<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.</p>

<p>The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.</p>

<p>The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]</p>

<p>Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.</p>

<p>Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.</p>

<p>Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]</p>

<p>Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.</p>

<p>“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.</p>

<p>“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”</p>

<p>“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.”<br />
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]</p>

<p>The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.</p>

<p>Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.</p>

<p>The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.</p>

<p>The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]</p>

<p>Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”</p>

<p>A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.</p>

<p>That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.</p>

<p>The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]</p>

<p>According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.</p>

<p>Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.</p>

<p>The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.</p>

<p>The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.</p>

<p>That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.</p>

<p>The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]</p>

<p>The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.</p>

<p>“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”</p>

<p>The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]</p>


Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.</p>

<p>The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.</p>

<p>Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]</p>

<p>Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.</p>

<p>Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.</p>

<p>“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.</p>

<p>He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.</p>

<p>“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.</p>

<p>“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]</p>

<p>Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.</p>

<p>Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.</p>

<p>Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.</p>

<p>Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.</p>

<p>The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]</p>

<p>Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.</p>

<p>Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.</p>

<p>Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]</p>


NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

<p>Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.</p>

<p>The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.</p>

<p>The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="529"><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" /></p>

<p data-end="1040" data-start="794">According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.</p>

<p>The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.</p>

<p>Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.</p>

<p>“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.</p>

<p>The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.</p>

<p>The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" /></p>

<p>The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”</p>

<p>The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.</p>

<p>Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" /></p>

<p>St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.</p>

<p>Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.</p>

<p>The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.</p>

<p>More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.</p>


First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Population Growth

<html><body>
<p>Hobart’s increasing population, boosted by inward interstate migration as the economy improves, was putting pressure on the rental market, independent economist Saul Eslake suggests.</p>
<p>The vice chancellor’s fellow at the University of Tasmania told Fairfax Media there was a lot more confidence in business.</p>
<p>"There is quite a lot of commercial construction and tourism is also doing well,” he said.</p>
<p>“We’ve had an increase in people wanting to live in Hobart … but on the supply side there hasn’t been a great deal in building approvals.”</p>
<p>Eslake said the biggest shortage was for apartments, which make up 8.6 per cent of dwellings in greater Hobart, according to the latest census data.</p>
<div>Demand for rentals saw Hobart’s vacancy rate drop to a record low of 0.3 per cent by December, according to SQM Research, the tightest rental market of any capital city.</div>
<p>The Domain Rental Report shows it also has the country’s highest rental yield for houses – at 5.34 per cent for the December quarter – and the third highest yield for apartments, at 5.52 per cent. </p>
<p>Ten new townhouses - two bedrooms with 92 sqm space - <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-tas-brighton-127255922" target="_blank">are being constructed at Brighton</a> with prices from $215,000.</p>
<p>They have a suggested $270 a week rental prospect, according to Patrick Nosier at First National.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-tas-rokeby-127253906" target="_blank">three rendered 2010-built townhouse units</a> listed at $220,000 plus at Rokeby.</p>
<p><span>Aspect Building Solutions is building t</span>wo luxury townhouses in the heart of Hobart.</p>
<p>Set over three floors, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-tas-hobart-127173286" target="_blank">the units of 12 Warwick Street </a>are being marketed by Harcourts as "representing an unmatched level of sophistication, exclusivity and luxury."</p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Hobart doesn't have the required new townhouse stock: Saul Eslake

