<p>The long-awaited redevelopment of the former Eastlakes Shopping Centre site has reached a major milestone, with Conquest's plans for a new mixed-use precinct officially placed on public exhibition.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application would transform the 1.7-hectare site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/19a-evans-avenue-eastlakes-nsw-2018">19A Evans Avenue</a> into one of Sydney's largest urban renewal projects, delivering 736 apartments above a new shopping centre anchored by Woolworths, alongside specialty retail, dining, commercial space and new public open spaces.</p>

<p>The public exhibition marks the next chapter for the project after <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/conquest">Conquest</a> acquired the stalled Stage Two development from Crown Group, who completed the first stage across the road prior to their voluntary liquidation.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5fca22c5-d1ed-4e2c-8801-03f7df1eafc8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland%20podium.png?VersionId=uomwr41nF8CmLUZRDcu3mHQechlbxucS" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by DKO Architecture, the proposal comprises four residential buildings ranging from 14 to 18 storeys above a two-level retail podium. The development would deliver 736 apartments, including 74 affordable homes, 215 Build-to-Rent apartments and 521 market residences. Provision has also been made for dual-key apartments, which could increase the total number of dwellings to 877.</p>

<p>At ground level, the shopping centre has been designed as the suburb's new meeting place, anchored by a full-line Woolworths and complemented by a curated mix of fresh food retailers, cafés, restaurants, health services and everyday convenience shopping. Generous pedestrian links and landscaped public spaces will connect the retail precinct through to Jack Mundey Reserve, creating a more walkable and connected neighbourhood.</p>

<p>Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.</p>

<p>"Eastlakes has been overlooked for too long, and this is the community’s moment. We are building a shopping centre and homes, a genuine heart for the suburb, and we genuinely want locals to help shape it."</p>

<p>"We enrich communities through the creation of homes, places, and experiences designed for life, built to last, and owner for generations. That starts with listening, so we warmly encourage everyone with a connection to Eastlakes to view the plans and share their thoughts."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Conquest unveils plans for 736-home Eastlakes Shopping Centre redevelopment" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="22f6fb20-54fb-4bd7-8a92-48fafdd00608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/eastland.png?VersionId=cugp7s9hrMHGJJdYzkeAkrFoQgnF4GXf" /></p>

<p>DKO said the design had been shaped by the site's landscape setting and surrounding open space.</p>

<p>"Our vision for the site embraces its unique Bidjigal identity by blending the residential living with generous landscaping and a material palette inspired by the Bidjigal locality, and celebrating the panoramic views to Botany Bay and the wetlands reserves."</p>

<p>"Taking cues from Country, we seek to harmonise built form with the landscape and lightly touch the earth. By reconnecting, retaining and regenerating existing ecology, and weaving in natural elements, we can deepen our connection to Country."</p>

<p>The landscape strategy extends across the podium and rooftops, incorporating communal gardens, children's play areas, lawns, community gardens, family gathering spaces and extensive tree planting. New landscaped links will also strengthen the connection between the precinct and Jack Mundey Reserve, while publicly accessible open spaces have been integrated throughout the development.</p>

<p>The proposal builds on Conquest's broader placemaking strategy for the site. Through an ongoing partnership, local artist Joe Rashbrook has been appointed Urban Art Curator, working alongside young residents to transform the project's site hoardings into a public art gallery that allows the community to engage with the redevelopment before construction is complete.</p>

<p>Conquest has rapidly expanded its development pipeline since acquiring the Eastlakes site, with more than $6 billion worth of mixed-use projects now in planning across Sydney, including Stanmore, Castlecrag and Waterloo.</p>


Conquest CEO Michael Akkawi said the redevelopment was about far more than replacing a shopping centre.

Joel Robinson

First look: ‘Far more than replacing a shopping centre’ as Conquest unveils 736-home Eastlakes redevelopment

<p>Abadeen has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for one of Mosman's largest apartment developments in recent years, seeking approval to transform the former Honeysuckle Garden and Midas site on Military Road into a 100-apartment mixed-use development.</p>

<p>The SSDA, lodged with investment partner Phoenix Property Investors, proposes around $230 million worth of new housing on the prominent <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/494-516-military-road-mosman-nsw-2088">494-516 Military Road</a> site.</p>

<p>The proposal comes as Mosman Council continues to progress its recently endorsed Masterplan, which identifies the precinct for increased housing density while maintaining the suburb's established character.</p>

