An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Housing Construction

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As Property Bloom nears it's one hundredth development project, it occurred to me that we, as project managers and our clients as investors/developers, have been contributing to the diversity of main stream housing supply.
What I mean by this is that we build small dwellings - two or three bedroom villas that once subdivided end up on small, manageable lots. The majority of new housing stock is still four or five bedroom family homes.  
I read a document released by the NSW Government Planning and Environment  department about the importance of housing diversity. It mentions the changes occurring in the housing market which are driven by demographics, affordability and lifestyle trends. 
Families are having less children and some choosing not to have any at all, couples are working longer hours leaving less time for property and yard maintenance, there are more single person households than ever before,  first home buyers are looking for more affordable homes and we are living independently  longer and so older people are looking for low maintenance properties.  
Whilst the mainstream consumer is still after the large four to five bedroom homes, there is a definite need for smaller dwellings. In one of the locations we are developing in, there is strong demand by older buyers who want to down size but live close to their kids who have built their four bedroom dream home in this premium estate. There are so few smaller dwelling available that when one does become available there are several buyers vying for it.
So this is what we do, find these areas and meet the demand. There is a need to diversify the types of housing available in new release areas to ensure housing is affordable and meets the needs of all community members.
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

The importance of housing diversity: Jo Chivers

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GUEST OBSERVER
How are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; equipment investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements.
Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of ‘normal’ interest rates; we have done the same with key economic indicators. For each state and territory, latest readings for the key indicators were compared with decade averages – that is, against the ‘normal’ performance.
NSW has retained top spot as the best performing economy, edging a little further ahead of Victoria. Both states are maintaining a healthy lead over the other states and territories.
The big change over the past quarter has been the lift of the ACT economy to equal third position alongside the Northern Territory. Western Australia has dropped from fourth to fifth. But there is little to separate the ACT and the Northern Territory in the second grouping of economies. In the third grouping of state and territory economies, Queensland is sixth ranked, ahead of the South Australia (seventh) and Tasmania (eighth).
 
