Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

GRAYA greenlit for riverfront St Lucia apartment development, Silk

Property Prices

<html><body>
Melbourne house prices will decline by just 1% in 2019 after a 9% fall in 2018, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
They also forecast that Melbourne house prices will rise by about 4% in 2020. 
Domain Economist Trent Wilshire said: "Melbourne house prices are predicted to fall by about 11% from a peak of $910,000 in December 2017 to their lowest point of about $800,000 in mid-2019."
"At this low point, Melbourne house prices will be back at their late 2016 level."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Melbourne%20Domain%201.JPG" alt="">
 
Source: Domain
Domain has forecast that Melbourne unit prices are to fall by about 1-2% in 2018, and then prices are expected to grow by about 1% in 2019 and 2020.
Melbourne unit prices are predicted to fall by about 3% from their peak of $507,000 in March 2017 to their lowest point of about $490,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Melbourne%20Domain%202.JPG" alt="">
 
Source: Domain 
"As in other capitals, tighter lending conditions and weak sentiment will weigh on Melbourne property prices in 2019," Wiltshire said. 
"But Victoria’s unemployment rate is falling and Melbourne’s population growth is expected to remain very strong, with annual growth remaining above 2% over the next few years."
"This will help to absorb the large pipeline of new housing supply expected to hit the market over the next couple of years."
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne house prices will slip only 1% in 2019: Domain

<html><body>
House prices will keep falling in the first half of 2019 before turning around and growing modestly, resulting in annual growth of about 1% over the year to December 2019, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
Domain predict house price growth will increase to 4% over the year to December 2020.
Overall this is a predicted fall of 7% from the 2017 price peak of $820,000 to a low of about $760,000 in mid-2019. At this low point, Australian house prices will be back at their 2016 levels.
Domain Economist, Trent Wiltshire said: "leading indicators of prices, such as low clearance rates, falling home loan approvals and a rising stock of listings suggest prices will continue to fall in the months ahead, with Australian house prices expected to fall by about 6% over the year to December 2018."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/AUS%20forecast.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
Australian unit prices are anticipated to grow by 2% in 2019 and 3% in 2020.
Unit prices are expected to bottom out in early 2019 after falling by 3% over the year to December 2018.
They are predicted to fall by approximately 5% from their peak of $568,000 in June 2017.
At this low point of about $540,000, unit prices will be back at their late 2016 level.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/AUS%20forecast%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
"We expect unit prices to be more resilient than house prices for two main reasons," Wiltshire said.
"First, there was a smaller run-up in unit prices in the boom period, so there is less market ‘froth’ to dissipate over the 2017-2019 period.
"Second, state government stamp duty concessions will hold up unit prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne."
Solid population growth, low unemployment and low interest rates will underpin Australian property price growth in the medium term.
More restrictive lending conditions will continue to weigh on prices in the immediate future.
"Eventually, borrowers will begin to adjust to this new normal (including having a better understanding of how much they can borrow and how long it takes to secure a loan) and lending will begin to grow again, although at a modest pace," Wiltshire said. 
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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Australian house prices to bounce back in 2019 and 2020: Domain

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Property prices across Australian capital cities fell in the June quarter 2018 with the weighted average median prices decreasing by 0.8 per cent for houses and 0.3 per cent for other dwellings, according to the latest report from the Real Estate Institute of Australia.
The Real Estate Market Facts report shows the weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities slid to $765,098 over the quarter, with prices dropping in all capital cities except for Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart.
The weighted average median price for other dwellings decreased to $590,935 over the quarter, with prices falling in all capital cities except for Melbourne, Brisbane, Hobart and Darwin.
Canberra had the largest fall in house prices and Adelaide had the largest decline in other dwellings. Adelaide has both the lowest median price for houses at $471,000 and the lowest median price for other dwellings at $354,167.
Over the quarter, the median rent for three-bedroom houses increased in Canberra and Darwin, remained steady in Perth and, decreased in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart. The median rent for two-bedroom other dwellings increased in Canberra and Hobart, remained steady in Perth and decreased in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin. Hobart had the largest increase while Brisbane had the largest decrease.
The weighted average vacancy rate for the eight capital cities fell to 2.5 per cent during the June quarter indicating a tighter rental market. Canberra has the tightest market with a vacancy rate of 0.8 per cent.
Over the past 12 months, loan numbers have decreased by 3.8 per cent across the country with declines in all states and territories except Tasmania. The largest decrease of 13.6 per cent was in Western Australia.In Sydney and Melbourne – the two cities which have had the largest price increases over the past few years – the drop in loans is attributable to APRA restrictions on investment loans and more stringent home lending criteria.
The June quarter figures reflect reports of a changing dynamic in the market, particularly in the nation’s major cities.
Malcolm Gunning is the REIA President
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Housing prices continue to decline: Malcolm Gunning 

