Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

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The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30pm today - and rates were held again.
The banks of course continue to make their own moves, including cutting the rate for IO loans.
The central bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 16 meetings.
It is not the longest run of steady rates as there were 16 meetings (inclusive) between their August 2013 meeting and December 2014 where they held at 2.5 percent. There was another run of 16 meetings between July 2002 and October 2003 where rates were held at 4.75 percent.
The RBA will next meet in February 2018.
Almost all economists predicted a hold at the last meeting of the year.
Most don't foresee any change throughout 2018.
ANZ Research has suggested rates wont hike until 2019.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/7/ANZ.jpg" alt="">
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

RBA holds again for full year: RBA December rate decision

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A HashChing survey has found that 91 percent of broker believe interest rates will remain on hold in December.
Just five percent are expecting a drop.
A positive 83 percent of brokers surveyed suggested they don't believe the real estate bubble will burst in the next 12 months.
Nearly 65 percent of brokers said they believe most Australians are 100 percent truthful on their home loan applications, while 70 percent say that more than half of Australian homeowners request a lower interest rate when applying for a home loan.
One of the most standout figures in the survey was that over 63 percent of brokers don't think recent moves to moderate lending to investors and interest-only buyers has helped make property more accessible for first home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne.
HashChing coo Siobhan Hayden said that this month's survey results indicate that brokers are reasonably confident in the stability of the Australian housing market, and will be for the foreseeable future.
"This is despite the majority thinking that recent moves to make property more accessible for first home buyers are failing.
<div>
<div>"Interestingly, the majority of Australian borrowers are asking for a lower interest rate when applying for home loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"This indicates that despite the industry's recent digital disruption, brokers continue to play a pivotal role when it comes to negotiating adequate and fair deals for homeowners," she said. 
</div>
</div>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

RBA to hold in December: HashChing survey

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GUEST OBSERVER
For more than a year, we have seen the Reserve Bank of Australia leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.5%.
And while it made sense for the Board to leave the cash rate untouched until now given the level of economic uncertainty, things are starting to improve across the globe.
Indeed, over the last few months, we have seen significant improvements in both the domestic and global markets. Domestically, business conditions have shown signs of improvement, the unemployment rate has fallen to a low of 5.4%, and property price growth has started to stagnate across some markets in line with expectations. With that in mind, it is only fair to assume that next rate movement by the Reserve Bank of Australia could be up. When exactly rates will rise is very much undetermined. And while we don’t know when exactly the cash rate will rise, we know it won’t take off at breakneck speeds and home loan rates will continue to be lower for longer. Interestingly, our data shows the majority of Australians also believe interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future and will only steadily increase over the next 12 months. When asked what they thought would happen to interest rates throughout 2018, 52.5% of Australians said interest rates would rise, albeit quite slowly. Meanwhile, a further 27.8% said they expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold for another 12 months at least. The reality is, the cash rate will not remain at this level forever. It’s not a question of if, but when, the Board decides the time is right to lift the official cash rate from its current historically low setting. Of course, as and when rates do rise, it is important for borrowers to remember that mortgage rates are still low by long term standards. Furthermore, Australia’s lenders remain hungry for business, which is good news for anyone still yet to achieve their home ownership goals.
JOHN FLAVELL is the chief executive officer of Mortgage Choice.
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Rate rises now inevitable - it’s just a question of when: John Flavell

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The latest RBA Chart Pack that summarises macroeconomic and financial market trends in Australia has been released.
It illustrates the data presented to the board ahead of their Cup Day rate decision.
The charts includes the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/interest-rates" target="_blank">owner occupier variable home loan rates</a> over the past decade.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/10/Lending.jpg" alt="">
There were charts showing <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/household-sector" target="_blank">household finances</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/10/Household.jpg" alt="">
There's even insights into <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/world-economy" target="_blank">the Chinese residential property market</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/10/China2.jpg" alt="">
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Three charts that helped the RBA make its Cup Day decision

