<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.

The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" />

Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park

&nbsp;

The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.

Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.

Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”

The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”

The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.

Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.

<img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" />Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment

The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.

&nbsp;

The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.

The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.

Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.

The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.

The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.

“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.

The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.

<img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" />

The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.

Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.

In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.

The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.

It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

Property Prices

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A new report by market analyst BIS Shrapnel is predicting that property prices in most national capitals will fall over the next few years.
Not by much in Sydney and Melbourne, but Perth and Darwin aren't looking pretty.
Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart will escape the fall.
A lower population growth, increased apartment supply, a weakening economy and lack of affordability will offset the impact of lower interest rates and investor demand.
Hardest hit will be apartments, particularly in large apartment complexes, due to a record 220,000 new dwellings to be started this financial year.  
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<div>
"As these dwellings reach completion, all states with the exception of NSW will have moved into over-supply, or be experiencing an increasing over-supply," said the report's author Angie Zigomanis.
"Rising supply and weakening investor demand will play an increasing role in the price outlook of Australia's capital cities over the next three years,"  said Angie Zigomanis, the chief of BIS Shrapnel's residential research unit.
Sydney is expected to be 1 per cent lower in 2019, or a real decline of 9 per cent over the period after taking account of inflation.
Melbourne is expected to be 1 per cent lower in three years, or a real decline of 8 per cent.
House and apartment prices are expected to fall in real terms in five of the nation's eight capitals with Perth forecast to slump by 23 per cent.
Darwin will continue struggling to recover from the collapse following the end of the mining boom.
<div>
Zigomanis, a senior manager, said 2016-17 will remain "relatively stable" but underlying pressures of oversupply, falling overseas demand and affordability will begin to erode gains.
He predicts a cyclical downturn that will take until the end of the decade to recover, assuming broader economic recovery to revive the property sector.
BIS Shrapnel senior manager and study author, Mr Angie Zigomanis, said the rate of price growth in Sydney and Melbourne has slowed in 2015/16.
"Investor demand has been a key driver of the upturn in both markets and moves by the regulator to slow growth in bank lending to investors have seen investors retreat.
"At the same time, dwelling completions are rising to record levels and the increasing supply/demand imbalance will increasingly dampen price growth.
"In particular, the boom in apartment construction over the last couple of years is creating a disconnect in the supply balance between detached houses and units, with a resulting difference in their price outlook.
“In fact, nearly all capital cities are building apartments at record rates on the back of the recent strength in investor demand,” said Zigomanis.
“As these projects are progressively completed, it is likely that there will not be enough tenants in a number of cities to support rents and consequently values upon completion."
The report noted national population growth in 2014/15 was at its second lowest level since 2005/06, with net overseas migration falling from 229,400 persons in 2011/12, to 176,500 persons in 2014/15 – although there have been wide variations across the states. 
"Meanwhile, the change in gears from resource investment to domestic demand driving the economy continues to be slow and economic growth nationally is muted.
"Without a substantial acceleration in economic conditions, employment and income growth will also be slow. Even in the stronger growing states of New South Wales and Victoria, there is further limited upside to prices."
The best prospects for median house price growth over the next three years are forecast to be in the Brisbane and Hobart markets, followed by Canberra. 
Interest rates are expected to remain low enough to provide some support to prices as investors should be able to meet their mortgage repayments despite potentially having to discount rents to attract tenants.
"Consequently, owners will be able to hold their properties through this weaker period with few forced sales likely to be taking place to create significant downward pressure on prices," the report noted.
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

BIS Shrapnel sees property price falls ahead

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Melbourne houses are now at market peak, according to the HTW June 2016 property clock.
Melbourne joins NSW's Central Coast, Dubbo and Newcastle also deemed at their peak.
Melbourne was approaching the peak last month, according to the valuation firm, Herron Todd White.
Bundaberg and Townsville in Queensland are placed at the bottom of the property cycle.
<a href="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-09%20at%202.40.30%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-09%20at%202.40.30%20PM.png" alt="" width="841" height="531">
 
