<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.</p>

<p>The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.</p>

<p>The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]</p>

<p>Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.</p>

<p>Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.</p>

<p>Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]</p>

<p>Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.</p>

<p>“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.</p>

<p>“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”</p>

<p>“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.”<br />
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]</p>

<p>The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.</p>

<p>Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.</p>

<p>The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.</p>

<p>The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]</p>

<p>Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”</p>

<p>A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.</p>

<p>That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.</p>

<p>The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]</p>

<p>According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.</p>

<p>Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.</p>

<p>The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.</p>

<p>The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.</p>

<p>That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.</p>

<p>The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]</p>

<p>The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.</p>

<p>“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”</p>

<p>The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]</p>


Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.</p>

<p>The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.</p>

<p>Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]</p>

<p>Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.</p>

<p>Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.</p>

<p>“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.</p>

<p>He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.</p>

<p>“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.</p>

<p>“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]</p>

<p>Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.</p>

<p>Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.</p>

<p>Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.</p>

<p>Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.</p>

<p>The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]</p>

<p>Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.</p>

<p>Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.</p>

<p>Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]</p>


NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

<p>Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.</p>

<p>The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.</p>

<p>The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="529"><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" /></p>

<p data-end="1040" data-start="794">According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.</p>

<p>The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.</p>

<p>Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.</p>

<p>“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.</p>

<p>The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.</p>

<p>The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" /></p>

<p>The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”</p>

<p>The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.</p>

<p>Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" /></p>

<p>St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.</p>

<p>Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.</p>

<p>The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.</p>

<p>More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.</p>


First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Population Growth

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<p>NSW’s population, currently sitting at 8,048,000 is tipped to rise to 8.63 million by 2022.</p>
<p>At the same time the Australian population will rise, according to the budget estimates, from 25.1 million to 26.9 million.</p>
<p>But NSW’s lead over Victoria will narrow from being some 1.5 million more residents to around 1.44 million more.</p>
<p>NSW is set to continue receiving high overseas migration settlement, but see a continued decline every year with residents moving interstate.</p>
<p>The interstate exodus from NSW is tipped to see a 16,000 annual decline for the next four years.</p>
<p>Queensland is the biggest beneficiary with 18,400 new arrivals from other states, with Victoria expected to gain 16,800 annually.</p>
<p>WA and SA are also set to lose resident, by 12,000 and 6,500 annually respectively.</p>
<p>The estimates of migration, interstate and overseas, are based on a weighted average of the past three years, the federal budget papers noted.</p>
<p>The total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.781 babies per woman in 2018, and is assumed to rise to 1.900 babies by 2021.</p>
<p>The budget confirmed the Government will reduce the level of overseas migration from 190,000 to 160,000 places for four years from 2019-20.</p>
<p>For the 2019-20 migration program, there will be 108,682 places in the skill stream, 47,732 places in the family stream, with a combined 3,586 places for child and special eligibility streams.</p>
<p>Net overseas migration is tipped to peak this year at 271,700.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Population gap to narrow between NSW and Victoria

