Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Price Growth

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House value growth in Sydney and Melbourne are showing no signs of slowing down, CoreLogic's latest monthly Home Value Index shows.
Sydney houses (+1.5%) just edged Melbourne again (+1.4). January was the sixth consecutive month where the two biggest property markets in the country saw house values grow by over one percent.
It was July 2019 when houses increased 0.2% in Sydney and 0.1% in Melbourne following the end of the 18 month downturn. 
Melbourne's overall dwelling value however was stronger than Sydney over January, down to their better unit value growth.
The Victorian capital saw 0.7 per cent unit growth, compared to Sydney's fairly modest 0.3 per cent.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/2/3/CoreLogic%20January%20results.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/2/3/CoreLogic%20January%20results.jpg" alt=""> 
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<div class="column">
Over December Sydney houses were up two per cent, while units posted one per cent gains over. Melbourne's houses saw 1.7 per cent gains, units 0.9 per cent.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the positive year-end results mask what has been a year of two distinct halves.
"We saw capital city dwelling values fall by 3.8% over the first six months of 2019 and then rebound by 7.0% over the second half of the year.
“The housing value rebound was spurred on by lower mortgage rates, a relaxation in borrower serviceability assessments, improved housing affordability and renewed certainty around property taxation policies post the federal election. 
"Lower advertised stock levels persisted providing additional upwards pressure on prices amidst rising buyer activity.” 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Over December Sydney houses were up two per cent, while units posted one per cent gains over. Melbourne's houses saw 1.7 per cent gains, units 0.9 per cent.
January was a strong month across the board, with all capitals and territories seeing dwelling value gains, even the often problematic markets in Perth and Darwin.
Perth's 0.1 per cent gains was fairly evenly spread across houses and units, however Darwin was heavily reliant on their housing market, up 0.6 per cent, as the unit market declined -1.1 per cent over the month.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/2/3/CoreLogic%20January%20Dwellings.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/2/3/CoreLogic%20January%20Dwellings.jpg" alt=""> 
It was the same case in Brisbane, where houses were up 0.7 per cent but units were down 0.6 per cent.
Hobart was the third strongest capital with a 0.9 per cent gain, evenly split across houses and units. The unit market drove Adelaide's total 0.2 per cent dwelling gains.
Sydney's house value is now 9.3 per cent up over the last 12 months, compared to Melbourne's eight per cent.
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“A nominal recovery in housing values implies home owners are becoming wealthier, which may also help to support household spending", Lawless aded.
"However, the flipside is that housing affordability is set to deteriorate even further as dwelling values outpace growth in household incomes, signaling a set-back for those saving for a deposit.” 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
 
 
 
 
 
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney and Melbourne house value growth surge continues, but units slow: CoreLogic

