Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Property Prices

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Melbourne house prices will decline by just 1% in 2019 after a 9% fall in 2018, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
They also forecast that Melbourne house prices will rise by about 4% in 2020. 
Domain Economist Trent Wilshire said: "Melbourne house prices are predicted to fall by about 11% from a peak of $910,000 in December 2017 to their lowest point of about $800,000 in mid-2019."
"At this low point, Melbourne house prices will be back at their late 2016 level."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Melbourne%20Domain%201.JPG" alt="">
 
Source: Domain
Domain has forecast that Melbourne unit prices are to fall by about 1-2% in 2018, and then prices are expected to grow by about 1% in 2019 and 2020.
Melbourne unit prices are predicted to fall by about 3% from their peak of $507,000 in March 2017 to their lowest point of about $490,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Melbourne%20Domain%202.JPG" alt="">
 
Source: Domain 
"As in other capitals, tighter lending conditions and weak sentiment will weigh on Melbourne property prices in 2019," Wiltshire said. 
"But Victoria’s unemployment rate is falling and Melbourne’s population growth is expected to remain very strong, with annual growth remaining above 2% over the next few years."
"This will help to absorb the large pipeline of new housing supply expected to hit the market over the next couple of years."
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne house prices will slip only 1% in 2019: Domain

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House prices will keep falling in the first half of 2019 before turning around and growing modestly, resulting in annual growth of about 1% over the year to December 2019, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
Domain predict house price growth will increase to 4% over the year to December 2020.
Overall this is a predicted fall of 7% from the 2017 price peak of $820,000 to a low of about $760,000 in mid-2019. At this low point, Australian house prices will be back at their 2016 levels.
Domain Economist, Trent Wiltshire said: "leading indicators of prices, such as low clearance rates, falling home loan approvals and a rising stock of listings suggest prices will continue to fall in the months ahead, with Australian house prices expected to fall by about 6% over the year to December 2018."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/AUS%20forecast.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
Australian unit prices are anticipated to grow by 2% in 2019 and 3% in 2020.
Unit prices are expected to bottom out in early 2019 after falling by 3% over the year to December 2018.
They are predicted to fall by approximately 5% from their peak of $568,000 in June 2017.
At this low point of about $540,000, unit prices will be back at their late 2016 level.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/AUS%20forecast%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
"We expect unit prices to be more resilient than house prices for two main reasons," Wiltshire said.
"First, there was a smaller run-up in unit prices in the boom period, so there is less market ‘froth’ to dissipate over the 2017-2019 period.
"Second, state government stamp duty concessions will hold up unit prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne."
Solid population growth, low unemployment and low interest rates will underpin Australian property price growth in the medium term.
More restrictive lending conditions will continue to weigh on prices in the immediate future.
"Eventually, borrowers will begin to adjust to this new normal (including having a better understanding of how much they can borrow and how long it takes to secure a loan) and lending will begin to grow again, although at a modest pace," Wiltshire said. 
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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Australian house prices to bounce back in 2019 and 2020: Domain

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Property prices across Australian capital cities fell in the June quarter 2018 with the weighted average median prices decreasing by 0.8 per cent for houses and 0.3 per cent for other dwellings, according to the latest report from the Real Estate Institute of Australia.
The Real Estate Market Facts report shows the weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities slid to $765,098 over the quarter, with prices dropping in all capital cities except for Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart.
The weighted average median price for other dwellings decreased to $590,935 over the quarter, with prices falling in all capital cities except for Melbourne, Brisbane, Hobart and Darwin.
Canberra had the largest fall in house prices and Adelaide had the largest decline in other dwellings. Adelaide has both the lowest median price for houses at $471,000 and the lowest median price for other dwellings at $354,167.
Over the quarter, the median rent for three-bedroom houses increased in Canberra and Darwin, remained steady in Perth and, decreased in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart. The median rent for two-bedroom other dwellings increased in Canberra and Hobart, remained steady in Perth and decreased in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin. Hobart had the largest increase while Brisbane had the largest decrease.
The weighted average vacancy rate for the eight capital cities fell to 2.5 per cent during the June quarter indicating a tighter rental market. Canberra has the tightest market with a vacancy rate of 0.8 per cent.
Over the past 12 months, loan numbers have decreased by 3.8 per cent across the country with declines in all states and territories except Tasmania. The largest decrease of 13.6 per cent was in Western Australia.In Sydney and Melbourne – the two cities which have had the largest price increases over the past few years – the drop in loans is attributable to APRA restrictions on investment loans and more stringent home lending criteria.
The June quarter figures reflect reports of a changing dynamic in the market, particularly in the nation’s major cities.
Malcolm Gunning is the REIA President
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Housing prices continue to decline: Malcolm Gunning 

