<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
<p data-end="577" data-start="264">The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.</p>

<p data-end="577" data-start="264">The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.</p>

<p data-end="577" data-start="264"><img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" /></p>

<p><em>Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park</em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="1070" data-start="809">The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.</p>

<p data-end="1246" data-start="1072">Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.</p>

<p data-end="1483" data-start="1248">Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.</p>

<p data-end="1854" data-start="1485">Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”</p>

<p data-end="2059" data-start="1856">The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”</p>

<p data-end="2318" data-start="2061">The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.</p>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2320">Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.</p>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2320"><img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" /><em>Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment</em></p>

<p data-end="2814" data-start="2488">The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.</p>

<p data-end="3188" data-start="2816">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3625" data-start="3404">The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.</p>

<p data-end="4003" data-start="3627">The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.</p>

<p data-end="4149" data-start="4005">Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.</p>

<p data-end="4488" data-start="4151">The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.</p>

<p data-end="4609" data-start="4490">The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.</p>

<p data-end="4894" data-start="4611">“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.</p>

<p data-end="5090" data-start="4896">The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.</p>

<p data-end="5090" data-start="4896"><img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" /></p>

<p data-end="5304" data-start="5092">The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.</p>

<p data-end="5498" data-start="5306">Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.</p>

<p data-end="6154" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="5806">In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”</p>

<p>Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.</p>

<p>The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.</p>

<p>It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

Property Prices

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<p><span>The significant depreciation of the Aussie dollar has encouraged a record 7.2 million short-term visitors to Australia over the past year.</span></p>
<p><span>But why are people coming?</span></p>
<p><span>The main reason is for holidays (3.24 million), and ever more so from China and its provinces.</span></p>
<p><span>Increasingly, though, folk are also coming to Australia to visit their friends, families and relatives, with more than 2 million people falling into this category.</span></p>
<p><span>The other huge growth area is for education, with a smashing 451,000 education arrivals in the past year, a massive annual increase of well over 17%.</span></p>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/08/Arr.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>These figures suggest a boost for tourism economies such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Tasmania, for example.</div>
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<div>The latest available government data shows that the boom in foreign students is overwhelmingly a capital city dynamic.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Why are people coming Down Under? Pete Wargent

