<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.</p>

<p>The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.</p>

<p>The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]</p>

<p>Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.</p>

<p>Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.</p>

<p>Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]</p>

<p>Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.</p>

<p>“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.</p>

<p>“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”</p>

<p>“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.”<br />
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]</p>

<p>The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.</p>

<p>Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.</p>

<p>The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.</p>

<p>The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]</p>

<p>Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”</p>

<p>A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.</p>

<p>That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.</p>

<p>The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]</p>

<p>According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.</p>

<p>Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.</p>

<p>The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.</p>

<p>The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.</p>

<p>That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.</p>

<p>The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]</p>

<p>The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.</p>

<p>“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”</p>

<p>The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]</p>


Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.</p>

<p>The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.</p>

<p>Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]</p>

<p>Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.</p>

<p>Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.</p>

<p>“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.</p>

<p>He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.</p>

<p>“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.</p>

<p>“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]</p>

<p>Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.</p>

<p>Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.</p>

<p>Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.</p>

<p>Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.</p>

<p>The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]</p>

<p>Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.</p>

<p>Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.</p>

<p>Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]</p>


NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

<p>Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.</p>

<p>The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.</p>

<p>The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="529"><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" /></p>

<p data-end="1040" data-start="794">According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.</p>

<p>The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.</p>

<p>Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.</p>

<p>“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.</p>

<p>The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.</p>

<p>The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" /></p>

<p>The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”</p>

<p>The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.</p>

<p>Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" /></p>

<p>St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.</p>

<p>Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.</p>

<p>The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.</p>

<p>More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.</p>


First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Population Growth

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<div>The government's State of Australian Cities report for 2015 revealed some interesting demographic and social trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The report found that population growth in recent years is becoming increasingly capital city focussed over time, and this is projected to become even more so the case over the next five decades.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In fact, just the four most populous capital cities plus Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and a handful of other conurbations have accounted for the overwhelming bulk of population growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/05/23/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/23/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>The other cities and "peri-urban locations" which experienced some population growth were as follows:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/05/23/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/23/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Projecting trends forward, the government expects the capital city share of population growth to continue increasing relentlessly for the next half century, from about two thirds to more than 80 per cent by 2061:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>"The majority of Australia's future population growth is expected to occur in and around its capital cities...Australia's population living in capital cities will more than double by 2061".</em></div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/23/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> </p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/23/A4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>The projections show population growth expanding rapidly so that by 2061 several capital cities will have become very large indeed, including Sydney (8.5 million), Melbourne (8.6 million), Brisbane (5.8 million), and Perth (5.5 million).  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By contrast the respective populations of the smaller cities aren't expected to change all that much in absolute terms. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/23/A5.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/23/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">House price trends</span></strong></p>
<div>The State of Australian Cities report notes that for regional cities "overall house prices have not recovered strongly since the financial crisis".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This mirrors quite closely what we have seen in Britain, with house prices rising strongly almost everywhere due to a debt binge broadly from around 2000 to 2008, in Australia's case spurred on by a once-in-a-century mining boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But in most regional markets a long period of stagnation has followed since. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>You don't really need data series to demonstrate this point - just read the personal experiences of property investors on chat forums and their collective frustration is more than evident. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/23/a6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/05/23/a6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>It's been fairly well documented that house price growth has been strong in the largest capital cities, but house price growth has been far from uniform even within the larger capitals. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Research conducted on behalf of the Valuer General concluded that price growth continues to be considerably stronger in the suburbs located close to the Central Business District. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/05/23/a7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/05/23/a7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><span>Indeed, research papers by the </span>Reserve Bank of Australia<span> (RBA), </span>AHURI<span> and others have all arrived at the same conclusion.</span> </p>
<div>Concludes the government report:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>"Inner urban regions and municipalities such as the Boorondara, inner, northern and eastern statistical districts and the inner Melbourne districts are pulling away from price growth rates of the middle and outer ring regions. </em></div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div><em>The differences mean residents of outer urban regions are likely to be increasingly constrained in their ability to move to inner regions."</em></div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/23/A8.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Non-capital house prices have not recovered strongly since the financial crisis: Pete Wargent 

