<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.</p>

<p>The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.</p>

<p>The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]</p>

<p>Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.</p>

<p>Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.</p>

<p>Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]</p>

<p>Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.</p>

<p>“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.</p>

<p>“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”</p>

<p>“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.”<br />
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]</p>

<p>The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.</p>

<p>Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.</p>

<p>The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.</p>

<p>The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]</p>

<p>Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”</p>

<p>A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.</p>

<p>That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.</p>

<p>The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]</p>

<p>According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.</p>

<p>Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.</p>

<p>The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.</p>

<p>The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.</p>

<p>That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.</p>

<p>The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]</p>

<p>The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.</p>

<p>“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.</p>

<p>“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”</p>

<p>The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]</p>


Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.</p>

<p>The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.</p>

<p>Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]</p>

<p>Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.</p>

<p>Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.</p>

<p>“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.</p>

<p>He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.</p>

<p>“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.</p>

<p>“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]</p>

<p>Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.</p>

<p>Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.</p>

<p>Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.</p>

<p>Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.</p>

<p>The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]</p>

<p>Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.</p>

<p>Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.</p>

<p>Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]</p>


NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

<p>Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.</p>

<p>The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.</p>

<p>The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="792" data-start="529"><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" /></p>

<p data-end="1040" data-start="794">According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.</p>

<p>The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.</p>

<p>Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.</p>

<p>“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.</p>

<p>The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.</p>

<p>The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" /></p>

<p>The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p>“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.</p>

<p>According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.</p>

<p>“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”</p>

<p>The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.</p>

<p>Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.</p>

<p><img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" /></p>

<p>St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.</p>

<p>Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.</p>

<p>The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.</p>

<p>More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.</p>


First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Interest Rates

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<p>According to SMSF Association CEO and managing director Andrea Slattery, the cut in the official interest rate to a new low of 1.5 percent will hurt SMSF trustees who have large cash balances in retirement phase.</p>
<p>“Although this low interest rate environment is cause for concern for some trustees, the Association is, however, greatly heartened by the fact that a current research report shows that those SMSFs in the transition to retirement or pension phases are typically coping “very well”, she said.</p>
<p>“Research by the SMSF Association and the retirement experts Accurium shows that the medium average return of funds in these two phases of transition to retirement and full retirement is 4.2% – a real return of more than 3% after inflation, an excellent result in this volatile investment environment. </p>
<p>“Quite clearly such a real return shows SMSF trustees are getting good advice and are making informed decisions to ensure they are both safeguarding their capital and generating an income.” </p>
<p>Slattery says the research should help dispel the myth that trustees – especially in the retirement phase – are a one-trick pony with their money only in cash or fixed deposits and blue-chip Australian equities.</p>
<p>“The reality is trustees have been able to find ways of diversifying their investment portfolios to generate healthy returns after inflation, especially considering low interest rates and difficult investment markets, highlighting, yet again, the value of sound strategic advice," she said.</p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