<html><body>
<div>The latest population growth figures put an altogether different slant on Australia's assumed apartment gluts. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Melbourne, the risks have receded dramatically, at least for now.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, with the state's estimated populated growth apparently tracking at the highest level in six decades, it would be all but impossible for the market to become 'oversupplied' until this rate of growth in the headcount slows down. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/29/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Now Queensland <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">really</span></strong> went on an apartment construction mission from 2014 forth, to the extent that there is a now a clear oversupply of units in some locations, particularly inner city Brisbane, with more supply still to come online. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures show that although the glut will have an impact for some time to come, the market will right itself eventually.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, the reacceleration of population growth to +75,400 per annum is exactly what Queensland's housing markets needed to help absorb the stock, while new apartment starts are now understandably and visibly slowing to a crawl. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/29/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In Hobart, commencements have yet to pick up dramatically, despite electric growth in house prices and rents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Because the Hobart market demands houses and not apartments, in theory the supply response should come much more quickly (apartment projects can take ages to build, comparatively speaking).<br><br>And we know from previous cycles that the market has the potential to deliver much greater supply - but to date it hasn't happened.<br><br>Developers from the mainland are not that keen to get involved, perhaps, given the logistical challenges.<br><br>I haven't been down to Tassie for a while - and I got seasick when I last went - so I have no feel whatsoever for activity on the ground. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyer demand</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I noted here previously that the 2016 Census confirmed an enormous surge in 25-34 year olds.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Due in part to housing affordability challenges, many are not yet forming households, though they might begin to do so if capital city apartment prices do ever slide in any meaningful way.<br><br>
</div>
<div>ANZ research this week suggested that there is significant latent first homebuyer demand, and ANZ believes that this could potentially keep an effective floor under prices, which is what I concluded from the Census figures back in June too.</div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Australia's assumed apartment gluts

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Population estimates</p>
<p>Population: Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years. </p>
<p>Big quarterly increase: Australia's population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter - the biggest quarterly increase in nine years.</p>
<p>Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).</p>
<p>The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>In Victoria, population growth is the fastest in 57 years. In NSW, population growth is the fastest in eight years. And In Tasmania you have to go back six years to find a faster rate of population growth. In fact in all states and territories other than South Australia and Northern Territory, population growth is lifting.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.14.49%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>In some regions, it is natural increase – more babies being born (less the number of deaths) – that is driving population growth. In other regions it is immigration. But overall the stronger rate of population growth is boosting spending, demand for infrastructure, demand for homes, and overall economic growth.</p>
<p>Businesses need to dissect the figures and drill down further to find out which regions are growing the faster, Because those regions present some of the best opportunities</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Population Statistics:</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years</p>
<p>Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).</p>
<p>Australia’s population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter – the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. </p>
<p>A total of 231,900 people migrated to Australia over year to March, up from 209,000 in the year to December and the biggest annual gain in four years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p>There were 302,500 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 312,200 babies born in the year to December 2012.</p>
<p>Population growth in Victoria is 19.7 per cent above the decade average and population growth in NSW is 14.3 per cent above the decade average. In Tasmania population growth is 8.1 per cent higher than the decade average.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.16.21%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.16.21%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Why is the data important?</p>
<p>Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.</p>
<p>What are the implications?</p>
<p>There are more people coming to Australia and more babies being born. Overall, population is rising, adding to demand for a raft of businesses across a range of industry sectors. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.17.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/28/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%208.17.40%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The lift in the growth of the population and the physical population numbers, lifts demand for infrastructure, thus boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies. </p>
<p>While economic growth is poised to lift over the coming year, CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged until late in 2018. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