<html><body>
<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It's very much true that monthly figures often don't tell you a lot, and even annual figures are often quite misleading. </span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>But over a period of years now we have seen Melbourne come to utterly dominate population and employment growth in Victoria, directly at the expense of the state's regional centres. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year Greater Sydney (+67,200) and Greater Melbourne (+59,700) have both added a healthy balance to their total employed figures respectively, while Greater Brisbane added a solid (+34,900). <br><br>And after some years of stagnation regional New South Wales (+60,900) has now at last come to the party, adding jobs in the state's regional centres both to the north and south of the harbour city. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, mirroring what I already discussed in more detail here when analysing the latest population growth figures, regional Victoria added just 900 jobs over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, if you strip out Geelong which added nearly 20,000 jobs over the year to March 2016 to see its unemployment rate fall to just 5.2 per cent, the rest of state has been going backwards as Greater Melbourne powers along. The most recently available population growth figures painted a very similar picture.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It is true that annual figures can sometimes be misleading, but population and employment projections are becoming increasingly lopsided towards the capital city in Victoria to the extent that regional Victoria could actually soon even soon be seeing its population decline in aggregate.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, regional employment growth has been generally very weak in aggregate across all states outside of the Premier State, despite some tourism-related gains in Queensland's coastal regions. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Regional employment fell year-on-year, for example, in both South Australia (-900) and Western Australia (-15,900), the latter's labour force having been severely dampened by the end of the mining construction boom. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></div>
<div>Totting it all up we can see just how skewed employment growth has been towards a few capital cities, and certain parts of regional Queensland. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment rates</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Low interest rates are working their magic in the three largest capital cities where rolling annual unemployment rates are having been trending down nicely, in Greater Sydney, in Greater Melbourne, and in Greater Brisbane. </div>
<div>
<br>Elsewhere it's not such a pretty picture, particularly in Adelaide which now has by far and away the highest unemployment rate of the capital cities. <br><br>Greater Perth's rolling annual unemployment rate now seems to be holding firm at just under 6 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Sydney continues to have the best placed economy, reflected in generally low unemployment rates, especially in its inner suburbs. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Ripple</span></strong><br><br>Sydney and to a somewhat lesser extent Melbourne have seen their property markets take off since 2012 in response to low interest rates, but where will that growth ripple to next?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In my opinion, we could easily see a spike or "pop" in house prices in Hobart and Adelaide, following so many years of subdued property price growth and a relatively moribund construction industry which has seen rental markets become fairly tight in some cases. <br><br>In fact, this "pop" in prices may already be happening to some extent.<br><br>
</div>
<div>However, with low employment growth, slow population growth, and slow economic growth, more sustainable property price increases will be much harder to come by. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/26/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/26/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the course of the next cycle, Brisbane probably has the best property market prospects due its relative affordability. <br><br>Despite slower net overseas migration than it previously experienced Queensland benefits from interstate migration (as opposed to, say, South Australia, where a brain drain represents the opposite dynamic). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate has also steadily been trending down in Brisbane, helped by a construction boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>True, the economy has hardly been firing, even if things are broadly tracking in the right direction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But the initial trigger for rising property prices is simply likely to be rising property prices, with the cheapest available cost of borrowing having not far off halved since the last time the city saw any price growth in real terms, and interstate investors struggling to see so much value elsewhere. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, dwelling prices are already rising quite fast in some areas of Brisbane, reflected in year-on-year median price growth of above +6 per cent for Brisbane and Gold Coast (CoreLogic-RP Data), but the market is quite multi-speed, particularly with the volume of construction going on. </div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Em9By-I0i7E/VxhOPe0ZmWI/AAAAAAAAckc/ql1Vmw8Js-IJMMVaMVo-FmCGOrCcGTFcgCLcB/s1600/A7.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Em9By-I0i7E/VxhOPe0ZmWI/AAAAAAAAckc/ql1Vmw8Js-IJMMVaMVo-FmCGOrCcGTFcgCLcB/s1600/A7.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Em9By-I0i7E/VxhOPe0ZmWI/AAAAAAAAckc/ql1Vmw8Js-IJMMVaMVo-FmCGOrCcGTFcgCLcB/s640/A7.jpg" width="640" height="356"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional headwinds</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane offers something that Sydney and Melbourne no longer do, being cheap entry prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And if you're looking for cheaper entry prices still and higher initial rental yields you may be tempted further afield.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, remember that yield and income are not the same thing, and in the field of investment a higher yield can often be reflective of higher risk. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular a once-in-a-century commodities and resources construction boom must eventually experience a corresponding decline, and so regions with a concentrated exposure to a narrow range of industries may see a spike in unemployment, which tends to result in slowing population growth, falling property prices, and rising vacancy rates (which is the ultimate risk for leveraged investors).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I don't know much about how Townsville's property market is tracking lately, but do note that unemployment just hit its highest level in 13 years this month after the commencement of the Yabulu lay-offs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted monthly unemployment readings at the sub-regional level are incredibly seasonal and are about as reliable as a beat up Datsun. But this is not a coincidental result with Townsville having witnessed nearly 10,000 jobs lost in just the past year alone, the high profile Nickel industry closure being the latest casualties of the bust.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest ABS figures record some 13,100 unemployed persons in Townsville, the highest since a brief spike in February 2003 for the most troubling regional unemployment rate in Australia at 12.4 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/26/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/26/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>These types of trends tend to be reflected in rising vacancy rates as population growth dries up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It never pays to over-dramatize, but Warwick Powell (to my knowledge not a man prone to making wildly exaggerated statements) said recently that "the region is on the precipice of a great depression", while economist Colin Dwyer lamented that Townsville is "the insolvency capital of Australia". </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS data shows that employment in Townsville has fallen by an extraordinary 20,342 or 18 per cent in only the past year. Let's hope to goodness that is a rogue figure, but it doesn't much look like it from the trend. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Townsville unemployment at 13 year high: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>An intriguing set of building activity figures as ever for the March 2018 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most interesting point of note was how thousands of building approvals in the Victorian pipeline were kicked off as dwelling starts in the first three months of the calendar year (recall how Melbourne saw nearly 10,000 townhouses and apartments approved in only a two-month period in October and November last year).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales, on the other hand, there are more houses and apartments approved but not yet commenced than ever before, as developers grapple with tighter financing and languishing apartment pre-sales. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IBA7-WMHTY8/W0V1rvQfoZI/AAAAAAAArAE/uj3Kf3OMkg82lMDyY8usAtL_kner9f9igCEwYBhgL/s640/BA3.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="1389"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Following on from the above, there was a near-explosion in the number of quarterly dwelling commencements in Victoria, to a seasonally adjusted 22,150, well over double the equivalent figure from a decade earlier.<br><br>Melbourne's population growth has been tracking at record highs, and demand for housing is high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This alone was significant enough to send the national trend for dwelling commencements northwards. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JmNI8sM0-qc/W0V1s90dimI/AAAAAAAArAI/9cEGyLHhx3ApESqUvmIQ9VNP2Ny2qaXaACEwYBhgL/s640/BA5.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1310"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In Queensland more houses are being commenced in response to strong demand from interstate migrants, but the number of attached dwelling starts continues to moderate as the Brisbane apartment market rebalances. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BIMygTTR1rg/W0V1sDgFn7I/AAAAAAAArAI/kBXZooy2BQQxTdc9h7P2ikm31-d-5uF1ACEwYBhgL/s640/BA4.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1350"></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Pipeline is enormous</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of residential dwellings units under construction also increased as a result of the Melbourne building boom to more than 224,000, a record high.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-93XBQZlcR8Q/W0V1rWumBwI/AAAAAAAAq_k/WE_s0iLsrJM_prad2slt7pILMs7kag7NACLcBGAs/s640/BA1.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1336"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>You can also see the leap in Victorian attached dwellings under construction to a record level, while Sydney completions are now finally raining in, which should result in a spike in vacancy rates in the harbour city as the year rolls on. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iLo-uVMONQA/W0V1rqS_n-I/AAAAAAAAq_o/UBeacRrqL74NiZEC1WXR7wIxlJL6UMiAwCLcBGAs/s640/BA2.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1351"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Both the value of building work to be done ($71.4 billion) and total building work in the pipeline ($95.8 billion) are at all-time highs in current prices terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big question mark is how many of the buyers of off-the-plan apartments will be unable to settle, especially if more valuations at settlement start to come in at under the contract price. </div>
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Melbourne's population growth at record highs makes for strong demand for housing: Pete Wargent