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Guest Observer
As expected the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%.
There are very few significant changes in the Governor’s statement relative to the statement in October.
On the positive side, the Governor has chosen to point out that prospects for non-mining business investment have improved “with the forward looking indicators being more positive than they have been for some time”.
Since the October meeting, there have been two significant retail sales reports. The report for August showed retail sales contracting by 0.6% and July sales being revised down to –0.2%. The report for September showed no bounce back from those disappointing results with sales being reported as flat. We were interested in how the Governor would assess the outlook for household consumption. In the event, all he did was point out that it was “one continuing source of uncertainty”.
There was also a disappointing inflation report since the last meeting. Underlying inflation printed 0.35% for the September quarter compared to market expectations of 0.5%. It now seems highly unlikely that underlying inflation will reach the 2% for 2017 that the Bank has been forecasting. Nevertheless, the statement only notes that “inflation remains low and is likely to remain so for some time”. However, the Governor repeats the Bank’s central forecast for “inflation to pick up gradually as the economy strengthens”.
There has also been clear further deterioration in the Sydney housing market. At this stage, the Bank is comfortable to note that “housing market conditions have eased further in Sydney”, without speculating about future dynamics. It will give the Governor considerable comfort to be able to note “housing prices have shown little change over recent months”.
Despite a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% with annual jobs growth lifting to 3.1%, the Governor has chosen to maintain his measured description of the labour market, “the labour market has continued to strengthen”. He also repeats that some lift in wages growth can be expected over time. While we expect that the forecasts for the unemployment rate in Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy will remain at 5.5%, there is a chance that the forecast for 2019 will be reduced to 5.25%.
 
This morning we released a note outlining our expectations for the Bank’s growth forecasts, which will be released on November 10. We expect the Bank to retain its growth forecasts from the August Statement on Monetary Policy at 3.25% in 2018, and 3.5% in 2019. The Governor notes that “the central forecast is for GDP growth to pick up and to average around 3% over the next few years”.
Since the last Board meeting, the AUD had depreciated from USD 0.788 to USD 0.768. Despite this welcome move, the Bank repeats its warning that “an appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast”.
Until recently, many forecasters were expecting the Bank to adopt a tightening bias in the November statement. Westpac was not of that view. Today’s statement repeats the neutral bias language of recent statements.
Conclusion
There remains a difference of opinion between us and the Bank on the growth and inflation outlook. The Bank is expecting above-trend growth next year despite uncertainty around the household sector and with the associated closing of the output gap along and a gradual move towards full employment, they will continue to forecast inflation moving back to 2½ per cent in 2019.
We accept that if that dynamic does come to pass, then the Bank will see opportunity to raise rates next year. However, our growth outlook is much flatter, particularly given our view on household incomes and wages, we do not expect that the need will arise to raise rates in 2018.
To read the full RBA report <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-23" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">click here</a>.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2017/2017-05-02" target="_blank">.</a>
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Very few significant changes in RBA outlook: Westpac's Bill Evans