<html><body>
Sydney is predicted to lead the Asia-Pacific region with more than six per cent capital value growth in 2020, according to Savills Global prime residential forecasts 2020.
Lisbon and Moscow are the only other capitals across the globe to be forecast to see over six per cent gains.
Sydney's growth predicted was attributed to lower interest rates, increasing immigration and continued increase in demand.
Savills did advise however the market remains sensitive to global uncertainty and price rises could be reactive to any fluctuations in the market.
They said the ongoing bush fires may be a near-term mitigating factor for the market as they start to impact on national GDP growth, however it isn't expected to weaken capital city price growth for middle- to upper-priced detached housing or market sentiment. They suggest it will continue to impede growth in rural areas
Paul Craig, chief executive of Savills Australia and New Zealand, said the Australian residential market is reverting upwards fuelled by lower mortgage rates and unfulfilled demand.
“At 31 Aug 2019 CoreLogic’s National price change was -5.2%yoy, at 30 Nov 2019 the National price change had improved to +0.1%yoy. Sydney (was -6.9%yoy) improved to +1.6% and Melbourne (was -6.2%yoy) improved to +2.2%yo", Craig said. 
Prime residential forecasts 2020 and prime capital value price growth 2019
<table class="t1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td class="td1" valign="top">
City
</td>
<td class="td2" valign="top">
2020 growth forecast
</td>
<td class="td3" valign="top">
Capital value growth 2019 
</td>
<td class="td4" valign="top">
£/psf
</td>
<td class="td4" valign="top">
$/psf
</td>
<td class="td4" valign="top">
€/psm 
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td5" valign="top">
Lisbon*
</td>
<td class="td6" valign="top">
6% to 7.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£700
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$920
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 8,900
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td9" valign="top">
Sydney
</td>
<td class="td10" valign="top">
6% to 7.9%
</td>
<td class="td11" valign="top">
1.7%
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
£1,270
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
$1,670
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
€ 16,100
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td5" valign="top">
Moscow
</td>
<td class="td6" valign="top">
6% to 7.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
2.3%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£980
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,280
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 12,400
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td13" valign="top">
Paris
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="top">
4% to 5.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
6.4%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,210
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,590
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 15,400
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td13" valign="top">
Amsterdam*
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="top">
4% to 5.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£710
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$930
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 8,900
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td13" valign="top">
Guangzhou
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="top">
4% to 5.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
0.5%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£890
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,170
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 11,300
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td13" valign="top">
Hangzhou
</td>
<td class="td14" valign="top">
4% to 5.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
4.8%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£750
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$980
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 9,500
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td15" valign="top">
Berlin
</td>
<td class="td16" valign="top">
2% to 3.9%
</td>
<td class="td11" valign="top">
8.8%
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
£760
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
$990
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
€ 9,600
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
Singapore
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
2% to 3.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-0.2%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,200
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,580
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 15,300
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
London
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
2% to 3.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-1.5%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,460
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,920
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 18,500
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
Cape Town
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
2% to 3.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-6.3%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£230
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$310
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 3,000
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
Shanghai
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
2% to 3.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
3.3%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,340
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,760
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 17,000
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td19" valign="top">
Tokyo
</td>
<td class="td20" valign="top">
0% to 1.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
1.9%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,650
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$2,160
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 21,000
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td21" valign="top">
Los Angeles
</td>
<td class="td22" valign="top">
0% to 1.9%
</td>
<td class="td11" valign="top">
-2.8%
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
£1,050
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
$1,370
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
€ 13,200
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td19" valign="top">
Geneva*
</td>
<td class="td20" valign="top">
0% to 1.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,470
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,930
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 18,700
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td19" valign="top">
Beijing
</td>
<td class="td20" valign="top">
0% to 1.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
0.9%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,090
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,440
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 13,900
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td19" valign="top">
Shenzhen
</td>
<td class="td20" valign="top">
0% to 1.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
1.9%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,130
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,480
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 14,300
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td19" valign="top">
San Francisco
</td>
<td class="td20" valign="top">
0% to 1.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-3.2%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,180
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,550
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 15,100
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td23" valign="top">
Madrid
</td>
<td class="td24" valign="top">
0%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
0.6%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£550
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$720
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 7,000
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td25" valign="top">
Barcelona
</td>
<td class="td26" valign="top">
0%
</td>
<td class="td11" valign="top">
0.7%
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
£490
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
$650
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
€ 6,200
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td23" valign="top">
Bangkok
</td>
<td class="td24" valign="top">
0%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-1.0%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£670
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$880
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 8,600
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
Miami
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
-1.9% to 0%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-5.4%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£730
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$960
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 9,300
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
Mumbai*
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
-1.9% to 0%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£980
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$1,290
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 12,500
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
Kuala Lumpur
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
-1.9% to 0%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-1.0%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£210
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$280
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 2,700
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td17" valign="top">
New York
</td>
<td class="td18" valign="top">
-1.9% to 0%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-3.0%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£1,910
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$2,510
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 24,300
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td27" valign="top">
Dubai
</td>
<td class="td28" valign="top">
-2% to -3.9%
</td>
<td class="td11" valign="top">
-5.8%
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
£440
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
$580
</td>
<td class="td12" valign="middle">
€ 5,600
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="td29" valign="top">
Hong Kong
</td>
<td class="td30" valign="top">
-6% to -7.9%
</td>
<td class="td7" valign="top">
-1.5%
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
£3,510
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
$4,610
</td>
<td class="td8" valign="middle">
€ 44,700
 