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Opposition Leader Matthew Guy recently announced a Liberal National Coalition government would stop </span>‘urban claustrophobia’ if successful in November’s State Election.</p>
<p>The pledge comes after Premier Daniel Andrews announced the Labor government would build a massive suburban rail loop if re-elected.</p>
<p>Both election announcements are focused on population growth management, which is shaping up to be the hottest election issue across Victoria. </p>
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<p>Melbourne’s population crossed the 5 million mark in August; an incredible feat given it took over 17 decades to grow to 4 million. Now in less than one decade, we've gained an extra 1 million people. Victoria’s next government clearly has a tough task in delivering the housing and infrastructure we so desperately need right now, while also planning for the future.</p>
<p><span>There are divergent views on population growth, which is understandable considering some of our current growing pains. The facts tell us popul</span><span>ation growth is incredibly important to Victoria’s strong economy </span><span>and job creation. But the challenges are real, and our communities are feeling the strain in their everyday lives. </span></p>
<p><span>We are at a </span><span>fork in the road in our state’s history </span><span>and with the Victorian State Election just two months away, the party in government after November 24, will have the important task of turning the realities of population growth into our advantage. </span></p>
<p><span>We heard last week that a Guy Government would establish a Population Commission, tasked with implementing </span><span>population restrictions on suburbs where infrastructure and services aren’t keeping up with growth. </span><span>The Commission would limit where migrants can settle, press pause on housing development in certain areas, and incentivise people to settle in regional Victoria rather than in Melbourne. </span></p>
<p><span>There is merit to the model of a Population Commission; we are certainly in need of a strategy to deliver the homes, services, infrastructure and amenities required to accommodate the growing population. But putting a cap on growth, even at a local level, is not the right answer. </span></p>
<p><span>Our growing pains are not the result of population growing too fast; but rather infrastructure delivery happening too slowly. The Coaliti</span><span>on’s </span><span>focus must shift from curbing population growth to delivering infrastructure more efficiently, so more people can have a choice on how and where they live and work. </span></p>
<p><span>If the Coalition’s proposal to cap growth is implemented, there is </span><span>a real danger councils and state government will stall infrastructure provision simply to avoid accommodating new residents. </span><span>If this happens, the Coalition’s policy </span><span>would single handedly give rise to unnecessary development restrictions that will only serve to drive up house prices, and lock up the established areas for only the privileged to occupy. T</span><span>hat shouldn’t sit well with any of us. </span></p>
<p><span>NSW under Bob Carr closed the doors to population growth and sent a clear message to business and the rest of the country that the city was shut. There were major economic consequences for that state for the better part of a decade. Sydney is now our most unaffordable housing market. Surely there are some lessons we can take from history.</span></p>
<p>On the other side of politics, the Andrews Labor Government has pledged to build a Suburban Rail Loop if re- elected in November. Cited as the biggest public transport project in Australian history, the rail loop looks to be the current government’s key population management delivery strategy. It’s a great initiative in principle, and it certainly offers a vision and long-term thinking about how Melbournians will get around our city.</p>
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<p><span>But will it come soon enough, and be effective enough to solve our daily growing pains? Have we traded election cycle advantages, hero infrastructure projects and headline grabbing announcements for our ability to deliver basic, essential infrastructure? </span></p>
<p><span>We need to build more homes in the outer suburbs, faster than ever before, but without the right infrastructure to support these new and growing communities, people are not going to want to live there and nor should they have to. The Suburban Rail Loop </span><span>– </span><span>grandiose in scale </span><span>– will be a game changer. But it’s an ambitious long</span><span>-term plan expected to take until 2050 to complete. In the meantime, we need a coordinated strategy to deliver the missing schools, roundabouts, road upgrades, bridges, community centres, transport options and services required now and as we continue to grow. A big-ticket item </span><span>delivered in 30 years won’t be enough in silos. </span></p>
<p><span>P</span><span>opulation growth is our reality and it’s radically changing what Victorians want and need. </span><span>It presents both challenges and opportunities, and requires strong leadership to ensure we turn it into our advantage. </span></p>
<p><span>It’s critically important </span><span>that we have a state government that will deliver a mix of measures to offer immediate relief to the very real growing pains our communities are experiencing, while also keeping their eye firmly focused on the long-game. We need leaders who will take our communities on a journey and deliver a strategy that embraces the benefits of population growth, while dealing with potential issues before they become big problems. We need balanced planning policies that enable, rather than discourage, all parts of Melbourne and Victoria to accommodate our population. </span></p>
<p><span>Ultimately, we need a government that will make responsible, educated and long-term decisions that will help all our new and existing residents enjoy all that Victoria has to offer.</span></p>
<p><span>Danni Addison is the Victorian CEO of the Urban Development Institute of Australia.</span></p>
</div>
</div>
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Population growth is our reality; it’s time we turn it into our advantage