<p>Designed by DKO Architecture, the development would comprise 100 apartments above ground-floor retail, with a rooftop wellness precinct including a gym, sauna, entertaining areas and landscaped communal spaces.</p>

<p>Rather than pushing to the full 12-storey height identified in Council's Masterplan, the proposal ranges between five and nine storeys, stepping down towards Hale Road. A tenth level would accommodate resident amenities rather than additional apartments.</p>

<p>The project has been designed to appeal to a broad range of buyers, from first home buyers and young professionals through to families and local downsizers looking to remain on the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p><img alt="Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5dada03f-5b4c-43ba-ba62-2868add31440" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-27%20at%209.57.55%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7LBy0B.Jo8_iWAFJsClcV7Q3UnXrv49r" /></p>

<p>Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown said the apartments had been designed as genuine long-term homes rather than investor-focused stock.</p>

<p>"The apartments have been designed as genuine long-term homes, with efficient floorplans that maximise usable living areas, generous storage, natural light and strong connections between indoor and outdoor spaces," Brown says."</p>

<p>"We've focused on creating homes for a broad range of buyers, from first home buyers and growing families through to downsizers who want to remain in Mosman."</p>

<p>The rooftop wellness offering forms a key part of the proposal, with residents set to have access to a gym, sauna, outdoor entertaining spaces, communal dining areas, landscaped gardens and a multi-use recreation court overlooking Sydney Harbour.</p>

<p><img alt="Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d37c2d6b-583a-4a0f-b7a9-9f46b893d2f4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-27%20at%209.58.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=FPoa5FCm2RtzjhAh2w5FTWJbV6GHfY8D" /></p>

<p>DKO drew heavily on the site's natural and cultural history, undertaking a Connecting with Country process with local Aboriginal Elders to inform the architectural and landscape design.</p>

<p>Senior Associate Matthew Ritchard said the design sought to create a building that responded to both the site's landscape and its cultural significance.</p>

<p>"The architectural language of the project is a deep expression of Connecting with Country, where the materiality and colour palette serve as a bridge between the site's geological history and its future as a residential sanctuary."</p>

<p>The proposal also retains the site's established blue gum tree as the centrepiece of the communal landscaped gardens, while introducing activated retail fronting Military Road to strengthen the connection between Mosman and Cremorne villages.</p>

<p>If approved, the project would deliver 100 new homes within walking distance of shops, public transport, schools and local amenities, adding to the limited pipeline of new apartments on the Lower North Shore.</p>

<h2>Project Snapshot</h2>

<p><strong>Project:</strong> Honeysuckle Garden Redevelopment</p>

<p><strong>Address:</strong> 494-516 Military Road, Mosman</p>

<p><strong>Developer:</strong> Abadeen and Phoenix Property Investors</p>

<p><strong>Architect:</strong> DKO Architecture</p>

<p><strong>Lead Architect:</strong> Matthew Ritchard</p>

<p><strong>Value:</strong> $230 million</p>

<p><strong>Residences:</strong> 100 apartments</p>

<p><strong>Key features:</strong></p>

<ul>
	<li>
	<p>Ground-floor retail</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Rooftop wellness precinct</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Gym and sauna</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Outdoor entertaining and BBQ areas</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Landscaped communal gardens</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Multi-use recreation court</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Retained mature blue gum tree</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Connecting with Country design process</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>Harbour, CBD and Balmoral views from upper-level apartments</p>
	</li>
</ul>


Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown said the apartments had been designed as genuine long-term homes rather than investor-focused stock

First look: Abadeen plans 100 apartments on former Honeysuckle Garden site in Mosman

<p>The wave of apartment proposals sweeping through Mosman shows no signs of slowing, with another major residential development lodged through the NSW Government's State Significant Development pathway.</p>

<p>Developer First Quadrant Properties, which recently completed Willoughby Grounds and has several projects in planning across the North Shore, has unveiled plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cove-on-ourimbah-40-56-ourimbah-road-mosman-nsw-2088">Cove on Ourimbah</a>, a 63-apartment development on Ourimbah Road, adding to the growing pipeline of projects reshaping one of Sydney's most tightly held harbour suburbs.</p>

<p>The proposal would consolidate nine properties at 40-56 Ourimbah Road into a part eight, part nine-storey apartment building, continuing the momentum created by the NSW Government's accelerated planning pathways that have seen several significant developments emerge across Mosman over the past 12 months.</p>

