Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Rba Rate Decision

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The RBA cash rate decision came out today with the rate unchanged at 1.5 percent.
The bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting.
It noted rising prices were easing and that some markets had declining prices.
Laing+Simmons Managing Director Leanne Pilkington said the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold was the right one.
"A steady interest rate environment will continue to be crucial as the country – and mortgage holders – navigate various economic and political uncertainties.
“In the past week we’ve read reports that rates could move higher sooner rather than later, and that compounding rises over a relatively short period may materialise. This could jeopardise the safe landing that the Treasurer has prioritised,” Ms Pilkington says.
“Our forecast remains that there will be no further reduction to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in 2017,” said HIA principal economist, Tim Reardon. 
“Comments issued by the Reserve Bank Governor today highlight that housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets and declining in others. 
“These patchy outcomes are consistent with the easing of conditions in the housing market. 
“The pressures on the RBA to respond to developments in the housing market have eased as the major mortgage lenders moved to increase interest rates on a number of riskier mortgage lending products. 
“Furthermore, the latest dwelling price figures showing that the market for established properties in the east coast capital cities may be cooling is likely to provide additional comfort," he said.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said it came as no surprise that the RBA has held the cash rate at 1.5 percent for its tenth consecutive meeting today.
"The decision comes on the back of upbeat labour market reports, with unemployment falling to 5.5 percent since the last meeting and a trend towards more job advertisements," he said.  
"While the jobs market appears to be strengthening, other factors remain subdued, with wages growth tracking along record lows at just 1.9 percent per annum and core inflation below the target range of 2-3 percent.
"Furthermore, a steady cash rate from the RBA against increasingly hawkish sentiments in Europe and the US stand to put downward pressure on the Australian dollar. This would serve as a welcome boost to Australian exports.
"Importantly, the housing market is showing signs of slowing, with CoreLogic’s home value indices reporting a 0.8 percent rise in dwelling values over the June quarter; the lowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015. 
"A controlled slowdown in housing market conditions would provide some comfort to policy makers that new macroprudential constraints are working to cool the high rate of capital gains in Sydney and Melbourne. 
"While the cash rate has remained on hold, the same can’t be said for mortgage rates, which have been edging higher since September last year. 
"Arguably, higher mortgage rates have done much of the heavy lifting in slowing down home value appreciation and cooling investment demand.  
"There is an expectation that mortgage rates will continue to rise, despite a steady cash rate setting, as lenders adjust their credit policies to accommodate the latest round of APRA mandates. 
"If this is the case, we expect investment activity will continue to moderate across the housing market, which could dampen housing market conditions further. 
"Slower housing market conditions and improvements in employment markets are certainly positive outcomes, however if wages growth and inflation remain subdued we can expect the cash rate to remain on hold over the short term."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA holds again in July 