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<p>The COVID-19 pandemic could cut demand for new housing in Australia by between 129,000 and 232,000 dwellings over the next three years, according to new research by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC).</p>
<p>The NHFIC say that the population growth scenarios have significant consequences for underlying housing demand, or the demand for new housing.</p>
<p>NHFIC chief executive Nathan Dal Bon said, “This research highlights the strong relationship between population growth, increasingly through net overseas migration, and underlying dwelling demand with the outlook for population growth due to COVID-19 highly uncertain.” </p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/21/Population%20change.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The NHFIC have put forward three scenarios with varying population growth forecasts.</p>
<p>Scenario one would see a relatively shallow downturn, which would see student visas return to pre-pandemic levels by 2027 and population growth seeing some recovery towards pre-COVID-19 levels by 2022.</p>
<p>That would see a 129,000 reduction in demand for dwellings compared to pre-pandemic projections.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/21/underlying%20demand.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Scenario two would see a 232,000 reduction in underlying demand compared to pre-pandemic projections.</p>
<p>That would happen if there's a deeper and more prolonged downturn, but with a similar pace of recovery. </p>
<p>The NHFIC say the downturn is consistent with COVID-19 infections continuing to rise globally, which will delay border openings and the economic recovery.</p>
<p>The third scenario uses the population projections produced by the Australian Government’s Centre for Population, consistent with the forecasts the Commonwealth Government used in its most recent budget update.</p>
<p>That would see a 150,000 reduction in underlying demand.</p>
<p>P<span>roperty advisory consultancy</span> Macroplan forecasted the underlying demand for housing for each scenario.</p>
<p>The state, capital city and regional population levels and age distribution are estimated for each year of the projection period, based on ABS estimates of the birth rate, mortality rate, and male and female life expectancy.</p>
<p>Population age is the key driver of living arrangements for individuals, with flow-on effects to housing demand.</p>
<p>The propensity to live in either a family or non-family household, or a non-private dwelling, is then estimated at state, capital city and regional levels. Non-private dwellings are removed from the estimate from this step forward.</p>
<p>The number of households by type are estimated. This includes estimates for family households, including couples with children, couples without children, sole parents and other family households. The number of group households and lone person households are also estimated.</p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Net overseas migration to drive huge drop in new dwelling demand: NHFIC