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Residential property prices are expected to slump by about 8%, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.
The macro-prudential controls, rising funding and compliance costs and tougher approvals checks on property investors will also contribute to loan growth falling from 6% to 4%, it warns.  
"The risk is skewed to the downside given an increasing focus on responsible lending," the Australian Financial Review reports. 
"The banks' modelling suggests the likely decline in prices will continue throughout 2018," the report noted adding the fall will be in "high single digits". 
Both the quantity and availability of credit is the key constraint on growth, the report states.
"With national prices down 1.5% from the peak late last year, it is clear the housing market has turned," the report states.
"But in contrast with others in the market who view the worst as behind us, we expect prices to fall further throughout 2018, as credit availability is tightened further and a stretched consumer reassesses the outlook.
"While the backlog of approvals not yet completed remains high, we expect some projects to be shelved given tighter credit conditions."
However ANZ economists have suggested “the worst is behind” the property market predicting a 2 per cent gain in 2018 and 4 per cent next year.
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The worst is not behind us: Morgan Stanley's tip 8% price decline

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Over 40 percent of respondents of a recent survey said they were reliant on future house price growth to achieve future life / financial goals, with 10 percent completely reliant.
The study of 1500 Australian adults also saw 38 percent want prices to increase while 37 percent want them to fall.
Where you sit largely comes down to your property ownership status: 39 percent of those who own the home they live in and 47 percent who own an investment property indicated they are ‘reliant’ on future prices, presumably increasing, while 48 percent of those who don’t own a property also say they are reliant, presumably wanting prices to fall.
Younger respondents indicated they are more reliant on future house prices than older: 51 percent of Millennials (25 to 39 year olds) said they are reliant compared to 30 percent of Baby Boomers (55-74 year olds).
Most tellingly, the survey indicates more Australians would benefit from property prices falling than rising, with only 28 percent indicating they’d benefit by selling if prices continued to rise compared to 47 percent who said they’d benefit by buying in if property prices fell.
A quarter of home owners happy to see house prices to fall
ME home loan expert Patrick Nolan said he was surprised to find 37 percent of respondents want property prices to fall, including 24 percent of those who own a home and even 20 percent of those with an investment property, compared to 38 percent of who want prices to continue rising 38 percent.
“Traditionally Australians fall into two camps when it comes to property prices: owners, who want them to rise, and non-owners, who want them to fall.
“But with high prices disrupting the dream of home ownership and the benefits that brings, views are changing.”
“That property owners were willing to see asset values fall is a sure sign house prices had reached heights many think are unfair,” Nolan said.
When asked why they want prices to fall, the overwhelming reason given was to help address the housing affordability issue (57 percent), a sentiment expressed by 97 percent of those with property.
The bulk of those wanting house prices to continue rising are property owners: 49 percent of home owners and 55 percent of investors.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

