<p>Melbourne developer Spacious Group has completed Voyage Altona, one of the closest new apartment developments to Altona Beach.</p>

<p>Off the plan purchasers have started moving into the 49-apartment project on Pier Street, with the remaining move-in-ready one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments starting from just over $500,000.</p>

<p>Display apartments have now been fitted out, allowing prospective buyers to inspect the completed residences by appointment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=372638]</p>

<p>The completed apartments feature open-plan living and dining areas which extend onto private balconies and terraces, while full-height glazing maximises natural light throughout the interiors.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hybrid timber-look flooring, stone benchtops, Miele appliances, porcelain-tiled bathrooms and generous storage feature throughout the building which also features landscaped communal areas, expansive shared terraces, lift access and secure on-grade parking.</p>

<p>Drawing inspiration from its bayside setting, Voyage adopts a restrained palette of warm neutral tones and textured finishes. Many of the apartments take advantage of views across Port Phillip Bay, while the indoor-outdoor living spaces have been designed to make the most of the coastal outlook.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=3286]</p>

<p>Voyage was developed to address what Spacious Group identified as an undersupply of higher-quality apartment product in Altona, with a focus on owner-occupiers looking to remain within the bayside community.</p>

<p>"Voyage responds to very strong local buyer demand for quality, owner-occupier-focused product," says Barry Plant Projects Director Jarrod Farey, who has handled sales since the project's launch.</p>

<p>"The project delivers an elevated lifestyle proposition, with its design and quality of finish far exceeding anything previously produced in the area, as well as its proximity to Pier Street Village and the beach."</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers have been local downsizers and owner-occupiers looking to stay within the Altona community but who previously had limited opportunities to buy a brand-new apartment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112195]</p>


Joel Robinson

Spacious Group completes Voyage Altona in Altona's beachside precinct

<p>Homecorp has secured approval for a $360 million apartment development at Budds Beach, paving the way for one of the Gold Coast's most amenity-rich residential projects to launch later this year.</p>

<p>Gold Coast City Council has approved Lýon Residences, a 32-level tower that will deliver 178 two and three-bedroom apartments across a prominent corner site at 8-10 Acacia Avenue and 25-27 Oak Avenue.</p>

<p>The approval comes as developers continue to invest in premium lifestyle-driven apartment projects on the Gold Coast, where owner occupiers are increasingly prioritising amenity as much as apartment size and location.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/l-on-residences-25-27-oak-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Lýon Residences</a> has been designed around a resort-style wellness offering, headlined by a Moroccan-inspired spa precinct featuring treatment rooms, a Nordic sauna and steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, a soaking pool and a residents-only juice bar.</p>

<p>The rooftop will include a heated infinity pool and spa, residents' lounge with private kitchen and bar, gymnasium, yoga and Pilates studio, outdoor entertaining areas and barbecue facilities overlooking the Surfers Paradise skyline.</p>

<p><img alt="Lyon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d3e29af-8793-486e-a684-52cef862241f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-15%20at%204.32.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ayG2zpLf3SS6Zy8XmKDcQods4kVWb0gm" /></p>

<p>Homecorp Founder and CEO Ron Bakir said Budds Beach provided the ideal location for the company's latest luxury apartment project.</p>

<p>"Budds Beach represents one of the most unique and sought-after pockets of the Gold Coast, and Lýon Residences has been designed to reflect that sense of rarity and refinement," Bakir said.</p>

<p>The project arrives as wellness continues to become a defining feature of new residential developments both in Australia and internationally.</p>

<p>The latest Global Wellness Institute figures show wellness real estate remains the fastest-growing segment of the global wellness economy and is forecast to exceed $1.8 trillion by 2030. Australia continues to rank among the world's 15 largest wellness real estate markets, with developers increasingly integrating health, recreation and community facilities into apartment projects.</p>

<p>Queensland is also experiencing strong population growth, with the Gold Coast continuing to outperform many other Australian cities as demand for new housing remains elevated ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Bakir said the project had been designed to respond to that shift in buyer expectations.</p>

<p>"Strong population growth and sustained demand across the Gold Coast continue to highlight the need for well-designed new housing supply. Lýon Residences responds directly to this demand while setting a new benchmark for residential living," he said.</p>

<p>Each apartment has been designed to maximise views across the coastline, the Nerang River and the Gold Coast hinterland.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from Surfers Paradise beach and the Broadwater, the development also offers easy access to the light rail network, Broadbeach and Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>Early site works are underway, with construction expected to commence later this year.</p>


Homecorp approved for Budds Beach apartment tower, Lýon Residences

<p>New apartment developments with uninterrupted, north-facing views over Perth's Swan River are exceptionally rare.</p>

<p>Recognising just how limited those opportunities are, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/edge-visionary-living">Edge Visionary Living</a>, one of Perth's most respected builder-developers, targeted <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/applecross-wa-6153">Applecross</a>, assembling an unrepeatable 6,342 sqm riverfront site on the corner of Moreau Mews and Canning Beach Road to create one of Perth's only new north-facing apartment developments directly overlooking the Swan River.</p>

<p>Today, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/riviere-residences-applecross-59-canning-beach-road-applecross-wa-6153">Rivière Residences</a> offers buyers a unique opportunity to choose between completed residences ready to move into now and off-the-plan homes in the final stage, Rivière West.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=3823]</p>

<p>Across the completed East and Central buildings, residents are already enjoying the development's luxury amenity, while two of the precinct's hospitality venues are now open.</p>

<p>The completed component of the development gives buyers the advantage of experiencing the finished product firsthand, including its uninterrupted river views, while still having the opportunity to secure a residence in the final stage.</p>

<p>"People are wowed by the view and the quality of the apartments,"&nbsp;Edge Visionary Living Sales Executive, Holly McSweeney, says.</p>

<p>"They're looking for the convenience of lock-and-leave living, but they're not looking to downsize on quality."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=3826]</p>

<p>The rarity of the development hasn't been lost on prospective buyers, McSweeney says.</p>

<p>For McSweeney, it all comes back to a location that is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate.</p>

<p>"Location, location, location," she says. "We are nestled right on the front of the Swan River. You can never get built out, so wherever you are in Rivière Residences, you've got views of the river forever."</p>

<p>The unique waterfront position has resonated particularly strongly with local downsizers. McSweeney says many buyers are long-time Applecross residents looking to transition from large family homes into a luxury apartment without sacrificing space, quality or the lifestyle they've enjoyed for decades.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N_FowNW0wu8?si=vb25XFq1wZ-iufAW" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>A major focus for Edge in recent years has been resident amenity. Across its apartment portfolio, from beachfront developments in Scarborough to luxury towers in South Perth, the developer has increasingly invested in the spaces beyond the apartment itself.</p>

<p>The strategy has largely been shaped by downsizer demand. Many buyers are moving from large family homes with swimming pools and established gardens. While they're looking to leave the maintenance behind, they don't want to compromise on lifestyle.</p>