 
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<img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.38.04%20AM.png" alt="" width="749" height="620">
NSW has retained its top rankings on population growth, retail trade, dwelling starts and housing finance but now adds unemployment and equipment investment to the list. NSW is still fourth-ranked on construction work done and fifth ranked on economic growth.
Victoria has lost a little ground on NSW but is solidly in second spot on the economic performance rankings. Victoria’s main strengths are population growth and housing finance (second ranked) and dwelling starts and retail trade (third ranked on each indicator).
The Northern Territory remains the third ranked economy, but now shares that position with the other territory – the Australian Capital Territory.
Northern Territory is top ranked on construction work done and is second ranked on economic growth, business investment and unemployment. But the ‘top end’ economy is last ranked on population growth and housing finance.
The ACT economy lifted to equal third courtesy of improved rankings on equipment investment and dwelling starts. The ACT is also third ranked on economic growth, population growth and housing finance. Western Australia is in fifth spot on the economic performance rankings. While top ranked on economic growth, it is bottom ranked on equipment investment and unemployment.
Queensland is now in sixth position on the economic performance table. Best rankings are retail trade and dwelling starts (fourth ranked on each indicator). South Australia remains in seventh spot on the economic performance rankings.
South Australia does best on population growth and housing finance (both fourth ranked) but is seventh or eighth on three indicators. Tasmania remains at the bottom of the Australian economic performance table. Tasmania is third ranked on unemployment (previously first) and weakened from third to sixth on housing finance.
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<img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.42.20%20AM.png" alt="">
Ideally gross state product (GSP) would be used to assess broad economic growth. But the data isn’t available quarterly. Rather, state final demand (household and business spending) is added to exports less imports to act as a proxy for GSP.
Exclusion of the trade sector would provide an incorrect assessment of growth for economies such as Western Australia and Queensland. The only major change in the rankings since the last quarter has been at the top of the leader-board with Western Australia now on top from Northern Territory.
Now while economic growth has slowed in both economies over the past year, the current level of economic activity is still higher than the ‘normal’ or decade-average level of output in percentage terms than the comparison for other economies.
Western Australian output is just under 19 per cent higher than the decade average level of output, from Northern Territory (18.1 per cent), ACT (up 11.6 per cent), Victoria (up 10.8 per cent) and NSW (up 10.1 per cent).
At the other end of the scale, economic activity in Tasmania in the September quarter was just 1.6 per cent above its decade average, while South Australian activity was higher by 8 per cent and Queensland economic activity up by 9.2 per cent.
Victoria now has the fastest annual economic growth rate in the nation, up by 3.4 per cent on a year ago, ahead of ACT with 2.6 per cent and Tasmania (2.3 per cent). By contrast, the Northern Territory economy is down 13.9 per cent on a year ago, while Western Australian economic activity is down 1.6 per cent on a year ago with the Queensland economy down 0.2 per cent on a year ago.
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<img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.44.56%20AM.png" alt="" width="807" height="337">
The measure used was real (inflation-adjusted) retail trade in trend terms with September quarter data the latest available. NSW has held on to the top spot on the retail rankings from Western Australia and Victoria with spending in the September quarter 17.0 per cent above decade-average levels. Solid activity in the housing sector, lower unemployment and higher home prices are supporting spending.
Spending in Western Australia was 14.3 per cent above decade-average levels with a legacy of the mining boom – higher income levels – supporting spending. Spending in Victoria was up 13.8 per cent on the decade average followed by Queensland (up 11.5 per cent).
In fifth spot was the Northern Territory with spending 10.5 per cent above decade averages. Tasmania continues to record the weakest result on retail spending, up 6.8 per cent on the decade average, just below South Australia with 6.9 per cent growth and the ACT with 8.3 per cent growth.
If monthly retail trade was assessed instead to calculate the rankings (November data available), the rankings would be slightly different with Victoria in second spot and South Australia in eighth position. In terms of annual growth of real retail trade, Victoria is strongest, up 4.0 per cent, from NSW, up 3.7 per cent, and South Australia, up 3.6 per cent.
And looking at monthly retail trade, the strongest annual growth is again in Victoria (up 5.8 per cent) from Tasmania (up 4.8 per cent) and NSW (up 4.7 per cent).
NSW is now on top on equipment investment from the Northern Territory, further highlighting the transition in the economy after the resources boom. Equipment spending in the September quarter was just under 5 per cent above ‘normal’ – or decade-average levels.
In the June quarter Northern Territory equipment spending was 20.2 per cent above decade-averages. Now spending is up by just 1.5 per cent. South Australia has held onto third spot, up 1.2 per cent above decade-average levels, followed by ACT (up 0.2 per cent). By contrast, other states and territories had equipment spending below decade averages in the September quarter.
Weakest was Western Australia (down 30.5 per cent) followed by Tasmania (down 17.0 per cent) and Queensland (down 10.1 per cent). Equipment spending in Victoria was down on decade average levels, but just by 1.5 per cent. On a shorter-run analysis, equipment investment in the September quarter was higher than a year ago in only three of the state and territory economies (last quarter, five states and territories had equipment spending up on a year ago).
Equipment investment is up the most on a year ago in the ACT (up 12.6 per cent), followed by Tasmania (up 7.8 per cent) and Victoria (up 2.7 per cent). By contrast new equipment investment in the Northern Territory was down 30.6 per cent on a year ago while spending in Western Australia was down 30.1 per cent with Queensland down 10.3 per cent. 
<a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.47.32%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.47.32%20AM.png" alt="" width="757" height="302">
Which state or territory has the strongest job market in the nation? It is not an easy question to answer. The lowest trend unemployment rate in Australia can be found in the Northern Territory at 4.1 per cent from NSW and the ACT at 5.2 per cent. But the ACT jobless rate is over 44 per cent above its decade average. And Northern Territory’s jobless rate is 0.7 per cent above its decade average (“normal”) jobless rate.
However the NSW jobless rate is actually 2.4 per cent lower than the decade average. In further comparing current jobless rates in each state and territory with their respective decade averages, Tasmania follows NSW and Northern Territory, its 6.6 per cent jobless rate is 8.7 per cent above the decade average.
In Victoria, unemployment stands at 5.9 per cent, up 9.0 per cent on its decade average of 5.4 per cent. At the other end of the scale is Western Australia. Trend unemployment stands at 6.4 per cent, 47.8 per cent higher than the 4.3 per cent ‘normal’ or decade-average. Next weakest is the ACT – as noted above the trend unemployment rate is 44.4 per cent above the decade average.
South Australia’s jobless rate is 28 per cent above the decade average, while Queensland is mid pack – its 5.9 per cent jobless rate is up 12.5 per cent on the ‘normal’ level. Unemployment rates in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Northern Territory have all eased in trend terms in the past three months.
The measure used for analysis was the total real value of residential, commercial and engineering work actually completed in trend terms in the September quarter. In five of the states and territories, construction work was higher than decade averages.
Leading the way was the Northern Territory with construction work done almost 117 per cent above its decade average with activity associated with the gas projects providing solid support. Next strongest was Western Australia (up 35.1 per cent) while construction work done in Victoria was up by 17.2 per cent on ‘normal’ levels in trend terms. Construction work done in both economies was well up on a year ago in the September quarter.
NSW is fourth ranked with construction work 7.2 per cent above decade averages. Tasmania is fifth ranked with construction work 0.7 per cent above ‘normal’ levels. In Queensland, overall new construction work completed in the September quarter was almost 19 per cent below the decade average, weaker than the 11 per cent decline recorded in the June quarter.
Next weakest to Queensland was the ACT where construction work was 12.1 per cent below decade averages, followed by South Australia (down 1.6 per cent). In terms of annual growth rates, Western Australian construction work done in the September quarter was up 13.3 per cent on a year ago, followed by Victoria, up 11.5 per cent. Other economies had construction work lower than a year ago, led by Queensland, down by 30.5 per cent – the biggest annual decline in records going back over 26 years.
<a href="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.49.58%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-27%20at%209.49.58%20AM.png" alt="" width="698" height="299">
The measure used was the trend number of dwelling commencements (starts) with the comparison made to the decade-average level of starts. Starts are driven in part by population growth and housing finance and can affect retail trade, unemployment and overall economic growth. However any over-building or under-building in previous years can affect the current level of starts.
The outlook for home building remains strong over the next year but a slowdown can be expected later in 2016 as the surge in the supply of new homes meets pent-up demand. The slowdown in population growth will also restrain future home building. NSW retains the mantle of the strongest in the nation for new home construction, with starts almost 72 per cent above decade averages.
In addition, in the September quarter the number of dwellings started was 24.6 per cent higher than a year earlier. The ACT has replaced Victoria in second spot, with starts 48.2 per cent above decade averages. Victorian starts are 38.3 per cent above decade averages and Queensland starts are up 26.7 per cent. At the other end of the scale, South Australian dwelling starts were 3.0 per cent below decade averages.
And in the September quarter starts were down 2.6 per cent on a year earlier. Next weakest was Northern Territory (down 2.8 per cent from decade highs) from Tasmania (up 12.6 per cent on the decade average) and Western Australia (up 16.1 per cent on the decade average). In terms of annual growth, the ACT is strongest with dwelling starts at record highs in trend terms in the September quarter, up 44.3 per cent on a year ago.
In the June quarter, NSW was alone in recording a fall in real wages. However in the September quarter, wage growth in all states and territories was above that of consumer prices.
Strongest real wage growth was again recorded in the Northern Territory with wages 2.0 percentage points (pp) higher than consumer prices. Wage growth was second highest in the nation while inflation was the lowest. Real wage growth was next highest in three economies – Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania – with wages 1.2pp above consumer prices (inflation).
At the other end of the scale, NSW wage growth of 2.2 per cent was just above the 1.9 per cent annual growth of prices. Despite that, retail spending still remains firm in NSW. Real wages remains only modestly positive in Queensland (+0.5pp) and Western Australia (+0.9pp).
Turning to home prices, in December four of the capital cities had positive annual growth of home prices. Back in June, similarly four of Australia’s capital cities had home prices higher than a year earlier. Strongest growth in home prices was in Sydney (up 11.5 per cent) followed by Melbourne (up 11.2 per cent) and then there was a fair gap to the other capital cities. Next strongest were Brisbane and Canberra with prices in both cities up 4.1 per cent on a year ago. Home prices were lower than a year ago in Perth (down 3.7 per cent), Darwin (down 3.6 per cent), Hobart (down 0.7 per cent), and Adelaide (down 0.1 per cent).
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Currently we look at eight indicators to get the broadest assessment of economic performance. If we added new motor vehicle registrations to the list the only change in the overall economic rankings would be the ACT taking third position on its own.
NSW has a solid grip on the top ranking of economic performance. Unemployment has improved while population growth is above long-term averages, thus providing solid momentum to the economy.
Victoria also still has a strong grip on the second ranking but hasn’t been able to narrow the gap with NSW. Victoria still has the strongest population growth in the nation, underpinning retail and housing activity.
The ACT has been the big improver in the rankings and a sharp lift in dwelling starts is a clear reason for the improvement. Stronger housing activity will support the job market and retail spending over 2016.
The Northern Territory will face challenges in the next few years as key resource projects are either completed or near completion. Slow population growth, weak demand for housing loans and a sharp fall in dwelling starts will constrain economic momentum. Western Australia continues to slip in the performance rankings, having relinquished top spot in October 2014.
Slower population growth and higher unemployment will constrain activity in the housing market. Queensland remains in the third tier of economies alongside South Australia and Tasmania. Encouragingly, however, unemployment has fallen to two-year lows in trend terms.
And dwelling starts have lifted to 7½ year highs. The South Australian job market has improved in the past eight months. If the positive trend continues, then there is scope for an improvement in retail spending. The Tasmanian economy continues to struggle for momentum. In October, trend unemployment had fallen to near 4-year lows. While unemployment has lifted in the past two months, real wage growth remains healthy.
Craig James is chief economist, CommSec and Savanth Sebastian is economist, CommSec. Both can be contacted <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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CommSec's State of the States shows NSW as best performing economy: Craig James

