<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Population Growth

<html><body>
<p>Hobart’s increasing population, boosted by inward interstate migration as the economy improves, was putting pressure on the rental market, independent economist Saul Eslake suggests.</p>
<p>The vice chancellor’s fellow at the University of Tasmania told Fairfax Media there was a lot more confidence in business.</p>
<p>"There is quite a lot of commercial construction and tourism is also doing well,” he said.</p>
<p>“We’ve had an increase in people wanting to live in Hobart … but on the supply side there hasn’t been a great deal in building approvals.”</p>
<p>Eslake said the biggest shortage was for apartments, which make up 8.6 per cent of dwellings in greater Hobart, according to the latest census data.</p>
<div>Demand for rentals saw Hobart’s vacancy rate drop to a record low of 0.3 per cent by December, according to SQM Research, the tightest rental market of any capital city.</div>
<p>The Domain Rental Report shows it also has the country’s highest rental yield for houses – at 5.34 per cent for the December quarter – and the third highest yield for apartments, at 5.52 per cent. </p>
<p>Ten new townhouses - two bedrooms with 92 sqm space - <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-tas-brighton-127255922" target="_blank">are being constructed at Brighton</a> with prices from $215,000.</p>
<p>They have a suggested $270 a week rental prospect, according to Patrick Nosier at First National.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-tas-rokeby-127253906" target="_blank">three rendered 2010-built townhouse units</a> listed at $220,000 plus at Rokeby.</p>
<p><span>Aspect Building Solutions is building t</span>wo luxury townhouses in the heart of Hobart.</p>
<p>Set over three floors, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-tas-hobart-127173286" target="_blank">the units of 12 Warwick Street </a>are being marketed by Harcourts as "representing an unmatched level of sophistication, exclusivity and luxury."</p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Hobart doesn't have the required new townhouse stock: Saul Eslake

<html><body>
<div>The latest population growth figures put an altogether different slant on Australia's assumed apartment gluts. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Melbourne, the risks have receded dramatically, at least for now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, with the state's estimated populated growth apparently tracking at the highest level in six decades, it would be all but impossible for the market to become 'oversupplied' until this rate of growth in the headcount slows down. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/29/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Now Queensland <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">really</span></strong> went on an apartment construction mission from 2014 forth, to the extent that there is a now a clear oversupply of units in some locations, particularly inner city Brisbane, with more supply still to come online. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures show that although the glut will have an impact for some time to come, the market will right itself eventually.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, the reacceleration of population growth to +75,400 per annum is exactly what Queensland's housing markets needed to help absorb the stock, while new apartment starts are now understandably and visibly slowing to a crawl. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/29/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In Hobart, commencements have yet to pick up dramatically, despite electric growth in house prices and rents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Because the Hobart market demands houses and not apartments, in theory the supply response should come much more quickly (apartment projects can take ages to build, comparatively speaking).<br><br>And we know from previous cycles that the market has the potential to deliver much greater supply - but to date it hasn't happened.<br><br>Developers from the mainland are not that keen to get involved, perhaps, given the logistical challenges.<br><br>I haven't been down to Tassie for a while - and I got seasick when I last went - so I have no feel whatsoever for activity on the ground. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyer demand</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I noted here previously that the 2016 Census confirmed an enormous surge in 25-34 year olds.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Due in part to housing affordability challenges, many are not yet forming households, though they might begin to do so if capital city apartment prices do ever slide in any meaningful way.<br><br>
</div>
<div>ANZ research this week suggested that there is significant latent first homebuyer demand, and ANZ believes that this could potentially keep an effective floor under prices, which is what I concluded from the Census figures back in June too.</div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Australia's assumed apartment gluts