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<p> </p>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Outer-suburban dwellers in our large capital cities are the modern version of Menzies’ “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/linking-infrastructure-with-migration-the-solution-to-congestion/news-story/ab87493b400864976031666711a905e4" target="_blank">forgotten people</a>”, if the government is to be believed. The image of a low-income commuter forced to spend over an hour driving to the CBD is all too common, as the media reach for a way to make sense of population growth.</p>
<p>But any policy to fix congestion by <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/cities-fix-pms-plan-to-send-migrants-to-regions-for-five-years/news-story/c8573e68a1438295818d5aab9de5471b" target="_blank">making new migrants disperse to the regions</a>, where there’s plenty of space, is wrongheaded. In fact, a new <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/remarkably-adaptive/" target="_blank">Grattan Institute report</a> finds Australian cities’ adaptation to population growth has been nothing short of remarkable.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt Australia has had <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-population-the-highest-growing-in-the-world-96523" target="_blank">rapid population growth in recent years</a>. Sydney and Melbourne’s populations grew in the five years to 2016 at rates among the highest in the developed world, by 1.9% and 2.3% a year. Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Darwin also grew strongly.</p>
<p>But, contrary to frequent media reports, the population boom has had little impact on commuters. The distances that people are commuting barely increased over the five years. And there has been little change in commute times.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238254/original/file-20180927-48650-1kxtq6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238254/original/file-20180927-48650-1kxtq6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <br><span class="caption">Note: Distance is as the crow flies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Grattan analysis of ABS Census ABS (2016a)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<p>What’s more, commute distances and times in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane are very similar, even though Melbourne and Sydney have twice the population of Brisbane. There’s also not much difference in commutes between Perth and Canberra – which is less than a quarter Perth’s size.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <br><span class="caption">Notes: Working-age respondents to the Hilda Survey report commuting times for a typical week. These are converted here to times for an individual trip. BITRE (2016) finds that the travel times HILDA respondents report closely match other measures of travel times, further supported by Grattan analysis of Transport for Victoria (2018).</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Grattan analysis of HILDA (2016)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<h2>The spread of jobs helps explain why</h2>
<p>The spread of jobs within cities partly explains the benign impact of population growth on commutes. It’s a misconception that most jobs are centred in CBDs, which become harder to get to as cities grow. In reality, fewer than two in ten people work in CBDs, whereas three in ten work in a suburb closer to home.</p>
<p>The importance of suburban employment centres is similarly overblown. Parramatta, for instance, was the location of just 2.3% of Sydney’s jobs in 2016, and this proportion had not changed in five years. Similarly, Clayton, home of the Monash University and Medical Centre, had just 1.7% of Melbourne’s jobs in both 2011 and 2016.</p>
<p>In Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, three-quarters of jobs are dispersed all over the city, in shops, offices, schools, clinics and construction sites.</p>
<p>People adapt to growing cities in a variety of ways. Some care most about living a short commute from work; others place a high value on being close to public transport; still others care about a bigger or nicer home, or the reputation of the local school. Everyone makes choices that reflect what they care about most.</p>
<p>This is not to suggest that population growth has left everybody better off. Some people elect not to take a new job that’s too far from home; sometimes people decide against venturing out so as to avoid peak-hour traffic; and some either pay higher rent or cannot afford to live in as nice a place as they used to or could once have afforded. And there is overcrowding on public transport, and commuting times can be unreliable.</p>
<p>But people are not hapless victims of population growth, dependent for their well-being on governments building the next freeway or rail extension. While new infrastructure is needed when cities grow substantially, Australia’s cities have coped even though major transport projects such as WestConnex, Melbourne Metro and Cross River Rail have not yet been completed. We should be sceptical of “congestion-busting” election pledges: building new infrastructure is far from the only way to cope with population growth.</p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">So how should governments respond?</span></p>
<p>Governments should focus on facilitating the natural adaptations that people make. They should limit zoning and planning barriers to people and firms locating where they want to be. They should follow the ACT’s lead in phasing out stamp duty, which effectively locks people into staying put when they might otherwise move house.</p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne should introduce <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027" target="_blank">congestion charges</a>, to encourage drivers who don’t really need to travel at peak times to stay off the most congested roads. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206" target="_blank">less politicised infrastructure choices</a> could mean the infrastructure we get is the infrastructure we actually need.</p>
<p>With these changes, the benefits that draw people to live and work close together can outweigh the crowding and congestion that trigger demands to shut out new people.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103992/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marion-terrill-169480" target="_blank">Marion Terrill</a>, Transport Program Director, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-fast-growing-cities-and-their-people-are-proving-to-be-remarkably-adaptable-103992" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Our fast-growing cities and their people are proving to be remarkably adaptable