<p>Designed by Doroch Architects, the project would deliver 63 apartments, resident wellness facilities including a gym, pool and sauna, landscaped communal spaces and basement parking, while using recessed upper levels, generous setbacks and extensive planting to reduce the perceived scale of the building.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: First Quadrant Properties eyes nine-storey Mosman apartment project under State Significant pathway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32ee68e4-141e-4a10-8f83-48e961a5e71e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Ourimbah%20Road%2C%20Mosman%20a.png?VersionId=CUeILFc6APlwXPc.iplElbxHvREKwjig" /></p>

<p>Doroch Architects said the building had been designed to reinforce Mosman's established character.</p>

<p>"The building's aesthetic is grounded in the existing residential character of Ourimbah Road and the broader Mosman context," the architect noted in the planning documents submitted to the NSW Government.</p>

<p>The design adopts a contemporary material palette of natural stone, textured concrete and brown concave metal cladding, complemented by integrated planters and deep balconies. The podium incorporates softened curved concrete forms, while increased setbacks have been provided adjacent to the heritage-listed property at 60 Ourimbah Road to create a more sympathetic transition.</p>

<p>The site sits around 330 metres from Mosman Town Centre, placing it within the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy area, where increased residential density is being encouraged close to shops, transport and services.</p>

<p>The proposal follows a string of major apartment projects lodged or declared State Significant in Mosman in recent months, including Abadeen's 100-apartment Honeysuckle Garden redevelopment on Military Road and several other developments across Awaba Street, Redan Street and Muston Street from the likes of Time &amp; Place, HELM and Prosker Property.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Time &amp; Place to take on Mosman apartment market</a></em></p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-abadeen-plans-100-apartments-on-former-honeysuckle-garden-site-in-mosman">First look: Abadeen plans 100 apartments on former Honeysuckle Garden site in Mosman</a></em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: Another major apartment proposal signals Mosman's development boom

<p>A new State Significant Development Application (SSDA) could reshape a prominent vacant site in Gosford's CBD, with Ming Tian Real Property proposing a mixed-use precinct that combines affordable housing, retail activation and a new public plaza.</p>

<p>The proposal for 43-45 Beane Street and 2 Keevers Lane would deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/43-45-beane-street-gosford-nsw-2250">two-building development</a> comprising a 26-storey residential tower and a five-storey affordable housing building above ground-floor commercial space. A key focus of the project is the delivery of dedicated affordable housing alongside new public domain improvements designed to transform Keevers Lane into a more active urban destination.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/tony-owen-partners">Tony Owen Partners</a>, the development would provide 130 apartments, including 20 affordable housing dwellings managed by a registered community housing provider for at least 15 years. The market housing component comprises 110 apartments across a mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences, while the affordable housing includes six one-bedroom, 13 two-bedroom and one three-bedroom apartment. The proposal also incorporates 416 sqm of ground-floor retail, three basement levels accommodating 140 car spaces, 42 bicycle spaces, communal open space and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ming Tian Real Property plans landmark affordable housing tower for Gosford city centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9b858791-9060-4ee7-9178-44cb9e640a85" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Beane%20Street%20b_0.png?VersionId=_jbY0mqPEs7.jBZxozR7d6T4u85FoPmb" /></p>

<p>The affordable housing component has been distributed across both buildings, with four apartments located within the main tower and a dedicated five-storey building delivering a further 16 affordable homes. The project also includes 12 adaptable apartments and 24 dwellings designed to Silver Level Liveable Housing Guidelines.</p>

<p>The architectural design draws inspiration from Indigenous storytelling.</p>

<p>"The design is based on the indigenous motif of the Rainbow Serpent," Tony Owen Partners said in the Design Verification Statement.</p>

<p>"The Rainbow Serpent is a traditional totem of coastal eastern Australia. It represents natural forces, creation, change, and rebirth and is often associated with bodies of water. This motif can be seen in the undulation of the balconies rising on the building," Tony Owen Partners said in the Design Verification Statement.</p>

<p>Beyond the residential offering, the proposal seeks to revitalise the surrounding public realm, particularly Keevers Lane.</p>

<p>"The ground floor streetscape includes a commercial and dining precinct which will significantly improve the amenity of the area. This strategy transforms a currently inhospitable laneway into a thriving centre of urban renewal and day and night time activation to compliment the new adjoining UNC facilities," the architects said.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Ming Tian Real Property plans landmark affordable housing tower for Gosford city centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36b0ca6b-af15-424c-81db-9f3049c07b0c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Beane%20Street%20podium.png?VersionId=QCAv7bCitrg3zIGZUHI2z_HR8qVfKbp1" /></p>

