Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Price Growth

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Brisbane suburbs Sunnybank and Mount Gravatt showed the strongest growth in dwelling prices in Queensland over the last 10 years, according to CoreLogic’s latest data.
Sunnybank’s 10-year growth was 39.4%, while Mount Gravatt grew 33.2% during the same period, according to CoreLogic’s release. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/30/Qld10Years.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/30/Qld10Years.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/30/Qld10Years.png" alt=""></a>
CoreLogic’s methodology is based on the best performing property markets at an SA3 level (SA3 represents a regional area serviced by major transport &amp; commercial hub with a population of between 30,000 and 130,000 people).
The median price of dwellings in Sunnybank was $638,911. 
A three-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/64-everest-st-sunnybank-qld-4109?pid=p4ep-pdp%7Csold-pdp:property-history-cta#history" target="_blank">64 Everest Street, Sunnybank</a> (picture above) sold earlier this year for $630,000, close to the median dwelling price of the suburb. Previously, it changed hands for $460,000 in 2013 and also for $390,000 in 2012.
A five-bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property/23-breton-st-sunnybank-qld-4109?pid=p4ep-pdp%7Csold-pdp:property-history-cta#history" target="_blank">23 Breton Street in Sunnybank</a> sold for $590,000 in March 2017. Its sales history from CoreLogic shows it was bought for $323,000 a decade back in 2007.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/30/Sunnybank2.jpg" alt="">
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Brisbane's Sunnybank leads price growth in Queensland over 10 years: CoreLogic

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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Australia's national house price growth is likely to be flat - or possibly in low single digits - for the several years, according to UBS.
The latest UBS report, 'Get rich or borrow trying', warns that even small changes to credit conditions, such as a drop in availability of investor-only loans which have been targeted by the bank regulator, will "materially impact" house price growth.
According to UBS households are much more sensitive to tightening financial conditions from higher mortgage rates and the lagged impact of macroprudential measures than many realise.
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">House price growth should moderate to around 7 per cent in 2017 and to between 0 per cent to 3 per cent in 2018, according to UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">But the “forever boom” is ending, UBS clients were told, according to The Australian.</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> </div>
<div class="related-quotes section">"We would still characterise our outlook as a 'soft landing', given we still don't expect a sudden collapse in prices," they wrote in a report on Fairfax Media.</div>
"But it does seem likely that Australia faces a prolonged multi-year period of flat or low single digit nominal price growth." 
Signs of a slowdown in house price are fast-emerging. House prices in Sydney fell 0.1 per cent over September, the first fall since late 2015, on Corelogic figures and 1.9 per cent, on Domain figures.
Veteran analyst Louis Christopher is predicting sedate house price growth in Sydney of between 4 per cent to 8 per cent in 2018 if the cash rate and economy remains unchanged. 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian property prices headed for "prolonged" flat period: UBS 

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Australian housing prices have surged by a massive 6,556% since 1961 — an average increase of 8.1% every year, the Switzerland-based Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has calculated.
The BIS authors analysed "upswings" and "downswings" across 47 countries.
"The upswings lasted on average 13 years; with the longest one, in Australia, still continuing after half a century," the BIS authors wrote.
The longest downswing was experienced by Japan, for a period of 13 years.
From 1961 to 2016, the report says Australian house prices have grown by an average of 8.1% a year, in "real" or inflation-adjusted terms.
It was done as part of a paper exploring how interest rates affect the price of real estate.
Compared to other advanced economies in the past five decades, Australia had the sixth highest rise in annual property prices.
It was beaten by Spain (+9.9%), UK (+9.3%), New Zealand (+8.8%), Italy (+8.8%) and Ireland (8.7%).
Recently, a $570,000 sale took place at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-nsw-burwood-126492282" target="_blank">9/189 Liverpool Road, Enfield</a>. 
The ordinary apartment complex, Lindsay Gardens, was the world’s first ever strata-titled building when sold off in 1961.
The apartment first sold at £5200, which equates roughly to $10,400.
