Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Price Growth

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Brisbane suburbs Sunnybank and Mount Gravatt showed the strongest growth in dwelling prices in Queensland over the last 10 years, according to CoreLogic’s latest data.
Sunnybank’s 10-year growth was 39.4%, while Mount Gravatt grew 33.2% during the same period, according to CoreLogic’s release. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/30/Qld10Years.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/30/Qld10Years.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/30/Qld10Years.png" alt=""></a>
CoreLogic’s methodology is based on the best performing property markets at an SA3 level (SA3 represents a regional area serviced by major transport &amp; commercial hub with a population of between 30,000 and 130,000 people).
The median price of dwellings in Sunnybank was $638,911. 
A three-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/64-everest-st-sunnybank-qld-4109?pid=p4ep-pdp%7Csold-pdp:property-history-cta#history" target="_blank">64 Everest Street, Sunnybank</a> (picture above) sold earlier this year for $630,000, close to the median dwelling price of the suburb. Previously, it changed hands for $460,000 in 2013 and also for $390,000 in 2012.
A five-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/23-breton-st-sunnybank-qld-4109?pid=p4ep-pdp%7Csold-pdp:property-history-cta#history" target="_blank">23 Breton Street in Sunnybank</a> sold for $590,000 in March 2017. Its sales history from CoreLogic shows it was bought for $323,000 a decade back in 2007.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/30/Sunnybank2.jpg" alt="">
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Brisbane's Sunnybank leads price growth in Queensland over 10 years: CoreLogic

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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Australia's national house price growth is likely to be flat - or possibly in low single digits - for the several years, according to UBS.
The latest UBS report, 'Get rich or borrow trying', warns that even small changes to credit conditions, such as a drop in availability of investor-only loans which have been targeted by the bank regulator, will "materially impact" house price growth.
According to UBS households are much more sensitive to tightening financial conditions from higher mortgage rates and the lagged impact of macroprudential measures than many realise.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">House price growth should moderate to around 7 per cent in 2017 and to between 0 per cent to 3 per cent in 2018, according to UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">But the “forever boom” is ending, UBS clients were told, according to The Australian.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="related-quotes section">"We would still characterise our outlook as a 'soft landing', given we still don't expect a sudden collapse in prices," they wrote in a report on Fairfax Media.</div>
"But it does seem likely that Australia faces a prolonged multi-year period of flat or low single digit nominal price growth." 
Signs of a slowdown in house price are fast-emerging. House prices in Sydney fell 0.1 per cent over September, the first fall since late 2015, on Corelogic figures and 1.9 per cent, on Domain figures.
Veteran analyst Louis Christopher is predicting sedate house price growth in Sydney of between 4 per cent to 8 per cent in 2018 if the cash rate and economy remains unchanged. 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian property prices headed for "prolonged" flat period: UBS 

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Australian housing prices have surged by a massive 6,556% since 1961 — an average increase of 8.1% every year, the Switzerland-based Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has calculated.
The BIS authors analysed "upswings" and "downswings" across 47 countries.
"The upswings lasted on average 13 years; with the longest one, in Australia, still continuing after half a century," the BIS authors wrote.
The longest downswing was experienced by Japan, for a period of 13 years.
From 1961 to 2016, the report says Australian house prices have grown by an average of 8.1% a year, in "real" or inflation-adjusted terms.
It was done as part of a paper exploring how interest rates affect the price of real estate.
Compared to other advanced economies in the past five decades, Australia had the sixth highest rise in annual property prices.
It was beaten by Spain (+9.9%), UK (+9.3%), New Zealand (+8.8%), Italy (+8.8%) and Ireland (8.7%).
Recently, a $570,000 sale took place at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-nsw-burwood-126492282" target="_blank">9/189 Liverpool Road, Enfield</a>. 
The ordinary apartment complex, Lindsay Gardens, was the world’s first ever strata-titled building when sold off in 1961.
The apartment first sold at £5200, which equates roughly to $10,400.
It's ensuing price growth reflected 7.5% annual gains.