<p>The Environmental Impact Statement notes that the project aims to "improve the provision of diverse housing options within Gosford City Centre, enhancing the mixed-use precinct by delivering high quality residential development, whilst concurrently providing a diverse range of housing choices through the provision of affordable housing, which is in growing need within the Gosford City Centre."</p>

<p>The site occupies approximately 2,070 sqm in the Gosford city centre, around 250 metres from Gosford Railway Station and within walking distance of Gosford Hospital, Mann Street's retail precinct and the University of Newcastle's Gosford campus currently under construction. The currently vacant site previously received approval for a lower-scale residential development, with the new proposal leveraging the NSW Government's in-fill affordable housing pathway to increase density while introducing dedicated affordable housing.</p>


First look: Rainbow Serpent inspires bold new Gosford apartment tower

<p>Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/bottega-property-group">Bottega House</a> has secured council approval for its first Brisbane project - a $270 million luxury residential development on an absolute riverfront site in leafy St Lucia.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The 15-storey project, known as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-lucia-by-bottega-house-180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">St Lucia by Bottega House</a> , will occupy a prime north-facing site at 178-180 Macquarie Street, directly fronting the Brisbane River in the established inner-west suburb known for its rowing clubs, golf courses and sprawling University of Queensland campus.&nbsp;</p>

<p>St Lucia by Bottega House will feature a suite of amenities including dedicated wellness spaces, a mineral pool and cold plunge. The project has been positioned to attract affluent owner-occupiers seeking high-quality, house-sized apartments.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House has been set up by co-directors Nick Malloch, Louis Mennes and Craig Marsh.</p>

<p>Malloch said the project drew inspiration from its Brisbane River setting and leafy inner-west surrounds, while responding to the demands of discerning locals looking to transition from freestanding homes into apartment living.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"With an expansive river frontage and lush green surrounds, we knew we had to create something special that reflects the natural beauty of the location while offering residents masterfully crafted homes," said Malloch.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Our intent was to complement the project's quiet, private setting by introducing residences that offer a calm retreat and sanctuary from the everyday. The result is a harmonious blend of architecture, interiors and amenity that emphasises wellbeing, comfort and beauty without excess."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Malloch added that project consultants had been carefully selected in alignment with Bottega House's commitment to care, quality and attention to detail. The design team includes architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>, interiors practice <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/urbis">Urbis</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Three-bedroom apartments are expected to start around $5 millio. Selling agents Keenan &amp; Byrne said the pricing strategy for the project was anticipated to achieve upwards of $25,500 per square metre.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The project's development approval this week follows the success of Bottega House's inaugural Queensland project - a 22-storey collection of full-floor sky homes at Broadbeach on the Gold Coast which included the sale of a two-storey penthouse at a record price for a beachside residence.&nbsp;</p>

<p>St Lucia by Bottega House is expected to launch to market in November, with construction anticipated to be completed mid 2029.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151826]</p>


Bottega House to make Brisbane debut with St Lucia riverfront apartment development

Housing Boom

<html><body>
<p>Citi says its sees property prices falling by as much as 7 percent as the housing boom unwinds by 2018.</p>
<p>Lending curbs will hit and household debt will be lowered, according to Citi, with the hardest hit potentially being apartments in inner-city Brisbane and Melbourne.</p>
<p>The forecast from Citi came in a 47-page analysis addressing tighter lending standards, higher lending rates, reduced foreign investment and increased supply relative to demand.</p>
<p>Sentiment towards real estate compared with lowering debt had "soured" even before the latest efforts by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to rein in lending to investors, according to the Citi analysts.</p>
<p>"APRA's tightening measures probably contributed to the April prices result, but Easter and school holidays may also have contributed to the slowdown," the Citi analysts wrote.</p>
<p>"Given the stretched house price valuations in Sydney and Melbourne some correction would seem likely as supply continues to catch up to demand.</p>
<p>"The largest price falls would be higher rise, inner city apartments in Brisbane and Melbourne given their greater potential for oversupply.</p>
<p>"Either way, we aren't expecting large enough price falls to trigger a downturn in the economy, but the downside risks have risen as house prices and household debt have continued to increase briskly."</p>
<p>The Citi modelling advised if APRA succeeds "ultimately we see some mild deleveraging, there could be a partial correction in house prices during the course of the next two years.</p>
<p>"This would be the case even if population growth remained strong."</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Inner Melbourne and Brisbane to be hardest hit as Citi sees property prices falling 7 percent