It's ensuing price growth reflected 7.5% annual gains.
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7.5% annual growth since 1961 sale at Enfield

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An improvement in market sentiment across most states in the third quarter of 2017 suggests there may still be some legs left in the housing market, with Melbourne showing promising growth while Sydney slowing from the 20 percent rises, according to NAB's latest survey. 
Market conditions continue to vary considerably across locations, with each city seemingly at very different stages of their housing cycles, says NAB Residential Property Survey.  
Annual property price growth across eight capital cities has moderated only marginally to 8.5% y/y in September, down from this year’s high of 11.4% in May. 
“Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart have each continued to see double digit yearly rates of growth, although the momentum is clearly with Melbourne and Hobart, as Sydney is seeing a much more pronounced slowing in recent months - a trend that is reflected in other measure of the market pulse, including auction volumes, clearance rates, and market sentiment,” it says. 
Perth housing prices remain lower from the same time last year, although the decline has slowed since mid-2016, consistent with expectations that the worst of the economy’s post mining boom woes may be over. 
“But despite prices remaining a little more resilient than expected this quarter (outside Sydney), we have maintained our view for more muted market performance going forward, particularly following our revised expectations for RBA rate hikes which have been brought forward to mid-2018 (from H2 2019),” said NAB. 
Hobart has outperformed others in annual growth, with prices rising more than 14% over the year to September. 
In the bigger east coast markets, Melbourne has seen the strongest growth, rising around 12% over the year. Sydney is close behind, at 11% growth, but well below the nearly 20% growth earlier this year. 
For the other capital cities, the Brisbane and Adelaide markets are seeing more modest gains, which are more in keeping with subdued increases in household income, while Darwin is the only other major city besides Perth to see declines over the past year, NAB said.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABHousing.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABHousing.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABUnits.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/16/NABUnits.png" alt="">
Detached house prices have generally performed better across most markets. In many cases that simply reflects the land component of the property price, however, the apartment segment in some markets have also come under pressure from supply-side concerns, such as Brisbane, where reports of settlement issues have become common. 
Melbourne has often been cited as a market with apartment oversupply risk as well, however, solid population growth and an overall buoyant housing market has helped to underpin near double digit growth in unit prices - similar observations can also be made for Sydney, said NAB.
“We have long anticipated a definitive shift to more moderate market conditions, brought about by a combination of factors (which vary across markets) including deteriorating affordability, rising supply (primarily apartments) and tighter credit conditions following the macro prudential response to financial stability concerns (mainly targeted at investors). 
“While we are yet to see clear evidence of that, we continue to hold this view - although recent price trends suggest the timing of the shift may vary somewhat across markets. Additionally, we anticipate an even higher degree of uncertainty around the price outlook than usual given the relatively unchartered waters of macro prudential intervention,” the note said.
It added that regulatory intervention are often thought to have their greatest (dampening) impact on the market early on, before losing their potency over time - making the seemingly divergent trends between the Sydney and Melbourne markets at present all the more perplexing. 
“This could suggest some upside risk to our outlook should prudential policy lose potency, helping Sydney regain some of its previous price momentum. Foreign demand is another consideration that is difficult to ascertain.”
The survey noted the impact of policy to curb foreign capital entering the Australian property market.
It said that there were a number of positive elements that should support the market enough to prevent a severe adjustment in prices (assuming important factors such as the economic outlook play out largely as expected). 
Mortgage rates remain near record lows (despite a tightening in credit conditions earlier this year), and some lenders appear to be taking their foot off the brake again more recently - according to RBA data the discounted variable mortgage rate has returned to its previous low. 
That is helping to keep mortgage interest payments well down on previous peaks (as a share of disposable income), despite disappointing growth in incomes. 
Meanwhile, the housing supply-demand balance remains quite favourable, with most cities (excluding Perth and Darwin) seeing rental vacancy rates in undersupplied territory (below 3%), consistent with NAB estimates that show a high degree of pent-up demand for housing in many states (especially NSW and Victoria) - population growth in Victoria has been particularly strong, and is expected to remain elevated. 