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All 30 panelists in the monthly Finder.com.au survey of the RBA rate decision suggested the central bank will hold at the November 2017 meeting.
There reasons are below:
Jordan​ ​Eliseo,​ ​ABC​ ​Bullion:​ ​(Hold)​ "Despite​ ​concerns​ ​about​ ​a​ ​slowdown​ ​in​ ​retail​ ​sales​ ​growth over​ ​the​ ​last​ ​few​ ​months​ ​-​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​still​ ​appear​ ​confident​ ​in​ ​the​ ​outlook​ ​for​ ​the​ ​Australian economy,​ ​though​ ​their​ ​rhetoric​ ​around​ ​tightening​ ​policy​ ​has​ ​changed​ ​appropriately.​ ​We​ ​still see​ ​the​ ​next​ ​move​ ​as​ ​down,​ ​but​ ​it​ ​will​ ​not​ ​come​ ​until​ ​Q1​ ​2018​ ​at​ ​the​ ​earliest." 
Tim​ ​Nelson,​ ​AGL​ ​Energy:​ ​(Hold)​ "Little​ ​change​ ​in​ ​conditions." 
Shane​ ​Oliver,​ ​AMP​ ​Capital:​ ​(Hold)​ "RBA​ ​expectations​ ​for​ ​stronger​ ​growth​ ​ahead,​ ​high​ ​levels of​ ​business​ ​confidence​ ​and​ ​strong​ ​employment​ ​growth​ ​all​ ​argue​ ​against​ ​a​ ​rate​ ​cut.​ ​But​ ​a slowdown​ ​in​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​cycle,​ ​risks​ ​around​ ​consumer​ ​spending,​ ​weak​ ​wages​ ​growth​ ​and inflation​ ​and​ ​the​ ​too​ ​high​ ​Australian​ ​dollar​ ​argue​ ​against​ ​a​ ​rate​ ​hike.​ ​So​ ​the​ ​most​ ​likely outcome​ ​is​ ​rates​ ​remaining​ ​on​ ​hold​ ​-​ ​out​ ​to​ ​late​ ​2017​ ​at​ ​least." 
Paul​ ​Dales,​ ​Capital​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​economy​ ​and​ ​inflation​ ​are​ ​not​ ​strong​ ​enough​ ​to warrant​ ​higher​ ​interest​ ​rates,​ ​but​ ​nor​ ​are​ ​they​ ​weak​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​justify​ ​lower​ ​interest​ ​rates.​ ​" 
Michael​ ​Blythe,​ ​CBA:​ ​(Hold)​ "Low​ ​inflation​ ​means​ ​[there​ ​is]​ ​no​ ​rush​ ​to​ ​act." 
Peter​ ​Gilmore,​ ​Gateway​ ​Credit​ ​Union:​ ​(Hold)​ "Looks​ ​like​ ​we​ ​are​ ​in​ ​an​ ​inflation​ ​trap." 
Scott​ ​Morgan,​ ​Greater​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "Domestic​ ​economic​ ​data​ ​is​ ​mixed​ ​and​ ​does​ ​not​ ​yet support​ ​a​ ​move." 
Mark​ ​Brimble,​ ​Griffith​ ​Uni:​ ​(Hold)​ "Economy​ ​is​ ​still​ ​struggling​ ​to​ ​gather​ ​any​ ​meaningful moment." 
Shane​ ​Garrett,​ ​Housing​ ​Industry​ ​Association:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"No​ ​need​ ​to​ ​increase​ ​rates​ ​at​ ​this​ ​time: economic​ ​growth​ ​has​ ​to​ ​have​ ​enough​ ​space​ ​to​ ​recover​ ​to​ ​its​ ​trend​ ​rate​ ​and​ ​inflationary pressures​ ​are​ ​weaker​ ​than​ ​expected." 
Paul​ ​Bloxham,​ ​HSBC:​ ​(Hold)​ "Inflation​ ​is​ ​still​ ​below​ ​target." 
Alex​ ​Joiner,​ ​IFM​ ​Investors:​ ​(Hold)​ "Economic​ ​signals​ ​are​ ​mixed,​ ​especially​ ​outside​ ​the​ ​labour market.​ ​Added​ ​to​ ​this​ ​inflationary​ ​pressures​ ​are​ ​subdued​ ​and​ ​wages​ ​growth​ ​are​ ​anticipated​ ​to remain​ ​soft." 
Michael​ ​Witts,​ ​ING​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA​ ​is​ ​comfortable​ ​with​ ​the​ ​current​ ​setting​ ​of​ ​rates​ ​and does​ ​not​ ​appear​ ​to​ ​be​ ​in​ ​a​ ​rush​ ​to​ ​change​ ​the​ ​policy​ ​settings.​ ​the​ ​low​ ​CPI​ ​print​ ​supports​ ​a further​ ​extension​ ​of​ ​stable​ ​rates." 
Leanne​ ​Pilkington,​ ​Laing+Simmons:​ ​(Hold)​ "Recent​ ​data​ ​pointing​ ​to​ ​flat​ ​price​ ​growth​ ​and subdued​ ​clearance​ ​rates​ ​reinforce​ ​the​ ​case​ ​for​ ​a​ ​hold​ ​decision.​ ​Of​ ​course,​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market is​ ​more​ ​complicated​ ​than​ ​this,​ ​with​ ​different​ ​suburban​ ​markets​ ​performing​ ​according​ ​to​ ​their own​ ​fundamentals." 
Matthew​ ​Tiller,​ ​LJ​ ​Hooker:​ ​(Hold)​ "Despite​ ​strong​ ​employment​ ​numbers,​ ​inflation​ ​and​ ​wage growth​ ​remain​ ​soft.​ ​Property​ ​price​ ​growth​ ​has​ ​moderated,​ ​relieving​ ​pressure​ ​on​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to shift​ ​rated." 
Stephen​ ​Koukoulas,​ ​Market​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ "RBA​ ​will​ ​continue​ ​to​ ​ignore​ ​weak​ ​inflation and​ ​wage​ ​results​ ​and​ ​instead​ ​create​ ​a​ ​perception​ ​of​ ​concerns​ ​about​ ​financial​ ​stability.​ ​A​ ​rate cut​ ​is​ ​long​ ​overdue.” 
John​ ​Caelli,​ ​ME:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA​ ​has​ ​signalled​ ​the​ ​next​ ​move​ ​will​ ​be​ ​up." 
Michael​ ​Yardney,​ ​Metropole​ ​Property​ ​Strategists:​ ​(Hold)​ "Our​ ​housing​ ​markets​ ​have​ ​slowed down,​ ​so​ ​there​ ​is​ ​no​ ​need​ ​for​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to​ ​raise​ ​rates,​ ​and​ ​even​ ​though​ ​inflation​ ​is​ ​below​ ​target and​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​flat,​ ​they​ ​dare​ ​not​ ​lower​ ​rates​ ​in​ ​fear​ ​of​ ​fuelling​ ​the​ ​property​ ​markets." 
Mark​ ​Crosby,​ ​Monash​ ​University:​ ​(Hold)​ "Pressures​ ​to​ ​cut​ ​rates​ ​have​ ​diminished​ ​to​ ​near zero,​ ​so​ ​the​ ​question​ ​now​ ​is​ ​on​ ​the​ ​timing​ ​of​ ​rate​ ​increases​ ​-​ ​which​ ​should​ ​hinge​ ​on international​ ​developments." 
