Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Population Growth

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The Fraser Coast population continues to increase at a slow, steady pace with the years between 2015 and 2018 fluctuating at between 1.16% and 2.03%, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. 
The report notes growth projections for the Fraser Coast population have been forecast to increase from 108,543 in 2019 to 147,099 in 2036, equating to an overall 35.52% rise and an additional 22,800 dwellings.
"Recent migration trends have been led by retirees, as well as families of both young and older parents," the valuation firm said. 
These new residents have largely migrated from other south-east Queensland municipalities, including Gympie and South Burnett areas.
"Affordability is seen as a major driver for population growth with particular focus on the coastal lifestyle," the valuation firm added. 
"There is also demand for dual occupancy properties for older parents or young adults residing with combined incomes that improves affordability for housing."
The Fraser Coast Regional Council considers the area to have a large supply of future residential land with targeted areas such as Hervey Bay – South West and the Nikenbah-Dundowran Future Growth Area, located on the fringes.
A three bedroom house in Nikenbah has recently been sold for $325,000.
The home at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-nikenbah-131719222" target="_blank"> 57 Samarai Drive</a> (pictured below) comprises three bedrooms, separate living room, open plan living/kitchen/dining area, and garden. 
It's located close to schools, hospital and Stockland shopping centre. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/nikenbah.jpg" alt="">
Burrum Heads, Toogoom, Craignish and Dundowran Beach have also been identified.
A two bedroom duplex at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-duplex+semi-detached-qld-burrum+heads-131866478" target="_blank">2/10 Bentwood Street, Burrum Heads</a> (pictured below) is on the market with a price guide of $289,000.
Located just two streets back from the beach, the home comes with two bedrooms, kitchen with stone bench tops, and attached garage. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/burrum%20heads.jpg" alt="">
Closer to Maryborough, modest growth is expected for the western and southern hinterland for rural residential estates and areas near the Bruce Highway, the HTW report noted. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/population%20growth.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/population%20growth.jpg" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Hervey Bay's affordability and coastal lifestyle drive population growth: HTW residential 

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Geelong’s demographic profile continues to diversify, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. 
The valuation firm took look at what's bring new residents to residential markets, or conversely, driving them away. 
The report notes in 2011, the top five countries of birth for people in Geelong apart from Australia were England, Italy, New Zealand and Croatia.
In 2016, the structure of the top five countries of birth had changed with India taking fourth place in the chart and making up almost 1% of the total population of Geelong.
Those born in South-East, North-East Asia, Southern and Central Asia have increased significantly in numbers and percentage not only in Geelong but across Melbourne and Victoria as a result of overseas migration.
According to Australian census data, Geelong’s population is continually growing in size. 
Looking back on the last eight years of Geelong’s population change to 2016, the growth rate was very strong, ranging annually from 1% to 2%.
"Geelong is characterised by the recently revitalised Waterfront precinct and newer residential areas of Geelong further out of the city’s CBD," the valuation firm said. 
"Geelong is still affordable for buyers representing strong opportunities for investors and owner-occupiers."
Though the median house price for greater Geelong as at June 2019 was between $400,000 and $600,000, buyers could still get a near-new, three or four-bedroom house for close to $400,000.
A three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-lara-131503622" target="_blank">17 Celesta Road, Lara</a> (pictured below) has recently been sold for $406,000.
The home comprises three bedrooms, open plan kitchen, single garage, and landscaped front and backyards.
It's located five minutes away from Lara Shopping Village, the Centreway shopping strip, Lara library and Community Centre. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/17%20Celesta%20Road%20Lara%20.jpg" alt="">
Another example was a four bedroom family house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-armstrong+creek-130780702" target="_blank">6 Chucklecreek Lane, Armstrong Creek </a>(pictured below) which was sold for $456,000.
The home comes with four bedrooms, kitchen with gas cooktop, remote double garage and split system cooling.
It's located walking distance to public transport, parks/reserves, The Village shopping centre and Armstrong Creek school.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/armstrong%20creek.jpg" alt="">
"The recent local infrastructure projects including an extension of railways, continuous improvement of Geelong’s activity centres together with Geelong based Deakin University community operations undoubtedly influence the growth of the local economy and stimulate potential property market participants."  
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Geelong demographics shifting as migration boosts population: HTW residential 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Australian cities and regions will be able to better plan for the economic and social dividend of growth with the launch of a new National Population Plan.
The Commonwealth Government has today announced details of its National Population Plan, building on the recent creation of a new Centre for Population Growth and changes to the migration program. 
Immigration and population growth have been an essential ingredient of the modern Australian story, adding to the nation’s collective prosperity.
Our population will keep growing so we need to stay ahead of the task of understanding its implications. 
A clear national plan that includes rolling short and long-term forecasts, maps settlement patterns and informs land use, housing, infrastructure and service delivery is crucial. 
We can also use the opportunity to open a stronger dialogue with the community around the trajectory and consequences of change that can create stronger, more prosperous cities and regions. 
A major plus of the plan is it leans on the states to help inform settlement patterns and then structures the migration and visa program to meet workforce needs. 
This should means the states are better placed to deliver on the land use, infrastructure and housing needed to sustain known rates of growth. 
Migrants have always brought skills, workforce capability, wages, tax revenue, diversity and improved productivity to the table. 
The new National Population Plan shows a willingness to harness these assets and tie them to a population policy framework that enhances the national economy.”
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CONNIE KIRK is the UDIA National Executive Director.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