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NAB expects a more muted property market in 2018, with RBA likely to hike rates

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Sydney’s apartment boom has been more evenly spread than Brisbane and Melbourne, and fears that oversupply will cause a fall in prices are overblown, says a senior Reserve Bank official.
RBA’s assistant governor of economics, Luci Ellis, noted that while growth in the building of new Australian homes had been outpacing population growth, Sydney was not expected to suffer a big price fall. 
Brisbane was the real risk, Dr Ellis said.
"It's a truism that the more supply you have, the weaker prices are going to be relative to what would have happened if supply had been lower," Dr Ellis told a lunch of the Women In Economics Network and the Australian Business Economists in Sydney on Wednesday.
"But, at this stage, we're not seeing that ... that supply, in and of itself, is going to create a big fall in prices and certainly not in Sydney."
Instead, Dr Ellis singled out Brisbane, pointing to the high geographic clustering of the new developments set to hit the market this year.
"This year is crunch time" for Brisbane, she said.
"Over the years, we've pointed more to Melbourne and to Brisbane as where that's more likely to cause trouble in terms of concentrated increases in supply resulting in lower prices and therefore potentially distress,” Fairfax Media quoted Dr Ellis as saying.
Sydney was a different story though, she said. 
“Whereas, in Sydney, it's sort of all over the city, so it's much more evenly spread and so less likely to create a really concentrated local price effect."
And while new construction was running ahead of population demand, that was unlikely to last as a “point of peak” for building approvals had been reached. 
“Building approvals have stepped down to a new level. The backlog of work in residential property is now starting to decline, even in NSW and Victoria, but particularly in Queensland,” she said.
"So in some sense, this is a phase that will eventually end and we won't be building more than the population requires."
On the demand side, Dr Ellis said Melbourne's surprisingly strong population growth gave strong cause for belief that prices would not fall there.
"Similarly, population growth remains fairly strong in Sydney, so it's not clear to me that we end up with a serious problem here."
Home price figures released by the Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed Australian home prices rose 10.3 per cent last financial year and 13.8 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne. But price growth has slowed in Sydney,  with just 2.3 per cent increase in the final quarter.
According to a CommSec analysis of the Bureau's data, the median price of houses transacted in Sydney in the June quarter was $1.02 million, $110,000 more than a year ago.
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RBA official fears for Brisbane apartment prices

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The National Australian Bank has tipped a halving of house price growth in the nation's major capitals because of rising rates, tougher regulation and falling affordability.
Other factors contributing to the scenario include slow wages growth, falling overseas demand, record low rental yields and a big increase in apartment supply in some cities.
House prices are expected to grow by about 4.3 percent next year, which is less than half the current rate in four of the nation's capital cities.
Apartment values are expected to go into reverse dropping 0.4 percent, according to the bank's analysis.
The report follows research by ANZ earlier this month saying housing price growth would slow to 4.4 percent this calendar year down from 10.9 percent last year.
The NAB report, being circulated among mortgage brokers, claims property is "more resilient than expected", led by strong growth in Sydney and Melbourne shrugging off concerns about apartment over-supply.
House prices across the nation are expected to grow by 7.2 percent with apartments by 6.8 percent for the remainder of 2017.
"Ongoing strength in housing demand is expected to help offset supply concerns, although policy responses are creating additional uncertainty," the report says.
"On a more positive note, population growth is expected to remain solid, especially in Victoria, helping to drive underlying demand and soak-up some of the feared excess in supply," it says.
The NAB has increased its price projections for Sydney for the remainder of the year from 4.5 percent to 10.5 percent.
"Price forecasts have been revised higher, but risks still linger," the report says of the Sydney market.
It has also revised growth for Melbourne from 5.6 percent to 10.8 percent for this year before slipping to 5.5 percent next year.
"Melbourne is performing well, although over-supply concerns drive a wedge between house and unit prices. This divergence is expected to continue," the report concludes according to the Australian Financial Review article.
Brisbane's apartment sector will continue to under-perform but overall growth is "relatively steady", the report states.