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GUEST OBSERVER
At last, the official labour force survey is starting to line up with other labour market measures, such as job advertisements and business surveys.
For quite some time we have argued that the divergence had largely reflected measurement issues in the official survey.
Stronger official prints in recent months means that the indicators are now all showing a tightening labour market.
The positive momentum is also consistent with the view emanating from the business surveys.
The NAB survey showed business conditions and capacity utilisation around decade highs in May.
This is happening despite weak real GDP numbers for 1Q.
The GDP print, which was published in early June, showed growth of 0.3% q-o-q and 1.7% y-o-y.
However, as we noted last month, we think most of the weakness reflects the impact of Cyclone Debbie and unusually wet weather on the east Coast.
Despite weak real GDP, nominal GDP rose by a strong 7.7% y-o-y, which is its fastest rate in over five years.
Nominal growth has been boosted by the rise in commodity prices, although there are also some signs that the nominal lift has moved beyond just a mining story.
Corporate profits have also picked up in a broad range of non-mining sectors.
However, as yet, we have not seen a pick-up in wages growth.
Although there are signs that wages growth has stabilised, it is still running at multi-decade lows.
Nonetheless, we expect wages growth to pick-up in 2H17 supported by a number of factors.
First, corporate profits growth is strong and historically this leads to a rise in wages growth.
Second, the labour market is tightening, and even though the link between wages and jobs market conditions may be weaker than in the past we still expect some traction.
Third, the minimum wage was lifted by more this year than last year, which we expect could add 0.2-0.3ppts to wages growth.
The lift in wages growth should support a gradual rise in underlying inflation.
Once the RBA sees clear evidence of a lift in wages growth, we expect that a hike will not be too far away.
On fixed income strategy, expect front-end risk premium to rise as the RBA would like to remove accommodative policy if/when the data allows, similar to other central banks.
As we pointed out last month, ahead of the 1Q national accounts, Cyclone Debbie and wet weather on the east Coast were expected to hold back first quarter GDP growth and indeed they did (Chart 1).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
Exports fell, partly due to a fall in coal exports out of Queensland, retail sales were held back and housing construction also declined in the first quarter.
Much of this disruption is likely to be temporary.
Coal exports and retail sales have already bounced back and there is still a considerable pipeline of work yet to be done on apartments in major cities.
We expect modest growth in 2Q, as the cyclone effect continued into April, and then a strong bounce back in 2H.
Although real GDP was weak in the first quarter, nominal GDP rose at its fastest pace in over five years, particularly supported by higher commodity prices (Chart 2).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
Measures that are better at abstracting from the impact of weather, such as business surveys and the labour market numbers, are also showing that underlying economic conditions are improving, rather than deteriorating.
Indeed, the NAB survey shows that business conditions and capacity utilisation are around decade-highs (Chart 3 and 4).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-4.jpg" alt="">
The improvement in surveyed business conditions is consistent with a strong recent lift in profits.
Although part of this reflects the effect of higher commodity prices on the mining industry, with mining profits up 113% y-o-y, non-mining profits have also lifted by a strong 17% y-o-y.
The jobs numbers suggest the labour market is tightening rather than loosening.
Given measurement issues in the official survey we have, for some time, been putting more emphasis on other measures of the labour market, such as the job advertisements and business surveys.
To keep track, we constructed a labour market index, which has shown a trend improvement in the jobs market, unlike the official survey (Chart 5).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-5.jpg" alt="">
However, the official numbers are now starting to come back into line.
A strong lift in the official jobs growth numbers in the past three months drove the unemployment rate down to 5.5% in May, which is its lowest level since 2013 (Chart 6).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-6.jpg" alt="">
The official numbers also showed a sharp jump in hours worked in May, which has brought the trend growth in hours worked back into line with the employment numbers (Chart 7).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-7.jpg" alt="">
A key question for the RBA is: when will the tightening in the labour market start to translate into a pick-up in wages growth?
The main indicators are showing signs that wage growth has stabilised, but there are few signs of a pick-up at this stage.
Many other countries are also grappling with the fact that labour markets have tightened, but wages growth has not yet lifted.
Our central case is that local wages growth will gradually pick-up in the second half of 2017.
Our view has largely been formed around the idea that there is a strong historical positive correlation between the terms of trade (mostly driven by commodity prices) and unit labour costs in Australia.
Typically, when commodity prices rise and support a pick-up in nominal GDP, some part of this boost to incomes ends up in wages growth.
Although it could be argued that the lift in commodity prices will have less effect this time around, as there is unlikely to be another mining investment boom, it is also worth keeping in mind that profits are also rising in the non-mining industries (Chart 8).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-8.jpg" alt="">
As the chart shows, there is also a strong positive correlation between non-mining profits and wages growth.
The recent lift in the minimum wage also supports our view.
The Fair Work Commission announced a 3.3% rise in the minimum wage from 1 July 2017, which is larger than the 2.4% rise announced last year.
This decision directly affects around one-quarter of all workers and can also form the benchmark for other enterprise bargaining agreements.
We expect the decision to lift wages growth by 0.2-0.3ppts.
The improvement in the local labour market and business conditions as well as improving global economic conditions and a recent shift in rhetoric at other central banks will all act to re-affirm the RBA’s view that it will not need to cut the cash rate further.
Although the RBA’s commentary has suggested that the leverage-fuelled housing market boom had been the key reason that it is not considering further cuts, improvements in the local and global macro-economy over recent months would further bolster the central bank’s resolve.
The RBA will also be keenly aware that central banks have gradually been turning more hawkish in recent weeks.
The Federal Reserve has clearly suggested that it will begin to reduce its balance sheet soon and that it intends to continue to lift its policy rate.
The ECB has given stronger hints that it may reduce its quantitative easing program soon.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-9.jpg" alt="">
There is debate at the Bank of England, amongst the MPC members, about the possibility of a rate hike.
Officials from the Bank of Canada and Norges Bank have turned more hawkish in recent weeks.
We do not expect the RBA to introduce any explicit forward-guidance in its policy statement, although the tone of the commentary may very well be a little more upbeat than previously, particularly on the local labour market.
We expect the RBA to point to forthcoming CPI numbers as the next key release to watch.
In our view, once the RBA has clear signs that wages growth is past its trough it will not be long before it will seek to move towards a more normal cash rate setting.
Our central case is for a hike in 1Q18 (not quite yet, but sooner than the market is currently pricing).
A growing theme in developed market central bank communication has been a boldness in signalling the removal of accommodative monetary policy, with softening headline inflation and weak wage growth downplayed.
The Bank of Canada’s recent communication shift was particularly interesting given that Canada shares many similar macro attributes with Australia, meaning they tend to be cyclically synchronised.
That front-end pricing has moved to opposite extremes presents an attractive cross-market opportunity, in our view.
Even if the RBA is not the “next cab off the rank”, we believe the risk-reward favours positioning for higher AUD front-end risk premium.
Current OIS implies a broadly flat path for the cash rate over the next 12 months, while only Japan and Switzerland have a lower spread between 2Y IRS and the 3m fixing among the G10 countries.
Yet, the RBA has set a very high bar for cuts and we suspect the central bank has a strong desire to remove its accommodative policy if/when the data allows.
Recent tightening of the labour market (the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in May – the lowest since 2013) should embolden the hawks.
Paul Bloxham is the Chief Economist for HSBC and Daniel Smith is the Economist for HSBC. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.hsbc.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The hikes are coming, but not quite there yet: HSBC