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New apartment sales dropped 15.1 per cent nationallyï¿½in November 2015, according to theï¿½Housing Industry Associationï¿½sï¿½new home sales report,ï¿½released on Thursday.
HIA chief economist Harley Dale said it was a ï¿½confluence of factorsï¿½ that droveï¿½the home construction decline, with aï¿½steeperï¿½descent apparent for the ï¿½multi-unitï¿½ market compared to detached houses.
The HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australiaï¿½s largest volume builders, showed a third consecutive decline in November 2015.
ï¿½A confluence of factors is driving a decline in leading indicators of new home construction.
"The lagged effect of slowing population growth, an up-tick in variable mortgage costs, over-reach on the part of APRAï¿½s credit controls, and an easing in property price growth in Sydney and Melbourne are all in play,ï¿½ said Dr Harley Dale.
"In a welcome sign for the short term residential outlook, leading indicators such as HIAï¿½s new home sales didnï¿½t fall sharply in the second half of 2015."
HIA new homes sales fell by 2.7 per cent in November 2015, a result driven by a 15.1 per cent drop in ï¿½multi-unitï¿½ sales.
Detached house sales increased by 1.1 per cent due to a stronger November across the eastern seaboard.
Over the three months to November last year detached house sales fell by 4.1 per cent while the sale of multi-units dropped by 11.8 per cent.
In the month of November 2015 detached house sales increased in three out of the five mainland states.
Detached house sales increased by 8.0 per cent in Queensland, 3.3 per cent in Victoria, and 0.7 per cent in New South Wales. Detached house sales fell by 1.0 per cent in South Australia and by 9.0 per cent in Western Australia.
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HIA's Harley Dale blames APRA credit over-reach for housing construction decline

