<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Population Growth

<html><body>
<p>NSW’s population, currently sitting at 8,048,000 is tipped to rise to 8.63 million by 2022.</p>
<p>At the same time the Australian population will rise, according to the budget estimates, from 25.1 million to 26.9 million.</p>
<p>But NSW’s lead over Victoria will narrow from being some 1.5 million more residents to around 1.44 million more.</p>
<p>NSW is set to continue receiving high overseas migration settlement, but see a continued decline every year with residents moving interstate.</p>
<p>The interstate exodus from NSW is tipped to see a 16,000 annual decline for the next four years.</p>
<p>Queensland is the biggest beneficiary with 18,400 new arrivals from other states, with Victoria expected to gain 16,800 annually.</p>
<p>WA and SA are also set to lose resident, by 12,000 and 6,500 annually respectively.</p>
<p>The estimates of migration, interstate and overseas, are based on a weighted average of the past three years, the federal budget papers noted.</p>
<p>The total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.781 babies per woman in 2018, and is assumed to rise to 1.900 babies by 2021.</p>
<p>The budget confirmed the Government will reduce the level of overseas migration from 190,000 to 160,000 places for four years from 2019-20.</p>
<p>For the 2019-20 migration program, there will be 108,682 places in the skill stream, 47,732 places in the family stream, with a combined 3,586 places for child and special eligibility streams.</p>
<p>Net overseas migration is tipped to peak this year at 271,700.</p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Population gap to narrow between NSW and Victoria

<html><body>
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Opposition Leader Matthew Guy recently announced a Liberal National Coalition government would stop </span>‘urban claustrophobia’ if successful in November’s State Election.</p>
<p>The pledge comes after Premier Daniel Andrews announced the Labor government would build a massive suburban rail loop if re-elected.</p>
<p>Both election announcements are focused on population growth management, which is shaping up to be the hottest election issue across Victoria. </p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>Melbourne’s population crossed the 5 million mark in August; an incredible feat given it took over 17 decades to grow to 4 million. Now in less than one decade, we've gained an extra 1 million people. Victoria’s next government clearly has a tough task in delivering the housing and infrastructure we so desperately need right now, while also planning for the future.</p>
<p><span>There are divergent views on population growth, which is understandable considering some of our current growing pains. The facts tell us popul</span><span>ation growth is incredibly important to Victoria’s strong economy </span><span>and job creation. But the challenges are real, and our communities are feeling the strain in their everyday lives. </span></p>
<p><span>We are at a </span><span>fork in the road in our state’s history </span><span>and with the Victorian State Election just two months away, the party in government after November 24, will have the important task of turning the realities of population growth into our advantage. </span></p>
<p><span>We heard last week that a Guy Government would establish a Population Commission, tasked with implementing </span><span>population restrictions on suburbs where infrastructure and services aren’t keeping up with growth. </span><span>The Commission would limit where migrants can settle, press pause on housing development in certain areas, and incentivise people to settle in regional Victoria rather than in Melbourne. </span></p>
<p><span>There is merit to the model of a Population Commission; we are certainly in need of a strategy to deliver the homes, services, infrastructure and amenities required to accommodate the growing population. But putting a cap on growth, even at a local level, is not the right answer. </span></p>
<p><span>Our growing pains are not the result of population growing too fast; but rather infrastructure delivery happening too slowly. The Coaliti</span><span>on’s </span><span>focus must shift from curbing population growth to delivering infrastructure more efficiently, so more people can have a choice on how and where they live and work. </span></p>
<p><span>If the Coalition’s proposal to cap growth is implemented, there is </span><span>a real danger councils and state government will stall infrastructure provision simply to avoid accommodating new residents. </span><span>If this happens, the Coalition’s policy </span><span>would single handedly give rise to unnecessary development restrictions that will only serve to drive up house prices, and lock up the established areas for only the privileged to occupy. T</span><span>hat shouldn’t sit well with any of us. </span></p>
<p><span>NSW under Bob Carr closed the doors to population growth and sent a clear message to business and the rest of the country that the city was shut. There were major economic consequences for that state for the better part of a decade. Sydney is now our most unaffordable housing market. Surely there are some lessons we can take from history.</span></p>
<p>On the other side of politics, the Andrews Labor Government has pledged to build a Suburban Rail Loop if re- elected in November. Cited as the biggest public transport project in Australian history, the rail loop looks to be the current government’s key population management delivery strategy. It’s a great initiative in principle, and it certainly offers a vision and long-term thinking about how Melbournians will get around our city.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>But will it come soon enough, and be effective enough to solve our daily growing pains? Have we traded election cycle advantages, hero infrastructure projects and headline grabbing announcements for our ability to deliver basic, essential infrastructure? </span></p>
<p><span>We need to build more homes in the outer suburbs, faster than ever before, but without the right infrastructure to support these new and growing communities, people are not going to want to live there and nor should they have to. The Suburban Rail Loop </span><span>– </span><span>grandiose in scale </span><span>– will be a game changer. But it’s an ambitious long</span><span>-term plan expected to take until 2050 to complete. In the meantime, we need a coordinated strategy to deliver the missing schools, roundabouts, road upgrades, bridges, community centres, transport options and services required now and as we continue to grow. A big-ticket item </span><span>delivered in 30 years won’t be enough in silos. </span></p>
<p><span>P</span><span>opulation growth is our reality and it’s radically changing what Victorians want and need. </span><span>It presents both challenges and opportunities, and requires strong leadership to ensure we turn it into our advantage. </span></p>