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I noted</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> recently that it pays to be wary when studies invariably reveal that the "strongest" property price growth over a carefully specified time period proves to be in a random suburb located somewhere to the west of White Cliffs which you've almost inevitably never heard of.</span>
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<div class="separator">Most likely the sample size for the data series is inappropriately miniscule, and the movements in median price are thus inclined to lurch around accordingly.</div>
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<div class="separator">There was recently some debate, for example, as to whether property prices have actually been soaring even in regional New South Wales towns where the population has been in decline.</div>
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<div>Sure, low interest rates have sparked a boom in Sydney property prices...but out in the sticks and even where the population is declining? <span>I don't believe so - that wouldn't make any sense at all! </span>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional median prices</span></strong></div>
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<div>Check out in the two charts below the median price data for Lightning Ridge and Walgett which were two of the quoted suburbs where the median prices have apparently boomed by more than +75 per cent over the past decade despite being home to reportedly declining populations.  </div>
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<div>As you can see there are so few sales in any given month - indeed, there are zero transactions in many instances - that even the smoothed 6mMA average median prices can comfortably more than double (or halve) in the matter of only a few months.<br><br>The median price data is to all intents and purposes meaningless.</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Like-for-like sales</span></strong><br><br>If you want to work out what is really happening to house prices in a suburb, you ideally need to look at resales of the same properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And even then you need to find like-for-like sales or else improvements can skew the data viciously higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the below 1,000sqm block in Lightning Ridge which according to my sales history database appears at first blush to have increased in value to by an outlandish 1,400 per cent since 2003! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Until, that is, you realise that the owner has recently developed the block with two brand new homes - a 4 bedroom house and a 2 bedroom home - with a combined rental of $550/week.<br><br>This is fairly typical of price action which skews the median price data upwards, but it is clearly manufactured rather than endogenous growth.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" alt="" width="861" height="655"></div>
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<div><span>If you look at genuinely like-for-like sales in Lightning Ridge, however, such as the below recent sale on a 1,110sqm block, you'll find that capital growth over the past quarter of a century or so has been much closer to zero per cent. </span></div>
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<div> </div>
<div><span>And it's a similar story in nearby Walgett, with the below house having achieved capital 'growth' over the past 25 years of negative $1,000.</span></div>
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<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.50.55%20AM.png" alt="" width="771" height="554"></span></div>
<div>
<div>As for booming prices in Hay, which was another suburb quoted as having boomed by more than +70 per cent despite a declining population, there also appears to be very little exciting to see here when you look at like-for-like resales over time, with total capital growth since 2006 on this example property of only $1,000.</div>
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<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.52.21%20AM.png" alt="" width="773" height="516"></div>
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<div class="separator">Yet anothern NSW suburb which is quoted as having soared in value by more than +70 per cent despite its declining population was Brewarinna. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Over the past year the suburb has recorded median price growth of precisely +25.00 per cent - with the median price having increased to exactly $100,000 - apparently impressive numbers, even if they do appear to be suspiciously round in nature.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It's only when you realise that the entire data series is based on the grand total of eleven home sales that you realise how meaningless the median price data really can be.  </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Now don't get me wrong, I am very much on board with the argument that easy credit flows can be and is one of the primary drivers of dwelling prices.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very fact that today folk can borrow money at a 4 per cent cost of capital instead of double digit mortgage rates which is perhaps <em><strong>the</strong> </em>most significant factor in rising dwelling prices. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">What I am saying, however, is that median dwelling prices in regional towns should be treated with a great deal of caution, if not dispensed with altogether.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">As a penultimate point, I would also question whether a Sydney suburb where the population has ticked down by -0.2 per cent really has a "declining" population, when this is more likely to be simply a shift in the composition of households.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.53.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/population-growth-and-property-price" target="_blank">l</a>ack of population growth in some landlocked suburbs - reflective of the fact that they are fully built out - which makes them more appealing for investment purposes. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">On a related note, you'd have a tough time convincing the residents of, say, Orange, Dubbo, Lismore or Parkes of their supposedly declining populations, whatever the suburb level or LGA stats may say...but that's a debate for another day! </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Rubbery suburb median prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>A wise investor once said: “People’s expectation of the future is set by their experiences in the immediate past.” No truer is this phrase than the phenomena of the Sydney market over the past 2-3 years. It’s also unfortunately why I think there is pain ahead for those still contemplating a residential property investment in Sydney or Melbourne.  </p>
<p>Think about it; with between 62% (all NSW mortgages, July 2015 CoreLogic) and 68% (Nationwide: AFG) of mortgages being investment loans, an investor should realise that with only 32% of participants potentially buying property for its underlying utility value (ie: to live in!), investors will happily shun a location if it presents no potential for meaningful growth in the near future.  Investors certainly don’t need to live there! <br><br> Now, I am certain of the direction of these changes, but of course the timing is open for debate. </p>
<p>At Oasis Property we maintain our bias towards a correction of between 7-15% in the Sydney market. In Melbourne...less so (5-8%). My expectation is that this play out over the next 2-3 years. In almost every extended discussion I have with people about this, I find disagreement. But the startling thing about this is the disagreement is not because they necessarily disagree with our experience OR the fact that Sydney and Melbourne prices have outperformed on every metric. No. They are disagreeing <em>only</em> because of sentiment and psychology. No sound reasoning, just emotion built on expectation, based on recent performance.  <br><br> As I have cited many times publicly...and almost ad nauseum for 12 months now, the fundamental reason for owning property in Sydney and Melbourne has been exhausted. That is, the baseline amenity (a house) being built for a consumer (owner or tenant) that is ready to live in it...is too expensive. Expensive to the point that a homeowner finds it more logical to rent (at 2-3% yields...this is entirely rational) OR the bank will not extend them the finance to lend. (rational or not...the buyer doesn’t have a choice in this!) </p>
<p>All this brings me to a tried and trusted logic that has served me well as an investor. From the mouth of legendary investor Rick Rule. “The cure for low prices...is low prices.” And similarly the inverse of this...the cure for high prices...IS high prices.” </p>
<p>Before you think that notion sounds absurd… hear me out. Rick is a billionaire. You are probably not. Using this narrative below to example this notion, allow me to expand: </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">If a developer cannot buy land, build a property and make a profit – they will not build that property. There MUST be an incentive to do it. Or building will stop. It is called a </span><em style="line-height: 1.3em;">market clearing price. </em></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">For example. If land can be purchased in Lane Cove for $1m, and a new dwelling costs $600k to build (=$1.6m), yet the market price is only be $1.4m, the dwelling will simply not get built. Why would they? Would you?</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Exacerbated over an extended period of time, if this incentive is not achieved...the will be no properties built over an extended period of time. Demand will build up (like it has). It’s a predictable outcome. </span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Eventually, the market will realise that there is a housing shortfall. </span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Now, with that situation in place as ‘tinder’ for the market, it only took the dovetailing of the low interest rate environment to light a fire under the property. The rest is modern history. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Hence the saying: “the cure for low prices...is low prices.” It is that simple.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Taking that example of that Lane Cove property I referred to.  We see that at $1.4m the maths doesn’t work. In fact, even at $1.6m it doesn’t; what with stamp duties, borrowing and holding costs. In reality, most developers I know wouldn’t even start the project if it returned a market price of $1.9m. (~12% after costs) Developers will roughly work off a model of 30% and often include contingency in this plan to scale downward or upwards from here. They’d want to see $2.2m to get them started on this project. </span></p>
<p>And now we’ve got ourselves a <em>market clearing price! </em>And that’s exactly where Sydney and Melbourne have been over the past 3 years.  Now we’re well past it.    </p>
<p>The problem is of course, that this effect works the same way at the other end of the market...the top! Many more properties are being constructed and have been constructed now that this incentive has been created. This has had the effect of inflating the cost of property well and beyond the affordability of the everyday property owner, which is the benchmark we all must base our assumptions on. </p>
<p>Do <em>not </em>base it off the overseas/Chinese investor. They will (eventually) only pay what is necessary to beat the next highest bidder. Do <em>not</em> base it on the wealthy investor, they will be subject to, and more likely price in higher interest rates. Do <em>not</em> base it on the self managed super fund purchaser. NO. Base it on the home owner. The person that needs a home and can either afford to pay for it or not. (Hint: do some research...[lack of] affordability is now through the roof!)</p>
<p>What we are finally left with is too much stock on the market and elevated prices for those buyers that are left. I think we are almost there. You do <em>not</em> want to be holding that parcel when that music stops! </p>
<p>So eventually, the “cure for high prices” is the high prices themselves that make them unaffordable for those that want and need to live in them. </p>
<p>To combat the claim that people believe that Sydney prices will still keep surging, I cite a most recent, but now almost daily occurrence whereby people actually argue with me that they do not believe that Sydney prices will <span><em>ever</em></span> go backwards. After convulsing in a fit of laughter, I then reply, with a cheeky grin on my face;</p>
<p>“If that occurred (non-stop growth), it would be the only time in history, in any region, in any mature market - that this has occurred. Ever. Let me repeat...EVER!”</p>
<p>On that note, I’ll leave you with one last reminder. “the cure of high prices...IS high prices!” </p>
<p><br><em>Gavin McPherson is chief executive officer of Oasis Property Buyers Agency and author of "Value Investing in Property: What would Warren Buffet do if he was investing in property in Australia?" He can be contacted <a href="https://www.oasisproperty.com.au/oasis-buyers/oasis-property-buyers.php" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Is Sydney now the rotten apple for investors? Oasis' Gavin McPherson