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Melbourne houses now at market peak: HTW June property clock

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Generalisations about property markets are a major source of misleading information for investors.
The worst examples usually emanate from economists who speak about “the Australian property market” as a single homogenous entity. 
A statement such as “Australian house prices rose 7 percent last year” implies there was 7 percent growth across the nation, when it reality there were a few locations with double-digit growth, some with minor movement, many where prices hardly moved at all and others where prices went backwards, in some cases a lot.
We’ve had three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring” and bubbles emerging, all based on a long-overdue revival of the Sydney market and action in some parts of Melbourne.
Even speaking about what happened or will happen to prices in a single major city is too much generalization to be of any use to buyers and sellers.
The entity described as “the Sydney property market” is a place with over 700 suburbs, with markets ranging from $370,000 units in Liverpool to $900,000 houses in Rouse Hill to top-end locations like Mosman where the median house price is $3 million.
Distilling all of that and more into a statement such as “Sydney property prices rose 3.6 percent in May” is the hallmark of lazy, incompetent analysts whose primary interest is publicity rather than being useful to consumers.
A study of the latest Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland provides plenty of evidence that generalised single-figure numbers to describe a large city are both pointless and misleading.
The report finds that the median house price in the Brisbane City LGA rose 6.1 percent in the past year. That’s the figure that 99% of media would report, indicating that Brisbane has a solid market but one that isn’t booming the way Sydney did until recently.
But Market Monitor delves deeper and provides figures for individual suburbs, revealing there are plenty of places which did a lot better than the generalised figure and a few where median prices were in reverse.
Middle ring areas in the Brisbane Southside precinct did well in the past year, including Coorparoo (up 11 percent), Holland Park West (up 12 percent), Macgregor (up 17 percent), Sunnybank Hills (up 12 percent), Eight Mile Plains (up 10 percent), Mansfield (up 11 percent), Wishart (up 15 percent) and Robertson (up almost 20 percent).
Similar areas on Brisbane City’s Northside have also out-performed, including Banyo (up 17 percent), Grange (up 16 percent), Hendra (up 13 percent), Wooloowin (up 16 percent), Sandgate (up 17%) and Mitchelton (up 11 percent).
In contrast, there is evidence of falling values in upmarket areas like Hamilton, Ascot, St Lucia, Teneriffe and Hawthorne, all suburbs with median house prices above $1 million. But the median price for New Farm (median house price $1.5 million) is up 15 percent.
The report also shows the impact of over-building of inner-city apartments, with the median unit price down 1.4 percent in the CBD, down 4.5 percent in Fortitude Valley and down 1.7 percent in West End. Median weekly rents have fallen in the past year in several of the inner-city unit markets, according to the REIQ data.
Heading south to the Logan City part of Greater Brisbane, the generalised figure indicates the median house price has risen only 4 percent in 12 months. But suburbs with annual growth above 8 percent include Browns Plains, Heritage Park, Loganlea, Waterford and Waterford West. Logan Central, Forestdale and Woodridge all had annual growth in the 13-15% range.
Logan City’s opposite number in Brisbane’s far north is the Moreton Bay Region, which has emerged recently as the No.1 rising market in the metropolitan area. Most suburbs in this LGA have median house prices in the $300,000s and $400,000s – and affordability is a major driver here. 
The generalised figure says house prices have risen 5% in 12 months, but many suburbs have done better, including Albany Creek, Banksia Beach, Bongaree, Burpengary East, Caboolture, Clontarf, Ferny Hills, Narangba, Toorbul, Warner and Woody Point - all of which recorded annual growth between 8 percent and 12 percent. Upmarket Newport on the Redcliffe Peninsula also grew 12 percent.
On the Gold Coast, house prices rose 5.8 percent on average, but there are 20 residential suburbs with growth between 10 percent and 20 percent.
By contrast, the apartment market is under-performing, with the median unit price in Surfers Paradise largely unchanged, while the medians for Broadbeach, Labrador and Mermaid Beach all dropped 5 percent in the past 12 months.
Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach and Mermaid Beach all have median unit prices considerably lower than five years ago, while Labrador and Southport are unchanged.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Three years of empty rhetoric about property prices “soaring": Terry Ryder