<p>At Rivière, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hillam-architects">Hillam Architects</a> designed the resident facilities as an extension of each apartment. A 25-metre heated swimming pool takes advantage of the north-facing river outlook, complemented by a large gym, sauna and steam rooms, private dining spaces, residents' lounges, a cinema, games room, and dedicated wine and whisky rooms.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=372542]</p>

<p>The waterfront location has also proved to be a major drawcard. Residents are within walking distance of the Raffles Hotel, South of Perth Yacht Club, the Heathcote Cultural Precinct and the cafés, restaurants and boutiques along Ardross Street.</p>

<p>Beyond the location and amenity, McSweeney says many buyers take confidence from Edge's fully integrated development model.</p>

<p>Having delivered apartments across Perth for decades, Edge now designs, develops and constructs its projects in-house, giving the company greater control over quality, delivery and the finished product.</p>

<p>"What I love is when people walk through their apartment for the first time and say, 'This is better than what we imagined,'" McSweeney says. "We hear that all the time."</p>

<p>Completed apartments in the East and Central buildings are now available to inspect by appointment, while Rivière West, the final stage of the precinct, is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=28384]</p>


North-facing Swan River views drive demand at Rivière Residences in Applecross

<p>Nearly 60 per cent of apartments at McNab Group's $220 million The Tannery development in Brisbane's West End have sold ahead of the project's public launch, including a suburb-record $2.57 million sale for a two-bedroom apartment.</p>

<p>The early sales campaign has secured buyers for 50 of the project's 87 apartments, highlighting continued demand for larger owner-occupier apartments that combine generous floorplans with premium lifestyle amenities in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374768]</p>

<p>McNab Group Executive Chairman Michael McNab said selling more than half the project before launch reflected changing buyer expectations.</p>

<p>"Selling more than half the project before public sales open tells us buyers are actively seeking apartments that offer something genuinely different," McNab said.</p>

<p>"Today's buyers are looking beyond four walls. They want homes that genuinely enhance the way they live, with spaces that support health, connection and everyday wellbeing."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374767]</p>

<p>A key point of difference for the project is the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed Dixon's Tannery building, which will become The Retreat, a residents-only wellness precinct rather than being redeveloped into additional apartments.</p>

<p>The Retreat will feature a sauna and steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, a commercial-grade gym, Pilates studio, cinema, library, co-working spaces and private dining room. Rooftop amenities will include a swimming pool, landscaped gardens, outdoor entertaining areas and dog-friendly spaces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374760]</p>

<p>Designed by Cottee Parker Architects with interiors by Tom Mark Henry and landscape architecture by Aspect Studios, The Tannery comprises 87 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 11 levels overlooking the Brisbane River.</p>

<p>Cottee Parker principal Dee Passenger said preserving the original tannery building had been central to the project's design.</p>

<p>"The easy option would have been to maximise the site's development potential with additional apartments. Instead, McNab has chosen to preserve the original tannery as a shared wellness retreat, ensuring this important piece of Brisbane's history remains at the heart of the community."</p>

<p>Passenger said sustainability also played a key role in the design, with materials from the original industrial site salvaged and repurposed throughout the development.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374761]</p>

<p>Motiv CEO Carly Cottam said buyers had responded strongly to the combination of larger apartments, wellness facilities and the West End lifestyle.</p>

<p>"We are seeing more buyers looking for homes in the sky that provide the space and functionality of a traditional home, while benefiting from the convenience and lifestyle that apartment living brings," Cottam said.</p>

<p>She said purchasers included both owner occupiers and investors, with demand coming from local buyers as well as interstate purchasers.</p>

<p>Coinciding with the public launch, McNab also announced a partnership with Queensland Ballet, whose neighbouring Thomas Dixon Centre shares historical ties with the original Dixon family.</p>

<p>Located on a 4,465 sqm site at 439 Montague Road, The Tannery overlooks the Brisbane River and is around 10 minutes from the CBD.</p>

<p>Construction is underway, with completion expected in the second half of 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=143337]</p>


More than half of residences sold before public sales as McNab announces significant partnership with Queensland Ballet

McNab's The Tannery nears 60 per cent sold before public release, sets two-bedroom West End record

<p>Iwan Sunito's vision for a landmark mixed-use precinct in Sydney's Inner West has taken a major step forward, with approval granted for the $1.9 billion Five Dock development first unveiled earlier this year.</p>

<p>The approved scheme by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/one-global-capital">One Global Capital</a> will deliver an 80,500 sqm mixed-use precinct comprising 840 apartments, integrated hotel accommodation, commercial and retail space, alongside publicly accessible open space designed to create a new destination for the growing suburb.</p>

<p>"This is a significant milestone for One Global Capital and for the future of housing delivery in Sydney," Sunito said.</p>

<p>"The Housing Delivery Authority was established to identify major housing projects capable of delivering meaningful supply more efficiently, and we are delighted that Spencer Street has been recognised as one of those projects.”</p>

<p>He said the declaration reflected the rapid progress achieved since acquiring control of the site.</p>

<p>"In less than seven months we have progressed from taking control of the site to securing entry into one of the NSW Government's most important planning pathways. It reflects the experience of our team, the strength of our consultant group led by Urbis, and our long-term commitment to delivering transformational projects that contribute to Sydney's future."</p>

<p>When the project was revealed earlier this year, Sunito described the opportunity as one of the strongest development sites he had worked on.</p>

<p>"I probably hadn't appreciated the uniqueness of the site until more recently when putting together the concept plans," Sunito said.</p>

<p>"The proximity to the water, and the golf course opposite, is unlike any other part of Parramatta Road. We have a unique position and view corridors over the water that makes this one of the best sites I've worked on."</p>

<p>The development has evolved since its initial announcement, with the approved plans increasing the residential component from the originally proposed 750 apartments to 840 homes while retaining the project's focus on creating an integrated neighbourhood rather than a standalone residential development.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/a-city-within-a-city-iwan-sunito-flags-1-5-billion-mixed-use-precinct-in-five-dock">"A city within a city": Iwan Sunito flags $1.5 billion mixed-use precinct in Five Dock</a></em></p>

<p>The precinct will combine apartments with hotel accommodation, commercial workplaces, retail offerings and public spaces, creating a mixed-use environment intended to serve both residents and the broader Five Dock community. The proposal also continues the collaboration between One Global Capital and internationally recognised architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a>, whose previous work with Sunito includes Infinity, Arc and Skye North Sydney.</p>

<p>Takada previously said the design was driven by a philosophy of integrating nature into the built environment.</p>

<p>"The concept for this development is born from our design approach to naturalising architecture," Takada said.</p>

<p>"The public realm benefits from biophilic design that integrates generous landscaping, and the development is optimised for natural daylight, airflow and water views to foster wellbeing, sustainability and spaces that foster community interaction."</p>

<p>Sunito has consistently described the project as a "city within a city", with a strong emphasis on creating a destination that extends beyond housing.</p>