House prices are expected to increase by 1 percent and 2 percent next year. Apartment prices are likely to fall by up to 2 percent this year and next.
Adelaide is steady, despite low economic growth and high unemployment. Adelaide house prices are expected to grow about 2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2018.
Perth's apartment and house prices are expected to continue fall by up to 6 percent during the remainder of the year.
"Tentative signs that both the local economy and property market may stabilise in the medium term suggest we could see flat-to-modestly higher prices from 2018," the report states.
Prices in Hobart have been accelerating because of an improving economy and affordability.
"Further gains are expected, but at a slower rate," the report concludes. House prices in the Tasmanian capital are expected to grow by about 7 percent this year and slow to 1.7 percent next. Unit prices are also expected to slow.
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NAB forecasts price growth to halve in 2018

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Throughout the past 20 years, CoreLogic research confirmed that it’s been much more common for combined capital city dwelling values to increase rather than fall.
CoreLogic head of research Cameron Kusher said although value rises have been more common, it doesn’t mean that the housing market is bulletproof and in some instances values have fallen quite dramatically and rapidly.
“Typically the Reserve Bank (RBA) or the Government have adjusted fiscal and/or monetary policy to support the housing market and arrest the value falls,” he said.
Today’s CoreLogic research shows that across the combined capital cities, dwelling values increased by 346.4 percent over the 20 years to April 2017.
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In the two periods in which values have fallen, capital city dwelling values fell by -6.1 percent between March and December 2008 and they fell by - 7.4 percent between October 2010 and May 2012.
At an individual capital city level housing markets have cycled quite differently however, the majority of capital cities recorded a decline in dwelling values in both 2008 and from late 2010/early 2011.
The 2008 decline occurred as the financial crisis hit with values falling however, stimulus measures in the form of aggressive interest rate cuts along with cash handouts and boosts to first home buyer’s grants proved enough to spur demand and turnaround the decline in values.
In 2010 dwelling values fell as the post financial stimulus was being wound out of the market with interest rates increasing and first home buyer incentives being removed.
These value falls were arrested as the RBA reversed direction and started to cut official interest rates again in late 2011.
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Mr Kusher said looking at the declines which commenced in 2008, the magnitude of falls was fairly minor considering most advanced economies fell into recession as a result of the financial crisis.
“Hobart and Darwin were relatively unaffected by the declines however, Melbourne (-8.3 percent), Perth (-6.8 percent) and Sydney (-6.2 percent) were more impacted than all other capital cities," he said.
“The period of decline proved quite short and it has become clear that the stimulus measures effectively staved off sharper declines and possibly a national recession.”
From 2010 to 2011/12 all capital cities experienced falls in dwelling values as the financial crisis stimulus and low interest rates were wound out of the market.
Sydney (-5.0 percent), Adelaide (-6.9 percent) and Canberra (-4.4 percent) were the only capital cities in which values didn’t fall by more than 10 percent over this period.
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The largest falls were recorded in Darwin (-19.7 percent), Hobart (- 14.3 percent) and Brisbane (-11.7 percent).
Over the period of falls, Darwin (-1.2 percent) averaged the largest average monthly fall along with Hobart (-0.8 percent), Melbourne (-0.6 percent) and Perth (-0.6 percent).
Across the other capital cities, Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra recorded average declines of -0.3 percent/month and Brisbane’s declines averaged -0.5%/month.
Mr Kusher said this analysis serves as a reminder that although capital city dwelling values have largely increased over the past 20 years, they are not immune from potential declines.
“The impetus for previous declines has been around external economic shocks along with the stimulus of low interest rates and grants to first home buyers being removed," he said.
"Australia is not seeing any of the shocking economic conditions of the size of the 2008 financial crisis.
“We are seeing the unemployment rate at similar levels to 2008/09 and historically high levels of underemployment.”
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CoreLogic also reported that the market is slowly seeing historic low mortgage rates move higher against a backdrop of record-low wages growth and record-high household debt.