National Population Plan a critical new policy tool: UDIA

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The Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has acknowledged that lower interest rates had pushed up Sydney housing prices during the 2012 to 2017 boom.
"I think that’s pretty clear," he acknowledged when recently addressing our federal politicians.
But he went onto say there were other things that were "probably more important over the past decade".
"They go to population growth and the slow response to that on the supply side," he said. 
Lowe pinpointed that population growth picked up in Australia quite a lot and it took almost a decade for the rate of growth of the supply to respond to that.
He added he was raising the topic in the context of the next phase in the housing market.
"Because what we’re seeing at the moment is quite strong population growth, which I think is good, but the additions to supply of the housing stock are slowing right down.
"New development is slowing down, and one of the issues we’re going to keep a very close eye on over the next little while is what the supply of housing is doing.
"If developers cannot get financed, the supply of housing will slow a lot and we will be sowing the seeds for the next upswing."
The property market is a dynamic entity, always evolving.
One of the great marketing tools bandied about the market is that strong population growth is an indicator of future price growth.
But not just by itself as the governor advises this point fails to heed the impact of supply and demand.
Australia's population stands at around 25.4 million, up 404,000 in 2018.
The ABS calculates one birth every 1 minute and 40 seconds, one death every 3 minutes and 19 seconds, one person arriving to live in Australia every 56 seconds, one Australian resident leaving Australia to live overseas every 1 minute and 53 seconds, leading to an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 13 seconds.
NSW's population sits at just over eight million, up 1.6% last year.
Victoria recorded the highest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.2%. The Northern Territory recorded the lowest growth rate at -0.4%.
Capital city growth accounted for 79% of Australia's total population growth. The capital city with the largest increase in population was Melbourne (119,400 people), followed by Sydney (up 93,400 to around 5.2 million) and Brisbane (50,100).
The fastest growing Sydney localities were around Riverstone, Marsden Park, Cobbitty, Leppington, Rouse Hill and Beaumont Hills.
Taking a look at dwelling approvals, which of course don't all get undertaken, Australia's new housing pipeline currently sits at a five-year low.
The rolling yearly total sits around 199,000, official figures show.
The peak was 232,000 approvals in 2015.
It hasn't been lower than 100,000 nationally since 2001.
There were 180,000 plus peaks in the mid-70s, late 80s, mid-90s, 2000 to 2004 and 2011.
It was running at around 70,000 in the 1950s. 
NSW's approvals peaked in 2017 at around 70,000.
Housing markets are not homogeneous across Australia’s states and territories, or even in neighbouring suburbs.
The relationships between housing markets and the broader demographic shifts are complex, although conventional wisdom does suggest house prices are primarily influenced by the factors headlined by interest rates, building activity and population growth.
When house prices move in an ‘abnormal’ way it is often because one or more of these drivers become distorted relative to their ‘normal’ settings.
This article was first published in the Saturday Telegraph.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Low interest rates alone don't explain house price boom – demographics are also key