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GUEST OBSERVER
With plenty of hype around US property agent Jonathan Tepper’s predictions that Australian property prices will fall by 50 percent, here are ten reasons I think the Aussie property bubble won’t burst. 
1. Australia has high credit quality
Australia and the US are two completely different markets. Australia has higher quality home loans thanks to stricter lending criteria and requirements, which means borrowers who are approved for loans can generally afford to service them. In contrast, banks in the US at the time of the GFC were lending to people who hadn’t provided paperwork and couldn’t service the loan – a recipe for disaster.
2. Not as many foreclosures
Borrowers in the US weren’t required to stump up a deposit to get a mortgage. To make matters worse, banks had no recourse so a borrower could walk away from a property without being sued. In contrast, Australians can no longer borrow 100% of the property value, and lenders can seek financial retribution if a borrower defaults. Australian borrowers are therefore less likely to default on their home loan, resulting in fewer foreclosures.
3. You need to compare apples with apples
A major problem with Tepper’s examples is that he was talking about the US as a whole and not comparing apples with apples. We need to compare prominent cities with other prominent cities, like Sydney with New York, which didn’t have much of a collapse during the GFC. No one would compare Logan in Queensland with Manhattan, would they? It just doesn’t make sense.
4. Financial bodies are closely monitoring the market
Down under, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is keeping a close eye on the market and responding swiftly. For example, last year when APRA found there were too many investors driving up the Australian property market, it brought in new regulations that required lenders to reduce their investor loan books. The banks responded quickly and as a result we haven’t seen a major drop in the property market.
5. We have a strong employment market
For a 40-50% property collapse to occur, there need to be massive job losses and foreclosures – but we are seeing the opposite in Australia, as unemployment has dropped to around 6%.
6. There’s a limited amount of land available
The US is covered coast to coast with property, whereas in Australia we are restricted to areas around the coast where there is water and amenities, so we have a limited amount of properties available. We also have record migration at the moment, which will underpin prices for land.
7. Continued property demand from foreign investors
The Australian market is also being propped up by continued investment by overseas buyers from countries like China.
8. The market is similar to 2003
If you compare the percentage of disposable income today to what it was in 2003, it is somewhat similar. Back then, the RBA increased the official cash rate and prices slowed down. However, prices still moved along with inflation – they didn’t drop. So we’ve seen this happen before and we are just as leveraged now as we were then.
9. The RBA has room to move
The good news is today the Reserve Bank of Australia still has 2% to play with, so if the market did start to collapse the RBA could push the official cash rate to 0%, which would help homeowners get through the tough period financially.
10. We have negative gearing
The US didn’t have negative gearing when the GFC occurred – and still doesn’t today. But tax benefits Down Under drive behaviour as many investors are willing to lose a portion of their wages for the benefit of capital gains and bringing down their taxable income. Even if negative gearing concessions were to be slashed, property prices are unlikely to drop by 50%.
So where will the Australian property market go?
Property clearance rates are improving from last year despite predictions the market would keep dropping, so I’m still tipping prices will go up by 3-4% and will keep up with inflation. 
Watch this space…
STEVE JOVCEVSKI is a property investment and home loan negotiator at <a href="https://mozo.com.au/" target="_blank">Mozo.com.au</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Ten reasons the property bubble isn't going to burst: Mozo's Steve Jovcevski