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<p><span>Masterchef George Calombaris and his Made Establishment business partner George Sykiotis have bought again in Sydney's Surry Hills.</span></p>
<p><span>It is the building adjacent to the building secured earlier this year on the corner of <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-retail-nsw-surry+hills-501323299" target="_blank"><span>Albion and Mary street</span></a> costing $1.85 million.</span></p>
<p><span>"We did a site visit a few weeks ago and noticed next door was for sale so we purchased it," <em>Fairfax Media</em> was told.</span></p>
<p><span>It had an asking price close to $2 million through Steffan Ippolito from Oxford Agency having last sold in 2010 at $950,000. </span></p>
<p><span>Made Establishment is planning a combination of two popular brands, Jimmy Grants and Gazi at the Surry Hills, Sydney location.</span></p>
<p><span>Earlier this month the c</span><span>elebrity chef George Calombaris' Gazi and The Press Club restaurants in Melbourne's CBD were sold to listed Singaporean real estate investment trust <a href="/expert-insights/investing/george-calombaris-gazi-the-press-club-sold-for-8-61-million"><span>REIT Keppel for $8.61 million</span></a>.</span></p>
<p><span>The restaurants, 2 Exhibition Street and 52 &amp; 72 Flinders Street Melbourne were sold through an expressions of interest campaign in conjunction with CBRE’s Josh Rutman, Mark Wizel and Paul Tzamalis in conjunction with Fitzroys Chris Kombi and Paul Burns on behalf of vendor Cerberos Pty Ltd. </span></p>
<p><span>Gazi and The Press Club attracts more than 170,000 visitors each year. </span></p>
<p><span>Keppel REIT owns a 50% stake in the 2-8 Exhibition Street office development and two retail units and all five retail units at 2-8 Exhibition Street.</span></p>
<p><span>The property was sold with a long-term lease.</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-16%20at%2011.50.09%20AM.png" alt="" width="509" height="311"></span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