Jessica​ ​Darnbrough,​ ​Mortgage​ ​Choice:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​domestic​ ​and​ ​international​ ​economies are​ ​starting​ ​to​ ​show​ ​signs​ ​of​ ​improvement,​ ​which​ ​could​ ​encourage​ ​the​ ​Reserve​ ​Bank​ ​to​ ​lift the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​at​ ​some​ ​point​ ​over​ ​the​ ​coming​ ​months.​ ​That​ ​said,​ ​for​ ​right​ ​now,​ ​inflation​ ​remains below​ ​target,​ ​which​ ​will​ ​no​ ​doubt​ ​lead​ ​the​ ​Board​ ​to​ ​leave​ ​the​ ​official​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​on​ ​hold.​ ​" 
Chris​ ​Schade,​ ​MyState​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​showing​ ​some​ ​promising​ ​signs, including​ ​the​ ​drag​ ​on​ ​growth​ ​from​ ​the​ ​unwinding​ ​of​ ​the​ ​mining​ ​investment​ ​boom​ ​being​ ​near its​ ​end,​ ​business​ ​confidence​ ​and​ ​conditions​ ​solid,​ ​strong​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​public​ ​infrastructure​ ​work, dwelling​ ​construction​ ​plateauing​ ​as​ ​opposed​ ​to​ ​declining,​ ​and​ ​quite​ ​high​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​job creation.​ ​There​ ​remain​ ​some​ ​weak​ ​spots​ ​however​ ​(e.g.​ ​wage​ ​growth,​ ​consumer​ ​confidence​ ​in their​ ​personal​ ​finances),​ ​and​ ​some​ ​areas​ ​of​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​that​ ​are​ ​in​ ​transition​ ​(e.g.​ ​housing market​ ​following​ ​numerous​ ​regulatory​ ​changes​ ​-​ ​albeit​ ​localised​ ​conditions​ ​vary​ ​widely). 
Overall,​ ​while​ ​it​ ​appears​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​is​ ​on​ ​the​ ​right​ ​track,​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​will​ ​likely​ ​continue​ ​to​ ​hold the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​at​ ​1.5%​ ​and​ ​allow​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​some​ ​more​ ​time​ ​to​ ​develop.​ ​On​ ​current information,​ ​it​ ​would​ ​seem​ ​probable​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​will​ ​hike​ ​in​ ​2018,​ ​most​ ​like​ ​the​ ​second​ ​half." 
Saul​ ​Eslake:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​RBA's​ ​made​ ​it​ ​clear​ ​that​ ​it​ ​has​ ​no​ ​desire​ ​to​ ​cut​ ​rates​ ​further​ ​in​ ​the absence​ ​of​ ​any​ ​currently​ ​unforeseen​ ​negative​ ​shocks;​ ​while​ ​the​ ​data​ ​flow​ ​since​ ​the​ ​last meeting​ ​won't​ ​have​ ​done​ ​anything​ ​to​ ​prompt​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​to​ ​bring​ ​forward​ ​any​ ​thoughts​ ​about tightening.​ ​In​ ​particular,​ ​the​ ​slightly​ ​lower-than-expected​ ​inflation​ ​outcomes​ ​for​ ​Q3​ ​have​ ​left 'underlying'​ ​inflation​ ​still​ ​below​ ​the​ ​RBA's​ ​target​ ​range." 
Jonathan​ ​Chancellor,​ ​Property​ ​Observer:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​recent​ ​decisions​ ​of​ ​central​ ​bank​ ​board and​ ​other​ ​regulatory​ ​authorities​ ​may​ ​have​ ​faded​ ​in​ ​time,​ ​but​ ​are​ ​still​ ​working​ ​their​ ​way through​ ​the​ ​economy,​ ​so​ ​no​ ​need​ ​just​ ​yet​ ​for​ ​any​ ​fresh​ ​adjustment." 
Matthew​ ​Peter,​ ​QIC:​ ​(Hold)​ "The​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​inflation​ ​pressure​ ​takes​ ​out-of-play​ ​any​ ​chance​ ​of rate​ ​hikes​ ​over​ ​coming​ ​months.​ ​Rate​ ​cuts​ ​are​ ​off​ ​the​ ​table​ ​unless​ ​the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​slumps and​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market​ ​has​ ​showed​ ​sustains​ ​signs​ ​of​ ​cooling." 
Noel​ ​Whittaker,​ ​QUT:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"The​ ​housing​ ​boom​ ​is​ ​tapering​ ​off​ ​–​ ​there​ ​is​ ​no​ ​reason​ ​to​ ​raise rates​ ​to​ ​stifle​ ​demand." 
Nerida​ ​Conisbee,​ ​REA​ ​Group:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"Economy​ ​still​ ​not​ ​strong​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​increase​ ​and housing​ ​too​ ​volatile​ ​to​ ​cut." 
Janu​ ​Chan,​ ​St.George​ ​Bank:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"RBA​ ​is​ ​becoming​ ​increasingly​ ​optimistic​ ​in​ ​regards​ ​to the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​and​ ​a​ ​recovery​ ​in​ ​non-mining​ ​investment.​ ​However,​ ​low​ ​inflation,​ ​slow wage​ ​growth,​ ​spare​ ​capacity​ ​still​ ​evident​ ​within​ ​the​ ​labour​ ​market​ ​suggests​ ​the​ ​RBA​ ​is​ ​still​ ​a way​ ​from​ ​raising​ ​rates." 
Brian​ ​Parker,​ ​Sunsuper:​ ​(Hold)​ "Not​ ​enough​ ​has​ ​changed​ ​in​ ​the​ ​last​ ​month​ ​for​ ​them​ ​to change​ ​course​ ​at​ ​this​ ​point." 
John​ ​Hewson,​ ​UNSW:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"Economic​ ​signs​ ​point​ ​to​ ​the​ ​cash​ ​rate​ ​staying​ ​where​ ​it​ ​is​ ​for quite​ ​a​ ​while,​ ​perhaps​ ​even​ ​for​ ​the​ ​next​ ​twelve​ ​months​ ​or​ ​more." 
Clement​ ​Tisdell,​ ​UQ-School​ ​of​ ​Economics:​ ​(Hold)​ ​"An​ ​increase​ ​may​ ​have​ ​a​ ​negative​ ​impact on​ ​economic​ ​sentiment​ ​at​ ​a​ ​time​ ​when​ ​the​ ​housing​ ​market​ ​effects​ ​have​ ​to​ ​be​ ​carefully managed." 
Other​ ​participants: 
Bill​ ​Evans,​ ​Westpac:​ ​(Hold) 
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RBA tipped to hold at 2017 Cup Day rate meeting