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GUEST OBSERVER
The March quarter 2016 ANZ-Property Council Survey shows that the property sector is expecting much slower growth in housing construction and house prices across most markets in the coming year. 
This highlights the challenge that weaker growth from the housing market will present for the Australian economy in 2016.
However, the survey also revealed a slight increase in property sector confidence, with the sharp decline in housing market confidence being offset by both a solid pipeline of planned work for property businesses in 2016 and an optimistic outlook for commercial property.
Despite weaker housing sales activity in recent months and a sharp decline in house price growth expectations, the ANZ-Property Council Survey showed continued strong demand for Australian housing from foreign investors. In future, this measure may be impacted by tighter foreign investor policy enforcement by the Australian government (effective from 1 December 2015) and the recent volatility in China’s financial markets.
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The housing sector, which plays an important role in shaping the Australian economic cycle, will likely be less stimulatory for growth in 2016 than in 2015. The ANZ-PropertyCouncil Survey shows that in the largest, and until recently strongest, state housing market of New South Wales, there has been a tempering of confidence and indications of the forward work schedule have also become more muted. 
Most other states and territories are steadier though, with evidence of a continued improvement in confidence in Victoria and Queensland. This is consistent with our view that there will not be a significant downturn, but a more muted profile for housing construction and prices this year. The exceptions are Western Australia, where planned business activity and confidence continue to deteriorate, and Tasmania, which has shown a significant pick-up from a low base in recent quarters.
Overall, the housing sector’s contribution to growth will ease through softer construction activity and a reduced ‘wealth effect’ on Australian households from weaker price growth. The recent ANZ-Property Council Survey results show that tighter regulation of investor mortgage lending and higher mortgage lending rates have weighed on housing market sentiment. 
This has also become evident in weaker mortgage lending data through the second half of 2015. Today’s survey data suggests that the property industry is bracing for higher interest rates and more prudent credit distribution by lenders. We expect, however, that the Reserve Bank may provide some relief for the economy this year, through interest rate cuts, if other sectors do not pick up to compensate for the slower path of housing.
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Cherelle Murphy is co-head of Australian Economics, ANZ. David Cannington is senior economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
 