New survey confirms the importance of property to Australians

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Generalised commentary masquerading as analysis is the curse of the real estate consumer.
Much of what appears in mainstream media about residential real estate discusses Australia as a single market. That’s an early clue for consumers that the commentator has shallow knowledge.
If you’re reading something from an alleged expert and they’re talking about what’s happening with “the Australian property market” or forecasting trends with “Australian housing prices”, turn the page because you’ve tuned into a charlatan.
Too much has been written about “the Australian property boom” and “the national affordability crisis”.
A core problem is that so much of the commentary comes out of the Sydney and the situation in our biggest city dominates the thinking and attitudes of commentators. We have outcry about a national problem that generally does not exist and “solutions” that will slug the whole nation to fix issues isolated to a small section of the national geography.
The 20 million Australians who don’t live in Sydney must wonder what the fuss is about. Any resident of Perth, Adelaide or Darwin would be bemused by the ongoing debate about soaring prices, affordability catastrophes and the need for major national action.
Many of the worst culprits for generalised and usually misinformed commentary are based overseas. Often they’re major international organisations or ratings agencies which seek to manufacture publicity by making dire warnings about Australian real estate based on generalised national statistics pumped up by the strength of the Sydney market.
There are plenty of local pontificators making the same mistake, most of them economists who should never be consulted for comment on residential real estate, a subject that’s not within their area of expertise, if indeed they have one.
Anyone who thinks Australian has had a national property boom recently should compare the price growth statistics for the capital cities in 2016 with the results in 2002 and 2003.
Back in 2002/2003, the last time we had a genuine nationwide boom, every capital city had sharply rising prices. In 2003, according to the ABS, house prices grew at least 13 percent in every one of the eight capital cities, including four where prices rose by more than 20 percent.
The ABS figures for last year have a very different look about them.  Only Melbourne and Sydney managed double-digit growth and only just. Two cities, Perth and Darwin, recorded falling prices, while Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide managed only moderate (4 or 5 percent) rises. Hobart rose 8 percent, according to these numbers.
When you compare this with that genuine boom at the start of the century, it’s apparent that even Sydney’s growth was tame compared with back then. Melbourne, meanwhile, has mostly been below 10 percent with its annual house price growth in the past four years, only recently bursting out into double digits (and now leads the nation, according to most sources).
Now the growing chorus among the generalised pontificators is that “the Australian property boom is over”.
If they’re talking about Sydney, they’re probably right. But out there in the heartland beyond the biggest cities, different things are happening, including places where markets are rising, even as Sydney is subsiding.
They include regional New South Wales, which now has far more rising markets than Sydney does.
The same is true of regional Queensland, which has many ascendant markets (as well as a few that you might still want to avoid), much more so than Brisbane at the moment.
Melbourne is less advanced than Sydney in its growth cycle, so has more time to run with price growth than Sydney does.
Both Hobart and Canberra have sparked to life recently on the back of improving local economies and are likely to continue heading in the opposite direction to Sydney.
Adelaide’s market is quite busy but is unlikely to deliver strong price growth, other than in selected pockets, because it lacks the economic and population growth impetus of other major cities.
Perth has been going backwards throughout the four years that Sydney has been advancing – and now, as Sydney fades, Perth is showing the early signs of recovery.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

As Sydney fades, Perth shows early signs of recovery: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Regulatory tightening is working to cool the overheated property market without a hard landing, according to Treasurer Scott Morrison.
"The data shows to date that we are moving towards a safe landing when it comes to housing markets in Sydney and the pendulum swinging back in the favour of home owners and first home buyers, which is good news," Morrison said in Sydney on Monday, according to The Australian Financial Review.
In March, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority announced restrictions on interest-only loans in response to record high household debt levels and the measure was has been "fully supported by the government”, he said.
Interest-only loans must be restricted to 30 per cent of new residential mortgage loans, APRA said.
"We are seeing the outcomes of that now; that very careful approach that we have been encouraging and supporting now having this impact in the markets in Sydney and in Melbourne where things are easing off to a safe landing, not the hard landing that Labor's policies would deliver."
However, the CoreLogic Home Value Index <a href="/news/slowest-quarterly-rate-of-dwelling-value-growth-since-december-2015-corelogic">recorded a recovery</a> from the 1.1 percent fall in May, with an 1.8 percent rise in capital city dwelling values over June, with Sydney home prices up 2.2 percent.
Meanwhile, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed building approvals fell 5.6 per cent in May, the second fall in three months.
Asked whether he was comfortable with how the housing market was tracking, Morrison said the data on housing was "an endorsement of the careful approach the government has been taking”, the AFR reported.
He again reiterated that the sober, careful approach “is providing that very calm and considered way to deal with what is a very real issue for so many Australians”. 
Morrison had advocated a scalpel-like approach to the housing affordability issue.
"I'm encouraged by the fact that we are seeing more owner occupiers, first home buyers coming back into the market. We want to see that happen."
 