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
“The RBA and APRA will become concerned as house prices approach 2017 highs (expected in May 2020) and we could see the reapplication of macro-prudential measures to curb house prices and address affordability issues.”
 Savills Australia's director of residential Chris Orr said luxury property in Sydney’s key markets have definitely bounced back.
“Sydney overall has recovered anywhere from 5-7% in blue-chip areas however there are still some local markets where there is an oversupply of apartments which has negatively impacted prices", Orr said.
“Australia as a whole, is considered a growth market at the moment given our recent financial regulations having changed for the better and new re-elected Government which is focussed on maintaining a secure economy."
 
  
 
 
 
</body></html>

Sydney to lead Asia-Pacific region with six per cent real estate value growth in 2020: Savills

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 1.7% in November, the biggest increase since October 2003.
And capital city home prices rose by 2.0% – also the biggest lift in 16 years.
Regional home prices rose by 0.5% in the month. Sydney home prices lifted by 2.7% in November – the biggest monthly increase since October 1988.
Of the 88 SA4 regions across Australia, home prices were up on a year ago in 39 regions. Home prices in West and North-West Tasmania rose by 5.9% over the year.
The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index fell from 51.6 points to a 3-year low of 48.1 points in November.
And the ‘final’ CBA/IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell from 50.0 points to a 31⁄2-year low of 49.9 points. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in activity.
What does it all mean? 
Aussie home prices are booming. National property prices lifted by the most in 16 years in November. And in Australia’s most populous city – Sydney – home prices surged by 2.7%, posting the biggest monthly gain in 31 years.
Record-low mortgage rates and an easing in lending standards have seen a surge in demand.
In fact, preliminary ‘unadjusted’ auction clearance rates last weekend came in at 84.7% in Sydney and 78.3% in Melbourne, according to CoreLogic results.
And on the supply side, the limited pool of housing stock for sale is also supporting a surge in home price growth.
For combined capital cities, the number of new homes listed for sale is down by 15.3% over the year to November with Sydney listings down 23.1%, according to CoreLogic. Newly advertised listed stock is at the lowest level since 2007.
The rapid recovery in the property market since the Federal Election has seen national home prices post their first annual gain (up 0.1%) since April 2018. Still, in many regions, home prices are lower than a year ago.
In fact there were annual gains in home prices in only 39 of the 88 regions in November. But home prices in Tasmania’s West, North West and South East are up 5.3-5.9% over the year to November. And in Melbourne’s posh Inner East, annual gains are a nation-leading +8.0%. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/common%20sec%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/common%20sec%201.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/commonsec%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/commonsec%202.jpg" alt="">
What do the figures show? 
Home prices
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 2.0% in November, the biggest increase since October 2003. Home prices are 0.1% higher over the year. 
In capital cities, prices rose by 2.0% – the biggest lift in 16 years – to be up 0.4% over the year to November. House prices rose by 2.1% and apartment prices lifted by 1.6%. House prices were up 0.1% on a year ago and prices of apartments increased by 1.4%. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/commonsec%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/commonsec%203.jpg" alt="">
In regional areas, home prices rose by 0.5% with houses and apartment prices also both up by 0.5%. Regional home prices are down 1.2% on the year to November. 
The average Australian capital city house price (median price) was $652,446 and the average unit price was $563,439 in November.
Dwelling prices rose in seven of the eight capital cities in November. Home prices rose by the most in Sydney (up by 2.7%), followed by Hobart (up by 2.3%), Melbourne (up by 2.2%), Canberra (up by 1.6%), Brisbane (up 0.8%), Adelaide (up by 0.5%) and Perth (up by 0.4%). But prices fell in Darwin (down by 1.2%). 
Home prices were higher than a year ago in four of the eight capital cities in November. Prices rose the most in Hobart (up by 4.2%), followed by Canberra (up by 3.0%), Melbourne (up by 2.2%) and Sydney (up by 1.6%).
But prices were down in Darwin (down by 10.9%), Perth (down by 7.7%), Brisbane (down by 0.5%) and Adelaide (down by 0.5%).
Total returns on national dwellings rose by 4.1% in the year to November - the most in 19 months - with houses up by 3.6% on a year earlier and units up by 5.4%.