<p><span>It’s critically important </span><span>that we have a state government that will deliver a mix of measures to offer immediate relief to the very real growing pains our communities are experiencing, while also keeping their eye firmly focused on the long-game. We need leaders who will take our communities on a journey and deliver a strategy that embraces the benefits of population growth, while dealing with potential issues before they become big problems. We need balanced planning policies that enable, rather than discourage, all parts of Melbourne and Victoria to accommodate our population. </span></p>
<p><span>Ultimately, we need a government that will make responsible, educated and long-term decisions that will help all our new and existing residents enjoy all that Victoria has to offer.</span></p>
<p><span>Danni Addison is the Victorian CEO of the Urban Development Institute of Australia.</span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Population growth is our reality; it’s time we turn it into our advantage

<html><body>
<p> </p>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Outer-suburban dwellers in our large capital cities are the modern version of Menzies’ “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/linking-infrastructure-with-migration-the-solution-to-congestion/news-story/ab87493b400864976031666711a905e4" target="_blank">forgotten people</a>”, if the government is to be believed. The image of a low-income commuter forced to spend over an hour driving to the CBD is all too common, as the media reach for a way to make sense of population growth.</p>
<p>But any policy to fix congestion by <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/cities-fix-pms-plan-to-send-migrants-to-regions-for-five-years/news-story/c8573e68a1438295818d5aab9de5471b" target="_blank">making new migrants disperse to the regions</a>, where there’s plenty of space, is wrongheaded. In fact, a new <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/remarkably-adaptive/" target="_blank">Grattan Institute report</a> finds Australian cities’ adaptation to population growth has been nothing short of remarkable.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt Australia has had <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-population-the-highest-growing-in-the-world-96523" target="_blank">rapid population growth in recent years</a>. Sydney and Melbourne’s populations grew in the five years to 2016 at rates among the highest in the developed world, by 1.9% and 2.3% a year. Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Darwin also grew strongly.</p>
<p>But, contrary to frequent media reports, the population boom has had little impact on commuters. The distances that people are commuting barely increased over the five years. And there has been little change in commute times.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238254/original/file-20180927-48650-1kxtq6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238254/original/file-20180927-48650-1kxtq6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <br><span class="caption">Note: Distance is as the crow flies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Grattan analysis of ABS Census ABS (2016a)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<p>What’s more, commute distances and times in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane are very similar, even though Melbourne and Sydney have twice the population of Brisbane. There’s also not much difference in commutes between Perth and Canberra – which is less than a quarter Perth’s size.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238255/original/file-20180927-48647-130ec46.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <br><span class="caption">Notes: Working-age respondents to the Hilda Survey report commuting times for a typical week. These are converted here to times for an individual trip. BITRE (2016) finds that the travel times HILDA respondents report closely match other measures of travel times, further supported by Grattan analysis of Transport for Victoria (2018).</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Grattan analysis of HILDA (2016)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<h2>The spread of jobs helps explain why</h2>
<p>The spread of jobs within cities partly explains the benign impact of population growth on commutes. It’s a misconception that most jobs are centred in CBDs, which become harder to get to as cities grow. In reality, fewer than two in ten people work in CBDs, whereas three in ten work in a suburb closer to home.</p>
<p>The importance of suburban employment centres is similarly overblown. Parramatta, for instance, was the location of just 2.3% of Sydney’s jobs in 2016, and this proportion had not changed in five years. Similarly, Clayton, home of the Monash University and Medical Centre, had just 1.7% of Melbourne’s jobs in both 2011 and 2016.</p>
<p>In Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, three-quarters of jobs are dispersed all over the city, in shops, offices, schools, clinics and construction sites.</p>
<p>People adapt to growing cities in a variety of ways. Some care most about living a short commute from work; others place a high value on being close to public transport; still others care about a bigger or nicer home, or the reputation of the local school. Everyone makes choices that reflect what they care about most.</p>
<p>This is not to suggest that population growth has left everybody better off. Some people elect not to take a new job that’s too far from home; sometimes people decide against venturing out so as to avoid peak-hour traffic; and some either pay higher rent or cannot afford to live in as nice a place as they used to or could once have afforded. And there is overcrowding on public transport, and commuting times can be unreliable.</p>
<p>But people are not hapless victims of population growth, dependent for their well-being on governments building the next freeway or rail extension. While new infrastructure is needed when cities grow substantially, Australia’s cities have coped even though major transport projects such as WestConnex, Melbourne Metro and Cross River Rail have not yet been completed. We should be sceptical of “congestion-busting” election pledges: building new infrastructure is far from the only way to cope with population growth.</p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">So how should governments respond?</span></p>
<p>Governments should focus on facilitating the natural adaptations that people make. They should limit zoning and planning barriers to people and firms locating where they want to be. They should follow the ACT’s lead in phasing out stamp duty, which effectively locks people into staying put when they might otherwise move house.</p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne should introduce <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027" target="_blank">congestion charges</a>, to encourage drivers who don’t really need to travel at peak times to stay off the most congested roads. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206" target="_blank">less politicised infrastructure choices</a> could mean the infrastructure we get is the infrastructure we actually need.</p>