Mr Kusher said depending on how much mortgage rates are increased (noting that this is not happening due to the RBA) home owners should be aware that it could lead to a slowing or even some potential falls in dwelling values.
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Falling property prices and the affect it has on the overall market: Cameron Kusher

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Cranes in the sky provide insight into the constructor sector, especially when it comes to residential unit supply.
To illustrate the scale of construction in Sydney alone, which has more than 50 percent of all cranes in Australia, the residential crane count rose to 292 in March this year from just 62 in September 2014.
AMP Capital’s latest weekly economic and market update points to the crane numbers as an indicator that home price growth has peaked in Sydney and Melbourne and that price declines lie ahead, particularly for units. 
In explaining its outlook, AMP Capital says “the latest Australian bank rating downgrades tell us nothing new but the drip feed of negative news around the property market in Sydney and Melbourne is continuing to mount: surging unit supply, bank rate hikes, tightening lending standards, reduced property investor tax deductions, ever tighter restrictions around foreign buyers”.
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/CraneAMP.png" alt=""> 
Residential cranes soared to 292 around Sydney which accounts for 45% of all Australian cranes and 53% of all residential cranes in Australia, the RLB Crane Index indicates. 
An analysis of the last crane index, based on September's count, showed over a third of the cranes building Australia's next wave of apartments due for completion in the coming two years are in the ‘blacklisted’ postcodes of lenders, meaning banks view them as risky suburbs to lend, the Australian Financial Review reported. 
The settlement risks, compounded by China’s crackdown on outflows and Australian banks’ tightening of credit to Chinese investors, could point to a crisis.
According to the March count, residential cranes in Sydney jumped by 34 to 292 from 258 six months earlier. In Melbourne, the number of residential cranes rose by a net 13 to 122 from 109 in September, but remained below the total 124 counted a year ago. 
Ofcourse the biggest concerns of an oversupply of apartments are in Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/26/CraneCount.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/26/CraneCount.png" alt="">
As to the broader crane index, the number of cranes on the skylines of seven of 10 cities counted fell to a total 654 in March from 666 in September, driven by a decline in the number of cranes on commercial, education and public projects. 
This was the first decline in the total number of cranes across Australia's skyline since Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) Oceania Research &amp; Development and Communication teams created the RLB Crane Index in 2012.
But even as residential cranes dominated the count – and increased to 548, or 84 per cent of the total – the sector showed further signs of the slowdown that was first apparent six months ago. While apartment-heavy Melbourne increased its number of cranes after September's fall, it failed to make up all of that lost ground. Brisbane declined further.
The report also reflects the moves by developers to smaller-scale projects in inner-ring suburban away from large CBD projects. 
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Crane count indicates home price growth may have peaked in Sydney and Melbourne: AMP Capital

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Canberra has recently joined the biggest cities with strong price growth, if you can believe the numbers.
As is the case with all our capital cities, the level of growth in Canberra house prices depends on which research source you favour.
The latest figure from the Australian Bureau of Statistics records annual growth of 6.6 percent, while the Real Estate Institute of Australia says 5.1 percent. But Domain, SQM Research and CoreLogic, using their various mysterious methodologies, all have Canberra house prices (on average) rising by more than 10 percent in the past 12 months.
The uplift in price growth in the national capital is quite recent. Unlike Sydney three hours up the highway, Canberra has not been pumping for the past 3-4 years. It went through a period of malaise when the Federal Government downsized the public service and the market was also impacted by an oversupply of apartments.
Canberra has got those negative symptoms out of its system and appears to be growing again. Certainly that aligns with my analysis of sales activity, which have been elevated in the past two years.
But what really stands out for me is the uplift in activity and prices in New South Wales locations close to Canberra.
The proximity of Queanbeyan (now part of the newly-formed Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council area) to the nation’s capital is certainly helping local property markets.
The region has strong population growth, unemployment is low and new housing estates are under construction – helped by Queanbeyan’s affordability relative to Canberra, with median prices for both houses and units generally below those in the national capital.