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The RBA have highlighted the concerns about the Brisbane property market, suggesting a significant increase in the supply of apartments.
They suggested that the supply increase has begun to affect prices and rents in the Queensland capital.
The minutes from the February rate decision, where the RBA decided to hold the rates at a record low 1.5 percent, also noted the prices and rents falling in Perth.
"The combination of increased supply and lower population growth had already depressed rents and apartment prices in Perth and, increasingly, Brisbane," the minutes read.
However, they say that activity in the Sydney and Melbourne housing market in the second half of 2016 had increased, as did investor housing loan approvals.
It was noted that the housing market activity in Melbourne and surrounding areas had been supported by strong population growth and improvements in transportation infrastructure.
They concluded the property wrap by suggesting some lenders were taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. 
 
 
 
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Brisbane apartment supply noted in February 2017 RBA minutes

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GUEST OBSERVER
As widely expected the RBA left interest rates on hold at its February Board meeting.
The RBA’s post meeting statement didn’t really provide anything new.
The RBA seems a bit more upbeat about the global economy, sees the September quarter GDP slump in Australia as largely temporary, sees inflation remaining low and the labour market as mixed.
Somewhat surprisingly it signalled little change to its growth and inflation forecasts despite the September quarter growth slump.
On growth it sees a return to reasonable growth in the December quarter (as we do) and continues to see growth around 3% in the next few years.
Similarly, its level of concern around the property market does not appear to have increased despite a further pick up in lending to property investors and continued rapid price growth in Sydney and Melbourne.
The RBA’s commentary around the property market was little changed from that seen in its December post meeting statement.
Overall, the basic message from the RBA remains that it is comfortably on hold at present with a neutral bias regarding future rate changes.
While the RBA retained its reference to an appreciating $A complicating the adjustment in the economy away from mining investment, the $A rose about 0.4% after the release of the RBA’s Statement.
This is presumably on the back of the RBA’s neutral bias and lack of any downwards revision to its growth and inflation forecasts.
With the $US undergoing a correction there is a real risk that the $A is on its way to another retest of the $US0.78 level, a break of which would open up a run to around $US0.80 which would be a real concern for the economy and the RBA.
So it’s surprising that the RBA has not ramped up its jawboning to try and lower the $A.
Our view remains that it will take longer for inflation to return to target than the RBA is allowing, particularly with wages growth remaining at record lows and the $A trending higher.
As a result we remain of the view that the RBA will cut rates again probably in May after the next round of inflation data and revisions to the RBA’s inflation forecasts.
Given the conflicting forces though, I would concede that our call for another RBA rate cut is a close one.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