<p>With these changes, the benefits that draw people to live and work close together can outweigh the crowding and congestion that trigger demands to shut out new people.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103992/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marion-terrill-169480" target="_blank">Marion Terrill</a>, Transport Program Director, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-fast-growing-cities-and-their-people-are-proving-to-be-remarkably-adaptable-103992" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
</body></html>

Our fast-growing cities and their people are proving to be remarkably adaptable

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lots of discussion about immigration is to be expected in the lead up to the Federal election, and as the Australian population clock approaches 25 million in the coming days. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's interesting to note that the locations where immigrants have mostly been moving to are also by far and away the strongest labour markets in the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The construction boom in Melbourne is all set to push unemployment in Victoria down to below 5 per cent too, joining New South Wales which is already at 4.7 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, the construction pipeline in Victoria is so immense that I believe Melbourne will be the strongest economy in the country for years to come. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oVsdCu-nhYI/W1QBlspHyhI/AAAAAAAArKk/Sej6RxstRIkqFxRjET2Vo6ITLeZK8hH2wCLcBGAs/s640/Sydney.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1375"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Another benefit to these cities is that the immigrants have mainly be younger than the median age, with visa requirements tilted towards those under the age of 30. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's easy to be anti-immigration and blame migrants for traffic congestion and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But Sydney and Melbourne also have dynamic economies unlike much of the rest of the country right now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cause or effect? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But having lived in cities where the population is growing and a city/region where the population ebbed away for year after year, I know which dynamic is preferable...and it ain't the latter!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Incidentally, the younger age of migrants is a positive input for housing market demand in Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Census confirmed a tremendous decade-long surge in the cohort typically representing the first homebuyer age, which will in time stoke demand for inner-suburban apartments in these cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ljttoCR_8eQ/W1aXzCvB9FI/AAAAAAAArL8/dw8Edo9mjAEwpSQ5kX6iVuwZCIu_pGHfgCLcBGAs/s640/year%2Bof%2Bage.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1372"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thanks to immigration Greater Sydney and Melbourne have a much younger median age at 36 than cities such as Adelaide or Hobart at 39. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Migrants, jobs and housing: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>An intriguing set of building activity figures as ever for the March 2018 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most interesting point of note was how thousands of building approvals in the Victorian pipeline were kicked off as dwelling starts in the first three months of the calendar year (recall how Melbourne saw nearly 10,000 townhouses and apartments approved in only a two-month period in October and November last year).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales, on the other hand, there are more houses and apartments approved but not yet commenced than ever before, as developers grapple with tighter financing and languishing apartment pre-sales. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IBA7-WMHTY8/W0V1rvQfoZI/AAAAAAAArAE/uj3Kf3OMkg82lMDyY8usAtL_kner9f9igCEwYBhgL/s640/BA3.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="1389"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Following on from the above, there was a near-explosion in the number of quarterly dwelling commencements in Victoria, to a seasonally adjusted 22,150, well over double the equivalent figure from a decade earlier.<br><br>Melbourne's population growth has been tracking at record highs, and demand for housing is high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This alone was significant enough to send the national trend for dwelling commencements northwards. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JmNI8sM0-qc/W0V1s90dimI/AAAAAAAArAI/9cEGyLHhx3ApESqUvmIQ9VNP2Ny2qaXaACEwYBhgL/s640/BA5.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1310"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In Queensland more houses are being commenced in response to strong demand from interstate migrants, but the number of attached dwelling starts continues to moderate as the Brisbane apartment market rebalances. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BIMygTTR1rg/W0V1sDgFn7I/AAAAAAAArAI/kBXZooy2BQQxTdc9h7P2ikm31-d-5uF1ACEwYBhgL/s640/BA4.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1350"></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Pipeline is enormous</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of residential dwellings units under construction also increased as a result of the Melbourne building boom to more than 224,000, a record high.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-93XBQZlcR8Q/W0V1rWumBwI/AAAAAAAAq_k/WE_s0iLsrJM_prad2slt7pILMs7kag7NACLcBGAs/s640/BA1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1336"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>You can also see the leap in Victorian attached dwellings under construction to a record level, while Sydney completions are now finally raining in, which should result in a spike in vacancy rates in the harbour city as the year rolls on. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iLo-uVMONQA/W0V1rqS_n-I/AAAAAAAAq_o/UBeacRrqL74NiZEC1WXR7wIxlJL6UMiAwCLcBGAs/s640/BA2.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1351"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Both the value of building work to be done ($71.4 billion) and total building work in the pipeline ($95.8 billion) are at all-time highs in current prices terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big question mark is how many of the buyers of off-the-plan apartments will be unable to settle, especially if more valuations at settlement start to come in at under the contract price. </div>
</body></html>