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lots of discussion about immigration is to be expected in the lead up to the Federal election, and as the Australian population clock approaches 25 million in the coming days. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's interesting to note that the locations where immigrants have mostly been moving to are also by far and away the strongest labour markets in the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The construction boom in Melbourne is all set to push unemployment in Victoria down to below 5 per cent too, joining New South Wales which is already at 4.7 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, the construction pipeline in Victoria is so immense that I believe Melbourne will be the strongest economy in the country for years to come. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oVsdCu-nhYI/W1QBlspHyhI/AAAAAAAArKk/Sej6RxstRIkqFxRjET2Vo6ITLeZK8hH2wCLcBGAs/s640/Sydney.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1375"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Another benefit to these cities is that the immigrants have mainly be younger than the median age, with visa requirements tilted towards those under the age of 30. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's easy to be anti-immigration and blame migrants for traffic congestion and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But Sydney and Melbourne also have dynamic economies unlike much of the rest of the country right now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cause or effect? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But having lived in cities where the population is growing and a city/region where the population ebbed away for year after year, I know which dynamic is preferable...and it ain't the latter!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Incidentally, the younger age of migrants is a positive input for housing market demand in Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Census confirmed a tremendous decade-long surge in the cohort typically representing the first homebuyer age, which will in time stoke demand for inner-suburban apartments in these cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ljttoCR_8eQ/W1aXzCvB9FI/AAAAAAAArL8/dw8Edo9mjAEwpSQ5kX6iVuwZCIu_pGHfgCLcBGAs/s640/year%2Bof%2Bage.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1372"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thanks to immigration Greater Sydney and Melbourne have a much younger median age at 36 than cities such as Adelaide or Hobart at 39. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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Migrants, jobs and housing: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>An intriguing set of building activity figures as ever for the March 2018 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most interesting point of note was how thousands of building approvals in the Victorian pipeline were kicked off as dwelling starts in the first three months of the calendar year (recall how Melbourne saw nearly 10,000 townhouses and apartments approved in only a two-month period in October and November last year).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales, on the other hand, there are more houses and apartments approved but not yet commenced than ever before, as developers grapple with tighter financing and languishing apartment pre-sales. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IBA7-WMHTY8/W0V1rvQfoZI/AAAAAAAArAE/uj3Kf3OMkg82lMDyY8usAtL_kner9f9igCEwYBhgL/s640/BA3.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="1389"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Following on from the above, there was a near-explosion in the number of quarterly dwelling commencements in Victoria, to a seasonally adjusted 22,150, well over double the equivalent figure from a decade earlier.<br><br>Melbourne's population growth has been tracking at record highs, and demand for housing is high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This alone was significant enough to send the national trend for dwelling commencements northwards. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JmNI8sM0-qc/W0V1s90dimI/AAAAAAAArAI/9cEGyLHhx3ApESqUvmIQ9VNP2Ny2qaXaACEwYBhgL/s640/BA5.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1310"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In Queensland more houses are being commenced in response to strong demand from interstate migrants, but the number of attached dwelling starts continues to moderate as the Brisbane apartment market rebalances. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BIMygTTR1rg/W0V1sDgFn7I/AAAAAAAArAI/kBXZooy2BQQxTdc9h7P2ikm31-d-5uF1ACEwYBhgL/s640/BA4.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1350"></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Pipeline is enormous</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of residential dwellings units under construction also increased as a result of the Melbourne building boom to more than 224,000, a record high.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-93XBQZlcR8Q/W0V1rWumBwI/AAAAAAAAq_k/WE_s0iLsrJM_prad2slt7pILMs7kag7NACLcBGAs/s640/BA1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1336"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>You can also see the leap in Victorian attached dwellings under construction to a record level, while Sydney completions are now finally raining in, which should result in a spike in vacancy rates in the harbour city as the year rolls on. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iLo-uVMONQA/W0V1rqS_n-I/AAAAAAAAq_o/UBeacRrqL74NiZEC1WXR7wIxlJL6UMiAwCLcBGAs/s640/BA2.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1351"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Both the value of building work to be done ($71.4 billion) and total building work in the pipeline ($95.8 billion) are at all-time highs in current prices terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big question mark is how many of the buyers of off-the-plan apartments will be unable to settle, especially if more valuations at settlement start to come in at under the contract price. </div>
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Melbourne's population growth at record highs makes for strong demand for housing: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 387,969 people over the year to December 2017 to 24,770,709 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate fell from an upwardly-revised 1.67 per cent (previous 1.60 per cent) to 1.59 per cent - still near the fastest population growth in 3 years.</p>
<div class="x_WordSection1">
<p class="x_Bullets">The ACT’s annual population growth rate rose from 2.08 per cent in the September 2017 to 2.15 per cent in the December quarter – the strongest growth rate in over 5 years.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/21/can-growth.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/21/can-growth.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Employment rose by 57,900 in the three months to May after a gain of 60,600 in the previous three months. Over the past 12 months, 307,600 people have found jobs, down from 415,900 in the 12 months to February – near the largest annual increase on record. A record 12.54 million Aussies are employed.</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">Over the quarter, employment rose most in Public Administration and Safety (up 88,900), Manufacturing (up 41,100), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 29,100) and Accommodation and Food Services (up 22,700).</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">Healthcare and Social Assistance remains Australia’s leading employer, employing 1.7 million people or 13.3 per cent of all jobs. Retail Trade is in second place with 1.3 million employees.</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/22/employers.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/22/employers.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">In the year to May, 57.5 per cent of those aged 60-64 years and 13.9 per cent of those aged 65 years and over were in the job market – both record highs.</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">In the year to May, the average weekly actual hours worked per person employed was just 31.8 hours – a record low.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1"><em>The demographic data on jobs provides insights on the job market, wages and prices, and ultimately on interest rates. The data on employment by industry gives insights into which industries are growing the fastest as well as insights on the performance of the broader economy.</em></p>
</div>
<div class="x_WordSection2">