RBA starts the year on hold and in neutral: Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
As expected the Reserve Bank Board decided to hold the overnight cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent.
The commentary in the Governor’s statement was a little more upbeat than had been the case in December.
In particular the global view has been lifted from global growth “lower than average” to “growth above trend in a number of developed economies.”
Another aspect of the importance of global growth has been the ongoing strength in commodity prices.
This statement notes that the terms of trade have risen and this will boost national incomes.
The Bank confirms its forecast in November that growth in 2017 and 2018 will be around 3 percent.
In fact the 2018 forecast is 3.5 percent and given the more recent official forecasts we saw from the Government in the December Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that 2018 number is likely to be shaved a little to 3.25 percent.
Nevertheless 3 percent is considered to be above the Bank’s assessment of trend (2.75 percent) and therefore implies a gradually strengthening labour market.
The statement directly addresses the reported contraction in the economy in the September quarter attributing it to “temporary factors” with the RBA expecting a return to reasonable growth in the December quarter.
In that regard while consumption is expected to remain moderate, non mining investment is anticipated to show “some pick up”.
Specific commentary on the labour market is largely unchanged with conditions described as mixed although the Bank notes that leading indicators are pointing to continued expansion.
Commentary on the housing market is also largely in line with the December statement with the market described as strengthening overall and prices rising briskly in some cities.
In fact in December the statement pointed out that turnover had been lower and this comment is absent in this statement.
There is also some emphasis on the tightening in lending conditions from the banks that will give the RBA some comfort with respect to any financial stability risks.
Commentary around inflation remains confident pointing out that the most recent inflation report was in line with expectations and both headline and underlying inflation were expected to rise above 2 percent over the Bank’s forecast period.
This statement clearly sets out the Bank’s current policy approach.
That is, to hold rates steady in anticipation of a gradual lift in growth and inflation while imbalances in the housing market remain contained.
We expect this thinking will be sustained throughout 2017 being supported by a rising terms of trade, a peaking construction cycle and a gradually falling unemployment rate with rates remaining on hold.
Our central view for 2018 would be a similar policy stance despite clear preferences in the market for the beginning of a tightening cycle.
Westpac’s view on growth in 2018 is that is it will slow down to a below trend 2.5 percent with housing construction contracting, the terms of trade falling, and ongoing moderation in consumer spending and business investment.
This pitches the risks to the “on hold” call in 2018 to the downside in clear contrast to current market views.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/">Westpac</a>
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RBA keeps rates on hold, commentary slightly more upbeat than in December: Bill Evans

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<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months.
Business and consumer confidence have both picked up.
Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain.
In China, growth was stronger over the second half of 2016, supported by higher spending on infrastructure and property construction.
This composition of growth and the rapid increase in borrowing mean that the medium-term risks to Chinese growth remain.
The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a boost to Australia's national income.
Headline inflation rates have moved higher in most countries, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices.
Long-term bond yields have also moved higher, although in a historical context they remain low.
Interest rates have increased in the United States and there is no longer an expectation of further monetary easing in other major economies.
Financial markets have been functioning effectively and stock markets have mostly risen.
In Australia, the economy is continuing its transition following the end of the mining investment boom.
GDP was weaker than expected in the September quarter, largely reflecting temporary factors.
A return to reasonable growth is expected in the December quarter.
The Bank's central scenario remains for economic growth to be around 3 per cent over the next couple of years.
Growth will be boosted by further increases in resource exports and by the period of declining mining investment coming to an end.
Consumption growth is expected to pick up from recent outcomes, but to remain moderate.
Some further pick-up in non-mining business investment is also expected.
The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates.
Financial institutions remain in a position to lend.
The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom.
An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.
Labour market indicators continue to be mixed and there is considerable variation in employment outcomes across the country.
The unemployment rate has moved a little higher recently, but growth in full-time employment turned positive late in 2016.
The forward-looking indicators point to continued expansion in employment over the period ahead.
Inflation remains quite low. The December quarter outcome was as expected, with both headline and underlying inflation of around 1½ per cent.
The Bank's inflation forecasts are largely unchanged.
The continuing subdued growth in labour costs means that inflation is expected to remain low for some time.
Headline inflation is expected to pick up over the course of 2017 to be above 2 per cent, with the rise in underlying inflation expected to be a bit more gradual.
Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country.
In some markets, conditions have strengthened further and prices are rising briskly.
In other markets, prices are declining.
In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years.
Growth in rents is the slowest for a couple of decades.
Borrowing for housing has picked up a little, with stronger demand by investors.
With leverage increasing, supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards and some lenders are taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments.
Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy in 2016, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
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House prices varying between decline and rising briskly: RBA February 2017 Governor Philip Lowe statement