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Aussie population growth was easing even before the COVID-19 outbreak reached our shores and international and state borders were shut. Annual population growth hit a 13½-year low of 1.39 per cent in December 2019.</p>
<p>Population growth rates eased across most states and territories in 2019, led lower by major cities on Australia’s East Coast. Canberra’s population growth rate at 0.99 per cent was the weakest annual pace in 14 years. And annual growth rates have fallen to near 8-year lows in Victoria and NSW. Queensland’s annual population growth rate of 1.57 per cent was the slowest in 3 years.</p>
<p>That said, the resurgence in iron ore mining activity is luring more Aussies and overseas migrants to Western Australia - posting the strongest annual population growth rate in 5½ years.</p>
<p>Perhaps the economic lockdown in the March quarter, 2020 may see a continuation of the mini baby boom? There were already 305,800 babies born in the year to December - a 2-year high!</p>
<p>With the Federal Government yesterday confirming that Australia’s international borders will likely remain shut until at least 2021 due to virus restrictions, Aussies holidaying at home could provide a vital lifeline for Aussie tourism businesses.</p>
<p>In fact, a record 11.3 million overseas trips were taken by Aussie residents in 2019, up by 247,500 from 2018, according to the ABS, Austrade and Tourism Research Australia (TRA) data. So which states had the most outbound tourists? Unsurprisingly, NSW (34 per cent), Victoria (28 per cent) and Queensland (18 per cent) dominated the proportion of short-term residents returning from overseas journeys in 2019.</p>
<p>And when holidaying, visiting friends and family, or travelling overseas for business, Aussies spent a gargantuan $66.6 billion in other countries. So could this potentially offset the $45.4 billion in lost annual international tourism income? Well, yes. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, Aussies undertook 117.4 million overnight trips, spending $80.7 billion (interstate $45 billion/intrastate $35.7 billion) last year. And while some interstate borders remain closed, it’s worth noting that intrastate travel (trips within a traveller’s state of residence) accounted for around two thirds of all trips in 2019, according to TRA data.</p>
<p>Australia’s state tourism satellite accounts were released by Austrade a couple of weeks ago. The accounts revealed that in financial year 2018/19, growth in Gross Value Added terms (GVA – excludes taxes paid and takes into account subsidies) was highest for Western Australia (up 13.6 per cent), followed by Tasmania (up 11.1 per cent), Victoria (up 10.8 per cent), Northern Territory (up 9.5 per cent), South Australia (up 8.3 per cent), Queensland (up 3.3 per cent) and NSW (up 2.3 per cent). But GVA fell in the ACT by 6.7 per cent. Across all states and territories, domestic overnight visitors account for 57 per cent of total GVA, followed by day trip visitors (13 per cent) and international visitors (30 per cent).</p>
<p>So which Aussie regions could benefit from a lift in interstate or intrastate visitors? Outside of the major capital cities, the NSW North Coast, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Tropical North Queensland, NSW South Coast, Hunter Valley and Australia’s South West regions were amongst the biggest recipients of interstate and intrastate tourism expenditure in 2018/19.</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong></p>
<p><em>Population Statistics – December quarter</em></p>
<p>Australia’s population increased by 349,833 people over the year to December 2019 to 25,522,169 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate eased from 1.43 to 1.39 per cent – the slowest pace in 13½ years. Natural increase contributed 39.8 per cent to the annual lift in population with 60.2 per cent from migration.</p>
<p>Over the year to December, population growth was strongest in Victoria (1.87 per cent), followed by Queensland (1.57 per cent), Western Australia (1.28 per cent), NSW (1.13 per cent), the ACT (0.99 per cent), Tasmania (0.97 per cent), South Australia (0.90 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-0.38 per cent).</p>
<p>By state and territory, the ACT population growth rate at 0.99 per cent was the weakest annual pace in 14 years. Victoria’s population growth rate hit 8-year lows at 1.87 per cent. NSW’s annual population growth rate of 1.13 per cent was the slowest pace in 7½ years. Tasmania’s annual population growth rate of 0.97 per cent was the slowest rate in 2½ years. And Queensland’s annual population growth rate of 1.57 per cent is the slowest in 3 years.</p>
<p>Western Australian annual population growth of 1.28 per cent was the highest in 5½-years. Annual population growth in South Australia (up 0.90 per cent) is just below 5-year highs. Northern Territory lost 900 residents in 2019.</p>
<p>Australia’s population grew by 70,234 people in the December quarter or 0.3 per cent after growing by 94,382 people in the September quarter.</p>
<p>A net total of 210,600 people (3½-year low) migrated to Australia over year to December, down from 220,400 people in the year to September. Migration growth is down from the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p>There were 305,800 babies born in the year to December - a 2-year high - up from 304,400 births over the year to September.</p>
<p>And there were 166,700 deaths in the past year, up by 1,100 on the year to September.</p>
<p>Natural increase (births less deaths) for the year to December was 139,200 to be down by 5.2 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>State Tourism Satellite Accounts – 2018/19</strong></p>
<p>Australia’s state tourism satellite accounts were released by Austrade a couple of weeks ago and revealed that in financial year 2018/19 total tourism consumption was $152 billion, up 6.2 per cent on 2017/18. Almost three quarters of consumption came from domestic tourism, with growth in the domestic sector outpacing international tourism growth in 2018/19.</p>
<p>And growth in Gross Value Added terms (GVA – excludes taxes paid and takes into account subsidies) was highest for Western Australia (up 13.6 per cent), followed by Tasmania (up 11.1 per cent), Victoria (up 10.8 per cent), Northern Territory (up 9.5 per cent), South Australia (up 8.3 per cent), Queensland (up 3.3 per cent) and NSW (up 2.3 per cent). But GVA fell for the ACT by 6.7 per cent. Across all states and territories, domestic overnight visitors account for 57 per cent of total GVA, followed by day trip visitors (13 per cent) and international visitors (30 per cent).</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications of today’s decision?</strong></p>