<p>"We want to create a development that's not only to be seen, but to be experienced by the whole local community," he said.</p>

<p>The approval comes as Five Dock continues its transformation ahead of the opening of the Sydney Metro West line, with the new Five Dock station set to significantly improve connections between the Inner West, Parramatta and the Sydney CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The precinct will also benefit from its proximity to the Parramatta Road corridor, nearby waterfront parklands and established retail and dining offerings that have made Five Dock one of Sydney's most tightly held Inner West suburbs.</p>


Iwan Sunito secures approval for $1.9 billion Five Dock mixed-use precinct

Reserve Bank

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The RBA has downwardly revised its near term growth forecasts as well as shaving a bit from their medium term projections. Inflation forecasts remain intact and both headline and core inflation are expected to gradually rise from here.</p>
<p>The RBA see the unemployment rate tracking sideways over 2017 at 5 3⁄4 percent.</p>
<p>We have the RBA cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent throughout 2017.</p>
<p>The RBA’s updated forecasts are further evidence that Governor Lowe doesn’t intend to take the cash rate lower. The Bank has essentially looked through the QIII contraction in the economy and has forecast decent growth outcomes over the next two years. In addition, headline inflation is forecast to return to target over 2017. As such, the Bank retains a neutral bias despite there being no forward guidance in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP).</p>
<p>Looking at the Bank’s through the year forecasts implies that the pace of growth picks up from 2 percent/pa mid-2017 to an above-trend 3 percent by year end. It is expected to remain above trend over the rest of the forecast period (mid-2019).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.33.12%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.33.12%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>LNG production, infrastructure spend and a lift in non-mining investment are expected to push growth higher. The Australian economy would be deemed to be in good health if these outcomes can be achieved. While we think they are possible, they look a best case scenario and the risk is that growth outcomes undershoot the Bank’s forecasts. The Bank has upgraded its global growth forecasts on fiscal stimulus in the US.</p>
<p>Inflation is forecast to gradually rise. But core inflation is not expected to get back to target until 2018. The RBA sees headline inflation rising a little quicker because of price rises in fuel and tobacco. These forecasts look about right to us, but like the growth forecasts, the risks are skewed to the downside.</p>
<p>The Bank retains a temperate assessment on the labour market. Employment growth is forecast to basically run at a level that would see the unemployment rate crab sideways at 5 3⁄4 percent. Normally we would expect the unemployment rate to be falling if growth is running above trend. The GDP and unemployment rate forecasts are reconciled by the big contribution to growth that will come from LNG production which is not labour intensive and also a possible decline in underemployment.</p>
<p>The RBA has confused us a little with their assessment on non-mining business investment. In Lowe’s Statement on Tuesday, the Governor optimistically stated that, “some further pick-up in non-mining business investment is also expected.” The word “further” stood out to us because in our view we are yet to observe a meaningful lift in private non-mining investment. Today the RBA agreed with us by nothing that, “non- mining business investment has been weak for some time, despite the support provided by low interest rates and the earlier depreciation of the exchange rate. The outlook for non-mining business investment is relatively subdued in the near term”. We will await further clarity from Martin Place on this one.</p>
<p>Rate cuts look off the table for now given the strong growth in dwelling prices (largely Sydney and Melbourne) and the Bank’s relatively upbeat assessment of the economic outlook. Despite below target inflation, concerns around the further build-up of household debt and strong dwelling price growth mean that it would take a shift in the activity data for policy easing to come back onto the table. In our view, trends in the labour market are the one to watch. It would take a loss of momentum in job creation for Lowe to entertain the idea of taking the policy rate lower. We see rates on hold in 2017.</p>
<p>The risk, however, sits with easing while ever inflation is below target. </p>
<p><strong>RBA Key Views</strong></p>
<p>Terms-of-Trade. The terms of trade are expected to decline gradually over 2017, but are expected to remain above their recent trough and be higher than previously forecast.</p>
<p>Unemployment rate. Unemployment rate to basically trend sideways at 53⁄4% in 2017. But it is expected to edge lower over the forecast period.</p>
<p>World growth. Growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 have been revised a little higher reflecting the recent better data and the prospect of more stimulatory fiscal policy in the US.</p>
<p>Inflation. Inflationary pressures to be benign. Forecasts remained unchanged from November SMP. Inflation to gradually rise. But core inflation not expected to get back to target until 2018. Headline inflation rising a little quicker because of price rises in fuel and tobacco</p>
<p>Wages. Gradual recovery in wage growth from late 2017 assumes that some of the factors that have been weighing on wages will gradually dissipate.</p>
<p>Housing construction. The large amount of work in the pipeline should continue to support a high level of dwelling investment for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Dwelling Prices. Conditions in the housing market in Sydney and Melbourne strengthened over the second half of 2016, but they have remained relatively subdued elsewhere. Inflation in rents has eased to multi-decade lows.</p>
<p>Australia’s GDP. The pace of growth picks up from 2%pa mid- 2017 to an above-trend 3% by year end. Its forecasts to remain above trend throughout the rest of the forecast period. .</p>
<p>Fiscal policy. Little change to the forecasts of the consolidated deficit in 2016/17 of around 3 per cent of GDP which implies a modest stimulus to growth.</p>
<p>Oil prices. Higher oil prices should oil are expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the period ahead. .</p>
<p><strong>CBA’s View</strong></p>
<p>The terms of trade are expected to drift lower over 2017 due to a pullback in commodity prices. But we have seen the low point for the cycle.</p>
<p>The unemployment should grind a little lower over 2017. Some job losses still to come out of the resources sector as the last of the major projects finish. NSW and Vic to have the strongest labour markets.</p>
<p>Global growth to lift a little to around 3 1⁄4 percent in 2017. Advanced economies, like the US &amp; Canada, likely to have above trend growth. China growth to firm at around 6.8 percent. UK economy to slow under Brexit impact and Eurozone growth to be similar to 2016.</p>
<p>Underlying CPI to remain below the RBA target band (2-3 percent) in 2017. Headline inflation to within the target band in H1 2017. Weak wages growth is keeping a lid on domestic inflation while tradables inflation is weak due the AUD holding up in the mid-USD0.70s.</p>
<p>Wages growth remains feeble, even with firmer commodity prices. Wages growth unlikely to materially lift labour market underutilisation falls. Job security concerns remain elevated and are also keeping a lid on wages growth.</p>
<p>Building approvals have peaked for the cycle and will continue to taper off over 2017. There is a significant pipeline of dwellings yet-to- commenced and completed. Commencements to be a robust 210k in 2017, slightly down from 220k in 2016. Alterations and additions spending likely to gradually rise.</p>
<p>Dwelling price growth is expected to moderate over 2017. Varied price growth across different regions to continue. Affordability remains a significant problem for low and middle income households. An increase in supply to stem dwelling price growth.</p>
<p>We expect the economy to grow by 2.4 percent in 2016 and 2.6 percent in 2017. Net exports, public investment and household spending to lift growth. This is partly offset by a drag from business investment.</p>
<p>Fiscal pressures to remain on Federal Budget and reform is slow and elongated. Public capex to lift. S&amp;P have put Australia’s AAA credit rating on negative outlook due to budget deficits.</p>
<p>Oil prices to drift a little lower which supports consumer spending. But because Australia is a net energy exporter, lower oil prices are a negative for terms of trade. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.31.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/10/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-10%20at%201.31.44%20PM.png" alt="" width="750" height="273"></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted </em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905"><span class="s2"><em>here</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Rate cuts off the table given strong growth in dwelling prices: Gareth Aird