George Calombaris buys again in Surry Hills

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<p>Every time the Australian economy delivers a lacklustre growth data just like clockwork we start hearing that we can expect another correction in real estate prices as we are now fast tracking an inevitable recession – all a distinct possibility.</p>
<p>How quickly some forget that Australia has now successfully completed a record 24 years of consecutive economic growth. As is the case in Australia where real wages are down this is a global problem where I foresee that the household sector will struggle with the declining weak wage results. This is further evident with the data release this week identifying GDP growth for 2014/15 came in at 2.4% and nominal GDP growth at 1.8% for the 2014/15 financial year, which is the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961/62.</p>
<p>As a result of the wages decline what is even more alarming is when one examines stock levels we are witnessing the lowest ever levels despite a record low cash rate. For example, Mosman has 5,890 houses with just 63 on the market today which represents 1.069% of properties on the market and which is also quite common for the vast majority of Sydney suburbs.</p>
<p>Too many are sugar – coating the Sydney property market by focusing on the Sydney median house price, which keeps increasing, and not looking at the grass – roots property market by analysing individual niche market performances which paints an entirely different proposition. When you have individual property markets posting record low stock levels it’s hardly likely we will see significant price growth which is exactly what we are seeing today.</p>
<p>The reality being in Mosman is that presently we have 1.069% of vendors on the market with the remaining 98.931% of property owners not wanting to sell despite a record low cash rate that will almost certainly go lower in 2016. Much of the problem relates solely to job security where individual households are refusing to take on more debt which then has the markets flatlining.</p>
<p>Going on past market corrections which were brought about by unprecedented high turnover of properties by households which has not been the case in the majority of instances. We have seen unusual high turnover of properties by investors to the extent that we are now seeing parity being reached between tenants and investors in terms of rent. That’s good news for those renting given it appears that rental growth has peaked in Sydney where in some cases we are now seeing an oversupply of properties for rent.</p>
<p>This is a positive for the economy given the general rule of thumb is one – third rent, the next third own with a mortgage and the final third own with no mortgage. So it appears now that the Sydney investor market has peaked and we can now expect to see some tapering of prices as investors chase new market opportunities. Brisbane is the stand – out so we expect to see investors jumping all over that market from here on. In the perfect property world this is exactly how investor machinations should operate with Sydney and Melbourne peaking and entering re – calibration mode.</p>
<p>Another interesting thing to look out for is the Sydney vacancy rate which we expect to see grow significantly given the enormous investor movements across Sydney. We can also expect to see some investors flipping investment properties by taking their profits and then re – investing in the new growth markets where depending on when they bought into the market there have been very strong capital appreciation generated.</p>
<p>When the Australian economy produces a poor report card this then forces our elected politicians to concentrate on the much needed reforms that must be implemented as we are now twelve months out from the next Federal Election.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 80</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 65</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 66</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 49</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 4</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 19</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 2</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 35</p>
<p>For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.</p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Why property markets just got a lot more interesting: Robert Simeon