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<p>Australia’s population is booming, with some regions growing by more than 50 percent over the last five years.</p>
<p>In celebration of its upcoming 10th anniversary, <a href="https://www.nearmap.com.au" target="_blank">Nearmap</a>, the Aussie aerial imagery company, has paired its high-res aerial imagery with new Australian Bureau of Statistics data, revealing the country's rapid growth through before and after images of the top 10 fastest growing regions in Australia.</p>
<p>As businesses and local governments work to stay ahead of housing and infrastructure demand, it is becoming increasingly important to fully utilise technology to save time, keep costs down and ultimately speed up delivery of large-scale, long-term developments projects, like those pictured below.</p>
<p>Rob Newman, Nearmap CEO, said from the ground it can be difficult to see the pace at which Australia is growing.</p>
<p>"But when you look at it from the air, you can observe in incredible detail the change occurring across our country, even just in the last five years," he said.</p>
<p>“Nearmap captures, manages and delivers the most frequently-updated high res aerial imagery in the world.</p>
<p>“And by having access to the most up to date information, businesses and government agencies are able to make more informed and strategic decisions, critical for effectively planning and managing urban development as Australia’s population continues to grow.”</p>
<p>Below are the top 10 regions around Australia that have experienced the highest percentage of population growth between 2011 and 2016.</p>
<table style="width: 411px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>Order</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Region name</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>2011 population</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>2016 population</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>Growth</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>State</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>1</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Serpentine – Jarrahdale</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>17,805</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>26,873</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>50%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>WA</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>2</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Gungahlin</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>47,303</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>71,142</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>50%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>ACT</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>3</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Melbourne City</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>93,612</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>135,969</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>45%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>VIC</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>4</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>North Lakes</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>51,568</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>71,560</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>38%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>QLD</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>5</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Wyndham</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>166,020</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>221,895</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>33%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>WA</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>6</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Kwinana</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>29,227</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>38,918</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>33%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>WA</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>7</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Casey – South</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>128,361</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>168,177</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>31%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>VIC</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>8</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Ormeau – Oxenford</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>94,056</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>120,883</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>28%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>QLD</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>9</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Whittlesea – Wallan</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>166,907</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>213,708</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>28%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>VIC</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="48">
<p>10</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="94">
<p>Bringelly – Green Valley</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>80,339</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="83">
<p>102,811</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="57">
<p>28%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="47">
<p>NSW</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Serpentine - Byford December 2012</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.10.24%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Byford June 2016</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.11.19%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Gungahlin - May 2012</span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.12.40%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Gungahlin April 2017</span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.22.31%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> <span>Melbourne City - Carlton November 2011</span></p>
<h1 class="filename"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.25.35%20AM.png" alt=""></h1>
<p> </p>
<p>Carlton May 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.26.16%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>QLD North Lakes</p>
<p>Griffin June 2011</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.27.28%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Griffin June 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.28.12%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Wyndham Vale Victoria</p>
<p>January 2012</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.29.12%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Wyndham Vale February 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.30.03%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Western Australia</p>
<p>Wandi June 2013</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.31.02%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Wandi June 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.31.43%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Cranbourne East August 2011</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.33.50%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Cranbourne East March 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.34.23%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Queensland </p>
<p>Ormeau Hills May 2010</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.35.36%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Ormeau Hills June 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.36.30%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Victoria</p>
<p>Doreen December 2010</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.37.48%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Doreen February 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.38.21%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>New South Wales</p>
<p>Cobbitty February 2010</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.39.33%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Cobbitty April 2017</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/18/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-18%20at%2011.40.18%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
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New images reveal Australia’s 10 fastest growing regions