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<p class="p1">GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1">The continuing housing boom in Sydney and Melbourne has driven business confidence to a two year high in the latest <span class="s2"><em>National Survey of Building and Construction</em></span> for the March quarter 2017.</p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">But the most dominant picture emerging is of the growing disparity in activity and confidence between these markets and the rest of Australia. </span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">Western Australia's builders are doing it particularly tough with some Perth building businesses reporting that confidence is at its lowest in 30 years.</span></p>
<p class="p4">As we approach the May Federal Budget, this should reinforce to policy makers why 'sledgehammer' one-size-fits-all responses to housing affordability are extremely ill-advised. </p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">Overall, the residential building sector's record run has some way to go with the March quarter survey supporting an expectation of a high level of building activity to extend until the end of the year.   </span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">The survey also shows tentative signs of improvement for builders in the non-residential sector for the remainder of 2017 in line with expectations that the sector has reached the bottom of the cycle.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">Despite the non-residential activity index dipping below 50 and the national pipeline of non-residential work remaining unchanged, better approvals data supports a more positive outlook.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">Consistent with previous quarters, demand for labour continues to be dominated by the Sydney and Melbourne markets with pressures around availability of some trades reflecting conditions typical in a peaking cycle.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">But a new bright spot to emerge in the March quarter was the indication that the majority of South Australian builders intend to hire more staff in the next six months.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">It's a good sign for SA's builders and highlights the vital role the industry plays in building a stronger economy and stronger communitie</span></p>
<p class="p4"><em><span class="s1">Matthew Pollock, is national manager, housing, Master Builders Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://www.mbansw.asn.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
<p><span class="s1"> </span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Disparity in two speed housing market widens: Matthew Pollock

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<div>
<p>The current housing boom won't come unstuck until 2018, according to SQM Research founder Louis Christopher.</p>
<p>He was described by the Australian Financial Review as "arguably the country's most accurate forecaster."</p>
<p>"It is now very likely it will be a strong start to the new year for Sydney and Melbourne, given the way 2016 ended," Mr Christopher said.</p>
<p>He listed four reasons for the likely coninued growth as the continued low interest rate environment, strong Sydney and Melbourne economies, continued strong population growth and the supply side of the housing market.</p>
<p>The SQM forecaster expects capital city house prices to rise between six and 10 per cent this year, led by double-digit price growth in Sydney, Melbourne and possibly Hobart.</p>
<p>There will be single-digit growth in the other capital cities, apart from Perth and Darwin where he anticipates continued further falls.</p>
<p>Christopher believes both Sydney and Melbourne's housing markets will be "dangerously overheated and overvalued" by 2018.</p>
<p>"The market will sustain its current momentum and rise again in 2017 – 2018 may be well another matter."</p>
</div>
<div>Over the past two years, his predictions on capital city house price growth have been roughly in line with the Australian Bureau of Statistics's Residential Property Price Index.</div>
<div>
<p>Mr Christopher believes a number of key macro factors will continue to push up prices this year.</p>
<p>These, he said, include the current low interest rate environment, continued strong population growth especially in Sydney and Melbourne and – until very recently – a weak response to the supply side of the housing market.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>"We're getting around 90,000 new people coming to both Sydney and Melbourne every year.</p>
<p>"The Sydney and Melbourne economies have kept the country out of recession and there's a strong correlation between a city's economy and their housing market," Mr Christopher said.</p>
<p>His forecasts for 2017 are under a base case scenario of a steady economy, no changes to the cash rate, the Australian dollar hovering between 70¢ and 80¢ and no meddling in bank lending by the Australian Prudential Authority in the first six months of the year.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Christopher says if the Reserve Bank cuts the cash rate this year, then house price growth could be even greater. </p>
<p>SQM Research's Housing Boom and Bust Report, released in October 2015, forecast Australian dwelling prices to rise at between 3 and 8 per cent in 2016.</p>
<p>SQM forecast Sydney dwelling prices to rise by 4 to 9 per cent during 2016.</p>
<p>In Melbourne SQM's prediction of price growth was of 8 to 13 per cent.</p>
<p>Christopher acknowledges it was overly bullish on Brisbane, predicting growth of 5 to 8 per cent and was a bit too bearish on Canberra (2 to 4 per cent) but was quite accurate on its outlooks for Hobart (4 to 7 per cent) and Adelaide (2 to 5 per cent)</p>
<p>"It seems we did get most cities right and made the right call that Melbourne would be the out performer," Mr Christopher told the Australian Financial Review. "We copped a fair bit of stick over that one, particularly from the Macrobusiness guys who thought Melbourne would fall."</p>
</div>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