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The RBA held at its February 2017 meeting with the cash rate at 1.5 percent.
The hold decision from the RBA was widely anticipated, especially considering the strength in the housing market over the second half of 2016 as well as the consistent rise in investment activity since the latest round of rate cuts in May and August last year. 
With inflation consistently tracking below the RBA’s target range for almost three years, it’s likely that the heat in the housing market is one of the primary reasons why the cash rate hasn’t moved lower in an attempt to stimulate spending and push inflation higher, CoreLogic's Tim Lawless reported.
CoreLogic reported capital city dwelling values were 10.7% higher over the past twelve months, which is a substantially higher growth rate than the 7.4% recorded over the same period a year ago. 
Laing+Simmons Managing Director and REINSW President-elect Leanne Pilkington says the Reserve Bank had neither the justification nor the desire to reduce the official cash rate today after the rate cuts of last year.
Ms Pilkington believes further easing is not needed in the current cycle.
“Obtaining housing finance at attractive terms is already possible for those with the means. It’s those without the means – stuck in the rental cycle or unable to accumulate a suitable deposit – that face the greatest challenge in the market,” Ms Pilkington says.
“And further rate cuts are not a solution to the problem. Between Government and the industry, we need to table some alternative solutions to help people buy their first home.
“From a housing industry perspective, rates are already low and have been for some time, so that piece of the affordability puzzle is in place.
“It’s through other avenues like stamp duty reform that improvements in affordability need to be addressed,” she says.
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RBA February 2017 rate decision holds rates at record low

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Donald Trump’s assumption of the US presidency since the last RBA Shadow Board round two months ago raises important questions about the future health of the global economy.
Domestically, consumer prices rose a little faster, by 1.5% year-on-year in the December 2016 quarter, but still well below the RBA’s 2-3% target band.
The CAMA RBA Shadow Board’s conviction that the cash rate should remain at its current level is stronger than two months ago, reflecting the heightened uncertainty surrounding the Trump presidency.
The Shadow Board attaches a 70% probability to a rate hold being the appropriate policy setting.
The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 5%, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 25%.
There is little inflationary pressure emanating from the Australian labour market, with Australia’s official unemployment rate now standing at 5.8%.
Since the participation rate has remained steady, the modest increase in unemployment is primarily due to a smaller increase in the creation of new jobs.
There is no new data on wages growth.
The Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, has strengthened again, finding support above 75 US¢.
Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have slipped to 2.77%, once again nearing their historical low.
Domestic share prices have retreated from their highs in early January, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 stock market index now consolidating between 5,600 and 5,700.
The main global threat remains the uncertainty surrounding the Trump Presidency.
On the one hand, Trump’s promise to drastically increase infrastructure and defence spending, coupled with tax cuts, will exert upward pressure on US, and hence world, interest rates.
On the other hand, Trump’s protectionist and nationalist policies will dampen international trade and generate political uncertainty.
This could further increase global interest rates if risk premia were to rise considerably, or lower interest rates if global demand falls.
Making accurate predictions in such an environment is extremely ambitious; but the heightened uncertainty is damaging to financial markets and the overall economic outlook.
Consumer confidence, as measured by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, has fallen slightly during the past two months.
It now stands at 97.4 (down from 101.3 two months ago).
The manufacturing and services PMI, which measure the performances of the manufacturing and services sectors, continue to bounce around without clear direction.
It is now equaling 51.2 (down from 54.2 two months ago) and 54.5 (up from 50.5), respectively.
The AIG Performance of Construction Index (PCI), after its recent blip up, fell again, edged up for the second month in a row, from 45.9 in October to 47 in December.
Building permits declined again in December, by 1.2%, though November saw an interruption in this trend, with an increase of 7.5%.
The Shadow Board’s preference for the optimal interest rate has strengthened.
It now attaches a 70% probability (56% in December) that “no change” is the appropriate policy, a 5% probability (2% in December) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 25% probability (43% in December) that a rate rise, to 1.75% or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50% equals 24%, three percentage points up from the previous round.
The estimated need for an interest rate decrease remains unchanged at 9%, while the need for a rate increase equals 67% (71% in December).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 17% (unchanged from December), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease (7%) and in a required cash rate increase (77%) are also virtually unchanged.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2011.37.05%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-07%20at%2011.37.05%20am.jpg" alt="">
For more information, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