In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index lifted by 25.9% over the year to November. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/commonsec%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/commonsec%204.jpg" alt="">
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes - November
The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index fell from 51.6 to a three-year low of 48.1 points in November. And the CBA/IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell from 50.0 points to 3½-year lows of 49.9 points in November. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. 
According to AiGroup: “Drought remains a top concern for many manufacturers, particularly those located in rural areas or those selling metal products and machinery &amp; equipment to the agricultural sector. The small but diverse Textiles, Clothing and Footwear (TCF), paper and printing’ sector recorded its lowest reading since early 2013, with respondents noting weak market demand and rising raw material costs."
According to CBA/IHS Markit: “Australian manufacturing conditions were broadly stagnant in November, as a survey-record fall in new orders and a decline in output weighed on the headline PMI. A weakening sales trend contributed to a further fall in backlogs which, in turn, dampened hiring. Jobs growth was marginal. Meanwhile, firms once again failed to add to inventories of both inputs and final goods while business confidence fell to the lowest since June 2016.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/commonsec%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/commonsec%205.jpg" alt="">
What is the importance of the economic data? 
The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
The AiGroup and CBA Purchasing Manager indexes (PMIs) for services and manufacturing are released each month. The Australian PMIs are the local equivalents of similar indexes released for other countries.
The PMIs are amongst timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMIs are useful not just in showing how the sectors are performing but in providing some sense about where they are heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/commonsec%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/commonsec%206.jpg" alt="">
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Aussie property market is booming due to strong demand, reduced supply and record low interest rates.
And with listings remaining at very low levels, residential home building falling and population growth remaining solid, could a potential housing shortage boost home price growth even further in 2020? Yes, according Commonwealth Bank Group economists whom are forecasting a 6.1% lift in capital city home prices over the year, led higher by Sydney (up 7.0%) and Melbourne (up 8.0%).
Gains of 2.5-4.0% are expected elsewhere except Darwin, with prices tipped to be flat. If this materialises, consumers may feel a tad more optimistic about their wealth and be encouraged to increase their discretionary spending. But tepid wage growth and elevated mortgage debt will likely restrain consumers.  
Global manufacturing conditions have improved. In fact, the November purchasing manager index readings for leading exporters’ Germany, Japan and China have bottomed after a period of contraction.
Trade tensions between the US and China have eased in recent months with the official Chinese factory gauge expanding in November for the first time since April on improving external demand.
But the outlook for global growth is highly dependent on a ‘phase one’ trade deal negotiations with the next tranche of US tariffs – 15% duty on US$156 billion worth of Chinese products – due on December 15. 
But things aren’t as promising for Aussie manufacturers. Both the AiGroup and CBA/IHS Markit manufacturing gauges hit three-year lows with activity contracting in November.
Like the Reserve Bank and most market economists, the AiGroup has implored the Federal Government to deploy additional fiscal stimulus measures to ‘jump-start’ the economy.
The AiGroup said: The further fall in new orders is far from encouraging...stimulus from interest rate and income tax cuts has not so far flowed through to consumer and business spending. The Government will need to look very closely at additional stimulus options over coming months."
Commonwealth Bank Group economists expect another rate cut in February 2020. But with limited conventional monetary policy ammunition at its disposal, we would prefer to see additional fiscal initiatives – such as infrastructure spending and tax cuts - be announced by the Federal Government to prop up economic activity.
That said, credit ratings agency Standard &amp; Poor’s last week warned that Australia’s AAA sovereign credit rating could be at risk should the government announce large spending measures.  
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Biggest increase in Aussie home prices in 16 years: Ryan Felsman 