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Treasurer Scott Morrison says housing market poised for 'safe landing' after regulatory curbs

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GUEST OBSERVER
It is yet too soon to gauge the true impact of recent macro-prudential measures on the housing market, but recent reads on prices suggest the market could already be close to its peak.
According to CoreLogic’s hedonic price measure, property prices fell in May, including in the major boom cities of Sydney and Melbourne – prices fell for both detached houses and units, although the latter fell by more. Declines were not uniform, however, with dwelling prices rising in both Brisbane and Adelaide.
Mortgage lending has cooled only slightly, but is expected to be weighed down as lenders look to stem the flow of interest only loans (with the biggest impact likely to be seen in investor credit). Mortgage credit rose by a steady (albeit subdued) 0.5% m/m in April, as investor credit actually outpaced owner-occupied credit modestly.
Looming headwinds from prudential tightening, combined with rising housing supply, affordability constraints and modest wages growth (which looks set to continue), validate our expectation for the housing market to cool from here.
That said, while the risks have certainly compounded, we continue to expect an orderly conclusion to the long-running housing boom in major markets, with the profile also helped by additional policy announcements of late to support first home buyers.
Our national forecasts for houses in 2017 are 7.2 percent in 2017 and 4.3 percent in 2018. Unit prices are forecast to rise 6.8 percent in 2017, but will fall modestly in 2018 (-0.4 percent).
Forecasts for 2017 anticipate additional modest growth in coming months, suggesting a degree of downside risk.
Dwelling investment dropped by a greater than expected 4.4 percent in Q4, occurring despite a pipeline of construction projects that is close to record levels – although weather related disruptions may have contributed to the result.
However, it is possible that supply is being constrained by other factors, including deliberate delays by developers in response to rising settlement concerns. Capacity constraints and tighter credit availability are other possible explanations.
Declines were seen across both new and used dwellings (down 4 percent) and alterations &amp; additions (renovations, down 5.2 percent). Growth in dwelling investment over the year was also soft at -2.5 percent y/y.
New building approvals have come off from their highs, but have held steady at higher than expected levels in recent months.
That might suggest the housing construction boom has a little further to run (despite recent declines in dwelling investment), although our economic modelling still points to significant downside risks to the outlook. Overall, dwelling investment is expected to be flat in 2017 (revised down due to very weak Q1 outcome), before turning modestly negative (-0.4 percent and -2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively). 
Hints that housing prices are starting to peak will be welcome by the Reserve Bank who remain concerned about elevated household debt. While it is early days, this is consistent with our view that housing prices will slow from here, particularly given further tightening in credit growth as banks are forced to cut back on interest only loans. No rate hikes are likely however until mid- 2019.  
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/">here</a>.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Property market could already be close to its peak: Alan Oster