February rates are on hold as uncertainty about Trump continues: RBA Shadow Board

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Whether or not we end up in surplus in five years’ time, <a href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2016-17/content/myefo/html/" target="_blank">yesterday’s Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO)</a> exposes nasty political problems for the Turnbull government in the here and now.
Real GDP growth for 2016-17 has been sensibly but shockingly revised down to 2% – the lowest outcome since the global financial crisis, the second lowest in 16 years and the third lowest since the long upswing began in 1991/92. Sensible, because we know, from the third-quarter GDP numbers and other indicators this year, that the upswing in residential investment has peaked before (and perhaps well before) an upswing in business investment has begun.
Shocking, because if labour productivity continues to run a little above 1% – as it has for the last four years – the implied growth in employment of 1% or so will probably not be enough to stop unemployment rising. The MYEFO projects the unemployment rate in the June quarter next year at 5.5% – lower than today and lower than the average of 5.8% over the last four years.
Yet, at 2.6% year average GDP, growth in those four years has been markedly stronger than the 2% MYEFO now projects for 2016-17. Even with the projected decline in the participation rate, the MYEFO unemployment forecast will be a struggle.
Disappointing GDP growth is political problem number one for Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison. Problem number two is the implacable persistence of substantial federal deficits.
These deficits limit the government’s response to problem number one. In 2012-2013 government receipts were 23.0% of GDP, payments 24.0% of GDP, and the deficit 1.2% of GDP. Labor lost office a little over nine weeks after the end of that fiscal year.
In these latest projections for the 2016-17 Budget, four years on from 2012-2013, receipts are expected to be 23.3% of GDP, payments 25.2% of GDP and the deficit 2.1% of GDP. Compared to 2012-13, receipts have increased 0.3% of GDP, spending 1.2% of GDP and the deficit 0.9% of GDP. Receipts are up, but spending is up even more and so is the deficit.
There are plenty of reasons for this woeful fiscal performance, mostly to do with modest increases in profits and wages and the tax-minimisation policy of former Treasurer Peter Costello. But these reasons are not ones that square with Treasurer Morrison’s rhetoric, or which can any longer be laid at the door of the previous Labor government.
Nor does the MYEFO give any confidence that the troubles of the Turnbull government will soon be eased. The path to the return to surplus depends completely on increasing tax revenue.
Spending as a share of GDP is now, according to these MYEFO projections, locked in at 25.2% of GDP right through to the end of the forward estimates period (and beyond the next election) in 2019-20. The projected decline of the deficit arises only because tax receipts are expected to increase over that period by 1.6% of GDP.
A slow economy, a rising tax take, perhaps rising unemployment, and not much room to move. 2017 won’t be cheerful for the prime minister or treasurer – or for the rest of us.
John Edwards<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-edwards-89846"></a> is nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Adjunct Professor with the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy at <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873" target="_blank">Curtin University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-are-two-big-political-problems-buried-in-the-latest-budget-update-70595" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The two big political problems buried in the latest budget update: John Edwards