<p>Our population growth has long been one of the strongest amongst OECD countries. But Australia’s population boom is at an end due to the virus-enforced closure of our international borders.</p>
<p>The Government has recently announced that it expects net overseas migration – a key driver of population growth – to fall by around 30 per cent in 2019/20 and about 85 per cent in 2021/22. CBA Group economists forecast annual population growth to fall to 0.7 per cent over the period – the slowest pace on record. Of course, this will have a significant impact on the labour and housing markets.</p>
<p>Analysis of tourism data shows that we all have a part to play supporting our regional economies. By holidaying locally we can help Aussies in the accommodation, hospitality, travel and retail sectors get back to work.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Population growth hits 13½-year low: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>After weeks of pressuring the government to do more to support temporary migrants who fall outside the criteria for government support, the opposition took a surprising stance in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/do-we-want-migrants-to-return-in-the-same-numbers-the-answer-is-no-20200501-p54p2q" target="_blank">The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald</a> on Sunday.</p>
<p>Labor immigration spokesperson Kristina Keneally called for a rethink of our migration program and asked:</p>
<p>when we restart our migration program, do we want migrants to return to Australia in the same numbers and in the same composition as before the crisis?</p>
<p>She said Australia’s answer should be “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/do-we-want-migrants-to-return-in-the-same-numbers-the-answer-is-no-20200501-p54p2q" target="_blank">no</a>”.</p>
<p>To me, as an economist, the answer should be a resounding “yes”.</p>
<p>Keneally’s piece covered a lot of ground – in addition to making claims about whether or not permanent migrants take the jobs of local workers (<a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/TemporaryMigrationAppendix.pdf" target="_blank">they don’t</a>) she broached the topic of reconsidering our temporary migration intake and held open the possibility of further lowering our permanent intake.</p>
<p>Migration is a complex often convoluted area of policy</p>
<h2>Temporary migrants can’t just turn up</h2>
<p>Ms Keneally’s comments imply that coming to Australia as a temporary migrant is easy.</p>
<p>As the following (rather long) flowchart indicates, it is anything but.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332569/original/file-20200505-83745-19sk25m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/332569/original/file-20200505-83745-19sk25m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/190709_CEDATemporaryMigration_FullReport_FINAL_1.pdf" target="_blank">Ball, J 2019 Improving the current system, Effects of Temporary Migration, CEDA report</a></span></p>
<p>Temporary migration is uncapped: there are no in-principle limits on the number of temporary migrants who can come here. This is by design, so the program can meet the skill needs of our economy at any given time.</p>
<p>However, the government has a number of tools it uses to contain the program and target the right skills.</p>
<p>Keneally makes the point that the arrival of migrants has made it easier for businesses to ignore local talent.</p>
<p>But there are requirements that Australian businesses to tap into the Australian labour market before hiring from overseas.</p>
<p>She is right when she says unions and employers and the government should come together to identify looming skill shortages and deliver training and reskilling opportunities to Australian workers so they can fill Australian jobs.</p>
<p>But no matter how good our foresight and our education and training systems, we will always have needs for external expertise in areas of emerging importance.</p>
<p>Training local workers for projects that suddenly become important can take years, during which those projects would stall.</p>
<h2>Permanent migrants don’t take Australian’s jobs</h2>
<p>Keneally says Australia’s migration program has “hurt many Australian workers, contributing to unemployment, underemployment and low wage growth”.</p>
<p>Australian research finds this to be untrue.</p>
<p>Research I conducted for the <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/TemporaryMigrationAppendix.pdf" target="_parent">Committee for the Economic Development of Australia</a> updating research coducted by Robert Breunig, Nathan Deutscher and Hang Thi To for the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/assets/documents/hilda-bibliography/working-discussion-research-papers/2015/migrant-intake-draft-supplementc-1.pdf" target="_blank">Productivity Commission</a> found that the impact of recent migrants (post 1996) on the employment prospects of Australian-born workers was <a href="https://crawford.anu.edu.au/files/uploads/crawford01_cap_anu_edu_au/2018-05/policy_note_-_immigration.pdf" target="_blank">close to zero</a>.</p>
<p>If anything, the impact on wages and labour force participation of locals was <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/TemporaryMigrationAppendix.pdf" target="_blank">positive</a>.</p>
<h2>Flexibility gives us an edge</h2>
<p>Australia’s migration program is the envy of other countries. Indeed, its success has prompted Britain to consider changing its system to an Australian skills-based system <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-future-skills-based-immigration-system" target="_blank">assessed through points</a>.</p>
<p>Temporary migration is certain to look very different over the next few years than it has over past few. That’s its purpose – to adapt to changing circumstances.</p>
<p>It is difficult to see how a sustained cut in temporary arrivals could assist our recovery.</p>
<p>The bridge to the other side of this downturn will depend on migration. It will depend on us continuing to welcome migrants.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137779/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gabriela-dsouza-782281" target="_blank">Gabriela D'Souza</a>, Affiliate, Monash department of business statistics and econometrics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065" target="_blank">Monash University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-slowing-australias-population-growth-really-the-best-way-out-of-this-crisis-137779" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Is slowing Australia's population growth really the best way out of this crisis?