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Residential property prices are expected to slump by about 8%, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.
The macro-prudential controls, rising funding and compliance costs and tougher approvals checks on property investors will also contribute to loan growth falling from 6% to 4%, it warns.  
"The risk is skewed to the downside given an increasing focus on responsible lending," the Australian Financial Review reports. 
"The banks' modelling suggests the likely decline in prices will continue throughout 2018," the report noted adding the fall will be in "high single digits". 
Both the quantity and availability of credit is the key constraint on growth, the report states.
"With national prices down 1.5% from the peak late last year, it is clear the housing market has turned," the report states.
"But in contrast with others in the market who view the worst as behind us, we expect prices to fall further throughout 2018, as credit availability is tightened further and a stretched consumer reassesses the outlook.
"While the backlog of approvals not yet completed remains high, we expect some projects to be shelved given tighter credit conditions."
However ANZ economists have suggested “the worst is behind” the property market predicting a 2 per cent gain in 2018 and 4 per cent next year.
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The worst is not behind us: Morgan Stanley's tip 8% price decline

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Over 40 percent of respondents of a recent survey said they were reliant on future house price growth to achieve future life / financial goals, with 10 percent completely reliant.
The study of 1500 Australian adults also saw 38 percent want prices to increase while 37 percent want them to fall.
Where you sit largely comes down to your property ownership status: 39 percent of those who own the home they live in and 47 percent who own an investment property indicated they are ‘reliant’ on future prices, presumably increasing, while 48 percent of those who don’t own a property also say they are reliant, presumably wanting prices to fall.
Younger respondents indicated they are more reliant on future house prices than older: 51 percent of Millennials (25 to 39 year olds) said they are reliant compared to 30 percent of Baby Boomers (55-74 year olds).
Most tellingly, the survey indicates more Australians would benefit from property prices falling than rising, with only 28 percent indicating they’d benefit by selling if prices continued to rise compared to 47 percent who said they’d benefit by buying in if property prices fell.
A quarter of home owners happy to see house prices to fall
ME home loan expert Patrick Nolan said he was surprised to find 37 percent of respondents want property prices to fall, including 24 percent of those who own a home and even 20 percent of those with an investment property, compared to 38 percent of who want prices to continue rising 38 percent.
“Traditionally Australians fall into two camps when it comes to property prices: owners, who want them to rise, and non-owners, who want them to fall.
“But with high prices disrupting the dream of home ownership and the benefits that brings, views are changing.”
“That property owners were willing to see asset values fall is a sure sign house prices had reached heights many think are unfair,” Nolan said.
When asked why they want prices to fall, the overwhelming reason given was to help address the housing affordability issue (57 percent), a sentiment expressed by 97 percent of those with property.
The bulk of those wanting house prices to continue rising are property owners: 49 percent of home owners and 55 percent of investors.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