Melbourne's population growth at record highs makes for strong demand for housing: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 387,969 people over the year to December 2017 to 24,770,709 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate fell from an upwardly-revised 1.67 per cent (previous 1.60 per cent) to 1.59 per cent - still near the fastest population growth in 3 years.</p>
<div class="x_WordSection1">
<p class="x_Bullets">The ACT’s annual population growth rate rose from 2.08 per cent in the September 2017 to 2.15 per cent in the December quarter – the strongest growth rate in over 5 years.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/21/can-growth.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/21/can-growth.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Employment rose by 57,900 in the three months to May after a gain of 60,600 in the previous three months. Over the past 12 months, 307,600 people have found jobs, down from 415,900 in the 12 months to February – near the largest annual increase on record. A record 12.54 million Aussies are employed.</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">Over the quarter, employment rose most in Public Administration and Safety (up 88,900), Manufacturing (up 41,100), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 29,100) and Accommodation and Food Services (up 22,700).</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">Healthcare and Social Assistance remains Australia’s leading employer, employing 1.7 million people or 13.3 per cent of all jobs. Retail Trade is in second place with 1.3 million employees.</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/22/employers.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/22/employers.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">In the year to May, 57.5 per cent of those aged 60-64 years and 13.9 per cent of those aged 65 years and over were in the job market – both record highs.</p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1">In the year to May, the average weekly actual hours worked per person employed was just 31.8 hours – a record low.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_CSbulletlv1"><em>The demographic data on jobs provides insights on the job market, wages and prices, and ultimately on interest rates. The data on employment by industry gives insights into which industries are growing the fastest as well as insights on the performance of the broader economy.</em></p>
</div>
<div class="x_WordSection2">
<h1><span>What does it all mean?</span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets">The Reserve Bank recently said that immigration supports Australia’s ageing population. Net immigration slowed during the December quarter. In fact it was the slowest annual growth rate in 2½ years. Migration did account for 62 per cent of total population growth.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Canberra is cool. Long derided by other Aussies, population growth is the strongest in five years in the national capital. And its babies, not overseas or interstate migrants are driving population growth. According to the ACT government, natural increase will account for 62 per cent of the territory’s population growth by 2020.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Clearly Canberra is great for families, and its superior pay packets is attractive for young professionals. According to the Bureau of Statistics,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Aussie public sector wages increased by 2.3 per cent over the year to March.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And during the quarter to May,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Public Administration and Safety jobs growth was the strongest across all occupations.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">And there is no stopping Aussie Baby Boomers. There are more people aged between 60 and 64 years that are currently working than those not working. Senior Aussies are continuing to work due to improved health, technology, more jobs in the services sector, a need to boost superannuation savings and a rise in flexible work options. Older worker participation is expected to increase further because of a gradual rise in the retirement age from 65½ currently to 67 by 2023.</p>
<h1><span>What do the figures show?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Population Statistics</span></strong></p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Australia’s population expanded</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>by 387,969 people over the year to December 2017 to 24,770,709 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate fell from an upwardly-revised 1.67 per cent (previous 1.60 per cent) to 1.59 per cent - still near the fastest population growth in 3 years.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Over the past year population growth was strongest<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></strong>in Victoria (2.30 per cent), followed by the ACT (2.15 per cent), Queensland (1.67 per cent), NSW (1.50 per cent), Tasmania (0.94 per cent), Western Australia (0.83 per cent), South Australia (0.62 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.23 per cent).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">The ACT’s population growth rate at 2.15 per cent is the highest since September 2012.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Australia’s population grew by 68,731 people over the December quarter, after growing by an upwardly-revised 104,450 people (previous 103,918 people) in the September quarter.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>A total of 240,400 people migrated to Australia over year to December</strong>, up from an upwardly-revised 258,000 (previous 250,200 people) in the year to September. Migration growth is down from the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Net migration rose</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>by 35,900 in the December quarter, but the change in annual migration in 2017 fell by 3,600 people, the slowest growth rate in 2½ years.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">There were<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>308,500 babies born</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>in the past year – lower than the record growth of 312,200 babies born in the year to March 2013 – but up by 4,300 births from the year to December 2016.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">There were<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>160,900 deaths</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>in the past year, up by 3,100 deaths from the year to December 2016.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Natural increase</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>for the year ended 31 December 2017 was 147,500 people, up by 0.9 per cent or 1,300 people from the year to December 2016.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Industry Employment</span></strong></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Employment rose by 57,900 in the three months to May after a gain of 60,600 in the previous three months.