SMSF trustees in retirement phase set to be hurt after official RBA rate cut

<html><body>
<div>The ABS released its Lending Finance data for May 2015 which showed that low interest rates are encouraging greater borrowing across the economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While total lending was a little lower than in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, over the past year the data has strengthened considerably.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner-occupied housing finance has increased to a record high level, while personal finance borrowing is also now tracking at its highest benchmark on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total lending finance for the month of $74 billion was an increase of 10% on the prior year figure, sending total finance commitments for the past 12 months surging 11% to $846 billion - the highest ever figure on this survey.</div>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r7zMiNP0hrE/VaMqbW5y3nI/AAAAAAAAW2g/Hv0pU7OKztM/s640/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r7zMiNP0hrE/VaMqbW5y3nI/AAAAAAAAW2g/Hv0pU7OKztM/s640/LF3.jpg" width="640" height="282"><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Sydney property investors running riot</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>While property investor loans have evidently passed their peak for this cycle in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, elsewhere investor loans are trending upwards.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed in New South Wales investor lending is exploding off the top of the chart, with the May 2015 result of $6.07 billion again comfortably the greatest ever<em> </em>month of investment lending in any state or territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Summarily, Sydney now has the highest ever level of investment lending in concert with the lowest stock on market levels we have seen. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Egg on face for many of the property experts once again, though it should be noted here that the market regulator "should" now be targeting Sydney loans with a vengeance in order to dial back this exuberant level of demand.</div>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y4pNm4gMQPI/VaMufvQ20hI/AAAAAAAAW3U/saA0sZZ_hR4/s640/LF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y4pNm4gMQPI/VaMufvQ20hI/AAAAAAAAW3U/saA0sZZ_hR4/s640/LF1.jpg" width="640" height="280"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Charted below is the raw data for New South Wales, which shows that investor lending has increased by an extraordinary 137% over the three years since May 2012.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis, investor lending has increased by more than 30% over the past year - yet another monster increase.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rtCPwmPXV_w/VaMqbhX32AI/AAAAAAAAW24/QkPXvKGPAiE/s640/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rtCPwmPXV_w/VaMqbhX32AI/AAAAAAAAW24/QkPXvKGPAiE/s640/LF2.jpg" width="640" height="272"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Although not charted here mainly due to laziness, May was also by a whisker the strongest ever month for investment lending in Victoria at $3.27 billion, taking rolling annual lending to $34 billion, a 22 per cent year-on-year increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>May was another strong month for Queensland investor lending at $1.73 million. which takes the rolling annual figure 13.3 per cent higher than one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It has been a long yet steady recovery for Queensland investors since the financing nadir related to the 2011 floods.</div>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j1D_B7ZhPsI/VaMqcokjPwI/AAAAAAAAW2o/jADYFHRqXGY/s640/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j1D_B7ZhPsI/VaMqcokjPwI/AAAAAAAAW2o/jADYFHRqXGY/s640/LF4.jpg" width="640" height="268"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Investor lending was lower in the month of May in South Australia, but nevertheless on a rolling annual basis has moved 11% higher over the past year.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-U43UWz-Cr3s/VaMuJcbQtBI/AAAAAAAAW3I/YsmK5om-rqg/s640/SA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-U43UWz-Cr3s/VaMuJcbQtBI/AAAAAAAAW3I/YsmK5om-rqg/s640/SA.jpg" width="640" height="278"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Investor lending is now declining in Western Australia, albeit fairly moderately, with low borrowing rates sustaining borrowing for property investment at a historically high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z_r-c3Tek1w/VaMuJO7v2TI/AAAAAAAAW3E/AhROalONWVw/s640/Wa.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, a strong result which suggests that total lending finance on an annualised basis may be heading towards $900 billion in due course, suggesting that easier monetary policy is taking effect.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Property investor lending continues to be exceptionally strong, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And indeed the data suggests that this dynamic is now spreading to Hobart, Brisbane, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Adelaide.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Sydney property investors running riot: Pete Wargent

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<div>A surprisingly soft inflation result, and one which puts further interest rate cuts right back in the frame, if indeed they ever snuck out of shot.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Headline CPI printed at 0.5% for the June quarter for an annual result of just 1.5%, well beneath the target range of inflation, thereby locking in the weakest run of inflation results we have seen in years.<br><br>Indeed the index numbers show that the headline result was weaker still, and only rounding took the headline figure up to 0.5% for the September quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The soft result was influenced by the declining price of vegetables (!), telco quipment &amp; services, and perhaps more predictably, automotive fuel. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Non tradables or domestic inflation came in at a soft 0.4% for the quarter and 2.6% for the year, suggesting that domestic price pressures are fairly subdued, while tradables inflation remained very soft. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Despite the Aussie dollar having tanked all the way from above parity against the US dollar to around 71.3 cents after this release, there still seems to be little evidence of inflationary pressure.</span><br><br><span>This is generally viewed as a sign of weakness for the economy, with wages growth sundued and sentiment too weak to see the higher prices of imports to be passed on to consumers.</span><br><br><span>Most significantly of all the underlying measures of inflation - the trimmed mean and weighted median - both came in at just 0.3% for the quarter, for annual prints of  2.1 and 2.2% respectively.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/29/Inflation3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These figures will be seen to add to the case for further interest rate cuts with inflation sinking towards the bottom end of the target range and unemployment remaining above 6%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Futures markets are undecided about an interest rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day next week (62% chance), but hav priced in a high probability of the cash rate being dropped once again before the Christmas break.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Veggie price decline influences inflation outcome: Pete Wargent