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With new forecasts of record population growth across Australia’s major capital cities over the next few decades and affordability remaining a challenge, is it time to reconsider the core principles and policies that guide the management of this growth?
The accepted wisdom that we should be simply directing development and people towards higher density living in our major cities, especially Melbourne and Sydney, is increasingly being challenged by many buyers and households who continue to vote with their feet and move to more affordable locations, including greenfield suburbs, peri-urban locations and regional centres.
Two recent reports have highlighted current and emerging trends about how our cities might evolve in the future and what the opportunities and challenges might be.
<a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/land-use-and-population-research/victoria-in-future">Recent population projections by the Victorian Government</a> suggest Greater Melbourne could have a population of nine million by 2056 with a full state population of 11.2 million, up from 6.5 million in 2018. Greater Melbourne is expected to grow by 1.6% every year while the rest of Victoria could grow by 1.0% every year.
How do we deal with this growth? 
The CSIRO’s latest<a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/ANO"> Australian National Outlook 2019 (ANO)</a> suggests the country could face a ’Slow Decline’ if we do not take action on our most significant economic, social and environmental challenges.
The report highlights several key shifts that are required to meet these challenges and maintain our high standard of living, including a focus on greater densification of our cities.
“An urban shift will enable well-connected, affordable cities that offer more equal access to quality jobs, lifestyle amenities, education and other services,” the report said.
The report notes that the ‘shift’ could potentially be achieved by planning for higher-density, multi-centre and well-connected capital cities to reduce urban sprawl and congestion, creating mixed land use zones with diverse high-quality housing options and investing in innovative transportation infrastructure.
However, policies that direct most people into higher density housing options in our major cities do not always reflect the needs or aspirations of buyers and households.
Affordability constraints and the fact that many households, especially young and established families, prefer a detached house should be carefully considered when advocating for increased density as a ‘one size fits all’ policy.
While increased densities in our major cities are one way of coping with rapid (and often unexpected) population growth, it is worthwhile considering what buyers, families and households want and what the alternatives might be.
Young people are increasingly abandoning expensive coastal cities (where apartments are the main housing option for new property market entrants) in favour of more affordable locations where they can purchase single-family homes.
The reason is simple. Although many younger people who want to live and work in wealthy coastal capital cities, they often have little choice but to become permanent renters, usually in smaller apartments. They are keenly aware that home ownership is critical to long-term financial security and family formation.
In response, four-fifths of home buyers under 35 in America choose to purchase single-family detached houses in the suburbs. Since 2010, around 1.8 million Americans have moved away from the urban core of major metropolitan areas. They have opted, instead, to move to lower-density areas where single-family houses are the norm.
Some commentators have argued that the push for densification of our cities is not the result of market conditions but the concerted efforts by some who want to fundamentally alter the way cities are built. 
Arguably, responding to actual market needs and addressing key issues like affordability and declining home ownership figure less prominently.
While not often highlighted, we see a similar phenomenon in Australia where our greenfield and other outer suburbs and peri-urban areas are popular with many buyers and households. However, in these markets, supply falls short of demand.
We are also seeing many regional centres across the country experience rapid population growth.
While increasing density across our urban areas represents one important tool for accommodating a burgeoning population, it cannot be the only strategy when we are dealing with a complex range of issues especially those that relate to how and where people want to live and raise a family.
Rather than looking to simply transform Australian cities and urban areas into densely populated metropolises, we should be more nuanced about how we will build the cities of the future with individual and family choice and market aspirations taking a key role in our thinking.
George Bougias is the national head of research at Oliver Hume.
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Is it time to rethink density? George Bougias