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7.5% annual growth since 1961 sale at Enfield

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An improvement in market sentiment across most states in the third quarter of 2017 suggests there may still be some legs left in the housing market, with Melbourne showing promising growth while Sydney slowing from the 20 percent rises, according to NAB's latest survey. 
Market conditions continue to vary considerably across locations, with each city seemingly at very different stages of their housing cycles, says NAB Residential Property Survey.  
Annual property price growth across eight capital cities has moderated only marginally to 8.5% y/y in September, down from this year’s high of 11.4% in May. 
“Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart have each continued to see double digit yearly rates of growth, although the momentum is clearly with Melbourne and Hobart, as Sydney is seeing a much more pronounced slowing in recent months - a trend that is reflected in other measure of the market pulse, including auction volumes, clearance rates, and market sentiment,” it says. 
Perth housing prices remain lower from the same time last year, although the decline has slowed since mid-2016, consistent with expectations that the worst of the economy’s post mining boom woes may be over. 
“But despite prices remaining a little more resilient than expected this quarter (outside Sydney), we have maintained our view for more muted market performance going forward, particularly following our revised expectations for RBA rate hikes which have been brought forward to mid-2018 (from H2 2019),” said NAB. 
Hobart has outperformed others in annual growth, with prices rising more than 14% over the year to September. 
In the bigger east coast markets, Melbourne has seen the strongest growth, rising around 12% over the year. Sydney is close behind, at 11% growth, but well below the nearly 20% growth earlier this year. 
For the other capital cities, the Brisbane and Adelaide markets are seeing more modest gains, which are more in keeping with subdued increases in household income, while Darwin is the only other major city besides Perth to see declines over the past year, NAB said.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABHousing.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABHousing.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABUnits.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABUnits.png" alt="">
Detached house prices have generally performed better across most markets. In many cases that simply reflects the land component of the property price, however, the apartment segment in some markets have also come under pressure from supply-side concerns, such as Brisbane, where reports of settlement issues have become common. 
Melbourne has often been cited as a market with apartment oversupply risk as well, however, solid population growth and an overall buoyant housing market has helped to underpin near double digit growth in unit prices - similar observations can also be made for Sydney, said NAB.
“We have long anticipated a definitive shift to more moderate market conditions, brought about by a combination of factors (which vary across markets) including deteriorating affordability, rising supply (primarily apartments) and tighter credit conditions following the macro prudential response to financial stability concerns (mainly targeted at investors). 
“While we are yet to see clear evidence of that, we continue to hold this view - although recent price trends suggest the timing of the shift may vary somewhat across markets. Additionally, we anticipate an even higher degree of uncertainty around the price outlook than usual given the relatively unchartered waters of macro prudential intervention,” the note said.
It added that regulatory intervention are often thought to have their greatest (dampening) impact on the market early on, before losing their potency over time - making the seemingly divergent trends between the Sydney and Melbourne markets at present all the more perplexing. 
“This could suggest some upside risk to our outlook should prudential policy lose potency, helping Sydney regain some of its previous price momentum. Foreign demand is another consideration that is difficult to ascertain.”
The survey noted the impact of policy to curb foreign capital entering the Australian property market.
It said that there were a number of positive elements that should support the market enough to prevent a severe adjustment in prices (assuming important factors such as the economic outlook play out largely as expected). 
Mortgage rates remain near record lows (despite a tightening in credit conditions earlier this year), and some lenders appear to be taking their foot off the brake again more recently - according to RBA data the discounted variable mortgage rate has returned to its previous low. 
That is helping to keep mortgage interest payments well down on previous peaks (as a share of disposable income), despite disappointing growth in incomes. 
Meanwhile, the housing supply-demand balance remains quite favourable, with most cities (excluding Perth and Darwin) seeing rental vacancy rates in undersupplied territory (below 3%), consistent with NAB estimates that show a high degree of pent-up demand for housing in many states (especially NSW and Victoria) - population growth in Victoria has been particularly strong, and is expected to remain elevated. 