New survey confirms the importance of property to Australians

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Generalised commentary masquerading as analysis is the curse of the real estate consumer.
Much of what appears in mainstream media about residential real estate discusses Australia as a single market. That’s an early clue for consumers that the commentator has shallow knowledge.
If you’re reading something from an alleged expert and they’re talking about what’s happening with “the Australian property market” or forecasting trends with “Australian housing prices”, turn the page because you’ve tuned into a charlatan.
Too much has been written about “the Australian property boom” and “the national affordability crisis”.
A core problem is that so much of the commentary comes out of the Sydney and the situation in our biggest city dominates the thinking and attitudes of commentators. We have outcry about a national problem that generally does not exist and “solutions” that will slug the whole nation to fix issues isolated to a small section of the national geography.
The 20 million Australians who don’t live in Sydney must wonder what the fuss is about. Any resident of Perth, Adelaide or Darwin would be bemused by the ongoing debate about soaring prices, affordability catastrophes and the need for major national action.
Many of the worst culprits for generalised and usually misinformed commentary are based overseas. Often they’re major international organisations or ratings agencies which seek to manufacture publicity by making dire warnings about Australian real estate based on generalised national statistics pumped up by the strength of the Sydney market.
There are plenty of local pontificators making the same mistake, most of them economists who should never be consulted for comment on residential real estate, a subject that’s not within their area of expertise, if indeed they have one.
Anyone who thinks Australian has had a national property boom recently should compare the price growth statistics for the capital cities in 2016 with the results in 2002 and 2003.
Back in 2002/2003, the last time we had a genuine nationwide boom, every capital city had sharply rising prices. In 2003, according to the ABS, house prices grew at least 13 percent in every one of the eight capital cities, including four where prices rose by more than 20 percent.
The ABS figures for last year have a very different look about them.  Only Melbourne and Sydney managed double-digit growth and only just. Two cities, Perth and Darwin, recorded falling prices, while Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide managed only moderate (4 or 5 percent) rises. Hobart rose 8 percent, according to these numbers.
When you compare this with that genuine boom at the start of the century, it’s apparent that even Sydney’s growth was tame compared with back then. Melbourne, meanwhile, has mostly been below 10 percent with its annual house price growth in the past four years, only recently bursting out into double digits (and now leads the nation, according to most sources).
Now the growing chorus among the generalised pontificators is that “the Australian property boom is over”.
If they’re talking about Sydney, they’re probably right. But out there in the heartland beyond the biggest cities, different things are happening, including places where markets are rising, even as Sydney is subsiding.
They include regional New South Wales, which now has far more rising markets than Sydney does.
The same is true of regional Queensland, which has many ascendant markets (as well as a few that you might still want to avoid), much more so than Brisbane at the moment.
Melbourne is less advanced than Sydney in its growth cycle, so has more time to run with price growth than Sydney does.
Both Hobart and Canberra have sparked to life recently on the back of improving local economies and are likely to continue heading in the opposite direction to Sydney.
Adelaide’s market is quite busy but is unlikely to deliver strong price growth, other than in selected pockets, because it lacks the economic and population growth impetus of other major cities.
Perth has been going backwards throughout the four years that Sydney has been advancing – and now, as Sydney fades, Perth is showing the early signs of recovery.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

As Sydney fades, Perth shows early signs of recovery: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Regulatory tightening is working to cool the overheated property market without a hard landing, according to Treasurer Scott Morrison.
"The data shows to date that we are moving towards a safe landing when it comes to housing markets in Sydney and the pendulum swinging back in the favour of home owners and first home buyers, which is good news," Morrison said in Sydney on Monday, according to The Australian Financial Review.
In March, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced restrictions on interest-only loans in response to record high household debt levels and the measure was has been "fully supported by the government”, he said.
Interest-only loans must be restricted to 30 per cent of new residential mortgage loans, APRA said.
"We are seeing the outcomes of that now; that very careful approach that we have been encouraging and supporting now having this impact in the markets in Sydney and in Melbourne where things are easing off to a safe landing, not the hard landing that Labor's policies would deliver."
However, the CoreLogic Home Value Index <a href="/news/slowest-quarterly-rate-of-dwelling-value-growth-since-december-2015-corelogic">recorded a recovery</a> from the 1.1 percent fall in May, with an 1.8 percent rise in capital city dwelling values over June, with Sydney home prices up 2.2 percent.
Meanwhile, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed building approvals fell 5.6 per cent in May, the second fall in three months.
Asked whether he was comfortable with how the housing market was tracking, Morrison said the data on housing was "an endorsement of the careful approach the government has been taking”, the AFR reported.
He again reiterated that the sober, careful approach “is providing that very calm and considered way to deal with what is a very real issue for so many Australians”. 
Morrison had advocated a scalpel-like approach to the housing affordability issue.
"I'm encouraged by the fact that we are seeing more owner occupiers, first home buyers coming back into the market. We want to see that happen."
 