The four reasons why housing will boom again in 2017 in Melbourne and Sydney: SQM

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<p>Australia was potentially on the cusp of a "dramatic and destabilising" end to the housing boom because of the apartments building boom, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has suggested.</p>
<p>In its latest assessment of the threats to the economy, the Paris-based think tank went into few details, but added jitters over the federal election policy are adding to risks.</p>
<p>Analysis of the OECD's latest report by the Australian Financial Review commented that the OECD had paradoxically simultaneously noted that risks of a property boom appeared to be receding which provided leeway for even more official interest rate cuts.</p>
<p>"Domestically, the unwinding of housing market tensions to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing," it said.</p>
<p>The warning is accompanied by graphs showing dwelling approvals retreating from a peak and house prices levelling out. </p>
<p>Australia’s entire economy was vulnerable to the continued commodity price plunge too, the OECD warned.</p>
<p>Suggesting that the strong economic growth of the first three months of the year will not be maintained, the OECD forecast growth for Australia of 2.6 per cent this year, down from the 3.1 per cent over the year to March.</p>
<p>“Australia’s exposure to commodity-market developments, par­ticularly those linked to the Chinese economy, remains an important source of uncertainty and risk,” the OECD says in its latest economic outlook.</p>
<p>“The unwinding of tensions in the housing market to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing,” it advised.</p>
<p>The OECD's two-page analysis calls for “close vigilance” of the heavily leveraged housing market and suggests Labor’s negative gearing proposal had created uncertainty.</p>
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OECD warns of dramatic end to housing boom