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NAB expects a more muted property market in 2018, with RBA likely to hike rates

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Sydney’s apartment boom has been more evenly spread than Brisbane and Melbourne, and fears that oversupply will cause a fall in prices are overblown, says a senior Reserve Bank official.
RBA’s assistant governor of economics, Luci Ellis, noted that while growth in the building of new Australian homes had been outpacing population growth, Sydney was not expected to suffer a big price fall. 
Brisbane was the real risk, Dr Ellis said.
"It's a truism that the more supply you have, the weaker prices are going to be relative to what would have happened if supply had been lower," Dr Ellis told a lunch of the Women In Economics Network and the Australian Business Economists in Sydney on Wednesday.
"But, at this stage, we're not seeing that ... that supply, in and of itself, is going to create a big fall in prices and certainly not in Sydney."
Instead, Dr Ellis singled out Brisbane, pointing to the high geographic clustering of the new developments set to hit the market this year.
"This year is crunch time" for Brisbane, she said.
"Over the years, we've pointed more to Melbourne and to Brisbane as where that's more likely to cause trouble in terms of concentrated increases in supply resulting in lower prices and therefore potentially distress,” Fairfax Media quoted Dr Ellis as saying.
Sydney was a different story though, she said. 
“Whereas, in Sydney, it's sort of all over the city, so it's much more evenly spread and so less likely to create a really concentrated local price effect."
And while new construction was running ahead of population demand, that was unlikely to last as a “point of peak” for building approvals had been reached. 
“Building approvals have stepped down to a new level. The backlog of work in residential property is now starting to decline, even in NSW and Victoria, but particularly in Queensland,” she said.
"So in some sense, this is a phase that will eventually end and we won't be building more than the population requires."
On the demand side, Dr Ellis said Melbourne's surprisingly strong population growth gave strong cause for belief that prices would not fall there.
"Similarly, population growth remains fairly strong in Sydney, so it's not clear to me that we end up with a serious problem here."
Home price figures released by the Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed Australian home prices rose 10.3 per cent last financial year and 13.8 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne. But price growth has slowed in Sydney,  with just 2.3 per cent increase in the final quarter.
According to a CommSec analysis of the Bureau's data, the median price of houses transacted in Sydney in the June quarter was $1.02 million, $110,000 more than a year ago.
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RBA official fears for Brisbane apartment prices

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The National Australian Bank has tipped a halving of house price growth in the nation's major capitals because of rising rates, tougher regulation and falling affordability.
Other factors contributing to the scenario include slow wages growth, falling overseas demand, record low rental yields and a big increase in apartment supply in some cities.
House prices are expected to grow by about 4.3 percent next year, which is less than half the current rate in four of the nation's capital cities.
Apartment values are expected to go into reverse dropping 0.4 percent, according to the bank's analysis.
The report follows research by ANZ earlier this month saying housing price growth would slow to 4.4 percent this calendar year down from 10.9 percent last year.
The NAB report, being circulated among mortgage brokers, claims property is "more resilient than expected", led by strong growth in Sydney and Melbourne shrugging off concerns about apartment over-supply.
House prices across the nation are expected to grow by 7.2 percent with apartments by 6.8 percent for the remainder of 2017.
"Ongoing strength in housing demand is expected to help offset supply concerns, although policy responses are creating additional uncertainty," the report says.
"On a more positive note, population growth is expected to remain solid, especially in Victoria, helping to drive underlying demand and soak-up some of the feared excess in supply," it says.
The NAB has increased its price projections for Sydney for the remainder of the year from 4.5 percent to 10.5 percent.
"Price forecasts have been revised higher, but risks still linger," the report says of the Sydney market.
It has also revised growth for Melbourne from 5.6 percent to 10.8 percent for this year before slipping to 5.5 percent next year.
"Melbourne is performing well, although over-supply concerns drive a wedge between house and unit prices. This divergence is expected to continue," the report concludes according to the Australian Financial Review article.
Brisbane's apartment sector will continue to under-perform but overall growth is "relatively steady", the report states.