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Treasurer Scott Morrison says housing market poised for 'safe landing' after regulatory curbs

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GUEST OBSERVER
It is yet too soon to gauge the true impact of recent macro-prudential measures on the housing market, but recent reads on prices suggest the market could already be close to its peak.
According to CoreLogic’s hedonic price measure, property prices fell in May, including in the major boom cities of Sydney and Melbourne – prices fell for both detached houses and units, although the latter fell by more. Declines were not uniform, however, with dwelling prices rising in both Brisbane and Adelaide.
Mortgage lending has cooled only slightly, but is expected to be weighed down as lenders look to stem the flow of interest only loans (with the biggest impact likely to be seen in investor credit). Mortgage credit rose by a steady (albeit subdued) 0.5% m/m in April, as investor credit actually outpaced owner-occupied credit modestly.
Looming headwinds from prudential tightening, combined with rising housing supply, affordability constraints and modest wages growth (which looks set to continue), validate our expectation for the housing market to cool from here.
That said, while the risks have certainly compounded, we continue to expect an orderly conclusion to the long-running housing boom in major markets, with the profile also helped by additional policy announcements of late to support first home buyers.
Our national forecasts for houses in 2017 are 7.2 percent in 2017 and 4.3 percent in 2018. Unit prices are forecast to rise 6.8 percent in 2017, but will fall modestly in 2018 (-0.4 percent).
Forecasts for 2017 anticipate additional modest growth in coming months, suggesting a degree of downside risk.
Dwelling investment dropped by a greater than expected 4.4 percent in Q4, occurring despite a pipeline of construction projects that is close to record levels – although weather related disruptions may have contributed to the result.
However, it is possible that supply is being constrained by other factors, including deliberate delays by developers in response to rising settlement concerns. Capacity constraints and tighter credit availability are other possible explanations.
Declines were seen across both new and used dwellings (down 4 percent) and alterations &amp; additions (renovations, down 5.2 percent). Growth in dwelling investment over the year was also soft at -2.5 percent y/y.
New building approvals have come off from their highs, but have held steady at higher than expected levels in recent months.
That might suggest the housing construction boom has a little further to run (despite recent declines in dwelling investment), although our economic modelling still points to significant downside risks to the outlook. Overall, dwelling investment is expected to be flat in 2017 (revised down due to very weak Q1 outcome), before turning modestly negative (-0.4 percent and -2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively). 
Hints that housing prices are starting to peak will be welcome by the Reserve Bank who remain concerned about elevated household debt. While it is early days, this is consistent with our view that housing prices will slow from here, particularly given further tightening in credit growth as banks are forced to cut back on interest only loans. No rate hikes are likely however until mid- 2019.  
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Property market could already be close to its peak: Alan Oster