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/77403/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Western Sydney is one of the fastest-growing regions in Australia. It’s also one of the most culturally and linguistically diverse, as a key arrival point for refugees and new migrants when they first settle in Australia.</p>
<p>Various public figures and media outlets have connected asylum-seeker intake and immigration to traffic congestion and queues at hospitals in Western Sydney. </p>
<p>However, this kind of reaction can pin the blame for infrastructure and affordability problems on culturally diverse populations who may have already lived in Australia for many years, if not several generations.</p>
<h2>Growth from international and domestic migration</h2>
<p>Greater Western Sydney includes Blacktown, the Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Fairfield Hawkesbury, Liverpool, Parramatta, Penrith, the Hills Shire and Wollondilly.</p>
<p>We examined census data compiled by WESTIR Ltd, a non-profit research organisation based in Western Sydney, partly funded by the NSW Department of Family and Community Services. These data showthat Greater Western Sydney’s population increased by 9.8% between 2011 and 2016. Over the decade from 2006 to 2016, it grew by 16%. </p>
<p>About 55% of those living there were born in Australia, and about 39% where born elsewhere (the remainder did not state their place of birth). Most put English or Australian as their first response when asked about their ancestry.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.35.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.35.36%20AM.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR LTD analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>New births are slightly down in the region, meaning growth is coming from other sources. This includes new international migration arrivals, but also incoming residents from other parts of New South Wales and interstate.</p>
<p>Greater Western Sydney has long-established cultural and linguistic diversity. The percentage of residents born overseas has increased from 34.1% in 2006 to 38.7% in 2016. Overall, the west accounts for 50.2% of the overseas-born population for the whole of metropolitan Sydney.</p>
<p>Reasoned debates on sustainable migration intake levels are a crucial part of discussions of urban and regional growth. There are valid criticisms of “Big Australia” policies, based on resource and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>But while the number of new arrivals settling in Western Sydney has increased steadily since the second world war, with a significant jump over the last decade reflecting accelerated skilled migration policies to fill labour shortages, the majority of overseas-born living in the region are long-term settlers who have been in Australia for ten years or more. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.37.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.37.27%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/2016" target="_blank">WESTIR analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<h2>Increasing diversity does not always mean more new migrant settlers</h2>
<p>The data show that 64% of Western Sydney residents have at least one parent born overseas. This is greater than the number of those born overseas. This correlates with national data indicating that Australian-born second-generation migrant residents outnumber those born outside of Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.38.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.38.46%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>So while critics may look at non-white Western Sydney residents and assume they are recent migrants, what they’re often really seeing is multiple generations of multiculturalism. Most of these people are long-term local residents, not necessarily a sudden influx of new arrivals.</p>
<p>In addition, not all overseas-born residents are permanent settlers. Australia takes far larger numbers of temporary entrants than it has in the past. Most of these temporary visa holders, such as international students and temporary skilled workers, live in major metropolitan areas and their surrounds, like Western Sydney.</p>
<p>While some portion of these populations do stay on longer-term, they are not all permanent settlers who will add to long-term population growth. Net migration figures, which take into account people who depart Australia every year as well as arrive, and exclude short-term visitors, have generally been decreasing over the past six years. </p>
<h2>Who do we define as ‘migrants’?</h2>
<p>New Zealand citizens moving under Trans-Tasman agreements and migrants from the United Kingdom are still among the largest migrant groups in Greater Western Sydney. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.43.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.43.14%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR LTD, using Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>In many local government areas in Western Sydney – such as Wollondilly, the Hills Shire, Penrith, Hawkesbury and Campbelltown – England and/or New Zealand feature in the top five countries of birth of overseas-born residents. </p>
<p>If anxieties about migration and population in Western Sydney are based on genuine sustainability concerns and not xenophobia, why target mostly refugees and non-white migrants? Why focus only on areas with large non-white and non-English-speaking background populations?</p>
<h2>Migrants do use infrastructure, but also drive economic and jobs growth</h2>
<p>It’s never as simple as one new arrival “using up” an allocation of limited resources, whether jobs, housing, or seats on trains. In fact, new arrivals fill the gaps of an ageing workforce, and current migration policies are targeted to favour younger migrants and specific skills shortages.</p>
<p>Western Sydney, like many regions in Australia, has an ageing population. Residents aged 65-74 years increased from 6.2% in 2011 to 7.2% in 2016. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.44.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.44.20%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR Ltd Using Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>Large-scale infrastructure – whether the slated new airport or the Westmead hospital – requires young and often skilled workers.</p>
<p>Nationally, recently arrived overseas-born residents have a lower median age and a higher level of education than Australian-born residents.</p>
<p>Infrastructure problems are also problems of policy, planning and funding, rather than just population numbers. Problems in transport and health infrastructure in Western Sydney cannot be easily solved by reactive anti-immigration attitudes or policies. </p>
<p>Cuts to programs like the humanitarian program or skilled temporary work visas, where the intake numbers remain relatively small as a proportion of the overall population, will not solve those infrastructure problems.</p>
<p>Western Sydney is growing, and with growth comes growing pains. But equating the region’s rich cultural diversity with a population crisis is the wrong message to send.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shanthi-robertson-48422" target="_blank">Shanthi Robertson</a> is </span>Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kristine-aquino-376456" target="_blank">Kristine Aquino</a> is </span>Lecturer in Global Studies, University of Technology Sydney.</p>
<p>Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Blaming migrants won’t solve Western Sydney’s growing pains