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CoreLogic observed that over the 12 months to December 2018, the estimated residential population of Australia increased by 1.6% or by 404,783 persons; the largest increase in raw number terms since September 2017 and it was also the third consecutive quarter in which the annual population increase trended higher.
Looking at the two components of population growth at a national level (natural increase and net overseas migration) they found that net overseas migration remains the primary driver of population growth.
Over the year, natural increase was recorded 156,337 persons, the highest it has been since March 2015 and 8.5% higher than in December 2017. Net overseas migration was recorded at 248,446 persons, the highest it has been since September 2017 and 2.8% higher than the previous year.
Across the states and territories, net interstate migration is also a contributor to population growth.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%201.JPG" alt="">
NEW SOUTH WALES
 With an estimated population of 8,046,070 persons, the population has increased by 123,813 persons or 1.6% over the past year, which is in-line with the national rate of growth. The 123,813 person increase was the greatest since September 2017 and was made-up of natural increase of 53,711 persons, net overseas migration of 91,999 persons and a loss of 21,897 persons due to net interstate migration. Natural increase of 53,711 persons was the greatest on record while the 91,999 persons increase due to net overseas migration was the largest increase in 12 months. The loss of 21,897 residents due to net interstate migration was slightly lower than the previous quarter but up from 19,299 persons a year earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%202.JPG" alt="">
VICTORIA
The estimated population increased by 2.2% over the 2018 calendar year taking it to 6,526,413 persons with an increase of 139,430 persons over the past year. The 139,430 person population increase consisted of natural increase of 40,256 persons, net overseas migration of 85,965 persons and net interstate migration of 13,209 persons. Although the population continues to increase rapidly, both net overseas and net interstate migration are lower than they were a year ago and natural increase is higher than a year ago but lower than the previous quarter.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%203.JPG" alt="">
QUEENSLAND
The estimated population increased by 89,905 persons, or 1.8%, throughout 2018 taking the estimated population to 5,052,827 persons. The 1.8% annual increase in population was the largest since June 2013 and consisted of increases of 31,070 persons due to natural increase, 35,039 persons due to net overseas migration and 23,796 due to net interstate migration. Natural increase was the greatest it has been since March 2017, net overseas migration was the greatest since September 2013 while net interstate migration is the highest of any state it has slowed for two consecutive quarters and is the lowest since December 2017. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%204.JPG" alt="">
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
With an estimated 1,742,744 residents, the population increased by 0.8% or 14,585 persons throughout 2018. The 14,585 person increase included natural increase of 5,490 persons, net overseas migration of 13,319 persons and a loss of 4,224 persons due to net interstate migration. Natural increase was the greatest it has been since June 2017, net overseas migration was the greatest it has been since June 2010 and the outflow of residents to other state and territories was the slowest it has been since March 2015.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%205.JPG" alt="">
West Australia
Over the 2018 calendar year the estimated population increased by 23,961 persons or 0.9% to take the total population estimate to 2,606,338 persons. The 23,961 person increase over the year is well down on the peak of the mining boom when WA added 73,922 in 2008. The 23,961 person increase over the past year was made-up of natural increase of 18,601 persons, net overseas migration of 14,863 persons and a loss from net interstate migration of 9,503 persons. Natural increase was the lowest it has been since September 2009, net overseas migration was the highest it has been since December 2014 and the loss of residents to other states and territories was the smallest since March 2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%206.JPG" alt="">
Tasmania
The population increased by 1.2% over the past year or 6,499 persons which was the largest annual increase in population since September 1990, taking the estimated population to 531,529 persons. Natural increase was recorded at 1,260 persons, the greatest it has been since December 2016. Net overseas migration was recorded at 2,717 persons, the greatest it has been since September 2017. Net interstate migration was recorded at 2,522 persons, the greatest it has been since June 2004.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%207.JPG" alt="">
Northern Territory