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Home prices in capital cities fell by more than one% in May, including falls in Sydney and Melbourne, but experts say it is too early to call a housing downturn.
In Sydney, home prices fell 1.3% while Melbourne’s dropped 1.7%, according to Corelogic's latest Hedonic Home Value Index.
Hobart had the steepest fall at 4.8%.
National house prices fell 1.1%, driven mainly by the declines in Sydney and Melbourne, Corelogic said.
The property analytics firm’s head of research Tim Lawless said the jury was still out on whether the housing market had peaked given previous strong rebounds in 2015 and 2016 following dips.
“The May home value results should be viewed in the context of demonstrated seasonality; values have fallen during May in four of the past five years. Reading through the seasonality indicates that value growth in the market has lost momentum, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where affordability constraints are more evident and investors have comprised a larger proportion of housing demand,” Lawless wrote in his blog on CoreLogic.
"I wouldn't be surprised if things bounce back," Lawless was quoted as saying by The Australian Financial Review.
However, SQM Research's Louis Christopher warned the fundamental driver of housing, population growth, was still very strong, The Australian Financial Review reported.
"When the ABS population numbers came out recently, they were higher than anyone had expected. That is why oversupply has not happened," he said.
"Prices could still rise in the second half, if nothing further happens."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/02/CorelogicIndex.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/02/CorelogicIndex.png" alt="">
Year on year was a different story though, with Sydney prices increasing 11.1% while Melbourne rose 11.5%, CoreLogic data showed.
Real estate agents said it was too early to call a downturn as demand is still strong despite softer auctions clearances and sales. But they also attribute the price fall to a seasonal rise in stock, after a drought of low listings earlier in the year, the AFR said.
"People have more choice, and we haven't had that for quite a while. A little bit more stock, and interest rate chatter. People are rethinking and not pushing too hard," The Agency chief executive Matt Lahood said.
"We need a quarter to score it … it's just a bit early.
"An RBA cash rate cut could again push up prices, but Lawless said there were enough counter measures to stop that for now.
"If the cash rate falls, we are already compensated by mortgage rates pushing up higher. Already we see are higher mortgage rates for investors. If there is a rate cut, it would be followed by further macroprudential changes. They [regulators] would do their best to avoid 2015."
He added that a fall in consumer confidence has also dented the market a little. 
"Consumer sentiment towards housing, as measured by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, has shown a marked downturn in May."
Other market indicators suggest a slower pace of growth such as a reduction in market activity, a moderating trend in auction clearance rates and rising advertised stock levels, Lawless said.
But even if there was a "permanent" correction, McGrath founder John McGrath said any downturn would not be "major".
"What I do know is there is no crash coming that resembles the ones that have been speculated. I've heard about this mythical crash for over 30 years and prices just keep going up over time. But I'm equally confident that this market cycle is close to its peak," he said.
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Sydney, Melbourne home prices fell in May, but experts not calling downturn yet

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<h2 class="caption">GUEST OBSERVER</h2>
Too many people are getting overwhelmed with property prices in Australia, specifically in Melbourne and Sydney.
Scott Morrison’s recent speech identifies certain tax breaks and incentives for first home buyers and downsizers. As well as now looking to implement the 'bond aggregator' model in which new dwellings could be developed that would be targeted at people working in lower paid jobs or those who otherwise can’t generate an adequate income (such as self-funded retirees). Everything is becoming so very technical and as the government tries to shut the door on one end another will always open and loopholes will always emerge.
Something that I truly believe in regards to property supply is so simple yet continually over looked.
Victoria's population growth is approximately 100,000 people per annum a little more if you look at the Australian Demographic statistics quoting 127,000 for (Sep 15-16). If we look back we can see between June 14 to June 15 the population growth was 99,400.
Now let’s compare this to planning permits and number of dwelling approvals. Where Victoria's total approved dwellings through planning was 72,700 (June 14-15) consisting of 8,175 dwelling permits. An obvious shortfall, quite a large shortfall!
Now factor in a few other outliers that the general community does not know. Average time for development to commence and complete (dependent upon size) would be 12-18 months from planning permit issue. On an average, approximately 30% of these planning permits don’t go ahead and become obsolete.
If we look at these statistics again using year 2014- 2015 as an example.
<ul>
<li>Population 99,400</li>
<li>Dwellings approved 72,700 let’s be generous and say 80% get developed - 58,160 dwellings</li>
<li>The time those dwellings will be ready best case December 2015 - taking into consideration all permits were issued June 2014</li>
<li>Now let’s add another 49,700 as average population growth from July-Dec 2015.</li>
</ul>
In a nutshell, in 18 months from June 2014 to December 2015 we have 58,160 homes ready for use and 149,100 people moving here. Yes, now there maybe 2-3 people moving into each dwelling, however we cannot stipulate nor accept that this will be the case on every single dwelling when comparing number to the additional population growth.
My point is very simple - supply and demand is the obvious answer. However, for housing prices to become ‘a little easier on the eye’ and supply to catch up to demand, it is the efficiency of local municipalities and creating platforms and/or generic regulations where developers, owners/builders etc., will be able to use and get building faster before the influx of people becomes too great and the governments find themselves in a position where they need to make radical changes to the property market that in turn could be worse for all.
 
David Tricarico is a Co-founder of <a href="https://adepto.net.au/" target="_blank">Adepto Co.</a>
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