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Population estimates</p>
<p>Population: Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years. </p>
<p>Big quarterly increase: Australia's population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter - the biggest quarterly increase in nine years.</p>
<p>Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).</p>
<p>The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>In Victoria, population growth is the fastest in 57 years. In NSW, population growth is the fastest in eight years. And In Tasmania you have to go back six years to find a faster rate of population growth. In fact in all states and territories other than South Australia and Northern Territory, population growth is lifting.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>In some regions, it is natural increase – more babies being born (less the number of deaths) – that is driving population growth. In other regions it is immigration. But overall the stronger rate of population growth is boosting spending, demand for infrastructure, demand for homes, and overall economic growth.</p>
<p>Businesses need to dissect the figures and drill down further to find out which regions are growing the faster, Because those regions present some of the best opportunities</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Population Statistics:</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years</p>
<p>Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).</p>
<p>Australia’s population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter – the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. </p>
<p>A total of 231,900 people migrated to Australia over year to March, up from 209,000 in the year to December and the biggest annual gain in four years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p>There were 302,500 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 312,200 babies born in the year to December 2012.</p>
<p>Population growth in Victoria is 19.7 per cent above the decade average and population growth in NSW is 14.3 per cent above the decade average. In Tasmania population growth is 8.1 per cent higher than the decade average.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.16.21%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.16.21%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Why is the data important?</p>
<p>Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.</p>
<p>What are the implications?</p>
<p>There are more people coming to Australia and more babies being born. Overall, population is rising, adding to demand for a raft of businesses across a range of industry sectors. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.17.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.17.40%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The lift in the growth of the population and the physical population numbers, lifts demand for infrastructure, thus boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies. </p>
<p>While economic growth is poised to lift over the coming year, CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged until late in 2018. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

<html><body>
<p>Australia’s population is booming, with some regions growing by more than 50 percent over the last five years.</p>
<p>In celebration of its upcoming 10th anniversary, <a href="https://www.nearmap.com.au" target="_blank">Nearmap</a>, the Aussie aerial imagery company, has paired its high-res aerial imagery with new Australian Bureau of Statistics data, revealing the country's rapid growth through before and after images of the top 10 fastest growing regions in Australia.</p>
<p>As businesses and local governments work to stay ahead of housing and infrastructure demand, it is becoming increasingly important to fully utilise technology to save time, keep costs down and ultimately speed up delivery of large-scale, long-term developments projects, like those pictured below.</p>
<p>Rob Newman, Nearmap CEO, said from the ground it can be difficult to see the pace at which Australia is growing.</p>
<p>"But when you look at it from the air, you can observe in incredible detail the change occurring across our country, even just in the last five years," he said.</p>
<p>“Nearmap captures, manages and delivers the most frequently-updated high res aerial imagery in the world.</p>
<p>“And by having access to the most up to date information, businesses and government agencies are able to make more informed and strategic decisions, critical for effectively planning and managing urban development as Australia’s population continues to grow.”</p>
<p>Below are the top 10 regions around Australia that have experienced the highest percentage of population growth between 2011 and 2016.</p>
<table style="width: 411px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>Order</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Region name</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>2011 population</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>2016 population</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>Growth</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>State</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Serpentine – Jarrahdale</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>17,805</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>26,873</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>50%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>WA</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Gungahlin</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>47,303</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>71,142</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>50%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>ACT</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>3</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Melbourne City</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>93,612</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>135,969</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>45%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>VIC</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>4</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>North Lakes</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>51,568</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>71,560</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>38%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>QLD</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>5</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Wyndham</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>166,020</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>221,895</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>33%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>WA</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>6</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Kwinana</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>29,227</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>38,918</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>33%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>WA</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>7</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Casey – South</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>128,361</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>168,177</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>31%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>VIC</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>8</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Ormeau – Oxenford</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>94,056</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>120,883</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>28%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>QLD</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>9</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Whittlesea – Wallan</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>166,907</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>213,708</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>28%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>VIC</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>10</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Bringelly – Green Valley</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>80,339</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>102,811</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>28%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>NSW</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Serpentine - Byford December 2012</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.10.24%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Byford June 2016</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.11.19%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Gungahlin - May 2012</span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.12.40%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Gungahlin April 2017</span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.22.31%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> <span>Melbourne City - Carlton November 2011</span></p>
<h1 class="filename"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.25.35%20AM.png" alt=""></h1>
<p> </p>
<p>Carlton May 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.26.16%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>QLD North Lakes</p>
<p>Griffin June 2011</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.27.28%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Griffin June 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.28.12%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Wyndham Vale Victoria</p>
<p>January 2012</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.29.12%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Wyndham Vale February 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.30.03%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Western Australia</p>
<p>Wandi June 2013</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.31.02%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Wandi June 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.31.43%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Cranbourne East August 2011</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.33.50%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Cranbourne East March 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.34.23%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Queensland </p>
<p>Ormeau Hills May 2010</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.35.36%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Ormeau Hills June 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.36.30%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Victoria</p>
<p>Doreen December 2010</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.37.48%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Doreen February 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.38.21%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>New South Wales</p>
<p>Cobbitty February 2010</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.39.33%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Cobbitty April 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.40.18%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
</body></html>