House prices are expected to increase by 1 percent and 2 percent next year. Apartment prices are likely to fall by up to 2 percent this year and next.
Adelaide is steady, despite low economic growth and high unemployment. Adelaide house prices are expected to grow about 2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2018.
Perth's apartment and house prices are expected to continue fall by up to 6 percent during the remainder of the year.
"Tentative signs that both the local economy and property market may stabilise in the medium term suggest we could see flat-to-modestly higher prices from 2018," the report states.
Prices in Hobart have been accelerating because of an improving economy and affordability.
"Further gains are expected, but at a slower rate," the report concludes. House prices in the Tasmanian capital are expected to grow by about 7 percent this year and slow to 1.7 percent next. Unit prices are also expected to slow.
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NAB forecasts price growth to halve in 2018

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Throughout the past 20 years, CoreLogic research confirmed that it’s been much more common for combined capital city dwelling values to increase rather than fall.
CoreLogic head of research Cameron Kusher said although value rises have been more common, it doesn’t mean that the housing market is bulletproof and in some instances values have fallen quite dramatically and rapidly.
“Typically the Reserve Bank (RBA) or the Government have adjusted fiscal and/or monetary policy to support the housing market and arrest the value falls,” he said.
Today’s CoreLogic research shows that across the combined capital cities, dwelling values increased by 346.4 percent over the 20 years to April 2017.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-08%20at%2011.24.55%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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In the two periods in which values have fallen, capital city dwelling values fell by -6.1 percent between March and December 2008 and they fell by - 7.4 percent between October 2010 and May 2012.
At an individual capital city level housing markets have cycled quite differently however, the majority of capital cities recorded a decline in dwelling values in both 2008 and from late 2010/early 2011.
The 2008 decline occurred as the financial crisis hit with values falling however, stimulus measures in the form of aggressive interest rate cuts along with cash handouts and boosts to first home buyer’s grants proved enough to spur demand and turnaround the decline in values.
In 2010 dwelling values fell as the post financial stimulus was being wound out of the market with interest rates increasing and first home buyer incentives being removed.
These value falls were arrested as the RBA reversed direction and started to cut official interest rates again in late 2011.
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Mr Kusher said looking at the declines which commenced in 2008, the magnitude of falls was fairly minor considering most advanced economies fell into recession as a result of the financial crisis.
“Hobart and Darwin were relatively unaffected by the declines however, Melbourne (-8.3 percent), Perth (-6.8 percent) and Sydney (-6.2 percent) were more impacted than all other capital cities," he said.
“The period of decline proved quite short and it has become clear that the stimulus measures effectively staved off sharper declines and possibly a national recession.”
From 2010 to 2011/12 all capital cities experienced falls in dwelling values as the financial crisis stimulus and low interest rates were wound out of the market.
Sydney (-5.0 percent), Adelaide (-6.9 percent) and Canberra (-4.4 percent) were the only capital cities in which values didn’t fall by more than 10 percent over this period.
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The largest falls were recorded in Darwin (-19.7 percent), Hobart (- 14.3 percent) and Brisbane (-11.7 percent).
Over the period of falls, Darwin (-1.2 percent) averaged the largest average monthly fall along with Hobart (-0.8 percent), Melbourne (-0.6 percent) and Perth (-0.6 percent).
Across the other capital cities, Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra recorded average declines of -0.3 percent/month and Brisbane’s declines averaged -0.5%/month.
Mr Kusher said this analysis serves as a reminder that although capital city dwelling values have largely increased over the past 20 years, they are not immune from potential declines.
“The impetus for previous declines has been around external economic shocks along with the stimulus of low interest rates and grants to first home buyers being removed," he said.
"Australia is not seeing any of the shocking economic conditions of the size of the 2008 financial crisis.
“We are seeing the unemployment rate at similar levels to 2008/09 and historically high levels of underemployment.”
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CoreLogic also reported that the market is slowly seeing historic low mortgage rates move higher against a backdrop of record-low wages growth and record-high household debt.