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Over the past 12 months, 307,600 people have found jobs, down from 415,900 in the 12 months to February – near the largest annual increase on record. A record 12.54 million Aussies are employed. </p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Over the quarter, employment rose most in<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Public Administration and Safety (up 88,900), Manufacturing (up 41,100), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 29,100) and Accommodation and Food Services (up 22,700).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">In the quarter, the number of jobs fell by the most in Transport, Postal and Warehousing (down 29,300), Retail Trade (down 29,100), Education and Training (down 28,600),<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Health Care and Social Assistance (down 26,000) and<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Construction (down 20,000). <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Over the year to May, 16 out of 19 sectors added jobs. The strongest gains were in Manufacturing (up 63,100),<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (up 52,700),Construction (up 47,100) and Health Care and Social Assistance (up 39,200).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Three sectors shed jobs over the past year including Transport, Postal and Warehousing (down 30,000), Other Services (down 28,900) and Retail Trade (down 400).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Health Care and Social Assistance remains the biggest employer with 1.7 million employees (13.3 per cent of the total) followed by Retail Trade (1.3 million jobs or 10.2 per cent), Construction (1.2 million or 9.4 per cent) and Education and Training (1.0 million or 8.0 per cent).</p>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Detailed Employment</span></strong></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">In the year to May, 57.5 per cent of those aged 60-64 years and 13.9 per cent of those aged 65 years and over were in the job market – both record highs.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">At the same time that the participation of seniors are reaching new highs, younger Aussies are looking for work. But participation in the workforce of those between 15-19 years fell to 6-month lows of 54.7 per cent (year to May 2018). Workforce participation of those 20-24 years rose to 78.8 per cent in May, up from 78.6 per cent in April.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">A greater proportion of young married women are also in work. In the year to May, an average of 75.6 per cent of married women aged 25-34 years were in the workforce – a record high.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">In the year to May, the average weekly actual hours worked per person employed was just 31.8 hours – a record low. On average, people are working 2 hours a week less than they were a decade ago.</p>
<h1><span>Why is the data important?</span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets"><strong>Demographic Statistics</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>detailed labour market figures</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment &amp; unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy.</p>
<h1><span>What are the implications?</span></h1>
<p class="x_Bullets">The job market should continue to improve over the coming year. Business conditions are at near-decade highs and indicators of job vacancies and advertisements are at the highest levels for around six years.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">There is still spare capacity but it is slowly being used. Wages should gradually lift over the year amid emerging skills shortages in some industries. Improved job security and rising sharemarkets (the ASX200 is at decade-high levels) should support consumer spending, despite elevated household debt and falling home prices in some cities.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Australia’s population is still growing, albeit down from recent breakneck rates. Rising numbers of Aussies adds to demand for a raft of businesses across a range of industry sectors.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The lift in the growth of the population – and the physical population numbers – lift demand for roads, schools and hospitals, thus boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies. Health, education and construction workers are also in high demand.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Our way of life is changing and governments will need to meet the challenges of a larger population through superior urban planning and world class infrastructure, especially public transport in Australia’s growing capital cities.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">CommSec expects official interest rates to remain unchanged until early next year.</p>
<p class="x_Bullets">Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.</p>
</div>
</body></html>

Canberra's population growth at five year high: CommSec

<html><body>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Melbourne has been attracting most of the population growth headlines, justifiably, but many of the outstanding growth areas of Australia are regional centres.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The population numbers confirm my view that there’s too much emphasis on capital cities and not enough on regional areas.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We have numerous regional centres which are larger than some of our state and territory capital cities.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Gold Coast-Tweed Heads and Newcastle-Maitland urban areas are both larger than the national capital, Canberra.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Central Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Wollongong and Geelong are all significantly bigger than Hobart; while Townsville, Cairns and Toowoomba are all larger cities than Darwin.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A recent analysis of the 50 largest urban areas of Australia by “id the population experts” shows which cities grew the most last year and over the past five years. I’d like to focus in particular on the top 20 urban areas.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In terms of growth in 2017, Geelong is the national growth star with a 2.7% increase, following by nearby Melbourne on 2.6%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Next come the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast, which both grew 2.5%. Brisbane grew 2%, so the unavoidable conclusion is that Australia has two major centres of exceptional population growth – the Melbourne-Geelong region and South-East Queensland.