New images reveal Australia’s 10 fastest growing regions

<html><body>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/77403/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Western Sydney is one of the fastest-growing regions in Australia. It’s also one of the most culturally and linguistically diverse, as a key arrival point for refugees and new migrants when they first settle in Australia.</p>
<p>Various public figures and media outlets have connected asylum-seeker intake and immigration to traffic congestion and queues at hospitals in Western Sydney. </p>
<p>However, this kind of reaction can pin the blame for infrastructure and affordability problems on culturally diverse populations who may have already lived in Australia for many years, if not several generations.</p>
<h2>Growth from international and domestic migration</h2>
<p>Greater Western Sydney includes Blacktown, the Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Fairfield Hawkesbury, Liverpool, Parramatta, Penrith, the Hills Shire and Wollondilly.</p>
<p>We examined census data compiled by WESTIR Ltd, a non-profit research organisation based in Western Sydney, partly funded by the NSW Department of Family and Community Services. These data showthat Greater Western Sydney’s population increased by 9.8% between 2011 and 2016. Over the decade from 2006 to 2016, it grew by 16%. </p>
<p>About 55% of those living there were born in Australia, and about 39% where born elsewhere (the remainder did not state their place of birth). Most put English or Australian as their first response when asked about their ancestry.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.35.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.35.36%20AM.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR LTD analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>New births are slightly down in the region, meaning growth is coming from other sources. This includes new international migration arrivals, but also incoming residents from other parts of New South Wales and interstate.</p>
<p>Greater Western Sydney has long-established cultural and linguistic diversity. The percentage of residents born overseas has increased from 34.1% in 2006 to 38.7% in 2016. Overall, the west accounts for 50.2% of the overseas-born population for the whole of metropolitan Sydney.</p>
<p>Reasoned debates on sustainable migration intake levels are a crucial part of discussions of urban and regional growth. There are valid criticisms of “Big Australia” policies, based on resource and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>But while the number of new arrivals settling in Western Sydney has increased steadily since the second world war, with a significant jump over the last decade reflecting accelerated skilled migration policies to fill labour shortages, the majority of overseas-born living in the region are long-term settlers who have been in Australia for ten years or more. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.37.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.37.27%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/2016" target="_blank">WESTIR analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<h2>Increasing diversity does not always mean more new migrant settlers</h2>
<p>The data show that 64% of Western Sydney residents have at least one parent born overseas. This is greater than the number of those born overseas. This correlates with national data indicating that Australian-born second-generation migrant residents outnumber those born outside of Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.38.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.38.46%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>So while critics may look at non-white Western Sydney residents and assume they are recent migrants, what they’re often really seeing is multiple generations of multiculturalism. Most of these people are long-term local residents, not necessarily a sudden influx of new arrivals.</p>
<p>In addition, not all overseas-born residents are permanent settlers. Australia takes far larger numbers of temporary entrants than it has in the past. Most of these temporary visa holders, such as international students and temporary skilled workers, live in major metropolitan areas and their surrounds, like Western Sydney.</p>
<p>While some portion of these populations do stay on longer-term, they are not all permanent settlers who will add to long-term population growth. Net migration figures, which take into account people who depart Australia every year as well as arrive, and exclude short-term visitors, have generally been decreasing over the past six years. </p>
<h2>Who do we define as ‘migrants’?</h2>
<p>New Zealand citizens moving under Trans-Tasman agreements and migrants from the United Kingdom are still among the largest migrant groups in Greater Western Sydney. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.43.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.43.14%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR LTD, using Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>In many local government areas in Western Sydney – such as Wollondilly, the Hills Shire, Penrith, Hawkesbury and Campbelltown – England and/or New Zealand feature in the top five countries of birth of overseas-born residents. </p>
<p>If anxieties about migration and population in Western Sydney are based on genuine sustainability concerns and not xenophobia, why target mostly refugees and non-white migrants? Why focus only on areas with large non-white and non-English-speaking background populations?</p>
<h2>Migrants do use infrastructure, but also drive economic and jobs growth</h2>
<p>It’s never as simple as one new arrival “using up” an allocation of limited resources, whether jobs, housing, or seats on trains. In fact, new arrivals fill the gaps of an ageing workforce, and current migration policies are targeted to favour younger migrants and specific skills shortages.</p>
<p>Western Sydney, like many regions in Australia, has an ageing population. Residents aged 65-74 years increased from 6.2% in 2011 to 7.2% in 2016. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.44.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.44.20%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR Ltd Using Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>Large-scale infrastructure – whether the slated new airport or the Westmead hospital – requires young and often skilled workers.</p>
<p>Nationally, recently arrived overseas-born residents have a lower median age and a higher level of education than Australian-born residents.</p>
<p>Infrastructure problems are also problems of policy, planning and funding, rather than just population numbers. Problems in transport and health infrastructure in Western Sydney cannot be easily solved by reactive anti-immigration attitudes or policies. </p>
<p>Cuts to programs like the humanitarian program or skilled temporary work visas, where the intake numbers remain relatively small as a proportion of the overall population, will not solve those infrastructure problems.</p>
<p>Western Sydney is growing, and with growth comes growing pains. But equating the region’s rich cultural diversity with a population crisis is the wrong message to send.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shanthi-robertson-48422" target="_blank">Shanthi Robertson</a> is </span>Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kristine-aquino-376456" target="_blank">Kristine Aquino</a> is </span>Lecturer in Global Studies, University of Technology Sydney.</p>
<p>Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Blaming migrants won’t solve Western Sydney’s growing pains