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Almost everyday there's a new contradictory report backed up with data and opinion on Sydney's anticipated price direction. Who to believe? The spoiler or spruiker? What to do with your life?
The likelihood is no-one really knows, especially given the negative gearing doubt, but owner occupiers should thoughtfully proceed with caution in this low interest rate environment, while investors will continue t weight up their chase for yield without emotion.
Estate agent John McGrath recently advised that at the end of housing booms, buyers can get a bit obsessed with timing.
"They often hold off believing (or rather, hoping) prices will fall and this delays their purchase," he said, suggesting it comes at a potential cost.
He says after being in the game for 32 years that buying the best property you can afford, when you can afford it; and holding it for the long term is always the best play.
"Believe me, time in the market is much more important than timing the market when you buy," he suggested.
True, but overpay and then sell during the dips Sydney has periodically recorded in recent years, and it's a costly loss. 
Recently $2.62 million secured a Woollahra terrace that sold at $2.7 million in 2007, which provides delicious conversation at the home buyers' house warming.
At Rose Bay, a Harry Seidler-designed penthouse sold last week for around the same $5.6 million price bought it for a decade ago.
The 2/20 Ian Street, Rose Bay apartment sold on Friday ahead of a planned auction through 1st City agents Alexander Gold and Rod Fox.
 
There are plenty of near backward prices undermining another adage that Sydney property doubles every seven years.
The more recent housing cycles have necessarily seen this adage adapted to every 10 years.
But I saw a Macquarie Street, Sydney CBD apartment sell recently at $2 million, having been bought off the plan in 1999 at $1.01 million.
Nationally only 32 percent of homes are currently reselling at double or more than their purchase price, typically owned for 17 years.
Cameron Kusher at CoreLogic RP Data did some research on the decade to January 2016, finding home values across the combined capital cities increased by 72 percent which suggests values aren't doubling over the decade.
If we look at the split between houses and units, house values are 73 percent higher compared to 64 percent increase in unit values.
Although combined capital city home values haven’t doubled over the past decade, the previous decade was quite a different story.
Between January 1996 and January 2006 combined capital city home values increased by 151 percent with house values up 159 percent and unit values 110 percent higher. B
Taking a look at value growth across individual capital cities shows a diversity in results as Melbourne was the only capital city housing market where home values doubled over the past decade.
Home values in Sydney and Darwin have each recorded increases of more than 75% over the past decade.
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra increased by less than 50%. 
But over the 10 years to January 2006, home values more than doubled across every capital.
It all suggests the days of rapid value rises are behind us, or or at least for most of us.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
 
 
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It's taking longer to double your property price

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The housing market concluded 2015 with a whimper, with national house prices falling again at the national level in December. However, strong price growth in the first half of the year meant that prices were still up solidly over the past year.
But the current environment of subdued demand is likely to see price growth remain sluggish as we move into 2016.
<a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.25.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.25.42%20AM.png" alt="" width="891" height="258"> 
Prices fell across the key markets of Sydney and Melbourne in December in seasonally adjusted terms. Prices in Sydney have now fallen for three consecutive months – the first such run in nearly five years. 
Prices are being driven by softer demand and sentiment in the housing sector. Tighter regulation and higher interest rates have contributed to auction clearance rates falling from their recent peak. As clearance rates dipped further in December, to a three-year low in Sydney, house prices have been correspondingly soft (Figure 1). 
<a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.46%20AM.png" alt="" width="806" height="580">
Falling prices were prevalent across most of the smaller capitals too in December. However, one brighter spot was Brisbane, which experienced rising prices over the past two months. This is consistent with our belief that Queensland’s economy has turned the corner, supporting housing sentiment. In addition, the absence of earlier price growth to the extent of Sydney or Melbourne means that there is less room for unwinding over the near term (Figure 2). 
<a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.57%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.28.57%20AM.png" alt="" width="797" height="547">
<a href="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.31.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-11%20at%2010.31.55%20AM.png" alt="" width="780" height="552">
 
Cherelle Murphy is co-head of Australian economics, ANZ and Daniel Gradwell is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Australian house prices finished 2015 on a whimper: ANZ Research