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<div>Having recently listed on the securities exchange, Australian Finance Group (AFG) now opts to release its aggregate mortgage data on a quarterly basis, having previously released monthly figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The figures for the September 2015 quarter, which are not seasonally adjusted, revealed a +16% year-on-year increase in mortgage volumes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/15/AFG1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/15/AFG1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Mortgage volumes have increased by more than +68% over the past three years, which may be partly reflective of changes in market share. </span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Average mortgage size soars</span></strong><br><br><div>Significantly the average new mortgage size in Australia has soared further from $433,000 to $471,000 over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/15/AFG2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/15/AFG2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Unsurprisingly, the main driver of the gains has been the average size of mortgages sold in New South Wales which has jumped by more than $60,000 over the past year, and has soared from $454,000 to $584,000 over the past three years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year the average mortgage size also increased significantly in Victoria (+$34,000), Queensland (+$24,000), South Australia (+$30,000).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were also increases over the last year in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, but these resources states saw declines in their respective average mortgage sizes in Q3 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/15/AFG3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/15/AFG3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor market share declines</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps the most significant aspect of this release was the very sharp drop in investor market share.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>According to AFG the investor share appears to have stabilised in recent months at around 32 to 33% of the mortgage market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Notably investor market share for Q3 2015 of just 33% was well below the 3 year average of 38%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/15/AFG4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/15/AFG4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator">This once again implies that APRA's advisory speed limit of +10 per cent annualised credit growth in relation to invetsment loans will be comfortably met in due course, and the housing market story going forward will largely be one of to what extent owner-occupier loans pick up the slack.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Westpac taps the market with raising</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This morning Westpac went into a trading halt and announced that it would be tapping investors for a $3.5 billion renounceable entitlement offer in order to bolster its capital position, while noting in a separate announcement to the ASX that it will be whacking 20bps onto its home loan and investment loan rates, effective from November.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It is widely expected that the other retail banks will follow suit in due course in respect to mortgage rates.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This move seems likely to be a game changer for cash rate futures markets, with another interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank as soon as next month already considered by some to be an each way bet.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">If Thursday's employment data is weaker than expected then a rate cut in November may become more likely than not.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">AFG noted in its release that many borrowers consider further rate cuts to be increasingly likely, with fixed rate mortgages declining to just 11.3% of total loans processed for the quarter, which is the lowest level for more than three years. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Average mortgage size soars: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-3728627092930340920" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Measures taken to slow the housing market in 2015 did their job effectively, largely by restricting the amount that people could borrow.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although there have been two interest rate cuts since May - a valedictory "double tap" from Governor Stevens, if you will - serviceability calculations continue to be assessed at a more stringent level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result borrowers can generally borrow little more than was the case before the most recent salvo of easing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was to some extent reflected in the Housing Finance figures for June, released by the ABS today following a troublesome Census night website crash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although the average loan size has been increasing steadily again from $352,200 to $360,100 since February, this figure remains below the peak of $382,300 seen in November last year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And it's a similar story for first homebuyer loan sizes. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/08/11/A2.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>At the state level, the first homebuyer loan sizes figures show the impact of tighter serviceability calculations.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Total finance</span></strong><br><br><div>The net effect of this is that although trend total monthly housing finance has also now been rising again for the past few months - back up to well above $32 billion - the total value of commitments for now remains below the peak of $32.7 billion seen in June last year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor lending was the main target of the macroprudential crackdown, as you can see in the chart below. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the speed of investor credit growth now only about half of the arbitrary 10 per cent "speed limit", investor lending has now been trending up again for the past six months, albeit at a far less frantic pace than seen previously.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Homebuyers return</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>The level of activity of homebuyers in the market has generally been relatively lower than we have seen in previous cycles, in part due to the sheer volume of investors in the Sydney and Melbourne markets since interest rates were dropped.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, following the effectively imposed caps on investor lending banks are now targeting the home loan market, and the trend number of monthly owner-occupier commitments has continued to rise to the highest level since June 2009. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>The number of owner-occupier commitments is trending solidly higher in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Homebuyer activity remains high in Sydney and Melbourne, but these markets will also be impacted by serviceability constraints.</div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/08/11/A6.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>Indeed, this is reflected in the dampened trend monthly value of owner-occupier commitments in the two most populous states in the chart below.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The homebuyer trend value of commitments appears to be strongest in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/11/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/11/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">That said there has been a marked resurgence in investor lending in Sydney, sending preliminary auction clearance rates to their highest level of the year, at above 80 per cent.</div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Overall, despite lots of alarmist reporting housing finance is tracking both at a historically high level, and is now accelerating again.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And remember that these figures for June pre-date an interest rate cut delivered in August.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's also worth remembering that the underlying demand for mortgages right now is enormous - the only reason lending slowed was because regulators were getting concerned about the sheer wight of demand for borrowing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data seem to be following a remarkably similar trajectory to what we saw in the United Kingdom following its own macroprudential intervention (the so-termed Mortgage Market Review). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That is the initial shock clonked the market on to the back foot, but as the dust settles lending is on the rise again - just more steadily than it was before.<br><br>Finally, the ABS reported a small increase in first homebuyer activity, but as disclosed by the ABS these data remain incomplete.<br><br>NAB's survey for Q2 2016 showed that first homebuyers accounted for 1 in 3 new home sales in the June quarter, and 29 per cent of established home sales.</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Housing finance accelerating again: Pete Wargent