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Housing may be the little engine that can't any longer: ANZ Research

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This week, I came across a couple of quotes that really resonated with me. They were both around giving. 
It's funny but developing property in a way can be very 'taking'. What I mean by this is that you are always trying to get something more like a better deal or cheaper cost, a faster timeframe or a better sale price or rent.
But I've found over the years, if you give first then it becomes a far more enjoyable journey.
The first quote is from Robert Kiyosaki, the famous author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad. I read this book 15 years ago and it changed my life.
"Teach and you shall receive."
I think he's used a twist on a well known biblical quote 'Ask and you shall receive'. Maybe he was thinking along the lines of teaching so they didn't have to ask?  
Teaching someone is giving them the gift of your knowledge and experience and it's one of the many tips that Kiyosaki shares throughout the book. His words are eloquent concerning this idea: “There are powers in this world that are much smarter than we are. You can get there on your own, but it’s easier with the help of the powers that be. All you need to be is generous with what you have, and the powers will be generous with you.”
I call these "powers that be" the Universe and for me it is a powerful thing.
The other quote I liked is from Mike Dooley, author and entrepreneur - "Every time you give, whether it's your time, your compassion or your financial abundance, you're saying 'I am provided for'."
He's talking about leveraging the Universe and he says giving is powerful because it's a physical act that can demonstrate you know you're ok and that you have enough and it's this sentiment or perhaps energy that manifests for you.
Giving is such a simple thing we can all include in our everyday lives. It can be the smallest gift of a compliment that may make someone's moment a bit brighter.
Relating this back to property development, I do try to incorporate giving into our business. We hope what we give to our clients - time, knowledge and experience meets a number of their needs and helps them move towards financial freedom. Our clients pay us for our service but it's the extra thing - education - that we incorporate into this service in the hope they'll be able to use it sometime in the future.
I also hope by writing each week that I'm sharing something with those who read my stories. When I sit down and wonder what I'm going to write about today, I always try and make it come from my heart as well as my head and hope the information may help someone with what they are trying to achieve. 
 
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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Teach and you shall give: Jo Chivers