As at December 2018 the estimated population was 245,854 persons which was actually a reduction in population of 1,010 persons over the past year. While natural increase was recorded at 2,680 persons and net overseas migration at 526 persons. NT lost 4,216 residents due to net interstate migration causing the overall population to fall. Natural increase was the smallest since December 2005, net overseas migration was the smallest since September 2003 and the loss of residents due to net interstate migration was the largest on record. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%208.JPG" alt="">
Australian Capital Territory
The population increased by 1.8% or 7,574 persons throughout 2018 taking the estimated resident population to 423,811 persons. Over the year, natural increase was recorded at 3,247 persons, net overseas migration of 4,014 persons and net interstate migration of 313 persons. Natural increase was the lowest it has been since September 2009, net overseas migration was the lowest it has been since December 2016.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%208.JPG" alt="">
The data shows that the national population is still growing at a rapid rate despite recent moves to lower permanent migration. The population of NSW and Vic continues to grow by the greatest amount. Population increase in NSW is primarily driven by natural increase and net overseas migration, accounting for 37.0% of national net overseas migration. Vic has seen 34.6% on net overseas migration nationally over the past year and has also recorded the second highest rate of net interstate migration (behind Qld). Vic, Qld, Tas and ACT are seeing a positive rate of net interstate migration as more people arrive from interstate than leave. Over the coming quarters it is expected that similar trends will continue with strong population increases in NSW and Vic driven by overseas migration and strong rates of net interstate migration for Vic and Qld. Of course population growth, particularly migration, is a proxy for housing demand. High levels of migration mean increased demand for housing which is a factor that should assist in putting a floor under the recent declines in dwelling values (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne). Furthermore, increasing populations should also assist in the absorption of the large volume of apartments under construction in Sydney and Melbourne.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Australia's population grew over 400,000 in 2018: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Official results show that 2018 was one of the strongest years on record for population growth, with the number of people living here rising by 404,780 during the year. 
This reinforces the need for state and territory governments to work with the Federal Government to implement microeconomic reform measures that will support the fast tracking of congestion busting infrastructure projects and more efficient planning, tax and red tape cutting regimes to support an increase in new housing construction.
ABS data indicates that Australia’s population rose by 1.6% over the course of 2018. Net migration from overseas accounted for about 250,000 additional residents while the excess of births over deaths added 156,000 to the population. 
There is a very strong linkage between inward migration to Australia and the pace of job creation. The 270,000 increase in total employment during 2018 is very similar to the figure for overseas migration. 
Population and jobs growth drives construction activity right across the spectrum including for residential, offices, shops, schools and hospitals – not to mention all of the support infrastructure needed.
Australia’s building sector is currently facing challenges in the form of weakening economic growth and difficulties around access to finance in some parts of the market.
Fast tracking the rollout of previously announced government infrastructure projects would help strengthen confidence on the ground in addition to meeting the needs of a growing population.
Master Builders estimates that between 193,850 and 201,705 new homes will need to be built each year over the coming two decades to accommodate future growth. Failing to do this will surely result in home ownership becoming an even more formidable quest for our younger generations.
Given that we managed to build just 173,350 dwellings per year over the past 20 years, the onus is on all tiers of government to lift their game and ensure that land supply, planning policy and taxation settings are more conducive to the delivery of the homes and buildings we will require.
During 2018, the fastest rate of population growth was in Victoria (+2.2%), followed by the ACT (+1.8%) and Queensland (+1.8%). More modest growth was recorded in NSW (+1.6%) and Tasmania (+1.2%). 
Particularly challenging economic conditions in the NT contributed to a 0.4% decline in its population during 2018. Population growth was quite modest in South Australia (+0.8%) and Western Australia (+0.9%).
SHANE GARRETT is Master Builders Australia’s Chief Economist.
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Strong population growth reinforces need for economic reform: Shane Garrett