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<p>The following charts describes what the Reserve Bank of Australia knows about Australia's economy especially GDP growth and inflation:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-4.jpg" alt=""></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA's January chart pack gives insight to Australian GDP growth and inflation

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">It's become traditional at this time of year for the media to mention all the potential gloom and risks facing the economy - the auto assembly industry shutting down is an old favourite, and resources construction declining, of course.</span></h3>
<p>Thing is, we've known about these issues for aeons now.  </p>
<p>What is rarely mentioned is that if the all of the downside events do play out the declining Aussie dollar would bear the brunt of the adjustment, quickly declining to 40 to 50 cents.</p>
<p>Given that the Reserve Bank seems unwilling to cut interest rates further, a strong increase in business investment over the next couple of years admittedly doesn't seem all that probable. </p>
<p>Regardless, nothing is all good or all bad, and here are a few possible upside risks for the economy.</p>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1 - Manufacturing jobs increase </strong></span></p>
<p>The car industry will see some manufacturing jobs go this year. Still, manufacturing employment soared by +102,000 last year, and the PMI gauge is in positive territory too. Any more to come where this came from with the lower dollar?</p>
</div>
<div id="post-body-153697409885239923" class="post-body entry-content"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/09/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Mining investment bust ends</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>Commodity prices soared by 45 percent last year, and bulk commodities ripped higher by 145 percent, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the nadir is in sooner than expected, possibly before the calendar year is out.   </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - LNG price increases 50pc</span></strong></div>
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<div>LNG export volumes are forecast by Treasury to triple between 2015 and 2021. </div>
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<div>The Henry Hub natural gas spot prices is up by more than 75 percent from one year ago, and there could be more to come yet as oil prices rebound. </div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5 - Property prices rise 12pc in 2017, unleashing a wealth effect</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>SQM Research see strong price gains nationally as possible, with prices in Sydney to rise by as much as 18 percent.</div>
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<div><span><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: SQM Research</span></em></span></div>
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<div>The wealth effect on household expenditure doesn't seem all that likely, but stranger things have happened, especially with household wealth passing a record $9 trillion last year.<br><br>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">6 - Infrastructure booms</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>The NSW state government has zero net debt for the first time on record on the back of the biggest stamp duty boom in Australia's history, which should fund some serious infrastructure investment. </div>
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<div><span>Nationally, an infrastructure boom could be underway...</span></div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">7 - China unleashes its capital account</span></strong></span></div>
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<div>China has a rapidly urbanising population of 1.4 billion. If the capital account ever gets unleashed to buy international assets in earnest... well, there are only 24 million of us...</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 - Tourism &amp; education boom</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>Tourism and international student arrivals are already booming, and arrivals could rise 10 to 15 per cent over the next year following a streamlining of student visa rules, helping to send annual population growth back towards 450,000 per annum. Chinese visitor spend is also already exploding. <br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">9 - Global growth accelerates, Australian GDP to above 5 percent</span></strong>
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<div>The Trump victory becomes a global turning point, and a combination of expansionary policy overseas and a revival of the animal spirits sees Australia's GDP growth accelerate to above 5 percent.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div>We won't see all of these unfold of course, but four or five of them could easily play out. </div>
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<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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Nine upside risks to the Australian economy in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<p>Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe December 2016 RBA statement.</p>
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<p>At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.</p>
<p>The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Labour market conditions in the advanced economies have improved over the past year. Economic conditions in China have steadied, supported by growth in infrastructure and property construction, although medium-term risks to growth remain. Inflation remains below most central banks’ targets, although headline inflation rates have increased recently. Globally, the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time.</p>
<p>Commodity prices have risen over the course of this year, reflecting both stronger demand and cut-backs in supply in some countries. The higher commodity prices have supported a rise in Australia’s terms of trade, although they remain much lower than they have been in recent years. The higher prices are providing a boost to national income.</p>
<p>Financial markets are functioning effectively. Government bond yields have risen further with the adjustment having been orderly. Funding costs for some borrowers have also risen, but remain low. Globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.</p>
<p>In Australia, the economy is continuing its transition following the mining investment boom. Some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely, before it picks up again. Further increases in exports of resources are expected as completed projects come on line. The outlook for business investment remains subdued, although measures of business sentiment remain above average.</p>
<p>Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed. The unemployment rate has declined this year, although some measures of labour underutilisation are little changed. There continues to be considerable variation in employment outcomes across the country. Part-time employment has been growing strongly, but employment growth overall has slowed. The forward-looking indicators point to continued expansion in employment in the near term.</p>
<p>Inflation remains quite low. The continuing subdued growth in labour costs means that inflation is expected to remain low for some time, before returning to more normal levels.</p>
<p>Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 has been helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are assisting the economy to make the necessary adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.</p>
<p>Conditions in the housing market have strengthened overall, although they vary considerably around the country. In some markets, prices are rising briskly, while in others they are declining. Housing credit has picked up a little, although turnover of established dwellings is lower than it was a year ago. Supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards and some lenders are taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities. Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades.</p>
<p>Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy earlier in the year, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.</p>
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Cautious approach by lenders noted by Governor Philip Lowe December 2016 RBA statement