<h1><span>What does it all mean?</span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets">The Reserve Bank recently said that immigration supports Australia’s ageing population. Net immigration slowed during the December quarter. In fact it was the slowest annual growth rate in 2½ years. Migration did account for 62 per cent of total population growth.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Canberra is cool. Long derided by other Aussies, population growth is the strongest in five years in the national capital. And its babies, not overseas or interstate migrants are driving population growth. According to the ACT government, natural increase will account for 62 per cent of the territory’s population growth by 2020.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Clearly Canberra is great for families, and its superior pay packets is attractive for young professionals. According to the Bureau of Statistics,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Aussie public sector wages increased by 2.3 per cent over the year to March.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And during the quarter to May,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Public Administration and Safety jobs growth was the strongest across all occupations.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">And there is no stopping Aussie Baby Boomers. There are more people aged between 60 and 64 years that are currently working than those not working. Senior Aussies are continuing to work due to improved health, technology, more jobs in the services sector, a need to boost superannuation savings and a rise in flexible work options. Older worker participation is expected to increase further because of a gradual rise in the retirement age from 65½ currently to 67 by 2023.</p>
<h1><span>What do the figures show?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Population Statistics</span></strong></p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Australia’s population expanded</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>by 387,969 people over the year to December 2017 to 24,770,709 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate fell from an upwardly-revised 1.67 per cent (previous 1.60 per cent) to 1.59 per cent - still near the fastest population growth in 3 years.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Over the past year population growth was strongest<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></strong>in Victoria (2.30 per cent), followed by the ACT (2.15 per cent), Queensland (1.67 per cent), NSW (1.50 per cent), Tasmania (0.94 per cent), Western Australia (0.83 per cent), South Australia (0.62 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.23 per cent).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">The ACT’s population growth rate at 2.15 per cent is the highest since September 2012.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Australia’s population grew by 68,731 people over the December quarter, after growing by an upwardly-revised 104,450 people (previous 103,918 people) in the September quarter.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>A total of 240,400 people migrated to Australia over year to December</strong>, up from an upwardly-revised 258,000 (previous 250,200 people) in the year to September. Migration growth is down from the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Net migration rose</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>by 35,900 in the December quarter, but the change in annual migration in 2017 fell by 3,600 people, the slowest growth rate in 2½ years.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">There were<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>308,500 babies born</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>in the past year – lower than the record growth of 312,200 babies born in the year to March 2013 – but up by 4,300 births from the year to December 2016.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">There were<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>160,900 deaths</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>in the past year, up by 3,100 deaths from the year to December 2016.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Natural increase</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>for the year ended 31 December 2017 was 147,500 people, up by 0.9 per cent or 1,300 people from the year to December 2016.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Industry Employment</span></strong></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Employment rose by 57,900 in the three months to May after a gain of 60,600 in the previous three months.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Over the past 12 months, 307,600 people have found jobs, down from 415,900 in the 12 months to February – near the largest annual increase on record. A record 12.54 million Aussies are employed. </p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Over the quarter, employment rose most in<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Public Administration and Safety (up 88,900), Manufacturing (up 41,100), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 29,100) and Accommodation and Food Services (up 22,700).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">In the quarter, the number of jobs fell by the most in Transport, Postal and Warehousing (down 29,300), Retail Trade (down 29,100), Education and Training (down 28,600),<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Health Care and Social Assistance (down 26,000) and<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Construction (down 20,000). <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Over the year to May, 16 out of 19 sectors added jobs. The strongest gains were in Manufacturing (up 63,100),<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 52,700),Construction (up 47,100) and Health Care and Social Assistance (up 39,200).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Three sectors shed jobs over the past year including Transport, Postal and Warehousing (down 30,000), Other Services (down 28,900) and Retail Trade (down 400).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Health Care and Social Assistance remains the biggest employer with 1.7 million employees (13.3 per cent of the total) followed by Retail Trade (1.3 million jobs or 10.2 per cent), Construction (1.2 million or 9.4 per cent) and Education and Training (1.0 million or 8.0 per cent).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Detailed Employment</span></strong></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">In the year to May, 57.5 per cent of those aged 60-64 years and 13.9 per cent of those aged 65 years and over were in the job market – both record highs.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">At the same time that the participation of seniors are reaching new highs, younger Aussies are looking for work. But participation in the workforce of those between 15-19 years fell to 6-month lows of 54.7 per cent (year to May 2018). Workforce participation of those 20-24 years rose to 78.8 per cent in May, up from 78.6 per cent in April.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">A greater proportion of young married women are also in work. In the year to May, an average of 75.6 per cent of married women aged 25-34 years were in the workforce – a record high.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">In the year to May, the average weekly actual hours worked per person employed was just 31.8 hours – a record low. On average, people are working 2 hours a week less than they were a decade ago.</p>
<h1><span>Why is the data important?</span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Demographic Statistics</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>detailed labour market figures</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment &amp; unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy.</p>
<h1><span>What are the implications?</span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets">The job market should continue to improve over the coming year. Business conditions are at near-decade highs and indicators of job vacancies and advertisements are at the highest levels for around six years.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">There is still spare capacity but it is slowly being used. Wages should gradually lift over the year amid emerging skills shortages in some industries. Improved job security and rising sharemarkets (the ASX200 is at decade-high levels) should support consumer spending, despite elevated household debt and falling home prices in some cities.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Australia’s population is still growing, albeit down from recent breakneck rates. Rising numbers of Aussies adds to demand for a raft of businesses across a range of industry sectors.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The lift in the growth of the population – and the physical population numbers – lift demand for roads, schools and hospitals, thus boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies. Health, education and construction workers are also in high demand.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Our way of life is changing and governments will need to meet the challenges of a larger population through superior urban planning and world class infrastructure, especially public transport in Australia’s growing capital cities.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">CommSec expects official interest rates to remain unchanged until early next year.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.</p>
</div>
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Canberra's population growth at five year high: CommSec