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In terms of five-year growth, the top six growth centres are Melbourne (13.5%), the Sunshine Coast (12.7%), Geelong (12.3%), the Gold Coast (11.4%), Darwin (10.2%) and Sydney (10.1%).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">All of those urban centres, apart from Darwin (which has fallen into a bit of slump in recent years), had significant growth in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Other locations to record strong growth in both 2017 and the past five years include Ballarat (the 18</span><span class="s2"><sup>th</sup></span><span class="s1"> largest urban area in Australia) and Bendigo (the 19</span><span class="s2"><sup>th</sup></span><span class="s1"> largest).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Looking at centres in the 50 largest urban areas but not in the top 20, the two standout growth areas are Melton and Warragul-Drouin.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Melton, out in the far west of the Melbourne metropolitan area, grew 5.3% in 2017 and 26.6% in the past five years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Warragul-Drouin, in the Gippsland region east of Melbourne, increased 3.4% in 2017 and 16.7% in the past five years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Other ABS information shows that many of these regional areas are gaining population from people moving from nearby capital cities. The greatest beneficiary of this trend last year was the Gold Coast, followed by the Sunshine Coast.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Others to gain from refugees from the city include regional areas close to Melbourne, including Latrobe-Gippsland, Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So there’s an undeniable pattern to the population growth achievers of Australia. Victoria is a stand-out, both Melbourne as the leading capital city and numerous regional centres which are surging ahead, including Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Warragul-Drouin.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Beyond Victoria, it’s all about South-East Queensland, with Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast all achieving consistently high growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If we change the focus and concentrate on Local Government Areas rather than continuous urban areas, there’s a slightly different focus, although Melbourne remains the star.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In terms of percentage population growth in 2017, the top 10 LGAs in Australia, according to “id the population experts”, include six municipalities in the Melbourne region, two in Sydney and two in Perth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">From this perspective, the leading population growth LGA last year was Camden in the far south-west of Sydney, which there is ample land for new housing development. The Camden LGA grew 8.4% in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the Perth region, the LGAs of Serpentine-Jarrahdale (up 6.5%) and Kwinana (up 4.6%) ranked No.3 and No.7 among the nation’s municipalities for population growth rates in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Too much emphasis on capital city population growth and not on regional: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The ABS reported that Sydney's population increased by more than +100,000 in FY2017 for the first time ever, in doing so rising to an estimated 5.1 million.</p>
<p>More than 70% of Australia's population growth was accounted for by Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.</p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQupA_3mA1E/Wt62xR9kgCI/AAAAAAAApk0/KhmUFtsU3V0CfYio-r_eh_39R-jtWuhyQCLcBGAs/s1600/B1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQupA_3mA1E/Wt62xR9kgCI/AAAAAAAApk0/KhmUFtsU3V0CfYio-r_eh_39R-jtWuhyQCLcBGAs/s640/B1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1466"></a></p>
<p>Sydney's population growth climbed dramatically to +101,600 (+2%), while Melbourne remained extremely strong at +125,400 (+2.7%).</p>
<p>Melbourne's population has increased by well over ¼ million in only two financial years to hit 4.9 million. </p>
<p>Population growth in Brisbane also picked up strongly to +48,000 or +2%, driven partly by interstate migration. </p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DXJ2awfmAbU/Wt62xfVHlfI/AAAAAAAApk4/BJCtef8snk8YNfg72FzYspUIhts028TJgCLcBGAs/s1600/B2.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DXJ2awfmAbU/Wt62xfVHlfI/AAAAAAAApk4/BJCtef8snk8YNfg72FzYspUIhts028TJgCLcBGAs/s640/B2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1417"></a></p>
<p>Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Geelong recorded some fair population growth in absolute terms, and the ACT also increased by an estimated +6,833 persons. </p>
<p>But generally speaking population growth was considerably weaker around regional Australia.</p>
<p>Darwin (+696), Adelaide (+9,648), and Perth (+21,094) also recorded population growth rates of 1% or less. </p>
</body></html>

Sydney's population growth up 2%: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>Figures out recently showed Australian employment growth <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">tracking at all-time record levels</a>, with a stunning +420,700 year-on-year increase in employment, including an eye-watering +166,200 increase in New South Wales.<br><br>I took a look through those numbers in a bit more detail, including at the state level, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">here</a>.<br><br>Population growth tends to be pro-cyclical, and over the year to September 2017 the annual growth in Australia's estimated resident population picked up to +395,600, for the quickest annual increase since 2013 in absolute terms, if not in percentage terms.<br><br>The estimated rate of population increase through net overseas migration is a bit faster than might be implied by the issuance of permanent residency visas, with the growth international students accounting for some of the difference.<br><br>I'll take a look below through where and why that's happened in 4 short parts.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1: By natural causes...</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>As the population grows and ages the number of deaths each year tends to climb steadily, now up to +161,100 over the year to September 2017.<br><br>The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture.<br><br>Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades.<br><br>I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow.<br><br>I've yet to get divorced.<br><br>You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">much</span></strong> longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!).<br><br>Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500.<br><br>Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase. </div>
<div class="separator">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s1600/C1.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fRHV9pfvdYw/WrMt_M5T65I/AAAAAAAApDA/JrOdDfLGYGoVNcljLVXCvGKUB3wQ4KgTACLcBGAs/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1336"></a> </div>