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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-malbon-110917" target="_blank">Justin Malbon, Monash University</a>
The <a href="https://sjm.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/110-2017/" target="_blank">federal government will be forcing banks</a> to hand over half their credit data ready for reporting by mid-2018 (with the remainder available in 2019).
It seems rather quaint in the age of big data that the big four banks have been able to hold onto their treasure troves of loan data for so long. This data reveals how reliable we are at repaying our loans. This information is gold to a lender.
For the government’s proposed legislation to work well, it would need to ensure effective regulatory systems are in place to protect our data and avoid more mortgage stress. To achieve this, lessons need to be learned from the US experience.
The new legislation on credit data promises to open up the consumer credit market to increased competition. This may in turn lead to cheaper loans.
Nimble competitors using new technologies could offer consumers innovative loan products at competitive interest rates. Non-traditional lenders could aggressively expand their market share at the expense of the banks. Consumers would seem to be the beneficiaries.
<h2>Lessons from the global financial crisis</h2>
Australia has long maintained one of the most restrictive <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=if2xjLv74HYC&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA273&amp;dq=J+Barron+and+M+Staten+%E2%80%98The+Value+of+Comprehensive+Credit+Report:+Lessons+from+the+US+Experience%E2%80%99+in+Credit+Reporting+Systems+and+the+International+Economy+(MIT+Press,+Cambridge+Mass,+2003)+&amp;ots=uD2_nMsTmX&amp;sig=NcDHHieq7GRoeLAbY_lYdMrYmcI#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false" target="_blank">credit reporting systems amongst OECD countries</a>. Australia’s reporting system had only allowed credit reporting agencies such as Equifax and Dun and Bradstreet to report on consumers’ bad credit histories. These histories include things such as bankruptcies, and late loan and rental repayments.
The US system already has required reporting of the positive aspects of a consumer’s credit behaviour, including their timely loan repayments. This has enabled companies to develop statistical scoring models to estimate a consumer’s loan default risk with remarkable accuracy. Credit scoring became the cornerstone for underwriting <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=if2xjLv74HYC&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA273&amp;dq=J+Barron+and+M+Staten+%E2%80%98The+Value+of+Comprehensive+Credit+Report:+Lessons+from+the+US+Experience%E2%80%99+in+Credit+Reporting+Systems+and+the+International+Economy+(MIT+Press,+Cambridge+Mass,+2003)+&amp;ots=uD2_nMsTmX&amp;sig=NcDHHieq7GRoeLAbY_lYdMrYmcI#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false" target="_blank">decisions for consumer loans</a>.
Unsurprisingly, this led to intense competition. With more accurate data, lenders no longer had to assume that low income consumers represented a higher risk of defaulting on their loans.
With customer loan histories being made available to competitors, low income consumers with a history of being reliable repayers were offered loans. As competition intensified, an ever-expanding <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/S0733-558X%282010%29000030A008" target="_blank">sub-prime loan mortgage market developed</a>. Shoddy loan practices became rife, setting the stage for the 2008 global financial crisis.
Australian households overall are <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017" target="_blank">already heavily in debt</a>. Intense competition resulting from the proposed new legislation risks pushing households deeper into debt. Low income consumers risk becoming more vulnerable to falling into debt traps.
Partly in response to the global financial crisis, Australia introduced responsible lending obligations on lenders, which are designed to stop loans to consumers who lack the capacity to repay them. However, the US subprime experience showed that lenders became adept at dodging the rules, and regulators <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-subprime-virus-9780195388824?cc=au&amp;lang=en&amp;" target="_blank">appeared to lack the will to enforce them</a>. The regulators will need to be particularly vigilant to avoid this occurring in Australia.
Compelling the big banks to release loan histories to third parties, such as credit reporting agencies, raises further risks that need to be closely attended to. Lenders will either create their own credit scoring models from the data provided by the banks, or rely on the scores produced by credit reporting agencies.
A bad or inaccurate score will have serious implications for a consumer. They may either be refused loans, or only be offered interest rates that are higher than if their score had been accurate.
There needs to be effective systems in place to ensure consumers have ready access to their score, and that they be able to challenge any inaccuracies. Informational transparency should apply for the benefit of both lenders and consumers.
Yet another risk is that our personal loan information will be stolen by criminals. Earlier this year, credit rating agency Equifax was subjected to a cyber attack affecting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/11/personal-details-of-almost-700000-britons-hacked-in-cyber-attack" target="_blank">over 143 million Americans and over 600,000 Brits</a>. Australia’s largest credit reporting agency, Equifax Pty Ltd, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Equifax Inc.
The data breach is subjecting US and UK consumers to increased risks of identity fraud and targeted scams. Requiring the banks to release our loan data to third parties increases the risk of data breaches.
Increased competition can offer considerable benefits for consumers. However, overheated competition risks damaging the interests of individual consumers, and the economy as a whole.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86757/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Consumers also face the increased likelihood of data breaches. The federal government and its regulatory agencies will need to be highly alert to these dangers, and ever vigilant.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justin-malbon-110917" target="_blank">Justin Malbon</a>, Professor of Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065" target="_blank">Monash University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/forcing-the-banks-to-hand-over-our-credit-history-might-help-with-a-home-loan-but-it-has-risks-86757" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Forcing the banks to hand over our credit history might help with a home loan but it has risks