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia has a new “two-speed” economy that comprises: (i) NSW and Victoria (driven largely by Sydney and Melbourne); and (ii) the rest of Australia.</p>
<p>The size and relative strength of the NSW and Victorian economies means that economic data presented at the national level is masking weakness throughout the rest of Australia.</p>
<p>Economic activity in NSW and Victoria, along with strong dwelling price growth in Sydney and Melbourne, is likely to see the RBA sit on the sidelines. But the rest of Australia could probably do with more policy easing. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.22.22%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.22.22%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>During the mining investment boom it was fashionable to talk about Australia’s “two- speed” economy. Surging commodity prices drove a spectacular lift in activity in the resources sector that sent the WA, QLD and NT economies into full blown growth mode.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.23.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.23.31%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Meanwhile, relatively high interest rates (compared to other advanced economies) and a strong AUD weighed heavily on the rest of Australia. As such, the term “two-speed” was coined to characterise the Australian economy. </p>
<p>Fast forward some six years and Australia yet again finds itself with a “two-speed” economy. But this time it’s NSW and Victoria that are driving demand and employment growth while the rest of Australia is feeling the pinch (chart 1). In fact, it’s largely Sydney and Melbourne propping up national outcomes.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.24.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.24.46%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Capacity utilisation is high in Australia’s two largest cities and demand growth is strong, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates. As a result, the NSW and Victorian economies have performed much better than the rest of Australia. </p>
<p>The big influence that NSW and Victoria have on the national figures means that pretty soft conditions throughout the rest of Australia have flown under the radar. In fact, economic outcomes in most regions of Australia are probably weaker than the national figures are suggesting unless you’re in Sydney or Melbourne. There are some exceptions, notably the ACT, but the generalisation holds for most places. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.25.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.25.47%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>In this note we look at how the Australian economy is faring on the new “two-speed” basis. We slice the economy into two pieces – (i) NSW &amp; Victoria (termed VicNSW); and (ii) the rest of Australia (termed ROA). For dwelling prices that are published on a capital city basis we split the data between Sydney &amp; Melbourne (SydMel) and the remaining capital cities (ROA). Basically we are trying gauge how the rest of the Australian economy is going when you strip out NSW and Victoria (or Sydney and Melbourne). Of course, it can be argued that if you exclude the strongest parts then all you are left with is the weakest bits. But that is precisely the point. We want to better understand how the rest of the Australian economy is going outside of NSW and Victoria. </p>
<p>The numbers – setting the scene.</p>
<p>To understand what we are analysing it makes sense to briefly look at the size of our two pieces. By Gross State Product (GSP), which is effectively output, NSW is worth 32% of the national pie and Victoria 221⁄2%. So our VicNSW economy is worth 541⁄2% of the national economy which leaves the ROA comprising 451⁄2% (chart 2). By population, NSW has 32% of Australia’s residents and Victoria clocks in at 25%. This leaves 43% of people residing in the ROA. By capital city, 64% of people who live in NSW are in Sydney and 75% of Victoria’s residents are in Melbourne. For the ROA, 62% of people are in the capital cities (chart 3). So our VicNSW and ROA split </p>
<p>Population growth</p>
<p>We kick off with population growth because it heavily influences aggregate growth rates like output and employment. The latest figures show that in the year to QI 2016, population growth in VicNSW was running at 1.6% while it was growing at 1.1% for the ROA (charts 4 and 5). This is a material difference. It largely reflects two forces (i) interstate migration, in particular from WA and SA to Victoria due to a lack of job opportunities; and (ii) a significant proportion of overseas migrants settling in either Sydney or Melbourne.</p>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.26.53%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>We need to keep the population growth rates of VicNSW and ROA in mind when looking at the economic data because the ROA is at a “handicap” of about 0.5%pa. Put another way, if the ROA is clocking in at 0.5%pa less than VicNSW for growth rates then performance per capita is effectively the same. We consider this to be important because differing population growth rates can give a misleading impression of economic performance. And per capita measures are a better barometer for gauging changes in living standards (see here). As our analysis shows, even accounting for the 0.5%pa difference in population growth, VicNSW is performing far better than the ROA. </p>
<p>State Final Demand</p>
<p>State Final Demand (SFD) is basically the sum of household and government expenditure and investment. It does not include exports and is therefore a better measure of demand (i.e. the total value of goods and services that are sold domestically) than GSP which includes exports.</p>
<p>The data shows that demand growth has been strong in VicNSW while it has been contracting throughout the ROA since mid-2014 (chart 6). The decline in SFD throughout the ROA reflects falling business investment and weak consumption growth. SFD has been hit particularly hard in the mining regions of WA, QLD and NT where investment in the resources sector has fallen sharply (chart 7). SFD growth has been tepid in SA and Tas leaving the ACT as the only bright spot. All up, demand growth in the ROA is consistent with very soft economies.</p>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.27.49%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Strong demand growth in VicNSW has been assisted by the positive wealth effect from rising dwelling prices. Higher asset prices have supported household consumption growth and dwelling investment in Australia’s two largest states. These two economies did not experience a downturn in mining investment and were able to benefit from both the fall in interest rates and the AUD. </p>
<p>Employment growth</p>
<p>There is plenty of evidence of our new “two-speed” economy in the labour market data. Jobs growth has slowed nationally. But the slowdown in jobs growth for the ROA has been sharp. In fact, there has been a contraction in the level of employment for the ROA through the year to October (chart 8). The number of people working in the ROA has fallen by 40k over the past year. The reality is that jobs growth in Australia has been driven by NSW and Victoria over the past year. For the ROA, the labour market is incredibly weak. In some states, conditions in the labour market are commensurate with a recession, particularly WA (chart 9). </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.28.56%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.28.56%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Unemployment rate</p>
<p>The national unemployment rate has been trending down over the past year thanks to a decline in participation. But when we look at the economy through our “two- speed” lens it becomes apparent that the unemployment rate for the ROA has been stuck above 6% for two years (chart 10). It has basically trended sideways since mid-2015 while the unemployment rate has been falling in VicNSW. A disappointing story for the ROA which reflects a decline in the level of employment offset by a fall in participation. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.30.13%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.30.13%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Of course new jobs have been “created” in the jurisdictions that comprise ROA. But there have also been a lot of job losses, primarily in the mining and manufacturing sectors. To be fair to our Territories, the unemployment rate is low in the ACT and NT. But it’s well above the level associated with full employment (considered to be around 5%) in QLD, SA, WA and Tasmania (chart 11).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.31.13%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.31.13%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>In our view, the jobless rate for the ROA is likely to sit a touch above 6.0% over the next six months. It will continue to be a different story in VicNSW and we see the unemployment rate holding at around 51⁄4%. A big lift in public investment in NSW should keep the unemployment rate anchored around 5%. </p>
<p>It’s worth noting here that the unemployment rate is not proving as useful as usual to determine the amount of slack in the labour market. That’s because underemployment has bene rising while the unemployment rate has been falling due to the casualisation of the workforce (see here). As a result, wages growth has been easing.  </p>
<p>Business investment </p>
<p>Investment in VicNSW has trended up recently because of a lift in capex in NSW. But for the ROA business investment is down 17.2% through the year to QII 2016 (chart 12). The big decline has been driven by a huge fall in spending in QLD and WA because of the downturn in mining capex. There has also been a decline in capex in SA, Tas, and NT. For the ROA, only the ACT has posted a lift in business investment. This is a pretty poor result considering the stimulus that has come through from lower interest rates and a lower AUD. It should be a concern to policymakers.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.32.13%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.32.13%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>We expect business investment to continue to decline in the ROA as resource related projects are completed. The pace of the downturn, however, will start to slow as the worst of the downturn in mining capex is now behind us. The outlook for the non- mining part of the economy remains mixed. Our forecasts have non-mining capex lifting a little over 2016/17 which should see VicNSW post a further modest lift in business investment. </p>
<p>Dwelling Prices</p>
<p>National dwelling prices have risen substantially over the past 31⁄2 years. But the data shows that the lift in dwelling prices has largely been a Sydney and Melbourne story (chart 13). Demand for housing has been strong in Australia’s two largest cities, driven by a variety of factors which include: (i) interest rate cuts; (ii) a high level of investor demand; (ii) foreign investment; (iii) strong population growth; and (iv) some supply issues (particularly in Sydney).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.33.24%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.33.24%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>For the ROA, however, dwelling price growth has been much more modest. In fact, dwelling prices have been falling for a few years in Perth (chart 14). Price rises in most of the other capital cities have been significantly lower than those in Sydney in Melbourne.</p>
<p>Commentators often make the mistake of generalising about dwelling prices in Australia and assume that the housing market is homogeneous. But the data shows that there is a significant divergence between price growth across Australia’s capital cities. </p>
<p>Building approvals</p>
<p>Strong dwelling price growth in Sydney and Melbourne has translated into a big lift in building approvals, particularly for apartments. For the ROA, however, building approvals have eased. On a rolling annual total basis dwelling approvals are down 7.1%pa for the ROA (chart 15). There is a bit of a multispeed story for approvals in the ROA. There has been a big fall in approvals in WA as vacancy rates rise and dwelling prices fall. Approvals in QLD have actually been quite strong and a big lift in apartment supply will hit the Brisbane market over the next few years. But when we look at the ROA as a collective, dwelling investment will cool. For VicNSW, however, there is still a lot of residential construction in the pipeline. The supply response is welcome given the big lift in dwelling prices. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.35.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-22%20at%2010.35.04%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Are there implications for monetary policy?</p>
<p>The RBA has recently shifted from an implied easing bias to a neutral tone. And market pricing for a rate cut has receded (chart 16). We think the RBA’s reluctance to ease policy further is generally related to the strength of the NSW and Victorian economies, in particular the exceptionally strong housing markets of Sydney and </p>
<p>Melbourne, and the lift in commodity prices. But the economic data suggests that the ROA could do with more policy easing.</p>
<p>Last week’s wages and employment data were weak. Normally, softness in the labour market and below-target inflation would imply that policy easing is forthcoming. A lower cash rate would, among other things, push the AUD down which would boost activity in Australia’s tradables sector. But clearly the RBA has a degree of discomfort at the strength of dwelling price growth in Sydney and Melbourne that has taken a near term rate cut off the table.</p>
<p>The lesson here is that the new “two-speed” economy means that current monetary policy settings are likely to be suboptimal for the ROA outside of Sydney and Melbourne. If the Sydney and Melbourne property markets stall or falter then policy easing will probably come back onto the agenda because the ROA could do with more stimulus. Of course that stimulus could also come via fiscal policy as we have previously argued (see here). But that’s a conversation for another day. </p>
<em><span>Gareth Aird is e</span><span>conomist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em>
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Our new two-speed economy – how does it look? CBA's Gareth Aird