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Australia's rebalancing act is well underway. Following the end of the mining boom, low interest rates and the lower AUD have supported a housing boom and, more recently, a strong pick-up in exports of tourism and education services. But challenges remain. </span></p>
<p><span>The housing boom is now cooling. Housing prices have levelled out over the past six months and building approvals have fallen over the past year. The end of the housing boom is set to weigh on growth, while the lift in housing debt, due to the boom, may increase the risks to financial stability, particularly as there has been a significant boost to housing supply. </span></p>
<p><span>We remain cautiously optimistic that the housing market will see a soft landing and that the lift in services exports will continue to create jobs, but there are risks around this central scenario. </span></p>
<p><span>Australia's mining investment boom peaked in 2012 and, since then, growth has needed to rebalance to being driven by something else. As regular readers will know, we have long been optimistic that this would occur. </span></p>
<p><span>The first stage of this process has been a housing price and construction boom. This has mostly been a positive story. By building more housing we have been working off an accumulated under supply of housing (Australia did not build many houses during the mining boom, which helped to keep wages and inflation contained during that episode). </span></p>
<p><span>But, as with all housing booms, they cannot continue indefinitely. If housing prices and construction continued to rise rapidly, there would eventually be a housing oversupply or a price bubble. There are now clear signs that Australia's housing market is cooling. Housing prices have tracked sideways since about October 2015, following previous double-digit growth. Sydney and Melbourne, where the housing boom has been centred, have seen flat housing prices in the past six months, following annual averages of 10 percent and 6 percent in the previous four years. The cooling has been driven by a collection of factors, including tighter prudential settings and the ramp up in new housing supply (which is meeting demand). </span></p>
<p><span>Our central case is for a soft landing. We see housing prices rising by 3-4 percent in 2016, following growth of 9 percent in 2015 (see </span><span>'Downunder Digest: Australia's housing market cools', 11 December 2015</span><span>). Housing construction is also expected to slow. Following a 0.5ppt contribution to GDP growth in 2015, housing construction is set to contribute about 0.2ppts to GDP growth in 2016 and to be a small drag on growth by 2017. </span></p>
<p><span>However, for the overall economy we expect this drag from housing construction to be offset by two key factors. First, services exports have been ramping up and we expect these to continue to contribute around 0.5ppts to GDP growth (see </span><span>'Downunder Digest: Services exports and the AUD', 30 March 2016</span><span>). Second, mining investment is set to be less of a drag on GDP growth in 2017, as the mining downturn matures. All up, we see the end of the housing boom as manageable, as the next stage of the rebalancing act sees growth transitioning to being led by the services sectors. </span></p>
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<p><span>But this is the central case and there are clearly some risks to the 'housing soft landing' central scenario. Here we focus on three. First, stoking a housing boom has driven housing prices higher and led to an increase in the household debt to income ratio from 167 percent to 186 percent over the past four years. Higher debts may have increased the risks to financial stability. </span></p>
<p><span>Second, there has also been a substantial ramp up in housing construction, particularly on apartments in the major cities, and there is a risk of over-supply in some of these markets. Third, and importantly, our central case assumes continued household income growth, supported by job creation in the services sectors, which helps to make the higher debts sustainable. A negative shock to income growth, most likely emanating from overseas, is a risk to the central scenario. </span></p>
<p><span>For each of the risks, there are also a number of mitigating factors. On the first risk, of higher housing prices and debts, our view remains that it is the allocation of debt that matters, not the absolute levels (see </span><span>'Downunder Digest: Australia's household debt: why we are not worried', 21 November 2013</span><span>). As long as the households that have taken on the debt can continue to service it, the debt is sustainable. In Australia's case, we believe the debt is fairly well allocated. In Australia there are no sub-prime loans, all loans are full-recourse, lending standards have been tightening recently, the bulk of the debt is held by higher income households and the average mortgage is over two years pre-paid, leaving many households with significant equity to withdraw if required. </span></p>
<p><span>On the second risk, of housing oversupply, our estimates show that this is not the national story, even though there are some clear pockets of over-building (see </span><span>'Downunder Digest: Australia's housing supply ramp up', 9 September 2015</span><span>). </span></p>
<p><span>In Sydney, where housing prices have risen by the most, our estimates suggest that there is still undersupply, which is likely to keep prices from falling.</span></p>
<p><span> In Melbourne, the apartment market appears oversupplied, but the detached housing market does not. For apartments, some have also been bought by foreign buyers with the likely intention to hold for a long period, as a store of value, rather than for speculation. In Perth and Brisbane there are some signs of oversupply of apartments, but not of detached dwellings. Neither of these markets has seen much housing price appreciation in recent years, potentially limiting the downside. </span></p>
<p><span>The third risk, of a fall in household incomes, is the hardest to guard against. Here, Australia fares comparatively well, but is not in as good shape as it was when the global financial crisis struck in 2008. The RBA still has a cash rate at 2.00 percent, which gives it room to cut further and government net debt is low, at 18 percent of GDP, giving the fiscal authorities more room to move than other countries. However, by comparison, the cash rate was 7.25 percent in mid-2008 and the government had a net asset position of 4 percent of GDP. </span></p>
<p><span>Finally, it is worth considering the appropriate policy response to these risks. In terms of financial stability, the prudential regulator is continuing to tighten standards to making the banking system 'unquestionably strong'. This has included raising bank capital requirements. This should help to further protect Australia's financial system. </span></p>
<p><span>In terms of protecting against weaker demand, the central bank could still cut its cash rate further (our central case is for a cut in Q2, partly to ensure the AUD remain competitive). A lower AUD (rather than one that is rising, as it has been recently), would also be helpful, as it would help to improve competitiveness and support jobs growth in the export industries. </span></p>