Mr Kusher said depending on how much mortgage rates are increased (noting that this is not happening due to the RBA) home owners should be aware that it could lead to a slowing or even some potential falls in dwelling values.
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Falling property prices and the affect it has on the overall market: Cameron Kusher

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Cranes in the sky provide insight into the constructor sector, especially when it comes to residential unit supply.
To illustrate the scale of construction in Sydney alone, which has more than 50 percent of all cranes in Australia, the residential crane count rose to 292 in March this year from just 62 in September 2014.
AMP Capital’s latest weekly economic and market update points to the crane numbers as an indicator that home price growth has peaked in Sydney and Melbourne and that price declines lie ahead, particularly for units. 
In explaining its outlook, AMP Capital says “the latest Australian bank rating downgrades tell us nothing new but the drip feed of negative news around the property market in Sydney and Melbourne is continuing to mount: surging unit supply, bank rate hikes, tightening lending standards, reduced property investor tax deductions, ever tighter restrictions around foreign buyers”.
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/CraneAMP.png" alt=""> 
Residential cranes soared to 292 around Sydney which accounts for 45% of all Australian cranes and 53% of all residential cranes in Australia, the RLB Crane Index indicates. 
An analysis of the last crane index, based on September's count, showed over a third of the cranes building Australia's next wave of apartments due for completion in the coming two years are in the ‘blacklisted’ postcodes of lenders, meaning banks view them as risky suburbs to lend, the Australian Financial Review reported. 
The settlement risks, compounded by China’s crackdown on outflows and Australian banks’ tightening of credit to Chinese investors, could point to a crisis.
According to the March count, residential cranes in Sydney jumped by 34 to 292 from 258 six months earlier. In Melbourne, the number of residential cranes rose by a net 13 to 122 from 109 in September, but remained below the total 124 counted a year ago. 
Ofcourse the biggest concerns of an oversupply of apartments are in Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/CraneCount.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/CraneCount.png" alt="">
As to the broader crane index, the number of cranes on the skylines of seven of 10 cities counted fell to a total 654 in March from 666 in September, driven by a decline in the number of cranes on commercial, education and public projects. 
This was the first decline in the total number of cranes across Australia's skyline since Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) Oceania Research &amp; Development and Communication teams created the RLB Crane Index in 2012.
But even as residential cranes dominated the count – and increased to 548, or 84 per cent of the total – the sector showed further signs of the slowdown that was first apparent six months ago. While apartment-heavy Melbourne increased its number of cranes after September's fall, it failed to make up all of that lost ground. Brisbane declined further.
The report also reflects the moves by developers to smaller-scale projects in inner-ring suburban away from large CBD projects. 
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Crane count indicates home price growth may have peaked in Sydney and Melbourne: AMP Capital

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Canberra has recently joined the biggest cities with strong price growth, if you can believe the numbers.
As is the case with all our capital cities, the level of growth in Canberra house prices depends on which research source you favour.
The latest figure from the Australian Bureau of Statistics records annual growth of 6.6 percent, while the Real Estate Institute of Australia says 5.1 percent. But Domain, SQM Research and CoreLogic, using their various mysterious methodologies, all have Canberra house prices (on average) rising by more than 10 percent in the past 12 months.
The uplift in price growth in the national capital is quite recent. Unlike Sydney three hours up the highway, Canberra has not been pumping for the past 3-4 years. It went through a period of malaise when the Federal Government downsized the public service and the market was also impacted by an oversupply of apartments.
Canberra has got those negative symptoms out of its system and appears to be growing again. Certainly that aligns with my analysis of sales activity, which have been elevated in the past two years.
But what really stands out for me is the uplift in activity and prices in New South Wales locations close to Canberra.
The proximity of Queanbeyan (now part of the newly-formed Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council area) to the nation’s capital is certainly helping local property markets.
The region has strong population growth, unemployment is low and new housing estates are under construction – helped by Queanbeyan’s affordability relative to Canberra, with median prices for both houses and units generally below those in the national capital.