<html><body>
Sydney house prices rebounded in the September quarter, with the median jumping almost five percent, according to Domain.
Domain's September House Price Report found the median house price rose 4.8 per cent to $1,079,491. 
The price correction was led by Sydney's North West, whose median house price rose 9.7 per cent, the best performer across the city.
Sydney's South (+7.1 per cent) and Inner West (6.9 per cent) were the only other regions over five per cent.
The Inner West's market rebound has seen it become on just three regions who have seen year on year house price gains (+4 per cent).
There was slow growth in the city's east which was hit hardest during the downturn. Their 1.4 per cent quarterly gains doesn't come close to offsetting the nine per cent declines year on year.
<div class="embed_table">
<table style="height: 511px; width: 540px;">
<tfoot><tr>
<td colspan="4">Source: Domain House Price Report, September Qr 2019.</td>
</tr></tfoot>
<thead><tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="4" width="341">Median house prices</td>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Region</td>
<td>Median</td>
<td>QoQ Change</td>
<td>YoY Change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Blue Mountains</td>
<td style="width: 100px;">$650,000</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Canterbury Bankstown</td>
<td>$860,000</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Central Coast</td>
<td>$616,500</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>City and East</td>
<td>$2,180,000</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-9.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Inner West</td>
<td>$1,550,000</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lower North Shore</td>
<td>$2,330,000</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>North West</td>
<td>$1,250,000</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Northern Beaches</td>
<td>$1,696,000</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>South</td>
<td>$1,125,000</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>South West</td>
<td>$695,000</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Upper North Shore</td>
<td>$1,620,000</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>West</td>
<td>$700,000</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="table_source">Source: <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-property-market-records-fastest-rebound-in-decades-896383/" target="_blank">Domain</a>
</div>
<div class="table_source">"Buyers have missed out on the bottom of the market, with prices reaching the bottom in the last quarter," Domain advised.</div>
<div class="table_source"> </div>
<div class="table_source">They suggested however buyers can still take advantage of improved affordability. 
</div>
<div class="table_source"> </div>
<div class="table_source">"House prices are 9.9 per cent below the mid-2017 peak, and units prices 10.6 per cent below," Domain stated.</div>
<div class="table_source">
The rapid housing recovery is four times greater than the next strongest quarterly rebound of 1.2 per cent following the 1994 market dip.
Domain senior research analyst Nicola Powell said the quicker-than-expected upswing could be attributed to the slight relaxation of lending standards, interest rate cuts, a post-election boost in buyer confidence and improved affordability.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/24/House%20Price%20Downturns%20and%20Recovery%20Domain.jpg" alt="">
“We have seen a strong rise over the quarter,” Dr Powell said. “There is momentum gaining, so I do think next quarter we’re likely to see [a return to annual price gains].”
Houses have regained almost one-third of the price falls that occurred during the recent downturn, and units have regained roughly one-fifth of the price lost over the recent slump.
Despite this rebound, both house and unit prices remain lower than a year ago.
<h1>Unit Prices </h1>
The Northern Beaches led the apartment recovery, with unit prices across the city growing 2.6 per cent, the equivalent of $17,314, to a $694,840 median.
The apartment median price in the Northern Beaches jumped over 13 per cent over the September quarter to post 3.8 per cent year on year gains.
The Northern Beaches was the only region to post year on year gains.
<table style="height: 510px; width: 540px;">
<tfoot><tr>
<td colspan="4">Source: Domain House Price Report, September Qr 2019.</td>
</tr></tfoot>
<thead><tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" colspan="4" width="341">Median house units</td>
</tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Region</td>
<td>Sep-19</td>
<td>QoQ</td>
<td>YoY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Canterbury Bankstown</td>
<td>$510,000</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-7.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Central Coast</td>
<td>$426,500</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-13.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>City and East</td>
<td>$940,000</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Inner West</td>
<td>$762,000</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lower North Shore</td>
<td>$920,000</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>North West</td>
<td>$677,250</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Northern Beaches</td>
<td>$885,000</td>
<td>13.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>South</td>
<td>$660,000</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>South West</td>
<td>$455,000</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Upper North Shore</td>
<td>$745,500</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>West</td>
<td>$544,000</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<div class="embed_table">
<div class="table_source">Source: <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-property-market-records-fastest-rebound-in-decades-896383/" target="_blank">Domain</a>
</div>
<div class="table_source"> </div>
<div class="table_source">There were quarterly gains in the Lower North Shore (+5.4 per cent), the Inner West (3.3 per cent) and the City and East (2.7 per cent).</div>
<div class="table_source">
<div class="embed_table">
<div class="table_source">
The Central Coast unit market continued to decline, with a further 3.1 per cent decline taking its year on year median down 13.4 per cent. 
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="table_source"> </div>
</div>
</body></html>

wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Sydney records highest quarterly growth for two years: Domain