<p><span>Fiscal authorities could also help to support growth by further reform to support productivity growth and well-planned infrastructure investment, which would support demand and also improve productivity. We remain optimistic about Australia's growth outlook, but, as always, there remain risks to the central view. </span></p>
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<p><span><em><a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. </em></span></p>
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Navigating the end of the housing boom: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<div>Given the weak state of other sectors of the economy, the Retail Trade figures for the month and the June quarter took on an added significance.</div>
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<div>In this context, especially given soft wages and slowing population growth, the June data was happily very good.</div>
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<div>In seasonally adjusted terms retail turnover was up by 0.7 per cent for the month leading to a strong annual result to June 2015 as charted below.</div>
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<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rivhiKoFaUo/VcHqnRk1RpI/AAAAAAAAXXg/LMg9AYRe9MU/s1600/RT1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rivhiKoFaUo/VcHqnRk1RpI/AAAAAAAAXXg/LMg9AYRe9MU/s1600/RT1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rivhiKoFaUo/VcHqnRk1RpI/AAAAAAAAXXg/LMg9AYRe9MU/s640/RT1.jpg" width="640" height="272"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>At the state level the impact of Sydney's housing boom and to a lesser extent that of Melbourne is evident with retail turnover rising very strongly in New South Wales and Victoria.</div>
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<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-shpWGnWcZqo/VcHqoDxbUTI/AAAAAAAAXXw/BQGk6eE1D-Q/s1600/rt2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-shpWGnWcZqo/VcHqoDxbUTI/AAAAAAAAXXw/BQGk6eE1D-Q/s1600/rt2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-shpWGnWcZqo/VcHqoDxbUTI/AAAAAAAAXXw/BQGk6eE1D-Q/s640/rt2.jpg" width="640" height="270"></a></div>
<br><div>Perhaps more surprisingly, in turnover terms retail appears to have fired up a little elsewhere too, particularly in South Australia. </div>
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<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KN4Bjh9HqmY/VcHqoHUFBvI/AAAAAAAAXXs/GoRQd1PsoJk/s1600/rt3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Industry groups</span></strong><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It has been a relatively poor time for department stores retailing, perhaps reflective of increasing demand in the online shopping space.</div>
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<div class="separator">The big winner over the past year has been household goods with retail turnover pumped up by the housing prices and construction boom.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GEggBGfpMgY/VcHqnWJRVaI/AAAAAAAAXXc/wTRwGxQsAHg/s1600/Rt5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GEggBGfpMgY/VcHqnWJRVaI/AAAAAAAAXXc/wTRwGxQsAHg/s1600/Rt5.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GEggBGfpMgY/VcHqnWJRVaI/AAAAAAAAXXc/wTRwGxQsAHg/s640/Rt5.jpg" width="640" height="270"></a></div>
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<span><span>Cafés</span>, restaurants </span>and takeaway expenditure has also continued to rise relentlessly over the past year, a trend which has been ongoing over the past decade, another shift which feeds off increased apartment dwelling.</div>
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<div class="post-body entry-content"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJLrK-Q2toQ/VcHqnU2X9ZI/AAAAAAAAXXk/X8z5SQvVElQ/s1600/Rt6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJLrK-Q2toQ/VcHqnU2X9ZI/AAAAAAAAXXk/X8z5SQvVElQ/s1600/Rt6.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJLrK-Q2toQ/VcHqnU2X9ZI/AAAAAAAAXXk/X8z5SQvVElQ/s640/Rt6.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">National accounts for Q2</span></strong><br><br><div>With June being the last month of the second quarter we also got the turnover figures reported in volume terms, which threw out an excellent result.</div>
<br><div>Retail volumes doubled market expectations to be up by 0.8 per cent for the quarter and 3.6 per cent for the year. </div>
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<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s1600/rt4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s1600/rt4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s640/rt4.jpg" width="640" height="286"></a><br><br><div>I used to do a chart here on quarterly volumes at the state level, but to be frank it's a Sunday morning and believe it or not I actually have better things to do!</div>
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<div>Suffice to say that New South Wales (+4.6 per cent) and Victoria (+4.4 per cent) have been the retail trade linchpins over the year to June 2015.</div>
<br>This is a very notable result given that net exports (which have contributed significantly to GDP over the past year) will evidently not been doing so in the second quarter.<br><br>I looked at how Australia racked up a record trade deficit for the second quarter in a little more detail here.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Overall this was a really good result for retail trade in the second quarter.</div>
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<div>And although the retail trade data is not necessarily representative of all household consumption this suggests that GDP for the second quarter will be held up by the strong capital city economies.</div>
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<div>Lately various surveys have hinted at gradually improving business conditions and confidence - and jobs growth has been strong over the past year at +233,600, particularly so in Sydney.</div>
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<div>On the other hand capital expenditure surveys have pointed towards very weak business investment.</div>
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<br>In that context, it is important that household consumption continues to produce sound results.</div>
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<div>The other contributor to a surprisingly upbeat GDP print in the first quarter (ex-inventories) was that of new housing, with the dwelling construction boom expected to continue over the next couple of years.</div>
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<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y0n0iSGst2w/VW7aRC8nfwI/AAAAAAAAV1A/jrn7C21AbNY/s640/gdp6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y0n0iSGst2w/VW7aRC8nfwI/AAAAAAAAV1A/jrn7C21AbNY/s640/gdp6.jpg" width="640" height="275"></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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