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Melbourne has been attracting most of the population growth headlines, justifiably, but many of the outstanding growth areas of Australia are regional centres.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The population numbers confirm my view that there’s too much emphasis on capital cities and not enough on regional areas.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We have numerous regional centres which are larger than some of our state and territory capital cities.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Gold Coast-Tweed Heads and Newcastle-Maitland urban areas are both larger than the national capital, Canberra.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Central Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Wollongong and Geelong are all significantly bigger than Hobart; while Townsville, Cairns and Toowoomba are all larger cities than Darwin.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A recent analysis of the 50 largest urban areas of Australia by “id the population experts” shows which cities grew the most last year and over the past five years. I’d like to focus in particular on the top 20 urban areas.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In terms of growth in 2017, Geelong is the national growth star with a 2.7% increase, following by nearby Melbourne on 2.6%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Next come the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast, which both grew 2.5%. Brisbane grew 2%, so the unavoidable conclusion is that Australia has two major centres of exceptional population growth – the Melbourne-Geelong region and South-East Queensland.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In terms of five-year growth, the top six growth centres are Melbourne (13.5%), the Sunshine Coast (12.7%), Geelong (12.3%), the Gold Coast (11.4%), Darwin (10.2%) and Sydney (10.1%).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">All of those urban centres, apart from Darwin (which has fallen into a bit of slump in recent years), had significant growth in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Other locations to record strong growth in both 2017 and the past five years include Ballarat (the 18</span><span class="s2"><sup>th</sup></span><span class="s1"> largest urban area in Australia) and Bendigo (the 19</span><span class="s2"><sup>th</sup></span><span class="s1"> largest).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Looking at centres in the 50 largest urban areas but not in the top 20, the two standout growth areas are Melton and Warragul-Drouin.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Melton, out in the far west of the Melbourne metropolitan area, grew 5.3% in 2017 and 26.6% in the past five years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Warragul-Drouin, in the Gippsland region east of Melbourne, increased 3.4% in 2017 and 16.7% in the past five years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Other ABS information shows that many of these regional areas are gaining population from people moving from nearby capital cities. The greatest beneficiary of this trend last year was the Gold Coast, followed by the Sunshine Coast.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Others to gain from refugees from the city include regional areas close to Melbourne, including Latrobe-Gippsland, Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So there’s an undeniable pattern to the population growth achievers of Australia. Victoria is a stand-out, both Melbourne as the leading capital city and numerous regional centres which are surging ahead, including Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Warragul-Drouin.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Beyond Victoria, it’s all about South-East Queensland, with Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast all achieving consistently high growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If we change the focus and concentrate on Local Government Areas rather than continuous urban areas, there’s a slightly different focus, although Melbourne remains the star.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In terms of percentage population growth in 2017, the top 10 LGAs in Australia, according to “id the population experts”, include six municipalities in the Melbourne region, two in Sydney and two in Perth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">From this perspective, the leading population growth LGA last year was Camden in the far south-west of Sydney, which there is ample land for new housing development. The Camden LGA grew 8.4% in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the Perth region, the LGAs of Serpentine-Jarrahdale (up 6.5%) and Kwinana (up 4.6%) ranked No.3 and No.7 among the nation’s municipalities for population growth rates in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Too much emphasis on capital city population growth and not on regional: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The ABS reported that Sydney's population increased by more than +100,000 in FY2017 for the first time ever, in doing so rising to an estimated 5.1 million.</p>
<p>More than 70% of Australia's population growth was accounted for by Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQupA_3mA1E/Wt62xR9kgCI/AAAAAAAApk0/KhmUFtsU3V0CfYio-r_eh_39R-jtWuhyQCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQupA_3mA1E/Wt62xR9kgCI/AAAAAAAApk0/KhmUFtsU3V0CfYio-r_eh_39R-jtWuhyQCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1466"></a></p>
<p>Sydney's population growth climbed dramatically to +101,600 (+2%), while Melbourne remained extremely strong at +125,400 (+2.7%).</p>
<p>Melbourne's population has increased by well over ¼ million in only two financial years to hit 4.9 million. </p>
<p>Population growth in Brisbane also picked up strongly to +48,000 or +2%, driven partly by interstate migration. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DXJ2awfmAbU/Wt62xfVHlfI/AAAAAAAApk4/BJCtef8snk8YNfg72FzYspUIhts028TJgCLcBGAs/s1600/B2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DXJ2awfmAbU/Wt62xfVHlfI/AAAAAAAApk4/BJCtef8snk8YNfg72FzYspUIhts028TJgCLcBGAs/s640/B2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1417"></a></p>
<p>Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Geelong recorded some fair population growth in absolute terms, and the ACT also increased by an estimated +6,833 persons. </p>
<p>But generally speaking population growth was considerably weaker around regional Australia.</p>
<p>Darwin (+696), Adelaide (+9,648), and Perth (+21,094) also recorded population growth rates of 1% or less. </p>
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Sydney's population growth up 2%: Pete Wargent