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER 
The boost from the election result which removed the threats to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, RBA rate cuts, and positive headlines around the relaxation of the 7% mortgage rate serviceability test and tax cuts have helped provide a bounce in home buyer demand at a time of low listings.
This is clearly evident in a continuing rebound in auction clearance rates where August saw the best monthly average clearance rates in Sydney since March 2017 and in Melbourne it was the best month since August 2017.
While this has come on very low volumes, its usually the case that improved clearance rates lead a pick-up in volumes and this may already be starting to be seen with listings picking up in recent weeks and is likely to become more evident through the Spring selling season.
As can be seen, the rebound in auction clearance rates points to a rebound in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne and this is already starting to be seen. Based on past relationships the current level of clearances points to annual house price growth rising to around 10 to 15% over the next 9 to 12 months.
Our base case remains that house price gains will be far more constrained than this. Compared to past recovery cycles household debt to income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are much tighter such that a return to rapid growth in interest only and investor loans is most unlikely, the supply of units has surged with more to come and this has already pushed up Sydney’s rental vacancy rate well above normal levels and unemployment is likely to drift up as overall economic growth remains weak.
So notwithstanding the bounce in Sydney and Melbourne prices seen in August we don’t see a return to boom time conditions and expect constrained gains through 2020 – eg around 5% or so (which we have revised up slightly).
However, the rapid rebound in Sydney and Melbourne property prices to annualised gains around 15% in August has raised the risk that we may see much stronger gains. There are three key things to watch going forward:
First and most immediately the Spring selling season is worth watching - if auction clearances remain elevated as listing pick up then it will be a positive sign that the pick-up in the property market has legs. Second, housing finance commitments - so far its remained weak despite the pick-up in clearances.
This may be because the many of the buyers who have come back into the market so far already had finance lined up and were waiting to buy. And in any case it has come on low volumes. For 10-15% price gains in Sydney and Melbourne housing finance will have to pick up significantly.
Finally, unemployment will be important beyond the next few months. If it picks up significantly in response to slow economic growth then it will be a big constraint on house prices and could result in forced property sales and another leg down in property prices.
This is not our base case but is the key risk in terms of the property outlook.
Much higher unemployment is something the RBA is keen to avoid – in fact it wants unemployment to fall to 4.5% or below – so our view remains for further cash rate reductions in November and February next year taking the cash rate to 0.5%.
An obvious issue though is whether the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets will present a problem for the RBA in terms of cutting interest rates further. This will no doubt cause some consternation at the Bank. But as we saw over the 2011-17 period the RBA will do what it believes is right for the “average” of Australia as opposed to one sector or a couple of cities.
However, it may have to return to tighter regulatory controls again if it needs to cool the Sydney and Melbourne property markets once more for financial stability reasons.
In other words, we don’t see the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets as a barrier to further monetary easing, but if it continues to gather pace then expect a tightening of the screws again from bank regulators.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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Australian capital city home prices rebounded 1% in August but don't expect a boom: Shane Oliver 

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Five Australian cities ranked in the top 32 cities around the world for luxury residential price growth, according to the latest research findings from Knight Frank.
The Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index – Q2 2019, which tracks the movement in prime residential prices (the top 5% of the housing market in most cities, by value) across 46 cities worldwide, revealed Sydney was ranked 18th for luxury price growth.
Following Sydney is Brisbane ranking 20th, Melbourne 21st, the Gold Coast 27th and Perth 32nd.
Sydney has moved back into the top spot for Australia, while Melbourne has moved up the rankings one spot from the previous quarter.
The Gold Coast has been included in the Prime Global Cities Index for the first time in Q2 2019.
Knight Frank says this reflects stability and depth in the city’s established luxury home market, with a solid pipeline of new projects catered towards affluent local and interstate downsizers.
The Prime Global Cities Index – Q2 2019 found three Australian cities - Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane - all recorded growth in luxury residential prices higher than the overall average annual prime price growth of 1.4% across the 46 global cities in the 12 months leading up to the end of June this year.
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Five Australian cities rank in the top 32 for luxury residential price growth