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The Reserve Bank is set to leave interest rates unchanged again when it meets next Tuesday, according to an analysis of 23 leading economic indicators.
Comparison website <a href="https://ratecity.com.au/" target="_blank">RateCity.com.au</a>’s ‘Rate Forecaster’ found that 21 of the 23 indicators suggested the RBA would leave the official cash rate at a record-low 1.50 per cent, where it has been since August 2016.
It’s now been seven years since the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate.
RateCity money editor Sally Tindall said it is unlikely the RBA will hike rates anytime soon.
“It’s incredible to think there is a now a large number of first home buyers who’ve never experienced a rate hike. Seven years is a long time between increases.
“However, when the RBA meets on Tuesday there is currently no strong case to move official interest rates.
RateCity’s analysis of official data shows there has been little change in GDP, unemployment, construction, auction clearance rates and retail sales figures.
“Lower than expected inflation figures and wage growth stalling at just 1.9 per cent provide an argument for the Reserve to cut rates, but that’s unlikely.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/inflation5.jpg" alt="">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/Wages1.jpg" alt="">
“The RBA will also be concerned Australia’s household debt-to-income level increased from 190.0 per cent to a record 193.7 per cent in the last quarter – a worrying trend that that leaves them in a difficult position.
“If they hike rates, they will risk sending thousands of Australians into financial hardship. Conversely, if they lower rates, it will encourage others to take on more debt.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/Debt4.jpg" alt="">
“In short, it’s hands are tied until wages growth, and the broader economy, strengthen.
“Until then, home owners can rest easy in the knowledge that their mortgage repayments won’t be increasing anytime soon,” said Tindall.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/2/Econ3.jpg" alt="">
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA’s seven-year itch: the growing number of Australians who’ve never experienced a rate hike