Canberra prices are kept artificially high by the tight control of land releases and general dwelling supply by the ACT Government. But Queanbeyan, while closer to central Canberra than many ACT suburbs, is in NSW and has cheaper prices. Many of its suburbs have median house prices in the $400,000s while Queanbeyan, Queanbeyan East and Crestwood all have median unit prices in the $200,000s – something that’s difficult to find within the ACT.
Property sales activity in Queanbeyan increased in 2015 and 2016, leading it to become a standout region for growth, as identified in the Autumn edition of the Price Predictor Index published by Hotspotting.
Good rental yields are another attraction, with several suburbs having median yields around 5 percent for houses and 6 percent for units.
Goulburn, about 80km from Canberra, also benefits from being close to the national capital and having much cheaper house prices. It’s a growth market, partly because of local events, partly its proximity to Canberra and partly a Ripple Effect from Sydney’s growth market.
Sales activity has been rising steadily in the past 18 months and this has generated solid growth in Goulburn’s median house price (up 7% to about $350,000 in the past 12 months).
Goulburn (the LGA’s population is around 30,000) has long been a solid regional centre servicing the Southern Tablelands area of NSW near the ACT border.
Long-term, it will benefit from its location in the growth corridor linking Canberra with Sydney – with growing numbers living in affordable Goulburn and working in Canberra.
It would also be a key beneficiary of plans for high-speed rail links between Canberra and Sydney, if that grand plan ever happens.
Goulburn has more diversity to its economy than your standard regional centre, with a big wind farm industry, the presence of the NSW Police College and also the Goulburn Correctional Centre.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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Canberra's strong price growth extends to neighbouring cities: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Dwelling value growth was flat in Sydney over April with Melbourne values up 0.5 percent over the month according to CoreLogic's Hedonic Home Value Index for April
Tim Lawless, head of CoreLogic research said the moderation in growth was due largely to a slightly negative April result in Australia’s largest capital city housing market, Sydney, where dwelling values were broadly flat (rounded up from - 0.04 percent) over the month. 
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"The result for Melbourne was also lower than previous months of 2017, with dwelling values up 0.5 percent over the month,” he said.
"Dwelling values increased by 0.1 percent across the combined capital cities in April, with housing market conditions slowing in both Sydney and Melbourne.
"The softer results across Australia’s two largest capital cities comes after dramatic capital gains were recorded over the second half of 2016 and the first three months of 2017.
"Between July 2016 and the end of March 2017, Sydney dwelling values surged 11.3 percent, whilst Melbourne values increased slightly more at 12.6 percent in the same period.
"The April results mark the weakest monthly change in dwelling values across the Sydney market since December 2015, when CoreLogic reported a 1.2 percent fall in Sydney dwelling values; the soft reading comes after dwelling values have risen by 75.1 percent over the past five years, an annual rate of growth of 15 percent over this period.
"Most other capital cities also recorded softer growth conditions in April than for the first three months of 2017.
The trends generally remain positive, with quarterly growth of 2.9 percent across the combined capitals index.
"Based on the rolling quarterly change in dwelling values, the strongest housing market is currently in Hobart, where home values have risen 5.1 percent over the past three months.
"Hobart’s housing market has staged a solid improvement over the past two years and is now the third best performing capital city on an annual basis, with dwelling values moving almost 14 percent higher over the past twelve months alone.
“We need to be cautious in calling a peak in the market after only one month of soft results.
“April, in particular, coincides with seasonal factors including Easter, school holidays and ANZAC day long weekend.
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"The softer results should also be viewed against a backdrop of an ever evolving regulatory landscape s which is firmly aimed at slowing investment and interest-only mortgage lending. Testament to this is mortgage rates which have been edging higher, particularly for investors and interest-only loans, as well as rental yields which have been hovering around record lows. The higher cost of debt, as well as stricter lending and servicing criteria, has likely dented investment demand over recent months.” 
“In a city like Sydney, where more than 50 percent of new mortgage demand has been from investors, a tighter lending environment for investment purposes has the potential to impact housing demand more than other cities."
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