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<p>A new report from UBS has forecast a slump in house price growth next year, but no crash.</p>
<p>The investment bank's report forecast that the correction would see annual house price growth to fall from 10 per cent now to 7 per cent by the end of 2017.</p>
<p>It will further reduce next year with growth forecast between zero and 3 per cent in 2018.</p>
<p>"We 'called the top' [in April] and now have increased confidence a correction is unfolding, but still don't see a crash," said economists George Tharenou and Scott Haslem.</p>
<p>"Looking ahead, price growth has likely already peaked, and we still see moderation ahead, amid record supply/completions, poor affordability and rising mortgage rates.</p>
<p>"But, we still don't see prices dropping given booming 'people' growth," the UBS economists said.</p>
<p>The economists expect both building commencements and construction activity to have a "sharp downturn until at least the end of 2018, but said the lack of RBA rate hikes "reduces the chance this becomes a crash where commencements plunge to prior cycle lows closer to 130,000 (a year) which would then see a weaker labour market and falling prices". </p>
<p>Last month the UBS chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Scott Haslem announced he was resigning from the investment bank after 19 years.</p>
<p>The internal replacement was named as George Tharenou will be taking over the role from Mr Haslem, who will be pursuing opportunities outside sell-side research, UBS said in a statement.</p>
<p>Mr Tharenou has been at UBS since 2006, and has previously worked in the Reserve Bank of Australia and Queensland Treasury.</p>
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UBS says population growth to thwart property prices going backwards

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 372,805 people over the year to December 2016 to 24,385,625 people.</p>
<p>Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.547 percent to 1.553 percent – the fastest population growth in almost three years.</p>
<p>Upward revision: With the release of the latest Census data, population estimates have been revised higher. The initial estimate of Australia’s population in the September quarter was revised up by 87,000.</p>
<p>Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.40 per cent, just short of the June quarter 16 record of 2.42 per cent), followed by the ACT (1.71 per cent), NSW (1.52 per cent), Queensland (1.46 per cent), Western Australia (0.66 per cent), South Australia (0.61 per cent), Tasmania (0.58 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.26 per cent).</p>
<p>Census data: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released a raft of data from the 2016 Census. Of interest, the median mortgage repayment fell 2.5 per cent to $1755 a month in the five years to 2016 while household income lifted 16.4 per cent and family income rose by 17.1 per cent.</p>
<p>The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending. The Census data is important for all businesses in planning new markets.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>Victoria remains the population leader – a position it has for over two years. Before that, you have to go back to 1888 to find a time when Victoria held the position of the state with the fastest population growth. And not only is Victoria’s population growing at near the fastest rate on record, population numbers in the state have been revised up by 87,000.</p>
<p>Population is growing faster than decade averages in Victoria, NSW and Tasmania, underpinning housing demand. Interestingly Tasmania’s population growth rate has almost doubled in less than two years, driving growth for the local economy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.56.16%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.56.16%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Australia’s baby boom continues. A total of 311,000 babies were born over the past year, just below the highest annual total on record. More hospitals and schools will be needed. Hopefully policymakers quickly get across the latest Census data quickly.</p>
<p>There are more people in Australia than previously estimated – in fact 87,000 extra people, requiring an extra 33,000 homes. Most of the “extra” people have been “found” in Victoria. But there are 58,000 fewer people in Western Australia than previously believed.</p>
<p>Amongst some of the interesting Census data released, the median mortgage repayment fell 2.5 per cent to $1,755 a month in the five years to 2016 while household income lifted 16.4 per cent. The data will be closely dissected by investors on a regional basis to gain insights on housing affordability.</p>
<p>The proportion of families renting is now broadly equal to those owning homes outright. This highlights the fact that interest rate decisions now only really interest 32 per cent of the population.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Population Statistics:</p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 372,805 people over the year to December 2016 to 24,385,625 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.547 per cent to 1.553 per cent – the fastest population growth in almost three years.</p>
<p>Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.40 per cent, just short of the June quarter 2016 record of 2.42 per cent), followed by the ACT (1.71 per cent), NSW (1.52 per cent), Queensland (1.46 per cent), Western Australia (0.66 per cent), South Australia (0.61 per cent), Tasmania (0.58 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.26 per cent).</p>
<p>Australia’s population grew by 78,397 people over the December quarter.</p>
<p>A total of 209,000 people migrated to Australia over year to December, up from 198,900 in the year to September and the biggest annual gain in three years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p>There were 311,000 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 315,500 babies born in the year to June 2016.</p>
<p>Population growth in Victoria is 19.4 per cent above the decade average and population in NSW is 9.2 per cent above the decade average.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.58.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.58.15%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Census revisions</p>
<p>Following the release of Census data today, population estimates for the last five years can be updated. The population estimate for Australia in the September quarter has been revised up by 87,000. The biggest upward revision was for Victoria (+111,000), followed by NSW (+15,000), Queensland and the ACT (both +7,000); South Australia (+5,000). There was no change to population estimates for the Northern Territory and downward revisions for Tasmania (-1,000) and Western Australia (-58,000).</p>
<p>Census data</p>
<p>On average across Australia the median age of Aussies was 38; there were 0.9 people per bedroom; there were 2.64 people per dwelling (up from 2.63 people in 2011 and 2.61 people in 2006).</p>
<p>Between 2011 and 2016 the median household income rose by 16.4 per cent to $1,432 a week with the family income up by 17.1 per cent to $1,734 a week. The median rent rose 17.5 per cent to $335 a week and the median mortgage fell by 2.5 per cent to $1.755 a month. </p>
<p>The proportion of families living in detached houses fell from 74.2 per cent in 2011 to 71.6 per cent in 2016; those in apartments fell from 14.3 per cent to 13.7 per cent; but those in semi0detached homes rose from 9.9 per cent to 12.7 per cent.</p>
<p>Why is the data important?</p>
<p>Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.</p>
<p>What are the implications?</p>
<p>There are more people in Australia than previously believed and population growth remains solid. In short, the economy has much momentum. The latest strong employment figures can indeed be believed.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.59.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.59.27%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Demand for infrastructure continues to rise, boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies.</p>
<p>Income has risen strongly over the past five years but the median mortgage has actually gone backwards. The data throws new light on estimates of housing affordability.</p>
<p>The number of people per home continues to edge higher, highlighting the need to build more homes.</p>
<p>CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged over the coming year. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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Fastest population growth in three years: Craig James