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Home prices in capital cities fell by more than one% in May, including falls in Sydney and Melbourne, but experts say it is too early to call a housing downturn.
In Sydney, home prices fell 1.3% while Melbourne’s dropped 1.7%, according to Corelogic's latest Hedonic Home Value Index.
Hobart had the steepest fall at 4.8%.
National house prices fell 1.1%, driven mainly by the declines in Sydney and Melbourne, Corelogic said.
The property analytics firm’s head of research Tim Lawless said the jury was still out on whether the housing market had peaked given previous strong rebounds in 2015 and 2016 following dips.
“The May home value results should be viewed in the context of demonstrated seasonality; values have fallen during May in four of the past five years. Reading through the seasonality indicates that value growth in the market has lost momentum, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where affordability constraints are more evident and investors have comprised a larger proportion of housing demand,” Lawless wrote in his blog on CoreLogic.
"I wouldn't be surprised if things bounce back," Lawless was quoted as saying by The Australian Financial Review.
However, SQM Research's Louis Christopher warned the fundamental driver of housing, population growth, was still very strong, The Australian Financial Review reported.
"When the ABS population numbers came out recently, they were higher than anyone had expected. That is why oversupply has not happened," he said.
"Prices could still rise in the second half, if nothing further happens."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/02/CorelogicIndex.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/02/CorelogicIndex.png" alt="">
Year on year was a different story though, with Sydney prices increasing 11.1% while Melbourne rose 11.5%, CoreLogic data showed.
Real estate agents said it was too early to call a downturn as demand is still strong despite softer auctions clearances and sales. But they also attribute the price fall to a seasonal rise in stock, after a drought of low listings earlier in the year, the AFR said.
"People have more choice, and we haven't had that for quite a while. A little bit more stock, and interest rate chatter. People are rethinking and not pushing too hard," The Agency chief executive Matt Lahood said.
"We need a quarter to score it … it's just a bit early.
"An RBA cash rate cut could again push up prices, but Lawless said there were enough counter measures to stop that for now.
"If the cash rate falls, we are already compensated by mortgage rates pushing up higher. Already we see are higher mortgage rates for investors. If there is a rate cut, it would be followed by further macroprudential changes. They [regulators] would do their best to avoid 2015."
He added that a fall in consumer confidence has also dented the market a little. 
"Consumer sentiment towards housing, as measured by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, has shown a marked downturn in May."
Other market indicators suggest a slower pace of growth such as a reduction in market activity, a moderating trend in auction clearance rates and rising advertised stock levels, Lawless said.
But even if there was a "permanent" correction, McGrath founder John McGrath said any downturn would not be "major".
"What I do know is there is no crash coming that resembles the ones that have been speculated. I've heard about this mythical crash for over 30 years and prices just keep going up over time. But I'm equally confident that this market cycle is close to its peak," he said.
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Sydney, Melbourne home prices fell in May, but experts not calling downturn yet

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<h2 class="caption">GUEST OBSERVER</h2>
Too many people are getting overwhelmed with property prices in Australia, specifically in Melbourne and Sydney.
Scott Morrison’s recent speech identifies certain tax breaks and incentives for first home buyers and downsizers. As well as now looking to implement the 'bond aggregator' model in which new dwellings could be developed that would be targeted at people working in lower paid jobs or those who otherwise can’t generate an adequate income (such as self-funded retirees). Everything is becoming so very technical and as the government tries to shut the door on one end another will always open and loopholes will always emerge.
Something that I truly believe in regards to property supply is so simple yet continually over looked.
Victoria's population growth is approximately 100,000 people per annum a little more if you look at the Australian Demographic statistics quoting 127,000 for (Sep 15-16). If we look back we can see between June 14 to June 15 the population growth was 99,400.
Now let’s compare this to planning permits and number of dwelling approvals. Where Victoria's total approved dwellings through planning was 72,700 (June 14-15) consisting of 8,175 dwelling permits. An obvious shortfall, quite a large shortfall!
Now factor in a few other outliers that the general community does not know. Average time for development to commence and complete (dependent upon size) would be 12-18 months from planning permit issue. On an average, approximately 30% of these planning permits don’t go ahead and become obsolete.
If we look at these statistics again using year 2014- 2015 as an example.
<ul>
<li>Population 99,400</li>
<li>Dwellings approved 72,700 let’s be generous and say 80% get developed - 58,160 dwellings</li>
<li>The time those dwellings will be ready best case December 2015 - taking into consideration all permits were issued June 2014</li>
<li>Now let’s add another 49,700 as average population growth from July-Dec 2015.</li>
</ul>
In a nutshell, in 18 months from June 2014 to December 2015 we have 58,160 homes ready for use and 149,100 people moving here. Yes, now there maybe 2-3 people moving into each dwelling, however we cannot stipulate nor accept that this will be the case on every single dwelling when comparing number to the additional population growth.
My point is very simple - supply and demand is the obvious answer. However, for housing prices to become ‘a little easier on the eye’ and supply to catch up to demand, it is the efficiency of local municipalities and creating platforms and/or generic regulations where developers, owners/builders etc., will be able to use and get building faster before the influx of people becomes too great and the governments find themselves in a position where they need to make radical changes to the property market that in turn could be worse for all.
 
David Tricarico is a Co-founder of <a href="https://adepto.net.au/" target="_blank">Adepto Co.</a>
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