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Demographic trends</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A quick break from the Coronavirus news which is evidently usurping the planet!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS reported that the capital cities population of Australia increased by +303,100 in FY 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Greater Sydney, which includes the Central Coast, increased by +87,100 or +1.7 per cent, and remained the most populated city at 5.31 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, Melbourne grew at the fastest pace, up by +113,500 or +2.3 per cent to 5.08 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As in previous years the densest locations included parts of inner-city Melbourne, Sydney's Potts Point-Woolloomooloo, and Ultimo-Pyrmont.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane's population increased quickly too, at +2.1 per cent or +52,600, to increase to 2.51 million.<br><br>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YZHXmPmN8rA/XnsDFu-mUhI/AAAAAAAA04c/9nd1a1rjcTkeSzTb4O3YdWMvXjSkJ6pVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/ABS.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YZHXmPmN8rA/XnsDFu-mUhI/AAAAAAAA04c/9nd1a1rjcTkeSzTb4O3YdWMvXjSkJ6pVwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/ABS.jpg" width="640" height="346" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="665"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: ABS</em></span></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Capital cities accounted for 79 per cent of population growth over the financial year, reported the ABS, and some 17 million Aussies now live in the capital cities.</div>
<p><br><span>Immigration will effectively be paused in 2020 due to the...well, you know what!</span><br><br><span><br></span></p>
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Capital cites population up 303,000 in FY2019, but paused in 2020: Pete Wargent

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<p class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">GUEST OBSERVATION</span></p>
<p class="legacy"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px;">The idea that we should decentralise our population has come up many times in Australia. Recently, the National Farmers’ Federation president pushed the notion, </span>calling for a shift to the regions<span style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.15999984741211px; color: #333333;">. </span>And the premise is this: city living is unpleasant. Roads are jammed, housing is expensive and it’s all so much nicer out in the country. We need to “spread out”.</p>
<p>We reject this conclusion. Regional centres certainly must play a role in accommodating our population growth, but for now it’ll be a modest role.</p>
<p>The more immediate need is to focus on improving conditions in our major cities. Our smaller towns matter, but we can’t neglect the urgent need to get better at doing the bigger ones right.</p>
<p>Our cities <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Growing-Victorias-Potential-April-2019.pdf" target="_blank">are growing very rapidly</a>. The fastest growth is in Melbourne, which <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0" target="_blank">added 119,400 residents in 2017-18</a>. That’s nearly as many extra people as the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/701?opendocument" target="_blank">entire population of Darwin</a> in a single year. This rapid growth doesn’t need to mean more traffic, ugliness or stratospheric housing prices and rents – if we confront a difficult truth.</p>
<p><strong>A dirty word in Australia</strong></p>
<p>The truth is we’re just really ordinary at <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-density-matters-but-what-does-it-mean-58977" target="_blank">urban density</a>. It’s so poorly executed in Australian cities that it has become a dirty word in local politics.</p>
<p>Urban density targets remain low in planning policies for many states. It’s often set at around <a href="https://cur.org.au/project/national-liveability-report/" target="_blank">15 dwellings per hectare</a>. In practice, <a href="https://cur.org.au/project/national-liveability-report/" target="_blank">even lower density is delivered</a>.</p>
<p>Australians tend to think of density as living in high-rise tiny apartments. Drop the “d-word” at your local pub and see how the term “shoebox” or “vertical slum” quickly follows.</p>
<p>The irony is that the very thing that makes a getaway to central Paris or Barcelona so attractive is what many Australian city residents revile at home. The places we visit and admire are really quite dense.</p>
<p>Our estimates based on <a href="https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/dyb/dybsets/2015.pdf" target="_blank">UN figures</a> suggest Paris averages around 213 people per hectare and Barcelona 156. (By contrast, Melbourne averages <a href="https://cur.org.au/project/national-liveability-report/" target="_blank">38 people per hectare and Sydney around 50</a>.)</p>
<p>It’s higher-density living that makes their streets and public spaces buzz. But, importantly, this density is achieved through a combination of well-designed mid-rise apartments (roughly six storeys) close to shops, services and public transport. This gives residents the best of both worlds: cities that are <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967" target="_blank">liveable</a> and <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/density-has-to-be-likeable/" target="_blank">likeable</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315192/original/file-20200213-10980-7qrqy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315192/original/file-20200213-10980-7qrqy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="caption">A Barcelona streetscape with bike racks: a picture of high-density liveability.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.flickr.com/photos/walkingsf/18601748360" target="_blank">Eric Fischer/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a></span></p>
<p><strong>A failure of planning</strong></p>
<p>Past failed experiments in density have made it difficult to replicate overseas examples locally. The great Australian dream of owning a quarter-acre block and the stigma around density persist with reason. In Melbourne, for example, rapid high-rise development in the last decade has delivered large numbers of very small apartments, in some cases of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbournes-highrises-riddled-with-bad-apartments-20140613-zs7c9" target="_blank">poor quality and lacking natural light and ventilation</a>.</p>
<p>Very modest investment in public transport makes things worse, as new residents try to cram onto <a href="http://theconversation.com/crowded-trains-planning-focus-on-cars-misses-new-apartment-impacts-116514" target="_blank">services that haven’t kept pace with growth</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/of-all-the-problems-our-cities-need-to-fix-lack-of-car-parking-isnt-one-of-them-116179" target="_blank">Car parking</a>, however, is usually mandated. These planning rules mean the price of new apartments includes the expense of multiple floors of parking, and streetscapes are peppered with vehicle crossover ramps.</p>
<p>Without adequate public transport, roads fill with cars, stoking resident opposition to further infill development. The roads and parking these cars need occupy valuable space, which could be better used for <a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-cities-need-greening-to-stay-healthy-and-liveable-75840" target="_blank">trees and urban greening</a>. Green space is <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-13/climate-warning-over-heat-island-effect-as-city-greenery-decline/11923890" target="_blank">often overlooked</a> in the haste to accommodate rapid population growth, yet it’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1353829218307780" target="_blank">essential for community health and well-being</a> and for reducing urban heat island effects.</p>
<p>Handling population growth doesn’t require us to move to Tamworth or Toowoomba, but it will require some really important changes in our urban development priorities. There has to be a much stronger focus on quality and aesthetics to <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-cut-urban-sprawl-we-need-quality-infill-housing-displays-to-win-over-the-public-63930" target="_blank">win back public support for infill development</a>. It’s also going to take commitment to lift density targets in key planning policies.</p>
<p>Plan Melbourne’s 2017 <a href="/news">refresh</a>, for instance, has moved to a goal of “over 20 dwellings per hectare”. It follows the recommendations of <a href="https://ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12966-017-0621-9" target="_blank">research</a> in allowing higher densities in high-activity areas such as activity or town centres. However, it will take time to implement this change in existing and new areas across the city.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315198/original/file-20200213-11040-vmlu5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315198/original/file-20200213-11040-vmlu5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="caption">Reducing car-dominated spaces creates more people-friendly places, as shown here in Basel, Switzerland.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dylanpassmore/10577659514/in/photolist-h7HgDU-vwaxHG-8eHXd1-8eJaxE-8eJ4gb-8eEDP6-8eENjM-vwGYZV-28P7D7q-XtaXGf-a7eeoe-8eERHV-8eJ9V1-9hpDid-8eEPh6-8eEHNF-8eJ9n7-bmgZKq-gs94sU-8eJa3C-a4JC3B-8eEMZv-8eJaoo-oiA3Bo-8eHVt1-8nGm2j-8eJ88y-8eJ98U-8eHVY1-h8b49R-a7edx2-Ywzi4B-8eJaDs-8eJ9eG-8eEEGr-bzc3F2-cw3c4f-8eENC8-8eEQwF-8eJ6Rf-a4JBSM-bmh1kA-8eJ5Ty-a7efHi-8eHSJS-a8Umxw-8KLwbc-bzbS9H-bmguBb-Jgn8Xr" target="_blank">Dylan Passmore/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC</a></span></p>
<p>Density must be complemented by suitable streetscapes and infrastructure. This will require a significant rethink of the role of the car in urban areas, greater investment in public transport, and a reallocation of large areas of streetscape space to greenery and pedestrians.</p>
<p>That’s a big ask, but it’s worth it, because density really doesn’t have to mean “dogbox”.</p>
<p><strong>Dutch show change is possible</strong></p>
<p>Take a (<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@53.2231784,6.5600609,3a,75y,254.66h,91.32t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sshMD7V4VHGDn4q1zEu_CpA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656" target="_blank">digital</a>) walk around a <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-the-compassionate-city-to-overcome-built-in-biases-and-help-us-live-better-92726" target="_blank">woonerf</a></em> neighbourhood in the Netherlands and you’ll notice on-street parking is scant, the speed limit is around 15km/h and plentiful road space is allocated to tree planting and garden beds. Kids play in the street under the watchful eye of long-term locals. You don’t notice the dense apartments around you because there are trees in the way and there’s a lot to see at ground level.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314169/original/file-20200207-27552-pm194k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><span class="caption">A <em>woonerf</em> (Dutch for ‘living area’) in Amsterdam. We estimate this area has a residential density of over 100 dwellings per hectare.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thami Croeser</span></span></p>
<p>Remarkably, it was only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/05/amsterdam-bicycle-capital-world-transport-cycling-kindermoord" target="_blank">in the 1970s</a> that the Dutch started to move away from car-oriented planning to deliver this kind of urban design, which puts people and place first. With courageous policy change, we could have this in Australia too.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131304/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/thami-croeser-729067" target="_blank">Thami Croeser</a>, Research Officer, Centre for Urban Research, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063" target="_blank">RMIT University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lucy-gunn-146721" target="_blank">Lucy Gunn</a>, Research Fellow, Healthy Liveable Cities Group, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063" target="_blank">RMIT University</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-need-to-give-up-on-crowded-cities-we-can-make-density-so-much-better-131304" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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No need to give up on crowded cities, we can make density so much better