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<p>Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock has so far failed to match population growth according to research from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC).</p>
<p>The research, titled Housing supply responsiveness in Australia: distribution, drivers and institutional settings, found increases in Perth and Sydney’s housing stock over the past ten years have been insufficient to match the increase in their growing populations, with supply-side barriers more acute in Sydney than Perth.</p>
<p>Professor Rachel Ong, Deputy Director of BCEC, said while national growth in Australia’s housing stock has kept pace with population growth over the last ten years, the picture is very different for some of our major capitals.</p>
<p>“We’d normally expect to see a trickle-down effect, where building higher-value homes leads to the opening up of lower-value homes for those on lower incomes," she said.</p>
<p>"Our research indicates this isn’t the case, meaning an increase in housing supply is not leading to better housing affordability.</p>
<p>“This indicates that a broader policy response is needed to address the structural impediments that weaken the 'trickle down' impact on new housing supply.</p>
<p>"There is a real need for targeted government intervention, including measures that improve financial incentives for developers to build at the lower end of the housing market.”</p>
<p>The report also found most new housing is concentrated in mid-to-high price market segments and the supply of units is more likely to be concentrated in job-rich areas." </p>
<p>“A likely result of that will be shorter commuting time to work, which offers an important boost to productivity,” Professor Ong said.</p>
<p>Key findings of the report include:</p>
<ul>
<li>An increase in the level of real housing prices by 1 percent produces an estimated 4.7 percent increase in new housing supply. Units with a 1 percent price increase yields a 3.9 percent increase in supply.</li>
<li>Structural impediments weaken the ‘trickling down’ of new housing supply from mid-to-high price segments to lower-value segments, where affordable housing is needed for those on low incomes.</li>
<li>Targeted government intervention is needed to ensure an adequate supply of affordable housing.</li>
<li>The supply of units appears to be higher (all else equal) in already developed areas. Therefore, measures that further promote the construction of units could prove an effective pathway to easing price pressures and expanding affordable housing opportunities.</li>
<li>The impact of planning regulations on housing supply responsiveness is modest, though there is some evidence that government planning policies that promote housing growth are leading to an increase in housing supply.</li>
<li>Developers are more willing to work with restrictive policies that are implemented by planning officers with consistency, than with more lenient policies that come with conflicting consistency and advice. </li>
</ul>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Increases in Sydney and Perth housing stock fails to meet population growth