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GUEST OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%.
Relative to the last meeting in September, there were no significant changes in the Governor’s associated statement. On balance however, it is reasonable to conclude that the statement is a little more optimistic than we saw last month.
In particular, the commentary around non-mining business investment strengthened. In September, he noted “the outlook for non-mining investment has improved recently”. This time, “consistent signs that non-mining business investment is picking up"; “capacity utilisation has risen” and “a large pipeline of infrastructure investment is also supporting the outlook”. Curiously,  prospects for the residential housing investment cycle have dimmed further in the last month, yet, whereas in September he notes “little further growth is expected”, there is no discussion about this cycle in the October statement.
Significantly, the key drag on the economy from our perspective – a constrained household sector – still bothers the RBA, “slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt are likely to constrain growth in household spending”.
The Bank, while noting recent strong employment growth, remains cautious about the unemployment rate, noting “the unemployment rate is expected to decline only gradually over the next couple of years”.
As expected, despite the fall in the Australian dollar from around USD 0.80 to USD 0.782 since the last meeting, the commentary around the AUD is unchanged, “the higher exchange rate… is weighing on the outlook for output and employment”.
Recently, RBA speakers have been emphasising their concern around the buoyant housing market as relating to housing debt outpacing growth in household incomes. In the paragraph on the housing market, the Governor’s statement leads with that concern, whereas in previous statements he has led with a discussion on  housing market conditions. The statement emphasises that recent macroprudential policies introduced by the regulator APRA are targeted at the medium-term risks associated with rising household debt. Having noted that, he does confirm that the signs that conditions were easing in Sydney which he noted in September have intensified – “further signs that conditions are easing”.
It remains our view that the RBA and APRA (the regulator) will continue to target macroprudential policies at the household debt issue rather than use interest rates in the context of a fragile economy.
Conclusion
As we have consistently argued, it appears that the Bank is expecting to raise rates sometime in 2018. With conditions in the housing market easing, and inflation and growth remaining sub-trend, there is no immediate urgency to move any sooner. However, we expect that as 2018 unfolds, the Bank will deem it necessary to revise down its growth assessments and continue to rely upon macroprudential policies to contain any further lift in the household debt to income ratio.
We continue to expect that rates will remain on hold in 2018 and 2019.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
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RBA keeps rates on hold - asserts that recent developments are in line with outlook