Toorak remained Melbourne's priciest suburb: REIV

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Perth property prices are being predicted to grow faster than most markets across Australia, according to the latest Property Price Forecasts from Domain.
The report has predicted while Perth house prices will fall about 5% in 2018, resulting in a median house price of $535,000.
They will, however, record growth of 5% in 2019 and 3% in 2020.
Domain economist Trent Wiltshire said the positive outlook was due to "fundamentals like the mining sector looking a little bit better, new mines are being built, there is more mining investment going on and job prospects are looking better in WA".
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Perth%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain
Perth unit prices are expected to fall by about 6% in 2018, and then prices are expected to grow by about 2% in 2019 and 2020.
"The state Treasury is forecasting economic growth to be a lot higher than it has been in the past few years and then a big driver for house prices is population growth," Wiltshire said.
"Not all signs are positive, with home-loan approvals continuing to trend downwards, market sentiment still weak and tighter lending conditions weighing on prices."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Perth%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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Perth property prices to tip back to growth through 2019-2020: Domain

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia abounds with locations where buyer activity is rising and there is strong potential for prices to rise, notwithstanding the general impression created by national media.
The latest edition of the Price Predictor Index by Hotspotting has identified good quantities of growth markets within our smaller capital cities and, in particular, within the many solid regional markets that exist, especially on the eastern side of the nation.
The very solid Adelaide market has large numbers of locations with rising demand, as does the recovering Perth market and the always-steady Canberra market.
Regional New South Wales, as I noted in an earlier column, has strong growth markets right across the state. In some, prices have already risen strongly in the past 6-12 months, while others have the potential for growth based on the current demand trends.
Regional Victoria has delivered the strongest price growth anywhere in Australia in the past year, in terms of locations where median prices have increased more than 20 percent. Other markets are now emerging, based on the sales trends, with the potential to deliver big growth.
Regional Tasmania has numerous growth markets, led by Launceston, and collectively has provided some of the nation’s strongest price growth recently, based on CoreLogic figures.
Regional Queensland is also sparking to life, led by double-digit growth in many of the suburbs of the Sunshine Coast and by recovering Central Queensland markets such as Mackay.
I regard The Price Predictor Index as an important report because it scrutinizes one of the key parts of the property price equation – demand - by charting the number of sales occurring in every suburb and town in Australia. 
The surveys are conducted every three months to identify patterns of demand – whether demand is rising in key markets, or whether demand is falling – or, as is the case in many locations, whether there’s a pattern of consistent and steady demand, quarter by quarter, over time.
The basic premise of this methodology is that prices respond to demand patterns – if demand is rising over time, prices will rise (all other things being equal). 
If demand is falling, price growth will slow down, and may eventually stop, and – in some instances – prices will fall.
The key factor here is that there’s a time lag. Prices don’t react instantaneously to changes in demand. It takes time for the changing demand patterns, whether up or down, to work through into property markets and create reactions in prices.
Demand in the Sydney was steadily falling away in 2016 but it wasn’t until 2017 that we saw the first clear signs of a slow-down in price growth, looking across all the data from multiple research sources.
And then in 2018, as the slow-down in demand continued, we saw prices falling in some parts of the Sydney market, although in most cases the decreases have been quite moderate.
Right now, prices are rising strongly in other Australian markets, including in Hobart; in the million-dollar suburbs of Canberra, Adelaide and Perth; and in numerous locations in regional Australia. In each case, these price rises were preceded by increases in sales volumes – in other words, increases in demand.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Demand in smaller capitals and solid regional markets will lead to property price growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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If you can believe the headlines, Australian property values are falling. The thing is, you can’t believe the headlines. In most of our major markets, values are not falling at all. 