Canberra prices are kept artificially high by the tight control of land releases and general dwelling supply by the ACT Government. But Queanbeyan, while closer to central Canberra than many ACT suburbs, is in NSW and has cheaper prices. Many of its suburbs have median house prices in the $400,000s while Queanbeyan, Queanbeyan East and Crestwood all have median unit prices in the $200,000s – something that’s difficult to find within the ACT.
Property sales activity in Queanbeyan increased in 2015 and 2016, leading it to become a standout region for growth, as identified in the Autumn edition of the Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting.
Good rental yields are another attraction, with several suburbs having median yields around 5 percent for houses and 6 percent for units.
Goulburn, about 80km from Canberra, also benefits from being close to the national capital and having much cheaper house prices. It’s a growth market, partly because of local events, partly its proximity to Canberra and partly a Ripple Effect from Sydney’s growth market.
Sales activity has been rising steadily in the past 18 months and this has generated solid growth in Goulburn’s median house price (up 7% to about $350,000 in the past 12 months).
Goulburn (the LGA’s population is around 30,000) has long been a solid regional centre servicing the Southern Tablelands area of NSW near the ACT border.
Long-term, it will benefit from its location in the growth corridor linking Canberra with Sydney – with growing numbers living in affordable Goulburn and working in Canberra.
It would also be a key beneficiary of plans for high-speed rail links between Canberra and Sydney, if that grand plan ever happens.
Goulburn has more diversity to its economy than your standard regional centre, with a big wind farm industry, the presence of the NSW Police College and also the Goulburn Correctional Centre.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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Canberra's strong price growth extends to neighbouring cities: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Dwelling value growth was flat in Sydney over April with Melbourne values up 0.5 percent over the month according to CoreLogic's Hedonic Home Value Index for April
Tim Lawless, head of CoreLogic research said the moderation in growth was due largely to a slightly negative April result in Australia’s largest capital city housing market, Sydney, where dwelling values were broadly flat (rounded up from - 0.04 percent) over the month. 
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"The result for Melbourne was also lower than previous months of 2017, with dwelling values up 0.5 percent over the month,” he said.
"Dwelling values increased by 0.1 percent across the combined capital cities in April, with housing market conditions slowing in both Sydney and Melbourne.
"The softer results across Australia’s two largest capital cities comes after dramatic capital gains were recorded over the second half of 2016 and the first three months of 2017.
"Between July 2016 and the end of March 2017, Sydney dwelling values surged 11.3 percent, whilst Melbourne values increased slightly more at 12.6 percent in the same period.
"The April results mark the weakest monthly change in dwelling values across the Sydney market since December 2015, when CoreLogic reported a 1.2 percent fall in Sydney dwelling values; the soft reading comes after dwelling values have risen by 75.1 percent over the past five years, an annual rate of growth of 15 percent over this period.
"Most other capital cities also recorded softer growth conditions in April than for the first three months of 2017.
The trends generally remain positive, with quarterly growth of 2.9 percent across the combined capitals index.
"Based on the rolling quarterly change in dwelling values, the strongest housing market is currently in Hobart, where home values have risen 5.1 percent over the past three months.
"Hobart’s housing market has staged a solid improvement over the past two years and is now the third best performing capital city on an annual basis, with dwelling values moving almost 14 percent higher over the past twelve months alone.
“We need to be cautious in calling a peak in the market after only one month of soft results.
“April, in particular, coincides with seasonal factors including Easter, school holidays and ANZAC day long weekend.
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"The softer results should also be viewed against a backdrop of an ever evolving regulatory landscape s which is firmly aimed at slowing investment and interest-only mortgage lending. Testament to this is mortgage rates which have been edging higher, particularly for investors and interest-only loans, as well as rental yields which have been hovering around record lows. The higher cost of debt, as well as stricter lending and servicing criteria, has likely dented investment demand over recent months.” 
“In a city like Sydney, where more than 50 percent of new mortgage demand has been from investors, a tighter lending environment for investment purposes has the potential to impact housing demand more than other cities."
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