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<p>Minutes of the May Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board notes growth in housing prices had remained brisk in Sydney and Melbourne, where population growth had been relatively strong, but had been weak in Perth.</p>
<p>According to the RBA, Perth's population growth had fallen significantly following the end of the mining investment boom.</p>
<p>"At the same time, there had been some indications that the large increase in supply in the inner-city Melbourne and Brisbane apartment markets had weighed on prices, particularly in the case of Brisbane," the RBA noted.</p>
<p>"The large amount of residential construction still in progress was expected to support dwelling investment in the near term.</p>
<p>"Building approvals had been lower over prior months, particularly for higher-density dwellings, suggesting that this pipeline of construction work would continue to be worked off in coming quarters.</p>
<p>"Members noted that changes in the rate of home-building lag changes in population growth and that this had affected housing prices in some markets in the preceding few years.</p>
<p>"If households were becoming more focused on paying down debt, this would imply some downside risks to the outlook for household consumption growth. A fall in housing prices could also weigh on consumption growth."</p>
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Growth in Sydney, Melbourne housing prices remains brisk: RBA

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<div>Despite evidence of a slowdown in immigration across many parts of Australia, we recently saw immigration accelerate to a 4-year high. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main population growth is being seen particularly in Melbourne, and in Sydney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now it's getting faster. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In February, permanent and long term arrivals soared to 103,570, the single biggest month on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, long term departures fell to just 30,080, resulting a net intake of 73,490 in a single month, which puts the high volume of apartment construction in a different light.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, immigration can dry up or even turn negative when the outlook turns bad, but for now population growth is absolutely hammering along.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It may seem odd that the monthly intake just hit a record high given weak employment figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But remember that most immigrants head for New South Wales and Victoria where the economies have been performing relatively well, and jobs vacancies have been highest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Smoothing the permanent and long term immigration figures over the last year shows only an apparently small spike.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, caution should always be urged when using these numbers from month to month, not least because overwhelmingly the "long term" departures from Australia have historically returned to Australia within a year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B1-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a very sharp drop in the number of permanent settlers from New Zealand and the United Kingdom in recent years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big numbers are now hailing from China, and especially India, with a crunching 2,330 Indian settlers in February. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B6-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B6-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>The number of settlers from North Africa &amp; the Middle East has also comfortably more than doubled over the past year, reflecting a quietly increased humanitarian intake.</span></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors, many from China</span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div>Perhaps the less well understood side of the equation is the huge number of short term arrivals to Australia, which tore to another record in February at more than 8.36 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B4-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There has been a substantial uplift in the number of visitors from America and India, but the real driver has been another record surge in visitors from China. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B5-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B5-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lunar New Year straddled January and February this year, but looking at the original data over the three months to February an unprecedented 525,500 visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong graced Australian shores. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wow. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Finally, I've been blathering on since 2015 about how international students will ultimately become the main driving force of migration into Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And check out the number of education arrivals in February at 123,900, by far the biggest month on record and more than 30 percent higher than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/B3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/13/B3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>International students largely hail from China, and many are expected in time to become Australian residents on sundry visa types. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Think I've posted more than enough here for a day or two, but my population growth versus dwelling completions models show that the oversupply of apartments in Melbourne...well, it basically isn't.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney the story is a little different, in that supply has been playing catch up, but with a record number of dwellings under construction right across the state in 2016 the balance is swing sharply as 2017 rolls on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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