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The growth of the human population over the last 70 years has exploded from 2 billion to nearly 8 billion, with a compounding net growth of over 30,000 per day. We all breathe out carbon dioxide with every breath. That equates to about 140 billion CO₂ breaths every minute. Isn’t it logical that atmospheric carbon will continue to increase with the birth rate regardless of what we do about fossil fuel reduction?</p>
<p>This question touches on the core of our impact on planetary change. It highlights the exponential growth in the human population, but also homes in on the potential direct input of carbon dioxide from humans, through respiration.</p>
<p>As I explain in more detail below, our breathing does not contribute to the net accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But population growth, combined with an increase in consumption, is now seen as the <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2015-01-15-new-planetary-dashboard-shows-increasing-human-impact" target="_blank">main driver of change in the Earth system</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Humans: a moment in geological time</strong></p>
<p>Earth has been around for 4.56 billion years. The <a href="https://www.livescience.com/1804-greatest-mysteries-life-arise-earth" target="_blank">earliest evidence for life on Earth</a> comes from fossilised mats of cyanobacteria that are about 3.7 billion years old.</p>
<p>From around 700 million years ago, and certainly from 540 million years ago, life exploded into its present myriad forms, from molluscs to lung fish, reptiles, insects, plants, fishes and mammals – culminating in hominids and finally <em>Homo sapiens</em>. Genetic studies suggest <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/overview-of-hominin-evolution-89010983/" target="_blank">hominids evolved from primates around 6 million years ago</a>, with the oldest hominid fossil dating from 4.4 million years ago in East Africa.</p>
<p>Our species appeared around 200,000 to 300,000 years ago, a blink of an eye in geological terms. From Africa, <em>Homo sapiens</em> migrated through Europe and Asia and spread across the world, at lightning speeds.</p>
<p>Part of the question is about a putative link between human biological functions and climate. <em>Homo sapiens</em> is <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1001127" target="_blank">one of more than 28 million living species today</a>, and some <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-011-5874-9_7" target="_blank">35 billion species that have ever lived on Earth</a>. There has always been a link between life and Earth’s atmosphere, and perhaps the clearest indicator is oxygen.</p>
<p><strong>Life, carbon and climate</strong></p>
<p>Cyanobacteria were the first organisms to master photosynthesis and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.pnas.org/content/96/20/10955" target="_blank">began adding oxygen to Earth’s early atmosphere</a>, producing levels of 2% by 1 billion years ago. Today oxygen levels are at 20%.</p>
<p>While people inhale oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide (billions of tonnes each year), this does <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2009/08/are-you-heating-the-planet-when-you-breathe" target="_blank">not represent new carbon in the atmosphere</a>, but rather recycled carbon that had been taken up by the animals and plants we eat. Furthermore, the hard parts of human skeletons are potential carbon stores, if buried sufficiently deep.</p>
<p>There is a constant cycling of carbon between geological, oceanographic and biological processes. <em>Homo sapiens</em> is part of this carbon cycle that plays out at the Earth’s surface. Like all living organisms, we derive the carbon we need from our immediate environment and give it up again through breathing, living and dying.</p>
<p>Carbon is only added to the atmosphere if it is taken out of long-term geological stores such as carbon-rich sediments, oil, natural gas and coal.</p>
<p><strong>Planetary impact of humans</strong></p>
<p>But the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth" target="_blank">remarkable growth in human population</a> is surely the critical issue. Ten thousand years ago, there were 1 million people on Earth. By 1800, there were 1 billion, 3 billion by 1960 and almost 8 billion today.</p>
<p>When these figures are plotted on a graph, the growth line looks almost vertical from the 1800s onwards. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/" target="_blank">Population growth may eventually flatten out</a>, but only at around 10-11 billion.</p>
<p>Alongside the unprecedented population growth of humans has been the <a href="https://www.ipbes.net/news/million-threatened-species-thirteen-questions-answers" target="_blank">loss of many non-human species</a> (10,000 extinctions per million populations per year, or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds" target="_blank">60% of animal populations since 1970</a>), the rapid loss of wilderness habitat and consequent growth in farmed land, over-fishing (with up to <a href="http://blogs.edf.org/edfish/2012/07/11/fao-reports-87-of-the-worlds-fisheries-are-overexploited-or-fully-exploited/" target="_blank">87% of fisheries fully exploited</a>), and a staggering growth in global car numbers (from zero in the 1920s to 1 billion in 2013 and a projected <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-number-of-cars-worldwide-is-set-to-double-by-2040" target="_blank">2 billion by 2040</a>).</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/copper-statistics-and-information" target="_blank">world production of copper</a> is an instructive proxy for human global impacts. As with many commodity curves, the trend from 1900, and particularly from the 1950s, is exponential. In 1900 around half-a-million tonnes of copper was produced worldwide. Today it is 18 million tonnes per year, with no sign of lowering consumption rates. Copper is the feedstock for much of modern-day and future green technologies.</p>
<p>Most parts of the world now experience material consumption as never before. But serious inequality remains, with over <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day" target="_blank">3 billion living on less than US$5.50 a day</a>, and a <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/just-8-men-own-same-wealth-half-world" target="_blank">tiny percentage who own so much</a>.</p>
<p>Some argue that it is not the numbers of people on Earth that count, but rather the way we consume and share. Whatever the politics and economics, the gross consumption level of billions of humans is, surely, the main cause of planetary change, especially since 1950. Present-day atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are one of many symptoms of human impact.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126671/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><strong>Michael Petterson</strong>, Professor of Geology, Auckland University of Technology.</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-how-growth-in-population-and-consumption-drives-planetary-change-126671" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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Climate explained: how growth in population and consumption drives planetary change