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The December RBA minutes are consistent with the recent narrative out of the RBA which points to policy on hold, according to Commonwealth Bank's economic update.
The level of inflation and spare capacity in the economy gives the bank scope to cut rates if the economic data makes the case.
But today’s minutes suggest it would take a shift in the economic landscape for the cash rate to move lower from here.
To recap, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at the December board meeting. And the final paragraph contained an unchanged neutral bias.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-1.jpg" alt="">
This was reaffirmed in today’s minutes.
Namely, that: “having eased monetary policy earlier in the year, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
"In our view, there is a paragraph in the December minutes that contains the thumb print of new governor Philip Lowe," the updated stated.
The key lines being that the board discussed the “effect of lower interest rates on asset prices and the decisions by households to borrow, particularly given the already high levels of household debt”.
“The Board had sought to balance the benefits of lower interest rates in supporting growth and achieving the inflation target with the potential risks to household balance sheets.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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"Members recognised that this balance would need to be kept under review.”
These are indications that the RBA, under Governor Lowe, is placing a little more emphasis in policy settings on asset prices and financial stability than it did under former governor Stevens.
Here we recall that there have been a series of developments since RBA governor Lowe took the helm that mean the hurdle for more policy easing is a notch higher than it was under Glenn Stevens.
First, there were tweaks to the RBA’s policy framework. The inflation target was reaffirmed as 2-3% per annum.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-3.jpg" alt="">
But “on average over the cycle” was replaced with “over time”. There was also a drafting change that, at least cosmetically, makes the link between monetary policy and financial stability a little more direct.
These two changes point to a central bank that appears more willing to tolerate inflation outside of the target band for a little longer than they may have done in the past.
On the international economy, the bank is a little more upbeat than previously, noting that developments had been “more positive” in recent months and that the Chinese economy had “remained resilient”.
The RBA is a little more hawkish on global inflation, noting that the outlook is more “balanced” than it has been for a while.
On the domestic economy, the RBA noted that, “year-ended growth was expected to decline”. Here we note that the December board meeting predates the QIII GDP ‘shocker’.
And while the RBA was expecting a soft print, the 0.5% fall in GDP would not have been in their growth profile.
As such, we expect the bank to downgrade their GDP forecasts in the February statement on monetary policy (SMP).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-4.jpg" alt="">
Growth is expected to pick up to be “above potential” later in the forecast period as the impact of declining mining investment on the economy wanes.
"We agree and would add that on our estimates we are about 85% through the expected decline in mining investment," the update stated.
The RBA lacked conviction in its assessment on the labour market by indicating that there was still “considerable uncertainty” about its “momentum”.
Clearly the bank is struggling with the rare combination of a downward trend in both employment growth and the unemployment rate.
On that score, last week’s comprehensively strong November employment report will settle some nerves in Martin Place around the health of the labour market.
The pulse of jobs growth was easing into the November print (which predates the December board meeting) so the solid increase in jobs over the month (all full-time), coupled with a lift in participation and fall in the underutilisation rate would have been a welcome update.
Interestingly, the RBA mentioned a new hours-based measure of labour market underutilisation that had declined to a similar extent as the unemployment rate.
The Bbank stuck to the recent script on the housing market by noting that: “Conditions had strengthened overall over preceding months, although there was considerable variation across the country.”
On the AUD, the Board had very little to say which is probably related to their satisfaction with what has been happening.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-5.jpg" alt="">
Commodity prices have been firming, but since mid-November (i.e. over the past month) the AUD has fallen 41⁄4% against the USD and 13⁄4% on a TWI basis.
The fall largely reflects USD strength which is the ideal outcome for the Australian economy at the moment.
The Outlook
With no meeting in January, the next RBA Board meeting is seven-odd weeks away.
There will be a lot of economic data out between now and then. And overlying that, financial markets will continue to adjust to the new economic paradigm under a Trump presidency.
We think that the RBA faces a tough job in returning inflation to target. But new Governor Philip Lowe looks more willing to tolerate inflation outside of the target band if it reduces the risk of financial imbalances and the further build of up debt in the household sector.
In addition to today’s minutes, governor Lowe’s comments from his CEDA address in November that: “It is unlikely to be in the public interest, given current projections for the economy, to encourage a noticeable rise in household indebtedness, even if doing so might encourage slightly faster consumption growth in the short term” are still ringing in our ears."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2016/12/20/ComUpdate-6.jpg" alt="">
"To us, Lowe’s comments are a strong hint that the governor doesn’t want to take the cash rate lower. And he reminded us today that the cash rate had been “lowered in aggregate by 31⁄4 ppts” over this easing cycle," the update stated.
The risks over the next year continue to lie with a cut and the market is pricing in a small (10%) chance that policy is eased again.
But the house view is that those risks don’t materialise and we have policy on hold at 1.5% over 2017.
Gareth Aird is senior economist with Commonwealth Bank.
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