<html><body>
<p>A new report from UBS has forecast a slump in house price growth next year, but no crash.</p>
<p>The investment bank's report forecast that the correction would see annual house price growth to fall from 10 per cent now to 7 per cent by the end of 2017.</p>
<p>It will further reduce next year with growth forecast between zero and 3 per cent in 2018.</p>
<p>"We 'called the top' [in April] and now have increased confidence a correction is unfolding, but still don't see a crash," said economists George Tharenou and Scott Haslem.</p>
<p>"Looking ahead, price growth has likely already peaked, and we still see moderation ahead, amid record supply/completions, poor affordability and rising mortgage rates.</p>
<p>"But, we still don't see prices dropping given booming 'people' growth," the UBS economists said.</p>
<p>The economists expect both building commencements and construction activity to have a "sharp downturn until at least the end of 2018, but said the lack of RBA rate hikes "reduces the chance this becomes a crash where commencements plunge to prior cycle lows closer to 130,000 (a year) which would then see a weaker labour market and falling prices". </p>
<p>Last month the UBS chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Scott Haslem announced he was resigning from the investment bank after 19 years.</p>
<p>The internal replacement was named as George Tharenou will be taking over the role from Mr Haslem, who will be pursuing opportunities outside sell-side research, UBS said in a statement.</p>
<p>Mr Tharenou has been at UBS since 2006, and has previously worked in the Reserve Bank of Australia and Queensland Treasury.</p>
</body></html>