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<div>Figures out recently showed Australian employment growth <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">tracking at all-time record levels</a>, with a stunning +420,700 year-on-year increase in employment, including an eye-watering +166,200 increase in New South Wales.<br><br>I took a look through those numbers in a bit more detail, including at the state level, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">here</a>.<br><br>Population growth tends to be pro-cyclical, and over the year to September 2017 the annual growth in Australia's estimated resident population picked up to +395,600, for the quickest annual increase since 2013 in absolute terms, if not in percentage terms.<br><br>The estimated rate of population increase through net overseas migration is a bit faster than might be implied by the issuance of permanent residency visas, with the growth international students accounting for some of the difference.<br><br>I'll take a look below through where and why that's happened in 4 short parts.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1: By natural causes...</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>As the population grows and ages the number of deaths each year tends to climb steadily, now up to +161,100 over the year to September 2017.<br><br>The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture.<br><br>Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades.<br><br>I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow.<br><br>I've yet to get divorced.<br><br>You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">much</span></strong> longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!).<br><br>Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500.<br><br>Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase. </div>
<div class="separator">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s1600/C1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1336"></a> </div>
<div>It's hard to predict what will happen here.<br><br>Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options.<br><br>Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/demographic-tsunami" target="_blank">corresponding explosion</a> in the 25-34 year old cohort.<br><br>The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all.<br><br>Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s1600/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s640/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2: Immigration nation</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Australia's permanent migrant intake is capped at around 200,000 per annum, but the overall pace of net overseas migration was faster than this, partly accounted for by international students.<br><br>Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere.<br><br>Incidentally, I wrote in 2015 how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though).<br><br>Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-34wqqS42Kv8/WrMt_uNCZRI/AAAAAAAApDE/S7IKg-aAloEvqn9YiWNsX7i3Mlzr4NWxACLcBGAs/s1600/C2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-34wqqS42Kv8/WrMt_uNCZRI/AAAAAAAApDE/S7IKg-aAloEvqn9YiWNsX7i3Mlzr4NWxACLcBGAs/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1362"></a></div>
<p> The next slide tells its own story: immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers. </p>
<div> </div>
<div>Concerningly for the regional centres of Australia, the <em>Characteristics of Recent Migrants</em> survey showed that not only do migrants uniformly head to the capital cities, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">they also now overwhelmingly remain there</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I know a bit about this, because I'm one of the said migrants, although like many I've made a couple of internal capital city moves since my first arrival in Australia in the 1990s. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the mining boom years through until 2012 immigrants also flocked to the resources states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I recall Simon Reeve's BBC documentaries revealing to stunned Britons that expat truck drivers in Western Australia were earning salaries that most working class Poms could only dream of, and to rub further salt into their wounds the truckies were living in houses with swimming pools you could actually swim in! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although Queensland has experienced something of a rebound, the drawcard for the resources states is not nearly as strong as it used to be, and South Australia has at least half a foot in that camp too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LnrfG9IeByk/WrMt_3Xt3iI/AAAAAAAApDI/G_pEbNLsM7g31kEbUmB4R8Emq2NOQp51QCLcBGAs/s1600/C3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LnrfG9IeByk/WrMt_3Xt3iI/AAAAAAAApDI/G_pEbNLsM7g31kEbUmB4R8Emq2NOQp51QCLcBGAs/s640/C3.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1378"></a></div>
<div>
<br>Going forward Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland are projected to capture the bulk of population growth.<br><br>Perth will now have direct flights to Europe in its favour, but my analysis here previously has shown that in the future almost all of the net growth in the overseas born population will be driven by migrants of Asian origin.<br><br>European-born Baby Boomers are set to drop off the perch and more Asian migrants and international students from China and India are dominating the intake (with many expected to become permanent residents later).<br><br>This in turn has a strong impact on future demographic pull-factors, including for family visas and future international students.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3: Upping sticks</span></strong><br><br>One of the main trends to watch for me at the moment is internal movements as the two most populous capital cities adjust to the latest influx.<br><br>Sydney in particular can be wearisome at times with the delivery of the CBD &amp; South East Light Rail project still seemingly an age away, although testing on the Randwick section is at least now underway.<br><br>This is scant consolation, I expect, for the commuting residents of Randwick and Coogee currently experiencing near-unfathomable gridlock on their short 6 to 8km journey to the city, only to discover that when then arrive in the city the key CBD thoroughfares are being dug up there too.<br><br>For this reason and others, Queensland has now usurped Victoria as the typical interstate migrant's destination of choice with net inflows hitting a decade high of above +19,000.<br><br>About 12,000 of those came from New South Wales on a net basis, with the ratio of Sydney's house prices to those in Brisbane tracking at the highest level we've ever seen at above 2.2. One way or another that ratio will likely close back below 2. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s1600/C4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s640/C4.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1329"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although not included here because it would simply be a long, flat, green line on this Y-axis scale, Tasmania is now attracting more than a smattering of interstate migrants at +1,000 net over the year to September.<br><br>Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s.<br><br>South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern.<br><br>The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest.<br><br>Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne.<br><br>I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 4: Totting it up</span></strong><br><br>Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015.<br><br>Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.<br><br>I looked <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">in a bit more detail here</a> at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State.<br><br>But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).  </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s1600/C5.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s640/C5.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1379"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A significant <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/melbourne-population-growth-blows-doors" target="_blank">intercensal difference</a> emerged in the 2016 Census and found that the nadir in population growth in Western Australia was considerably lower than previously believed, partly accounting for the dwelling stock overhang, though population growth is now picking up again and the housing market is rebalancing. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s1600/C6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s640/C6.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1351"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Western Australia's annual population growth was up to +22,000 or +0.9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, the Northern Territory experienced a small population decline in the September 2017 quarter, which is fairly unusual, though not unheard of. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've even lived in Darwin myself, which says something about what a cyclical type of place it can be. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Through recent episodes of disruption there have been strong correcting factors such a once-in-150 year resources boom or the Cyclone Tracy rebuild to drive the Territory forward. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s1600/NT.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s640/NT.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1369"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>I'm not sure what comes next for the NT through the Ichthys/INPEX construction phase wash-up, but then again I haven't been to Darwin for a couple of years and it's the sort of place that likes to deliver surprises. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, then, estimated growth in the resident population at +395,600 was comfortably stronger than a year earlier, when it was +370,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's estimated resident population will accordingly pass 25 million within just a few months from today, with Queensland's population projected to surpass 5 million in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the concentration of migrants into the capitals Greater Melbourne is growing at about the fastest pace ever.<br><br>Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>South-east Queensland population growth will pick up as the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">magnetic north</a> does its thing, and in fact it already is as anyone living in inner Brisbane will testify.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1339"></a></div>
</div>
<div>Next I'll get around to posting my mapping population growth versus dwelling completions, which will reveal an interesting outcome or two, especially for Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
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Immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers