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GUEST OBSERVER
Property prices will rise next year, despite some plateauing in recent weeks.
The late 2015 Melbourne property market has been a remarkably balanced affair in terms of the relative power of buyers and sellers. Supply has been strong, with a record number of 1000-plus auction weekends. But there has also been enough buyers out there to soak up the supply. Only just though, as evidenced by the lack of price movement since the end of winter.
After the strength of the market over the preceding three years, it is tempting to extrapolate this result as the turning point downwards for the market. But I suspect there is some more capital growth to come off the back of residual momentum.
Come late February 2016, when the property auction market reopens, I expect buyers will once again outnumber sellers.  This is a common seasonal characteristic of the early autumn market, just as there tends to be a glut of sellers in the late spring market. 
Buyers are typically ‘ready and keen’ to buy sooner in the calendar year after the long summer holidays than sellers.
There are of course headwinds for the market: a strong pipeline of new properties, especially apartments, adding to supply; tighter prudential lending rules making borrowing slightly more expensive and scarce; overseas buyer demand is moderating after a strengthening of foreign investment rules; falling rental yields; and, not least, the impact of three years’ capital growth on affordability.
On the other hand, interest rates remain at a historically low level and an interest rate rise is a distant likelihood. Even with softer rental yields, prospective investors enjoy an unusually small ‘funding gap’ – the difference between their borrowing costs and the net rental return.
Allied to this, participation in the market is likely to be supported by the relatively benign economic conditions: stable unemployment, low inflation and reasonable consumer confidence.”
Winter Blues?
The outlook becomes more uncertain in the second half of 2016.
By June 2016, it will be 15 quarters, or just under four years, since the start of the latest upswing in Melbourne property prices. That’s an impressive run. It is almost inevitable that there will be a pause or even a downturn at some point in the not too distant future. 
However, should it turn out that we are not at the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s cash rate interest rate reduction phase – which may be the case given that few of us would have predicted even a year ago that the cash rate would go as low as today’s 2% – then price growth may persist, albeit modestly, across 2016.”
Where will prices be in 2026?
Although fun to crystal ball gaze into 2016, thinking about where prices will be in ten years’ time – in 2026 – is more worthwhile.
Ultimately, if you’re planning to invest in property next year, it should be with the intention to stick with that asset for at least seven years and ideally ten.  Over that longer time frame, prices are far less volatile and more predictable than they are year-to-year.  Choose a great asset and I can’t tell you whether it will rise or fall in value next year, but I’m very certain it will double in value after 10 years.
By great assets I mean established one- and two-bedroom apartments and two-bedroom period-style houses on quiet, attractive residential streets in inner suburban Melbourne that are proximate to transport, village-type shopping strips, schools and health facilities. Select older-style architecture and all units should have dedicated off-street parking and be in blocks containing no more than around 20 apartments.
What to avoid in 2016
Whilst it is difficult to call when the market will turn, there are certain parts that should be avoided in 2016.
The Federal Government has been vigorous over recent months in putting in place and policing measures that address widespread non-compliant property purchases by non-residents. Whilst a small proportion of buyers overall, overseas buyers were sufficiently concentrated in some school-belt Melbourne eastern suburbs to push prices beyond fair value.  We anticipate that there may be a pullback in prices in suburbs such as Balwyn, Box Hill and Mont Albert in 2016, as these markets adapt to a fall in demand.
The high rise multi-apartment sector in our CBD and surrounds will almost certainly struggle under the weight of a massive pipeline of new properties expected to flow into the market over the next 12 months. It’s hard to have a good word to say about a sector where so many buyers are marketed a dream and sold a nightmare. 
But let me try: If making money is not your goal and you want to be in the city, then you may be able to buy an affordable high rise apartment in 2016. But make sure you buy it second hand.  You’ll probably secure a 20%-plus discount on the price of new apartments because you’re not paying for a developer’s marketing costs and you’re dealing with a vendor who cannot sell it to overseas buyers because it isn’t new.
Paul Nugent is a director of <a href="https://www.wakelin.com.au" target="_blank">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors.
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Further growth for Melbourne property prices in early 2016: Wakelin's Paul Nugent