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<p>Internal migration loss has seen Sydney slip behind Melbourne in terms of overall population growth, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. </p>
<p>The valuation firm took a look at what's bringing new residents to different residential markets or, conversely, driving them away. </p>
<p>According to the last census, between 2016 and 2017, Sydney’s population grew by 101,600 people, an increase of around 2%.  Of that, an increase of 84,700 came from net overseas migration, 35,000 from natural increase, while net internal migration provided a loss of 18,100 people (source: ABS).</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/abs%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</em></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/abs%201.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Sydney’s population growth has therefore predominantly been driven by overseas migration. </p>
<p>In fact, the overall total net overseas migration for Australia between 2016 and 2017 was 262,489 (source: ABS), meaning that 38.7% of that growth can be attributed to Sydney.</p>
<p>The HTW report suggests Sydney is a desirable location for overseas immigrants due to employment opportunities, education facilities and other services and the opportunity to move into an area with a population of similar nationality or culture.</p>
<p>The majority of people who leave Sydney for other parts of Australia go to other parts of New South Wales and Melbourne (source: ABS).</p>
<p>Newcastle, Wollongong and regional New South Wales offer plenty of opportunities for those looking for a sea or tree change, either in retirement or for those looking for a more affordable lifestyle, particularly lower cost housing, or to escape Sydney’s bulging transport and road systems.</p>
<p>"Those areas of Sydney that have seen the largest increase in net internal migration are the growth centres in the south-west and north-west of the city, which have experienced massive new housing growth over recent years through land releases," the valuation firm said. </p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/abs%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </em></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/26/abs%202.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The report suggests within greater western Sydney there has been a ripple effect of buyers pushing further west in order to secure more property bang for their buck as urban sprawl continues.</p>
<p>"This is evident within the new land release areas on the outer fringes of western Sydney such as Box Hill and Austral, with a number of local young families and upgraders buying affordable house and land packages or building their dream home for a lot less than the equivalent (and also older) products a few kilometres east," the valuation firm added. </p>
<p>As has been the case over the past few years, infrastructure has been a massive drawcard for many people in north-west Sydney resulting in people moving to the area who may not have considered it before.</p>
<p>Suburbs such as Cherrybrook, which was often in the shadows of its more sought after neighbour West Pennant Hills, is now bucking the more stable market trend as seen with a recent result of $2,336,000 for a quality built, 25-year-old, original dwelling at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-cherrybrook-131573546" target="_blank"> 8 Rothbury Place</a> (pictured below).</p>
<p>The home comprises four bedrooms, timber kitchen, formal lounge, rumpus room and family living area. </p>
<p>It's located just a short walk to the new metro station.</p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/cherrybrook.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>This infrastructure linking the north-west to Chatswood allows for families to send their children to north shore schools without having to pay north shore prices for houses.</p>
<p>"In the outer west, we’ve seen a number of Penrith residents moving to the lower mountains area and the lower mountains area moving to the upper mountains area and the upper mountains residents moving over the hill to Hartley and beyond.</p>
<p>"We’ve also completed valuations for families selling up and moving to regional towns such as Bathurst. This is becoming more popular as technology is allowing people to work more remotely or even allowing certain occupations to work full time from home," the valuation firm said. </p>
<p>Another example of population movement is in Werombi, a small tightly held semi-rural village located on the outskirts of metropolitan Sydney.</p>
<p>Local agents have been reporting a trend of buyers shifting further west for rural lifestyle holdings given the more eastern rural fringe areas, such as Rossmore, are part of the Sydney Regional Growth Centres Plan. This has seen a spike in interest and rising values for the better part of the last two to three year period.</p>
<p>Up until 2017, this was popular in the north-west of Sydney with Schofields residents on rural lifestyle holdings being bought out by developers and then moving further out to Oakville and Maraylya to escape the chaos of development and hopefully catch the development wave again decades later.</p>
<p>"The great migration of baby boomers is no more apparent than on Sydney’s north shore.</p>
<p>"Baby boomers occupying larger homes on the upper north shore suburbs such as Wahroonga and Turramurra have been selling up and moving to the lower north shore to settle in smaller luxury two and three-bedroom apartments in suburbs such as Mosman," the valuation firm stated.</p>
<p>The existing dwellings the downgraders leave behind are generally purchased by local upgraders or returning expats with younger families wanting to take advantage of the north shore’s quality schools and quiet neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>Over the years these homes are renovated to suit current demands and no doubt when the time comes these owners too will migrate east to the lower north shore to downsize, keeping the tradition alive.</p>
<p>"Interestingly the suburb with the largest negative net internal migration, Parramatta-Rosehill, was the area with the largest positive net overseas migration.</p>
<p>"This would suggest existing residents are moving to other areas, potentially to upgrade from a unit to a house, with new residents from overseas filling the void," the valuation firm said. </p>
<p>Auburn, Campsie, Lakemba and Kingsford also have a high percentage of unit stock and would indicate that people are looking to upgrade from units to houses but can’t necessarily afford to do that in the suburb in which they currently reside.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/abs%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </em></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/abs%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>"It is no surprise to see that those suburbs with the highest net internal migration are those that have also experienced significant unit construction in recent years.</p>
<p>"This has provided overseas immigrants the opportunity to get more affordable housing in well positioned suburbs, close to major transport links and services," the valuation firm commented. </p>
<p>Many of these suburbs are also located close to educational facilities which are also a major pull factor for overseas students into these areas.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/26/abs%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </em></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/abs%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Chippendale is a small inner city suburb located at the southern end of the CBD and adjoins Redfern to the south.</p>
<p>The suburb was long known for being an older style run down location, however the area has been transformed in recent years, particularly since the opening of the Central Park development by Frasers Property and Sekisui House.</p>
<p>At the 2016 ABS census, there were 8,617 residents in Chippendale with approximately 27% of people born in China and 21% of people born in Australia.</p>
<p>In contrast, at the 2011 census there were 4,057 residents, approximately 38% of which were born in Australia.</p>
<p>During 2016 to 2017, the Chippendale and Redfern area saw a further net overseas migration of 6% (1,418 people) and this trend appears to be continuing.</p>
<p>The report notes a large portion of residents in Chippendale are also students drawn to the area by surrounding educational establishments such as the University of Technology Sydney, University of Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia and TAFE campuses.</p>
<p>"The essence of the area is changing to supply the demands of the increasing population of students and overseas migrants. This can be seen with the influx of cafés, restaurants and everyday services such as dry cleaning and medical centres," the valuation firm said.</p>
<p>There are some remaining sections of the suburb that still have original terrace style dwellings, however the majority of the suburb has been developed to provide high density style apartment living which is typically required by this younger demographic.</p>
<p>Modern developments such as Central Park usually include common facilities such as swimming pools, gyms, communal areas and concierge services.</p>
<p>Infrastructure and transport routes are established around here with Central train station and multiple bus stops being close by, as are educational facilities, the CBD and other services and amenities.</p>
<p>A current offering is a two bedroom apartment located within Central Park priced at $1.56 million.</p>
<p>The C-803 apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-chippendale-130992034" target="_blank">83 O'Connor Street</a> (pictured below) comes with two bedrooms, two bathrooms, living area with timber flooring and 29 square metre balcony. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/26/central%20park%202.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The suburb of Chatswood, on Sydney’s lower north shore, has undergone major changes over the past decade.</p>
<p>Chatswood is approximately ten kilometres north of the Sydney CBD and comprises a mix of major commercial development, high density residential development and surrounding detached residential housing on relatively large blocks of land.</p>
<p>Chatswood has a high percentage of Chinese residents, creating a prominent Chinese cultural community.</p>
<p>This is especially evident around its CBD with a vast amount of Chinese businesses, Chinese restaurants and newly developed high-rise developments  predominantly occupied by Chinese residents.</p>
<p>Chatswood is a prime example of a suburb developed to meet the demands of these residents who desire central high density living with access to public transport.</p>
<p>"To meet these demands, we have seen a relatively recent major overhaul of Chatswood train station in conjunction with previously non-existent, high density residential development in and around Chatswood train station.</p>
<p>"In meeting the demands of the demographic in Chatswood, we have seen an increase in population, primarily the consequence of a greater supply of residential units. As Chatswood has continued to develop, demand for housing has been driven not only by the improved infrastructure, but also the desire by the Chinese demographic to be within proximity of the familiarities of the Chinese culture, of which Chatswood has an abundance," the valuation firm commented. </p>
<p>According to the ABS, as at 31 August 2018, the estimated population growth in the Chatswood (East)-Artarmon area rose by 3.1% over 2016 to 2017.</p>
<p>The estimated population growth in the Chatswood (West)-Lane Cove North area rose by 3.6% over 2016 to 2017.</p>
<p>"Although we are currently seeing less residential development, infrastructure continues to improve to meet the population growth. In addition to the major overhaul of Chatswood train station as mentioned above, Chatswood has a brand new metro station, part of the Sydney Metro Northwest project, connecting Rouse Hill to Chatswood via Castle Hill and Epping.</p>
<p>"The completion of this long-awaited project opens up the southern section of Chatswood and we expect to see this area experience major development in the near future, compounding the already evident population growth in the area." </p>
<p>A three bedroom apartment located 550 metres to Chatswood station has recently beed sold for $1.41 million.</p>
<p>Located within catchment area of Chatswood Public School, the apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-nsw-chatswood-131241814" target="_blank">37/3-5 Freeman Road</a> (pictured below) spreads across two levels with 180 degree views.</p>
<p>It comes with three bedrooms, open plan living and dining area, gourmet kitchen and covered entertaining balcony. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/26/chatswood.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>With Sydney’s population expected to increase to around 6.5 million by 2036 (source: ABS), it is likely that net overseas migration will continue to be the major driver in this growth.</p>
<p>"This population growth will predominantly be in western Sydney but will also see some more established inner suburbs continue to experience urban consolidation through more unit development, as they continue to be the location of choice for those immigrating from overseas.</p>
<p>"This will continue to put further stress on roads, transport and services in established areas while newer areas will require new infrastructure." </p>
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