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<p><span>The property markets in Sydney and Melbourne have gone too far in being overvalued, AMP Capital Investors' chief economist Shane Oliver said at the Asia-Pacific Banking &amp; Finance's breakfast in Sydney this week.</span></p>
<p><span>The markets were overvalued despite higher property prices being driven by "fundamentals."</span></p>
<p><span>"Interest rates are at record lows and [are] lower than the 1950s - before Marcia Brady was born. The market has gone too far, is overvalued and there is a high degree of euphoric buying," he said.</span></p>
<p><span>Sydney property prices have risen close to 20% in the past 12 months and Melbourne, 12%. </span></p>
<p><span>Dr Oliver said the bubble characteristic of  'fear of missing out' had set in and buyers, particularly in Sydney, had become irrational," he said.</span></p>
<p><span>Another bubble characteristic of flipping – speculative quick buying and re-selling of properties - wasn't as evident he said, as "it's quite hard to flip in Australia given high selling costs."</span></p>
<p><span>While the Australian "property bubble" will not burst, Dr Oliver said the frenzy must slow.</span></p>
<p><span>Dr Oliver dismissed the idea that foreign buyers were responsible for driving property prices up.</span></p>
<p><span>"They're just the sideshow, just as self-managed super funds and negative gearing are. They are contributors but the greater problem is the lack of supply of housing."</span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Shane Oliver sees bubble FOMO - fear of missing out - signs in irrational overpaying 

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<p><span>Property pundits are most aggressive on pricing in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, with those in Western Australia expecting property prices to decline.</span></p>
<p><span>According to the Westpac Red Book July 2015, <span>Australians believe price increases over the next year, as noted in the </span><span>Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations Index, which </span><span>rose 8.2% in Jul to 145.9.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>A variation in June, where the index fell slightly to 134.9, is believed to be a seasonal decline.</span></span></span></p>
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<p><span><span><img src="/images/2015/07/30/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-30%20at%206.25.10%20PM.png" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p>A weak buyer sentiment and strong price outlook was reported in NSW and Victoria and a strong sentiment and strong price outlook felt in Qld and SA. (Qld, SA)</p>
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Bullish property market in NSW, Vic and QLD

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<p><span>Business commentator David Koch has called time of the "incredible run in this country over the last decade."</span></p>
<p><span>And he says that doesn't mean that property is a bubble that's about to pop.</span></p>
<p><span>"The days of breakneck growth in capital city property prices are coming to an end… as we've seen in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide residential property prices can fall.</span></p>
<p><span>"The booms in Sydney and Melbourne are now running out of steam," he wrote in his Daily Telegraph column.</span></p>
<p><span>"While we don't think there is a nationwide property bubble, Sydney and Melbourne are definitely looking overheated," he wrote.</span></p>
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