The problem is the way research firms and economists like to generalise about price data, with a single number describing movements in the mythical thing they call “Australian property prices”. Like most generalised figures, this serves only to create confusion and misinformation. 
According to recent headlines, national values are falling, which means the average situation with prices is a small decline. This was an annual decrease of 0.4 percent, according to one source.
But, lurking behind this pointless and misleading single figure which apparently depicts our entire vast nation, are the following factors:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Regional areas overall are rising.</li>
<li class="li1">Five of the eight capital cities are rising.</li>
<li class="li1">The only significant market showing annual decline is Sydney, but the size of that market is dragging down the overall average.</li>
</ul>
The truth is that Australia abounds with major cities, some capital, some regional, with growth markets. Inspired by that reality, here are my ten leading cities with growth trajectories in 2018:-
Hobart: The Tasmanian capital is currently recording double-digit growth in its house prices and is likely to continue showing growth, underpinned by a vastly improved state economy. Property is selling faster there than any other capital city, vacancies are lower there than anywhere else and there’s no sign of activity slowing down. 
Canberra: Most research sources have Canberra values rising steadily. SQM Research’s index has Canberra up 8.5 percent. This is not surprising as the ACT economy is strong, Canberra vacancies are almost as low as Hobart’s, rents are rising and land prices are high (as a result of the ACT Government controlling land releases). All things considered, Canberra should be a national leader on price growth this year.
Brisbane: Overall, Brisbane isn’t showing much growth, but values are rising. When you look behind the generalised data, there are precincts with strong price rises. I expect Brisbane growth to gradually pick up this year because the underlying economy is improving, population data is favouring South-East Queensland again and infrastructure spending is rising. The affordability comparison also favours Brisbane.
Adelaide: The SA capital is similar to Brisbane. The generalised data shows only minor price growth, but individual precincts are doing much better, especially the top end. The SA economy is stronger than most realise and its steady improvement will boost the property market. I expect price growth is pick up as the year progresses. Adelaide offers great value-for-money and much better yields than the biggest cities.
Perth: The WA capital is one of those cities where values overall are still down, but it depends on whose figures you believe. SQM records a 3 percent annual rise in its Asking Prices Index for Perth. My own research shows that most of the million-dollar suburbs have had double-digit growth in the past year. There’s no doubt the Perth downturn is over and we will see further evidence of growth as the year unfolds.
Melbourne fringes: The single-growth figure to describe an entire large city never tells the full story. Melbourne overall has passed its peak but the outer ring suburbs are still very strong. The price growth in the past year in the northern fringes around Epping, the far south-east including Cranbourne, and the south-western regions around Werribee and Wyndham Vale, has been exceptional. 
Newcastle/Hunter Region: The City of Newcastle has been one of the nation’s outstanding markets recently. Values overall have increased in double digits and many suburbs have grown their median house prices by over 20 percent. The local economy is thriving and the affordability comparison with Sydney has helped. Now the growth is rippling out to nearby areas, including the towns of the Hunter region.
Geelong and nearby regions: Geelong has been the outstanding market in Victoria in the past year or so, and continues to deliver strong sales activity and price growth. It’s part of a wider trend, in which regional centres close to Melbourne are attracting spill-over population growth and demand for homes. Locations north and south of Melbourne continue to attract extraordinary sales activity and price growth.
Ballarat: This strong regional city could be included the previous paragraph as a regional centre near the state capital, but it deserves its own exclusive mention. More and more Melbourne buyers are targeting Ballarat because it’s well-connected to the big city and offers attractive affordability and a different kind of lifestyle. This is now a very busy market and I expect prices to show solid rises this year.
Sunshine Coast: I know many who followed our advice and bought into the Sunshine Coast market 12-18 months ago: they’re happy punters. The region’s economy is transitioning to a place of greater diversity and strength – and this is driving real estate demand. It’s attracting lots of new residents. This process is still in its infancy and there’s plenty more growth to come. Noosa, which has under-achieved for 10 years, has joined the growth party.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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