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<p>I've always liked the saying "can't see the forest for the trees".</p>
<p>It appropriately sums up so much of the distorted self-indoctrinated bias of opinion pertaining to real estate in Australia.</p>
<p>The debate has never been so fierce – especially when it comes to the definition of that 'bubble'. I am of the firm belief that it is those who are actual historians of the Australian property markets who are the ones with the greatest ability to call the exact path and outcomes.</p>
<p>If you want to end the 'bubble' debate simply ask the question: "So when do you see this bubble bursting?"</p>
<p>It's always the fastest way to draw the debate to a fast halt. History has shown when you closely analyse the property market machinations through the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – Cash Rate Target interest rate changes only then can we see the significant market changes.</p>
<p>That being when the RBA increases the cash rate twice (not once) we are starting to see a new course being charted. Then it takes another two to four years for the affects to be seen given that is when households start to come out of their fixed mortgage periods into the higher mortgage agreements.</p>
<p>Given we are the best part of at least 12 months away from the first cash rate increase – which should send the alarm bells ringing – then depending on the next increase we won't start seeing any noticeable market price corrections until 2016 to 2019.</p>
<p>We also need to bear in mind that when the cash rate increases so does the exchange rate as that goes up in unison, which is the last thing the RBA wants to see given it's presently trying to get the exchange rate down.</p>
<p>We should consider that the RBA is well down the track to introducing its new macroprudential tools as well as waiting to receive (then implement) the findings from the Murray Financial System Inquiry.</p>
<p>No doubt the RBA would be very much looking forward to tinkering the markets with these tools so that (for the very first time) other than increasing the cash rate  it may just be able to manipulate the markets in a way never seen before. For the first time ever (as many would not be aware) we are witnessing history with these new real estate market initiatives.</p>
<p>Again, history will show whether or not they were effective. However, it will be fascinating to watch the outcomes.</p>
<p>So back to those fools on the hill who following this week's RBA decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 2.50% – they even managed to get that wrong. No it was not a record (as some declared). Even though 14 straight months is getting up there, the actual record is 17, not 16 as some would believe. Furthermore, you can only apply consecutive meetings as the RBA doesn't meet in January.</p>
<p>Having said that, when you go back through the history of the cash rate movements at the RBA we start to see fascinating stories evolve.</p>
<p>I have conducted my research on instances where the cash rate remained on hold for 10 or more consecutive meetings:</p>
<p>The first period of RBA cash rate holds started on 30 July 1993 when the cash rate was moved from 5.25% to 4.75%, where it remained until 27 July 1994 – in total 12 holds. Then on 17 August it was bumped up 1.25% to 5.50%.</p>
<p>The next run of holds, which is the equal record 17 holds, happened on 14 December 1994 when the cash rate increased from 6.50% to 7.50%, where it remained until 3 July 1996.</p>
<p>Then it fell to 7.00%. So we are seeing long holds followed by increases and decreases.</p>
<p>On 30 July 1997 we saw another 16 consecutive holds at 5.00%, to then see it drop to 4.75%.</p>
<p>On 5 June 2002 we saw 16 holds at 4.75%, to then see it increased to 5.25% in November 2003.</p>
<p>On 4 February 2004 we saw thirteen holds at 5.25%. When the cash rate was increased to 5.50% in March 2005, that was followed by another twelve holds that was followed by an increase to 5.75%.</p>
<p>Then on 8 December 2011 we had another ten holds at 4.75%, then saw the rate dropped to 4.25%.</p>
<p>We are now in the current hold pattern after fourteen meetings, so based on history it's anyone's guess what or when the next movement might be. I predict the current rate will be set for the longest period in RBA history as it will go well into the twenty something meetings.</p>
<p>So when you see the arguments mounting that many commentators were disappointed that the RBA hardly mentioned that ''bubble" following this week's decision – history clearly shows that the board members may not be that concerned about that "bubble".</p>
<p>Maybe they are more concerned as to why investors have steered clear of the stock market which, by the way, had a few massive corrections this week – although, wait a minute, nothing much was written about that either.</p>
<p>It all depends on what you are looking at – the forest or the trees?</p>
<p>As to be expected stock levels increased significantly this week – so now we finally get to see firsthand just how strong the markets really are.</p>
<p>Watching these numbers will be telling over the period leading up to Christmas, although I don't believe we will see anything that even resembles that imaginary 'bubble'. Time will tell!</p>
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Want to know when the market will change? Keep an eye on interest rates