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In the past week the ABS released its Construction Activity figures for the June 2015 quarter, which pull together data on building and engineering construction.
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<div>As you can see below total construction surprised in jumping back up by a seasonally adjusted +1.8% in Q2 to sit above $50 billion in chain volume measures terms.</div>
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<div>The rebound was driven by a surge in engineering construction (see the blue shaded area in the graphic below), which rose by +5.7% in the quarter, although with fewer large projects in the pipeline this sector will soon enough resume its inevitable decline over the next couple of years. </div>
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<div>Given the sheer size of the engineering construction sector at $26.7 billion of work done in the June quarter, the downturn is will continue to act as a material drag on economic growth for quite some time.</div>
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<div>The red shaded area below shows that residential building work declined in the June quarter by -2.9% to $14.7 billion, despite still being up by +7.6% over the year. </div>
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<div>Non-residential building, denoted by the yellow shaded area below, has not really contributed a great deal to growth, having actually declined by -1.2% over the past year. </div>
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<div>Apartment approvals to decline</div>
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<div>While there is still a high volume of residential building approvals in the pipeline - which is expected to see housing starts remain strong across the next financial year - it appears that the peak in construction activity may be in for the cycle.</div>
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<div>Although defaults relating to apartment pre-sales have been low to date and indicators of household financial stress benign, developers will be increasingly reticent to lend against high density projects in certain inner city areas, particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
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<div>If you take a walk around Fortitude Valley/Newstead (see my photos <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/cranewatch-newstead" target="_blank">here</a> for an idea of what I'm referring to), or West End/South Brisbane (see my photos <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/brisbane-apartments-part-deux" target="_blank">here</a> for more of the same) it is not hard to see why, with building approvals as a percentage of existing dwelling stock already tracking at an elevated level. Brisbane CBD faces similar challenges as I looked at with some photos <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/brisbane-apartments" target="_blank">here</a>, as does Melbourne in certain inner city locations.</div>
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<div>The is a glut of apartment building coming online in these areas which will see vacancy rates rise and rents fall, and it follows there is no requirement for further apartment approvals.</div>
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<div>Indeed, we already know that DA lodgements in Brisbane began to fall quite sharply earlier in the year. </div>
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<div>This is one of the risks identified by the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2015/oct/html/contents" target="_blank">Reserve Bank</a> of a property cycle which is driven largely by investors - speculative demand can lead to a sharp supply response. </div>
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<div>In this case it comes in the guise of rapid increase in construction activity in the apartment sector, and in turn a future supply overhang.</div>
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<div>Implications</div>
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<div>While work in the pipeline should keep residential building activity humming along at a historically high level - and a boom in major renovations work could even see total residential activity rise a little from here - there appears to be little hope that the sector can contribute a great deal more to economic growth than it already has.</div>
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<div>Since engineering construction is also set to decline over the next couple of years, it is perhaps little wonder that future markets are beginning to look for further interest rate cuts (plural) towards a cash rate of just 1.50%. </div>
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<div>While forecasters are expecting the economy to grow at a moderate pace in Q3, on the evidence of the above numbers there could potentially be some downside risk, particularly if resources construction resumes its contraction. </div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Residential construction peak: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVER
The latest ABS housing figures confirm the new home building sector as the star performer of the Australian economy.
Despite a modest decline in new dwelling commencements in the June 2015 quarter, there was still a record number of 211,976 new homes started in 2014/15 – an increase of 16.9%. 
That is a phenomenal result which caps three consecutive years of growth for new home building – only the fifth time in the last 60 years that this feat has been achieved.
Through its broad reach the new home building sector has delivered a strong economic dividend to Australia during a period when many other sectors of the economy have struggled. 
New dwelling commencements will fall in 2015/16, but should remain elevated at what would still be the second highest level on record.
The key to the short term prospects for new home building is how much work in the pipeline is converted into actual activity – it’s not coming through as quickly now. 
An orderly decline in commencements in 2015/16 remains the most likely outcome. However, the credit rationing aimed at curbing investor activity is having a broad impact and risks generating a sharper fall.
The ABS figures show there were 53,314 dwellings commenced during the June 2015 quarter, a decline of 3.2% from an upwardly revised March quarter. Detached house commencements fell by 2.9% in the June 2015 quarter to 28,046, while ‘other dwelling’ commencements declined by 4.9% to 24,482.
The profile for national dwelling commencements continues to mask large regional differences. In the June 2015 quarter new dwelling commencements increased in South Australia (+12.0%), Tasmania (+54.0%), and the Australian Capital Territory (+76.4%). Commencements fell in New South Wales (-1.6%), Victoria (-0.5%), Queensland (-9.6%), Western Australia (-10.5%), and the Northern Territory (-36.1%). 
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Harley Dale is chief economist, HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/BusinessInfo/economicInfo/EcoGroup.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>.
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New home building sector is the star performer: HIA's Harley Dale