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
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<p>The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac- Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from +0.63 percent in September to +0.43 percent in October. </p>
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<p>The October reading is the third consecutive above trend result and follows fifteen months of persistent below trend reads. Although the growth rate has slowed a little, it is still a clear positive signal for the near term economic outlook. That signal is broadly consistent with Westpac’s forecast for growth to hold around a 3 percent pace over the course of this year and to lift to 3.3 percent in 2017.</p>
<p><span>Westpac has recently lifted its growth forecast for 2017 from 3 percent to 3.3 percent. That reflects the recent improvement in the terms of trade following the sustained boost in bulk commodity prices; a more confident assessment of the sustainability of the residential construction cycle and continuing evidence </span>of a strong outlook for growth in both resource and services exports.</p>
<p><span>The Leading Index growth rate has lifted over the last six months from a 0.34 percent below trend reading in May to the current 0.43% above trend result. </span></p>
<p><span>Offshore factors continue to dominate the sources of improvement in the Index. Of the net 77 basis points in improvement over the last six months, three of the four externally driven components contributed 90 basis points – commodity prices (45 basis points); US industrial production (25 basis points); and a steepening yield curve (25 basis points). The other component of the Index which is heavily influenced by global forces (ASX 200) actually subtracted 8 basis points from the overall movement over the six months. Of course we can expect another story in November following the post-election boom in the share market.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-16%20at%2010.42.39%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p>Contributions from the domestic components of the Index were mixed over the six month period. Aggregate hours worked have improved, contributing 31 basis points to the lift. However, confidence measures have weighed on the Index. The Westpac-MI Consumer Expectations Index subtracted 14 basis points and the Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations Index subtracted 13 basis points. A slowdown in dwelling approvals has also seen this component subtract 13 basis points.</p>
<p><span>The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 6. There is virtually no chance of a policy move coming from that meeting. </span></p>
<p><span>The minutes from the November meeting signalled that the Bank is in a ‘wait and see’ mode. There was an air of uncertainty around both the housing market and the labour market. Considerable time will be required before the picture around both becomes clearer. From our perspective we expect stability in the housing market and some gradual pick-up in labour market conditions as stronger overall growth lifts it out of the current ‘slow patch’. </span></p>
<p><span>Consequently, we expect that a central bank, which must be questioning the effectiveness of yet more monetary stimulus, will be unlikely to see the need to adjust policy throughout the entire run of 2017. </span></p>
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<p><span><span><em>BILL EVANS</em></span><em> is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></span></p>
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No chance of a policy move from RBA in December: Westpac's Bill Evans