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">What is it about Sydney people that makes them so sensitive to interest rates when no one else in Australia is?</span></p>
<p>If we can believe popular analysis, interest rates cuts are like steroids to Sydney residents. They get all pumped up by them and charge around lifting things that were financially too heavy for them previously.</p>
<p>But the 81% of Australians who live outside Greater Sydney are immune. They’re exposed to the same stimulus but it has no visible effect on them. Curious modern phenomenon.</p>
<p>Anyone with a keen eye for observation and an inquiring mind – the qualities that journalists used to have, back in the day – might wonder why Canberra people, for example, have such a strong immunity to the rates steroid.</p>
<p>It certainly made me wonder, so I checked to make sure they have the same interest rates in the national capital as they have three hours up the road in the NSW capital. And, sure enough, they do.</p>
<p>And guess what else? They have the same interest rates in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin, Adelaide and Hobart as well. </p>
<p>I had assumed rates must be much higher in all those places because, according to the latest figures from cor blimey RP Data, apartment prices are falling in Perth, Darwin, Hobart and Canberra – and have barely moved in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, whereas they’re up 10% in Sydney.</p>
<p>Here are some of the headlines since the RBA interest rates decision last week:</p>
<ul>
<li>Rate cut adds to Sydney buying frenzy</li>
<li>Rate cut dangerous for property market</li>
<li>Rate cut could destabilize property market</li>
<li>RBA rate cut will put pressure on property market</li>
</ul>
<p>Some of the reaction to the interest rate reduction bordered on the ludicrous. We had a slightly hysterical president of the Real Estate Institute of NSW, Malcolm Gunning, claiming the rate cut meant young people would be forced to leave Sydney. Sam White from Loan Market said the rate cut would make the market unsustainable and unaffordable.</p>
<p>We even had Adelaide pundits claiming the rates decisions would fire up the local property market. Why all those previous rate cuts had failed to achieve that was not explained. </p>
<p>We’ve had almost four years of falling interest rates and none of those previous cuts have generated a boom in Adelaide – or anywhere else in capital city Australia, apart from Sydney - but this latest reduction is going to “fire up” the market, apparently.</p>
<p>So where did this notion that interest rates were the prime factor in residential real estate dynamics originate? Yes, you guessed it – it’s the love child of our under-class of chattering economists.</p>
<p>Watching an economist discuss real estate is like listening to a close friend of mine discuss rugby. She understands that a ball is involved but she’s never sure whether it’s round or oval - or whether you need to kick it over the bar or under it. She is sure about one thing, though - that it doesn’t make a lot of sense and far too many people are obsessed with it.</p>
<p>I recently spoke to a boardroom luncheon in Sydney, attended by 12 or 15 people with “economist” somewhere in their titles and all from big name companies and institutions. What they collectively knew about residential property could be written on the back of a postage stamp in crayon. In the minds of most of them, there’s a national property boom and it’s caused by low interest rates.</p>
<p>They’re the masters of the universe and they know close to nothing.</p>
<p>There’s another thought about this whole obsession with interest rates and the belief they are central to movements in property markets. Investors who are fundamentally driven by interest rate cuts are not thinking clearly. The current level of interest rates is largely irrelevant to sensible decision-making about property investment.</p>
<p>Anyone who borrows now to invest will face dozens of interest rate changes over the life of their loan. The current level of rates is not a core consideration. The core question for investors should be: if rates at some point rise 2 or 3 percentage points above their current levels, can I still afford the repayments?</p>
<p>If you’re charging around like the steroid-induced herd animals in Sydney, you’ve missed that fundamental point.</p>
<p><span>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/"><span>hotspotting.com.au</span></a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><span>email him</span></a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting"><span>Twitter</span></a>.</span></p>
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Sensitive Sydneysiders reel at rates: Terry Ryder