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<div>Like many getting-a-bit-long-in-the-tooth Sydneysiders, I've increasingly been having recurring daydreams about selling a place at Bondi or in the inner west and trading it for a mansion at Maroochydore (or sometime it's a mooring at Mooloolaba). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Probably about once a fortnight I have these fantasises, on average, I reckon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then reality bites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wake up and find that Infrastructure Australia (IA) has released another report, which always brings me back to earth and reminds me why I invested in inner-Sydney property in the first place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever, IA's Future Cities report presents a range of scenarios.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a decentralised scenario which incorporates acres of building and hundreds of thousands of new homes in the south-west.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's a centralised scenario where everyone crams like crazy into zones close to the Central Business District (CBD), and to a lesser extent Parramatta.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's the medium-density scenario, which is a realistic mixture of the two, incorporating population growth across the city and on balance the most likely outcome. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The scenarios have one thing in common: none of them envisages a Sydney in 2046 with a population of under 7.34 million. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PdMnCv6NaPM/WpCTHx3DIuI/AAAAAAAAoic/PKX5PyrObPwoXRjOHlN760TUpD5B47wUwCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="240" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1324"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Although people are expected to live all over Sydney, the share of employment will remain heavily skewed to the CBD and city fringe, and to a secondary extent Parramatta. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aHGJZcD-GmI/WpDsUCuGnlI/AAAAAAAAois/t4fM1LPGEfcej_ytStllHGeERXSVygGMgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1010"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>And there's a great deal of consideration of how people will get around with millions of extra people in essentially the same amount of space (as an investor, I've always gone for train links to the City or walking distance from the Sydney CBD). </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nYjMyB370L0/WpDsgFvkAAI/AAAAAAAAoiw/tW2NMZ_pFIYAhZF5E69vfdV5TCOc_-q-ACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="456" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="658"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Nobody can predict the future, but one thing I will hang my hat on is a massive ongoing demand for rentals close to the middle of Sydney. </div>
<p>From the horse's mouth...</p>
<p>Between 2017 and 2046, Australia’s population is projected to increase by 11.8 million people. </p>
<div>That’s equivalent to adding a new city, roughly the size of Canberra, each year for the next 30 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>About 75% of this growth will occur in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth is a central driver of this change. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the next 30 years, Sydney’s population is projected to increase by 2.4 million people, growing to be a city of 7.4 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the same period, Melbourne is projected to grow by 2.7 million people, to be a city of 7.3 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Between now and 2046, Brisbane is projected to grow by 1.6 million people and Perth by 2.2 million people, delivering cities of just under 4 million and 4.3 million, respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This means the Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will become cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While Melbourne and Sydney will become cities comparable to the current size of some of the world’s most significant urban economies, operating more like the Hong Kong, New York and London of today.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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