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.3 percent to a 7-week high of 118.2 in the week to November 13.</p>
<p>Confidence remains above the average of 113.0 since 2014.</p>
<p><span>The minutes from the November 1 Board meeting shows that the Reserve Bank has become more alert to inflation risks. </span></p>
<p><span>The consumer confidence figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending. The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings. </span></p>
<p><span>What does it all mean?</span></p>
<p>Aussie consumers are unfazed by the US election result. Consumer confidence edged to 7-week highs in the latest week, no doubt boosted by strong gains on the Australian sharemarket late in the week. Interestingly respondents believe that the economic outlook over the medium term has improved.</p>
<p>There is a clear change in the Reserve Bank’s attitude to inflation. The latest Board minutes highlight the recent lift in commodity prices as well as perceptions that economic growth for advanced nations could exceed “potential growth”. As such the Reserve Bank concludes that “risks to the global inflation outlook were more balanced than they had been for some time.” Similarly Board members believe that Australian underlying inflation is “expected to return to more normal levels over time.”</p>
<p>Admittedly the Reserve Bank isn’t flashing warning signs on growth and inflation. But it should also be noted that in the period since the Reserve Bank Board meeting there has been the election of a new US President with growth-focussed economic policies. Metal and mining prices and bond yields have soared.</p>
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<p>Simply interest rate settings are likely to remain stable until well into 2017.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Consumer confidence</p>
<p><span></span><span>The </span><span>ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating </span><span>rose by 0.3 percent to 118.2 in the week to November 13.</span></p>
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<p><span>Confidence is up 2.0 percent over the year and above the average of 113.0 since 2014. </span></p>
<p><span>Two of five components of the index rose in the latest week.</span></p>
<ul>
<li> The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +11 to +10; </li>
<li> The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +28 to +27;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from +5 to+6;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +10 to +13;</li>
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<p><span></span><span>The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was </span><span>steady </span><span>at +35. </span><span></span><span>In addition the inflation expectation 2 years ahead rose from 3.8 percent to 3.9 percent.</span></p>
<p><span>Reserve Bank Board minutes:</span></p>
<p>“Members noted that assessing conditions in the housing market had become more complicated. While overall conditions had eased relative to 2015, some indicators had strengthened over the previous few months. In particular, housing price growth had picked up noticeably in Sydney and Melbourne. However, housing turnover and growth in housing credit both remained lower than a year earlier, consistent with the supervisory measures that had been taken to tighten lending standards and the more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. In addition, a considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next few years, particularly in the eastern capital cities, and growth in rents in the September quarter was the slowest for some decades.”</p>
<p>“Considerable uncertainty remained about the strength of labour market conditions and the implications for labour cost growth.”</p>
<p> “Members observed that some indicators of domestic inflation cost pressures, such as growth in the wage price index, had stabilised, albeit at low levels, and that underlying inflation was expected to return to more normal levels over time. The overall assessment was that the risks around the inflation forecast were broadly balanced.”</p>
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<div class="column">“Higher commodity prices and expectations that growth in the major advanced economies would exceed potential growth suggested that the risks to the global inflation outlook were more balanced than they had been for some time.”</div>
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<div class="column">“Members commenced their discussion of the domestic economy by considering how outcomes over recent years had differed from earlier forecasts, noting that the differences for key variables, including inflation, the unemployment rate and GDP growth, had been modest by historical standards.”</div>
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<div class="column">“Members noted that there was significant uncertainty about the outlook for consumption growth given uncertainty about households' expectations of their income growth and the influence of these expectations on their spending and saving decisions. This was particularly pronounced for households with significant debt.”</div>
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<div class="column">What is the importance of the economic data?</div>
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<div class="column">The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.<br><p>The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sidelines for an extended period.</div>
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<div class="column">Could the next move in interest rates be a rate hike rather than a rate cut? It’s important not to get too far ahead of ourselves. Inflation is still historically low. And while there is speculation of growth-focussed policies in the US, they haven’t been fleshed out. However you get a sense that inflation has reached an inflexion point. </div>
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<div class="column"><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></div>
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Happy Aussies, Reserve Bank on inflation watch: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 1.1 percent in November from 102.4 in October to 101.3 in November.</p>
<p>The Index continues to hold in a very tight band. Over the last six months the Index has held within the range of 99.1 to 102.4.</p>
<p>However if you compare the average level during this period with the average over the comparable six month period in 2015 there has been a clear lift in the Index of 4.7 percent.</p>
<p>Most of that improvement has been in the components of the Index that measure expectations which are up by an average of 7.3 percent on last year, whereas the components which measure current conditions have increased by only 1.2 percent.</p>
<p>Developments of note over the month have included weakness in the share market as investors dealt with the uncertainties around the US election (ASX down by 4.4 percent since the October survey); a spectacular surge in coking coal prices (spot prices are up around 150 percent since August); a disappointing jobs report (annual employment growth slowing to 1.4 percent); and an unchanged rate decision from the Reserve Bank.</p>
<p>Markets had been giving a decent chance to a November rate cut in earlier months so the fall in confidence amongst respondents holding a mortgage of 3.1 percent was somewhat understandable.</p>
<p>Although down 3.4 percent in the latest month the lift in confidence in Queensland – the ‘Sunshine and Coal’ state – over the year has been spectacular. The Queensland index has lifted by 15.9 percent since last November compared to falls in the other major states – NSW (–2.6 percent); Victoria (–5.4 percent) and WA (–7.2 percent).</p>
<p>Disappointment in the jobs market has been signalled in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Unemployment Expectations. The Index rose by 1.4 percent from 138.2 to 140.2. It is now up by 2.9 percent over the last six months and slightly above the level a year ago. Recall that higher reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months and hence mark a deterioration.</p>
<p>Four of the five components of the Index fell slightly in the month. Both measures of family finances were down a little – the sub- index tracking views on ‘family finances compared to year ago’ fell by 1.3 percent while the sub-index tracking expectations for finances over the next 12 months fell by 0.8 percent. ‘Economic conditions over the next 12 months’ increased by 0.6 percent but ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ fell by 1.4 percent.</p>
<p>In a slight disappointment for the outlook for Xmas spending there was a 2.4 percent fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index. </p>
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<p><span>In November we traditionally gauge respondents’ Christmas spending intentions. The question is “Do you think that you will spend less, about the same, or more on Christmas gifts compared to last year?” Last year we recorded a net balance – the proportion expecting to spend more minus the proportion expecting to spend less – of minus 13 percent. This year the net balance has declined to minus 20.1 percent. That is around the average since we started asking the question in 2009. That is a disappointing result given the promising improvement in spending plans in 2015. </span></p>
<p><span>Confidence in housing has also deteriorated. The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell by 5.1 percent from 105.7 in October to 100.3 in November. We saw significant falls in NSW; Victoria; and Queensland. </span></p>
<p><span>Despite confidence in housing deteriorating house price expectations continue to rise. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations increased by 1.3 percent to be up 23 percent on a year ago and reach its highest level since July 2015. </span></p>
<p><span>The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 6. There is little chance of any change in rates at this meeting. The key issue is whether the Bank decides to further cut rates in 2017. Whereas lower than expected inflation was the driver of the two cuts in 2016 the decisions in 2017 will be determined </span>by developments in housing and labour markets.</p>
<p>Westpac is expecting economic growth and employment growth to lift in 2017 boosted by higher commodity prices; ongoing strong residential construction; and booming exports. While the pace of house price appreciation can be expected to slow the case for lower rates under those circumstances does not seem to be strong.</p>
<p><span>We expect rates to remain on hold in 2017. </span></p>
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<p><em>BILL EVANS</em><em> is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></p>
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Consumer sentiment dips a little, Christmas spending plans disappoint: Westpac's Bill Evans