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Aircraft noise has had minimal, if any, impact on property prices in suburbs near or under the flight paths to Brisbane Airport, a QUT analysis of 26 years of property sales, rental and investment performance has found.
The study found property prices in some high-value suburbs with high noise complaints rose at a greater rate than other similar suburbs unaffected by aircraft noise.
Property economist Professor Chris Eves and Andrea Blake from QUT’s School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment and the QUT Air Transport Innovation Centre analysed price, saleability, investment performance and capital growth from 1988 to 2014 of residential properties in 40 Brisbane suburbs either near the airport or under a flight path.
“It is the most detailed and comprehensive analysis of the impact of aircraft noise ever undertaken in Australia,” Professor Eves said. The study was commissioned by Brisbane Airport Corporation.
“In total we looked at more than 180,000 sales transactions in 40 suburbs ranging from those whose residents recorded the highest number of noise complaints to those which reported minimal or no aircraft noise.
“Our findings suggest that factors such as proximity to transport, the Brisbane CBD, schools, recreation facilities, the airport and other services, far outweigh any negative impact experienced as a consequence of being under a flight path or from aircraft noise.”
Professor Eves said the suburbs were classified by the number of aircraft noise complaints recorded by Air Services Australia over the past five years. These suburbs were classified  as having high, moderate or minimal/no noise complaints.
“Our analysis shows very little difference in growth of house prices across high-value suburbs regardless of where they were situated or their exposure to aircraft noise.
“For example, Bulimba, which is under an existing flight path and records moderate noise complaints, has capital returns slightly higher than New Farm which is not subject to any noise complaints.
“The capital returns for Ascot and Balmoral, which are currently not under a flight path, are less than the capital returns for Bulimba.”
Professor Eves said units and townhouses under Brisbane flight paths also showed no impact on investment performance from aircraft noise.
“Rental properties under the existing main southern flight path, which attracts the highest level of noise complaints, have a rental market increasing at the same percentage as properties not located under an existing flight path,” he said.
“In fact, over the 26 years, units and townhouses in the high noise complaint suburbs showed an average annual capital return of 7.66 per cent, which is higher than the capital returns in the moderate noise complaint suburbs of 7.40 per cent, but slightly lower than capital return for no noise complaint suburbs.
“In higher value, middle socio-economic suburbs, two of the highest average annual capital returns for the 26-year period for houses were achieved by Camp Hill (9.52 per cent) and Cannon Hill (9.72 per cent).
“Each of these suburbs is under the main southern flight path and subject to high noise complaints. In contrast, Bardon with minimal/no noise complaints achieved 9.02 per cent.”
Professor Eves said Hendra, another higher value middle socio-economic suburb, adjoining the airport, had recorded moderate noise complaints but outdid them all and achieved an average annual capital return of 10.9 per cent.
“Hendra is not currently under a flight path but will be when the New Parallel Runway opens in 2020,” he said.
“Even when we looked at the only two lower- value, middle socioeconomic suburbs in the study, we found similar effects.
“Mt Gravatt East, which records moderate noise complaints under the existing flight path, had, at 7.93 per cent, a higher average annual capital return than the Brisbane median of 7.72 per cent.
“In contrast Chermside West, which has minimal/no noise complaints under the existing flight path, had below the median growth of 6.46 per cent?
“Overall the study found that the value and price of housing and units in Brisbane located under flight paths are determined by a range of factors other than aircraft noise.”
Professor Eves said that when the new proposed flight paths open in 2020 there would be many suburbs which had less noise because aircraft movements would be shared.
Brisbane Airport Corporation (BAC) corporate relations head Rachel Crowley said the potential negative impact on property values was a cause of concern for people living near an airport or under a flight path.
“We’re pleased that this study may provide some comfort to people who may be anxious about whether or not their property value is constrained by their location under a flight path,” Ms Crowley said.
“We also hope this study may convince property developers, vendors and real estate agents that being open and transparent about the presence of a flight path should not negatively impact sale price.
“Airports are essential national infrastructure and the importance of their ability to operate unencumbered cannot be over-stated.  
“Queensland is in the fortunate position of having its major gateway airport  both well-located and well-protected by a significant buffer of industrial land which protects residents from the worst aircraft noise experienced in cities which have residential development far closer to the airport.”
Suburbs in the study were:
High noise complaints 
Morningside,
Coorparoo
Camp Hill
Cannon Hill
Tarragindi
Seven Hills
Tingalpa
Norman Park
Holland Park West
The Gap
Murrarie
Belmont
Moderate Noise Complaints
Gordon Park
Northgate
Bulimba
Mount Gravatt East
Balmoral
Clayfield
Ashgrove
Chapel Hill
Wynnum
Fairfield
Hawthorne
Ascot
Minimal/no noise complaints
Annerley
Mitchelton
New Farm
Mansfield
Virginia
Chelmer
Sherwood
Jindalee
Forest Lake
Kenmore
Graceville
Hamilton
Suburbs under south flight path
Morningside
Camp Hill
Seven Hills
Mt Gravatt East
Balmoral
Murrarie
Tarragindi
Coorparoo
North flight path
Ascot
Hendra
Albion
Chermside West
Ashgrove
Bardon
New flight path (2020)
Hamilton
Annerley
Stafford
New Farm
No flight path
Mansfield
Mitchelton
Wooloowin 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