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<p><span>When it comes to the question of who pays the mortgage interest, the answer is that New South Wales and Victoria do: well over half of the national interest payable in fact.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/25/Interest%20Payable.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span> <img src="/images/2015/11/25/Interest%20Payable.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<div>While this might seem surprising, in fact the share of interest paid by the largest two states has declined over the past two decades.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The reason for this has been the expansion of both the population and mortgage sizes in Queensland (its share of the mortgage interest pie increasing from 15%to 19%) and Western Australia (its share increasing from 9 to 13%).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The changes elsewhere have been negligible when viewed from the national level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the Australian population having increased by well over 1 million persons (or about 4.7%) over the past three years, total interest payable has declined by nearly 22% thanks to the slashing of interest rates.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Who pays the interest? Pete Wargent

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<div>The US Federal Reserve is set to lift interest rates for the first time since June 2006.</div>
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<div>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 211,000 jobs in November, while the October result was revised up from +271,000 to a smashing +298,000, and September also saw a positive revision from +137,000 to +145,000 (for a total of +35,000 revisions).</div>
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<div>After 68 consecutive months of employment gains, the Fed is finally ready to hike interest rates following its December 15-16 meeting. <br><br>
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<div><span>Average hourly earnings have increased by 2.3% over the year, with the economy having gained some 13 million jobs since its nadir.</span></div>
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<div><span>Average monthly employment gains this year have been solid at 210,000, although a bit lower than the 260,000 seen in 2014.</span></div>
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<div><span>The unemployment rate was unchanged at a 7.5 year low of 5%.</span></div>
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<div><span>Fed to hike. It's been a while coming!</span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Fed set for lift off: Pete Wargent

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<div><span>Low interest rates are allowing homeowners to forge ahead on repayments. </span></div>
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<span>From the Reserve Bank: "...<span>two-thirds of borrowing is [now] covered by a repayment buffer of at least one month's worth of required mortgage payments, and for half of this, that buffer is more than one year."</span></span><br><span><span><br></span></span><span><span>One third have at least a 12 month buffer, a remarkable statistic.</span></span>
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<div><span>The RBA also found that across every state "all arrears levels are relatively low", with New South Wales the best placed of all thanks to its solid economic performance. </span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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