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Readers will appreciate the strong link between inflation (the Consumer Price Index), Reserve Bank interest rate policy, and the Australian dollar.</p>
<p>Inflation has been stubbornly low. The RBA has a 2-3 percent target, but they have been missing that on the low side for an extended period. Wednesday’s release saw a 0.7 percent rise for the September quarter, still only an annual rate of 1.3-1.5 percent (depending on which volatile components get stripped out).</p>
<p>Nonetheless, that was roughly in line with expectations and certainly not as bad as it could have been. Markets reacted accordingly, sending the Aussie dollar roughly half a cent higher. That means a Melbourne Cup day rate cut by the RBA looks less likely.</p>
<p>But the interesting wrinkle is that a higher dollar puts downward pressure on deflation. Plus, the RBA has been quite explicit about being concerned about too high a dollar for export competitiveness. So it might actually suggest a cut early next year. Welcome to the weird world of modern macroeconomics.</p>
<p>Housing supply is also top of mind, with September new home sales to be released this week. </p>
<p>Showing concern about affordability and supply, NSW Finance Minister Dominic Perrottet floated a plan to move away from stamp duty to a land-tax-based system. </p>
<p>Stamp duties are an economic nightmare of a tax. They distort the balance between supply and demand – meaning people often don’t move when they otherwise would. Nothing ruins an economist’s day more than a misallocation of resource caused by a stupid policy. Land taxes, by contrast, are far more efficient: creating far less distortion for the same amount of revenue generated.</p>
<p>More needs to happen on the supply side to help solve the housing affordability crisis. My McKell Institute plan would gradually phase out negative gearing other than for new properties – and would make for a nice complement to stamp duty reform.</p>
<h2>All eyes on the US… election</h2>
<p>In the US, consumer confidence figures released this week with the Conference Board’s index dropping to 98.6 in October, down sharply from 103.5 in September.</p>
<p>The reason that this is so consequential is that consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of US demand. Weaker consumer confidence means the prospect of lower economic growth. That in turn could affect the Fed’s decision-making.</p>
<p>Right now there is some difference of opinion among members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that sets monetary policy. That may be in part due to some people campaigning for jobs in a Clinton White House – but it also partly reflects the genuinely complicated set of circumstances faced by advanced economies around the world.</p>
<p>Of course, the biggest news of all will come from the US Presidential election on November 8. Hillary Clinton appears almost certain to win – bookies are already paying out bets. There is also a strong possibility of Democrats winning back control of the Senate (the Upshot folks at the New York Times have it at 64% at the time of this writing).</p>
<p>That would be hugely consequential for the appointment of the next Supreme Court Justice. I will write more about this another time, but in a recent academic paper with Michaele Keane (from UNSW and Oxford) and Matthew Lilley (from Harvard) we showed that the ideological position and voting direction of a justice affects those of other justices. To give you a rough idea, we estimate that replacing the late Justice Scalia with Judge Merrick Garland (President Obama’s nominee) would make each other justice 5.1% more likely to vote liberal on a given case.</p>
<p>The US Presidential race is very important, but the Senate outcome matters, too.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Richard Holden is p</span>rofessor of economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Melbourne Cup day rate cut less likely

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sees housing finance as a smaller danger than in the past, judging by its latest Financial Stability Review, but we aren’t back to happy days just yet.</p>
<p>A number of economic indicators still show there’s cause for concern in the property market. </p>
<p>The review does acknowledge some problems in the apartment markets in Brisbane and Melbourne, but it sees major threats to the resilience of the Australian financial system overseas: examples are the rising debt levels in China, the low performance of European banks, the Brexit, and the impact of low milk prices on New Zealand farmers (with a possible feedback effect to Australian banks).</p>
<p>The review highlights Australian banks’ stronger capital buffers and compliance with toughened prudential standards from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). Because house price growth has moderated and mortgage borrowers are substantially ahead of their scheduled payments, the risk from mortgage lending is somewhat lower. </p>
<p>However, it’s surprising that the review doesn’t stress some aspects that are obvious.</p>
<p>What the RBA didn’t say</p>
<p>Although Australia hasn’t experienced the type of shock to the economy the United States did, due to the sub-prime mortgage crisis, there is substantial risk due to a large portion of mortgage loans being subject to interest-only periods of typically five years. Research for US home equity lines of credit finds the risk that people won’t be able to pay mortgage expenses increases substantially towards the end of flexible repayment terms, in particular during times of increasing lending standards.</p>
<p>Mortgage borrowers often have the expectation that they are able to refinance at the end of the interest-only term into a similar loan with a new interest-only period. However, this rollover is not possible in economic downturns when banks suddenly tighten their lending standards and and are likely to cut refinancing. </p>
<p>The RBA’s review shows that Australian banks have tightened their lending standards and have room for further tightening, but currently we do not see larger impacts on delinquencies. Current rates of people not being able to make their mortgage payments are low but may quickly change in an economic downturn. It’s also difficult to forecast whether this will change judging by medium- to long-term trends. </p>
<p>There might be other reasons why people might struggle to make their mortgage repayments. We have seen central banks following the European and US central banks in lowering interest rates and markets are expecting a reversal in the future. As most mortgage loans in Australia are at a floating rate this would imply that the largest relative payment increase will be to interest-only loans, should the RBA follow these leads. </p>
<p>In addition to this, Australia continues to enjoy low unemployment rates. This may change and lower the average income levels, putting more stress on people’s ability to pay mortgage loans.</p>
<p>Other risk factors at play in the property market</p>
<p>House prices continue to grow at annualised rates of approximately 10.2% and 9% in the largest cities Sydney and Melbourne. Housing price growth has slowed down, but prices are still increasing and new mortgages are underwritten based on house prices that are disengaged with national income levels. The growth rate continues to be above the historic averages and other developed economies that have experienced similar rate cuts.</p>
<p>Banks have relatively reduced interest only loans and high loan to valuation ratio (LVR) style loans. However, it is also clear that origins of high risk mortgages continue at relative high levels. </p>
<p>Australian Prudential Regulation, new mortgage loans for ADIs with greater than $1 bn of term loans</p>
<p>The fraction of interest-only loans has come down from 44% in December 2014 to 36% in March 2016. While this is a noticable decrease, more than a third of loans continue to be interest-only.</p>
<p>The RBA’s review argues that Australian mortgage borrowers are on average approximately two and a half years ahead of the scheduled payments. This argument does not take interest-only loans into account. </p>
<p>Prepayments are generally made into offset accounts which include a redraw facility and are generally used when new properties are used. In other words, these prepayments may be quickly depleted to increase leverage but also in situations when borrowers have difficulties making payments. </p>
<p>Dominance of housing loans on bank books</p>
<p>The largest problem of Australian banks remains the dominance of housing loans on bank books. Approximately 60% of total loans are for residential properties, and 36% of loans are business loans dominated by commercial real estate loans and loans to small and medium sized companies, which are often backed by the real estate of the business owner. </p>
<p>This over-concentration is the Achilles’ heel of the Australian banking system and hard to protect against. It’s a reflection of demand for bank loans in Australia and alternatives to bank lending available to large firms. </p>
<p>International financial markets may provide a solution, allowing banks to diversify and risk transfer via asset risk swaps. Unfortunately, these solutions have not been explored much in the past . The reluctance to do this is mostly based on the poor performance of overseas assets during the global financial crisis.</p>
<p>The RBA’s review further discusses the achievements under the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to limit the systemic risk of financial institutions via increased regulation and higher capital buffers. The review further notes that no Australian bank is of global systemic importance. </p>
<p>However this is not a reason for complacency as the failure of one of the largest Australian banks would lead to a great shock to the Australian economy. A further concentration in the banking industry would make bank products more expensive than they would be in a competitive system.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name"><span style="color: #333333;">Harry Scheule is a</span></span>ssociate professor, Finance, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/harry-scheule-3573" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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