What noise? Property prices in Brisbane suburbs under flight paths continue their climb

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A new report suggests retail property prices will be built up by investors due to tightening yields, improved consumer sentiment and other asset classes not providing the same stability.
The LJ Hooker Commercial Retail Market Monitor said the value of retail transactions dropped in 2014-15, with the downturn attributed to the lack of available stock, with regional centres hit the hardest.
“Investment transaction activity was a little subdued in the first half of 2015, constrained in dollar terms by the low level of stock available,’’ he said.
“Regional centres have been consolidated on the back of improved retail spending.
"Queensland’s capital and secondary markets experienced a halving of retail turnover from 5.3% in 2013 to 2.5% in July this year.
“But we’re expecting a considerable turn-around for Queensland eclipsed, not surprisingly, only by Sydney and New South Wales over the next two years."
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Tight yields to drive retail property investors

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Brisbane is gaining a reputation as Australia's most affordable eastern capital with price growth potential, according to Herron Todd White.
Herron Todd White's October Month in Review found entry level and mid-range property within 10km of the CBD is going great guns and said buyers are 'sheep-dogging' over each other when an appropriately priced property hits the market - preferably second hand unit stock.
HTW said it’s price accessible, in locations that have a lot of rental demand and for a few grand, you can spruce up the space and add some value.
"Attached housing in the $330,000 to $550,000 range is doing well. Try Coorparoo and Greenslopes for units and townhouses at $330,000 to $400,000. That price point will land you an unrenovated, 2-bed, 1-bath abode in a 1980s complex. Townhouses at $450,000 to $550,000 are 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom for the record," HTW noted.
"For detached housing, the sweet spot is in the $600,000 to $800,000 bracket around the mid/ inner ring,
"You can get great quality homes at a fraction of the Sydney prices. Coorparoo, Camp Hill and Norman Park provide high set 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom dwelling in average condition on a 405 square metre to 607 square metre allotments at this price point. Our expectation is that this sector will continue to perform over the remainder of the year.
"Capital growth is tracking at approximately 5% per annum for the past 12 months and there is a good level of supply at present to match the demand, which is coming predominately from owner- occupiers."
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