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Australia's population grew by 1.6 per cent during 2018, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). ABS Demography Director Beidar Cho said: "Steady growth over recent quarters has resulted in a population of 25.2 million people at 31 December 2018." The number of births in 2018 reached an all time high of 314,900, 161,900 of these were male and 153,000 female. 
The previous record was 312,200 in 2012. There were fewer deaths in Australia during 2018, compared with 2017 (158,500 in 2018 and 160,100 in 2017). 
As a result, natural increase was 156,300 people in 2018, compared with 144,100 in 2017.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/Population-data.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/Population-data.jpg" alt=""> Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted for 38.6 per cent of population growth, while net overseas migration accounted for the remaining 61.4 per cent.  Net overseas migration for 2018 was 248,400 people, which was higher than the 2017 figure of 241,700. This is due to a decline in overseas migration departures (281,600 in 2018 compared with 289,700 in 2017) and relatively stable overseas migration arrivals (530,100 in 2018 and 531,400 in 2017). Victoria continued to have the highest growth at 2.2 per cent and Tasmania continued to have its stronger growth (1.2 per cent) in comparison with recent years.
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Victoria's 2018 population growth the fastest across Australia

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Sydney’s latest five-year housing supply forecast, written by the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, anticipates a solid pipeline of construction.
NSW Department of Planning and Environment Executive Director, Justin Douglas, said the new forecast shows almost 192,000 new dwellings will be built across the city during 2018/19 to 2022/23.
Douglas said Sydney needs to build 725,000 new homes in the next 20 years, or around 36,000 per annum, to accommodate a growing population.
"We’re forecasting to meet that demand over the next five years, with just over 38,000 homes per year on average planned for the city," he said. 
He believes it's good news for first home buyers as supply levels are strong and there are more purchasing options.
The forecast shows the top five local government areas where additional new homes will be built over the next five years are Parramatta (22,100), Blacktown (18,300), Sydney (14,850), Liverpool (11,950) and The Hills (11,700).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/7/Supply%20hotspot.JPG" alt="">
"The forecast helps to inform decisions on future land use zoning to ensure there’s a solid pipeline of new housing supply," Douglas said. 
"It takes account of current residential developments under assessment, approved but not commenced construction, and those under construction, as well as analysis of likely future development under current zoning and planning controls.
"The preparation of the forecast has involved significant input from local government, the development industry, service providers, and state agencies."
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/7/local-government-area-forecast-map-2400x1698.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/7/local-government-area-forecast-map-2400x1698.jpg" alt="">
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Parramatta and Blacktown top Sydney’s official housing supply pipeline forecast 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As at June 2018, an estimated 17,650,130 residents of Australia were born in Australia.
While this might seem like a high number, it shows that 29.4% of residents were born overseas. Based on data from the ABS, which dates back to 1996, this is the highest share of residents born overseas on record.
It also shows that over 2017-18, Australian born residents increased by 1.1%, overseas born residents increased in population by a much larger 2.8%. While that figure is high, it was down from 3.3% over the previous year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%201.JPG" alt="">
Harking back to colonial times, England remains the largest source of residents that were born overseas. In fact, almost 1 million residents were born in England, which accounts for 13.5% of all Australian residents that were born overseas. The top 10 countries of birth accounted for 54.8% of all residents that were born overseas as at June 2018.
Another interesting point of note is that migration from certain countries has clearly slowed.
The number of persons born in England peaked at 1,012,780 persons in 2013, consistently falling to its current level. The number of persons born in New Zealand also peaked in 2013 at 585,390, as did persons born in Scotland (142,360) and persons born in Italy (200,670).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%202.JPG" alt="">
 
While we have seen fewer residents born in in these countries over the past five years, there has been a significant rise in persons born in China (432,400 in 2013) and India (378,480) over the same five-year period.
Twenty years ago, the top 10 countries of birth for residents born overseas accounted for 56.0% of all residents born overseas. Keep in mind that in 1998, a much lower number of residents were born overseas.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%203.JPG" alt="">
 
The makeup of the CoreLogic top 10 list 20 years ago is quite different to how it currently looks. China is now the second largest source of residents while 20 years ago it was the seventh largest.
India, which is now the third largest source of residents was the 12th largest source, Malaysia is now the ninth largest source and was the 13th largest source 2 decades ago and South Africa is now the seventh largest source of residents compared to 17th 20 years ago.
20 years ago, Greece was the sixth largest source of residents born overseas compared to 15th now, Germany was the eighth largest source compared to being 14th now and Netherlands was the 10th largest source compared to 25th now.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%204.JPG" alt="">
 
Although the Federal Government has recently announced that they are set to reduce the migration intake going forward, Australia is still set to be a very multicultural country.
Furthermore, demand for our education services, particularly from the world’s two most populous countries (China and India) is anticipated to remain high. As a result, expect even more residents of Chinese and Indian heritage to find their way to our shores over the coming years.
Similarly, those countries such as Scotland and Italy will likely see themselves fall out of the top 10 list over coming years with new countries of origin finding their way to the top 10 list.
CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Mr Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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