UBS says population growth to thwart property prices going backwards

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 372,805 people over the year to December 2016 to 24,385,625 people.</p>
<p>Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.547 percent to 1.553 percent – the fastest population growth in almost three years.</p>
<p>Upward revision: With the release of the latest Census data, population estimates have been revised higher. The initial estimate of Australia’s population in the September quarter was revised up by 87,000.</p>
<p>Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.40 per cent, just short of the June quarter 16 record of 2.42 per cent), followed by the ACT (1.71 per cent), NSW (1.52 per cent), Queensland (1.46 per cent), Western Australia (0.66 per cent), South Australia (0.61 per cent), Tasmania (0.58 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.26 per cent).</p>
<p>Census data: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released a raft of data from the 2016 Census. Of interest, the median mortgage repayment fell 2.5 per cent to $1755 a month in the five years to 2016 while household income lifted 16.4 per cent and family income rose by 17.1 per cent.</p>
<p>The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending. The Census data is important for all businesses in planning new markets.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>Victoria remains the population leader – a position it has for over two years. Before that, you have to go back to 1888 to find a time when Victoria held the position of the state with the fastest population growth. And not only is Victoria’s population growing at near the fastest rate on record, population numbers in the state have been revised up by 87,000.</p>
<p>Population is growing faster than decade averages in Victoria, NSW and Tasmania, underpinning housing demand. Interestingly Tasmania’s population growth rate has almost doubled in less than two years, driving growth for the local economy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.56.16%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.56.16%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Australia’s baby boom continues. A total of 311,000 babies were born over the past year, just below the highest annual total on record. More hospitals and schools will be needed. Hopefully policymakers quickly get across the latest Census data quickly.</p>
<p>There are more people in Australia than previously estimated – in fact 87,000 extra people, requiring an extra 33,000 homes. Most of the “extra” people have been “found” in Victoria. But there are 58,000 fewer people in Western Australia than previously believed.</p>
<p>Amongst some of the interesting Census data released, the median mortgage repayment fell 2.5 per cent to $1,755 a month in the five years to 2016 while household income lifted 16.4 per cent. The data will be closely dissected by investors on a regional basis to gain insights on housing affordability.</p>
<p>The proportion of families renting is now broadly equal to those owning homes outright. This highlights the fact that interest rate decisions now only really interest 32 per cent of the population.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Population Statistics:</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 372,805 people over the year to December 2016 to 24,385,625 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.547 per cent to 1.553 per cent – the fastest population growth in almost three years.</p>
<p>Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.40 per cent, just short of the June quarter 2016 record of 2.42 per cent), followed by the ACT (1.71 per cent), NSW (1.52 per cent), Queensland (1.46 per cent), Western Australia (0.66 per cent), South Australia (0.61 per cent), Tasmania (0.58 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.26 per cent).</p>
<p>Australia’s population grew by 78,397 people over the December quarter.</p>
<p>A total of 209,000 people migrated to Australia over year to December, up from 198,900 in the year to September and the biggest annual gain in three years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p>There were 311,000 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 315,500 babies born in the year to June 2016.</p>
<p>Population growth in Victoria is 19.4 per cent above the decade average and population in NSW is 9.2 per cent above the decade average.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.58.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.58.15%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Census revisions</p>
<p>Following the release of Census data today, population estimates for the last five years can be updated. The population estimate for Australia in the September quarter has been revised up by 87,000. The biggest upward revision was for Victoria (+111,000), followed by NSW (+15,000), Queensland and the ACT (both +7,000); South Australia (+5,000). There was no change to population estimates for the Northern Territory and downward revisions for Tasmania (-1,000) and Western Australia (-58,000).</p>
<p>Census data</p>
<p>On average across Australia the median age of Aussies was 38; there were 0.9 people per bedroom; there were 2.64 people per dwelling (up from 2.63 people in 2011 and 2.61 people in 2006).</p>
<p>Between 2011 and 2016 the median household income rose by 16.4 per cent to $1,432 a week with the family income up by 17.1 per cent to $1,734 a week. The median rent rose 17.5 per cent to $335 a week and the median mortgage fell by 2.5 per cent to $1.755 a month. </p>
<p>The proportion of families living in detached houses fell from 74.2 per cent in 2011 to 71.6 per cent in 2016; those in apartments fell from 14.3 per cent to 13.7 per cent; but those in semi0detached homes rose from 9.9 per cent to 12.7 per cent.</p>
<p>Why is the data important?</p>
<p>Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.</p>
<p>What are the implications?</p>
<p>There are more people in Australia than previously believed and population growth remains solid. In short, the economy has much momentum. The latest strong employment figures can indeed be believed.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.59.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.59.27%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Demand for infrastructure continues to rise, boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies.</p>
<p>Income has risen strongly over the past five years but the median mortgage has actually gone backwards. The data throws new light on estimates of housing affordability.</p>
<p>The number of people per home continues to edge higher, highlighting the need to build more homes.</p>
<p>CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged over the coming year. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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Fastest population growth in three years: Craig James

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<p>Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock has so far failed to match population growth according to research from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC).</p>
<p>The research, titled Housing supply responsiveness in Australia: distribution, drivers and institutional settings, found increases in Perth and Sydney’s housing stock over the past ten years have been insufficient to match the increase in their growing populations, with supply-side barriers more acute in Sydney than Perth.</p>
<p>Professor Rachel Ong, Deputy Director of BCEC, said while national growth in Australia’s housing stock has kept pace with population growth over the last ten years, the picture is very different for some of our major capitals.</p>
<p>“We’d normally expect to see a trickle-down effect, where building higher-value homes leads to the opening up of lower-value homes for those on lower incomes," she said.</p>
<p>"Our research indicates this isn’t the case, meaning an increase in housing supply is not leading to better housing affordability.</p>
<p>“This indicates that a broader policy response is needed to address the structural impediments that weaken the 'trickle down' impact on new housing supply.</p>
<p>"There is a real need for targeted government intervention, including measures that improve financial incentives for developers to build at the lower end of the housing market.”</p>
<p>The report also found most new housing is concentrated in mid-to-high price market segments and the supply of units is more likely to be concentrated in job-rich areas." </p>
<p>“A likely result of that will be shorter commuting time to work, which offers an important boost to productivity,” Professor Ong said.</p>
<p>Key findings of the report include:</p>
<ul>
<li>An increase in the level of real housing prices by 1 percent produces an estimated 4.7 percent increase in new housing supply. Units with a 1 percent price increase yields a 3.9 percent increase in supply.</li>
<li>Structural impediments weaken the ‘trickling down’ of new housing supply from mid-to-high price segments to lower-value segments, where affordable housing is needed for those on low incomes.</li>
<li>Targeted government intervention is needed to ensure an adequate supply of affordable housing.</li>
<li>The supply of units appears to be higher (all else equal) in already developed areas. Therefore, measures that further promote the construction of units could prove an effective pathway to easing price pressures and expanding affordable housing opportunities.</li>
<li>The impact of planning regulations on housing supply responsiveness is modest, though there is some evidence that government planning policies that promote housing growth are leading to an increase in housing supply.</li>
<li>Developers are more willing to work with restrictive policies that are implemented by planning officers with consistency, than with more lenient policies that come with conflicting consistency and advice. </li>
</ul>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock fails to meet population growth