<div>It's hard to predict what will happen here.<br><br>Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options.<br><br>Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/demographic-tsunami" target="_blank">corresponding explosion</a> in the 25-34 year old cohort.<br><br>The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all.<br><br>Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s1600/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s640/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2: Immigration nation</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Australia's permanent migrant intake is capped at around 200,000 per annum, but the overall pace of net overseas migration was faster than this, partly accounted for by international students.<br><br>Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere.<br><br>Incidentally, I wrote in 2015 how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though).<br><br>Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-34wqqS42Kv8/WrMt_uNCZRI/AAAAAAAApDE/S7IKg-aAloEvqn9YiWNsX7i3Mlzr4NWxACLcBGAs/s1600/C2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-34wqqS42Kv8/WrMt_uNCZRI/AAAAAAAApDE/S7IKg-aAloEvqn9YiWNsX7i3Mlzr4NWxACLcBGAs/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1362"></a></div>
<p> The next slide tells its own story: immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers. </p>
<div> </div>
<div>Concerningly for the regional centres of Australia, the <em>Characteristics of Recent Migrants</em> survey showed that not only do migrants uniformly head to the capital cities, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">they also now overwhelmingly remain there</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I know a bit about this, because I'm one of the said migrants, although like many I've made a couple of internal capital city moves since my first arrival in Australia in the 1990s. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the mining boom years through until 2012 immigrants also flocked to the resources states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I recall Simon Reeve's BBC documentaries revealing to stunned Britons that expat truck drivers in Western Australia were earning salaries that most working class Poms could only dream of, and to rub further salt into their wounds the truckies were living in houses with swimming pools you could actually swim in! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although Queensland has experienced something of a rebound, the drawcard for the resources states is not nearly as strong as it used to be, and South Australia has at least half a foot in that camp too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LnrfG9IeByk/WrMt_3Xt3iI/AAAAAAAApDI/G_pEbNLsM7g31kEbUmB4R8Emq2NOQp51QCLcBGAs/s1600/C3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LnrfG9IeByk/WrMt_3Xt3iI/AAAAAAAApDI/G_pEbNLsM7g31kEbUmB4R8Emq2NOQp51QCLcBGAs/s640/C3.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1378"></a></div>
<div>
<br>Going forward Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland are projected to capture the bulk of population growth.<br><br>Perth will now have direct flights to Europe in its favour, but my analysis here previously has shown that in the future almost all of the net growth in the overseas born population will be driven by migrants of Asian origin.<br><br>European-born Baby Boomers are set to drop off the perch and more Asian migrants and international students from China and India are dominating the intake (with many expected to become permanent residents later).<br><br>This in turn has a strong impact on future demographic pull-factors, including for family visas and future international students.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3: Upping sticks</span></strong><br><br>One of the main trends to watch for me at the moment is internal movements as the two most populous capital cities adjust to the latest influx.<br><br>Sydney in particular can be wearisome at times with the delivery of the CBD &amp; South East Light Rail project still seemingly an age away, although testing on the Randwick section is at least now underway.<br><br>This is scant consolation, I expect, for the commuting residents of Randwick and Coogee currently experiencing near-unfathomable gridlock on their short 6 to 8km journey to the city, only to discover that when then arrive in the city the key CBD thoroughfares are being dug up there too.<br><br>For this reason and others, Queensland has now usurped Victoria as the typical interstate migrant's destination of choice with net inflows hitting a decade high of above +19,000.<br><br>About 12,000 of those came from New South Wales on a net basis, with the ratio of Sydney's house prices to those in Brisbane tracking at the highest level we've ever seen at above 2.2. One way or another that ratio will likely close back below 2. </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s1600/C4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-QEZdgm2pNuk/WrMuAqu4t2I/AAAAAAAApDM/03JRX8SDUyc7fRSf7XW35SD0y6j2QB-agCLcBGAs/s640/C4.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1329"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although not included here because it would simply be a long, flat, green line on this Y-axis scale, Tasmania is now attracting more than a smattering of interstate migrants at +1,000 net over the year to September.<br><br>Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s.<br><br>South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern.<br><br>The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest.<br><br>Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne.<br><br>I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 4: Totting it up</span></strong><br><br>Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015.<br><br>Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.<br><br>I looked <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">in a bit more detail here</a> at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State.<br><br>But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).  </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s1600/C5.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rVhLXroTZG8/WrMuBDlljYI/AAAAAAAApDQ/8CFZqEvcAhcUNt8y8KF0J6jY9zHqfUkOQCLcBGAs/s640/C5.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1379"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A significant <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/melbourne-population-growth-blows-doors" target="_blank">intercensal difference</a> emerged in the 2016 Census and found that the nadir in population growth in Western Australia was considerably lower than previously believed, partly accounting for the dwelling stock overhang, though population growth is now picking up again and the housing market is rebalancing. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s1600/C6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C-QY27SOxTs/WrMuBVYWOOI/AAAAAAAApDU/mefPp-GDV-E_Gg_VlKg6pYS5X-fIocHFgCLcBGAs/s640/C6.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1351"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Western Australia's annual population growth was up to +22,000 or +0.9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, the Northern Territory experienced a small population decline in the September 2017 quarter, which is fairly unusual, though not unheard of. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've even lived in Darwin myself, which says something about what a cyclical type of place it can be. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Through recent episodes of disruption there have been strong correcting factors such a once-in-150 year resources boom or the Cyclone Tracy rebuild to drive the Territory forward. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s1600/NT.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9RgB7oGRs/WrQi0OXGWCI/AAAAAAAApEA/6101Pb5SbLMaZjJDsWFspGK8f7HZ_gXSgCLcBGAs/s640/NT.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1369"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>I'm not sure what comes next for the NT through the Ichthys/INPEX construction phase wash-up, but then again I haven't been to Darwin for a couple of years and it's the sort of place that likes to deliver surprises. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, then, estimated growth in the resident population at +395,600 was comfortably stronger than a year earlier, when it was +370,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's estimated resident population will accordingly pass 25 million within just a few months from today, with Queensland's population projected to surpass 5 million in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the concentration of migrants into the capitals Greater Melbourne is growing at about the fastest pace ever.<br><br>Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>South-east Queensland population growth will pick up as the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">magnetic north</a> does its thing, and in fact it already is as anyone living in inner Brisbane will testify.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1339"></a></div>
</div>
<div>Next I'll get around to posting my mapping population growth versus dwelling completions, which will reveal an interesting outcome or two, especially for Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
</body></html>

Immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers

<html><body>
<div>Like many getting-a-bit-long-in-the-tooth Sydneysiders, I've increasingly been having recurring daydreams about selling a place at Bondi or in the inner west and trading it for a mansion at Maroochydore (or sometime it's a mooring at Mooloolaba). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Probably about once a fortnight I have these fantasises, on average, I reckon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then reality bites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wake up and find that Infrastructure Australia (IA) has released another report, which always brings me back to earth and reminds me why I invested in inner-Sydney property in the first place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever, IA's Future Cities report presents a range of scenarios.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a decentralised scenario which incorporates acres of building and hundreds of thousands of new homes in the south-west.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's a centralised scenario where everyone crams like crazy into zones close to the Central Business District (CBD), and to a lesser extent Parramatta.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's the medium-density scenario, which is a realistic mixture of the two, incorporating population growth across the city and on balance the most likely outcome. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The scenarios have one thing in common: none of them envisages a Sydney in 2046 with a population of under 7.34 million. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PdMnCv6NaPM/WpCTHx3DIuI/AAAAAAAAoic/PKX5PyrObPwoXRjOHlN760TUpD5B47wUwCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="240" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1324"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Although people are expected to live all over Sydney, the share of employment will remain heavily skewed to the CBD and city fringe, and to a secondary extent Parramatta. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aHGJZcD-GmI/WpDsUCuGnlI/AAAAAAAAois/t4fM1LPGEfcej_ytStllHGeERXSVygGMgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1010"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>And there's a great deal of consideration of how people will get around with millions of extra people in essentially the same amount of space (as an investor, I've always gone for train links to the City or walking distance from the Sydney CBD). </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nYjMyB370L0/WpDsgFvkAAI/AAAAAAAAoiw/tW2NMZ_pFIYAhZF5E69vfdV5TCOc_-q-ACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="456" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="658"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Nobody can predict the future, but one thing I will hang my hat on is a massive ongoing demand for rentals close to the middle of Sydney. </div>
<p>From the horse's mouth...</p>
<p>Between 2017 and 2046, Australia’s population is projected to increase by 11.8 million people. </p>
<div>That’s equivalent to adding a new city, roughly the size of Canberra, each year for the next 30 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>About 75% of this growth will occur in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth is a central driver of this change. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the next 30 years, Sydney’s population is projected to increase by 2.4 million people, growing to be a city of 7.4 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the same period, Melbourne is projected to grow by 2.7 million people, to be a city of 7.3 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Between now and 2046, Brisbane is projected to grow by 1.6 million people and Perth by 2.2 million people, delivering cities of just under 4 million and 4.3 million, respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This means the Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will become cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While Melbourne and Sydney will become cities comparable to the current size of some of the world’s most significant urban economies, operating more like the Hong Kong, New York and London of today.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
</body></html>

Population Growth

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Population Growth

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News