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published building approvals data for August 2015 earlier this week.  The data showed a month-on-month fall in approvals driven by a sharp drop in the number of unit approvals.  Keep in mind that unit approvals tend to be much more volatile than house approvals on a monthly basis.
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Over the month there were 18,071 dwelling approvals which was a decline of -6.9% over the month.  Dwelling approvals hit a record high of 20,215 approvals in March 2015 and they are now -7.5% lower.  It does appear that approvals have peaked notwithstanding the fact that they remain at historically high levels.
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<img src="/images/2015/10/06/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
There were 9,882 houses and 8,819 units approved for construction in August 2015.  House approvals actually increased by 4.4% over the month while unit approvals fell by -16.9%.  Year-on-year house approvals have increased by 2.2% compared to an 8.4% lift in unit approvals.  To further highlight the volatility of unit approvals the 8.4% year-on-year increase in August is well down on the 44.2% year-on-year rise in July.  Although it looks as if approvals have peaked it would not surprise to see a sharp rebound in unit approvals next month.
Across the country there was a record high 226,415 dwellings approved for construction over the 12 months to August 2015.  To put the magnitude of approvals in perspective, two years ago over the year to August 2013 there had been 166,658 dwelling approvals nationally.  There has also been a surge in unit approvals over recent years with a record high 48.8% of all dwelling approvals nationally being for units over the past year.  Again, 2 years ago units accounted for 42.5% of all approvals over the year.
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It isn’t just the fact that more units are being built, the type of units being constructed is changing dramatically.  Over the 12 months to August 2015, 25.7% of all unit approvals were for townhouses, 10.1% were low rise (less than 4 storeys) and 64.3% were high-rise (4 storeys or more).  The above chart shows that historically townhouses have received the highest proportion of approvals.  Trends have changed quite swiftly, 2 years ago just 49.2% of all unit approvals were high-rise.  The rise in high-rise approvals is reflective of higher densities within our inner city markets.  High rise unit projects also take longer to build than a house or townhouse and as a result the economic benefit is stretched over a longer period.  Of course the fact that we are approving high-rise units at an unprecedented pace also creates some challenges.  Most notably who are buying these properties and over the longer term who is going to live in these units.
The data indicates that dwelling approvals have probably peaked for the current phase however, the number of approvals remains elevated.  This has created a significant pipeline of new construction much of which is high-rise and will take some time to complete.  Because unit development is so dependent upon presales it will be interesting to see just how many of these units are ultimately built.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Dwelling approvals remain elevated but fall in August: Cameron Kusher 

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Brisbane's 'Manhattan-isation' continues at a staggering rate according to the September Month in Review from Herron Todd White, who see the construction of tall residential towers to continue popping up over the next few years.
The report estimated between seven and ten years of housing supply currently in the pipeline and mentioned the possibility of hitting a saturation point soon and noted CBD urbanisation will continue due to demand from hipsters and empty-nesters.
According to HTW, one bedroom units without car spaces making their mark. 
"This design means a lower buy-in price point for inner-city abodes, particularly for those single- and couple-residents, and investors that are looking to tap into these tenants," the report noted.
"There are a lot of analysts and observers speculating that our market will be the next capital-city boom. As a consequence, supply of investor style, off-the-plan stock is on the rise and the full impact of the oversupply situation may not become apparent until after many of these buildings are completed in some 12 to 18 months.
"Add to this the recent changes from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority which will curb lending to investors through tougher qualifying criteria and more onerous risk assessment. This is all within an environment of softening rental demand as well, and there are plenty of investors who may not see their initial rent yields maintained."
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Brisbane's Manhattan-isation continues: Herron Todd White

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The value of new residential construction work completed fell nationally by 3% in seasonal terms for the June 2015 quarter according to the latest ABS Construction Work Done release. 
For the 12 months to June 30 however, the value of new residential construction work done had improved by 10.6% across the country largely due to more significant annual improvements in the value of residential work completed in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. 
The figures underscore the important role residential construction work is playing right now in supporting the broader Australian economy.
The activity underway is still very strong, however the drop over the quarter posted by most states could be signs of a slowing in commencements. 
This is something to watch as we can’t afford to see new construction levels weaken. Maintaining high activity is crucial to keep pace with housing demand, population growth and job creation. 
States such as Queensland and South Australia posted declines in the value of work done in the June quarter of 10.2% and 16.2% respectively which needs to be monitored over the forward updates. 
The value of residential construction work done in Queensland is the best it’s been since 2010, however the 2015 result still sits below the ten year annual average. 
The ABS data shows good annualised levels of activity is flowing through the residential industry and the industry is in the midst of a strong patch but supply side efficiencies will be needed to support this activity long term. 
Governments need to focus on supply side efficiencies in land release, improvements to development assessment and reform of inefficient taxes such as stamp duty to create prosperity, jobs and strong communities.
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<img src="/images/2015/08/26/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-26%20at%2010.56.47%20PM.png" alt="" width="806" height="373">
Nick Proud is residential executive director, Property Council of Australia and can be contacted<a href="https://www.propertyoz.com.au" target="_blank"> here</a>.
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