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<p>Minutes of the May Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board notes growth in housing prices had remained brisk in Sydney and Melbourne, where population growth had been relatively strong, but had been weak in Perth.</p>
<p>According to the RBA, Perth's population growth had fallen significantly following the end of the mining investment boom.</p>
<p>"At the same time, there had been some indications that the large increase in supply in the inner-city Melbourne and Brisbane apartment markets had weighed on prices, particularly in the case of Brisbane," the RBA noted.</p>
<p>"The large amount of residential construction still in progress was expected to support dwelling investment in the near term.</p>
<p>"Building approvals had been lower over prior months, particularly for higher-density dwellings, suggesting that this pipeline of construction work would continue to be worked off in coming quarters.</p>
<p>"Members noted that changes in the rate of home-building lag changes in population growth and that this had affected housing prices in some markets in the preceding few years.</p>
<p>"If households were becoming more focused on paying down debt, this would imply some downside risks to the outlook for household consumption growth. A fall in housing prices could also weigh on consumption growth."</p>
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Growth in Sydney, Melbourne housing prices remains brisk: RBA

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<div>Despite evidence of a slowdown in immigration across many parts of Australia, we recently saw immigration accelerate to a 4-year high. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main population growth is being seen particularly in Melbourne, and in Sydney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now it's getting faster. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In February, permanent and long term arrivals soared to 103,570, the single biggest month on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, long term departures fell to just 30,080, resulting a net intake of 73,490 in a single month, which puts the high volume of apartment construction in a different light.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, immigration can dry up or even turn negative when the outlook turns bad, but for now population growth is absolutely hammering along.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It may seem odd that the monthly intake just hit a record high given weak employment figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But remember that most immigrants head for New South Wales and Victoria where the economies have been performing relatively well, and jobs vacancies have been highest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Smoothing the permanent and long term immigration figures over the last year shows only an apparently small spike.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, caution should always be urged when using these numbers from month to month, not least because overwhelmingly the "long term" departures from Australia have historically returned to Australia within a year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a very sharp drop in the number of permanent settlers from New Zealand and the United Kingdom in recent years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big numbers are now hailing from China, and especially India, with a crunching 2,330 Indian settlers in February. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B6-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B6-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>The number of settlers from North Africa &amp; the Middle East has also comfortably more than doubled over the past year, reflecting a quietly increased humanitarian intake.</span></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors, many from China</span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div>Perhaps the less well understood side of the equation is the huge number of short term arrivals to Australia, which tore to another record in February at more than 8.36 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B4-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There has been a substantial uplift in the number of visitors from America and India, but the real driver has been another record surge in visitors from China. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B5-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B5-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lunar New Year straddled January and February this year, but looking at the original data over the three months to February an unprecedented 525,500 visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong graced Australian shores. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wow. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Finally, I've been blathering on since 2015 about how international students will ultimately become the main driving force of migration into Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And check out the number of education arrivals in February at 123,900, by far the biggest month on record and more than 30 percent higher than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>International students largely hail from China, and many are expected in time to become Australian residents on sundry visa types. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Think I've posted more than enough here for a day or two, but my population growth versus dwelling completions models show that the oversupply of apartments in Melbourne...well, it basically isn't.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney the story is a little different, in that supply has been playing catch up, but with a record number of dwellings under construction right across the state in 2016 the balance is swing sharply as 2017 rolls on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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