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.5 per cent over the year to August 2017, with business credit recording a solid +0.5 per cent expansion in the month.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nVWC2xpUUBI/Wc-Xl9eohOI/AAAAAAAAmZI/PfV_gmWO20AnELd6olcBwuNaXtl8gCIRQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1359"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Earlier in the week APRA had reported that a number of banks saw the total value of their loan books decline in August, most notably the Commonwealth Bank, following a tumultuous stretch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, all of the major banks now have investment loan books growing at a rate well below the 10 per cent speed limit imposed by the regulator, implying headroom to lend more to investors going forward. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6C_sKHC3Np4/Wc-XoerhVmI/AAAAAAAAmZQ/6H3bAi4p9VIvxkHacZH2VU5BkXdAgwVNgCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1366"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, with a significant number of banks showing declines in their loan books during the month, this suggests that macroprudential measures are beginning to slow down lending from quite a few banks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, perhaps the regulator is breathing down the necks of lenders just a bit more heavily than before. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1408"></a></div>
 
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>More loans being switched to principal and interest will help to see loan book balances ease too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In spite of this, the RBA reported housing credit growing by +6.6 per cent over the year, actually a notched faster than a year previously. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit is now approaching $1.7 trillion, with a substantial volume of loans being switched from investment to owner-occupier (no less than $58 billion since July 2015). </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s1600/RBA3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gmbZam-Sm44/Wc-XpZetJaI/AAAAAAAAmZU/dkZft07n3645l7xhJY2RyjJtCjRtTHT5QCLcBGAs/s640/RBA3.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1444"></a></div>
 
<div>The only reasonable conclusion appears to be that non-bank lenders are stepping in to pick up the slack, and total housing debt continues to power on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The only thing that will definitely stop the housing credit juggernaut, it seems, is rising interest rates, and these seem to be a way off yet. </div>
 
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