided guidance to lenders that the interest rate used in these serviceability tests should be at least 7% (APRA 2014). The Bank estimates that the lower limits on interest rates used in these calculations are probably binding at present, or close to binding. 
"Thus, households that already planned to borrow as much as lenders would permit would not see an increase in borrowing capacity from a decline in interest rates at present. 
The proportion of the housing stock owned by investors looks to have risen over recent decades, offsetting the decline in the prevalence of public housing. 
The investor share is also likely to have risen a little further over the past few years, as investors have accounted for an increasing share of property purchases since 2012.  
"While the incidence of property investment increases with the level of income, the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey also suggests that most investor households are in the top two income quintiles. 
"These households hold nearly 80 per cent of all investor housing debt, and appear well placed to service their debt: they typically use less than 25 per cent of their income to service their total property debt, and around half are ahead of schedule on all their mortgage repayments.
It would be counterproductive to try to encourage more home ownership by making it easier for marginal buyers to borrow more. Both for this reason and in the interests of financial system stability, the Bank would not support measures that expanded credit supply to households at the expense of prudent mortgage lending standards. 
The Bank believes that there is a case for reviewing negative gearing, but not in isolation. Its interaction with other aspects of the tax system should be taken into account. 
"The ability to deduct legitimate expenses incurred in the course of earning income is an important principle in Australia’s taxation system, and interest payments are no exception to this. To the extent that negative gearing induces landlords to accept a lower rental yield than otherwise (at least while continued capital gains are expected), it may be helpful for housing affordability for tenants. 
"It is worth noting, however, that the interaction of negative gearing with other parts of the taxation system may have the effect of encouraging leveraged investment in property. 
"In particular, the switch in 1999 from calculating CGT at the full marginal rate on the real gain to calculating it as half the taxpayer’s marginal rate on the nominal gain resulted in capital gain-producing assets being more attractive than income-producing assets for some combinations of tax rates, gross returns and inflation. 
"This effect is amplified if the asset can be purchased with leverage, because the interest deductions are calculated at the full marginal rate while the subsequent capital gains are taxed at half the marginal rate. 
"Since property can usually be purchased using higher leverage than other assets that produce capital gains, property is especially affected by this feature of the tax system. 
"Another change in the landscape since 2003 is that superannuation funds are now able to borrow. Some self-managed superannuation funds have taken advantage of this by adding geared property into the fund portfolio, both residential and, in particular, commercial property. 
"The Bank has previously observed that leverage in superannuation funds may increase vulnerabilities in the financial system and therefore supports limiting the scope for leverage in these funds.
"Additional housing supply ought to dampen housing prices, and more probably will reduce the growth rate of housing prices that occurs in response to increases in demand for housing. 
"There is no example in Australia or internationally where supply expansion on its own generated housing price declines of a similar order of magnitude to the increases in prices seen in some Australian cities in recent years; some academic work on this issue suggests that removing supply constraints in a single population centre might not reduce prices significantly (Aura and Davidoff 2008)." 
<a href="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.15.41%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
Housing Debt Serviceability
<img src="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.15.41%20PM.png" alt="">
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Tax, regulations should avoid encouraging over-leveraging into property: RBA

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<div>An extraordinary speech in Sydney from the Reserve Bank's Luci Ellis which could almost be an advertorial for what experienced property investors already know - when it comes to property investment, location really is everything.</div>
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<div>The supply of prime location land, explains Ellis, is essentially fixed, yet with a growing population in Australia the demand for it grows by the year.</div>
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<div>The inevitable result therefore has been that inner ring land values and therefore house prices continue to rise faster than those in the outer suburbs, and not only by a small margin. </div>
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<div>Ellis explains that even releasing more land around the capital city fringes may not be effective at bringing down inner ring house prices since the prime location land which everyone seems to want to get their hands on remains fixed in both place and supply.</div>
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<div>Research by the Reserve Bank shows that place is nearly always more important than spacewhen it comes to driving property prices, and buyers will always pay a premium for inner suburban housing.</div>
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<div>Moreover, significant increases in demand cannot be absorbed by new supply of prime location land, quite simply because there is none.</div>
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<div>In the words of Ellis: "The newly buily supply is simply not the same as the existing stock, because it is somewhere else".</div>
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<div>Indeed. I wrote about this very same issue - "substitutability" - some time ago. </div>
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<div>There is nothing particularly new about this idea, of course, but the Reserve Bank provides the research to prove the point by comparing the growth in "prices of inner ring properties to those further out, particularly in Sydney".</div>
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<div>The gap in the relative price action performance is both material and ongoing, with the data from 2006 to 2014 proving the point and ending any arguments.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/09/09/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/09/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>Within the above framework if outperformance is what you are seeking it obviously helps to find suburbs which are set to improve in some way (for example, a gentrifying location, or set to benefit from a new light rail link). Over recent cycles, house prices have also outperformed apartment prices in most capital cities, although with initial rental yields often 1 per cent or more lower on average for inner suburban houses generally the growth needs to be stronger to compensate for the weak initial cash flow. The old adage is true. When it comes to property, it really is first and foremost about "location, location, location".</div>
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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